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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Quarterly highlights (Standalone)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 % chg (yoy) 4QFY13 % chg (qoq)Net sales 2,871 2,840 1.1 3,204 (10.4)EBITDA 1,971 2,302 (14.4) 2,156 (8.6)

% margin 68.7 81.0 (1238)bp 67.3 139bp

Adj. PAT 1,638 1,906 (14.1) 1,871 (12.4)Source: Company, Angel Research

NMDC reported better than expected 1QFY2014 results both on top-line

and profitability front due to better-than-expected realizations. WemaintainBuy on the stock due to its inexpensive valuations.Robust operational performance: NMDCs net sales increased by 1.1% yoy to`2,871cr (above our estimates of `2,695cr) mainly due to higher volumes

which increased 6.8% yoy to 7.3mn tonne, although the same was partially

offset by lower realizations. Iron ore realization decreased 5.6% yoy to

`3,904/tonne, but it was above our estimate.

EBITDA/tonne slumps on lower realizations: The EBITDA/tonne decreased by19.8% yoy to `2,715 due to lower realizations. The companys depreciation

expenses grew by 10.9% yoy to `36cr and there was an exceptional item of

`66cr relating to penalty and contribution towards the Special PurposeVehicle (SPV) created for Karnataka illegal mining cases. Excluding this

exceptional item, the adjusted net profit decreased by 14.1% yoy to `1,638cr

(above our estimate of `1,540cr).

Outlook and valuation: NMDCs stock price has corrected sharply over the pastone year. Nevertheless, a strong balance sheet, presence in sellers market (iron

ore), low cost of production, high-grade mines, long mine life and high dividend

yield (7.0% at CMP) make NMDC an attractive bet at the current levels. Valuingthe stock at 3.5x FY2015E EV/EBITDA, we derive a fair price of `123 andrecommend Buy on the stock.Key financials (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ENet sales 11,261 10,704 10,718 11,514% chg (1.0) (4.9) 0.1 7.4

Net profit 7,266 6,342 6,136 6,383% chg 11.8 (12.7) (3.2) 4.0

FDEPS (`) 18.3 16.0 15.5 16.1OPM (%) 79.3 68.9 66.6 64.5

P/E (x) 5.5 6.2 6.5 6.2

P/BV (x) 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2

RoE (%) 33.3 24.4 21.2 20.0RoCE (%) 40.1 27.7 24.1 22.7

EV/Sales (x) 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.3

Source: Company, Angel Research: Note: CMP as of August 7, 2013

BUYCMP `100

Target Price `123

Investment Period 12 months

Stock Info

Sector

Net Debt (`cr) (20,512)

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 80.0

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 11.5

FII / NRIs / OCBs 4.9Indian Public / Others 3.7

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (6.2) 6.0 2.9

NMDC (23.0) (45.4) 6.0

Face Value (`)

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

39,627

1.1

201/93

412,981

Mining

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (`cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

1

18,665

5,519

NMDC.BO

NMDC@IN

Bhavesh ChauhanTel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6821

[email protected]

Vinay RachhTel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6841

[email protected]

NMDCPerformance Highlights

1QFY2014 Result Update | Mining

August 8, 2013

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NMDC| 1QFY2014 Result Update

August 8, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:1QFY2014 performance (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 yoy % 4QFY13 qoq % FY2013 FY2012 yoy %Net Sales 2,871 2,840 1.1 3,204 (10.4) 10,704 11,261 (4.9)Raw Material 28 (5) - (65) (143.1) 184 23 711.3% of net sales 1.0 (0.2) (2.0) 1.7 0.2

Consumption of stores & spares 62 54 15.0 100 (38.5) 289 257 12.6

% of net sales 2.2 1.9 3.1 2.7 2.3

Staff Cost 148 135 9.7 161 (8.1) 580 529 9.6

% of net sales 5.2 4.8 5.0 5.4 4.7

Other Expenditure 661 354 86.9 852 (22.4) 871 406 114.4

% of net sales 23.0 12.5 26.6 8.1 3.6

Total Expenditure 899 538 67.1 1,048 (14.2) 3,326 2,336 42.4

% of net sales 31.3 19.0 32.7 31.1 20.7

Operating Profit 1,971 2,302 (14.4) 2,156 (8.6) 7,378 8,925 (17.3)OPM% 68.7 81.0 67.3 68.9 79.3

Other Operating Income - - - - -

EBIDTA 1,971 2,302 (14.4) 2,156 (8.6) 7,378 8,925 (17.3)EBITDA margins (%) 68.7 81.0 67.3 68.9 79.3

Interest - - - 13 - 13 12 6.5

Depreciation 36 33 10.9 39 (6.0) 139 130 6.4

Other Income 521 552 (5.7) 547 (4.8) 2,226 2,016 10.4

Exceptional Items (66.0) - (406.0) - -

Profit before Tax 2,390 2,821 (15.3) 2,245 6.4 9,465 10,811 (12.4)% of net sales 83.2 99.3 70.1 88.4 96.0

Tax 818 915 (10.7) 780 4.8 3,123 3,494 (10.6)

% of PBT 34.2 32.4 34.8 33.0 32.3

Adjusted net profit 1,638 1,906 (14.1) 1,871 (12.4) 6,342 7,266 (12.7)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:1QFY2014 Actual vs Angel estimates(` cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)Net sales 2,871 2,695 6.5

EBITDA 1,971 1,806 9.2

EBITDA margin (%) 68.7 67.0 167bp

PAT 1,638 1,540 6.4


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August 8, 2013 3

Result highlights

Volumes jump 6.8% yoy

NMDCs net sales increased by 1.1% yoy to `2,871cr (above our estimate of`2,695cr) mainly due to higher volumes which increased 6.8% yoy to 7.3mn

tonne. However, its realizations decreased 5.6% yoy to `3,904/tonne.

Exhibit 3:Sales volume increases 6.8% yoy


Exhibit 4:Realization decreased by 5.6% yoy


Exhibit 5:Net sales increased by 1.1% yoy


EBITDA/tonne decreased by 19.8% yoy

The companys EBITDA decreased by 14.4% yoy to `1,971cr. However, the

EBITDA margin contracted 1,238bp yoy to 68.7%. EBITDA/tonne decreased by

19.8% yoy to `2,715 due to lower realizations.

6.9

7.6

6.4 6.56.8

5.95.3

8.2

7.3

(30)

(20)

(10)0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

1

23

4

5

6

7

8

9

1QFY12 3QFY12 1QFY13 3QFY13 1QFY14

(%)

(mntonnes)

Sales volumes % yoy (RHS)

4,015

4,030

4,394

3,982

4,136

4,442

3,820

3,843

3,904

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

3,500

3,600

3,7003,800

3,900

4,000

4,100

4,200

4,300

4,400

4,500


(%)

(`/tonne)

Average realization % yoy (RHS )

(40.0)

(30.0)

(20.0)

(10.0)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14

(%)

(`cr)

Net revenue (LHS) yoy change (RHS)

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August 8, 2013 4

Exhibit 6:EBITDA/tonne decreased by 19.8% yoy


Exhibit 7:EBITDA margin stood at 68.7%


Net profit declined by 14.1% yoy

The companys depreciation expenses grew by 10.9% yoy to `36cr and there was

an exceptional item of `66cr relating to penalty and contribution towards the

Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) created for Karnataka illegal mining cases. Other

income declined by 5.7% yoy to `521cr and tax rate was also higher at 34.2%

in 1QFY2014 compared to 32.4% in 1QFY2013. Consequently, the adjusted

net profit decreased by 14.1% yoy to `1,638cr (above our estimate of

`1,540cr).

Exhibit 8:Net margin stood at 57.1%


3,268 3,214

3,532

3,062

3,385 3,307

2,615 2,6162,715

(30)

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000


(%)

(`/tonne)

EBITDA/tonne % yoy (RHS)

81.079.5 80.1

76.1

81.0

74.167.9

67.3 68.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000


(%)

(`cr)

EBIT DA (LHS ) EBITD A margin (RH S)

64.764.1

65.9 65.367.1

64.363.1

58.4

57.1

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500


(`

cr)

Net profi t (LHS) Net profi t margin (RHS)

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August 8, 2013 5

Investment rationale

Steady production volume growth during FY2013-15NMDC aims to ramp up its production capacity to 48mn tonne by FY2015E(current capacity 32mn tonne) through increased exploration of its existing mines

and development of new mines, ie Bailadila 11/B, Kumaraswamy and Deposit 10

& 11/A. However, given the anticipated low steel demand, we forecast iron ore

sales volumes to increase to 30mn tonne by FY2015. We expect sales volumes to

grow by 6.9% and 7.1% yoy in FY2014 and FY2015, respectively.

Exhibit 9:Iron ore capacity expansion plans


High dividend yield likely to act as cushion to share priceDuring FY2013, NMDC has stepped up its dividend payout to 44% (17% in

FY2012) despite a 12.7% decline in EPS during FY2013. Given the cash-rich

balance sheet, high visibility on operating cash flows, and limited capex on mine

development, we opine that stepping up dividend payout is a right strategy by the

company; it augurs well for minority shareholders implying a dividend yield of

6.8% at CMP. Further, with cash balance of `21,025cr (as on March 31, 2013),

we expect dividend of `7/share to continue during FY2014-15.

Seeking to diversify into steel making

The Management intends to diversify its operations by moving downstream

through establishing steel plants and pellet plants. Accordingly, the company aims

to build an integrated 3mn tonne steel plant in Jagdalpur, Chhattisgarh. Land

acquisition for the same is nearly complete, which gives comfort as land

acquisition has been a major bottleneck to greenfield projects in recent times.

However, we believe the steel project is not likely to be value accretive to NMDC in

the initial period of operations.

32

48

7

72

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Current Bai ladi la 11/B Kumaraswamy Dep. 10, 11/A Total

(mntonnes)

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August 8, 2013 6

Exhibit 10:Chhattisgarh steel project statusCapacity 3mn tonne per year

Capex `15,525cr

Land Total land required: 1,934 acres. Total land acquired: 1,932 acres.Balance land is under allotment process.

Date ofcompletion

42 months from Zero date i.e., receipt of all statutoryclearance/approvals and placement of orders.Targeted completion period FY2015


Outlook and valuation

NMDCs stock price has corrected sharply over the past one year. Nevertheless, a

strong balance sheet, presence in sellers market (iron ore), low cost of production,

high-grade mines, long mine life and high dividend yield (7.0% at CMP) makeNMDC an attractive bet at the current levels. Valuing the stock at 3.5x FY2015EEV/EBITDA, we derive a fair price of `123 and recommend Buy on the stock.Exhibit 11:Key assumptions

FY2014E FY2015ESales volume (mn tonne) 28 30

Average realization (US$/tonne) 3,519 3,569

Source: Angel Research

Exhibit 12:EPS Angel forecast vs consensusYear (`) Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%)FY2014E 15.5 15.3 1.2

FY2015E 16.1 16 (0.6)

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 13:EV/EBITDA band


0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Apr-10 Dec-10 Aug-11 Apr-12 Dec-12 Aug-13

(`

cr)

5x 8x 11x 17x 14x

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August 8, 2013 7

Exhibit 14:P/E band


Exhibit 15:P/BV band


Exhibit 18: Recommendation summary

Companies CMP Target Reco. Mcap Upside P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)(`) price (`) (` cr) (%) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

Sesa Goa 130 162 Buy 11,315 25 4.8 4.4 0.6 0.5 31.8 14.3 12.9 12.5 1.8 3.6NMDC 100 123 Buy 39,627 23 6.5 6.2 1.3 1.2 2.4 2.3 21.2 20.0 24.1 22.7Coal India 263 - Neutral 165,962 - 10.4 9.7 2.5 2.2 4.3 3.6 33.3 33.1 19.7 19.7

MOIL 186 248 Buy 3,117 33 8.1 8.0 1.0 0.9 1.7 1.3 13.4 12.4 10.6 9.9


Company background

Incorporated in November 1958, government-owned NMDC is Indias largest iron

ore producer with a capacity of 32mn tonne. The company operates high-grade

iron ore mines at Kirandul and Bacheli in Chhattisgarh and Donimalai in

Karnataka. The average mine life of NMDC is 38 years currently.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


(`)

9x 14x 19x 24x

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700


(`)

2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x

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August 8, 2013 8

Profit & loss statement (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 6,239 11,369 11,261 10,704 10,718 11,514Other operating income - - - - - -Total operating income 6,239 11,369 11,261 10,704 10,718 11,514% chg (17.5) 82.2 (1.0) (4.9) 0.1 7.4

Total Expenditure 1,817 2,722 2,336 3,326 3,577 4,084

Net Raw Materials 211 123 234 105 224 264

Personnel 420 492 529 580 621 652

Other 1,186 2,107 1,573 2,642 2,733 3,168

EBITDA 4,422 8,646 8,925 7,378 7,141 7,430% chg (24.2) 95.5 3.2 (17.3) (3.2) 4.0

(% of Net Sales) 70.9 76.1 79.3 68.9 66.6 64.5

Depreciation & Amort. 73 125 130 139 145 153

EBIT 4,349 8,521 8,794 7,239 6,996 7,277% chg (24.6) 95.9 3.2 (17.7) (3.4) 4.0

(% of Net Sales) 69.7 75.0 78.1 67.6 65.3 63.2

Interest & other Charges - - - - - -

Other Income 862 1,206 2,016 2,226 2,163 2,250

Recurring PBT 5,211 9,727 10,811 9,465 9,159 9,527% chg (21.6) 86.7 11.1 (12.4) (3.2) 4.0

Extraordinary Inc/(Exp.) - - (513.0) - - -

PBT (reported) 5,211 9,727 10,760 9,465 9,159 9,527Tax 1,760 3,228 3,494 3,123 3,022 3,144

(% of PBT) 33.8 33.2 32.5 33.0 33.0 33.0

PAT (reported) 3,451 6,499 7,266 6,342 6,136 6,383ADJ. PAT 3,451 6,499 7,266 6,342 6,136 6,383% chg (21.1) 88.3 11.8 (12.7) (3.2) 4.0

(% of Net Sales) 55.3 57.2 64.5 59.2 57.3 55.4

Basic EPS (`) 8.7 16.4 18.3 16.0 15.5 16.1Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 8.7 16.4 18.3 16.0 15.5 16.1% chg (21.1) 88.3 11.8 (12.7) (3.2) 4.0

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August 8, 2013 9

Balance sheet (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 396 396 396 396 396 396Reserves& Surplus 13,876 18,818 24,010 27,105 29,994 33,130

Shareholders Funds 14,272 19,215 24,406 27,501 30,391 33,527Total Loans - - - - - -

Deferred Tax Liability 85 103 100 100 100 100

Other Long term Liabilties 22 23 23 23 23

Long Term Provisions 15 13 13 13 13

Total Liabilities 14,357 19,354 24,543 27,638 30,528 33,664APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 1,771 2,273 2,388 3,388 3,888 4,388

Less: Acc. Depreciation 984 (1,174) (1,199) (1,338) (1,483) (1,636)

Net Block 787 1,099 1,189 2,050 2,405 2,752Capital Work-in-Progress 561 568 1,494 2,164 4,364 7,064

Goodwill - - - - - -

Investments 76 136 248 248 248 248Long Term Loans and Adv. - 199 512 512 512 512

Other non- current assets - 11 7 7 7 7

Current Assets 14,264 19,086 23,199 24,804 25,185 25,368Cash 12,855 17,228 20,265 21,892 22,277 22,446

Loans & Advances 683 557 1,048 1,048 1,048 1,048

Other 726 1,300 1,886 1,864 1,860 1,875

Current liabilities 1,348 1,744 2,105 2,147 2,194 2,288Net Current Assets 12,916 17,342 21,094 22,657 22,992 23,080Mis. Exp. not written off 17 - - - - -

Total Assets 14,357 19,354 24,543 27,638 30,528 33,664

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August 8, 2013 10

Cash flow statement (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 5,207 9,726 10,760 9,465 9,159 9,527

Depreciation 73 122 184 139 145 153Change in Working Capital 926 (525) (889) 64 50 80

Others (832) (1,144) (1,962) - - -

Direct taxes paid (1,770) (3,318) (3,502) (3,123) (3,022) (3,144)

Cash Flow from Operations 3,604 4,862 4,595 6,545 6,332 6,616Inc./ (Dec.) in Fixed Assets (422) (456) (1,211) (1,670) (2,700) (3,200)

Other income 828 (3,961) 472 - - -

Cash Flow from Investing 407 (4,417) (739) (1,670) (2,700) (3,200)Issue of Equity - - - - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans - - - - - -

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (895) (994) (1,911) (3,247) (3,247) (3,247)

Others - (0) (0.1) - - -

Cash Flow from Financing (895) (994) (1,911) (3,247) (3,247) (3,247)Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 3,115 (550) 1,945 1,628 385 169

Opening Cash balances 9,740 1,648 1,153 3,098 21,892 22,277Closing Cash balances 12,855 1,153 3,098 21,892 22,277 22,446

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August 8, 2013 11

Key ratios

Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 11.5 6.1 5.5 6.2 6.5 6.2P/CEPS 11.2 6.0 5.4 6.1 6.3 6.1

P/BV 2.8 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2

Dividend yield (%) 1.8 3.3 4.5 7.0 7.0 7.0

EV/Sales 4.3 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5

EV/EBITDA 6.0 2.6 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.3

EV / Total Assets 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5

Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 8.7 16.4 18.3 16.0 15.5 16.1

EPS (fully diluted) 8.7 16.4 18.3 16.0 15.5 16.1

Cash EPS 8.9 16.7 18.7 16.3 15.8 16.5

DPS 1.8 3.3 4.5 7.0 7.0 7.0

Book Value 36.0 48.5 61.6 69.4 76.7 84.6

Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 69.7 75.0 78.1 67.6 65.3 63.2

Tax retention ratio (%) 66.2 66.8 67.7 67.0 67.0 67.0

Asset turnover (x) 3.8 6.7 3.7 2.2 1.6 1.2

ROIC (Post-tax) 174.0 333.3 197.7 101.8 69.4 51.4

Cost of Debt (Post Tax)

Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 33.4 50.6 40.1 27.7 24.1 22.7

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 347.9 744.9 444.2 246.6 200.7 192.9

ROE 26.6 38.8 33.3 24.4 21.2 20.0

Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 3.6 5.6 4.8 3.7 2.9 2.8

Inventory / Sales (days) 60 48 68 65 60 50

Receivables (days) 43 15 20 20 20 20

Payables (days) 91 62 68 68 68 68

WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 27 3 15 27 25 21

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity (0.9) (0.9) (0.8) (0.8) (0.7) (0.7)

Net debt to EBITDA (2.9) (2.0) (2.3) (3.0) (3.2) (3.1)Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) - - - - - -

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August 8 2013 12

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement NMDC

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below`

1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

Documents

NMDC, 1Q FY 2014