© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Consumer Scenarios Towards 2008 The Copenhagen Institute for Futures

© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Consumer ScenariosTowards 2008

The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies www.cifs.dk


Megatrends: ”Certainties”

Globalisation

Knowledge society

Individualisation

Network organisations

IT / Digitising

Acceleration, 24 hour society

Commercialisation

Values, health, environment

Wealth

Demographics

Bio-technology


Future = Uncertainty

• ONE WAY to work with the future uncertainties: Scenarios

• A description of a possible future• and/or

• A description of the ”history” to a possible future

• Scenarios do NOT reduce uncertainty– but may give a ”handle” on it

• Scenarios: Change to different ”mind set” forces new ideas, gives inspiration, – patterns & contrasts may become more clear


Scenarios by crossing uncertainties

Purpose: Create four scenarios for workshop

In real life: Variations in products, functions, phases of life, situations, cultures, and value systemsMore scenarios...

Basis today: Five ”uncertainties” pre-selected by the CIFS


Scenario 1 Scenario 2


One way to create four scenarios:Crossing two uncertainty axes


Uncertainties - Intermediate Term

• Mobility

• Individualisation

• Emotion

• Technology acceptance

• Homogenisation

• Anchoring

• Community

• Function

• Technology aversion

• Polarisation

1) We choose 2 of these (2 votes each) 2) CIFS has prepared a set of scenarios based on the selected axes3) You work with these scenarios in the workshop


Mobility versus Anchoring

• Mobility

• Drivers: Globalisation, Digitalisation, Specialisation

• Values: Change and Flexibility

• Specialised places - you have to go there to be part of it

• Multitasking, zapping

• Anchoring

• Stress, lack of identity, more elderly, ”risk society”

• Stability, structures

• Multi-functional places - almost everything may be done from home

• Multitasking - or anchoring of time use in a set of rules ?


Individualisation vs. Community


• Drivers: Commercialisation, specialisation, IT, mobility

• Values: Atomistic. Me, myself, I.

• Consumer: (Private), personal, situation-dependent

• Politics: Your own responsibility

• Community

• Lack of identity, feeling of uncertainty, change

• Holistic. Finding identity in the group

• (Public). Group consumption, in groups you’ve selected or been born into

• Politics: Social consequences, ”political consumer”, express communal values


Emotion versus Function

• Emotion

• Drivers: Economic growth

• Values: Attention, symbolic values

• Markets: Adventures, identity, comfort, opinions, complexity

• Service: Empathy, dreams

• Time: Valuable in itself

• Function

• Drivers: Stagnation/recession

• Values: Efficiency, technical focus

• Markets: Usefulness, value for money, convenience, safety

• Service: Competence, information

• Time: A cost


Technology acceptance / aversion

• Acceptance

• Drivers: Problem solutions, comfort, excitement !

• Values: Change, usefulness

• Fast digitalisation

• Biotech is great

• Production: Industrial, automated, ”artificial”

• Aversion

• Fear, uncertainty, doubt, lack of confidence, risk to own positions

• God, Nature, and Stability rules

• Slow digitalisation

• Biotech regulated strongly

• Production: Manual, ”Natural” wherever possible. ”No change” in many industrial products


Polarisation vs. Homogenisation

• Polarisation

• Drivers: Market does not equalise, no level playing field

• Values: Differences foster growth

• Wealth: Highly unequal distrib.

• Political values: Extremes

• Consumers: Clearly segmented by income groups

• Homogenisation

• Market and/or welfare state works, ethics

• Large differences are unethical

• Relatively equal distrib. of wealth

• Center politics

• Consumers segmented by non-economic criteria (culture, values)


Uncertainties - Intermediate Term

• Mobility


• Emotion


• Homogenisation

• Anchoring

• Community

• Function


• Polarisation



Axis 2

Axis 1



Workshop: 4 scenarios, 4 groups


e.g.

Community

e.g. Anchoring



e.g. Mobility

e.g.

Individualisation

Workshop: 4 scenarios, 4 groups


Uncertainties - intermediate termWhich uncertainties are most important to the company (related to Future Consumers?


• Mobility


• Emotion


• Homogenisation

• Anchoring

• Community

• Function


• Polarisation


Click to reach the relevant ”scenario grid”

1 Mobilityversus Anchoring

2 Individualisation versus Community

3 Emotionversus Function

4 Tech acceptancancevs. Tech aversion

5 Polarisation vs. Homogenisation

Mobility Individualisation Emotion Tech acceptance Polarisation Anchoring Community Function Tech aversion Homogenisation

1 2 3

5 61

5 82

6 83

4

7

9

10

107 94


anchoring

individualisation

community

mobility

Scenario grid #1 Individualisation-community / anchoring-mobility

Me and my home Self realisation - ego-focusThe home is developed (=me)Rest of world: via the web

Travel - Go for itSpecialised labour marketMetropoles in focus (silicon valley)City nomads, body & wear focus(personal branding)

Clans foreverLoyalty, relations, familyNorms, rituals, traditions”home-parties” ...

Clubs, clubs & clubsSocial individualists, ”situids”mobile, mirroring in others ...roleplaying communities, niches

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anchoring

emotion

function

mobility

Scenario grid #2 Emotion-function / anchoring-mobility

Roots Meaning through everyday lifeSlow Food and Slow CitiesLocal markets rather than mallsSymbolic values in architecture

To travel is to liveAdventures and experiencesCompeting on differencesTravel to learn or improve healthLimited traditional construction

The power of habitsSafety and predictabilityE-business, video conferencesMultifunctional buildingsMove goods rather than people

Creative destructionWithout mobility, no developmentNew methods replace old routinesInspiration from other culturesGlobal convergence, world citzens

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anchoring

technology acceptance

technology aversion

mobility

Scenario grid #3Tech acceptance - tech aversion / anchoring-mobility

My home is my castleWhy move ?Virtual reality, broadbandhomeshopping, telework, …

IT nomads

”Virtual home environment”, wearable, always-on, has it allPublic space is in focus, the home an overnight parking place

Need for limits

No borders = chaos & painFocus: Nearness, originsFixed patterns of life

Seeking authenticity

VR is a second best solution!Life: To experience the world, people, beauty, places, ...

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anchoring

polarisation

homogenisation

mobility

Scenario grid #4Homogenisation-polarisation / anchoring-mobility

Gated communitiesGhettoes & luxury ghettoesPolarised labour marketInsecurity => tele-shopping etc.

The winner takes allSilicon Valley, Hollywood, LondonStar Economy. ”Be there and be part of it - or die”

All are close & alikeGlocal life via the webAvoid concentration of people, money, power, ...Middle class in focus

European integrationMobile labour market => egalisationEU ensures total mobility: capital,persons, educations, knowledge,...

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individua-lisation

emotion

function

community

Scenario grid #5 Emotion-function / individualisation-community

Brand yourself Dream society - realise yourselfMaximise existence, be a starFight for the best education/jobDon’t retire, rewire. Be unique

Economic manTailor-made functionality for eachCompetent, engaged customersValue chains must be certifiedLimited branding, digital agents

Stakeholder societyCommunity for practical reasonsPublic services must be functionalRisk society - the system must workEducation and health are expensive

Value communitesDream society - create storiesFocus on values and togethernessBe attentive, polite, politically correctRituals, ’new traditions’, community

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individua-lisation


technology aversion

community

Scenario grid #6 Tech acceptance-aversion / individualisation-community

Neo-darwinismMan before Robot !The unique, the hand madeValues ! Develop man ! (technology isn’t sexy)

Create it yourselftechnology gives freedom !Victory of the individual, e-learning, empowerment, ...

Connecting people”Working together gives strength”Developing knowledge togetherSharing, car-pools etc.Transparency, more politics

Cultural revolutionReaction: Eco-communesthe personal, near. Productive co-operationin practice. People. Happiness.

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individua-lisation

polarisation

homogenisation

community

Scenario grid #7 homogenisation-polarisation / individualisation-community

Brand yourselfSuper-liberal ”Star economy”Experiences: Everything is show-businessEverything is up to you !

Corporate governanceDivided society, but:Good service in good companies!Lifestyle-communities & ghettosMarginalised: Barter economy

Managed competitionPrivate initiative in vogue. Public services: Run by private sector.Welfare state egalisesTaxes & subsidies help equality

Equality & brotherhoodMore elderly & immigrants:High public service - if you ”fit in”Low growth: New demands on the state …

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tech accept.

emotion

function

tech aversion

Scenario grid #8 Emotion-function / tech acceptance-tech aversion

Dreams unlimited Technology facilitates adventureScience defeats sickness, deathToy-size elephants, puppies thatnever grow up, robot servants

Easier, better, cheaperTechnology wins in the long runBiotech, digitech, robotechNew economy, low unemploym.Lack of labour in health sector

We have what we needWhat do we gain from technology?Opaque risks, why take chances?Make what we have work first.We want decent food and homes.

High touchHigh touch before high technologyNature is sacred, tech must retreatOrganic foods, animal welfareRisk society supports dream society

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homogenisation

emotion

function

polarisation

Scenario grid #9 Emotion-function / homogenisation-polarisation

Doing well by doing good

Too much inequality is distastefulIntegration is ethically correctGiving comfort is a human needCorporate social responsibility

A stitch in timeBasic needs satisfied (Maslow)Emotional needs can’t be boughtEquality prevents crime/diseaseService replaces consumption

Only do what you do bestPolarisation promotes motivationExtreme specialisation creates valueMakers and shakers - and servicersLow unemployment, wide wage span

No free lunchArt/culture commercialised. TanstaaflThe skilled and lucky are favouredImmater. poverty worse than materialLivestyle ailments, big health sector

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Homogenisation


technology aversion

polarisation

Scenario grid #10 Tech acceptance-tech aversion / homogenisation-polarisation

Knowledge is freetechnology => transparancyNo monopolies in knowledge,public good - free for all(free drugs for Africa too)

Equality everywhere”toBit tax” on new technology ”Democratic technology” OK ?Low growth, unemployment,but: Work in welfare sector

Let it go - free for allEverybody wins - in the long run ...Short term-monopoly: Necessary evilMore ”Microsofts”Wealthy are ”medically enhanced”

FundamentalismTools can be used - or abused.Hackers, religious fundamentalistsfight IT, bio-technology etc.Basic civil rights under threat

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A set of scenarios chosen...Group workshop

There are many global scenarios, many consumer scenarios, many possible future environments.

There are many possibilities in each possible scenario - it’s a matter of strategy - positioning, innovation, ...

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Documents

© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Consumer Scenarios Towards 2008 The Copenhagen Institute for Futures