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ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 1
2014 RTP Inputs and Assumptions-Updated
April 22, 2014
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 2
Outline
Initial 2014 RTP case overview
Generation summary
Weather year selection for wind and load
in economic analysis
Hydro dispatch in economic analysis
Updates to the RTP scope
Next steps
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 3
Initial 2014 RTP case overview
The initial 2014 RTP summer peak cases for years
2015, 2017, 2019 and 2020 were created per the
RTP scope
“Higher-of” load was used in the summer peak case
Generation was added and retired per the planning
guide and RTP scope
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 4
NCP Load-Generation Balance Summary
YearLoad* +
Loss Generation** Margin Imbalance2020 89383 80503 1375 10255
2019 88043 80302 1375 9116
2017 85069 81382 1375 5062
2015 82028 80285 1375 3118
*Load on this table is the NCP load using higher-of the SSWG or 90th percentile forecast**This includes generation available as per planning guide section 6.9, with wind and solar dispatched as per the RTP scope with no adjustments to address the imbalance
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 5
Generator addition/retirement summarySite Name County COD Fuel
MW For Grid
Sufficient Financial Security Received
2015 2017 2019 2020
Panda Temple Power Bell Aug-14 GAS 717 Yes Yes Yes Yes YesJ.T. Deely 1 & 2 Bexar N/A COAL 845 N/A (Retired in 2018) Yes Yes No NoStephens Ranch Wind Energy Phase 1
Borden Oct-14 WIND 201 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Mesquite Creek Borden Jan-15 WIND 249 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Longhorn Energy Center Briscoe Dec-14 WIND 361 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Cameron County Wind Cameron Jun-15 WIND 165 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Panhandle Wind Carson Jul-14 WIND 218 Yes Yes Yes Yes YesConway Windfarm Carson Dec-14 WIND 600 Yes Yes Yes Yes YesHereford Wind Castro Sep-14 WIND 200 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Wake Wind EnergyFloyd and Crosby
Apr-15 WIND 299 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
CPV Rattlesnake Den Ph 1
Glasscock May-15 WIND 201 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Miami Wind 1 Project Gray Jul-14 WIND 289 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Panda Sherman Power Grayson Aug-14 GAS 720 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Deer Park Energy Center Harris Jul-14 GAS 190 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Rentech Project Harris Aug-14 GAS 15 Yes Yes Yes Yes YesKeechi Wind 138 kV Joplin
Jack Dec-14 WIND 102 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sendero Wind Energy Project
Jim Hogg Feb-15 WIND 78 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Baffin (Penascal Wind Farm 3)
Kenedy Dec-14 WIND 202 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
OCI Alamo 4 Kinney Aug-14 SOLAR 38 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 6
Generator addition/retirement summary
Site Name County COD Fuel MW For GridSufficient Financial Security Received
2015 2017 2019 2020
Green Pastures Knox Feb-15 WIND 300 Yes Yes Yes Yes YesFerguson Replacement Project
Llano Jul-14 GAS 570 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Goldthwaite Wind Energy
Mills Apr-14 WIND 149 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Spinning Spur Wind Two
Oldham Jun-14 WIND 161 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Spinning Spur Wind Three
Oldham Dec-14 WIND 194 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Barilla Solar Pecos Nov-14 SOLAR 30 Yes Yes Yes Yes YesRoute66 Wind Randall Dec-14 WIND 150 Yes Yes Yes Yes YesLos Vientos III Starr Dec-14 WIND 200 Yes Yes Yes Yes YesPanda Temple Power II
Bell Aug-15 GAS 717 Yes No Yes Yes Yes
Briscoe Wind Farm Briscoe Dec-15 WIND 300 Yes No Yes Yes YesPanhandle Wind 2 (Phase 2)
Carson Nov-15 WIND 182 Yes No Yes Yes Yes
Antelope Station* Hale Jun-16 GAS 359 Yes No No No NoPatriot (Petronilla) Wind
Nueces Aug-15 WIND 178 Yes No Yes Yes Yes
Midway Farms Wind San Patricio Oct-15 WIND 161 Yes No Yes Yes Yes
*359 MWs of antelope station has financial commitment, but ERCOT is working to understand the configuration and availability for ERCOT reliability cases.
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 7
Generators not added to the cases
Site Name County COD Fuel MW For GridSufficient Financial Security Received
Windthorst 2 Archer Dec-14 WIND 65 No
Stephens Ranch Wind Energy Phase b Borden Apr-15 WIND 177 No
Freeport LNG PreTreatment Facility Brazoria Jun-17 GAS 11 NoJumbo Road Wind Castro Apr-15 WIND 300 NoSouth Clay Windfarm Clay Dec-14 WIND 200 NoLogans Gap Wind I Comanche May-15 WIND 200 NoMoore Wind 1 Crosby Aug-14 WIND 149 NoGoldsmith Peaking Facility Ector Jun-15 GAS 408 NoTexas Clean Energy Project Ector Jun-18 COAL 240 NoSouth Plains Wind I Floyd Jul-15 WIND 200 NoSouth Plains II Floyd Dec-15 WIND 300 NoPHR Peakers Galveston Apr-15 GAS 390 NoCPV Rattlesnake Den Ph 2 Glasscock May-16 WIND 150 NoMiami Wind 1 Project Gray Aug-15 WIND 111 NoPampa Wind Project Gray Mar-17 WIND 500 NoAntelope Station CT1 Hale Jul-16 GAS 197 NoAntelope Station CT2 Hale Jul-16 GAS 197 NoFriendswood Energy Generation Harris Sep-15 GAS 316 NoPondera King Power Project Harris Jun-17 GAS 1629 NoGunsight Mountain Howard Aug-15 WIND 120 NoCobisa-Greenville Hunt Dec-16 GAS 1792 NoForney Power Plant Upgrade Kaufman Aug-14 GAS 34 NoWhite Camp Solar Kent Oct-14 SOLAR 100 NoFGE Texas 1 Mitchell Jun-16 GAS 799 NoMariah Wind Parmer Oct-14 WIND 232 NoMariah Wind Parmer Dec-15 WIND 200 NoMariah Wind Parmer Dec-16 WIND 168 NoComanche Run Wind Swisher Dec-16 WIND 500 NoMustang Solar Project Travis Dec-15 SOLAR 30 No
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 8
Study regions in 2014 RTP
2014 RTP cases will have four study areas
North and North Central
Coast and East
South and South Central
West and Far West
Each study region will have its load at the “higher-
of” SSWG or ERCOT 90th percentile load levels
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 9
Study regions in 2014 RTPYear 2015 RTP load (80512 MW) 2017 RTP load (83171 MW)
Study regions N, NC W, FW S, SC E, C N, NC W, FW S, SC E, C
Wind output outside of study region (MW)+ 464 810 889 1335 1137 871 889 1370
Mothball generation on (MW)
528 88 603 590 528 88 603 590
Outside scaling %* 95% 97% 97% 96 % 92% 94% 93% 92%
Study region load (MW) 27084 5350 19636 28081 27876 5763 20714 28818
Year 2019 RTP load (85963 MW) 2020 RTP load (87219 MW)
Study regions N, NC W, F W S, SC E, C N, NC W, FW S, SC E, C
Wind output outside of study region (MW)+ 1137 871 867 1370 1137 871 889 1370
Mothball generation on (MW)
528 88 603 590 528 88 603 590
Outside scaling %* 85% 89% 87% 86% 84% 88% 85% 84%
Study region load (MW) 28577 6074 21815 29498 28919 6187 22323 29790
+ Wind output outside study region increased up to the 25 th percentile output* Outside load will be scaled from the “higher-of” load levels
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 10
Load and wind profile analysis
Economic analysis uses 8760 profile for load (by weather zone) and wind (by plant site)
Normalized load and wind patterns tend to smooth out peaks and valleys experienced in real-time conditions and don’t necessarily correlate well to each other
ERCOT plans to use a representative “weather year” for load and wind profiles in the economic analysis based on an analysis of historical weather year data
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 11
Weather year selection for economic analysis
ERCOT 50th percentile forecast is derived from twelve years worth of historic weather and load data
ERCOT planning obtained twelve load forecasts for 2017 (sample year) using weather data from 2002-2013 as the only variable
Load forecast for 2008 weather year was ignored because of the impacts of hurricane Gustav
Annual energy and peak load levels for each of the twelve sample forecasts were compared to the official forecast
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 12
Annual energy comparison
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 13
Annual peak comparison
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 14
Weather year selection for economic analysis
Based on the correlation analysis the 2006 weather
year is the most correlated to the 2014 official 50th
percentile forecast with respect to both the peak and
monthly energy
AWS Truepower wind profiles from 2006 will be used
in 2014 economic analysis
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 15
Hydro dispatch in economic analysis
Hydro dispatch from 2003 through 2013 was analyzed
Data shows that most hydro units have some output, even in
2011
ERCOT plans to use a 8760 profile for each hydro unit
The 8760 profile will be created based on historical dispatch
for the representative weather year
ERCOTs representative weather year analysis identified
2006 to be the representative year
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 16
Updates to RTP scope
Solar plant dispatch in reliability analysis has been changed to 70% from a previous 50%. This was done based on a percentile/confidence analysis using Solar curves data (similar to what was done for wind)
The horse hollow plant will still be connected to Kendall and not to West Texas.
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 17
Next steps
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 18
Update 1: Annual Wind Energy comparison
There was a request to compare annual wind energy across the years. As seen below the year selected for 2014 RTP economic analysis (2006) is an acceptable representative wind year.
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 19
Update 2: Wind dispatch inside and outside the study region
Dispatch for wind units as percentage of the generator capacity
Wind ZoneInside the study
regionOutside the study
region
Coast 12.28% 20.24%
North 0.93% 3.08%
Panhandle 2.80% 7.88%
South 6.60% 12.98%
West 2.38% 6.82%
There was a request to see the percentage wind output used in the RTP cases inside and outside the study region.
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 20
Update 3: Hydro dispatch
There was a request to compare Hydro dispatch for the selected year 2006 to the recent drought years. As seen below, the dispatch for 2006 is a reasonable representation of hydro dispatch in an average weather year.
ERCOT PUBLIC5/20/2014 21
Update 4: Demand in April in 2006There was a request to compare monthly energy forecast using 2006 weather year to the official. This was based on the recollection that, the month of April 2006 had seen higher than expected energy demands. Here is a comparison of the 2006 monthly energy to the official forecast for 2017. As seen below, 2006 is a good representative year, even with April energy using the 2006 weather is slightly higher.