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CRedcarbon reduction
Hard Choices Ahead
Lay Chairman, Norwich East Deanery, Energy Science Director:
HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
Climate Chage: The Greatest Threat to Mankind?
ADAS: 13th December 2006Keith Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
CRed
2
Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
(ppm
)
3
CRedcarbon reduction
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000T
emp
erat
ure
Ris
e (o C
)
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Tem
per
atu
re R
ise
(o C)
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Tem
per
atu
re R
ise
(o C)
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
actual
actual
actual
predicted
predicted
predictedIs Global Warming man made?
Prediction: Anthropogenic only
Not a good match between 1920 and 1970
Prediction: Natural only
good match until 1960
Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic
Generally a good match
Predictions include:
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
• Sulphates and ozone
• Solar and volcanic activity
4Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation
Source: Tim
Osborne, C
RU
Change in precipitation 1961-2001Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing Occurrence of Flood
5
(Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London)
Norwich
Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise
Norwich City would be playing water polo!
6
19792003
Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite
imagery
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
•20% reduction in 24 years
7
"Clean Coal"
Traditional Coal ~40%- coal could
supply 40 - 50% by 2020
Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration
2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS carbon trading will affect
this
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently
35% )
available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade
~ 2p + but recent trends put figure
much higher
nuclear fission (long term)
0 - 30% (France 80%) - (currently 20% and falling)
new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed
2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
potential contribution to
Electricity Supply in 2020
costs in 2020
Wholesale Electricity Prices since NETA
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
p/k
Wh
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Inst
all
ed C
ap
aci
ty (
MW
)
New Build ?
ProjectedActual
Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2017.
8
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
9
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km
But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.
10
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas
50% + available, but research needed in some areas
2.5 - 4
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.
Transport Fuels:
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?
• Compressed gas from methane from waste.
11
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas
2.5 - 4
Wave/TidalStream
100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020
4 - 8p
Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention
notcosted
Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
12
Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004
13
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
• unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our COAL fired power stations within 10 years - unlikely.
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power
• Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?
Actual Nuclear Projected
Nuclear Closures
Actual Coal with FGD
Opted Out Coal
New Nuclear ???
New Coal ???
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity (M
W)
• Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015
• New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2016
• New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2016
14
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
• we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS
• imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, AlgeriaAre we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? –
Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route
and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
15
Some Myths about Wind Energy
• What happens when the wind does not blow?.• Large Coal /Nuclear Stations trip/ have failures and these
cause a loss of power within a matter of minutes.• In terms of short term variations wind is more reliable.
•Wind Turbines kill birds.
Evidence suggesta that a few birds are killed typically 3 per installed MW per year except in a few locations. In many cases it is much less
Oldest wind farm in UK on Burgar Hill has an RSPB reserve right next to it.
Currently UK has around 1700 MW wind turbines installed perhaps 5000 birds killed a year
Estimates of 1 million killed each year by vehicles
16
Wind Turbines are Incredibly Inefficient
Efficiency: the ratio of the USEFUL work to the total energy available (or expended)
Oxford English Dictionary
Modern Wind Turbines convert 40 – 42%% of available energy in the wind
Modern Coal Fired Power Stations achieve 38%
Sizewell B achieves 32%
A car engine achieve 20 - 25% at best
Compared to many other energy devices, Wind Turbines are Very Efficient
17
Is Efficiency being confused with Capacity Factor?• a measure of how much use is made of an appliance compared to the amount
that could be achieved at rated output over a year.
• Wind Turbines have a Capacity Factor of 22% for first generation turbines in the East to 30%+ for the latest generation machines. Capacity factors are higher in the West and as much as 40% or more in places in Scotland. Even in East Anglia, capacity factors of 50% are achieved in some months.
• A capacity factor of 30% does not mean it is only working for 30% of the time. It means that it could be working at 30% of output for 100% of the time, 100% of output for 30% of time, or any combination between. The fact the turbine is working does not mean that it is at its rated output.
• Large coal and nuclear stations are off line for up to 50 days at a time – loosing equivalent output of 700 + turbines.
• A car driven 10000 miles has a capacity factor about 4%.• A washing machine used 5 times a week has a capacity factor of 3%.
18
Historic and Future Demand for Electricity
Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Ele
ctri
city
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
TW
h)
Business as usual
Energy Efficient Future ?
19
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MT
on
ne
s C
O2
Actual
Business as Usual
Energy Efficiency
The Gas Scenario
Assumes all new non-renewable generation is from gas.
Replacements for ageing plant
Additions to deal with demand changes
Assumes 10.4% renewables by 2010
25% renewables by 2025
Energy Efficiency – consumption capped at 420 TWh by 2010
But 68% growth in gas demand (compared to 2002)
Business as Usual
257% increase in gas consumption ( compared to 2002)
Electricity Options for the Future
Gas Consumption
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
bill
ion
cu
bic
met
res Actual
Business as Usual
Energy Efficiency
20
Energy Efficiency Scenario
Other Options
Some New Nuclear needed by 2025 if CO2 levels are to fall significantly and excessive
gas demand is to be avoided
Business as Usual Scenario
New Nuclear is required even to reduce back to 1990 levels
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MT
on
ne
s C
O2
ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Mto
nn
es C
O2
ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix
25% Renewables by 2025
• 20000 MW Wind
• 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.
Alternative Electricity Options for the Future
21
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
Around 4 million in the Diocese of Norwich.
In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person
Is this Fair?
On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
22
Raising Awareness• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine.
Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.
• Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons.
• A Mobile Phone charger: up to 20 kWh per year
~ 1000 balloons each year. 10 kg CO2
• Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
23
Saving Energy – A Practical GuideWays to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint
Micro Wind
Micro CHP
Heat Pumps
24
Transport
• Car: 5 door Toyota Yaris
• Real performance is best at ~ 50 mph. Saves up to 15% in fuel consumption cf 70 mph.
Chart Title
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Average Speed (mph)
(m
pg)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
02/Jun 22/Jun 12/Jul 01/Aug 21/Aug 10/Sep 30/Sep
km/lt
r
Driver 1
Driver 2
Driver behaviour trials at Banham Poultry
• Driver behaviour affects performance• Driver 2 uses 13.8% more fuel
25
Historic Trends: Freight Transport on Roads
• Distance each tonne has travelled has increased by:– 223% since 1960– 20% since 1990
• Is this increase in movement of freight conducive to optimum economic growth, energy security, and carbon reduction?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003
Tra
nsp
ort
of g
oods
km
/ton
ne
26
Involve the local Community
• The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine.
• On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity.
• Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward.
• Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.
27
Electricity Statistics: Each house in Norwich consumes, 3727 kWh per year.
Broadland 5057 kWh Breckland 5612 kWh
North Norfolk 5668 kWh South Norfolk 5797 kWh
Kings Lynn and 5908 kWh Great 5144 kWh West Norfolk Yarmouth
A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands can supply twice domestic demand of Norwich or 66% on average.
(or 22% of total demand)
Saves ~ 70 000 to 75 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or 40 000 hot air balloons each year.
The alternatives:
Persuade 30 000 motorists never to drive the car againOr 300 000 motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year.
Widespread deployment of small scale renewables, and energy conservation.
28
Hard ChoicesWhat can we as individuals do?What can we do collectively as a Community?
Visit the CRed WEB Site
Sign a pledge to• combat global warming• help secure a sustainable environment for our children• help reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warming• help secure energy supplies for the future
saving energy
Adopting technical solutionsPromoting Awareness
Promoting appropriate renewable energy
www.cred-uk.org
29
CRedcarbon reduction
30
Conclusions
• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades
• Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future.
• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy and small changes to behaviour.
It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.
• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.
• Otherwise Nuclear???
• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.
31
WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/
This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links
• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room
Conclusions
Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."
32
CRedcarbon reductionAnimation Courtesy of Rob Hannington