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ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 1
2014 RTP Inputs and Assumptions
May 20, 2014
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 2
Outline
Updates to 2014 RTP
Next steps
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 3
Updates to 2014 RTP: Load
Old load forecasting methodology produced a load forecast
which required minor adjustments to align with the planning
weather zones
New load forecasting methodology uses inputs which are
consistent with weather zone mapping used in planning
model
New Load levels are marginally different to the previous
values.
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 4
Updates to 2014 RTP: Non-conforming load identification
RTP Scope document described the methodology to identify non-conforming load as “ERCOT will identify “Flat” load by examining the eight 2013 Data Set A seasonal cases. Any loads that of the eight seasonal loads have a maximum load value to minimum load value of 1.3 or lower will be considered Flat.”
The new process fine tunes identification of such loads by relying more on the TDSP provided data obtained from the operations model.
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 5
New RTP Load Levels
Year Coast East Far West NorthNorth
CentralSouth
Central South West NCP2015 25279 2642 3014 1667 25917 13124 6346 2336 803272016 25701 2672 3195 1707 26276 13495 6534 2422 820012017 25999 2682 3356 1752 26629 13837 6721 2407 833832018 26366 2693 3468 1747 26978 14209 6904 2453 848172019 26667 2702 3604 1802 27322 14547 7087 2470 862012020 26953 2726 3708 1827 27664 14869 7271 2479 87497
Year Coast EastFar
West NorthNorth
CentralSouth
Central South West NCP2015 25279 2802 3014 1667 25417 13131 6512 2336 801592016 25701 2809 3195 1707 25765 13495 6703 2422 817962017 25989 2819 3338 1731 26124 13848 6877 2425 831512018 26366 2826 3468 1747 26463 14209 7086 2453 846182019 26667 2831 3586 1779 26775 14563 7268 2488 859562020 26953 2837 3690 1803 27092 14888 7453 2497 87213
Note: The above tables represents the higher-off the SSWG and 90 th percentile load levels. The numbers in red are 90th percentile values
RTP load presented in previous meeting
New RTP load level
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 6
Generation Updates
714 MW of Bertron units have been added to the mothball list based on the May Capacity Demand and Reserves report
Horse Hollow 1 (HH1) will be connected to Bluff Creek (West) instead of Kendall (south). The rest of the Horse Hollow plants will be connected to Kendall (south)
Project Total Cap Type County Year updated
Weather Zone
Windthorst 2 65 Wind Archer 2015 North
Stephens Ranch Wind Energy Phase b
177 Wind Borden 2015 Far West
Panhandle Wind 2 182 Wind Carson 2017 North
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 7
Updated NCP Load-Generation Balance Summary
YearLoad*+ Loss Generation** Margin Imbalance
2020 89,564 79,272 1,375 11,667 2019 88,236 79,071 1,375 10,540 2017 85,351 80,151 1,375 6,574 2015 82,217 79,577 1,375 4,014
*Load on this table is the NCP load using higher-of the SSWG or 90th
percentile forecast**This includes generation available as per planning guide section 6.9 with wind and solar dispatched as per the RTP scope with no adjustments to address the imbalance
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 8
Updated study regions in 2014 RTP
+ Wind output outside study region increased up to the 25 th percentile output* Outside load will be scaled from the “higher-of” load levels
Year 2015 RTP load = 80327 MW 2017 RTP load = 83383 MW
Study Regions NNC WFW SSC EC NNC WFW SSC EC
Wind Output Outside Study Region+ (MW) 1114 781 953 1377 1174 857 982 1453
Mothball Generation On (MW)
1242 727 1242 515 1242 727 1242 515
Outside Scaling Percent* 96% 96% 96% 95% 92% 93% 93% 90%
Study Region Load (MW) 27584 5350 19470 27922 28381 5763 20558 28681
Year 2019 RTP Load = 86201 MW 2020 RTP Load= 87497 MW
Study Regions NNC WFW SSC EC NNC WFW SSC EC
Wind Output Outside Study Region+ (MW) 1174 857 954 1453 1174 857 977 1453
Mothball Generation On (MW)
1242 727 1242 515 1242 727 1242 515
Outside Scaling Percent* 85% 88% 87% 84% 83% 87% 85% 82%
Study Region Load (MW) 29124 6074 21634 29369 29491 6187 22140 29679
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 9
Next steps
