Is Brazil the land of thepublishing future?

Frankfurt Book FairOct 12, 2012

By Carlo Carrenho

In 1941, Stefan Zweig...

“Brazil is the country of the future…

Since then, Brazilians believe:

…and will always be.”

“In the favelas, in the senateDirt is everywhereNobody respects the ConstitutionBut everyone believes in the future of the nationWhat kind of country is this?”

The idea is supported by artists...

Renato Russo,Brazilian musician,Legião Urbana,1987

“Le Brésil n'est pas un pays sérieux.”

...and by foreign politicians:

General Charles De Gaulle,French military and politician,

in 1963.

“Your country deserves more than ‘potential’. Brazil is a country of the future and you must resolve that the ‘future’ is tomorrow not somewhere in the middle.”

But this lady believed in us:

Margaret Thatcher,Britain’s fighting lady,in a 1994 speech

“For so long, you were called a country of the future, told to wait for a better day. That day has finally come. And this is a country of the future no more. For the people of Brazil, the

future has arrived. And it’s time to seize it.”

And this fellow also gave support:

Barack Obama,US president, in a 2011 speech in Rio.

So, did Mr. Obama get things right this time?

We are growing fine...GNP in 2011:1.7 trillion Euros

Forecasted Growth for 2011: 1.6 %*Source: IBGE

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Brazilian GNP Growth Rate*

Perc

entu

al G

row

th

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

10

20

30

40

50

60

The Social Classes's Mobility*

E-classD-classC-classAB-class

Perc

enta

ge o

f the

Pop

ulati

onWe are distributing better...

E-class: € 0 to € 284D-class: € 284 to € 454C-class: € 454 to € 1956AB-class: € 1956 up

* Family monthly income

*Source: Centro de Políticas Sociais | FGV

And the C-class is booming...

15.36%

11.58%

55.80%

17.26%

The Brazilian Social Classes in 2011*

E-classD-classC-classAB-class

*Source: Centro de Políticas Sociais | FGV

E-class: £0 to £282D-class: £282 to £451C-class: £451 to £1945AB-class: £1945 up

* Family monthly income

The Illiteracy is falling

Source: Relatório INAF 2011 | Instituto Paulo Montenegro

2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2007 2009 20110%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Brazilian Literacy

Illiterate Rudimentary Basic Full

Perc

enta

ge o

f the

Pop

ulati

on

The number of colleges grew...The Brazilian Social Classes in 2011*

Source: Censo da Educação Superior 2009 | Inep, MEC

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

173 186 195 207 224 231 248 249 236 245

10041208

14421652

17891934 2022 2032 2016 2039

Colleges Institutions in Brazil

Public Institutions Private Institutions

Num

ber o

f Ins

tituti

ons

The number of students grew...The Brazilian Social Classes in 2011*

Source: Censo da Educação Superior 2009 | Inep, MEC

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

College Students in Brazil

Private Students Public Students

Num

ber o

f Enr

ollm

ents

So suddenly we are on the news...

We are on the movies...

And our flip-flops are trendy and cool

We will host the Olympics in 2016

We will host the World Cup in 2014

Possible 2014 World Cup Final Match

So Brazil has a huge potential, and it sure includes the publishing industry. As the

Hawaiian fellow said, “it is time to seize it”.

Questions?

Carlo CarrenhoConsultant & Founder of PublishNews

carrenho@gmail.com@carrenho

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