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Quarterly Real Estate ReportQ3 2014
Pacific Union and John Burns Real Estate Consulting Team Up to Deliver Exclusive 2017 Outlook 4
Contra Costa County 6
East Bay 10
Marin County 14
Napa County 18
San Francisco 22
Silicon Valley 30
Sonoma County 36
Sonoma Valley 40
Tahoe/Truckee 44
Table of Contents
Mark A. McLaughlin, CEO, Pacific Union
Please remember to seek out local news, trend analysis, and expert advice for your real estate decisions.
Pacific Union and John Burns Real Estate Consulting Team Up to Deliver Exclusive 2017 OutlookWe are asked almost daily to predict the future of real estate and to answer the question “When is the best time to invest in the market?”
While Pacific Union’s regional and local market knowledge is significant and our decision-support tools are comprehensive and informative, we are not qualified as economists to provide substantive, forward-looking advice beyond a season or a few quarters.
That’s why we are pleased to announce that Pacific Union has formed an exclusive partnership with John Burns Real Estate Consulting (JBREC) to publish the first San Francisco Bay Area Real Estate Outlook 2017.
JBREC is the leading national source of independent housing research, advice, and consulting, with the goal of helping investors make informed housing-industry decisions. JBREC backs its research with detailed data, proprietary tools, and experienced professionals who hold doctorate degrees.
John Burns, CEO of his namesake consulting firm, will leverage his 20-plus years of national real estate consulting experience – as well as his MBA from UCLA and bachelor’s degree in economics from Stanford University – to provide a lens into San Francisco Bay Area real estate through 2017.
On Wednesday, Nov. 5 at 5 p.m., John and I will proudly introduce the exclusive report at the SFJAZZ Center in San Francisco. We will deliver a content-rich hour of key macro- and microeconomic attributes, risks, and variables that drive our residential real estate markets, including population growth; job growth and quality; mortgage rates; and new supply of housing units.
The presentation will include a thorough overview of the Bay Area, plus a detailed examination of the nine regions Pacific Union serves: Contra Costa County, the East Bay, Marin County, Napa County, San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Sonoma County, Sonoma Valley, and Tahoe/Truckee.
While our industry has multiple indexes that reflect the previous quarter’s results – what we call “trailing perspective” – this exclusive presentation and report will offer our real estate professionals and their clients a look into the future of Bay Area real estate.
Look for details from your Pacific Union real estate professional regarding the November event, which will be open to 350 attendees on a first-come, first-served basis. We will also stream the presentation via a live simulcast in both English and Mandarin.
Once again, Pacific Union strives to innovate and provide thoughtful market intelligence to our clients, and our partnership with JBREC is the next step in fulfilling that goal.
Bay Area 10-Year OverviewHere’s a look at home sales in the Bay Area’s real estate markets in the third quarter of 2014, with a glance back at the 10 preceding third quarters.
Click here to see specific 10-year data on key cities in the Bay Area.
REGION Q3 '04 Q3 '05 Q3 '06 Q3 '07 Q3 '08 Q3 '09 Q3 '10 Q3 '11 Q3 '12 Q3 '13 Q3 '14
CONTRA COSTA COUNTY 3,863 3,819 2,467 1,591 3,420 3,364 2,831 3,110 3,086 2,965 2,851
EAST BAY 1,041 901 784 660 647 582 594 627 785 822 825
MARIN COUNTY 793 726 588 496 492 483 466 525 662 691 615
NAPA COUNTY 409 437 282 187 296 340 330 338 382 375 297
SAN FRANCISCO (SFH) 893 784 673 556 619 651 578 626 638 705 614
SAN FRANCISCO (CONDOS) 686 660 537 488 491 480 462 510 682 696 625
SILICON VALLEY 948 824 651 560 510 578 629 643 656 652 558
SONOMA COUNTY 1,911 1,762 1,165 901 1,271 1,236 1,150 1,274 1,452 1,401 1,381
SONOMA VALLEY 173 170 116 103 112 109 123 138 168 164 156
TAHOE/TRUCKEE (SFH) 412 380 259 173 197 234 259 278 334 365 291
TAHOE/TRUCKEE (CONDOS) 120 105 69 50 57 77 64 67 84 100 94Copyright © Pacific Union. Source: BrokerMetrics / Terradatum, Inc. using data from SFARMLS, EBRD, BAREIS, TSIERRA, October 7, 2014. Data from MLSLSTINGS valid as of September 30, 2014.
Bay Area: 10-Year Overview of Q3 Homes Sold
Ellen AndersonSenior Vice President, Contra Costa [email protected] Sycamore Valley Road West | Danville, CA 94526
Contra Costa CountyQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ3 2014
Contra Costa County: Q3 ResultsA slowdown in real estate activity that began at the end of the second quarter continued through the third quarter in Pacific Union’s Contra Costa County region. The number of properties on the market pulled back from a year ago, perhaps because sellers were uncertain where they would find their next home, with virtually every Bay Area community reporting extremely limited inventory levels.
Contra Costa buyers were similarly cautious in the third quarter due to rapidly increasing prices, and the number of closed transactions declined. The drop-off resulted in fewer multiple offers and many more price reductions than we have seen in recent quarters, with most homes in the third quarter selling for slightly below their original list prices.
Looking Forward: We anticipate flat appreciation for the remainder of the year. Real estate activity will taper off as the holiday season approaches, and inventory will likely remain tight into 2015, as sellers wait for spring to put their homes on the market. With buyers also standing on the sidelines, homes will take longer to sell and should be priced conservatively to avoid price reductions.
Defining Contra Costa County: Our real estate markets in Contra Costa County include the cities of Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.
Contra Costa Countypacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living
Median Sales Price
Months’ Supply of Inventory
$904,000 $871,250 $897,500
$920,000 $860,000
$931,500
$1,036,975 $1,002,500
$1,047,500 $975,000 $1,036,027
$1,065,000
$972,500
$100,000
$300,000
$500,000
$700,000
$900,000
$1,100,000
$1,300,000
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Contra Costa County communities:
Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.
2.0 1.8
1.5 1.4
2.2 2.4
1.8 1.7
1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5
1.7
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.
Contra Costa Countypacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living
Average Days on the Market
22
30 28
37 38
30
23
18 19
23 21
24 27
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.
Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
99.0% 98.4% 98.0%
97.3% 97.4%
100.2% 99.9%
101.8% 102.0%
100.2% 100.5%
99.1% 99.3%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
101%
102%
103%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.
Percentage of Properties Under Contract
26.4%
33.1% 31.0%
24.0%
30.4%
34.5%
39.9% 38.2% 38.6% 37.9% 33.6% 32.8% 32.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.
A Closer Look at Contra Costa County
Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change
Alamo 78,942,585$ 140,047,292$ 77% 54 85 57% 25 35 40% 1,349,500$ 1,600,000$ 19%
Blackhawk 29,497,788$ 15,065,000$ -49% 21 9 -57% 54 53 -2% 1,220,000$ 1,785,000$ 46%
Danville 218,370,059$ 260,285,203$ 19% 205 210 2% 21 23 10% 980,000$ 1,118,500$ 14%
Diablo 9,398,000$ 7,260,000$ -23% 5 3 -40% 46 41 -11% 1,640,000$ 1,935,000$ 18%
Lafayette 113,017,105$ 109,306,347$ -3% 92 83 -10% 32 23 -28% 1,157,563$ 1,200,000$ 4%
Moraga 57,720,176$ 58,947,780$ 2% 50 50 0% 19 24 26% 1,088,140$ 1,140,000$ 5%
Orinda 98,849,261$ 127,859,698$ 29% 80 90 13% 28 29 4% 1,050,000$ 1,325,000$ 26%
PleasantHill 60,182,412$ 59,237,646$ -2% 101 89 -12% 16 24 50% 609,950$ 640,000$ 5%
San Ramon 222,150,554$ 194,618,075$ -12% 245 203 -17% 16 18 13% 880,000$ 886,000$ 1%
Walnut Creek 152,697,805$ 154,070,376$ 1% 173 162 -6% 21 22 5% 814,745$ 887,981$ 9%
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in selected Contra Costa County cities.
Contra Costa County Snapshot: Q3 2014 vs. Q3 2013
Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price
Contra Costa Countypacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living
Pam HoffmanSenior Vice President, Managing Broker, East Bay [email protected] Mountain Boulevard | Oakland, CA 94611
East BayQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ3 2014
East Bay: Q3 ResultsThe pace of sales remained strong in Pacific Union’s East Bay region during the third quarter, with July posting big gains compared with one year ago followed by a slight slowdown in August and September.
Most homes on the market received multiple offers, although the number and frequency of bids eased from the frenetic pace of the spring selling season.
Many new buyers started their search during the quarter, while the inventory of homes declined. The most competitive markets were those with high Walk Scores and those in close proximity to BART stations. The most active price point was for homes listed in the $750,000-to-$1-million range. Overall, prices continued to climb higher, with most homes in the region selling for well above their asking prices.
Looking Forward: We expect to see an increase in homes hitting the market in October and a corresponding rise in sales. A slight shift toward a more balanced market will still see strong buyer demand but without the extreme competitiveness observed in recent quarters.
Defining the East Bay: Our real estate markets in the East Bay region include Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705; Alameda; Albany; Berkeley; El Cerrito; Kensington; and Piedmont. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.
East Baypacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living
Median Sales Price
Months’ Supply of Inventory
$722,500 $730,000 $730,000 $700,000 $713,750 $725,000
$758,500 $813,500 $817,000
$842,500 $790,000
$835,000 $781,000
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes in the East Bay.
2.0
1.7
1.1 0.9
2.0 2.1
1.4 1.3
1.2 1.2
0.9 0.9
1.4
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the East Bay.
East Baypacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living
Average Days on the Market
22 21
25
32 33
28
25
20 22 21 20
23 22
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in the East Bay.
Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
108.7% 108.3% 106.8%
104.1%
100.8%
106.2%
109.4%
113.2% 111.8%
109.2% 110.3%
109.4% 107.9%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
104%
106%
108%
110%
112%
114%
116%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.
Percentage of Properties Under Contract
30.4%
37.0% 38.1%
28.1% 31.4%
36.4%
43.0% 43.6% 45.9% 44.5%
46.8%
42.3% 40.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.
A Closer Look at the East Bay
Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change
Alameda 78,330,700$ 85,211,187$ 9% 104 98 -6% 22 17 -23% 737,500$ 823,611$ 12%
Albany 19,918,380$ 27,171,000$ 36% 29 33 14% 18 14 -22% 687,000$ 790,000$ 15%
Berkeley 129,697,022$ 154,037,145$ 19% 139 157 13% 20 22 10% 800,000$ 849,000$ 6%
El Cerrito 43,894,387$ 52,041,793$ 19% 74 74 0% 25 20 -20% 579,500$ 668,500$ 15%
Kensington 21,217,300$ 13,291,500$ -37% 21 16 -24% 21 27 29% 860,000$ 797,500$ -7%
Oakland* 322,422,553$ 353,048,091$ 9% 421 410 -3% 23 22 -4% 725,000$ 790,500$ 9%
Piedmont 51,034,325$ 73,590,500$ 44% 34 37 9% 20 25 25% 1,512,750$ 1,775,000$ 17%
East Bay Snapshot: Q3 2014 vs. Q3 2013
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in selected East Bay cities; *Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705.
Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price
Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change
Under $500,000 52,597,098$ 26,961,000$ -49% 136 68 -50% 26 30 15% 409,000$ 410,000$ 0%
Over $500,000 613,917,569$ 731,430,216$ 19% 686 757 10% 22 21 -5% 785,000$ 830,000$ 6%
$500,000 - $1 million 383,970,842$ 401,994,907$ 5% 527 536 2% 21 20 -5% 725,000$ 750,000$ 3%
Over $1 million 229,946,727$ 329,435,309$ 43% 159 221 39% 24 22 -8% 1,285,000$ 1,340,000$ 4%
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Data is for SFH in the East Bay: Alameda, Albany, Berkeley, El Cerrito, Kensington, Piedmont, and Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705.
East Bay Price Range Snapshot: Q3 2014 vs. Q3 2013
Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price
Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change
Montclair / Joaquin Miller 90 87 -3% $872,036 $993,600 14%
Crocker Highlands / Grand Lake 46 43 -7% $911,661 $998,714 10%
Rockridge / Claremont 54 65 20% $1,066,850 $1,246,495 17%
Glenview / Oakmore 41 28 -32% $805,463 $805,764 0%
Laurel / Dimond 32 33 3% $458,074 $568,740 24%
Redwood Heights / Lincoln Heights 15 36 140% $644,766 $710,500 10%
Crestmont / Ridgemont / Skyline 12 12 0% $1,261,412 $921,208 -27%
Temescal / Piedmont Ave. 20 22 10% $681,125 $807,759 19%
Oakland Snapshot: Q3 2014 vs. Q3 2013
NeighborhoodHomes Sold Average Price
Source: EBRD, October 6, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in selected Oakland neighborhoods.
East Baypacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living
Brent ThomsonPresident, Marin [email protected] Redwood Highway, Suite 150 | Mill Valley, CA 94941
Marin CountyQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ3 2014
Marin County: Q3 ResultsThird-quarter real estate activity in Pacific Union’s Marin County region was a study in contrasts. July and August were exceptionally slow, but after Labor Day, the market caught fire as vacationing Bay Area residents returned home and set about the business of finding the perfect property. The higher end of the market saw strong sales, with multiple offers the rule for any well-priced home located in an attractive area.
Inventory remained slim, however, as sellers held off putting their homes on the market. The run-up in prices over the past two years offered a clear incentive to sell, but many owners were caught in a Catch-22: Selling, even at a healthy profit, puts them in the same predicament as other buyers, scrambling to find their next home in an extremely tight market.
Mill Valley and Kentfield were the most active markets in the region. Homes priced from $1 million to $1.3 million sold briskly.
Looking Forward: Unlike the start of the third quarter, real estate activity in the fourth quarter looks to be quite vigorous, continuing the momentum that broke out in September. Buyers are already scouting the region to close sales before the holiday season arrives.
Defining Marin County: Our real estate markets in Marin County include the cities of Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.
Marin Countypacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living
Median Sales Price
Months’ Supply of Inventory
$848,500 $905,000 $905,000
$852,000
$935,000 $995,000 $1,001,500 $1,030,000
$1,100,000 $1,054,100 $1,051,500
$952,500
$1,188,000
$100,000
$300,000
$500,000
$700,000
$900,000
$1,100,000
$1,300,000
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.
2.6
2.2 2.0
1.8
2.6 2.6
1.8 1.8
1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8
2.4
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
3.1
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.
Marin Countypacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living
Average Days on the Market
Percentage of Properties Under Contract
54 53
62
75
84
73
56
45 52
46 53 50 52
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.
27.2% 27.6% 26.9%
18.7%
32.0% 31.4%
40.1%
34.1% 38.2%
35.2%
30.2% 28.6%
31.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.
Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
94.2%
98.0%
96.0%
93.8% 94.5%
98.0%
95.8%
100.7%
99.3%
98.2% 97.4%
97.0% 97.7%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.
A Closer Look at Marin County
Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change
Belvedere 38,095,000$ 36,717,690$ -4% 7 12 71% 75 112 49% 2,015,000$ 2,625,000$ 30%
Corte Madera 35,549,885$ 32,481,000$ -9% 32 26 -19% 38 43 13% 1,025,605$ 1,097,500$ 7%
Fairfax 14,287,300$ 21,153,418$ 48% 19 23 21% 44 48 9% 660,000$ 884,000$ 34%
Greenbrae 26,057,000$ 24,895,656$ -4% 20 18 -10% 34 30 -12% 1,245,000$ 1,370,000$ 10%
Kentfield 56,055,133$ 77,854,211$ 39% 23 27 17% 56 84 50% 1,985,000$ 2,200,000$ 11%
Larkspur 34,309,300$ 40,610,964$ 18% 23 24 4% 52 41 -21% 1,400,000$ 1,625,000$ 16%
Mill Valley 125,782,317$ 141,726,450$ 13% 94 87 -7% 46 45 -2% 1,167,500$ 1,375,000$ 18%
Novato 120,564,600$ 123,097,260$ 2% 158 141 -11% 65 52 -20% 710,050$ 775,000$ 9%
Ross 23,572,000$ 23,265,000$ -1% 9 8 -11% 59 58 -2% 2,000,000$ 2,372,500$ 19%
San Anselmo 56,781,900$ 49,744,235$ -12% 53 46 -13% 47 57 21% 900,000$ 925,000$ 3%
San Rafael 138,345,279$ 119,198,750$ -14% 152 117 -23% 48 46 -4% 832,020$ 850,000$ 2%
Sausalito 42,517,333$ 36,863,500$ -13% 20 21 5% 60 54 -10% 1,485,000$ 1,499,000$ 1%
Tiburon 105,671,550$ 69,863,500$ -34% 42 27 -36% 53 59 11% 2,150,000$ 2,300,000$ 7%
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in selected Marin County cities.
Marin County Snapshot: Q3 2014 vs. Q3 2013
Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price
Marin Countypacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living
Linda CarrollRegional Executive, Napa [email protected] Main Street | Napa, CA 94559
Napa CountyQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ3 2014
Napa County: Q3 ResultsAfter a busy second quarter, real estate activity in Pacific Union’s Napa County region slowed to a crawl at the start of the third quarter. Homebuyers seemed to have taken off the entire month of July before business picked up the following month, only to be briefly derailed by the Aug. 24 Napa earthquake. But by September, buyers were back in the game, though with little urgency.
Shoppers benefited from an increased supply of homes for sale and more price reductions than we’ve seen in quite a while. Sellers weren’t happy to see prices roll back a bit, but after two years of substantial increases, the decline wasn’t unexpected. The market for homes in the $1-million-to-$2-million range was very busy, while midpriced homes – $450,000 to $700,000 – saw only modest sales. Activity in St. Helena remained particularly strong.
Looking Forward: We expect the momentum that started building in September to continue through October and early November, assisted by a strong supply of homes already in escrow by the end of the third quarter. Following typical patterns, fourth-quarter activity will slow by the end of the year as real estate deals give way to the holiday season.
Defining Napa County: Our real estate markets in Napa County include the cities of American Canyon, Angwin, Calistoga, Napa, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena, and Yountville. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes in Napa County.
Napa Countypacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living
Median Sales Price
Months’ Supply of Inventory
$468,500 $492,500 $501,000 $475,000
$528,000
$471,000
$563,250
$510,022
$575,000 $527,000
$592,000
$517,500
$609,000
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes in Napa County.
4.2 3.9 3.8
2.9
4.2 4.6 4.8
3.5 3.5 3.3 3.6
5.0
4.0
0.1
1.1
2.1
3.1
4.1
5.1
6.1
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in Napa County.
Napa Countypacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living
Average Days on the Market
Percentage of Properties Under Contract
81 83 87 91
127
110 100
65 71
77 81 71
91
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in Napa County.
16.7% 17.9%
17.1% 14.6%
20.7% 17.7%
25.2%
19.5%
23.6%
20.1%
16.8% 18.0%
20.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in Napa County.
Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
96.3%
93.6%
92.2%
94.1%
90.0% 90.7%
93.7%
96.4% 95.4% 95.8%
88.6%
93.6% 93.2%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in Napa County.
A Closer Look at Napa County
Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change
American Canyon 18,859,850$ 14,494,242$ -23% 49 33 -33% 71 48 -32% 370,000$ 438,500$ 19%
Angwin 2,939,858$ 9,646,900$ 228% 5 13 160% 62 136 119% 540,000$ 610,000$ 13%
Calistoga 17,066,719$ 23,056,527$ 35% 20 27 35% 90 146 62% 642,500$ 705,000$ 10%
Napa 166,752,260$ 124,411,041$ -25% 266 178 -33% 73 65 -11% 486,650$ 537,500$ 10%
St. Helena 36,257,500$ 66,880,554$ 84% 25 38 52% 179 123 -31% 1,185,000$ 1,125,000$ -5%
Yountville 6,003,000$ 5,319,000$ -11% 5 6 20% 65 93 43% 795,000$ 839,500$ 6%
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in selected Napa County cities.
Napa County Snapshot: Q3 2014 vs. Q3 2013
Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price
Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change
Under $500,000 68,887,650$ 46,728,816$ -32% 185 114 -38% 70 58 -17% 377,000$ 432,000$ 15%
$500,000 - $999,999 98,891,318$ 84,376,322$ -15% 147 124 -16% 77 81 5% 630,000$ 643,000$ 2%
$1 million - $3 million 57,118,000$ 81,259,570$ 42% 37 53 43% 132 113 -14% 1,350,000$ 1,435,000$ 6%
Over $3 million 25,252,219$ 34,333,556$ 36% 6 6 0% 158 254 61% 3,850,000$ 4,050,000$ 5%
Median Price
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in Napa County.
Napa County Price Range Snapshot: Q3 2014 vs. Q3 2013
Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market
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Patrick [email protected] Letterman Drive, Building C, Suite 500 | San Francisco, CA 94129
San FranciscoQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ3 2014
San Francisco: Q3 ResultsThe number of homes sold in Pacific Union’s San Francisco region was down somewhat in the third quarter year over year, but the average sales price was appreciably higher, reflecting substantial confidence in the local real estate market and the overall economy. Inventory remained tight, as owners held off putting their homes on the market despite the remarkable run-up in prices over the past two years. One reason for this is that once sellers become move-up buyers, they face the same problem as other home shoppers across the Bay Area: lack of inventory.
Noe Valley was particularly popular with buyers, and condominiums sold well across the entire city. The most active price point was for homes priced up to $2 million. Multiple offers remained standard for almost all fairly priced properties, although the number of offers and the intensity of bidding has waned over the past year.
Looking Forward: San Francisco’s robust economy and high-paying jobs combined with historically low interest rates gives us confidence that real estate activity will remain strong throughout the fourth quarter. The winter months will see a typical seasonal slowdown, which presents an opportunity for both buyers and sellers to get a jump on the competition.
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Single-Family Homes – Median Sales Price
Condominiums – Median Sales Price
$929,000 $903,000 $957,000
$947,000 $916,500
$1,050,000 $985,000
$1,100,000 $1,090,500
$1,175,000 $1,093,250
$971,500 $1,045,000
$100,000
$300,000
$500,000
$700,000
$900,000
$1,100,000
$1,300,000
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes in San Francisco.
$851,500 $896,500
$865,000
$770,000
$950,000 $945,000 $979,000
$920,000 $970,000
$1,050,000 $957,500 $989,528
$950,000
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000
$1,100,000
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Median sales price for condominiums in San Francisco.
San Franciscopacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living
Single-Family Homes – Months’ Supply of Inventory
2.4
1.5 1.3
1.1
2.0
1.7 1.5
1.3 1.4
1.8
1.5 1.5
2.1
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in San Francisco.
Single-Family Homes – Average Days on the Market
31 34 34
42 40
38
32 35
26 27 30 29
27
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in San Francisco.
Condominiums – Months’ Supply of Inventory
2.5
1.5
1.2 1.0
2.0
1.7
1.3 1.2 1.4 1.5
1.7
1.3
1.9
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
3.1
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in San Francisco.
San Franciscopacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living
Condominiums – Average Days on the Market
34 35 39
43 47
40
30 30 28
35 33 33
38
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Average days on market for condominiums sold in San Francisco.
Condominiums – Percentage of Properties Under Contract
30.7%
38.7% 38.7%
33.0% 33.6%
39.0%
46.2%
41.3% 40.4% 37.9%
33.6%
38.3%
29.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Percentage of condominiums under contract in San Francisco.
Single-Family Homes – Percentage of Properties Under Contract
28.7%
39.8% 37.4%
28.1% 33.0%
38.0% 42.7% 41.2%
37.3% 37.0% 36.7% 34.2%
32.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.
San Franciscopacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living
Single-Family Homes – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
107.6% 106.1% 105.6%
99.5%
103.5%
106.9%
109.3% 109.8%
113.4%
110.3% 109.7% 109.2% 110.1%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.
Condominiums – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
103.8% 103.5% 104.1%
101.3%
99.9%
105.5%
108.2% 106.9%
107.9% 106.7%
107.7%
105.2% 104.4%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
104%
106%
108%
110%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for condominiums under contract in San Francisco.
Delving into San Francisco’s Districts
San Francisco is defined by 10 separate districts, each of which encompasses several neighborhoods.
District 1: Inner Richmond, Central Richmond, Outer Richmond, JordanPark/Laurel Heights, Lake, Lone Mountain, Sea Cliff.
District 2: Outer Sunset, Central Sunset, Inner Sunset, Outer Parkside, Parkside, Inner Parkside, Golden Gate Heights.
District 3: Pine Lake Park, Merced Manor, Lake Shore, Lakeside, Stonestown, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights,
Oceanview.
District 4: Balboa Terrace, Diamond Heights, Forest Hill, Forest Hill Extension, Forest Knolls, Ingleside Terrace, Midtown
Terrace, Miraloma Park, Monterey Heights, Mount Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, St. Francis Wood,
Sunnyside, West Portal, Westwood Highlands, Westwood Park.
District 5: Buena Vista/Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Cole Valley/Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights,
Duboce Triangle, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights, Glen Park, Haight-Ashbury, Mission Dolores, Noe Valley, Twin Peaks.
District 6: Alamo Square, Anza Vista, Hayes Valley, Lower Pacific Heights, North Panhandle, Western Addition.
District 7: Cow Hollow, Marina, Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights.
District 8: Downtown, Financial District/Barbary Coast, Nob Hill, North Beach, North Waterfront, Russian Hill, Telegraph Hill,
Tenderloin, Van Ness/Civic Center.
District 9: Bernal Heights, Central Waterfront/Dogpatch, Inner Mission, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, South Beach,
South of Market, Yerba Buena.
District 10: Bayview, Bayview Heights, Candlestick Point, Crocker Amazon, Excelsior, Hunters Point, Little Hollywood,
Outer Mission, Mission Terrace, Portola, Silver Terrace, Visitacion Valley.
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Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change
District 1 86,499,225$ 97,259,105$ 12% 60 59 -2% 34 27 -21% 1,200,000$ 1,380,000$ 15%
District 2 134,200,176$ 128,508,231$ -4% 145 120 -17% 29 26 -10% 855,000$ 965,000$ 13%
District 3 39,754,600$ 42,864,411$ 8% 55 51 -7% 29 32 10% 660,000$ 800,000$ 21%
District 4 96,121,200$ 91,523,168$ -5% 78 69 -12% 37 23 -38% 1,102,500$ 1,150,000$ 4%
District 5 165,617,010$ 145,567,050$ -12% 93 72 -23% 27 28 4% 1,550,000$ 1,865,500$ 20%
District 6 19,896,000$ 17,779,000$ -11% 12 7 -42% 49 15 -69% 1,450,000$ 2,750,000$ 90%
District 7 174,725,200$ 119,095,000$ -32% 32 26 -19% 38 40 5% 4,935,000$ 3,950,000$ -20%
District 8 12,725,000$ 12,808,888$ 1% 4 5 25% 98 24 -76% 2,500,000$ 1,810,000$ -28%
District 9 75,038,591$ 86,251,300$ 15% 70 69 -1% 33 27 -18% 948,625$ 1,150,000$ 21%
District 10 94,413,456$ 98,233,041$ 4% 156 136 -13% 40 34 -15% 618,500$ 706,500$ 14%
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco districts.
San Francisco Snapshot: SFH, Q3 2014 vs. Q3 2013
Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price
Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change
District 1 36,014,999$ 46,954,223$ 30% 39 47 21% 31 33 6% 900,000$ 975,000$ 8%
District 2 8,360,750$ 6,058,000$ -28% 12 7 -42% 32 19 -41% 822,500$ 880,000$ 7%
District 3 3,656,000$ 2,027,000$ -45% 7 4 -43% 35 31 -11% 460,000$ 453,500$ -1%
District 4 8,380,301$ 7,458,650$ -11% 14 11 -21% 31 40 29% 602,500$ 585,000$ -3%
District 5 124,919,923$ 98,721,241$ -21% 112 78 -30% 30 29 -3% 1,087,500$ 1,252,500$ 15%
District 6 61,193,000$ 58,870,000$ -4% 68 64 -6% 30 26 -13% 842,500$ 914,000$ 8%
District 7 117,032,969$ 97,944,500$ -16% 86 64 -26% 32 29 -9% 1,219,000$ 1,417,500$ 16%
District 8 103,686,401$ 126,457,804$ 22% 109 111 2% 45 39 -13% 750,000$ 880,000$ 17%
District 9 208,190,551$ 236,518,862$ 14% 234 218 -7% 39 37 -5% 805,000$ 925,000$ 15%
District 10 5,645,000$ 10,912,659$ 93% 15 21 40% 99 57 -42% 360,000$ 545,000$ 51%
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco districts.
San Francisco Snapshot: Condos, Q3 2014 vs. Q3 2013
Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price
San Franciscopacificunion.com | A Member of Real Living
Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change
Under $1 million 302,696,070$ 218,647,467$ -28% 417 285 -32% 35 31 -11% 740,000$ 771,000$ 4%
$1 million - $3 million 377,841,388$ 446,951,727$ 18% 248 291 17% 30 26 -13% 1,365,000$ 1,400,000$ 3%
Over $3 million 218,453,000$ 174,290,000$ -20% 40 38 -5% 45 36 -20% 4,525,000$ 3,875,000$ -14%
San Francisco Price Range Snapshot: SFH, Q3 2014 vs. Q3 2013
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco County.
Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price
Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change
Under $1 million 313,877,534$ 233,848,479$ -25% 454 327 -28% 39 37 -5% 707,500$ 735,000$ 4%
$1 million - $2 million 285,022,547$ 338,322,460$ 19% 214 254 19% 33 31 -6% 1,289,000$ 1,295,000$ 0%
Over $2 million 78,179,813$ 119,752,000$ 53% 28 44 57% 35 36 3% 2,344,000$ 2,500,000$ 7%
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco County.
San Francisco Price Range Snapshot: Condos, Q3 2014 vs. Q3 2013
Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price
David BarcaVice President, Silicon [email protected] El Camino Real, Suite 220 | Menlo Park CA 94025
Silicon ValleyQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ3 2014
Silicon Valley: Q3 ResultsReal estate activity zigzagged during the third quarter in Pacific Union’s Silicon Valley region, slowing to a crawl in July and August, then going gangbusters in early September before decelerating again. High-end markets such as Palo Alto, Menlo Park, and Hillsborough, however, remained busy throughout the quarter.
The region has some of the most expensive homes in the nation, and in Menlo Park, no homes on the market were priced at less than $1 million. Across Silicon Valley, any property priced under $4 million sold briskly.
Home prices continued rising throughout the quarter, although not at the pace seen a year earlier. Multiple offers remained standard, though bidders weren’t as frantic as they were last year. Similarly, off-market sales, while still common, were not as rampant as in 2013. While a balanced market for both buyers and sellers remains a long way off in Silicon Valley, the region is slowly moving in that direction.
Looking Forward: We expect moderate activity during the fourth quarter before sales slow during the year-end holiday season. Early indications suggest an increased supply of homes will hit the market during October, helping to drive sales in the months ahead.
Defining Silicon Valley: Our real estate markets in the Silicon Valley region include the cities and towns of Atherton, Los Altos (excluding county area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes in these communities.
Defining the Mid-Peninsula: Our real estate markets in the Mid-Peninsula subregion include the cities of Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area). Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes in these communities.
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Median Sales Price
Months’ Supply of Inventory
$2,205,000 $2,250,018 $2,100,000
$2,325,000 $2,400,000
$2,358,000
$2,617,500 $2,466,000 $2,425,000 $2,400,000
$2,433,000 $2,450,000 $2,592,500
$100,000
$600,000
$1,100,000
$1,600,000
$2,100,000
$2,600,000
$3,100,000
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Source: Terradatum, September 30, 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Silicon Valley communities:
Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.
3.1
1.7 1.6
1.1
2.4 2.5
1.6 1.6 1.5
1.2 1.4 1.3
2.0
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
3.1
3.6
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Source: Terradatum, September 30, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these SIlicon Valley communities:
Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.
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Average Days on the Market
37
30 30
37
55
29 25
20 19 23
28
37
29
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Source: Terradatum, September 30, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Silicon Valley communities:
Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.
Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
99.7%
101.2%
102.5% 102.1%
100.1%
104.5%
102.8%
106.2%
104.6% 103.8%
102.1%
101.0%
102.3%
96%
98%
100%
102%
104%
106%
108%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Source: Terradatum, September 30, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Silicon Valley communities:
Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.
Percentage of Properties Under Contract
27.9%
31.7% 32.5%
24.5%
29.7%
33.7%
43.9%
36.6%
42.4%
37.8% 33.4%
37.4% 38.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Source: Terradatum, September 30, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Silicon Valley communities:
Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.
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A Closer Look at Silicon Valley
Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change
Atherton 158,935,415$ 96,898,888$ -39% 26 20 -23% 81 52 -36% 3,400,000$ 4,310,000$ 27%
Los Altos* 196,979,680$ 162,963,891$ -17% 89 66 -26% 22 17 -23% 2,100,000$ 2,312,500$ 10%
Los Altos Hills 109,805,330$ 85,149,447$ -22% 33 22 -33% 51 37 -27% 2,778,750$ 3,289,000$ 18%
Menlo Park** 141,801,315$ 187,971,900$ 33% 78 85 9% 28 20 -29% 1,500,000$ 2,025,000$ 35%
Palo Alto 245,065,376$ 269,975,615$ 10% 114 88 -23% 17 16 -6% 1,889,194$ 2,549,000$ 35%
Portola Valley 46,767,000$ 61,395,500$ 31% 18 17 -6% 44 87 98% 1,900,000$ 2,998,000$ 58%
Woodside 46,798,500$ 110,778,000$ 137% 20 31 55% 72 88 22% 1,862,500$ 2,320,000$ 25%
Source: Terradatum, September 30, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in selected Silicon Valley cities. *Excludes County area **Excludes east of U.S. 101
Silicon Valley Snapshot: Q3 2014 vs. Q3 2013
Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price
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Median Sales Price
$1,250,000 $1,204,000
$1,263,500
$1,562,500
$1,360,000 $1,311,375 $1,300,500
$1,475,000 $1,600,000
$1,476,000 $1,400,000
$1,328,000 $1,375,000
$100,000
$300,000
$500,000
$700,000
$900,000
$1,100,000
$1,300,000
$1,500,000
$1,700,000
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Source: Terradatum, September 30, 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes in these San Mateo County communities:
Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).
Average Days on the Market
26
19
25
32
50
33
25
18
35
16
33
27 23
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Source: Terradatum, September 30, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these San Mateo County communities:
Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).
Months’ Supply of Inventory
1.9
1.5
1.1 0.8
1.7
2.5
1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2
1.4
1.1
1.4
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
3.1
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Source: Terradatum, September 30, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these San Mateo County communities:
Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).
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Percentage of Properties Under Contract
32.2%
38.8%
44.6%
28.6% 27.9%
35.5%
49.3% 45.9% 42.6%
34.0%
45.9% 40.9% 42.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Source: Terradatum, September 30, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these San Mateo County communities:
Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).
A Closer Look at the Mid-Peninsula
Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change
Burlingame* 96,613,423$ 87,030,466$ -10% 59 53 -10% 24 17 -29% 1,538,000$ 1,530,000$ -1%
Hillsborough 202,796,000$ 175,011,388$ -14% 49 37 -24% 82 67 -18% 3,250,000$ 3,125,000$ -4%
San Mateo** 189,807,490$ 170,323,007$ -10% 166 139 -16% 17 21 24% 948,500$ 1,110,000$ 17%
Source: Terradatum, September 30, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in selected San Mateo County cities. * Excludes Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center ** Excludes the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area
Mid-Peninsula Snapshot: Q3 2014 vs. Q3 2013
Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price
Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
99.8%
104.0% 103.0%
98.0% 98.8%
102.9% 103.2% 103.6%
102.4%
103.9%
101.1% 101.2%
100.2%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
101%
102%
103%
104%
105%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Source: Terradatum, September 30, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these San Mateo County communities:
Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).
Rick LawsSenior Vice President, Sonoma [email protected] Mendocino Avenue, Suite 210 | Santa Rosa, CA 95403
Sonoma CountyQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ3 2014
Sonoma County: Q3 ResultsIt has been a busy year for real estate in in Pacific Union’s Sonoma County region, and the third quarter was no exception. Other than a slight seasonal slowdown in August and September, buyers were motivated, and sellers were ready to make deals.
Inventory nonetheless remained constrained throughout the quarter. Owners have good reasons to put their homes on the market after two years of steadily rising prices, but they remain reluctant to do so. With the supply of properties tight across the Bay Area, owners apparently fear they could have a tough time finding a new home when they sell their current one.
Sales of high-end properties climbed in the third quarter, with a 45 percent increase for homes priced from $900,000 to $1 million. Meanwhile, lower-priced home sales dropped off, as the region exhausted its remaining supply of distressed properties. Prices rose at a healthy pace overall – especially in Petaluma and parts of Santa Rosa – while Cloverdale and coastal areas saw prices pull back.
Looking Forward: Demand for homes remains strong, interest rates remain low, and the Bay Area economy shows no sign of slowing. If the supply of homes picks up as we expect, buyers will be waiting and ready to sign contracts.
Defining Sonoma County: Our real estate markets in Sonoma County include the cities of Cotati, Healdsburg, Penngrove, Petaluma, Rohnert Park, Santa Rosa, Sebastopol, and Windsor. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes and farms and ranches in Sonoma County.
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Median Sales Price
Months’ Supply of Inventory
$447,650 $457,500 $450,000
$465,000 $460,000 $449,325
$491,500 $468,950
$487,500 $495,000 $508,500
$475,000 $499,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.
2.7
2.2 2.4
2.0
2.5 2.5
2.1
2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0
2.3
2.0
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
3.1
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.
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Average Days on the Market
67 67
78 79 81
72 73 74
59 57 62 61
65
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes and farms/ranches sold in Sonoma County.
Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
96.3% 96.2%
94.3%
96.9%
93.7%
95.9% 96.0%
96.8%
98.9% 98.4%
96.9% 97.6%
96.7%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.
Percentage of Properties Under Contract
24.9% 26.8%
24.8% 21.9%
27.4%
33.6% 31.7% 31.8% 31.7% 30.4% 30.0% 29.0% 30.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.
A Closer Look at Sonoma County
Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change
Healdsburg 63,632,215$ 52,491,350$ -18% 60 51 -15% 80 72 -10% 762,500$ 659,000$ -14%
Petaluma 104,276,595$ 118,988,658$ 14% 185 186 1% 61 53 -13% 488,000$ 551,500$ 13%
Rohnert Park 28,469,750$ 28,065,000$ -1% 70 65 -7% 50 60 20% 406,500$ 438,000$ 8%
Santa Rosa 248,214,667$ 302,099,044$ 22% 520 553 6% 58 57 -2% 409,250$ 455,000$ 11%
Sebastopol 66,608,757$ 53,099,391$ -20% 91 77 -15% 78 60 -23% 660,000$ 617,000$ -7%
Windsor 42,140,078$ 40,420,650$ -4% 85 79 -7% 75 44 -41% 455,000$ 485,000$ 7%
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma County cities.
Sonoma County Snapshot: Q3 2014 vs. Q3 2013
Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price
Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change
Under $1 million 619,167,540$ 648,609,708$ 5% 1,301 1,266 -3% 64 60 -6% 435,000$ 470,000$ 8%
$1 million and over 178,983,304$ 196,648,093$ 10% 100 115 15% 137 95 -31% 1,347,500$ 1,360,000$ 1%
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma County cities.
Sonoma County Price Range Snapshot: Q3 2014 vs. Q3 2013
Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price
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Jill SilvasRegional Executive, Sonoma [email protected] West Napa Street, Suite 200 | Sonoma, CA 95476
Sonoma ValleyQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ3 2014
Sonoma Valley: Q3 ResultsReal estate activity in Pacific Union’s Sonoma Valley region remained robust during the third quarter, but there were also signs of the market taking a deep breath. Those signs included a slight slowing of sales during the latter part of the quarter, more reductions on properties that had been priced too aggressively, and available homes staying on the market longer than we have seen in previous quarters.
While there is almost always a bit of imbalance between buyers’ and sellers’ expectations, that disparity seemed to be more evident recently. The market was still strong, but the frenetic pace of sales activity seen in recent years gave way to more balanced conditions. Unlike other regions in the Bay Area, buyers in Sonoma Valley had an ample supply of homes to choose from, and new listings came on the market regularly.
Looking Forward: We expect the fourth quarter to continue trends seen in the third. Sellers will need to be realistic about pricing and length of time on the market, and buyers will need to pay attention to the continued rise in home prices. After a typical slowdown during the holiday season, we are optimistic about the first quarter of 2015. Interest rates should remain low, inventory should stabilize, and buyer interest in homeownership will remain strong.
Defining Sonoma Valley: Our real estate markets in Sonoma Valley include the cities of Glen Ellen, Kenwood, and Sonoma. Sales data in the charts below refers to all residential properties – including single-family homes, condominiums, and farms and ranches – in these communities.
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Median Sales Price
Months’ Supply of Inventory
$586,000 $565,000
$500,000 $477,000
$608,500 $610,672
$500,000
$645,000
$540,000 $555,000
$697,500
$525,000 $580,250
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.
4.4
2.5 2.4
3.0
2.3
3.0 3.3
3.0
2.3
3.2
2.1
2.9 2.5
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
3.1
3.6
4.1
4.6
5.1
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.
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Average Days on the Market
94
64
51
69
80 77
105
78
50
61
77
56
96
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches sold in Sonoma Valley.
Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
92.4%
93.9%
96.6%
94.6%
92.2% 91.8% 92.5%
96.8%
99.5%
96.7% 95.1%
97.5%
92.5%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.
Percentage of Properties Under Contract
23.4% 24.3%
20.2%
22.7% 23.9% 26.6%
28.3%
30.5%
23.1%
27.2%
22.3%
26.5% 27.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.
A Closer Look at Sonoma Valley
Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change
Glen Ellen 11,316,000$ 16,107,110$ 42% 8 15 88% 139 117 -16% 1,367,500$ 829,500$ -39%
Kenwood 7,230,000$ 6,862,000$ -5% 7 5 -29% 94 97 3% 900,000$ 789,000$ -12%
Sonoma 112,965,830$ 109,368,425$ -3% 148 136 -8% 72 72 0% 507,500$ 552,600$ 9%
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma Valley cities.
Sonoma Valley Snapshot: Q3 2014 vs. Q3 2013
Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price
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Sally GardnerRegional Executive, Tahoe/TruckeeTahoe City 530.581.1882 | Truckee 530.587.7098 | Squaw Valley [email protected]
Tahoe/TruckeeQuarterly Real Estate ReportQ3 2014
Tahoe/Truckee: Q3 ResultsThe third quarter was a busy time for both buyers and sellers in Pacific Union’s Tahoe/Truckee region, with an abundance of properties on the market. Sales activity was generally strong across the region but spotty in pockets: Some ski resorts and communities reported remarkably strong sales, while others held steady or posted declines. Measured by price, luxury homes — $2 million-plus properties — sold extremely well during the quarter, and prices continued rising across the overall market.
Homes in the region that were fairly priced attracted the most interest from buyers, while overpriced homes lingered on the market for 60 to 90 days or longer without an offer. Tahoe/Truckee is primarily a second-home market for buyers from the Bay Area, Sacramento, and Reno areas, and those regions’ vigorous economies help drive real estate here.
Looking Forward: The coming winter months will remain busy, as visiting skiers check out the area and become tempted to purchase homes. Prices in Tahoe/Truckee have not yet reached their prerecession peaks, so buyers can still track down bargains. Sellers will find plenty of willing and able buyers, so long as their properties are fairly priced.
Defining Tahoe/Truckee: Our real estate markets in Tahoe/Truckee include the communities of Alpine Meadows, Donner Lake, Donner Summit, Lahontan, Martis Valley, North Shore Lake Tahoe, Northstar, Squaw Valley, Tahoe City, Tahoe Donner, Truckee, and the West Shore of Lake Tahoe. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes and condominiums in these communities.
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Single-Family Homes – Median Sales Price
Condominiums – Median Sales Price
$550,000 $545,000 $560,000
$614,605 $605,000
$699,000
$610,000
$530,000
$629,000
$529,277
$595,000
$665,000
$585,000
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Median sales price for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.
$350,250 $381,500 $374,500
$345,000
$262,000
$390,000
$290,000
$334,000
$387,500
$350,000
$445,000
$345,000
$382,500
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Median sales price for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.
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Single-Family Homes – Months’ Supply of Inventory
4.9 5.1 5.3
6.2
8.5
6.6 7.3
6.8
5.7
8.5
10.6
7.1 6.8
0.1
2.1
4.1
6.1
8.1
10.1
12.1
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.
Single-Family Homes – Average Days on the Market
97 101 94
107
93 100
140
101 95
72 66
54
87
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in the Tahoe/Truckee region.
Condominiums – Months’ Supply of Inventory
5.5 5.2
7.0 7.2
8.8
12.9
11.4
8.9 7.8
10.6
8.5
6.8 6.8
0.1
2.1
4.1
6.1
8.1
10.1
12.1
14.1
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.
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Condominiums – Average Days on the Market
159
113
159
122
150 150 137
54
114
83
127
53
200
0
50
100
150
200
250
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Average days on market for condominiums sold in the Tahoe/Truckee region.
Condominiums – Percentage of Properties Under Contract
12.3% 12.9%
6.9%
9.1%
7.1%
11.5%
10.5% 8.9%
8.2%
9.6%
13.8%
12.3%
10.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Percentage of condominiums under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.
Single-Family Homes – Percentage of Properties Under Contract
13.2% 12.9%
10.9%
8.8%
13.8%
11.3%
17.5%
15.2%
9.2% 8.7%
11.6% 12.8% 13.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.
Single-Family Homes – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
94.6%
91.5%
95.0%
92.8% 92.1%
91.3%
89.2%
95.4%
94.1%
95.6% 96.2%
95.2%
93.2%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.
Condominiums – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
94.7%
91.2%
95.4%
93.0% 92.5%
96.1%
89.5%
94.6% 94.8%
96.7%
94.1%
96.0% 96.0%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for condominiums under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.
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A Closer Look at Tahoe/Truckee
Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change
Alpine Meadows 2,637,500$ 5,833,000$ 121% 5 6 20% 76 64 -16% 450,000$ 921,500$ 105%
Donner Lake 4,494,000$ 9,438,000$ 110% 8 12 50% 32 79 147% 492,500$ 485,000$ -2%
Donner Summit 6,755,500$ 5,918,000$ -12% 17 8 -53% 56 141 152% 372,500$ 495,000$ 33%
Martis Valley 39,104,950$ 51,785,940$ 32% 33 30 -9% 130 89 -32% 550,000$ 727,500$ 32%
North Lake Tahoe 66,110,985$ 70,792,500$ 7% 84 59 -30% 81 76 -6% 526,450$ 585,000$ 11%
Northstar 7,635,275$ 9,502,000$ 24% 8 11 38% 128 61 -52% 750,000$ 830,000$ 11%
Squaw Valley 11,634,500$ 1,312,000$ -89% 4 1 -75% 392 46 -88% 1,257,750$ 1,312,000$ 4%
Tahoe City 28,335,450$ 23,807,500$ -16% 29 16 -45% 108 59 -45% 735,000$ 685,000$ -7%
Tahoe Donner 41,443,200$ 39,336,650$ -5% 68 58 -15% 59 52 -12% 555,000$ 617,250$ 11%
Truckee 50,994,950$ 64,466,940$ 26% 58 50 -14% 97 78 -20% 513,750$ 587,000$ 14%
West Shore 60,424,850$ 39,195,400$ -35% 51 40 -22% 78 79 1% 650,000$ 598,250$ -8%
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Data is for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.
Tahoe/Truckee Snapshot: SFH, Q3 2014 vs. Q3 2013
Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price
Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change Q3 '13 Q3 '14 % change
Alpine Meadows 705,000$ 375,000$ -47% 2 1 -50% 98 13 -87% 352,500$ 375,000$ 6%
Donner Lake 347,803$ 388,000$ 12% 4 5 25% 22 864 3827% 57,402$ 80,000$ 39%
Donner Summit 210,000$ 165,000$ -21% 1 2 100% 203 239 18% 210,000$ 82,500$ -61%
North Lake Tahoe 11,239,000$ 9,444,500$ -16% 27 24 -11% 172 79 -54% 300,000$ 294,000$ -2%
NorthStar 5,174,500$ 4,100,250$ -21% 12 9 -25% 233 102 -56% 322,500$ 385,000$ 19%
Squaw Valley 4,746,037$ 2,348,350$ -51% 12 4 -67% 348 40 -89% 409,750$ 587,900$ 43%
Tahoe City 6,782,000$ 6,767,000$ 0% 17 13 -24% 156 84 -46% 289,000$ 382,500$ 32%
Tahoe Donner 2,703,500$ 3,365,350$ 24% 10 12 20% 26 104 300% 228,000$ 276,925$ 21%
Truckee 8,170,525$ 10,089,375$ 23% 13 18 38% 99 72 -27% 579,000$ 439,500$ -24%
West Shore 1,350,000$ 7,820,000$ 479% 2 6 200% 95 131 38% 675,000$ 552,500$ -18%
Tahoe/Truckee Snapshot: Condos, Q3 2014 vs. Q3 2013
Source: Terradatum, October 7, 2014. Data is for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.
Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price
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