Upload
trinhkien
View
225
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Economics 302 (Sec. 001)Intermediate Macroeconomic
Theory and PolicyTheory and Policy(Spring 2011)
Instructor: Prof. Menzie ChinnUW Madison
Administrative IssuesAdministrative Issues
• Course website: http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~mchinn/web302_s11.html
• OH: MW 4-5, 7418 Soc Sci• Textbook: Blanchard, MacroeconomicsTextbook: Blanchard, Macroeconomics• Additional Readings: from WWW,
Econbrowser CBOEconbrowser, CBO• NYT, FT, WSJ, Economist
Administrative Issues• Grading: 20% PS 50% 2×MTs 30% Final• Grading: 20% PS, 50% 2×MTs, 30% Final• Dates:
- Class cancelled on 9/24- MT1 on Wed, 2/23,- MT2 on Wed, 4/4
Final on Mon 5/9 7:45AM- Final on Mon. 5/9, 7:45AM• Make-ups: None. Points are re-allocated if you
h l iti t N l t i thave a legitimate excuse. No late assignments accepted (must be handed in during lecture)
Context: GDP Growth
06
.08
.10
02
.04
.06
- 02
.00
.02
-.06
-.04
.02
-.082000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
(GDP05/GDP05(-1)) 4̂-1(GDP05WSJ_JAN11/GDP05WSJ_JAN11(-1)) 4̂-1
GDP (log levels)9 60
9.55
9.60
Potential GDP
In logs ofbillion Ch.05$
9
9.50(CBO, Aug. 2010)
WSJJan '11
9.40
9.45 Jan 11survey
9.35GDP(bn Ch.05$)
9.25
9.30
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: BEA GDP 2010Q3 3rd release, CBO (Aug 2010), WSJ (Jan. 2011)
Employment140,000
138,000Nonfarm
136,000
Nonfarmpayrollemployment
134,000
132,000
130,000
Ex. temporary
128,00000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Census workers
Source: BLS, Employment Situation, Dec. 2010 release
Unemployment Rate11
10
8
9Unemploymentrate
WSJ
6
7
WSJJan '11
5
6
3
4
31980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: BLS, Employment Situation, Dec. 2010 release
Long Term UE, g ,Under-
employmentemployment
Source: Calculated Risk, 1/7/2011
Inflation.06
"Headline"
.04
.05Headline
CPI inflation(year-on-year)
WSJ
.02
.03
WSJ"headline"Jan '11
.00
.01 CoreCPI inflation(year-on-year)
-.02
-.01
-.0300 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: BLS, CPI Dec.(CPIAUCSL/CPIAUCSL(-12))-1(CPILFESL/CPILFESL(-12))-1CPIINFL_WSJJAN11/100
Source: BLS, CPI Dec. release, WSJ (Jan. ’11)
Monetary Policy10
8
Ten year constantmaturity Treasurys
6
4
6Fed Funds
2
4
3 monthT-bills
0
2
090 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Source: St. Louis Fed FRED II database
Fed interventions
http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/data/credit_easing/index.cfm
Consumption
9.2
9.3
11.0
11.1
9.0
9.1
10.8
10.9
8.8
8.9
10.6
10.7Log consumption(bn Ch.2005$)[left scale]
Log householdnet worth(bn Ch.2005$)[right scale]
8.6
8.7
10.4
10.5[ ]
8.4
8.5
10.2
10.3
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Source: BEA, 2010Q3 3rd release; Fed Flow of Funds (12/13/2010 release)
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
House Prices
Source: Calculated Risk, 12/28/2010
Current Account, Net Debt02 20
00
.01
.02
10
.15
.20
02
-.01
.00
00
.05
.10
Current Account
04
-.03
-.02
10
-.05
.00Cu e t ccou tto GDP ratio[left axis]
- 06
-.05
-.04
- 20
-.15
-.10Net InternationalInvestment Positionto GDP ratio[right scale]
-.07
-.06
-.25
-.20
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
[right scale]
CA/GDP NIIPEOP/(GDP*1000)
Net Exports and the Dollar
.3
.4
.02
.04
X/GDP(ex. oil)
.2 .00
( )[right scale]
.1 -.02
-.1
.0
-.06
-.04
Log realvalue of
X/GDP[right
-.2 -.081975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
value ofUSD
[rightscale]
Source: Federal Reserve Board, and BEA, 2010Q2 GDP 2nd release
1 0Long Term Log GDP
0.5
1.0
\
2001 recession ____
0.0 \1982
\1990-91recession
-1.0
-0.5
WWII
recession
-1.5 "Roaring'20's"
-2.5
-2.0 WWI \ \
1920-21 recession
__Great Depression
2.51910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Source: Historical Statistics, and BEA, 2010Q2 GDP 2nd release, rebased to 1980 = 0
2-1 Aggregate Output
•National income and product accounts are an accounting system used to measure aggregate economic activity.
GDP: Production and Income
The measure of aggregate output in the national income accounts is gross domesticnational income accounts is gross domestic product, or GDP.
17 of 31
GDP P d ti d I
2-1 Aggregate Output
•There are three ways of defining GDP:
GDP: Production and Income
y g
1. GDP is the value of the final goods and services produced in the economy during a given periodthe economy during a given period.
A final good is a good that is destined for final consumption.
An intermediate good is a good used in theAn intermediate good is a good used in the production of another good.
18 of 31
GDP P d ti d I
2-1 Aggregate Output
There are three ways of defining GDP:
GDP: Production and Income
There are three ways of defining GDP:
2. GDP is the sum of value added in the economy during a given period.
V l dd d l th l f fi ’Value added equals the value of a firm’s production minus the value of the intermediate goods it uses in production.g p
19 of 31
GDP P d ti d I
2-1 Aggregate Output
There are three ways of defining GDP:
GDP: Production and Income
There are three ways of defining GDP:
3. GDP is the sum of incomes in the economy during a given period.
Table 2-1 The Composition of GDP by Type of Income, 1960 and 2006
1960 2006Labor income 66% 64%Capital income 26% 29%Indirect taxes 8% 7%
20 of 31
2-1 Aggregate Output
N i l d R l GDP
•Nominal GDP is the sum of the quantities of final goods
Nominal and Real GDP
Nominal GDP is the sum of the quantities of final goods produced multiplied by their current price.
•Nominal GDP increases over time because:•Nominal GDP increases over time because:
– The production of most goods increases over time.
– The prices of most goods also increase over time.
•Real GDP is constructed as the sum of the quantities of final goods multiplied by constant (rather than current) prices.
21 of 31
2-1 Aggregate Output
N i l d R l GDP
YQuantity
f CPrice f
Nominal Real GDP
Nominal and Real GDP
Year of Cars of cars GDP (in 2000 dollars)1999 10 $20,000 $200,000 $240,0002000 12 $24,000 $288,000 $288,000
To construct real GDP multiply the number of cars in each
2001 13 $26,000 $338,000 $312,000
To construct real GDP, multiply the number of cars in each year by a common price. Suppose we use the price of the car in 2000 as the common price. This approach gives us, in effect real GDP in chained (2000) dollarseffect, real GDP in chained (2000) dollars.
22 of 31
2-1 Aggregate Output
N i l d R l GDPNominal and Real GDP
Fi 2 1
From 1960 to 2006 nominal
Nominal and Real U.S. GDP, Since 1960
Figure 2 - 1
From 1960 to 2006, nominal GDP increased by a factor of 25. Real GDP increased by a factor of about 4.5.
23 of 31
2-1 Aggregate Output
N i l d R l GDP
The terms nominal GDP and real GDP each have many synonyms:
Nominal and Real GDP
– Nominal GDP is also called dollar GDP or GDP in current dollars.
– Real GDP is also called GDP in terms of goods, GDP in constant dollars, GDP adjusted for inflation, or GDP in 2000 dollars.
– GDP will refer to real GDP, and Yt will denote real GDP in year t.
– Nominal GDP and variables measured in current dollars will be denoted by a dollar sign in front of them—for example, $Yt. for nominal GDP in year t.
24 of 31
2-1 Aggregate Output
GDP L l V G th R t
•Real GDP per capita is the ratio of real GDP to the l i f h
GDP: Level Versus Growth Rate
population of the country.
•GDP growth equals: )( −YY
1
1)(
−
−
t
tt
YYY
Periods of positive GDP growth are called expansions.expansions.
Periods of negative GDP growth are called
25 of 31
g grecessions.
2-1 Aggregate Output
GDP L l V G th R tGDP: Level Versus Growth Rate
Fi 2 2
Since 1960 the U S economy
Growth Rate of U.S. GDP Since 1960
Figure 2 - 2
Since 1960, the U.S. economy has gone through a series of expansions, interrupted by short recessions.
26 of 31
2-2 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Th U l t R t
•Because it is a measure of aggregate activity, GDP is
The Unemployment Rate
obviously the most important macroeconomic variable. But two other variables tell us about other important aspects of how an economic is performing:
– Unemployment
– Inflation
27 of 31
2-2 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Th U l t R t
•Employment is the number of people who have a job.
The Unemployment Rate
•Unemployment is the number of people who do not have a job but are looking for one.
•The labor force is the sum of employment and unemployment:p y
•L = N + U•Labor force = Employment + Unemployment•Labor force = Employment + Unemployment
28 of 31
2-2 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Th U l t R t
•The unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of people h l d h b f l i h l b
The Unemployment Rate
who are unemployed to the number of people in the labor force:
UL
u =
Unemployment rate =
In the United States, estimates based on the
Unemployment rate Unemployment/Labor force
7.0 4 6%u = =
In the United States, estimates based on the CPS show that:
29 of 31
2006 4.6%144.4 7.0
u = =+
2-2 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Th U l t R t
•The Current Population Survey (CPS) is used to compute the
The Unemployment Rate
unemployment rate.
•Only those looking for work are counted as unemployed. Those y g p ynot working and not looking for work are not in the labor force.
•People without jobs who give up looking for work are known asPeople without jobs who give up looking for work are known as discouraged workers.
•Participation rate labor forceParticipation rate=
labor forcepopulation of working age
30 of 31
2-2 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Th U l t R tThe Unemployment Rate
Figure 2 - 3
Since 1960, the U.S. unemployment rate has
U.S. Unemployment Rate Since 1960
unemployment rate has fluctuated between 3% and 10%, going down during expansions and going up during recessionsduring recessions.
31 of 31
2-2 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Th U l t R tThe Unemployment RateWhy Do Economists Care About Unemployment?
•Economists care about unemployment for two reasons:
– Because of its direct effects on the welfare of the unemployed.
– Because it provides a signal that the economy may not beBecause it provides a signal that the economy may not be using some of its resources efficiently.
32 of 31
2-2 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Th I fl ti R t
Inflation is a sustained rise in the general level
The Inflation Rate
of prices—the price level.
The inflation rate is the rate at which the priceThe inflation rate is the rate at which the price level increases.
Symmetrically deflation is a sustained declineSymmetrically, deflation is a sustained decline in the price level. It corresponds to a negative inflation rate.
33 of 31
2-2 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Th I fl ti R tThe Inflation RateThe GDP Deflator
The GDP deflator in year t, Pt, is defined as the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP in year t:
$t
Nominal GDPReal GDP
t
t
YP
Y= =
The GDP deflator is what is called an
tReal GDP
tY
The GDP deflator is what is called an index number—set equal to 100 in the base year.
34 of 31
2-2 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Th I fl ti R tThe Inflation RateThe GDP Deflator
The rate of change in the GDP deflator equals the rate of inflation:
( )P PP
t t
t
− −
−
1
1
Nominal GDP is equal to the GDP deflator multiplied by real GDP:
$Y PYt t t=
deflator multiplied by real GDP:
35 of 31
2-2 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Th I fl ti R tThe Inflation RateThe Consumer Price Index
•The GDP deflator measures the average price of output, while the consumer price index, or CPI, measures the average price of consumption, or equivalently, the costaverage price of consumption, or equivalently, the cost of living.
•The CPI gives the cost in dollars of a specific list of g pgoods and services over time, which attempts to represent the consumption basket of a typical urban consumer.
36 of 31
2-2 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Th I fl ti R tThe Inflation RateThe Consumer Price Index
The set of goods produced in the economy is not the same as the set of goods purchased by
f tconsumers, for two reasons:
Some of the goods are sold to firms, to theSome of the goods are sold to firms, to the government, or to foreigners.
S f th d t d dSome of the goods are not produced domestically but are imported from abroad.
37 of 31
2-2 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Th I fl ti R tThe Inflation RateThe Consumer Price Index
U.S. Inflation Rate, Using the CPI and the GDP Deflator
Figure 2 - 4
The inflation rates, computed using either the CPI or the GDP deflator are largely
Deflator Since 1960
GDP deflator, are largely similar.
38 of 31
2-2 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Th I fl ti R tThe Inflation RateThe Consumer Price Index
Figure 2-4 yields two conclusions:
The CPI and the GDP deflator move together most of the time. In most years, the two inflation rates differ by less than 1%.inflation rates differ by less than 1%.
There are clear exceptions, however. In 1979 d 1980 th i i th CPI1979 and 1980, the increase in the CPI was significantly larger than the increase in the GDP deflator.
39 of 31
2-2 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Th I fl ti R tWhy Do Economists Care About Inflation?
The Inflation Rate
Economists care about inflation for two reasons:
During periods of inflation, not all prices and wages rise proportionately, inflation affects income distrib tionaffects income distribution.
Inflation leads to other distortions.
40 of 31
2-3 The Short Run, the Medium Run, and the Long Run
The level of aggregate output in an economy is determined by:determined by:
demand in the short run, say, a few years,
the level of technology, the capital stock, and the labor force in the medium run, say, a decade or so,
factors such as education researchfactors such as education, research, saving, and the quality of government in the long run, say, a half century or more.
41 of 31
2-4 A Tour of the Book
The Organization of the
Figure 2 - 5
The Organization of the Book
42 of 31
2-4 A Tour of the Book
The book is organized into three parts:The book is organized into three parts:
A core which has three parts – the short run, th di d th lthe medium run, and the long run.
Three extensions which explore the role of expectations, closed economies, and expansion and recessions.
A deeper look at the role of microeconomic policy.
43 of 31
Key Termsnational income and product accountsaggregate outputgross domestic product, (GDP)gross national product, (GNP)
unemploymentlabor forceunemployment rateCurrent Population Survey (CPS)g p , ( )
intermediate goodfinal goodvalue addednominal GDP
p y ( )not in the labor forcediscouraged workersparticipation rateunderground economynominal GDP
real GDPreal GDP in chained (2000) dollarsdollar GDP, GDP in current dollarsGDP in terms of goods GDP in constant
underground economyinflationprice levelinflation ratedeflationGDP in terms of goods, GDP in constant
dollars, GDP adjusted for inflation, GDP in 2000 dollars real GDP per capitaGDP growth
deflationGDP deflatorindex numbercost of livingconsumer price index (CPI)GDP growth
expansionsrecessionshedonic pricing
l
consumer price index (CPI)short runmedium runlong run
44 of 31
employment base year