Simplex Infra, 1Q FY 2014

7/27/2019 Simplex Infra, 1Q FY 2014

1/10

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Quarterly Highlights StandaloneY/E March (` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 4QFY13 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq)Net sales 1,395 1,585 1,486 (12.0) (6.1)Operating profit 151 153 145 (1.6) 3.8

Adjusted Net profit 16 28 18 (43.1) (11.9)Source: Company, Angel Research

For 1QFY2014, Simplex Infrastructures (SINF) reported a mixed set of

numbers which were above our estimates on the profitability front. SINF

reported slow execution due to stagnant order book and delayed payments

from clients; however owing to stellar operational performance earnings

were above our estimate.

Slower execution offset by higher-than-expected operational performance: Onthe top-line front, the company reported a decline of 12.0% yoy to `1,395cr in

1QFY2014, which was 7.8% lower than our estimate. Revenue contribution from

domestic and overseas operations stood at 85% and 15%, respectively, for

1QFY2014. On the operating front, the company reported an EBITDA decline of

1.6% yoy to`151cr in 1QFY2014. Adjusting for the foreign exchange MTM loss

of`3cr, the EBITDA margin stood at 10.8% and was higher than our estimate of

9.4%. The company reported an adjusted PAT of `16cr in 1QFY2014, a decline

of 43.1% yoy which is above our estimate of`14cr. This was mainly owing to the

stellar operational performance during the quarter. However, the high interestexpense at 5.8% of revenues continues to remain a concern.

Outlook and valuation: Simplex has not been performing well on the revenuefront since the last six-seven consecutive quarters due to slow moving orders and

delays in payments from clients. The company has a strong order book

(`15,843cr; 2.8x trailing revenue) and we expect execution to pick up in

2HFY2014. Considering the current order book mix, we estimate revenue and

PAT CAGR of 8.2% and 13.6% respectively over FY2013-15E. Given the recentfall in the stock price, we continue to maintain our Buy rating on the stock, with atarget price of `56, valuing the company at 4x FY2015E earnings.Key financials (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 5,983 5,885 6,226 6,896% chg 24.5 (1.6) 5.8 10.8

Adj.Net Profit 89 53 49 69% chg (28.2) (40.5) (8.3) 40.7

EBITDA (%) 8.9 9.1 9.1 9.0

FDEPS (`) 18.1 10.8 9.9 13.9P/E (x) 2.5 4.2 4.5 3.2

P/BV (x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

RoE (%) 7.8 4.2 3.7 5.0

RoCE (%) 10.7 8.6 8.2 8.8

EV/Sales (x) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4

EV/EBITDA (x) 4.3 5.2 5.2 4.9

OB/Sales (x) 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5

Order Inflows 6,561 6,117 6,954 7,899

% chg (18.2) (6.8) 13.7 13.6

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of August 19, 2013

BUYCMP `45

Target Price `56

Investment Period 12 months

Stock Info

Sector

Net Debt (` cr) 2,630

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 55.0

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 21.3

FII / NRIs / OCBs 12.5Indian Public / Others 11.3

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (9.8) 3.5 (0.5)

Simplex (59.0) (77.7) (90.8)

2

18,308

5,415

SINF.BO

SINF@IN

221

0.9

264/44

1,232

Infrastructure

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (` cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

Face Value (`)

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

Viral Shah022-39357800 Ext: 6842

[email protected]

Simplex InfrastructuresPerformance Highlights

1QFY2014 Result Update | Infrastructure

August 20, 2013


2/10

Simplex Infra | 1QFY2014 Result Update

August 20, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:Quarterly performance (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 4QFY13 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % ChgNet Sales 1,395 1,585 1,486 (12.0) (6.1) 5,821 5,924 (1.7)Total Expenditure 1,245 1,432 1,341 (13.1) (7.2) 5,283 5,390 (2.0)Operating Profit 151 153 145 (1.6) 3.8 538 534 0.7OPM (%) 10.8 9.7 9.8 114bp 104bp 9.2 9.0 23bp

Interest 82 70 77 17.3 6.4 289 228 26.6

Depreciation 50 51 50 (2.5) (0.1) 200 183 9.4

Non Operating Income 6 5 7 11.6 (14.4) 42 18 138.8

Nonrecurring items (3) (8) - (60.4) - - (7) -

Profit Before tax 22 30 25 (26.6) (13.0) 90 133 0.8Tax 9 10 8 (7.4) 25.3 31 44 (30.9)

Net Profit before MI 13 20 18 (36.4) (29.0) 60 89 (33.0)PAT (%) 0.9 1.3 1.2 (35)bp (30)bp 1.0 1.5 (48)bpMinority Interest (MI) - - - - - - -Net Profit after MI 16 28 18 (43.1) (11.9) 60 96 (37.6)Adj. PAT (%) 1.1 1.8 1.2 (62)bp (8)bp 1.0 1.6 (59)bp

Adj. FDEPS 3.2 5.6 3.6 (43.1) (11.9) 12.1 19.4 (37.6)Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:1QFY2014 Actual vs Estimates

(` cr) Estimates Actual Variation (%)Net Sales 1,514 1,395 (7.8)

EBITDA 142 151 5.9

EBITDAM (%) 9.4 10.8 97bp

Interest and Financial Charges 81 82 0.6

Adj. PAT 14 16 16.8

Source: Company, Angel Research

Execution disappoints

On the top-line front, the company reported a decline of 12.0% yoy to`1,395cr in

1QFY2014, which was 7.8% lower than our estimates. The slow execution was

mainly due to (a) liquidity issues faced by the clients (mainly from real estate

segment) and (b) stretched working capital cycle. Revenue contribution from

domestic and overseas operations stood at 85% and 15%, respectively, for

1QFY2014.

The Management has maintained its guidance for a revenue growth of ~10% and

order inflows in the range of`6,500-7,500cr for the full year. On the back healthy

order inflows in 1QFY2014 and huge order bidding pipeline, we believe the

company would be able to meet its guidance in terms of order inflows.


3/10


August 20, 2013 3

Exhibit 3:Execution performance disappoints


Exhibit 4:Revenue mix (1QFY2014, %)


Slower execution and high interest cost hurt profitabilityOn the operating front, the company reported an EBITDA decline of 1.6% yoy to

`151cr in 1QFY2014. Adjusting for the foreign exchange MTM loss of `3cr, the

EBITDA margin stood at 10.8% and is higher than our estimate of 9.4%. The

company reported an adjusted PAT of`16cr in 1QFY2014, a decline of 43.1% yoy

which however is above our estimate of `14cr. This was mainly owing to stellar

operational performance during the quarter. However, the high interest expense at

5.8% of revenues continues to remain a concern.

Exhibit 5:EBITDAM improves


Exhibit 6:Slower execution hurts profitability


Order book analysis

The company secured orders worth`1,685cr in 1QFY2014, thus taking the order

book to `15,843cr (excluding L1 orders of ~`4,200cr), indicating a growth of

2.2% yoy. This converts into an order book-to-sales ratio of 2.8x trailing revenues.

Going forward, we expect the domestic segment to drive revenue growth, which

constitutes 92% of the total order book.

1,

569

1,

796

1,

585

1,

398

1,

352

1,

486

1,

395

34.531.3

28.1

5.7

(13.9)(17.2)

(12.0)

(20.0)

(10.0)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14

Sales (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS)

21

25

101

5

28

11

Buildings

Roads &BridgesIndustrial

Marine

Pilling

Power

Urban Infra

132

156

153

119

130

145

151

8.4 8.7

9.78.5

9.6 9.8

10.8

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180


EBITDA (`cr, LHS) EBITDAM (%, RHS)

21

26

28

13

12

18

16

1.41.4

1.8

0.9 0.9

1.21.1

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


PAT (` cr, LHS) PATM (%, RHS)


4/10


August 20, 2013 4

Exhibit 7:Order inflows Segment wise (%)


Exhibit 8:Order backlog Segment wise (%)


Outlook and valuation

SINF has not been performing well on the revenue front since the last 6-7

consecutive quarters due to slow moving orders and delays in payments from

clients. However, the company has a strong order book (`15,843cr; 2.8x trailing

revenue) and we believe execution should pick up in 2HFY2014. The Management

has guided for a revenue growth of ~10% in FY2014; it expects order inflows to

be in the range of`6,500-7,500cr in FY2014. We believe the company would be

able to meet its guidance in terms of order inflows. Further, SINF is a

well-diversified player in terms of sectors, geographies and client mix, and has

limited exposure to road BOT assets unlike its peers.

On the back of current order book mix we estimate a revenue and PAT CAGR of

8.2% and 13.6% over FY2013-15E. Given the recent fall in the stock price wecontinue to maintain our Buy rating on the stock, with a target price of `56,valuing the company at 4x FY2015E earnings.

Investment argument

Diversified play

SINF is one of the oldest infrastructure companies in India (over eight decades of

work log). Since inception, the company has been involved in different segments of

the infrastructure sector, from piling (1924) to power (1960), to roads, railways

and bridges (1980), and the real estate business (2007). The company has

executed ~2,400 projects and is currently involved in >150 ongoing projects in

India and abroad. This reflects the company's execution capabilities, and ability to

successfully execute complex and numerous projects on time. The company is also

well spread geographically, with a presence in the Middle-Eastern countries of

Qatar, Oman, Dubai and Abu Dhabi and is now venturing into newer

geographies such as Bangladesh. In terms of its client profile, SINF has a healthy

mix of government and private sector projects. This successful diversification has

not only provided the company the experience of executing different and complex

projects but has also qualified it to bid for bigger ticket-size projects going ahead.

27

19

11

43

Buildings

Bridges

Pilling

Urban Infra

24

327

3

3

18

212 Buildings

Bridges

Industrial

Marine

Pilling

Power

Rail

Urban Infra


5/10


August 20, 2013 5

Exhibit 9:Recommendation summary

Company CMP TP Rating Top-line (` cr) EPS (`) P/E (x) OB/FY12 FY13E FY14E CAGR (%) FY12 FY13E FY14E CAGR (%) FY12 FY13E FY14E Sales (x)

ABL 48 60 Buy 1,853 1,912 2,131 7.2 5.3 5.0 5.5 1.3 9.0 9.6 8.8 2.2CCCL 6 - Neutral 1,931 2,281 2,492 13.6 (3.3) 0.7 2.0 - (1.9) 9.2 3.1 2.2

IRB Infra 69 106 Buy 3,687 3,805 4,248 7.3 16.7 15.0 15.8 (3.0) 4.1 4.6 4.4 2.1

ITNL 122 156 Buy 6,645 7,423 7,970 9.5 26.8 30.3 31.9 9.2 4.6 4.0 3.8 2.2

IVRCL 10 - Neutral 3,759 5,673 5,892 8.4 (3.3) (1.7) (2.0) - - - - 4.6

JP Assoc. 31 41 Buy 13,415 12,946 14,897 5.4 2.5 1.2 2.7 4.1 12.5 25.1 11.5 -

L&T 738 1,002 Buy 60,873 66,532 74,520 10.6 44.8 46.9 52.2 8.0 16.5 15.7 14.1 2.5

NCC 19 27 Buy 5,725 6,044 6,533 6.8 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.4 7.8 8.0 7.5 3.2

Punj Lloyd 23 - Neutral 11,408 12,726 14,226 11.7 (0.2) 0.9 1.0 - - 27.0 22.7 1.8

Sadbhav 65 99 Buy 1,811 2,462 2,731 22.8 0.9 5.9 6.7 177.2 75.0 11.0 9.8 4.9

Simplex In. 45 56 Buy 5,897 6,237 6,908 8.2 10.8 9.9 13.9 13.6 4.2 4.5 3.2 2.8Unity Infra 18 - Neutral 2,040 2,146 2,339 7.1 12.5 9.3 9.6 (12.4) 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.9


Exhibit 10:SOTP breakup

Company Core Const. Real Estate Road BOT Invst. In Subsidiaries Others Total` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP `

ABL 18 30 - - 42 70 - - - - 60

CCCL 16 100 - - - - - - - - 16

IRB Infra 30 28 - - 76 72 - - - - 106

ITNL 58 37 - - 98 63 - - - - 156IVRCL 6 32 - - - - 13 68 - - 19

JP Assoc. 15 37 15 37 - - - - 11 27 41

L&T 731 73 - - - - 271 27 - - 1,002

NCC 13 48 - - 7 26 - - 7 26 27

Punj Lloyd 44 100 - - - - - - - - 44

Sadbhav 24 24 - - 75 76 - - - - 99

Simplex In. 56 100 - - - - - - - - 56Unity Infra 27 100 - - - - - - - - 27


Company background

SINF is one of the oldest construction companies in India, based in Kolkata. Over

the years, it has diversified across various segments to encash upon the untapped

opportunities emerging in the construction business and has delivered on an

excellent track record. The company is present across eight segments buildings

(24% of order book), bridges (13%), industrial (7%), marine (1%), pilling (3%),

power (18%), rail and roads (21%) and urban infrastructure (12%).


6/10


August 20, 2013 6

Profit & loss statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 4,552 4,808 5,983 5,885 6,226 6,896Other operating income 12 16 26 12 11 12Total operating income 4,564 4,824 6,010 5,897 6,237 6,908% chg (3.1) 5.7 24.6 (1.9) 5.8 10.8

Total Expenditure 4,110 4,333 5,477 5,361 5,672 6,286R.M. consumed 1,856 1,705 2,306 2,252 2,310 2,572

Construction expenses 580 250 293 252 274 303

Employee expenses 1,472 1,711 1,972 2,015 2,217 2,439

SG&A 202 668 907 841 872 972

EBITDA 454 491 532 536 565 621% chg 12.5 8.1 8.5 0.7 5.3 10.1

(% of Net Sales) 9.9 10.2 8.9 9.1 9.1 9.0

Depreciation & Amortisation 157 167 189 206 213 226

EBIT 297 324 344 330 352 396% chg 9.2 9.1 6.1 (4.0) 6.7 12.5

(% of Net Sales) 6.5 6.7 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.7

Interest & other Charges 122 148 231 290 330 349

Other Income 26 24 21 43 50 55

(% of PBT) 13.0 12.0 15.6 51.8 69.2 54.2

Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -

Recurring PBT 201 200 133 83 72 102% chg 15.8 (0.1) (33.5) (37.7) (13.2) 41.6

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - (5.8) - - -

PBT (reported) 201 200 127 83 72 102Tax 71.5 74.4 44.7 30.9 24.5 34.6

(% of PBT) 35.6 37.1 35.1 37.3 34.0 34.0

PAT (reported) 129 126 83 52 47 67Add: Share of earnings of asso. - - - - - -

Less: Minority interest (MI) 1.9 1.4 (1.0) (1.2) (1.4) (1.5)

Prior period items - - - - - -

PAT after MI (reported) 127 125 84 53 49 69ADJ. PAT 127 125 89 53 49 69% chg 3.0 (2.0) (28.2) (40.5) (8.3) 40.7(% of Net Sales) 2.8 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.8 1.0

Basic EPS (`) 25.7 25.2 18.1 10.8 9.9 13.9Fully Diluted EPS (`) 25.7 25.2 18.1 10.8 9.9 13.9% chg 3.0 (2.0) (28.2) (40.5) (8.3) 40.7

Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with

previous year numbers


7/10


August 20, 2013 7

Balance sheet (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 10 10 10 10 10 10Share App Money - warrants - - - - - -

Reserves & Surplus 968 1,078 1,197 1,291 1,334 1,397

Shareholders Funds 978 1,088 1,207 1,301 1,344 1,407Minority Interest 5 6 6 10 8 7Total Loans 1,302 1,661 2,132 2,656 2,806 2,956

Deferred Tax Liability 88 138 195 205 209 214

Total Liabilities 2,374 2,893 3,539 4,171 4,367 4,583APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 1,277 1,509 1,804 1,901 2,001 2,101

Less: Acc. Depreciation 289 384 525 666 815 973

Net Block 988 1,125 1,279 1,235 1,186 1,128Capital Work-in-Progress 19 27 44 43 43 43

Goodwill - - - - - -

Investments 3 23 54 110 110 110Current Assets 3,125 3,766 4,909 5,764 6,204 6,756Inventories 671 812 879 798 855 964

Sundry Debtors 1,806 2,298 1,689 2,305 2,503 2,706

Cash 110 106 73 83 97 103

Loans & Advances 398 405 630 798 872 965

Other 140 145 1,638 1,780 1,878 2,017

Current liabilities 1,760 2,048 2,747 2,981 3,177 3,454

Net Current Assets 1,364 1,718 2,162 2,783 3,028 3,302Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -

Total Assets 2,374 2,893 3,539 4,171 4,367 4,583Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with



8/10


August 20, 2013 8

Cash flow statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 201 200 127 83 72 102

Depreciation 81 95 141 141 149 158Change in Working Capital (212) (357) (478) (611) (230) (268)

Less: Other income (26) (24) (21) (43) (50) (55)

Direct taxes paid (71) (74) (45) (31) (24) (35)

Cash Flow from Operations (28) (160) (275) (461) (83) (98)(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (63) (241) (312) (96) (100) (100)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (1) (20) (31) (56) - -

Other income 26 24 21 43 50 55

Cash Flow from Investing (37) (237) (322) (109) (50) (45)Issue of Equity (21) - (0) - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 82 358 471 524 150 150

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (12) (12) (11) (11) (6) (6)

Others 7 47 104 68 4 5

Cash Flow from Financing 56 393 564 580 148 149Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (9) (4) (33) 10 14 6

Opening Cash balances 119 110 106 73 83 97Closing Cash balances 110 106 73 83 97 103




9/10


August 20, 2013 9

Key RatiosY/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 1.7 1.8 2.5 4.2 4.5 3.2P/CEPS 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8

P/BV 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Dividend yield (%) 4.5 4.5 4.5 2.2 2.2 2.2

EV/Sales 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4

EV/EBITDA 3.1 3.6 4.3 5.2 5.2 4.9

EV / Total Assets 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7

Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 25.7 25.2 18.1 10.8 9.9 13.9

EPS (fully diluted) 25.7 25.2 18.1 10.8 9.9 13.9

Cash EPS 57.5 58.9 56.2 52.5 52.9 59.5

DPS 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Book Value 197.7 219.9 244.0 262.9 271.6 284.4

Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 6.5 6.7 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.7

Tax retention ratio 64.4 62.9 64.9 62.7 66.0 66.0

Asset turnover (x) 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.6

ROIC (Post-tax) 8.8 8.1 7.1 5.5 5.6 6.0

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 6.2 6.3 7.9 7.6 8.0 8.0

Leverage (x) 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.0

Operating ROE 11.9 10.5 5.9 1.6 0.7 1.9

Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 13.0 12.3 10.7 8.6 8.2 8.8

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 13.8 12.9 11.1 8.8 8.5 9.1

ROE 13.5 12.1 7.8 4.2 3.7 5.0

Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.4

Inventory / Sales (days) 54 56 51 52 48 48

Receivables (days) 139 155 121 124 141 138

Payables (days) 156 159 159 194 197 191

Wcap cycle (ex-cash) (days) 234 253 258 325 345 337

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0

Net debt to EBITDA 2.6 3.2 3.9 4.8 4.8 4.6

Interest Coverage 2.4 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1




10/10


August 20, 2013 10

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Simplex Infra

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Documents

Simplex Infra, 1Q FY 2014