MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 1 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Foresight & Higher Education - Two cases - Dr. Ozcan Saritas* [email protected]

MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight

1Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009

Bucharest

Foresight & Higher Education

- Two cases -

Dr. Ozcan Saritas*[email protected]

*with thanks to Prof. Luke Georghiou who has kindly provided some of these slides



Bucharest

Change and Uncertainty: The context of HE

Peak oil / Climate change / Urbanisation / Terrorism

Gene therapy / stem cell injections / artificial intelligence

How should schools, universities and educational system deal with these changes?

Curricula / Roles of teachers & students

What are the alternative futures for education? – as a subset of broader transformation of society

What future for Universities?



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1. The “new” University of Manchester Victoria University of Manchester and

UMIST merged in October 2004 to form UK’s largest university

The 2015 Vision of the new institution – overall objective set out in Vision Document Manchester 2015

To make the University of Manchester, already an internationally distinguished centre of research, innovation learning and scholarly inquiry, one of the leading universities in the world by 2015.

Aiming for distinctive identity that equalled but did not emulate the UK’s “Golden Triangle” or the US Ivy League



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Strategy Encapsulated in 9 Goals1 High International Standing To establish the University of Manchester as a world renowned centre of

scholarship and research by 2015. To match the leading universities in the world in attracting and retaining teachers, researchers and 'critical mass' research teams of the highest quality. To be a higher education brand synonymous with the finest international standards of academic excellence with pioneering, influential and exciting research and scholarship.

2 World Class Research To establish the University of Manchester by 2015 among the 25 strongest

research universities in the world on commonly accepted criteria of research excellence and performance.

3 Exemplary Knowledge and Technology Transfer4 Excellent Teaching and Learning5 Widening Participation6 Empowering Collegiality7 Efficient, Effective Management9 More Effective Community Service



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2015 Agenda – Key Goals and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Goal 1: High International Standing

Present KPIs Clear evidence of improvement in standing as measured by

reputable international higher education rankings Appointing a number of ‘iconic’ scholars: 5 Nobel Laureates on

staff by 2015, 3 by 2008



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2015 AgendaGoal 2: World Class Research

Initial KPIs 50% staff international quality 2008; 70% 2015 Doubling real research income by 2015 Doubling postgraduate research students and postdocs by

2015

Present modified KPIs Annual increase in share of high impact research publications Doubling real external grant income by 2015 Treble research expenditure by 2015 Double no of PGR students successfully completing and no of

postdocs by 2015



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Progress to Date –Achievements

Two Nobel laureates signed (one paid for by large donation) plus another iconic appointment, several more in pipeline

Research income growth ahead of schedule TARE rose 45% in 3 years

Most popular in terms of student applications – growing when others falling

External recognition – Times Higher and Sunday Times University of the Year in successive years

Biggest mover up the rankings but not enough



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Tracking the ARWU -Academic Ranking of World Universities

World ranking

European ranking

UK ranking

2008 40 6 5

2007 48 9 5

2006 50 9 5

2005 53 12 6

2004* 78* 24* 9*

* VUM only



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Challenges Financial

– Large operating deficit in 2006 (£30m on £601m turnover) had to be eliminated – now back in surplus

– Driven by larger than expected national salary settlements, growth of staff numbers by 2,800, investment ahead of RAE and structural deficit through duplication

– Early retirement and voluntary severance scheme reduced staff (mainly admin) by 630

– Highlights marginal nature of academic finances and vulnerability to shocks meaning must maintain drive for productivity gain and growth of high revenue areas

Balancing teaching and research– Initial push for research gave students impression of neglect – University now launched challenging initiative to re-personalise

undergraduate education while gaining efficiency through e-learning and Graduate Teaching Assistants

– Promotion tracks available for teaching and knowledge transfer specialist as well as conventional careers

Trade off between indicators has to be managed



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2. UK Scenarios Project Dept. of Innov., Univ.s & Skills was formed in 2007 and merged

in to Dept. of Business Innov. & Skills in 2009 Ministers commissioned HSC to run scenarios process to

– Improve robustness of existing policies by acting as a stimulating challenge– Assist in the development of new policies and corporate plans

10 dimensions of uncertainty identified in interaction with expert and stakeholder groups – external and internal– Values and beliefs– Demographics and migration– Economic integration governance and models (“uncertainty whether growth

is to remain steady or whether there will be volatility. Increasing economic interdependence, especially in financial markets, poses regulatory and policy challenges ”)

– Research and innovation; Education and skills Scenario axes

– Global political and economic context– Values in the UK



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Figure Scenario structure



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I ndividualSocial Values

Collective

Glo

bal C

onte

xt

Closed

Open

I nnovation Corporation- led, strong

IPR, R&D moves to China and India

Universities Global and

commercialised, research and

teaching disconnect

Skills Buying talent internationally,

inequalities in UK

Research market-led, mobile

1. Perpetual Motion

I nnovation State-led, weak IPR, open

innovation

Universities Global collaborative,

standardised teaching

Skills Buying talent internationally, up-

skilling the UK

Research Challenge- led, ‘blue skies’

2. Shaken Open

I nnovation Bottom-up, self-sufficiency,

weak IPR

Universities Focus on community and

nation, government-directed

Skills National re-skilling programme,

basic skills return

Research State-led, national challenges

3. Protective Collective I nnovation SME-led, self-sufficiency,

protecting knowledge

Universities A UK market, autonomy,

private HEIs, demand-led, competition

Skills Major skills gap, strong need for

re-skilling, demand-led

Research Private sector-led, immobile

4. Self-Service



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SpecialisationDifferentiation

Competition

Globalisation

New entrants

International mobility

Studentconsumerism

Open innovation

New research technologies

e-learning

Demographicchange

WideningparticipationCooperation

Business

Internationalgovernance

Tuition fees

Insufficientresources

Commercialisation

Drivers of Change for HE

STUDENTNUMBERS

RESEARCH

BUSINESS

INTERNATIONALISATION

Application in University of Manchester



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University of Manchester Scenarios Our attempt to translate the implications for this institution

Again seeking plausible stories not predictions

Our previous foresight had looked at intellectual and structural trends with the aim of identifying emerging priority themes

But sense of impending crisis means need to think beyond the business plan…

Most recent round articulated UK scenarios for our own environment



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Global Player

Perpetual Motion

– Global PlayerResearch – mainly private sector and much from overseas and for arts and humanities from donationsTeaching – consumer focus delivered internationally via blended learningKnowledge transfer – one third of income from CPD



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Global Alliances

Shaken Open

– Global AlliancesResearch – Large scale challenge projects with investigator driven funding only for eliteTeaching – Global alliances with franchising; Student idealism demands engagement with social issuesKnowledge transfer – weak IPR driving CPD market for updated skills



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Manchester as a National and Regional Institution

Protective Collective

Research – Dual support surviving at low level; strong national focus in research agendaTeaching – Loss of overseas markets, national skills agenda dominates; widening participationKnowledge transfer – focus on national and regional markets



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Manchester Downsized and Downmarket

Self-Service

Research – Low level but some self-support through earnings from entrepreneurshipTeaching – Substantial downsizing in home and overseas markets; Part-time and blended learning dominateKnowledge transfer – CPD market mainly for individual upskilling



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How are we using the foresight?

Strategic review looking at viability of activities

Profiling all staff in terms of research

Financial scenarios to anticipate potential negative public sector financial environment as post-election government seeks to repair public finances

Strong efforts in areas of discretionary income growth– Executive Education/Continuing Professional Development



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BUIM: Bosphorus University, Engineering Faculty The Department of Civil Engineering

PYY: Istanbul Technical University, Architecture Faculty, The Division of Project and Construction Management

3. PYY2023 & BUIM2023 Foresight Exercises



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Five Goals:

1. Thinking about the long term future in a holistic manner, and

2. Developing future visions for the construction industry and PYY and BUIM departments, with

3. A wide participation, to

4. Identify future R&D and T&E areas, and to

5. Develop research and teaching policies and strategies for long, medium and short terms.

PYY2023 & BUIM2023 Goals



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BUIM2023PYY2023

Pre-projectwork

Post-projectwork

Projectwork

Project proposal documents

Construction2023 survey

[email protected]

Keyword analysis

Project proposal and goal definition

Systems elements and relationships

Construction2023

BUIM2023 & PYY2023

Roadmapping

Decisions for today

Project Reports

Comparison

Further actions



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1. New R&D and teaching areas

2. New PhD and MSc topics

3. New curricula for 2010, 2015 & 2020

4. Optimisation of research and teaching potential

5. New recruitments (2007-2010 alternative energy sources)

6. Selection criteria for the employment of new researchers and research students

7. Collaborations needed with other disciplines

8. New infrastructure needs

9. Future development directions

10. “Know theyselves” More effective communication

Outputs & Outcomes



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References

Georghiou. L. (2009). Strategy to Join the Elite: Merger and the 2015 Agenda at the University of Manchester, in McKelvey M and Holmen M (eds) Learning To Compete In European Universities - From Social Institution to Knowledge Business Edward Elgar.

Saritas, O. (2006). Systems Thinking for Foresight, PhD Thesis, PREST, University of Manchester.



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End of presentation..

Dr. Ozcan [email protected]

Documents

MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 1 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Foresight & Higher Education - Two cases - Dr. Ozcan Saritas* [email protected]