UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative Dr. Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca October 2008

UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative

Dr. Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca

October 2008

UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION

UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 2

The need for foresight as instrument for policy making

What is foresight? Why foresight is used? Overview of foresight methods Brief history of foresight’s use How to do the exercise UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative

Structure of the presentation



Industrial policy in the context of open innovation

Concept of innovation ecosystem (open innovation system)

Convergence of innovation and industrial policy in the context of knowledge economy

Emerging reorientation of innovation policy with new emphasis upon demand-side policies

Foresight role in creating shared strategic vision of the future



Thinking about the Future

Who Would Have Imagined in the Late 1980s …

• the collapse of the Soviet Union and Communism?

•a decade-long recession in Japan?

• the rise of the Internet?

• financial crash is the USA?

The future is impossible to predict

Assumptions about the future are inevitable

There is no alternative to thinking about future alternatives



Thinking about the Future - Dealing with projections into the future some biases still prevail...

Absorbed by the technology itself, the impacts of technologyon societal change are often ignored

Lesson learned:Don‘t be preoccupied too much with technology push,

take a balanced look also at societal contexts and market pull



Technical Feasibility is often equated with market demand

Lesson learned:In a world populated by a clutter of nice technical gadgets, customers

may become very selective and reserved about „disruptive technologies“




The potential for global diffusion of technologies is often overestimated

Lesson learned:Regional and cultural differences matter, understand diversity,

„time logic“ and asynchronities of societies

Org

anis

atio

n of

tran

spor

t m

odes

Modernization StagesPedestrianisation Cart/Rikshaw Motorcycles/Tuk-

Tuk/ScootersBusses/Used Cars/

Passenger VansNew Cars Rail-based

TransitIntellig. Transpor-

tation Systems

SingaporeSingaporeSouth KoreaSouth Korea

TaiwanTaiwanMalaysiaMalaysia

ThailandThailandVietnamVietnam

IndonesiaIndonesiaPhilippinesPhilippines

CambodiaCambodiaLaosLaos




Economy

Energy & Environment

Society, Lifestyles & Values

Demography & Target Groups Consumer Behavior

Internet & Communication

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Business & Industry

Transportation& Mobility

Science & Technology

MERCEDES-BENZ

Products & Services

Regulators

Customers

Partners

Competitors

Regulators

AUTO MARKET

Suppliers

FutureWatch is an annual integrated analysis of trends in the business environment that are shaping the future markets, products, and services of

Mercedes-Benz in Europe, the U.S. and select other regions

FutureWatch is an annual integrated analysis of trends in the business environment that are shaping the future markets, products, and services of

Mercedes-Benz in Europe, the U.S. and select other regions

Future-oriented Monitoring - International and future-oriented analysis of the company´s business environment



Scenario Approach 2003-2013

Emerging Vehicle Markets – Regional Focus

Product Focus

Strategic Futures Research - Identification of opportunities and risks for existing and new products, services and processes



Strategic Marketingand Trend Research

Technology ForesightTechnology Foresight(e.g. Delphi-Studies, Technology Monitoring)

Product Impact AssessmentTechnology Assessment(e.g.Offices for technologyassessment)

Scenarios of FutureSocieties(e.g. Political think tanks)

Global Trends(e.g. World Bank,Worldwatch Institute)

StrategicTechnologyMonitoring

Long term perspective

(Conventionalmarket research

StrategicMarket Research

TechnologyMonitoring

Prospective Economic Analyses

CompetitionAnalysis

Short/medium term perspective

Focus on Markets and Business Environments(economic, political, societal, ecological)

= non-technological driving forces

Focus on Technologies

Today + 10 years + 15 years+ 5 years

Innovation and Technology Analysis

Landscape of Future Studies



Planning – Forecast - ForesightIs there any difference?

Planning is based on theories or doctrines on future developments; involves policy makers and experts; uses shorter time horizons – usually not over 1-5 years

Forecasting tends to assume that there is one probable future, based on extrapolation or projections of past and present tends; it involves only experts; time horizons are less then 10 years, whereas

Foresight assumes that there are numerous possible futures, and that the future is in fact there to be created through the actions the interested stakeholders choose to take today; it uses horizons of 10-20 years.

M.Keenan, R. Seidl da Fonseca

Foresight can use forecasts, as well as contribute to planning, but it should not be confused with either activity.



Weakness of conventional policy formulation

Simple extrapolative prediction (based on forecasting)

Narrow pool of expertise Passive outcomes: “white papers” or policy

documents Limited ownership from the wider stakeholders Proposals are mostly normative Disruptive and innovative trends are difficult to

predict



What is foresight?

B. Martin (1995):- Research foresight is “the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits”

L. Georghiou (1996):- Technology foresight is “a systematic means of assessing those scientific and technological developments which could have a strong impact on industrial competitiveness, wealth creation and quality of life”

The future is „certainly uncertain“, foresight can prepare us for a variety of "futures"



Status of foresight Multiple activities and purposes sharing a name Content focus

– Priority setting– Identifying ways in which future science and technology

could address future challenges for society and identifying potential opportunities

Structural focus (increasing tendency)– Reorienting Science & Innovation system– Demonstrating vitality of S & I system– Bringing new actors into the strategic debate– Building new networks and linkages across fields, sectors

& markets or around problems Content and Structural Goals may be addressed

simultaneously– All above may be at organisational, local, regional,

national or supranational levelsAlso foresight carrying input from S&T futures into wider policy

domains



Typical stakeholders in a Foresight exercise

Foresight is about providing a framework for ongoing DIALOGUEDIALOGUE between various societal actors, such as:

– Government– Industry– Academia - natural & social scientists– Others, e.g. NGOs, trades unions, the media,

banks, schools, the general public, etc.

An important benefit for these actors is mutual (and collective) learning



The context of the Foresight process



Five essential elements

Anticipation and projections of long-term developments

Interactive and participative methods of debate and analysis

Forging new social networks

Elaboration of strategic visions based on a shared sense of commitment

Implications for present-day decisions and actions



Common aims of Foresight

Direction-setting

Determining priorities

Anticipatory intelligence

Informing debate

Increasing stakeholders’ involvement

Building social capital

Building identities

Advocacy

Consensus-generation

…



Common Foresight features

Long-term orientation usually over ten years

Consider a wide-range of factors interdisciplinary approaches

Be interactive draw on knowledge and views from different

sectors and organisations Be institutionalised

creating networks among actors Employ formal techniques

to elicit, structure and synthesise the information



What sorts of results does Foresight create?

Examples of tangible ‘productsproducts’ include: Critical technology lists Baseline and benchmarking studies Scenarios and Visions Delphi survey result databases …

Examples of ‘processprocess’ benefits associated with foresight include: Networking and resultant horizontal linkages Commitment to guiding visions / recommendations Adoption of long-term thinking and Foresight

practices => foresight culture



Classes of Foresight methods Criteria Methods

1. Methods based on eliciting expert knowledge to develop long term strategies

− Delphi method

− Experts panels

− Brainstorming

− Mindmapping

− Scenarios building

− SWOT analysis

2. Quantitative methods that make use of statistics and other data

− Trend extrapolation

− Simulation modelling

− Cross impact analysis

− System dynamics

3. Methods to identify key points of action to determine planning strategies

− Critical/ key technologies

− Relevance trees

− Morphological analysis

− Roadmapping



Overview of some common methods (Loveridge, 1996)

Combinations

of methods

Expertise•

Creativity

InteractionAlignment

Panels ConferencesImpactmatrix

La prospective

Sciencefiction

Brainstorming

Scenario

writing

Essays

DelphiWorkshops



Exploratory approach: what would we expect to happen if this event happens or if that trend develops?

Knowledge about the present

Alternative futures

What if

What if

What if

Normative approach: what to do now to make the „best future“ happen?

Present actions Alternative

futures

What to do

The „best future“

Methods



Application of the foresight methodology

Establishing a transparent structured decision-making process

Introducing a forward-looking attitude – anticipative intelligence

Provoking a creative and motivating decision making

environment

Stimulating a participative approach

Enabling mutual learning and strategic dialogue

Reaching consensus around shared visions

Linking technology and innovation to wider socio-economic issues



Sequencing Methods

Methods are rarely used in isolation; rather, they are used in complementary sequences

Useful to think about steps involved in foresight:1. Enrolment of participants2. Background data gathering, possibly forecasting3. Ideas generation4. Interaction between participants5. Analysis and assessment6. Synthesis and prioritisation7. Dissemination and implementation

Possible sequence: co-nomination, trend extrapolation, bibliometric analysis, expert panels, brainstorming, Delphi, scenarios, multi-criteria decision making, workshops . . .



Examples of foresight exercises

• National level• Company level• Supranational level• UN response



Modern Foresight family tree(National S&T-oriented exercises)

From 1970 Japanese Science and Technology Agency began periodic 30 year forecasts French initiatives in early 1980s Dutch foresight began activity in 1989 US Congress established Critical Technologies Institute in 1991 German and UK exercises major milestones Major upsurge during 1990s, especially in Western Europe and East Asia 2000 – EU New Member States and Latin America



Year Delphi Mixed Panel/scenario 1970s - 30 years in

Japan

1989 Ministry of Economic Affairs Netherlands

1990 1st German 1991 Critical Technologies USA 1992 New Zealand 1993 South Korea Technologies at Threshold of 21st

Century Germany 1994 France

Japan/ Germany Mini Delphi

1st UK TF Programme

1995 100 Key Technologies France 1996 Japan –

German Delphi

Australia Foresight Steering Committee Netherlands 1st Italy Industry Foresight

1997 OPTI Spain Ireland 1998 Austria

Hungary

South Africa New Zealand Sweden

1999 2nd UK TF Programme FUTUR Germany

2000 2nd French 100 Key Technologies Portugal Industrial Association 2nd Italy Industry Foresight

2001 7th Japanese Delphi

Czech Republic Malta, Cyprus, Estonia

2002 Turkey Bulgaria Romania 3rd UK TF Programme

Mutual policylearning – selective national foresightchronology



Company Foresight: Daimler Chrysler

Aim: To support strategy and product development processes

Permanent Foresight capability since 1979: Society and Technology Research Group

Covers anything that impacts on company competitiveness – around 40 studies per year

Time Horizon: typically around 10 years, but variable

Methods: Scenarios

Outcome: strategies sufficiently robust to survive most scenarios



Scenario Process at Daimler Chrysler






UN Secretary General report on “Bridging the Technology Gap between and within Nations”, proposes to governments in developing countries and economies in transition, “involving representatives from industry, academia and public sectors in carrying out comprehensive technology foresight exercises with a view to identifying technologies that are likely to help address pressing socio-economic needs and establish priorities in S&T policy and governmental programmes on research and education”.



Aims

Responding to the member countries’ need for a mid- and long-term development vision

Bringing a more technology-oriented focus into the relevant national and regional knowledge-based institutions

Providing assistance for a more sustainable and innovative development

Fostering economical, environmental and social benefits at national and regional levels



Contribute to enhancing the industrial competitiveness and expand trading potential

Foster economic, environmental and social benefits at national and regional levels

Definition of innovation policies and R&D programmes

Development Objectives



Awareness building and training Summits, Conferences and expert meetings Electronic information exchange facility and

tools Studies and sectoral exercises Financial mechanisms Counterparts and coordination mechanism

(EVC)

Implementation strategy & activities



Foresight as a tool for regional R&D programmes

Enhance quality and effectiveness of foresight through multi-country networking

Reduce costs by sharing common activities

Awareness of global and regional trends

Joint vision and solutions for cross-border problems

Concentration of multi-country production chains

Regional Dimension



Support governments and companies to set up foresight capabilities

Establish a connection between the construction of alternative future visions through foresight exercises and the definition of industrial policies and governance framework

Set up Clearing Houses on Foresight (ex. EVC)

Future UNIDO efforts




Activities



Regional or Multi-country foresight exercises and activities

Capacity Building

Training Programme on Technology Foresight (2001-8)

Summit

Technology Foresight Summit - Budapest, Hungary (2003-7)

Projects

Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific cost (2005-6)

Future of the Andean Products: Medicinal Plants (2006-7)

Future of the Food Industry in 6 CEE countries (2007-9)

Future of the Andean Products: Textiles (2008-2009)



Complex production chains

Special characteristics of the UNIDO approach: Multicountry

Participation of different countries

Plurinational

Multisectorial

Complex production chains



Special characteristics of the UNIDO approach:Productive Chains

ProductsProducts Production

processes

Production

processes

MarketsMarkets

Identification of:

Opportunities for the pluri-national production chains and industries

Required cooperation for technology up-grading

Identification of:

Opportunities for the pluri-national production chains and industries

Required cooperation for technology up-grading



THE FUTURE OF THE FISHERY INDUSTRY

South American Pacific Coast



Marine

Fresh water

Aquaculture

RESOURCES

Intermediate and final agricultural goods

Industrial intermediate goods

Production services

INDUSTRIAL INPUTS

Capital goods

Infrastructure

Factory ships

Seine

Small scale

EXTRACTION

Aquaculture

Canned

Frozen

Cured

PROCESSING

Concentrated

Hydrolysed

Meals and crude oils

HUMAN CONSUMPTION

NON - HUMAN CONSUMPTION

Semi-refined oils

Balanced food

Refined oils

Animal feed

Fishery Productive chain



Regional Situation

National productive chains: fleets, industry, markets

Strengh and weakness of the environment

Regional Panel

National DiagnosticsNational Diagnostics

National Foresight Studies

Regional Panel and Report

Critical Technologies Tools of ActionDecision

Making Processes

National Panels Consultations

MethodologyMethodology



Results/Recommendations

1. Definition of a regional policy

2. Technology up-grading and investment promotion for re-conversion and modernization

3. Creation of new regional center for capability building and technology watch/road mapping

4. Establishing a quality mark of origin for the fish products of the region



THE FUTURE OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

Central and Eastern European Countries



Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe

Project: Healthy and Safe Food for the Future - A Technology Foresight Project in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia

Contract no.: 43005 FutureFood6European Commission – 6th Framework

Starting date: 01 February 2007

Duration: 2 years



Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe - The immediate goal:

to assist the total food chain in Central and Eastern European countries to reach international standards

to enhance European competitiveness as a whole by developing an industry, which is synonymous with safety, diversity, sophistication and products of high quality.



OPTIUNIDO

WIIW

FORESIGHT AND INNOVATION GROUP (FIG)

Committee of high-level national policy-makers

Knowledge institutions on food industry from every participating

country

OPTIUNIDO

HungaryIEHAS

Czech Rep.TC AS CR

SlovakiaBIC Group

CroatiaNWMC

RomaniaUEFISCSU

BulgariaARC Fund

Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe Project team



Work plan

flowchart

Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe - Project strategy:

1. Mobilization of a variety of stakeholders groups2. A socio-economic scenario building exercise 3. Interviews with specialists.4. A survey on key technologies5. Future vision building exercise6. Technology road mapping



WP1 Kick off meeting

WP2 Future scenarios

WP3 Key technologies survey guidelines

WP4 Key Technologies survey analysis

WP5 Future Visions

WP6 Road Mapping

WP7 Policy Recommendations

WP8 Final Conference

WP

10

Pro

ject

coo

rdin

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nd

man

age

me

nt

WP

9 D

isse

min

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ctiv

itie

s

Work plan

flowchart

Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe Work plan Flow



WORK PACKAGES

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2402 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 017 8 0

Workpackages (Lead partner) / Tasks (Deliverables)

WP1 - Kick off meeting (UNIDO)Task 1.1 - Description of scope (D1)Task 1.2 - Criteria for expert selection (D2)WP2 - Future Socio-economic Scenarios (OPTI)Task 2.1 - Scenarios report (D4)WP3 - Design of the key technologies survey and interviews guidelines (IE HAS/w iiw)Task 3.1 - Draft of statements on key technologies and interview guidelines (D5)Task 3.2 - Documentation of national expert panels (D6)Task 3.3 - Final version of interview guidelines (D7)Task 3.4 - Final version of statements for the key technologies questionnaires (D8)Task 3.5 - Electronic questionnaire and reply data base (D9)Task 3.6 - Data base of experts to be interview ed (D10)WP4 -Key technologies survey and interviews - Preliminary results (IE HAS/national partners)Task 4.1 - Data base w ith anw ers from questionnaires (D11)Task 4.2 - Six national reports (D12)Task 4.3 - Documentation of internal review (D13)Task 4.4 - Report on interpretation of results and f irst policy conclusions (D14)WP5 - Future visions (OPTI)Task 5.1 - Report on future visions (D15)WP6 - Road mapping (TC ASCR)Task 6.1 - Documentation from the road mapping w orshop (D16)WP7 - Integration of results. Policy recommendations (w iiw )Task 7.1 - Integrated f inal report and policy recommendations (D17)WP8 - Final conference (UNIDO)Task 8.1 - Conducting the f inal conference (D20)WP9 - Dissemination activities (BIC Group)Task 9.1 - Project w ebsite (D3)Task 9.2 - New sletters publication (D18)Task 9.3 - Manual for SMEs (D19) - in cooperation w ith UNIDOTask 9.4 - Publication of the f inal report (D23)WP10 - Project coordination and management (UNIDO)Task 10.1 - Final w ork plan (D21)Task 10.2 - Progress and coordination reports (D22) - including the preparation of the Manual for SMEs

TOTAL

GANTT Chart

Year 1 Year 2

M.1

M.2

M.3

M.4

M.5

M.6

M.7

M.9 M.10M.8

M.11


Dr. Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca

www.unido.org/foresight

October 2008

Documents

UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative Dr. Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca October 2008