CRed carbon reduction 1 The Carbon Reduction Project Hard Choices Ahead Energy Science Director: HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation School of Environmental

CRedcarbon reduction 1

The Carbon Reduction ProjectHard Choices Ahead

Energy Science Director:

HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation

School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia

Climate Change: The Greatest Threat to Mankind?

Prospect Village Hall - 3rd/4th November 2006

Keith Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv

CRed

2

Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

(ppm

)

CRedcarbon reduction 3

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000T

emp

erat

ure

Ris

e (o C

)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(o C)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(o C)

Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

actual

actual

actual

predicted

predicted

predictedIs Global Warming man made?

Prediction: Anthropogenic only

Not a good match between 1920 and 1970

Prediction: Natural only

good match until 1960

Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic

Generally a good match

Predictions include:

• Greenhouse Gas emissions

• Sulphates and ozone

• Solar and volcanic activity

4Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation

Source: Tim

Osborne, C

RU

Change in precipitation 1961-2001

5

(Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London)

Norwich

Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise

Norwich City would be playing water polo!

6

19792003

Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite

imagery

Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

7

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)

available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade

~ 2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"

Traditional Coal falling rapidly -

coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020

Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS affect

this

potential contribution to

Electricity Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

Nuclear Generating Capacity

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity (M

W)

Projection

Actual

Wholesale Electricity Prices since NETA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

£/M

Wh

8

On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

9

Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km

But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

10


10+ p

Energy Crops 50% + available, but research needed in some areas

2.5 - 4


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

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10+ p

Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas

2.5 - 4

Wave/TidalStream

100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020

4 - 8p

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


12

Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project

Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

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Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power

• Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?

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If our answer is YES

By 2020

• we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS

• imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, AlgeriaAre we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>

If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? –

Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route

and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

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How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

Around 4 million in the Diocese of Norwich.

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

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Raising Awareness

• Computers do NOT switch off when using the soft “SHUT DOWN”. Typically they will waste 60 kg CO2 a year.

• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons.

• A Mobile Phone charger: > 20 kWh per year ~ 1000 balloons each year.

• Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

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• NETA has to cope with the loss of Sizewell B through a reactor trip. This loss amounts to around 1.5 times the total installed capacity of wind at present.

• NETA also has to cope with sudden changes in demand (up to 2.5 times Sizewell B) in a matter of minutes e.g. from TV scheduling.

• Experience from Denmark shows that the normal maximum change in any one hour from Wind Output is no more than 18% on one occasion in a year. With a larger country area the figures for diverse wind generation will be less in UK.

One will not save Carbon Dioxide because power stations are running in case they are needed.

• There is very little truth in this. The amount of carbon dioxide emitted is dependant on the output of a fossil fuel power station. If it is running under low load it will emit only a very small amount of extra CO2.

• Allowing for this, the effect of standby reserve will amount to a maximum of 15 – 20 gms per kWh of Wind Energy compared to 430 for gas or 1000 for coal.

• A substantial saving is made.

Renewable Energy: The Issues

Isn’t Energy from Renewables unreliable? – we need secure supply

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• Latest some evidence to suggest that a few birds are killed typically 3 per installed MW per year except in a few locations.

• the oldest wind farm in UK on Burgar Hill has an RSPB reserve right next to it.

• in Orkney a party from UEA came across new fewer than 3 dead birds on roads in 2 days in area around turbines.

•Currently UK has around 850 MW installed perhaps 2500 killed a year

•Estimates of 1 million killed each year by vehicles

•British Trust for Ornithology estimate 100 million birds collide with fixed objects of whom one third are killed

Wind Energy: The Issues

Wind Turbines kill birds

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Whilst the wind turbine is considered 'ugly' by some residents of Swaffham, most consider it a unique landmark and see it as an asset to the town. Most of the local population are proud of the turbine and it seems to have had a positive

impact on the town in a number of ways.

I do believe that were it not for the number of visitors to Swaffham, coming to see the turbine for whatever reason, we would not have such a high influx of buyers from out of the area. This has increased house prices, and the prosperity of

the area.

Our Choices: They are difficultAffect House Prices

• Evidence from Estate Agents in the Swaffham Area say they have a positive effect on house prices.

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Wind Turbines are Incredibly Inefficient

Efficiency: the ratio of the USEFUL work to the total energy available (or expended)

Oxford English Dictionary

Modern Wind Turbines convert 40 – 42%% of available energy in the wind

Modern Coal Fired Power Stations achieve 38%

Sizewell B achieves 32%

A car engine achieve 20 - 25% at best

Compared to many other energy devices, Wind Turbines are Very Efficient

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• Capacity Factor issue

• Wind Turbines have a Capacity Factor of 22% in East to 35%+ in West ande 40% in Scotland

• Sizewell B is off line for up to 50 days at a time – loosing equivalent output of 700 + turbines.

• A car driven 10000 miles has a capacity factor of 5%

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• Wind Turbines are beautiful!

» Wind Turbines are Ugly!

• What is the consequence of not using wind alongside conservation, biomass etc?.

• Insecure supply of Electricity when we import fossil fuels from Russia

• The North Norfolk Coal Field

• Increased Famine

• 20 new nuclear power stations in the UK by 2025

• Increased incidence of extreme weather events.

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Saving Energy – A Practical GuideWays to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint

Micro Wind

Micro CHP

Heat Pumps

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• Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine.

• On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity

Involve the local Community

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Conclusions

• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades

• Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future.

• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy

It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.

• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.

• Otherwise Nuclear???

• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.

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WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/

This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links

• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room

Conclusions

Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

Documents

CRed carbon reduction 1 The Carbon Reduction Project Hard Choices Ahead Energy Science Director: HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation School of Environmental