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Quarterly Real Estate Report Q2 2014 A Member of Real Living

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Pacific Union Luxury Real Estate Q2 2014 Quarterly Report

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Page 1: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Quarterly Real Estate ReportQ2 2014

A Member of Real Living

Page 2: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final
Page 3: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Three Reasons Why This Housing Cycle Is Not a Bubble 4

Bay Area Job, Population Growth Will Continue to

Fuel Housing Demand 6

Contra Costa County 8

East Bay 12

Marin County 16

Napa County 20

San Francisco 24

Silicon Valley 32

Sonoma County 38

Sonoma Valley 42

Tahoe/Truckee 46

Table of Contents

Page 4: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Three Reasons Why This Housing Cycle Is Not a BubbleBay Area real estate values, fundamentals, and “noise” continue to be hot topics at social gatherings and client meetings. Does this cycle resemble the dot-com era bubble? Can the pace and valuations we are seeing continue?

While supply and demand are very basic and scalable market dynamics, I do believe it is important to separate the pace of sales from valuations. In terms of sales volume, the market’s current pace still displays somewhat of a “slingshot” effect from constrained demand as a result of the 2008 equities-market meltdown. Buyers sought safety on the sidelines for three or four years, but in the last 24 months, demand has been ferocious.Although we anticipate Bay Area sales volume will experience year-over-year growth of less than 5 percent by 2016 and 2017, slowing demand will not relax pricing.

The following three fundamentals are currently driving Bay Area real estate markets:

1. Supply constraints: Our region has limited land available for new housing development.

2. Exceptional job growth: Northern California enjoys the hottest employment market in the U.S., with intellectually challenging, highly sought-after, and lucrative jobs. (See our feature story below for more on our region’s economic outlook.)

3. Population growth: The chart below illustrates that population growth across our nine-county region has exceeded new housing supply by an average of nearly 200 percent in four years.

Each of the market dynamics listed above generally has very positive impacts on residential real estate. I doubt there is another major U.S. market that is experiencing and enjoying the combination of all three of these factors.

On a global stage, the Bay Area trails New York City, London, Hong Kong, and Beijing on a dollar-per-square-foot valuation perspective. Over the next five years, look for our region’s real estate prices to meet the aforementioned international markets.

A few years ago I attended a Bay Area real estate conference where Leslie Appleton-Young, vice president and chief economist of the California Association of Realtors, spoke. When asked about the best time to invest in California real estate, Leslie replied, “I’ve been answering that question for 30 years, and my answer has always been ‘five years ago.’”

If I am not mistaken, Warren Buffet said, “Buy all the real estate you can,” in a 2009 television interview. I suspect we will all feel the same way in 2019 when we look back at today’s market.

Mark A. McLaughlin, CEO, Pacific Union

Please remember to seek out local news, trend analysis, and expert advice for your real estate decisions.

County Population Growth: 2010-2014 Housing Growth: 2010-2014 Type

Alameda 4.2% 1.3% UndersupplyContra Costa 3.6% 1.4% UndersupplyMarin 1.4% 0.4% UndersupplyNapa 2.0% 0.7% UndersupplySan Francisco 3.9% 1.3% UndersupplySan Mateo 3.7% 0.9% UndersupplySanta Clara 4.9% 2.0% UndersupplySolano 2.6% 1.3% UndersupplySonoma 1.4% 1.0% Balanced

Source: California Department of Finance

Bay Area Population Growth Versus Housing-Supply Growth: 2010-2014

Page 5: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Bay Area 10-Year OverviewHere’s a look at home sales in the Bay Area’s real estate markets in the second quarter of 2014, with a glance back at the 10 preceding second quarters.

Click here to see specific 10-year data on key cities in the Bay Area.

REGION Q2 '04 Q2 '05 Q2 '06 Q2 '07 Q2 '08 Q2 '09 Q2 '10 Q2 '11 Q2 '12 Q2 '13 Q2 '14

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY 3,702 3,475 2,779 2,026 2,542 3,518 3,273 3,141 3,403 2,977 2,799

EAST BAY 881 892 814 749 613 556 681 676 810 823 781

MARIN COUNTY 912 799 665 684 494 440 574 555 680 786 764

NAPA COUNTY 476 434 317 279 247 307 336 356 419 374 350

SAN FRANCISCO (SFH) 817 785 746 600 655 557 674 685 726 746 609

SAN FRANCISCO (CONDOS) 747 720 589 645 533 370 565 578 737 760 738

SILICON VALLEY 1,046 869 806 793 621 533 617 738 781 770 724

SONOMA COUNTY 1,893 1,791 1,245 1,001 1,143 1,282 1,249 1,175 1,484 1,458 1,268

SONOMA VALLEY 199 197 125 113 97 123 136 121 176 174 160

TAHOE/TRUCKEE (SFH) 336 272 215 183 160 151 200 210 268 291 268

TAHOE/TRUCKEE (CONDOS) 104 116 73 82 35 28 62 82 88 71 75Copyright © Pacific Union. Source: BrokerMetrics / Terradatum, Inc. using data from SFARMLS, EBRD, BAREIS, MLSLSTINGS, TSIERRA, July 7, 2014.

Bay Area: 10-Year Overview of Q2 Homes Sold

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Bay Area Job, Population Growth Will Continue to Fuel Housing DemandThe Bay Area’s tech-industry-driven economy continues to add extremely

desirable and high-paying jobs, attracting talented workers from

around the nation and globe. But even though our region’s phenomenal

economic growth likely will begin to slow over the next couple of years,

intense demand for housing is almost certainly here to stay thanks to a

pronounced lack of available homes.

“We’re getting closer to full employment,” says Stephen Levy, director

and senior economist of Palo Alto-based Center for Continuing Study of

the California Economy. “And what that means is that as we near full employment, that’s going to bring in

people, which will add to the housing demand.”

May statistics from the California Employment Development Department show that each one of our Bay

Area counties boasts an unemployment rate lower than the statewide average of 7.6 percent. Job growth

remains particularly strong in Marin, Napa, San Francisco, and San Mateo counties, all of which have

unemployment rates of less than 5 percent.

Levy believes that the Bay Area’s unemployment rate will never return to dot-com-era lows, when it hovered

in the 2 to 3 percent range in San Francisco and Silicon Valley. However, he forecasts that even though

job growth will level off over the next two years, the Bay Area will continue to outperform the rest of the

country.

Population Growth Outpacing New Housing in Key Markets

Since the U.S. began to emerge from the Great Recession in 2010, the Bay Area’s population rate has

jumped sizably, according to California Department of Finance data. Over the past four years, the number of

residents in San Francisco and San Mateo counties has grown by nearly 4 percent while increasing by almost

5 percent in Santa Clara County.

But none of those counties has built enough new housing units to keep up with the expanding populace.

Since 2010, new housing has grown by just 2 percent in Santa Clara County, 1.3 percent in San Francisco, and

0.9 percent in San Mateo County.

“Peninsula prices and rents will continue to outpace the state and national average unless we see a dramatic

increase in supply, and even then it would be snapped up pretty quickly,” Levy says.

Page 7: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Economic Climate Much More Stable Than in Dot-Com Days

As was the case in the dot-com boom and subsequent bust, the tech industry remains the primary driver of

Bay Area employment growth. However, Levy believes that our current economy is far less frenetic than it

was 15 years ago.

“I think it’s quite different,” he says. “These are real companies, and they have customers, profits, and

burgeoning sales. The dot-com era was more about business plans.”

Still, technology companies aren’t the only businesses fueling Bay Area job growth. Other industries,

including hospitality, health care, and construction, are seeing employment upticks, Levy says. However, he

cautions that tremendous growth in the Internet sector could eventually slow expansion in other industries,

including brick-and-mortar retail and financial services.

While the Bay Area’s economic outlook appears solid for the foreseeable future, the housing shortage may

eventually impede growth, as workers could become wary of relocating to an area where finding a home is

so difficult. Therefore, new construction remains a crucial factor in keeping our region’s economy moving

upward and onward.

“I think [our economy] will always grow, but absolutely, housing poses a constraint to our growth over the

long term,” Levy says. “The lack of housing could take some of the bloom off of the rose and limit some of

the growth that might otherwise be there.”

Page 8: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Ellen AndersonSenior Vice President, Contra Costa [email protected] Sycamore Valley Road West | Danville, CA 94526

Contra Costa CountyQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ2 2014

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Contra Costa County: Q2 ResultsAfter many months of frustratingly low inventory levels, Pacific Union’s Contra Costa County region saw a significant increase in the supply of available homes for sale in the second quarter. Having regained equity in their homes, sellers made the decision to move during the quarter, some in order to be in their next homes before their children start school in the fall.

Home prices rose by double digits from a year ago, and properties generally sold slightly above their list prices. That’s good news for sellers, but it pushed some first-time buyers out of the market. Being outbid time and again in multiple-offer situations also discouraged some buyers, although the increase in inventory has tempered the frenetic pace of bidding we saw in 2013. In the second quarter, many homes attracted a handful of offers – not the dozen or more that were commonplace last year.

Looking Forward: Real estate activity typically slows during the summer, and the third quarter of 2014 will be no different. Home prices will continue to rise moderately through the end of the year, and a steady increase in inventory will reduce the instances of multiple offers, though the most desirable homes will continue to spark bidding wars.

Defining Contra Costa County: Our real estate markets in Contra Costa County include the cities of Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Contra Costa Countypacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Median Sales Price

Months’ Supply of Inventory

$947,500 $912,091 $925,000 $904,000

$871,250 $897,500 $920,000 $860,000

$931,500

$1,032,475 $1,002,500

$1,050,000

$980,000

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

$1,100,000

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Contra Costa County communities:

Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.

1.4 1.6

1.5

2.0

1.8

1.5 1.3

2.1 2.3

1.7 1.6

1.5 1.4

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.

Page 10: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Contra Costa Countypacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Average Days on the Market

19 21 22 22

30 28

37 38

30

23

18 18

24

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

100.4% 100.3% 100.0%

99.0% 98.4%

98.0% 97.3% 97.4%

100.2% 100.1%

101.8% 102.1%

100.2%

94%

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

100%

101%

102%

103%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract

36.1% 34.7% 31.7%

26.6%

33.4% 31.4%

24.6%

31.3% 35.3%

40.9% 39.2% 39.6% 41.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.

Page 11: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

A Closer Look at Contra Costa County

Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change

Alamo 109,667,738$ 105,196,975$ -4% 82 65 -21% 40 26 -35% 1,258,750$ 1,410,000$ 12%

Blackhawk 49,766,950$ 56,718,475$ 14% 29 33 14% 58 46 -21% 1,495,000$ 1,637,125$ 10%

Danville 222,956,498$ 227,901,847$ 2% 213 190 -11% 20 18 -10% 955,000$ 1,097,500$ 15%

Diablo 5,249,194$ 9,541,000$ 82% 3 4 33% 34 30 -12% 1,500,000$ 2,507,500$ 67%

Lafayette 131,488,464$ 143,610,230$ 9% 106 98 -8% 19 18 -5% 1,148,525$ 1,207,500$ 5%

Moraga 44,208,075$ 55,953,190$ 27% 38 43 13% 20 18 -10% 1,130,000$ 1,236,000$ 9%

Orinda 116,420,650$ 119,744,414$ 3% 87 81 -7% 22 23 5% 1,234,000$ 1,300,000$ 5%

PleasantHill 67,962,150$ 63,675,752$ -6% 115 99 -14% 13 23 77% 599,000$ 610,000$ 2%

San Ramon 213,005,146$ 223,404,957$ 5% 240 227 -5% 12 16 33% 859,500$ 930,000$ 8%

Walnut Creek 158,378,822$ 114,081,060$ -28% 182 123 -32% 20 18 -10% 800,000$ 870,000$ 9%

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in selected Contra Costa County cities.

Contra Costa County Snapshot: Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

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Page 12: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Pam HoffmanSenior Vice President, Managing Broker, East Bay [email protected] Mountain Boulevard | Oakland, CA 94611

East BayQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ2 2014

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East Bay: Q2 ResultsEven with a noticeable and welcome increase in inventory, demand continued to outstrip the supply of available homes for sale in Pacific Union’s East Bay region during the second quarter of 2014. The majority of homes on the market garnered multiple offers, particularly those in the most desirable neighborhoods. Overall, however, the number of offers and the pace of bidding slowed somewhat in the last half of the quarter.

Home prices continued to rise during the quarter, with those in the $500,000-to-$1 million range attracting the most attention from buyers. The most competitive neighborhoods were those rated the most walkable near BART, restaurants, and shops.

Besides offering new options to frustrated buyers, the increase in listings suggests that sellers have regained equity in their homes and are optimistic that they can successfully trade up to their next property.

Looking Forward: The East Bay remains an attractive destination for homebuyers priced out of the superheated San Francisco market. Even with an expected seasonal slowdown in the summer months – a consequence of school breaks and summer vacations – we expect continued strong sales throughout 2014.

Defining the East Bay: Our real estate markets in the East Bay region include Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705; Alameda; Albany; Berkeley; El Cerrito; Kensington; and Piedmont. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

East Baypacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Median Sales Price

Months’ Supply of Inventory

$740,000 $735,000 $741,500 $722,500 $730,000 $730,000 $700,000 $713,750 $725,000 $760,000

$812,000 $817,000 $840,000

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes in the East Bay.

1.3 1.3 1.3

2.0

1.6

1.1

0.9

2.0 2.0

1.4

1.2 1.1 1.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the East Bay.

Page 14: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

East Baypacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Average Days on the Market

18 20

25

22 21

25

32 33

28

25

20 22 22

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in the East Bay.  

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

110.0% 108.6%

107.0% 108.7% 108.3%

106.8%

104.1%

100.8%

106.1%

109.4%

113.3% 111.8%

109.4%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

104%

106%

108%

110%

112%

114%

116%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract

40.7% 37.4% 35.8%

30.4%

37.0% 38.2%

28.2% 31.5%

36.7%

43.5% 44.2% 47.4% 46.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.  

Page 15: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

A Closer Look at the East Bay

Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change

Alameda 72,061,423$ 77,096,483$ 7% 101 86 -15% 16 21 31% 716,885$ 808,500$ 13%

Albany 18,407,500$ 22,982,000$ 25% 25 28 12% 20 14 -30% 705,000$ 776,000$ 10%

Berkeley 122,887,382$ 159,755,925$ 30% 133 145 9% 17 20 18% 818,000$ 885,000$ 8%

El Cerrito 42,259,010$ 50,367,288$ 19% 69 66 -4% 20 23 15% 605,000$ 705,750$ 17%

Kensington 15,148,225$ 21,498,024$ 42% 18 22 22% 18 21 17% 834,063$ 832,630$ 0%

Oakland* 341,993,525$ 327,628,507$ -4% 435 371 -15% 20 23 15% 740,000$ 790,000$ 7%

Piedmont 69,193,743$ 125,934,725$ 82% 42 63 50% 16 17 6% 1,531,000$ 1,750,000$ 14%

East Bay Snapshot: Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in selected East Bay cities; *Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705.

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change

Under $500,000 51,595,900$ 27,359,803$ -47% 134 67 -50% 27 34 26% 401,500$ 430,000$ 7%

Over $500,000 630,354,908$ 757,903,149$ 20% 689 714 4% 17 20 18% 800,000$ 852,500$ 7%

$500,000 - $1 million 377,632,107$ 339,075,212$ -10% 513 457 -11% 17 19 12% 735,000$ 749,000$ 2%

Over $1 million 252,722,801$ 418,827,937$ 66% 176 257 46% 17 21 24% 1,309,000$ 1,400,000$ 7%

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Data is for SFH in the East Bay: Alameda, Albany, Berkeley, El Cerrito, Kensington, Piedmont, and Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705.

East Bay Price Range Snapshot: Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change

Montclair / Joaquin Miller 103 82 -20% $897,631 $1,068,483 19%

Crocker Highlands / Grand Lake 49 39 -20% $824,878 $930,629 13%

Rockridge / Claremont 71 49 -31% $1,166,861 $1,411,029 21%

Glenview / Oakmore 30 30 0% $817,530 $891,866 9%

Laurel / Dimond 27 32 19% $465,981 $546,632 17%

Redwood Heights / Lincoln Heights 40 37 -8% $680,837 $664,700 -2%

Crestmont / Ridgemont / Skyline 11 14 27% $973,000 $1,099,464 13%

Temescal / Piedmont Ave. 13 11 -15% $664,600 $816,004 23%

Oakland Snapshot: Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013

NeighborhoodHomes Sold Average Price

Source: EBRD, July 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in selected Oakland neighborhoods.

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Page 16: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Brent ThomsonPresident, Marin [email protected] Redwood Highway, Suite 150 | Mill Valley, CA 94941

Marin CountyQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ2 2014

Page 17: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Marin County: Q2 ResultsSecond-quarter real estate activity in Pacific Union’s Marin County region was, in a word, phenomenal. Buyers were eager and plentiful, and sellers – motivated by steadily rising home prices and restored equity over the past year – increasingly made the decision to cash out or move up. Some baby boomers downsized their homes, thereby boosting their retirement funds.

Buyer demand remained exceptionally strong in the second quarter, which doesn’t indicate a bubble but rather reflects long-term growth in the market. Marin County remains a key Bay Area destination, and buyers continued to outnumber the supply of available homes. The most active markets were for high-end homes in communities such as Mill Valley, Ross, and Kentfield.

Looking Forward: The summer months typically bring a slowdown in activity, as buyers’ thoughts turn to vacations instead of real estate. However, the Bay Area’s booming economy virtually guarantees that Marin County real estate will continue to command high interest from buyers. List prices will likely stabilize in the third and fourth quarters, although multiple offers for the most desirable homes will continue to push final prices higher.

Defining Marin County: Our real estate markets in Marin County include the cities of Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

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Median Sales Price

Months’ Supply of Inventory

$990,000 $1,008,650

$946,000 $848,500

$905,000 $905,000 $852,000

$935,000 $995,000 $1,001,500 $1,030,000

$1,100,000 $1,060,000

$100,000

$300,000

$500,000

$700,000

$900,000

$1,100,000

$1,300,000

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.

2.0 2.0 1.9

2.6

2.2 2.0

1.8

2.5 2.5

1.7 1.8

1.4 1.4

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

3.1

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.

Page 18: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

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Average Days on the Market

Percentage of Properties Under Contract

41

52 50 54 53

62

75

84

73

56

45

53 46

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.

30.4% 29.2% 27.5% 27.2% 27.7% 27.0%

19.0%

32.1% 31.8%

40.9%

34.7%

39.2% 38.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

100.0%

98.6%

97.0%

94.2%

98.0%

96.0%

93.8% 94.5%

98.0%

95.8%

100.7%

99.3%

98.3%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.

Page 19: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

A Closer Look at Marin County

Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change

Belvedere 32,745,000$ 23,342,260$ -29% 11 9 -18% 38 76 100% 2,650,000$ 2,470,000$ -7%

Corte Madera 43,814,936$ 33,693,348$ -23% 38 27 -29% 34 32 -6% 1,025,000$ 1,249,650$ 22%

Fairfax 25,283,880$ 21,579,015$ -15% 33 25 -24% 45 35 -22% 779,000$ 800,000$ 3%

Greenbrae 23,864,400$ 33,732,000$ 41% 15 22 47% 34 33 -3% 1,425,000$ 1,475,500$ 4%

Kentfield 60,434,625$ 55,690,035$ -8% 26 27 4% 43 37 -14% 1,926,500$ 1,800,000$ -7%

Larkspur 33,454,500$ 38,797,350$ 16% 23 26 13% 56 34 -39% 1,318,000$ 1,347,500$ 2%

Mill Valley 147,765,450$ 196,953,722$ 33% 109 120 10% 43 40 -7% 1,250,000$ 1,350,000$ 8%

Novato 114,916,670$ 131,874,944$ 15% 154 159 3% 52 47 -10% 699,000$ 765,000$ 9%

Ross 43,243,050$ 59,131,400$ 37% 17 17 0% 33 60 82% 2,100,000$ 3,200,000$ 52%

San Anselmo 94,727,620$ 78,392,205$ -17% 86 67 -22% 45 57 27% 975,500$ 950,000$ -3%

San Rafael 163,090,910$ 169,119,995$ 4% 171 165 -4% 47 39 -17% 819,000$ 858,000$ 5%

Sausalito 34,507,513$ 38,225,300$ 11% 21 20 -5% 40 44 10% 1,470,000$ 1,614,150$ 10%

Tiburon 92,371,025$ 127,701,500$ 38% 38 40 5% 46 133 189% 2,232,500$ 3,100,000$ 39%

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in selected Marin County cities.

Marin County Snapshot: Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

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Page 20: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Linda CarrollRegional Executive, Napa [email protected] Main Street | Napa, CA 94559

Napa CountyQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ2 2014

Page 21: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Napa County: Q2 ResultsAfter a slow first quarter, real estate activity in Pacific Union’s Napa County region picked up noticeably in April, performed even better in May, and shot off the charts in June. The second quarter of 2014 saw a large increase in the supply of available homes, and buyers were waiting; as soon as a well-priced property came on the market, it sold.

All price points saw strong sales activity across the county, with exceptional demand for winery properties and vacant land suitable for development. Distressed properties – short sales and bank-owned homes – have virtually disappeared from the marketplace after accounting for half of all sales just a few years ago. Home prices have stabilized, and multiple offers, a staple of nearly all sales last year, have waned. In short, Napa County’s real estate markets have largely returned to normalcy after a tumultuous seven years of boom, bust, and recovery.

Looking Forward: The third quarter looks to be an active time for homebuying and selling, even though sales typically slow a bit after schools let out for the summer and families pursue vacations. Plenty of buyers will be watching – and bidding – in the months ahead.

Defining Napa County: Our real estate markets in Napa County include the cities of American Canyon, Angwin, Calistoga, Napa, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena, and Yountville. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes in Napa County.

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Median Sales Price

Months’ Supply of Inventory

$540,000

$505,000 $527,500

$468,500 $492,500 $501,000

$475,000

$528,000

$471,000

$563,250

$510,022

$575,000

$535,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes in Napa County.

4.0

3.0

3.8

4.2

3.8 3.8

2.9

4.1 4.5

4.7

3.4 3.4 3.1

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

3.1

3.6

4.1

4.6

5.1

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in Napa County.

Page 22: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

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Average Days on the Market

Percentage of Properties Under Contract

67

82 77 81 83 87 91

127

110 100

65 71

76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in Napa County.  

21.5% 20.1% 18.8%

16.7% 18.0% 17.4%

14.8%

21.0%

18.2%

25.6%

20.1%

24.6% 22.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in Napa County.  

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

98.3%

96.5% 96.3% 96.3%

93.6%

92.2%

94.1%

90.0% 90.7%

93.7%

96.4% 95.4%

95.9%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in Napa County.

Page 23: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

A Closer Look at Napa County

Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change

American Canyon 21,731,900$ 17,195,400$ -21% 60 43 -28% 71 43 -39% 353,500$ 403,000$ 14%

Angwin 3,773,500$ 2,780,000$ -26% 7 3 -57% 89 78 -12% 450,000$ 395,000$ -12%

Calistoga 23,499,000$ 17,876,000$ -24% 21 16 -24% 87 124 43% 655,000$ 672,500$ 3%

Napa 138,987,350$ 169,367,620$ 22% 243 246 1% 80 67 -16% 469,000$ 532,000$ 13%

St. Helena 37,869,668$ 61,038,408$ 61% 31 34 10% 97 124 28% 960,000$ 1,095,579$ 14%

Yountville 7,375,800$ 8,090,000$ 10% 9 8 -11% 67 24 -64% 765,000$ 1,032,500$ 35%

Source: Terradatum, July 7 2014. Data is for single-family homes in selected Napa County cities.

Napa County Snapshot: Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change

Under $500,000 73,678,850$ 57,855,485$ -21% 206 151 -27% 67 64 -4% 365,000$ 395,000$ 8%

$500,000 - $999,999 83,119,868$ 97,244,260$ 17% 122 143 17% 101 74 -27% 650,000$ 650,000$ 0%

$1 million - $3 million 63,155,728$ 71,765,683$ 14% 43 47 9% 99 72 -27% 1,250,000$ 1,340,000$ 7%

Over $3 million 24,600,000$ 49,032,000$ 99% 3 9 200% 69 121 75% 5,900,000$ 5,025,000$ -15%

Median Price

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in Napa County.

Napa County Price Range Snapshot: Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market

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Page 24: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Patrick [email protected] Letterman Drive, Building C, Suite 500 | San Francisco, CA 94129

San FranciscoQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ2 2014

Page 25: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

San Francisco: Q2 ResultsOne year ago the San Francisco real estate market was on fire, as the region came roaring back from the recession and housing downturn, yielding exceptionally strong sales in virtually every market and neighborhood and at all price points. Fast-forwarding to the second quarter of 2014 we saw largely the same story: Demand for San Francisco single-family homes and condominiums showed little sign of cooling.

The supply of available homes rose modestly during the quarter, but aggressive bidding and multiple offers remained typical for almost all fairly priced properties. Median home prices continued to climb higher, with final prices routinely topping list prices by 10 percent or more –a welcome bonus for sellers. The Mission District remained particularly popular with buyers, thanks in part to its prime location, wealth of transportation options, and abundant supply of vintage housing.

Looking Forward: San Francisco’s strong real estate market does not appear to be weakening. Home prices will likely continue to rise moderately, and we expect to see more properties gradually hit the market. As one of the nation’s most popular relocation destinations due to a booming regional economy, San Francisco will continue to provide plenty of opportunities for both buyers and sellers.

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Single-Family Homes – Median Sales Price

Condominiums – Median Sales Price

$939,000 $872,500

$934,000 $929,000 $903,000

$957,000 $947,000 $925,000

$1,050,000 $985,000

$1,100,000 $1,100,000

$1,200,000

$100,000

$300,000

$500,000

$700,000

$900,000

$1,100,000

$1,300,000

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes in San Francisco.

$825,000 $875,000

$828,500 $851,500 $896,500

$872,500

$770,000

$950,000 $945,000 $979,000 $920,000

$980,000 $1,050,000

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

$1,100,000

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Median sales price for condominiums in San Francisco.

Page 26: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

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Single-Family Homes – Months’ Supply of Inventory

1.4 1.4

1.7

2.4

1.6

1.3 1.1

2.1

1.7 1.5

1.3 1.3

1.8

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in San Francisco.

Single-Family Homes – Average Days on the Market

35 33

38

31 34 34

42 41 38

32 35

26 27

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in San Francisco.  

Condominiums – Months’ Supply of Inventory

1.6

1.2

1.5

2.5

1.4 1.2

1.0

2.0

1.7

1.2 1.1

1.4 1.4

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

3.1

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in San Francisco.

Page 27: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

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Condominiums – Average Days on the Market

37 39

36 34 35

39 43

46

40

30 30 29 33

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Average days on market for condominiums sold in San Francisco.  

Condominiums – Percentage of Properties Under Contract

38.8% 41.1%

33.5% 30.8%

38.8% 38.8%

33.2% 33.5%

39.3%

46.6% 42.3% 40.8%

35.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Percentage of condominiums under contract in San Francisco.  

Single-Family Homes – Percentage of Properties Under Contract

38.0% 35.6% 34.2%

28.7%

39.6% 37.1%

27.7%

32.5% 37.3%

42.3% 41.7%

38.0%

33.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.  

Page 28: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

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Single-Family Homes – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

109.4%

105.3% 104.4%

107.6% 106.1% 105.6%

99.5%

103.5%

106.9%

109.3% 109.8%

113.5%

110.6%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.

Condominiums – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

106.9% 106.3% 105.0%

103.8% 103.5% 104.1%

101.3% 100.5%

105.5%

108.2% 106.9%

107.9%

106.8%

96%

98%

100%

102%

104%

106%

108%

110%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for condominiums under contract in San Francisco.

Page 29: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Delving into San Francisco’s Districts

San Francisco is defined by 10 separate districts, each of which encompasses several neighborhoods.

District 1: Inner Richmond, Central Richmond, Outer Richmond, JordanPark/Laurel Heights, Lake, Lone Mountain, Sea Cliff.

District 2: Outer Sunset, Central Sunset, Inner Sunset, Outer Parkside, Parkside, Inner Parkside, Golden Gate Heights.

District 3: Pine Lake Park, Merced Manor, Lake Shore, Lakeside, Stonestown, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights,

Oceanview.

District 4: Balboa Terrace, Diamond Heights, Forest Hill, Forest Hill Extension, Forest Knolls, Ingleside Terrace, Midtown

Terrace, Miraloma Park, Monterey Heights, Mount Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, St. Francis Wood,

Sunnyside, West Portal, Westwood Highlands, Westwood Park.

District 5: Buena Vista/Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Cole Valley/Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights,

Duboce Triangle, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights, Glen Park, Haight-Ashbury, Mission Dolores, Noe Valley, Twin Peaks.

District 6: Alamo Square, Anza Vista, Hayes Valley, Lower Pacific Heights, North Panhandle, Western Addition.

District 7: Cow Hollow, Marina, Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights.

District 8: Downtown, Financial District/Barbary Coast, Nob Hill, North Beach, North Waterfront, Russian Hill, Telegraph Hill,

Tenderloin, Van Ness/Civic Center.

District 9: Bernal Heights, Central Waterfront/Dogpatch, Inner Mission, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, South Beach,

South of Market, Yerba Buena.

District 10: Bayview, Bayview Heights, Candlestick Point, Crocker Amazon, Excelsior, Hunters Point, Little Hollywood,

Outer Mission, Mission Terrace, Portola, Silver Terrace, Visitacion Valley.

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Page 30: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

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Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change

District 1 120,202,000$ 102,975,175$ -14% 70 56 -20% 38 20 -47% 1,431,500$ 1,602,500$ 12%

District 2 110,912,382$ 122,156,648$ 10% 124 107 -14% 25 28 12% 845,445$ 1,000,000$ 18%

District 3 43,280,000$ 38,505,000$ -11% 55 41 -25% 37 26 -30% 720,000$ 836,500$ 16%

District 4 111,217,537$ 106,062,750$ -5% 89 73 -18% 35 28 -20% 1,146,000$ 1,375,000$ 20%

District 5 191,832,276$ 183,319,608$ -4% 112 86 -23% 32 20 -38% 1,567,500$ 1,942,500$ 24%

District 6 23,642,125$ 26,537,240$ 12% 11 11 0% 34 21 -38% 2,250,000$ 2,725,000$ 21%

District 7 193,415,000$ 156,513,300$ -19% 47 34 -28% 32 45 41% 3,200,000$ 3,700,000$ 16%

District 8 28,310,000$ 34,901,250$ 23% 8 8 0% 28 86 207% 2,562,500$ 3,191,000$ 25%

District 9 97,383,124$ 65,256,875$ -33% 87 54 -38% 36 27 -25% 1,030,000$ 1,170,000$ 14%

District 10 82,863,975$ 98,995,932$ 19% 143 139 -3% 39 35 -10% 580,000$ 692,000$ 19%

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco districts.

San Francisco Snapshot: SFH, Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change

District 1 30,482,475$ 40,125,500$ 32% 32 34 6% 31 32 3% 873,500$ 1,004,000$ 15%

District 2 8,835,000$ 17,250,888$ 95% 12 16 33% 45 28 -38% 716,000$ 927,500$ 30%

District 3 3,687,000$ 6,238,000$ 69% 9 10 11% 45 27 -40% 421,000$ 549,500$ 31%

District 4 10,139,000$ 10,418,125$ 3% 19 17 -11% 64 23 -64% 460,000$ 575,000$ 25%

District 5 119,915,548$ 125,252,282$ 4% 116 107 -8% 33 23 -30% 999,000$ 1,150,000$ 15%

District 6 74,471,601$ 66,670,671$ -10% 85 64 -25% 39 30 -23% 825,000$ 999,000$ 21%

District 7 128,623,760$ 130,806,514$ 2% 101 87 -14% 47 26 -45% 1,259,000$ 1,301,000$ 3%

District 8 140,843,889$ 137,325,269$ -2% 130 115 -12% 38 42 11% 865,000$ 920,000$ 6%

District 9 229,227,402$ 315,051,153$ 37% 230 278 21% 32 30 -6% 827,500$ 920,500$ 11%

District 10 10,498,857$ 5,026,869$ -52% 26 10 -62% 97 59 -39% 412,000$ 541,500$ 31%

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco districts.

San Francisco Snapshot: Condos, Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Page 31: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

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Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change

Under $1 million 274,051,588$ 189,426,030$ -31% 386 251 -35% 35 34 -3% 723,500$ 750,000$ 4%

$1 million - $3 million 510,311,731$ 485,258,173$ -5% 318 302 -5% 32 23 -28% 1,450,000$ 1,467,500$ 1%

Over $3 million 218,695,100$ 260,539,575$ 19% 42 56 33% 35 40 14% 3,900,000$ 3,690,000$ -5%

San Francisco Price Range Snapshot: SFH, Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco County.

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change

Under $1 million 322,759,806$ 277,948,911$ -14% 473 384 -19% 40 34 -15% 710,000$ 751,250$ 6%

$1 million - $2 million 333,758,726$ 393,505,564$ 18% 251 289 15% 35 25 -29% 1,300,000$ 1,316,000$ 1%

Over $2 million 100,206,000$ 182,710,796$ 82% 36 65 81% 66 35 -47% 2,442,500$ 2,500,000$ 2%

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco County.

San Francisco Price Range Snapshot: Condos, Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Page 32: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

David BarcaVice President, Silicon [email protected] El Camino Real, Suite 220 | Menlo Park CA 94025

Silicon ValleyQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ2 2014

Page 33: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Silicon Valley: Q2 ResultsSpring is typically a brisk season for real estate, but second-quarter activity in Pacific Union’s Silicon Valley region was even busier than usual. Tech-industry workers and foreign buyers helped spur the activity, including a nonstop rise in sale prices. Just a few years ago, homes in the market’s “sweet spot” sold for $1.1 million to $1.7 million; today, those same homes command between $1.5 million and $2.5 million, and they go into escrow as soon as they hit the market.

High-end homes continued to sell well, with many buyers paying all cash for properties priced at $10 million and higher. An estimated 25 percent of sales in the region were “off-market” – private transactions that never appeared on an MLS.

Off- MLS sales are controversial because, while buyers and sellers can avoid the tumult of open houses and bidding wars, a prearranged price can mask a home’s real value. Buyers, for example, may pay many thousands above asking price for a home listed on the open market. On the other hand, sellers may settle for a price far below what a home is worth in an off-MLS transaction.

Looking Forward: The third quarter in Silicon Valley looks to be busy, although not as hectic as the second. Homes generally attracted fewer multiple offers in the second quarter than in the first, and we expect that trend to continue.

Defining Silicon Valley: Our real estate markets in the Silicon Valley region include the cities and towns of Atherton, Los Altos (excluding county area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes in these communities.

Defining the Mid-Peninsula: Our real estate markets in the Mid-Peninsula subregion include the cities of Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area). Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes in these communities.

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Median Sales Price

Months’ Supply of Inventory

$2,160,000 $2,010,000 $2,087,500 $2,205,000

$2,250,018

$2,100,000 $2,325,000 $2,400,000 $2,358,000

$2,617,500 $2,466,000 $2,425,000 $2,400,000

$100,000

$600,000

$1,100,000

$1,600,000

$2,100,000

$2,600,000

$3,100,000

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Silicon Valley communities:

Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.

2.1

1.7 1.6

3.1

1.7 1.6

1.1

2.4 2.5

1.5 1.6 1.4

1.2

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

3.1

3.6

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these SIlicon Valley communities:

Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.

Page 34: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

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Average Days on the Market

23 24

38 37

30 30

37

55

29 25

20 19 22

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Silicon Valley communities:

Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

101.4% 100.4%

99.1% 99.7%

101.2%

102.5% 102.1%

100.1%

104.5%

102.8%

106.2%

104.6% 103.9%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

104%

106%

108%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Silicon Valley communities:

Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract

29.8% 31.7%

29.1% 27.9% 31.7% 32.5%

24.6%

29.9% 34.0%

44.3%

36.9%

42.8%

38.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Silicon Valley communities:

Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.

Page 35: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Silicon Valleypacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

A Closer Look at Silicon Valley

Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change

Atherton 138,484,000$ 193,393,003$ 40% 33 34 3% 42 44 5% 3,600,000$ 3,953,502$ 10%

Los Altos* 254,306,762$ 268,980,624$ 6% 122 101 -17% 17 15 -12% 2,000,000$ 2,350,000$ 18%

Los Altos Hills 106,700,498$ 99,809,000$ -6% 29 25 -14% 61 33 -46% 2,995,000$ 3,300,000$ 10%

Menlo Park** 186,218,500$ 212,798,075$ 14% 96 87 -9% 18 15 -17% 1,817,500$ 2,040,000$ 12%

Palo Alto 291,764,488$ 362,272,674$ 24% 118 131 11% 17 15 -12% 2,100,000$ 2,300,000$ 10%

Portola Valley 88,610,000$ 86,248,000$ -3% 26 32 23% 38 21 -45% 2,775,000$ 2,350,000$ -15%

Woodside 112,010,500$ 113,993,500$ 2% 39 31 -21% 40 42 5% 2,383,000$ 2,517,000$ 6%

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in selected Silicon Valley cities. *Excludes County area **Excludes east of U.S. 101

Silicon Valley Snapshot: Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Page 36: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Mid-Peninsulapacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Median Sales Price

$1,380,000 $1,267,500

$1,375,000 $1,250,000

$1,204,000 $1,263,500

$1,562,500

$1,360,000 $1,311,375 $1,300,500

$1,475,000 $1,600,000

$1,493,000

$100,000

$300,000

$500,000

$700,000

$900,000

$1,100,000

$1,300,000

$1,500,000

$1,700,000

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes in these San Mateo County communities:

Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).

Average Days on the Market

27 30

34

26

19

25

32

50

33

25

18

35

17

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these San Mateo County communities:

Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).

Months’ Supply of Inventory

1.6

1.3 1.4

1.9

1.5

1.1

0.8

1.6

2.4

1.3

1.0 1.1

1.2

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these San Mateo County communities:

Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).

Page 37: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Mid-Peninsulapacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Percentage of Properties Under Contract

34.2% 35.6% 38.9%

32.2%

38.8%

44.6%

28.6% 28.1%

36.3%

49.8% 46.9%

43.6%

36.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these San Mateo County communities:

Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).

A Closer Look at Silicon Valley

Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change

Burlingame* 143,606,026$ 151,022,888$ 5% 85 82 -4% 26 16 -38% 1,592,000$ 1,707,500$ 7%

Hillsborough 113,014,750$ 165,306,458$ 46% 37 44 19% 59 56 -5% 2,800,000$ 2,997,500$ 7%

San Mateo** 200,517,708$ 197,083,406$ -2% 185 157 -15% 22 18 -18% 1,005,649$ 1,085,000$ 8%

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in selected San Mateo County cities. * Excludes Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center ** Excludes the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area

Mid-Peninsula Snapshot: Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

103.4%

100.9%

102.2%

99.8%

104.0%

103.0%

98.0% 98.8%

102.9% 103.2% 103.6%

102.4%

103.9%

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

100%

101%

102%

103%

104%

105%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these San Mateo County communities:

Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).

Page 38: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Rick LawsSenior Vice President, Sonoma [email protected] Mendocino Avenue, Suite 210 | Santa Rosa, CA 95403

Sonoma CountyQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ2 2014

Page 39: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Sonoma County: Q2 ResultsAfter a slow start in the first quarter, home sales in Pacific Union’s Sonoma County region picked up significantly in the second quarter as more, higher-priced inventory arrived on the market. After sitting on the fence for years, sellers saw equity levels rise substantially and decided the time was right to get in the game. Buyers, meanwhile, were anxious to take advantage of the expanded supply. Many homes received multiple offers, but typically two or three per property – not the 10 or 12 bids seen over the past year.

The median sales price rose moderately, but less because of appreciation and more because of the changing nature of home sales. A few years ago the Sonoma County market consisted mostly of short sales and foreclosures, whereas today they account for 10 percent or less of sales. Equity sales and higher-priced properties are currently predominant as the housing recovery advances and the market returns to normalcy.

Looking Forward: As long as the inventory of available homes continues to rise, we expect continued growth in the region. Demand for homes will not be as frantic as we’ve seen over the past year, but it still runs deep. We look forward to a strong second half for 2014.

Defining Sonoma County: Our real estate markets in Sonoma County include the cities of Cotati, Healdsburg, Penngrove, Petaluma, Rohnert Park, Santa Rosa, Sebastopol, and Windsor. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes and farms and ranches in Sonoma County.

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Median Sales Price

Months’ Supply of Inventory

$435,000

$479,000

$437,000 $447,650 $457,500 $450,000 $465,000 $460,000 $449,325

$491,500 $468,950

$485,500 $498,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.

2.1 2.1 2.1

2.7

2.2 2.4

2.0

2.5 2.5

2.1 2.3

2.1 1.9

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

3.1

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.

Page 40: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Sonoma Countypacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Average Days on the Market

62

71 68 67 67

78 79 81

72 73 74

59 57

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes and farms/ranches sold in Sonoma County.  

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

97.6% 98.0%

97.4%

96.3% 96.2%

94.3%

96.9%

93.7%

95.9% 96.0%

96.8%

98.9% 98.4%

91%

92%

93%

94%

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

100%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract

29.6% 30.1%

26.5% 25.0%

27.0% 24.9%

22.2%

27.5%

33.9% 32.3% 32.5% 32.9% 33.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.  

Page 41: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

A Closer Look at Sonoma County

Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change

Healdsburg 39,450,520$ 45,435,315$ 15% 53 46 -13% 61 56 -8% 610,000$ 612,500$ 0%

Petaluma 93,971,750$ 84,739,300$ -10% 178 138 -22% 61 47 -23% 468,500$ 557,500$ 19%

Rohnert Park 30,824,600$ 30,989,788$ 1% 81 72 -11% 53 44 -17% 379,000$ 420,000$ 11%

Santa Rosa 301,707,438$ 280,943,923$ -7% 610 520 -15% 64 56 -13% 410,000$ 440,000$ 7%

Sebastopol 52,472,371$ 48,417,055$ -8% 73 66 -10% 78 63 -19% 600,000$ 690,000$ 15%

Windsor 39,707,025$ 41,207,762$ 4% 87 81 -7% 73 81 11% 420,000$ 470,000$ 12%

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma County cities.

Sonoma County Snapshot: Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change

Under $1 million 621,526,935$ 587,642,861$ -5% 1361 1,167 -14% 66 60 -9% 420,000$ 461,000$ 10%

$1 million and over 178,440,649$ 171,045,025$ -4% 97 101 4% 111 88 -21% 1,370,000$ 1,350,000$ -1%

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma County cities.

Sonoma County Price Range Snapshot: Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

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Page 42: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Jill SilvasRegional Executive, Sonoma [email protected] West Napa Street, Suite 200 | Sonoma, CA 95476

Sonoma ValleyQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ2 2014

Page 43: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Sonoma Valley: Q2 ResultsSellers in Pacific Union’s Sonoma Valley region tended to keep their properties off the market during the winter and early spring months, waiting for gardens and flowerbeds to bloom in order to present their homes in the best light. That decision created a substantial increase in listings during the latter part of the second quarter. Additionally, sellers put overly optimistic prices on their homes – higher it seems than the market would bear – and the strategy backfired. By the end of the second quarter many sellers had reduced prices, and homes were staying on the market longer than expected.

Nonetheless, it was a busy quarter. Some sellers found themselves in the unusual position of competing for buyers, who got to choose from a more robust mix of homes. Well-priced properties continued to attract multiple offers, although far fewer than the dozen or so that we saw last year.

There was even a bit of a sales lull for midpriced homes in May before activity regained steam in June, and what began as a boom in the beginning of the year for multimillion dollar properties has now softened considerably. It remains to be seen as to whether this is just another cyclical event or a correction in the market as a whole.

Looking Forward: With a strong market in second-home sales, Sonoma Valley real estate is closely tied to the Bay Area’s economy. Forecasts call for robust economic growth well into next year, suggesting plenty of opportunities for both buyers and sellers.

Defining Sonoma Valley: Our real estate markets in Sonoma Valley include the cities of Glen Ellen, Kenwood, and Sonoma. Sales data in the charts below refers to all residential properties – including single-family homes, condominiums, and farms and ranches – in these communities.

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Median Sales Price

Months’ Supply of Inventory

$560,000 $529,025

$496,278

$586,000 $565,000

$500,000 $477,000

$608,500 $610,672

$500,000

$645,000

$540,000 $555,000

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.

2.1 2.0 2.4

4.4

2.5 2.4

3.0

2.3

3.0 3.3

3.0

2.3

3.1

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

3.1

3.6

4.1

4.6

5.1

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.

Page 44: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Sonoma Valleypacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Average Days on the Market

53

68 76

94

64

51

69

80 77

105

78

50

61

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches sold in Sonoma Valley.  

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

94.7%

98.7%

95.2%

92.4%

93.9%

96.6%

94.6%

92.2% 91.8% 92.5%

96.8%

99.5%

96.7%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.

Percentage of Properties Under Contract

31.7%

27.7%

17.2%

23.4% 24.3%

20.2% 22.7%

23.9% 26.6%

28.3%

30.5%

23.2%

29.1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.  

Page 45: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

A Closer Look at Sonoma Valley

Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change

Glen Ellen 12,125,270$ 17,756,900$ 46% 13 14 8% 63 62 -2% 745,000$ 1,005,500$ 35%

Kenwood 11,891,000$ 9,914,000$ -17% 10 7 -30% 83 202 143% 890,000$ 1,260,000$ 42%

Sonoma 121,738,193$ 103,016,425$ -15% 149 139 -7% 56 54 -4% 545,000$ 569,000$ 4%

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma Valley cities.

Sonoma Valley Snapshot: Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

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Page 46: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Sally GardnerRegional Executive, Tahoe/TruckeeTahoe City 530.581.1882 | Truckee 530.587.7098 | Squaw Valley [email protected]

Tahoe/TruckeeQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ2 2014

Page 47: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Tahoe/Truckee: Q2 ResultsReal estate activity operates on a different timetable in Pacific Union’s Tahoe/Truckee region than in the Bay Area. Whereas the second quarter is a beehive of activity for Bay Area homebuyers and sellers, it is the quietest time of the year in the Tahoe/Truckee region, with skiers gone home and summer vacationers not yet arrived.

That calm was a boon for second-quarter homebuyers in the region, who had an ample supply of homes from which to choose. Sellers, meanwhile, saw prices rise steadily amid pent-up demand for single-family homes and condominiums. Properties that were fairly priced sold quickly.

Tahoe/Truckee is primarily a second-home market, closely linked to the Bay Area’s economic health (as well as that of Sacramento and Reno), and the recession and housing-market troubles of recent years took a toll on the region. After more than a year of recovery, however, Tahoe/Truckee returned to a balanced market in the second quarter, with plenty of inventory and hopeful buyers alike.

Looking Forward: The third quarter is prime time for the Tahoe/Truckee real estate market, as vacationers pull double duty as homebuyers. With the Bay Area economy showing no signs of slowing, we expect to see increasing numbers of residents choose to invest in Tahoe/Truckee real estate.

Defining Tahoe/Truckee: Our real estate markets in Tahoe/Truckee include the communities of Alpine Meadows, Donner Lake, Donner Summit, Lahontan, Martis Valley, North Shore Lake Tahoe, Northstar, Squaw Valley, Tahoe City, Tahoe Donner, Truckee, and the West Shore of Lake Tahoe. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes and condominiums in these communities.

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Single-Family Homes – Median Sales Price

Condominiums – Median Sales Price

$528,000 $550,000 $559,500 $550,000 $545,000 $560,000

$614,605 $605,000

$699,000

$610,000

$525,000

$620,000

$529,277

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

$420,000

$289,000 $300,000

$350,250

$381,500 $374,500

$345,000

$262,000

$390,000

$290,000

$334,000

$387,500

$350,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Median sales price for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Page 48: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Tahoe/Truckeepacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Single-Family Homes – Months’ Supply of Inventory

6.1 6.1

4.9 4.9 5.1 5.3

6.1

8.4

6.4 7.0 6.7

5.6

8.1

0.1

1.1

2.1

3.1

4.1

5.1

6.1

7.1

8.1

9.1

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Single-Family Homes – Average Days on the Market

66

89 90 97 101

94 107

93 100

140

102 96

72

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in the Tahoe/Truckee region.  

Condominiums – Months’ Supply of Inventory

9.9

8.4 7.5

5.5 5.2

6.9 7.1

8.8

12.9

11.4

8.8 7.7

10.8

0.1

2.1

4.1

6.1

8.1

10.1

12.1

14.1

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Page 49: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Tahoe/Truckeepacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living

Condominiums – Average Days on the Market

85

197

140 159

113

159

122

150 150 137

54

114

86

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Average days on market for condominiums sold in the Tahoe/Truckee region.  

Condominiums – Percentage of Properties Under Contract

11.0%

12.7%

14.1%

12.4% 12.9%

6.9%

9.1%

7.2%

11.5% 10.5%

9.0% 8.3%

9.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Percentage of condominiums under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.  

Single-Family Homes – Percentage of Properties Under Contract

13.7% 14.8%

16.2%

13.2% 13.0%

10.9%

8.9%

14.0%

11.5%

17.5%

15.3%

9.3% 9.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.  

Page 50: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

Single-Family Homes – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

95.7% 95.0%

92.3%

94.6%

91.5%

95.0%

92.8% 92.1%

91.3%

89.2%

95.3%

94.0%

95.5%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Condominiums – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

92.7% 91.8%

92.7%

94.7%

91.2%

95.4%

93.0% 92.5%

96.1%

89.5%

94.6% 94.8%

96.6%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for condominiums under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

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Page 51: Q22014 quarterlyreport ezine final

A Closer Look at Tahoe/Truckee

Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change

Alpine Meadows 1,735,000$ 4,270,000$ 146% 3 5 67% 42 127 202% 625,000$ 545,000$ -13%

Donner Lake 3,669,500$ 10,821,000$ 195% 7 14 100% 61 100 64% 460,000$ 532,500$ 16%

Donner Summit 4,239,000$ 6,396,300$ 51% 8 10 25% 130 118 -9% 515,000$ 542,500$ 5%

Martis Valley 28,396,391$ 48,163,709$ 70% 29 25 -14% 77 122 58% 493,000$ 1,735,000$ 252%

North Lake Tahoe 38,659,900$ 42,773,450$ 11% 53 55 4% 86 94 9% 440,000$ 515,000$ 17%

Northstar 5,022,200$ 5,869,000$ 17% 6 6 0% 132 376 185% 768,600$ 839,500$ 9%

Squaw Valley 9,398,250$ 5,088,000$ -46% 8 3 -63% 123 35 -72% 848,500$ 853,000$ 1%

Tahoe City 16,083,000$ 14,453,700$ -10% 17 16 -6% 122 103 -16% 504,000$ 552,750$ 10%

Tahoe Donner 42,883,881$ 31,540,350$ -26% 71 49 -31% 72 28 -61% 555,000$ 595,000$ 7%

Truckee 39,681,776$ 59,008,922$ 49% 56 47 -16% 53 77 45% 406,418$ 529,277$ 30%

West Shore 30,871,950$ 38,194,426$ 24% 33 38 15% 114 145 27% 592,500$ 508,250$ -14%

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Tahoe/Truckee Snapshot: SFH, Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change Q2 '13 Q2 '14 % change

Alpine Meadows 219,000$ 1,009,000$ 361% 1 3 200% 88 46 -48% 219,000$ 334,000$ 53%

Donner Lake 639,000$ 55,000$ -91% 2 1 -50% 849 76 -91% 319,500$ 55,000$ -83%

Donner Summit -$ 115,000$ n/a 0 1 n/a 0 274 n/a -$ 115,000$ n/a

North Lake Tahoe 9,968,500$ 8,907,969$ -11% 21 20 -5% 141 90 -36% 290,000$ 348,000$ 20%

NorthStar 4,734,000$ 6,077,340$ 28% 10 12 20% 116 53 -54% 325,500$ 342,500$ 5%

Squaw Valley 4,075,700$ 4,927,000$ 21% 9 8 -11% 243 224 -8% 410,000$ 611,500$ 49%

Tahoe City 5,612,500$ 3,150,100$ -44% 12 7 -42% 144 51 -65% 331,750$ 393,000$ 18%

Tahoe Donner 2,164,300$ 3,792,970$ 75% 9 15 67% 26 53 104% 242,900$ 256,000$ 5%

Truckee 3,054,950$ 3,863,000$ 26% 6 8 33% 56 99 77% 464,500$ 439,500$ -5%

West Shore 765,000$ -$ n/a 1 0 n/a 14 0 n/a 765,000$ -$ n/a

Tahoe/Truckee Snapshot: Condos, Q2 2014 vs. Q2 2013

Source: Terradatum, July 7, 2014. Data is for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

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