Expanding Environmental Prediction Capabilities for the

Chesapeake Bay: Collaborative Development for Ecological

Forecasting Applications

Expanding Environmental Prediction Capabilities for the

Chesapeake Bay: Collaborative Development for Ecological

Forecasting ApplicationsLouis W. Uccellini; Marie C. Colton;

David S. Green and W. Douglas Wilson

NOAA National Weather Service, National Ocean Service & Chesapeake Bay Office

March 24, 2009

2009 CRC Regional Conference

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Outline

• Drivers• Regional Capabilities: Current State• Expanding Capabilities• Opportunities for Chesapeake Bay

Pilot Forecasts and Collaboration• Regional Capabilities: Future State• Proposed Next Steps

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DriversDrivers

• Addressing User need for expanding environmental prediction as a tool for informed decision making– Linking weather, water and ecological research, assessment,

and monitoring and modeling capabilities at a regional scale– Delivering essential forecast products and services through

regional collaboration– Increasing outreach and education – Enhancing socio-economic benefits

• NOAA initiative to focus its expertise, resources , and capabilities in the broader context of Ecosystem Based Management– Establishing a formal operational ecological forecasting entity

for the Chesapeake Bay and tidal tributaries

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Regional Capabilities: Current State

Need for integration

Regional Capabilities: Current State

Need for integration

• Observations– Extensive regional observation systems and monitoring

programs

• Modeling• Regional atmosphere and ocean models• Hydrodynamic, biogeochemical and biology models

(transport, nutrients, contaminants, populations, vulnerability)

• Water circulation models for the bay• Species population dynamics and disease models

• Research – Quasi-operational ecological forecasting and assessment of

ecosystem indicators backed by NOAA infrastructure and regional partnerships

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ObservationsObservations

Environmental Environmental ModelingModeling

ResearchResearch

Ecological Ecological ForecastingForecasting

&&DecisionDecisionSupportSupport

ToolsTools

ProductsProducts & &

ServicesServices

for for

UsersUsers & &

StakeholdersStakeholders

Expanding CapabilitiesExpanding Capabilities

System development & partnershipsLinking needed components

Scaling to local decision makingSystem use and sustainability

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Opportunities for Chesapeake BayPilot Forecasts*

Opportunities for Chesapeake BayPilot Forecasts*

• Beach/Water Quality– Daily, Weekly (3-7-day), Seasonal Outlooks and Lead times

• Living Resource Distribution– Oyster Forecast, Annual biomass, including harvests and other

related mortality/disease

• Dissolved Oxygen [DO] Predictions– Synoptic to seasonal

• Harmful Algal Bloom (Chlorophyll)– Initiation and land fall at all time scales– Sea Nettles

• Disease Pathogen Progression (Climate Change)– Vibrio or MSX outbreaks

• Mollusks, fish, human impacts– Ecological impacts of global change (eg. sea level rise) – Long-term scenarios* Outcome of discussion with regional providers, Pre-planning meeting for Chesapeake

Ecological Forecasting Workshop, Chesapeake Bay Office, Annapolis, Feb 27, 2009

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Beach/Water QualityMonitoring & Forecast System

Beach/Water QualityMonitoring & Forecast System

• Issue: Water quality is at risk due to microbial and chemical contamination and a threat to human and ecosystem health and economics

• Solution: Water (beach) quality guidance

• Operational Concept: Routinely generate forecasts and warnings daily, weekly, seasonal (including lead times) using hydrologic, waves, precipitation, circulation, transport turbidity, nutrients, waste, watershed and land computational models

• Collaborators: Include state and local managers, scientists, health workers, fishers and regulators

• Output Product: Near-real time maps and decision support tools showing water quality index and long-term scenarios, bacterial content, water temperature, turbidity, beach closures, habitat suitability, stock assessments, categorical risk assessment

• Dissemination: Online, Factsheets, and Media

• Outcome: Actions taken to improve Bay and public health, clean water, promote restoration, land and resource management, adaptation, and research

Indicators and Indices

http://www.eco-check.org/reportcard/chesapeake/2007/

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Ecological Forecasting Application Development and

Partnerships

Ecological Forecasting Application Development and

Partnerships

User Requirements and Operational Feedback

Federal, State, and Local Stakeholders and Users, including other management agencies (State Depts. of Health, Fisheries; Nat'l Marine Sanctuaries, Protected Species)

Develop concepts, models, sensors

Research(separate program)

OperationsPre-operationsTransition(Development)

Validation

Product types,

Training matl,Analysts

Data integration,

Data access

Forecast development

Transfer models

Forecasts (bulletins),Respond to

users,Access and

run data sets,User

interaction

Forecast evaluation,

Product usefulness,

Product effectiveness,Annual User

feedback

Various Researchers (NOAA, NASA, NSF, USGS…) and Regional Stakeholders

Technical Oversight Group (NOAA)Researchers andRegional Stakeholders

NOAA andState partners NOAA and

State partners NOAA andTechnical Oversight GroupKey Users GroupKey Users Group

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Opportunities for Chesapeake BayCollaborative Development

Opportunities for Chesapeake BayCollaborative Development

• Adopt a Trans-disciplinary approach – Integrative research science

– Collaborative community-based development

– Shared resources and expertise

– Building off existing operational prediction and product delivery infrastructure and experience

• Establish a Regional Presence– Pilot Project Office

• Focus for regional collaboration

• Integration test environment (testbed) for advancing ecological forecasting

* Outcome of discussion with regional providers, Pre-planning meeting for Chesapeake Ecological Forecasting Workshop, Chesapeake Bay Office, Annapolis, Feb 27, 2009

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Regional Capabilities: Future State

Regional Capabilities: Future State

• Integrated Observations– Continuum over spatial and temporal scales

• Atmospheric-ocean, estuaries, near-shore• River flow and flux, wetlands, watersheds• Coastal and beaches• Land-surface biophysics • Weather and climate • Biogeochemistry and species

– In situ, remote sampling, surveys, and process studies

• Linked Modeling and Research– Multiply nested global to regional models

• Atmospheric, ocean circulation, coastal and river– Linked physical, biogeochemical, and ecosystem– Model/data fusion, portals and libraries

• Decision Support – Interactive and adaptive tools

• Geospatial and online maps

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Regional Capabilities: Future State

Regional Capabilities: Future State

• Products and Services– Ecological warnings, watches, advisories, and information

bulletins Long-term scenarios and outlooks– Interactive decision support, visualization aids, and maps– Education and outreach

• Operating Principles– Scalable to inform decisions for regional to local management– Collaborative and community-based– User-driven for mitigation, adaptation, restoration and

recovery– Effective, reliable and quality controlled with known

uncertainties– Directed to transition research results to validated

applications– Accessible and supportive operational infrastructure and

feedback to drive new research

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Proposed Next StepsProposed Next Steps

• Engage with stakeholder and user community in developing the forecast and management capability

• Establish Regional Collaborative Pilot Office near NOAA at University of Maryland– Extend multi-agency, academic, and regional participation

• Maintain a robust monitoring and observing network– Strengthen regional observation and data systems

• Deliver pre-operational forecast products and tools– Integration of a suite of hydrodynamic and biological

models

– Use regional testbed for accelerating research to applications

– Develop and implement forecast products and tools for living resource distributions, hypoxic conditions, water quality, beach closures, algal blooms and pathogens

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AppendixAppendix

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Harmful Algal Bloom (Chlorophyll)Monitoring & Forecast System

Harmful Algal Bloom (Chlorophyll)Monitoring & Forecast System

• Issue: HABs threaten human health and natural resources

• Solution: Predict nature, extent, development and movement of HAB species in Bay and its tidal tributaries.

• Operational Concept: Routinely generate forecasts using data from hydrodynamic computer models and NOAA satellites.

• Collaborators: Include state natural resource partners

• Output Product: Near-real time maps showing when and where to expect initiation and landfall

• Dissemination: Online and Media

• Outcome: Actions taken to monitor and mitigate HAB effects.

Nowcast of K.veneficum abundance (Experimental product)

http://155.206.18.162/cbay_hab/

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Dissolved Oxygen [DO]Monitoring & Forecast System

Dissolved Oxygen [DO]Monitoring & Forecast System

• Issue: Some areas of the Bay have low oxygen levels threatening survival of species.

• Solution: Predictions and forecasts of hypoxia, including uncertainty related to nutrient loading and river flow

• Operational Concept: Routinely generate predictions and forecasts on synoptic to seasonal scales using data from hydrodynamic, circulation, watershed, atmospheric and water quality models

• Collaborators: Include state managers, scientists and fishers

• Output Product: Maps and decision support tools showing concentration and dead zones, habitat suitability, and marine assessments

• Dissemination: Online and Media

• Outcome: Regional actions taken to promote restoration and recovery

http://www.eco-check.org/forecast/chesapeake/overview/

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Living Resource Distribution/Oyster

Monitoring & Forecast System

Living Resource Distribution/Oyster

Monitoring & Forecast System

Chesapeake Bay Oyster Larvae Tracker (CBOLT)http://csc.noaa.gov/cbolt/

• Issue: Oyster populations are at low levels and productivity varies depending on salinity, water quality, habitat conditions, and disease.

• Solution: Annual forecast of oyster biomass including harvests and other related mortality/disease information

• Operational Concept: Routinely generate forecasts and outlooks using data from hydrodynamic, circulation, watershed, water quality, atmospheric and ecosystem models

• Collaborators: Include state managers, scientists and fishers

• Output Product: Maps and decision support tools showing habitat suitability, stock assessments, management and larvae tracking

• Dissemination: Online and Media

• Outcome: Actions taken to promote oyster restoration and disease research

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Oyster Larvae Tracker System Architecture

Oyster Larvae Tracker System Architecture

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Disease Pathogen ProgressionMonitoring & Forecast SystemDisease Pathogen ProgressionMonitoring & Forecast System

• Issue: Bacterial and viral pathogens – microorganisms capable of causing disease - threaten shellfish, fish species and human health

• Solution: Predict nature, extent, and spatially dependence of pathogens, including virulence probabilities in Bay and tidal tributaries

• Operational Concept: Routinely generate short- and long-term predictions using data from hydrodynamic and climate models, temperature and salinity, vibrio and multiple species, pathogen models and remote sensing data. Near-real-time maps of V. cholerae likelihood

Experimental product http://155.206.18.162/pathogens/

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Disease Pathogen ProgressionMonitoring & Forecast SystemDisease Pathogen ProgressionMonitoring & Forecast System

• Collaborators: Include water quality and resource mangers, environmental, health and safety planners, and health officials

• Output Product: Near-real time predictions and maps showing when and where to expect outbreaks or likelihood of occurrence, and long-term scenarios

• Dissemination: Online, Factsheets and Media

• Outcome: Actions taken to monitor and mitigate impacts of pathogens