No Worker Left No Worker Left BehindBehind

December 12, 2007December 12, 2007Andy Levin, Deputy DirectorAndy Levin, Deputy Director

Michigan Dept. of Labor & Economic Michigan Dept. of Labor & Economic GrowthGrowth

levina@michigan.govlevina@michigan.gov517-373-6334517-373-6334

www.michigan.gov/nwlbwww.michigan.gov/nwlb

MI Workforce System MI Workforce System SnapshotSnapshot

• Strong, decentralized CC system (28)Strong, decentralized CC system (28)• Proud, decentralized WDB/one-stop Proud, decentralized WDB/one-stop

system (“Michigan Works!”) (25)system (“Michigan Works!”) (25)• Little statewide collaboration or Little statewide collaboration or

strategystrategy• Misfit between federal programs & Misfit between federal programs &

what we needwhat we need– WIA: reemployment vs. trainingWIA: reemployment vs. training– TAA: better, but misses mostTAA: better, but misses most

Major ChallengeMajor ChallengeRebuilding adult ed in Rebuilding adult ed in MIMI

• We radically defunded it: from $80M to We radically defunded it: from $80M to $20M$20M

• It wasn’t working anywayIt wasn’t working anyway• Massive numbers of Michiganders areMassive numbers of Michiganders are

– Functionally illiterateFunctionally illiterate– Non-English speakingNon-English speaking– Not ready for associate’s level work in Not ready for associate’s level work in

anythinganything

• We MUST NOT AND WILL NOT leave We MUST NOT AND WILL NOT leave these brothers and sisters behind!these brothers and sisters behind!

Our blessing, our curseOur blessing, our curseMI has nearly 1/4 of US MI has nearly 1/4 of US

auto jobsauto jobsU.S. Automotive Industry - State Share

Percent Employment by State 2006

20.1%

11.9% 11.7%

5.1% 5.0%3.7% 3.3% 3.1%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Michigan Ohio Indiana Tennessee Kentucky California Texas Missouri

““Detroit 3” U.S. Market ShareDetroit 3” U.S. Market Share• Plummeted by almost half in a Plummeted by almost half in a

decadedecade• From 73 % in 1996 to 54% in From 73 % in 1996 to 54% in

20062006Big Three Market Share

1996-2006

ChryslerGroup 13%

Chrysler Group16%

Ford26%

Ford17%

GM31%

GM24%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Source: WardsAuto.com

ManufacturingManufacturing• Decline of over 270,000 jobs from 1999 to 2007Decline of over 270,000 jobs from 1999 to 2007

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Mon

thly

Em

plo

ymen

t Lev

el

(100

0s)

Apr 2007634,500

Jan 1992780,300

Jul 1999906,200

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: Economic and Revenue Forecasting Division, Michigan Department of Treasury, 5/30/07

Michigan and U.S. Unemployment Rates

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

181

97

6

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

An

nu

al A

vg

Un

em

plo

ym

en

t R

ate

U.S.

Michigan

sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, and National Bureau of Economic Research

(Recessions shaded )

UnemploymentUnemployment

Michigan Job Market Michigan Job Market FrigidFrigid

• bizjournal.combizjournal.com report report on 100 largest U.S. job on 100 largest U.S. job markets (9/07)markets (9/07)

• Coldest job marketsColdest job markets– Grand Rapids - #10Grand Rapids - #10– Lansing - # 6Lansing - # 6– Detroit - #Detroit - #11

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

Level of Educational Attainment

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

the

Po

pu

lati

on Michigan

EducationalAttainment

United StatesEducationalAttainment

Educational AttainmentEducational Attainment

The World in a Grain of SandThe World in a Grain of Sand

General Motors & FlintGeneral Motors & Flint• 1955 - Flint, MI employees: 86,7001955 - Flint, MI employees: 86,700• 2007 - U.S. employees: 73,0002007 - U.S. employees: 73,000

Flint today…Flint today…• Flint residents living in poverty has increased Flint residents living in poverty has increased

62.5 %62.5 %• In 2004, 26.4 % of the 124,000 people in Flint In 2004, 26.4 % of the 124,000 people in Flint

lived below the poverty linelived below the poverty line• 80 % of those households have individuals 80 % of those households have individuals

who are employed full or part timewho are employed full or part time

Source: "Poverty in Genesee County: A social crisis," from a study conducted in 2004 by Michigan Department for Career Development and the

Genesee Action Resource Department.

The Good Jobs of Today & The Good Jobs of Today & Tomorrow Require TrainingTomorrow Require Training

• OccupationOccupation– Network systems and data communications Network systems and data communications

analystsanalysts– Physician assistants Physician assistants – Computer software engineers, applications Computer software engineers, applications – Physical therapist assistantsPhysical therapist assistants– Dental hygienists Dental hygienists – Computer software engineers, systems Computer software engineers, systems

software software – Network and computer systems administrators Network and computer systems administrators – Database administratorDatabase administrator– Physical TherapistPhysical Therapist– Forensic science technicianForensic science technician

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Doctor

al D

egre

e

First P

rofe

ssio

nal D

egre

e

Mas

ter's

Deg

ree

Work

Exp

erie

nce &

BA o

r Hig

her D

egre

e

Bachel

or's D

egre

e (B

A)

Associ

ate

Degre

e

Post-S

econda

ry V

ocatio

nal T

rain

ing

Exper

ience

in R

elat

ed O

ccupat

ion

Long-te

rm (

> 12

Month

s) O

JT

Moder

ate-

term

(1 to

12

Month

s) OJT

Short-te

rm (S

hort Dem

o or <

1 M

onth) O

JT

Degrees

Per

cen

tag

e o

f G

row

th

Source: DLEG, Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives Occupational Employment Forecasts 2004-2014

Jobs Requiring Education Jobs Requiring Education Growing FasterGrowing Faster

Education, Weekly Earnings and Unemployment, U.S. 2004

Source: Current Population Survey

$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900

$1,000

< 9th Grade HS Somecollege

AA Deg BA Deg

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%

Weekly Earnings Unemployment Rate

Source: DLEG, Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives Michigan Job Vacancy Survey 2006

$34.15

$22.50

$19.59

$11.68$9.50$8.00

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%N

o D

iplo

ma

HS

/GE

DV

ocat

iona

l Tra

inin

gA

ssoc

iate

's D

egre

eB

ache

lor's

Deg

ree

Adv

ance

d D

egre

e

Pe

rce

nt

of

Jo

b V

ac

an

cie

s (

%)

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$35.00

$40.00

Me

dia

n W

ag

e (

$)

Education Median Wages

Our Jobs DilemmaOur Jobs Dilemma

School reform can’t fix this School reform can’t fix this alonealone

• About two-thirds (65 percent) of our 2020 About two-thirds (65 percent) of our 2020 workforce is already beyond the reach of K-workforce is already beyond the reach of K-12 schools. 12 schools.

• Current potential pool of skilled workers Current potential pool of skilled workers among prime-age adults (18-44) is equal to among prime-age adults (18-44) is equal to the next 17 years of high school graduating the next 17 years of high school graduating classes. classes.

• Michigan has seen rapid growth in high Michigan has seen rapid growth in high school grads in last 5 years but that will peak school grads in last 5 years but that will peak this year and fall rapidly over next ten years.this year and fall rapidly over next ten years.

• In effect we need to “grow our own” skilled In effect we need to “grow our own” skilled workforce from among the workers we workforce from among the workers we already have.already have.

Culture of Life Long Culture of Life Long LearningLearning

Grand Rapids High SchoolAlpine Elementary

Grand Rapids Community College

No Worker Left BehindNo Worker Left Behind

•RevitalizeRevitalize – New VisionNew Vision

•ReorganizeReorganize– Many funding Many funding

streams, one facestreams, one face

•ReplenishReplenish– Add’l $ for Add’l $ for

training: federal, training: federal, state, privatestate, private

Double # of Michiganders Double # of Michiganders TrainedTrained

• In-Demand OccupationsIn-Demand Occupations• To Over 100,000To Over 100,000• In the Next Three YearsIn the Next Three Years

Who is Eligible for Who is Eligible for NWLB?NWLB?

• Any person whoAny person who– Is unemployed (broadly defined) orIs unemployed (broadly defined) or– Has received notification of termination; Has received notification of termination;

andand• Any person who is currently employed Any person who is currently employed

whose family income is less than $40Kwhose family income is less than $40K• Excluded: 18-23 year olds who recently Excluded: 18-23 year olds who recently

graduated HS or are in collegegraduated HS or are in college

What NWLB Offers What NWLB Offers Michigan WorkersMichigan Workers

• Up-front assessment & counselingUp-front assessment & counseling• Up to two years worth of free tuition Up to two years worth of free tuition

and fees to complete a certificate or and fees to complete a certificate or degreedegree

• Up to $5,000 per year, $10,000 for two Up to $5,000 per year, $10,000 for two yearsyears

• Help with child care and transportationHelp with child care and transportation• Placement assistance after trainingPlacement assistance after training• Hope for a new beginning!Hope for a new beginning!

And what level student is And what level student is included?included?

Everyone from ABE to MA Everyone from ABE to MA students!students!

Worker’s End of the DealWorker’s End of the Deal• Go to local MWA for assessmentGo to local MWA for assessment• Pursue certificate/degree towards:Pursue certificate/degree towards:

– In-demand occupationIn-demand occupation– Growing or emerging industryGrowing or emerging industry– EntrepreneurshipEntrepreneurship– (What training qualifies decided by each MWA)(What training qualifies decided by each MWA)

• Continued funding depends on performanceContinued funding depends on performance• Sign up within three years (Aug. 2007 – July Sign up within three years (Aug. 2007 – July

2010) 2010) • Complete training within four years of Complete training within four years of

startingstarting

FundingFunding

• All available student All available student financial aid firstfinancial aid first

• Federal funding secondFederal funding second– Workforce Investment ActWorkforce Investment Act– TAATAA– TANFTANF– Vocational RehabVocational Rehab

• State “General Fund” State “General Fund” funding last (if/when we funding last (if/when we get it)get it)

NWLB By the NumbersNWLB By the Numbers

• Public interest: the sky is the limitPublic interest: the sky is the limit• 2,000 have joined an unadvertised e-2,000 have joined an unadvertised e-

mail listmail list• Participation in one-stop orientation Participation in one-stop orientation

sessions up 100-500%sessions up 100-500%• A sustained publicity campaign A sustained publicity campaign

would overwhelm the systemwould overwhelm the system

No Worker Left Behind By No Worker Left Behind By the Numbersthe Numbers

Enrolled in Enrolled in TrainingTrainingMonth 2007 2006 2005 2004

August 2,528 2,312 2,477 1,603

September 2,641 2,380 2,756 1,502

October 1,879 2,224 1,497 1,191

November *740 1,567 1,291 1,153

Total 7,788 8,483 8,021 5,449

* Thru 11/23/07

Career Education Consumer Report (CECR) Activity

MonthPrograms

Updated /Added 2007

Schools Updating Programs 2007

July 349 64

August 951 114

September 641 112

October 735 117

Fiscal Situation → Future Fiscal Situation → Future CloudyCloudy

• MI had to close $1.8B deficit for FY MI had to close $1.8B deficit for FY 20082008

• Partisan rancor; brief shutdown Partisan rancor; brief shutdown 10/1/0710/1/07

• FY 2009: deficit of $500-600M or moreFY 2009: deficit of $500-600M or more• Gov has said she won’t ask for any Gov has said she won’t ask for any

new revenuenew revenue• Time to get creative!Time to get creative!

Bottom Line: NWLB Bottom Line: NWLB Shows Shows

Transformation Possible!Transformation Possible!• Upskilling is independent contributor to Upskilling is independent contributor to diversification and resurgencediversification and resurgence

• Cultural change to lifelong learning Cultural change to lifelong learning requires concrete opportunity and hoperequires concrete opportunity and hope

• Public demand is evidentPublic demand is evident• The impact full scale NWLB program The impact full scale NWLB program

would have on MI would be staggeringwould have on MI would be staggering• The political challenge: how to get the The political challenge: how to get the

business community to demand what is business community to demand what is in its best interestin its best interest

No Worker Left No Worker Left BehindBehind

December 12, 2007December 12, 2007Andy Levin, Deputy DirectorAndy Levin, Deputy Director

Michigan Dept. of Labor & Economic Michigan Dept. of Labor & Economic GrowthGrowth

levina@michigan.govlevina@michigan.gov517-373-6334517-373-6334

www.michigan.gov/nwlbwww.michigan.gov/nwlb