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Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Preliminary Results Year ended 31 December 2007
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
This presentation does not constitute an invitation to underwrite, subscribe for, or otherwise acquire or dispose of any International Power plc shares.
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements with respect to the financial condition, results, operations and businesses of International Power plc. These statements and forecasts involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results or developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements and forecasts.
Past performance is no guide to future performance and persons wishing to invest in International Power should consult an independent financial advisor before doing so.
Disclaimer
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Philip Cox Chief Executive Officer
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Highlights
Good financial performance– profit from operations of £904 million - up 17% – EPS of 27.1p - up 21%– strong free cash flow of £653 million - up 43%– 29% increase in full year dividend recommended from 7.9p to
10.16p
Regional headlines– strong performance in Europe– disappointing performance in Australia – cool US summer– good performance in Middle East and Asia
Portfolio growth continues– Maestrale, Fujairah F2, Elecgas and Uch
Active portfolio management– Malakoff disposal and common ownership platform for UK
assets Expect 2008 to be another year of growth
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
All numbers in this presentation exclude exceptional items and specific IAS39 mark to market movements, unless stated otherwise
Financial Review Mark Williamson, CFO
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Income statement
North AmericaEuropeMiddle EastAustraliaAsiaCorporate costsProfit from operationsInterestPBTTaxMinority interestProfit for the year
EPS Total DPSDividend payout ratio
136 574
68 82 96
(52)904 (308)596 (113)
(77)406
27.1p10.16p37.5%
2007 2006changeYear ended 31 December
101 450
52 124
91 (45)
773 (248)525 (122)
(71)332
22.4p7.9p35%
35% 28% 31%
(34%)5%
17%
14%
22%
21% 29%
£m £m
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Profit from operations up 17%
500
£m
£904m
£773m£35m
£124m £16m
(£42m)
£5m
(£7m)
600
700
800
900
1,000
2006PFO
NorthAmerica
Europe MiddleEast
Australia Asia CorporateCosts
2007PFO
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
North America
Texas Full year contribution from
Coleto Creek– dust emissions control
installation complete
Mild weather Hays extended outage complete
New England Forward capacity market
Profit from operationsup 35%
PAT of JVs and associates PBIT of subsidiaries
£101m
£136m
2006 2007
£108m
£73m
£28m£28m
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Europe
Strong contribution from Deeside, Rugeley and First Hydro
First full year contributions from Levanto and Indian Queens
Four month contribution from Maestrale in 2007
ISAB impacted by change of fuel indexation and planned outage
Profit from operationsup 28%
£450m
£574m
2006 2007
£521m
£381m
£69m £53m
PAT of JVs and associates PBIT of subsidiaries
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
First Hydro performance
Another excellent year
2006 benefited from:– high gas prices– high power price volatility– unreliable capacity from coal
and nuclear
2007 benefited from: – fewer coal plants to provide
frequency response– increased water availability– gas and power price volatility– 2007 peak/off peak
differential helped by low phase 1 CO2 prices
PFOup 12%
£119m
£133m
2006 2007
(1) First Hydro Company reported results are under UK GAAP
(1)
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Additional capacity on-line at Tihama, Ras Laffan B and Umm Al Nar
Hidd development fee in H1 2006
Fujairah F2 development fee in H2 2007
Middle East
Profit from operationsup 31%
£68m
2006 2007
£44m
£32m
£52m
£20m £24m
PAT of JVs and associates PBIT of subsidiaries
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Planned outages at Pelican Point and Hazelwood
Unplanned outages at Loy Yang B and Hazelwood
Interconnector constraint due to bushfire
Inter-regional pricing differences 2008 pricing significantly
stronger
Profit from operationsdown 34%
£124m
£82m
2006 2007
£83m
Australia
£121m
PAT of JVs and associates PBIT of subsidiaries
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Asia
KAPCO impacted by end of tax holiday
Strong operational performances and high load factors led to generation and availability bonuses
Completed sale of Malakoff
Profit from operationsup 5%
£91m£3m
£96m
£14m
2006 2007
£88m£82m
PAT of JVs and Associates PBIT of subsidiaries
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Effective tax rate and interest cover
PFOJVs and associates Interest Tax Minority interest
PBITTotal interest Subsidiaries JVs and associates Interest coverProfit before total taxTotal tax Subsidiaries JVs and associates
Effective tax rate
2.7x2.6x
904
91 60 -
151 1,055
(308)(91)
(399)
656
(113)(60)
(173)
26%
773
99 55
1 155 928
(248)(99)
(347)
581
(122)(55)
(177)
30%
2007 2006Year ended 31 December £m £m
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Exceptional items
Profit on disposal of Malakoff
Profit on partial disposal of UK subsidiaries
Impairment of Saltend gas contract
Provision against investment in Biox
Impairment reversal of Deeside
Compensation in respect of TXU tolling contract
Compensation for breach of contract
Exceptional gain – pre tax
Remeasurement of net deferred tax liabilities of Maestrale
Taxation on impairment of Saltend gas contract
Taxation on Deeside impairment reversal
Taxation on compensation from TXU
Exceptional gain – post tax
-
-
-
-
36
14
5
55
-
-
(11)
(4)
40
115
174
(47)
(9)
-
-
-
233
49
14
-
-
296
2007 2006£mYear ended 31 December £m
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Free cash flow
Operating cash flow from subsidiaries
Dividends - JVs and associates
Capex - maintenance
Cash generated from operations
Interest paid
Tax paid
Free cash flow
£m
784
113
(128)
769
(256)
(57)
456
992
145
(71)
1,066
(312)
(101)
653
2007 2006Year ended 31 December
39%
43%
% change
2007 free cash flow enhanced by: Working capital reductions, including reduced margining
and investment deposits with counter parties Lower than average maintenance capital expenditure in
2007
£m
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Includes only subsidiaries
Intervals between major maintenance varies between three and four years. 2007 was a year of low spend
Average annual cost of current portfolio c.£120m
Capital expenditure - maintenance
Maintenance capex
£72m
2005 2007
£128m
2006 2008e
£71m
c£130m
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Movement in net debt
Free cash flow
Growth capex
Acquisitions and investments
Disposals
Exceptional receipts
- TXU and contract compensation
Dividend paid
FX & other
Dividends paid to minorities
Increase in net debt
Opening net debt
Acquired net debt
Closing net debt
456
(142)
(818)
1
19
(67)
271
(54)
(334)
(3,060)
(181)
(3,575)
653
(160)
(842)
418
-
(160)
(250)
(35)
(376)
(3,575)
(711)
(4,662)
2007 2006Year ended 31 December £m £m
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Balance sheet
Non-current assets
Goodwill and intangibles
PP&E
Investments
Other long-term assets
Net current (liabilities)/assets
Non-current liabilities
Net debt
Net assets
Gearing
Debt capitalisation
Net debt of JVs and associates
425
4,435
1,290
1,270
7,420
14
(1,119)
(3,575)
2,740
130%
57%
(1,524)
901
5,721
1,292
1,530
9,444
(355)
(1,420)
(4,662)
3,007
155%
61%
(1,297)
2007 2006£mAs at 31 December £m
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Capital structure and funding
Robust capital structure Non recourse debt markets open for business
– project refinancing – new project financing
Fixed interest rate is a significant portion of gross debt
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Net debt structure
Cash and cash equivalentsRecourse debt Convertible bond (2023)(2)
Convertible bond (2013)(2)
Non recourse debt IPM - acquisition debt IPM - Mitsui preferred equity North America Europe Middle East Australia Asia
Total net cash/(debt)
1,161
(115)(140)(255)
(243)(151)(876)
(2,913)(315)
(1,035)(35)
(5,568)
(4,662)
Total£m
IPRCorpora
te
(1) Project debt is secured solely on the assets and cash flow of the project concerned (non recourse)(2) The convertible bonds are shown at their final maturity date although they can be converted earlier
As at 31 December 2007
Project cash/(debt) (1)
290
(115)(140)(255)
- - - - - - - -
35
871
- - -
(243)(151)(876)
(2,913)(315)
(1,035)(35)
(5,568)
(4,697)
JVs and associatesoff-balance sheet
net debt(1)
- -
(158)(195)(612)(62)
(270)(1,297)
(1,297)
Maturity
20232013
20122008
2010-20132010-20262016-20252008-2019
2020
Maturity
2013-20192009-20202021-2030
2009 -20122008-2018
£m £m £m
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
65-110bp 110-165bpMargin 23 year term20 year termTenor US$2,140mUS$1,330mAmount
Fujairah F2 (December 2007)Umm Al Nar (June 2003)
115 – 140bp120-180bpMargin 10 year term TrA: 15 year term/TrB 9 year termTenor A$190mA$240mAmount
Pelican Point (February 2008)Pelican Point (May 1999)
Pricing reduced by 25bpConfidentialMargin 20102008 (later extended to 2009)Tenor US$850mUS$640mAmount
Extended facility (October 2007)Initial facility (June 2005)Corporate revolver
Debt market updatePost credit crunchPre credit crunch
65-100bp50 – 65bpMargin 27 year term14 year termTenor €494m€420mAmount
Elecgas (March 2008)Tejo (June 2006)
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Interest rate exposure
% of Debt Fixed
Policy is to keep fixed interest rate on approximately 70% of gross debt
Cash on deposit is held at variable interest rates At 70% fixed, a 100 basis points change in interest rates
equates to approximately a 0.3p change in EPS
0
20
40
60
80
100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
PFO (£m)£773m
£536m
£222m
2004 2005 2006
Free cash flow (£m)
£456m
£285m
£104m
2004 2005 2006
Earnings per share (pence)
22.4p
14.6p
8.6p
2004 2005 2006
Dividend per share (pence)
7.9p
4.5p
2.5p
2004 2005 2006
Recommended dividend
(1)
(1)
£904m
2007 2007
£653m
27.1p
2007 2007
10.16p
Financial summary
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Philip Cox Chief Executive Officer
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
ERCOT Reserve Margin
US
Market fundamentals remain strong
Steady growth in demand Natural gas price firming –
positive for wholesale power prices
2007 summer was cooler than average year
– lower peak demand / market heat rates
– lower fuel demand also softened prices
‘Normal’ summer weather will bring increased market heat rates
Margins for coal remain good– Powder River Basin coal price
attractive for Coleto
Texas
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Q1 2008 Projection
Q4 2007 Projection
%
Notes:• Oak Grove 1,634 MW brought forward to 2010• 293 MW of net new capacity additions• Wind generation assumed at 8.7% of installed capacity
Target Reserve Margin
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
US
Market fundamentals are good Forward Capacity Market
- first auction in February– auction oversubscribed
- capacity price $4.25/kW month (2010/2011)
– capacity requirements to be met mainly through demand side management
New England
0
4
8
12
16
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
With new demand-sideresources
Without new demand-side resources
New England Reserve Margin
%
IPR’s modern efficient CCGTs well positioned – no significant new build– demand side management initiatives add uncertainty– more reliance on existing higher heat rate plant
RGGI emissions trading system planned to commence in January 2009
– timetable and structure uncertain– IPR CCGTs highly efficient compared to average plant– lightly contracted for 2009
Target Reserve Margin
Notes:• First FCM auction for 2010/2011 resulted in - 1,188 MW of new demand side resources - 626 MW of new supply additions
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
IPR forecast% of anticipated output for the full yearIncludes FCM receiptsExcludes SO2 costs
(1)
(2)
(3)
Commercial summary
US
Achieved dark spread ($/MWh)
Load factor
Forward contracted
Coleto Creek
2007
29
75%
n/a
29
90%
95%
2008
(2)
Full Year(1)
Midlothian
Achieved spark spread ($/MWh)
Load factor
Forward contracted
14
55%
n/a
15
55%
70%(2)
Hays
Achieved spark spread ($/MWh)
Load factor
Forward contracted
10
45%
n/a
14
55%
70%(2)
Achieved spark spread ($/MWh)
Load factor
Forward contracted
New England 2007
16
60%
n/a
18
55%
90%
2008
(2)
Full Year
(3)
(1)(3)
(4)
(4)
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Europe
Long-term fundamentals remain attractive
Uncertainty on available capacity – restricted running of opted-
out coal plant and potential closure before 2015
– further pressure on coal capacity due to rising coal price and carbon costs
– ongoing retirement of nuclear
– potential unreliability of plant approaching closure
– wind generation – unpredictable load factors / availability
Forward gas prices have strengthened
– maintains upward pressure on UK wholesale prices
UK market fundamentals
UK Reserve Margin
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Reserve margin without earlyLCPD retirementsReserve margin
with early LCPD retirements
Target Reserve
%
Notes:• Peak demand estimate updated for lower winter 2007 demand• Includes impact of 5,912 MW of Nuclear capacity lifetime extensions• Wind generation assumed at 35% of installed capacity
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Europe
Reduced output and lower margins at Rugeley– FGD installation in 2008 – together with planned outage, Rugeley will be off for 4
months– insulated from higher coal costs due to forward contracting– higher CO2 costs in Phase II
Deeside - relatively light contracted position provides upside from improved market conditions
– recent (2008) contracting has locked in improved spreads– high coal price may result in switching from coal to gas
First Hydro– reduction in peak / off peak differential driven by higher overnight prices– continued strong performance from both ancillary and balancing mechanism
markets
% of anticipated output for the full year(2)Pre cost of CO2
(1)IPR forecast
(3)
UK commercial summary
Spread £/MWh
Load factor
Forward contracted
23
70%
60%
23
50%
n/a
Rugeley Deeside2007
27
55%
85%
34
65%
n/a
2008 20072008
(3)
Full Year(2) n/a
90%
95%
n/a
90%
n/a
Saltend20072008(1) (1) (1)
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Europe
830 MW CCGT, Portugal IPR and Endesa 50:50 partnership
– 25 year tolling contract with Endesa
£443m financing complete– IPR equity investment £34m
EPC contractor – Siemens Commissioning in 2011 Located adjacent to existing Tejo coal
plant– benefits from shared services
Excellent organic growth opportunity from:
– existing market presence– available site– access to finance
New plantNew plantExistingPlantExistingPlant
Elecgas, Portugal
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Significant scale in wind generation– 1,199 MW now operational worldwide
- 660 MW of operational wind capacity acquired in 2007 - 132 MW under construction brought online
– IPR now a leading global wind generator
Established market positions provide strong platform for growth
– improved access to developers and turbine manufacturers
Current focus– growth opportunities across
our core markets– balanced portfolio
approach
Strong growth in renewables
Europe
Canunda
Levanto DZ1
Maestrale Schkortleben
DZ11
1,199
407
Wind generationyear-on-year growth
2006
March 2008
1,200
Kardstadt 11
Horn
9006003000
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Strong operational performance with high plant availability Umm Al Nar all new capacity on line
– current total capacity 2,450 MW, 143 MIGD– decommissioning date for original capacity (795 MW)
extended to 2010
Ras Laffan B – 920 MW, 30 MIGD operational– 135 MW, 30 MIGD expected
in H1 2008
Hidd desalination extension – 12 MIGD operational
– 48 MIGD expected in H1 2008
Fujairah F2 2,000 MW, 130 MIGD
Middle East
Al Kamil
Umm Al Nar Tihama
Shuweihat Ras Laffan B
Hidd
7,300
5,540
2,817
Middle Eastyear-on-year gross capacity growth
2005
2006
2007
As at 31 December each year
Gross MW
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Middle East
Awarded Fujairah F2 greenfield IWPP - 2,000 MW and 130 MIGD water
– IPR 20%, Marubeni 20%, ADWEA 60%
Successful signing of EPC contract and project financing on attractive terms
– 20 year Power and Water Purchase Agreement (PWPA)
Close relationships with technology providers – Alstom and SIDEM
Full commercial operation expected by in 2010 Key project to help Abu Dhabi meet growing power demand
– forecast average demand growth 8.1% per annum– demand growth driven by over $170 billion* of major
residential, commercial and industrial projects over the next 6-8 years
* Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Company (ADWEC) estimate
Fujairah F2, UAE
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Australia
Forward market still good – recent rainfall resulted in some
reduction in 2008 forward prices - but low liquidity
– but key hydro reservoirs remain at low levels
Portfolio largely contracted for 2008 Australia ratified the Kyoto Protocol in
December 2007– emission trading scheme expected to
commence in 2010– design details expected by end of
2008
Hazelwood low emissions project– key government grant contracts
signed– turbine efficiency upgrade / coal
drying– pilot CO2 capture plant
Notes:• Planned capacity additions 1,153 MW by 2011/12• Inter-connector assumed at 85% of total capacity• Wind generation assumed at 10%
10
15
20
25
5
0
Victoria and South Australia Reserve Margin
07/08
Target Reserve Margin
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16
%
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Australia
(1)IPR forecast
% of anticipatedoutput for the full year
(2)
Achieved average price ($/MWh)
Victoria, Hazelwood 2007
3245
2008Full Year
(1)
Load factor
Forward contracted
95%
85%
95%
n/a
Hazelwood Loy Yang B2007
80%
80%
80%
n/a
2008 20072008Full Year
(2)
75%
95%
75%
n/a
Pelican Point20072008(1) (1) (1)
Commercial summary
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Asia
Strong growth in power demand– Pakistan > 10%– Indonesia 5%– Thailand 6%
Robust commercial and technical performance
Focus on high availability– bonus at Paiton - availability 93%
High load factors - record generation in Pakistan
– generation bonus at HUBCO - load factor 72%
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Asia
In-principle agreement to acquire additional 31% of Uch
– total IPR shareholding 71%– acquisition price £44m– 572 MW plant, PPA till 2023– strengthens long-term contracted
earnings and cash flow– strong positioning using
indigenous Pakistan gas Power demand growing strongly
in Pakistan– over 10% per annum– shortage of capacity
Pakistan economy growing at 7% per annum
Uch, Pakistan
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Delivering growth
Opportunity flow Significant opportunities in existing markets
– driven by demand growth and capacity retirements
– greenfield development and acquisitions New markets subject to detailed analysis
Rising EPC costs Industry wide development – not a competitive
disadvantage Good long-term relationships with key EPC suppliers Return levels maintained – evidenced by recent
projects Positive read across for IPR’s existing assets
Availability of finance Project finance available Continue to execute major projects on attractive terms
IPR well positioned
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Multiple growth opportunities
North America 650 MW Coleto Creek plant expansion New England peaking units for FCM bids Acquisition opportunities
– over 6,000 MW of existing capacity currently on the market
Europe 840 MW Eneco CCGT in Netherlands Acquisition opportunities 100 MW expansion at Opatovice, Czech Republic Renewables Opportunities in new markets
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Middle East Bids due in 2008
– 1,600 MW, 100 MIGD Shuweihat S2, UAE
– 400 MW, 15 MIGD Salalah, Oman– 1,200 MW, 50 MIGD Ad Dur 1,
Bahrain– 400 MW, Al Qatrana, Jordan– 1,000 MW 220 MIGD Raz az Zawr,
Saudi Arabia Strong medium and longer term
project pipeline
Australia 12,500 MW NSW privatisation 350 MW peaker, NSW Renewable opportunities
Asia 800 MW Paiton III, Indonesia 1,320 MW West Java,
Indonesia 450 MW KAPCO expansion,
Pakistan 225 MW HUBCO expansion,
Pakistan 400 MW Uch expansion,
Pakistan 100 MW Thailand Opportunities in new markets
Africa Up to 2,500 MW (Phase I)
Mmamabula, Botswana Opportunities in new markets
Multiple growth opportunities
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Summary
Good financial performance with strong free cash flow– performance in 2007 reflects portfolio strength
Expect 2008 to be a year of growth– reduced output at Rugeley and lower coal spreads– subdued summer spreads in the US
Continued access to finance and EPC contractors/turbines IPR well positioned to grow the portfolio
– multiple opportunities– greenfield development and acquisitions
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Appendix
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
Year ended 31 December
North AmericaEurope Middle EastAustralia AsiaRegional totalCorporate PFODisposals (see below) - Malakoff sale - Disposal to MitsuiNet finance expense(Loss)/profit before taxIncome tax credit/(expense)(Loss)/profit for the year
SpecificIAS 39 MTM
ExceptionalItems
(21)(135)
- (173)
(1)(330)
- (330)
- -
(16)(346)
96 (250)
- (56)
- - -
(56)-
(56)
115 174
- 233
63 296
(21)(191)
- (173)
(1)(386)
- (386)
115 174 (16)
(113)159 46
2006
10 110
- (50)
- 70 -
70
- -
(26)44
(10)34
- 55 - - -
55 -
55
- - -
55 (15)40
10 165
- (50)
- 125
- 125
- -
(26)99
(25)74
TotalSpecific
IAS 39 MTMExceptional
Items Total
Exceptional items and specific IAS 39 MTM
2007
£m £m £m £m £m £m
Preliminary Results March 2008 International Power
North America
Europe
Middle East
Australia
Asia
Regional total
Corporate costs
Profit from operations
12
159
14
26
29
240
(12)
228
2007 2006
Q1
4
158
5
33
28
228
(11)
217
Profit from operations
62
109
17
20
22
230
(12)
218
2007 2006
Q3
50
66
13
36
19
184
(12)
172
30
109
15
20
26
200
(12)
188
2007 2006
Q2
24
84
19
31
28
186
(11)
175
32
197
22
16
19
286
(16)
270
2007 2006
Q4
23
142
15
24
16
220
(11)
209
Quarterly breakdown
Geographic analysis
£m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m