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Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Land User Change: A Closer Look on BrazilEnvironmental Protection AgencyWorkshop on Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Analysis for the Proposed Revisions to the National Renewable Fuels Standard ProgramOUTLINEProjections on land allocation (CARD/FAPRI) at a national level (out of US)Sugarcane: control case minus imports only casePer acre emission factors (Winrock International)Step one – step two approachOne shot emission in the year zeroCalculation of total emissionsNet expansion in total agricultural land times per acre emissions100 year period
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Washington 11 June 2009
Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Land User Change
A Closer Look on Brazil
Environmental Protection Agency Workshop on Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Analysis for the Proposed Revisions to the National Renewable
Fuels Standard Program
Andre M. Nassar Director-General, ICONE
ILUC Emissions: Three Topics
Projections on land allocation (CARD/FAPRI) at a national level (out of US) Sugarcane: control case minus imports only case
Per acre emission factors (Winrock International) Step one – step two approach
One shot emission in the year zero
Calculation of total emissions Net expansion in total agricultural land times per acre emissions
100 year period
Projections on Land Allocation (Brazilian Land Use Model)
Outputs from CARD/FAPRI model: National harvested area: wheat,
cotton, corn, barley, soybean, rice and sugarcane.
Total agricultural land expansion is used for emissions calculations.
Types of land displaced by the expansion of ag land are not identified.
Improvements to be made: Regionalize the country:
Emissions factors can be connected directly to the results.
Project pasture land endogenously: Capture pasture intensification due
to competition with crops. Separate winter (wheat) and
second crops (corn) from the land use analysis.
Include regional land availability taking into account: Legal restrictions; Suitability.
Macro-Regions Used in the Brazilian Land Use Model
Source: ICONE.
North Amazonia
Center West Cerrado
MAPITO and Bahia
Northeast coast
Southeast
South
Tropical Forest
Savannas
Savannas
Savannas and Atlantic Forest
Atlantic Forest and Grasslands
Grasslands
Brazil: Land Allocated to Agriculture According to the BLUM Regions
(million acres)
Source: IBGE/CONAB. Elaboration: ICONE.
44.7
104.8
131.9
118.0
27.1
79.2
34.7
22.1
24.9
9.4
10.2
12.3 0 20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
South
Southeast
Center West Cerrado
North Amazonia
Northeast coast
MAPITO and Bahia
Pastures
Crops
Crops: Soybean, Corn (1st crop), rice, cotton, dry bean and sugarcane
Brazil, 1997 to 2008
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
1997
19
98
1999
20
00
2001
20
02
2003
20
04
2005
20
06
2007
20
08
Crops Pastures
Macro-regions, 2008
Absolute Variation: Land Allocated to Agriculture (million acres, 1997 to current)
4.3
4.3
12.6
4.3
-0.6
4.2
-5.2
1.8
-3.0
29.4
3.0
-1.0
-6.0
-2
.0
2.0
6.0
10.0
14
.0
18.0
22
.0
26.0
30
.0
South
Southeast
Center West Cerrado
North Amazonia
Northeast coast
MAPITO and Bahia
Pastures
Crops
-0.9
6.2
9.6
34.9
2.4
3.2
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Soybean, Corn (1st crop), rice, cotton, dry bean, sugarcane and pastures
Total ag land
Source: IBGE/CONAB. Elaboration: ICONE.
Example of Direct Substitution: Remote Sensing
Source: CANASAT/INPE, published in Nassar, A.M., Rudorff, B. F. T., Antoniazzi, L. B., Aguiar, D. A., Bacchi, M. R. P. and Adami, M, 2008. Prospects of the Sugarcane Expansion in Brazil: Impacts on Direct and Indirect Land Use Changes. In: Sugarcane Ethanol: Contributions to Climate Change Mitigation and the Environment. Zuurbier, P, Vooren, J (eds). Wageningen: Wageningen Academic Publishers.
572 580
1,152 434 557
991
0 250 500 750
1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500
2007 2008 2007-08
Crops Pastures Citrus Other
56% 50% 53%
42% 48% 45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2008 2007-08
South-Central Region: Classes of Land Use Converted to Sugarcane,, 2007 and 2008 (1,000 ha)
Example of Expansion in the Amazon: Data from Soybean Moratorium Project
Source: Abiove e Globalsat (www.abiove.com.br).
50,240 32%
83,872 53%
6,328 4%
13,727 9%
3,730 2%
Pastures
Deforestation and burning Crops
Vegetation recover Other
Amazon Biome: Deforestated Area under Monitoring from 2006 to 2008 by Land Use Classes (hectares)
Total area cleared monitored by the
moratorium: 157,896 hectares
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Brazil South Southeast Center-west Cerrados North Amazon Northeast Costal MAPITO and Bahia
Total Herd (1,000 heads) and Stocking Rate (animals/ha)
Elaboração: ICONE.
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Brazil South Southeast Center-west Cerrados North Amazon Northeast Costal MAPITO and Bahia
region brazil region brazil
Brazilian Land Use Model: Land Availability (1,000 acres)
Source: ICONE.
Region (A) Total Agricultural Land
(B) Pastures suitable for crops (C) Legally available (D) Total available
(E) Total available discounting legal
reserve deficit South 1 84,441 14,039 8,382 11,461 6,493 Southeast 2 133,791 74,959 16,691 32,644 26,299
Center-west Cerrados 3 158,570 105,149 31,161 65,555 56,703
North Amazon 4 124,129 96,563 45,293 318,883 261,867 Northeast Costal 5 35,995 0 481 481 -353 MAPITO and Bahia 6 92,157 20,670 61,907 98,872 84,420 Total 629,084 311,380 163,914 527,895 435,430 (A) Total land used for soybean, corn (1st crop), cotton, rice, drybeans, sugarcane, commercial forests and pastures. (B) Pastures that are under slopes below 12 percent and out of semi-arid climate. (C) Land under remaining vegetation in areas that can be used for crops (slopes below 12 percent). Legal reserve provision (amount of land with natural vegetation that must be preserved) is discounted. Soil suitability was not considered for the calculations. Soil suitability was not considered for the calculations. (D) Land uncer remaining vegetation in areas that can be used for crops (slope below 12 percent). Legal reserve provision (amount of land with natural vegetation that must be preserved) is not discounted. Soil suitability was not considered for the calculations. Soil suitability was not considered for the calculations. (E) Total land available if the deficits in legal reserve existing in cleared land is eliminated with forest recover or compensation. Soil suitability was not considered for the calculations.
Recalculating Total Emissions Changing Per Acre Emissions Factors for Brazil
2,058 ths acres
1521 ths acres
86 ths acres
373 ths acres
77 ths acres
475 ths acres
499 ths acres
93 ths acres
145 ths acres
-44% 100 years -26% 30 years
Source: Figure extracted from EPA’s Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis: Changes to Renewable Fuel Standard Program
Additional land converted in Brazil when ethanol demand is
shocked (Control Case – Imports Only Case)
Recalculating Total Emissions Changing Per Acre Emissions Factors for Brazil
55%
45% 0%
Sugarcane
Crops 100% Savanna
0% 2,058 ths acres
1,132 ths acres 1,132 ths acres
926 ths acres
-61% 100 years -49% 30 years
Source: Figure extracted from EPA’s Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis: Changes to Renewable Fuel Standard Program
