ONGC, 1Q FY 2014

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Quarterly highlights (Standalone)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY2014 1QFY2013 % chg (yoy) 4QFY2013 % chg (qoq)Net sales 19,218 20,084 (4.3) 21,389 (10.1)EBITDA 8,488 11,130 (23.7) 10,734 (20.9)

EBITDA margin 44.2 55.4 (1125)bp 50.2 (602)bp

Adj. PAT 4,016 6,078 (33.9) 5,239 (23.3)Source: Company, Angel Research

For 1QFY2014, ONGCs top-line and profitability were lower than our estimates due

to higher than expected subsidy burden. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock.Top-line declines due to lower crude realization: ONGCs top-line decreased by4.3% yoy to `19,218cr (below our expectation of `20,285cr). Its crude oil net

realization decreased by 13.8% yoy to US$40.2/bbl whereas gas realization

increased 4.7% yoy to 8.5/scm due to INR depreciation against the USD. Crude

oil sales volume however was flat yoy at 5.9mn tonne while gas sales volume

declined 3.6% yoy to 4.9bcm. The company shared a subsidy burden of

`12,622cr in 1QFY2014.

EBITDA decreases on higher operating costs: EBITDA declined by 23.7% yoydue to higher employee costs and EBITDA margin contracted by 1,125bp yoy to

44.2%. The companys depreciation and write-off expenses increased by 22.0%

yoy to `3,901cr; hence the adjusted PAT declined by 33.9% yoy to `4,016cr.

ONGC cuts production estimates: ONGC has cut its oil production guidance by4.7% to 27.2mn tonne and gas production guidance by 4.8% to 25.2bcm for

FY2014. For FY2015, it expects oil production of 28.3mn tonne and gas

production of 26.9bcm.

Outlook and valuation: We remain positive on ONGC from a long-termperspective due to potential reserve accretion from its large exploration and

production (E&P) acreage. Further, we expect the government to progressively raise

diesel prices during CY2013 and CY2014, which is expected to result in lower

subsidy burden for ONGC. Also, a concrete subsidy-sharing formula by the

government could make ONGCs cash flows more predictable. The stock is currently

trading at an inexpensive PE valuation of 8.3x FY2014E and 7.2x FY2015E earnings.Hence, we recommend a Buy rating on the stock with a SOTP target price of `352.Key financials (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ENet sales 147,286 162,386 169,963 196,050% chg 25.2 10.3 4.7 15.3

Net profit 28,143 24,221 28,582 33,087% chg 25.3 (13.9) 18.0 15.8

OPM (%) 32.9 27.0 35.3 36.6

EPS (`) 32.9 28.3 33.4 38.7P/E (x) 8.5 9.8 8.3 7.2

P/BV (x) 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2

RoE (%) 24.9 16.8 17.7 18.2

RoCE (%) 20.2 16.1 18.2 19.5

EV/Sales (x) 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 4.5 5.1 3.5 2.6

Source: Company, Angel Research: Note CMP as of 12th August 2013

BUYCMP `278

Target Price `352

Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

Net debt (` cr) (28,836)

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 69.2

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 10.7

FII / NRIs / OCBs 6.4Indian Public / Others 13.7

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (5.8) 7.9 4.8

ONGC (15.4) (0.6) (12.3)

Oil & Gas

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (` cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

Face Value (`)

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

5

18,947

5,612

ONGC.BO

ONGC@IN

237,543

0.9

354/249

336,181

Bhavesh ChauhanTel: 022 - 3935 7800 Ext: 6821

[email protected]

Vinay RachhTel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6841

[email protected]

ONGCPerformance Highlights

1QFY2014 Result Update | Oil & Gas

August 13, 2013

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ONGC | 1QFY2014 Result Update

August 13, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:1QFY2014 performance (Standalone)

Particulars (` cr) 1QFY2014 1QFY2013 % chg (yoy) 4QFY2013 % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (yoy)Net sales 19,218 20,084 (4.3) 21,389 (10.1) 162,386 147,286 10.3Total operating expenditure 10,730 8,954 19.8 10,655 0.7 118,576 98,848 20.0EBITDA 8,488 11,130 (23.7) 10,734 (20.9) 43,810 48,438 (9.6)EBITDA Margin (%) 44.2 55.4 50.2 27.0 32.9

Other Income 1,196 1,038 15.2 1,245 (4.0) 5,518 4,824 14.4

Depreciation 3,901 3,198 22.0 7,126 (45.3) 12,100 13,165 (8.1)

Interest - 29 - 485 435 11.5

Exceptional items - - - - (3,141)

PBT 5,784 8,942 (35.3) 4,853 19.2 36,743 42,803 (14.2)PBT Margin (%) 30.1 44.5 22.7 22.6 29.1

Total Tax 1,768 2,864 (38.3) 1,464 20.7 12,752 14,375 (11.3)

% of PBT 30.6 32.0 30.2 34.7 33.6

PAT 4,016 6,078 (33.9) 3,389 18.5 24,221 28,143 (13.9)Adj. PAT 4,016 6,078 (33.9) 5,239 (23.3) 24,221 31,284 (22.6)PAT Margin (%) 20.9 30.3 24.5 14.9 21.2

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:1QFY2014 Actual vs Estimates

(` cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)Total operating income 19,218 20,285 (5.3)

EBITDA 8,488 11,278 (24.7)

EBITDA Margin (%) 44.2 55.6 (1143)bp

Adj.PAT 4,016 5,532 (27.4)


Top-line declines due to lower crude realization: ONGCs top-line decreased by4.3% yoy to `19,218cr (below our expectation of `20,285cr). Its crude oil net

realization decreased by 13.8% yoy to US$40.2/bbl whereas gas realization

increased 4.7% yoy to 8.5/scm due to INR depreciation against the USD. Crude oil

sales volume however was flat yoy at 5.9mn tonne while gas sales volume declined

3.6% yoy to 4.9bcm. The company shared a subsidy burden of `12,622cr in

1QFY2014.

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August 13, 2013 3

Exhibit 3:Operating revenue growth trend


EBITDA decreases on higher operating costs: The company reported an EBITDAdecline of 23.7% yoy due to higher employee costs, which included an item of

employee pension scheme as per the revised ICAI guidelines and higher other

expenses. The EBITDA margin also contracted by 1,125bp yoy to 44.2%.

Exhibit 4:Operating performance trend


Higher depreciation drags PAT: The companys depreciation and write-offexpenses increased by 22.0% yoy to `3,901cr due to higher dry wells write-off.

Hence the adjusted PAT declined by 33.9% yoy to `4,016cr.

(2.5)

16.8

24.0

(12.5)

15.8

13.7

(4.3)

(15.0)

(10.0)

(5.0)

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

15,000

18,000

21,000

24,000

3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14

(%)

(`cr)

Operating revenues Operating revenues growth (RHS)

61.0 61.5

55.4

52.4

54.0

50.2

44.2

35.0

38.0

41.0

44.0

47.0

50.0

53.0

56.0

59.0

62.0

65.0

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000


(%)

(`cr)

Operating Profit Operating Margins (RHS)

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August 13, 2013 4

Exhibit 5:PAT growth trend


ONGC cuts production estimates: ONGC has cut its oil production guidance by4.7% to 27.2mn tonne and gas production guidance by 4.8% to 25.2bcm for

FY2014. For FY2015, it expects oil production of 28.3mn tonne and gas

production of 26.9bcm.

(49.2)

102.3

48.4

(31.8)

54.6

(7.2)

(33.9)

(60.0)

(40.0)

(20.0)

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000


(%)

(`cr)

Adj. PAT Adj. PAT growth (RHS)

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August 13, 2013 5

Investment arguments

Gas volumes expected to boost valuation: ONGC aims to increase gas productionfrom North Tapti, B193 and 28 cluster, B22 cluster WO series cluster, B46 cluster,

cluster 7 and B series. As far as oil is concerned, ONGCs existing oil fields have

matured. Thus, production from these fields is declining. Nevertheless, the

Management expects incremental oil production from marginal fields (including

D1 extension), which will help arrest the decline in crude production.

OVLs volume story intact:We expect a robust volume growth from ONGC Videsh(OVL), which aims to increase its production at a CAGR of 7.0% over FY2013-15

with incremental productions from Myanmar, Sakhalin-1 and Venezuela coming

on stream. Moreover, any increase in crude oil or gas price would improve OVLs

margins, as it does not share under-recoveries.

Diesel price hike could re-rate the stock: The government has recently indicated astaggered diesel price hike during CY2013-14 in order to lower under-recoveries.

We expect oil marketing companies to undertake small price hikes

(`0.40-0.50/litre) progressively over the coming two years which is expected to

lower under-recoveries significantly by FY2015. Further diesel price hikes could

re-rate the stock gradually in our view.

Outlook and valuation

We remain positive on ONGC from a long-term perspective due to potential

reserve accretion from its large exploration and production (E&P) acreage. Further,

we expect the government to progressively raise diesel prices during CY2013 andCY2014, which is expected to result in lower subsidy burden for ONGC. Also, a

concrete subsidy-sharing formula by the government could make ONGCs cash

flows more predictable. The stock is currently trading at an inexpensive valuation

of 8.3x FY2014E and 7.2x FY2015E PE. Hence, we recommend a Buy rating onthe stock with a SOTP target price of `352.Exhibit 6:SOTP valuation

Particulars (` cr) `/shareONGC Standalone(DCF) 255

OVL(Oil- EV/boe $14x Gas Ev/Boe $5x) 52

Investment Value(80% mkt Value) 17

Total EV 322Net debt (30)

Equity value (`) 352Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 7:Key assumptions (Standalone)

Particulars FY2014E FY2015ESale of crude oil (MMT) 24.0 24.0

Net realisations (US$/bbl) 52 54


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August 13, 2013 6

Exhibit 8:Angel EPS forecast vs consensus (Consolidated)

Angel Forecast Bloomberg Consensus Variation (%)FY2014E 33.4 32.9 1.5FY2015E 38.7 40.5 (4.5)


Exhibit 9: Recommendation summary

Company CMP TP Reco. Mcap Upside P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)(`) (`) (` cr) (%) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

ONGC 278 352 Buy 237,543 27 8.3 7.2 1.4 1.2 3.5 2.6 17.7 18.2 18.2 19.5RIL 845 - Neutral 275,884 - 11.7 11.0 1.2 1.1 6.9 6.6 12.3 11.8 8.7 8.5

GAIL 300 - Neutral 38,764 - 9.1 9.0 1.4 1.2 4.1 3.8 15.9 14.4 16.8 15.3

CAIRN 301 364 Buy 58,478 21 4.8 5.2 1.0 0.9 2.6 2.3 22.6 17.8 21.8 17.4

Source: Angel Research

Exhibit 10: One-year forward P/E


50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan-0

7

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-0

8

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-0

9

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-1

0

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-1

1

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-1

2

Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-1

3

Apr-13

Jul-13

Shareprice(`)

4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

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August 13, 2013 7

Company background

ONGC is the third largest oil and gas exploration and production company in the

world and ranks 23rd among leading global energy majors. Its primary business

includes exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas, LPG

and other value-added petroleum products.ONGC has 2P reserves of 1,025mtoe

of hydrocarbon reserves, indicating a reserve life of 17 years. The company has

also set up a subsidiary, OVL, for overseas oil exploration and production. OVL

has 2P reserves of 199mtoe indicating a reserve life of 21 years.

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August 13, 2013 8

Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ETotal operating income 101,755 117,611 147,286 162,386 169,963 196,050% chg (2.7) 15.6 25.2 10.3 4.7 15.3Total Expenditure 56,805 69,174 98,848 118,576 109,964 124,299

Net Raw Materials 25,339 31,251 46,314 60,609 56,208 52,125

Other Mfg costs 16,321 19,685 33,646 36,780 34,109 31,631

Personnel 1,407 1,716 1,696 2,459 2,280 2,114

Other 13,738 16,523 17,192 18,728 17,368 38,428

EBITDA 44,949 48,436 48,438 43,810 59,999 71,751% chg 4.0 7.8 0.0 (9.6) 37.0 19.6

(% of Net Sales) 44.2 41.2 32.9 27.0 35.3 36.6

Depreciation& Amortization 18,719 20,628 13,165 12,100 21,452 26,452

EBIT 26,230 27,808 35,273 31,710 38,547 45,300% chg (5.6) 6.0 26.8 (10.1) 21.6 17.5

(% of Net Sales) 25.8 23.6 23.9 19.5 22.7 23.1

Interest & other Charges 1,102 437 435 485 682 681

Other Income 5,273 6,946 4,824 5,518 5,687 5,801

(% of PBT) 17.3 20.2 12.2 15.0 13.1 11.5

Recurring PBT 30,401 34,316 39,662 36,743 43,552 50,419% chg (2.2) 12.9 15.6 (7.4) 18.5 15.8

Adj. related to prior period (40) - - - - -

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - (3,141) - - -

PBT (reported) 30,441 34,316 42,803 36,743 43,552 50,419Tax 10,714 11,491 14,375 12,752 15,115 17,498

(% of PBT) 35.2 33.5 33.6 34.7 34.7 34.7

PAT (reported) 19,728 22,825 28,428 23,991 28,437 32,921Add: Share from asso. 7.8 3.0 (1.1) 3.7 10.8 11.5

Less: Minority interest (MI) 332 372 284 (226) (134) (155)

PAT after MI (reported) 19,404 22,456 28,143 24,221 28,582 33,087ADJ. PAT 19,404 22,456 31,284 24,221 28,582 33,087% chg (2.3) 15.7 39.3 (22.6) 18.0 15.8

(% of Net Sales) 19.1 19.1 21.2 14.9 16.8 16.9

Basic EPS (`) 22.7 26.2 32.9 28.3 33.4 38.7Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 22.7 26.2 32.9 28.3 33.4 38.7% chg (2.0) 15.7 25.3 (13.9) 18.0 15.8

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August 13, 2013 9

Balance Sheet (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 2,139 4,278 4,278 4,278 4,278 4,278Preference Capital - - - - - -

Reserves& Surplus 99,268 111,049 132,161 147,441 166,612 188,577

Shareholders Funds 101,407 115,327 136,439 151,719 170,890 192,855Minority Interest 1,643 1,989 2,208 1,979 1,835 1,669

Total Loans 6,267 6,061 15,223 10,862 10,862 10,862Deferred Tax Liability 10,291 11,176 12,204 12,204 12,204 12,204

Other Long Term Liabilities - 973 1,080 1,080 1,080 1,080

Long Term Provisions - 23,185 24,149 24,149 24,149 24,149

Total Liabilities 137,067 158,713 191,303 201,993 221,019 242,818APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 193,300 166,132 180,674 205,674 217,674 230,674

Less: Acc. Depreciation 117,757 82,077 89,129 101,230 122,682 149,134

Net Block 75,543 84,055 91,545 104,444 94,992 81,540Capital Work-in-Progress 25,616 34,760 49,698 39,283 49,283 59,283

Goodwill 9,539 8,993 7,798 7,798 7,798 7,798

Investments 5,159 3,100 2,921 2,921 2,921 2,921Defered tax assets - 24 19 19 19 19

Long term loans and adv. - 8,688 8,103 8,103 8,103 8,103

Site Restoration find deposit - 8,126 9,475 9,475 9,475 9,475

Other non-current assets - 1,130 2,920 2,920 2,920 2,920

Current Assets 50,566 44,193 59,190 68,606 88,331 114,866Cash 22,384 20,816 27,890 36,778 55,965 81,951

Loans & Advances 12,057 4,012 4,931 4,931 4,931 4,931

Other 16,125 19,365 26,370 26,897 27,435 27,984

Current liabilities 30,198 34,356 40,347 41,558 42,804 44,088Net Current Assets 20,369 9,837 18,843 27,048 45,527 70,777Mis. Exp. not written off 841 - - - - -

Total Assets 137,067 158,713 191,303 201,993 221,019 242,818

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August 13, 2013 10

Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 30,441 34,313 42,804 36,743 43,552 50,419

Depreciation 8,863 11,353 12,919 12,100 21,452 26,452(Incr)/ Decr in Misc Exp (264) - - - - -

Change in Working Capital (473) (14,168) (7,050) 683 709 735

Less: Other income - (2,593) (7,072) (5,518) (5,687) (5,801)

Others (2,300) 30,696 17,034 - - -

Direct taxes paid (7,748) (10,517) (11,881) (12,752) (15,115) (17,498)

Cash Flow from Operations 28,783 49,085 46,754 31,256 44,911 54,307(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (21,253) (19,704) (39,176) (14,585) (22,000) (23,000)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (2,249) (4,347) 179 - - -

(Inc.)/ Dec. in loans and adv. 532 (798) (15) - - -

Other income - - - 5,518 5,687 5,801

Others 1,868 (7,360) 10 - - -

Cash Flow from Investing (21,102) (32,209) (39,002) (9,066) (16,313) (17,199)Issue of Equity 287 - - - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans (304) 40 3,191 (4,361) - -

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (8,078) (11,789) (8,521) (8,941) (9,411) (11,122)

Others 109 80 5,432 - - -

Cash Flow from Financing (8,273) (11,670) 102 (13,302) (9,411) (11,122)Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (592) 5,206 7,854 8,906 19,187 25,986

Opening Cash balances 22,588 14,722 20,017 27,872 36,778 55,965Closing Cash balances 21,997 20,017 27,872 36,778 55,965 81,951

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August 13, 2013 11

Key Ratios

Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 12.3 10.6 8.5 9.8 8.3 7.2P/CEPS 6.2 5.5 5.8 6.5 4.8 4.0

P/BV 2.3 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2

Dividend yield (%) 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 4.0 4.7

EV/Sales 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.8

EV/EBITDA 4.9 4.5 4.5 5.1 3.5 2.6

EV/Total Assets 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8

Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 22.7 26.2 32.9 28.3 33.4 38.7

EPS (fully diluted) 22.7 26.2 32.9 28.3 33.4 38.7

Cash EPS 44.6 50.4 48.3 42.5 58.5 69.6

DPS 8.3 8.5 9.0 9.5 11.0 13.0

Book Value 119 135 159 177 200 225

Dupont Analysis (%)EBIT margin 25.8 23.6 23.9 19.5 22.7 23.1

Tax retention ratio 64.8 66.5 66.4 65.3 65.3 65.3

Asset turnover (x) 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2

ROIC (Post-tax) 15.5 14.6 15.6 12.6 15.2 18.2

Operating ROE 15.5 14.6 15.6 12.6 15.2 18.2

Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 19.9 18.8 20.2 16.1 18.2 19.5

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 31.2 28.9 32.5 26.5 31.9 41.7

ROE 20.0 20.7 24.9 16.8 17.7 18.2

Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9

Inventory / Sales (days) 27 28 29 29 29 29

Receivables (days) 26 27 27 28 28 28

Payables (days) 137 134 131 132 132 132

WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) (4) (20) (25) (21) (22) (20)

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.2) (0.3) (0.4)

Net debt to EBITDA (0.5) (0.4) (0.3) (0.7) (0.8) (1.0)Interest Coverage (EBIT/Int.) 23.8 63.6 81.1 65.4 56.5 66.5

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August 13 2013 12

Research Team Tel: 022 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMERThis document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment

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Disclosure of Interest Statement ONGC

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Documents

ONGC, 1Q FY 2014