Voting IntentionTracking Poll

Oct 2010

Methodology and Weighting

RED C interviewed a random sample of 1002 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 18th & 20th Oct 2010.

A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered.

Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile.

Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the current recall for how people voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results, and weights the data to halfway between the two.

Finally vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 4 to 10 are included as being those who will actually go and vote.

SUNDAY BUSINESS POST – 24th Oct 2010 - Opinion Poll

 

Even the loyal Fianna Fail voters start to desert the party

Today's poll sees Fianna Fail drop to its lowest share of the first preference vote since we began polling seven years ago, securing just 18% overall. This is a decline of 6% in just one month, and suggests the fact that the hole in the budget deficit is far greater than anticipated, has dealt the party another significant blow.

The Green Party do appear to gain some credit for trying to arrange cross party consensus on the budget deficit, increasingly their share of the first preference vote back up to above 4%. Fianna Fail are not afforded such grace for their part in the cross party discussions, perhaps as they appeared to have gone into them reluctantly.

Instead events over the past month appear to have been the last straw for many even quite loyal Fianna Fail voters. Given all that has gone before, we had become accustomed to their being a die hard group of Fianna Fail voters who would support the party come what may, and this appeared to leave them with support levels at least in the low twenties. Today's poll is therefore another watershed in the historical political landscape, and while they may well bounce back to previous core levels, that barrier of decline has finally been broken.

Labour are the main gainers in today's poll. Support for the party increases by 4% to leave them securing 27% share of the first preference vote overall. RED C polls have never shown Labour as the largest party in the state, but this poll does see them move back comfortably into second place behind Fine Gael.

Fine Gael retain their lead party position, securing 32% of the first preference vote, an increase of 1% since last month, and around where the party has been since the failed heave by Richard Bruton. While not at the highs seen earlier in the year, it still leaves them as the largest party in the state by some distance.

Sinn Fein secure 9% of the first preference vote, again in line with recent surveys, although it is down 1% since last month. Finally, Independents increase their share, securing 10% of the first preference vote. This is also up 1% since last month and the best recorded for them since November last year.

SUNDAY BUSINESS POST – 24th Oct 2010 - Opinion Poll

A volatile electorate, struggling to find somewhat to lay their hat

In the run up to any election the lesser spotted “floating voter” is frequently pinpointed as being vitally important by political advisors and media circles. The reason for this is that while a large chunk of the population always vote the same way, there are generally a group of voters who change how they will vote from one election to another. This group effectively “decide” the outcome of the election by switching between the main parties.

Currently in Ireland the level of political turmoil is immense. Today's poll sees Labour secure a share of 1 st preference vote in the high 20’s, which would have been unthinkable at the last election. At the same time the Fianna Fail vote has been decimated, with less than half of those who voted for them at the last election stating they would do so again.

These exceptional results suggest that the electorate in Ireland is very volatile at the moment. More than ever therefore, it is important to look beyond the topline 1st preference share of the vote, and try to understand how stable or unstable vote behaviour is, particularly as an election may not be far away.

How loyal are voters anymore?To try and provide a more detailed understanding of vote intention, RED C have tailored an approach used regularly in our analysis for major blue chip international brands to help them understand how to deliver growth by persuading users to be more loyal. The brand ladder analysis for vote intention enables us to determine how solid the suggested support is for each of the main parties, or conversely how much of that support could still waiver.

The main finding from this analysis is that it confirms our suspicions that floating voters are on the increase. Among those that gave us a first preference in this week’s poll, a third state that they are “Not sure who to vote for at the moment, but this party seems the best of any”. Put simply this means that any party could conceivably end up losing a third of the support they have in this poll by the time the election arrives.

To make matters worse for party strategists, only a third of voters claim to be 100% loyal, with the final third of voters suggesting they are likely to vote for the party, but may still change their mind. Taken to its extreme this analysis suggests that up to 2 in 3 voters could potentially still change their mind come an election. This is significantly higher than would have been the case in previous elections.

In reality many of these people may end up voting exactly as they have told us in this poll, but this analysis does suggest that the parties have much to do to really convince people to vote for them. It appears that this is particularly the case for Labour, who having seen the most recent gains among voters in the polls, now need to persuade these people to actually vote for them in the polling booth come election day.

Labour has a similar proportion of loyal voters as seen for other main parties at about a third. However it has a higher proportion of those who state they are supporting them at the moment partly because they “are not really sure who to support”. In fact 2 in 5 of Labour supporters in today’s poll suggest they are “waiverers”. The worst case scenario would be for Labour to lose all these, which could see their share of the first preference vote fall back to more like 15%.

After Labour, those claiming they will vote Independent or Fine Gael are the next most disloyal, perhaps suggesting that there are a lot of former Fianna Fail voters who do not want to vote for them again, but are yet to be 100% convinced by the opposition.

The Green Party too need to encourage a more loyal voter. They have done well in today's poll to regain some share, probably on the back of recent efforts to get cross party consensus on the Budget deficit. But only 1 in 4 claimed voters are really loyal to the party, with a large proportion likely to vote for them, but not certain.

The importance of the economyThe lack of faith in the opposition is further emphasised by our regular measure of voters confidence in the opposition to handle the economy out of the current downturn. A vital measure which, despite growth in the opposition’s share of the vote in today's poll, is actually trending in the wrong direction. Just 1 in 4 voters (25%) say they trust Fine Gael/Labour to manage the public finances out of the current downturn. This is a long way behind the 59% of voters that give these two parties their first preference vote. It is also down 5% since last month, and 10% since February.

While some of the decline may be due to further revelations of quite how bad an economic hole we are in, it still leaves an important disconnect between party support and confidence. This could perhaps explain the electorate’s apparent volatility and lack of loyalty in their support.

 

Are Fianna Fail voters hiding?Another phenomenon that may be impacting on vote intention is the Spiral of Silence, first identified in Germany by Professor Noelle-Neumann in 1974. This theory suggests that when a ruling party becomes so unpopular, it is possible that people interviewed for polls are “too shy” to say that they might vote for the party. So instead they remain either undecided or refuse to tell the interviewer who they will vote for.

It is conceivable that in Ireland today some form of a Spiral of Silence exists among those who may still want to vote Fianna Fail, but are perhaps too shy to tell us. To try and combat this phenomena, rather than just assuming that everyone who is undecided will vote the same way as those that give us a first preference vote; we look at how they voted at the last election.

For our Spiral of Silence analysis we then assume that that 50% of these undecided voters will vote how they voted last time and that the other half will vote along the lines of those who did give us a preference. The impact of this analysis in the latest poll is only on the main three parties, with Fine Gael and Labour support dropping 1% each to 31% and 26% respectively, while Fianna Fail vote increases up to 20%.

Over the next several months in the run up to the election, we will continue to look at both these techniques, along with our standard figures, in order to try and understand the forces at work beneath basic vote intention and so provide a more informed picture to readers.

 

32%

18%

27%

9%

4%

10%

Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

23%

33%

24%

6% 6%

8%

24%

30%

22%

10%

5%

9%

24%

33%

27%

8%

2%

6%

24%

31%

23%

10%

3%

9%

18%

32%

27%

9%

4%

10%

10%

6%

42%

27%

7%

5% Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/

Other

General election 2007

April 2010

May 2010

June 2010

Sept 2010

Oct 2010

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Dec’05

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults 18+)

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

PDs

32%

27%

18%

Independent

Mar’06

Jun’06

Oct’06

Jan’07

Apr’07

May’07

GE2007

Oct’07

Jan’08

Apr’08

Jun’08

10%

Oct’08

Jan’09

4%

Apr’09

GE2002

Sep’09

Nov’09

2006 2007 2008 2009

Mar’10

2010

Sept’10

9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults 18+)

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

PDs

32%

27%

18%

Independent

GE2007

Sep’07

Oct’07

Nov’07

Jan’08

Feb’08

Mar’08

Apr’08

May’08

Jun’08

Sep’08

10%

Oct’08

Nov’08

Jan’09

4%

Feb’09

Mar’09

Apr’09

May’09

May’09

Sep’09

Sep’09

Nov’09

Oct’09

Jan’10

2008 2009

Feb’10

Mar’10

2010

Apr’10

9%

May’10

Jun’10

Sep’10

Oct’10

CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT

Core figures

24th Oct 2010

Excluding undecided

Excluding undecided

& Rounded

2007 Election Results

% % % %

Fine Gael 26 31.77 32 27

Fianna Fáil 15 26.81 27 42

Labour 22 18.01 18 10

Sinn Féin 7 8.79 9 7

Green Party 4 4.5 4 5

Independents/Others

8 10.07 10 6

Undecided 18

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

32%

27%

18%

9%4%

10%

31%

26%

20%

9%4%

10%

Normal D/K allocation Past Vote weighted D/K Allocation

Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other

Spiral of Silence Allocation of Undecided Voters.If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? (Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

The Spiral of SilenceAssumes that one party is so poorly thought of that respondents are “ashamed” to admit that they will vote for them.

To take account of this we look at how those who are currently undecided or refuse to give a preference voted at the last general election.

We then re-allocate 50% of these to the party they voted last time, and 50% to how the rest claim they will vote this time.

33 29 33 4123 28

39

33 39 3327

31

48 28

34 32 34 3246

24 33

Strength of loyalty/disposition among claimed voters for each of the main parties

LOYALWill definitely vote for that

party at next election

TOTAL%

FG%

FF%

Labour%

Party Preference

%

Ind. /Other

%

LIKELYWill probably vote for that party at next election, but

may change mind

FLOATINGNot sure who to vote for at the moment, but this party

seems the best of any

%

I want to hear how Fine Gael and Labour would cut the budget deficit(Base: All adults 18+)

Agree

555554

505456565556

6346

5955

5056

4471

6151

% AGREE

TOTAL

MaleFemale

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

Fianna FáilFine Gael

LabourSinn Fein

Gender

PartySupport at last GE

Age

Disagree

55%

24%

Don’t know 21%

ABC1

C2DE

DublinROL

MunsterConn/Ulster

Social Class

Region

Confidence in Fine Gael/Labour to manage the public finances out of the current downturn(Base: All adults 18+)

12% 18% 19% 13%

15%16% 11%

12%

19%15%

13%16%

26% 23% 29% 27%

28% 28% 28% 32%

Agree strongly

Agree slightly

Disagree slightly

Disagree strongly

Don’t know

Oct 2009 Feb 2010 Sept 2010

30%34%27%

Oct 2010

25%

45%

33%

22%

I would prefer the government to make cuts in public services rather than raise taxes(Base: All adults 18+)

Don’tknow

Disagree

Agree

45

52

39

34

49

38

49

45

55

49

55

40

40

% Agree

TOTAL

Male

Female

18-24

25-34

35-44

45+54

55-64

65+

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Fein

Gender

PartyPreference

Age

22%

20%

46%

60%

32%

20%

Attitudes to the economic crisis(Base: All adults 18+)

Level of agreement with….. AGREE DISAGREE D/K

NOV 2009I believe Irelands

economy will improve during 2010

OCT 2010I believe Irelands

economy will improve during 2011