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COMMODITY FUTURESPeak minerals, technology & future scenariosDamien GiurcoInstitute for Sustainable Futures – University of Technology, Sydney
Mackay16 June 2010
mineral futures collaboration cluster
Peak oil – Hubbert curve
Source: adapted from Hubbert, 1956
EnergyServices
Peak minerals metaphor: from easy/cheap to complex/expensive
Source: adapted from Giurco et al. 2010, Peak minerals in Australia
time
Ann
ual n
atio
nal p
rodu
ctio
n (t
) lower costs/impacts*higher ore gradesshallower mines
simple oreslow mine waste
higher costs/impacts*lower ore grades
deeper minescomplex /refractory ores
more mine waste
*costs and impacts are social, economic, environmental
year of peak production
Ore grades declining: Copper & Nickel
Source: Mudd, 2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1885 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005
Met
al O
re G
rade
(%Cu
, %Ni
)Australia (%Cu)Canada (%Cu)Australia (%Ni)Canada (%Ni)USA (%Cu)
Energy consumption in mining: rising intensity
Peak minerals:Copper - Australia
Source: Mudd and Ward 2008
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
2.4
1825 1875 1925 1975 2025 2075 2125 2175
Ann
ual C
oppe
r Pro
duct
ion
(Mt C
u)Actual
Modelled
AUSTRALIA
Peak minerals:Gold- Australia
Source: Mudd and Ward 2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1825 1875 1925 1975 2025 2075 2125 2175
Ann
ual G
old
Pro
duct
ion
(t A
u)Actual
Modelled
AUSTRALIA
Multiple peaks:Gold- Australia
Source: J. Laherrere
Peak minerals:what role for technology?
Source: Peak Minerals in Australia: a review of changing impacts and benefits, 2010
time
Annu
al p
rodu
ctio
n (t
)
higher gradeslower costs
lower gradeshigher costs
Incremental technological development
Futuretechnological development & uptake
To position the minerals industry within a sustainable economy:1. Technological advances2. Structures for long term decision making3. Australia as mineral services hub4. Impacts balanced by better distribution of wealth
Source - Mineral Futures Discussion Paper: Sustainability Issues, Challenges and Opportunities, 2009
2. Extraction & Processing
Technologies
3. Use: Level of Service &
Value
4. Consumption Rates & Patterns
1. Resource(minerals,
ocean nodules, metal scrap)
Mineral Resources Landscape
Mineral Resources Landscape
Mineral Resources Landscape
Giurco et al, 2010 Australasian Journal of Environmental Management (submitted)
2. Extraction & Processing
Technologies
3. Use: Level of Service &
Value
4. Consumption Rates & Patterns
1. Resource(minerals,
ocean nodules, metal scrap)
Environmental Constraintsand Peak Minerals
Corporate social responsibility& Social Licence to Operate
Industry consolidation
Mineral Resources Landscape
Mineral Resources Landscape
Mineral Resources Landscape
Giurco et al, 2010 Australasian Journal of Environmental Management (submitted)
2. Extraction & Processing
Technologies
3. Use: Level of Service &
Value
4. Consumption Rates & Patterns
1. Resource(minerals,
ocean nodules, metal scrap)
Sustainability weak or strong
Dematerialisation
Environmental Constraintsand Peak Minerals
Corporate social responsibility& Social Licence to Operate
Industry consolidation
Mineral Resources Landscape
Mineral Resources Landscape
Mineral Resources Landscape
Giurco et al, 2010 Australasian Journal of Environmental Management (submitted)
2. Extraction & Processing
Technologies
3. Use: Level of Service &
Value
4. Consumption Rates & Patterns
1. Resource(minerals,
ocean nodules, metal scrap)
Sustainability weak or strong
Dematerialisation
Environmental Constraintsand Peak Minerals
Corporate social responsibility& Social Licence to Operate
Industry consolidation
Mineral Resources Landscape
Climate change risks
Constrained inputsPeak Oil and Water
Metal ‘service provision’
Governance for sustainability
Mineral Resources Landscape
Research Summary
Peak minerals- How does peak minerals change impacts/benefits? How do we respond?- Quantitative modelling of case studies (Fe, Cu, Ni, Au, Li)- Role for technology, transition planning, new business models
Future scenarios- How can Australia deliver long term
benefit from mineral resources?- Multi-stakeholder process for
national scenario development (2010)- How will it impact regions? (2011)
Let’s talk more.....
Contact [email protected] Tel: 02 9514 4978Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTShttp://www.isf.uts.edu.au
AcknowledgementThis work is supported by the Minerals Futures Collaboration Cluster, within the CSIRO Minerals Down Under Flagship.http://www.csiro.au/partnerships/mineral-futures-collaboration-cluster.html
Thank you to our ISF team: Dr Tim Prior, Prof Stuart White, Dr Chris RiedyJane Daly, Leah Mason, Reza Memary and at Monash: Dr Gavin Mudd, Steve Moh
http://www.resourcefutures.net.au
SBS World News – Feature on Peak Mineralshttp://www.sbs.com.au/news/specialcoverage/152/Metal-Matters
