EKOS poll - Oct. 14, 2010

8/8/2019 EKOS poll - Oct. 14, 2010

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www.ekospolitics.ca

C ONSERVATIVES W IDEN T HEIR M ODEST LEAD IN A P LACID

P OLITICAL E NVIRONMENT LARGE 2- WEEK SAMPLE ALLOWS FOR DETAILED A NA LYSIS OF REGIONA L AND DEMOGRAPHIC

ANA TOM Y

[Ottawa – October 14, 2010] – The ConservativeParty has managed to widen its lead in the finalweek of polling to a near seven-point advantageover the moribund Liberals. While still a closerace, the recent movements favour theConservatives. In the first week of the polling

period, their lead was a slenderer four points butthe pattern is clearly one of the Conservativesreturning to a more comfortable lead. The othernotable poll finding is that the NDP haverecovered to more comfortable 16-point territoryafter a brief flirtation with the low teens. Thesemovements are not dramatic and follow thefamiliar ebb and flow of Conservative and Liberalfortunes over the past year.

Because of the relatively high stability in the

electorate, we are using the entire two-week panel of nearly 5,000 cases to provide a veryreliable portrait of the demographic and regionalpatterns of voter support at this time.

HIGHLIGHTS• Nationa l federal vote intention:

¤ 34.4% CPC¤ 27.8% LPC¤ 15.8% NDP¤ 10.4% Green¤ 9.3% BQ¤ 2.3% other

• irection of country:D¤ 50.6% right direction¤ 37.4% wrong direction¤ 12.0% DK/ NR

• :Direction of governm ent¤ 42.1% right direction¤ 45.4% wrong direction¤ 12.5% DK/ NR

Please note that the methodology is provided at the end o th s document f i .

There is nothing very surprising in the regional patterns, but they do point to the key challengesfor the parties as they ponder an election in the coming year. The Conservatives are extremelystrong in their Alberta fortress and continue to exert dominance over the Manitoba andSaskatchewan electorate. British Columbia remains a tight three-way race with evidence of greater dissatisfaction with federal direction than the rest of the west. The Conservatives have,however, carved out a significant lead and the Liberals now trail by ten points. Ontario will be the

key to success in the next election and the two main rivals for power are locked in a virtualstalemate at around 36 points each.

More and more, Quebec appears to be a major problem for the Conservative Party, as they havereturned to the low teens following a brief boost after the Quebec arena hopes. The Liberals arethe stronger federalist option in Quebec, but the Bloc is looking to be, by far, the most attractivevoter option. The Atlantic is leaning Liberal, but both the Conservatives and the NDP haveprospects there.

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The demographic profile shows Conservative strength very much focussed among Anglophones,seniors, men, and those born in Canada. The Liberals, in contrast, do best with non-Canadianborn and the university educated. Notably, the major shift of the university educated to theLiberals seems to have stopped and even reversed slightly. Women voters are underwhelmedwith either of the two main parties. Finally, young voters are not showing any clear attraction toany of the parties although they do tend to be much more favourably inclined to the Green Party.

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Top Line Results:

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission

Fed eral vote intention: Oc tober 6-12

BASE: Decided voters; October 6-12, 2010 (n=1,569)

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

34.4

27.8

15.8

10.4 9.3

2.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

CPC LPC NDP GP BQ OtherOther

Note: The da ta on fed eral vote intention are based on de cide d voters only.Our survey also finds that 14.0% of Ca nadia ns are und ecid ed/ ineligible to vote.


0

10

20

30

40

50

Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10

Line6

2008Election

Resul t s

Note: The d ata on fed eral vote intention a re based o n de cide d a nd lea ning voters only. Our survey also finds that 14.0% of Canad ians are undecided /ineligible to vote.

Other

BASE: Decided voters; most recent data point October 6-12, 2010 (n=1,569)

Weekly trac king of federal vote intentionQ. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

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30

40

50

60

May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10

Wrong direction Right direction

BASE: Canadians; most recent data point October 6-12, 2010 (n=half sample)

Direc tion of c ountry

Q. All things considered, would you say the country is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?


30

40

50

60

May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10

Wrong direction Right direction

BASE: Canadians; most recent data point October 6-12, 2010 (n=half sample)

Direc tion of go vernmentQ. All things considered, would you say the Government of Canada is moving in the right direction or the wrong

direction?

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Fed eral vote intention: British Co lumb ia

BASE: Decided voters in British C olumbia; September 29-October 12, 2010 (n=385)


31.7

21.2

27.5

15.1

4.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

CPC LPC NDP GP OtherOther

Note: Because of the relatively high stability in the elec torate, we are using the en tire two -week pa nel of ne arly 5,000 cases to provide a very reliable po rtrait of the de mog raphic a nd regiona l pa tterns of voter supp ort at this time. We will be returning to focu sing on the seco nd we ek in our next release.

The d ata on fed eral vote intention are b ased on dec ided and leaning voters only. Our survey also finds that 14.3% of British Columb ia residents are undec ided /ineligible to vote.


Federal vote intention: Alberta

BASE: Decided voters in Alberta; September 29-October 12, 2010 (n=387)


56.4

19.5

9.1 10.04.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70



The d ata on fed eral vote intention a re ba sed o n dec ided and leaning vo ters only. Our survey also finds that 10.6% of Alberta residents are undec ided /ineligible to vote.

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Fed eral vote intention: Manitob a/ Saskatc hewa n

BASE: Decided voters in Manitoba/Saskatchewan; September 29-October 12, 2010 (n=254)


46.2

22.917.6

8.64.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60



The d ata on fed eral vote intention a re ba sed o n dec ided and leaning vo ters only. Our survey also finds that 16.3% of Manitob a/ Saskatchewa n residents are undec ided /ineligible to vote.


Federal vote intention: Ontario

BASE: Decided voters in Ontario; September 29-October 12, 2010 (n=1,732)


35.7 36.1

15.8

10.5

1.90

10

20

30

40

50



The d ata on fed eral vote intention a re ba sed o n dec ided and leaning vo ters only. Our survey also finds that 13.3% of Onta rio residents are undec ided /ineligible to vote.

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Fed eral vote intention: Quebec


14.6

23.0

10.6 11.0

38.2

2.7

0

10

20

30

40

50


BASE: Decided voters in Quebec; September 29-October 12, 2010 (n=1,025)

Note: Because of the relatively high stability in the elec torate, we are using the entire two -week pa nel of ne arly 5,000 cases to provide a very reliable po rtrait of the de mog raphic a nd regiona l pa tterns of voter supp ort at this time. We will be returning to focu sing on the seco nd we ek in our next release.

The da ta on fed eral vote intention are ba sed on d ecid ed a nd leaning voters only. Our survey also finds that 13.8% of Queb ec residents are undec ided /ineligible to vote.


Fed eral vote intention: Atlantic Cana da

BASE: Decided voters in Atlantic Canada; September 29-October 12, 2 010 (n=271)


32.234.0

22.0

9.6

2.2

0

10

20

30

40

50



The d ata on fed eral vote intention a re ba sed o n dec ided and leaning vo ters only. Our survey also finds that 17.4% of Atlantic Canad a residents are unde cided/ ineligible to vote.

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Fed eral vote intention: AgeQ. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

23.3

41.8

23.6

31.9

19.5

12.9

20.9

5. 6

9 .5

6. 0

0

10

20

30

40

50

Youth (under 25) Seniors (65 and over)

CPC LPC NDP GP BQ

BASE: Decided voters who are seniors or youth; September 29-October 12, 2010 (n=1,127)


The d ata on fed eral vote intention a re ba sed o n dec ided and leaning vo ters only. Our survey also finds that 14.9% of youth a nd 13.1% of seniors are und ecid ed /ineligible to vo te.


Fed eral vo te intention: Plac e of b irthQ. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

32.831.4

26.2

38.1

15.8 16.3

11.29.6

11.0

1.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

Canada Outside Canada

CPC LPC NDP GP BQ

BASE: Decided voters; September 29-October 12, 2010 (n=4,054)


The da ta on fed eral vote intention are ba sed o n dec ided and leaning vote rs only. Our survey also finds that 13.8% of Cana dians are undecid ed/ineligible to vote.

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Fed eral vote intention: Educ ation


35.733.8

29.4

21.3

25.8

34.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

High school College University

CPC LPC



The da ta on fed eral vote intention are based on d ecided and leaning voters only.

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Methodology:

EKOS’ weekly tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology,which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone,rather than telling them to an operator.

In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cellphone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with both alandline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households. Thisdual frame yields a near perfect unweighted distribution on age group and gender, somethingalmost never seen with traditional landline RDD sample or interviewer-administered surveys.

The field dates for this survey are October 6 – October 12, 2010 1. In total, a random sample of 1,832 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of 1,569decided voters). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-2.3 percentagepoints, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., errormargins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statisticallyweighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canadaaccording to Census data.

1 Please note that these dates are not inclusive of weekends or holidays, as we do not survey on Saturday or Sunday, nor do wesurvey on Thanksgiving.

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Annex I:


Fed eral vote intention: Sep tembe r 29-Oc tober 5



31.8

27.6

16.5

11.2

9.7

3.2

0

10

20

30

40

50


Note: The d ata on fed eral vote intention are b ased on d ecided and leaning voters only. Our survey also finds that 13.6% of Cana dians are undecided /ineligible to vote.


Fed eral vote intention: Sep tembe r 29-Oc tober 12 (2-we ek roll-up)



32.5

28.2

15.9

11.09.5

2.9

0

10

20

30

40

50


Note: The d ata on fed eral vote intention are b ased on d ecided and leaning voters only. Our survey also finds that 13.8% of Cana dians are undecided /ineligible to vote.

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EKOS poll - Oct. 14, 2010