12
 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report  1  Quarterly Data (Standalone)  (` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 % chg (yoy) 4QFY13 % chg (qoq) Revenue 6,458 8,439 (23.5) 19,204 (66.4) EBITDA 389 1,202 (67.7) 4,651 (91.6) EBITDA margin (%) 6.0 14.2 (823) 24.2 (1,820) PAT 465 921 (49.5) 3,238 (85.6)  Source: Compan y, Angel Research For 1QFY2014, BHEL reported a disappointing performance, with top-line and bottom-line coming in below our estimates as well as street expectations. Top-line declined sharply by 23.5% yoy to ` 6,458cr (vs our estimate of ` 8,186cr and street estimate of  ` 8,005cr). Power segment declined by 20.6% yoy to  ` 5,379cr while industry segment declined by 34.4% yoy to ` 1,293cr, due to slow moving orders. Slow moving orders include Bajaj Hindustan, Surana Power, Abhijeet Power, Monet Ispat and Kohinoor Power among others where delay in payments and project clearances at customer ends has led to delay in booking revenues. Consequently, OPM contracted by 823bp yoy to 6.0% and PAT declined by 49.5% yoy to ` 465cr (vs our estimate of  ` 804cr and street estimate of  ` 790cr). Declining order intake and backlog: For 1QFY2014, order intake declined sharply by 73.7% yoy to ` 1,469cr. Further,  ` 1,200cr worth of order from Iraq awarded in FY2011 got cancelled during the quarter. Consequently, total order backlog declined by 18.3% yoy to ` 108,600cr by the end of the quarter, thus implying an order book coverage of ~2.3x, which has been continuously deteriorating over the last couple of years. The Management has indicated order visibility of 15GW in FY2014. However, considering the headwinds in the power sector, delays in finalization of orders and execution cannot be ruled out. Outlook and valuation: Given the strong competition (domestic as well as international), declining order book, and a weak capex cycle, we expect BHEL’s profit, margin and ROE to decline from the current levels. Hence, the cheaper valuations of 7.4x FY2014E EPS and 8.7x FY2015E EPS are largely overshadowed by structural issues plaguing the company. We continue to remain Neutral on the stock. Key financials (Consolidated) Y/E March ( ` cr) FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E Net sales 48,355 48,916 43,140 39,692 % chg 13.7 1.2 (11.8) (8.0) Adj. net profit 7,087 6,689 4,939 4,188 % chg 17.1 (5.6) (26.2) (15.2) EBITDA (%) 20.6 19.4 16.8 15.9 EPS ( ` ) 29.0 27.3 20.2 17.1 P/E (x) 5.2 5.5 7.4 8.7 P/BV (x) 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.4 RoE (%)  49.5 37.6 23.1 17.2 RoCE (%)  29.2 23.6 16.1 13.2 EV/Sales (x) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 3.0 3.3 4.2 4.9  Source: Company, Ang el Research; Note: C MP as of August 2, 2013  NEUTRAL CMP  ` 149 Target Price - Investment Period - Stock Info Sector Net Debt (  ` cr) (5,227) Bloomberg Code BHEL@IN Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 67. 7 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 12.2 FII / NRIs / OCBs 15.2 Indian Public / Others 4. 8  Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex ( 2.9) 11.0 6.0 BHEL ( 22.1)(32. 2) (69.5) Capital Goods Market Cap (  ` cr) 36,567 Beta 1.2 52 Week High / L ow 272/120  Avg. Daily Volume 484,909 Face Value (  ` ) 2 BSE Sensex 19, 164 Nif ty 5,678 Reuters Code BHEL.BO  Amit Patil 022-39357800 Ext: 6839 [email protected] BHEL Performance Highlights 1QFY2014 Result Update | Capital Goods  August 5, 201 3

BHEL, 1Q FY 2014

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report  1

 

Quarterly Data (Standalone) (` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 % chg (yoy) 4QFY13 % chg (qoq)

Revenue 6,458 8,439 (23.5) 19,204 (66.4)

EBITDA 389 1,202 (67.7) 4,651 (91.6)

EBITDA margin (%) 6.0 14.2 (823) 24.2 (1,820)

PAT 465 921 (49.5) 3,238 (85.6)

 Source: Company, Angel Research 

For 1QFY2014, BHEL reported a disappointing performance, with top-line and

bottom-line coming in below our estimates as well as street expectations. Top-line

declined sharply by 23.5% yoy to ` 6,458cr (vs our estimate of ` 8,186cr and street

estimate of ` 8,005cr). Power segment declined by 20.6% yoy to  ` 5,379cr while

industry segment declined by 34.4% yoy to ` 1,293cr, due to slow moving orders.

Slow moving orders include Bajaj Hindustan, Surana Power, Abhijeet Power, Monet

Ispat and Kohinoor Power among others where delay in payments and project

clearances at customer ends has led to delay in booking revenues. Consequently, OPM

contracted by 823bp yoy to 6.0% and PAT declined by 49.5% yoy to ` 465cr (vs our

estimate of ` 804cr and street estimate of ` 790cr).

Declining order intake and backlog:

For 1QFY2014, order intake declined sharply by 73.7% yoy to  ` 1,469cr. Further,

 ` 1,200cr worth of order from Iraq awarded in FY2011 got cancelled during the

quarter. Consequently, total order backlog declined by 18.3% yoy to ` 108,600cr

by the end of the quarter, thus implying an order book coverage of ~2.3x, which

has been continuously deteriorating over the last couple of years. The

Management has indicated order visibility of 15GW in FY2014. However,

considering the headwinds in the power sector, delays in finalization of orders and

execution cannot be ruled out.

Outlook and valuation: Given the strong competition (domestic as well as

international), declining order book, and a weak capex cycle, we expect BHEL’s

profit, margin and ROE to decline from the current levels. Hence, the cheaper

valuations of 7.4x FY2014E EPS and 8.7x FY2015E EPS are largely overshadowed by structural issues plaguing the company. We continue to remain Neutral on the stock.

Key financials (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

Net sales 48,355 48,916 43,140 39,692

% chg 13.7 1.2 (11.8) (8.0)

Adj. net profit 7,087 6,689 4,939 4,188

% chg 17.1 (5.6) (26.2) (15.2)

EBITDA (%) 20.6 19.4 16.8 15.9

EPS (`) 29.0 27.3 20.2 17.1

P/E (x) 5.2 5.5 7.4 8.7

P/BV (x) 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.4

RoE (%)  49.5 37.6 23.1 17.2

RoCE (%)  29.2 23.6 16.1 13.2

EV/Sales (x) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 3.0 3.3 4.2 4.9

 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of August 2, 2013 

NEUTRALCMP  ` 149

Target Price -

Investment Period -

Stock Info

Sector

Net Debt ( ` cr) (5,227)

Bloomberg Code BHEL@IN

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 67.7

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 12.2

FII / NRIs / OCBs 15.2Indian Public / Others 4.8

 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (2.9) 11.0 6.0

BHEL (22.1) (32.2) (69.5)

Capital Goods

Market Cap ( ` cr) 36,567

Beta 1.2

52 Week High / Low 272/120

 Avg. Daily Volume 484,909

Face Value ( ` ) 2

BSE Sensex 19,164

Nifty 5,678

Reuters Code BHEL.BO

 

Amit Patil

022-39357800 Ext: 6839

[email protected]

BHEL

Performance Highlights

1QFY2014 Result Update | Capital Goods

 August 5, 2013

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 BHEL | 1QFY2014 Result Update

 August 5, 2013  2

Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance (Standalone)

(` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 % chg (yoy) 4QFY13 % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (yoy)

Net Sales 6,353 8,326 (23.7) 18,850 87.7 47,618 47,230 0.8

Other operating income 106 113 (6.4) 354 - 807 794 1.6Total income 6,458 8,439 (23.5) 19,204 87.9 48,425 48,024 0.8

Stock adjustments 152 (527) 967 116 (823)

Raw Material 3,482 5,385 (35.3) 9,662 72.9 27,240 28,240 (3.5)

(% of total income) 0.0 57.6 55.3 56.3 58.8

Employee Cost 1,475 1,395 5.7 1,439 0.1 5,753 5,466 5.3

(% of total income) 0.0 16.5 7.5 11.9 11.4

Other Expenses 961 984 (2.4) 2,485 76.0 5,927 5,244 13.0

(% of total income) 0.0 11.7 12.9 12.2 10.9

Total Expenditure 6,070 7,237 (16.1) 14,553 69.5 39,035 38,127 2.4

EBITDA 389 1,202 (67.7) 4,651 184.6 9,389 9,898 (5.1)

(EBITDA %) 6.0 14.2 24.2 19.4 20.6

Interest 28 6  402.9 41 (20.4) 125 51 144.5

Depreciation 231 228 1.1 289 31.4 953 801 19.1

Other Income 538 366  47.0 292 (12.0) 1,122 1,256 (10.7)

PBT 669 1,335 (49.9) 4,614 172.1 9,432 10,302 (8.4)

(% of total income) 10.4 15.8 24.0 19.5 21.5

Total Tax 203 414 (50.9) 1,377 167.9 2,818 3,262 (13.6)

(% of PBT) 30.4 31.0 29.8 5.8 6.8

PAT (Reported) 465 921 (49.5) 3,238 173.9 6,615 7,039 (6.0)

(% of total income) 7.2 10.9 16.9 13.7 14.7

EPS (`)* 1.9 3.8 (49.5) 13.2 173.9 27.0 28.8 (6.0)

 Source: Company, Angel Research.* Note: Adjusted for stock split

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 BHEL | 1QFY2014 Result Update

 August 5, 2013  3

Top-line below expectations

For 1QFY2014, BHEL reported a disappointing performance, with top-line and

bottom-line coming in below our estimates as well as street expectations. The

top-line declined sharply by 23.5% yoy to  ` 6,458cr (vs our estimate of  ` 8,186cr

and street estimate of  ` 8,005cr). The power segment declined by 20.6% yoy to

 ` 5,379cr while industry segment declined by 34.4% yoy to  ` 1,293cr, due to slow

moving orders. Slow moving orders include Bajaj Hindustan, Surana Power,

 Abhijeet Power, Monet Ispat and Kohinoor Power among others where delay in

payments and project clearances at customer ends has led to delay in booking

revenues.

Exhibit 2: Top-line trend

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Segment-wise performance

Y/E March (` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 % chg (yoy) 4QFY13 % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (yoy)

Revenue

Power 5,379 6,772 (20.6) 15,539 (65.4) 39,577 37,863  4.5

Industry 1,293 1,972 (34.4) 4,341 (70.2) 10,604 11,659 (9.0)

Total Revenue 6,671 8,744 (23.7) 19,880 (66.4) 50,181 49,522 1.3

EBIT

Power 759 1,206 (37.1) 4,062 (81.3) 8,559 8,184  4.6

Industry 131 413 (68.3) 936 (86.0) 2,197 3,342 (34.3)

Total EBIT 890 1,620 (45.1) 4,998 (82.2) 10,756 11,526 (6.7)

Revenues mix (%)

Power 80.6 77.5 78.2 78.9 76.5

Industry 19.4 22.5 21.8 21.1 23.5

EBIT Margin (%)

Power 14.1 17.8 26.1 21.6 21.6

Industry 10.1 21.0 21.6 20.7 28.7

Total 13.3 18.5 25.1 21.4 23.3

 Source: Company, Angel Research

   7 ,   2

   7   1

   1   0 ,   5

   4   6

   1   0 ,   7

   4   3

   1   9 ,   5

   8   9

   8   4   3   9

   1   0   5   6   2

   1   0   2   2   0

   1   9   2   0   4

   6   4   5   8

10.2

24.219.1

7.5 16.1

0.2(4.9)

(2.0)

(23.5)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

24,000

   1   Q   F   Y   1   2

   2   Q   F   Y   1   2

   3   Q   F   Y   1   2

   4   Q   F   Y   1   2

   1   Q   F   Y   1   3

   2   Q   F   Y   1   3

   3   Q   F   Y   1   3

   4   Q   F   Y   1   3

   1   Q   F   Y   1   4

Sales (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %)

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 BHEL | 1QFY2014 Result Update

 August 5, 2013  4

Exhibit 4: Power segment revenue and growth 

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 5: Industry segment revenue and growth 

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Sharp contraction in margins

BHEL’s blended margins contracted by 823bp yoy to 6.0% impacted by sharp

decline in revenues. The Power segment’s margin contracted 371bp yoy to 14.1%

while the industry segment’s margins contracted by 1083bp yoy to 10.1%.

Consequently, Net profit declined by 49.5% yoy to ` 466cr.

 With the headwinds in power sector, over-capacity in BTG space and intense

competition, we expect BHEL’s margin to decline sharply by 300-400bp over the

next two years.

Exhibit 6: Segment EBIT Margin

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 7: Blended EBITDA margins

 Source: Company, Angel Research

   5 ,   7

   8   0

   7 ,   7

   9   7

   8 ,   7

   1   1

   1   5 ,   5

   7   4

   6 ,   7

   7   2

   8 ,   9

   5   8

   8 ,   3

   0   8

   1   5 ,   5

   3   9

   5 ,   3

   7   9

7.610.5

58.3 2.8

17.2 14.9 (4.6)

(0.2)

(20.6)

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

3040

50

60

70

-

3,500

7,000

10,500

14,000

17,500

   1   Q   F   Y   1   2

   2   Q   F   Y   1   2

   3   Q   F   Y   1   2

   4   Q   F   Y   1   2

   1   Q   F   Y   1   3

   2   Q   F   Y   1   3

   3   Q   F   Y   1   3

   4   Q   F   Y   1   3

   1   Q   F   Y   1   4

Power (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %)

   1 ,   6

   5   3

   2 ,   9

   6   0

   2 ,   3

   6   7

   4 ,   6

   7   9

   1 ,   9

   7   2

   2 ,   0

   5   5

   2 ,   2

   3   7

   4 ,   3

   4   1

   1 ,   2

   9   3

19.1

78.2

(37.3)

26.1

19.3 (30.6)

(5.5)

(7.2)

(34.4)

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

-

800

1,600

2,400

3,200

4,000

   1   Q   F   Y   1   2

   2   Q   F   Y   1   2

   3   Q   F   Y   1   2

   4   Q   F   Y   1   2

   1   Q   F   Y   1   3

   2   Q   F   Y   1   3

   3   Q   F   Y   1   3

   4   Q   F   Y   1   3

   1   Q   F   Y   1   4

Industry (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %)

   1   6 .   5

   1   6 .   9

   1   9 .   0

   2   7 .   4

   1   7 .   8

   1   9 .   7

   1   8 .   3

   2   6 .   1

   1   4 .   1

   2   2 .   6

   2   7 .   0

   3   1 .   6

   3   0 .   4

   2   1 .   0

   2   1 .   3

   1   8 .   3

   2   1 .   6

   1   0 .   1

0

6

12

18

24

30

36

   1   Q   F   Y   1   2

   2   Q   F   Y   1   2

   3   Q   F   Y   1   2

   4   Q   F   Y   1   2

   1   Q   F   Y   1   3

   2   Q   F   Y   1   3

   3   Q   F   Y   1   3

   4   Q   F   Y   1   3

   1   Q   F   Y   1   4

   (   %   )

Power segment EBITM Industry segment EBITM

1,113

1,959 2,080

4,937

1202

18991634

4651

389

15.3

18.6 19.4

25.2

14.2

18.016.0

24.2

6.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

   1   Q   F   Y   1   2

   2   Q   F   Y   1   2

   3   Q   F   Y   1   2

   4   Q   F   Y   1   2

   1   Q   F   Y   1   3

   2   Q   F   Y   1   3

   3   Q   F   Y   1   3

   4   Q   F   Y   1   3

   1   Q   F   Y   1   4

EBITDA (` cr, LHS) EBITDAM (%, RHS)

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 BHEL | 1QFY2014 Result Update

 August 5, 2013  5

Order inflow declines sharply due to order cancellation

For 1QFY2014, order intake declined sharply by 73.7% yoy to  ` 1,469cr. Further,

 ` 1,200cr worth of order from Iraq awarded in FY2011 got cancelled during the

quarter. Consequently, total order backlog declined by 18.3% yoy to ` 108,600crby the end of the quarter, thus implying an order book coverage of ~2.3x, which

has been continuously deteriorating over the last couple of years. The

Management has indicated order visibility of 15GW in FY2014. However,

considering the headwinds in the power sector, delays in finalization of orders and

execution cannot be ruled out.

Exhibit 8: Declining Order Book 

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 9: Order book to sales (x)

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 10: Orders Backlog

Order details Value (` Cr)

Power 89,417

Industrial Segment 10,883

Exports 8,392

Total order baklog* 108,600 

 Source: Company, Angel Research * Note: Total order backlog adjusted for Inter-segmental orders

Outlook 

Deteriorating dynamics in the BTG space: The recent trend in biddings and project

wins indicates that BHEL’s leadership position is under threat, thus hinting at a loss

in its market share going ahead. Further, given the structural issues faced by thepower sector, times look tough for the BTG players.

Stock to remain under pressure: BHEL is trading at historically low valuations of

7.4x and 8.7x on FY2014E and FY2015E EPS estimates respectively, owing to 1)

weak order inflow; 2) weak investment capex due to a high interest rate regime,

which could take more time to gather momentum than earlier anticipated; and 3)

changing competitive dynamics in the BTG space with strong capacity additions.

 We believe these concerns are far from over and hence, expect the stock to remain

under pressure.

Valuation: Given the strong competition (domestic as well as international),

declining order flows and a weak capex cycle, we expect BHEL’s profit margin andROE to decline from the current levels. Hence, the cheaper valuations of 7.4x and

8.7x on FY2014E and FY2015E EPS respectively, are largely overshadowed by 

structural issues plaguing the company. We continue to remain Neutral on the stock.

   1   5   9 ,   6

   3   9

   1   6   1 ,   0

   4   6

   1   4   6 ,   5

   4   1

   1   3   5 ,   0

   0   0

   1   3   2 ,   9

   0   0

   1   2   2 ,   3

   0   0

   1   1   3 ,   7

   0   0

   1   1   5 ,   1

   6   0

   1   0   8   6   0   0

7.94.8

(7.0)(17.8)

(16.7)

(24.1)(22.4)

(14.7)(18.3)

(30)

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

-

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

200,000

   1   Q   F   Y   1   2

   2   Q   F   Y   1   2

   3   Q   F   Y   1   2

   4   Q   F   Y   1   2

   1   Q   F   Y   1   3

   2   Q   F   Y   1   3

   3   Q   F   Y   1   3

   4   Q   F   Y   1   3

   1   Q   F   Y   1   4

Order Backlog (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS)

4.3 4.2 4.13.9

3.73.6

3.1

2.82.7

2.52.3 2.4 2.3

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

   1   Q   F   Y   1   1

   2   Q   F   Y   1   1

   3   Q   F   Y   1   1

   4   Q   F   Y   1   1

   1   Q   F   Y   1   2

   2   Q   F   Y   1   2

   3   Q   F   Y   1   2

   4   Q   F   Y   1   2

   1   Q   F   Y   1   3

   2   Q   F   Y   1   3

   3   Q   F   Y   1   3

   4   Q   F   Y   1   3

   1   Q   F   Y   1   4

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 BHEL | 1QFY2014 Result Update

 August 5, 2013  6

Exhibit 11: One year forward PE Band Chart

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 12: Peer comparison

Company Reco. CMP Tgt. price Upside P/BV(x) P/E(x) FY2013-15E RoE (%)

(`)  (`)  (%)  FY14E  FY15E  FY14E  FY15E  EPS CAGR  FY14E  FY15E 

 ABB* Reduce 483 461 (4.5) 3.8 3.7 41.9 28.5 61.6 9.3 13.1

BHEL Neutral 149 - - 1.6 1.4 7.4 8.7 (20.9) 23.1 17.2

BGR Energy Neutral 80 - - 0.4 0.4 3.7 3.3 3.6 22.3 20.3

Crompton Greaves Buy 83 117  41.3 1.4 1.2 12.5 9.3 - 11.4 14.0

Jyoti Structures Neutral 15 - - 0.2 0.2 3.4 2.4 17.7 5.5 7.4

KEC International Buy 27 40  48.1 0.6 0.5 4.5 3.2 83.5 20.2 23.0

Thermax Neutral 594 - - 3.3 2.9 20.7 18.1 10.7 17.2 17.3

 Source: Company, Angel Research Note:* denotes December ending financials of a company

Company Background

BHEL is the largest manufacturer of power equipment (boiler and turbine

generators) in India. The company operates in two segments - power and industry.

Sets produced by BHEL account for ~66% of India's installed power capacity,

which generate ~70% of India's power. Notably, BHEL is the first domestic

company to foray into the supercritical technology.

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Share Price (`) 4x 8x 12x 16x

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Profit & loss statement (Consolidated) 

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E

Total Income  33,653 42,538 48,355 48,916 43,140 39,692

% chg   24.6 26.4 13.7 1.2 (11.8) (8.0)Net Raw Materials  19,626 22,767 27,734 27,626 24,633 22,624

Other Mfg costs  1,612 5,744 5,121 5,983 5,651 5,200

Personnel 6,590 5,453 5,530 5,824 5,608 5,557

Other - - - - - -

Total Expenditure 27,828 33,963 38,385 39,433 35,893 33,381

EBITDA  5,825 8,575 9,971 9,483 7,248 6,311

% chg  39.8 47.2 16.3 (4.9) (23.6) (12.9)

(% of Net Sales) 17.3 20.2 20.6 19.4 16.8 15.9

Depn & Amort.  339 478 803 957 848 950

EBIT  5,486 8,097 9,167 8,525 6,400 5,361

% chg   41.2 47.6 13.2 (7.0) (24.9) (16.2)

(% of Net Sales) 16.3 19.0 19.0 17.4 14.8 13.5

Interest & other Charges  37 56 53 128 108 112

Other Income 1,165 1,027 1,272 1,129 1,025 955

(% of PBT)  17.6 11.3 12.3 11.8 14.0 15.4

Others  7.2 (1.8) (19.1) - - -

Recurring PBT  6,621 9,066 10,367 9,527 7,317 6,204

% chg  36.9 36.9 14.4 (8.1) (23.2) (15.2)

Extraord. Exp/(Inc.)  - - - (4.1) - -

PBT (reported)  6,621 9,066 10,367 9,531 7,317 6,204

Tax  2,294 3,012 3,280 2,838 2,378 2,016

(% of PBT)  34.6 33.2 31.6 29.8 32.5 32.5

PAT (reported)  4,327 6,053 7,087 6,693 4,939 4,188

 Add: earnings of associate  - - - - - -

Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - -

Prior period items - - - - - -

PAT after MI (reported)  4,327 6,053 7,087 6,693 4,939 4,188

ADJ. PAT 4,327 6,053 7,087 6,689 4,939 4,188

% chg  38.9 39.9 17.1 (5.6) (26.2) (15.2)

(% of Net Sales) 12.9 14.2 14.7 13.7 11.4 10.6

Basic EPS (`)  17.7 24.7 29.0 27.3 20.2 17.1Fully Diluted EPS (̀ ) 17.7 24.7 29.0 27.3 20.2 17.1

% chg 38.9 39.9 17.1 (5.6) (26.2) (15.2)

Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with previous year numbers

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Balance Sheet (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Equity Share Capital 490 490 490 490 490 490Preference Capital - - - - - -

Reserves& Surplus 15,406 19,666 24,914 30,043 33,418 36,042

Shareholders Funds 15,896 20,155 25,403 30,532 33,907 36,531

Minority Interest - - 5 5 5 5

Total Loans 148 196 369 2,624 1,726 1,526

Deferred Tax Liability (1,529) (2,165) (1,549) (1,556) (1,556) (1,756)

Other long term liablities 9,171 7,567 5,811 5,111 2,561

Total Liabilities 14,516 27,357 31,794 37,416 39,194 38,868

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross Block 6,858 8,344 10,017 11,201 12,675 14,084

Less: Acc. Depreciation 4,249 4,734 5,499 6,215 7,063 8,013

Net Block 2,609 3,610 4,519 4,986 5,612 6,071

Capital Work-in-Progress 1,552 1,757 1,763 1,949 1,876 1,867

Goodwill - - - - - -

Investments 6 11 6 6 6 6

Current Assets 43,002 44,677 50,048 52,441 49,740 49,218

Cash 9,856 9,707 6,734 7,845 8,209 6,996

Loans & Advances 2,662 3,504 3,105 3,054 2,847 2,620

Other 407 310 152 303 314 328

Current liabilities 32,656 30,095 34,086 32,780 28,854 29,108

Net Current Assets 10,346 14,581 15,961 19,660 20,886 20,110

Other non CA 2 7,398 9,545 10,814 10,814 10,814

Total Assets 14,516 27,357 31,794 37,416 39,194 38,868 

Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with previous year numbers

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Cashflow (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

Profit before tax 6,621 9,066 10,367 9,527 7,317 6,204

Depreciation 339 547 806 957 848 950(Inc)/Dec in Working Capital (2,403) (4,385) (8,523) (5,860) (1,562) (3,186)

Less: Other income 833 647 837 1,129 1,025 955

Direct taxes paid 2,021 2,942 3,197 2,838 2,378 2,016

Others (241) 654 462.9 4 - -

Cash Flow from Operations 1,463 2,292 (921) 661 3,200 996

(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets (1,752) (1,691) (1,680) (1,370) (1,400) (1,400)

(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments - (5) 5 - - -

Other income 1,165 1,027 1,272 1,129 1,025 955

Cash Flow from Investing (587) (669) (402) (241) (375) (445)

Issue of Equity - - - - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans (18) 48 172 2,255 (897) (200)

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 1,332 1,821 1,821 1,564 1,564 1,564

Others - - - - - -

Cash Flow from Financing (1,350) (1,773) (1,649) 691 (2,461) (1,764)

Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (474) (150) (2,972) 1,111 364 (1,212)

Opening Cash balances 10,330 9,856 9,707 6,734 7,845 8,209

Closing Cash balances 9,856 9,707 6,734 7,845 8,209 6,996 

Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with previous year numbers

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Key Ratios

Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

Valuation Ratio (x)

P/E (on FDEPS) 8.5 6.0 5.2 5.5 7.4 8.7P/CEPS 7.8 5.6 4.6 4.8 6.3 7.1

P/BV 2.3 2.9 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.4

Dividend yield (%) 3.1 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.7 3.7

EV/Sales 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8

EV/EBITDA 4.6 3.2 3.0 3.3 4.2 4.9

EV/Total Assets 1.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8

OB/Sales 4.2 3.8 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.4

Per Share Data (`)

EPS (Basic) 17.7 24.7 29.0 27.3 20.2 17.1

EPS (fully diluted) 17.7 24.7 29.0 27.3 20.2 17.1

Cash EPS 19.1 26.7 32.2 31.2 23.6 21.0

DPS 4.7 6.4 6.4 5.5 5.5 5.5

Book Value 64.9 52.1 64.8 80.6 94.3 105.1

DuPont Analysis

EBIT margin (%) 16.3 19.0 19.0 17.4 14.8 13.5

Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

 Asset turnover (x) 7.5 3.3 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.2

ROIC (Post-tax) (%) 80.3 41.6 27.0 20.7 13.6 10.9

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) (%) 15.2 21.8 12.8 6.0 3.4 4.7

Leverage (x) (0.6) (0.7) (0.4) (0.3) (0.3) (0.2)

Operating RoE (%) 40.5 26.9 21.3 16.8 10.7 9.6

Returns (%)

RoCE (Pre-tax) 37.7 35.5 29.2 23.6 16.1 13.2

 Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) 176.3 71.4 42.8 31.6 21.4 17.2

RoE 30.0 42.3 49.5 37.6 23.1 17.2

Turnover ratios (x)

 Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 5.4 5.5 5.2 4.6 3.6 3.0

Inventory / Sales (days) 93 87 91 102 102 102

Receivables (days) 200 176 219 255 250 255

Payables (days) 332 395 437 431 425 420

 WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) (8) 23 53 79 104 119Solvency ratios (x)

Net debt to equity (0.6) (0.7) (0.4) (0.3) (0.3) (0.2)

Net debt to EBITDA (1.7) (1.1) (0.6) (0.6) (0.9) (0.9)

Int. coverage (EBIT / Int.) 149.5 143.6 172.6 66.8 59.2 47.8

Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with previous year numbers

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Research Team Tel: 022 – 3935 7600 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement BHEL

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)