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1. Change in Selected Ultimates from prior Sept 30th is calculated as the change in the accident year selected nominal loss ratio against the accident year earned premium as at the current valuation date. Change in Selected Ultimates from Prior Quarter End is the change in selected ultimate nominal losses. Some variations due to changes in earned premium may be expected

2. Change in Selected Ultimates as % of Beginning Unpaid is calculated as the Change in Selected Ultimates from Prior valuation date (for September 30th valuations for the last accident year, this change is estimated as 75% of the full year change in selected ultimates) over the selected nominal Unpaid at the prior valuation date

Facility Association Prior Accident Year Change in Estimated Ultimate Incurred AmountsRSP ‐ OntarioAmounts in $000s

Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11 Sep‐12 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Dec‐13 Mar‐14 Jun‐14 Sep‐14 Dec‐14AY2005 & Prior 7,769 9,892 (13,074) (327) (5,598) 5,664 (3,066) (863) (132) (1,948) (573) ‐

AY2006 6,719 3,114 1,311 4,917 (6,392) 3,933 (983) (746) (31) 150 (368)

AY2007 (181) 905 (1,991) 1,267 (6,695) 724 543 (217) (709) 30 1,296

AY2008 21,234 3,646 8,579 (9,437) ‐ (2,359) (2,524) (123) 1,504 (1,093)

AY2009 42,130 17,928 (12,325) 8,292 5,602 366 (687) 3,979 1,852

AY2010 1,137 (25,024) 15,925 (7,678) 1,999 (3,230) (2,157) (4,235)

AY2011 (24,649) (46,496) (37,253) (9,334) (8,301) (16,340) (3,320)

AY2012 (73,982) (19,024) (5,457) (1,012) (8,691) (3,957)

AY2013 (24,839) 251 (10,127) (5,119)

Total 14,307 35,145 32,023 33,500 (90,120) (85,940) (89,057) (16,777) (13,975) (33,600) (15,517) ‐

Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11 Sep‐12 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Dec‐13 Mar‐14 Jun‐14 Sep‐14 Dec‐14AY2005 & Prior 3.4% 5.2% (8.6%) (0.3%) (8.3%) 12.1% (6.8%) (1.9%) (0.3%) (5.1%) (1.6%) ‐

AY2006 7.6% 3.9% 1.9% 9.2% (15.5%) 15.9% (4.2%) (3.2%) (0.2%) 0.8% (2.1%)

AY2007 (0.1%) 0.8% (2.4%) 1.9% (13.0%) 2.6% 2.7% (1.1%) (4.3%) 0.2% 10.8%

AY2008 11.5% 2.6% 7.4% (9.5%) ‐ (5.7%) (6.1%) (0.3%) 4.5% (3.3%)

AY2009 18.6% 9.7% (8.2%) 8.1% 7.6% 0.5% (1.0%) 6.5% 3.2%

AY2010 0.3% (9.4%) 8.4% (4.9%) 1.3% (2.2%) (1.6%) (3.5%)

AY2011 (7.9%) (18.1%) (19.9%) (5.0%) (4.9%) (10.6%) (2.5%)

AY2012 (21.2%) (8.0%) (2.3%) (0.5%) (4.0%) (2.0%)

AY2013 (8.1%) 0.1% (3.8%) (2.1%)

Total 3.4% 5.8% 3.5% 4.2% (9.2%) (6.9%) (8.2%) (1.7%) (1.4%) (3.6%) (1.8%) ‐

as at September 30, 2014

Change in Selected Ultimates from prior Sept 30th against current Earned Premium Change in Selected Ultimates from Prior Quarter End

Change in Selected Ultimates as % Beginning Unpaid Change from Prior Quarter End

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Exhibit B.1.1

Summary of Nominal Results

page 1 of 1Facility Association Valuation Results

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: Total

RSP: Ontario

Life to Date

Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Indemnity & Allowed Claims

ExpenseCase Reserves

Recorded Indemnity & Allowed

Claims ExpenseSelected IBNR

Ultimate Indemnity & Allowed

Claims Expense

Unpaid Indemnity & Allowed

Claims Expense

$000s $000s % EP $000s % EP $000s % EP $000s % EP $000s % EP $000s % EP

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14]

database database = [3]/[2] = [7]-[3] = [5]/[2] database = [7]/[2] database = [9]/[2] = [7]+[9] = [11]/[2] = [5]+[9] = [13]/[2]

2009 & prior 2,565,894 2,503,377 97.6% 106,640 4.2% 2,610,017 101.7% 40,860 1.6% 2,650,877 103.3% 147,500 5.7%

2010 284,366 348,655 122.6% 84,814 29.8% 433,469 152.4% 24,137 8.5% 457,606 160.9% 108,951 38.3%

2011 280,097 155,524 55.5% 80,681 28.8% 236,205 84.3% 40,001 14.3% 276,206 98.6% 120,682 43.1%

2012 301,966 127,096 42.1% 111,952 37.1% 239,048 79.2% 79,294 26.3% 318,342 105.4% 191,246 63.3%

2013 299,263 116,305 38.9% 99,758 33.3% 216,063 72.2% 131,526 43.9% 347,589 116.1% 231,284 77.3%

2014 202,748 56,114 27.7% 56,596 27.9% 112,710 55.6% 131,900 65.1% 244,610 120.6% 188,496 93.0%

TOTAL 3,934,334 3,307,071 84.1% 540,441 13.7% 3,847,512 97.8% 447,718 11.4% 4,295,230 109.2% 988,159 25.1%

2013 & prior 3,731,586 3,250,957 87.1% 483,845 13.0% 3,734,802 100.1% 315,818 8.5% 4,050,620 108.5% 799,663 21.4%

Activity During Quarter vs EP

Accident YearEarned

Premium (LTD)

Change in Paid Indemnity &

Allowed Claims ExpenseChange in Case Reserves

Change in Recorded Indemnity &

Allowed Claims ExpenseChange in Selected IBNR

Change in Ultimate Indemnity &

Allowed Claims Expense

Change in Unpaid Indemnity &



[15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28]

database database =[17]/[16] database =[19]/[16] database =[21]/[16] database =[23]/[16] database =[25]/[16] database =[27]/[16]

2009 & prior 2,565,894 10,187 0.4% (7,513) (0.3%) 2,674 0.1% (1,563) (0.1%) 1,111 - (9,076) (0.4%)

2010 284,366 7,627 2.7% (8,208) (2.9%) (581) (0.2%) (3,655) (1.3%) (4,236) (1.5%) (11,863) (4.2%)

2011 280,097 7,333 2.6% (5,045) (1.8%) 2,288 0.8% (5,608) (2.0%) (3,320) (1.2%) (10,653) (3.8%)

2012 301,966 6,110 2.0% 3,176 1.1% 9,286 3.1% (13,243) (4.4%) (3,957) (1.3%) (10,067) (3.3%)

2013 299,263 9,231 3.1% (2,229) (0.7%) 7,002 2.3% (12,122) (4.1%) (5,120) (1.7%) (14,351) (4.8%)

TOTAL 3,731,586 40,488 1.1% (19,819) (0.5%) 20,669 0.6% (36,191) (1.0%) (15,522) (0.4%) (56,010) (1.5%)

Emergence During Quarter

Accident Year Beginning IBNRBeginning

Unpaid







$000s $000s $000s % Beg Unpaid $000s % Beg IBNR $000s % Beg Unpaid

[29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37]

database database [17] =[32]/[31] [21] =[34]/[30] [25] =[36]/[31]

2009 & prior 42,423 156,576 10,187 6.5% 2,674 6.3% 1,111 0.7%

2010 27,792 120,814 7,627 6.3% (581) (2.1%) (4,236) (3.5%)

2011 45,609 131,335 7,333 5.6% 2,288 5.0% (3,320) (2.5%)

2012 92,537 201,313 6,110 3.0% 9,286 10.0% (3,957) (2.0%)

2013 143,648 245,635 9,231 3.8% 7,002 4.9% (5,120) (2.1%)

TOTAL 352,009 855,673 40,488 4.7% 20,669 5.9% (15,522) (1.8%)


File: 01a Summary RSP-ON 2014-Q3 v05b.xlsx FA Actuarial Printed: 10/28/2014, 3:11 PM

Exhibit B.1.2

Loss Ratios over Time

page 1 of 1Facility Association Loss Ratios Over Time

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: Total

RSP: Ontario

Sel Ult LR @ Sep 2014 Sel Ult LR @ Sep 2014

compared with prior compared with prior

Earned Paid Case Recorded Selected Ultimate Selected Selected Selected Selected Selected Sel Ult LR @ Jun 2014 Sel Ult LR @ Sep 2013

Accident Premium Claims Amt* Reserve Claims Amt* IBNR Claims Amt* Ultimate LR Ultimate LR Ultimate LR Ultimate LR Ultimate LR Claims Amt*

Year @ Sep 2014 @ Sep 2014 @ Sep 2014 @ Sep 2014 @ Sep 2014 @ Sep 2014 @ Sep 2014 @ Jun 2014 @ Mar 2014 @ Dec 2013 @ Sep 2013 Ultimate LR Claims Amt* Ultimate LR @ curr EP

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16]

database database = [5]-[3] database database = [5]+[6] = [7]/[2] database database database database = [8]-[9] = [8]-[12] = [2]*[15]

1993 92,972 104,927 85 105,012 - 105,012 113.0% 113.0% 113.0% 113.0% 113.0% - - - -

1994 200,791 201,086 5,339 206,425 - 206,425 102.8% 102.6% 102.5% 102.4% 101.9% 0.2% 464 0.9% 1,807

1995 235,451 205,928 3,171 209,099 - 209,099 88.8% 88.8% 89.3% 89.3% 89.3% - (29) (0.5%) (1,177)

1996 197,412 158,146 3,254 161,400 - 161,400 81.8% 82.1% 82.1% 81.8% 81.8% (0.3%) (598) - -

1997 152,922 111,053 3 111,056 149 111,205 72.7% 72.7% 72.8% 72.8% 72.9% - (22) (0.2%) (306)

1998 103,106 83,578 1,030 84,608 244 84,852 82.3% 82.3% 82.4% 82.4% 82.5% - (28) (0.2%) (206)

1999 68,831 79,080 1,041 80,121 391 80,512 117.0% 116.8% 116.9% 117.0% 117.3% 0.2% 101 (0.3%) (206)

2000 69,659 84,929 84 85,013 507 85,520 122.8% 122.8% 122.9% 123.0% 123.4% - (38) (0.6%) (418)

2001 80,047 99,693 871 100,564 909 101,473 126.8% 126.8% 126.9% 127.0% 127.5% - 8 (0.7%) (560)

2002 113,770 132,816 1,319 134,135 1,428 135,563 119.2% 119.2% 119.3% 119.3% 119.2% - (98) - -

2003 142,680 126,840 2,880 129,720 1,669 131,389 92.1% 92.1% 92.1% 92.2% 92.6% - (55) (0.5%) (713)

2004 165,860 126,707 2,036 128,743 2,107 130,850 78.9% 79.0% 79.1% 79.4% 79.1% (0.1%) (166) (0.2%) (332)

2005 158,965 114,368 1,922 116,290 2,143 118,433 74.5% 74.6% 74.9% 74.9% 75.1% (0.1%) (114) (0.6%) (954)

2006 163,889 151,069 12,870 163,939 3,746 167,685 102.3% 102.5% 102.4% 102.5% 102.9% (0.2%) (368) (0.6%) (983)

2007 180,957 171,956 8,464 180,420 4,427 184,847 102.1% 101.4% 101.4% 101.8% 101.9% 0.7% 1,296 0.2% 362

2008 214,485 240,554 21,110 261,664 8,834 270,498 126.1% 126.6% 125.9% 126.0% 127.2% (0.5%) (1,093) (1.1%) (2,359)

2009 224,097 310,647 41,161 351,808 14,306 366,114 163.4% 162.5% 160.8% 161.1% 160.9% 0.9% 1,851 2.5% 5,602

2010 284,366 348,655 84,814 433,469 24,137 457,606 160.9% 162.4% 163.2% 164.3% 163.6% (1.5%) (4,236) (2.7%) (7,678)

2011 280,097 155,524 80,681 236,205 40,001 276,206 98.6% 99.8% 105.6% 108.6% 111.9% (1.2%) (3,320) (13.3%) (37,253)

2012 301,966 127,096 111,952 239,048 79,294 318,342 105.4% 106.7% 109.6% 109.9% 111.7% (1.3%) (3,957) (6.3%) (19,024)

2013 299,263 116,305 99,758 216,063 131,526 347,589 116.1% 117.8% 121.1% 120.6% 124.4% (1.7%) (5,120) (8.3%) (24,839)

2014 202,748 56,114 56,596 112,710 131,900 244,610 120.6% 117.7% 130.0% - - - - **

TOTAL 3,934,334 3,307,071 540,441 3,847,512 447,718 4,295,230 109.2% 109.3% 110.2% 110.2% 110.7% (15,522) (89,237)

2013 & prior 3,731,586 3,250,957 483,845 3,734,802 315,818 4,050,620 108.5% 109.0% 109.9% 110.2% 110.7% (15,522) (89,237)

* Claims Amt = indemnity & allowed claims expense (where latter is allowed expense over and above the claims expense included in the expense allowance for member companies)

** For the current accident year (AY2014), the Selected Ultimate LR @ Mar 2014 [10] was presented as a full year loss ratio. Selected Ultimate LR @ Sep 2014 ([8]) is a partial year loss ratio



Exhibit B.1.3-1

Comparison of Government Line Ultimates

page 1 of 1Facility Association

Comparison of Selected Ultimate Incurred Claims Amounts by Coverage


Amounts in: $1,000s

RSP: Ontario

Prior Analysis (Jun 2014) Current Analysis (Sep 2014) Change from Prior Analysis

Accident YearThird Party

Liability

Accident

BenefitsOther Coverages Total

Third Party

Liability

Accident


Third Party

Liability

Accident


Prior to 1994 34,272 39,071 31,668 105,012 34,272 39,071 31,668 105,012 - - - -

1995 46,582 107,194 55,352 209,128 46,582 107,166 55,351 209,099 - (28) (1) (29)

1996 43,260 74,608 44,131 161,998 42,643 74,626 44,131 161,400 (617) 18 - (598)

1997 39,483 38,667 33,077 111,227 39,483 38,645 33,077 111,205 - (22) - (22)

1998 32,297 29,183 23,400 84,880 32,297 29,155 23,400 84,852 - (28) - (28)

1999 31,302 31,008 18,101 80,411 31,302 31,110 18,101 80,512 - 102 - 101

2000 31,586 32,474 21,498 85,558 31,586 32,436 21,498 85,520 - (38) - (38)

2001 36,269 42,891 22,306 101,465 36,269 42,899 22,306 101,473 - 8 - 8

2002 50,417 55,069 30,176 135,661 50,409 54,979 30,176 135,563 (8) (90) - (98)

2003 47,604 53,115 30,724 131,444 47,617 53,047 30,725 131,389 13 (68) 1 (55)

2004 51,569 53,702 25,745 131,016 51,566 53,542 25,742 130,850 (3) (160) (3) (166)

2005 44,206 48,064 26,278 118,547 44,124 48,034 26,276 118,433 (82) (30) (2) (114)

2006 63,626 76,280 28,147 168,053 63,286 76,250 28,149 167,685 (340) (30) 2 (368)

2007 69,071 78,811 35,669 183,551 69,343 79,863 35,642 184,847 272 1,052 (27) 1,296

2008 82,714 146,295 42,582 271,591 82,142 145,798 42,557 270,498 (572) (497) (25) (1,093)

2009 101,845 221,683 40,735 364,263 101,796 223,555 40,764 366,114 (49) 1,872 29 1,851

2010 144,966 270,627 46,248 461,842 142,376 269,114 46,116 457,606 (2,590) (1,513) (132) (4,236)

2011 113,085 123,356 43,084 279,526 108,438 124,759 43,008 276,206 (4,647) 1,403 (76) (3,320)

2012 140,327 139,015 42,958 322,299 135,953 139,510 42,879 318,342 (4,374) 495 (79) (3,957)

2013 158,432 146,505 47,771 352,709 153,137 146,490 47,963 347,589 (5,295) (15) 192 (5,120)

2014 72,667 64,355 23,993 161,014 110,454 98,441 35,715 244,610 37,787 34,086 11,722 83,596

Total 1,484,591 1,972,013 770,552 4,227,156 1,504,086 2,008,994 782,153 4,295,230 19,495 36,981 11,601 68,074

2013 & Prior 1,411,924 1,907,658 746,559 4,066,142 1,393,632 1,910,553 746,438 4,050,620 (18,292) 2,895 (121) (15,522)

File: 01 Ultimate Selections RSP-ON 2014 Q3 - v06b.xlsm FA Actuarial Printed: 10/28/2014, 1:41 PM

Exhibit B.1.3-2

Selected Weights by Method


Estimated and Selected Ultimate Losses by Method


Coverage: Total

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Actual Experience Ultimate Loss Estimates

Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 92,972 104,927 85 105,012 105,012 105,012 105,012 105,012

1994 200,791 201,086 5,338 206,425 206,425 206,425 206,425 102.8% 102.8% 102.8% 206,425 102.8%

1995 235,451 205,928 3,172 209,099 209,099 209,099 209,099 88.8% 88.8% 88.8% 209,099 88.8%

1996 197,412 158,146 3,253 161,400 161,400 161,400 161,400 81.8% 81.8% 81.8% 161,400 81.8%

1997 152,922 111,053 3 111,056 111,205 111,205 111,056 72.7% 72.7% 72.6% 111,205 72.7%

1998 103,106 83,578 1,030 84,608 84,852 84,852 84,608 82.3% 82.3% 82.1% 84,852 82.3%

1999 68,831 79,080 1,041 80,121 80,513 80,513 80,121 117.0% 117.0% 116.4% 80,512 117.0%

2000 69,659 84,929 84 85,013 85,521 85,521 85,013 122.8% 122.8% 122.0% 85,520 122.8%

2001 80,047 99,693 871 100,564 101,474 101,474 100,564 126.8% 126.8% 125.6% 101,473 126.8%

2002 113,770 132,816 1,319 134,135 135,563 135,563 134,135 119.2% 119.2% 117.9% 135,563 119.2%

2003 142,680 126,840 2,880 129,720 131,390 131,390 129,720 92.1% 92.1% 90.9% 131,389 92.1%

2004 165,860 126,707 2,036 128,743 130,850 130,850 128,743 78.9% 78.9% 77.6% 130,850 78.9%

2005 158,965 114,368 1,922 116,290 118,434 118,434 116,290 74.5% 74.5% 73.2% 118,433 74.5%

2006 163,889 151,069 12,870 163,939 167,685 167,685 163,939 102.3% 102.3% 100.0% 167,685 102.3%

2007 180,957 171,956 8,465 180,420 184,848 184,848 180,420 102.2% 102.2% 99.7% 184,847 102.2%

2008 214,485 240,554 21,110 261,664 270,498 270,498 261,664 126.1% 126.1% 122.0% 270,498 126.1%

2009 224,097 310,647 41,162 351,808 365,976 365,976 351,808 163.3% 163.3% 157.0% 366,114 163.4%

2010 284,366 348,655 84,814 433,469 374,186 459,152 6.7% 93.3% 453,480 454,963 433,469 131.6% 161.5% 159.5% 160.0% 152.4% 457,606 160.9%

2011 280,097 155,524 80,680 236,205 304,281 261,364 11.8% 88.2% 266,449 275,896 236,205 108.6% 93.3% 95.1% 98.5% 84.3% 276,206 98.6%

2012 301,966 127,096 111,952 239,048 335,729 301,715 15.3% 84.7% 306,935 320,697 239,048 111.2% 99.9% 101.6% 106.2% 79.2% 318,342 105.4%

2013 299,263 116,305 99,759 216,063 348,501 321,729 37.4% 62.6% 331,743 342,673 216,063 116.5% 107.5% 110.9% 114.5% 72.2% 347,589 116.1%

2014 202,748 56,114 56,596 112,710 327,538 255,006 85.5% 14.5% 317,051 151,272 112,710 244,610 120.6%

Total 3,934,332 3,307,072 540,443 3,847,515 1,690,234 4,249,709 1,675,658 4,196,245 3,847,515 4,295,233

*Earned Premium prior to data modernization (2009 / 2) was not allocated on a coverage level

**For 'off-half' valuation quarters (Mar and Sep), the current accident year (CAY) by method Ultimate Loss estimates ([5] to [22]) are aggregated from a coverage level


Exhibit B.1.3-3

Comparison of IBNR by Methods


Comparison of Estimated Ultimate Losses by Method


Coverage: Total

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Current Valuation Results (as at Sep 2014) Prior Valuation Results (as at Jun 2014) Change from Prior Valuation

Accident Year ELR Method*Link Ratio

MethodBF Method*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2Selected IBNR Method**

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

ELR Method*LR Ratio

MethodBF Method* Selected IBNR Method**

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 105,012 105,012 105,012 - 105,012 105,012 - 105,012 - - -

1994 206,425 206,425 206,425 N/A - 206,425 102.8% 205,961 N/A - 205,961 102.6% 464 - 464 0.2%

1995 209,099 209,099 209,099 N/A - 209,099 88.8% 209,128 N/A - 209,128 88.8% (29) - (29) -

1996 161,400 161,400 161,400 N/A - 161,400 81.8% 161,998 N/A - 161,998 82.1% (599) - (599) (0.3%)

1997 111,205 111,205 111,056 N/A 149 111,205 72.7% 111,226 N/A 168 111,227 72.7% (3) (19) (22) -

1998 84,852 84,852 84,608 N/A 244 84,852 82.3% 84,880 N/A 272 84,880 82.3% - (28) (28) -

1999 80,513 80,513 80,121 N/A 391 80,512 117.0% 80,411 N/A 415 80,411 116.8% 126 (24) 102 0.2%

2000 85,521 85,521 85,013 N/A 507 85,520 122.8% 85,559 N/A 545 85,558 122.8% - (38) (38) -

2001 101,474 101,474 100,564 N/A 909 101,473 126.8% 101,465 N/A 925 101,465 126.8% 24 (16) 8 -

2002 135,563 135,563 134,135 N/A 1,428 135,563 119.2% 135,660 N/A 1,540 135,661 119.2% 14 (112) (98) -

2003 131,390 131,390 129,720 N/A 1,669 131,389 92.1% 131,445 N/A 1,743 131,444 92.1% 20 (74) (54) -

2004 130,850 130,850 128,743 N/A 2,107 130,850 78.9% 131,014 N/A 2,252 131,016 79.0% (20) (145) (165) (0.1%)

2005 118,434 118,434 116,290 N/A 2,143 118,433 74.5% 118,547 N/A 2,194 118,547 74.6% (63) (51) (114) (0.1%)

2006 167,685 167,685 163,939 N/A 3,746 167,685 102.3% 168,053 N/A 3,914 168,053 102.5% (200) (168) (368) (0.2%)

2007 184,848 184,848 180,420 N/A 4,427 184,847 102.2% 183,552 N/A 4,572 183,551 101.4% 1,441 (145) 1,296 0.8%

2008 270,498 270,498 261,664 N/A 8,834 270,498 126.1% 271,591 N/A 9,255 271,591 126.6% (672) (421) (1,093) (0.5%)

2009 365,976 365,976 351,808 N/A 14,306 366,114 163.4% 364,008 N/A 14,628 364,263 162.5% 2,174 (322) 1,852 0.9%

2010 374,186 459,152 453,480 454,963 433,469 N/A 24,137 457,606 160.9% 376,781 463,582 457,323 N/A 27,792 461,842 162.4% (580) (3,655) (4,235) (1.5%)

2011 304,281 261,364 266,449 275,896 236,205 N/A 40,001 276,206 98.6% 307,126 263,628 269,782 N/A 45,609 279,526 99.8% 2,288 (5,608) (3,320) (1.2%)

2012 335,729 301,715 306,935 320,697 239,048 N/A 79,294 318,342 105.4% 340,339 304,033 311,683 N/A 92,537 322,299 106.7% 9,286 (13,243) (3,957) (1.3%)

2013 348,501 321,729 331,743 342,673 216,063 N/A 131,526 347,589 116.1% 353,873 323,597 336,856 N/A 143,648 352,709 117.8% 7,003 (12,122) (5,119) (1.7%)

2014 327,538 255,006 317,051 151,272 112,710 N/A 131,900 244,610 120.6% 155,401 142,179 154,501 N/A 89,134 161,014 117.7% 40,830 42,766 83,596 2.9%

Total 1,690,234 4,249,709 1,675,658 4,196,245 3,847,515 447,718 4,295,233 1,533,520 4,146,531 1,530,145 441,143 4,227,154 61,504 6,575 68,079

2013 & Prior 1,362,696 3,994,703 1,358,607 4,044,973 3,734,805 315,818 4,050,623 1,378,119 4,004,352 1,375,644 352,009 4,066,140 20,674 (36,191) (15,517)


**IBNR selected on a coverage level and aggregated to a Government Line (or Total) level


Exhibit B.1.3-4

IBNR Basis of Selection

page 1 of 2RSP Valuationas at Sep 30, 2014

RSP-ONIndemnity and Allowed Claims ExpensesSummary of Selection Basis for IBNR Amounts

Accident Third Party Liability Third Party Liability Third Party Liability Accident Benefits Accident BenefitsHalf Year Bodily Injury Property Damage Direct Comp Property Damage AccBen (indivis) Uninsured Automobile

2014-Q3 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q2

2014 / 2 - - - - - - - - - - 2014 / 1 ELR Method ELR Method ELR Method ELR Method BF Method BF Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method2013 / 2 ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method2013 / 1 ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method2012 / 2 ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method2012 / 1 ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method2011 / 2 BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method User Defined 2 User Defined 2 ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method2011 / 1 BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method2010 / 2 BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2010 / 1 BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2009 / 2 BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2009 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2008 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2008 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2007 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2007 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2006 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2006 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2005 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2005 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2004 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2004 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2003 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2003 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2002 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2002 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2001 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2001 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2000 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2000 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1999 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1999 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1998 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1998 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1997 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1997 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1996 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1996 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1995 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1995 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1994 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method

*For 'off-half' quarterly valuations (Mar and Sep), current accident half-year IBNR derived from the CAHY Selections exhibit


Exhibit B.1.3-4

IBNR Basis of Selection

page 2 of 2RSP Valuationas at Sep 30, 2014

RSP-ONIndemnity and Allowed Claims ExpensesSummary of Selection Basis for IBNR Amounts

Accident Other Coverages Other Coverages Other CoveragesHalf Year Underinsured Motorist Collision (w All Perils) Comprehensive (w Spec Perils)

2014-Q3 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q2

2014 / 2 - - - - - - 2014 / 1 ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF Method BF Method BF Method2013 / 2 ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2013 / 1 ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2012 / 2 BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2012 / 1 BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2011 / 2 BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2011 / 1 BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2010 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2010 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2009 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2009 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2008 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2008 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2007 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2007 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2006 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2006 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2005 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2005 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2004 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2004 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2003 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2003 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2002 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2002 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2001 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2001 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2000 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2000 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1999 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1999 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1998 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1998 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1997 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1997 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1996 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1996 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1995 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1995 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1994 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method

*For 'off-half' quarterly valuations (Mar and Sep), current accident half-year IBNR derived from the CAHY Selections exhibit


Exhibit B.1.4.1

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1

Facility Association

a priori LR model

for valuation: Sep 30, 2014

RSP Ontario

CURRENT PRIOR CHANGE

Accident

Period

Third Party

Liability

Accident

Benefits

Other

CoveragesTotal

Third Party

Liability

Accident

Benefits

Other

CoveragesTotal

Third Party

Liability

Accident

Benefits

Other

CoveragesTotal

2009 / 1 102.0% 242.0% 85.0% 147.0% 106.0% 241.0% 86.0% 149.0% (4.0%) 1.0% (1.0%) (2.0%)

2009 / 2 116.0% 271.0% 89.0% 168.0% 120.0% 269.0% 88.0% 169.0% (4.0%) 2.0% 1.0% (1.0%)

2010 / 1 102.0% 235.0% 86.0% 151.0% 106.0% 234.0% 85.0% 152.0% (4.0%) 1.0% 1.0% (1.0%)

2010 / 2 109.0% 129.0% 94.0% 115.0% 113.0% 128.0% 92.0% 115.0% (4.0%) 1.0% 2.0% -

2011 / 1 96.0% 114.0% 90.0% 102.0% 99.0% 113.0% 88.0% 103.0% (3.0%) 1.0% 2.0% (1.0%)

2011 / 2 109.0% 127.0% 98.0% 115.0% 113.0% 127.0% 96.0% 116.0% (4.0%) - 2.0% (1.0%)

2012 / 1 99.0% 113.0% 94.0% 104.0% 104.0% 111.0% 93.0% 105.0% (5.0%) 2.0% 1.0% (1.0%)

2012 / 2 117.0% 125.0% 101.0% 118.0% 122.0% 125.0% 101.0% 120.0% (5.0%) - - (2.0%)

2013 / 1 107.0% 114.0% 96.0% 108.0% 111.0% 113.0% 94.0% 109.0% (4.0%) 1.0% 2.0% (1.0%)

2013 / 2 125.0% 133.0% 101.0% 125.0% 130.0% 133.0% 101.0% 127.0% (5.0%) - - (2.0%)

2014 / 1 109.0% 122.0% 95.0% 112.0% 113.0% 121.0% 95.0% 113.0% (4.0%) 1.0% - (1.0%)

2014 / 2 129.0% 137.0% 101.0% 128.0% 135.0% 137.0% 101.0% 131.0% (6.0%) - - (3.0%)

2015 / 1 113.0% 124.0% 96.0% 115.0% 118.0% 124.0% 96.0% 117.0% (5.0%) - - (2.0%)

2015 / 2 135.0% 139.0% 102.0% 132.0% 141.0% 138.0% 102.0% 134.0% (6.0%) 1.0% - (2.0%)

2016 / 1 118.0% 126.0% 96.0% 118.0% 123.0% 125.0% 97.0% 120.0% (5.0%) 1.0% (1.0%) (2.0%)

2016 / 2 141.0% 141.0% 103.0% 135.0% 147.0% 140.0% 103.0% 138.0% (6.0%) 1.0% - (3.0%)

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

160.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1

RSP: Ontario - Third Party Liability

Paid as % EP Case as % EP IBNR as % EPFavourable Unpaid as % EP Unfavourable Unpaid as % EP Prior Selected a priori LRsCurrent Selected a priori LRs

-

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

300.0%

350.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1

RSP: Ontario - Accident Benefits


(20.0%)

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1

RSP: Ontario - Other Coverages


-

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1

RSP: Ontario - Total


File: 01 RSP ON a priori LRs 2014 Q3 v03c.xlsx FA Actuarial Printed: 10/28/2014, 11:30 AM

Exhibit B.1.4.2

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: Total

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 1 143.0% 143.0% -

2003 / 2 102.0% 103.0% (1.0%)

2004 / 1 92.0% 93.0% (1.0%)

2004 / 2 106.0% 107.0% (1.0%)

2005 / 1 101.0% 102.0% (1.0%)

2005 / 2 120.0% 122.0% (2.0%)

2006 / 1 114.0% 116.0% (2.0%)

2006 / 2 133.0% 135.0% (2.0%)

2007 / 1 124.0% 126.0% (2.0%)

2007 / 2 146.0% 147.0% (1.0%)

2008 / 1 139.0% 140.0% (1.0%)

2008 / 2 160.0% 161.0% (1.0%)

2009 / 1 147.0% 149.0% (2.0%)

2009 / 2 168.0% 169.0% (1.0%)

2010 / 1 151.0% 152.0% (1.0%)

2010 / 2 115.0% 115.0% -

2011 / 1 102.0% 103.0% (1.0%) Selected Model Loss Ratio Residuals Plot2011 / 2 115.0% 116.0% (1.0%)

2012 / 1 104.0% 105.0% (1.0%)

2012 / 2 118.0% 120.0% (2.0%)

2013 / 1 108.0% 109.0% (1.0%)

2013 / 2 125.0% 127.0% (2.0%)

2014 / 1 112.0% 113.0% (1.0%)

2014 / 2 128.0% 131.0% (3.0%)

2015 / 1 115.0% 117.0% (2.0%)

2015 / 2 132.0% 134.0% (2.0%)

2016 / 1 118.0% 120.0% (2.0%)

2016 / 2 135.0% 138.0% (3.0%)

Current AHY: 2014 / 2

Jun 30, 2014 valuation result Adjust EP to 2014 / 2 rate level Adjust Ultimate Claims Amount to 2014 / 2 clms level

Accident

Period

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio

Rate ChangeDrift (RG,

class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]

val data val data val data val data =[4]/[1]industry avg

EP relativityassumption assumption

=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend

analysisassumption assumption

=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 1 66,934 65,903 1,844 68,827 102.8% 1.3170 1.0000 1.0000 88,149 1.1324 1.0000 1.0000 77,509 87.9% -

2003 / 2 75,745 60,937 1,016 62,617 82.7% 1.1892 1.0000 1.0000 90,073 1.5380 1.0000 1.0000 95,778 106.3% -

2004 / 1 81,832 55,664 1,644 58,246 71.2% 1.1168 1.0000 1.0000 91,389 1.5358 1.0000 1.0000 89,010 97.4% -

2004 / 2 84,027 70,686 769 72,769 86.6% 1.1085 1.0000 1.0000 93,144 1.3446 1.0000 1.0000 97,438 104.6% -

2005 / 1 81,302 51,532 1,375 53,800 66.2% 1.1359 1.0000 1.0000 92,352 1.4276 1.0000 1.0000 76,351 82.7% -

2005 / 2 77,661 61,878 1,568 64,747 83.4% 1.1674 1.0000 1.0000 90,665 1.2155 1.0000 1.0000 78,083 86.1% -

2006 / 1 77,001 59,214 2,514 62,972 81.8% 1.1857 1.0000 1.0000 91,296 1.3537 1.0000 1.0000 84,784 92.9% -

2006 / 2 86,888 91,332 11,078 105,081 120.9% 1.1949 1.0000 1.0000 103,822 1.1605 1.0000 1.0000 121,131 116.7% -

2007 / 1 89,401 80,451 2,479 84,821 94.9% 1.2017 1.0000 1.0000 107,435 1.2531 1.0000 1.0000 105,512 98.2% -

2007 / 2 91,559 91,145 4,904 98,730 107.8% 1.2092 1.0000 1.0000 110,715 1.0972 1.0000 1.0000 107,457 97.1% -

2008 / 1 106,182 113,777 10,011 127,919 120.5% 1.2129 1.0000 1.0000 128,785 1.1201 1.0000 1.0000 142,565 110.7% 8.3%

2008 / 2 108,301 124,535 14,013 143,671 132.7% 1.1990 1.0000 1.0000 129,857 0.9538 1.0000 1.0000 136,136 104.8% 8.3%

2009 / 1 108,298 137,557 16,863 160,162 147.9% 1.1765 1.0000 1.0000 127,415 1.0130 1.0000 1.0000 161,486 126.7% 8.3%

2009 / 2 115,797 168,483 26,732 204,101 176.3% 1.1457 1.0000 1.0000 132,666 0.8703 1.0000 1.0000 176,758 133.2% 8.3%

2010 / 1 133,264 200,533 40,620 254,129 190.7% 1.1003 1.0000 1.0000 146,627 0.9333 1.0000 1.0000 236,061 161.0% 8.3%

2010 / 2 151,103 140,495 52,402 207,712 137.5% 1.0534 1.0000 1.0000 159,170 1.1737 1.0000 1.0000 242,716 152.5% 8.3%

2011 / 1 139,285 76,783 42,468 133,297 95.7% 1.0285 1.0000 1.0000 143,253 1.2823 1.0000 1.0000 170,102 118.7% 8.3%

2011 / 2 140,814 71,409 43,257 146,228 103.8% 1.0122 1.0000 1.0000 142,536 1.1379 1.0000 1.0000 165,555 116.1% 8.3%

2012 / 1 149,819 59,535 51,269 147,023 98.1% 0.9973 1.0000 1.0000 149,409 1.2475 1.0000 1.0000 182,469 122.1% 8.3%

2012 / 2 152,141 61,451 57,507 175,276 115.2% 0.9934 1.0000 1.0000 151,142 1.0845 1.0000 1.0000 189,148 125.1% 8.3%

2013 / 1 150,929 53,329 45,665 160,886 106.6% 0.9934 1.0000 1.0000 149,930 1.1824 1.0000 1.0000 189,239 126.2% 8.3%

2013 / 2 148,389 53,745 56,322 191,823 129.3% 0.9998 1.0000 1.0000 148,366 1.0327 1.0000 1.0000 196,984 132.8% 8.3%

Total 2,416,672 1,950,374 486,321 2,784,839 115.2% 1.1041 1.0000 1.0000 2,668,196 1.1272 1.0000 1.0000 3,122,272 117.0% 100.0%

*indemnity & allowed claims expense 2013-2 AIX on industry 2013-2 AIX data weighted average: 127.4%

from FA Valuation Summary derived from 2014 / 2 on-levels selected: 128.0% 131.0% current prior

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

160.0%

180.0%

200.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1

RSP: Ontario - Total

Paid as % EP Case as % EP IBNR as % EP Favourable Unpaid as % EP

Unfavourable Unpaid as % EP Prior Selected a priori LRs Current Selected a priori LRs

(60.0%)

(40.0%)

(20.0%)

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1

Selected Model Residuals -1 Std Dev +1 Std Dev -2 Std Dev +2 Std Dev


Exhibit B.1.5

Incurred Ultimate Comparison Exhibits

page 1 of 1Facility Association Comparison of Incurred Loss Development Estimates (Indemnity & Allowed Claims Expenses)

Amounts in: $1,000s

RSP Ontario

Valuation as at September 30, 2014

Total

Accident Half

YearBodily Injury Property Damage

Direct Comp

Property Damage

Total sum([1] to

[3])Medical Expense Disability Income Death Benefits Funeral Expense Supplementary

Uninsured

Automobile

Total sum([5] to

[10])

Underinsured

MotoristCollision Comprehensive Specified Perils All Perils

Total sum([12] to

[16])

Total sum([4] +

[11] + [17])

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18]

Prior to 2009 459,266 51,162 241,504 751,932 577,241 187,804 7,946 1,836 2,999 229,296 1,007,122 7,923 265,305 180,546 306 71,630 525,710 2,284,764

2009 / 1 31,365 691 12,921 44,977 78,662 12,886 139 37 ‐ 4,416 96,140 239 9,712 4,672 38 4,770 19,431 160,548

2009 / 2 41,455 792 14,435 56,682 107,679 15,560 260 73 ‐ 3,855 127,427 244 10,647 4,983 24 5,435 21,333 205,442

2010 / 1 52,615 1,033 15,927 69,575 139,248 18,267 145 38 ‐ 3,408 161,106 844 10,924 4,364 14 5,696 21,842 252,523

2010 / 2 55,206 1,077 18,064 74,347 86,611 17,330 82 38 ‐ 3,946 108,007 683 12,956 4,985 26 5,623 24,273 206,627

2011 / 1 32,481 770 14,487 47,738 45,657 12,985 55 15 ‐ 2,360 61,072 818 11,224 4,499 17 4,697 21,255 130,065

2011 / 2 42,788 790 14,781 58,359 36,372 12,961 170 47 ‐ 1,624 51,174 917 11,833 4,074 12 4,924 21,760 131,293

2012 / 1 48,614 894 13,919 63,427 36,744 14,273 68 36 ‐ 3,006 54,127 1,331 10,844 3,953 1 4,213 20,342 137,896

2012 / 2 56,082 831 16,125 73,038 49,805 15,708 346 82 ‐ 2,339 68,280 422 11,900 4,784 ‐ 5,396 22,502 163,820

2013 / 1 49,692 723 15,581 65,996 40,260 13,711 284 82 ‐ 1,826 56,163 341 12,530 3,870 ‐ 4,604 21,345 143,504

2013 / 2 68,154 1,064 18,398 87,616 44,708 15,681 210 67 ‐ 3,431 64,097 954 13,573 5,804 6 6,171 26,508 178,221

2014 / 1 45,488 802 16,466 62,756 37,580 14,647 65 26 ‐ 2,160 54,478 714 13,696 4,187 3 6,512 25,112 142,346

2014 / 2 38,256 790 15,664 54,710 25,989 9,201 93 49 ‐ 458 35,790 68 11,574 4,582 ‐ 5,936 22,160 112,660

Total 1,021,462 61,419 428,272 1,511,153 1,306,556 361,014 9,863 2,426 2,999 262,125 1,944,983 15,498 406,718 235,303 447 135,607 793,573 4,249,709

2014 / 1 &

prior983,206 60,629 412,608 1,456,443 1,280,567 351,813 9,770 2,377 2,999 261,667 1,909,193 15,430 395,144 230,721 447 129,671 771,413 4,137,049

Valuation as at June 30, 2014

Total

Accident Half


Direct Comp

Property Damage

Total sum([19] to


Uninsured

Automobile

Total sum([23] to

[28])

Underinsured


Total sum([30] to

[34])

Total sum([22] +

[29] + [35])

[19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36]

Prior to 2009 460,609 51,162 241,495 753,266 576,068 188,354 7,946 1,836 2,999 229,235 1,006,438 7,967 265,312 180,546 306 71,631 525,762 2,285,466

2009 / 1 31,270 691 12,922 44,883 78,486 12,991 139 37 ‐ 4,169 95,822 249 9,712 4,671 38 4,771 19,441 160,146

2009 / 2 41,480 792 14,435 56,707 106,047 15,370 260 73 ‐ 4,066 125,816 241 10,647 4,948 24 5,435 21,295 203,818

2010 / 1 55,537 1,035 15,930 72,502 139,194 18,036 145 38 ‐ 3,443 160,856 907 10,928 4,364 14 5,696 21,909 255,267

2010 / 2 55,142 1,000 18,064 74,206 88,189 17,460 82 38 ‐ 3,943 109,712 750 12,958 4,986 26 5,620 24,340 208,258

2011 / 1 33,812 774 14,491 49,077 45,118 12,764 55 15 ‐ 2,360 60,312 889 11,231 4,499 17 4,718 21,354 130,743

2011 / 2 45,612 789 14,784 61,185 34,892 13,213 170 47 ‐ 1,607 49,929 906 11,827 4,074 12 4,926 21,745 132,859

2012 / 1 49,323 894 13,919 64,136 36,843 14,373 69 36 ‐ 2,895 54,216 1,522 10,830 3,960 1 4,206 20,519 138,871

2012 / 2 57,709 815 16,139 74,663 50,365 15,086 346 81 ‐ 2,182 68,060 337 11,892 4,776 ‐ 5,400 22,405 165,128

2013 / 1 49,599 700 15,581 65,880 41,721 13,877 290 81 ‐ 1,982 57,951 394 12,545 3,856 ‐ 4,601 21,396 145,227

2013 / 2 70,366 1,009 18,387 89,762 41,686 16,246 190 66 ‐ 3,989 62,177 979 13,479 5,778 6 6,158 26,400 178,339

2014 / 1 47,132 751 16,649 64,532 37,200 13,997 76 27 ‐ 2,063 53,363 598 13,529 3,965 ‐ 6,175 24,267 142,162

2014 / 2 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

Total 997,591 60,412 412,796 1,470,799 1,275,809 351,767 9,768 2,375 2,999 261,934 1,904,652 15,739 394,890 230,423 444 129,337 770,833 4,146,284

2014 / 1 &

prior997,591 60,412 412,796 1,470,799 1,275,809 351,767 9,768 2,375 2,999 261,934 1,904,652 15,739 394,890 230,423 444 129,337 770,833 4,146,284

Change

Total

Accident Half


Direct Comp

Property Damage

Total sum([37] to


Uninsured

Automobile

Total sum([41] to

[46])

Underinsured


Total sum([48] to

[52])

Total sum([40] +

[47] + [53])

[37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54]

Prior to 2008 (766) ‐ 5 (1,334) 1,302 (206) ‐ ‐ ‐ 66 684 (20) (7) ‐ ‐ (1) (52) (702)

2008 / 1 (377) ‐ ‐ (377) (65) (44) ‐ ‐ ‐ 1 (108) ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ (485)

2008 / 2 (200) ‐ 4 (196) (64) (300) ‐ ‐ ‐ (6) (370) (24) ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ (24) (590)

2009 / 1 95 ‐ (1) 94 176 (105) ‐ ‐ ‐ 247 318 (10) ‐ 1 ‐ (1) (10) 402

2009 / 2 (25) ‐ ‐ (25) 1,632 190 ‐ ‐ ‐ (211) 1,611 3 ‐ 35 ‐ ‐ 38 1,624

2010 / 1 (2,922) (2) (3) (2,927) 54 231 ‐ ‐ ‐ (35) 250 (63) (4) ‐ ‐ ‐ (67) (2,744)

2010 / 2 64 77 ‐ 141 (1,578) (130) ‐ ‐ ‐ 3 (1,705) (67) (2) (1) ‐ 3 (67) (1,631)

2011 / 1 (1,331) (4) (4) (1,339) 539 221 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 760 (71) (7) ‐ ‐ (21) (99) (678)

2011 / 2 (2,824) 1 (3) (2,826) 1,480 (252) ‐ ‐ ‐ 17 1,245 11 6 ‐ ‐ (2) 15 (1,566)

2012 / 1 (709) ‐ ‐ (709) (99) (100) (1) ‐ ‐ 111 (89) (191) 14 (7) ‐ 7 (177) (975)

2012 / 2 (1,627) 16 (14) (1,625) (560) 622 ‐ 1 ‐ 157 220 85 8 8 ‐ (4) 97 (1,308)

2013 / 1 93 23 ‐ 116 (1,461) (166) (6) 1 ‐ (156) (1,788) (53) (15) 14 ‐ 3 (51) (1,723)

2013 / 2 (2,212) 55 11 (2,146) 3,022 (565) 20 1 ‐ (558) 1,920 (25) 94 26 ‐ 13 108 (118)

2014 / 1 (1,644) 51 (183) (1,776) 380 650 (11) (1) ‐ 97 1,115 116 167 222 3 337 845 184

2014 / 2 38,256 790 15,664 54,710 25,989 9,201 93 49 ‐ 458 35,790 68 11,574 4,582 ‐ 5,936 22,160 112,660

Total 23,871 1,007 15,476 40,354 30,747 9,247 95 51 ‐ 191 40,331 (241) 11,828 4,880 3 6,270 22,740 103,425

2014 / 1 &

prior(14,385) 217 (188) (14,356) 4,758 46 2 2 ‐ (267) 4,541 (309) 254 298 3 334 580 (9,235)

Third Party Liability Accident Benefits Other Coverages




File: 01a RSP ON 2014‐Q3 ultimate comparison exhibits v01.xlsx FA Actuarial Printed: 10/28/2014, 1:58 PM

Exhibit B.1.6

CAHY Selections



CAHY Selected Ultimate Incurred Amounts

Amounts in $s

Risk Sharing Pool - Ontario

Bodily Injury Property Damage

Direct Comp

Property Damage AccBen (indivis)

Uninsured

Automobile

Underinsured

Motorist

Collision (w All

Perils)

Comprehensive (w

Spec Perils) All Coverages

(1) Projected Earned Premium to December 31, 2014 42,284,284 1,920,137 20,377,076 49,590,724 1,746,194 1,170,031 15,926,041 4,237,123 137,251,610

(2) Paid Indemnity & Allowed Claims Expense at September 30, 2014 3,311 10,737 4,762,270 197,649 14,986 8,254 5,670,609 1,540,361 12,208,177

(3) Case Reserves at September 30, 2014 4,628,143 228,581 2,494,195 7,255,473 35,975 247 2,768,512 489,553 17,900,679

(4) Recorded Indemnity & Allowed Claims Expense at September 30, 2014 4,631,454 239,318 7,256,465 7,453,122 50,961 8,501 8,439,121 2,029,914 30,108,856

(5) A Priori Loss Ratio Estimate Ultimate 66,809,169 1,113,679 16,097,890 66,947,477 3,632,084 748,820 16,722,343 4,194,752 176,266,214

(6) A Priori Loss Ratio = (5) / (1) 158.0% 58.0% 79.0% 135.0% 208.0% 64.0% 105.0% 99.0% 128.4%

(7) Incurred Development Estimate Ultimate 38,256,342 790,475 15,663,762 35,332,469 457,611 68,217 17,509,566 4,581,904 112,660,346

(8) Incurred Development Loss Ratio = (7) / (1) 90.5% 41.2% 76.9% 71.2% 26.2% 5.8% 109.9% 108.1% 82.1%

(9) Bornhuetter Ferguson Estimate Ultimate 63,352,458 1,015,828 15,896,774 60,278,526 3,278,565 664,005 17,101,762 4,366,271 165,954,189

(10) Bornhuetter Ferguson Loss Ratio = (9) / (1) 149.8% 52.9% 78.0% 121.6% 187.8% 56.8% 107.4% 103.0% 120.9%

(11) User Defined Ultimate (zero IBNR at Sep/2014) 9,439,437 487,758 14,789,512 15,190,321 103,864 17,326 17,199,900 4,137,198 61,365,316

(12) User Defined Loss Ratio = (11) / (1) 22.3% 25.4% 72.6% 30.6% 5.9% 1.5% 108.0% 97.6% 44.7%

(13) Weight Applicable to A Priori Loss Ratio Estimate 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

(14) Weight Applicable to Incurred Development Estimate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

(15) Weight Applicable to Bornhuetter Ferguson Estimate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(16) Weight Applicable to User Defined Estimate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

(17) Selected Ultimate = [(5) * (13)] + [(7) * (14)] + [(9) * (15)] + [(11) * (16)]66,809,169 1,113,679 16,097,890 66,947,477 3,632,084 748,820 17,101,762 4,366,271 176,817,152

(18) Selected Ultimate Loss Ratio = (17) / (1) 158.0% 58.0% 79.0% 135.0% 208.0% 64.0% 107.4% 103.0% 128.8%

(19) Earned Premium at September 30, 2014 20,746,759 942,114 9,998,000 24,331,660 856,769 574,075 7,814,103 2,078,942 67,342,422

(20) Selected Ultimate Loss Ratio = (18) 158.0% 58.0% 79.0% 135.0% 208.0% 64.0% 107.4% 103.0% 128.8%

(21) Selected Ultimate at September 30, 2014 = (19) * (20) 32,779,879 546,426 7,898,420 32,847,741 1,782,080 367,408 8,390,970 2,142,308 86,755,232

(22) Selected IBNR at September 30, 2014 = round((21) - (4)) 28,148,000 307,000 642,000 25,395,000 1,731,000 359,000 (48,000) 112,000 56,646,000


Exhibit B.2.1



Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: Third Party Liability

RSP: Ontario

Life to Date

Accident YearEarned

Premium






Claims Expense


Claims Expense


[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14]


2009 & prior 1,026,417 802,870 78.2% 46,538 4.5% 849,408 82.8% 4,320 0.4% 853,728 83.2% 50,858 5.0%

2010 116,252 88,475 76.1% 46,118 39.7% 134,593 115.8% 7,783 6.7% 142,376 122.5% 53,901 46.4%

2011 117,810 51,243 43.5% 40,413 34.3% 91,656 77.8% 16,782 14.2% 108,438 92.0% 57,195 48.5%

2012 126,926 41,743 32.9% 54,747 43.1% 96,490 76.0% 39,463 31.1% 135,953 107.1% 94,210 74.2%

2013 130,567 39,012 29.9% 48,603 37.2% 87,615 67.1% 65,522 50.2% 153,137 117.3% 114,125 87.4%

2014 93,808 20,682 22.0% 22,212 23.7% 42,894 45.7% 67,560 72.0% 110,454 117.7% 89,772 95.7%

TOTAL 1,611,780 1,044,025 64.8% 258,631 16.0% 1,302,656 80.8% 201,430 12.5% 1,504,086 93.3% 460,061 28.5%

2013 & prior 1,517,972 1,023,343 67.4% 236,419 15.6% 1,259,762 83.0% 133,870 8.8% 1,393,632 91.8% 370,289 24.4%


Accident YearEarned

Premium (LTD)










[15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28]


2009 & prior 1,026,417 4,247 0.4% (4,963) (0.5%) (716) (0.1%) (670) (0.1%) (1,386) (0.1%) (5,633) (0.5%)

2010 116,252 4,869 4.2% (4,777) (4.1%) 92 0.1% (2,682) (2.3%) (2,590) (2.2%) (7,459) (6.4%)

2011 117,810 3,062 2.6% (3,724) (3.2%) (662) (0.6%) (3,985) (3.4%) (4,647) (3.9%) (7,709) (6.5%)

2012 126,926 2,020 1.6% 2,928 2.3% 4,948 3.9% (9,322) (7.3%) (4,374) (3.4%) (6,394) (5.0%)

2013 130,567 2,636 2.0% 70 0.1% 2,706 2.1% (8,001) (6.1%) (5,295) (4.1%) (7,931) (6.1%)

TOTAL 1,517,972 16,834 1.1% (10,466) (0.7%) 6,368 0.4% (24,660) (1.6%) (18,292) (1.2%) (35,126) (2.3%)



Unpaid








[29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37]


2009 & prior 4,990 56,491 4,247 7.5% (716) (14.3%) (1,386) (2.5%)

2010 10,465 61,360 4,869 7.9% 92 0.9% (2,590) (4.2%)

2011 20,767 64,904 3,062 4.7% (662) (3.2%) (4,647) (7.2%)

2012 48,785 100,604 2,020 2.0% 4,948 10.1% (4,374) (4.3%)

2013 73,523 122,056 2,636 2.2% 2,706 3.7% (5,295) (4.3%)

TOTAL 158,530 405,415 16,834 4.2% 6,368 4.0% (18,292) (4.5%)



Exhibit B.2.2



Amounts in: $1,000s


RSP: Ontario






[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16]


1993 43,733 34,272 - 34,272 - 34,272 78.4% 78.4% 78.4% 78.4% 78.4% - - - -

1994 83,590 49,012 (1) 49,011 - 49,011 58.6% 58.6% 58.6% 58.6% 58.6% - - - -

1995 86,097 46,582 - 46,582 - 46,582 54.1% 54.1% 54.1% 54.1% 54.1% - - - -

1996 64,608 42,290 353 42,643 - 42,643 66.0% 67.0% 67.0% 66.3% 66.4% (1.0%) (617) (0.4%) (258)

1997 53,175 39,483 - 39,483 - 39,483 74.3% 74.3% 74.3% 74.3% 74.3% - - - -

1998 38,010 32,080 217 32,297 - 32,297 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% - - - -

1999 26,635 31,280 22 31,302 - 31,302 117.5% 117.5% 117.5% 117.5% 117.5% - - - -

2000 27,670 31,586 - 31,586 - 31,586 114.2% 114.2% 114.2% 114.3% 114.3% - - (0.1%) (28)

2001 31,638 36,079 190 36,269 - 36,269 114.6% 114.6% 114.6% 114.7% 114.7% - - (0.1%) (32)

2002 44,637 50,390 8 50,398 11 50,409 112.9% 112.9% 113.0% 112.8% 112.8% - (8) 0.1% 45

2003 55,713 45,691 1,888 47,579 38 47,617 85.5% 85.4% 85.5% 85.5% 85.8% 0.1% 13 (0.3%) (167)

2004 66,497 51,079 425 51,504 62 51,566 77.5% 77.6% 77.6% 77.7% 77.7% (0.1%) (3) (0.2%) (133)

2005 66,816 43,307 742 44,049 75 44,124 66.0% 66.2% 66.7% 66.7% 66.9% (0.2%) (82) (0.9%) (601)

2006 69,800 57,052 6,056 63,108 178 63,286 90.7% 91.2% 91.3% 91.0% 92.0% (0.5%) (340) (1.3%) (907)

2007 78,410 64,864 3,883 68,747 596 69,343 88.4% 88.1% 87.8% 88.2% 88.3% 0.3% 272 0.1% 78

2008 93,757 71,610 9,326 80,936 1,206 82,142 87.6% 88.2% 88.8% 89.1% 89.9% (0.6%) (572) (2.3%) (2,156)

2009 95,631 76,213 23,429 99,642 2,154 101,796 106.4% 106.5% 106.5% 107.0% 106.5% (0.1%) (49) (0.1%) (96)

2010 116,252 88,475 46,118 134,593 7,783 142,376 122.5% 124.7% 126.0% 127.4% 127.2% (2.2%) (2,590) (4.7%) (5,464)

2011 117,810 51,243 40,413 91,656 16,782 108,438 92.0% 96.0% 104.6% 106.1% 110.9% (4.0%) (4,647) (18.9%) (22,266)

2012 126,926 41,743 54,747 96,490 39,463 135,953 107.1% 110.6% 119.2% 120.1% 123.0% (3.5%) (4,374) (15.9%) (20,181)

2013 130,567 39,012 48,603 87,615 65,522 153,137 117.3% 121.3% 132.7% 132.5% 131.4% (4.0%) (5,295) (14.1%) (18,410)

2014 93,808 20,682 22,212 42,894 67,560 110,454 117.7% 115.8% 142.0% - - - - **

TOTAL 1,611,780 1,044,025 258,631 1,302,656 201,430 1,504,086 93.3% 93.9% 96.5% 95.9% 95.7% (18,292) (70,576)

2013 & prior 1,517,972 1,023,343 236,419 1,259,762 133,870 1,393,632 91.8% 93.0% 95.6% 95.9% 95.7% (18,292) (70,576)





Exhibit B.2.3

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 1 134.0% 139.0% (5.0%)

2003 / 2 96.0% 100.0% (4.0%)

2004 / 1 94.0% 98.0% (4.0%)

2004 / 2 104.0% 108.0% (4.0%)

2005 / 1 94.0% 97.0% (3.0%)

2005 / 2 108.0% 112.0% (4.0%)

2006 / 1 98.0% 102.0% (4.0%)

2006 / 2 112.0% 117.0% (5.0%)

2007 / 1 100.0% 104.0% (4.0%)

2007 / 2 115.0% 119.0% (4.0%)

2008 / 1 102.0% 106.0% (4.0%)

2008 / 2 116.0% 120.0% (4.0%)

2009 / 1 102.0% 106.0% (4.0%)

2009 / 2 116.0% 120.0% (4.0%)

2010 / 1 102.0% 106.0% (4.0%)

2010 / 2 109.0% 113.0% (4.0%)


2012 / 1 99.0% 104.0% (5.0%)

2012 / 2 117.0% 122.0% (5.0%)

2013 / 1 107.0% 111.0% (4.0%)

2013 / 2 125.0% 130.0% (5.0%)

2014 / 1 109.0% 113.0% (4.0%)

2014 / 2 129.0% 135.0% (6.0%)

2015 / 1 113.0% 118.0% (5.0%)

2015 / 2 135.0% 141.0% (6.0%)

2016 / 1 118.0% 123.0% (5.0%)

2016 / 2 141.0% 147.0% (6.0%)



Accident

Period

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 1 26,150 20,662 908 21,588 82.6% 1.5473 1.0000 1.0000 40,461 1.4360 1.0000 1.0000 31,000 76.6% -

2003 / 2 29,564 25,029 959 26,017 88.0% 1.4060 1.0000 1.0000 41,566 1.9456 1.0000 1.0000 50,618 121.8% -

2004 / 1 32,323 22,724 234 22,986 71.1% 1.3077 1.0000 1.0000 42,269 1.7794 1.0000 1.0000 40,900 96.8% -

2004 / 2 34,174 28,354 191 28,583 83.6% 1.2598 1.0000 1.0000 43,051 1.5681 1.0000 1.0000 44,820 104.1% -

2005 / 1 33,905 19,677 1,031 20,744 61.2% 1.2606 1.0000 1.0000 42,741 1.7014 1.0000 1.0000 35,294 82.6% -

2005 / 2 32,910 22,705 706 23,461 71.3% 1.2729 1.0000 1.0000 41,892 1.4780 1.0000 1.0000 34,675 82.8% -

2006 / 1 32,706 24,160 843 25,031 76.5% 1.2794 1.0000 1.0000 41,843 1.6992 1.0000 1.0000 42,531 101.6% -

2006 / 2 37,093 32,636 5,734 38,596 104.1% 1.2772 1.0000 1.0000 47,375 1.4823 1.0000 1.0000 57,209 120.8% -

2007 / 1 38,499 30,093 950 31,239 81.1% 1.2749 1.0000 1.0000 49,081 1.6143 1.0000 1.0000 50,428 102.7% -

2007 / 2 39,913 34,519 2,741 37,833 94.8% 1.2685 1.0000 1.0000 50,631 1.4241 1.0000 1.0000 53,876 106.4% -

2008 / 1 46,492 35,351 4,989 40,919 88.0% 1.2568 1.0000 1.0000 58,431 1.5796 1.0000 1.0000 64,636 110.6% 8.3%

2008 / 2 47,264 35,133 5,968 41,795 88.4% 1.2407 1.0000 1.0000 58,641 1.3601 1.0000 1.0000 56,844 96.9% 8.3%

2009 / 1 46,600 33,205 10,921 44,882 96.3% 1.2232 1.0000 1.0000 57,000 1.5403 1.0000 1.0000 69,131 121.3% 8.3%

2009 / 2 49,031 42,185 13,054 56,963 116.2% 1.2031 1.0000 1.0000 58,988 1.3492 1.0000 1.0000 76,851 130.3% 8.3%

2010 / 1 55,043 43,584 24,050 71,327 129.6% 1.1844 1.0000 1.0000 65,191 1.5236 1.0000 1.0000 108,675 166.7% 8.3%

2010 / 2 61,209 40,022 26,846 73,640 120.3% 1.1666 1.0000 1.0000 71,409 1.3838 1.0000 1.0000 101,904 142.7% 8.3%

2011 / 1 58,131 23,843 19,232 50,483 86.8% 1.1093 1.0000 1.0000 64,487 1.4807 1.0000 1.0000 74,749 115.9% 8.3%

2011 / 2 59,680 24,338 24,905 62,602 104.9% 1.0647 1.0000 1.0000 63,541 1.2604 1.0000 1.0000 78,902 124.2% 8.3%

2012 / 1 62,669 20,036 25,584 63,811 101.8% 1.0487 1.0000 1.0000 65,718 1.3709 1.0000 1.0000 87,480 133.1% 8.3%

2012 / 2 64,255 19,686 26,235 76,516 119.1% 1.0391 1.0000 1.0000 66,766 1.1493 1.0000 1.0000 87,943 131.7% 8.3%

2013 / 1 64,645 17,288 21,087 70,530 109.1% 1.0303 1.0000 1.0000 66,603 1.2439 1.0000 1.0000 87,732 131.7% 8.3%

2013 / 2 65,948 19,087 27,447 87,902 133.3% 1.0108 1.0000 1.0000 66,658 1.0445 1.0000 1.0000 91,812 137.7% 8.3%

Total 1,018,204 614,319 244,615 1,017,445 99.9% 1.1828 1.0000 1.0000 1,204,343 1.4035 1.0000 1.0000 1,428,010 118.6% 100.0%



-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

160.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1

RSP: Ontario - Third Party Liability



(60.0%)

(50.0%)

(40.0%)

(30.0%)

(20.0%)

(10.0%)

-

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1



Exhibit B.2.3a

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: BI

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 1 192.0% 203.0% (11.0%)

2003 / 2 123.0% 131.0% (8.0%)

2004 / 1 125.0% 132.0% (7.0%)

2004 / 2 139.0% 147.0% (8.0%)

2005 / 1 121.0% 128.0% (7.0%)

2005 / 2 142.0% 150.0% (8.0%)

2006 / 1 125.0% 132.0% (7.0%)

2006 / 2 145.0% 154.0% (9.0%)

2007 / 1 126.0% 133.0% (7.0%)

2007 / 2 146.0% 154.0% (8.0%)

2008 / 1 126.0% 134.0% (8.0%)

2008 / 2 146.0% 155.0% (9.0%)

2009 / 1 125.0% 132.0% (7.0%)

2009 / 2 142.0% 150.0% (8.0%)

2010 / 1 122.0% 129.0% (7.0%)

2010 / 2 132.0% 139.0% (7.0%)


2012 / 1 115.0% 122.0% (7.0%)

2012 / 2 140.0% 148.0% (8.0%)

2013 / 1 127.0% 134.0% (7.0%)

2013 / 2 153.0% 161.0% (8.0%)

2014 / 1 129.0% 136.0% (7.0%)

2014 / 2 158.0% 167.0% (9.0%)

2015 / 1 135.0% 143.0% (8.0%)

2015 / 2 166.0% 176.0% (10.0%)

2016 / 1 142.0% 150.0% (8.0%)

2016 / 2 174.0% 184.0% (10.0%)



Accident

Period

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 1 12,614 11,971 908 12,896 102.2% 2.0840 1.0000 1.0000 26,288 1.7164 1.0000 1.0000 22,135 84.2% -

2003 / 2 14,921 16,821 951 17,800 119.3% 1.8096 1.0000 1.0000 27,001 2.3165 1.0000 1.0000 41,233 152.7% -

2004 / 1 16,724 14,840 226 15,092 90.2% 1.6422 1.0000 1.0000 27,464 2.0791 1.0000 1.0000 31,379 114.3% -

2004 / 2 18,029 19,632 178 19,848 110.1% 1.5523 1.0000 1.0000 27,986 1.7602 1.0000 1.0000 34,936 124.8% -

2005 / 1 18,189 12,013 1,009 13,059 71.8% 1.5260 1.0000 1.0000 27,756 1.9987 1.0000 1.0000 26,102 94.0% -

2005 / 2 17,863 13,908 673 14,630 81.9% 1.5218 1.0000 1.0000 27,184 1.6922 1.0000 1.0000 24,757 91.1% -

2006 / 1 17,886 16,631 803 17,462 97.6% 1.5175 1.0000 1.0000 27,142 1.9215 1.0000 1.0000 33,553 123.6% -

2006 / 2 20,557 21,809 5,688 27,722 134.9% 1.4947 1.0000 1.0000 30,727 1.6268 1.0000 1.0000 45,099 146.8% -

2007 / 1 21,628 19,267 934 20,396 94.3% 1.4717 1.0000 1.0000 31,830 1.8473 1.0000 1.0000 37,678 118.4% -

2007 / 2 22,786 23,065 2,682 26,320 115.5% 1.4410 1.0000 1.0000 32,835 1.5639 1.0000 1.0000 41,161 125.4% -

2008 / 1 26,670 22,177 4,986 27,742 104.0% 1.4207 1.0000 1.0000 37,890 1.7758 1.0000 1.0000 49,264 130.0% 8.3%

2008 / 2 27,306 20,479 5,962 27,135 99.4% 1.3924 1.0000 1.0000 38,021 1.5035 1.0000 1.0000 40,797 107.3% 8.3%

2009 / 1 27,392 19,618 10,896 31,269 114.2% 1.3494 1.0000 1.0000 36,963 1.7072 1.0000 1.0000 53,383 144.4% 8.3%

2009 / 2 29,477 27,195 12,818 41,736 141.6% 1.2977 1.0000 1.0000 38,252 1.4454 1.0000 1.0000 60,325 157.7% 8.3%

2010 / 1 32,660 26,656 24,012 54,361 166.4% 1.2655 1.0000 1.0000 41,331 1.6413 1.0000 1.0000 89,223 215.9% 8.3%

2010 / 2 36,610 21,029 26,774 54,575 149.1% 1.2316 1.0000 1.0000 45,089 1.4785 1.0000 1.0000 80,689 179.0% 8.3%

2011 / 1 35,369 8,615 19,195 35,218 99.6% 1.1457 1.0000 1.0000 40,522 1.6172 1.0000 1.0000 56,955 140.6% 8.3%

2011 / 2 37,519 8,797 24,874 47,029 125.3% 1.0730 1.0000 1.0000 40,258 1.3189 1.0000 1.0000 62,027 154.1% 8.3%

2012 / 1 39,894 5,268 25,544 48,997 122.8% 1.0503 1.0000 1.0000 41,901 1.4426 1.0000 1.0000 70,683 168.7% 8.3%

2012 / 2 40,892 2,854 26,130 59,466 145.4% 1.0406 1.0000 1.0000 42,552 1.1764 1.0000 1.0000 69,956 164.4% 8.3%

2013 / 1 41,364 1,230 20,901 53,970 130.5% 1.0343 1.0000 1.0000 42,783 1.2867 1.0000 1.0000 69,443 162.3% 8.3%

2013 / 2 42,333 208 27,168 68,432 161.7% 1.0130 1.0000 1.0000 42,883 1.0494 1.0000 1.0000 71,813 167.5% 8.3%

Total 598,683 334,083 243,310 735,158 122.8% 1.2939 1.0000 1.0000 774,658 1.5134 1.0000 1.0000 1,112,591 143.6% 100.0%



-

30.0%

60.0%

90.0%

120.0%

150.0%

180.0%

210.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1

RSP: Ontario - Bodily Injury



(100.0%)

(80.0%)

(60.0%)

(40.0%)

(20.0%)

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1



Exhibit B.2.3b

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: PD

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 1 51.0% 49.0% 2.0%

2003 / 2 49.0% 47.0% 2.0%

2004 / 1 45.0% 44.0% 1.0%

2004 / 2 43.0% 41.0% 2.0%

2005 / 1 46.0% 44.0% 2.0%

2005 / 2 49.0% 48.0% 1.0%

2006 / 1 52.0% 50.0% 2.0%

2006 / 2 54.0% 52.0% 2.0%

2007 / 1 55.0% 52.0% 3.0%

2007 / 2 55.0% 53.0% 2.0%

2008 / 1 55.0% 53.0% 2.0%

2008 / 2 56.0% 53.0% 3.0%

2009 / 1 57.0% 55.0% 2.0%

2009 / 2 59.0% 57.0% 2.0%

2010 / 1 60.0% 58.0% 2.0%

2010 / 2 59.0% 57.0% 2.0%

2011 / 1 58.0% 56.0% 2.0% Selected Model Loss Ratio Residuals Plot2011 / 2 57.0% 55.0% 2.0%

2012 / 1 56.0% 54.0% 2.0%

2012 / 2 56.0% 54.0% 2.0%

2013 / 1 57.0% 54.0% 3.0%

2013 / 2 57.0% 54.0% 3.0%

2014 / 1 57.0% 55.0% 2.0%

2014 / 2 58.0% 56.0% 2.0%

2015 / 1 59.0% 56.0% 3.0%

2015 / 2 59.0% 57.0% 2.0%

2016 / 1 60.0% 57.0% 3.0%

2016 / 2 60.0% 58.0% 2.0%



Accident

Period

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 1 772 351 (0) 351 45.5% 1.0765 1.0000 1.0000 831 1.2274 1.0000 1.0000 431 51.9% -

2003 / 2 830 431 (0) 431 52.0% 1.0291 1.0000 1.0000 854 1.2208 1.0000 1.0000 527 61.7% -

2004 / 1 925 371 (0) 371 40.2% 0.9391 1.0000 1.0000 869 1.2035 1.0000 1.0000 447 51.4% -

2004 / 2 999 342 0 342 34.2% 0.8858 1.0000 1.0000 885 1.1930 1.0000 1.0000 408 46.1% -

2005 / 1 931 377 4 382 41.0% 0.9416 1.0000 1.0000 877 1.1826 1.0000 1.0000 451 51.4% -

2005 / 2 858 524 3 527 61.4% 0.9993 1.0000 1.0000 857 1.1724 1.0000 1.0000 618 72.1% -

2006 / 1 825 398 (0) 398 48.2% 1.0387 1.0000 1.0000 857 1.1604 1.0000 1.0000 461 53.8% -

2006 / 2 902 703 4 708 78.4% 1.0749 1.0000 1.0000 970 1.1506 1.0000 1.0000 814 83.9% -

2007 / 1 937 677 2 679 72.5% 1.0725 1.0000 1.0000 1,005 1.1409 1.0000 1.0000 775 77.1% -

2007 / 2 971 767 4 772 79.5% 1.0670 1.0000 1.0000 1,036 1.1314 1.0000 1.0000 873 84.3% -

2008 / 1 1,126 641 0 641 56.9% 1.0623 1.0000 1.0000 1,196 1.1203 1.0000 1.0000 718 60.0% 8.3%

2008 / 2 1,128 811 0 811 71.9% 1.0646 1.0000 1.0000 1,201 1.1111 1.0000 1.0000 902 75.1% 8.3%

2009 / 1 1,079 687 4 691 64.1% 1.0797 1.0000 1.0000 1,165 1.1021 1.0000 1.0000 762 65.4% 8.3%

2009 / 2 1,088 792 0 792 72.8% 1.1086 1.0000 1.0000 1,206 1.0915 1.0000 1.0000 864 71.6% 8.3%

2010 / 1 1,630 1,033 2 1,035 63.5% 1.1180 1.0000 1.0000 1,822 1.0828 1.0000 1.0000 1,121 61.5% 8.3%

2010 / 2 1,804 997 3 1,000 55.4% 1.0968 1.0000 1.0000 1,979 1.0726 1.0000 1.0000 1,073 54.2% 8.3%

2011 / 1 1,600 770 4 774 48.4% 1.0623 1.0000 1.0000 1,700 1.0642 1.0000 1.0000 824 48.5% 8.3%

2011 / 2 1,580 782 6 789 49.9% 1.0306 1.0000 1.0000 1,628 1.0543 1.0000 1.0000 831 51.0% 8.3%

2012 / 1 1,676 893 1 900 53.7% 1.0126 1.0000 1.0000 1,697 1.0445 1.0000 1.0000 940 55.4% 8.3%

2012 / 2 1,784 780 16 908 50.9% 1.0049 1.0000 1.0000 1,793 1.0366 1.0000 1.0000 941 52.5% 8.3%

2013 / 1 1,942 609 37 962 49.5% 1.0014 1.0000 1.0000 1,945 1.0272 1.0000 1.0000 988 50.8% 8.3%

2013 / 2 2,031 689 102 1,086 53.5% 0.9925 1.0000 1.0000 2,016 1.0180 1.0000 1.0000 1,105 54.8% 8.3%

Total 27,418 14,426 194 15,348 56.0% 1.0354 1.0000 1.0000 28,389 1.0993 1.0000 1.0000 16,874 59.4% 100.0%



(5.0%)

5.0%

15.0%

25.0%

35.0%

45.0%

55.0%

65.0%

75.0%

85.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1

RSP: Ontario - Property Damage



(25.0%) (20.0%) (15.0%) (10.0%)

(5.0%) -

5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1



Exhibit B.2.3c

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: DCPD

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 1 82.0% 82.0% -

2003 / 2 69.0% 69.0% -

2004 / 1 62.0% 62.0% -

2004 / 2 66.0% 65.0% 1.0%

2005 / 1 63.0% 63.0% -

2005 / 2 69.0% 69.0% -

2006 / 1 66.0% 66.0% -

2006 / 2 71.0% 71.0% -

2007 / 1 68.0% 68.0% -

2007 / 2 74.0% 74.0% -

2008 / 1 70.0% 70.0% -

2008 / 2 75.0% 74.0% 1.0%

2009 / 1 71.0% 71.0% -

2009 / 2 77.0% 77.0% -

2010 / 1 73.0% 73.0% -

2010 / 2 76.0% 76.0% -

2011 / 1 71.0% 71.0% - Selected Model Loss Ratio Residuals Plot2011 / 2 77.0% 76.0% 1.0%

2012 / 1 73.0% 73.0% -

2012 / 2 78.0% 78.0% -

2013 / 1 73.0% 73.0% -

2013 / 2 77.0% 77.0% -

2014 / 1 73.0% 73.0% -

2014 / 2 79.0% 79.0% -

2015 / 1 75.0% 75.0% -

2015 / 2 81.0% 81.0% -

2016 / 1 77.0% 77.0% -

2016 / 2 83.0% 83.0% -



Accident

Period

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 1 12,764 8,340 0 8,340 65.3% 1.0453 1.0000 1.0000 13,342 1.0113 1.0000 1.0000 8,434 63.2% -

2003 / 2 13,813 7,777 9 7,785 56.4% 0.9926 1.0000 1.0000 13,711 1.1378 1.0000 1.0000 8,858 64.6% -

2004 / 1 14,674 7,513 9 7,522 51.3% 0.9497 1.0000 1.0000 13,936 1.2064 1.0000 1.0000 9,074 65.1% -

2004 / 2 15,146 8,380 13 8,393 55.4% 0.9362 1.0000 1.0000 14,180 1.1290 1.0000 1.0000 9,476 66.8% -

2005 / 1 14,785 7,286 18 7,303 49.4% 0.9542 1.0000 1.0000 14,108 1.1969 1.0000 1.0000 8,741 62.0% -

2005 / 2 14,189 8,274 31 8,304 58.5% 0.9762 1.0000 1.0000 13,851 1.1199 1.0000 1.0000 9,300 67.1% -

2006 / 1 13,995 7,131 40 7,171 51.2% 0.9892 1.0000 1.0000 13,844 1.1877 1.0000 1.0000 8,517 61.5% -

2006 / 2 15,634 10,124 42 10,166 65.0% 1.0028 1.0000 1.0000 15,678 1.1112 1.0000 1.0000 11,296 72.1% -

2007 / 1 15,934 10,148 14 10,163 63.8% 1.0196 1.0000 1.0000 16,246 1.1783 1.0000 1.0000 11,975 73.7% -

2007 / 2 16,156 10,686 55 10,741 66.5% 1.0374 1.0000 1.0000 16,760 1.1025 1.0000 1.0000 11,842 70.7% -

2008 / 1 18,696 12,533 3 12,537 67.1% 1.0347 1.0000 1.0000 19,345 1.1689 1.0000 1.0000 14,654 75.8% 8.3%

2008 / 2 18,830 13,843 6 13,849 73.5% 1.0313 1.0000 1.0000 19,419 1.0936 1.0000 1.0000 15,145 78.0% 8.3%

2009 / 1 18,129 12,900 21 12,922 71.3% 1.0410 1.0000 1.0000 18,872 1.1598 1.0000 1.0000 14,986 79.4% 8.3%

2009 / 2 18,466 14,199 236 14,435 78.2% 1.0576 1.0000 1.0000 19,530 1.0850 1.0000 1.0000 15,662 80.2% 8.3%

2010 / 1 20,753 15,895 35 15,930 76.8% 1.0619 1.0000 1.0000 22,038 1.1507 1.0000 1.0000 18,331 83.2% 8.3%

2010 / 2 22,795 17,996 68 18,064 79.2% 1.0678 1.0000 1.0000 24,341 1.1150 1.0000 1.0000 20,142 82.7% 8.3%

2011 / 1 21,162 14,458 33 14,491 68.5% 1.0521 1.0000 1.0000 22,265 1.1711 1.0000 1.0000 16,970 76.2% 8.3%

2011 / 2 20,581 14,759 25 14,784 71.8% 1.0522 1.0000 1.0000 21,655 1.0852 1.0000 1.0000 16,044 74.1% 8.3%

2012 / 1 21,099 13,876 39 13,915 65.9% 1.0484 1.0000 1.0000 22,120 1.1396 1.0000 1.0000 15,857 71.7% 8.3%

2012 / 2 21,579 16,053 89 16,142 74.8% 1.0390 1.0000 1.0000 22,421 1.0560 1.0000 1.0000 17,046 76.0% 8.3%

2013 / 1 21,339 15,449 149 15,598 73.1% 1.0251 1.0000 1.0000 21,875 1.1092 1.0000 1.0000 17,301 79.1% 8.3%

2013 / 2 21,584 18,190 176 18,384 85.2% 1.0081 1.0000 1.0000 21,759 1.0277 1.0000 1.0000 18,894 86.8% 8.3%

Total 392,103 265,810 1,111 266,939 68.1% 1.0234 1.0000 1.0000 401,296 1.1184 1.0000 1.0000 298,545 74.4% 100.0%



-

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1

RSP: Ontario - Direct Comp Property Damage



(20.0%)

(15.0%)

(10.0%)

(5.0%)

-

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1



Exhibit B.2.4-1






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]

=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 43,733 34,272 0 34,272 34,272 34,272 34,272 34,272

1994 83,590 49,012 (0) 49,011 49,011 49,011 49,011 58.6% 58.6% 58.6% 49,011 58.6%

1995 86,097 46,582 (0) 46,582 46,582 46,582 46,582 54.1% 54.1% 54.1% 46,582 54.1%

1996 64,608 42,290 353 42,643 42,643 42,643 42,643 66.0% 66.0% 66.0% 42,643 66.0%

1997 53,175 39,483 0 39,483 39,483 39,483 39,483 74.3% 74.3% 74.3% 39,483 74.3%

1998 38,010 32,080 217 32,297 32,297 32,297 32,297 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 32,297 85.0%

1999 26,635 31,280 22 31,302 31,302 31,302 31,302 117.5% 117.5% 117.5% 31,302 117.5%

2000 27,670 31,586 0 31,586 31,586 31,586 31,586 114.2% 114.2% 114.2% 31,586 114.2%

2001 31,638 36,079 190 36,269 36,269 36,269 36,269 114.6% 114.6% 114.6% 36,269 114.6%

2002 44,637 50,390 7 50,398 50,409 50,409 50,398 112.9% 112.9% 112.9% 50,409 112.9%

2003 55,713 45,691 1,887 47,579 47,617 47,617 47,579 85.5% 85.5% 85.4% 47,617 85.5%

2004 66,497 51,079 425 51,504 51,565 51,565 51,504 77.5% 77.5% 77.5% 51,566 77.5%

2005 66,816 43,307 742 44,049 44,124 44,124 44,049 66.0% 66.0% 65.9% 44,124 66.0%

2006 69,800 57,052 6,056 63,108 63,286 63,286 63,108 90.7% 90.7% 90.4% 63,286 90.7%

2007 78,410 64,864 3,883 68,747 69,343 69,343 68,747 88.4% 88.4% 87.7% 69,343 88.4%

2008 93,757 71,610 9,326 80,936 82,142 82,142 80,936 87.6% 87.6% 86.3% 82,142 87.6%

2009 95,631 76,213 23,429 99,642 101,658 101,658 99,642 106.3% 106.3% 104.2% 101,796 106.4%

2010 116,252 88,475 46,118 134,593 122,687 143,921 7.3% 92.7% 142,377 142,967 134,593 105.5% 123.8% 122.5% 123.0% 115.8% 142,376 122.5%

2011 117,810 51,243 40,413 91,656 120,712 106,098 16.0% 84.0% 108,438 110,600 91,656 102.5% 90.1% 92.0% 93.9% 77.8% 108,438 92.0%

2012 126,926 41,743 54,747 96,490 137,301 136,464 (42.9%) 142.9% 136,106 137,138 96,490 108.2% 107.5% 107.2% 108.0% 76.0% 135,953 107.1%

2013 130,567 39,012 48,603 87,615 151,730 153,614 24.5% 75.5% 153,152 151,562 87,615 116.2% 117.7% 117.3% 116.1% 67.1% 153,137 117.3%

2014 93,808 20,682 22,211 42,894 151,547 117,467 87.6% 12.4% 147,334 67,527 42,894 110,454 117.7%

Total 1,611,782 1,044,025 258,632 1,302,657 683,977 1,511,154 687,406 1,463,384 1,302,657 1,504,087




Exhibit B.2.4-2






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



MethodBF Method*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

ELR Method*LR Ratio


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 34,272 34,272 34,272 - 34,272 34,272 - 34,272 - - -

1994 49,011 49,011 49,011 N/A - 49,011 58.6% 49,011 N/A - 49,011 58.6% - - - -

1995 46,582 46,582 46,582 N/A - 46,582 54.1% 46,582 N/A - 46,582 54.1% - - - -

1996 42,643 42,643 42,643 N/A - 42,643 66.0% 43,260 N/A - 43,260 67.0% (617) - (617) (1.0%)

1997 39,483 39,483 39,483 N/A - 39,483 74.3% 39,483 N/A - 39,483 74.3% - - - -

1998 32,297 32,297 32,297 N/A - 32,297 85.0% 32,297 N/A - 32,297 85.0% - - - -

1999 31,302 31,302 31,302 N/A - 31,302 117.5% 31,302 N/A - 31,302 117.5% - - - -

2000 31,586 31,586 31,586 N/A - 31,586 114.2% 31,586 N/A - 31,586 114.2% - - - -

2001 36,269 36,269 36,269 N/A - 36,269 114.6% 36,269 N/A - 36,269 114.6% - - - -

2002 50,409 50,409 50,398 N/A 11 50,409 112.9% 50,416 N/A 19 50,417 112.9% - (8) (8) -

2003 47,617 47,617 47,579 N/A 38 47,617 85.5% 47,604 N/A 45 47,604 85.4% 20 (7) 13 0.1%

2004 51,565 51,565 51,504 N/A 62 51,566 77.5% 51,568 N/A 65 51,569 77.6% 1 (3) (2) (0.1%)

2005 44,124 44,124 44,049 N/A 75 44,124 66.0% 44,205 N/A 87 44,206 66.2% (70) (12) (82) (0.2%)

2006 63,286 63,286 63,108 N/A 178 63,286 90.7% 63,626 N/A 254 63,626 91.2% (264) (76) (340) (0.5%)

2007 69,343 69,343 68,747 N/A 596 69,343 88.4% 69,071 N/A 769 69,071 88.1% 445 (173) 272 0.3%

2008 82,142 82,142 80,936 N/A 1,206 82,142 87.6% 82,714 N/A 1,272 82,714 88.2% (506) (66) (572) (0.6%)

2009 101,658 101,658 99,642 N/A 2,154 101,796 106.4% 101,590 N/A 2,479 101,845 106.5% 276 (325) (49) (0.1%)

2010 122,687 143,921 142,377 142,967 134,593 N/A 7,783 142,376 122.5% 127,467 146,708 144,967 N/A 10,465 144,966 124.7% 92 (2,682) (2,590) (2.2%)

2011 120,712 106,098 108,438 110,600 91,656 N/A 16,782 108,438 92.0% 125,193 110,261 113,085 N/A 20,767 113,085 96.0% (662) (3,985) (4,647) (4.0%)

2012 137,301 136,464 136,106 137,138 96,490 N/A 39,463 135,953 107.1% 143,293 138,798 139,956 N/A 48,785 140,327 110.6% 4,948 (9,322) (4,374) (3.5%)

2013 151,730 153,614 153,152 151,562 87,615 N/A 65,522 153,137 117.3% 157,925 155,641 157,563 N/A 73,523 158,432 121.3% 2,706 (8,001) (5,295) (4.0%)

2014 151,547 117,467 147,334 67,527 42,894 N/A 67,560 110,454 117.7% 70,997 64,532 70,564 N/A 45,374 72,667 115.8% 15,601 22,186 37,787 1.9%

Total 683,977 1,511,154 687,406 1,463,384 1,302,657 201,430 1,504,087 624,875 1,470,797 626,133 203,904 1,484,591 21,970 (2,474) 19,496

2013 & Prior 532,430 1,393,688 540,073 1,395,858 1,259,763 133,870 1,393,633 553,879 1,406,265 555,570 158,530 1,411,924 6,369 (24,660) (18,291)




Exhibit B.2.4a-1





Coverage: Bodily Injury

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 43,733 20,166 0 20,166 20,166 20,166 20,166 20,166

1994 / 1 38,528 7,803 (0) 7,803 7,803 - 100.0% 7,803 7,803 7,803

1994 / 2 45,062 13,472 0 13,472 13,472 - 100.0% 13,472 13,472 13,472

1995 / 1 45,745 10,614 0 10,614 10,614 - 100.0% 10,614 10,614 10,614

1995 / 2 40,352 9,029 (0) 9,029 9,029 - 100.0% 9,029 9,029 9,029

1996 / 1 34,121 7,708 353 8,062 8,062 - 100.0% 8,062 8,062 8,062

1996 / 2 30,487 13,108 (0) 13,108 13,108 - 100.0% 13,108 13,108 13,108

1997 / 1 27,955 11,206 (0) 11,206 11,206 - 100.0% 11,206 11,206 11,206

1997 / 2 25,221 10,274 (0) 10,274 10,274 - 100.0% 10,274 10,274 10,274

1998 / 1 21,209 9,773 217 9,989 9,989 - 100.0% 9,989 9,989 9,989

1998 / 2 16,802 9,396 0 9,396 9,396 - 100.0% 9,396 9,396 9,396

1999 / 1 13,390 9,723 (0) 9,723 9,723 - 100.0% 9,723 9,723 9,723

1999 / 2 13,245 11,012 21 11,033 11,033 - 100.0% 11,033 11,033 11,033

2000 / 1 13,460 11,941 0 11,941 11,941 - 100.0% 11,941 11,941 11,941

2000 / 2 14,210 7,995 (0) 7,995 7,995 - 100.0% 7,995 7,995 7,995

2001 / 1 14,381 10,043 190 10,233 10,233 - 100.0% 10,233 10,233 10,233

2001 / 2 17,257 12,765 (0) 12,765 12,765 - 100.0% 12,765 12,765 12,765

2002 / 1 20,759 16,570 4 16,574 16,578 - 100.0% 16,578 16,574 16,577

2002 / 2 23,877 16,490 (0) 16,490 16,499 - 100.0% 16,499 16,490 16,498

2003 / 1 26,149 11,971 928 12,899 12,912 - 100.0% 12,912 12,899 12,912

2003 / 2 29,564 16,821 951 17,772 17,797 - 100.0% 17,797 17,772 17,797

2004 / 1 32,323 14,840 226 15,065 15,091 - 100.0% 15,091 15,065 15,091

2004 / 2 34,174 19,632 178 19,810 19,846 - 100.0% 19,846 19,810 19,846

2005 / 1 33,906 12,932 10 12,942 12,972 - 100.0% 12,972 12,942 12,972

2005 / 2 32,910 13,915 676 14,591 14,636 - 100.0% 14,636 14,591 14,636

2006 / 1 32,707 16,655 784 17,439 17,483 - 100.0% 17,483 17,439 17,483

2006 / 2 37,104 22,042 5,186 27,227 27,361 - 100.0% 27,361 27,227 27,361

2007 / 1 38,546 19,290 1,173 20,463 20,645 - 100.0% 20,645 20,463 20,645

2007 / 2 39,980 23,289 2,635 25,924 26,338 - 100.0% 26,338 25,924 26,338

2008 / 1 46,539 22,993 3,792 26,785 27,365 - 100.0% 27,365 26,785 27,366

2008 / 2 47,212 20,783 5,527 26,310 26,935 - 100.0% 26,935 26,310 26,935

2009 / 1 41,137 19,968 10,617 30,585 31,365 - 100.0% 31,365 30,585 31,364

2009 / 2 32,470 27,668 12,551 40,219 46,107 41,455 3.0% 97.0% 41,594 - 100.0% 41,455 40,219 142.0% 127.7% 128.1% 127.7% 123.9% 41,594 128.1%

2010 / 1 32,660 29,203 20,176 49,379 39,846 52,615 6.1% 93.9% 51,829 - 100.0% 52,615 49,379 122.0% 161.1% 158.7% 161.1% 151.2% 51,829 158.7%

2010 / 2 36,610 23,350 25,763 49,113 48,325 55,206 11.0% 89.0% 54,446 12.5% 87.5% 54,346 49,113 132.0% 150.8% 148.7% 148.4% 134.2% 54,446 148.7%

2011 / 1 35,369 10,499 16,939 27,437 39,613 32,481 15.5% 84.5% 33,589 25.0% 75.0% 34,264 27,437 112.0% 91.8% 95.0% 96.9% 77.6% 33,589 95.0%

2011 / 2 37,518 9,972 23,418 33,390 48,399 42,788 22.0% 78.0% 44,020 37.5% 62.5% 44,892 33,390 129.0% 114.0% 117.3% 119.7% 89.0% 44,020 117.3%

2012 / 1 39,893 6,081 27,050 33,131 45,877 48,614 31.8% 68.2% 47,742 50.0% 50.0% 47,245 33,131 115.0% 121.9% 119.7% 118.4% 83.0% 47,245 118.4%

2012 / 2 40,894 4,044 27,556 31,601 57,251 56,082 43.7% 56.3% 56,592 62.5% 37.5% 56,813 31,601 140.0% 137.1% 138.4% 138.9% 77.3% 56,813 138.9%

2013 / 1 41,367 2,163 21,402 23,565 52,536 49,692 52.6% 47.4% 51,187 75.0% 25.0% 51,825 23,565 127.0% 120.1% 123.7% 125.3% 57.0% 51,824 125.3%

2013 / 2 42,313 1,594 26,870 28,464 64,738 68,154 58.2% 41.8% 66,165 87.5% 12.5% 65,165 28,464 153.0% 161.1% 156.4% 154.0% 67.3% 65,166 154.0%

2014 / 1 40,133 97 14,259 14,355 51,772 45,488 68.4% 31.6% 49,789 100.0% - 51,772 14,355 129.0% 113.3% 124.1% 129.0% 35.8% 51,771 129.0%

2014 / 2 20,747 3 4,628 4,631 66,809 38,256 87.9% 12.1% 63,352 - - - 4,631 158.0% 90.5% 149.8% - - 32,779 158.0%

Total 1,372,019 568,893 254,079 822,972 561,273 1,021,462 560,307 991,022 822,972 1,021,708


**For 'off-half' valuation quarters (Mar and Sep), the current accident half-year (CAHY) by method Ultimate Loss estimates ([5] to [22]) are based on projected full AHY Earned Premium estimates


Exhibit B.2.4a-2



Comparison of Estimated IBNR by Method


Coverage: Bodily Injury

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

User Defined

1 IBNR

User Defined

2 IBNRSelected IBNR Method

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*Selected IBNR Method

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 20,166 - - 20,166 - - -

1994 / 1 - - - Link Ratio Method - 7,803 - Link Ratio Method - 7,803 - - -





1996 / 2 - - - Link Ratio Method - 13,108 - Link Ratio Method - 13,724 (617) - (617)











2002 / 1 3 3 - Link Ratio Method 3 16,577 7 Link Ratio Method 7 16,581 - (4) (4)


2003 / 1 13 13 - Link Ratio Method 13 12,912 17 Link Ratio Method 17 12,896 20 (4) 16



2004 / 2 36 36 - Link Ratio Method 36 19,846 38 Link Ratio Method 38 19,848 1 (2) (1)

2005 / 1 30 30 - Link Ratio Method 30 12,972 37 Link Ratio Method 37 13,059 (80) (7) (87)


2006 / 1 44 44 - Link Ratio Method 44 17,483 28 Link Ratio Method 28 17,462 5 16 21




2008 / 1 581 581 - Link Ratio Method 581 27,366 579 Link Ratio Method 579 27,742 (378) 2 (376)


2009 / 1 779 779 - Link Ratio Method 779 31,364 756 Link Ratio Method 756 31,269 72 23 95

2009 / 2 5,888 1,237 1,375 1,237 - BF Method 1,375 41,594 128.1% 8,692 1,467 1,723 BF Method 1,723 41,736 128.5% 206 (348) (142) (0.4%)

2010 / 1 (9,534) 3,235 2,450 3,235 - BF Method 2,450 51,829 158.7% (8,537) 4,868 3,693 BF Method 3,693 54,361 166.4% (1,289) (1,243) (2,532) (7.7%)

2010 / 2 (788) 6,093 5,333 5,232 - BF Method 5,333 54,446 148.7% 3,085 7,338 6,772 BF Method 6,772 54,575 149.1% 1,310 (1,439) (129) (0.4%)

2011 / 1 12,175 5,044 6,152 6,827 - BF Method 6,152 33,589 95.0% 13,925 6,001 7,408 BF Method 7,408 35,218 99.6% (373) (1,256) (1,629) (4.6%)

2011 / 2 15,009 9,398 10,630 11,502 - BF Method 10,630 44,020 117.3% 17,355 11,941 13,359 BF Method 13,359 47,029 125.3% (281) (2,729) (3,010) (8.0%)

2012 / 1 12,746 15,482 14,611 14,114 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 14,114 47,245 118.4% 17,859 18,511 18,267 ELR & LR Wtd Method 18,185 48,997 122.8% 2,319 (4,071) (1,752) (4.4%)




2014 / 1 37,416 31,133 35,433 37,416 - ELR Method 37,416 51,771 129.0% 43,708 35,720 41,774 ELR Method 43,708 55,120 136.0% 2,943 (6,292) (3,349) (7.0%)

2014 / 2 28,148 32,779 158.0%

Total 163,809 164,865 166,300 172,682 - 198,736 1,021,708 201,699 188,296 195,454 201,492 1,010,787 9,046 (30,904) (21,858)

2013 / 2 & Prior 126,393 133,732 130,866 135,265 - 133,172 937,157 157,991 152,576 153,680 157,784 955,667 6,103 (24,612) (18,509)


**Current accident half-year IBNR and Ultimate Loss estimates derived from the CAHY Selections exhibit


Exhibit B.2.4b-1





Coverage: Property Damage

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 - 14,107 - 14,107 14,107 14,107 14,107 14,107

1994 / 1 - 13,519 (0) 13,519 13,519 - 100.0% 13,519 13,519 13,519

1994 / 2 - 8,774 0 8,774 8,774 - 100.0% 8,774 8,774 8,774

1995 / 1 - 2,240 0 2,240 2,240 - 100.0% 2,240 2,240 2,240

1995 / 2 - 728 (0) 728 728 - 100.0% 728 728 728

1996 / 1 - 608 (0) 608 608 - 100.0% 608 608 608

1996 / 2 - 511 0 511 511 - 100.0% 511 511 511

1997 / 1 - 411 (0) 411 411 - 100.0% 411 411 411

1997 / 2 - 403 0 403 403 - 100.0% 403 403 403

1998 / 1 - 447 (0) 447 447 - 100.0% 447 447 447

1998 / 2 - 253 - 253 253 - 100.0% 253 253 253

1999 / 1 - 263 (0) 263 263 - 100.0% 263 263 263

1999 / 2 - 286 - 286 286 - 100.0% 286 286 286

2000 / 1 - 289 0 289 289 - 100.0% 289 289 289

2000 / 2 - 412 - 412 412 - 100.0% 412 412 412

2001 / 1 - 314 (0) 314 314 - 100.0% 314 314 314

2001 / 2 - 321 (0) 321 321 - 100.0% 321 321 321

2002 / 1 - 433 (0) 433 433 - 100.0% 433 433 433

2002 / 2 0 430 0 430 430 - 100.0% 430 430 430

2003 / 1 0 351 (0) 351 351 - 100.0% 351 351 351

2003 / 2 - 431 (0) 431 431 - 100.0% 431 431 431

2004 / 1 - 371 (0) 371 371 - 100.0% 371 371 371

2004 / 2 (0) 342 0 342 342 - 100.0% 342 342 342

2005 / 1 (0) 377 4 382 382 - 100.0% 382 382 382

2005 / 2 (0) 524 3 527 527 - 100.0% 527 527 527

2006 / 1 (0) 398 (0) 398 398 - 100.0% 398 398 398

2006 / 2 (1) 703 4 708 708 - 100.0% 708 708 708

2007 / 1 (2) 677 2 679 679 - 100.0% 679 679 679

2007 / 2 (3) 767 4 772 772 - 100.0% 772 772 772

2008 / 1 (3) 641 0 641 641 - 100.0% 641 641 641

2008 / 2 0 811 0 811 811 - 100.0% 811 811 811

2009 / 1 377 687 4 691 691 - 100.0% 691 691 691

2009 / 2 1,197 792 0 792 706 792 - 100.0% 792 - 100.0% 792 792 59.0% 66.1% 66.1% 66.1% 66.1% 792 66.1%

2010 / 1 1,630 1,033 0 1,033 978 1,033 - 100.0% 1,033 - 100.0% 1,033 1,033 60.0% 63.4% 63.4% 63.4% 63.4% 1,033 63.4%

2010 / 2 1,804 997 80 1,077 1,064 1,077 - 100.0% 1,077 12.5% 87.5% 1,075 1,077 59.0% 59.7% 59.7% 59.6% 59.7% 1,077 59.7%

2011 / 1 1,600 770 1 770 928 770 - 100.0% 770 25.0% 75.0% 810 770 58.0% 48.2% 48.2% 50.6% 48.2% 770 48.2%

2011 / 2 1,580 782 8 790 901 790 - 100.0% 790 37.5% 62.5% 831 790 57.0% 50.0% 50.0% 52.6% 50.0% 790 50.0%

2012 / 1 1,676 893 1 894 939 894 - 100.0% 894 50.0% 50.0% 916 894 56.0% 53.3% 53.3% 54.7% 53.3% 916 54.6%

2012 / 2 1,785 803 19 821 999 831 1.2% 98.8% 833 62.5% 37.5% 936 821 56.0% 46.6% 46.7% 52.5% 46.0% 936 52.5%

2013 / 1 1,942 662 25 687 1,107 723 5.1% 94.9% 743 75.0% 25.0% 1,011 687 57.0% 37.3% 38.2% 52.1% 35.4% 1,011 52.0%

2013 / 2 2,031 837 72 908 1,157 1,064 14.6% 85.4% 1,078 87.5% 12.5% 1,146 908 57.0% 52.4% 53.1% 56.4% 44.7% 1,145 56.4%

2014 / 1 1,854 372 186 557 1,057 802 30.5% 69.5% 879 100.0% - 1,057 557 57.0% 43.2% 47.4% 57.0% 30.0% 1,057 57.0%

2014 / 2 942 11 229 239 1,114 790 69.7% 30.3% 1,016 - - - 239 58.0% 41.2% 52.9% - - 546 58.0%

Total 18,410 59,781 641 60,422 10,951 61,419 9,904 61,460 60,422 61,927




Exhibit B.2.4b-2





Coverage: Property Damage

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

User Defined

1 IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 14,107 - - 14,107 - - -




1995 / 2 - - - Link Ratio Method - 728 - Link Ratio Method - 728 - - -




























2009 / 2 (85) - - - - Link Ratio Method - 792 66.1% (109) - - Link Ratio Method - 792 66.1% - - - -

2010 / 1 (55) - - - - Link Ratio Method - 1,033 63.4% (90) - - Link Ratio Method - 1,035 63.5% (2) - (2) (0.1%)

2010 / 2 (12) - - (2) - Link Ratio Method - 1,077 59.7% 28 - - Link Ratio Method - 1,000 55.4% 77 - 77 4.3%

2011 / 1 158 - - 39 - Link Ratio Method - 770 48.2% 122 - - Link Ratio Method - 774 48.4% (4) - (4) (0.2%)

2011 / 2 111 - - 41 - Link Ratio Method - 790 50.0% 80 - - Link Ratio Method - 789 49.9% 1 - 1 0.1%

2012 / 1 45 (0) (0) 22 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 22 916 54.6% 11 (0) (0) ELR & LR Wtd Method 6 900 53.7% - 16 16 0.9%

2012 / 2 178 10 12 115 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 115 936 52.5% 168 19 22 ELR & LR Wtd Method 112 908 50.9% 26 3 29 1.6%

2013 / 1 420 37 56 324 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 324 1,011 52.0% 403 54 82 ELR & LR Wtd Method 316 962 49.5% 41 8 49 2.5%

2013 / 2 249 156 170 237 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 237 1,145 56.4% 305 217 236 ELR & LR Wtd Method 294 1,086 53.4% 117 (57) 60 3.0%

2014 / 1 500 244 322 500 - ELR Method 500 1,057 57.0% 575 296 406 ELR Method 575 1,030 55.0% 102 (75) 27 2.0%

2014 / 2 307 546 58.0%

Total 1,508 446 559 1,278 - 1,505 61,927 1,494 587 746 1,303 61,127 358 (105) 253

2013 / 2 & Prior 1,008 202 237 778 - 698 60,323 919 290 340 728 60,097 256 (30) 226




Exhibit B.2.4c-1





Coverage: Direct Comp Property Damage

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 - - - - - - - -

1994 / 1 - - - - - - 100.0% - - -

1994 / 2 - 5,445 (0) 5,445 5,445 - 100.0% 5,445 5,445 5,445

1995 / 1 - 11,021 (0) 11,021 11,021 - 100.0% 11,021 11,021 11,021

1995 / 2 - 12,949 (0) 12,949 12,949 - 100.0% 12,949 12,949 12,949

1996 / 1 - 10,613 0 10,614 10,614 - 100.0% 10,614 10,614 10,614

1996 / 2 - 9,741 (0) 9,741 9,741 - 100.0% 9,741 9,741 9,741

1997 / 1 - 9,114 (0) 9,114 9,114 - 100.0% 9,114 9,114 9,114

1997 / 2 - 8,075 1 8,075 8,075 - 100.0% 8,075 8,075 8,075

1998 / 1 - 6,529 (0) 6,529 6,529 - 100.0% 6,529 6,529 6,529

1998 / 2 - 5,681 0 5,682 5,682 - 100.0% 5,682 5,682 5,682

1999 / 1 - 4,569 (0) 4,569 4,569 - 100.0% 4,569 4,569 4,569

1999 / 2 - 5,427 1 5,428 5,428 - 100.0% 5,428 5,428 5,428

2000 / 1 - 5,095 0 5,095 5,095 - 100.0% 5,095 5,095 5,095

2000 / 2 - 5,854 0 5,854 5,854 - 100.0% 5,854 5,854 5,854

2001 / 1 - 5,514 0 5,514 5,514 - 100.0% 5,514 5,514 5,514

2001 / 2 - 7,122 0 7,122 7,122 - 100.0% 7,122 7,122 7,122

2002 / 1 - 7,701 (0) 7,701 7,701 - 100.0% 7,701 7,701 7,701

2002 / 2 0 8,765 3 8,768 8,768 - 100.0% 8,768 8,768 8,768

2003 / 1 0 8,340 0 8,340 8,340 - 100.0% 8,340 8,340 8,340

2003 / 2 - 7,777 9 7,785 7,785 - 100.0% 7,785 7,785 7,785

2004 / 1 - 7,513 9 7,522 7,522 - 100.0% 7,522 7,522 7,522

2004 / 2 (0) 8,380 13 8,393 8,393 - 100.0% 8,393 8,393 8,393

2005 / 1 (0) 7,286 18 7,303 7,303 - 100.0% 7,303 7,303 7,303

2005 / 2 (0) 8,274 31 8,304 8,304 - 100.0% 8,304 8,304 8,304

2006 / 1 (1) 7,131 40 7,171 7,171 - 100.0% 7,171 7,171 7,171

2006 / 2 (10) 10,124 42 10,166 10,166 - 100.0% 10,166 10,166 10,166

2007 / 1 (46) 10,148 14 10,163 10,163 - 100.0% 10,163 10,163 10,163

2007 / 2 (64) 10,691 55 10,746 10,746 - 100.0% 10,746 10,746 10,746

2008 / 1 (44) 12,533 3 12,537 12,537 - 100.0% 12,537 12,537 12,537

2008 / 2 51 13,849 4 13,853 13,853 - 100.0% 13,853 13,853 13,853

2009 / 1 5,086 12,900 20 12,921 12,921 - 100.0% 12,921 12,921 12,921

2009 / 2 15,364 14,199 236 14,435 11,831 14,435 - 100.0% 14,435 - 100.0% 14,435 14,435 77.0% 93.9% 93.9% 93.9% 93.9% 14,435 93.9%

2010 / 1 20,753 15,895 32 15,927 15,149 15,927 - 100.0% 15,927 - 100.0% 15,927 15,927 73.0% 76.7% 76.7% 76.7% 76.7% 15,927 76.7%

2010 / 2 22,795 17,997 67 18,064 17,324 18,064 - 100.0% 18,064 12.5% 87.5% 17,972 18,064 76.0% 79.2% 79.2% 78.8% 79.2% 18,064 79.2%

2011 / 1 21,162 14,458 30 14,487 15,025 14,487 - 100.0% 14,487 25.0% 75.0% 14,622 14,487 71.0% 68.5% 68.5% 69.1% 68.5% 14,487 68.5%

2011 / 2 20,581 14,762 19 14,781 15,847 14,781 - 100.0% 14,781 37.5% 62.5% 15,181 14,781 77.0% 71.8% 71.8% 73.8% 71.8% 14,781 71.8%

2012 / 1 21,098 13,883 35 13,918 15,402 13,919 - 100.0% 13,919 50.0% 50.0% 14,661 13,918 73.0% 66.0% 66.0% 69.5% 66.0% 13,918 66.0%

2012 / 2 21,580 16,039 86 16,125 16,832 16,125 - 100.0% 16,125 62.5% 37.5% 16,567 16,125 78.0% 74.7% 74.7% 76.8% 74.7% 16,125 74.7%

2013 / 1 21,340 15,460 132 15,592 15,578 15,581 (0.1%) 100.1% 15,581 75.0% 25.0% 15,579 15,592 73.0% 73.0% 73.0% 73.0% 73.1% 15,592 73.1%

2013 / 2 21,575 18,296 102 18,398 16,613 18,398 - 100.0% 18,398 87.5% 12.5% 16,836 18,398 77.0% 85.3% 85.3% 78.0% 85.3% 18,398 85.3%

2014 / 1 20,134 15,437 416 15,854 14,698 16,466 3.7% 96.3% 16,400 100.0% - 14,698 15,854 73.0% 81.8% 81.5% 73.0% 78.7% 16,401 81.5%

2014 / 2 9,998 4,762 2,494 7,256 16,098 15,664 53.7% 46.3% 15,897 - - - 7,256 79.0% 76.9% 78.0% - - 7,898 79.0%

Total 221,353 415,352 3,912 419,263 170,397 428,274 174,016 410,902 419,263 420,452




Exhibit B.2.4c-2





Coverage: Direct Comp Property Damage

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

User Defined

1 IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - - - - - - - -

1994 / 1 - - - Link Ratio Method - - - Link Ratio Method - - - - -



























2007 / 2 - - - Link Ratio Method - 10,746 - Link Ratio Method - 10,741 5 - 5




2009 / 2 (2,604) - - - - Link Ratio Method - 14,435 93.9% (2,604) - - Link Ratio Method - 14,435 94.0% - - - (0.1%)

2010 / 1 (778) - - - - Link Ratio Method - 15,927 76.7% (781) - - Link Ratio Method - 15,930 76.8% (3) - (3) (0.1%)

2010 / 2 (740) - - (92) - Link Ratio Method - 18,064 79.2% (740) - - Link Ratio Method - 18,064 79.2% - - - -

2011 / 1 538 - - 134 - Link Ratio Method - 14,487 68.5% 535 - - Link Ratio Method - 14,491 68.5% (3) - (3) -

2011 / 2 1,066 - - 400 - Link Ratio Method - 14,781 71.8% 857 - - Link Ratio Method - 14,784 71.8% (3) - (3) -

2012 / 1 1,484 1 2 743 - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 13,918 66.0% 1,488 4 5 Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 13,915 65.9% 3 - 3 0.1%

2012 / 2 707 (0) (0) 442 - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 16,125 74.7% 690 (3) (3) Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 16,142 74.8% (17) - (17) (0.1%)

2013 / 1 (14) (11) (11) (13) - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 15,592 73.1% (21) (17) (17) Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 15,598 73.1% (6) - (6) -

2013 / 2 (1,785) (0) (0) (1,562) - BF Method - 18,398 85.3% (1,747) 20 18 BF Method 18 18,384 85.2% 32 (18) 14 0.1%

2014 / 1 (1,156) 613 547 (1,156) - BF Method 547 16,401 81.5% (579) 1,223 1,091 BF Method 1,091 16,517 81.2% 428 (544) (116) 0.3%

2014 / 2 642 7,898 79.0%

Total (3,282) 603 537 (1,105) - 1,189 420,452 (2,902) 1,227 1,093 1,109 412,677 439 (562) (123)

2013 / 2 & Prior (2,126) (10) (9) 51 - - 396,153 (2,323) 4 2 18 396,160 11 (18) (7)




Exhibit B.3.1



Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: Accident Benefits

RSP: Ontario

Life to Date

Accident YearEarned

Premium






Claims Expense


Claims Expense


[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14]


2009 & prior 872,095 1,135,249 130.2% 58,862 6.7% 1,194,111 136.9% 36,569 4.2% 1,230,680 141.1% 95,431 10.9%

2010 115,164 215,002 186.7% 37,740 32.8% 252,742 219.5% 16,372 14.2% 269,114 233.7% 54,112 47.0%

2011 115,834 63,009 54.4% 38,550 33.3% 101,559 87.7% 23,200 20.0% 124,759 107.7% 61,750 53.3%

2012 129,017 44,364 34.4% 55,502 43.0% 99,866 77.4% 39,644 30.7% 139,510 108.1% 95,146 73.7%

2013 123,945 31,084 25.1% 50,054 40.4% 81,138 65.5% 65,352 52.7% 146,490 118.2% 115,406 93.1%

2014 77,599 5,283 6.8% 29,996 38.7% 35,279 45.5% 63,162 81.4% 98,441 126.9% 93,158 120.1%

TOTAL 1,433,654 1,493,991 104.2% 270,704 18.9% 1,764,695 123.1% 244,299 17.0% 2,008,994 140.1% 515,003 35.9%

2013 & prior 1,356,055 1,488,708 109.8% 240,708 17.8% 1,729,416 127.5% 181,137 13.4% 1,910,553 140.9% 421,845 31.1%


Accident YearEarned

Premium (LTD)










[15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28]


2009 & prior 872,095 5,818 0.7% (2,399) (0.3%) 3,419 0.4% (894) (0.1%) 2,525 0.3% (3,293) (0.4%)

2010 115,164 2,736 2.4% (3,277) (2.8%) (541) (0.5%) (972) (0.8%) (1,513) (1.3%) (4,249) (3.7%)

2011 115,834 4,294 3.7% (1,270) (1.1%) 3,024 2.6% (1,621) (1.4%) 1,403 1.2% (2,891) (2.5%)

2012 129,017 4,065 3.2% 265 0.2% 4,330 3.4% (3,835) (3.0%) 495 0.4% (3,570) (2.8%)

2013 123,945 6,255 5.0% (2,130) (1.7%) 4,125 3.3% (4,140) (3.3%) (15) - (6,270) (5.1%)

TOTAL 1,356,055 23,168 1.7% (8,811) (0.6%) 14,357 1.1% (11,462) (0.8%) 2,895 0.2% (20,273) (1.5%)



Unpaid








[29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37]


2009 & prior 37,463 98,724 5,818 5.9% 3,419 9.1% 2,525 2.6%

2010 17,344 58,361 2,736 4.7% (541) (3.1%) (1,513) (2.6%)

2011 24,821 64,641 4,294 6.6% 3,024 12.2% 1,403 2.2%

2012 43,479 98,716 4,065 4.1% 4,330 10.0% 495 0.5%

2013 69,492 121,676 6,255 5.1% 4,125 5.9% (15) -

TOTAL 192,599 442,118 23,168 5.2% 14,357 7.5% 2,895 0.7%



Exhibit B.3.2



Amounts in: $1,000s


RSP: Ontario






[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16]


1993 25,327 38,986 85 39,071 - 39,071 154.3% 154.3% 154.3% 154.3% 154.3% - - - -

1994 62,264 95,166 5,338 100,504 - 100,504 161.4% 160.7% 160.3% 160.2% 158.6% 0.7% 464 2.8% 1,743

1995 84,997 103,994 3,172 107,166 - 107,166 126.1% 126.1% 127.4% 127.4% 127.5% - (28) (1.4%) (1,190)

1996 78,201 71,726 2,900 74,626 - 74,626 95.4% 95.4% 95.4% 95.3% 95.3% - 18 0.1% 78

1997 56,830 38,498 (2) 38,496 149 38,645 68.0% 68.0% 68.2% 68.2% 68.5% - (22) (0.5%) (284)

1998 34,874 28,110 801 28,911 244 29,155 83.6% 83.7% 83.8% 83.8% 84.2% (0.1%) (28) (0.6%) (209)

1999 22,095 29,702 1,017 30,719 391 31,110 140.8% 140.3% 140.6% 140.8% 141.8% 0.5% 102 (1.0%) (221)

2000 21,883 31,846 83 31,929 507 32,436 148.2% 148.4% 148.7% 148.9% 150.1% (0.2%) (38) (1.9%) (416)

2001 24,684 41,308 682 41,990 909 42,899 173.8% 173.8% 174.3% 174.3% 176.0% - 8 (2.2%) (543)

2002 35,582 52,251 1,311 53,562 1,417 54,979 154.5% 154.8% 154.9% 155.0% 154.8% (0.3%) (90) (0.3%) (107)

2003 46,841 50,423 992 51,415 1,632 53,047 113.2% 113.4% 113.3% 113.5% 114.6% (0.2%) (68) (1.4%) (656)

2004 57,005 49,917 1,581 51,498 2,044 53,542 93.9% 94.2% 94.4% 95.1% 94.4% (0.3%) (160) (0.5%) (285)

2005 53,507 44,838 1,139 45,977 2,057 48,034 89.8% 89.8% 90.1% 90.0% 90.4% - (30) (0.6%) (321)

2006 54,961 65,967 6,712 72,679 3,571 76,250 138.7% 138.8% 138.4% 138.8% 138.8% (0.1%) (30) (0.1%) (55)

2007 59,159 71,549 4,468 76,017 3,846 79,863 135.0% 133.2% 133.6% 134.3% 134.7% 1.8% 1,052 0.3% 177

2008 72,990 126,894 11,264 138,158 7,640 145,798 199.8% 200.4% 197.6% 197.3% 199.8% (0.6%) (497) - -

2009 80,895 194,074 17,319 211,393 12,162 223,555 276.4% 274.0% 269.2% 269.5% 269.6% 2.4% 1,872 6.8% 5,501

2010 115,164 215,002 37,740 252,742 16,372 269,114 233.7% 235.0% 235.5% 236.8% 235.5% (1.3%) (1,513) (1.8%) (2,073)

2011 115,834 63,009 38,550 101,559 23,200 124,759 107.7% 106.5% 112.3% 118.0% 121.2% 1.2% 1,403 (13.5%) (15,638)

2012 129,017 44,364 55,502 99,866 39,644 139,510 108.1% 107.8% 106.2% 106.3% 107.5% 0.3% 495 0.6% 774

2013 123,945 31,084 50,054 81,138 65,352 146,490 118.2% 118.2% 115.4% 114.7% 127.5% - (15) (9.3%) (11,527)

2014 77,599 5,283 29,996 35,279 63,162 98,441 126.9% 121.5% 131.0% - - - - **

TOTAL 1,433,654 1,493,991 270,704 1,764,695 244,299 2,008,994 140.1% 140.0% 140.3% 141.1% 143.1% 2,895 (25,252)

2013 & prior 1,356,055 1,488,708 240,708 1,729,416 181,137 1,910,553 140.9% 140.7% 140.5% 141.1% 143.1% 2,895 (25,252)





Exhibit B.3.3

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 1 198.0% 196.0% 2.0%

2003 / 2 124.0% 124.0% -

2004 / 1 109.0% 108.0% 1.0%

2004 / 2 130.0% 129.0% 1.0%

2005 / 1 129.0% 128.0% 1.0%

2005 / 2 160.0% 160.0% -

2006 / 1 158.0% 157.0% 1.0%

2006 / 2 192.0% 191.0% 1.0%

2007 / 1 187.0% 186.0% 1.0%

2007 / 2 228.0% 227.0% 1.0%

2008 / 1 221.0% 221.0% -

2008 / 2 262.0% 260.0% 2.0%

2009 / 1 242.0% 241.0% 1.0%

2009 / 2 271.0% 269.0% 2.0%

2010 / 1 235.0% 234.0% 1.0%

2010 / 2 129.0% 128.0% 1.0%

2011 / 1 114.0% 113.0% 1.0% Selected Model Loss Ratio Residuals Plot2011 / 2 127.0% 127.0% -

2012 / 1 113.0% 111.0% 2.0%

2012 / 2 125.0% 125.0% -

2013 / 1 114.0% 113.0% 1.0%

2013 / 2 133.0% 133.0% -

2014 / 1 122.0% 121.0% 1.0%

2014 / 2 137.0% 137.0% -

2015 / 1 124.0% 124.0% -

2015 / 2 139.0% 138.0% 1.0%

2016 / 1 126.0% 125.0% 1.0%

2016 / 2 141.0% 140.0% 1.0%



Accident

Period

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 1 21,501 29,864 936 31,862 148.2% 1.5202 1.0000 1.0000 32,686 1.0655 1.0000 1.0000 33,519 102.5% -

2003 / 2 25,340 20,558 57 21,253 83.9% 1.3031 1.0000 1.0000 33,020 1.4710 1.0000 1.0000 30,736 93.1% -

2004 / 1 28,254 20,663 1,383 22,958 81.3% 1.1928 1.0000 1.0000 33,701 1.5293 1.0000 1.0000 34,662 102.9% -

2004 / 2 28,750 28,898 574 30,745 106.9% 1.1926 1.0000 1.0000 34,288 1.2814 1.0000 1.0000 38,987 113.7% -

2005 / 1 27,379 19,574 330 20,753 75.8% 1.2397 1.0000 1.0000 33,942 1.3543 1.0000 1.0000 27,654 81.5% -

2005 / 2 26,127 25,231 834 27,311 104.5% 1.2889 1.0000 1.0000 33,674 1.1159 1.0000 1.0000 29,858 88.7% -

2006 / 1 26,051 23,776 1,647 26,639 102.3% 1.3176 1.0000 1.0000 34,325 1.1707 1.0000 1.0000 30,724 89.5% -

2006 / 2 28,911 41,925 5,266 49,641 171.7% 1.3422 1.0000 1.0000 38,805 0.9749 1.0000 1.0000 47,580 122.6% -

2007 / 1 29,310 32,967 1,473 36,140 123.3% 1.3621 1.0000 1.0000 39,923 1.0451 1.0000 1.0000 36,996 92.7% -

2007 / 2 29,849 38,471 2,083 42,671 143.0% 1.3799 1.0000 1.0000 41,190 0.8568 1.0000 1.0000 35,689 86.6% -

2008 / 1 36,056 57,903 4,987 66,443 184.3% 1.3827 1.0000 1.0000 49,856 0.8692 1.0000 1.0000 57,034 114.4% 8.3%

2008 / 2 36,933 67,882 7,523 79,852 216.2% 1.3630 1.0000 1.0000 50,340 0.7359 1.0000 1.0000 57,863 114.9% 8.3%

2009 / 1 38,048 85,108 5,741 95,840 251.9% 1.3094 1.0000 1.0000 49,821 0.7621 1.0000 1.0000 72,280 145.1% 8.3%

2009 / 2 42,847 105,300 13,378 125,844 293.7% 1.2231 1.0000 1.0000 52,405 0.6296 1.0000 1.0000 78,368 149.5% 8.3%

2010 / 1 52,330 135,603 15,993 160,894 307.5% 1.0982 1.0000 1.0000 57,468 0.6487 1.0000 1.0000 103,245 179.7% 8.3%

2010 / 2 62,835 76,663 25,024 109,733 174.6% 0.9885 1.0000 1.0000 62,113 1.0655 1.0000 1.0000 115,849 186.5% 8.3%

2011 / 1 57,281 32,472 22,371 61,469 107.3% 0.9747 1.0000 1.0000 55,833 1.1852 1.0000 1.0000 72,031 129.0% 8.3%

2011 / 2 58,554 26,244 17,449 61,888 105.7% 0.9679 1.0000 1.0000 56,676 1.0554 1.0000 1.0000 64,482 113.8% 8.3%

2012 / 1 64,074 20,532 24,292 62,803 98.0% 0.9449 1.0000 1.0000 60,542 1.1717 1.0000 1.0000 72,645 120.0% 8.3%

2012 / 2 64,940 19,766 30,945 76,211 117.4% 0.9400 1.0000 1.0000 61,047 1.0404 1.0000 1.0000 78,349 128.3% 8.3%

2013 / 1 63,854 15,181 24,187 68,816 107.8% 0.9475 1.0000 1.0000 60,500 1.1545 1.0000 1.0000 78,461 129.7% 8.3%

2013 / 2 60,113 9,648 27,998 77,689 129.2% 0.9844 1.0000 1.0000 59,177 1.0284 1.0000 1.0000 78,788 133.1% 8.3%

Total 909,337 934,229 234,471 1,357,454 149.3% 1.1342 1.0000 1.0000 1,031,332 0.9523 1.0000 1.0000 1,275,800 123.7% 100.0%



-

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

300.0%

350.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1

RSP: Ontario - Accident Benefits



(120.0%) (100.0%)

(80.0%) (60.0%) (40.0%) (20.0%)

- 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0%

100.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1



Exhibit B.3.3f

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: AccBen (indivis)

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 1 199.0% 198.0% 1.0%

2003 / 2 122.0% 122.0% -

2004 / 1 108.0% 107.0% 1.0%

2004 / 2 129.0% 128.0% 1.0%

2005 / 1 129.0% 128.0% 1.0%

2005 / 2 160.0% 160.0% -

2006 / 1 158.0% 158.0% -

2006 / 2 193.0% 192.0% 1.0%

2007 / 1 189.0% 188.0% 1.0%

2007 / 2 230.0% 229.0% 1.0%

2008 / 1 222.0% 222.0% -

2008 / 2 263.0% 262.0% 1.0%

2009 / 1 244.0% 243.0% 1.0%

2009 / 2 273.0% 272.0% 1.0%

2010 / 1 237.0% 236.0% 1.0%

2010 / 2 127.0% 126.0% 1.0%

2011 / 1 113.0% 112.0% 1.0% Selected Model Loss Ratio Residuals Plot2011 / 2 125.0% 125.0% -

2012 / 1 111.0% 110.0% 1.0%

2012 / 2 123.0% 123.0% -

2013 / 1 112.0% 112.0% -

2013 / 2 131.0% 131.0% -

2014 / 1 120.0% 120.0% -

2014 / 2 135.0% 135.0% -

2015 / 1 122.0% 122.0% -

2015 / 2 137.0% 136.0% 1.0%

2016 / 1 124.0% 123.0% 1.0%

2016 / 2 139.0% 138.0% 1.0%



Accident

Period

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 1 20,700 29,177 909 31,151 150.5% 1.5223 1.0000 1.0000 31,512 1.0331 1.0000 1.0000 32,182 102.1% -

2003 / 2 24,440 19,311 57 20,014 81.9% 1.3025 1.0000 1.0000 31,833 1.4370 1.0000 1.0000 28,760 90.3% -

2004 / 1 27,285 19,643 1,357 21,923 80.3% 1.1907 1.0000 1.0000 32,488 1.4924 1.0000 1.0000 32,718 100.7% -

2004 / 2 27,771 27,240 569 29,100 104.8% 1.1902 1.0000 1.0000 33,053 1.2496 1.0000 1.0000 36,363 110.0% -

2005 / 1 26,436 18,285 330 19,480 73.7% 1.2377 1.0000 1.0000 32,720 1.2968 1.0000 1.0000 25,262 77.2% -

2005 / 2 25,221 24,821 773 26,848 106.5% 1.2871 1.0000 1.0000 32,462 1.0846 1.0000 1.0000 29,119 89.7% -

2006 / 1 25,137 23,151 1,241 25,626 101.9% 1.3164 1.0000 1.0000 33,090 1.1247 1.0000 1.0000 28,821 87.1% -

2006 / 2 27,878 40,539 5,194 48,219 173.0% 1.3420 1.0000 1.0000 37,412 0.9397 1.0000 1.0000 45,311 121.1% -

2007 / 1 28,235 31,030 1,356 34,153 121.0% 1.3633 1.0000 1.0000 38,493 0.9739 1.0000 1.0000 33,261 86.4% -

2007 / 2 28,719 37,391 1,824 41,391 144.1% 1.3827 1.0000 1.0000 39,710 0.8129 1.0000 1.0000 33,647 84.7% -

2008 / 1 34,662 56,266 4,498 64,439 185.9% 1.3866 1.0000 1.0000 48,062 0.8420 1.0000 1.0000 54,257 112.9% 8.3%

2008 / 2 35,492 65,375 5,910 75,952 214.0% 1.3673 1.0000 1.0000 48,528 0.7022 1.0000 1.0000 53,333 109.9% 8.3%

2009 / 1 36,577 81,959 4,468 91,670 250.6% 1.3131 1.0000 1.0000 48,029 0.7270 1.0000 1.0000 66,644 138.8% 8.3%

2009 / 2 41,231 103,494 10,850 121,778 295.4% 1.2253 1.0000 1.0000 50,520 0.6057 1.0000 1.0000 73,761 146.0% 8.3%

2010 / 1 50,575 133,864 14,048 157,450 311.3% 1.0988 1.0000 1.0000 55,572 0.6269 1.0000 1.0000 98,706 177.6% 8.3%

2010 / 2 60,856 75,411 22,098 105,790 173.8% 0.9881 1.0000 1.0000 60,132 1.0539 1.0000 1.0000 111,493 185.4% 8.3%

2011 / 1 55,483 31,773 20,655 59,010 106.4% 0.9743 1.0000 1.0000 54,057 1.1671 1.0000 1.0000 68,871 127.4% 8.3%

2011 / 2 56,802 25,857 16,271 59,668 105.0% 0.9669 1.0000 1.0000 54,922 1.0406 1.0000 1.0000 62,090 113.1% 8.3%

2012 / 1 62,245 20,136 22,198 59,902 96.2% 0.9433 1.0000 1.0000 58,716 1.1520 1.0000 1.0000 69,007 117.5% 8.3%

2012 / 2 63,073 19,599 29,809 73,199 116.1% 0.9385 1.0000 1.0000 59,194 1.0271 1.0000 1.0000 75,183 127.0% 8.3%

2013 / 1 61,985 15,000 23,389 66,064 106.6% 0.9462 1.0000 1.0000 58,650 1.1367 1.0000 1.0000 75,095 128.0% 8.3%

2013 / 2 58,281 9,509 26,596 74,080 127.1% 0.9840 1.0000 1.0000 57,349 1.0136 1.0000 1.0000 75,088 130.9% 8.3%

Total 879,084 908,830 214,400 1,306,908 148.7% 1.1336 1.0000 1.0000 996,504 0.9251 1.0000 1.0000 1,208,972 121.3% 100.0%



-

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

300.0%

350.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1

RSP: Ontario - AccBen (indivis)



(120.0%) (100.0%)

(80.0%) (60.0%) (40.0%) (20.0%)

- 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0%

100.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1



Exhibit B.3.3g

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: UA

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 1 162.0% 156.0% 6.0%

2003 / 2 172.0% 165.0% 7.0%

2004 / 1 139.0% 133.0% 6.0%

2004 / 2 164.0% 158.0% 6.0%

2005 / 1 143.0% 138.0% 5.0%

2005 / 2 174.0% 167.0% 7.0%

2006 / 1 150.0% 143.0% 7.0%

2006 / 2 176.0% 169.0% 7.0%

2007 / 1 147.0% 141.0% 6.0%

2007 / 2 171.0% 164.0% 7.0%

2008 / 1 193.0% 185.0% 8.0%

2008 / 2 225.0% 216.0% 9.0%

2009 / 1 187.0% 180.0% 7.0%

2009 / 2 214.0% 205.0% 9.0%

2010 / 1 170.0% 163.0% 7.0%

2010 / 2 188.0% 181.0% 7.0%


2012 / 1 166.0% 159.0% 7.0%

2012 / 2 196.0% 188.0% 8.0%

2013 / 1 168.0% 161.0% 7.0%

2013 / 2 202.0% 194.0% 8.0%

2014 / 1 174.0% 167.0% 7.0%

2014 / 2 208.0% 199.0% 9.0%

2015 / 1 179.0% 171.0% 8.0%

2015 / 2 213.0% 205.0% 8.0%

2016 / 1 183.0% 176.0% 7.0%

2016 / 2 219.0% 210.0% 9.0%



Accident

Period

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 1 801 687 27 711 88.8% 1.4660 1.0000 1.0000 1,174 1.8793 1.0000 1.0000 1,337 113.9% -

2003 / 2 900 1,247 (0) 1,239 137.7% 1.3190 1.0000 1.0000 1,187 1.5952 1.0000 1.0000 1,976 166.5% -

2004 / 1 969 1,021 27 1,034 106.7% 1.2516 1.0000 1.0000 1,213 1.8793 1.0000 1.0000 1,944 160.3% -

2004 / 2 979 1,657 5 1,645 168.0% 1.2613 1.0000 1.0000 1,235 1.5952 1.0000 1.0000 2,624 212.5% -

2005 / 1 943 1,290 0 1,273 135.0% 1.2963 1.0000 1.0000 1,222 1.8793 1.0000 1.0000 2,392 195.7% -

2005 / 2 906 411 61 463 51.1% 1.3379 1.0000 1.0000 1,212 1.5952 1.0000 1.0000 739 61.0% -

2006 / 1 914 626 406 1,013 110.8% 1.3508 1.0000 1.0000 1,235 1.8793 1.0000 1.0000 1,903 154.1% -

2006 / 2 1,033 1,386 73 1,422 137.7% 1.3489 1.0000 1.0000 1,393 1.5952 1.0000 1.0000 2,269 162.9% -

2007 / 1 1,075 1,937 118 1,988 184.9% 1.3306 1.0000 1.0000 1,430 1.8793 1.0000 1.0000 3,735 261.2% -

2007 / 2 1,130 1,080 260 1,280 113.3% 1.3093 1.0000 1.0000 1,480 1.5952 1.0000 1.0000 2,042 138.0% -

2008 / 1 1,394 1,637 489 2,004 143.8% 1.2869 1.0000 1.0000 1,794 1.3858 1.0000 1.0000 2,777 154.8% 8.3%

2008 / 2 1,441 2,508 1,613 3,900 270.7% 1.2572 1.0000 1.0000 1,812 1.1613 1.0000 1.0000 4,530 250.0% 8.3%

2009 / 1 1,471 3,149 1,273 4,169 283.4% 1.2181 1.0000 1.0000 1,792 1.3518 1.0000 1.0000 5,636 314.5% 8.3%

2009 / 2 1,616 1,806 2,528 4,066 251.6% 1.1667 1.0000 1.0000 1,885 1.1331 1.0000 1.0000 4,607 244.4% 8.3%

2010 / 1 1,755 1,738 1,945 3,443 196.2% 1.0805 1.0000 1.0000 1,896 1.3182 1.0000 1.0000 4,539 239.4% 8.3%

2010 / 2 1,979 1,252 2,926 3,943 199.2% 1.0010 1.0000 1.0000 1,981 1.1047 1.0000 1.0000 4,356 219.9% 8.3%

2011 / 1 1,798 699 1,716 2,458 136.7% 0.9879 1.0000 1.0000 1,776 1.2852 1.0000 1.0000 3,160 177.9% 8.3%

2011 / 2 1,752 387 1,178 2,220 126.7% 1.0010 1.0000 1.0000 1,754 1.0776 1.0000 1.0000 2,392 136.4% 8.3%

2012 / 1 1,829 396 2,094 2,901 158.6% 0.9985 1.0000 1.0000 1,826 1.2539 1.0000 1.0000 3,638 199.2% 8.3%

2012 / 2 1,867 167 1,136 3,012 161.3% 0.9924 1.0000 1.0000 1,853 1.0512 1.0000 1.0000 3,166 170.9% 8.3%

2013 / 1 1,869 182 798 2,752 147.3% 0.9899 1.0000 1.0000 1,850 1.2230 1.0000 1.0000 3,366 181.9% 8.3%

2013 / 2 1,832 139 1,401 3,609 197.0% 0.9980 1.0000 1.0000 1,828 1.0253 1.0000 1.0000 3,700 202.4% 8.3%

Total 30,253 25,399 20,071 50,546 167.1% 1.1513 1.0000 1.0000 34,828 1.3221 1.0000 1.0000 66,828 191.9% 100.0%



(20.0%)

30.0%

80.0%

130.0%

180.0%

230.0%

280.0%

330.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1

RSP: Ontario - Uninsured Automobile



(150.0%)

(100.0%)

(50.0%)

-

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1



Exhibit B.3.4-1






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]

=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 25,327 38,986 85 39,071 39,071 39,071 39,071 39,071

1994 62,264 95,166 5,338 100,504 100,504 100,504 100,504 161.4% 161.4% 161.4% 100,504 161.4%

1995 84,997 103,994 3,172 107,166 107,166 107,166 107,166 126.1% 126.1% 126.1% 107,166 126.1%

1996 78,201 71,726 2,900 74,626 74,626 74,626 74,626 95.4% 95.4% 95.4% 74,626 95.4%

1997 56,830 38,498 (2) 38,496 38,645 38,645 38,496 68.0% 68.0% 67.7% 38,645 68.0%

1998 34,874 28,110 802 28,911 29,155 29,155 28,911 83.6% 83.6% 82.9% 29,155 83.6%

1999 22,095 29,702 1,017 30,719 31,110 31,110 30,719 140.8% 140.8% 139.0% 31,110 140.8%

2000 21,883 31,846 83 31,929 32,437 32,437 31,929 148.2% 148.2% 145.9% 32,436 148.2%

2001 24,684 41,308 681 41,990 42,899 42,899 41,990 173.8% 173.8% 170.1% 42,899 173.8%

2002 35,582 52,251 1,311 53,562 54,978 54,978 53,562 154.5% 154.5% 150.5% 54,979 154.5%

2003 46,841 50,423 993 51,415 53,047 53,047 51,415 113.2% 113.2% 109.8% 53,047 113.2%

2004 57,005 49,917 1,580 51,498 53,542 53,542 51,498 93.9% 93.9% 90.3% 53,542 93.9%

2005 53,507 44,838 1,138 45,977 48,034 48,034 45,977 89.8% 89.8% 85.9% 48,034 89.8%

2006 54,961 65,967 6,712 72,679 76,250 76,250 72,679 138.7% 138.7% 132.2% 76,250 138.7%

2007 59,159 71,549 4,467 76,017 79,862 79,862 76,017 135.0% 135.0% 128.5% 79,863 135.0%

2008 72,990 126,894 11,265 138,158 145,799 145,799 138,158 199.8% 199.8% 189.3% 145,798 199.8%

2009 80,895 194,074 17,318 211,393 223,554 223,554 211,393 276.4% 276.4% 261.3% 223,555 276.4%

2010 115,164 215,002 37,740 252,742 203,852 269,114 6.3% 93.7% 264,986 265,739 252,742 177.0% 233.7% 230.1% 230.7% 219.5% 269,114 233.7%

2011 115,834 63,009 38,550 101,559 139,956 112,251 9.9% 90.1% 115,003 122,078 101,559 120.8% 96.9% 99.3% 105.4% 87.7% 124,759 107.7%

2012 129,017 44,364 55,502 99,866 153,371 122,408 17.9% 82.1% 127,952 139,511 99,866 118.9% 94.9% 99.2% 108.1% 77.4% 139,510 108.1%

2013 123,945 31,084 50,054 81,138 152,581 120,262 32.3% 67.7% 130,694 146,490 81,138 123.1% 97.0% 105.4% 118.2% 65.5% 146,490 118.2%

2014 77,599 5,283 29,996 35,279 134,391 90,266 73.5% 26.5% 122,701 63,812 35,279 98,441 126.9%

Total 1,433,654 1,493,991 270,703 1,764,694 784,152 1,944,983 761,337 1,968,311 1,764,694 2,008,993




Exhibit B.3.4-2






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



MethodBF Method*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

ELR Method*LR Ratio


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 39,071 39,071 39,071 - 39,071 39,071 - 39,071 - - -

1994 100,504 100,504 100,504 N/A - 100,504 161.4% 100,040 N/A - 100,040 160.7% 464 - 464 0.7%

1995 107,166 107,166 107,166 N/A - 107,166 126.1% 107,194 N/A - 107,194 126.1% (28) - (28) -

1996 74,626 74,626 74,626 N/A - 74,626 95.4% 74,608 N/A - 74,608 95.4% 18 - 18 -

1997 38,645 38,645 38,496 N/A 149 38,645 68.0% 38,666 N/A 168 38,667 68.0% (3) (19) (22) -

1998 29,155 29,155 28,911 N/A 244 29,155 83.6% 29,183 N/A 272 29,183 83.7% - (28) (28) (0.1%)

1999 31,110 31,110 30,719 N/A 391 31,110 140.8% 31,009 N/A 415 31,008 140.3% 126 (24) 102 0.5%

2000 32,437 32,437 31,929 N/A 507 32,436 148.2% 32,475 N/A 545 32,474 148.4% - (38) (38) (0.2%)

2001 42,899 42,899 41,990 N/A 909 42,899 173.8% 42,891 N/A 925 42,891 173.8% 24 (16) 8 -

2002 54,978 54,978 53,562 N/A 1,417 54,979 154.5% 55,069 N/A 1,521 55,069 154.8% 14 (104) (90) (0.3%)

2003 53,047 53,047 51,415 N/A 1,632 53,047 113.2% 53,116 N/A 1,700 53,115 113.4% - (68) (68) (0.2%)

2004 53,542 53,542 51,498 N/A 2,044 53,542 93.9% 53,701 N/A 2,184 53,702 94.2% (21) (140) (161) (0.3%)

2005 48,034 48,034 45,977 N/A 2,057 48,034 89.8% 48,064 N/A 2,094 48,064 89.8% 7 (37) (30) -

2006 76,250 76,250 72,679 N/A 3,571 76,250 138.7% 76,280 N/A 3,665 76,280 138.8% 64 (94) (30) (0.1%)

2007 79,862 79,862 76,017 N/A 3,846 79,863 135.0% 78,811 N/A 3,817 78,811 133.2% 1,022 29 1,051 1.8%

2008 145,799 145,799 138,158 N/A 7,640 145,798 199.8% 146,295 N/A 8,000 146,295 200.4% (137) (360) (497) (0.6%)

2009 223,554 223,554 211,393 N/A 12,162 223,555 276.4% 221,684 N/A 12,157 221,683 274.0% 1,866 5 1,871 2.4%

2010 203,852 269,114 264,986 265,739 252,742 N/A 16,372 269,114 233.7% 202,477 270,626 266,102 N/A 17,344 270,627 235.0% (541) (972) (1,513) (1.3%)

2011 139,956 112,251 115,003 122,078 101,559 N/A 23,200 124,759 107.7% 139,136 110,269 113,612 N/A 24,821 123,356 106.5% 3,024 (1,621) 1,403 1.2%

2012 153,371 122,408 127,952 139,511 99,866 N/A 39,644 139,510 108.1% 152,467 122,310 128,774 N/A 43,479 139,015 107.8% 4,330 (3,835) 495 0.3%

2013 152,581 120,262 130,694 146,490 81,138 N/A 65,352 146,490 118.2% 152,335 120,156 131,523 N/A 69,492 146,505 118.2% 4,124 (4,140) (16) -

2014 134,391 90,266 122,701 63,812 35,279 N/A 63,162 98,441 126.9% 64,355 53,377 59,918 N/A 42,416 64,355 121.5% 13,340 20,746 34,086 5.4%

Total 784,152 1,944,983 761,337 1,968,311 1,764,694 244,299 2,008,993 710,770 1,904,897 699,929 235,015 1,972,014 27,693 9,284 36,977

2013 & Prior 649,761 1,854,716 638,636 1,904,499 1,729,415 181,137 1,910,552 646,415 1,851,520 640,011 192,599 1,907,659 14,353 (11,462) 2,891




Exhibit B.3.4g-1






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 25,327 38,945 65 39,010 39,010 39,010 39,010 39,010

1994 / 1 25,506 42,928 429 43,357 43,357 - 100.0% 43,357 43,357 43,357

1994 / 2 36,758 34,625 4,296 38,921 38,921 - 100.0% 38,921 38,921 38,921

1995 / 1 41,493 8,932 446 9,378 9,378 - 100.0% 9,378 9,378 9,378

1995 / 2 43,505 - - - - - 100.0% - - -

1996 / 1 40,719 - - - - - 100.0% - - -

1996 / 2 37,482 - - - - - 100.0% - - -

1997 / 1 31,432 4,487 (0) 4,486 4,505 - 100.0% 4,505 4,486 4,505

1997 / 2 25,398 18,353 (1) 18,352 18,483 - 100.0% 18,483 18,352 18,482

1998 / 1 20,243 13,231 726 13,957 14,073 - 100.0% 14,073 13,957 14,073

1998 / 2 14,631 13,749 (1) 13,749 13,877 - 100.0% 13,877 13,749 13,877

1999 / 1 11,416 14,800 1,014 15,814 16,015 - 100.0% 16,015 15,814 16,015

1999 / 2 10,679 13,985 3 13,988 14,178 - 100.0% 14,178 13,988 14,178

2000 / 1 10,710 16,831 84 16,915 17,180 - 100.0% 17,180 16,915 17,179

2000 / 2 11,173 14,393 (0) 14,392 14,636 - 100.0% 14,636 14,392 14,635

2001 / 1 11,254 13,856 311 14,166 14,468 - 100.0% 14,468 14,166 14,467

2001 / 2 13,430 26,568 371 26,938 27,546 - 100.0% 27,546 26,938 27,546

2002 / 1 16,530 25,164 415 25,579 26,226 - 100.0% 26,226 25,579 26,226

2002 / 2 19,052 25,827 896 26,724 27,494 - 100.0% 27,494 26,724 27,494

2003 / 1 21,501 29,177 909 30,086 31,063 - 100.0% 31,063 30,086 31,063

2003 / 2 25,340 19,311 57 19,368 20,030 - 100.0% 20,030 19,368 20,030

2004 / 1 28,254 19,955 1,024 20,979 21,788 - 100.0% 21,788 20,979 21,788

2004 / 2 28,750 27,285 525 27,809 29,073 - 100.0% 29,073 27,809 29,073

2005 / 1 27,379 18,285 330 18,615 19,475 - 100.0% 19,475 18,615 19,475

2005 / 2 26,127 24,851 750 25,601 26,821 - 100.0% 26,821 25,601 26,821

2006 / 1 26,051 23,175 1,235 24,410 25,619 - 100.0% 25,619 24,410 25,619

2006 / 2 28,911 40,781 4,998 45,779 48,190 - 100.0% 48,190 45,779 48,190

2007 / 1 29,312 31,043 2,243 33,286 35,084 - 100.0% 35,084 33,286 35,084

2007 / 2 29,851 37,489 1,790 39,279 41,440 - 100.0% 41,440 39,279 41,439

2008 / 1 36,058 56,739 4,069 60,809 64,319 - 100.0% 64,319 60,809 64,319

2008 / 2 36,930 65,897 5,214 71,111 75,579 - 100.0% 75,579 71,111 75,579

2009 / 1 37,643 82,985 3,319 86,305 91,720 - 100.0% 91,720 86,305 91,720

2009 / 2 41,585 105,843 10,471 116,314 113,526 123,563 5.9% 94.1% 122,974 - 100.0% 123,563 116,314 273.0% 297.1% 295.7% 297.1% 279.7% 123,563 297.1%

2010 / 1 50,575 134,434 13,726 148,160 119,862 157,700 6.0% 94.0% 155,411 - 100.0% 157,700 148,160 237.0% 311.8% 307.3% 311.8% 293.0% 157,700 311.8%

2010 / 2 60,856 77,327 19,414 96,741 77,287 104,060 7.0% 93.0% 102,177 12.5% 87.5% 100,714 96,741 127.0% 171.0% 167.9% 165.5% 159.0% 104,061 171.0%

2011 / 1 55,483 34,716 18,799 53,514 62,696 58,714 8.9% 91.1% 59,067 25.0% 75.0% 59,709 53,514 113.0% 105.8% 106.5% 107.6% 96.5% 59,709 107.6%

2011 / 2 56,801 26,991 16,975 43,966 71,001 49,553 11.3% 88.7% 51,972 37.5% 62.5% 57,596 43,966 60,277 125.0% 87.2% 91.5% 101.4% 77.4% 106.1% 60,277 106.1%

2012 / 1 62,244 21,973 21,381 43,354 69,090 51,125 15.2% 84.8% 53,855 50.0% 50.0% 60,108 43,354 111.0% 82.1% 86.5% 96.6% 69.7% 60,107 96.6%

2012 / 2 63,077 21,769 30,282 52,051 77,585 65,938 21.1% 78.9% 68,391 62.5% 37.5% 73,218 52,051 123.0% 104.5% 108.4% 116.1% 82.5% 73,218 116.1%

2013 / 1 61,991 18,169 20,798 38,967 69,429 54,335 28.3% 71.7% 58,604 75.0% 25.0% 65,656 38,967 112.0% 87.7% 94.5% 105.9% 62.9% 65,656 105.9%

2013 / 2 58,254 12,561 27,103 39,664 76,313 60,670 34.6% 65.4% 66,086 87.5% 12.5% 74,357 39,664 131.0% 104.1% 113.4% 127.6% 68.1% 74,357 127.6%

2014 / 1 50,708 4,916 22,201 27,117 60,850 52,316 48.2% 51.8% 56,426 100.0% - 60,850 27,117 120.0% 103.2% 111.3% 120.0% 53.5% 60,849 120.0%

2014 / 2 24,332 198 7,255 7,453 66,947 35,332 78.9% 21.1% 60,279 - - - 7,453 135.0% 71.2% 121.6% - - 32,848 135.0%

Total 1,414,749 1,262,544 243,921 1,506,465 864,587 1,682,854 855,243 1,703,016 1,506,465 1,741,889




Exhibit B.3.4f-2






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

User Defined

1 IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 39,010 - - 39,010 - - -












1999 / 2 190 190 - Link Ratio Method 190 14,178 188 Link Ratio Method 188 14,176 - 2 2







2003 / 1 977 977 - Link Ratio Method 977 31,063 1,065 Link Ratio Method 1,065 31,151 - (88) (88)



2004 / 2 1,264 1,264 - Link Ratio Method 1,264 29,073 1,290 Link Ratio Method 1,290 29,100 - (26) (26)


2005 / 2 1,220 1,220 - Link Ratio Method 1,220 26,821 1,254 Link Ratio Method 1,254 26,848 7 (34) (27)



2007 / 1 1,798 1,798 - Link Ratio Method 1,798 35,084 1,767 Link Ratio Method 1,767 34,153 901 31 932

2007 / 2 2,160 2,160 - Link Ratio Method 2,160 41,439 2,177 Link Ratio Method 2,177 41,391 65 (17) 48


2008 / 2 4,468 4,468 - Link Ratio Method 4,468 75,579 4,667 Link Ratio Method 4,667 75,952 (174) (199) (373)

2009 / 1 5,415 5,415 - Link Ratio Method 5,415 91,720 5,243 Link Ratio Method 5,243 91,670 (123) 172 49

2009 / 2 (2,788) 7,249 6,660 7,249 - Link Ratio Method 7,249 123,563 297.1% (1,233) 7,434 6,905 Link Ratio Method 7,434 121,778 292.8% 1,970 (185) 1,785 4.3%

2010 / 1 (28,297) 9,540 7,251 9,540 - Link Ratio Method 9,540 157,700 311.8% (28,556) 9,538 7,230 Link Ratio Method 9,538 157,450 311.3% 247 2 249 0.5%

2010 / 2 (19,454) 7,320 5,436 3,973 - Link Ratio Method 7,320 104,061 171.0% (20,831) 8,281 6,002 Link Ratio Method 8,281 105,790 173.8% (769) (961) (1,730) (2.8%)

2011 / 1 9,181 5,200 5,552 6,195 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 6,195 59,709 107.6% 9,713 5,539 5,938 ELR & LR Wtd Method 6,582 59,010 106.4% 1,086 (387) 699 1.2%

2011 / 2 27,035 5,587 8,006 13,630 - 16,311 User Defined 2 16,311 60,277 106.1% 28,874 6,207 9,117 User Defined 2 17,540 59,668 105.0% 1,838 (1,229) 609 1.1%

2012 / 1 25,736 7,771 10,501 16,753 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 16,753 60,107 96.6% 26,135 9,001 12,005 ELR & LR Wtd Method 17,568 59,902 96.2% 1,020 (815) 205 0.4%

2012 / 2 25,534 13,887 16,340 21,167 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 21,167 73,218 116.1% 28,171 16,490 19,413 ELR & LR Wtd Method 23,791 73,199 116.1% 2,642 (2,624) 18 -

2013 / 1 30,462 15,368 19,637 26,689 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 26,689 65,656 105.9% 31,035 17,594 21,818 ELR & LR Wtd Method 27,675 66,064 106.6% 579 (986) (407) (0.7%)

2013 / 2 36,649 21,007 26,422 34,693 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 34,693 74,357 127.6% 40,243 22,097 28,987 ELR & LR Wtd Method 37,975 74,080 127.1% 3,559 (3,282) 277 0.5%

2014 / 1 33,732 25,199 29,309 33,732 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 33,732 60,849 120.0% 40,005 29,835 35,748 ELR & LR Wtd Method 40,005 61,484 120.0% 5,638 (6,273) (635) -

2014 / 2 25,395 32,848 135.0%

Total 137,791 148,510 135,116 204,004 - 235,424 1,741,889 153,556 163,156 153,164 227,528 1,707,337 19,202 (17,499) 1,703

2013 / 2 & Prior 104,059 123,311 105,807 170,272 - 176,297 1,648,192 113,551 133,321 117,416 187,523 1,645,853 13,564 (11,226) 2,338




Exhibit B.3.4g-1





Coverage: Uninsured Automobile

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 - 41 20 61 61 61 61 61

1994 / 1 - - - - - - 100.0% - - -

1994 / 2 - 17,613 613 18,226 18,226 - 100.0% 18,226 18,226 18,226

1995 / 1 - 40,876 77 40,953 40,953 - 100.0% 40,953 40,953 40,953

1995 / 2 - 54,187 2,649 56,835 56,835 - 100.0% 56,835 56,835 56,835

1996 / 1 - 34,439 (1) 34,437 34,437 - 100.0% 34,437 34,437 34,437

1996 / 2 - 37,287 2,901 40,188 40,188 - 100.0% 40,188 40,188 40,188

1997 / 1 - 11,824 (1) 11,824 11,824 - 100.0% 11,824 11,824 11,824

1997 / 2 - 3,834 (0) 3,834 3,834 - 100.0% 3,834 3,834 3,834

1998 / 1 - 629 77 705 705 - 100.0% 705 705 705

1998 / 2 - 500 0 500 500 - 100.0% 500 500 500

1999 / 1 - 484 (0) 484 484 - 100.0% 484 484 484

1999 / 2 - 432 0 432 432 - 100.0% 432 432 432

2000 / 1 - 180 (0) 180 180 - 100.0% 180 180 180

2000 / 2 - 441 0 441 441 - 100.0% 441 441 441

2001 / 1 - 428 - 428 428 - 100.0% 428 428 428

2001 / 2 - 457 (0) 457 457 - 100.0% 457 457 457

2002 / 1 - 866 (0) 866 866 - 100.0% 866 866 866

2002 / 2 0 393 (0) 393 393 - 100.0% 393 393 393

2003 / 1 0 687 27 714 713 - 100.0% 713 714 713

2003 / 2 - 1,247 (0) 1,247 1,241 - 100.0% 1,241 1,247 1,241

2004 / 1 - 1,021 27 1,047 1,037 - 100.0% 1,037 1,047 1,037

2004 / 2 (0) 1,657 5 1,662 1,643 - 100.0% 1,643 1,662 1,643

2005 / 1 (0) 1,290 0 1,290 1,274 - 100.0% 1,274 1,290 1,274

2005 / 2 (0) 412 59 471 464 - 100.0% 464 471 464

2006 / 1 (0) 626 406 1,032 1,014 - 100.0% 1,014 1,032 1,014

2006 / 2 (0) 1,386 73 1,459 1,427 - 100.0% 1,427 1,459 1,428

2007 / 1 (2) 1,936 174 2,111 2,050 - 100.0% 2,050 2,111 2,051

2007 / 2 (2) 1,081 260 1,340 1,288 - 100.0% 1,288 1,340 1,288

2008 / 1 (2) 1,645 469 2,115 2,006 - 100.0% 2,006 2,115 2,006

2008 / 2 3 2,612 1,512 4,124 3,895 - 100.0% 3,895 4,124 3,895

2009 / 1 405 3,318 1,356 4,674 4,416 - 100.0% 4,416 4,674 4,416

2009 / 2 1,262 1,927 2,172 4,099 2,701 3,855 (6.3%) 106.3% 3,928 - 100.0% 3,855 4,099 214.0% 305.4% 311.2% 305.4% 324.8% 3,855 305.4%

2010 / 1 1,755 1,837 1,803 3,640 2,983 3,408 (6.8%) 106.8% 3,437 - 100.0% 3,408 3,640 170.0% 194.2% 195.8% 194.2% 207.4% 3,408 194.2%

2010 / 2 1,979 1,404 2,798 4,202 3,720 3,946 (6.5%) 106.5% 3,961 12.5% 87.5% 3,918 4,202 188.0% 199.4% 200.2% 198.0% 212.4% 3,946 199.4%

2011 / 1 1,798 847 1,611 2,458 2,877 2,360 (4.1%) 104.1% 2,339 25.0% 75.0% 2,489 2,458 160.0% 131.2% 130.0% 138.4% 136.7% 2,490 138.4%

2011 / 2 1,752 455 1,166 1,621 3,382 1,624 0.2% 99.8% 1,626 37.5% 62.5% 2,283 1,621 193.0% 92.7% 92.8% 130.3% 92.5% 2,283 130.3%

2012 / 1 1,829 445 2,311 2,757 3,036 3,006 8.3% 91.7% 3,008 50.0% 50.0% 3,021 2,757 166.0% 164.4% 164.5% 165.2% 150.7% 3,021 165.2%

2012 / 2 1,867 177 1,528 1,705 3,660 2,339 27.1% 72.9% 2,697 62.5% 37.5% 3,165 1,705 196.0% 125.3% 144.5% 169.5% 91.3% 3,165 169.5%

2013 / 1 1,869 181 815 996 3,140 1,826 45.4% 54.6% 2,423 75.0% 25.0% 2,812 996 168.0% 97.7% 129.6% 150.4% 53.3% 2,811 150.4%

2013 / 2 1,831 173 1,338 1,510 3,699 3,431 56.0% 44.0% 3,581 87.5% 12.5% 3,666 1,510 202.0% 187.4% 195.6% 200.2% 82.5% 3,665 200.2%

2014 / 1 1,702 154 503 658 2,962 2,160 69.6% 30.4% 2,718 100.0% - 2,962 658 174.0% 126.9% 159.7% 174.0% 38.6% 2,962 174.0%

2014 / 2 857 15 36 51 3,632 458 88.9% 11.1% 3,279 - - - 51 208.0% 26.2% 187.8% - - 1,782 208.0%

Total 18,904 231,447 26,782 258,229 35,793 262,129 32,997 265,294 258,229 267,104




Exhibit B.3.4g-2





Coverage: Uninsured Automobile

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

User Defined

1 IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 61 - - 61 - - -



















2003 / 1 (1) (1) - Link Ratio Method (1) 713 (3) Link Ratio Method (3) 711 - 2 2

2003 / 2 (6) (6) - Link Ratio Method (6) 1,241 (8) Link Ratio Method (8) 1,239 - 2 2


2004 / 2 (19) (19) - Link Ratio Method (19) 1,643 (17) Link Ratio Method (17) 1,645 - (2) (2)





2007 / 1 (60) (60) - Link Ratio Method (60) 2,051 (67) Link Ratio Method (67) 1,988 56 7 63


2008 / 1 (109) (109) - Link Ratio Method (109) 2,006 (122) Link Ratio Method (122) 2,004 (11) 13 2

2008 / 2 (229) (229) - Link Ratio Method (229) 3,895 (220) Link Ratio Method (220) 3,900 3 (9) (6)

2009 / 1 (258) (258) - Link Ratio Method (258) 4,416 (252) Link Ratio Method (252) 4,169 253 (6) 247

2009 / 2 (1,398) (244) (171) (244) - Link Ratio Method (244) 3,855 305.4% (1,746) (268) (170) Link Ratio Method (268) 4,066 322.1% (234) 24 (210) (16.7%)

2010 / 1 (656) (232) (203) (232) - Link Ratio Method (232) 3,408 194.2% (823) (240) (200) Link Ratio Method (240) 3,443 196.2% (43) 8 (35) (2.0%)

2010 / 2 (482) (256) (241) (284) - Link Ratio Method (256) 3,946 199.4% (597) (235) (214) Link Ratio Method (235) 3,943 199.3% 24 (21) 3 0.1%

2011 / 1 420 (98) (119) 32 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 32 2,490 138.4% 337 (54) (63) ELR & LR Wtd Method 44 2,458 136.7% 43 (12) 31 1.7%

2011 / 2 1,761 3 5 662 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 662 2,283 130.3% 1,677 42 85 ELR & LR Wtd Method 655 2,220 126.7% 56 7 63 3.6%

2012 / 1 279 249 252 264 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 264 3,021 165.2% 418 405 407 ELR & LR Wtd Method 411 2,901 158.6% 266 (147) 119 6.6%

2012 / 2 1,955 635 993 1,460 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 1,460 3,165 169.5% 2,207 879 1,414 ELR & LR Wtd Method 1,709 3,012 161.3% 402 (249) 153 8.2%

2013 / 1 2,144 829 1,426 1,815 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 1,815 2,811 150.4% 2,030 1,003 1,522 ELR & LR Wtd Method 1,773 2,752 147.3% 17 42 59 3.1%

2013 / 2 2,189 1,921 2,071 2,155 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 2,155 3,665 200.2% 2,014 2,449 2,182 ELR & LR Wtd Method 2,069 3,609 197.0% (30) 86 56 3.2%

2014 / 1 2,304 1,502 2,060 2,304 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 2,304 2,962 174.0% 2,411 1,604 2,231 ELR & LR Wtd Method 2,411 2,870 167.0% 198 (107) 91 7.0%

2014 / 2 1,731 1,782 208.0%

Total 8,515 3,493 6,073 7,116 - 8,875 267,104 7,930 4,742 7,194 7,487 264,676 986 (343) 643

2013 / 2 & Prior 6,211 1,991 4,013 4,812 - 4,840 262,360 5,518 3,139 4,963 5,076 261,806 788 (236) 552




Exhibit B.4.1



Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: Other Coverages

RSP: Ontario

Life to Date

Accident YearEarned

Premium






Claims Expense


Claims Expense


[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14]


2009 & prior 667,378 565,258 84.7% 1,243 0.2% 566,501 84.9% (29) - 566,472 84.9% 1,214 0.2%

2010 52,950 45,178 85.3% 956 1.8% 46,134 87.1% (18) - 46,116 87.1% 938 1.8%

2011 46,452 41,272 88.8% 1,717 3.7% 42,989 92.5% 19 - 43,008 92.6% 1,736 3.7%

2012 46,022 40,989 89.1% 1,703 3.7% 42,692 92.8% 187 0.4% 42,879 93.2% 1,890 4.1%

2013 44,751 46,209 103.3% 1,102 2.5% 47,311 105.7% 652 1.5% 47,963 107.2% 1,754 3.9%

2014 31,341 30,149 96.2% 4,388 14.0% 34,537 110.2% 1,178 3.8% 35,715 114.0% 5,566 17.8%

TOTAL 888,894 769,055 86.5% 11,109 1.2% 780,164 87.8% 1,989 0.2% 782,153 88.0% 13,098 1.5%

2013 & prior 857,553 738,906 86.2% 6,721 0.8% 745,627 86.9% 811 0.1% 746,438 87.0% 7,532 0.9%


Accident YearEarned

Premium (LTD)










[15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28]


2009 & prior 667,378 119 - (146) - (27) - 1 - (26) - (145) -

2010 52,950 22 - (153) (0.3%) (131) (0.2%) (1) - (132) (0.2%) (154) (0.3%)

2011 46,452 (23) - (51) (0.1%) (74) (0.2%) (2) - (76) (0.2%) (53) (0.1%)

2012 46,022 24 0.1% (17) - 7 - (86) (0.2%) (79) (0.2%) (103) (0.2%)

2013 44,751 339 0.8% (166) (0.4%) 173 0.4% 19 - 192 0.4% (147) (0.3%)

TOTAL 857,553 481 0.1% (533) (0.1%) (52) - (69) - (121) - (602) (0.1%)



Unpaid








[29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37]


2009 & prior (30) 1,359 119 8.8% (27) 90.0% (26) (1.9%)

2010 (17) 1,092 22 2.0% (131) 770.6% (132) (12.1%)

2011 21 1,789 (23) (1.3%) (74) (352.4%) (76) (4.2%)

2012 273 1,993 24 1.2% 7 2.6% (79) (4.0%)

2013 633 1,901 339 17.8% 173 27.3% 192 10.1%

TOTAL 880 8,134 481 5.9% (52) (5.9%) (121) (1.5%)



Exhibit B.4.2



Amounts in: $1,000s


RSP: Ontario






[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16]


1993 23,911 31,668 - 31,668 - 31,668 132.4% 132.4% 132.4% 132.4% 132.4% - - - -

1994 54,937 56,909 - 56,909 - 56,909 103.6% 103.6% 103.6% 103.6% 103.6% - - - -

1995 64,357 55,351 - 55,351 - 55,351 86.0% 86.0% 86.0% 86.0% 86.0% - (1) - -

1996 54,603 44,131 - 44,131 - 44,131 80.8% 80.8% 80.8% 80.8% 80.8% - - - -

1997 42,917 33,072 5 33,077 - 33,077 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% - - - -

1998 30,222 23,388 12 23,400 - 23,400 77.4% 77.4% 77.4% 77.4% 77.4% - - - -

1999 20,100 18,099 2 18,101 - 18,101 90.1% 90.1% 90.1% 90.1% 90.1% - - - -

2000 20,106 21,498 - 21,498 - 21,498 106.9% 106.9% 106.9% 106.9% 106.9% - - - -

2001 23,724 22,306 - 22,306 - 22,306 94.0% 94.0% 94.0% 94.0% 94.0% - - - -

2002 33,552 30,176 - 30,176 - 30,176 89.9% 89.9% 89.9% 89.9% 89.9% - - - -

2003 40,126 30,726 - 30,726 (1) 30,725 76.6% 76.6% 76.6% 76.6% 76.6% - 1 - -

2004 42,358 25,711 30 25,741 1 25,742 60.8% 60.8% 60.8% 60.8% 60.8% - (3) - -

2005 38,642 26,223 42 26,265 11 26,276 68.0% 68.0% 68.0% 68.0% 67.9% - (2) 0.1% 39

2006 39,128 28,049 103 28,152 (3) 28,149 71.9% 71.9% 71.9% 71.9% 71.9% - 2 - -

2007 43,387 35,542 115 35,657 (15) 35,642 82.1% 82.2% 82.2% 82.2% 81.7% (0.1%) (27) 0.4% 174

2008 47,738 42,050 519 42,569 (12) 42,557 89.1% 89.2% 89.3% 89.3% 89.3% (0.1%) (25) (0.2%) (95)

2009 47,570 40,359 415 40,774 (10) 40,764 85.7% 85.6% 85.5% 85.4% 85.4% 0.1% 29 0.3% 143

2010 52,950 45,178 956 46,134 (18) 46,116 87.1% 87.3% 87.5% 87.6% 87.3% (0.2%) (132) (0.2%) (106)

2011 46,452 41,272 1,717 42,989 19 43,008 92.6% 92.7% 91.6% 91.4% 91.3% (0.1%) (76) 1.3% 604

2012 46,022 40,989 1,703 42,692 187 42,879 93.2% 93.3% 92.7% 92.3% 92.3% (0.1%) (79) 0.9% 414

2013 44,751 46,209 1,102 47,311 652 47,963 107.2% 106.7% 102.7% 102.3% 95.4% 0.5% 192 11.8% 5,281

2014 31,341 30,149 4,388 34,537 1,178 35,715 114.0% 113.8% 92.0% - - - - **

TOTAL 888,894 769,055 11,109 780,164 1,989 782,153 88.0% 87.7% 86.8% 86.7% 86.2% (121) 6,454

2013 & prior 857,553 738,906 6,721 745,627 811 746,438 87.0% 87.1% 86.8% 86.7% 86.2% (121) 6,454





Exhibit B.4.3

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 1 93.0% 91.0% 2.0%

2003 / 2 82.0% 81.0% 1.0%

2004 / 1 68.0% 66.0% 2.0%

2004 / 2 75.0% 74.0% 1.0%

2005 / 1 74.0% 73.0% 1.0%

2005 / 2 84.0% 85.0% (1.0%)

2006 / 1 81.0% 81.0% -

2006 / 2 87.0% 88.0% (1.0%)

2007 / 1 83.0% 83.0% -

2007 / 2 89.0% 90.0% (1.0%)

2008 / 1 85.0% 85.0% -

2008 / 2 90.0% 90.0% -

2009 / 1 85.0% 86.0% (1.0%)

2009 / 2 89.0% 88.0% 1.0%

2010 / 1 86.0% 85.0% 1.0%

2010 / 2 94.0% 92.0% 2.0%


2012 / 1 94.0% 93.0% 1.0%

2012 / 2 101.0% 101.0% -

2013 / 1 96.0% 94.0% 2.0%

2013 / 2 101.0% 101.0% -

2014 / 1 95.0% 95.0% -

2014 / 2 101.0% 101.0% -

2015 / 1 96.0% 96.0% -

2015 / 2 102.0% 102.0% -

2016 / 1 96.0% 97.0% (1.0%)

2016 / 2 103.0% 103.0% -



Accident

Period

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 1 19,283 15,377 0 15,377 79.7% 0.7780 1.0000 1.0000 15,002 0.8447 1.0000 1.0000 12,990 86.6% -

2003 / 2 20,841 15,350 0 15,348 73.6% 0.7431 1.0000 1.0000 15,487 0.9398 1.0000 1.0000 14,424 93.1% -

2004 / 1 21,255 12,276 27 12,303 57.9% 0.7254 1.0000 1.0000 15,419 1.0930 1.0000 1.0000 13,448 87.2% -

2004 / 2 21,103 13,435 4 13,442 63.7% 0.7490 1.0000 1.0000 15,805 1.0141 1.0000 1.0000 13,631 86.2% -

2005 / 1 20,018 12,281 14 12,303 61.5% 0.7827 1.0000 1.0000 15,669 1.0894 1.0000 1.0000 13,403 85.5% -

2005 / 2 18,624 13,941 28 13,975 75.0% 0.8107 1.0000 1.0000 15,099 0.9696 1.0000 1.0000 13,550 89.7% -

2006 / 1 18,244 11,278 25 11,303 62.0% 0.8292 1.0000 1.0000 15,128 1.0200 1.0000 1.0000 11,529 76.2% -

2006 / 2 20,884 16,771 78 16,844 80.7% 0.8447 1.0000 1.0000 17,642 0.9701 1.0000 1.0000 16,342 92.6% -

2007 / 1 21,592 17,392 56 17,442 80.8% 0.8536 1.0000 1.0000 18,431 1.0371 1.0000 1.0000 18,088 98.1% -

2007 / 2 21,797 18,155 80 18,226 83.6% 0.8668 1.0000 1.0000 18,894 0.9817 1.0000 1.0000 17,892 94.7% -

2008 / 1 23,634 20,523 35 20,557 87.0% 0.8673 1.0000 1.0000 20,498 1.0165 1.0000 1.0000 20,895 101.9% 8.3%

2008 / 2 24,104 21,519 521 22,025 91.4% 0.8661 1.0000 1.0000 20,876 0.9730 1.0000 1.0000 21,429 102.6% 8.3%

2009 / 1 23,650 19,243 201 19,440 82.2% 0.8708 1.0000 1.0000 20,594 1.0326 1.0000 1.0000 20,075 97.5% 8.3%

2009 / 2 23,919 20,998 299 21,295 89.0% 0.8894 1.0000 1.0000 21,273 1.0115 1.0000 1.0000 21,539 101.3% 8.3%

2010 / 1 25,891 21,346 577 21,909 84.6% 0.9257 1.0000 1.0000 23,968 1.1019 1.0000 1.0000 24,141 100.7% 8.3%

2010 / 2 27,059 23,810 533 24,339 89.9% 0.9479 1.0000 1.0000 25,648 1.0256 1.0000 1.0000 24,963 97.3% 8.3%

2011 / 1 23,873 20,468 866 21,346 89.4% 0.9606 1.0000 1.0000 22,933 1.0926 1.0000 1.0000 23,322 101.7% 8.3%

2011 / 2 22,580 20,827 903 21,739 96.3% 0.9884 1.0000 1.0000 22,319 1.0199 1.0000 1.0000 22,171 99.3% 8.3%

2012 / 1 23,076 18,966 1,393 20,409 88.4% 1.0032 1.0000 1.0000 23,149 1.0948 1.0000 1.0000 22,344 96.5% 8.3%

2012 / 2 22,946 21,998 327 22,549 98.3% 1.0167 1.0000 1.0000 23,329 1.0136 1.0000 1.0000 22,856 98.0% 8.3%

2013 / 1 22,430 20,859 391 21,540 96.0% 1.0177 1.0000 1.0000 22,827 1.0699 1.0000 1.0000 23,046 101.0% 8.3%

2013 / 2 22,328 25,010 877 26,231 117.5% 1.0091 1.0000 1.0000 22,531 1.0058 1.0000 1.0000 26,384 117.1% 8.3%

Total 489,131 401,825 7,235 409,940 83.8% 0.8843 1.0000 1.0000 432,521 1.0208 1.0000 1.0000 418,462 96.7% 100.0%



(5.0%)

10.0%

25.0%

40.0%

55.0%

70.0%

85.0%

100.0%

115.0%

130.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1

RSP: Ontario - Other Coverages



(25.0%)

(20.0%)

(15.0%)

(10.0%)

(5.0%)

-

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1



Exhibit B.4.3a

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: UM

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 1 43.0% 40.0% 3.0%

2003 / 2 43.0% 40.0% 3.0%

2004 / 1 40.0% 38.0% 2.0%

2004 / 2 59.0% 55.0% 4.0%

2005 / 1 43.0% 40.0% 3.0%

2005 / 2 62.0% 57.0% 5.0%

2006 / 1 44.0% 41.0% 3.0%

2006 / 2 63.0% 58.0% 5.0%

2007 / 1 45.0% 41.0% 4.0%

2007 / 2 63.0% 59.0% 4.0%

2008 / 1 45.0% 41.0% 4.0%

2008 / 2 63.0% 58.0% 5.0%

2009 / 1 44.0% 41.0% 3.0%

2009 / 2 62.0% 57.0% 5.0%

2010 / 1 43.0% 40.0% 3.0%

2010 / 2 66.0% 61.0% 5.0%


2012 / 1 46.0% 43.0% 3.0%

2012 / 2 65.0% 61.0% 4.0%

2013 / 1 46.0% 43.0% 3.0%

2013 / 2 64.0% 60.0% 4.0%

2014 / 1 45.0% 42.0% 3.0%

2014 / 2 64.0% 60.0% 4.0%

2015 / 1 45.0% 42.0% 3.0%

2015 / 2 64.0% 60.0% 4.0%

2016 / 1 45.0% 42.0% 3.0%

2016 / 2 64.0% 60.0% 4.0%



Accident

Period

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 1 714 215 - 215 30.1% 1.2799 1.0000 1.0000 914 1.9026 1.0000 1.0000 409 44.7% -

2003 / 2 758 674 (0) 672 88.6% 1.2621 1.0000 1.0000 957 1.8585 1.0000 1.0000 1,248 130.4% -

2004 / 1 769 224 26 249 32.4% 1.2483 1.0000 1.0000 960 1.9778 1.0000 1.0000 493 51.4% -

2004 / 2 792 345 - 348 44.0% 1.2517 1.0000 1.0000 991 1.3622 1.0000 1.0000 474 47.8% -

2005 / 1 774 559 (0) 567 73.3% 1.2630 1.0000 1.0000 978 1.8981 1.0000 1.0000 1,076 110.0% -

2005 / 2 746 266 3 274 36.8% 1.2595 1.0000 1.0000 940 1.3067 1.0000 1.0000 358 38.1% -

2006 / 1 754 20 - 20 2.7% 1.2466 1.0000 1.0000 940 1.8246 1.0000 1.0000 37 3.9% -

2006 / 2 893 201 48 244 27.3% 1.2306 1.0000 1.0000 1,099 1.2575 1.0000 1.0000 307 27.9% -

2007 / 1 940 294 31 321 34.1% 1.2174 1.0000 1.0000 1,144 1.7489 1.0000 1.0000 561 49.0% -

2007 / 2 983 660 60 710 72.3% 1.1950 1.0000 1.0000 1,175 1.2063 1.0000 1.0000 857 72.9% -

2008 / 1 1,084 112 0 111 10.3% 1.1682 1.0000 1.0000 1,266 1.6792 1.0000 1.0000 187 14.8% 8.3%

2008 / 2 1,134 130 518 632 55.8% 1.1375 1.0000 1.0000 1,290 1.1609 1.0000 1.0000 734 56.9% 8.3%

2009 / 1 1,146 75 179 249 21.7% 1.1077 1.0000 1.0000 1,269 1.6149 1.0000 1.0000 402 31.7% 8.3%

2009 / 2 1,229 142 102 241 19.6% 1.0725 1.0000 1.0000 1,318 1.1156 1.0000 1.0000 269 20.4% 8.3%

2010 / 1 1,315 387 533 907 69.0% 1.0454 1.0000 1.0000 1,375 1.5523 1.0000 1.0000 1,408 102.4% 8.3%

2010 / 2 1,416 242 511 749 52.9% 1.0317 1.0000 1.0000 1,461 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 749 51.3% 8.3%

2011 / 1 1,227 74 795 881 71.8% 1.0185 1.0000 1.0000 1,250 1.4202 1.0000 1.0000 1,251 100.1% 8.3%

2011 / 2 1,201 40 839 900 74.9% 1.0028 1.0000 1.0000 1,204 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 900 74.8% 8.3%

2012 / 1 1,256 22 1,326 1,410 112.3% 1.0185 1.0000 1.0000 1,279 1.4202 1.0000 1.0000 2,003 156.6% 8.3%

2012 / 2 1,313 18 214 480 36.5% 1.0225 1.0000 1.0000 1,343 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 480 35.7% 8.3%

2013 / 1 1,355 42 188 535 39.5% 1.0151 1.0000 1.0000 1,375 1.4202 1.0000 1.0000 760 55.3% 8.3%

2013 / 2 1,295 11 449 803 62.0% 1.0022 1.0000 1.0000 1,298 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 803 61.9% 8.3%

Total 23,094 4,754 5,821 11,519 49.9% 1.1183 1.0000 1.0000 25,826 1.3687 1.0000 1.0000 15,766 61.0% 100.0%



(20.0%)

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1

RSP: Ontario - Underinsured Motorist



(80.0%)

(60.0%)

(40.0%)

(20.0%)

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1



Exhibit B.4.3b

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: CL

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 1 101.0% 99.0% 2.0%

2003 / 2 82.0% 81.0% 1.0%

2004 / 1 77.0% 74.0% 3.0%

2004 / 2 81.0% 80.0% 1.0%

2005 / 1 81.0% 80.0% 1.0%

2005 / 2 86.0% 88.0% (2.0%)

2006 / 1 85.0% 85.0% -

2006 / 2 89.0% 91.0% (2.0%)

2007 / 1 87.0% 87.0% -

2007 / 2 91.0% 92.0% (1.0%)

2008 / 1 89.0% 90.0% (1.0%)

2008 / 2 92.0% 93.0% (1.0%)

2009 / 1 89.0% 91.0% (2.0%)

2009 / 2 90.0% 90.0% -

2010 / 1 91.0% 90.0% 1.0%

2010 / 2 97.0% 95.0% 2.0%


2012 / 1 100.0% 98.0% 2.0%

2012 / 2 105.0% 105.0% -

2013 / 1 102.0% 99.0% 3.0%

2013 / 2 105.0% 105.0% -

2014 / 1 101.0% 101.0% -

2014 / 2 105.0% 105.0% -

2015 / 1 101.0% 102.0% (1.0%)

2015 / 2 106.0% 106.0% -

2016 / 1 102.0% 103.0% (1.0%)

2016 / 2 106.0% 107.0% (1.0%)



Accident

Period

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 1 12,810 11,561 0 11,561 90.2% 0.8171 1.0000 1.0000 10,467 0.8463 1.0000 1.0000 9,784 93.5% -

2003 / 2 13,998 9,902 (0) 9,902 70.7% 0.7738 1.0000 1.0000 10,832 0.9925 1.0000 1.0000 9,828 90.7% -

2004 / 1 14,394 8,820 0 8,820 61.3% 0.7487 1.0000 1.0000 10,777 1.0258 1.0000 1.0000 9,048 84.0% -

2004 / 2 14,448 9,750 2 9,753 67.5% 0.7649 1.0000 1.0000 11,051 0.9900 1.0000 1.0000 9,655 87.4% -

2005 / 1 13,746 9,179 8 9,186 66.8% 0.7939 1.0000 1.0000 10,913 1.0314 1.0000 1.0000 9,475 86.8% -

2005 / 2 12,856 10,168 20 10,188 79.2% 0.8158 1.0000 1.0000 10,488 0.9955 1.0000 1.0000 10,142 96.7% -

2006 / 1 12,655 8,698 20 8,718 68.9% 0.8328 1.0000 1.0000 10,539 1.0316 1.0000 1.0000 8,994 85.3% -

2006 / 2 14,576 12,194 28 12,222 83.8% 0.8453 1.0000 1.0000 12,321 0.9937 1.0000 1.0000 12,145 98.6% -

2007 / 1 15,117 13,718 17 13,735 90.9% 0.8505 1.0000 1.0000 12,857 1.0304 1.0000 1.0000 14,152 110.1% -

2007 / 2 15,346 13,364 18 13,381 87.2% 0.8604 1.0000 1.0000 13,204 0.9923 1.0000 1.0000 13,278 100.6% -

2008 / 1 16,617 15,030 35 15,065 90.7% 0.8612 1.0000 1.0000 14,311 1.0105 1.0000 1.0000 15,223 106.4% 8.3%

2008 / 2 16,984 16,563 3 16,566 97.5% 0.8594 1.0000 1.0000 14,596 0.9784 1.0000 1.0000 16,208 111.0% 8.3%

2009 / 1 16,621 14,460 22 14,482 87.1% 0.8644 1.0000 1.0000 14,367 1.0193 1.0000 1.0000 14,762 102.7% 8.3%

2009 / 2 16,816 15,989 93 16,082 95.6% 0.8836 1.0000 1.0000 14,859 1.0283 1.0000 1.0000 16,537 111.3% 8.3%

2010 / 1 18,901 16,604 20 16,624 88.0% 0.9204 1.0000 1.0000 17,396 1.0646 1.0000 1.0000 17,698 101.7% 8.3%

2010 / 2 19,780 18,560 18 18,578 93.9% 0.9445 1.0000 1.0000 18,682 1.0247 1.0000 1.0000 19,037 101.9% 8.3%

2011 / 1 17,585 15,930 20 15,949 90.7% 0.9607 1.0000 1.0000 16,894 1.0609 1.0000 1.0000 16,921 100.2% 8.3%

2011 / 2 16,596 16,732 33 16,753 100.9% 0.9916 1.0000 1.0000 16,457 1.0199 1.0000 1.0000 17,086 103.8% 8.3%

2012 / 1 17,012 14,994 64 15,037 88.4% 1.0042 1.0000 1.0000 17,083 1.0546 1.0000 1.0000 15,858 92.8% 8.3%

2012 / 2 16,900 17,282 53 17,292 102.3% 1.0166 1.0000 1.0000 17,181 1.0133 1.0000 1.0000 17,522 102.0% 8.3%

2013 / 1 16,388 17,021 167 17,149 104.6% 1.0170 1.0000 1.0000 16,667 1.0473 1.0000 1.0000 17,960 107.8% 8.3%

2013 / 2 16,469 19,301 387 19,645 119.3% 1.0092 1.0000 1.0000 16,621 1.0055 1.0000 1.0000 19,753 118.8% 8.3%

Total 346,615 305,819 1,027 306,689 88.5% 0.8902 1.0000 1.0000 308,563 1.0143 1.0000 1.0000 311,066 100.8% 100.0%



(20.0%)

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1

RSP: Ontario - Collision (w All Perils)



(30.0%)

(20.0%)

(10.0%)

-

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1



Exhibit B.4.3c

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: CM

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2003 / 1 80.0% 80.0% -

2003 / 2 86.0% 85.0% 1.0%

2004 / 1 50.0% 49.0% 1.0%

2004 / 2 61.0% 60.0% 1.0%

2005 / 1 61.0% 61.0% -

2005 / 2 83.0% 83.0% -

2006 / 1 77.0% 76.0% 1.0%

2006 / 2 87.0% 86.0% 1.0%

2007 / 1 80.0% 79.0% 1.0%

2007 / 2 90.0% 89.0% 1.0%

2008 / 1 81.0% 80.0% 1.0%

2008 / 2 89.0% 88.0% 1.0%

2009 / 1 80.0% 79.0% 1.0%

2009 / 2 90.0% 90.0% -

2010 / 1 79.0% 78.0% 1.0%

2010 / 2 90.0% 89.0% 1.0%

2011 / 1 82.0% 82.0% - Selected Model Loss Ratio Residuals Plot2011 / 2 94.0% 93.0% 1.0%

2012 / 1 87.0% 87.0% -

2012 / 2 99.0% 98.0% 1.0%

2013 / 1 90.0% 90.0% -

2013 / 2 99.0% 99.0% -

2014 / 1 89.0% 88.0% 1.0%

2014 / 2 99.0% 98.0% 1.0%

2015 / 1 90.0% 89.0% 1.0%

2015 / 2 100.0% 99.0% 1.0%

2016 / 1 90.0% 90.0% -

2016 / 2 101.0% 100.0% 1.0%



Accident

Period

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2014 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2014

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2014 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2003 / 1 5,759 3,601 0 3,601 62.5% 0.6287 1.0000 1.0000 3,621 0.7766 1.0000 1.0000 2,797 77.2% -

2003 / 2 6,085 4,774 0 4,774 78.5% 0.6077 1.0000 1.0000 3,698 0.7013 1.0000 1.0000 3,348 90.5% -

2004 / 1 6,092 3,232 1 3,233 53.1% 0.6044 1.0000 1.0000 3,682 1.2082 1.0000 1.0000 3,907 106.1% -

2004 / 2 5,863 3,339 1 3,341 57.0% 0.6419 1.0000 1.0000 3,763 1.0483 1.0000 1.0000 3,502 93.1% -

2005 / 1 5,498 2,544 6 2,550 46.4% 0.6872 1.0000 1.0000 3,778 1.1186 1.0000 1.0000 2,852 75.5% -

2005 / 2 5,022 3,507 5 3,512 69.9% 0.7309 1.0000 1.0000 3,671 0.8683 1.0000 1.0000 3,050 83.1% -

2006 / 1 4,835 2,560 4 2,564 53.0% 0.7547 1.0000 1.0000 3,649 0.9743 1.0000 1.0000 2,498 68.5% -

2006 / 2 5,415 4,376 3 4,379 80.9% 0.7796 1.0000 1.0000 4,222 0.8883 1.0000 1.0000 3,890 92.1% -

2007 / 1 5,535 3,380 7 3,387 61.2% 0.8004 1.0000 1.0000 4,430 0.9966 1.0000 1.0000 3,375 76.2% -

2007 / 2 5,468 4,132 3 4,135 75.6% 0.8258 1.0000 1.0000 4,515 0.9087 1.0000 1.0000 3,757 83.2% -

2008 / 1 5,933 5,380 0 5,381 90.7% 0.8295 1.0000 1.0000 4,921 1.0194 1.0000 1.0000 5,485 111.5% 8.3%

2008 / 2 5,986 4,826 0 4,826 80.6% 0.8336 1.0000 1.0000 4,990 0.9298 1.0000 1.0000 4,487 89.9% 8.3%

2009 / 1 5,883 4,708 0 4,709 80.0% 0.8428 1.0000 1.0000 4,958 1.0429 1.0000 1.0000 4,911 99.1% 8.3%

2009 / 2 5,874 4,867 104 4,972 84.6% 0.8675 1.0000 1.0000 5,096 0.9521 1.0000 1.0000 4,733 92.9% 8.3%

2010 / 1 5,675 4,355 23 4,378 77.1% 0.9158 1.0000 1.0000 5,197 1.1501 1.0000 1.0000 5,035 96.9% 8.3%

2010 / 2 5,863 5,008 4 5,012 85.5% 0.9390 1.0000 1.0000 5,505 1.0328 1.0000 1.0000 5,177 94.0% 8.3%

2011 / 1 5,061 4,464 52 4,516 89.2% 0.9463 1.0000 1.0000 4,789 1.1405 1.0000 1.0000 5,150 107.5% 8.3%

2011 / 2 4,783 4,055 30 4,086 85.4% 0.9738 1.0000 1.0000 4,658 1.0242 1.0000 1.0000 4,185 89.8% 8.3%

2012 / 1 4,808 3,951 3 3,962 82.4% 0.9956 1.0000 1.0000 4,787 1.1315 1.0000 1.0000 4,483 93.6% 8.3%

2012 / 2 4,733 4,698 59 4,777 100.9% 1.0153 1.0000 1.0000 4,805 1.0162 1.0000 1.0000 4,854 101.0% 8.3%

2013 / 1 4,687 3,797 37 3,856 82.3% 1.0210 1.0000 1.0000 4,785 1.1220 1.0000 1.0000 4,326 90.4% 8.3%

2013 / 2 4,564 5,698 41 5,784 126.7% 1.0105 1.0000 1.0000 4,612 1.0077 1.0000 1.0000 5,828 126.4% 8.3%

Total 119,422 91,252 387 91,732 76.8% 0.8217 1.0000 1.0000 98,132 0.9989 1.0000 1.0000 91,630 93.4% 100.0%



-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1

RSP: Ontario - Comprehensive (w Spec Perils)



(30.0%)

(20.0%)

(10.0%)

-

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

'03H1

'04H1

'05H1

'06H1

'07H1

'08H1

'09H1

'10H1

'11H1

'12H1

'13H1

'14H1

'15H1

'16H1



Exhibit B.4.4-1






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]

=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 23,911 31,668 - 31,668 31,668 31,668 31,668 31,668

1994 54,937 56,909 1 56,909 56,909 56,909 56,909 103.6% 103.6% 103.6% 56,909 103.6%

1995 64,357 55,351 (0) 55,351 55,351 55,351 55,351 86.0% 86.0% 86.0% 55,351 86.0%

1996 54,603 44,131 (0) 44,131 44,131 44,131 44,131 80.8% 80.8% 80.8% 44,131 80.8%

1997 42,917 33,072 5 33,077 33,077 33,077 33,077 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 33,077 77.1%

1998 30,222 23,388 12 23,400 23,400 23,400 23,400 77.4% 77.4% 77.4% 23,400 77.4%

1999 20,100 18,099 2 18,101 18,101 18,101 18,101 90.1% 90.1% 90.1% 18,101 90.1%

2000 20,106 21,498 (0) 21,498 21,498 21,498 21,498 106.9% 106.9% 106.9% 21,498 106.9%

2001 23,724 22,306 (0) 22,306 22,306 22,306 22,306 94.0% 94.0% 94.0% 22,306 94.0%

2002 33,552 30,176 (0) 30,176 30,176 30,176 30,176 89.9% 89.9% 89.9% 30,176 89.9%

2003 40,126 30,726 0 30,726 30,726 30,726 30,726 76.6% 76.6% 76.6% 30,725 76.6%

2004 42,358 25,711 31 25,741 25,743 25,743 25,741 60.8% 60.8% 60.8% 25,742 60.8%

2005 38,642 26,223 42 26,265 26,276 26,276 26,265 68.0% 68.0% 68.0% 26,276 68.0%

2006 39,128 28,049 103 28,152 28,149 28,149 28,152 71.9% 71.9% 71.9% 28,149 71.9%

2007 43,387 35,542 114 35,657 35,642 35,642 35,657 82.1% 82.1% 82.2% 35,642 82.1%

2008 47,738 42,050 519 42,569 42,557 42,557 42,569 89.1% 89.1% 89.2% 42,557 89.1%

2009 47,570 40,359 415 40,774 40,764 40,764 40,774 85.7% 85.7% 85.7% 40,764 85.7%

2010 52,950 45,178 956 46,134 47,646 46,116 0.1% 99.9% 46,117 46,256 46,134 90.0% 87.1% 87.1% 87.4% 87.1% 46,116 87.1%

2011 46,452 41,272 1,717 42,989 43,612 43,015 (1.1%) 101.1% 43,008 43,218 42,989 93.9% 92.6% 92.6% 93.0% 92.5% 43,008 92.6%

2012 46,022 40,989 1,704 42,692 45,057 42,843 1.5% 98.5% 42,877 44,048 42,692 97.9% 93.1% 93.2% 95.7% 92.8% 42,879 93.2%

2013 44,751 46,209 1,101 47,311 44,190 47,853 (1.2%) 101.2% 47,896 44,621 47,311 98.7% 106.9% 107.0% 99.7% 105.7% 47,963 107.2%

2014 31,341 30,149 4,388 34,537 41,599 47,273 4.5% 95.5% 47,016 19,933 34,537 35,715 114.0%

Total 888,896 769,056 11,108 780,164 222,105 793,572 226,915 764,550 780,164 782,153




Exhibit B.4.4-2






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



MethodBF Method*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

ELR Method*LR Ratio


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 31,668 31,668 31,668 - 31,668 31,668 - 31,668 - - -

1994 56,909 56,909 56,909 N/A - 56,909 103.6% 56,909 N/A - 56,909 103.6% - - - -

1995 55,351 55,351 55,351 N/A - 55,351 86.0% 55,352 N/A - 55,352 86.0% - - - -

1996 44,131 44,131 44,131 N/A - 44,131 80.8% 44,131 N/A - 44,131 80.8% - - - -

1997 33,077 33,077 33,077 N/A - 33,077 77.1% 33,077 N/A - 33,077 77.1% - - - -

1998 23,400 23,400 23,400 N/A - 23,400 77.4% 23,400 N/A - 23,400 77.4% - - - -

1999 18,101 18,101 18,101 N/A - 18,101 90.1% 18,101 N/A - 18,101 90.1% - - - -

2000 21,498 21,498 21,498 N/A - 21,498 106.9% 21,498 N/A - 21,498 106.9% - - - -

2001 22,306 22,306 22,306 N/A - 22,306 94.0% 22,306 N/A - 22,306 94.0% - - - -

2002 30,176 30,176 30,176 N/A - 30,176 89.9% 30,176 N/A - 30,176 89.9% - - - -

2003 30,726 30,726 30,726 N/A (1) 30,725 76.6% 30,725 N/A (2) 30,724 76.6% - 1 1 -

2004 25,743 25,743 25,741 N/A 1 25,742 60.8% 25,745 N/A 3 25,745 60.8% - (2) (2) -

2005 26,276 26,276 26,265 N/A 11 26,276 68.0% 26,278 N/A 13 26,278 68.0% - (2) (2) -

2006 28,149 28,149 28,152 N/A (3) 28,149 71.9% 28,147 N/A (5) 28,147 71.9% - 2 2 -

2007 35,642 35,642 35,657 N/A (15) 35,642 82.1% 35,669 N/A (14) 35,669 82.2% (26) (1) (27) (0.1%)

2008 42,557 42,557 42,569 N/A (12) 42,557 89.1% 42,581 N/A (17) 42,582 89.2% (29) 5 (24) (0.1%)

2009 40,764 40,764 40,774 N/A (10) 40,764 85.7% 40,734 N/A (8) 40,735 85.6% 31 (2) 29 0.1%

2010 47,646 46,116 46,117 46,256 46,134 N/A (18) 46,116 87.1% 46,836 46,249 46,254 N/A (17) 46,248 87.3% (131) (1) (132) (0.2%)

2011 43,612 43,015 43,008 43,218 42,989 N/A 19 43,008 92.6% 42,797 43,099 43,085 N/A 21 43,084 92.7% (74) (2) (76) (0.1%)

2012 45,057 42,843 42,877 44,048 42,692 N/A 187 42,879 93.2% 44,579 42,926 42,953 N/A 273 42,958 93.3% 7 (86) (79) (0.1%)

2013 44,190 47,853 47,896 44,621 47,311 N/A 652 47,963 107.2% 43,613 47,799 47,771 N/A 633 47,771 106.7% 173 19 192 0.5%

2014 41,599 47,273 47,016 19,933 34,537 N/A 1,178 35,715 114.0% 20,050 24,269 24,020 N/A 1,344 23,993 113.8% 11,889 (166) 11,723 0.2%

Total 222,105 793,572 226,915 764,550 780,164 1,989 782,153 197,875 770,837 204,083 2,224 770,549 11,840 (235) 11,605

2013 & Prior 180,506 746,299 179,899 744,616 745,626 811 746,437 177,825 746,567 180,063 880 746,557 (49) (69) (118)




Exhibit B.4.4a-1





Coverage: Underinsured Motorist

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR*

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR*

ELR

Method

(no trend

change)

Ult LR*

User

Defined 2

Ult LR*

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 - 767 - 767 767 767 767 767

1994 / 1 - 60 - 60 60 - 100.0% 60 60 60

1994 / 2 - 119 0 119 119 - 100.0% 119 119 119

1995 / 1 - 60 - 60 60 - 100.0% 60 60 60

1995 / 2 - 90 - 90 90 - 100.0% 90 90 90

1996 / 1 - - - - - - 100.0% - - -

1996 / 2 - 7 (0) 7 7 - 100.0% 7 7 7

1997 / 1 - 13 - 13 13 - 100.0% 13 13 13

1997 / 2 - 565 - 565 565 - 100.0% 565 565 565

1998 / 1 - 131 (0) 131 131 - 100.0% 131 131 131

1998 / 2 - 52 - 52 52 - 100.0% 52 52 52

1999 / 1 - 7 - 7 7 - 100.0% 7 7 7

1999 / 2 - 106 - 106 106 - 100.0% 106 106 106

2000 / 1 - 151 (0) 151 151 - 100.0% 151 151 151

2000 / 2 - 597 0 597 597 - 100.0% 597 597 597

2001 / 1 - 35 - 35 35 - 100.0% 35 35 35

2001 / 2 - 39 - 39 39 - 100.0% 39 39 39

2002 / 1 - 138 - 138 138 - 100.0% 138 138 138

2002 / 2 0 666 (0) 666 666 - 100.0% 666 666 666

2003 / 1 0 215 - 215 215 - 100.0% 215 215 215

2003 / 2 - 674 (0) 674 673 - 100.0% 673 674 673

2004 / 1 - 224 26 249 249 - 100.0% 249 249 249

2004 / 2 (0) 345 - 345 347 - 100.0% 347 345 346

2005 / 1 (0) 559 (0) 559 565 - 100.0% 565 559 565

2005 / 2 0 266 3 269 274 - 100.0% 274 269 274

2006 / 1 (0) 20 - 20 21 - 100.0% 21 20 20

2006 / 2 (1) 201 48 249 246 - 100.0% 246 249 246

2007 / 1 (2) 294 10 305 300 - 100.0% 300 305 300

2007 / 2 (3) 661 60 720 711 - 100.0% 711 720 710

2008 / 1 (2) 112 0 112 111 - 100.0% 111 112 111

2008 / 2 1 138 481 619 608 - 100.0% 608 619 608

2009 / 1 306 76 169 245 239 - 100.0% 239 245 239

2009 / 2 975 146 102 248 605 244 (1.7%) 101.7% 238 - 100.0% 244 248 62.0% 25.0% 24.4% 25.0% 25.4% 244 25.0%

2010 / 1 1,315 405 451 856 565 844 (1.4%) 101.4% 848 - 100.0% 844 856 43.0% 64.2% 64.5% 64.2% 65.1% 844 64.2%

2010 / 2 1,416 249 440 689 935 683 (0.9%) 100.9% 680 12.5% 87.5% 714 689 66.0% 48.2% 48.1% 50.4% 48.7% 683 48.2%

2011 / 1 1,227 77 733 809 564 818 1.0% 99.0% 815 25.0% 75.0% 754 809 46.0% 66.6% 66.4% 61.5% 66.0% 815 66.5%

2011 / 2 1,201 45 848 893 768 917 2.6% 97.4% 913 37.5% 62.5% 861 893 64.0% 76.4% 76.1% 71.7% 74.4% 913 76.1%

2012 / 1 1,256 33 1,202 1,235 578 1,331 7.2% 92.8% 1,277 50.0% 50.0% 954 1,235 46.0% 105.9% 101.6% 76.0% 98.3% 1,276 101.6%

2012 / 2 1,313 18 314 333 853 422 21.1% 78.9% 513 62.5% 37.5% 692 333 65.0% 32.1% 39.1% 52.7% 25.3% 513 39.1%

2013 / 1 1,355 43 174 217 623 341 36.4% 63.6% 444 75.0% 25.0% 553 217 46.0% 25.2% 32.8% 40.8% 16.0% 553 40.8%

2013 / 2 1,294 12 489 501 828 954 47.5% 52.5% 894 87.5% 12.5% 844 501 64.0% 73.7% 69.1% 65.2% 38.7% 844 65.2%

2014 / 1 1,155 - 257 257 520 714 64.1% 35.9% 589 100.0% - 520 257 45.0% 61.9% 51.1% 45.0% 22.2% 520 45.0%

2014 / 2 574 8 0 9 749 68 87.5% 12.5% 664 - - - 9 64.0% 5.8% 56.8% - - 368 64.0%

Total 13,379 8,427 5,805 14,232 7,588 15,498 7,876 15,142 14,232 15,733




Exhibit B.4.4a-2





Coverage: Underinsured Motorist

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

User Defined

1 IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 767 - - 767 - - -



















2003 / 1 0 0 - Link Ratio Method - 215 0 Link Ratio Method - 215 - - -


2004 / 1 (0) (0) - Link Ratio Method - 249 0 Link Ratio Method - 249 - - -

2004 / 2 1 1 - Link Ratio Method 1 346 3 Link Ratio Method 3 348 - (2) (2)

2005 / 1 6 6 - Link Ratio Method 6 565 8 Link Ratio Method 8 567 - (2) (2)

2005 / 2 5 5 - Link Ratio Method 5 274 5 Link Ratio Method 5 274 - - -

2006 / 1 0 0 - Link Ratio Method - 20 (0) Link Ratio Method - 20 - - -


2007 / 1 (5) (5) - Link Ratio Method (5) 300 (5) Link Ratio Method (5) 321 (21) - (21)

2007 / 2 (10) (10) - Link Ratio Method (10) 710 (9) Link Ratio Method (9) 710 1 (1) -

2008 / 1 (1) (1) - Link Ratio Method (1) 111 (1) Link Ratio Method (1) 111 - - -

2008 / 2 (11) (11) - Link Ratio Method (11) 608 (16) Link Ratio Method (16) 632 (30) 5 (25)

2009 / 1 (6) (6) - Link Ratio Method (6) 239 (5) Link Ratio Method (5) 249 (9) (1) (10)

2009 / 2 357 (4) (10) (4) - Link Ratio Method (4) 244 25.0% 312 (3) (7) Link Ratio Method (3) 241 24.7% 4 (1) 3 0.3%

2010 / 1 (290) (12) (8) (12) - Link Ratio Method (12) 844 64.2% (395) (14) (8) Link Ratio Method (14) 907 69.0% (65) 2 (63) (4.8%)

2010 / 2 245 (6) (9) 25 - Link Ratio Method (6) 683 48.2% 112 (3) (3) Link Ratio Method (3) 749 52.9% (63) (3) (66) (4.7%)

2011 / 1 (245) 8 6 (55) - BF Method 6 815 66.5% (341) 21 12 BF Method 12 881 71.8% (59) (6) (65) (5.3%)

2011 / 2 (125) 24 20 (32) - BF Method 20 913 76.1% (159) 26 21 BF Method 21 900 75.0% 14 (1) 13 1.1%

2012 / 1 (657) 95 41 (281) - BF Method 41 1,276 101.6% (808) 174 62 BF Method 62 1,410 112.3% (113) (21) (134) (10.7%)

2012 / 2 521 89 180 359 - BF Method 180 513 39.1% 568 104 247 BF Method 247 480 36.5% 100 (67) 33 2.6%

2013 / 1 406 124 227 336 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 336 553 40.8% 353 165 244 ELR & LR Wtd Method 306 535 39.5% (12) 30 18 1.3%

2013 / 2 327 453 393 343 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 343 844 65.2% 318 519 412 ELR & LR Wtd Method 343 803 62.0% 42 - 42 3.2%

2014 / 1 263 458 333 263 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 263 520 45.0% 341 449 368 ELR & LR Wtd Method 341 490 42.0% 108 (78) 30 3.0%

2014 / 2 359 368 64.0%

Total 801 1,206 1,174 918 - 1,501 15,733 300 1,412 1,348 1,285 15,613 (103) (143) (246)

2013 / 2 & Prior 538 748 841 655 - 879 14,846 (40) 963 980 944 15,123 (211) (65) (276)




Exhibit B.4.4b-1





Coverage: Collision (w All Perils)

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 23,911 16,500 - 16,500 16,500 16,500 16,500 16,500

1994 / 1 24,306 15,458 0 15,458 15,458 - 100.0% 15,458 15,458 15,458

1994 / 2 30,630 15,558 0 15,558 15,558 - 100.0% 15,558 15,558 15,558

1995 / 1 32,728 15,056 (0) 15,056 15,056 - 100.0% 15,056 15,056 15,056

1995 / 2 31,629 14,683 (0) 14,683 14,683 - 100.0% 14,683 14,683 14,683

1996 / 1 28,520 12,837 (0) 12,837 12,837 - 100.0% 12,837 12,837 12,837

1996 / 2 26,083 11,328 0 11,328 11,328 - 100.0% 11,328 11,328 11,328

1997 / 1 22,824 10,275 1 10,276 10,276 - 100.0% 10,276 10,276 10,276

1997 / 2 20,093 9,006 (0) 9,006 9,006 - 100.0% 9,006 9,006 9,006

1998 / 1 17,115 7,729 5 7,734 7,734 - 100.0% 7,734 7,734 7,734

1998 / 2 13,107 6,533 2 6,535 6,535 - 100.0% 6,535 6,535 6,535

1999 / 1 10,390 5,929 2 5,931 5,931 - 100.0% 5,931 5,931 5,931

1999 / 2 9,710 6,385 0 6,385 6,385 - 100.0% 6,385 6,385 6,385

2000 / 1 9,812 6,145 0 6,145 6,145 - 100.0% 6,145 6,145 6,145

2000 / 2 10,294 8,241 (0) 8,241 8,241 - 100.0% 8,241 8,241 8,241

2001 / 1 10,549 6,668 (0) 6,668 6,668 - 100.0% 6,668 6,668 6,668

2001 / 2 13,175 8,499 (0) 8,499 8,499 - 100.0% 8,499 8,499 8,499

2002 / 1 15,749 9,228 (0) 9,228 9,228 - 100.0% 9,228 9,228 9,228

2002 / 2 17,802 11,773 (0) 11,773 11,773 - 100.0% 11,773 11,773 11,773

2003 / 1 19,284 11,561 0 11,561 11,561 - 100.0% 11,561 11,561 11,561

2003 / 2 20,842 9,902 (0) 9,902 9,902 - 100.0% 9,902 9,902 9,902

2004 / 1 21,255 8,820 0 8,820 8,820 - 100.0% 8,820 8,820 8,820

2004 / 2 21,103 9,750 2 9,753 9,753 - 100.0% 9,753 9,753 9,753

2005 / 1 20,018 9,179 8 9,186 9,186 - 100.0% 9,186 9,186 9,186

2005 / 2 18,624 10,168 20 10,188 10,188 - 100.0% 10,188 10,188 10,188

2006 / 1 18,245 8,698 20 8,718 8,718 - 100.0% 8,718 8,718 8,718

2006 / 2 20,889 12,194 28 12,222 12,222 - 100.0% 12,222 12,222 12,222

2007 / 1 21,614 13,717 17 13,733 13,733 - 100.0% 13,733 13,733 13,733

2007 / 2 21,828 13,359 17 13,377 13,377 - 100.0% 13,377 13,377 13,377

2008 / 1 23,651 15,030 35 15,065 15,065 - 100.0% 15,065 15,065 15,065

2008 / 2 24,057 16,563 3 16,566 16,566 - 100.0% 16,566 16,566 16,566

2009 / 1 21,739 14,460 22 14,482 14,482 - 100.0% 14,482 14,482 14,482

2009 / 2 18,529 15,989 93 16,082 16,676 16,082 - 100.0% 16,082 - 100.0% 16,082 16,082 90.0% 86.8% 86.8% 86.8% 86.8% 16,082 86.8%

2010 / 1 18,901 16,600 20 16,620 17,200 16,620 - 100.0% 16,620 - 100.0% 16,620 16,620 91.0% 87.9% 87.9% 87.9% 87.9% 16,620 87.9%

2010 / 2 19,780 18,560 19 18,579 19,186 18,579 - 100.0% 18,579 12.5% 87.5% 18,655 18,579 97.0% 93.9% 93.9% 94.3% 93.9% 18,579 93.9%

2011 / 1 17,585 15,896 26 15,922 16,706 15,922 - 100.0% 15,922 25.0% 75.0% 16,118 15,922 95.0% 90.5% 90.5% 91.7% 90.5% 15,922 90.5%

2011 / 2 16,595 16,734 29 16,763 16,927 16,756 - 100.0% 16,756 37.5% 62.5% 16,820 16,763 102.0% 101.0% 101.0% 101.4% 101.0% 16,756 101.0%

2012 / 1 17,011 14,998 75 15,073 17,011 15,056 (0.1%) 100.1% 15,054 50.0% 50.0% 16,034 15,073 100.0% 88.5% 88.5% 94.3% 88.6% 15,056 88.5%

2012 / 2 16,901 17,278 52 17,330 17,746 17,296 (0.2%) 100.2% 17,295 62.5% 37.5% 17,577 17,330 105.0% 102.3% 102.3% 104.0% 102.5% 17,295 102.3%

2013 / 1 16,390 17,025 152 17,177 16,717 17,134 (0.3%) 100.3% 17,135 75.0% 25.0% 16,821 17,177 102.0% 104.5% 104.5% 102.6% 104.8% 17,135 104.5%

2013 / 2 16,462 19,553 240 19,793 17,286 19,744 (0.3%) 100.3% 19,750 87.5% 12.5% 17,593 19,793 105.0% 119.9% 120.0% 106.9% 120.2% 19,750 120.0%

2014 / 1 15,530 19,187 681 19,868 15,686 20,209 1.7% 98.3% 20,132 100.0% - 15,686 19,868 101.0% 130.1% 129.6% 101.0% 127.9% 20,133 129.6%

2014 / 2 7,814 5,671 2,769 8,439 16,722 17,510 51.8% 48.2% 17,102 - - - 8,439 105.0% 109.9% 107.4% - - 8,391 107.4%

Total 823,078 528,723 4,338 533,061 187,865 542,322 190,427 519,421 533,061 533,134




Exhibit B.4.4b-2





Coverage: Collision (w All Perils)

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

User Defined

1 IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 16,500 - - 16,500 - - -
































2009 / 2 594 - - - - Link Ratio Method - 16,082 86.8% 594 - - Link Ratio Method - 16,082 86.8% - - - -

2010 / 1 580 - - - - Link Ratio Method - 16,620 87.9% 387 - - Link Ratio Method - 16,624 88.0% (4) - (4) (0.1%)

2010 / 2 607 - - 76 - Link Ratio Method - 18,579 93.9% 213 - - Link Ratio Method - 18,578 93.9% 1 - 1 -

2011 / 1 785 - - 196 - Link Ratio Method - 15,922 90.5% 405 - - Link Ratio Method - 15,949 90.7% (28) - (28) (0.2%)

2011 / 2 164 (7) (7) 57 - Link Ratio Method (7) 16,756 101.0% (169) (12) (12) Link Ratio Method (12) 16,753 100.9% (2) 5 3 0.1%

2012 / 1 1,939 (17) (19) 961 - Link Ratio Method (17) 15,056 88.5% 1,614 (21) (23) Link Ratio Method (21) 15,037 88.4% 15 4 19 0.1%

2012 / 2 416 (35) (36) 247 - Link Ratio Method (35) 17,295 102.3% 411 (42) (43) Link Ratio Method (42) 17,292 102.3% (4) 7 3 -

2013 / 1 (459) (43) (42) (355) - BF Method (42) 17,135 104.5% (963) (41) (39) BF Method (39) 17,149 104.6% (11) (3) (14) (0.1%)

2013 / 2 (2,508) (49) (43) (2,200) - BF Method (43) 19,750 120.0% (2,396) (49) (43) BF Method (43) 19,645 119.3% 105 - 105 0.7%

2014 / 1 (4,182) 341 265 (4,182) - BF Method 265 20,133 129.6% (3,157) 720 578 BF Method 578 19,565 124.8% 881 (313) 568 4.8%

2014 / 2 (48) 8,391 107.4%

Total (2,064) 191 118 (5,200) - 73 533,134 (3,061) 555 418 421 524,095 947 (300) 647

2013 / 2 & Prior 2,118 (150) (146) (1,018) - (144) 504,610 96 (165) (160) (157) 504,530 66 13 79




Exhibit B.4.4c-1





Coverage: Comprehensive (w Spec Perils)

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 - 14,401 - 14,401 14,401 14,401 14,401 14,401

1994 / 1 - 12,330 0 12,331 12,331 - 100.0% 12,331 12,331 12,331

1994 / 2 - 13,383 0 13,383 13,383 - 100.0% 13,383 13,383 13,383

1995 / 1 - 12,374 0 12,374 12,374 - 100.0% 12,374 12,374 12,374

1995 / 2 - 13,089 0 13,089 13,089 - 100.0% 13,089 13,089 13,089

1996 / 1 - 10,445 (0) 10,445 10,445 - 100.0% 10,445 10,445 10,445

1996 / 2 - 9,514 (0) 9,513 9,513 - 100.0% 9,513 9,513 9,513

1997 / 1 - 6,574 (0) 6,574 6,574 - 100.0% 6,574 6,574 6,574

1997 / 2 - 6,638 4 6,642 6,642 - 100.0% 6,642 6,642 6,642

1998 / 1 - 4,994 3 4,997 4,997 - 100.0% 4,997 4,997 4,997

1998 / 2 - 3,949 1 3,951 3,951 - 100.0% 3,951 3,951 3,951

1999 / 1 - 2,668 0 2,669 2,669 - 100.0% 2,669 2,669 2,669

1999 / 2 - 3,004 (0) 3,004 3,004 - 100.0% 3,004 3,004 3,004

2000 / 1 - 2,984 (0) 2,984 2,984 - 100.0% 2,984 2,984 2,984

2000 / 2 - 3,379 (0) 3,379 3,379 - 100.0% 3,379 3,379 3,379

2001 / 1 - 3,241 (0) 3,241 3,241 - 100.0% 3,241 3,241 3,241

2001 / 2 - 3,823 (0) 3,823 3,823 - 100.0% 3,823 3,823 3,823

2002 / 1 - 4,141 (0) 4,141 4,141 - 100.0% 4,141 4,141 4,141

2002 / 2 0 4,229 0 4,229 4,229 - 100.0% 4,229 4,229 4,229

2003 / 1 0 3,601 0 3,601 3,601 - 100.0% 3,601 3,601 3,601

2003 / 2 - 4,774 0 4,774 4,774 - 100.0% 4,774 4,774 4,774

2004 / 1 - 3,232 1 3,233 3,233 - 100.0% 3,233 3,233 3,233

2004 / 2 (0) 3,339 1 3,341 3,341 - 100.0% 3,341 3,341 3,341

2005 / 1 (0) 2,544 6 2,550 2,550 - 100.0% 2,550 2,550 2,550

2005 / 2 (0) 3,507 5 3,512 3,512 - 100.0% 3,512 3,512 3,512

2006 / 1 (0) 2,560 4 2,564 2,564 - 100.0% 2,564 2,564 2,564

2006 / 2 (4) 4,376 3 4,379 4,379 - 100.0% 4,379 4,379 4,379

2007 / 1 (20) 3,380 7 3,387 3,387 - 100.0% 3,387 3,387 3,387

2007 / 2 (28) 4,132 3 4,135 4,135 - 100.0% 4,135 4,135 4,135

2008 / 1 (16) 5,380 0 5,381 5,381 - 100.0% 5,381 5,381 5,381

2008 / 2 47 4,826 0 4,826 4,826 - 100.0% 4,826 4,826 4,826

2009 / 1 1,605 4,710 0 4,710 4,710 - 100.0% 4,710 4,710 4,710

2009 / 2 4,415 4,979 28 5,007 3,974 5,007 - 100.0% 5,007 - 100.0% 5,007 5,007 90.0% 113.4% 113.4% 113.4% 113.4% 5,007 113.4%

2010 / 1 5,675 4,355 23 4,378 4,483 4,378 - 100.0% 4,378 - 100.0% 4,378 4,378 79.0% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 4,378 77.1%

2010 / 2 5,863 5,009 3 5,012 5,276 5,012 - 100.0% 5,012 12.5% 87.5% 5,045 5,012 90.0% 85.5% 85.5% 86.0% 85.5% 5,012 85.5%

2011 / 1 5,061 4,464 52 4,516 4,150 4,516 - 100.0% 4,516 25.0% 75.0% 4,425 4,516 82.0% 89.2% 89.2% 87.4% 89.2% 4,516 89.2%

2011 / 2 4,783 4,057 29 4,086 4,496 4,086 - 100.0% 4,086 37.5% 62.5% 4,240 4,086 94.0% 85.4% 85.4% 88.6% 85.4% 4,086 85.4%

2012 / 1 4,808 3,949 2 3,951 4,183 3,954 0.1% 99.9% 3,954 50.0% 50.0% 4,069 3,951 87.0% 82.2% 82.3% 84.6% 82.2% 3,955 82.3%

2012 / 2 4,733 4,712 59 4,771 4,686 4,784 0.3% 99.7% 4,784 62.5% 37.5% 4,723 4,771 99.0% 101.1% 101.1% 99.8% 100.8% 4,785 101.1%

2013 / 1 4,688 3,826 25 3,851 4,219 3,870 0.5% 99.5% 3,872 75.0% 25.0% 4,132 3,851 90.0% 82.6% 82.6% 88.1% 82.2% 3,870 82.6%

2013 / 2 4,562 5,750 22 5,771 4,516 5,810 0.7% 99.3% 5,801 87.5% 12.5% 4,678 5,771 99.0% 127.4% 127.2% 102.5% 126.5% 5,810 127.4%

2014 / 1 4,189 3,743 193 3,935 3,728 4,190 6.1% 93.9% 4,162 100.0% - 3,728 3,935 89.0% 100.0% 99.4% 89.0% 93.9% 4,162 99.4%

2014 / 2 2,079 1,540 490 2,030 4,195 4,582 55.7% 44.3% 4,366 - - - 2,030 99.0% 108.1% 103.0% - - 2,142 103.0%

Total 52,439 231,906 965 232,871 47,907 235,752 49,939 229,986 232,871 233,286




Exhibit B.4.4c-2





Coverage: Comprehensive (w Spec Perils)

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

User Defined

1 IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 14,401 - - 14,401 - - -
































2009 / 2 (1,033) - - - - Link Ratio Method - 5,007 113.4% (998) - - Link Ratio Method - 4,972 112.6% 36 - 36 0.8%

2010 / 1 106 - - - - Link Ratio Method - 4,378 77.1% 49 - - Link Ratio Method - 4,378 77.1% - - - -

2010 / 2 265 - - 33 - Link Ratio Method - 5,012 85.5% 205 - - Link Ratio Method - 5,012 85.5% (1) - (1) -

2011 / 1 (366) - - (91) - Link Ratio Method - 4,516 89.2% (366) - - Link Ratio Method - 4,516 89.2% - - - -

2011 / 2 410 - - 154 - Link Ratio Method - 4,086 85.4% 363 - - Link Ratio Method - 4,086 85.4% - - - -

2012 / 1 232 4 4 118 - Link Ratio Method 4 3,955 82.3% 229 8 8 Link Ratio Method 8 3,962 82.4% (3) (4) (7) (0.1%)

2012 / 2 (85) 14 14 (48) - Link Ratio Method 14 4,785 101.1% (119) 19 18 Link Ratio Method 19 4,777 100.9% 13 (5) 8 0.2%

2013 / 1 367 19 20 280 - Link Ratio Method 19 3,870 82.6% 385 22 24 Link Ratio Method 22 3,856 82.3% 18 (3) 15 0.3%

2013 / 2 (1,255) 39 30 (1,093) - Link Ratio Method 39 5,810 127.4% (1,222) 44 35 Link Ratio Method 44 5,784 126.7% 31 (5) 26 0.7%

2014 / 1 (207) 255 227 (207) - BF Method 227 4,162 99.4% 218 452 425 BF Method 425 3,938 92.9% 423 (198) 225 6.5%

2014 / 2 112 2,142 103.0%

Total (1,566) 329 294 (855) - 415 233,286 (1,256) 545 510 518 230,841 518 (215) 303

2013 / 2 & Prior (1,359) 75 68 (648) - 76 226,982 (1,474) 93 85 93 226,903 95 (17) 78




I

Ont

Ex

nterestR

tarioRSP

xhibitC

RateSens

ActR

P

sitivity



O


Exhibit C

page 1 of 1


Summary of Interest Rate Sensitivity

$ Format: $000s

Actuarial Present Value of Provisions at Various Discount Rates ‐ Dec. 31, 2014 projected Unpaid

AY 0.71% 1.21% 1.71% 1.74% 2.21% 2.71% 3.21% 3.71%

2001 &

prior 17,857 17,571 17,294 17,276 17,025 16,763 16,511 16,262

2002 2,911 2,824 2,742 2,737 2,663 2,588 2,516 2,447

2003 4,822 4,669 4,524 4,515 4,386 4,254 4,128 4,008

2004 4,014 3,887 3,768 3,761 3,654 3,546 3,443 3,346

2005 4,189 4,075 3,967 3,960 3,865 3,768 3,676 3,589

2006 16,436 16,012 15,613 15,588 15,234 14,874 14,533 14,209

2007 12,956 12,659 12,377 12,359 12,110 11,856 11,616 11,387

2008 30,209 29,558 28,943 28,905 28,358 27,801 27,273 26,771

2009 57,818 56,643 55,531 55,462 54,465 53,462 52,499 51,585

2010 112,628 110,351 108,197 108,063 106,142 104,181 102,322 100,530

2011 125,278 122,951 120,747 120,631 118,665 116,650 114,746 112,920

2012 204,396 201,044 197,860 197,657 194,816 191,888 189,086 186,422

2013 259,110 254,736 250,529 250,264 246,538 242,648 238,914 235,353

2014 300,335 294,783 289,487 289,156 284,401 279,547 274,834 270,283

Total 1,152,959 1,131,763 1,111,579 1,110,334 1,092,322 1,073,826 1,056,097 1,039,112

valuation prior val

assumption assumption

Dollar Impact Relative to Valuation Assumption

AY 0.71% 1.21% 1.71% 1.74% 2.21% 2.71% 3.21% 3.71%

Total 41,380 20,184 ‐ (1,245) (19,257) (37,753) (55,482) (72,467)

valuation prior val


Percentage Impact Relative to Valuation Assumption

AY 0.71% 1.21% 1.71% 1.74% 2.21% 2.71% 3.21% 3.71%

2001 &

prior 3.3% 1.6% ‐ (0.1%) (1.6%) (3.1%) (4.5%) (6.0%)

2002 6.2% 3.0% ‐ (0.2%) (2.9%) (5.6%) (8.2%) (10.8%)

2003 6.6% 3.2% ‐ (0.2%) (3.1%) (6.0%) (8.8%) (11.4%)

2004 6.5% 3.2% ‐ (0.2%) (3.0%) (5.9%) (8.6%) (11.2%)

2005 5.6% 2.7% ‐ (0.2%) (2.6%) (5.0%) (7.3%) (9.5%)

2006 5.3% 2.6% ‐ (0.2%) (2.4%) (4.7%) (6.9%) (9.0%)

2007 4.7% 2.3% ‐ (0.1%) (2.2%) (4.2%) (6.1%) (8.0%)

2008 4.4% 2.1% ‐ (0.1%) (2.0%) (3.9%) (5.8%) (7.5%)

2009 4.1% 2.0% ‐ (0.1%) (1.9%) (3.7%) (5.5%) (7.1%)

2010 4.1% 2.0% ‐ (0.1%) (1.9%) (3.7%) (5.4%) (7.1%)

2011 3.8% 1.8% ‐ (0.1%) (1.7%) (3.4%) (5.0%) (6.5%)

2012 3.3% 1.6% ‐ (0.1%) (1.5%) (3.0%) (4.4%) (5.8%)

2013 3.4% 1.7% ‐ (0.1%) (1.6%) (3.1%) (4.6%) (6.1%)

2014 3.7% 1.8% ‐ (0.1%) (1.8%) (3.4%) (5.1%) (6.6%)

Total 3.7% 1.8% ‐ (0.1%) (1.7%) (3.4%) (5.0%) (6.5%)

valuation prior val


file: 01a RSP ON pd emerge & apv 2014 Q3 v01b (c‐curr dsct curr mfad).xlsmFA Actuarial printed: 11:20 AM, 11/17/2014

Clai

Ont

Ex

imsDeve

tarioRSP

xhibitD

elopment

ActR

P

tMargins


s


O


Exhibit D

MfADs

Page 1 of 1Facility AssociationMargins Table (for Bulletin)

$ Format: $000s

RSP Ontarioas at: 2014m09 use margins as at 2014m12

Emerge: Paid to Ultimate

Current Valuation as at Sep. 30, 2014Selected Margins for Adverse Development

Accident Half Year

Bodily InjuryProperty Damage

Direct Comp Property Damage

Third Party Liability

AccBen (indivis)Uninsured Automobile

Accident Benefits

Underinsured Motorist

Collision (w All Perils)

Comprehensive (w Spec Perils)

Other Coverages Total

1993 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1993 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1994 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1994 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1995 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1995 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1996 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1996 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1997 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 9.1% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1997 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1998 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1998 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1999 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1999 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2000 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2000 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 7.1% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2001 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2001 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2002 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2002 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2003 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2003 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2004 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2004 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2005 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2005 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2006 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2006 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 8.3% 10.0%

2007 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.9% 10.0%

2007 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 9.9% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 8.6% 10.0%

2008 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.5% 10.0%

2008 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2009 / 1 12.5% 10.0% 5.0% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 5.0% 5.0% 11.7% 12.5%

2009 / 2 12.5% 10.0% 5.0% 12.4% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 5.0% 5.0% 8.5% 12.4%

2010 / 1 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 5.0% 5.0% 14.1% 15.0%

2010 / 2 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 5.0% 5.0% 14.5% 15.0%

2011 / 1 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 18.5% 20.0%

2011 / 2 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 19.1% 20.0%

2012 / 1 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 19.3% 20.0%

2012 / 2 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 17.7% 20.0%

2013 / 1 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 19.9% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 17.0% 19.9%

2013 / 2 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 17.9% 20.0%

2014 / 1 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 19.8% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 12.0% 19.8%

2014 / 2 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 19.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 6.9% 19.0%

2015 / 1 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0%

2015 / 2 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0%

prem liab 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 16.6% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.5% 16.5%

discount rate: 1.71%

margin (basis points): 50

File: 01a RSP ON pd emerge & apv 2014 Q3 v01b (c‐curr dsct curr mfad).xlsmFA Actuarial Printed: 11/17/2014 11:22 AM

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Ont ario RSP Ex hibit A Summ luation Selection Changes over … · 2014-11-27 · Loss Ra Compar Selected Compar a priori (same as (same as (same as Ont Ex vernmen y of Nom tios over