Ekos Cbc Survey Results Apr 162

Copyright 2009. No reproduction without permission

The Political Landscape in Canada:Results of an EKOS Survey for the CBC

April 2009


Methodology

This survey was conducted April 8-13, 2009 using EKOS’ unique hybrid internet-telephone research panel, Probit. This panel is randomly recruited from the general population, meaning that, the only way to be included in Probit is through random selection. Unlike opt-in internet-only research panels, Probit supports confidence intervals and error testing.

• In total, a random sample of 1,587 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey.

• A sample of this size provides a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as regions).

• All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.


Canadian Outlook


4741

12

3849

13

0

20

40

60

80

100

Right direction Wrong direction DK/NR

…the country… …the Government of Canada…

Direction of country and government

BASE: Canadians; Apr. 8-13 (n=half sample)

Q. All things considered, would you say [the country/the Government of Canada] is moving in theright direction or the wrong direction?


Wrong

Right

Wrong

Right

DirectionVote Intention

BQGreenNDPLPCCPCOverall

153522188238…the Government

of Canada…635366691349

537161432141

401530427247

…the country…

Direction of country/government by vote intention

Q. All things considered, would you say [the country/the Government of Canada] is moving in theright direction or the wrong direction?

BASE: Canadians; Apr. 8-13 (n=half sample)


0

20

40

60

80

100

2006 2007 2008 2009

Right direction Wrong direction DK/NR

Q. All things considered, would you say that the Government of Canada is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?

Tracking direction of the Government of Canada

BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Canadians; most recent data point is from Apr. 8-13 (half sample)

3849

13

Right directionWrong directionDK/NR


63

9

28

4352

50

20

40

60

80

100

"Careful approach" "Bold new vision" DK/NR

Perceived Preferred

Perceived vs. preferred government approach

BASE: Canadians; Apr. 8-13 n=1587

Q. Which of the following BEST describes the way the Government of Canada is currently operating? Is it following a careful, steady-as-she-goes approach or providing a bold new vision for the future of the country? And which way would you PREFER the Government of Canada to operate?


2

37

17

45

0 20 40 60 80 100

Health of democracy in Canada

8

40

33

19

0 20 40 60 80 100

Healthy

Neither

Unhealthy

DK/NR

Q. How would you rate the overall health of democracy at the federal level in Canada?

Q. And compared to 20 years ago, would you say the health of democracy at the federal level in Canada is better, worse, or about the same?

Better

The same

Worse

DK/NR

BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Canadians; Apr. 8-13 n=1587


The Political Landscape in Canada


Vote intention

ATLQCONSK/MBABBC/TERNational

19.311.714.828.55.823.815.5

--39.5--------9.4

8.84.910.80.79.77.58.1

39.633.042.039.125.034.636.7

32.410.932.431.759.534.030.2

8.55.74.310.37.86.02.5Margin of error:

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Decided voters; Apr. 8-13 n=1476


Current vote intention vs. past election results

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Dec. 2-3, 2008 Jan. 15-17, 2009 Apr. 8-13, 2009

C

L

N

G

B2006ElectionResults

2008ElectionResults

BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Decided voters; Apr. 8-13 n=1476


9 1525

47

50

20

40

60

80

100

As soon aspossible

Before the endof 2009

In the next 2years

Not until theend of the 4-

year term

DK/NR

Preferred date for next election


Q. If you could choose, when would you want the next federal election to be held?


35

8

17

21

12

11

26

54

46

28

36

7

39

38

37

50

52

82

0 20 40 60 80 100

Elizabeth May

Stephen Harper

Jack Layton

Michael Ignatieff

Gilles Duceppe (Quebec only)*

Barack Obama

DK/NR Disapprove Approve

Job approval ratings for federal political leaders

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the following leaders are handling their jobs?

BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Canadians; Apr. 09 n=1587/*Quebec only (n=329)

Approval Rating Jan. 09

81

63

44

44

35

42


644680361037Jack Layton

474434803350Michael Ignatieff

90315530952Gilles Duceppe*

878588907282Barack Obama

Elizabeth May

Stephen Harper

Leader

39

38

Overall Approval

Vote Intention

BQGreenNDPLPCCPC

4176464918

1028181491

Approval of leaders by vote intention

BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Canadians; Apr. 09 n=1587/*Quebec only (n=329)



7

9

50

57

44

34

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dalton McGuinty**

Jean Charest*

DK/NR Disapprove Approve

Job approval ratings for provincial political leaders


BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Apr. 09; *Quebec only (n=329)/**Ontario only (n=561)


Outlook on the Economy & the Global Economic Crisis


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

"I think there is a good chance I could lose my job over the next couple of years.""I feel I have lost all control over my economic future."

Tracking Economic & Employment Insecurity

BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Canadians; most recent data point is from Apr. 8-13 n=1587

% agree

29

16


18

55

27

0 20 40 60 80 100

Impact of economic crisis on retirement plans

2

16

40

43

0 20 40 60 80 100

Yes

No

DK/NR

Q. Have your retirement plans changed as aresult of the current economic crisis?

Q. Which of the following best explains how your retirement plans have changed? Have you...

…pushed back date of retirement

Other

DK/NR

BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Canadians; Apr. 8-13 n=1587/*have changed plans (n=502)

…drastically cut back expenditures


Soundness of economic plans

16

41

18

25

4

44

21

31

020406080100

Sound (5-7)

Somewhat sound (4)

Not very sound (1-3)

DK/NR19

15

28

39

5

18

23

54

0 20 40 60 80 100

Q. From what you have heard, how sound would you say … plans are to combat the current recession?

…the Conservative government’s… …Barack Obama’s…

BASE: Canadians; most recent data point Apr. 8-13 n=1587

Apr. 09

Jan. 09


48

27

23

Greed and incompetence at root of economic crisis

Consumers spending beyond their means on houses and other things they could not afford


Q. From your own point of view, which of the following factors contributed most to producing the current global economic crisis?

Inadequate financial oversight by governments

The greed and incompetence of the world of business


52 35

7

Taxed at a rate of 90% for any income over $1 million

Set by the boards of corporations as they are now

Submitted to shareholders for their approval


Executive compensation seen as in need of reform

Q. There is a lot of talk about how high executive compensation has risen in recent years. From your perspective, do you think that executive pay and bonuses should be…


1

3

2

1

2

10

1

67

63

51

46

38

23

30

20

21

27

29

35

29

31

12

12

20

24

25

38

38

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Executives of lg. businesses

Stock brokers

Investment advisors

Bankers

Economists

NGOs

Public servants

DK/NR Low (1-3) Moderate (4) High (5-7)

Trust in occupations

Q. How much trust you have in the following occupational groups?



Attitudes towards diversity


5

31

64

0 20 40 60 80 100

Role for diversity in building a more tolerant society

Having a multicultural blend of different cultures provides a richer, more tolerant society

Too much diversity can weaken a society and it would be better if we all subscribed

to the same values and culture

DK/NR


Q. Which of the following two statements comes closest to your own point of view?


The Mission in Afghanistan


0

20

40

60

80

100

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Oppose Neither Support

Support for military participation in Afghanistan

BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Canadians; most recent data point is from Apr. 8-13 n=1587

Q. Do you support or oppose Canadian military participation in Afghanistan?

39

11

48

SupportNeitherOppose


For more information:

FRANK GRAVES EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATESt: 613.235.7215e: [email protected]

PAUL ADAMSEKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATESt: 613.235.7215e: [email protected]

News & Politics

Ekos Cbc Survey Results Apr 162