Cuba Embargo Aff

8/12/2019 Cuba Embargo Aff

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1AC

Plan Text: The USFG should normalize trade relations with Cuba


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1 InfluenceUS soft power is at a low point and in decline but smart policy can reverse trendsQuinn 13 Adam Quinn - senior lecturer in international politics at the University of Birmingham in Birmingham, Britain. He is leader of aseminar series on The Future of American power from the Economic and Social Research Council, from which Mr. Quinn also receivesfunding,(NSA revelations threaten Obama's soft power and America's global influence,csmonitor.com,http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2013/1029/NSA -revelations-threaten-Obama-s-soft-power-and-America-s-global-influence,accessed:10/30/13)

The reason present friction between the US and its allies carries greater weight, however, is that it arises in thecontext of a global shift in power away from the US and its established allies and toward new powers. The prospect ofAmerican decline in terms of relative international power is the focus of a great deal of debate over both substance and semantics. But thecentral fact is that even the part of the USs own intelligence apparatus charged with long -term foresight regards it as established that,

within 20 years , the world will have transitioned from the unipolar American dominance of the first post-cold war decades to a world in which multiple centers of power must coexist. The center of economic gravity has alreadyshifted markedly toward Asia during the last decade. This certainly does not mean any single new power is about to rise to replace theUS as a hegemonic force. Nor does it mean the US will be going anywhere: The scale of its existing advantages across a range of fronts military, economic, institutional is sufficiently great that it is assured a prominent place at the table of whatever order may come. What it

does mean is that Americans must presently be engaged in thinking carefully about how best to leverage their advantages to retain the maximum possible influence into the future . If they cannot continue to be first among equals in m anaging the world order, they will wish at least to ensure that order is one that runs in line withtheir own established preferences . Soft power Many of those who are optimistic about the ability of theUS to pull off this project of declining powe r without declining influence place emphasis on two things: the extent to which theUS has soft power due to widespread admiration for its political and cultural values, and the extent to which it has locked in influencethrough the extent of its existing networks of friends and allies. Even if these advantages cannot arrest Americas declineon harder metrics , if played properly, they can mitigate its consequences and secure an acceptable future. Shoring upsupport from like-minded countries such as those of Europe ought to be the low-hanging fruit of such an effort. So the current problems do

harm on both fronts. It will be difficult to maintain the allure of soft power if global opinion settles on the view thatAmerican political discord has rendered its democracy dysfunctional at home, or that its surveillance practices have given rein to the mores o f a

police state. And it will be harder to preserve American status through the force of its alliances if its politicians' economic irresponsibility (for example, publicly contemplating a default on American national debt) or scandalsover surveillance or drone strikes alienate their public or cause their leaders to question the extent to which they really are on thesame side as the US. Obamas day -to-day foreign policy struggles should not be simplistically taken as signs of collapsing American influence.

But if the long-term plan is to carefully manage relative decline so as to preserve maximum influence,episodes such as those his country has faced since August do nothing to boost the prospects ofsuccess.

Soft powers key to conflict prevention global integration checks conflict escalationChatterjee 13 Siddharth Chatterjee, Chief Diplomat and Head of Strategic Partnerships at the IFRC

HQ, The Spoils of War, Huffington Post, 7/12/2013, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/siddharth -chatterjee/the-spoils-of-war_b_3586601.htmlThe moral imperative during World War II has been replaced by the quest to gain control of resourcesand influence. Increasingly, countries declaring war have done so for political reasons . In the absence of moralreasoning, soldiers and society find it even more difficult to embrace the idea of putting young lives at risk in war. And then there is the massivefinancial cost. A 2013 Harvard study notes that the combined cost of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars could end up costing the U.S . between 4and 6 trillion dollars including the medical care of veterans, leading to an enormous negative impact on the global economy. No doubt war ishell -- but for reasons far beyond what we traditionally thought. War not only tears apart the people that partake in it, emotionally as well asphysically, but also their families, communities, societies and even their countries. It is extremely expensive, not only in money, but also in


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human capital and potential. These costs are simply too great to bear. Now more than ever, the time is ripe to explore theparadigm- shifting potential of 'soft power', brilliantly articulated by Professor Joseph Nye, one of the world's leading thinkersand intellectuals. Nye describes soft power as "the ability to get what you want through attraction ratherthan through coercion ." He sees strong relations with allies, economic assistance programs, and vitalcultural exchanges as examples of soft power. By using this soft power , it may be possible to stop internal

conflicts in fragile states before they even begin . Soft power will allow countries to influence the worldand achieve their goals through non-violent means. Even with overwhelming might, we are seeing wars aren't won

any longer . Mahatma Gandhi said " victory attained by violence is tantamount to a defeat , for it is momentary." If

the world cannot find a way out of war, then we may well be defeated as a civilization.

Your generic defense doesnt work we cite specific scenarios which are on the brinkBrzezinski 12 ~Zbignbiew Brzezinski, national security advisor under U.S. President Jimmy Carter, January/February 2012, "8 GeopoliticallyEndangered Species", Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/03/8_geopolitically_endangered_species?page=full-http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/03/8_geopolitically_endangered_species?page=full,accessed:10/19/13,JW)

With the decline of America's global preeminence , weaker countries will be more susceptible to the assertiveinfluence of major regional powers. India and China are rising , Russia is increasingly imperially minded, and the Middle East isgrowing ever more unstable. The potential for regional conflict in the absence of an internationally active Americais real . Get ready for a global reality characterized by the survival of the strongest. 1. GEORGIA American decline wouldleave this tiny Caucasian state vulnerable to Russia n political intimidation and military aggression. The United States has providedGeorgia with $3 billion in aid since 1991 -- $1 billion of that since its 2008 war with Russia. America's decline would put new limitations onU.S. capabilities , and could by itself stir Russia n desires to reclaim its old sphere of influence. What's more, once-and-future Russian President Vladimir Putin harbors an intense personal hatred toward Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. At stake: Russian

domination of the southern energy corridor to Europe, possibly leading to more pressure on Europe to accommodateMoscow's political agenda ; a domino effect on Azerbaijan. 2. TAIWAN Since 1972, the United States has formally accepted themainland's "one China" formula while maintaining that neither side shall alter the status quo by force. Beijing , however, reserves theright to use force , which allows Washington to justify its continued arms sales to Taiwan. In recent years, Taiwan and China have beenimproving their relationship. America's decline , however, would increase Taiwan's vulnerability , leaving decision-makers in Taipei more susceptible to direct Chinese pressure and the sheer attraction of an economically successful China.That , at the least, could speed up the timetable for cross-strait reunification, but on unequal terms favoring the mainland. At stake: Risk ofa serious collision with China . 3. SOUTH KOREA The United States has been the guarantor of South Korea's security since itwas attacked in 1950 by North Korea, with Soviet and Chinese collusion. Seoul's remarkable economic takeoff and democratic political system

testify to the success of U.S. engagement. Over the years, however, North Korea has staged a number of provocations against South Korea, ranging from assassinations of its cabinet members to the 2010 sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan. So

America's decline would confront South Korea with painful choices: either accept Chinese regionaldominance and further reliance on China to rein in the nuclear-armed North, or seek a much stronger , though historicallyunpopular, relationship with Japan out of shared democratic values and fear of aggression from Pyongyang and Beijing. At stake:Military and economic security on the Korean Peninsula; a general crisis of confidence in Japan and SouthKorea regarding the reliability of existing American commitments. 4. BELARUS Twenty years after the fall of the Soviet Union, Europe'slast dictatorship remains politically and economically dependent on Russia. One-third of its exports go to Russia, on which it is almost entirelyreliant for its energy needs. At the same time, President Aleksandr Lukashenko's 17-year dictatorship has stood in the way of any meaningful

relations with the West. Consequently, a marked American decline would give Russia a virtually risk-freeopportunity to reabsorb Belarus. At stake: The security of neighboring Baltic states, especially Latvia .5. UKRAINE Kiev's relationship with Moscow has been as prone to tension as its relationship with the West has been prone to indecision.

In 2005, 2007, and 2009, Russia either threatened to or did s top oil and natural gas from flowing to Ukraine. More recently, President ViktorYanukovych was pressured to extend Russia's lease of a naval base at the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Sevastopol for another 25 years inexchange for preferential pricing of Russian energy deliveries to Ukraine. The Kremlin continues to p ress Ukraine to join a "common economicspace" with Russia, while gradually stripping Ukraine of direct control over its major industrial assets through mergers and takeovers by Russian


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firms. With America in decline, Europe would be less willing and able to reach out and incorporateUkraine into an expanding Western community, leaving Ukraine more vulnerable to Russian designs. At stake: The renewal of Russian imperial ambitions . 6. AFGHANISTAN Devastated by nine years of brutal warfarewaged by the Soviet Union, ignored by the West for a decade after the Soviet withdrawal, mismanaged by the medieval Taliban, and let downby 10 years of halfhearted U.S. military operations and sporadic economic assistance, Afghanistan is in shambles. With 40 percent

unemployment and ranking 215th globally in per capita GDP, it has little economic output beyond its illegal narcotics trade. A rapid U.S.troop disengagement brought on by war fatigue or the early effects of American decline would most likely resultin internal disintegration and an external power play among nearby states for influence inAfghanistan . In the absence of an effective, stable government in Kabul, the country would be dominated by rival warlords. Pakistanand India would more assertively compete for influence in Afghanistan -- with Iran also probablyinvolved . At stake: The re-emergence of the Taliban; a proxy war between India and Pakistan; ahaven for international terrorism . 7. PAKISTAN Although Islamabad is armed with 21st-century nuclear weapons and heldtogether by a professional late 20th-century army, the majority of Pakistan is still pre-modern, rural, and largely defined by regional and tribalidentities. Conflict with India defines Pakistan's sense of national identity, while the forcible division of Kashmir sustains a shared and profound

antipathy. Pakistan's political instability is its greatest vulnerability, and a decline in U.S. power would reduce America'sability to aid Pakistan's consolidation and development . Pakistan could then transform into a state runby the military , a radical Islamic state, a state that combined both military and Islamic rule, or a "state" with no centralized government at

all. At stake: Nuclear warlordism; a militant Islamic, anti-Western, nuclear-armed government similar toIran's; regional instability in Central Asia, with violence potentially spreading to China, India, and Russia. 8. ISRAEL and the GREATER

MIDDLE EAST America's decline would set in motion tectonic shifts undermining the political stability of the entire Middle East. Allstates in the region remain vulnerable to varying degrees of internal populist pressures, social unrest, and religious fundamentalism, as seen bythe events of early 2011. If America's decline were to occur with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict still unresolved, the failure to implement amutually acceptable two-state solution would further inflame the region's political atmosphere. Regional hostility to Israel would then intensify.

Perceived American weakness would at some point tempt the more powerful states in the region , notably Iran orIsrael, to preempt anticipated dangers . And jockeying for tactical advantage could precipitate eruptions by Hamas or Hezbollah,which could then escalate into wider and bloodier military encounters . Weak entities such as Lebanon and Palestinewould pay an especially high price in civilian deaths. Even worse, such conflicts could rise to truly horrific levels through strikes and

counterstrikes between Iran and Israel. At stake: Direct Israeli or U.S. confrontation with Iran; a rising tide of Islamicradicalism and extremism; a worldwide energy crisis; vulnerability of America's Persian Gulf allies .

Russian resurgence causes global instability and WMD useAriel Cohen, Ph.D, Senior Policy Analyst, Heritage Foundation Reports, 1-25 -97Much is at stake in Eurasia for the U.S. and its allies. Attempts to restore its empire will doomRussia's transition to a democracy and free-market economy. The ongoing war in Chechnya alone hascost Russia $ 6 billion to date (equal to Russia's IMF and World Bank loans for 1995). Moreover, it has extracted atremendous price from Russian society. The wars which would be required to restore the Russian empirewould prove much more costly not just for Russia and the region, but for peace, world stability, andsecurity. As the former Soviet arsenals are spread throughout the NIS, these conflicts may escalate toinclude the use of weapons of mass destruction . Scenarios including unauthorized missile launchesare especially threatening . Moreover, if successful, a reconstituted Russian empire would become amajor destabilizing influence both in Eurasia and throughout the world . It would endanger not onlyRussia's neighbors, but also the U.S. and its allies in Europe and the Middle East . And, of course, a neo-imperialist Russia could imperil the oil reserves of the Persian Gulf. n15 Vladimir Zhirinovsky, mouthpiece for themost irredentist elements in the Russian security and military services, constantly articulates this threat.Domination of the Caucasus would bring Russia closer to the Balkans, the Mediterranean Sea,and the Middle East. Russian imperialists, such as radical nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky, have resurrected theold dream of obtaining a warm port on the Indian Ocean. If Russia succeeds in establishing its domination in thesouth , the threat to Ukraine, Turkey, Iran, and Afganistan will increase. The independence of pro-Western Georgia and Azerbaijan already has been undermined by pressures from the Russian armed forces and


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covert actions by the intelligence and security services, in addition to which Russian hegemony would makeWestern political and economic efforts to stave off Islamic militancy more difficult. Eurasian oil resources are

pivotal to economic development in the early 21st century. The supply of Middle Eastern oil would become precarious if Saudi Arabia became unstable, or if Iran or Iraq provoked another military conflict in the area.Eurasian oil is also key to the economic development of the southern NIS. Only with oil revenues can thesecountries sever their dependence on Moscow and develop modem market economies and free societies. Moreover, ifthese vast oil reserves were tapped and developed, tens of thousands of U.S. and Western jobs would be created. TheU.S. should ensure free access to these reserves for the benefit of both Western and local economies

ExtinctionHelfand and Pastore 9 [Ira Helfand, M.D., and John O. Pastore, M.D., are past presidents of Physicians forSocial Responsibility.March 31, 2009, U.S. -Russia nuclear war still a threat,http://www.projo.com/opinion/contributors/content/CT_pastoreline_03-31-09_EODSCAO_v15.bbdf23.html]

President Obama and Russian President Dimitri Medvedev are scheduled to Wednesday in London during the G-20summit. They must not let the current economic crisis keep them from focusing on one of the greatest threatsconfronting humanity: the danger of nuclear war. Since the end of the Cold War, many have acted asthough the danger of nuclear war has ended. It has not. There remain in the world more than 20,000 nuclearweapons. Alarmingly, more than 2,000 of these weapons in the U.S. and Russian arsenals remain onready-alert status, commonly known as hair-trigger alert. They can be fired within five minutes andreach targets in the other country 30 minutes later . Just one of these weapons can destroy a city. A warinvolving a substantial number would cause devastation on a scale unprecedented in humanhistory . A study conducted by Physicians for Social Responsibility in 2002 showed that if only 500 of the Russianweapons on high alert exploded over our cities, 100 million Americans would die in the first 30 minutes. An attack of this magnitude also would destroy the entire economic , communications and transportationinfrastructure on which we all depend . Those who survived the initial attack would inhabit anightmare landscape with huge swaths of the country blanketed with radioactive fallout and epidemicdiseases rampant . They would have no food, no fuel, no electricity, no medicine, and certainly no organizedhealth care. In the following months it is likely the vast majority of the U.S. population would die. Recent studies

by the eminent climatologists Toon and Robock have shown that such a war would have a huge and immediateimpact on climate world wide. If all of the warheads in the U.S. and Russian strategic arsenals weredrawn into the conflict, the firestorms they caused would loft 180 million tons of soot and debris intothe upper atmosphere blotting out the sun . Temperatures across the globe would fall an averageof 18 degrees Fahrenheit to levels not seen on earth since the depth of the last ice age, 18,000 years ago.Agriculture would stop, eco-systems would collapse, and many species, including perhaps ourown, would become extinct. It is common to discuss nuclear war as a low-probabillity event. But is this true?We know of five occcasions during the last 30 years when either the U.S. or Russia believed itwas under attack and prepared a counter-attack. The most recent of these near misses occurred after theend of the Cold War on Jan. 25, 1995, when the Russians mistook a U.S. weather rocket launched from Norway fora possible attack. Jan. 25, 1995, was an ordinary day with no major crisis involving the U.S. and Russia. But,unknown to almost every inhabitant on the planet, a misunderstanding led to the potential for a nuclear war. Theready alert status of nuclear weapons that existed in 1995 remains in place today.

Plan solves - recovers US influence and soft power.Perez, JD from Yale Law School, 2010(David, Americas Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the US StateDepartment, Harvard Latino Law Review , Lexis Nexis)


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In order to effectively employ soft power in Latin America, the U.S. must repair its image by going on adiplomatic offensive and reminding, not just Latin America's leaders, but also the Latin American people, of the important relationshipbetween the U.S. and Latin America. Many of the problems facing Latin America today cannot be addressed in theabsence of U.S. leadership and cooperation. Working with other nations to address these challenges isthe best way to shore up legitimacy, earn respect, and repair America's image . Although this proposal focusesheavily on Cuba, every country in Latin America is a potential friend. Washington will have to not only strengthen itsexisting relationships in the region, but also win over new allies, who look to us for "ideas and solutions,not lectures. " n5 When analyzing ecosystems, environmental scientists seek out "keystone species." These are organisms that, despitetheir small size, function as lynchpins for, or barometers of, the entire system's stability. Cuba, despite its size and isolation, is akeystone nation in Latin America, having disproportionately dominated Washington's policy toward theregion for decades. n6 As a result of its continuing tensions with Havana, America's reputation [*192]in the region has suffered, as has its ability to deal with other countries . n7 For fifty years, Latin Americangovernments that hoped to endear themselves to the U.S. had to pass the Cuba "litmus test." But nowthe tables have turned, and the Obama Administration, if it wants to repair America's image in theregion, will have to pass a Cuba litmus test of its own. n8 In short, America must once again be admired ifwe are going to expect other countries to follow our example. To that end, warming relations with Cubawould have a reverberating effect throughout Latin America, and would go a long way toward creating

goodwill.

Latin America is uniquely key to revitalized soft power location and politicalrelationshipsGrandin, Professor of History at New York University, 2010(Greg, Empires Senescence: US Policy in Latin America, New Labor Forum , 19:1, Winter, pp. 14-23)

It is easy to imagine an improved U.S. diplomacy toward Latin America, designed not to advance a setof altruistic ideals but merely to defend its interests broadly defined to mean stable politics andeconomies that are open to U.S. capital and commodities and to achieve what those in the liberal wing of theforeign policy establishment have long advocated: a maximization of U.S. soft power. Harvards Joseph S. Nye defines softpower as the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion, through an enhanced understanding and utilization of multilateral institutions, mutually beneficial policies,cultural exchanges, and commercial relations.1 There are no immediate threats to the U.S. in LatinAmerica. A majority of the regions political elite even most of its current governing leftists sharemany of the same values the United States claims to embody, even more so following the election ofthe first African-American president, who is wildly popular in Latin America . As a result, there is no otherplace in the world that offers U.S. president Barack Obama the opportunity to put into place the kindof intelligent foreign policy that he and his closest advisors, such as United Nations (U.N.) ambassador Susan Rice,believe is necessary to stop the hemorrhaging of U.S. prestige one that would both improveWashingtons ability to deploy its many competitive advantages, while removing key points of friction .


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Biotech

Cuban biotech is high now their sector is boomingNTI, World Relations Institute, 2013(2/13, NTI, Cuba: Biological, http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/cuba/biological/ , 6/27/13,MK)

Cuban scientists pursue many research interests as they attempt to address the technological needsand desires of those both within and outside of Cuba . In the past two decades, Cuba has successfullydeveloped a meningitis B vaccine, hepatitis B vaccine,[13] cattle tick "vaccine," and monoclonalantibodies for kidney transplants. Cuba has also developed products through CIGB including vaccinesfor pneumonia, diphtheria, anemia, and various other diseases .[14] Scientific institutions also haveconducted trials involving epidermal growth factor; cancer, AIDS, and hepatitis C vaccines; and pest-resistant sugar cane . These activities clearly demonstrate Cuba's versatility in biotechnology researchand production. [15] As of February 2009, CIGB is "currently working on 20 new projects that include thedevelopment of 40 products to treat several diseases." [16] As the Cuban biotechnology industry hasexpanded over the past decade, the nation has become a major source of both medicine and scientifictechnology to the developing world. Cuba currently has technology trade agreements with at least 14countries, with negotiations for trade underway with several other states. In the past decade, Iran,China, India, Algeria, Brazil, and Venezuela have become the main recipients of Cuban technology.[17]Cuba has also helped to initiate joint biotechnology enterprises within developing countries ,specifically Iran, China, and India, transferring technology from several different scientific institutions,including the CIGB and the Center for Molecular Immunology.[18] Cuba has attempted to repay parts ofits debt to Brazil, Columbia, and Venezuela by exporting pharmaceutical products to these countries.

The embargo makes cooperation and access to Cuba biotech impossible plan solvesCPAG, Center for National Policy, 2003(U.S. Cuba Relations, Time for a New Approach, pg. 12)

While internal failings and external pressures have kept Cubas economic system from reaching even afraction of its potential , the country does offer opportunities for U.S. exports and investment. SinceNovember 2001, Cuba has purchased $125 million in food from U.S. producers and recently signed contracts for an additional $95 million. Total food imports are currently estimated at $1 billion per year.As Cuba moves inevitably albeit slowly and fitfully toward a more market-based economy , the sizeof that market is likely to increase. Cuba also exports a number of products that are otherwise

unavailable in the U.S. market or whose substitutes are lower in quality. Cuba s biotechnologyindustry , for example , has developed effective meningitis and hepatitis vaccines to which Americanshave no legal access, while some of Cubas more traditional exports, which have always enjoyed areputation for superior quality, also cannot legally be imported . Current policy excludes U.S.businesses and individuals from virtually all export and investment opportunities and gives othercountries a head start in positioning themselves to take advantage of future ones. It prevents U.S. consumers from purchasing products from Cuba. And it does not provide an effective mechanism forthe resolution of intellectual property disputes or expropriated property claims.
http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/cuba/biological/http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/cuba/biological/http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/cuba/biological/http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/cuba/biological/


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A new super-disease is inevitable and intrinsic evolvability renders status quobiotechnology ineffective absent adaption this causes extinctionQuammen 13 DAVID QUAMMEN -author of Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic.,(Disease: The Next BigOne,nytimes.com,10/14/13,http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/15/opinion/disease -the-next-big-one.html?pagewanted=1&_r=0,accessed:1/28/13,JW)

BOZEMAN, Montana Grim prognostications of pestilence are as old as the Book of Revelation, but they have not gone out ofstyle or been rendered moot. Plague is a tribulation that science, technology and social engineering havent fixed. In the mid -1960s,some public health officials imagined that antibiotics and other mo dern therapies would enable us to close the book on infectious diseasesand so make it possible to focus on noncommunicable afflictions, like heart attack, diabetes and stroke. But that optimism was mistaken. By

one account, published in Nature in 2008, more than 300 instances of emerging infectious diseases occurred

between 1940 and 2004 . These included both the first appearance of scary new viral diseases (like SARS),with thepotential to cause global pandemics , and the re-emergence of older bacterial infections in new forms (like antibiotic-resistanttuberculosis and Staphylococcus aureus), which are less dramatic but also capable of causing illness and death on a large scale. The authors of

that study warned that global resources to counter disease emergence were poorly allocated, with most newoutbreaks occurring in tropical countries, and most scientific and surveillance efforts concentratedelsewhere . The most gruesome emergent diseases like those caused by Ebola virus in Africa or Nipah virus in Asia affect relativelyfew. The most devastating, AIDS, is caused by a devious, patient virus that wages slow-motion war against the human body, with mortalconsequences for millions. The most explosive SARS in 2002, or some recent strains of influenza had the potential, but for prompt actionand good luck, to claim many more victims than they did. AIDS, SARS, Ebola virus and many other new diseases have one thing in common:they are zoonotic. This means they came from nonhuman animals and made the leap to humans. The infectious agent might be a virus, or abacterium, or another sort of parasitic microbe, or a worm; the animal in which it resides inconspicuously, before spilling over into humans, isknown as its reservoir host. The reservoir host might be a bat (as with the SARS virus), or a rodent (the various hantaviruses), or a chimpanzee(H.I.V.-1). The reservoir host of Ebola virus is still unidentified a lingering mystery though bats again are suspected. And all of ourinfluenzas (even the so-called swine flus) originate in wild aquatic birds. We now know from molecular evidence (published by Beatrice H.Hahn, Michael Worobey and their collaborators) that the pandemic strain of H.I.V. went from a single chimpanzee into a single person(presumably by blood-to-blood contact when the chimp was slaughtered for food) around 1908 or earlier, in southeastern Cameroon. The virusthen must have passed slowly downriver, human to human, into the large population centers of the Congo basin before sp reading worldwide. Sixty percent of human infectious diseases, including the worst of the old ones and the scariest of the new, are zoonotic. Now disease expertswonder about the next big one: when will it come, what will it look like, from which reservoir host will it spill over, and how many people willit kill? Prediction is difficult. But we can be reasonably confident on a few points. The worst new diseases of the future, like those of the

recent past, will be zoonotic. Unfamiliar pathogens come to people from wildlife or livestock. The scariest of the new bugs will probably be viruses . Formidable, hardy, opportunistic and impervious to antibiotics, viruses replicate andevolve quickly . They exist in extraordinary diversity and seem ever ready to colonize new hosts . Expertsbelieve that the next global pandemic is likely to be caused by a virus with high intrinsic evolvability, meaning that it mutates especially quickly or recombines elements of its genetic material during theprocess of replication . It crackles and snaps with accidental variation . Darwin told us that variation is the rawmaterial of adaptive change; and adaptive change is what enables an organism to thrive in unfamiliarconditions including human hosts . In 1997, Dr. Donald S. Burke cautioned that the watch list of candidate viruses for the nextglobal pandemic the ones with high intrinsic evolvability should include the influenzas, the retroviruses (like H.I.V.-1 and H.I.V.-2), and thecoronavirus family (including SARS). His warning was validated when SARS emerged. Precise prediction may not be possible, but informedvigilance is. Intrepid disease ecologists are hiking into forests, climbing through caves, visiting remote communities to investigate smalloutbreaks, gathering evidence of novel infections, and sleuthing the mysteries of reservoir host and spillover. In labs, other scientists aredeveloping sophisticated new molecular tools for quickly identifying and characterizing new viruses. Private, governmental and internationalhealth institutions support scientific efforts and public-health planning to limit the scope of coming pandemics. There are issues of civilliberties and privacy, as well as issues of public health, to be faced as we prepare for the next big one. Consider the matter of travel. When Dr.

Burke issued his warning, you could get on an airplane just about anywhere carrying a pocketknife. You cant do that anymore. But you can stillboard a plane carrying a virus. This may change. Soon, it will be possible to identify quickly who is or is not infected with a dangerous new virus,and the carriers may be excluded from certain activities or worse. During smallpox outbreaks of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, someAmerican communities instituted compulsory vaccination and forcible confinement in pesthouses. A 21st-century version, based on similarfears about a new zoonotic virus, might involve cheek-swabbing and speedy molecular diagnostics at airport security checkpoints, followed by... who knows what sort of quarantine for those carrying the bug. Well need to balance between individual liberties and the health of the

human herd. Field research in areas of high biological diversity , careful scrutiny of the interactions of humans and wildlife,control of the killing and transport of wild animals for food, attention to the disease threats inherent in factory-scale livestock husbandry,

efficient sampling and diagnostic tools, global monitoring networks, better vaccines, better antiviraldrugs , and contingency plans for confining and controlling outbreaks these represent our best defenses against the


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next big one. We cant prevent another malign bug from entering the human population . But will it kill a few thousand people, or tensof millions? The answer may depend not just on the nature of the virus, and on the density and abundance of Homo sapiens on this planet,

but also on the particulars of how we respond. Viruses are adaptable and heedless. Humans are adaptable andsmart.

2013 CDC reports say we need to act fastFalco 13 Miriam Falco CNN,(CDC sets threat levels for drug -resistant'superbugs',cnn.com,9/16/13,http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/16/health/antibiotic -resistant-infections-cdc/,accessed:10/30/13,JW)

Health officials have been warning us about antibiotic overuse and drug-resistant "superbugs" for a long time. But today the C enters for

D isease C ontrol and Prevention is sounding the alarm in a new way . For the first time, the CDC is categorizing drug-resistant superbugs by threat level . That's because, in their conservative estimates, more than 2 million people getantibiotic-resistant infections each year, and at least 23,000 die because current drugs no longer stoptheir infections . Antibiotics are designed to kill bacteria that cause infection. However, in the process they can also kill so-called goodbacteria (the human body hosts about 100 trillion). The Missouri Department of Health explains it this way: "Every time a person takes

antibiotics, sensitive bacteria are killed, but resistant germs may be left to grow and multiply . Repeated and improper uses ofantibiotic s are primary causes of the increase in drug-resistant bacteria ." Some bad bacteria are naturally resistant tocertain types of antibiotics, according to Tufts University. Others can become resistant by spontaneous genetic mutation or by swapping geneswith other bugs. So the CDC is ranking the worst drug-resistant bacteria according to how many people get sick, the number of hospitalizationsand the number of deaths caused by each. They also took into account how many, if any, existing antibiotics still work on the bacteria. Insteadof red, orange or yellow -- the levels once used to describe terrorism threats -- the CDC is using "urgent," "serious" and "concerning." Knowingthe specific names of the deadly bacteria may not be essential for the average person, but CDC Director Dr. Thomas Frieden said Monday that

the CDC is warning the public about these health threats before they get out of control. "For the first time," said Frieden, " we have asnapshot of antimicrobial threats that have the most impact on human health ." According to the CDC, thefollowing bacteria are the most "Urgent Threats" : CRE bacteria -- a family of germs called carbapenem-resistantEnterobacteriaceae, which includes E. Coli. Some CRE bacteria are resistant to all existing antibiotics. The CDC reports more than 9,000infections are contracted in hospitals and other health care settings from these bacteria. As many as 50% of the patients who are infected with

CRE end up dying because there is nothing to help them fight the infections. Clostridium Difficile ( C-Diff for short) -- a bacteria that cancause life-threatening diarrhea. It kills up to 14,000 people and causes a quarter million hospitalizations each year. Most patients who get thispotentially deadly infection are on antibiotics for other infections. The problem is that while antibiotics kill bad bugs, they also kill good bacteria

in your gastrointestinal system that help fight off bad bacteria, C-Diff included. Neisseria gonorrhoeae -- the drug-resistant form ofthis bacteria causes gonorrhea, the second most commonly reported infection in the United States. Gonorrhea can cause a variety of illnessesin men and women, including infertility. The CDC estimates there are 820,000 infections each year. In nearly a third of the cases, treatment of

the sexually-transmitted disease, is hampered by g rowing antibiotic resistance. Frieden said if the current trends continue, "themedicine cabinet may be empty for patients who need them in the coming months and years ." Toavoid what Frieden calls a "post-antibiotic" era , where none of the existing drugs work anymore and newones haven't been approved , the CDC has created a four-step plan to stem the tide of antibiotic resistance.

Solvency is a time-frame issue Cuba collapse is coming now and will render thebiotech industry uselessSnchez 13 (Yoani Snchez is the Havana-based author of the blog Generation Y and the recently published book Havana Real. This article was translated by Mary Jo Porter.January 02, 2013, "Midnight in Havana: Will the Cuban government fall in 2013?", http://blog.syracuse. com/opinion/2013/01/midnight_in_havana_will_the_cu.html-

http://blog.syracuse.com/opinion/2013/01/midnight_in_havana_will_the_cu.html,accessed:10/21/13,JW)

It's increasingly obvious that the biological clock of the Cuban government -- a slow and agonizing journey of the hands that has lasted 54 years -- is closing in on midnight. Every minute that passes bringsobsolescence a little nearer. The existence of a political system should not be so closely linked to theyouth or decrepitude of its leaders, but in the case of our island, both ages have come to be the samething. Like a creature made in the image and likeness of a man -- who believes himself to be God --Cuba's current political model will not outlive its creators. Every decision made over the past five


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decades, every step taken in one direction or another, has been marked by the personalities anddecisions of a handful of human beings -- two of them in particular. One, Fidel Castro, 86, has beenconvalescing for six long years in a place few Cubans could find on a map. Although in the last five yearsFidel's brother Ral, 81, has installed some younger faces in the administrative and governmentalapparatus, the most important decisions remain concentrated in the hands of octogenarians. (Ral'ssuccessor, Jose Ramon Machado, is 82.) Like a voracious Saturn devouring his children, the principalleaders of the revolution have not allowed any favored sons to overshadow them. The last to be ousteddue to the paranoia of the Castro brothers were Vice President Carlos Lage, a figure who enjoyedpopular sympathy, and the foreign minister Felipe Perez Roque. Both might have made promisingsuccessors, but were accused by Fidel Castro himself as having been "addicted to the honey of power"and removed from their positions in 2009. Their own selfishness has left Cuban leaders without a planfor succession and time has run out to develop it, at least one not sincerely committed to continuingalong the path set by old men dressed in olive green. For Ral, the picture is worrisome, and he hasdeclared that "time is short" to ready the generation that will replace him and his comrades. In 2013, hewill be forced to accelerate this process, and his obvious desperation about the future is contributing tothe ideological weakening and the loss of whatever popular support the Castro regime still enjoys. Meanwhile, Castro's tentative economic reforms are also contributing to the loss of control over the

population. Together, the expansion of the private sector, the imposition of taxes, the distribution ofland leases to farmers, and the authorization of cooperatives in businesses other than agriculture, aregradually reducing the state's influence in the daily life of Cubans. Ral may see these as a desperationmove to jumpstart the Cuban economy, but one consequence will be the diminished ideologicalcommitment of the people to a government that provides fewer and fewer subsidies and benefits. Everystep the authorities take in the direction of greater flexibility is like pointing a loaded gun at their owntemples. A system based on keeping every tiny aspect of our national life under tight control cannotmaintain itself when some of these bonds are loosened. Reform is the death of the status quo andmaneuvers to guarantee financial survival by opening the system to private capital are a death sentencewritten in advance. The year 2013 will be a decisive one in Cuba's move from economic centralism tothe fragmentation of production, from absolute verticality to its dismantling. Those who cease to

receive their salaries from a state institution and come to support their families through self-employment will undoubtedly gain more political autonomy. Despite the best efforts of the politicalpolice, the opposition today is more energized than it has been since the so-called Black Spring of 2003 -- when 75 regime opponents were rounded up, most sentenced to long prison terms. Although 2012closed with the unfortunate loss of Oswaldo Paya, the leading figure of the Christian LiberationMovement, other faces are beginning to gain prominence. The number of activists is increasing -- andthey are bringing fresh, modern ideas to the struggle. An emerging community of alternative bloggersand performance artists is blending social criticism into its creations, and increasingly bold musicians areusing the lyrics of hip hop and reggaeton to narrate a reality far removed from the official discourse.Meanwhile, alternative information networks, including Twitter and other social networks via mobilephones, are helping to break the state's monopoly on opinion and to communicate the truth about whatis happening on our island to the rest of the world. The aging of the nomenklatura, the growingopposition, and the expansion of the private sector are not the only influences that will weaken thesystem in 2013. The worsening health of Venezuelan leader Hugo Chvez is a catalyst for collapse. In theabsence of his great patron -- and provider of subsidized petroleum -- in Caracas, Ral will have to speedup economic reforms even more quickly to spur growth, further weakening the Communist Party'sauthority. The emergence of their Venezuelan acolyte was a godsend to the Castros, who lost theiroriginal benefactor with the collapse of Soviet communism. But there doesn't appear to be anothercountry on the horizon willing to shoulder the burden of 42,000 square miles and its 11 millioninhabitants. U.S. President Barack Obama will also have a part to play. If the United States finally lifts --


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or softens -- its decades-long embargo, it may give the government a temporary financial respite. But onthe other hand, such a move would also take away the Castro regime's favorite political excuse for itseconomic failures. The country's sad state could no longer be blamed on our neighbor to the north. Itwould be a hard ideological blow. Given all these factors, it's difficult to see how The System can survivethe coming year, much less ensure its long-term viability. But it's worth noting that the regime in Havanahas long demonstrated its skill in surviving even the most unfavorable predictions. After all, the Cubaneconomy has been in a state of crisis for the last 20 years. One could even say that our leaders findtension soothing and perform better under emergency conditions than under prosperity. Material needscan also serve to paralyze people who must spend hours waiting for a bus or standing on line to buy acouple of pounds of chicken instead of organizing.

Plan prevents collapsePiccone 13 (Joseph, Brookings Institute Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Foreign Policy, Opening to Havana, 1/17/13,http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2013/01/opening-to-havana,accessed:10/21/13,JW)

Under Raul Castro, the Cuban government has continued to undertake a number of important reforms tomodernize its economy, lessen its dependence on Hugo Chavezs Venezuela, and allow citizens to make their own decisions about their economic

futures. The process of reform , however, is gradual, highly controlled and short on yielding game -changing results thatwould ignite the economy. Failure to tap new offshore oil and gas fields and agricultural damage from Hurricane Sandy dealt furthersetbacks. Independent civil society remains confined , repressed and harassed, and strict media and internet controls severely restrict theflow of information. The Castro generation is slowly handing power over to the next generation of party and military leaders who will determine the pace and scope

of the reform process. These trends suggest that an inflection point is approaching and that now is the time totry a new paradigm for de-icing the frozen conflict. The embargo the most complex and strictest embargo against anycountry in the world has handcuffed the U nited S tates and has prevented it from having any positive influence onthe islands developments . It will serve American interests better to learn how to work with the emergingCuban leaders while simultaneously ramping up direct U.S. outreach to the Cuba n people. I recommend that youradministration, led by a special envoy appointed by you and reporting to the secretary of state and the national security advisor, open a discreet dialogue withHavana on a wide range of issues, without preconditions. The aim of the d irect bilateral talks would be to resolve outstanding issues around migration, travel,counterterrorism and counternarcotics, the environment, and trade and investment that are important to protecting U.S. national interests. Outcomes of thesetalks could include provisions that normalize migration flows, strengthen border security, break down the walls of communication that hinder U.S. ability tounderstand how Cuba is changing, and help U.S. businesses create new jobs. In the context of such talks your special envoy would be authorized to signal youradministrations willingness to remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, pointing t o its assistance to the Colombian peace talks as fresh evidence forthe decision.


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4 Solvency

Resolving the Cuba conflict restores U.S. soft power credibilityDavid A. Perez , Spring, 10 , JD Yale Law School, currently serving as The Legal Advisor to the State Department, America'sCuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. State Department, Harvard Latino Law Review, 13 Harv.Latino L. Rev. 187, JT//JEDIThere is no doubt that America's diminished image in Latin America means that it will face additionaldifficulty when trying to accomplish its regional goals. n21 To address the issues confronting the U nited States vis-a-vis Latin America (i.e., drugs, the environment, trade, labor and human rights), Washingtonmust restore its heavily damaged image and regain its place as the region's trendsetter and leader.Resolving America's "Cuba problem" is a low-cost/high-reward strategy that would inject new energyand credibility into America's image. The Eight Recommendations found in this proposal are suggestionsthat the Obama Administration should consider as it moves to reengage Latin America. Part of America's

greatness is its ability to inspire practical solutions in people. Any new U.S.-Cuban policy should embracenot only America's uncanny ability to reinvent itself, but also the pragmatism that has made America sogreat to begin with.

Removing Sanctions now allows free flow of information which will create change forthe better in Cuba.Huddleston , 08. former co-director of the Brookings Project on U.S. Policy Toward aCuba in Transition ,(Vicki, 3-10-08, Brookings, Cuba Embargos Usefulness has Run its Course,http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2008/03/10-cuba-huddleston, 6/23/13,ND)

There can no longer be any doubt that our isolation of Cuba did not and cannot bring about the end of therevolution . What will bring about the revolution's demise are old age, illness and death. More important, the revolution willevolve as it loses its founding fathers and becomes increasingly less isolated from its neighbors thoughthe Internet, television, travelers and the flow of information. But how fast and how far the revolution evolves dependsupon U.S. policy. If we remove the barriers to communication, we will speed the forces of change. Justas was the case in Eastern Europe as a result of the Helsinki agreements, the Cuban people will beempowered by human contact, the free flow of information, and the support and encouragement ofAmericans and Cuban Americans from Florida to California. If U.S. policy can deal with Cuba -- not as a domesticpolitical issue -- but as one sovereign state to another, then we will resume official diplomatic relations with the exchange ofambassadors and begin -- once again -- to

talk about matters that affect the well being and security of both ourcountries, namely migration, anti-narcotics, health and the environment. Starting a dialogue will allow us to pressCuba's leaders to respect the principles that we and the region hold dear: human rights, rule of law and freedom. Removing thebarriers to communications and to normal diplomatic relations are not concessions as some would claim. Rather , they arepractical initiatives that will reduce the dependence of the Cuban people on the Cuban state byproviding them with alternative sources of information and resources to improve their daily lives. Morecritically , a policy based on helping the Cuban people succeed would enable them to build civil society and begin aprocess of growing democracy from the bottom up. But the Bush administration is standing by its policy that Cuba mustchange first, tying any modification in our unilateral embargo to the end of the Castro regime. This does us and the Cuban people a disservice
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because it ties our policy to that of Ral Castro's. By waiting for the Cuban regime to act, we make policy initiatives that would bring about

change, dependent on the actions of the Cuban government. The longer we wait the more likely that Cuba's newleaders will manage without us. In three to five years, Cuba, with help from foreign investors, will have exploited deep-sea oil andits sugar cane ethanol, adding billions to its annual revenues and making the island a net exporter of energy. Worse, the longer wewait, the slower the process of change . If we want to play a role in Cuba's future, we must act now to encouragechange in Cuba, by the Cuban people .

Unilateral action is the ONLY method of solvingAP 9 (Cuba Says U.S. Should Lift Embargo Unconditionally, Fox News, Sep 16, 2009,http://www.foxnews.com/world/2009/09/16/cuba-says-lift-embargo-unconditionally/?intcmp=related) ||DKCuba will not make any political or policy concessions to improve relations with the U.S. no matterhow small, Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez said Wednesday, snubbing Washington's suggestionsthat some reforms could lead to better ties. He told a news conference that the United States must liftits 47-year-old trade embargo without waiting for anything in return. Rodriguez said U.S. tradesanctions have cost the island $96 billion in economic damage since they took their current form inFebruary 1962 as part of the Trading with the Enemy Act. " The policy is unilateral and should be lifted

unilaterally," Rodriguez said. He called President Obama "well-intentioned and intelligent" and said thathis administration has adopted a "modern, less aggressive" stance toward the island. But Rodriguezshrugged off the White House's April decision to lift restrictions on Cuban-Americans who want tovisit or send money to relatives in this country, saying those changes simply undid a tightening of theembargo imposed by President George W. Bush. " Obama was a president elected on a platform ofchange. Where are the changes in the blockade against Cuba?" Rodriguez asked. Cuban officials have fordecades characterized American trade sanctions as a blockade. Obama has suggested it may be time fora new era in relations with Cuba, but has also said he will not consider lifting the embargo. On Monday,he signed a measure formally extending the policy for one year.

Empirics prove successful business cooperation with Cuba is impossible withoutcomplete embargo removalCreager 12 Ellen Creager Detroit Free Press travel writer Michigan State University BA, Journalism 8-24- 2012 Cuba US People toPeople Partnership http://cubapeopletopeople.blogspot.com/2012/08/people-to-people-in-bureaucratic-danger.html

Why it is happening, nobody is sure. But the Cuba "People to People" travel program touted so highly by President Obama in2011 is coming to a screeching halt, drowning in paperwork and non-renewed licenses for travelorganizations . Almost no organizations that got licenses from the U.S. Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)last year to sponsor trips to Cuba have received renewals . Trips that were advertised have been scrapped. Organizations are leftto wait without any updates or information. We work with about 30 different non -profit organizations that have programs toCuba in next 12 months, and 100% of them have not received renewals of license s, said Jim Friedlander, president of Academic ArrangementsAbroad in New York, a travel service provider, late Tuesday. He said that the practical effect of OFACs lack of activity is that it disrupts theentire People to People program. To me, this is contrary to the whole purpose of the president's 2011 loosening of travel for Americans to

Cuba. Because of the outdated U.S. embargo against Cuba that makes it illegal for Americans to travel there, mostAmericans have never been to Cuba unless on a family or religious visa. The People to People cultural travel program finally allowed thousandsof regular travelers to visit last year and early this year, interacting with Cubans in a meaningful way. But in May, the OFAC application for a

license to operate trips to Cuba under People to People grew from 6 pages to essentially hundreds of pages. Organizations seekingrenewal had to document every minute of every day for every single trip they had done in the past yearto prove that they were doing People to People activities and not tourism. Then, most of them heardnothing . Weeks and months passed. Licenses lapsed. Since OFAC is notoriously closed-mouth about its work and does not make public its listof licences, applicants have been able to get little information. But gradually they realized they were all in the same predicament. The U.S.Treasury press office on Tuesday did email me a comment from Jeff Braunger, program manager for Cuba Travel Licensing: We ha ve issuedapproximately 140 people-to-people licenses. We are doing our best to process both first-time applications and requests to renew existinglicenses. We receive numerous such requests which are being handled in turn. It is our goal to respond in a timely matter. I think this is
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2009/09/16/cuba-says-lift-embargo-unconditionally/?intcmp=relatedhttp://www.foxnews.com/world/2009/09/16/cuba-says-lift-embargo-unconditionally/?intcmp=relatedhttp://cubapeopletopeople.blogspot.com/2012/08/people-to-people-in-bureaucratic-danger.htmlhttp://cubapeopletopeople.blogspot.com/2012/08/people-to-people-in-bureaucratic-danger.htmlhttp://cubapeopletopeople.blogspot.com/2012/08/people-to-people-in-bureaucratic-danger.htmlhttp://cubapeopletopeople.blogspot.com/2012/08/people-to-people-in-bureaucratic-danger.htmlhttp://www.foxnews.com/world/2009/09/16/cuba-says-lift-embargo-unconditionally/?intcmp=relatedhttp://www.foxnews.com/world/2009/09/16/cuba-says-lift-embargo-unconditionally/?intcmp=related


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approximately one paragraph more information than all the organizations waiting for their renewals have gotten from his office. The thing

that alarms me most is that the groups Ive talked to seem intimidated and scared . They are afraid of going publicwith their concern , worried that if they seem to be complaining about months of delays that have caused them to cancel trips, losemoney and lay off staff, that OFAC will punish them by stowing their application on the bottom of a giant pile . Idont think thats true, but the very fact that companies are so skittish concerns me greatly. These are not fly-by-nightgroups. Typical groups that have -- or had -- Cuba People to People licenses include Harvard Alumni,The Metropolitan Museum of Art, National Geographic, Insight Cuba and the National Trust for HistoricPreservation, all reputable groups that ran ethical and very good culturally-rich trips . Now, a look at theirwebsites tells the story. Harvard has one trip p lanned for Dec. 27 but with this cav eat: Pending People to People license renewal. The Metwiped Cuba off its itinerary for now. National Geographic, which has run 29 trips taking 703 people total in the past year, is taking onlypreliminary waiting-list reservations for fall trips with no deposit. (A deposit, according to OFAC rules, is engaging in financial transaction withCuba and illegal if you have no license) Insight Cuba has suspended all trips for the past two months and is on hold, waiting for its renewal thatexpired in June. National Trust has 4 Cuba trips still on its 2012 itinerary, but with an asterisk: "Pending People to People License Renewal." Whether you are pro-Cuba travel or anti-Cuba travel, this whole thing shou ld concern you a lot. There is something sinister to me aboutpreventing citizens from traveling, then allowing them to do so, then throwing giant roadblocks to prevent them from going after all. So whyis it happening? It could be election year politics, with OFAC personnel covering their bases in case Democrats are out in November and

Republicans take over. It could be undue influence from the small but mighty faction of anti-Cuba types inCongress . It could be the White House consciously deciding to slow down the program for political reasons in exchange for something itwants from Cuba. Or it cou ld just be bureaucratic overload, with hapless workers struggling under an avalanche of paperwork it thought itneeded and no deadline, and meanwhile these worthy groups that have done so much work to run People to People trips to Cuba lose money,customers and confidence in their government.

Documents

Cuba Embargo Aff