AFF / NEG SUPPLEMENT****AFF****

EXPORT SOLVENCY

Exports are allowed so long as they benefit the people, not the governmentUS Treasury Dept. ’92 (Cuba Democracy Act, found at http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Documents/cda.pdf) GH(A) Subject to subparagraph (B), an export may be made under subsection (c) only if the President determines that the United States Government is able to verify, by onsite inspections and other appropriate means, that the exported item is to be used for the purposes for which it was intended and only for the use and benefit of the Cuban people.

DEAD ZONES INTERNAL

CORN ETHANOL REQUIRES MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF FERTILIZER INPUTS – DESTROYS WATER QUALITY AND RESULTS IN MARINE DEAD ZONESJonathan Volinski (J.D. candidate 2013, Tulane Univ. Law School; B.A. 2008, PoliSci & History, Syracuse Univ.) 2012[“Shucking Away the Husk of a Crop Gone Wrong: Why the Federal Government Needs To Replant Its Approach to Corn-Based Ethanol” 25 Tul. Envtl. L.J. 507, lexis, loghry]

The process of raising corn has serious effects upon the land on which it is grown. Most significantly, American corn production "requires more pesticides (which are made from oil) and nitrogen fertilizer (made from natural gas) than any other crop."

n79 In addition to the obvious GHG emissions implications of this process, the increased pesticide and fertilizer use exacerbates runoff problems in water supplies across the United States. The effects of the runoff are felt near and far as it makes its way through Midwestern streams to the Mississippi River and eventually to the Gulf of Mexico. n80 The nitrogen-rich runoff chokes the Gulf through the process of eutrophication, causing algae blooms and eventually depriving the water of oxygen. n81 This has led to the unfortunate phenomenon in the Gulf known as the "Dead Zone," an 8000 square mile area (as of 2010) of hypoxic water that is generally not conducive to marine life and has caused massive fish kills. n82 Regrettably,

this dead zone is projected to grow, as 2.39 million additional tons of nitrogen fertilizer will be needed to keep up with various mandates (discussed infra) by 2015. n83 Growing corn is also a very water-intensive process. The exact amount of water needed varies by region (due to rainfall and availability of natural sources) and can range from 19 gallons per bushel of corn in Iowa, Illinois, Ohio, or Missouri to 865 gallons in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas. n84 Areas like Nebraska, where 72% of the crop is irrigated, place a gigantic strain on already stressed groundwater [*518] aquifers - specifically, the Ogallala Aquifer, "which lies under the Great Plains and supplies 30% of the nation's groundwater for irrigation, [and] is in danger of running dry." n85 Moreover, processing corn into ethanol also requires substantial amounts of water. While the process is increasingly more efficient, demanding just 3 gallons of water per gallon of ethanol today, down from 6.8 gallons of water per gallon of ethanol a decade ago, it still represents a dramatic strain on an already overtaxed resource. n86 These problems are exacerbated by the large amount of corn necessary to produce ethanol. It takes approximately 450 pounds of corn to supply just one SUV with a full tank of fuel. n87 Corn planting will cover 94 million acres in 2012, up from 91.9 million acres in 2011. n88 As a comparison, Montana, the fourth largest state in the nation, covers roughly 93 million acres. n89 One can imagine the toll the pesticides and fertilizers necessary to support that much corn take on the nation's land and water resources. The corn industry shows no signs of slowing down either, indicating that the acreage necessary to support the nation's demand for the crop will continue to grow.

INVESTMENT INTERNALS

LIFTING THE EMBARGO WOULD IMMEDIATELY SPUR FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND BOLSTER SUGAR PRODUCTIONWalfrido Alonso-Pippo, et. Al. (Carlos A. Luengo, John Koehlinger, Pietro Garzone, Giacinto Cornacchia, Grupo Combustı´veis

Alternativos, Energy Consultant, & ENEA Trisaia Research Centre) 2008[“Sugarcane energy use: The Cuban case” Energy Policy 36 (2008) 2163– 2181, loghry]

Because of the political differences between the US and Cuban governments, the US government has imposed a commercial blockade on Cuba since 1962. The blockade prohibits the import of all Cuban products to the US and the export of any product from the US to Cuba.3 The US has also vetoed Cuban attempts to obtain credit from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the WB, forcing Cuba to pay cash in advance for needed imports. (In one notable exception to the blockade made in a concession to the interests of US farm states, the US sells foodstuffs to Cuba for advance cash payment.) The credits and foreign investment that Cuba is able to obtain through bilateral agreements customarily require quick repayment on unfavorable terms. In many of these cases, international lenders require Cuban sugar as collateral for the loans and credits. Overall, the net effect of the restrictions imposed by the US trade embargo has been to starve Cuba of hard currency, credit and direct foreign investment, which has in turn greatly impeded the recovery of the Cuban sugarcane agroindustry, along with other sectors of the Cuban economy.

INVESTMENT SOLVES

INVESTMENT SOLVES THE ONLY INTERNAL LINK TO SUGARCANE ETHANOL USAGE: MARKETSNicholas Elledge (Council on Hemispheric Affairs Research Fellow) 10/29/2009[“CUBA’S SUGARCANE ETHANOL POTENTIAL: CUBA, RAUL CASTRO, AND THE RETURN OF KING SUGAR TO THE ISLAND” online @ http://www.coha.org/cubas-sugarcane-ethanol-potential/, loghry]

Cuba’s sugar industry has suffered from long-term neglect and insufficient investment, and its productive role has been utilized more as a vehicle for short term profit than as an engine for long term economic growth. From 1959 to 1999, only six new sugarcane mills with the capacity to cogenerate electricity were built despite guaranteed financial backing from the Soviet Union for part of that time. Also at Havana’s disposal were several advanced sugarcane research institutions, such as the Institute for Sugar Investigation (ICINAZ) and the Cuban Research Institute of Sugarcane Derivates (ICIDCA). Gradual decapitalization, disrepair, and low morale, all a result of a largely insufficient investment and a lack of spare parts, brought about the infrastructural deterioration that led Castro to close the majority of the nation’s mills in 2002. It must be noted that Cuba’s ethanol and sugar production capacity will increase exponentially if direct foreign investment, which has been seen only sparingly up to now, is encouraged to enter by direct government policy. Starved by a recurrent shortage of hard currency, new capital inputs needed to modernize Cuban sugar mills would have to come from abroad. To rectify this current shortage, Walfrido Alonso-Pippo, who has been a member of the University of Havana, suggests an investment strategy similar to that used to fuel a Cuban natural gas power plant. He maintains that this “joint venture agreement for a recently constructed natural gas power plant could serve as a model for modernization of [Cuba’s] sugar bioenergy infrastructure. Under this existing arrangement, the foreign partner owns a third of the plant’s output, participates in its management, and receives a proportion of the plant’s profits.” Dr. Alonso-Pippo goes on to note that legal, institutional and political barriers to investment in Cuba have tended to remain a major obstacle, though recent heavy foreign investments in Brazil’s sugar ethanol production facilities suggest the feasibility of similar investments in Cuba. Another scenario under which Cuba could accelerate investment was offered by Stanford economist Paul Romer who has suggested starting a free trade zone in Guantanamo Bay in the southeastern part of Cuba, where the U.S. currently administers an area roughly twice the size of Manhattan. Comparable to the Chinese model of Communist rule and the design of free trade zones in the communist east, such a zone in Cuba’s eastern region, where the majority of the island’s sugarcane is grown, might be a catalyst for modernization, trade opportunities, investment, and integration. Under either Dr. Alonso-Pippo or Dr. Romer’s plans, Cuba would be a strong contender to receive the foreign investment necessary for a thriving economy without the political ramifications of foreign ownership and ideological clashes. When asked about sugarcane ethanol, an official posted to the Cuban Interests Section in Washington D.C., who preferred to remain anonymous, observed, “I don’t believe it would be good for us. Brazil has much more land. If anything, we would produce for our internal market and maybe with old partners like China.” However, in order for ethanol to be traded as a global commodity in the international market, a variety of producers and products must be developed globally. Brazil, rather than discouraging competition, has been looking for regional partners to create a Latin American market for sugarcane ethanol, offering technology sharing and market partnerships to several other countries in the region. Instead of avoiding competition, other Latin American nations could look without apprehension to Brazil as a likely benign partner rather than as a hegemonic regional competitor.

CUBA ECON ACE

WE DON’T HAVE TO WIN CUBA PRODUCES A SINGLE GALLON OF ETHANOL TO WIN OUR CUBAN ECONOMY ADVANTAGE – SUGAR EXPORTS OFFSET PRICE FLUCTUATIONS IN ETHANOL Ronald Soligo & Amy Myers Jaffe (prof. emeritus of econ. at Rice University & Fellow in Energy Studies at Rice) 2010[Cuba's Energy Future : Strategic Approaches to Cooperation Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, ed, p. 101, loghry]

Sugar prices rose very quickly in 2009 to levels that are high by historical standards, approaching 25 cents a pound. 46 At these prices, producing and exporting sugar is more attractive than ethanol. But these prices are the temporary consequence of bad weather in other sugar-producing areas and will not be sustained. Both sugar and ethanol are commodities that will trade on the basis of price, and since entry into those industries is relatively unconstrained, competition will push prices down toward costs. When sanctions are lifted. Cuba will be able to benefit from the fact that it is an island economy with easy access to cheap marine transport— and the close proximity to the United States. Sugar imports in the United States are limited by

quotas, so import volumes cannot change regardless of price. However, ethanol is protected by tariffs so imports can increase if domestic (U.S.) prices get too far ahead of world prices. The fact that sugar exports are an alternative to ethanol is an additional argument for the development of an ethanol industry. To the extent that sugar and ethanol prices are not closely correlated, Cuba can alter its output mix between the two products to take advantage of variations in sugar and ethanol prices and thus smooth out fluctuations in export revenues as well as maximize the income from its sugarcane industry.

CUBA ECON INTERNALS

PLAN MASSIVELY INCREASES ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CUBARonald Soligo & Amy Myers Jaffe (prof. emeritus of econ. at Rice University & Fellow in Energy Studies at Rice) 2010[Cuba's Energy Future : Strategic Approaches to Cooperation Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, ed, p. 105-6, loghry]

Our intention in this chapter was to present the case that Cuba’s energy potential is sufficient for Cuba to shift from its status as a net importer of roughly 100,000 barrels of oil a day to one of a net energy exporter. We have derived what we feel are conservative estimates of future energy demand and suggest that Cuba’s oil production potential alone could probably satisfy future energy demand growth, provided that Cuba begins to do something about its abnormally high energy transformation losses. In addition, we suggest that Cuba could produce upwards of 150 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas, equivalent to 77,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Finally, ethanol production of 2 billion gallons per year could replace 94,500 barrels per day of gasoline as well as 3,000 gigawatt-hours of electricity— 18 percent of current Cuban production— through cogeneration. It is not possible to generate estimates of Cuban demand for specific fuels, since Cuba will have a choice of which to use domestically and which to export, depending on the relative prices of various fuels in international markets. But it is clear that Cuba has the potential of being a significant exporter of several energy resources, shifting the country from a nation where energy poverty has negatively affected overall economic performance to a country where energy surpluses could support economic growth. The development of its energy resources could have a profound impact on Cuba’s economy. Simply replacing current oil imports would release foreign exchange for other developmental uses. For example, at $60 a barrel, 100,000 barrels per day of imports has a market value of $2.2 billion a year, roughly equivalent to all the earnings from the tourist industry. 53 Energy exports will add a further significant boost to the Cuban economy. The experience of Brazil is instructive. In the 1970s Brazil found itself facing financial crises when oil prices spiked as a result of Middle East instability. By contrast, Brazil in 2007 and 2008— by then a net exporter of energy— saw less economic hardship arising from the dramatic increase in oil prices than other industrialized countries in those years. Whether the scenarios discussed in this chapter are realistic can be established only when serious oil and natural gas exploration and development of Cuban assets begins. Cuba’s nascent potential in ethanol also remains theoretical so far. However, the recent political transition in Cuba and the change in administration in the United States make this an ideal time to reevaluate U.S.-Cuba policy, taking into consideration humanitarian issues as well as energy potential. Having an additional supplier of energy to the U.S. market from only a few miles off shore can only contribute to the United States’ energy security.

A2: TOURISM ECON ALT CAUSES

TOURISM DOESN’T SPUR JOB GROWTH OR TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION LIKE SUGARCANE DOESNicholas Elledge (Council on Hemispheric Affairs Research Fellow) 10/29/2009[“CUBA’S SUGARCANE ETHANOL POTENTIAL: CUBA, RAUL CASTRO, AND THE RETURN OF KING SUGAR TO THE ISLAND” online @ http://www.coha.org/cubas-sugarcane-ethanol-potential/, loghry]

Some argue that tourism, which in 2001 surpassed sugar as the leading gross hard currency earner in the Cuban economy, is an adequate substitute for the role that sugar once played. However, the tourism industry has proven altogether inadequate for that role. According to a study in 2006, the cost benefit ratio for tourism, as expressed in US dollars, is $0.78 to the dollar, while the comparative ratio for the sugar sector is nearly one-fifth the cost, with a ratio of $0.20 to the dollar. In addition, the formerly thriving sugar sector employed three times as many people as tourism does today. As well,

sugarcane over the years has contributed significantly to research and technological development whereas tourism has done little in terms of new technology for the country’s economic and social development. A peaceful coexistence of tourism and sugarcane industries may be the best-case scenario for Cuba; however, claims that tourism unilaterally can be an adequate replacement for the sugarcane industry might be dangerously overblown.

A2: SUGAR / FOOD TRADE-OFF

NO FOOD TRADE-OFF RELATED TO CUBAN SUGARCANE PRODUCTIONRonald Soligo & Amy Myers Jaffe (prof. emeritus of econ. at Rice University & Fellow in Energy Studies at Rice) 2010[Cuba's Energy Future : Strategic Approaches to Cooperation Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, ed, p.94, loghry]

Castro has rightly pointed out that there can be a direct trade-off between using land for food production and for ethanol. And in many areas of the world, the shift in land use to crops for ethanol has resulted in rapidly rising costs for food. There are also trade-offs between increasing acreage devoted to crops for ethanol and other objectives such as issues related to climate, environment, and biodiversity. In Brazil, for example, increasing acreage under sugarcane cultivation has resulted in shifting other crops to newly cleared areas, often in the rainforest, a process that ultimately could have devastating effects on climate and biodiversity within and beyond Brazil. Cuba,

however, has had a traditional comparative advantage in the production of sugar. Although some of the land used for sugar in the past is being shifted to food crops and reforestation, much of it is not currently being cultivated at all. Thus, for Cuba a restoration of the sugar economy does not necessarily have to involve environmental and food production trade-offs.

PLAN IMMEDIATELY CREATES A SUGARCANE ETHANOL INDUSTRY IN CUBA WITHOUT TRADING OFF WITH FOOD AVAILABILITYRonald Soligo & Amy Myers Jaffe (prof. emeritus of econ. at Rice University & Fellow in Energy Studies at Rice) 2010[Cuba's Energy Future : Strategic Approaches to Cooperation Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, ed, p.99-100, loghry]

The shift in acreage devoted to food crops has not been successful in terms of increasing food output, 43 but reforms to give farmers more discretion in how they operate might produce better results in the future. But significantly increasing acreage devoted to food crops will not be easy. Food crops are much more fragile than sugarcane, requiring more labor, weeding, pest control, and oversight than cane, which has been referred to as the “widow’s crop” because it requires relatively little attention. As noted previously, thousands of farm workers have migrated to urban areas and it will be difficult to lure them back. If economic sanctions are removed and Cuba enters the international commercial system, food security will be less important, and Cuban agriculture will be more likely to respond to international prices. Historically, Cuba has had a comparative advantage in producing sugar, not food crops; so opening the economy to freer trade might favor a return to the dominance of sugar and development of an ethanol industry. More recently, Cuba has expressed interest in producing and exporting soybeans, and the Brazilian government has offered “technical assistance and seed in order to grow soybeans on an industrial scale.” 44 Soybeans have many uses, including as a feedstock for the production of biodiesel, but it is not clear at this point whether soybeans represent a more efficient use of Cuban land than sugarcane.

A2: TARIFF ARGS

NEW FUEL STANDARDS MEAN SUGAR ETHANOL IS COMPETITIVE EVEN WITH THE TARIFF IN PLACERonald Soligo & Amy Myers Jaffe (prof. emeritus of econ. at Rice University & Fellow in Energy Studies at Rice) 2010[Cuba's Energy Future : Strategic Approaches to Cooperation Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, ed, p.97-8, loghry]

In 2009 the U.S. consumed 11.1 billion gallons of ethanol, almost all of it produced in the United States. U.S. policy favors domestic ethanol production by imposing an import tariff of 54 cents a gallon in addition to a 2.5 percent ad valorem tariff. Tariffs

have limited ethanol imports into the United States, but higher prices in Europe have also been a factor. As of 2009, the United States has been suffering from an excess of production capacity, which has depressed prices in the States relative to other importing countries. But as higher U.S. renewable fuel targets kick in and U.S. prices recover from overinvestment in capacity, imported sugar-based ethanol will be competitive with higher-cost U.S. corn-based ethanol in coastal regions of the United States, even if U.S. tariffs persist. Given the high costs to transport corn-based ethanol to coastal regions from the U.S. Midwest by rail or truck. 41 Cuba’s location gives it a large transport cost advantage over both domestic and foreign rivals.

A2: DEAD ZONES ALT CAUSES

ALT CAUSES DON’T MATTER – NITROGEN FROM FERTILIZER IS THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO DEAD ZONESGulf Restoration Network (The Gulf Restoration Network is committed to uniting and empowering people to protect and restore

the natural resources of the Gulf Region) 2012[“The Dead Zone” online @ https://healthygulf.org/our-work/healthy-waters/the-dead-zone, loghry]

The cause of the Dead Zone is not a mystery. There has been an almost threefold increase in nitrogen entering the Gulf from the Mississippi River and its tributaries in the last 30 years.4 The actual size of the Dead Zone varies each year due to

climate and ocean dynamics, though nitrogen remains the prime factor in causing the Dead Zone.5 The largest source of nitrogen is commercial fertilizer used throughout the Mississippi River basin – one of the agricultural centers of the United States. Other sources include animal waste, sewage treatment plants, and nitrogen in the atmosphere from fossil fuel combustion.

OIL ADVANTAGE

3 scenarios climate change & corruption & econ dispair

Sugar cane ethanol is the answer to the world’s addiction of fossil fuelsNewsweek 7 [“Sugar Rush,” Newsweek, http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2007/04/15/sugar-rush.html, accessed 79/13]

He won't be the last. Thanks to global climate change, sugar now is in big demand. The drum-beat of

alarm over global warming has set businesses clamoring for a piece of the sugar-cane action. There are plenty of other ways to make ethanol, of course, and scientists the world over are busy tinkering with everything

from switchgrass to sweet potatoes. U.S. farmers make it from corn, but with the scarcity of arable land there's just so

much they can plant without crowding out other premium crops, like soy beans. (Meantime, the combination of limited land and surging demand have sent corn prices through the roof). So far nothing beats sugarcane—which grows in the tropics—for an abundant, cheap source of energy. Unlike beets or corn, which are confined to temperate zones and must be transformed into carbohydrates before they can be converted into sugar and finally alcohol, sugarcane is already halfway there. That means the sugar barons like Ometto spend much less energy than the competition, not to mention money. The moral imperative of finding a substitute for fossil fuels has lent an air of respectability to new ventures to produce biofuels from sugar—a marked contrast to the sugar barons of old, known for their ruthless ways and their appetite for taxpayers' money. "The distillers who ten years ago were the bandits of agribusiness are becoming national and world heroes," Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Lula declared

recently. "[E]thanol and biodiesel are more than an answer to our dangerous 'addiction' to fossil fuels. This is the beginning of a reassessment of the global strategy to protect our environment."

US dependence on foreign oil bad for a multitude of reasons--security, economy, environmentLefton and Weiss 10 (A graduate of the University of Michigan with both a Bachelor of Arts and Master of Public Policy degrees, Weiss has been involved with presidential, Senate, and House campaigns) [Rebecca and Daniel, “Oil Dependence Is a Dangerous Habit,” Center for American Progress, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-a-dangerous-habit/, accessed 7/9/13]

A recent report on the November 2009 U.S. trade deficit found that rising oil imports widened our deficit, increasing the gap between our imports and exports. This is but one example that our economic recovery and long-term growth is inexorably linked to our reliance on foreign oil. The United States is spending approximately $1 billion a day overseas on oil instead of investing the funds at home, where our economy sorely needs it. Burning oil that exacerbates global warming also poses serious threats to our national security and the world’s security. For these reasons we need to kick the oil addiction by investing in clean-energy reform to reduce oil demand, while taking steps to curb global warming. In 2008 the United States imported oil from 10 countries currently

on the State Department’s Travel Warning List, which lists countries that have “long-term, protracted conditions that make a country dangerous or unstable.” These nations include Algeria, Chad,

Colombia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Iraq, Mauritania, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Syria. Our reliance on oil from these countries could have serious implications for our national security, economy, and environment.

Scenario 1 is corruption

US oil dependence in the Middle East is unstable—Corruption Cavell 2012 Global Research, April 11, 2012 11 April 2012 AMERICA’S DEPENDENCY ON MIDDLE EAST OIL PART II (http://www.globalresearch.ca/america-s-dependency-on-middle-east-oil/30177)

North America is the largest consumer of oil regionally, followed by Asia (primarily Japan), Europe, and then other world regions. Importing over 13.5 million barrels of oil per day, the U.S. is easily the world’s largest oil importer, accounting for over 63% of total U.S. daily consumption. “Oil from the Middle East (specifically, the Persian Gulf) accounts for 17 percent of U.S. oil imports, and this dependence is growing,” wrote Heritage Foundation researcher Ariel Cohen in April of 2006. ¶ Though the U.S. is a top producer of crude oil, its current rate of petroleum consumption is between 18 and 19 million barrels of oil per day, and its domestic production cannot handle the demand, hence its reliance on imported oil. As President George W. Bush stated in his 2006 State of the Union Address to the nation: “Keeping America

competitive requires affordable energy. And here we have a serious problem: America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world” (January 31, 2006). From the mouth of the nation’s top leader, the U.S. suffers from an addiction . Most modern machinery runs on oil and its utility is seen in everyday products from plastics to cosmetics, from paint to lubricants, and, most especially, as a source of fuel for the modern combustion engine. Over time, to feel “normal”, the addict develops an abnormal psychological dependency on the addictive substance and will utilize any means to obtain the drug

in spite of cultural or moral restraints. In the case of oil, this abnormal dependency has led the United States to engage in bribery and corruption to obtain oil, from control of markets to the exclusion of countries from such commerce, from the overthrow of regimes deemed belligerent because of their attempts to take control of their own oil resources to outright murder, assassination, and war. Indeed, few Americans today doubt that the recent eight-year war on Iraq (2003-2011) was conducted primarily to obtain oil. And this is why veteran scholar on the politics of oil, Dr. Michael Klare, concludes in a recent article that: “the Strait of Hormuz will undoubtedly remain the ground zero of potential

global conflict in the months ahead” (January 31, 2012).¶ When a U.S. President refers to the necessity to import oil from “unstable parts of the world,” what he means is that some regions of the world are asserting their sovereign right to control their natural resources, e.g. oil , and they are neither subordinate nor answerable to the U.S. government, especially as regards how much oil is produced and available for purchase on world markets and how much they wish to charge for this oil—hence, the nomenclature of “instability”. ¶ The world’s top oil producers are depicted in the table below [Table I], and it is not coincidental that major areas of U.S. foreign intervention over the past 50 years are focused on these countries.

Corruption leads to violenceMISA 11 [“Corruption leads to violence new World Bank report,” The Zimbabwean, Online, http://www.thezimbabwean.co/comment/39301/corruption-leads-to-violence--new-world-bank-report.html, accessed 7/10/11]Less well evident, however, until recently were the more insidious effects of corruption in spawning violence that not only threatens the viability and stability of whole nation states but can engulf them. Conflict, Security, and Development, the World Banks just-released 2011 World Development Report sheds new light on the intractable, age-old problems of weak governance, poverty, and violence. The new reports findings are unequivocal, and make for sober reading: Some 1.5 billion people live in countries affected by political and criminal violence causing human misery and disrupting development; Over 90 percent of civil wars in the 2000s occurred in countries that had already experienced a civil war in the previous 30 years; and Coercion and patronage may be seen by some governments as ways to preserve stability, but this is a mistake corruption, human rights abuses and low government effectiveness make countries 30-40% more vulnerable to violence. The new reports findings are particularly poignant for Africa, home to 23 out of the worlds most conflict-affected and fragile economies. And conflict impacts negatively on development. Preliminary estimates suggest that Cte dIvoires conflict has cost over1,000 lives of men, women and children, displaced another 1 million, reduced GDP by between 3 to7 percent, pushed up poverty between 2.5 to 4 percentage points, and created additional fiscal needs of between 4 and 5 percent of GDP. Building strong, legitimate institutions and governance that provide citizen security, justice, and jobs are all crucial to break cycles of violence. The report points out that it took the 20 fastest-moving countries an average of 17 years to get the military out of politics, 20 years to achieve functioning bureaucratic quality, and 27 years to bring corruption under reasonable control. Put another way, tackling corruption and violence is a generational task requiring sustained effort, and is not for the weak or those prone to wavering. It crucially requires dogged commitment to improving confidence between citizens and the state. For governments, this means accepting, for example, that ruling parties cannot tackle violence successfully alone, but need to build citizen engagement and coalitions in support of change. And confidence-building involves signaling a break with the past - through credible early results and measures that convincingly lock-in commitments to change. Countries like Ghana and Mozambique have shown that this is possible. That is why Robert B. Zoellick, World Bank Group President, recently noted that good governance will not happen without the active participation of citizens, and why the new strategy for World Bank engagement in Africa has governance, and institution- and capacity-building at its foundation. That is why the African Unions efforts to define and promote shared political, economic and social values and behavior are critical and deserve support. That is also the reason we must continue to measure and promote progress as done by the Ibrahim Index of African Governance and its four indicators: Safety and Rule of Law, Participation and Human Rights, Sustainable Economic Opportunity and Human Development. It is no coincidence that conflict-affected countries in Africa are relegated to the bottom of the Index. Much of the economic news from sub-Saharan Africa has been increasingly positive - pre crisis growth of about 5 percent per annum for a decade in many countries; poverty reduction at a faster rate than anywhere else in the world; and a speedy return to pre-crisis economic expansion because of exemplary domestic policies. Africa is now poised to take off much as Brazil and India did some decades ago if only it can make the structural links between citizen security, justice and jobs in conflict and violence prevention, and include mechanisms to build confidence between citizens and the state. Africa must also strengthen governance while curbing systemic corruption. Citizens, investors and the rest of the world are taking note. Need we say more?

Violence leads to warKurtenbach ’11Sabine (political scientist and Senior Research Fellow at the GIGA Institute of Latin American Studies, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Development at the University of Duisburg-Essen) November [“State-Building, War and Violence: Evidence from Latin America,” GIGA Research Programme: Violence and Security, online at http://www.giga-hamburg.de/dl/download.php?d=/content/publikationen/pdf/wp181_kurtenbach.pdf, July 10, 2013, Hostert]

Under the general heading of organized violence, the agents of the states characteristically carry on four

different activities: 1) War making: Eliminating or neutralizing their own rivals outside the territories in which they have clear and continuous priority as wielders of force.

Iran not afraid to start WWIII—result would be a deathblow to US hegemony and economyMarcus 13 [“Global tension mounts: Iran warns U.S. an attack on nuclear facilities would trigger World War III,” The Extinction Protocol, Online, http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2013/04/15/global-tension-mounts-iran-warns-u-s-an-attack-on-nuclear-facilities-would-trigger-world-war-iii/, accessed 7/10/11]

Iran ratcheted up its vitriol against Israel and the United States over the weekend, warning that an attack on the Islamic regime’s nuclear facilities could lead to global war. The rhetoric eerily matched that

currently coming out of North Korea against its perceived enemies. “Iran will not stand by in the face of such aggression,” Ali Ahani, Iran’s ambassador to France, said Sunday, according to the Islamic regime’s PressTV. “This can entail a chain of violence that may lead to World war III. A potential Israeli attack against Iran with an objective of

destroying its scientific and nuclear facilities is sheer madness. Its consequences are disastrous and uncontrollable.” The deputy chief

of staff of Iran’s armed forces, Brig. Gen Masoud Jazayeri, warned the United States on Saturday that Iran would continue its nuclear program. “We would not trade off our rights,” he said, adding that Iran would stand with North Korea in its faceoff with America. According to Mehr News, Jazayeri blamed the tension on the Korean Peninsula on the U.S. presence in the region. “Whenever necessary, we would stop the U.S. excessive demands,” he said. “The Islamic Revolution will never leave its past and present friends.

The U.S. and its allies will suffer great losses if a war breaks out in this region.” The commander of the Islamic regime’s ground forces, Brig. Gen. Ahmad Reza Poordastan, in his speech at Friday Prayers, also warned “the enemies” that the country’s army has its finger on the trigger and that any attack on the country will make the “enemy” regret its actions. All enemy activities at Iran’s borders and in the region are being monitored by the country’s intelligence analysts, and Iran’s armed

forces are prepared for any scenario, he said. The regime’s PressTV ran an op-ed analysis on Saturday with a headline “Iran deals deathblow to U.S. global hegemony.” The analysis, by Finian Cunningham, an Irishman whom the outlet calls “a prominent

expert in international affairs,” blames America for much of the world’s problems and warns of its decline. “Iran, however, presents a greater and more problematic challenge to U.S. global hegemony,” Cunningham wrote. “The U.S. in 2013 is a very different animal from what it was in 1945. Now it resembles more a lumbering giant. Gone is its former economic prowess and its

arteries are sclerotic with its internal social decay and malaise. … Iran exerts a controlling influence over the vital drug that keeps the American economic system alive – the world’s supply of oil and gas. Any war with Iran, if the U.S. were so foolish to embark on it, would result in a deathblow to the waning American and global economy.” Cunningham said the story will not end there: “The attainment of world peace, justice and sustainability does not only necessitate the collapse of American hegemony. We need to overthrow the underlying capitalist economic system that gives rise to such destructive hegemonic powers. Iran represents a deathblow to the American empire, but the people of the world will need to build on the ruins.” The world powers once again failed at Almaty, Kazakhstan, to get Iran to stop its uranium enrichment program and allow further inspections of its nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The talks, which lasted two days, were held last week between Iran and the 5-plus-1 powers: the United States, Britain France, Russia, China, plus Germany. –WND

Scenario 2 is economic disparity

Dependence on foreign oil puts the US in a dangerous position and causes economic disparity in oil producing countriesLefton and Weiss 10 (A graduate of the University of Michigan with both a Bachelor of Arts and Master of Public Policy degrees, Weiss has been involved with presidential, Senate, and House campaigns) [Rebecca and Daniel, “Oil Dependence Is a Dangerous Habit,” Center for American Progress, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-a-dangerous-habit/, accessed 7/9/13]

Oil imports fuel “dangerous or unstable” governments The United States imported 4 million barrels of oil a day—or 1.5 billion barrels total—from “dangerous or unstable” countries in 2008 at a cost of about $150 billion. This estimate excludes Venezuela, which is not on the State Department’s “dangerous or unstable” list but has maintained a distinctly anti-American foreign and energy policy. Venezuela is one of the top five oil exporters to the United States, and we imported 435

million barrels of oil from them in 2008. As a major contributor to the global demand for oil the United States

is paying to finance and sustain unfriendly regimes. Our demand drives up oil prices on the global market, which oftentimes benefits oil-producing nations that don’t sell to us. The Center for American Progress finds in “Securing America’s Future: Enhancing Our National Security by Reducing oil Dependence and Environmental Damage,” that “because of this, anti-Western nations such as Iran—with whom the United States by law cannot trade or buy oil—benefit

regardless of who the end buyer of the fuel is.” Further, the regimes and elites that economically benefit from rich energy resources rarely share oil revenues with their people, which worsens economic disparity in the countries and at times creates resource-driven tension and crises. The State Department cites oil-related violence in particular as a danger in Nigeria, where more than 54 national oil workers or businesspeople have been kidnapped at oil-related facilities and other infrastructure since January 2008. Attacks by insurgents on the U.S. military and civilians continue to

be a danger in Iraq. Our oil dependence will also be increasingly harder and more dangerous to satisfy. In 2008 the United States consumed 23 percent of the world’s petroleum, 57 percent of which was imported. Yet the United States holds less than 2 percent of the world’s oil reserves. Roughly 40 percent of our imports came from Canada, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia, but we can’t continue relying on these allies. The majority of Canada’s oil lies in tar sands, a very dirty fuel, and Mexico’s main oil fields are projected

dry up within a decade. Without reducing our dependence on oil we’ll be forced to increasingly look to more antagonistic and volatile countries that pose direct threats to our national security.

US dependence in the Middle East tanks national security preventing the US from placing sanctions on Iran and destabilizing the economy Hannah 2012 (John Hannah is a contributor to Foreign Policy's Shadow Government blog and a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.)Energy insecurity: How oil dependence undermines America's effort to stop the Iranian bombPosted By John Hannah Friday, October 12, 2012 - 1:06 PM (http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012 /10/12/energy _ insecurity_how_oil_dependence_undermines_america_s_effort_to_stop_the_irania)Energy issues have figured prominently in Governor Romney's campaign. Achieving "North American energy independence" has been a central pillar of the 5-point economic plan that he's been touting -- including at last week's first presidential debate. A bit surprising, then, that in the governor's October 8th foreign policy speech, with its heavy emphasis on the Middle East, energy didn't even merit a mention.¶ Let's face it.

Ensuring the free flow of oil has been the main driver of American strategy in the Middle East for decades. Our nation's economic wellbeing depends on a well-supplied global oil market, and countries in the Middle East account for a significant portion of the world's production. The cartel they dominate, OPEC, today controls between 30 and 40 percent of

the international market while possessing the vast majority of the world's proven reserves.¶ As a result, America and the global economy are incredibly vulnerable to what happens in the region. Every U.S. recession but one since World War II has been preceded by an oil price shock . And in the majority of cases, those shocks have been triggered by events originating in the Middle East. Think the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the 1979 Iranian revolution, or Saddam's 1991 invasion of Kuwait.¶ But you don't have to go back that far to appreciate the problem we face. Last year's revolution in Libya,

along with broader unrest across the Arab world, sent oil prices skyrocketing. Ditto Iran's threats in January to blockade the Straits of Hormuz. And concern about an eventual war with Iran continue to impose a significant risk premium on global prices, a reality Americans confront every day at the gas pump. Even short of tipping the economy back into recession, the effects of this kind of price volatility are highly negative: our trade deficit rises; disposable income and consumer spending decline; and economic growth takes a significant hit.¶ Concerns about oil prices have often badly distorted U.S. policy toward the Middle East. The most acute example is the effort to pressure Iran to give up its nuclear weapons ambitions. U.S. policymakers have long known that the most effective step we could take against the mullahs is to cut off Iran's oil sales and starve them of the enormous revenues they need to keep their repressive regime afloat. Yet for years, first President Bush and then President Obama fiercely resisted sanctioning the Islamic Republic's petroleum sector. The reason? Because they quite legitimately feared that removing Iranian crude from the market would disrupt global

supplies and trigger a devastating price shock. Only in late 2011, with Iran rapidly approaching the nuclear threshold, did Congress finally steamroll the administration by forcing through legislation that targeted Iranian oil.¶ Even then, implementation of the sanctions was watered down. The administration was given a six-month grace

period to assess the possible impact that sanctions would have on the global oil market. And rather than demanding that customers of Iranian oil end their purchases entirely, countries were granted waivers from U.S. sanctions if they only "significantly reduced" their buy -- which in practice required them to cut back between 15 and 20

percent. While the U.S. effort, together with complimentary EU sanctions, have no doubt had a major effect on Iran's economy -- reducing its oil exports by as much as 50 percent -- a full embargo would have been far more impactful and the obvious course of action for Washington to pursue if not for the countervailing concern about oil markets. In the meantime, the Iranian regime continues to pocket perhaps $3 billion per

month from the million or so barrels of oil that it still exports daily, all the while pressing ahead with its nuclear program.¶ America doesn't have a higher national security priority than stopping the world's most dangerous regime from going nuclear. And yet the sad reality is that our dependence on oil has for years, and to our great peril, systematically deterred us from fully deploying the most powerful tool in our arsenal -- all-out sanctions on Iran's petroleum sector -- for resolving the crisis peacefully. Not surprisingly, that underlying logic applies in spades when it comes to any discussion about the possible use of force against Iran, where predictions of oil spiking to an

economy-crippling $200 per barrel are commonplace.¶ The fact that our oil vulnerability has put such severe constraints on our freedom-of-maneuver to address the most pressing national security threat we face is deeply troubling. The big question is whether we can do anything about it. Admittedly, history doesn't offer much reason for

optimism. For almost 40 years, successive U.S. presidents have promised to tackle the problem with very little to show for it.¶ Of course, what's different today is that the United States is experiencing an oil and gas boom that promises to transform our energy landscape in very fundamental ways. Thanks to American ingenuity and technology, U.S. production is poised to increase dramatically over the next decade, after years of steep decline. As Governor Romney has correctly emphasized, through close cooperation with democratic allies in Canada and Mexico,

the goal of energy self-sufficiency for North America may well be within reach -- an unthinkable prospect just a few years ago, and one whose benefits in terms of job creation and economic growth could be quite profound.¶ In addition to the potential economic windfall, however, we also need to be thinking hard about how we

can best exploit the coming energy boom to really enhance U.S. national security. That's a much more difficult task. The fact is that because there's a global market for oil, Middle East crises are likely to threaten the U.S. economy with major price spikes no matter how much of our own crude we produce. Just look at Canada and England. While both are oil independent, they remain exposed to the same price volatility that currently afflicts the United States. Their economies will be no more

insulated than ours if a war with Iran sends the cost of oil through the roof.¶ It seems that what really needs to be part of the mix is a viable, bipartisan, market-driven strategy for reducing the monopoly that oil has over our transportation sector. If a sensible way could be found to begin moving some significant portion of U.S. cars and trucks to run on cheaper, domestically produced alternative fuels -- natural gas, methanol, electric

-- it would largely eliminate the sword of Damocles that Middle Eastern tyrannies like Iran now hold over the West's economic wellbeing and its strategic decision-making. That would put us on the path toward true energy independence, and restore to the United States a degree of flexibility, leverage, and strength to pursue its interests and values abroad, especially in the Middle East, that we have not known for at least a generation.¶ All much easier said than done, I know -- especially in an environment where energy issues, like the national budget, have become so politically charged. Nevertheless, hope springs eternal. Perhaps once the upcoming election is over, a new administration will be prepared to look seriously at developing a bipartisan, comprehensive energy strategy that both fully exploits America's new oil and gas bonanza while taking meaningful steps to reduce our vulnerability to extortion by hostile, repressive dictatorships in unstable parts of the world.¶ If it is, one place that a new president should definitely look to mobilize ideas as well as political support is Securing America's Future Energy (an organization that I'm proud to advise), which has brought together an extraordinary group of American business and military leaders to highlight both the economic as well as national security dangers posed by our dependence on oil, and to recommend possible solutions. Co-chaired by Fred Smith, CEO of FedEx and General P.X. Kelley, former commandant of the Marine Corps, the group includes such luminaries as General Jack Keane, former vice chief of the Army; Admiral Dennis Blair, former director of national intelligence; David Steiner, CEO of Waste Management; Herb Kelleher, founder of Southwest Airlines; and John Lehman, former undersecretary of the Navy. A pretty hard-nosed bunch, to be sure, that has decades of experience operating on the front lines of the global economy and national security, and is convinced that America can and must get after this challenge as soon as possible.¶ For the country's sake, we should all hope that they're right.

Economic collapse causes global nuclear wars Harris & Burrows 2009 PhD European History @ Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) & member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit Mathew, and Jennifer “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf  

Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is likely to be the result of a number of intersecting and interlocking forces. With so many possible permutations of outcomes, each with ample  Revisiting the

Future opportunity for unintended consequences, there is a growing sense of insecurity. Even so, history may be more instructive than ever. While we continue to believe that the Great Depression is not likely to be repeated,

the lessons to be drawn from that period include the harmful effects on fledgling democracies and multiethnic societies (think Central Europe in 1920s and 1930s) and on the sustainability of multilateral institutions (think League of Nations in the same period). There is no reason to think that this would not be true in the twenty-first as much as in the twentieth century. For that reason, the ways in which the   potential for   greater   conflict   could grow  would seem to be even more apt in   a constantly   volatile economic environmen t  as they would be if change would be steadier. In surveying those risks, the report stressed the likelihood that terrorism

and nonproliferation will remain priorities even as resource issues move up on the international agenda. Terrorism’s appeal will decline if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced .  For those terrorist groups that remain active in 2025, however, the diffusion of technologies and scientific knowledge will

place some of the world’s most dangerous capabilities within their reach. Terrorist groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of descendants of long established groups_inheriting organizational structures, command and control processes, and training procedures

necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks_and newly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised that  become self-radicalized, particularly in the absence of economic outlets   that would become narrower in an economic downturn. The most dangerous casualty of any   economically-induced   drawdown of U.S. military presence would almost certainly be the Middle East. Although Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons is not

inevitable, worries about a nuclear-armed Iran couldlead states   in the region   to develop new security arrangements with external powers, acquire additional weapons,   and consider pursuing their own nuclear ambitions .  It is not clear that the type of stable deterrent relationship that existed between the great powers for most of

the Cold War would emerge naturally in the Middle East with a nuclear Iran. Episodes of low intensity conflict and terrorism taking

place under a nuclear umbrella could lead to an unintended escalation and broader conflict  if clear red lines

between those states involved are not well established. The close proximity of potential nuclear rivals combined with underdeveloped surveillance capabilities and mobile dual-capable Iranian missile systems also will produce inherent difficulties in achieving reliable indications and warning of an impending nuclear attack. The lack of strategic depth in neighboring states like

Israel, short warning and missile flight times, and uncertainty of Iranian intentions may place more focus on preemption rather than defense, potentially leading to escalating crises. 36 Types of conflict that the world

continues to experience, such as over resources, could reemerge, particularly if protectionism grows and there is a resort to neo-mercantilist practices. Perceptions of renewed energy scarcity will drive countries to take actions

to assure their future access to energy supplies. In the worst case, this could   result in interstate conflicts if government leaders deem assured access to energy resources, for example, to be essential for maintaining domestic stability

and the survival of their regime. Even actions short of war, however, will have important geopolitical implications. Maritime security concerns are providing a rationale for naval buildups and modernization efforts, such as China’s and India’s development of

blue water naval capabilities.  If  the fiscal stimulus focus for   t hese countries indeed turns inward, one of the most obvious funding targets may be military. Buildup of regiona l  naval capabilities could lead to increased tensions, rivalries, and counterbalancing moves, but it also will create opportunities for multinational

cooperation in protecting critical sea lanes.With water also becoming scarcer in Asia and the Middle East, cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to be increasingly difficult both within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world .

Nuclear war would leave millions dead—the survivors would suffer effects from radiation for the rest of their livesNissani 92 (Ph.D., Genetics, University of Pittsburgh, 1975, B.A., philosophy, psychology, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 1972) [“Lives in the Balance: the Cold War and American Politics, 1945-1991.” Ch. 2: CONSEQUENCES OF NUCLEAR WAR, Online, http://www.is.wayne.edu/MNISSANI/PAGEPUB/CH2.html, accessed 7/10/13]The direct effects of nuclear war can be presented as a series of projections of increasing severity.3,5,6,11,16 I. If only two well-armed countries (e.g., Cold War America and Russia) are involved in the gloomy encounter, and if each detonates less than 10 percent of its total nuclear arsenal over the other's largest cities, the mildest imaginable outcome is 35 million dead and 10 million seriously injured in each country, with one-half the total industrial capacity of each side destroyed. Within 40 years of the war's end, local and global fallout may cause 1 million thyroid cancers, 300,000 other cancers, 1.5 million thyroid abnormalities, 100,000 miscarriages, and, perhaps, 300,000 genetic defects. We have noted earlier the higher incidence of severe disfigurement, vision impairment, increased susceptibility to disease, chronic malaise, and other lifelong emotional and social problems among Hiroshima survivors. Even in the most optimistic projection of an all-out war, some 150 large cities are hit, leaving thousands of times as many immediate survivors and personal tragedies as in Hiroshima. Even the most optimistic war projection must assume the use of surface bursts. Although surface bursts cause less immediate urban destruction than air bursts, they can best serve the presumably important strategic objectives of destroying well-protected military installations (like land-based missiles in the American Midwest) and of contaminating an opponent's homeland. In the event of a Russian/American war, the use of surface bursts would, in turn, result in contamination of an area of some 25,000 square miles (the size of West Virginia) in either country. Much of this contamination will cover lands where cities once stood. The survivors could be faced, therefore, with the unpleasant choice of living among the ruins of contaminated cities, building new cities, or waiting years, decades, or centuries for the old cities to become safe again. II. A likelier projection still confines the war to two major nuclear-weapon states, but assumes more bombs and more targets. This projection entails the death of about 100 million people in either country, the virtual destruction of the industrial and military capacity of both, long-term radioactive contamination of 50,000 square miles, and, during the first 40 years, 5 million thyroid cancers, 13 million other cancers, 7 million thyroid abnormalities, 10 million spontaneous abortions and, possibly, several million genetic defects. In this projection, practically all surviving Russians and Americans would have suffered like Hiroshima survivors.

Clean energy would help to spur the US economy

Lefton and Weiss 10 (A graduate of the University of Michigan with both a Bachelor of Arts and Master of Public Policy degrees, Weiss has been involved with presidential, Senate, and House campaigns) [Rebecca and Daniel, “Oil Dependence Is a Dangerous Habit,” Center for American Progress, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-a-dangerous-habit/, accessed 7/9/13]

The United States has an opportunity right now to reduce its dependence on foreign oil by adopting clean-energy and global warming pollution reduction policies that would spur economic recovery and long-term sustainable growth. With a struggling economy and record unemployment, we need that money invested here to enhance our economic competitiveness. Instead of sending money abroad for oil, investing in clean-energy technology innovation would boost growth and create jobs. Reducing oil imports through clean-energy reform would reduce money sent overseas for oil, keep more money at home for investments, and cut global warming pollution. A Center for American Progress analysis shows that the

clean-energy provisions in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and ACES combined would generate approximately $150 billion per year in new clean-energy investments over the next decade. This government-induced spending will come primarily from the private sector, and the investments would

create jobs and help reduce oil dependence. And by creating the conditions for a strong economic recovery, such as creating more finance for energy retrofits and energy-saving projects and establishing loans for manufacturing low-carbon products, we can give the United States the advantage in the clean-energy race. Investing in a clean-energy economy is the clear path toward re-establishing our economic stability and strengthening our national security.

Scenario 3 is environmentUS Oil Dependency accelerates climate changeLefton and Weiss 10 (A graduate of the University of Michigan with both a Bachelor of Arts and Master of Public Policy degrees, Weiss has been involved with presidential, Senate, and House campaigns) [Rebecca and Daniel, “Oil Dependence Is a Dangerous Habit,” Center for American Progress, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-a-dangerous-habit/, accessed 7/9/13]

Climate change is a major threat to U.S. and world security Meanwhile, America’s voracious oil appetite continues to contribute to another growing national security concern: climate change. Burning oil is one of the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions and therefore a major driver of climate change, which if left unchecked could have very serious security global implications. Burning oil imported from “dangerous or unstable” countries alone released 640.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which is the same as keeping

more than 122.5 million passenger vehicles on the road. Recent studies found that the gravest consequences of climate change could threaten to destabilize governments, intensify terrorist actions, and displace hundreds of millions of people due to increasingly frequent and severe natural disasters, higher incidences of diseases such as malaria, rising sea levels, and food and water shortages. A 2007 analysis by the Center for American Progress concludes that the geopolitical implications of climate change could include wide-spanning social, political, and environmental consequences such as “destabilizing levels of internal migration” in developing countries and more immigration into the United States. and require already strapped resources to be sent abroad. The U.S. military will face increasing pressure to deal with these crises, which will further put our military at risk . Global warming-induced natural disasters will create emergencies that demand military aid , such as Hurricane Katrina at home and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami abroad. The world’s poor will be put in the most risk, as richer countries are more able to adapt to climate change. Developed countries will be responsible for aid efforts as well as responding to crises from climate-induced mass migration Military and intelligence experts alike recognize that global warming poses serious environmental, social, political, and military risks that we must address in the interest of our own defense. The Pentagon is including climate change as a security threat in its 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review, a congressionally mandated report that updates Pentagon priorities every four years. The State Department will also incorporate climate change as a national security threat in its Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review. And in September the CIA created the Center on Climate Change and National Security to provide guidance to policymakers surrounding the national security impact

of global warming. Leading Iraq and Afghanistan military veterans also advocate climate and clean-energy policies because they understand that such reform is essential to make us safer. Jonathan Powers, an Iraq war veteran and chief operating officer for the Truman National Security Project, said “We recognize that climate change is already affecting destabilized states that have fragile governments. That’s why hundreds of veterans in nearly all 50 states are standing up with Operation Free—because they know that in those fragile states, against those extremist groups, it is our military that is going to have to

act.” The CNA Corporation’s Military Advisory Board determined in 2007 that “Climate change can act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world, and it presents significant national security challenges for the United States.” In an update of its 2007 report last year CNA found that climate change, energy dependence, and national security are interlinked challenges. The report, “Powering America’s Defense: Energy and the Risks to National Security,” reiterates the finding that fossil fuel dependence is unequivocally compromising our national security. The board

concludes, “Overdependence on imported oil—by the U.S. and other nations—tethers America to unstable and hostile regimes, subverts foreign policy goals, and requires the U.S. to stretch its military presence across the globe.” CNA advises, “Given the national security threats of America’s current energy posture, a major shift in energy policy and practice is required.”

Climate change causes natural disasters—affects the world’s poor the mostKloeppel 13 (writer for the Huffington Post) [Amanda, “Climate Change will Hurt the World’s Poor,” The Borgen Project, Online, http://borgenproject.org/climate-change-will-hurt-the-worlds-poor/, accessed 7/10/13]

Climate change is becoming an increasingly large issue especially when it comes to the world’s poor. The World Bank released a report detailing some of the impacts climate change could have on the developing world and have committed billions of dollars to combat the effects in countries in Africa and Asia, regions deemed to be hit the hardest. The US is one of the largest contributors to the World Bank and it is noteworthy to pay attention to how they are spending their dollars and causes the World Bank

deems important. Even a 2 degree change in global temperature, a level previously thought safe, can cause many disasters. Events such as extreme heat, water scarcity and drought, rising sea levels, and intense hurricanes have already been seen across the global south and it is the poor countries that stand to suffer the most. The World Bank predicts even the 2 degree change will impact food security and destroy communities reliant on agricultural and food production. In Asia, rising sea levels can lead to the destruction of sea life and lead to cyclones that cause significant damage and loss of life. To continue to fight global hunger and eradicate poverty, developing nations must be supported in the fight against climate change and given the tools they need to adequately prepare and react to changes in weather. The report the World Bank released gives a strong warning to leaders to raise their efforts to fight against climate change and provide help to the countries who stand to lose the most. This fall, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will publish its 5th annual assessment with the latest information on climate change making the World Bank’s efforts even more necessary.

****NEG****

NEOLIB LINKS

LIFTING THE TRADE EMBARGO LOCKS IN NEOLIBERAL CONTROL OF CUBACarmen G. Gonzalez (Associate Professor, Seattle University School of Law) Fall 2004[“SYMPOSIUM: WHITHER GOES CUBA? PROSPECTS FOR ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT PART II OF II: Trade Liberalization, Food Security, and the Environment: The Neoliberal Threat to Sustainable Rural Development” 14 Transnat'l L. & Contemp. Probs. 419, lexis, loghry]

The neoliberal economic reforms of the last two decades reinforced cash crop production at the expense of food production, frustrated economic [*496] diversification and industrialization, exacerbated rural poverty, and institutionalized the double standard that permits protectionism in the industrialized world while requiring market openness in the developing word. As explained in Part V, leveling the playing field by eliminating the trade-distorting subsidies and protectionist import barriers of the United States and the EU is necessary but not sufficient to address the problem of hunger and environmental degradation in the developing world. First, trade liberalization in the industrialized world will not address the distortions and inequities caused by the monopolization of agricultural markets by a small number of transnational corporations. Second, trade

liberalization, even if applied in an even-handed manner, will reinforce the specialization of many developing countries in agricultural export production by precluding these countries from using the protectionist tools utilized by the United States, Western Europe, Japan, and the NICs of East Asia to industrialize and diversify their economies. Third, the elimination of U.S. and EU subsidies is anticipated to increase crop specialization in the developing world, thereby undermining the biological diversity necessary for healthy agroecosystems.Cuba is the only country in the western hemisphere that has rejected the neoliberal model and has embarked on a nation-wide experiment in sustainable agriculture. Cuba was able to adopt an autonomous development path only after the collapse of the socialist trading bloc and the tightening of the U.S. embargo. Indeed, Cuba's unique experiment is a product of economic and political isolation. Once the U.S. economic embargo is lifted, Cuba will be under intense pressure to abandon its autonomous development path and adopt neoliberal reforms. The consequences are likely to be devastating.

DEAD ZONES ANSWERS – SOLVENCY

CANT SOLVE DEAD ZONES – ANIMAL WASTE, AUTOMOBILES, COAL POWER PLANTS, AND WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALL ALTERNATE CAUSESSally Ride Earth (NASA educational outreach program enabling students, teachers, and the public to learn about Earth from the unique

perspective of space) 2013[“Dead Zones in The Gulf of Mexico” online @ https://earthkam.ucsd.edu/ek-images/investigating_images/gulfmexico, loghry]

The Dead Zone in the Gulf of Mexico is caused by human activities in the upstream Mississippi River watershed, and enhanced by natural changes in the environment and climate or weather. Contributors include nitrogen fertilizer, animal manure, atmospheric deposition as a result of automobiles and fossil-fueled power plants, and waste. Pollution areas as indicated by red text. Farmers spray their land with pesticides and other types of fertilizers, in order to protect their crops. When it rains, soil is washed off the farms and into nearby rivers and bodies of water. The farm runoff includes animal manure, fertilizers, and heavy metals. Downstream, in this case, the Mississippi River Delta and the Gulf of Mexico, the pollutants cause eutrophication – the presence of an excess amount of nutrients (ie., nitrogen and phosphorous). Algal blooms result from this process. Eventually, the blooms die and fall to the sea floor, where they then decompose. During decomposition, oxygen is consumed. In the summer, the oxygen is so depleted that the water becomes stratified, thus preventing the water along the ocean floor from becoming re-oxygenated. The oxygen levels fall to below the minimum amount necessary for aquatic life. The weather – sun intensity, and rain – also causes dead zones. Strong sun intensity (most abundant in summer) aids algal growth. High rainfall increases runoff of nutrients to the Gulf.

AFF CAN’T SOLVE DEAD ZONES – TILE DRAINED AGRICULTURE IN THE MISSISSIPPI BASIN HAS LEAD TO FASTER INJECTION OF NITROGEN INTO THE GULF. NO MORE NITROGEN IS BEING USED NOW THAN WAS USED 30 YEARS AGO. THIS EVIDENCE QUOTES MARK DAVID, A BIOCHEMIST AND RESEARCHER FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS**Science Daily (staff) 9/27/2010[“Cause of Dead Zone in Gulf: Tile Drainage Directly Related to Nitrate Loss” online @ http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/09/100927122225.htm, loghry]

Sep. 27, 2010 — Tile drainage in the Mississippi Basin is one of the great advances of the 19th and 20th centuries, allowing highly productive agriculture in what was once land too wet to farm. In fact, installation of new tile systems continues every year, because it leads to increased crop yields. But a recent study shows that the most heavily tile-drained areas of North America are also the largest contributing source of nitrate to the Gulf of Mexico, leading to seasonal hypoxia. In the summer of 2010 this dead zone in the Gulf spanned over 7,000 square miles. Scientists from the U of I and Cornell University compiled information on each county in the Mississippi River basin including crop acreage and yields, fertilizer inputs, atmospheric deposition, number of people, and livestock to calculate all nitrogen inputs and outputs from 1997 to 2006. For 153 watersheds in the basin, they also used measurements of nitrate concentration and flow in streams, which allowed them to develop a statistical model that explained 83 percent of the variation in springtime nitrate flow in the monitored streams. The greatest nitrate loss to streams corresponded to the highly productive, tile-drained cornbelt from southwest Minnesota across Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. This area of the basin has extensive row cropping of fertilized corn and soybeans, a flat landscape with tile drainage, and channelized ditches and streams to facilitate drainage. "Farmers are not to blame," said University of Illinois researcher Mark David. "They are using the same amount of nitrogen as they were 30 years ago and getting much higher corn yields, but we have created a very leaky agricultural system. This allows nitrate to move quickly from fields into ditches and on to the Gulf of Mexico. We need policies that reward farmers to help correct the problem." David is a biogeochemist who has been studying the

issue since 1993. "We've had data from smaller watersheds for some time, but this new study includes data from the entire Mississippi Basin. It shows clearly where across the entire basin the sources of nitrate are. "A lot of people just want to blame fertilizer, but it's not that simple," David said. "It's fertilizer on intensive corn and soybean agricultural rotations in heavily tile-drained areas. There is also an additional source of nitrogen from sewage effluent from people, although that is a small contribution. It's all of these factors together."

DEAD ZONES ANSWERS – SOLVENCY

No Solvency – more than 400 dead zonesABC ’10 (Australian Broadcasting Corporation on November 30, 2010. Found at http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/story/2010/11/30/mass-extinction-dead-zone.html) GHScientists fear the planet is on the brink of another mass extinction as ocean dead zones continue to grow in size and number.¶

More than 400 ocean dead zones — areas so low in oxygen that sea life cannot survive — have been reported by

oceanographers around the world between 2000 and 2008.¶ That is compared with 300 in the 1990s and 120 in the 1980s.¶ Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a professor at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies (CoECRS) and the University of Queensland in Australia, says there is growing evidence that declining oxygen levels in the ocean have played a major role in at least four of the planet's five mass extinctions.¶

GMO’s destroying biodiversity in the squoBello 9 (Walden, “A Critique of Orthodox Perspectives,” All Africa, Opinions, http://allafrica.com/stories/200906260740.html, AD: 6/30/09)

Proponents of GMOs have not been able to alleviate worries that transgenic foods have the potential for creating unexpected reactions in humans unless these foods, which have never been seen before and thus not selected for human consumption by eons of evolution, are tested rigorously in accordance with the universally recognised precautionary

principle. Neither have they been able to allay worries that non-target populations might be negatively affected by genetic modification aimed at specific pests, as in the case of Bt corn's impact on the monarch butterfly.

Nor have they dispelled the very real threat of loss of biodiversity posed by GMOs. The risks are hardly

trifling, as noted by one account: The effects of transgenic crops on biodiversity far extend the concerns already raised by monocropping under the Green Revolution . Not only is diversity decreased through the physical loss of species, but because of its 'live' aspect, it has the potential to contaminate, and potentially to dominate, other

strains of the same species. While this may be a limited concern with respect to the contamination of another commercial crop, it is significantly more worrisome when it could contaminate and eradicate generations of evolution of diverse and subtly differentiated strains of a single crop, such as the recently discovered transgenic contamination of landraces of indigenous corn in Mexico.[3]

Population growth and pollution causes of Gulf of Mexico dead zones—they don’t solve:Tizon, 2004 staff, Los Angeles Times, 5/6/2004; Lexis Pollution brought on by rapid population growth and development has caused oxygen levels in the water to drop , rendering one large section of the canal a "dead zone."¶ The scene "is pretty frightening," said Ehrlich, 56. The growing dead zone threatens not just sea life -- Hood Canal has one of the richest shellfish beds in Puget Sound -- but the entire ecosystem, a panoply of birds and mammals, forests, and a vast network of salmon-rich rivers and streams. Also at stake is the canal's image as a pristine outpost, the last natural barrier protecting the Olympic Peninsula from the plagues of urban sprawl. The canal makes up the peninsula's still-wild eastern edge, a watery shield against the westward push of people and machines. Gov. Gary Locke warned recently that the canal could turn into a "dead sea." If that happened, Washington would lose "one of its great jewels," said state fishery biologist Duane Fagergren. The state also could see the effluence of sprawl trickle into the peninsula, one of

the last great unspoiled areas in the West, he said. Dead zones are created by large concentrations of people and the pollution they generate. Researchers have identified dead zones in Los Angeles Harbor, Chesapeake Bay and the Gulf of Mexico .

DEAD ZONES ANSWERS – IMPACTS

Impact is empirically denied – years of species loss with no impactABC News 9 (“Biodiversity Crashing Australia – Wide,” ABC News Worldwide, http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/10/2594884.htm, AD: 6/30/09) AN

Australia has the worst record for mammal extinctions and near-extinctions of any developed nation in the world. And according to the latest national audit of Australian biodiversity, the nation is still losing plant and animal species on a continental scale. The Australian Terrestrial Biodiversity Assessment 2008 has been finished for nine months, but is yet to be officially released. Environment minister Peter Garrett's office says it is out for peer review, but forest ecologist David Lindenmayer has told Radio National Breakfast that government attempts to turn back the tide of species losses are not working. " Biodiversity is not doing well in Australia, and it's continued to do very badly for quite some time," he said. " We are seeing massive crashes of mammal populations in northern Australia now , and we're not seeing those in southern Australia because essentially mammals have gone from huge areas of woodlands, and we are starting to see the bird populations crash . " According to Mr Lindenmayer, not even 10 per cent of mammal population numbers that existed in northern Australia 10 to 15 years ago are left. In Victoria there are huge crashes in the number of birds. The Government has implemented a national biodiversity conservation strategy to try to reverse the trend.

No Impact - Corporations innovation solves BioD lossThome 9 (Wolfgang H., Tourism reporter, “Kafred Offers New Forest and Community Experience,” East Africa Tourism Report, eTurbo News, http://www.eturbonews.com/10025/wolfgangs-east-africa-tourism-report, AD: 6/30/09)

Former general manager of Uganda Heritage Trails, John Tinka, has now reappeared in the Fort Portal, Kibale area working at the Kibale

Association for Rural and Environmental Development, in short KAFRED. The community-based association has amongst its objectives, the

aim to conserve biodiversity at the community level, promote eco-friendly tourism practices, and assist the local community to engage in sustainable business ventures. The nearby Bigodi Wetland Sanctuary is

the first manifestation of KAFRED’s community engagement and on offer are guided nature walks taking anywhere between a few hours to a full day and an interpretive nature and village walks where the daily life of a rural African community unfolds in front of visitor’s eyes. Traditional home-cooked meals, using fresh local ingredients, are also available for visitors, as are dance and drama sessions performed by local artists – this requires prior booking, however. The local women’s groups produce curio items and handicrafts for purchase by visitors, bringing much-needed cash into the villages, while some families are available to open their homes and offer tourists a home stay. The Tinka family is at the forefront of this trend, of course, knowing intimately well what is expected by tourist visitors from his previous work in creating the Buganda Heritage Trail in Central Uganda.

Ecosystems are resilient:Bruce Tonn, 11/1/2007 (http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-33265107_ITM)

Theoretically, pursuing this goal could also be counter-productive in the long run. Presumably, through the process of evolution, collections of species evolve to create even more resilient ecosystems. Preventing evolution through maintenance of the status quo, then, would restrict earth-life's ability to adapt to new conditions and situations. Given that it is certain that conditions on earth will change--for instance, we know that the continents will continue to drift and alter ocean currents, which, in turn, could lead to devastating global climate change--preventing the evolution in the composition of the totality of earth-life could actually lower the probability that earth-life will be able to survive into the distant future under normal circumstances. Thus, futures sustainability requires the maintenance of functioning bioregions, not the biological status quo.

DEAD ZONES ANSWERS -- IMPACTS

All ecosystems not critical to biodiversity:Bruce Tonn, 11/1/2007 (http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-33265107_ITM)

It should be clear, though, that protecting biodiversity does not mean that it is necessary that the status quo of all ecosystems on earth be maintained [13]. Taken literally, that is an impossible goal because there will always be fluctuations in species populations if only due to annual changes in weather and precipitation .

Re-speciation will rapidly fill in the vacuumMcKinney 98Michael L. McKinney, 1998, Biodiversity Dynamics : Niche Preemption and Saturation in Diversity Equilibria, Biodiversity Dynamics: Turnover of Populations, Taxa, and Communities, Chapter 1, Michael L. McKinney and James A. Drake, eds. http://www.earthscape.org/r3/mckinney/mckinney01.html

A key prediction of the niche preemption model is that, as incumbent occupants of niches are not dislodged by competition, then extinction of the incumbents by disturbances provides the main opportunity for replacement. As Roy (1996) discusses (and shows evidence for), speciation-rate disparities tend to drive changes in diversity composition during both background and mass extinctions. Mass extinctions provide widespread opportunities to occupy many ecological niches and so accelerate incumbent replacement (Patzkowsky 1995; Roy 1996).

Impact is empirically denied – years of species loss with no impactABC News 9 (“Biodiversity Crashing Australia – Wide,” ABC News Worldwide, http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/10/2594884.htm, AD: 6/30/09) AN

Australia has the worst record for mammal extinctions and near-extinctions of any developed nation in the world. And according to the latest national audit of Australian biodiversity, the nation is still losing plant and animal species on a continental scale. The Australian Terrestrial Biodiversity Assessment 2008 has been finished for nine months, but is yet to be officially released. Environment minister Peter Garrett's office says it is out for peer review, but forest ecologist David Lindenmayer has told Radio National Breakfast that government attempts to turn back the tide of species losses are not working. " Biodiversity is not doing well in Australia, and it's continued to do very badly for quite some time," he said. " We are seeing massive crashes of mammal populations in northern Australia now , and we're not seeing those in southern Australia because essentially mammals have gone from huge areas of woodlands, and we are starting to see the bird populations crash . " According to Mr Lindenmayer, not even 10 per cent of mammal population numbers that existed in northern Australia 10 to 15 years ago are left. In Victoria there are huge crashes in the number of birds. The Government has implemented a national biodiversity conservation strategy to try to reverse the trend.

DEAD ZONES ANSWERS – IMPACTS

No Impact - Corporations innovation solves BioD lossThome 9 (Wolfgang H., Tourism reporter, “Kafred Offers New Forest and Community Experience,” East Africa Tourism Report, eTurbo News, http://www.eturbonews.com/10025/wolfgangs-east-africa-tourism-report, AD: 6/30/09)

Former general manager of Uganda Heritage Trails, John Tinka, has now reappeared in the Fort Portal, Kibale area working at the Kibale

Association for Rural and Environmental Development, in short KAFRED. The community-based association has amongst its objectives, the

aim to conserve biodiversity at the community level, promote eco-friendly tourism practices, and assist the local community to engage in sustainable business ventures. The nearby Bigodi Wetland Sanctuary is

the first manifestation of KAFRED’s community engagement and on offer are guided nature walks taking anywhere between a few hours to a full day and an interpretive nature and village walks where the daily life of a rural African community unfolds in front of visitor’s eyes. Traditional home-cooked meals, using fresh local ingredients, are also available for visitors, as are dance and drama sessions performed by local artists – this requires prior booking, however. The local women’s groups produce curio items and handicrafts for purchase by visitors, bringing much-needed cash into the villages, while some families are available to open their homes and offer tourists a home stay. The Tinka family is at the forefront of this trend, of course, knowing intimately well what is expected by tourist visitors from his previous work in creating the Buganda Heritage Trail in Central Uganda.

Turn: Dead zones support biodiversity National Academy of Sciences, 2008, “In the Light of Evolution, Volume II: Biodiversity and Extinction,” http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12501&page=5In the Light of Evolution: Volume II—Biodiversity and Extinction (Fig. 1.1) (Dayton et al., 1995; Auster, 1998; NRC, 2002).The magnitude of effects increases with the frequency and geographic scale of trawling. The most striking data are from New England and the Gulf of Mexico (NRC, 2002), although the situation is almost certainly comparable on continental shelves around the world (Dayton et al., 1995). In New England, the total area fished (TAF) by trawling is 138,000 km2, and 56% of the sample areas are fished more than once a year, so that the equivalent of 115% of the TAF is fished every year. In the Gulf of Mexico, the TAF is 270,000 km2, 57% of the sample areas are fished more than once a year, and trawls sweep 255% of the TAF each year. Thus, trawling has drastically degraded most of the sea floor in these huge regions, and with multiple trawling episodes per year at favored sites, there is obviously no opportunity for ecosystem recovery. Eutrophication, Dead Zones, and the Rise of Slime Nutrient runoff is naturally greatest, and eutrophication, hypoxia, and toxic blooms are most intense, in estuaries and coastal seas like the Adriatic and Baltic seas and Chesapeake and San Francisco bays (Diaz, 2001; Jackson, 2001; Jackson et al., 2001; Lötze et al., 2006). However, major river systems like the Amazon, Yangtze, and Mississippi–Missouri also discharge vast amounts of nutrients, sediments, and organic matter into relatively small areas of open coast and surrounding continental shelves. The enormous increase in the use of chemical fertilizers in the drainage basins of these great rivers over the past 50 years (Tilman et al., 2002), coupled with the virtual elimination of suspension feeding oysters and wetlands along their delta margins, has resulted in the formation of vast eutrophic and hypoxic regions comparable with the worst conditions in estuaries (Diaz, 2001). The iconic American example is the hypoxic “dead zone” that extends some 500 km west of the Mississippi delta. The area of the hypoxic zone has doubled in the past 20 years to ≈20,000 km2, and the rate of increase in area is a linear function of nitrogen loading from the Mississippi drainage (Fig. 1.2) (Rabalais et al., 2007; Turner et al., 2008). Analyses of the geochemistry and mineralogy of cores shows that hypoxic conditions were uncommon before the 1950s, strongly supporting the hypothesis that their formation is due to comparatively recent human impacts and is not a natural phenomenon. The dead zone expands during the summer, when hypoxia extends from shallow depths to the sea floor, and there is mass mortality of most animals that cannot swim away, including major fisheries species like shrimp. The dead zone is hardly dead, however, but supports an extraordinary biomass of diverse microbes and jellyfish that may constitute the only surviving commercial fishery.

A2: PEAK PHOSPHORUS

THEIR EVIDENCE ONLY ASSUMES PROVEN RESERVES – ACTUAL WORLD RESOURCES OF PHOSPHATE ROCK WILL SUPPLY PHOSPHORUS FOR MORE THAN 1,500 YEARSTim Worstall (Contributor to Forbes) 6/27/2013[“There Is No Phosphorus Shortage: Stop Designing Foolish Systems To Recycle It” online @ http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/06/27/there-is-no-phosphorus-shortage-stop-designing-damn-fool-systems-to-recycle-it/, loghry]

No, just no. Phosphorus (or phosphorous to us Brits) is not going to run out in 50 or 100 years. This is the most absurd

misunderstanding of what the mining industry actually says about these things. Here’s the numbers on phosphorus from the USGS.

If you look at page two you will see that annual production is 210,000 and mineral reserves are 67,000,000, (both in

thousands of tonnes) divide one into the other and you get 300 odd years of reserves left. Quite how anyone gets that down to 50-100 years I’m not quite sure. But if you then take that number and claim that that is all there is that we can use then you are either ignorant or malicious. Because mineral reserves are not, not in any way or manner, all of a mineral that is available for us to use. Reserves are only the minerals we have marked out, drilled, tested, looked at, weighed and proven that we can in fact mine them at current prices, with current technology, and still make a profit. And that “proven” costs a great deal of money to

do which is why, if we’ve got enough reserves to be going on with, we don’t bother to do the proving of any more. If you want to talk about

the actual amount that’s available for us to use, using current technology and current knowledge, then you need to

look at another number: mineral resources. From that same page two of the USGS report: World resources of phosphate rock are more than 300 billion tons We have something like a 1,500 years supply there. And no, even that’s not all that is available to us. That’s just the amount of this type of rock, that we already know about, that is out there.

PRODUCTION HAS ALREADY PEAKEDChris Rhodes (Sussex University, B.Sc and D.Phil) 4/6/2008[“Could Peak Phosphate be Algal Diesel's Achilles' Heel?” online @ http://ergobalance.blogspot.com/2008/04/peak-phosphate-algal-diesels-achilles.html, loghry]

The depletion of world phosphate reserves will impact on the production of biofuels, including the potential wide-scale generation of diesel from algae. The world population has risen to its present number of 6.7 billion in consequence of cheap fertilizers, pesticides and energy sources, particularly oil. Almost all modern farming has been engineered to depend on phosphate fertilizers, and those made

from natural gas, e.g. ammonium nitrate, and on oil to run tractors etc. and to distribute the final produce. Worldwide production of phosphate has now peaked (in the US the peak came in the late 1980's), which lends fears as to how much food the world will be able to grow in the future, against a rising number of mouths to feed [1]. Consensus of analytical opinion is that we are close to the peak in world oil production too.

A2: PEAK PHOSPHORUS

RISING POPULATION GROWTH, MEAT/DAIRY CONSUMPTION, & ENERGY PRICES ALL CAUSE FERTILIZER OVERCONSUMPTIONANDREW LEONARD (staff) 2/7/2008[“The upside to peak fertilizer” online @ http://www.salon.com/2008/02/07/peak_fertilizer/, loghry]

Opponents of biofuels have been quick to point the finger at the stampede to divert farming land to energy crops as another

reason explaining the fertilizer market's failure to keep up with global demand. But that's only one factor. Population growth and the explosion of meat and dairy consumption in the rising middle classes of the developing world are also contributing to the worldwide agricultural boom. Even without rising energy prices, the surging demand for fertilizer would be overwhelming suppliers.

ALTERNATE CAUSALITY--CHINAThe Nikkei Weekly (Japan), November 17, 2K8[“Phosphorus-extraction tech puts sludge to use”]

Import costs of phosphate ore, which Japan depends on for use in fertilizer, are surging. But in a timely move, Ebara Corp. plans to

commercialize its new technologies for extracting phosphorus from sewage sludge. The international supply of phosphate rock has grown tighter because of increased Chinese export tariffs on the material and a global increase in the production of food, which has boosted fertilizer use.

Phosphorus will not run out soonWorstall 13 (Tim, writer for Forbes, 06/27/13, There Is No Phosphorus Shortage: Stop Designing Foolish Systems To Recycle It, Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/06/27/there-is-no-phosphorus-shortage-stop-designing-damn-fool-systems-to-recycle-it/) KL

No, just no. Phosphorus (or phosphorous to us Brits) is not going to run out in 50 or 100 years . This

is the most absurd misunderstanding of what the mining industry actually says about these things. Here’s the

numbers on phosphorus from the USGS. If you look at page two you will see that annual production is

210,000 and mineral reserves are 67,000,000, (both in thousands of tonnes) divide one into

the other and you get 300 odd years of reserves left. Quite how anyone gets that down to 50-100

years I’m not quite sure.¶ But if you then take that number and claim that that is all there is that we can use then

you are either ignorant or malicious. Because mineral reserves are not, not in any way or manner, all of a mineral

that is available for us to use. Reserves are only the minerals we have marked out, drilled, tested, looked at,

weighed and proven that we can in fact mine them at current prices, with current technology, and still make a

profit. And that “proven” costs a great deal of money to do which is why, if we’ve got enough reserves to be going

on with, we don’t bother to do the proving of any more.¶ If you want to talk about the actual amount that’s

available for us to use, using current technology and current knowledge, then you need to look at another number:

mineral resources. From that same page two of the USGS report:¶ World resources of phosphate rock

are more than 300 billion tons¶ We have something like a 1,500 years supply there.

A2: PEAK PHOSPHORUS

Urine key to conserving phosphorus

Peppers 13 (Margot, writer for the Mailonline newspaper, 06/26/13, Could American households soon be recycling their URINE? How

depleting nutrient used in toothpaste and fertilizer can be extracted from our toilets, Mailonline, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-

2348952/Could-American-households-soon-recycling-URINE-How-depleting-nutrient-used-toothpaste-fertilizer-extracted-toilets.html) KL

Since estimates suggest that phosphorous - which occurs as phosphate rocks and is mined

for crop fertilizer - could be exhausted in the next 50 to 100 years ,. urine recycling may be

the key to conserving the non-renewable resource in the future.¶ Phosphorus, an element we

take into our bodies in the form of phosphates from foods like bran, cheese and nuts , is

essential for human health, especially for bones and teeth. ¶ According to Healthaliciousness.com, a

phosphorus deficiency can lead to lost appetite, anemia, muscle pain, rickets and a weakened immune system.¶ But with the

extensive mining of phosphate rocks for crop fertilizer, it risks becoming scarce in the near future - an issue the scientists at the

University of Florida sought to address in their research

Urine recycling can solve phosphorus shortageMihelcic, Fry, and Shaw 11 (James, Ph.D in Civil Engineering, Lauren, doctoral candidate in environmental engineering, R Shaw, Aug 2011, Global potential of phosphorus recovery from human urine and feces, US National Library of Medicine/ National Institutes of Health, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21429554) KL

This study geospatially quantifies the mass of an essential fertilizer element, phosphorus, available from human urine and feces,

globally, regionally, and by specific country. The analysis is performed over two population scenarios (2009 and 2050). This

important material flow is related to the presence of improved sanitation facilities and also considers the global trend of urbanization.

Results show that in 2009 the phosphorus available from urine is approximately 1.68

million metric tons (with similar mass available from feces). If collected, the phosphorus

available from urine and feces could account for 22% of the total global phosphorus demand. In

2050 the available phosphorus from urine that is associated with population increases only

will increase to 2.16 million metric tons (with similar mass available from feces). The

available phosphorus from urine and feces produced in urban settings is currently

approximately 0.88 million metric tons and will increase with population growth to over 1.5

million metric tons by 2050

A2: PEAK PHOSPHORUS

Phosphorus will not run out anytime soon

Cho 13 (Renee, environmental writer, 04/01/13, Phosphorus: Essential to Life- Are We Running Out, Colombia Univeristy, http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2013/04/01/phosphorus-essential-to-life-are-we-running-out/) KL

In fact, phosphorus is a renewable resource and there is plenty of it left on earth. Animals and humans excrete almost 100 percent of the

phosphorus they consume in food. In the past, as part of a natural cycle, the phosphorus in manure and waste was returned to the soil to aid in

crop production. Today phosphorus is an essential component of commercial fertilizer. Because industrial agriculture moves food around the

world for processing and consumption, disrupting the natural cycle that returned phosphorus to the soil via the decomposition of plants, in many

areas fertilizer must now be continually applied to enrich the soil’s nutrients.¶ Most of the phosphorus used in fertilizer comes from phosphate rock , a finite resource formed over millions of years in the earth’s crust . Ninety percent of the world’s mined phosphate rock is used in agriculture and food production, mostly as fertilizer , less as animal feed and food additives. When experts debate peak phosphorus, what they are usually debating is how long the phosphate rock reserves, i.e. the resources that can economically be extracted, will hold out.¶ Pedro Sanchez , director of the Agriculture and Food Security Center at the Earth Institute, does not believe there is a shortage of phosphorus . “In my long 50-year career, “ he said. “Once every decade, people say we are going to run out of phosphorus. Each time this is disproven. All the most reliable estimates show that we have enough phosphate rock resources to last between 300 and 400 more years.” ¶ In 2010, the International Fertilizer Development Center determined that phosphate rock reserves would last for several centuries . In 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey revised its estimates of phosphate rock reserves from the previous 17.63 billion tons to 71.65 billion tons in accordance with IFDC’s estimates.

SPACE GOOD

THE PLANET IS POST BRINK -- EXTINCTION BY 2030 WITHOUT SPACETed Thornhill (staff) 5/16/2012["WWF Living Planet Report Warns That By 2030 Two Earths Will Be Needed To Sustain Our Lifestyles" online @ http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/05/16/wwf-warns-that-we-will-need-two-earths-by-2030_n_1520449.html, loghry]

Humans will need two Earths to support our lifestyles by 2030 because we are draining the world’s resources so quickly, a new report has warned. Produced by the World Wildlife Fund, the Zoological Society of London, the Global Footprint Network

and the European Space Agency, the 2012 Living Planet Report measures humans’ ecological footprint on the planet.

At the moment, the picture is bleak, according to Jim Leape, Director General of WWF International, with resources being drained 50 per cent faster than they can be replenished. He said: “We’re all familiar with the stories of what we’re doing to Planet Earth, the ways in which we’re changing the climate, depleting the world’s fisheries, destroying the world’s forests. “The Living Planet report tells us the cumulative pressure we’re putting on the Earth. “The report

measures the health of nature. It looks at what’s happening to 2,600 different species, and it tells us that over the past 30 years we’ve seen a 30 per cent decline in the world’s biodiversity – but more than double in the tropics. “The report tells us that

we’re already using the earth’s resources 50 per cent faster than it can be replenished, and that, if we don’t change

our ways, by 2030 we will need two planets to support us.”

EXTINCTION BY 2030 WITHOUT SPACEAlasdair Wilkins (io9 staff) 10/14/2010[“Humanity will need two Earths to sustain itself in just twenty years” online @ http://io9.com/5664078/humanity-will-need-two-earths-to-sustain-itself-in-just-twenty-years, loghry]

At humanity's present rate of consumption, by 2030 we'll need the resources of two Earths just to survive long-term. There are really two options: start building another Earth, or drastically change our lifestyles. Which one is supposed to be easier?

According to the latest "Living Planet" report from the World Wildlife Fund, Earth's 6.8 billion people are already using 1.5 times our planet's sustainable resources. That means we're already creating 1.5 times the amount of carbon dioxide the planet can reabsorb, and our consumption of resources outstrips the planet's ability to replenish itself.

And the problem will only worsen as the population increases - the UN's relatively modest projections says there will be 8.3 billion people by 2030 - not to mention climate change and increased consumption as poorer regions continue to industrialize. Even

reasonably optimistic estimates for those three factors suggest that, by 2030, humans will be consuming enough sustainable resources and producing enough carbon dioxide waste for two entire Earths. The

problem only gets worse the more developed a country is. If the entire world had the consumption habits of the United States, we would need 4.5 Earths to sustain ourselves. But this isn't just a consumption problem - in the developing world, particularly in tropical regions, the biggest issue is the loss of biodiversity, which has dropped 30% worldwide since 1970 and a whopping 60% in the poorer tropical regions.

SPACE BAD – BACKCONTAMINATION

BACK CONTAMINATION RISKS THE ENTIRE BIOSPHEREJoseph A. Angelo Jr. (retired U.S. Air Force officer (lieutenant colonel), currently a consulting futurist and technical writer, Ph.D. in

nuclear engineering from the University of Arizona) 2006[Encyclopedia of Space and Astronomy, p. 231, loghry]

In general, the contamination of one world by life-forms, especially microorganisms, from another world. Using the Earth and its biosphere as a reference, this planetary contamination process is called forward contamination if an extraterrestrial sample or the alien world itself is contaminated by contact with terrestrial organisms, and back contamination if alien organisms are released into the Earth’s biosphere. An alien species will usually not survive when introduced into a new ecological system, because it is unable to compete with native species that are better

adapted to the environment. Once in a while, however, alien species actually thrive because the new environment is very suitable, and indigenous life-forms are unable to successfully defend themselves against these alien invaders. When this “war of biological worlds” occurs, the result might very well be a permanent disruption of the host ecosphere, with severe biological, environmental, and possibly economic consequences. Of course, the introduction of an alien species into an ecosystem is not always undesirable. Many European and Asian vegetables and fruits, for example, have been successfully and profitably introduced into the

North American environment. However, any time a new organism is released in an existing ecosystem, a finite amount of risk is also introduced. Frequently, alien organisms that destroy resident species are microbiological life-forms. Such microorganisms may have been nonfatal in their native habitat, but once released in the new ecosystem, they become unrelenting killers of native life-forms that are not resistant to them. In past centuries on Earth entire human societies fell victim to alien organisms against which they were defenseless, as, for example, was the case

with the rapid spread of diseases that were transmitted to native Polynesians and American Indians by European explorers. But an alien organism does not have to directly infect humans to be devastating. Who can easily ignore the consequences of the potato blight fungus that swept through Europe and the British Isles in the 19th

century, causing a million people to starve to death in Ireland alone? In the space age it is obviously of extreme importance to recognize the potential hazard of extraterrestrial contamination (forward or back). Before any species is intentionally introduced into another planet’s environment, we must carefully determine not only whether the organism is pathogenic (disease-causing) to any indigenous species but also whether the new organism will be able to force out native species— with destructive effects on the original ecosystem. The introduction of rabbits into the Australian continent is a classic terrestrial example of a nonpathogenic life form creating immense problems when introduced into a new ecosystem. The rabbit population in Australia simply exploded in size because of their high reproduction rate, which was essentially unchecked by native predators.

YES E.T.

DRAKE EQUATION PROVES 1 MILLION TO 10,000 ALIEN CIVILIZATIONS EXISTClara Moskowitz (Space.com sr. writer) 8/16/2010[“Proof of Aliens Could Come Within 25 Years, Scientist Says” @ http://www.space.com/searchforlife/alien-life-soon-seticon-100816.html, loghry]

SANTA CLARA, Calif. – Proof of extraterrestrial intelligence could come within 25 years, an astronomer who works on the search said Sunday. "I actually think the chances that we'll find ET are pretty good," said Seth Shostak, senior astronomer at the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute in Mountain View, Calif., here at the SETI con convention. "Young people in the audience, I think there's a really good chance you're going to see this happen." Shostak bases this estimation on the Drake Equation, a formula conceived by SETI pioneer Frank Drake to calculate the number (N) of alien civilizations with whom we might be able to communicate. That equation takes into account a variety of factors, including the rate of star formation in the galaxy, the fraction of stars that have planets, the fraction of planets that are habitable, the percent of those that actually develop life, the percent of those that develop intelligent life, the fraction of civilizations that have a technology that can broadcast their presence into space, and the length of time those signals would be broadcasted. Reliable figures for many of those factors are not known, but some of the leaders in the field of SETI have put together their best guesses. Late great astronomer Carl Sagan, another SETI pioneer, estimated that the Drake Equation amounted to N = 1 million. Scientist and science fiction writer Isaac Asimov calculated 670,000. Drake himself estimates a more conservative 10,000. But even if that lower value turns out to be correct, at the rate they're going, it wouldn't take scientists too long to discover an alien signal, Shostak said. "This range, from Sagan's million down to 10,000 – that's the range of estimates from people who have started and worked on SETI," said Shostak. "These people may know what they're talking about. If they do, then the point is we trip across somebody in the next several dozen or two dozen years." The SETI quest is set to take a leap forward when the Allen Telescope Array, a network of radio dishes under construction in northern California, is fully operational. By 2015, the array should be able to scan hundreds of thousands of stars for signs of extraterrestrial intelligence, Shostak said.

NO E.T.

intelligent life doesn’t exist elsewhere, earth is a unique setting that allowed a very unique sequencing of evolution. Michael A.G. Michaud 2007 Contact with Alien Civilixations: Our hopes and Fears about Encountering Extraterrestrials” (Author of over one hundred published works, Michael Michaud was a U.S. Foreign Service officer for 32 years before turning full time to writing. )

Others strenuously disagree. Many experts in evolutionary biology contend that the evolution of intelligence elsewhere is extremely improbable, implying that the Earth may be unique in harboring sentient life. There is no central line leading steadily, in a goal-directed way, from a protozoan to man, insisted Simpson. The existence of Homo sapiens depended on a very precise sequence of causative events through some 2 billion years or more; selection has taken place through long chains of nonrepetitive circumstances. It is extremely unlikely that anything enough like us for real communication of thought exists anywhere in our accessible universe

CONSULT BRAZIL – RELATIONS UQ

DESPITE SPYING ALLEGATIONS, RELATIONS REMAIN STRONGAnthony Boadle & Helen Murphy (Reuters staff) 7/11/2013[“Latin America demands answers in wake of Edward Snowden's spying allegations” online @ http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/07/11/19410211-latin-america-demands-answers-in-wake-of-edward-snowdens-spying-allegations, loghry]

In Brazil, the United States' largest trading partner in South America, angry senators questioned a state visit that President Dilma Rousseff plans to make to Washington in October, and the potential billion-dollar purchase of U.S.-made fighter jets that Brazil has been considering. One senator said Brazil should offer Snowden asylum for providing information of vital importance to the country's national security. Another senator said Snowden should get Brazilian citizenship. Facing tough questions in a Senate hearing, Brazilian Foreign Minister Antonio Patriota said Rousseff's visit to Washington was not being reconsidered.

NO RELATIONS BREAK DUE TO SPYING – TIES REMAIN STRONGMARCO SIBAJA (staff) 7/10/2013[“Brazil lawmaker: US spying won't hurt relations” online @ http://www.boston.com/news/world/latin-america/2013/07/10/brazil-lawmaker-spying-won-hurt-relations/OK7bZK9PeTCL5SGEY7JF4M/story.html, loghry]

BRASILIA, Brazil (AP) — Disclosures alleging that the United States has collected data on billions of telephone and email conversations in Latin America’s biggest country will not affect Brazil-U.S. relations, the head of Brazil’s joint congressional committee on intelligence said Wednesday. Congressman Nelson Pellegrino told foreign correspondents in Brasilia that despite Brazil’s strong repudiation of the U.S. information gathering activities in Brazil ‘‘the good relations we have with the United States will not be interrupted.’’ ‘‘We have sent Washington a clear message that we are interested in maintaining good relations, but that we will not accept these kinds of practices,’’ he said. ‘‘We cannot accept that a country spies another, on its citizens, its companies and its authorities.’’

OIL ANSWERS

Oil dependency good: gives us allies

Fisher 10 (Max, former writer/ editor for The Atlantic, 04/02/10, The Upside of Depending on Foreign Oil, The Atlantic,

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2010/04/the-upside-of-depending-on-foreign-oil/38380/) KL

The top ten   oil exporters   to the U.S ., which account for   half   of all U.S. consumption , read

like a State Department tourism warning list: Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq, Angola,

Russia, Colombia, and Brazil. (To be fair, Canada has long been our number one oil source, and Mexico

alternates with Saudi Arabia for the number two spot.) But keep in mind that most of these countries

need our money a lot more then we need their oil. If Saudi Arabia and the U.S. suddenly

ended our trade tomorrow, for example, the U.S. and global economies would not suffer

nearly as much as Saudi Arabia's. The Saudis understand this and so want to keep U.S.

and Saudi interests aligned.¶ As a result, buying Saudi oil gets us a lot more than just

energy. It gets us a dedicated ally that wields unparalleled influence in a part of the world

where we desperately need it: the Middle East. The Saudi royal family has put their wily

intelligence service at our disposal and allowed sprawling U.S. military bases onto their

soil. In 1992, the Saudis even exiled one of their own on America's behalf: A prominent,

wealthy, and popular humanitarian and freedom fighter named Osama bin Laden. Saudi

royalty risked a violent backlash by expelling bin Laden to Sudan, but U.S. officials had demanded his ouster.

That's no small favor. It would be almost as if the United States deported Google CEO Eric Schmidt to Honduras

at the request of angry Chinese officials. The Saudis came to our aid again in 1996 when they convinced the

Sudanese regime to themselves deport bin Laden.¶ Bin Laden's anti-American terrorism did not begin until he fled

to Afghanistan, where the United States then had little influence. In the decade since, he has moved between

there and Pakistan, two countries with which the U.S. has no meaningful economic ties save foreign aid. Unlike

with Saudi Arabia, our pleas to those governments to help us rout bin Laden went largely ignored.¶ If our oil-

greased relationships with other top producing states are half as close as the U.S.-Saudi partnership, it will give

us much-needed leverage over some of this century's biggest emerging threats. In Nigeria, we can pressure

the government to peacefully contain the state's alarming increase in terrorism. For Iraq,

the economic ties with America would be an important counterbalance to Iran's religious

and political influence. As for Venezuela, no matter how antagonistic President Hugo

Chavez gets, he would be a lot worse if we didn't take close to a million barrels off his

hands every day.¶

OIL ANSWERS

U.S. oil dependence key to oil producer’s economyPowell 11 (Jim, Writer for Forbes, 11/15/11, Why 'Dependence' On Foreign Oil Is A Bogus Worry, Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/jimpowell/2011/11/15/global-oil-and-gas-markets-our-best-energy-security/) KL

Keep in mind that major oil producers have strong incentives to sell their oil. In most cases, it

dominates their economies and generates a substantial percentage of government revenues.

Moreover, many of these countries live beyond their means. They have spent huge sums on weapons, wars,

palaces, religious police and money-losing nationalized industries. Generally the major oil producers

have failed to diversify their revenue sources by providing an attractive business climate

where different industries could develop. ¶ Saudi Arabia’s oil revenues , for instance, are

almost 40 percent of their GDP. Their expenditures are about 15 percent more than their

total revenues. Kuwait’s oil revenues are 75 percent of their GDP. About 48 percent of

Qatar’s government revenue comes from oil exports. Oil is 84 percent of Oman’s

government revenue and 37 percent of Norway’s. ¶ Oil reportedly accounts for about 80

percent of Iran’s export earnings and 50 percent of government revenues. Nigeria’s

government budget is usually in the red, and in recent years its oil revenues have been

running between 63 percent and 81 percent of total revenues . Oil represents 57 percent of

Kazakhstan’s exports and 46 percent of government revenue . Oil generates about two-

thirds of Russia’s revenue from exports . ¶ With a growing global market, people who want to buy oil can

be confident of finding sellers who need cash. Deals are done when the price is right. Although Israel, which

imports about 99 percent of its oil, doesn’t seem to have done much business lately with its hostile neighbors, over

the years Israel reportedly has bought oil from Angola, Colombia, Egypt, Mexico and Norway, among other

producers. These days, Israel is said to be obtaining oil from Russia and former Soviet republics in central Asia.

Now come reports that Israel might be able to extract huge amounts of oil from its own oil shale deposits – a

Texas oilman is working on the project.

FOOD PRICES ANSWERS

Corn prices do not move in line with ethanol demandKelly and Hornblower 13 (Kel, Growmark Manager of Economic Research, Scott, Associate Analyst of Growmark, 01/04/13, 4 Reasons Why Ethanol Doesn’t Drive Corn Prices- A Tale of Two Forces, http://www.growmark.com/sites/Files/Documents/4ReasonsWhyEthanolDoesntDriveCornPrices.pdf) KL

The ethanol industry has actually been buying corn since the early 1980s. But as Figure 2 shows, movements in ethanol use are not correlated with movements in the price of corn —sometimes prices move in the same direction as physical ethanol demand, sometimes they do not. For example, ethanol demand increased 303% between 1995 and 2005, while prices fell by 38% . By 2006, ethanol demand represented over 19% of all corn use (compared to 36% in 2012), but prices were no higher than 10 years prior . Similarly, ethanol demand for corn increased 24% between 2008 and 2009, while corn prices fell 20% ( from the intra- year high to intra-year low, corn prices plummeted by a whopping 60 %!). Had ethanol been a dominant corn price driver, the continued strong ethanol demand would have prevented a sell-off in the corn markets, and would have instead driven corn prices higher due to the increased corn demand. Again, the relationship between corn price and ethanol demand appears to suggest that there are other influences on corn prices that are stronger than ethanol demand alone.

Corn ethanol decreases competition in marketKelly and Hornblower 13 (Kel, Growmark Manager of Economic Research, Scott, Associate Analyst of Growmark, 01/04/13, 4 Reasons Why Ethanol Doesn’t Drive Corn Prices- A Tale of Two Forces, http://www.growmark.com/sites/Files/Documents/4ReasonsWhyEthanolDoesntDriveCornPrices.pdf) KL

Ethanol producers use part of the corn kernel and return the rest of it to the market , where it is consumed by others . This means that many traditional buyers of corn are no longer competing with ethanol buyers in the primary market (i.e., buying corn first-hand from elevators). Instead , they can wait and obtain the corn fermentation residual from ethanol producers at lower prices in the secondary market. As a result, non- ethanol corn demand is reduced, causing less competition in the corn market. Ethanol Producer Magazine contributor Mike Bryan states: More than one-third of the corn used in the production of biofuels is put back into the market as the high protein feed supplement distillers grains…so the 40 percent figure that is bandied about [that ethanol producers use 40% of the corn crop] is, in reality, significantly lower, with some projections showing the actual amount of corn value removed from the market is less than 20 percent.1 As the quote explains, ethanol producers’ purchases obviate the need for traditional buyers to compete in the primary market, since the ethanol industry returns a significant portion of the corn it consumes back into the secondary market. Granted, this quote could be seen as somewhat biased, given its publisher, but the essence of the statement is factual. Ethanol producers are only extracting the sugars from the corn, leaving the leftovers , about 33% of the processed corn , to re-enter the market for food processing and feed use. In this way, additional value can be extracted from each of the 5 billion bushels of corn processed by the ethanol industry. Feed and food consumers can obtain their corn input needs from distillers dried grains (DDGs), which are considered a byproduct of fermentation. DDGs can be fed to livestock or chemically processed to extract food grade oil and protein . This should lead to less competition in the corn market, thus reducing ethanol producers’ need to out-compete other buyers in the primary market by bidding up corn prices. With ethanol producers giving back a third of their corn purchases, their impact on the market—whatever it is—is weaker than is apparent on the surface.

FOOD PRICES ANSWERS

Corn ethanol not a major impact to rising pricesKelly and Hornblower 13 (Kel, Growmark Manager of Economic Research, Scott, Associate Analyst of Growmark, 01/04/13, 4 Reasons Why Ethanol Doesn’t Drive Corn Prices- A Tale of Two Forces, http://www.growmark.com/sites/Files/Documents/4ReasonsWhyEthanolDoesntDriveCornPrices.pdf) KL

It is large volumes of new Wall St. cash entering and exiting the market, not ethanol corn demand, which is the ¶ driving force responsible for sending corn prices on a rollercoaster ride. While it is evident that ethanol demand ¶ can indeed contribute to corn price movements, its actual magnitude necessarily renders its influence smaller ¶ than that of investor money flows. Given the concerns of possible future decreases in ethanol consumption,

we ¶ can, nevertheless, feel secure in knowing that large decreases in ethanol demand would have only a minor effect ¶ on corn prices—long-term.