The Role of Universities in City Foresight

Final report of the Future of Cities Research Network

PaulCowie,JohnGoddardandMarkTewdwr-Jones

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The Role of Universities in City Foresight

Final report of the Future of Cities Research Network

March2016

PaulCowie,JohnGoddardandMarkTewdwr-Jones

Thisreportisintendedfor:

Policymakersandawiderangeofprofessionalsandresearcherswhoseinterestsrelatetoallaspectsofthefutureofcitiesandtheroleofhighereducationinstitutions.ThereportsummariesworkfundedbytheGovernmentOfficeforScienceForesightFutureofCitiesprojectandisbasedontheongoingactivitiesoftheresearchnetworkpartners:NewcastleUniversity,CardiffUniversity,UniversityofLiverpool,UniversityofManchester,andUniversityCollegeLondon.Thenetworkleadacademicscomprisedof:

DrPaulCowie,ProfessorJohnGoddardandProfessorMarkTewdwr-Jones,Newcastle.

ProfessorKevinMorganandDrDavidWaite,Cardiff.

ProfessorAlanHardingandDrNicolaHeadlam,Liverpool.

DrJoeRavetzandProfessorIanMiles,Manchester.

DrMicheleAcutoandDrElizabethRapoport,UCL.

Thereportshouldbecitedas:

Cowie,P.,Goddard,J.andTewdwr-Jones,M.(2016),TheRoleofUniversitiesinCityForesight.FinalreportoftheFutureofCitiesResearchNetwork,NewcastleInstituteforSocialRenewal,NewcastleUniversity,Newcastle.

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Contents

1. Introduction2. ResearchNetworkevents3. Thenetwork’srelationshiptootherForesightFutureofCitiesinitiatives

4. Lessonsfromthenetwork5. Goingforward6. TheCivicUniversityandCityForesight7. Aproofofconcept

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1. Introduction

1.1AstheUKGovernmentOfficeforSciencenationalForesightFutureofCitiesproject(2013-15)developedandprogressed,itbecameincreasinglyapparentthatagrowingnumberofcitiesaroundtheUKsawanopportunitytoinitiatetheirownForesightprojectatalocalscale.Inseveralinstances,thisresultedinthelocaluniversityoruniversitiesplayingakeyroleinmobilisingacademicandotherlocalsourcesofknowledgeandexpertisetobuildcapacitytoundertakeanongoingandsustainablecityfuturesprocess.MorespecificallyintheForesightprocess,theuniversitiesaredemonstratingthatbyworkinginpartnershipwithothers,theycanplayaleadershiproleasan‘anchorinstitution’,linkingthecitytoglobalbodiesofknowledge.

1.2TherangeofcityeventshostedbynationalForesighthaverevealedawiderangeofmethodsthatcanbeusedtobuildthislocalcapacity,includinglocalvariantsofnationalForesightstructuresandprocesses(suchasLeadExpertGroup,StakeholderGroup,stateofknowledgereviews,scenariosandsystemsmapping).Inaddition,othermethodscontinuetobedeployedsuchaspublicexhibitions,Delphisurveys,competitions,varioussocialmediaandcivicleadershipdevelopmentprogrammeswiththeaimoffacilitatingtheparticipationofcivilsocietymorewidelyindebateaboutthefutureofthecity.

1.3TheForesightFutureofCitiesResearchNetwork,fundedbytheGovernmentOfficeforScience,wasestablishedinJanuary2015.ThisnetworkhasbeenabletoengagefourcitieswherethelinkbetweenauniversityandcityintheForesightprocessistakingshape.TheseareNewcastleUniversityinNewcastle,UniversityofLiverpoolinLiverpool,CardiffUniversityinCardiffandUniversityofManchesterinManchester.Inaddition,UCLhasbeenlinkedtotheForesightFutureofCitiesResearchNetworktobuildoninternationalworkoncityleadershipthatisrelevanttoUCL’smissiontobe‘London’sGlobalUniversity’.

1.4Thisreportoutlineswhatthenetworkhasachievedsofar.Thenextsectiongivesanoverviewofthenetworkingactivityundertakensincetheinceptionofthenetworkin2015.Thereportthengoesontogiveamoredetailedreviewofeachofthenetworkmeetingsbeforehighlightingsomeoftheinitialoutcomesandfindingsgeneratedbythenetwork.Finally,intrueforesightingtradition,itlookstothefutureofthenetworkandoutlinesopportunitiestotakethenetworkforward.

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2. ResearchNetworkevents

2.1TheForesightFutureofCitiesResearchNetworkcomprisesofacoreof5cities:Newcastle(networkcoordinators),Manchester,Liverpool,CardiffandLondon.Eachcitywithinthenetworkhasapartnershipbetweenauniversityandatleastonecivicinstitutionfromthatcityregion.Table2.1setsouteachofthecitiesandthepartnershipsinvolvedintheForesightFutureofCitiesResearchNetwork.

Table1:FutureofCities-networkcitiesandtheirpartnerships

CityRegion PartnershipsNewcastle NewcastleUniversity,NorthumbriaUniversity,

NewcastleCityCouncil&NELEPGreaterManchester ManchesterUniversity,GMLEPLiverpool LiverpoolUniversity,LCRLEP,NorthHousingCardiff CardiffUniversity,CardiffCityCouncil,Welsh

AssemblyLondonUCL N/A

2.2ItshouldbenotedthatinLondon,UCLweremembersofthenetworkbutwerenotinvolvedinundertakingaForesight-fundedlocalcasestudyfortheGovernmentOfficeforScience.

2.3TheNetworkmet4timesduring2015-16andtable2.2outlineseachofthemeetingsandtheparticipantsatthosemeetings.

MeetingVenue AttendeesNewcastle16thJan2015

Prof.MarkTewdwr-Jones,NewcastleUniversityProf.JohnGoddard,NewcastleUniversityDrPaulCowie,NewcastleUniversityPatRichie,CEXNewcastleCityCouncilProf.AlanHarding,HeseltineInstitute,LiverpoolUniversityDrNicolaHeadlam,HeseltineInstitute,LiverpoolUniversityProf.IanMiles,ManchesterUniversityProf.KevinMorgan,CardiffUniversityDrElizabethRapoport,UCLDrJamesPaskins,UCLProf.SirAlanWilson,GovernmentOfficeforScienceEleriJones,GovernmentOfficeforScience

Liverpool21stMay2015

DrJoeRavetz,ManchesterUniversityProf.MarkTewdwr-Jones,NewcastleUniversityProf.JohnGoddard,NewcastleUniversityProf.AlanHarding,HeseltineInstitute,LiverpoolUniversityDrNicolaHeadlam,HeseltineInstitute,LiverpoolUniversity

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Prof.SirAlanWilson,GovernmentOfficeforScienceDrMicheleAcuto,UCL

Manchester24thJune2015

DrJoeRavetz,ManchesterUniversityProf.IanMiles,ManchesterUniversityProf.MarkTewdwr-Jones,NewcastleUniversityProf.JohnGoddard,NewcastleUniversityProf.AlanHarding,HeseltineInstitute,LiverpoolUniversityDrNicolaHeadlam,HeseltineInstitute,LiverpoolUniversityDrDavidWaite,CardiffUniversityProf.SirAlanWilson,GovernmentOfficeforScience

Cardiff7thJuly2015

Prof.KevinMorgan,CardiffUniversityDrSimonLannon,CardiffUniversityDrCarlaDeLaurentis,CardiffUniversityDrDavidWaite,CardiffUniversityMarkBarry,AdvisorWelshGovernmentPaulOrdersCEX,CardiffCCJaneForshaw,DirectorEnvironment,CardiffCCProfJonGoddard,NewcastleUniversityDrPaulCowie,NewcastleUniversityProf.TimDixon,ReadingUniversityDrJoeRavetz,ManchesterUniversityDrNicolaHeadlam,HeseltineInstitute,LiverpoolUniversity

UCL28thJanuary2016

DrMicheleAcuto,UCLProfBrianCollins,UCL–UKCRICProf.MarkTewdwr-Jones,NewcastleUniversityProf.JohnGoddard,NewcastleUniversityDrPaulCowie,NewcastleUniversityAndrewLewis,NewcastleCityCouncilProf.SirAlanWilson,GovernmentOfficeforScienceDrJoeRavetz,ManchesterUniversityIneSteenmans,GovernmentOfficeforScience

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3. Thenetwork’srelationshiptootherForesightFutureofCitiesinitiatives

3.1Figure1givesanoverviewofthevariouscityfuturesinitiativescentredaroundthenationalForesightFutureofCitiesprojectandtherelationshipbetweentheseinitiatives.

Figure1:FutureofCitiesNetworkanditsrelationshiptootherprojects

NationalForesight

FutureofCitiesNetwork CityPilots CityVision

Community

Newcastle

Cardiff

Manchester

Liverpool

London:UCLcityleadership

DevolutionAgenda/Societal

Challenges

ForesightWorkingPapers

•Rochdale•Bristol•MiltonKeynes

•Belfast•Birmingham•Cambridge•Derby•Derry/Londonderry•Edinburgh•Glasgow•Lancaster•LeedsLeicester

•London•Nottingham•Oxford•Reading•Sheffield•Newcastle•Liverpool•Manchester•Cardiff

Otherfuturecity/regioninitiatives• NorthernPowerhouse• Catapult– FutureCities• ESRCUrbanTransformations• Etc……….

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4. Lessonsfromthenetwork

4.1Eachofthecasestudycitieshashighlightedhowcontextandplacespecificallyinfluencedthenetwork’spartnersapproachestoforesighting.Figure2.2givesanoverviewoftheforesightmethodologyasadaptedtotheregionalscale:

Figure2:OverviewofaRegionalForesightMethodology

RegionalForesightMethod:Methodology:Governance

PrivateSector Public

Universities Stakeholders

LeadExpertGroup

• Mobilisingtheacademy• Collatingevidence

Stage1:Baseline

• Internal– Placebased• External– Societalchallenges

Stage2:Driversforchange

Stage3:Scenariosforfuture

• PoliticalEngagement• Publicdebate

Stage4:Pathwaystoscenario

Stakeholderengagementmethods•UrbanRoom•Stakeholderworkshops•Culturalevents:Debates,Theatre,festivalsetc•Onlinetools:gamingorblogging• SocialMedia•DelphiSurvey•Etc………

Policyengagementmethods• PolicyCabinets• Jointcommittees•Workinggroups•Etc…….

CitiesNetwork

NationalPolicy

Atallstagesoftheprocess

4.2Inthetophalfofthefiguresitsthegovernancearrangements.Thisrelatestoboththegovernanceoftheforesightprocessaswellasthegovernanceinstitutionsandcapacityoftheregionitself.Thedifferentcasestudiesundertakenrevealedarangeofdifferentapproachestothis.

4.3InNewcastle,theprocesswasinitiatedbytheuniversitywhothensoughttodrawintheotherthreeelementsoftheregion:privatesector,publicsectorandcivilsociety.Asoutlinedinthe“NewcastleCityFutures2065”report(Tewdwr-Jonesetal,2015;seewww.newcastlecityufutures.org),thisjoiningupofsectoralinterestswasdonethroughavarietyofstakeholderevents.Thejoined-upapproachtofutureplanninghassincebeenformalisedthroughtheCityFuturesDevelopmentGroup(CFDG).CFDGisacollaborativearrangementbetweenthetwoNewcastleuniversities,NewcastleCityCouncil,theNELEP,andotherpolicyorganisations.ThispartnershipisafirstinNewcastlebutalsoisinnovativefornortherncorecitiesandintendstogeneratelongtermthinkingforthecityanditswiderregion,relateongoingandnewresearchtopolicymakers,andinitiatecollaborativeandcoproductionarrangementsforfutureresearchgrantsandthedeliveryofdemonstratorprojects.

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4.4ThepurposeoftheCFDG,therefore,istoprovideaone-stopshopfortheuniversities,Council,NELEP&industrytodiscussemergingandnewareasofresearchthatcouldbeofbenefittothecity,toidentifyongoingresearchbeingundertakenattheuniversitiesandcollegesthatcouldbedisseminatedtoapolicyaudience,andtohearofcityintelligenceneedstoinformfutureresearchprojectbids.

4.5Incontrast,Cardiffisapproachingtheissuefromadifferentdirection.Thereareanumberofpolicysectorspecificinitiativeslookingtothefuturebuttheinitiativesintheregionlackcoordination.CardiffUniversityisnowseekingtofulfilthisroleandbringtogetherthecomplimentaryfutureplans.

4.6Theexperienceoftwoothercitiesinthenetworkhighlightthechallengesinvolvedinthistypeofcollaborativeproject.InbothLiverpoolandManchester,ithasbeendifficultfortheuniversitytodevelopaworkingrelationshipwiththecityinstitution(s).Inbothcases,attemptsweremadetobringthecityintotheprojectwithlittlesuccessotherthanthereceiptoffundinginthecaseofLiverpool.Thismaybeduetoserendipityoralackofit.InthecaseofbothNewcastleandCardiff,thecitieswereatanearlystageofinitiatingfuturethinkingandwerejustbeginningtogettogripswiththeimplicationsofdevolvedgovernance.InthecaseofManchesterandtoaslightlylesserextentLiverpool,thecityregionshadalreadybeenthroughacycleoffuturesthinkingalbeitoverashortertimeperiodasthe50yearstackledintheForesightFutureofCitiesproject.Agooddealofpoliticalandinstitutionalcapitalhasbeencommittedtothe‘ManchesterModel’andsotointroduceanewelementtothisexistingprocesshasprovedtobedifficult.

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5. GoingForward

5.1Thereareundoubtedchallengesinbringingtwodiverseinstitutions,suchasuniversitiesandcitycouncils,togethertodeveloplongtermthinkingcapacityinthepartnershiparoundcityfutures.Thevariouscitiesinthenetworkhadtackledthisindifferentways:NewcastlewasabletousetheForesightprojectasacatalysttobuildandstrengthennascentconnectionsbetweentheuniversityandthecity.Thiswasperhapsinspiteof,ratherbecauseof,theongoingdevolutionagenda.Incontrast,Cardiffhasbeenusingopportunitiesarounddevolutiontocreateamorestrategicapproachtofutureplanning.InthecasesofLiverpoolandManchester,therehasbeenalackofconnectivitybetweenthecityauthoritiesandagenciesanduniversityforesightprojectthatpreventedanylongtermcapacitytobedeveloped.

5.2Futureresearchisneededtounderstandtheissuesunderpinningthesefailuresaswellasresearchintowhatworks.Thisexperiencewassummedupwellbythequestionaroundthetermsofcivicengagementofuniversities:“Shouldcitiesbeanchoredinuniversitiesaswellas(orinplaceof)universitiesbeinganchoredincities?”

5.3Thisleadsontotheissueofcapacityandleadershipintheprocessofcityfutures.OneofthelessonstocomeoutofthecityfuturesResearchNetworkwastheneedforcapacityandresourcesinbothsetsofinstitutions.Foresight(longterm)thinkingislowonthelistofprioritiesforlocalgovernment.Inthecurrentageofausterity,localauthoritiesareworkingflatoutwithlessstafftomanagethecurrentsituation.Inthiscontext,takingastrategiclongtermapproachtoshapingtheirfuturesisperhapsseenasanunnecessaryburdenorevenluxurywhiletheyarepreoccupiedwithmoreimmediateservicedeliveryconcerns.

5.4Therearealsoconstraintstothistypeoflongtermcapacitybuildingwithinuniversities.Notwithstandingthegreaterprofile‘impact’isgettingwithinframeworkssuchastheResearchExcellenceFramework(REF),thechallengespresentedofengaginginforesightthinkingwithoutsideinstitutionsbecomesnotable.Longtermcollaborationandco-productionhastoovercomeawholerangeofinternalinstitutionalbarrierswithinuniversities.Firstandforemostofthesebarriersisthecommitmentofresourcestoanon-academicendeavour.Citiesandfuturesthinkingisofteninter-disciplinary;assuchittendstofallbetweenthenaturalandsocialsciences.Thiscanleadtocompetitionforleadershipofcitiesinitiativesorelseabenignneglectbyboth,eachexpectingtheothertotakethelead.Thesecondissueisthatofacademicattainment.Oneofthemaingoalsofacademicsistopublishinternational-respectedresearchintheirdisciplinaryfield.Partoftheforesightmethodreliesonresearchofthistypetoinformdecisionmakingprocesses,butagreaterpartofthestoryisaboutthetranslationtoappliedworking.Thisdoesnotnecessarilytickenoughboxesinthemetric-drivenworlduniversitiesareincreasinglybecoming.

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5.5WithinWhitehall,policyinterventionislimitedtoperceivedmarketfailure.Inallotherinstances,barrierstothefreeoperationofthemarketmustberemoved.ThisposessomethingofadilemmafortheForesightMethodfoundedasitisontheideaoflongtermplanningandstrategicdecisionmakingbetweenthefourelementsofcivicsociety:privatesector;publicsector;theacademyandcivicsociety.Thatitnottosaythemarketisabsentfromfuturesplanning,butthatitarguablydoesnotholdthedominantpositionitdoeswithindaytodaypolicyagendas.Forexample,futuresthinkingaroundwhatareoftenreferredtoasthegrandsocietalchallenges(eghealth,demography,sustainability,democracy)requiresstrategieswhichmaynotbeconsideredtobeentirelymarketfriendly.Itmaybethatfutureworkoncityforesightmethodologyneedstobridgethegapbetweenamarketandplannedsolutiontothesocietalchallengesfacingcities.

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6. TheCivicUniversityandCityForesightthroughAnchoring

6.1Goingforward,theForesightFutureofCitiesResearchNetworkhasdemonstratedthroughevidencethatthereisastrongargumentforuniversitiestoplayapivotalroleasacoordinatingandfacilitatingmechanismatthecityscale.ThroughForesightplace-basedmechanisms,universitiescanenhancetheirroleasurban‘anchorinstitutions’,withtheacademiccommunityassistinginurbanknowledgecreationandsharingtoinformpolicyandpracticethathasabearingonthefutureofthecity.

6.2Inthepastfewyears,theconceptoflocal‘anchorinstitutions’hasgrownbeyonditsorigininU.S.urbanpolicyandstartedtogainawidercurrency.Theconceptofanchoringlacksapreciseorconsistentdefinitionbutgenerallyreferstolargelocally-embeddedinstitutions,typicallynon-governmentalpublicsector,culturalorothercivicorganisations,thatareofsignificantimportancetotheeconomyandwidercommunitylifeofthecitiesinwhichtheyarebased.Thepresenceoftheseinstitutionsisunderstoodtogeneratepositiveexternalitiesandrelationshipsthatcansupportor‘anchor’widereconomicactivitywithinthelocality.

6.3AccordingtotheWorkFoundation:

“anchorinstitutionsdonothaveademocraticmandateandtheirprimarymissionsdonotinvolveregenerationorlocaleconomicdevelopment.Nonethelesstheirscale,localrootednessandcommunitylinksaresuchthattheyareacknowledgedtoplayakeyroleinlocaldevelopmentandeconomicgrowth,representingthe‘stickycapital’aroundwhicheconomicgrowthstrategiescanbebuilt.”(TheWorkFoundation,2010,p.3).

6.4IntheForesightprocess,universitiesandcitiescanidentifyassetsandopportunitiesthrough:thedisseminationofexistingdataandintelligencetovariedaudiences;theprovisionofnewdataandintelligence;developingsystemsthinkingacrossfragmentedgovernanceanddeliverybodies;promotingnewnetworkingrelationshipsbetweenactorsandagencies;andundertakingfuturesworkthatrelatesmorereadilytocircumstancesineachcitythanthematicexercisesrelatingtoasingleknowledgedomain.

6.5Suchactivitiesaccordwithagrowingrecognitionofthecivicroleofpublicuniversitiesastheyseektorespondtomajorlongtermsocietalchallengessuchclimateanddemographicchangethathavelocalaswellasglobalmanifestations.Thiscanbeillustratedbythestructuresandinternalinstitutionscreatedbytheuniversitiesinthisnetwork:UCL-SustainableCitiesGrandChallenge;Manchester-Cities@Manchester;Liverpool-HeseltineInstitute;andNewcastle-SocietalChallengethemes.Theseinternalstructuresareattemptstomarshaltheirresearchthattranscendindividualschoolandfacultydisciplinestoaddresstheinnovativespacesbetweenthemasaresponsetograndsocietalchallenges.

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7. Aproofofconcept

7.1Thisnetworkandtheactivitiesofitsmembershasdelivereda‘proofofconcept’modelforaregionallybasedforesightmethod.Intwooutofthefourcitycases,stableandongoinginstitutionalrelationshipshavebeendevelopedbetweenthefoursectors:university,publicsector,privatesectorandcivilsociety.Moreworkneedstobeundertakentounderstandthebarriersthatpreventsimilarcapacitybuildingtooccurinothercities.However,pursuingforesightlongtermthinkingincitiesisnotstraightforwardinobjectiveorpractice.Constantmanagementofrelationshipsandpartnerships,togetherwitharequirementtoraisethinkingandexpectationsbeyondnarrowagendasandpoliticalshorttermism,ispartoftheprocess;andforeverysuccessinthisregardtherewillalsobesetbacks.Thesesetbacksareonlytobeexpectedwhenseekingtoattemptaproofofconcept;indeedtheexperiencefromsetbacksisoftenmorevaluablethantheexperienceofsuccess.Whatisimportant,however,isthataworkingandreplicablemodelofregionalforesightcanbepursued,developedandadoptedbyothers.