Below normal monsoon expected in Northwest and West-Central India

NO SIGNAL

Rainfall departure: -6%

Monsoon progress in June expected to be staggered

NO SIGNAL

Central and West-Central India expected to be below normal

NO SIGNAL

Expected to be the best of all months

Peninsular India –Below normal

NO SIGNAL

Lesser risk expected in East India

Deficit expected in Andhra Pradesh, Northwest and Central India

NO SIGNAL

Majority of the models indicate that El Nino 3.4 SSTs will rise leading to an ENSO condition.

ENSO state based on NINO3.4 SST AnomalyNeutral ENSO: -0.5°C to 0.5°C

Early-Apr CPC/IRI Consensus Probabilistic ENSO Forecast

• ECMWF, Europe – Based on March IC• NCEP (USA) – Based on April IC• BOM, Australia• APCC, South Korea – Based on March IC• SINTEX/JAMSTEC (Japan) – Based on March IC• IRI (USA)• ITEC, Japan – Based on March IC• MRI, Japan – Based on March IC• EUROSIP, Europe – Based on March IC

(IC – Initial conditions)

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