Norwegian Labour market development May 2008

NAV, 20.04.23 Side 2

GDP growth: 6% in 2007Annual GDP growth in mainland Norway. 1996-2007

0,0 %

1,0 %

2,0 %

3,0 %

4,0 %

5,0 %

6,0 %

7,0 %

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

GDP growth Average GDP growth 1971-2006

NAV, 20.04.23 Side 3

Total oil investment reaches 130 billion NOK in 2008

Oil investments (Million NOK). Accrued Investment costs 1996-2007. Estimated costs 2008.

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

NAV, 20.04.23 Side 4

Decreasing activity in the building sector?

0,00

100,00

200,00

300,00

400,00

500,00

600,00

700,00

800,00

jan.0

1

apr.0

1jul

.01

okt.0

1

jan.0

2

apr.0

2jul

.02

okt.0

2

jan.0

3

apr.0

3jul

.03

okt.0

3

jan.0

4

apr.0

4jul

.04

okt.0

4

jan.0

5

apr.0

5jul

.05

okt.0

5

jan.0

6

apr.0

6jul

.06

okt.0

6

jan.0

7

apr.0

7jul

.07

okt.0

7

jan.0

8

Total Houses Other buildings

New buildings in progress, Areal (1000m2). Trend Jan 2001 - Feb 2008

NAV, 20.04.23 Side 5

Labour Force and employment. 1997 –February 2008. Seasonally adjusted from the Labour Force Survey.

2100

2150

2200

2250

2300

2350

2400

2450

2500

2550

2600

feb.

97

jun.

97

okt.9

7

feb.

98

jun.

98

okt.9

8

feb.

99

jun.

99

okt.9

9

feb.

00

jun.

00

okt.0

0

feb.

01

jun.

01

okt.0

1

feb.

02

jun.

02

okt.0

2

feb.

03

jun.

03

okt.0

3

feb.

04

jun.

04

okt.0

4

feb.

05

jun.

05

okt.0

5

feb.

06

jun.

06

okt.0

6

feb.

07

jun.

07

okt.0

7

feb.

08

1000

per

son

s

Labour force Employed

NAV, 20.04.23 Side 6

Labour force participation 2000 – 2007.16(15) – 74 years.

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Men Women Total

NAV, 20.04.23 Side 7

Employed persons aged 60 – 74 in per cent of the total population aged 60 – 74. 2000 – 2006.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

År

Total Men Women

NAV, 20.04.23 Side 8

Unemployment development

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

120000

130000

jan.9

8

mai.

98

sep.

98

jan.9

9

mai.

99

sep.

99

jan.0

0

mai.

00

sep.

00

jan.0

1

mai.

01

sep.

01

jan.0

2

mai.

02

sep.

02

jan.0

3

mai.

03

sep.

03

jan.0

4

mai.

04

sep.

04

jan.0

5

mai.

05

sep.

05

jan.0

6

mai.

06

sep.

06

jan.0

7

mai.

07

sep.

07

jan.0

8

Registered unemployed and persons on measures Registered unemployed Unemployed according to the LFS (AKU)

NAV, 20.04.23 Side 9

Labour market tightness

Inflow of public announced vacancies per workday and inflow of jobseekers per workday. Jan 2001 – April 2008. Trend

450

650

850

1050

1250

1450

1650

Infl

ow

vac

anci

es

300

400500

600

700800

900

1000

11001200

1300

Infl

ow

jo

bse

eker

s

Inflow of public announced vacancies per workday Inflow of jobseekers per workday

NAV, 20.04.23 Side 10

Largest net immigration ever in 2007

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

NAV, 20.04.23 Side 11

Decreasing unemployment in all regionsPercentage change in registered unemployment by region, April 2004 – April 2008.

-52 %

-58 % -58 %

-47 %

-54 %-56 %

-59 % -58 %

-63 %-61 %

-71 %

-57 %

-69 %-66 %

-50 % -49 %-51 %

-48 %

-44 %

-57 %

-80 %

-70 %

-60 %

-50 %

-40 %

-30 %

-20 %

-10 %

0 %

Østfold

Akers

hus

Oslo

Hedm

ark

Opplan

d

Buske

rud

Vestfo

ld

Telem

ark

Aust-A

gder

Vest-A

gder

Rogala

nd

Horda

land

Sogn

og F

jorda

ne

Møre

og

Romsd

al

Sør-Trø

ndela

g

Nord-

Trønd

elag

Nordla

nd

Trom

s

Finnm

ark

Total

NAV, 20.04.23 Side 12

Largest unemployment rate for young menRegistered unemployed in percentage of the labour force. Age and sex, April 2008.

0,9 %

2,0 %2,2 %

1,8 %

1,2 %

0,9 %

1,9 %

1,5 %1,4 %

3,1 %

2,4 %

1,7 %

1,3 %1,1 %

1,8 %1,7 %

0,0 %

0,5 %

1,0 %

1,5 %

2,0 %

2,5 %

3,0 %

3,5 %

19 yearsand less

20-24years

25-29years

30-39years

40-49years

50-59years

60 yearsor more

Total

Women Men

NAV, 20.04.23 Side 13

Unemployment by level of education, August 2007

3,3 %

1,5 %1,3 %

0,9 %

2,0 %

0,0 %

0,5 %

1,0 %

1,5 %

2,0 %

2,5 %

3,0 %

3,5 %

4,0 %

4,5 %

5,0 %

Primary school Secondaryschool, all levels

Tertiaryeducation, short

Tertiaryeducation, long

Total

NAV, 20.04.23 Side 14

Man labour years lost in the ordinary production due to poor health.Actual figures 1992 – 2007, forecast 2008 - 2030

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

Man labour yearssickness absence

Man labour yearsvocationally disabled

Man labour yearsrehailitation

Man labour yearsdisabled

NAV, 20.04.23 Side 15

Expected age of retirement at the age of 50, 1986 – 2006.

Expected age of retirement at the age of 50

62,0

62,5

63,0

63,5

64,0

64,5

65,0

Exp

ecte

d a

ge

of

reti

rein

g

Total Women Men

NAV, 20.04.23 Side 16

Persons taking early retirement (AFP) in per cent of all entitled to early retirement

30 %

32 %

34 %

36 %

38 %

40 %

42 %

44 %

46 %

48 %

50 %

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

total women men

NAV, 20.04.23 Side 17

Outlook for 2008 and 2009

Uncertainty connected to the development of the world economy

Strong NOK, high interest rate, and lower demand from abroad will lead to lower activity in parts of the manufacturing sector and in the building sector.

High oil prices – high level of investments in the oil sector.

Further growth in the public sector

The economy will peak in 2008

NAV, 20.04.23 Side 18

Our forecast

2007 2008 2009

Registered unemployed (persons) 46 062 40 000 45 000

Registered unemployed as a percentage of the labour force 1,90 % 1,60 % 1,80 %

Participants in labour market programmes 10 121 11 450 11 450

Unemployed, AKU, as a percentage of the labour force 2,50 % 2,50 % 2,80 %

Labour force (AKU) 61 000 55 000 30 000Employed (AKU) 81 000 55 000 20 000AKU unemployed -20 000 0 10 000Registered unemployed (NAV) -16 900 -6 000 5 000

NAV, 20.04.23 Side 19

Statistics 2007Statistics 2007

50 163 persons in contact with NAV EURES:

38 671 jobseekers 11 258 employers 1 200 direct placements More than 5 000 other placements

through CV-base and jobfairs 7 000 employers used NAV EURES

for recruiting in 2007 -- and around 40% of these are

private recruitment agencies

NAV, 20.04.23 Side 20

NAV EURES is growing each year