Cover. Polarized light micrograph of the insecticide DDTchm.pops.int/portals/0/download.aspx?d=unep-pops... · Impact of climate change on toxicological and ecotoxicological effects

Cover. Polarized light micrograph of the insecticide DDT.

Climate Change and POP s: Predicting

the Impacts

Report of the UNEP/AMAP

Expert Group

Contents

Preface 5 Acknowledgements 6 ExecutiveSummary 7

Chapter1. Introduction 9

Chapter2. ReleaseofPOPstotheenvironment 12 2.1. Environmentalreleasesfromprimarysources 12 2.2. Impactofclimatechangeonprimaryemissions 12 2.3. Conclusions 14

Chapter3. Environmentalfateandlong-rangetransportofPOPs 15 3.1. Large-scaledistributionintheenvironment 15 3.2. Impactofclimatechangeonenvironmentalfateandlong-rangetransport 16 3.3. Conclusions 20 Chapter4. ImpactofclimatechangeonexposuretoPOPsforwildlifeandhumans 21 4.1. Introduction 21 4.2. Exposureofwildlife 22 4.2.1. Changestofoodwebortrophicstructure 23 4.2.2. ChangestoPOPprocesseswithinorganisms 25 4.3. Exposureofhumanpopulations 26 4.4. Conclusions 27 4.5. Datagapsandrecommendationsforfutureresearch 28

Chapter5. ImpactofclimatechangeontoxicologicalandecotoxicologicaleffectsofPOPsexposure 29 5.1. Introduction 29 5.2. Environmentalhealthimpacts 30 5.2.1. EffectsofPOPsandclimatechangeintheenvironment 30 5.2.2. Effectsoftemperatureontoxicityandtoxicokinetics 31 5.2.3. Effectsofsalinityontoxicity 32 5.2.4. EffectsofpHontoxicity 32 5.2.5. EffectsofUV-radiationontoxicity 32 5.2.6. Effectsofeutrophicationontoxicity 33 5.2.7. EffectsofpO₂inwaterontoxicity 33 5.2.8. Effectsofnutritionalstatusontoxicity 33 5.2.9. EffectsofPOPsonadaptationtoclimatechange 33 5.2.10. Predictedcombinedeffectsonecosystemsindifferentregions 34 5.3. Humanhealthimpacts 35 5.3.1. EffectsofPOPsonhumanpopulations 36 5.3.2. Probablechangesinonsetandseverityofeffectsduetoclimatechangefactors 38 5.4. Conclusions 39 5.5. Data/knowledgegaps 41 5.5.1. Environmentalhealth 41 5.5.2. Humanhealth 41

Chapter6. Co-benefitsofmitigationactivitiesforclimatechangeandPOPsemissionreduction 42 6.1. Introduction 42 6.2. Technologicalandnon-technologicalmeasuresforemissionreductionsofgreenhouse gasesandunintentionallyproducedPOPs 43 6.3. Mitigationoptionsbyimplementationofenvironmentalregulationsandcapacitybuilding 45 6.4. Conclusions 45

Chapter7. Conclusions 46 7.1. Generaltrends 46 7.2. POPsreleases 46 7.3. EnvironmentalfateofPOPs 46 7.4. ExposuretoPOPs 47 7.5. EffectsofPOPsonbiota 47 7.6. HumanhealtheffectsofPOPs 47 7.7. Mitigationco-benefits 48 7.8. Knowledgegaps 48

Chapter8. Policyrecommendations 50 8.1. ExistinginitiativesonPOPsandclimatechange 50 8.2. Science-basedpolicyrecommendations 51 8.3. Conclusions 52

Appendix 53 References 55 Acronyms 62

5

Preface

Thepotentialforclimatechangetoincreasetheplanet’svulnerabilitytopersistentorganicpollutantsisofmajorconcern,multiplyingtherisksposedbyglobalenvironmentalchange.Climatechangealonepresentsseriousthreatstosocietyandtheenvironment,andinconjunctionwithotherenvironmentalstressors,increasedrisksandhighervulnerabilityofhumanpopulationsandecosystemsareforeseen.Whilethelevelofscientificunderstandingassociatedwitheachcomponentisrelativelywell-defined,assessmentofthecoupleddynamicsofmultipleenvironmentalstressorsandprocessesisassociatedwithhigheruncertaintiesandknowledgegaps.

Inthisperspective,scienceholdsthekeynotjusttoadvancingourunderstandingofthesecomplexproblems,butalsotoimprovingourabilitytoreducetheriskstheyposetotheworld.Findingappropriatesolutionstoaddresstoday’scomplex,intertwinedenvironmentalissuesrequiresstrongscientificsupportandadvice.

Tosupportinformeddecisionmaking,theSecretariatoftheStockholmConvention,incollaborationwiththeArcticCouncil’sArcticMonitoringandAssessmentProgramme(AMAP)invitedanumberofdistinguishedexpertstoreviewthemostrecentscientificfindingsonclimatechangeeffectsonpersistentorganicpollutantswithinaglobalperspective.ThiscooperationensuredthatthestudybenefitedfromtheextensiveassessmentexperienceandongoingscientificinvestigationsofthisissueintheArcticregion.

Significantclimate-inducedchangesareforeseeninrelationtofuturereleasesofpersistentorganicpollutantsintotheenvironment,theirlong-rangetransportandenvironmentalfate,andtohumanandenvironmentalexposure,subsequentlyleadingtohigherhealthrisksbothforhumanpopulationsandtheenvironment.

ThefindingsandconclusionsofthissystematicandauthoritativestudyoffertheopportunitytothePartiestotheStockholmConventiontoworkmoreeffectivelytowardsmeetingtheobjectiveoftheConventiontoprotecthumanhealthandtheenvironmentfrompersistentorganicpollutants,byconsideringaspectsofcoupleddynamicsbetweenclimateprocessesandpersistentorganicpollutants.

DOnAldCOOPer Executive Secretary of the Stockholm Convention

6

Acknowledgements

ThisreporthasbeencompiledbytheSecretariatsoftheStockholmConventioninGeneva,SwitzerlandandtheArcticMonitoringandAssessmentProgrammeinOslo,Norway.ItisbasedontheworkofajointUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme/ArcticMonitoringandAssessmentProgramme(UneP/AMAP)ExpertGroupconvenedinJune2010.TheExpertGroupdraftedthesciencechaptersandprovidedcommentson,andrevisionsto,thescientificcontentthroughouttheprocessofdevelopingthisreport.Thesynthesisoftheinformationintoconclusionsandpolicyrecommendationstookplaceataface-to-facemeetinginGeneva,6-8October,2010andthroughteleconferencesandcorrespondence.Everyefforthasbeenmadetoprovideaccurateinformation.TheviewspresentedinthisreportarethoseoftheExpertGroupanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofeitherUnePorAMAP.

Draftsofthisreporthavebeensignificantlyimprovedthroughtheeffortsofmanyindividualswhohaveprovidedcontentandcriticalreview.Theseindividualsaregratefullyacknowledgedbelow.

Authors:KatarinaMagulovaandAnaPriceputu(Chapter1);ChristianBogdalandMartinScheringer(Chapters2and3);IanCousins,DeguoKongandRobinVestergren(Chapter4);AndrewGilmanandBjørnMunroJenssen(Chapter5);JozefPacyna,KyrreSundsethandElisabethPacyna(Chapter6);MariannLloyd-SmithandMarioYarto(Chapter8).

Contributors:Thefollowingindividualscontributedtextandinformationtosupplementthecontentofthereport:RolandKallenborn,JianminMa,MatthewMacLeod(Chapters2and3);RicardoBarra,RobieMacdonald,HelmutSegner,GreggTomy(Chapter5);HeideloreFiedler(Chapter8).

Reviewers:Thefollowingreviewersreadandcommentedondraftsofthereport:SounkouraAdetonah,AbdouramanBary,KnutBreivik,RamonGuardans,TomHarner,IvanHoloubek,JianxinHu,RolandKallenborn,EvaKruemmel,FedeLeon,YifanLi,JianminMa,RobieMacdonald,RonaldMacFarlane,PamelaKMiller,DerekMuir,JayvanOostdam,Lars-OttoReiersen,ArnoldSchecter,HelmutSegner,RusselShearer,GreggTomy,SimonWilson,CynthiadeWit.

Organizationandprojectsupport:SpecialthanksareextendedtoFatoumataOuane(StockholmConventionSecretariat),KatarinaMagulova(StockholmConventionSecretariat),AnaPriceputu(StockholmConventionSecretariat),Lars-OttoReiersen(ArcticMonitoringandAssessmentProgramme),SimonWilson(ArcticMonitoringandAssessmentProgramme),AndrewGilman(StockholmConventionSecretariatScienceConsultant)andRonaldMacFarlane(StockholmConventionSecretariatConsultant)whohaveworkeddiligentlytosteertheprocess.

ThistechnicaldocumentwassharedwithandreviewedbythemembersoftheGlobalCoordinationGroupfortheGlobalMonitoringPlanforPersistentOrganicPollutants.ThedocumentrepresentsthetechnicalbasisofthereportonpolicyrecommendationssubmittedtothefifthmeetingoftheConferenceofthePartiestotheStockholmConvention,25-29April,2011.

7

Executive Summary

ThefirstglobalmonitoringreportundertheGlobalMonitoringPlan(GMP)wasreleasedin2009andrecognizedtheimportanceofclimateeffectsonpersistentorganicpollutants(POPs).ItalsostressedtheneedtoconsiderpossibleclimateeffectswheninterpretingtemporaltrenddataforPOPsinGMPcoremedia(i.e.,humantissuesandair).ThepresentworkisbasedonthemandategiventotheGlobalCoordinationGroup(GCG)bytheConferenceofthePartiestotheStockholmConventionatitsfourthmeeting(DecisionSC-4/31)toassessclimateinfluencesonthelevelsofPOPsmeasuredintheenvironmentandinhumansandtherelevanceofhowtheseinfluencesmayinterferewithpresentandfutureevaluationsoftheeffectivenessofthemeasuresundertakenthroughtheStockholmConvention.

ThereporthighlightskeyscientificfindingsrelatedtothecomplexrelationshipsbetweenclimatechangeandabatementofPOPs.ItprovidesanoverallviewofPOPsreleasesintotheenvironment,long-rangetransportandenvironmentalfate,andhumanandenvironmentalexposureinachangingclimate,aswellaspotentialcoupledeffectsofclimateandPOPsonhumanhealthandtheenvironment.ThereportalsoaddressesthesynergiesbetweenclimatechangemitigationpoliciesandactionstoeliminateandmanagePOPs,andprovidesrecommendationsbasedonthecurrentstateofscience.

ClimatechangemayaffectprimaryemissionstoairofPOPsbychangingtheirrateofmobilizationfrommaterialsorstockpiles,orbyalteringusepatterns.ThiscouldresultinanincreaseinprimaryemissionsthatcouldoffsetsomeoftheeffortsundertakentoreduceemissionsofPOPsundertheStockholmConvention.HighertemperatureswillalsoincreasesecondaryemissionsofPOPstoairbyshiftingthepartitioningofPOPsbetweenairandsoil,andbetweenairandwater.Releasesfromenvironmentalreservoirssuchassoil,waterandicewillalsoincreaseduetotheseincreasingtemperatures.Theeffectoftemperatureonemissionsofsemi-volatilePOPsisprobablythemostimportanteffectandstrongerthananyothereffectofclimatechangeontheenvironmentalcyclingofPOPs.Theexpectedincreaseintheincidenceofvector-bornediseaseassociatedwithclimatechange,suchasmalaria,mayleadtoenhanceddemandforandreleaseofddT(dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane)insomeregions.

ThereareseveralmainfactorsrelateddirectlytoclimatechangewhichhavepreviouslyinfluencedandwillcontinuetoinfluencetheenvironmentalfateofPOPs,includingtheirlong-rangetransport.Theseinclude:thestrengthofsecondaryre-volatilizationsources;windfieldsand

windspeed;precipitationrates;oceancurrents;meltingofpolaricecapsandmountainglaciers;higherfrequencyofextremeevents;degradationandtransformation;partitioning;and,biotictransport.

ClimatechangeisexpectedtomodulatetheimpactresultingfromexposureofhumansandwildlifetoPOPs.However,thelackofunderstandingofclimatechangeeffectsonfoodwebstructuresanddynamicsmeansthatitisnotcurrentlypossibletomakereliablepredictionsoftheextentoftheseimpacts.Norisitpossibletodetermineiftheeffectswillbefeltupordownthefoodchain,i.e.,whethertopofthefoodchainspeciesaremostaffected,causingarippledowneffecttolowertrophiclevelspecies,orwhetherchangesinlowertrophiclevelspecieswillleadtodisturbancesintheviabilityofhighertrophiclevelspecies.

Climatechange,includingincreasingclimatevariability,willalsoaffectbiodiversity,andecosystemcomposition,function,andvulnerability.Toxicityandtoxico-kineticsofPOPscouldbealteredasadirectresultofchangesintemperature.Climatechangewillalsoaltersalinity,oceanacidification,eutrophication,wateroxygenlevels,andthenutritionalstatusofspeciesandtheiradaptability.Thesechanges,eitheraloneorincombination,couldenhancethetoxiceffectsofPOPsonwildlife,increasediseaserisks,andincreasespeciesvulnerability.

Persistentorganicpollutantsareknowntohavenegativehealtheffectsonhumans,suchas

8

cardiovasculardisease,immunosuppression,metabolicdisorders,cancer,andneurobehavioral,endocrineandreproductiveeffects.IfclimatechangeresultsinanincreaseinexposuretoPOPs,thiswouldincreasetherisksrelatedtotheirharmfuleffects.Thecombinedeffectofseveralclimate-relatedfactors–forexample,excessiveheatorcold,populationmigrationrelatedtotemperaturechangeandlossofarableland,increasedexposuretoinsectvectorsofdisease,andchangesintheavailabilityandqualityoftraditional/localfood–couldalsoaggravatetheeffectsofPOPsexposureonhumanpopulations.Socio-economicfactorssuchaseducationandgeneralhealthstatuscanalsocontributetohumanvulnerabilitytoPOPs.

Implementationofvariousclimatechangemitigationoptionstargetedtoreducecarbondioxideemissions,suchasimprovementofenergyefficiencyinpowerstations,replacementoffossilfuelsbyrenewablesources,andimprovementofcombustion,industrialandtransportationtechnologies,islikelytohaveapositiveimpactonthereductionofreleasesofunintentionallyproducedPOPs(i.e.,mainlypolychlorinateddibenzo-p-dioxins/polychlorinateddibenzofurans,hexachlorobenzene,polychlorinatedbiphenyls).Thesemeasurescouldalsoreducetheemissionsofseveralnon-POPscontaminantsofconcern(e.g.,nitrogenandsulfuroxidesandothergases,particulates,mercuryandothermetals).Thereare,however,somepotentialnegativeimpactsthatneedtobetakenintoaccountwhenconsideringmitigationoptions.Forexample,increaseduseofbiomassfuelcouldincreaseemissionsofunintentionallyproducedPOPs.

Thisreportidentifiesseveralkeyareaswhereknowledgegapsexistandprovidesrecommendationstoaddressthesegaps.

InTrOdUCTiOn 9

Chapter 1. Introduction KATArinAMAGUlOVAandAnAPriCePUTU

TheStockholmConventiononPersistentOrganicPollutantsaimstoprotecthumanhealthandtheenvironmentfromthenegativeeffectsofPOPs,byrestrictingandultimatelyeliminatingtheirproduction,use,releaseandunsafedisposal.Thesearechemicalsubstancesthathavetoxicproperties,resistdegradationintheenvironment,bioaccumulatethroughfoodchainsandaretransportedlongdistancesthroughmovingairmasses,watercurrentsandmigratoryspecies,withinandacrossinternationalboundaries.TheStockholmConventionwasadoptedon22May2001andenteredintoforceon17May2004.Itinitiallylistedtwelvechemicals(showninboldfontinfootnotes1-3below).Ingeneral,these‘legacy’POPswerefirstproducedand/orusedseveraldecadesago,theirpersistence,bioaccumulativepropertiesandpotentialforlong-rangetransportarewellstudied,andtheyhavebeengloballybannedorrestrictedsince2004.In2009,ninemoresubstanceswereaddedtotheConvention(chemicalswithanasteriskinfootnotes1-3).The21POPsbelongtothreegroups:

• pesticidesusedinagriculturalapplications,forfunguscontrolorforinsectcontrol1

• industrialchemicalsusedinvariousapplications2

• chemicalsgeneratedunintentionallyasaresultofincompletecombustionand/orchemicalreactions3.

Someofthechemicalsfitintomorethanoneofthesethreegeneralcategories,forexample,hexachlorobenzene(HCB),pentachlorobenzene(PeCB),polychlorinatedbiphenyls(PCBs)(seefootnotes1-3).WhilesomechemicalsaregroupedtogetherintheeliminationorcontrolAnnexesoftheConvention,forexample,penta-andtetrabrominateddiphenylethersrepresentonelistingforeliminationofcommercialpentabrominateddiphenylether(seefootnote2).

TheprovisionsoftheStockholmConventionareaimedtoaddresshealthandenvironmentalconcernsatthegloballevel,whilefocusingoneffectsresultingfromlocalorregionalexposurestoPOPs.SpecificattentionisplacedontheimpactsofPOPsuponthemostvulnerablehumanpopulationgroups,suchasintheArctic.Theseincludethefetus,newborns,childrenandwomenofreproductiveage.TheConventionalsoemphasizesthestrengtheningofnationalcapacitiesforthemanagementofchemicalsindevelopingregions,includingthroughtransferoftechnology,theprovisionoffinancialandtechnicalassistance,andthepromotionofcooperationandinformationexchangeamongthePartiestotheConvention.

Article11oftheStockholmConventionencouragesPartiestoundertakeresearch,development,monitoringandcooperationactivitiesonPOPs,aswellasontheiralternativesand‘candidate’POPs(candidatechemicalsunderreviewbythePOPsReviewCommittee),includingaspectsrelatedtosourcesandreleasesintotheenvironment,levelsandtrends,transport,fateandtransformation,andeffectsonhumanhealthandtheenvironment.

Article16oftheStockholmConventioncallsfortheConferenceofthePartiestoevaluateperiodicallywhethertheConventionisaneffectivetoolinachievingtheobjectiveofprotecting

1 aldrin,chlordane,chlordecone*,dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane(DDT),dieldrin,endrin,heptachlor,hexachlorobenzene(HCB),gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane(γ-HCH,lindane)*andby-productsoflindane[alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane(α-HCH)*andbeta-hexachlorocyclohexane(β-HCH)*],mirex,toxaphene.

2 tetra-andpentabromodiphenylethers(PBdes)*,hexa-andheptabromodiphenylethers(PBdes)*,hexabromobiphenyl*,perfluorooctanesulfonicacid(PFOS),itssaltsandperfluorooctanesulfonylfluoride(PFOS-F)*,pentachlorobenzene(PeCB)*,polychlorinatedbiphenyls(PCBs).

3 hexachlorobenzene(HCB),pentachlorobenzene(PeCB)*,polychlorinatedbiphenyls(PCBs)andpolychlorinateddibenzo-p-dioxins(PCDDs)anddibenzofurans(PCDFs).

10 CliMATeCHAnGeAndPOPS:PrediCTinGTHeiMPACTS

humanhealthandtheenvironment;thisevaluationisbasedonseveraltypesofinformation,oneofwhichiscomparableandconsistentmonitoringdataonthepresenceofPOPsintheenvironmentandinhumans.TheGlobalMonitoringPlan(GMP)forPOPs,whichhasbeenputinplaceundertheConvention,isakeycomponentoftheeffectivenessevaluationandprovidesaharmonizedframeworktoidentifychangesinlevelsofPOPsovertime,aswellasinformationontheirregionalandglobalenvironmentaltransport.

Becausetherelease,distributionanddegradationofPOPsarehighlydependentonenvironmentalconditions,climatechangeandincreasingclimatevariabilityhavethepotentialtoaffectPOPscontaminationviachangesinemissionsources,transportprocessesandpathways,androutesofdegradation.Climatevariationmayalsoleadtoexposuretochemicalsthroughdifferentsources,processesandmechanisms.ThiswillhaveimplicationsfortheeffectivenessevaluationoftheStockholmConvention,asthemeasuredlevelsofPOPswillincludeaclimate-inducedcomponent.

ThefirstglobalmonitoringreportundertheGMPreleasedin2009recognizedtheimportanceofclimateeffectsonPOPsandstressedtheneedtoconsiderpossibleclimateeffectswheninterpretingtemporaltrenddataforPOPsinGMPcoremedia(i.e.,humantissuesandair).ThereportconcludedthatconsiderationoftheeffectsofclimateonthetransportandpartitioningofPOPshadthepotentialtoimprovesignificantlytheinterpretationofmeasurementsofPOPsinenvironmentalmediainfutureevaluations.ItalsoconcludedthatfurtherstudiesshouldbeencouragedtoassessclimateinfluencesonlevelsofPOPsinenvironmentalmedia.

Furthermore,DecisionSC-4/31ontheGMPestablishingthetermsofreferenceoftheRegionalOrganizationGroupsandtheGlobalCoordinationGroup,encouragesfurtherassessmentoflong-rangetransportofPOPswhileconsideringtheeffectofclimateandmeteorologyontheobservedtrendsinlevelsofPOPs.ThepresentworkisbasedonthemandategiventotheGlobalCoordinationGrouptoassessclimateinfluencesonthelevelsofPOPsmeasuredintheenvironmentandinhumans.

TheArcticCouncil’sArcticMonitoringandAssessmentProgramme(AMAP)hasconductedanumberofactivitiesinrecentyearsdocumentingthelinkagesbetweenclimatechangeandenvironmentaltransportandfateofcontaminants,includingPOPs.IthasalsoproducedseveralassessmentsofPOPsintheArctic,mostrecentlyin2010(seewww.amap.no),theresultsofwhichcontributetotheworkunderArticle16oftheStockholmConventionandthefurtherdevelopmentoftheGMP.AMAPismandatedtosupportthedevelopmentandimplementationofinternational

ddTsprayinginNamibia

InTrOdUCTiOn 11

agreementsthatwillreduceenvironmentalcontaminationandeffectsintheArcticregion. TheSecretariatoftheStockholmConventionandAMAPjointlyimplementedastrategytoprepare

thistechnicalbackgrounddocumentinordertoprovideconsistentinformationtoboththeConferenceofthePartiestotheStockholmConventionandtotheArcticCouncil.

ThistechnicalreportdrawsonotherrecentandongoingstudiesthataimtoassessclimatechangeeffectsonPOPsdynamicsandtoxicity,aswellasonthewiderscientificliteratureinordertoprovideabriefoverallsynthesis/reviewofthecurrentstateofknowledgeatthegloballevel,andespeciallywithreferencetotheStockholmConvention.

ThistechnicalreporthighlightskeyfindingsrelatedtothecomplexrelationshipsbetweenclimatechangeandPOPs.ItaimstoprovideanoverallglobalviewofPOPsreleasesintotheenvironment,long-rangetransportandenvironmentalfate,andhumanandenvironmentalexposureinachangingclimate,aswellasthepotentialforacouplingoftheeffectsofclimateandPOPsonhumanhealthandtheenvironment.ItalsoaddressesthesynergiesbetweentheclimatechangeandPOPspolicyagendasandprovidespolicymessagesbasedonthecurrentstateofscience.Thisdocumentidentifiesareasofuncertaintyandexistinggapsininformationandknowledge.

AnimprovedunderstandingoftheinfluenceofclimatechangeonPOPsdynamics,exposureandtoxicitytogetherwithabetterunderstandingofhowthesecombinetoaffectecosystemandhumanhealthwillassistthescientificcommunityanddecision-makersindevelopingappropriatepolicyresponsesthatmaybeaddressedthroughtheStockholmConventionandregionalandnationalstrategies.BettermanagementofPOPswillbenefittheglobalcommunityand,inparticular,sub-populationsthataremostatriskfromexposuretoPOPs.Theidentificationofgapsininformationandknowledgedescribedinthistechnicalreportmaystimulateadditionalresearchtoaddresstheseoutstandingneeds.

Thisreporthaseightchapters.Followingthisintroduction,Chapter2providesinformationonhowchangesinclimatehaveaffectedandmaycontinuetoaffectreleasesofPOPs(includingexistinginventoriesandstockpiles)andpossiblenewusesofPOPsindifferentindustrialsectors.Chapter3addressesbothgenericandspecificfateandtransportprocessesforPOPs,withanemphasisonre-releasesofPOPsfromdifferentenvironmentalcompartmentssuchastheoceans,ice,andlandmasses.Chapter4investigatesthepotentialforchangesinexposurelevelsoftheenvironmentandhumanpopulations,whileChapter5discussesthehealthandecotoxicologicalimplicationsoftheprojectedchangesinexposure.Chapter6analyzespossibleco-benefitsofclimatechangemitigationactivitiesandPOPsemissionreductionmeasures.Chapter7summarizesthemainconclusions,whilepolicyrecommendationsdrawnfromthescientificassessmentareprovidedinChapter8.


Chapter 2. Release of POP s to the environment CHriSTiAnBOGdAlandMArTinSCHerinGer

2.1. Environmental releases from primary sources

PastandcurrentusesofintentionallyproducedPOPsleadtoprimaryreleases–alsoreferredtoasprimaryemissions–intotheenvironment.Thatis,directdispersiononsoilsandintoair(pesticides),volatilizationintoairfrominitialapplications(semi-volatiletechnicalchemicals,e.g.,PCBsandpolybrominateddiphenylethers(PBdes)),andleachingintowaterfrominitialapplications(watersolubletechnicalchemicals,e.g.,perfluorooctanesulfonate(PFOS)/perfluorooctanesulfonylfluoride(PFOS-F)).Currently,ddTistheonlyPOPpesticidethatisproducedandappliedinappreciableamountsformalariacontrol,PFOS/PFOS-Farestillusedinawiderangeofapplications,andthereareextensiveamountsofPBdesinproductsandstockpilesofobsoleteformulations.EmissionsintoairofunintentionallygeneratedPOPsresultfromside-reactionsinthermalandchemicalprocesses(e.g.,polychlorinateddibenzo-p-dioxins(PCdds)/polychlorinateddibenzofurans,(PCdFs)generatedbycombustion).AlthoughthemajorityofenvironmentalPOPsourcesarerelatedtoanthropogenicactivities,somenaturalprocessesgeneratingPOPsinsmallamountshavebeenidentified,suchasPCddsandPCdFsfromforestfires(Hungetal.,2010).

ThegeographicaloccurrenceofthereleaseofPOPsandtheirdistributionintheenvironmentisassociatedwiththeirglobalproductionandusagepattern.CurrentreleasesofPOPsusedaspesticidesareoftenrelatedtotheirformerapplicationsinlargeagriculturalareas(Li,1999;vonWaldowetal.,2010).WorldwideemissionsofPOPsformerlyusedastechnicalchemicalsarehighestinindustrializedcountriesintheNorthernHemisphere.Factorsrepresentativeoftheeconomicstatusandthepopulationdensityofacountry,suchasnight-timelightemissionsandelectricpowerconsumption,havealsobeenconsideredasrepresentativeoftheuseandassociatedemissionsoftechnicalchemicals(Breiviketal.,2002;Dolletal.,2006;vonWaldowetal.,2010).Duringthepastdecades,practicesandregulationsfortheuseofhazardouschemicalshavebeenimprovedbothinindustrializedandlessindustrializednations.Today,productionandassociatedreleasesofhalogenatedchemicals,aswellasdisposalandrecyclingofPOP-containingapplications(suchaselectronicequipment)areincreasinglyrelocatedtodevelopingcountriesandcountrieswitheconomiesintransition.Thesecountriesoftendonotyethaveavailablestate-of-theartproductiontechnology,workersmaylacktheeducationrequiredforproductionandusemanagement,andfrequentlyhaveinsufficientregulationsand/orenforcementregimesforthesesectors,includingself-regulation/voluntaryregulationbyindustries(Weberetal.,2008a,b).

2.2. Impact of climate change on primary emissions TheobjectiveoftheStockholmConventionisto“…protect human health and the environment

from persistent organic pollutants”.Tomeetthisobjective,theConventioneliminatesorseverelyrestrictstheproductionand/oruseofPOPs.TheConventionalsomanagesreleasesbylimitingsale,transportationandstorageofPOPs.However,theeffortsundertakenthroughtheStockholmConventionmaybeunderminedbyclimatechangeinseveralways.ClimatechangemayaffectprimaryemissionsofPOPsbychangingtheirrateofmobilizationfrommaterialsorstockpiles,orbyalteringusepatterns.IncreasingambienttemperatureswilldirectlyleadtoenhancedemissionsofPOPsthatvolatilizefromexistingPOP-containingapplications.Thevaporpressureofchemicalsincreasesexponentiallywithtemperature,whichshiftsthepartitioningbetweenairandsoilandbetweenairandwater.Thus,increasingtemperaturesenhancevolatilizationand,therefore,leadtoincreasedemissionsintoair(Lamonetal.,2009).Forsemi-volatilechemicals,suchasmostPOPs,theemissionsbyvolatilizationareparticularlysensitivetoasmallmodificationofvaporpressure.Theglobalaverageofsurfacetemperatureshasincreasedbyabout0.74°Cintheperiod1906to

ReleASeOFPOPSTOTHeenVirOnMenT 13

2005.Elevenofthetwelvewarmestyearsoccurredbetween1995and2006.However,thewarminghasbeenneithersteadynorthesameindifferentseasonsoratdifferentlocations.Seasonally,warminghasbeenslightlygreaterintheNorthernHemisphereandespeciallyintheArctic.

Warming,particularlysincethe1970s,hasgenerallybeengreateroverlandthanovertheoceans.Additionalwarmingoccursincitiesandurbanareas,oftenreferredtoasthe‘urbanheatislandeffect’.Anincreaseintemperatureof1 °C,whichistobeexpectedinthenearfuture(iPCC,2007),willresultinanapproximately10%to15%increaseinthevolatilityofatypicalsemi-volatilePOP(e.g.,PCBs).Locally,temperaturesmay,however,increasebyconsiderablymore(iPCC,2007).A10 °Criseinambienttemperaturewillresultinanapproximate3-foldincreaseinthevolatilityofatypicalPOP.Therefore,emissionsofPOPspresentinopenapplicationsareexpectedtoincrease,suchasPCBsusedasplasticizersinpaintsandjointsealants,andPBdesusedasflameretardants.

TheeffectoftemperatureonprimaryemissionsofPOPsisprobablythemostimportanteffect,strongerthanmanyothereffectsofclimatechangeontheenvironmentalfateofPOPs(seeChapter3).Inanexperimentwithaglobalenvironmentalfatemodelthatcomparedtheeffectofincreasingtemperature,changingwindfields,changingoceancurrents,andchangingprecipitationontheglobaldistributionofPCBs,higherconcentrationsofPCBsinairwereobtainedinallpartsoftheworld(Lamonetal.,2009).Thisismainlycausedbystrongeremissionsfromprimarysourcesand,toalesserextent,byincreasedre-volatilizationfromPOPreservoirsinsoilsandseawater(seeChapter3).

Further,increasingglobaltemperaturesareexpectedtointensifythepropagationandspreadofmalariaandothervector-bornediseasesintropicalcountriessothatlargerareasthanatpresentmayneedmalariacontrol.TheexistingpublichealthexemptionontheuseofddTforcombatingmalariamayleadtoenhanceddemandforddTand,consequently,mayleadtoincreasingemissionsofddT.

OwingtothiseffectofclimatechangeonthedemandforgreateruseofsomePOPsandincreasedvolatilizationofPOPsfromexistingprimarysources,theoveralltrendoffuturereleasesofPOPsislikelytoincreasealthoughthecertaintyofthepredictionsislimited.ForsomePOPs,climatechange-inducedenhancementofemissionsmayreducetheexpectedeffectivenessoftheStockholmConvention,resultinginreleasesdecreasinglessrapidlythantargeted.ForotherPOPs,suchasddT,continuingorevenincreasingdemandandincreasingvolatilizationmayoutweigh

Brominechemicalfumesabovearefinery

atSidom,Israel


reductionefforts,possiblyleadingtostabilizingorevenincreasingoverallreleasesofsomePOPsintotheenvironment.

Oncereleasedintotheenvironmentfromprimarysources,POPsmaybetemporarilystoredin

environmentalreservoirs,whichcanthenturnintosecondarysourcesofPOPs.TheimpactofclimatechangeonsecondarysourcesofPOPsisaddressedinChapter3.

2.3. Conclusions ClimatechangemakesitdifficulttopredicttheoveralltrendoffuturereleasesofPOPs.Whereas

theeffortsundertakenundertheStockholmConventionareexpectedtoreducereleases,climatechangemaycounteracttheseefforts.Increasingglobaltemperaturesarelikelytointensifypropagationofvector-bornediseasessuchasmalariaand,thus,enhancethedemandforinsecticideslikelytoincludeddT.Also,emissionsofPOPsfromremainingstocks(e.g.,PCBsstillpresentinbuildingsandelectricalequipment)willincreasewithawarmingclimatebecausevolatilizationofchemicalsincreasesexponentiallywithtemperature.

Althoughthemagnitudeoftheseeffectsisunclear,somePOPsmayshowaslowdownofemission

reductionswhereasotherPOPsmayevenhaveincreasingemissions.IncreasingdemandandhigheremissionsfromvolatilizationsourceswillinfluenceboththeprojectionsandinterpretationoffuturetrendsofenvironmentalcontaminationbyPOPs.

TheexistinguncertaintyassociatedwiththeexpandeduseandreleaseofPOPspointstotheneedforimprovedquantificationandcharacterizationofusepatternsofPOPs(e.g.,ddTappliedinmalariaaffectedregions)andvolatilizationsourcesofPOPs(e.g.,PCBsstoragesitesandotherPOPswastesites).

EnVirOnMenTAlFATeAndlOnG-rAnGeTrAnSPOrTOFPOPS 15

Chapter 3. Environmental fate and long-range transport of POP s CHriSTiAnBOGdAlandMArTinSCHerinGer

3.1. Large-scale distribution in the environment Afterrelease,POPsaretransportedawayfromthesourceregionswithmovingairmassesand,in

thelongterm,alsowithoceancurrents.Transportbyoceancurrentsisparticularlyimportantforrelativelywater-solublechemicalssuchashexachlorocyclohexanes(HCHs)andperfluorinatedacids(PFOS,perfluorooctanoicacid(PFOA)).AlthoughthevaporpressureofmostPOPsisrelativelylow(below1Pa),itissufficienttosupportsignificantmobilizationbyvolatilization(seeChapter2).

Bothtransportpathways(airandwater)togethercarryPOPsintoallregionsoftheworld,ashasbeenextensivelydocumentedbymeasurementsinvariousmediaintheArcticandAntarctic(Muiretal.,1999;Macdonaldetal.,2000;WeberandGoerke,2003;Corsolini,2009;Hungetal.,2010).

Forchemicalstransportedbyair,hemisphericdistributionoccurswithinweeksormonths,whereasinter-hemisphericmixingtakesplaceonthetimescaleofyears.TheeffectivenessofairbornetransportofPOPsisdeterminedbytheinterplaybetween:transport(i.e.,windspeedanddirection);removalfromairbydegradation,whichoccursmainlybyreactionwithOHradicalsforchlorinatedcompoundsandphotolytictransformationforbrominatedchemicals;andremovalfromairbydeposition,whichincludesdryandwetdepositionofPOPsinthegaseousphaseanddryandwetdepositionofPOPsassociatedwithatmosphericparticles(aerosols).Wetanddrydepositionoftheparticle-boundfractionofPOPsis,onaverage,thefastestandmosteffectiveoftheremovalprocesses.DegradationformostPOPsisrelativelyslow,particularlythereactionwithOHradicals,whichhashalf-livesoftheorderofdaystoweeksandevenmonthsoryears.GiventhatthetransportofPOPsfromindustrialregionstoremoteareasliketheArctictakesdaystoweeks,somePOPswillundergodegradationduring‘transportation’,whileotherswillremainunaltered.POPswithrelativelyhighvaporpressuresuchaslighterPCBsaremainlyinthegasphase,whereasPOPswithlowvaporpressure,suchashighlyhalogenatedPCBsorPBdesarestronglyassociatedwithaerosolparticles.Becauseofthehighefficiencyoftheparticle-associateddepositionprocesses(washoutwithrain,gravitationalsettling),POPswithlowervaporpressureareremovedmorequicklyandtravelshorterdistances(onaverage).Thisdifferenceinremovalefficienciesleadstotheso-called‘globalfractionation’effect,whereinmorevolatilePOPsarepronetotravellinglongerdistancesintheenvironmentthanlessvolatilePOPs.

TheglobaldistributionofPOPshasbeeninvestigatedbylarge-scalefieldstudies,includinganalysisoflargesetsofsamplesoftreebark(SimonichandHites,1995),soil(Meijeretal.,2003),vegetation(Tremoladaetal.,1996),butter(Kalantzietal.,2001),airandprecipitation(Juradoetal.,2004,2005;Pozoetal.,2006),andbiota(SolomonandWeiss,2002;Hites,2004;CarlsonandHites,2005).Forairsampling,bothactiveandpassivesamplerapproacheshavebeenusedandprovedtobeusefulascomplementarymethods(Gouinetal.,2005).

ThefieldstudiesindicatethatvolatilecompoundssuchasHCBarealmostevenlydistributedwithintheNorthernHemisphereorevenglobally.Incontrast,concentrationsoflessvolatilecompoundssuchashighlychlorinatedPCBsshowhighestvaluesinandaroundthepopulatedregionsofprimaryreleasesandareconsiderablylower–butclearlynotzero–inmoreremoteregions.Importantquestionsinthiscontextare:(1)whetherprimarysourcesstilldominatetheobservedlevels,global-scaledistributionpatterns,andtimetrendsofPOPsintheenvironment;and(2)whatistherelativecontributionfromsecondarysources(e.g.,soilsandoceans)throughremobilizationofPOPs?Currentevidencesuggeststhatprimarysourcesarestilldominating,atleastforPCBs(Gioiaetal.,2006;Lietal.,2010;Schusteretal.,2010).


3.2. Impact of climate change on environmental fate and long-range transport HighertemperaturesincreasetherateofvolatilizationofPOPsfromopensources.Th isfactor,

whichisaddressedinChapter2,mainlyconcernsprimaryemissionsandmaybeadominatingeffectofclimatechangeontheenvironmentaldistributionofPOPs.However,climatechangewillalsoaffecttheenvironmentalfateofPOPsoncetheyhavebeenemittedintotheenvironmentfromprimarysources.Th ereareseveralmainfactorsthatarerelevantfortheenvironmentalfateandlong-rangetransportofPOPsandthatmaybeaffectedbyclimatechange(seeFigure3.1).ForthemonitoringofPOPsundertheGMP,itwillbeimportanttotakesuchfactorsintoaccount.Forexample,increasedre-volatilizationfromenvironmentalreservoirssuchassoilorglaciers(process1inFigure3.1)willincreaselevelsdetectedbymonitoringprograms.IntheinterpretationofthesedataandthedevelopmentofcontroloptionsundertheStockholmConvention,itwillbeimportanttounderstandtherelativerolesplayedbyprimaryandsecondarysources.Onlythencanconclusionsontheeffectivenessofmeasurestoreduceemissionsfromprimarysourcesbedrawn.

Figure3.1.ConceptualrepresentationofkeyfactorsinfluencingtheenvironmentalfateandtransportofPOPsunderaclimatechangescenario.Numberscorrespondtoenumerateditemsinthetext,includingclimate-change-inducedmodificationsin(1)strengthofsecondaryre-volatilizationsources,(2)windfieldsandwindspeed,(3)precipitation,(4)oceancurrents,(5)meltingofpolaricecapsandmountainglaciers,(6)frequencyofextremeevents,()degradationandtransformationofPOPs,(8)environmentalpartitioningofPOPs,and(9)biotictransportofPOPs.NotethattheprocessesdepictedfortheNorthernHemispherearethesameintheSouthernHemisphere.

EffectsofclimatechangeonfactorsgoverningtheenvironmentalfateofPOPsinclude:

1. Th estrengthofsecondaryre-volatilizationsources.Th eprocessofincreasingvolatilizationwithincreasingtemperaturemainlyaffectsreleasesofPOPsfromprimarysources;howeverPOPscanalsore-volatilizefromsecondarysources.Environmentalreservoirs(e.g.,surfacewater,soils,vegetation,permafrost,snowandice)thathavebeenloadedwithPOPsinitiallyemittedfromprimarysourcescanbecomesecondarysourcesofPOPs.Landusechanges(e.g.,agriculturalland

inter-hemispheric mixing

regionalwindpatterns

solarirradiation

primaryemissions

extremeweatherevents wet and dry

deposition

latitude

temperature

mountainsand glaciers

ruralareaslakes

urbanareas

industrialareas

currents

oceans

2

6 6 69

7

2

3 3 3

9

5 5

5

81

477

7

polarregions

temperateregions

tropicalregions

Southern Hemisphere Northern Hemisphere

global wind patterns

•OH

66


useintheArcticregion)willchangevegetationcover,affectenvironmentalreservoirs,and,inturn,modifysecondaryemissionsofPOPs.DepositionofPOPsfromtheatmosphereintofoliageandsubsequentformationoflong-termsoilreservoirs(WaniaandMcLachlan,2001)maybeaffectedbyclimate-change-inducedmodificationoflanduse.Forinstance,increasedproportionsofleaf-bearingplantsinArcticregionsmaypromotethis‘forestpumpeffect’fromatmospheretosoil.

2. Windfieldsandwindspeed.POPsmigrationthroughtheatmosphereisdrivenbywindsand,

therefore,higherwindspeedsleadtofasterandmoreeffectivetransportofPOPs.Consequently,higherlevelsofPOPsareexpectedinregionsdownwindofrelevantprimaryandsecondarysources.Thatis,northeastofEuropeinSiberiaandtheArctic;southeastofmainlandAsiainthetropicalPacificOcean;andinnorthernCanadaandGreenland.ModelprojectionsoffutureclimatechangescenariossuggesthigherPOPsconcentrationsinairinregionsdownwindoftheirprimarysources(seeChapter2).Inthecontextofdecadalorlongertime-scaleclimatechange,changesinthemagnitudeanddirectionofglobalwindsasaconsequenceofclimatechangearemoredifficulttoassessbecausesuchchangesarenotreadilymeasurable.Rather,theevidenceforlinkagesbetweenPOPscirculationandchangingwindfieldshascomefromrelationshipsbetweenPOPstransportandwindflowsoratmosphericcirculationassociatedwithinter-annualtime-scaleclimatevariation,notablytheNorthAtlanticOscillation(nAO),theElNiño-SouthernOscillation(enSO),andtheArcticOscillation(AO)intheNorthernHemisphere(Maetal.,2004a;Macdonaldetal.,2005;MacLeodetal.,2005;Beckeretal.,2008).AnomalouschangesintheseatmosphericcirculationmodesaltertheintensityandpositionofmajormeridionalorlongitudinalwindstreamsintheNorthernHemisphericatmosphere.Thismightenhancethemeridionalorpolewardatmospherictransport.Someoftheseclimatevariations(e.g.,nAO)alsoexhibitinter-decadalchangesthathavebeenlinkedtoglobalwarming(Hoerlingetal.,2001).TheassociationbetweenPOPslevelsintheatmosphereandtheseclimatevariations(e.g.,nAO)arelikelytocontainasignatureoftheeffectofdecadalorlongertime-scaleclimatechangeonlong-rangeatmospherictransportofPOPs(Gaoetal.,2010).ClimatechangeinduceddesertificationmightalsoleadtogreaterdistributionofPOPsthroughdusttransportassociatedwithchangingwindfields.

3. Precipitation.Precipitationismostlikelytobeimportantattheregionalscale:inregionswithincreasedprecipitation,depositionofPOPsfromairtosurfacemediawillincrease;inregionswithandduringtimesoflowornoprecipitation,airbornePOPswillbetransportedmoreeffectively.Precipitationprojectionsinclimatechangedifferconsiderablyaroundtheglobe,indicatingbothdecreasing(e.g.,20%reductionfrommean)andincreasing(e.g.,40%increasefrommean)trends

SwimmingPolarBear,Svalbard


asreportedbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(iPCC,2007).AmainimpactofthechangesinprecipitationonPOPsconcentrationsiscausedbychangesinwetdeposition.AnotherfactoristheeffectofchangingprecipitationonsoilmoistureandmicrobialcommunitiesinthesoilthatbiodegradePOPs.

4. Oceancurrents.ModificationsofoceancurrentspossiblyoccurringunderclimatechangewillalsoaffectthetransportofPOPs.Itismainlytheenvironmentalfateofmorewater-solublechemicals,suchasperfluorinatedacids,thatwillbeaffectedbymodificationsofoceancurrents(Pavlov,2007;PavlovandPavlova,2008;Yamashitaetal.,2008).

5. Meltingofpolaricecapsandmountainglaciers.Oceanicemeltingwillresultinair-waterexchangeofPOPsinlargeareasoftheArcticoceanswhentheyarenolongericecovered.MeltingiceleadsalsotoreleaseofPOPstrappediniceinpolarandalpineglaciers,aswellastoalossofpermafrost,enablingair-soilexchangeofPOPs.Forexample,duringthepastfiveyearsthelevelsofHCBattheZeppelinstation(Ny-Ålesund,Spitsbergen,Norway)havebeenincreasing(Hungetal.,2010).Todate,suchanincreaseinHCBconcentrationhasonlybeenobservedattheZeppelinstation;nosimilartrendsarereportedfromanyotheratmosphericmonitoringsites(Hungetal.,2010).TheincreasingHCBlevelsmaybeexplainedbyincreasedevaporationofHCBfromtheopenocean(includingduringtheArcticwinter)alongthewesterncoastofSpitsbergen(Svalbard,Norway),whichhasbeenice-freeduringintheperiod2004to2009.Similarlyforα-hexachlorocyclohexane(α-HCH),itisexpectedthatthecentralArcticOcean,whichcurrentlyisconsideredover-saturatedwithα-HCHcomparedtotheair(Jantunenetal.,2008;Hansenetal.,2009),willserveasadirectsourcewhentheicecapdisappearsonaseasonalbasis(aspredictedinvariousclimatechangescenarios).MobilizationofPOPsfrommountainglaciericehasalreadybeenobserved(Blaisetal.,2001;Bogdaletal.,2009).Itisalsowidelyexpectedthatseaicemeltingwillfacilitatemoreshiptrafficandoilandgasexploration,whichwillprobablycauseincreaseddirectorindirectreleasesofPOPs(ACiA,2005;Macdonaldetal.,2005).TourismandthesizeofresidentpopulationsmayalsoincreaseintheArcticastheclimateinthisregionmoderates,leadingtoincreasedPOPreleasestoair,waterandsoils.

6. Frequencyofextremeevents.Morefrequentextremeweathereventssuchasheatwaves,storms,floodsandforestfiresareprojectedtooccurasaresultofglobalwarming(iPCC,2007).ExtremeweathereventshaveadocumentedimpactontheremobilizationandsubsequentbioavailabilityofPOPs.IthasbeenshownthatconcentrationsofcertainPOPs,shortlyafterhurricanesand

CalvingIceberg,DiskoBay,Greenland


storms,wereelevatedseveralfoldlocallyinsoils,sedimentsandrunoffwaters(BurgoaandWauchope,1995;Presleyetal.,2005).Also,floodingevents,whichoccurfrequentlyintemperateregionsofEurope,theAmericas,AsiaandAfrica,maysignificantlycontributetore-emissionandredistributionofPOPsformerlystoredinsedimentandagriculturalsoils.Recentstudiesinvestigatingtheeffectsoffloodingeventsonlong-termremobilizationoflegacyPOPsillustratethepotentialoftheseeventsforreactivatingformerlydepositedpollutants(Wilkenetal.,1994;Holoubeketal.,2007;Pulkrabovaetal.,2008;Weberetal.,2008a).

7. Degradationandtransformation.HighertemperatureswillprobablyleadtoincreaseddegradationofPOPs;thisisprobablymostrelevanttoreservoirsofPOPsinsoils,vegetationandseawater.However,itisnotcleartowhatextentthecapacityofmicroorganismstodegradePOPswillincreasewithincreasingtemperatureandwhethermicroorganismswillexperiencethermalstressunderwarmingclimate.Inair,strongerirradiationinregionswithlesscloudcoverandrainleadstohigherphotolyticirradiationandhigherconcentrationofOHradicalsinair,whichincreasesthedegradationofairbornechemicals.Inaddition,degradationofPOPsoftenincludesformationoftransformationproductsthatarestructurallysimilartotheparentcompoundandmayalsobesimilarlytoxicandpersistent.Anexampleisdde(dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene),ahighlypersistenttransformationproductofddT(Schenkeretal.,2007).AlthoughtheeffectoftemperatureontransformationanddegradationofPOPsisexpectedtobelessimportantthantheeffectoftemperatureonpromotingprimaryandsecondaryemissionsofPOPs(seeChapter2andLamonetal.,2009),theeffectoftemperatureontransformationanddegradationastheclimatechangesisveryuncertain.

8. Partitioning.ClimatechangecanaffectpartitioningofPOPsbetweenavailablephasesinenvironmentalcompartmentsindifferentways.AkeyfactoristheincreaseinthevaporpressureofPOPswithincreasingtemperature.Thisaffectspartitioningbothbetweenbulkphases(airvs.surfacemediasuchassoil,waterandvegetation)andbetweenthegaseousandparticle-boundphasesinair.Asaresult,strongeremissionsfromprimaryandsecondarysourcesandashifttowardshighergaseousfractionsinairmaybeobserved.AllofthesefactorsmakePOPsmoreavailableforlong-rangetransport.Theamountofparticulatematterinenvironmentalcompartmentsmayalsobeincreasedbyclimatechangeandaffectthemobilityofparticle-associatedPOPs.Intheatmosphere,temperatureincreasemayenhancetheformationofsecondaryatmosphericparticulatematterbyacceleratingchemicalreactions(Forsteretal.,2007).Moreover,ahighertemperatureofsurfacewatermayincreaseprimaryproductionleadingtoincreasedparticulateorganicmatter(Macdonaldetal.,2005;Carrieetal.,2010).Themeltingofsea-icecoverislikelytofurtherenhanceprimaryproductivityasaresultoftheimprovedlightregime.SuchchangeswouldenablealargerfractionofthePOPstobeassociatedwithparticulatematterinairandwater.Intuitively,theatmospherictransportofPOPstoremoteregionsmaybereducedduetotemporaryorpermanentdepositiontosurfaces.However,moreassociationofPOPswithparticulatemattermayalsoresultindecreasedphotodegradationduringtransittoremoteregionsandthusincreasethelong-rangetransportpotentialofPOPs(Scheringer,1997;Macdonaldetal.,2005).Additionally,modifiedwindfieldsandhigherwindspeedsareexpectedtopromoteatmospherictransportofairborneparticlesandassociatedPOPsandmight,therefore,counteractincreaseddepositionofPOPs.Increasedparticulateorganicmatterinsurfacewaterswouldleadtoareductionoffreelydissolvedwaterconcentrationsandincreasedtransferstobenthicsedimentswithimplicationsforlong-rangewatertransport.

9. Biotictransport.Alteredmigrationpatternsofcontaminatedspecies(e.g.,fishandseabirds)maycausefuturetransportofPOPstopreviouslyuncontaminatedregions(Macdonaldetal.,2005;Blaisetal.,2007).Somerecentstudieshavesuggestedthat,nexttoatmosphericandoceanictransport,biotictransportofbioaccumulativecontaminants(e.g.,fromguanoofArcticandAntarcticseabirdsanddeathofmigratingsockeyesalmon)maybeofrelevance(Bard,1999;Krümmeletal.,2003;Blaisetal.,2005,2007;Geiszetal.,2008).

Inadditiontothefactorsdiscussedabove,thereareadditionalelementsofclimatechangethatarelikelytoaffecttheenvironmentalfateofPOPs.Oneisincreasingsoilerosion,whichincreasesmobilizationofPOPspresentinsoilsandtheirtransfertorivers,lakesandoceans(ACiA,2005).


Anotherelementischangesinthesalinityoftheseawater.Salinityispredictedtoincreaseinseveralregionsoftheworld’soceansandtodecreaseinothers(iPCC,2007).ChangesinsalinitychangethesolubilityofPOPsinwaterand,thereby,alsoair-waterpartitioning(POPsarelesssolubleinwaterifsalinityishigher).InfluencesofsalinitychangesonthetoxiceffectsofPOPsareaddressedinsection5.2.3.

ThereareseveralimportantgapsincurrentunderstandingoftheimpactsofclimatechangeontheenvironmentalfateandtransportofPOPs.First,forallPOPsthereisatransitionfromaregimethatisdominatedbyprimarysourcestoaregimewheresecondarysourcesdominatetheenvironmentaldistribution,levelsandtrends(Nizzettoetal.,2010).PrimarysourcesarestilldominantforPCBs,whereassecondarysourceshavealreadybeenobservedforHCBandHCHs(seeitem1above).ItiscurrentlynotknownhowclimatechangewillaffecttherateofthistransitionfromprimarytosecondarysourcesfordifferentPOPsandinwhichwaythecapacityofimportantenvironmentalreservoirs(oceanwaterandsoilsintemperateandpolarregions)thataccommodatePOPswillchange.AsecondfieldwithmajoruncertaintiesisthereactionofmicroorganismsinsoilstochangingtemperatureandsoilhumidityandhowthiswillaffectthecapacityofsoilsforbiodegradationofPOPs.Finally,aswithallaspectsofclimatechange,itisgenerallymoredifficulttopredictchangesinthefateofPOPsonregionalscalesthatmightbecausedbychangesinland-use,soilcomposition,andextentofprecipitationandirrigation.Mostimportantly,changesintransportandfateofPOPsasaresultofclimatechangewillhavedirectconsequencesforexposureofwildlifeandhumanstoPOPs(seeChapter4).

3.3. Conclusions

TheenvironmentalfateofPOPsattheglobal,regionalandlocalscalewillbeaffectedbynumerousfactorsrelatedtoclimatechange.ThemaineffectsofclimatechangeonthefateofPOPsindicatedbythecurrentscientificknowledgeinclude:

1. IncreasedmobilizationofPOPsfromenvironmentalreservoirs(e.g.,soils,glaciers,theArcticOcean)byincreasedtemperature,extremeweathereventssuchasflooding,andincreasederosion.

2. Increasedairbornetransporttolocationsdownwindofmainemissionareasbecauseofhigherwindspeeds(mainlyrelevantontheregionalscale).

3. EnhanceddegradationofPOPs(undertheassumptionthathighertemperatureleadstohigherdegradationcapacityofmicroorganisms),butalsoincreasedformationofpotentiallyPOP-liketransformationproducts.

4. Changesindepositionpatternsduetochangingprecipitationpatterns(spatiallyandtemporally),mainlyrelevantonthelocaltoregionalscale.

ThemostimportantresearchneedsassociatedwithclimatechangeandthefateofPOPsinclude: 1. BettercharacterizationofprimaryandsecondarysourcesofPOPs(thisishighlyrelevantforthe

predictionoffuturelevelsandtrendsandfortheinterpretationofmonitoringdata). 2. BetterunderstandingofthemolecularfateofPOPsandespeciallythereactionofmicroorganisms

insoilandwatertoPOPsandclimatechangeand,inparticular,highertemperature(i.e.,willmetabolicactivityandtherebythecapacitytodegradePOPsincreasewithrisingtemperatureorwillthermalstressreducethecapacityofmicroorganismstodegradechemicals).

3. IdentificationoftransformationproductsofPOPsthatmaybeformedinrelevantamountsundertheconditionsofclimatechangeandtheirimpactsorpotentialimpactsonthehealthofecosystemsandhumanpopulations.

Thekeypolicyrecommendationisthatpoliticalandfinancialsupportbeprovidedforlong-termPOPmonitoringprogramsinallregionsoftheworld.

IMPACTOFCliMATeCHAnGeOnexPOSUreTOPOPSFOrwildliFeAndHUMAnS 21

Chapter 4. Impact of climate change on exposure to POP s for wildlife and humans IAnT.COUSinS,DeGUOKOnGandROBinVeSTerGren

4.1. Introduction Drawingonpreviouslypublishedstudies,includingmodelforecasts,thischapteraimsto

determineif,andtheextenttowhich,exposuretowildlifeandhumanswillalterasaresultofclimatechange.Thegeographicalscopeofthischapterisglobal,althoughclimatechangeeffectsmaybemorepronouncedonregionalscales.TheArcticisanareaparticularlysensitivetoclimatechangeandmanyexamplesinthechapteraretakenfromthisregion.Theissuescoveredinthischapterareimportantbecausetheyaffectthetrendsinhumanexposurelevels,andoneofthetwocoremediaoftheGMPundertheStockholmConventionishumantissues.ThepurposeoftheGMPistomonitorspatialandtemporalchangesinPOPslevelsincoremediatodeterminetheeffectivenessofregionalandglobalcontrolmeasuresforPOPs.Itisimportanttobeabletoattributetherelativeweightofdifferentprocessesinexplainingchangesinconcentrationincoremediaasaresultof(i)climatechange;(ii)controlmeasuresrecommendedbytheStockholmConvention;or(iii)otherfactorssuchasaccidents,warortechnologicalbreakthroughs,sothatcorrectconclusionsaredrawnwhenconductinganeffectivenessevaluationoftheConventionandevaluatingtheneedfornewmanagementstrategiestocontrolPOPs.

Chapter3containsinformationonhowclimatechangeisexpectedtoalterconcentrationsinenvironmentalexposuremedia(e.g.,air,water,soils,sedimentsandvegetation).Thatdiscussionwillnotberepeatedhere,butitisworthemphasizingthatchangesinPOPstransportandfateasaresultofclimatechangewillhavedirectconsequencesforexposureofwildlifeandhumanstoPOPs.BecausehumanandwildlifeexposuretomostPOPsisthroughenvironmentalmedia,apredictedchangeinexternalPOPconcentrationswillcauseanassociatedchangeininternalconcentrationsinwildlifespeciesandhumanpopulations.

PolarBearsatGarbageDump,

Churchill,Canada


ThischapterbuildsonChapter3byaddressingthepotentialclimatechangeeffectsonexposuretoPOPsthatarenotassociatedwithchangesinexternalenvironmentalexposureconcentrations.Itisdividedintothreeparts:thepossibleeffectsofclimatechangeonwildlifeexposure;thepossibleeffectsofclimatechangeonhumanexposure;andasectionhighlightingdatagapsandrecommendationsforfutureresearch.Table4.1summarizestheclimate-inducedimpactsonwildlifeandhumanexposureand,wherepossible,providesanindicationofwhetherexposureofwildlifeandhumansarelikelytoincreaseordecreaseasaresultofthespecifiedclimate-inducedimpact.Itisimportanttoremember,however,thatconcentrationsofmostregulatedPOPsareexpectedtofallasaresultofemissionreductionmeasures.However,thismaynotcontinuetobethecaseinthefutureforallPOPsifclimatechangeleadstogreaterprimaryandsecondaryreleases(seeChapter3).Consequently,whenitisconcludedthatexposurewillincreaseordecreaseasaresultofclimatechange,thechangeisonlyrelativetoexposurethatwouldhaveoccurredwithouttheclimatechangeeffect.HealtheffectsresultingfromPOPexposurearenotincludedhereastheseareaddressedinChapter5.

Table4.1Climate-inducedimpactsonthePOPsexposureofwildlifeandhumans.

Climatechange-inducedimpact ImpactsonPOPexposure SourceInwildlife Inhumans

Alteredexternalenvironmentalexposure

+/- +/- SeeChapter4

Changeinfoodwebstructure

Bottom-up(aquatic)

+/- +/- Macdonaldetal.,2003,2005

Bottom-up(terrestrial)

+/- +/- Macdonaldetal.,2005

Top-down(aquaticandterrestrial)

+/- +/- Macdonaldetal.,2003,2005

Earlierarrivalofmigrantspecies

+/- +/- Waltheretal.,2002

Arrivalofinvasivespecies

+/- +/- Occhipinti-Ambrogi,2007;Moore,2008;MooreandHuntington,2008

Increasedinternaluptake + + Lydyetal.,1999;Buchwalteretal.,2003

Increasedmetabolism - - Maruyaetal.,2005;Buckmanetal.,2007;Patersonetal.,2007

Increasedremobilizationduetostarvation

+ Cherryetal.,2009

Changinggrowthratesinorganisms

+/- Peltonenetal.,2007

Increasedtimespentindoorsorinurbanareas

+ Jawardetal.,2004;Bohlinetal.,2008;Schecteretal.,2009

IncreasedusageofddTformalariacontrol

+ Ritteretal.,2011

Wastesiteleakageduetopermafrostthawingandrisingsealevels

+ Gilmanetal.,2009a

Humandietchangescausedbyfoodbeingsuppliedfromdifferentgeographicallocations

+/-

+Indicatesincrease;-indicatesdecrease;anemptycellindicatesnoinformation.

4.2. Exposure of wildlife

Bioaccumulationisthephenomenonbywhichchemicalsreachhigherconcentrationsinbiotarelativetothemediainwhichtheydwell.Forexample,POPssuchasPCBscanreachconcentrationsinahightrophiclevelfishthataremanyhundredthousandtimestheconcentrationsthatarepresentinthewaterinwhichthatfishswimsandmaybeathousandtimeshigherthanthelevelsfoundinamid-trophiclevelfishthatitconsumes.ThebioaccumulationprocessesforPOPsin


aquaticandterrestrialwildlifespeciesarecomplex(GobasandMorrison,2000;MackayandFraser,2000)andthecomplexityoftheprocessesofferstheopportunityforclimatechangetoactinsubtleways(Macdonaldetal.,2005).Biomagnificationismadeupoftwoprocessestermedbioconcentrationandbioaccumulation.Bioconcentrationispartitioningofasubstancefromtheexternalexposuremediumintothetissuesoftheorganism.Forhydrophobic/lipophiliccompoundsitisthepartitioningfromenvironmentalmediaintolipidsthatprimarilycausesthehighconcentrationsobservedinwildlife.Bioaccumulation,especiallydietaryaccumulationisthecauseofadditionalaccumulationinorganismsofthenexttrophiclevelresultinginanincreaseinchemicalconcentrationupthefoodchainandacrosstheupperfoodweb(i.e.,biomagnification).ModelingtoolsareavailableandhavebeenusedtopredictbioaccumulationforspecificPOPsinwildlife(Clarketal.,1990;Thomannetal.,1992;Gobasetal.,1993;CampfensandMackay,1997).Inprinciple,thesemodelscanalsobeusedtopredicthowbioaccumulationwillalterasaresultofclimatechange.ItisnecessarytounderstandhowtrophicstructureandPOPprocesseswithinorganismsarelikelytochangeasaresultofclimatechangeprocessesinordertounderstandhowbiomagnificationofPOPsinfoodwebsmaychange.

4.2.1. Changes to food web or trophic structure

ChangesinfoodwebstructuremayhaveimportantconsequencesforthebiomagnificationsofPOPsinfoodwebs.Thesechangesmayoccurvianumerousprocesses.Atthesimplestlevel,trophicstructurechangescanoccurintwofundamentallydifferentways,eitherfromthe‘bottom-up’,orfromthe‘top-down’.

Inaquaticsystems,bottom-upcontrolledchangesare,forexample,changesinprimaryorsecondaryproductivity,whichoccurasaresultofchangesinstratification,nutrientsupply,lightintensityoricecover,thatleadtolarge-scaleconsequencesforhighertrophiclevelorganisms.Itisknown,forexample,thatmarinephytoplankton(primaryproducers)affecttheabundanceanddiversityofmarineorganisms,drivemarineecosystemfunctioningandsettheupperlimitsforfisheryyields(RytherandYentsch,1957;Behrenfeldetal.,2006;Hensonetal.,2010).Climatechangeislikelytoimpactonphytoplanktonabundance,butwhetheritwilldecreaseorincreaseabundanceinspecificregionsischallengingtopredict.Long-termmonitoringstudiesofphytoplanktonabundanceusingsatelliteremotesensinghavereportedbothincreasesanddecreasesinphytoplanktonabundance(GreggandConkright,2002;Antoineetal.,2005;Greggetal.,2005;Behrenfeldetal.,2006).Theseobservedchangesinphytoplanktonabundancevaryspatiallybetweenoceanregionsandalsodisplaylargeinter-annualanddecadal-scaletemporalvariability.Changesinprimaryandsecondaryproductionwillhaveamajoreffectontheproductionoforganismsathighertrophiclevels,butthecomplexityofthetrophicsystemsleadingfromprimaryproductiontohighertrophiclevelorganisms(e.g.,fish)makesitdifficulttoestablishpredictiverelationships(RichardsonandSchoeman,2004).Nevertheless,assuggestedbyMacdonaldetal.(2003),itisconceivablethatbottom-upchangesintrophicstructurecouldresultinorganismsbeingpushedhigherorlowerintheireffectivetrophiclevelsandresultinexposurestoPOPsbeingalteredbyafactorof5to10ineitherdirection.StudieswhichattempttodeterminehowchangesinprimaryproductioncouldaffectPOPsexposuretowildlifeinaquaticfoodwebshavebeenreportedbyBorgåetal.(2010)andCarrieetal.(2010).Borgåetal.(2010)usedaPOPfoodwebmodeltoconcludethatincreasedtemperaturecoupledwithincreasedparticulateorganicmatter(POM)inwaterwouldcauseareductionofthebioaccumulationpotentialofPOPsintheArcticmarinepelagicfoodchain.Thedecreasedbioaccumulation(orexposure)potentialofPOPsintheirstudyisprimarilycontrolledbythereductioninthebioavailablefractionofPOPs.TheassumptionofhigherPOMcausesadecreaseinthefreelydissolvedfractionofPOPs(whichisthefractionassumedtobebioavailable)asthesecompoundsstronglyassociatewithPOM.

AlthoughthestudyreportedbyBorgåetal.(2010)illustrateshowafoodwebmodelcanbeusedtoestimatetheconsequencesofclimatechangeonPOPexposure,itisconsideredthattheeffectsofclimatechangeonphytoplanktonabundanceandonfoodwebstructurearecurrentlytoopoorlyunderstoodtodothiswithanydegreeofconfidenceinthemodelpredictions.Forexample,contrarytotheassumptionsofBorgåetal.(2010),arecentstudy(Boyceetal.,2010)measuredadecreaseinprimaryproductivityintheArcticOceanoverthepastcentury.Theobserveddecrease


inprimaryproductivitywasassociatedwithlimitednutrientsupplycausedbytheincreasedstratificationofthesurfaceocean.Thewaythatprimaryproductivitywillreacttoclimatechangeisexpectedtobehighlyregionallyspecific.SomeregionsoftheArcticmayhaveincreasedprimaryproductivityasaresultofclimatechange(duetodecreasedicecoverandincreasedwarmthandsunlight)whereasothersmayshowdecreasesduetolimitednutrientsupply.Howfoodwebswillreacttothesechangesisuncertain;somefoodwebsmayexperiencedecreasedexposuretoPOPsassuggestedbyBorgåetal.(2010),whileothersmayexperienceincreasedexposuretoPOPsassuggestedbyCarrieetal.(2010).InthestudyreportedbyCarrieetal.(2010)itissuggestedthattheincreasinglevelsofcontaminantsobservedinanArcticbenthicfish(burbot,Lota lota)werelinkedtoincreasedprimaryproductionandrelatedsedimentationresultingfromclimatechange.TheauthorspostulatedthatrisingtemperaturesandreducedicecoverwillleadtoincreasedexposureofhightrophiclevelArcticfreshwaterbiotatocontaminants.Theirreasoningisthatgreateramountsofalgalorganicmatterarefoundinlakesandthuscancontributetoorganicmatter-boundPOPswhichmaydeposittosedimentsandincreasetheexposureoflocalaquaticbiotasuchasburbot.Carrieetal.(2010)andBorgåetal.(2010)bothstartedwiththesamepremisethatprimaryproductionwillincreaseasaresultofrisingtemperatures;however,theycometooppositeconclusionsregardingtheeffectincreasedprimaryproductionwillhaveonPOPsexposureofdifferentorganisms.ThetwostudiestogetherwouldsuggestthatincreasedprimaryproductivitywilldecreasePOPsexposuretopelagicorganisms,butincreaseexposuretobenthicfeedingorganisms.Thepresentauthorsjudgethesefindingstobeuncertain,duetothepaucityofstudies,andrecommendfurtherinvestigation.

Interrestrialsystems,bottom-upcontrolledchangesintrophicstructurecouldresultfromclimatechangeeffectsonvegetationabundance(biomassanddiversity).IntheArctic,forexample,organismsatthetopofthefoodwebthatcanadapttohabitatchanges(e.g.,Arcticfoxes,grizzlybearsandsomebirds),mayswitchbetweenterrestrialandaquaticfoodwebs,whichcouldlargelyaltertheirexposuretoPOPs(Macdonaldetal.,2005).AshiftfromaquatictoterrestrialfoodwebswouldbelikelytocauseadecreaseinPOPsexposurefortheseorganisms,althoughthemagnitudeofthedeclinewouldbePOPspecific(BrookandRichardson,2002;Kellyetal.,2004).Forwater-solublePOPssuchasperfluorooctanesulfonate(PFOS),highertemperaturesmayincreaseplantuptakebytranspiration,althoughthesechangesmaybeoffsetbytheeffectsofincreasedcarbondioxidethatcouldreducetheactivityofplantstomataandreduceplanttranspiration.BioavailabilityofPOPsinsoils(i.e.,ahigherproportionmaybeinthedissolvedphaseinsoil-water)mayincreasewiththepredicteddeclineinsoilorganiccarboncontent(Bellamyetal.,2005).

Top-downcontrolledchangeoccurswhenthepopulationsnearthetopofthefoodwebareinsomewayaltered.Awell-knownexampleoftop-downcontrolledchangeintheArcticfoodwebisthewidespreadlossoficecover,animportanthabitatformanyArcticspeciesincludingbears,seals,walrusandArcticcod(Macdonaldetal.,2005).Top-downcontrolinfoodwebslimitsthenumberofspeciesatlowertrophiclevelsthroughpredation.LossofpredatorspecieswillhaveimportantconsequencesforspeciesabundanceatlowertrophiclevelsandthusforPOPbiomagnification.Thecurrentshifttowardsanearlierspringbreak-upofseaiceinwesternHudsonBayhasresultedinpolarbearsshiftingtoamorepelagicdiet.ThisnotonlychangesthebioaccumulationofPOPsinpolarbears(McKinneyetal.,2009),butmayalsohaveimportantlong-termtop-downcontrolledeffectsonfoodwebstructure.Thesechangesintop-downcontrolmayfeedbacktocausefurtherchangesinPOPbioaccumulation.Anotherspecialcaseoftop-downchangecanoccurasaresultofhumanactivity.Anincreaseinhabitatlossduetoincreasedhumanoccupancy,anddeclineinspeciesdiversityduetoincreasedhuntingandfishing,mayresultinalterationofthefoodwebstructureandsubsequentlychangetheexposuretoPOPs(Bard,1999;Macdonaldetal.,2003,2005).

Abehavioral(phenological)changewithconsequencesforfoodwebstructureandPOPsexposureisthetimingofspringactivitiessuchastheearlierarrivalofmigrantbirdsandearlierbreedingofcarnivorousanimals.Forexample,birdsarrivingearliermaybepushedhigherorlowerthantheiroriginaltrophiclevel.Alteredmigrationpathwaysofmigratoryspecies(whales,fish,birds)aswellasactingasvectorsforPOPs(seeChapter3)canalsoaffectfoodwebstructure.Invasions


ofnewspeciesorextensionsofhabitatrangesofexistingspeciesfosteredbyclimatechangealsohavethepotentialtoalterfoodwebstructure.Climatechangemayalsofacilitateso-called‘regimeshifts’,definedasrapidreorganizationsofecosystemsfromonerelativelystablestatetoanotherandareoftenrelatedtochangesintheclimatesystem.Forexample,itisthoughtthataregimeshiftoccurredintheNorthSeaandBalticSeainthelate1980swithfairlyabruptchangesinseasurfacetemperatureandwindfield(Schrum,2001),whichhasbeenlinkedtochangesintheaquaticecosystemwithnegativeconsequencesforcodrecruitmentinbothseas(Brander,2010).

TemporaltrendsincontaminantlevelsinbiotamaybealteredbydietarychangesandthiscouldleadtoincorrectconclusionsbeingdrawnwhenevaluatingPOPmanagementstrategies(e.g.,emissionreduction).Forexample,ifaspeciesisforcedtostartfeedingatahighertrophiclevelthentemporaltrendsmaynotcontinuedownwardasexpected,evenifemissionshavebeenreduced.Conversely,incorrectconclusionsmaybereachedabouteffectivenessofmanagementstrategiesifaspeciesstartsfeedingatalowertrophiclevelandasharpdownwardtimetrendincontaminantlevelsisobserved.ExperimentalevidenceforhowdietarychangesinfluencetemporaltrendsinPCBshasbeenreportedbyHebertetal.(1997).

InastudybyMcKinneyetal.(2010),ithasbeenproposedthattemporalchangesincontaminantpatternsinthetissuesoftoppredatorscanbeusedtodeterminedietarychangesthatmayresultfromclimatechange.AdiposetissuewassampledfromthewesternHudsonBaysubpopulationofpolarbearsatintervalsfrom1991to2007toexaminetemporalchangesincontaminantpatternsofPCBandorganochlorinepesticides.Theauthorsexaminedtheinfluenceofyear(i.e.,agingor‘weathering’ofthecontaminantpattern),dietarytracers(carbonstableisotoperatios,fattyacidpatterns),andbiological(age/sex)grouponcongener/metaboliteprofiles.ItwasobservedthatpatternsofPCBs,chlordanes,andPBdeswerecorrelatedwithdietarytracersandbiologicalgroup,butonlyPCBandchlordanepatternswerecorrelatedwithyear.Itisconcludedthatcontaminantpatterntrendsmaybeusefulindistinguishingthepossibleroleofecological/dietarychangesoncontaminantburdensfromexpecteddynamicsduetoatmosphericsourcesandweathering.

4.2.2. Changes to POP processes within organisms

ItisrecognizedthatawarmerclimatewillaffectthetoxicokineticsofPOPswithinpoikilothermic(cold-blooded)organismssuchasinvertebrates,fishes,amphibiansandreptilesbydirectlyenhancingtheinternaluptakeingillsandtheintestines(Lydyetal.,1999;Buchwalteretal.,2003)andmetabolism(Maruyaetal.,2005;Buckmanetal.,2007;Patersonetal.,2007).IncreasedmetabolismduetohighertemperaturesisonlyexpectedtobeofminorimportanceinmodulatingexposureandeffectsformostPOPs,whicharebydefinitionnotsusceptibletodegradationprocesses.Whereitdoesoccur,enhancedmetabolismcouldleadtoanincreasedexposuretotoxicmetabolitesduetobiotransformationofPOPs(Maruyaetal.,2005;Buckmanetal.,2007;Patersonetal.,2007).

Sometoppredatorsmayundergoperiodsofenforcedfastingrelatedtoclimatechange(Cherryetal.,2009).AwellknownexampleisthepolarbearsinHudsonBaywhichareunabletohuntsealsduringthespringduetothechangesinthespringice-climatewhichaffectsfoodavailability.LongerperiodsofstarvationduetochangesinicecoverwouldleadtohigherinternalexposureofPOPsreleasedfromfatreserves.

ChangesingrowthratesinorganismscanaffectthebioaccumulationofPOPsandcanleadtoincorrectconclusionsbeingdrawnwhenevaluatingPOPmanagementstrategies.Forexample,extremelylargechangeshaveoccurredinthegrowthofBalticherring(Clupea harengus membras)overthepastfewdecadesduetochangesinplanktonabundance(Peltonenetal.,2007).Althoughthereisnoevidencethatclimatechangehascausedthesechangesinherringgrowthrates,itisnotinconceivablethatclimatechangecouldcausesimilareffects.SomepopulationsofBalticherringhavemuchlowergrowthratesthanpreviouslyobserved,whichmaybeoneofthereasonswhylevelsofPOPsinBalticherringhavenotdeclinedinrecentyears(Peltonenetal.,2007)despitereductionsinPOPsloadingstotheBalticSea.


4.3. Exposure of human populations

Humansareexposedtochemicalpollutantsthroughingestionoffood,drinkingwateranddust,andtoalesserextent,throughinhalationofambientandindoorairandparticulates.MostPOPsarehydrophobicandlipophilicandhavelowvaporpressure,thusdietdominatesbackgroundhumanexposure.Thisdietaryexposurewillbeaffectedbyanyclimate-relatedchangesinthestructureofrelevantfoodwebs.Thecontrollinginfluenceoffoodwebstructureonhumanexposureissupportedbyarecentstudywhichconcludedthatfoodwebstructureisfarmoreimportantthanotherenvironmentalcharacteristics(e.g.,temperature,precipitation)fordeterminingthepotentialhumanexposureofchemicals(Undemanetal.,2010).Ritteretal.(2009)havedevelopedamodelforestimatingmulti-individualhumantimetrendsforlevelsofpollutantsaftertheyhavebeenbanned.

Inadditiontothedietarybackgroundexposure,somehumanpopulationsareexposedtohigherlevelsofPOPsduetoproximitytopointsources(manufacturingorwastesites)orduetooccupationalexposure.ForafewPOPspresentincommercialproducts,suchasbrominatedflameretardantsandperfluorinatedcompounds(Bohlinetal.,2008;Schecteretal.,2009)exposureviaindoorairanddusthasbeenidentifiedasbeingimportantforlowbackgroundexposuresinhumanpopulations,andofmoreimportanceforchildrenlivingclosetofloorsurfaces(Wilfordetal.,2005;Lorber,2008;Johnson-RestrepoandKannan,2009).Indevelopingcountries,wherehousesaresometimessprayedforcontrolofdisease-carryinginsects,indoorhumanexposuretoddTviainhalationisimportant(Singhetal.,1992;Ritteretal.,2011),althoughnon-POPalternativestoddTmaybeusedinthefuture.

Asaresultofclimatechange,humanpopulationsinindustrialregionscouldreceiveahigherproportionoftheirfutureexposurethroughinhalationofoutdoorairgiventhatthepercentageofPOPspartitioningtoairinsourceregionswherehumanpopulationsresidearepredictedtoincreasewithincreasingtemperature(seeChapter3).However,concentrationsofmostregulatedPOPsarefallingasaresultofemissionreductionmeasuresandthiswillprobablycontinuetobethecaseintotheforeseeablefuture.Nevertheless,itisnotclearwhetheroverallhumanexposuretotheseregulatedPOPswilldecrease,becauseagreaterfractionofPOPswillbedistributedtotheatmosphereasclimatechanges.Therelativeproportionsofindoorandoutdoorexposuremayalsobeinfluencedbyclimatechange.Inwarmregions,humansmayspendmoretimeindoorsas

Motherandbabyprotectedby

mosquitonet,Kenya


aresultofwarming(i.e.,movetocoolerair-conditionedenvironments),whereasincoolerregionshumansmaybeinclinedtospendmoretimeoutdoors.ThiscouldbeimportantforoverallhumanexposuretosomePOPs(e.g.,PCBs,PBdes,PFOS)whereindoorairconcentrationsareonetotwoordersofmagnitudehigherthanoutdoorvalues(Bohlinetal.,2008).

Thepopulationshiftfromruraltourbanenvironmentsinmanycountriesmayalsochangetheexposurepathwaysofthegeneralpopulation,withagreaterproportionofexposurecomingfromexposuretopollutedurbanair.Thismightbeconsideredasecondaryeffectofclimatechange(climate-forcedmigration),althoughitshouldbenotedthatthisisalsosocialchangerelatedtotheeconomyandmaybeonlypartiallyassociatedwithclimate.UrbanairconcentrationsofsomePOPsaremanytimeshigherthanruralconcentrations(Jawardetal.,2004).IndevelopingcountriesitispossiblethathighertemperatureswillincreaseabundanceandgeographicdistributionofmalariamosquitoesandthustheresultingincreaseduseofddTmayleadtohigherhumanexposureviainhalation(Singhetal.,1992).

AsclimatechangesandpermafrostthawsintheArctic,currentchemicallypollutedwastesitesmaybegintoleaktheircontentsintowatersystemsandlandwithconsequencesforhumanexposure.Localfoodspeciescouldalsobecomecontaminatedbysubstancesfromwastesites,leadingtopotentialincreasesinhumanexposuresdependingonthetypes,amountsandseasonalityoffooduse.Smallislands,whetherlocatedinthetropicsorathigherlatitudes,havecharacteristicswhichmakethemespeciallyvulnerabletotheeffectsofclimatechange,sea-levelrise,andextremeevents.Sea-levelrisesresultingfromclimatechangeareexpectedtoexacerbateinundationofcontaminatedlandsandwastemanagementsites,potentiallyincreasinghumanexposuretoPOPs.

SocialfactorscanalsoaffectPOPsexposure(Gilmanetal.,2009a).Althoughthetraditional/localfoodsofsomeArcticpopulationsareanexcellentsourceofnutrientsandenergyandcontributetogoodsocial,spiritualandphysicalhealth,theyarealsotheprimarysourceofPOPsexposure.Concernaboutcontaminants,changingculturalvalues,andthelackofavailabilityoftraditionally-huntedspeciesduetoclimatechange,allplayaroleininfluencingthetypesoftraditional/localfoodsconsumed,thefrequencyoftheirconsumption,andtheexposureofArcticpopulationstoPOPs(Vaktskjoldetal.,2009;Lougheed,2010).Itispossiblethatasaresultofclimatechange,humanpopulationsthatcurrentlyrelyontraditionaldietsoflocal/countryfoodswillmovetowardconsumptionofamoretypical‘western’diet,highincarbohydrates.Althoughitisequallypossiblethatwithincreasingdroughtandreducinggrainyields,otherhumanpopulationsmayneedtorelymoreonsubsistence/localfoods.Itisexpectedthatclimatechangewillhaveanimpactonfoodproduction(RosenzweigandParry,1994).Someregionsmaybecomelargelyinfertilewhileothersmaybeabletogrownewcropspreviouslyunsuitedtotheclimate.ThesechangesinfoodproductionpatternsmayhaveconsequencesforPOPsbioaccumulationandhumanexposure.

4.4. Conclusions

AsclimatechangealtersprimaryandsecondaryreleasesofPOPs,levelsandpatternsofexposureinwildlifeandhumanswillchange.Climatechangeisalreadyalteringfoodwebstructuresinsomeareas.ThiswillbeanaddedinfluenceontheexposureofwildlifeandhumanstoPOPs.

Therearelargeuncertaintiesconcerninghowclimatechangehasaffectedecosystemsandfoodwebstructuresinthepast,andhowthesewillbeaffectedinthefuture.DuetoinsufficientbaselineexposureinformationforPOPsinmanypartsofthedevelopingworldanduncertainclimateandecosystemresponsepredictionsonaregionalbasis,itisnotpossibletoestimateaccuratelythedirectionandextentofhowclimatechangemayimpactPOPsexposureforwildlifeandhumans.POPsexposureinwildlifecouldeitherincreaseordecreaseasaresultofclimatechangeandthechangesinexposure(relativetoascenarioinwhichtherewerenoclimatechangeinducedeffects)couldbeanorderofmagnitudeineitherdirection.Examiningthetemporalcontaminantpatternsintoppredatorsisapromisingmethodforstudyingthepossibleroleofchangesinecologyanddiet.


Giventhecomplexityofclimatechangeeffectsontrophicstructure,itisextremelychallengingtodevelopaccuratepredictivemodelsofecosystemchangeandcurrentlytherearenosuitablemodelsavailable.

4.5. Data gaps and recommendations for future research Currently,thereareonlyafewlong-termdatasetswhichcanbeusedforanalyzingtheclimate-

inducedimpactsonexposuretoPOPsinhumancohortsandwildlifetissues(Chan,1998;AMAP,2002;Maetal.,2004b;Hungetal.,2010;Rigétetal.,2010).Itisimportanttohaveagoodbaselinedatasetsothatpossiblefuturechangescanbeobserved.ItisthusessentialtocontinueexistingmonitoringprogramsofPOPsinhumancohortsandwildlife.ItisalsoimportanttoextendthemonitoringtoincludenewerPOPs,aswellassubstanceswithPOP-likecharacteristics,andtocoverdifferentregionsoftheworld,especiallytheArcticandAntarctic(whichareparticularlysensitivetoclimatechange),thedevelopingworld(wherecertainPOPsarestillwidelyused),andthoseregionswherelittlelong-termmonitoringcurrentlyexists.

Focusneedstobeplacedonstablelong-termmonitoringofthePOPslistedundertheStockholmConventionandonconcentrationsinhumanmilkandbloodplasma,whichareamongthepreferredmediaundertheGMP.AswellasmonitoringPOPslevels,itisalsoimportanttomonitorsocialchangessuchashumandietarychanges,inordertohelpdeterminethepossiblecausesofchangesinhumanexposure,andtomonitornewsourcesofPOPs,whetherregulatedornot,relatedtoindustrialactivityorexpandedusesofsomePOPsfordiseasevectorcontrol.

Researchonhowclimatechangeislikelytoaffectthetrophicstructureofecosystemsisneededtosupportthedevelopmentofpredictiveecosystem-scalemodels.Althoughpresentpredictionsoffoodwebchangesarehighlyuncertain,sensitivityanalysisofexistingbioaccumulationmodelsmaypresentopportunitiestopin-pointkeyparametersfordeterminingexposuretoPOPs.Ultimately,long-termecologicalmonitoringofplanktonandotherwildlifepopulationsisneededtounderpintheunderstandingoftrophicrelationships.

BioaccumulationinfoodwebsisnotwellunderstoodforallPOPs.Itisimportanttoimprovepredictivemodelsofbioaccumulationtobetterunderstandthelikelyimpactsofclimatechangewithrespecttolevelsinwildlifeandhumans.Modelsshouldbeevaluatedagainstmeasureddatabecauseitisimportanttohavewell-evaluatedmodelsofPOPsexposureundercurrentclimateconditionsbeforeitispossibletomodelexposureunderconditionsofachangingclimate.Themorewell-studiedPOPs(e.g.,PCBs)arecurrentlythebestcandidatesforconsiderationinclimate-changePOPmodelingexercises;however,POPmodelsshouldberefinedtomodelthosePOPsnotpreviouslystudied(e.g.,PFOS,whichisnotlipophilicandwhichbehavesdifferentlytothetraditionallegacyPOPs).

IMPACTOFCliMATeCHAnGeOnTOxiCOlOGiCAlAndeCOTOxiCOlOGiCAleFFeCTSOFPOPSexPOSUre 29

Chapter 5. Impact of climate change on toxicological and ecotoxicological effects of POP s exposure

AndrewGilMAnandBjørnMUnrOJenSSen

5.1. Introduction

Persistentorganicpollutantlevelsinglobalecosystemsarelikelytochangesignificantlyoverthenextthreedecadesduetochangesinuseandreleasepatterns,achangingclimateandclimatevariability(seeChapters2and3).ThechangesinPOPslevelswillnotbeuniformandsomeregionsmayexperiencenetreductionsandsomenetincreases.Therelativechangeswillaffectexposureofbiotaincludinghumanbeings(seeChapter4)eventhoughthedirectionofchangeisuncertainandmayimpacthealthandwellbeingofalllivingpopulations(e.g.,reproductivepotential,neurologicaldevelopment,behavior,cancerandotherdiseasesandadaptability).

ManyofthelegacyPOPshavesimilareffectsonbiologicalsystems.TheselegacyPOPsincludealdrin,chlordane,ddT,dieldrin,endrin,heptachlor,HCB,mirex,PCBs,PCdds,PCdFsandtoxaphene;all12listedintheoriginalAnnexA,BandCoftheStockholmConvention(seefootnotes1to3inChapter1).MostPOPspossessendocrinedisruptingproperties(seesection5.2.9)andseveralareconsideredtobepro-carcinogensorco-carcinogensformammals(seesection5.3.2);however,thesePOPsusuallyhavedifferentpotenciesandnotallspeciesrespondinthesamewaytothesameexposureofanygivenPOP.Inaddition,severalindividualPOPs,suchascyclodienepesticides,PCBs,chlorinateddibenzo-p-dioxins,chlorinateddibenzofuransandchlorobornanes(whichincludesthetechnicalproductmarketedastoxaphene)havehundredsofcongenersintheirindividualfamilieswhichcanbemetabolizedatdifferentratesandpossessdifferenttoxicpropertiesandpotencies(seereferencesinsection5.3).ToaddfurthertothecomplexityofanassessmentoftheeffectsofPOPsonbiota,includinghumans,istherealitythatnoenvironmentalexposuretoPOPsisevertoasinglechemical;environmentalexposuresarealwaystomixturesofPOPsbecausetheyco-occurinthefoodchain(Gilman,2003).

Exposuretopesticidescancausebirdstolay

eggswiththinnedshells,reducingthechance

ofsuccessfulhatching


FormostPOPs,knowledgeabouttheirindividualorcombinedtoxicityisderivedfromcontrolledlaboratorystudieswithfish,copepods,ratsandmice.Occasionallytestdataareavailableforcontrolledstudieswithwildlifespeciesincaptivity.Evenlesscommonlyavailableareadversehealtheffectsdataforexposedwildlifeorhumanpopulations(epidemiologicalstudies).

ThecomplexityofevaluatingtheeffectsofPOPsonpopulationsofanimalsorhumansishugebecauseofthecomplexityoftheindividualPOPsandtheircombinedpresenceintheenvironmentandalsobecauseofmultipleconfoundersofeffects.Confoundersforanimalpopulationsarediscussedinsection5.2;confoundersforhumanpopulationswhichincludelifestyleandculturalpractices,socio-economicstatus,generalhealth,dietandnutrition,education,geneticendowment,andotherswerediscussedbyGilmanetal.(2009a).Climatechangeandclimatevariability(e.g.,additionalheatstress,colderclimates,moreorlessrainfall,foodavailabilityandquality,availabilityofservicesandshelter,movementsofdisease-bearinginsectvectors)alsoactasfactorswhichcaninfluencethegeneralhealthorexposureofanimalandhumanpopulations.

ThischapterexaminesverybrieflythekeyadverseoutcomesassociatedwithPOPsexposureandtheinfluencesthatclimatechangemayhaveonwildlifeandhumanpopulationhealthasaresultofchangesinexposurestoPOPs.TheinformationonchangesinexposurecomesprimarilyfromChapter4.

5.2. Environmental health impacts

5.2.1. Effects of POP s and climate change in the environment

AlthoughithaslongbeenrecognizedthattemperatureaffectsthetoxicityandtoxicokineticsofPOPsinpoikilothermic(cold-blooded)animals,suchasinvertebrates,fishes,amphibiansandreptiles(Guthrie,1950;AndersonandPeterson,1969;MillerandOgilvie,1975;PowellandFielder,1982),itisnotuntilrecentlythattheconsequencesofclimatechangeontheenvironmentaltoxicityofchemicalpollutantshasreceivedattention(Jenssen,2006;Schiedeketal.,2007;Noyesetal.,2009).Climatechangemayresultinalterationsoftheenvironmentalfateofchemicalsaswellasinarangeofabioticfactors,suchassalinity,pHandultraviolet-radiationwhichhavebeenshowntoaffectbothuptakeandtoxicityofchemicalsinpoikilotherms(Huovinenetal.,2001;Wronaetal.,2006;Noyesetal.,2009;Kimetal.,2010).ItisalsoacknowledgedthatclimatechangemayhaveanimpactontheeffectsofPOPsinhomeothermic(warm-blooded)animals(Jenssen,2006;Noyesetal.,2009).ToxicPOPsandotherchemicalpollutantsmayinterferewithphysiologicalandbehavioralprocessesthatareimportantforanimalstoacclimateandadapttoclimatechange(ZalaandPenn,2004;Jenssen,2006;Noyesetal.,2009)andviceversa,climatechangemaymodulatephysiologicalprocessesinanimalswithconsequencesforchemicaluptake,metabolismandtoxicityintheorganisms(Heugensetal.,2002;Noyesetal.,2009).

Thereisevidencethatclimatechange,includingincreasedclimaticvariability,canaffectthebiodiversityandthusecosystemcompositionandfunctioning(Waltheretal.,2002;LovejoyandHannah,2005;PörtnerandKnust,2007;Parkeretal.,2008).Thus,climatechangewillcausealterationsintrophicstructures,foodsourcesandmigratorypatterns,whichwillinfluencebioaccumulationandbiomagnificationofsomePOPs(Schiedeketal.,2007;Noyesetal.,2009)(seeChapter4).Becauseofbioaccumulation,thisisprobablymostimportantfortoppredators,inwhichdifferentcontaminantlevelsmayeitherincreaseordecreaseduetoalterationsintrophicstructures.Climatechangemayalsoexposeorganismstopathogensanddiseasevectorsthattheyhavenotbeenpreviouslyencountered(Harvelletal.,2002),andPOPsthatcauseimmunosupressionmaymakeanimalsmoresensitivetoinfectiousdiseaseagents(Acevedo-WhitehouseandDuffus,2009).Furthermore,thereisconcernabouteffectsarisingfrommultiplestressors,includingexposuretoPOPsandclimatechange,inenvironmentswherespeciesare

livingattheedgeoftheirphysiologicaltolerance,suchasintheBalticSea,orinpolarand alpineregions(SchindlerandSmol,2006;Schiedeketal.,2007;Bustnesetal.,2008;Noyesetal.,

2009).


Sincemolecular,cellular,physiologicalandbehavioralprocessesinpoikilothermsarehighlyinfluencedbytemperature,climatechangecanmodulatetheeffectsofPOPsontheseprocesses.Furthermore,POPscaninteractwithphysiological,behavioralandecologicaladaptationstoclimatechange,andtherebyinfluencetheabilityoforganisms,populations,communitiesandecosystemstowithstandand/oradaptadequatelytoclimatechange(Jenssen,2006;Wingfield,2008).Thus,climatechangecanenhancethesensitivityoforganismsandecosystemstoPOPs.Inaddition,POPscanmodulatethevulnerabilityoforganismsandecosystemstoclimatechange-inducedvariationsofenvironmentalfactors.ThemajoreffectsaresummarizedinTable5.1.

Table5.1Climatechange-inducedecotoxicologicaleffectsofPOPs(modifiedfromNoyesetal.,2009).

Climatechange-inducedeffect Relationships/interactions(forsources,seeNoyesetal.(2009)andchaptertext)

Increasedtemperature ↑temperature=↑toxicity↑temperature=↑metabolicbiotransformationandpotentiallyalteredmetaboliteprofiles-Toxicantexposuremaylimitthecapacityofspeciesandpopulationstoacclimatetoalteredtemperatures-Pollutant-exposedanimalsattheedgeoftheirphysiologicaltolerancerangemaybeespeciallysensitivetotemperatureincreases

Alteredenvironmentalsalinity ↑salinity+POPexposure=↓osmoregulatoryabilities

DecreasedpH ↓pH+POPexposure=↑toxicityandendocrinedisruptiveeffects(?)

IncreasedUV-radiation ↑UV-radiation+POPs=↑toxiceffectsonmolecular,cellularendphysiologicalprocessesinplantsandanimals(?)

Increasedeutrophication ↑eutrophication=↑toxicalgalblooms-AlgaltoxinsmayinteractwithPOPs

Hypoxia ↓oxygentensioninwater=↑increaseintoxicityofPOPs(?)

Alteredecosystems(andnutritionalstatus)

-AlteredPOPsequestrationand/orremobilizationthroughshiftsinfoodsourcesandstarvationevents-Shiftsindiseasevectorrangeandseveritycoupledwithtoxicantexposureinhibitingimmuneresponsesmayleaveorganismsmoresusceptibletodisease-Lowlevelexposuresmayimpairorganismacclimationtoecosystemalterationsinducedbyclimatechange-ClimatechangeinducedchangesintrophicfoodwebsmayalterPOPbioaccumulationandbiomagnification

↑Indicatesanincrease;↓indicatesadecrease;(?)indicatesthattheeffectsarenotcertain.

5.2.2. Effects of temperature on toxicity and toxicokinetics

Sincepoikilothermicanimalsarehighlyaffectedbyambienttemperature,thetoxicityofPOPscaneitherbedecreasedorincreasedwithincreasingtemperature(Noyesetal.,2009).Inmostcases,thermalstresspotentiateschemicaltoxicity,andthisappearstorelatetotemperaturemodulationofchemicaluptakeandtotemperature-inducedshiftsinphysiologicalandmetabolicprocessesoftheexposedorganisms(Heugensetal.,2002;Noyesetal.,2009).Forinstance,thelethalityofdieldrintothefreshwaterdarter(Etheostoma nigrum)andthetoxicityofatrazinetocatfish(Ictalurus punctatus)increasedwithincreasingtemperatures(Silbergeld,1973;GauntandBarker,2000).Ontheotherhand,pyrethroidsandddTaregenerallymoretoxicatlowtemperatureconditions(Narahashi,2000).ExposuretosublethalconcentrationsofendosulfancausedsignificantreductionintheuppercriticaltemperaturetoleranceoffreshwaterfishinAustralia(Patraetal.,2007),asignificantconcerninviewofclimatechange.Similarly,freshwaterfishwereabletosurvivehigherconcentrationsofendosulfanatlowerwatertemperatures(Capkinetal.,2006).Asimilarresponsewasfoundwiththeeggsandlarvaeofthebollworm(Earias vitella);highertemperaturesandhigherhumidityincreasedthetoxicityofendosulfan(Satputeetal.,2007).

Temperature-dependentchangesinmetabolismcanmodulatethebiotransformationofPOPsbyanimals(Noyesetal.,2009).Forexample,inrainbowtrout(Oncorhynchus mykiss),biotransformationofPCBstothemoretoxichydroxylatedPCBmetabolitesispositivelyrelated


towatertemperature(Buckmanetal.,2007).Sincechangesinambienttemperaturewillnotalterthebodytemperatureofhomeothermicanimals,changesintheenvironmentaltemperaturewillprobablynotdirectlyinfluencetoxicityandtoxicokineticsinhomeotherms.However,POPsmayinterferewithphysiologicaladaptationstoheatorcoldstressintheseanimals.

Thesensitivityofanimals,particularlypoikilotherms,seemstobedependentontheenvironments,orbiomes,towhichtheyhaveadapted.Forsixchemicals(amongthosetheinsecticidechlordane),tropicalorganismstendedtobemoresensitivethantheirtemperatecounterparts(Kwoketal.,2007).However,forseveralothersubstances,especiallymetalsandddT,theoppositetrendwasnoted(DaamandvanderBrink,2010).

5.2.3. Effects of salinity on toxicity

Climatechangewillcauseshiftsinprecipitationandevaporationpatterns,terrestrialfreshwaterrun-offandicemeltandwillthuscausealterationinthesalinityofthesea(iPCC,2007).Salinitycaninfluencethechemicalitselfanditstoxicity,andthephysiologyoforganisms(Schiedeketal.,2007;Noyesetal.,2009).Thebioavailabilityoforganiccompoundsmayalsobealteredinsaltwaterascomparedtoinfreshwater(Noyesetal.,2009)(seeChapter3).Theincreasedtoxicityobservedatelevatedsalinityhasbeenattributedtohigherphysiologicalcostsfororganismstomaintainosmoregulation,leadingtoadeclineinfitnessandelevatedsensitivitytocontaminants(Noyesetal.,2009).POPsmayalsoalterosmoregulatoryfunctioninaquaticorganisms(Schiedeketal.,2007;Noyesetal.,2009).Effectsofalteredsalinityaremostlikelytoaffecttoxicityingill-breathinganimals(invertebratesandfish)thatneedtoosmoregulate.Astudyontheeffectsofcombinedtemperatureandsalinityonthetoxicityofcommonpesticidestothegrassshrimp(Palaemonetes pugio),demonstratedthattheresponseswerecomplexanddependedonboththeorganism’slifestageandthetypeofchemicalcontaminant(DeLorenzoetal.,2009).Amphibiansandmarinereptilesandbirds,whichalsoosmoregulatetoexcreteexcesssalt,arealsolikelytobevulnerabletothecombinedeffectsofPOPsandsalinitychangesrelatedtoclimatechange.

5.2.4. Effects of pH on toxicity

Owingtotheexpectedincreasedlevelsofcarbondioxide(CO₂)inthemarineenvironment,oceanacidificationisanexpectedoutcomeofclimatechange(Hoegh-GuldbergandBruno,2010).ObservedaccumulationofCO₂inthesurfaceseawaterduetotheincreaseofatmosphericCO₂sincepre-industrialtimeshasprobablyalreadycausedadecreaseofalmost0.1pHunits(HauganandDrange,1996).ReductionsofpH(andthefollowingreductionsinCO₂)inseawatermayhaveconsequencesformarinelife,especiallyshell-formingorganismsandcoralsthatrelyoncalcifiedstructures(MarubiniandAtkinson,1999;Feelyetal.,2004)andalsodeep-seaanimals(SeibelandWalsh,2003).ItiswellknownthatpHinteractswiththetoxicityofmetalsinaquaticorganisms(Florenceetal.,1992).However,thereappeartobefewreportsonhowpHaffectsthetoxicityofPOPs,andonhowoceanacidityinteractswithtoxicityofPOPs.SincenoclearrelationshipsbetweenoceanacidificationandPOPstoxicityhavebeendescribedsofar,thisissuemeritsfurtherconsideration.

5.2.5. Effects of UV-radiation on toxicity

ClimatechangecanalterexposureofanimalstoUV-radiation.ExposuretoUV-radiationcancausebiomolecular,cellularandphysiologicalalterationsinexposedplantsandanimals(Wronaetal.,2006),adeclineinfitnessandelevatedsensitivitytocontaminants.Inaddition,UV-radiationcanalterthechemicalstructureoftoxicants,renderingthemmoretoxicorlesstoxictoanimals(Noyesetal.,2009;Huovinenetal.,2001).Indeed,synergisticinteractionsofUV-radiationandcontaminantshavebeensuggestedtobeafactorinpopulationdeclinesofamphibians(Blausteinetal.,2003).Thereisevidencethatsomenon-persistentorganiccompoundsmayposeagreaterrisktoaquaticorganismswhenexposedtoultravioletlight(Macdonaldetal.,2005);however,noevidenceseemstobereportedforPOPs.


5.2.6. Effects of eutrophication on toxicity

Studiessuggestthatbioaccumulationandtrophictransferofsediment-associatedcontaminantswillincreasefollowingfreshorganicmatterinput,forexample,aftersedimentationofphytoplanktonblooms(GranbergandSelck,2007).LittleisknownabouttheeffectsofeutrophicationontoxicityofPOPs;however,toxinsfromphytoplanktonbloomsmayinteractwithtoxicantssuchasPOPs.

5.2.7. Effects of pO2 in water on toxicity

Factorssuchaseutrophicationmaycauseloweredoxygentensioninaquaticsystems.Higherwatertemperaturealsoreducestheoxygencontentinwater.Worldwide,anoxicandhypoxicareasinaquaticsystemshaveexpandedoverrecentdecades(DiazandRosenberg,1995,2001;Wu,1999),andthistrendprobablywillincreasewithclimatechange(Schiedeketal.,2007).AreassuchasinChile,Peru,CaliforniaandNamibiaareoftenaffectedbyminimumoxygenzones(MOZ),inparticularduringwaterupwelling.Itisanticipatedthatglobalwarmingwillincreasetheseminimumoxygenzonesduetoincreasedrainfallandtemperature(Harleyetal.,2006).Inmanycoastalareasandestuaries,hypoxiaisacommonfeatureduringlowtidesandusuallythespecieshaveadaptedsuccessfullytocopewithlowoxygenconditions,switchingtoanaerobicenergyproduction(ZebeandSchiedek,1996).

ThereislittlebackgroundinformationontheeffectsoflowoxygenlevelsontoxicityofPOPs.Exposureofanimalstowatercontaininglessoxygenmayincreaseoverall‘stress’forthatspecies;howeverthereislittlehardevidenceforthisassumption.Matsonetal.(2008)havereportedthatinfish,hypoxicconditionsmayinfluencethetoxicityofcompoundswhereasBrianetal.(2009)foundthatacombinedexposuretohypoxiaandendocrinedisruptingcontaminantscausednoeffects.AlteredenvironmentaloxygenlevelscanindirectlyaffectPOPstoxicityinthattheychangeventilationandmetabolicratesofgill-breathinganimals.

5.2.8. Effects of nutritional status on toxicity

Climatechangewillcausealterationsintrophicstructuresand,thus,alterthefoodcompositionofwildlife.Hence,thenutritionalstatusofanimalsmaybecomealtered.Forinstance,polarbearsmayencounterlongfastingperiodsduetochangesinicecoverageandfoodavailability(Cherryetal.,2009).Thecurrentshifttowardsanearlierspringbreak-upoftheseaiceinwesternHudsonBay,hasresultedinashifttowardsamorepelagicdietinpolarbearsandaresultantchangeinbioaccumulationofPOPs(McKinneyetal.,2009).IthasbeenestablishedthatthenutritionalstatusoforganismsmayinfluencetheoutcomeofthetoxiceffectsofPOPs(Majkovaetal.,2008).

Relationshipsbetweenclimatechange,POPsaccumulationandadverseresponsesofbiotacanbecomplex.Forinstance,Bustnesetal.(2008)examinedtherelationshipbetweenenvironmentalconditions,organochlorinebodyburdensandfitnessparametersofthreemarinebirdcolonies.Theyobservedthatfoodavailabilityhadadirectinfluenceonbodycondition,andthatbodyconditionwasrelatedtoorganochlorinebodyburdensandreproductivefitnessoftheanimals.

5.2.9. Effects of POP s on adaptation to climate change

Toacertainextent,animalscanrespondtoclimatechangebyphysiologicalandbehavioraladaptations(Wingfield,2008).However,toxicandendocrinedisruptingPOPscaninterferewithphysiologicalandbehavioralprocesses(Colborn,1995;ZalaandPenn,2004;Wingfield,2008)thatareimportantfororganismsforacclimationandadaptationtoclimatechange(Jenssen,2006;Noyesetal.,2009).Forinstance,toxicchemicalsimpairtheabilityofanimalstorespondtochangesinenvironmentaltemperature(Heugensetal.,2002;Noyesetal.,2009).Thus,toxicorendocrineeffectsmaydirectlyaffectfecundityand/orsurvival,whichcanhaveadirectconsequenceonpopulationsize.


OfmostconcernarePOPsthatinterferewiththereproductivesystemandwiththethyroidsystem(Colbornetal.,1993;Jenssen,2006).SeveralPOPshavebeendocumentedtohaveharmfuleffectsonreproductiveorgansandhormones,andtoadverselyaffectfertilityandfecundityinanimalsrangingfrominvertebratestomammals(Vosetal.,2000).Forinstance,PCBshavebeenreportedtoaffectreproductivehormonesinpolarbears(Haaveetal.,2003;Oskametal.,2003)andtheseeffectshavebeenlinkedtopoorrecruitmentinpolarbearpopulationsexposedtohighlevelsofPOPs(Derocheretal.,2003).Thyroidhormonesareimportantfortemperatureregulation,adaptationtofasting,forreproduction,growthanddevelopment,cognitivefunction,motorabilitiesandmemory(Jenssen,2006).ThereisplentifulevidencethatPOPs,ormetabolitesofPOPs(e.g.,hydroxylatedPCBs),interferewiththyroidhomeostasisandthyroidfunctioninawiderangeofspeciesrangingfromfishtobirdsandmammals(Letcheretal.,2010).

Persistentorganicpollutantshavealsobeenshowntoaffectotherendocrinesystems,suchasthecorticoidsystem,whichisrelatedtostressresponses(Letcheretal.,2010).Furthermore,endocrinedisruptingPOPscaninterferewithbehaviorandthusdisturbresponsestoclimatechange,suchasmigration,reproductivebehaviorandtimingofreproduction(ZalaandPenn,2004;Wingfield,2008).

ManyPOPshavebeenshowntobeimmunotoxictofishandwildlife(Rossetal.,1996;ReynaudandDeschaux,2006;Acevedo-WhitehouseandDuffus,2009)andmayaffecttheabilityofanimalstorespondtoavarietyofpathogensandparasites.ExamplesfromCanadaprovideanumberofcircumstanceswherechemicalsandenvironmentalvariabilityarelikelytohaveworkedtogethertoaffectvulnerabilityofaquaticorganisms(Couillardetal.,2008).Climatewarmingcanincreasediseaseriskbothforterrestrialandmarinebiota(Harvelletal.,2002).Again,theimpactsresultfromacombinationofeffects.POPexposurecanalsoimpairimmunocompetenceofanimals(Noyesetal.,2009)andclimatecanaltertransmissionandinfectivityofpathogens.

5.2.10. Predicted combined effects on ecosystems in different regions

ThereisconcernthatclimatechangewillbeparticularlylargeinArcticandAntarcticregions.POPsaretransportedtothepolarregionsfromurbanized/industrializedareasviaatmosphericandoceantransport.AlthoughPOPslevelsgenerallyarelowinlowertrophiclevelsinthepolarregions,levelsofsometoxicandendocrinedisruptingPOPsareveryhighinsomefreshwaterfishesandintoppredatorssuchasgulls,polarbears,andtoothedwhales(Letcheretal.,2010).Thus,thelargestconcernforinteractingeffectsbetweenclimatechangeandPOPsisforthesehighertrophiclevelspecies.However,itshouldalsobenotedthatecologicaleffectscanbemanifestedasatop-downstressthatcascadesdownthroughtheecosystem,thatis,effectsonpopulationsofhighertrophiclevelspeciesmayaffectpopulationsoflowertrophiclevelspecies(Schiedeketal.,2007).

TemperateareasaredenselypopulatedwithlargereleasesofPOPsfromhouseholds,industry,agricultureoroldwastes/deposits.Ecosystemsintheseareasarealsoexposedtoseveralotheranthropogenicstressors,suchashabitatlossandfragmentation,over-harvestingoffishandwildlifepopulations,andeutrophication.POPscanexertserioustoxicoradditionalstressthatcanactinconcertwithclimatechangetopushthespeciesbeyondtheirenvironmentaltolerancelimits,orreducereplenishmentratesofharvestedstocksorpopulations.

Tropicalregionsarecharacterizedbyhighbiodiversity.Thenumbersofindividualsthatconstituteaspeciesmay,however,below.Insometropicalregions,theuseofpesticides,suchasddTisalsorelativelyhigh.Duetolowgeneticvariabilityinsuchspecies,theymaybesusceptibletoexposuretomultipleanthropogenicstressors,suchasclimatechange,habitatlossandfragmentationandpollution.Itislikelythatacombinedexposuretothesefactorsactssynergisticallyandincreasesextinctionrates.

FreshwaterenvironmentsaresinksforPOPs.Climatechangewillcausetemperaturechangesandmayalsoaffecthydrology,andwaterchemistry,includingpH,conductivityandoxygencontent,andeutrophication.Climatechangecanalsoinfluenceprecipitationandincreaserun-offofPOPsandothersubstances,suchasmetals.Environmentalchangeslinkedtoclimatechangemay


influencethetoxicityofthesubstances,orthetoxicandendocrineeffectsofPOPscaninterferewiththeabilityofspecies,populationsandecosystemstoresistclimatechange.

MarineenvironmentsareconsideredtobetheultimatesinkforPOPs.Thisisthecase,inparticular,forareasclosetourbanizedareas.Marineecosystemsarealsothreatenedbyotheranthropogenicfactorssuchasover-fishing,petroleum-basedactivities,eutrophicationandhypoxia,andrecentlyalsoacidificationduetoincreasedmarinecarbondioxidelevels(pCO₂).POPsexposureisaseriousadditionaltoxicandendocrinedisruptingstressorthatcanaffectacclimationoradaptationtooceantemperaturechanges.EndocrinedisruptingPOPscanalsoreducerecruitmentratesofheavilyexploitedstocksorpopulations.Duetobiomagnification,toppredators,suchasmarinemammalsandseabirds,aremostlikelytobeatgreatestrisk.Acombinationofincreaseddiseaseriskcausedbyclimatechange(Harvelletal.,2002)andimmunosuppressiveeffectsofPOPs(Acevedo-WhitehouseandDuffus,2009)mayhaveseriousimpactsatthepopulationlevel.

5.3. Human health impacts

EstimatingtheeffectsofPOPsonhumanbeingsisgenerallythroughanimalstudieswhichestablisheffectlevelsorno-effectlevelsmeasuredinmilligramsofcontaminantexposureperkilogramofanimalbodyweightperdayofexposure(mg/kg-bw/d).Usuallydataareobtainedformorethanonespeciesbecauseitisclearthatnotallmammalsrespondthesamewayandtothesamedegreetoagiventoxicant.Bodysize,metabolicrate,andotherfactorsaffecthowanimalspeciesrespond.Inordertounderstandtheeffectsofatoxicant,mosttoxicologystudiesaredesignedtotestonesubstanceatatime.MostPOPshavesufficienttoxicitydatatoprovidearangeof‘effect’or‘no-effect’levelsforanumberofadversehealthoutcomesinlaboratoryspecies.AsummaryofthetoxiceffectsofPOPsisavailablethroughHansenetal.(1998),Bonefeld-JorgensenandAyotte(2003),DewaillyandWeihe(2003)andGilmanetal.(2009b);detailedevaluationsofindividualPOPsareavailablethroughtheU.S.AgencyforToxicSubstanceandDiseaseRegistries(ATSdr,2010)andotherinternationalorganizations(iPCS,2010;eU,2010).

‘Effect’or‘no-effect’levelsanduncertaintyfactorsareusedtosethumanexposureguidelinesoftenreferredtoas‘tolerabledailyintakes’(Tdis).Tdisaredesignedtoincludeamarginofsafetytoprotecthumanpopulationsfromthemostdangerousadverseeffects.Forexample,safetyfactorsareappliedtotakeaccountofspeciesdifferences,severityoftheeffectobserved,extrapolationfromanimaltohumanpopulationsandusuallyconsiderthemostsensitivemembersofthepopulation(oftenconsideredtobethefetus,newborns,childrenandwomenofreproductiveage).Tdisareoftenrevisedasnewtoxicologyandepidemiologydatabecomeavailable.SometypicalTdisareprovidedinTable5.2.TheseareonlyexamplesoftheTdisforsomePOPsanddemonstratetherangeintoxicpotentialforhumanpopulationsexposedto2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin(2,3,7,8-TCdd)(highesttoxicityshown)andddT(lowesttoxicityshown).ThereisaneedtoapplyTdiswithcautionastheremaybethepotentialforsynergistic,agonistoradditiveimpactsasaresultofthesimultaneousexposureofhumanpopulationstoalargenumberofPOPs(i.e.,legacyPOPs,newlyidentifiedPOPs,andchemicalswithPOP-likecharacteristicsnotyetlistedundertheStockholmConvention),otherless-persistentorganicchemicals,gases,metalsandparticulates.

Table5.2.SomeTolerableDailyIntakevaluessetforhumanpopulations(adaptedfromHansenetal.,1998).

Substance TDI(µg/kg-bw) SourceDioxin(2,3,7,8-TCdd) 0.00001 WorldHealthOrganizationMirex 0.07 HealthCanadaChlordane 0.05 HealthCanadaToxaphene 0.2 HealthCanadaTotalHCH 0.3 HealthCanadaTotalPCBs 1.0 HealthCanadaγ-HCH(Lindane) 8.0 WorldHealthOrganizationddT 20 WorldHealthOrganization


5.3.1. Effects of POP s on human populations

TheHumanHealthAssessmentGroupoftheArcticCouncil’sArcticMonitoringandAssessmentProgramme(AMAP)hasevaluatedanddescribedthemajoreffectsofseverallegacyPOPsandsomenewlyidentifiedPOPsonhumanpopulations(Hansenetal.,1998;Bonefeld-JorgensenandAyotte,2003;BurkowandWeber,2003;DewaillyandWeihe,2003;Gilmanetal,2009b).Table5.3categorizesthemostsignificanteffectsofsomelegacyPOPsandsomenewlyidentifiedPOPs,identifiesthepopulationsubgroupprimarilyatrisk,andprovidesanindicationofthetypeofadverseoutcomereported.Someoftheeffectsreportedhavebeenobservedinhumanpopulationsfollowingaccidentalpoisoningsituations(e.g.,fordibenzo-p-dioxins,dibenzofurans,brominatedbiphenylsandchlorinatedbiphenyls)andothershavebeenreportedinpopulationsexposedtoPOPsthathaveaccumulatedinthefoodchain.Sincemostofthedatacomefromepidemiologystudiesthereislessinformationonnewlyidentifiedcontaminants.

Table5.3.EffectsofconcernofsomePOPsonspecificsub-populations.

Populationhealtheffect

LegacyPOPslikelytobeinvolvedincausingtheeffect

Sub-populationatrisk Source

Cancer ddT,toxaphene,2,3,7,8-TCdd,mirex,HCH,PCBs,HCB

Primarilyadult(breastcancer;prostateandtesticularcancer);Somecancersreportedinchildren

iArC,1987(andupdates);Prins,2008;

Chlordecone Possibleassociationwithprostatecancer

Multigneretal.,2010

Reproductiveeffects PCBs,somedibenzodioxinsanddibenzofurans

Fetus(livebirths);Newborns(genitalandotherbirthdefects);Womenofchildbearingage(fecundity)

Gilmanetal.,2009b

PentaBde Harleyetal.,2010

Growthretardation PCBs,somedibenzodioxinsanddibenzofurans

Fetus,newbornsandchildren(length,bodyweight,headcircumferenceofnewborns)

DewaillyandWeihe,2003

Neurologicalimpairment

PCBs,somedibenzodioxinsanddibenzofurans(cognition,attentionspan)

Fetusandchildren(cognition,attentionspan,memory)

Gilmanetal.,2009b

Adults(Parkinson’sdiseaseandAlzheimer’sdisease)

Landriganetal.,2005;Weisskopfetal.,2010

Alteredbehaviouraldevelopment

PCBs,somedibenzodioxins,PentaBde

Children,intoadulthood(attentiondeficitdisorders,learningdisabilities)

Herbstermanetal,2010;Rozeetal.,2009

Immunesystemsuppression

PCBs,somedibenzodioxinsanddibenzofurans

Newborns,children(increasedearinfections,coldsanddiseaseresistance)Adults(immunosuppression)

Gilmanetal.,2009b

Cardiovasculareffects PCBs Childrenandadults(bloodpressureandheartratevariability)

DewaillyandWeihe,2003;Gilmanetal.,2009b

Effectsonthethyroid PCBs,PFOSandPBdes Perimenopausalwomen(hypothyroidism)

Gilmanetal.,2009b;Sowersetal.,2003;Canarisetal.,2000

Metabolicdisorders PCBs,POPsingeneral Adultmalesandfemales(diabetesandobesity)

LongneckerandDaniels,2001;Longneckeretal.,2001;Rylanderetal.,2005;Vasiliuetal.,2006

Bonedisease PCBs,dioxin,andHCH Adultfemalesandmales(osteomalacea,osteoporosis)

Alveblometal.,2003;Côtéetal.,2006


SomeoftheeffectslistedinTable5.3arecausedbylong-termexposuretoPOPs(e.g.,ddTandcancer),othersmaybeassociatedwithshortertermexposures(e.g.,2,3,7,8-TCddandsomedioxin-likePCBcongeners,PBdes,andPFOSduringspecificwindowsoftimeduringpregnancy).Whilesomeeffectsarenowbeingdiscussedintheelderlyexposedfordecades(MasoroandSchwartz,2001;Adler,2003;Hood,2003),mostscientificfocushasbeenoninuteroexposuresandchildhoodexposures(Gilmanetal.,2009b).

ChildrenandthedevelopingfetusaremoresusceptibletoPOPsforseveralreasons: • developingphysiologyopenswindowsofvulnerabilityatcriticaldevelopmentalstagesandmay

alsoaffecttheabsorption,metabolismandeliminationofPOPs • immunesystemdevelopmentissuppressedbyseveralPOPsatatimewhenmicrobiological

challengesspecifictosomedietsandlivingconditionsarehighest • uniqueearlylifeexposurepathwaysexistsuchastrans-placentaltransferofPOPs,consumptionof

breastmilkcontainingPOPs,‘close-to-ground’exposuresofinfantsandhand-to-mouthbehaviorsofchildren

• exposuresarecomparativelygreaterthanthoseofadultsbecausechildreneat,drinkandbreathemoreinproportiontotheirbodyweight.

ChildrenarealsomoreatriskbecausetheyareunabletomanageorcontroltheirexposuretoPOPsorotherenvironmentalsubstancesandenvironmentalconditionsrelatedtoclimatechange.Furthermore,childrenlivinginpovertyhaveahigherburdenofenvironmentallyattributabledisease,relatedinparttopoornutrition,poororcrowdedhousing,lesseducation,lessaccesstohealthcare,poorerqualitylocalenvironmentsandlessthanadequatenurture(Wigle,2003;CPCHe,2005;wHO,2005).

AmajormechanismthoughttoberesponsibleformanyoftheeffectsascribedtoPOPsisendocrinemodulation.ItisverylikelythatmanyoftheendocrinerelatedeffectsreportedinepidemiologystudiesofchildrenandadultsresultfromconcurrentexposurestoseveralPOPsinmixture.

ThelegacyPOPsandmostofthenewlylistedchlorinatedandbrominatedPOPsareallhighlylipophilicandbiomagnifyinthefoodchain.Asaresult,humanexposuretomostPOPsintheenvironmentisprimarilythroughfattyfoodsandespeciallyfrommarine,freshwaterandland-basedspeciesatthetopofthefoodchain(seechaptersondietsandlevelsofPOPsinAMAP,2003and2009;Undemanetal.,2010).FormostPOPs,thislipophilicityplacessubsistenceconsumers(thosewhoconsumespeciesatthetopofthefoodchain)atthegreatestriskofexposureandeffects.InArcticcountries,thishasbeenreferredtoasthe‘ArcticDilemma’,thatis,thehighlynutritioussubsistencedietsarealsotheprimarysourceofexposuretoPOPs.SubsistenceconsumersnearpollutedindustrialsitesordumpswherePOPsmayhavebeenproduced,storedorland-filledarealsolikelytobeexposedforlongperiodsoftimeandatgreaterriskthantheaveragepopulation(Gilmanetal.,2009a).Individualswhoconsumefoodsfromregulatedsuppliers(grocerystores,meatanddairyproductsfrominspecteddomesticanimals)tendtohavelowerPOPslevelsthansubsistenceconsumersbecausemost‘storebought’foodscomefromveryshortfoodchains(VanOostdamandDonaldson,2009).

BreastmilkisthemajorsourceofexposuretolipophilicPOPsformostinfants.However,breastmilkalsoprovidessignificantbenefitstonewbornsincludingexcellentnutrition,asecureandsafefoodsupply,developmentofahealthyimmunesystem,nurtureandparent-childbonding.PublichealthauthoritiesaregenerallyunanimousthatthebenefitsofbreastfeedingoutweightherisksassociatedwithPOPsexposure(Gilman,2003;Odlandetal.,2009).

ExposurestomostPOPsviadrinkingandbathingwaterandbyairaregenerallyconsideredtobefarlessthanthroughfood.However,foronenewlyidentifiedPOPwhichisnotlipophilic(i.e.,PFOS),themajorrouteofexposureisfromsurfacecontaminationoffoodsandwaterasaresultofwatertransportandfromdirectcontactwithproducts(seeChapter2).Additionally,indoorsourcesofsomePOPsusedasflameretardants(e.g.,PBdes)andstainprevention(e.g.,PFOS)relatedproductsmaybecomemoresignificantforhumanpopulationsspendingmoretimein


climatecontrolledbuildingsduetoincreasesordecreasesinambienttemperaturesrelatedtoclimatechange(seesection4.3).

AttentionalsoneedstobeplacedonthepotentialforaccelerateddegradationofPOPsasaresultofincreasedtemperaturesandbacterialproliferationinregionswhichbecomewarmerandwetter.WhilemorerapiddegradationofPOPsmaybeabenefit,somePOPsmetabolitesanddegradationproductscanpossesssignificanttoxicity(e.g.,hydroxylated-PCBs)formammals,includinghumans(Gilmanetal.,2009b).

5.3.2. Probable changes in onset and severity of effects due to climate change factors

Gilman(2003)providedqualitativeestimatesofdeclinesinseverallegacyPOPs(andresultingreductionsinhumanexposuresinArcticpopulations);however,climatechangeandclimatevariabilitywerenotconsideredasfactors.WhilethereisaworldwidetendencytowarddecreasinglevelsoflegacypollutantssuchasPCBsandddT,severalnewlylistedPOPsandchemicalswithPOP-likecharacteristicsarebeingreportedinthescientificliterature(i.e.,inecosystemcompartmentsandintissueofbiotaandhumans).ThesechemicalsincludebrominatedflameretardantssuchasPBdes,somesurfaceactivecompoundssuchasPFOSandPFOA,short-chainedchlorinatedparaffins(SCCPs)andotherchlorobornanes(AMAP,2009).LevelsofsomeofthesenewlylistedPOPsarenotdecreasingand,forafew,levelsarestillincreasinginhumantissues(VanOostdamandDonaldson,2009).

Chapter3identifiesanumberoffactorswhichwillinfluenceredistributionofPOPsgloballyasclimateschangeandbecomemorevariable.Chapter4indicatesthatforhumanpopulations,somegenericexposuresmayincrease,butthatoverallPOPslevelswillcontinuetodeclinegloballyasaresultofemissionsreductioninitiativessuchastheStockholmConvention.KeyfactorswhichmayincreaseexposuresincludegreateruseofpersistentpesticidessuchasddTtocontrolparasiticdiseasevectorsinwetterregions,redistributionofPOPswasteinareasinundatedwithrainorseawater,greaterpartitioningofsomePOPsinindustrial-urbanareasintobreathingzoneairandgreaterexposuretosomePOPsasaresultofgreatertimespentindoorsawayfromambientheatorcold.

ToxiceffectsrelatedtoPOPslikelytobeobservedasaspecificresultofclimatechangeandclimatevariabilityaredifficulttopredictwithprecision.Certainly,understandingtheeffectswillbecomplicatedbysimultaneousmulti-contaminantexposuresandotherconfoundingfactorsrelatedtosustaininggoodhealth(Gilmanetal.,2009a).Takingtheserealitiesintoaccount,theenhancedeffectsofPOPsassociatedwithclimatechangemayincludethefollowing:

• SomePOPs(e.g.,ddT)haveverylowacutetoxicityformammalsincludinghumansandasaresult,increaseduseofddTforinsectvectorcontrolwillnotleadtoanyobservableshort-termincreasesintoxicity.However,greateruseofddTwillleadtogreaterhumanexposureatthesitesofapplicationandinremoteregions(asaresultoflong-rangetransport)andtheeffectsofchronicexposuretohighlevelsofaccumulatedddeintissuecouldincludeanincreaseinhumancancers.Othereffectiveandlesspersistentinsectvectorcontrolagents(e.g.,pyrethroids),whencombinedwithcommunitysupportednon-chemicalpestmanagementpractices,havebeenshowntobeeffectiveinseveralcountries(e.g.,Mexico,someAfricanstates)andcansignificantlyreducerelianceonddTasacontrolagent.

• FloodedwastesitesandwastesitesaffectedbyexcessiverunoffmayleadtogreaterhumanexposuretoahostofPOPs.ThesePOPsmayenterthefoodchainorcontaminatelocalpotablewatersupplies.GreaterexposuretoPOPsingeneralislikelytoleadtomoderatelydecreasedbirthweightsandgrowthretardationofchildren,moderatelyincreasedneurobehavioraldeficits,andotherendocrinerelatedeffectsaslistedinTable5.3.

• Ifsomepopulationsspendmoretimeindoorstoreducetheirexposuretotemperatureextremes(heatorcold)relatedtoclimatechange,humanexposuresmayincreasetomorecommonlyfound‘buildingPOPs’suchasflameretardants(e.g.,PBdes,hexabromocyclododecanes(HBCds))


andanti-stainingagentscontainingthePFOSmoiety.IncreasedexposurestoHBCdsmayleadtogreatertoxicityaslistedinTable5.3;however,theeffectsofPBdesandPFOSonhumanhealtharestillpoorlyunderstood.Long-termexposurestothesesubstanceshavebeenassociatedwithhypothyroidisminperimenopausalwomen.

• Inregionswheretemperaturesincreaseandthereislessrainfall,levelsofairborneparticulatesmayincrease.Inurbanareaswithhighmotorvehicledensity,outdoorburningandcombustionbasedindustries,chemicalindustriesandelectronicrecyclingactivities,theseparticulatesmaycontainPOPssuchasdioxinsandfurans,HCB,PBdes,PCBs,andpentachlorobenzene.PulmonaryexposurestoPOPsarenotwellstudied;however,endocrinerelatedeffectsmayincreaseandbeofsignificantconcernforthedevelopingfetus,newbornsandchildren.ExposuretoPCBs(andairpollutionandsomenon-POPscontaminantssuchasmercury)canleadtocardiovasculardiseaseinchildrenandadults(seeTable5.3).Medicationscommonlyusedtotreatchroniccardiovasculardiseaseinseniorsmayexacerbatetheeffectsofextremeheatassociatedwithchangingclimateandclimatevariability(Flynnetal.,2005).

• MeltingofthepolaricecapislikelytoreleaseHCHandHCBcurrentlysequesteredintheiceandseawatertotheaircolumn(seeChapter3).Throughdepositionmechanisms,thesePOPswillenterthefoodchainandbioconcentrateandbiomagnify.ArcticpopulationsreliantonmarinemammalsintheirdietmaybeexposedtohigherconcentrationsofthesePOPsthancurrentlyreported.GreaterexposuretoHCHandHCBcouldleadtomorecancercasesandpossiblybonedisease.

• Asclimateschange,oceancurrentswillchange,bringingincreasedpollutiontosomeregionsandlowerlevelsofpollutantstootherregions.Thesecurrentsmaydelivertheirpollutantstocomplexfoodchainswithsignificantopportunityforbioaccumulationandbiomagnification.Asaresult,humanexposuretoseveralPOPsfoundinroutinelyharvestedspeciesoffishandmarinemammalsmayincreaseaslevelsofthesesamePOPsincreaseintheseharvestedspecies.IndigenouspopulationssuchasintheArcticcouldbeexposedtoalargenumberofredistributedPOPsfromprimaryandsecondarysourcesandcouldsustainanincreaseinanumberofthePOPsmixtures-relatedeffectslistedinTable5.3.

• Changesintheavailabilityorqualityoffoodspeciesnormallyeatenbysubsistenceconsumersmayleadtoincreasedrelianceuponmore-orless-contaminatedfoods.POPsrelatedeffectsarelikelytooccurinsubsistenceconsumerswithhigherexposures.

• Populationsmostlikelytobeaffectedbyclimate-POPsrelatedinfluencesarethosewhichareinthepooresthealth,havelessaccesstohealthcare,arelesseducated(especiallyabouthowtoavoidexposures),crowdedindenseurban-industrialareas,livingincrowdedhousingand/oraremorereliantonsubsistencefoods.InareaswherePOPsincreasebeyondtheircurrentlevels,immunosuppressioncouldalsoincrease.Forpopulationsalreadycompromisedbypoorgeneralhealthanddiet,suppressionoftheimmunesystemcouldresultinmorefrequentandlongerlastinginfections,especiallyfornewborns.Thisisespeciallysignificantforregionswheretemperaturesandmoisturelevelsincreaseasaresultofclimatechangebecauseinsectdiseasevectorsandbacteriamaybothproliferateandspreadintotheseareas.

5.4. Conclusions

AnimalandhumanpopulationsinthepooresthealthandexposedtoincreasedlevelsofPOPsarelikelytobethemostaffected.ItisnotpossibletopredictwithanycertaintyinwhichanimalorhumanpopulationsorregionsthetoxiceffectsofPOPswillincreaseordeclineasaresultofclimatechangeandclimatevariabilityeffects.GreaterknowledgeofwheretemperaturesandrainfallamountswillchangeandthecurrentlevelsofindividualPOPsinbiotaandhumansisessentialforfurthermeaningfulevaluation.

ToxicandendocrinedisruptingPOPscaninterferewithphysiologicalandbehavioralprocessesthatareimportantforanimalstoacclimateandadapttoclimatechange.Acombinationof


increaseddiseaseriskcausedbyclimatechangeandimmunosuppressiveeffectsofPOPsmayhaveseriousimpactsatthepopulationlevel.Thus,toxicorendocrineeffectsmaydirectlyaffectfecundityand/orsurvival,andthereforehaveadirectconsequenceonpopulationsize.Effectsatthepopulationlevelcanbemanifestedasbottom-uportop-downstressinecosystems,causingseverechangesinbiodiversityandecosystemfunctioning.

Ecosystemsindenselypopulatedareasareexposedtoseveralotheranthropogenicstressors,suchashabitatlossandfragmentation,over-harvestingoffishandwildlifepopulationsandeutrophication.Thus,POPscanexertserioustoxicoradditionalstressthatcanactinconcertwithclimatechangetopushthespeciesbeyondtheirenvironmentaltolerancelimits,orreducerecruitment/replenishmentratesofharvestedstocksorpopulations.

Insometropicalregionswhereinsectdiseasevectorsproliferate,theuseofpesticidessuchasddTmayincrease.Duetolowgeneticvariabilityinmanytropicalspecies,thesespeciesmaybesusceptibletoexposuretomultipleanthropogenicstressors,suchasclimatechange,habitatlossandfragmentationandpollution.Itislikelythatacombinedexposuretothesefactorsactsadditivelyorsynergisticallyandmayincreaseextinctionrates.

MarineandfreshwaterenvironmentsareconsideredtobetheultimatesinkforPOPs.Thisisparticularlythecaseforecosystemsincloseproximitytourbanized/industrializedareas.Theseecosystemsarealsothreatenedbyotheranthropogenicfactorssuchasover-fishing,petroleum-relatedactivity,eutrophicationandhypoxia,andrecentlyalsoacidification.POPsexposureisaseriousadditionaltoxicandendocrinedisruptingstressorthatcanaffectacclimationoradaptationtooceantemperaturechanges.EndocrinedisruptingPOPscanalsoreducerecruitment/replenishmentratesofheavilyexploitedstocksorpopulationswhentheyareexposedtotheadditionalstressofclimatechange.

InareaswherelevelsofPOPsintheenvironmentincreaseasaresultofredistributionandnewprimaryandsecondarysourcereleases,humanexposurewillincrease.POPsareknowntohavenegativehealtheffectsonhumans,suchascardiovasculardisease,immunosuppression,metabolicdisordersincludingdiabetes,cancer,andneurobehavioral,endocrineandreproductiveeffects.WhereclimatechangeorclimatevariabilityresultinanincreaseinexposuretoPOPs,riskstohealthwillincrease.

Inuitchildrenplayonapileofempty

oildrums.Moriussaq,nwGreenland


Thecombinedeffectofseveraldirectandindirectclimate-relatedfactors–forexample,excessiveheatorcold,overcrowdingassociatedwithpopulationmigration,increasedexposuretoinsectvectorsofdisease,andchangesintheavailabilityandqualityoftraditional/localfood–couldalsomodulatetheeffectsofPOPsexposureonhumanpopulations.Socio-economicfactorssuchaseducationandgeneralhealthstatuscanalsohaveanimpactonhumanvulnerabilitytoPOPs.Indigenouspeoplesingeneral,andespeciallyindigenouspopulationsintheArctic,experiencemanyofthesemodulatingfactorsandarehighlyvulnerabletotheeffectsofclimatechangeandPOPs.

Ingeneral,POPshavetheirmostsignificanteffectsonthedevelopingfetus,onchildren,onwomenofreproductiveageand,followinglifetimeexposures,ontheelderly.ItwillbeessentialtofollowboththetrendsinhumanexposurelevelstoPOPsandtheeffectsofthesePOPsinthosesubgroupsmostatriskandinregionswhereincreasesaretakingplace.

Withoutbaselinedataforcurrentexposures,itwillbeimpossibletomeasurechangesinexposuretoPOPsandtoundertakeevaluationsofthepotentialforanincreaseinharmtoecosystemorhumanhealthfromclimaterelatedchangesinPOPsexposure.

5.5. Data/knowledge gaps

5.5.1. Environmental health

Thefollowingactionsareneededtofilldatagapsonenvironmentalhealth: • Identifyandbetterunderstandthemechanismsunderlyingtheinteractingeffectsofclimate

changeandPOPsonalllevelsofecosystems. • IdentifyspeciesandecosystemsmostsensitivetotheeffectsofclimatechangeandPOPsexposure. • Developandapplyapproachesforassessingcombinedecologicaleffectsofmultiplestressors

(POPs,climatechange,andotherfactorsdescribedinsection5.2.1).

5.5.2. Human health

Thefollowingactionsareneededtofilldatagapsonhumanhealth: • UndertakemoreextensiveandsystematicmonitoringofcurrentlevelsofPOPsinhumantissuesin

populationslocatedinthemostsignificantlyclimate-affectedareasisessentialtocreateabaselinefromwhichtomeasurechange.SpecialfocusshouldbeplacedonregionsinAfrica,theIndiansub-continent,SouthAmericaandAsia,wherelittlehasbeenpublishedonhistoricalorrecentlevelsofcontaminantsinhumantissue(bloodorbreastmilk).

• UndertakemorestudiesoftheeffectsofthenewlyidentifiedPOPssuchasHBCds,PBdes,PFOS,SCCPsandothersubstanceswithPOP-likecharacteristics,tounderstandhowtheymayaffecthumanpopulations,especiallytheveryyoung(includingthefetus)andtheelderly(whomayhavebeenexposedfordecades).

• GeneratebetterpredictionsofthelocationswhereclimatechangeandclimatevariabilityarelikelytobegreatestandwhereimpactsonPOPsexposuresarelikelytobegreatest,suchastheArctic.


Chapter 6. Co-benefits of mitigation activities for climate change and POP s emission reduction

JOZeFM.PACynA,KyrreSUndSeTHandEliSABeTHG.PACynA

6.1. Introduction

Greenhousegases(GHGs)andselectedunintentionallyproducedPOPsareoftenemittedfromthesamesourcesandanymitigationoptionorintegratedpolicymeasuresforreducingclimatechangeimpacts,particularlythroughreductionofcarbondioxide(CO₂)maychangethelevelsofemissionsandthusexposuretounintentionallyproducedPOPs.However,insomesituationsreductionofCO₂mayleadtoincreasedemissionsofunintentionallyproducedPOPs,requiringsometrade-offsforpolicymakers.Therearetechnologiesandpracticesthatrequireadditionalenergyfortheirapplication(e.g.,end-of-pipetechniquestoreduceCO₂emissions).Inthecaseofwasteincineration,moderntechniquesoftenaimatenergyrecoveryandthenetresultcouldbeareductionofGHGemissionsalongwithreductionsofairemissionsofunintentionallyproducedPOPsfromthissource.Ontheotherhand,thisapproachmayresultinanincreaseintotalreleases,forexample,increasedunintentionallyproducedPOPsinflyash.Finally,therearealsomeasurestoreduceunintentionallyproducedPOPswhichdonothaveanymajoreffectonGHGemissionreductions,suchaseliminationofopenburningofwastesthroughapplicationofmodernincinerationtechniques(unlessthereisanenergyrecoveryprocessinplace).Ingeneral,theco-benefitcasesoccurinmanymoresituationsthanthetrade-offssituationsandsothemajorfocusinthischapterisonco-benefitsratherthantrade-offs.

AnnexCoftheStockholmConventionlists20sourcecategorieshavingsignificantglobalimpactsontheformationandreleaseofunintentionallyproducedPOPstotheenvironment.ApportionmentofglobalCO₂emissionsbymaincategoriesonaglobalscalein2006ispresentedinFigure6.1.

Figure6.1 Globalcarbondioxideemissionsbysectorin2006(OECD,2008).

ThelargestCO₂emissionsaregeneratedduringcombustionoffuelsfromstationarysources(67%)andtransport(23%).Therefore,theco-benefitcasesforCO₂andunintentionallyproducedPOPsemissionreductionsaremostoftenfoundforthesetwogroupsofsources.

Amongthe21differentPOPsandPOPgroupslistedinAnnexesA,BandCoftheStockholmConventionanddiscussedinthisreport,severalareemittedfromthesourcesshowninFigure6.1insignificantamounts,includingPCdds/PCdFs,HCB,andPCBs.TherearealsootherPOPs

Residential7%

Other10%

Industry19%

Electricityand Heat

41%

Transport23%

CO-BeneFiTSOFMiTiGATiOnACTiViTieSFOrCliMATeCHAnGeAndPOPSeMiSSiOnredUCTiOn 43

suchasperfluorinatedcompounds(PFCs),organicpollutantssuchaspolycyclicaromatichydrocarbons(PAHs)andaminesandblackcarbon(soot)whicharenotmentionedinAnnexCtotheConventionbutneedtobeconsideredwhendiscussingtheco-benefitsofclimatechangemitigationoptions.

Averycomprehensiveassessmentofco-benefitsandtrade-offsbetweenenergyconservationandreleasesofunintentionallyproducedPOPshasrecentlybeenpreparedfortheGlobalEnvironmentFacility(GeF)byBohmeretal.(2009).Oneofthemajorquestionsaddressedinthisassessmentwaswhetherimplementationofbestavailabletechniques(BAT)andbestenvironmentalpractices(BeP)inthecontextoftheStockholmConventionhassynergisticeffectsonGHGemissionsorwhethertherearetrade-offs.Thischapterhasusedtheresultsoftheassessmenttogetherwithotherdatapublishedintheopenliterature.

6.2. Technological and non-technological measures for emission reductions of greenhouse gases and unintentionally

produced POP s

TherearevarioustechnologicalmeasurespresentedwithinBATandBePlistswhicharedirectedtowardsimprovementofcombustionconditions,energyefficiency,energyrecoveryrates,andemissionreductions(eeA,2006;Nemetetal.,2010).ThesemeasuresaredesignedforapplicationinvariousindustrialsectorsandthetransportationsectorwherebothGHGsandunintentionallyproducedPOPscanbereleasedtotheatmosphere.Thefollowingsectorsareofparticularimportanceinthiscontext:combustionoffuelsinutilityburnersforelectricityandheatproduction,industrialandresidentialboilers(particularlythosefuelledwithwoodandotherbiomass),wasteincinerators,crematories,cementkilns,primaryandsecondarynon-ferrousmetalindustries,pulpproduction,specificchemicalproductionandmotorfuelfiring.ThechoiceofspecifictechnologywouldhaveadirectimpactonreleasesofGHGsandunintentionallyproducedPOPs.

Typically,highcombustiontemperaturesdesignedtoensurecompletecombustioninvariousutility,industrialandresidentialboilersaswellasmotorenginesminimizetheformationofunintentionallyproducedPOPs.FormationofunintentionallyproducedPOPsduringthecombustionoffuelscanbesignificantlyreducedbyoptimizingcombustionconditionswithco-benefitsforenergyrecoveryandreducedGHGemissions.MaximizedenergyrecoverysignificantlyreducestheamountoffossilfuelsneededtogenerateagivenquantityofpowerandassuchformationofunintentionallyproducedPOPs(UneP,2005;Bohmeretal.,2009).Asfuelisbyfarthelargestportionoftheoveralloperatingcostsforpowergenerationfacilities,bothintermsofoperatingcostsandGHGemissions,reductionoffuelconsumptionthroughefficiencyimprovementforlowerfuelconsumptionperunitofpowergeneratedisthemostpromisingapproachtoreducesimultaneouslyCO₂andunintentionallyproducedPOPsemissions.

Inthecaseoftransportation,dieselparticulatefiltersinmobileenginescanleadtouptoa90%reductionofAh-bindingcompounds(e.g.,dioxin-likecompounds)asshownbyWengeretal.(2008).

Polychlorinateddibenzo-p-dioxinsanddibenzofuransmayalsobeformedduringwoodcombustionviaprecursorssuchasphenolsandligninorviade-novoreactionsinthepresenceofparticulatecarbonandelementalchlorine.HighemissionlevelsofunintentionallyproducedPOPscanbeexpectedfromburningwastetreatedwood.Woodresiduesoftencontainvarioustypesofcontaminants(copperarsenate,pentachlorophenol,creosote,preservatives,adhesives,resins,paintandothersurfacecoatings).StoppingthepracticeofburningwastewoodwouldsignificantlyreduceunintentionallyproducedPOPsemissions.

WoodandotherbiomassfiringisalsoalargesourceofCO₂(eeA,2007)andtheseemissionscanalsobereducedthroughimprovedcombustionefficiency.Combinedheatandpower(CHP)


systemsarethemostimportanttechnicalandeconomicalmeasuretoincreasefuelefficiency(eC,2006a,b).ThismeasurewillalsocontributetoreductionsinunintentionallyproducedPOPsemissions.

BATandBePforwasteincinerationincludetheimplementationofprimarymeasures,effectiveend-of-pipetechniquesandappropriatetreatment/disposaloptionsforsolidresidues(especiallyforflyash).PrimarymeasuresreducebothGHGandunintentionallyproducedPOPsemissionsthroughthepreventionofunintentionallyproducedPOPsformationorbyprovidingthebasisforhighenergyefficiencyandreducedprocessdemandforenergy.Inaddition,theapplicationofBATandBePhelpstooptimizetheprocessbyincreasingtheefficiencyofend-of-pipetechniquesoverthelifetimeoftheplant(Bohmeretal.,2009).

GasolineandespeciallydieselfuelcombustionareknowntoemitPCddsandPCdFs.Inaddition,insomeregionsoftheworldtetraalkylleadisstillusedasananti-knockcompoundingasoline.Inadditiontotetraalkyllead,bothethylenedichlorideandethylenedibromidehavebeenusedasenginescavengers.Inthepresenceofchlorideorbromide,fuelcombustionprocessesfavortheformationofunintentionallyproducedPOPs.BATandBePforthissourceofCO₂includeprohibitionofleadedgasoline,aswellasinstallationofdieseloxidationcatalysts,particulatefiltersandcatalyticconverters.Reductionoffuelconsumptionbyvehiclesandconversionofmotorfleetstoelectric,solar,fuelcellorotheralternativemeansofvehiclepowerisalsorecommended.

AminesarenotconsideredwithinAnnexCoftheStockholmConvention,althoughthesecompoundsmayberelatedtoPOPsastheyareusedinthedevelopmentofvariousadsorbersfortheirapplicationwithinthe‘carboncaptureandstorage’(CCS)technologies.ThesetechnologiescaptureCO₂,POPsandothercontaminantsandthencontributetocontaminationoflandand/oraquaticenvironmentsthroughthestorageofcapturedcontaminants.Amines,whicharetoxictohumans,areamongthesecontaminants.

Petrochemicalplant,Scotland,UK

CO-BeneFiTSOFMiTiGATiOnACTiViTieSFOrCliMATeCHAnGeAndPOPSeMiSSiOnredUCTiOn 45

6.3. Mitigation options by implementation of environmental regulations and capacity building

ImplementationofvariousenvironmentalregulationsalsoprovidesanopportunitytoreduceGHGsandunintentionallyproducedPOPs.Thisissueisofparticularimportanceforwastedisposal,whichisaveryimportantsourceofemissionsofPCddsandPCdFs.OpenburningandaccidentalburningofwastesisanimportantsourceofGHGemissionsonaglobalscaleandoneofthelargestglobalsourcesofPOPs.ProhibitionofopenburningofwastesthroughadequatedomesticandregionalregulationscouldresultinsignificantreductionsinemissionsofGHGsandunintentionallyproducedPOPsfromthissource.

Thereisaneedtoraiseawareness,buildcapacity,transfertechnologyandprovidetechnicalawareness,particularlytodevelopingcountriesontheissueofco-benefitsthatcanbeachievedfromthereductionofGHGsandunintentionallyproducedPOPsemissionsatthesamesourceorwithinthesamesourcecategory.ThiswillalsoresultinsimultaneousreductionsofGHGsandunintentionallyproducedPOPsemissionsfromseveralsources.

6.4. Conclusions

TheeffectsofclimatepoliciesonunintentionallyproducedPOPsandotherairpollutantemissionsmainlytakeplaceinalimitednumberofsectors:industrial,residential,andtransportation.ClimatepoliciesareexpectedtohaveapositiveeffectonregionalandlocalscaleairpollutionbyreducingthecreationandemissionsofunintentionallyproducedPOPs.Table6.1providesaqualitativeassessmentofunintentionallyproducedPOPsco-benefitsduringthereductionofCO₂emissions.

Table6.1.AqualitativeassessmentofCO₂emissionreductionbenefitsforreductionoptionsandco-benefitsforunintentionallyproducedPOPsreduction.

CO₂reductionoption CO₂benefits Co-benefitsforunintentionallyproducedPOPsreduction

1 Reductionfromcoalusage Medium→Large Medium

2 Reductionfromindustrialprocesses Medium→Large Medium→Large

3 Reductionfromwasteincineration Small→Large Large

4 Reductionfromtransportation Small→Large Medium→Large

Currentliteratureindicatesthatairqualitypoliciesbasedonstructuralchanges,suchasimprovementofenergyefficiencyinpowerstations,replacementoffossilfuelsbyrenewablesources,andimprovementofcombustionprocessesinstationaryandmobilesources,andindustrialtechnologies,canprovidegreaterclimateandairpollutionco-benefitsthanthetraditionalend-of-pipetechnologies.

Mitigationthroughimplementationofenvironmentalregulationstoarrestopenburningofwastewillalsoresultinco-benefitsofreducingGHGsandunintentionallyproducedPOPs.

Enhancedcollaborationandcommunicationbetweenkeyclimatechangeandairpollutionstakeholders(particularlyforunintentionallyproducedPOPs)wouldbeessentialtodevelopco-benefitsstrategiesatinternational,nationalandlocalscales,whichmayincludevariousenvironmentalprotectionauthoritiesandgovernmentaldepartments,aswellasindustryandacademia.


Chapter 7. Conclusions THeExPerTGrOUPASAwHOle

7.1. General trends

TheStockholmConventionincludesimportantobligationstoreduceoreliminatereleasesfromintentionalproductionanduseandrequiresPartiestotakemeasurestoreducethetotalreleasesofunintentionallyproducedPOPs“…with the goal of their continuing minimization and, where feasible, ultimate elimination” (Article5).Reductionsinthemanufacture,useanddisposalofmanyoftheoriginal12POPslistedunderAnnexesA,BandCoftheStockholmConvention(i.e.,thelegacyPOPs)haveledtoageneralglobaldeclineinenvironmentalconcentrations.However,levelsofsomeindividualPOPs,forexample,ddT,HCHandHCB,commercialpentabromodiphenylether(c-PBde),commercialoctabromodiphenylether(c-OBde)andPFOSmaynotbedecliningasrapidlyormayevenincreaseinregionsmostaffectedbyclimatechange.FornewlyidentifiedPOPs,forwhichregulationsareonlynowenteringintoforceorforwhichrestrictedusesarepermitted,levelsarenotlikelytodeclineforseveralyearsandmayincreaseinmostclimatechangeimpactedregions.

7.2. POP s releases

Pastandcurrentmanufacture,useanddisposalofintentionallyproducedPOPsleadtoprimaryreleasesintotheenvironment.ChangesinoveralltrendsoffuturereleasesofPOPsaredifficulttopredict.EvidencesuggeststhatclimatechangewillaffectprimaryemissionsofPOPsbychangingtheirrateofmobilizationfrommaterialsorstockpilesandtheirdegradationratesduetohigherambienttemperatures,orbyalteringusepatternsorincreasingdemandforsomePOPssuchasddTfordiseasevectorcontrol.Therefore,theintendedresultsoftheStockholmConventioncouldbeaffectedbyclimate-relatedfactorsshouldtheyleadtogreateruseandreleasesofsomePOPs.

7.3. Environmental fate of POP s

Afterprimaryrelease,POPscirculateviaenvironmentalmediauntildepositedinenvironmentalreservoirs.Secondaryreleasesaredescribedasrevolatilizationandremobilizationfromthesereservoirs.ThesecondaryreleaseofPOPsisaconfoundingfactorintheinterpretationofmonitoringdata.Thereisconsiderableuncertaintywhetherprimaryorsecondaryreleaseswilldominateonaregionalbasis.

TheenvironmentalfateofPOPswillbeaffectedbyseveralfactorsrelatedtoclimatechangeonaglobal,regionalandlocalscale:

• remobilization(secondaryreleases)fromenvironmentalreservoirsduetoincreasedtemperatureand/orextremeeventssuchasflooding

• increasedairbornetransporttolocationsdownwindofmainemissionareasbecauseofhigherwindspeedsandstrongeraircirculation(mainlyrelevantonaregionalscalewithlong-rangetransportintherangeofhundredstothousandsofkilometres)

• enhanceddegradationofPOPsifmicroorganismshavehigherdegradationcapacity,butalsoincreasedformationofpotentiallyPOP-liketransformationproducts

• changesinatmosphericdepositionpatternsduetospatialandtemporalchangesinprecipitationpatterns,whicharemostrelevantatthelocalandregionalscale.

COnClUSiOnS 47

7.4. Exposure to POP s

AsclimatechangealtersprimaryandsecondaryreleasesofPOPs,levelsandpatternsofexposureinwildlifeandhumanswillalsochange.Climatechangeisalreadyalteringfoodwebstructureinsomeareas.ThiswillbeanaddedinfluenceontheexposureofwildlifeandhumanstoPOPs.However,therearelargeuncertaintiesconcerninghowclimatechangewillaffectecosystemandfoodwebstructure.GiventhesmallamountofbaselineexposureinformationforPOPsinmanypartsofthedevelopingworld,uncertainpredictionsofregionalchangesinclimate,anduncertainecosystemresponsetothesechanges,itiscurrentlynotpossibletoevaluateaccuratelyhowclimatechangewillimpactexposureofanimalandhumanpopulationstoPOPs.

7.5. Effects of POP s on biota

Overall,POPsareknowntohavedirectadverseconsequencesonindividualsofaspeciesandcanaffectpopulationsize.MostsignificantaretheendocrinedisruptingeffectsofPOPs,whichmaydirectlyaffectfecundityand/orsurvival,andthushavedirectconsequencesonanindividualbasisaswellasonpopulationsize.EndocrinedisruptingPOPscanalsointerferewithphysiologicalandbehavioralprocessesinanimals,whichareimportantforadaptationandresponsetoclimatechange.Forinstance,POPsimpairtheabilityofananimaltorespondtochangesinenvironmentaltemperature.EndocrinedisruptingPOPscanalsoreducethereplenishmentofheavilyexploitedstocksorpopulationsandtheimmunosuppressiveeffectsofPOPsmayfacilitatethespreadofdiseaseandhaveothernegativeimpactsonpopulations.AttentionshouldbepaidtonewinformationresultingfrommolecularandepigeneticstudieswhichareexaminingimpactsandoutcomesofexposureoforganismsandcellstochangingconcentrationsofPOPs.

Severalclimate-relatedfactorswillmodulatethetoxicityandtoxicokineticsofPOPs.Thesefactorsincludesalinity,oceanacidification,eutrophication,wateroxygenlevels,changesinthenutritionalstatusofindividuals/species,temperaturechangeandtheadaptabilityofindividuals/species,andtheproliferationofparasitesandpathogens.Thesechangescouldenhance,eitheraloneorincombination,thetoxiceffectsofPOPsandultimatelyincreasespeciesvulnerability.Particularspecieswithlowgeneticvariability(asoccurinsomeareaswhereddTisapplied)couldfaceincreasedriskofextinction.Ecologicaleffectsofclimate-relatedchangesandPOPstoxicitycanbemanifestedasatop-downorbottom-upstressthatcascadesthroughtheecosystem.

InadditiontoPOPsandclimate-relatedimpacts,ecosystemsarealsoexposedtoseveralotheranthropogenicstressorssuchashabitatlossandfragmentation,over-harvestingoffishandwildlifepopulations,eutrophication,petroleum-relatedactivities,aswellasurbanandagriculturaldischarges.Thecombinationofsomeorallofthesefactorscanpushspeciesbeyondtheirenvironmentaltolerancelimitsandsignificantlyreducetherateofreplenishmentofharvestedstocksorpopulations.

7.6. Human health effects of POP s

Persistentorganicpollutantsarewellknownfortheiradverseeffectsonindividualsandhumanpopulations.Theextentoftheeffectsisdependentontheamount,timinganddurationofexposure.ThoseatmostriskfromtheeffectsofincreasedexposuretoPOPsincludethedevelopingfetus(e.g.,growthretardation,impairedneurologicaldevelopment),children(e.g.,cardiovasculardisease,immunosuppression,metabolicdisorders,neuro-behavioralimpairment)andwomenofreproductiveage(e.g.,endocrineandreproductiveeffects).Recentdatasuggestthattheelderly,whohavebeenexposedforalifetimetomixturesofPOPs,mayalsobevulnerabletolate-onsetchronicdisease(e.g.,cardiovasculardisease,metabolicdisordersincludingdiabetesandthyroiddysfunction,bonediseaseandcancer).

DataoncurrenthumanexposurelevelstoPOPsfrommanyregionsinthedevelopingworldarescarceorunavailable.Thispaucityofexposuredatacombinedwithuncertaintyinclimatechange


modelsforthesesameregionsmakepredictionsofchangesinexposuretoPOPsandriskstohealthdifficult.Itisprobablethatsubsistenceconsumers(especiallythoseharvestingfoodfromtheaquaticenvironment)areatahigherriskduetocontaminationoftheirtraditional/localfoodsupply.IndigenouspeoplesintheArcticareknowntobeexposedtosomeofthehighestlevelsofenvironmentallytransportedPOPsandmaybecomeevenmoreexposedfromremobilizationandrevolatilizationofsomePOPs(e.g.,HCHandHCB)frommeltingpolariceandfromtheArcticOcean.IndividualswholiveintheregionsmostaffectedbyclimatechangemayspendmoretimeindoorsandbeexposedtohigherlevelsoftypicalindoorPOPs(e.g.,PFOS,PBdes).IndividualslivinginornearregionswhereddTmaybeappliedforpublichealthreasons,suchastocontroltheincreaseinprevalenceofdiseasevectors,maybecomemoreexposedtothisPOP.

Severalclimate-relatedfactorswillcombinetoaggravatetheeffectsofPOPsonhumans.Forexample,excessiveheatorgreatercold,overcrowdinganddiseasespreadassociatedwithpopulationmigrationaslandbecomeslessarableorfloods,increasedexposuretovector-bornediseasesandothermicrobialpathogens,andchangesintheavailabilityandqualityoftraditional/localfoods.Otherdeterminantsofhealth(e.g.,socio-economicstatus,education,adequacyofshelter,generalhealthstatus)mayalsocombinetoadverselyaffecthumanresponsestoPOPsandclimatechange.

7.7. Mitigation co-benefits

MitigationactionstoreduceGHGemissionsandshort-livedclimateforcers(e.g.,blackcarbonorsoot)areexpectedinmostcasestoresultinsimultaneousreductionsinemissionsofunintentionallyformedPOPsandothercontaminantsofconcern.ThesereductionsmaybeexpectedforemissionsfrommajoranthropogenicsourcesofCO₂,includingstationarycombustionoffuels,incinerationofwastes,andtransportation.Insomecases,however,wherethereisanincreaseintheuseofbiomassasfuelforheatingandcooking,unintentionalPOPsemissionsmayincrease.

Technologicalandnon-technologicaloptionsforclimatechangemitigationcanbeconsideredwhendiscussingco-benefitsforreductionsofunintentionalPOPs.Majortechnologicaloptionsincludeswitchingfuels,improvingcombustionefficiency,improvingheatrecoveryandbetterrecycling,andchangingcombustiontechnologies.Non-technologicalmeasurescontributingto

co-benefitsincludemeasuressuchasintroductionandenforcementofregulations.

7.8. Knowledge gaps

Thefollowingkeyknowledgegapswereidentifiedduringthecourseofthetechnicalreview:

• ThereisaneedtoidentifyandimprovecharacterizationbothofprimaryandsecondaryemissionsourcesofseveralPOPs(suchasPCBsandPBdes)andtoestimatefuturescenariosoftheneedfor,anduseof,ddT.Thisishighlyrelevantforpredictionoffuturelevelsandtrends,aswellasfortheinterpretationofmonitoringdata.

• ThereisalackofadequatemonitoringdataandassessmenttoolstoevaluatetheimpactofclimatechangeonchangingPOPsemissionsandconcentrations.Thisisespeciallytrueinsomedevelopingcountryregions,includingSouthAmerica,Asia,AfricaandtheIndiansub-continent.SpecificattentionalsoneedstobepaidtotheeffectsofclimatechangeontransportmechanismsofPOPs,particularlyinair,sinceitisacoremediaundertheGMP.

• Thereisaneedtoexpandandharmonizetemporaltrendmonitoringinhumansonaglobalbasistoassesshowlevelschangeandwhatimpactclimatechangehasontheselevels,asrecognizedbytherecentGMPreports.

COnClUSiOnS 49

• Computer-runmathematicalmodelsoftheenvironmentalfateofPOPsareimportanttoolsforpredictingtheresponseofPOPstochangesinenvironmentalfactors,includingclimate-relatedfactors.Thus,thereisaneedtobuildorimprovemodelsforforecastingPOPsfate,transportandimpactonexposureunderprojectedclimatechangescenarios.Forthecredibilityofmodels,evaluationofmodelresultswithfielddataisessential,whichrequiresthatadequatemonitoringdataareavailable.

• ThereisapoorunderstandingofthepotentialimpactsofachangingclimateonmicroorganismsandhowtheresponseofmicroorganismstoclimatechangemayaffectthedegradationofPOPsinsoilandwater.ItisuncertainwhetheranincreaseintemperaturewillincreasethemetabolicactivityofmicroorganismsandtherebytheircapacitytodegradePOPsorifthermalstresswillreducetheircapacitytodegradePOPs.Identificationofthetransformation/degradationproductsofPOPsthatmaybeformedinrelevantamountsundertheconditionsofclimatechangeisimportantforevaluatingtheeffectsonecosystemsandhumanpopulationsbecauseseveraldegradation/transformationproductsofPOPshavebeenfoundtopossesssignificanttoxiccharacteristics.

• TobetterassessPOPsexposurepathwaysandspeciesimpacts,thereisaneedtobetterunderstandhowfoodwebstructureswillbeaffectedbyclimatechange.

• Thereisaneedfortoxicologystudiesofsomeofthenewlylisted(non-legacy)POPssuchasthePBdesandperfluorinatedsubstances,andsomeofthosesubstanceswhichhavebeenidentifiedasPOPsbutnotyetlistedintheStockholmConventionannexes,includingendosulfan,HBCdsandSCCPs.ThestudiesneedalsotoconsidertheeffectsofmixturesofPOPsnowfoundinvariousregionsoftheworld.Bothtypesofstudies(exposurestosinglesubstancesandtomixtures)areneededforestimatingtheeffectsofenvironmentallyrelevantconcentrationsofPOPsonhumanpopulationsandotherbiota.

• ThereisaneedtobetterunderstandthecombinedeffectsofPOPsexposureandclimatechangestressesonhumanpopulationsandotherbiota.Whilemanyofthepotentialstressorshavebeenidentified,therearefewlaboratoryandevenfewerfieldstudiescombiningclimatechangestresswithPOPsexposure.

• ItisnotalwaysclearwhetherclimatechangemitigationoptionshavefullytakenintoaccountnegativeinfluencesassociatedwithproductionanddistributionofunintentionallyproducedPOPs.Forinstance,‘carboncaptureandstorage’strategiestoreducereleasesofCO₂totheairwillalsocapturePOPsandothercontaminantswhicharethentransferredtolandand/oraquaticenvironments,resultinginfurtherenvironmentalcontaminationofPOPs.ItisuncertainhowmuchcooperationiscurrentlyinplacebetweenpolicymakerswhoaddressclimatechangeandthosewhoaddressPOPsmanagementdomesticallyandinternationally.


Chapter 8. Policy recommendations MAriAnnLlOyd-SMiTHandMAriOYArTO

ThereareseveralsignificantissuestobeaddressedforthesuccessfulimplementationoftheStockholmConventiononanational,regionalandglobalscale.GovernmentsstillfacechallengesandresponsibilitiesforthelegacyPOPs,theyneedtoaddressnewlylistedPOPs,andtheyneedtoupdateNationalImplementationPlansinaccordancewiththeirrespectiveobligations.OthersubstanceswithPOP-likecharacteristicsarealsounderreviewforinclusionintheStockholmConventionandmaybecomefutureobligationsundertheStockholmConvention.ThechallengesoffindingreplacementchemicalsandpracticestoaddresstheusesofsomeregulatedPOPsmaybeincreasedbecauseofdiverseclimaticconditionsgloballyandtherequirementundertheConventiontopreventthereplacementofonePOPwithanother.ClimatechangemaycomplicatetheimplementationoftheStockholmConventionevenfurtherbecauseofitspotentialtohaveadirectimpactonpresentandfuturemanagementofPOPs(e.g.,newuses,redistribution,changesinthefateofPOPs).

Previouschaptersofthisreporthighlightthatclimatechangerelatedeffectssuchastemperaturerise,increasedfrequencyandintensityofextremeweatherevents,andsealevelrisearelikelytointeractwithavarietyofenvironmentalstressors,includingexposuretoPOPs.WhiletheinteractionbetweenclimatechangeandPOPsisstillanewresearcharea,currentinformationprovidesevidencethatmanyoftheprobableeffectsofclimatechangearelikelytoenhancePOPscontaminationandincreasePOPsexposureinsomeregions,therebycounteractingeffortsundertheStockholmConventiontoeliminateorreducePOPsglobally.ThereisthereforeaneedforgreaterpreventionandprecautionwithrespecttoclimatechangeiftheobligationsoftheStockholmConventionaretoberealized.

Furthermore,andasdescribedinpreviouschaptersofthisreport,climatechangewillalsohaveimplicationsforthemeasurementoftheeffectivenessevaluationoftheStockholmConvention.Theeffectsofclimatechangeontherelease,transportandpartitioningofPOPshavethepotentialtocomplicatesignificantlytheinterpretationofmeasurementsofPOPsinenvironmentalmediaandinhumantissues.ThescientificreviewinthisreportconcludedthatfurtherstudiesshouldbeencouragedtoassessclimateinfluencesonlevelsofPOPsinenvironmentalmedia,aswellaspotentialnegativeimpactsonhumanandenvironmentalhealth.Inthisaspect,theworkoftheGMPisessentialtoprovideguidanceonmonitoringandaddressthescientificgapsanduncertaintiesthathavebeenidentifiedinthisreport.

Underconditionsofachangingclimate,thereisalsoagreaterurgencytoidentifyandsecurestockpilesandcontaminatedsitescontainingregulatedPOPsandtofocusondevelopingalternativesforPOPslistedinAnnexBoftheConvention.Thepolicyrecommendationsindicatedinsection8.2arebasedonthecurrentstateofthescienceandacknowledgetheimportantdatagapswhichneedtobefilledassoonaspossible.

8.1. Existing initiatives on POP s and climate change

Thereareseveralinternationalorganizationsandprogramsdedicatedtotheimprovementofknowledgeonsources,fateandimpactsofPOPsintheenvironment,aswellasontheimpactsofclimatechangeonhumanpopulationsandecosystems.BothscientificandpoliticalinitiativesexistforPOPsandforclimatechange(seeAppendix),butthereisanurgentneedforimprovedcoordinationamongtheseinitiativesandprogramstoensurethatefficiencyandbetterinformationexchangeispromoted.EquallyimportantistheneedtopromoteanapproachtoidentifyingandaddressingthecombinedimpactsofclimatechangeandexposuretoPOPs.Forinstance,thePOPsReviewCommittee(POPrC)oftheStockholmConventionandtheIntergovernmentalPanelon

POliCyreCOMMendATiOnS 51

ClimateChange(iPCC)arethetechnicalbodiesthatevaluatescientificdataandprovidesupportandrelevantrecommendationsfordecision-makingpurposestotheConferencesofthePartiestotheStockholmConventionandtheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange,respectively.Communicationandexchangeofinformationbetweenthesegroupscouldprovideimportantdataandsharedknowledgefrombothfields,andfacilitatetheassessmentofthecombinedeffectsofPOPsandclimatechange.

8.2. Science-based policy recommendations

Thefollowingrecommendationsreflectthemainneedsandinformationgapsidentifiedinthisreport:

1. Governmentsareurgedtoconsidertheknowledgegapsidentifiedinthisreportandtoencourageandsupportresearchtoimprove,harmonizeandconsolidateknowledgeontherelationshipbetweenPOPsandclimatechange,includingaspectssuchasenvironmentalreleases,transport,fate,degradationandeffectsofPOPsinachangingclimateatthenational,regionalandgloballevels.

2. GovernmentsareurgedtocontributetothedevelopmentofdecisionsupportsystemsthatincludemorereliablepredictionsoffuturereleasesandimpactsofPOPs,othersubstanceswithPOP-likecharacteristicsandclimatechange.Betterpredictivetoolswouldassistinthedevelopmentofimplementationstrategiestoestablishandmeetreleasereductiontargets.

3. TheUnePStockholmConvention’sGlobalMonitoringPlan(GMP)onPOPshasbeenestablishedusingorganizationalstructuresthatincludeSCRegionalOrganizationalGroups(rOGs)andtheSCGlobalCoordinatingGroup(GCG).Governmentsareurgedtocommittolong-termmonitoringnetworksandtorequestthattheGMPanditsadvisorygroups(rOGsandtheGCG)considertheimplicationsoftheinformationpresentedinthisreport.Governmentsshoulddevelopstrategiestoprovideasufficientknowledgebasefordecision-making,includingabetterunderstandingoftherelationshipsbetweenchangesinclimateandlevelsofPOPsintheenvironment.

4. Thepotentialforenhancedfrequencyandintensityofextremeweatherevents(e.g.,floodingandstorms)leadingtoincreasedreleases,modifiedusepatterns,andtheriskofremobilizationofPOPsfromwastedumps,soils,sediments,andotherreservoirsofPOPs,needstobeaddressedbyallstakeholders,includingtheindustrysector.Governmentsareurgedtoimprovethemanagement

ofexistingstockpilesandlandfillsaswellastheclean-upofcontaminatedsitesinareasatrisk ofwaterincursion,floodingandstormevents.Newlandfillsshouldnotbesitedinareasat riskofwaterincursion,floodingandstormevents.Additionally,inventoriesofexistingstockpiles

ofregulatedPOPsshouldbeupdatedandinventoriesforthenewlyregulatedPOPsshouldbedeveloped.ImprovedinformationisalsorequiredontheamountsandfrequencyofuseofrestrictedPOPslistedinAnnexBoftheStockholmConvention.

5. GovernmentsareurgedtosupportdevelopingcountriesandcountrieswitheconomiesintransitioninreducingtheiremissionsofPOPsandGHGs.Measuresmightinclude,butnotbelimitedto,bettercollaborationbetweentheStockholmConventionandtheBaselConventiontoreduceillegaldumpingofhazardouswasteortheuncontrolledexportofelectronicwastestocountrieswithpoordismantlingtechnologiesandpooroccupationalhealthprotection,approachesforreducingsignificantlyorrestrictingopenburningofwaste,andinformationonbestavailabletechnologyandbestenvironmentalpractices.

6. OwingtotheimpactsofclimatechangeandPOPsonthemostvulnerableanddisadvantagedpopulationssuchasmanyindigenouspopulationswhichrelyontraditional/localdiets(especiallyArcticpopulationsconsumingmarinemammalsandfish),thoseinmalariaaffectedregions,andthosewithpoorhealthandnutrition,governmentsareurgedtoidentifyandimplementmeasurestoreducethecombinedimpactsofclimatechangeandPOPsonthesemostvulnerablepopulations.


7. Governmentsareurgedtoexploreandassessopportunitiesforco-benefitsandmitigationmeasurestoreduceemissionsofGHGsandPOPsthroughappropriatelife-cyclemanagementoptionsandrelevantregulations,suchasprohibitionofopenburningofwaste,improvementofwastemanagementandmoreefficientcombustionprocesses.Theyarealsourgedtoexploreanddisseminateinformationonpossiblemitigationactivitiesandtheco-benefitsofmanagingPOPs,othercontaminantsandclimatechangeinanintegratedmanner.ToimproveunderstandingamongindustryandcivilsocietyofthecombinedeffectsofPOPsexposureandclimatechange,governmentsareencouragedtoprovidecapacitybuilding,education,outreachandawarenessprogramsforthegeneralpublicandthecorporateworld,inrelationtotheimpactsofPOPsandclimatechangeonhumanhealthandtheenvironment.

8. Anessentialsteptodevelopco-benefitstrategiesatinternational,nationalandlocalscaleswouldbetoestablishamandateformultidisciplinarystakeholderworkinggroups,fromexistingcommitteesonchemicals,wastesandclimatechange.TheroleofthesegroupswouldbetoenhancecollaborationandcommunicationbetweenkeyclimatechangeandPOPsstakeholders,whichmayincludevariousenvironmentalprotectionauthorities,governmentaldepartmentsandinternationalbodies(includingtheagenciesoftheUnitedNations),thehealthsector,industry,academia,andothernon-governmentalstakeholders.Co-operationbetweenallstakeholdersandreviewofexistinginternationalandregionalagreementsonPOPsmanagementandclimatechangemitigationwithrespecttohowtheycanworkbettertogetherwillbeessentialsuccessfactorsforsimultaneouslyreducingtheeffectsofPOPsandclimatechange.

8.3. Conclusions

Therecommendationslistedinsection8.2aresupportedbythecurrentlevelofknowledgeoninteractionsbetweenPOPsandclimatechange,whichrecognizesthatthesearebothrelevantenvironmentalstressorsintheirownrightandthat,incombination,theyarebothofgreaterharmtoenvironmentalandhumanhealth.Theyalsoaddresstheuncertaintyinthecurrentscientificinformation.

TheissuesofPOPsandclimatechangearebothglobalinnature.Acoordinatedresponseisneededfromdecision-makersallovertheworldtotakeactiontocounteractimmediate,mediumandlong-termeffectsonhumanhealthandecosystemsofconcurrentexposuretoPOPsandchangingclimates.

Giventhecurrentknowledgegaps,aprecautionaryapproachisneededtoguidethedevelopmentandadoptionofpolicyactionstoensurethathumanhealthandtheenvironmentareprotectedfromthenegativeimpactsofPOPsandclimatechangeandtheircombinedeffects.

Appendix 53

Appendix List of International Initiatives on Chemicals Research and Assessment

International Panel on Chemical Pollution TheInternationalPanelonChemicalPollution(iPCP)hasbeenestablishedasanorganizationfor

scientistsinvolvedinenvironmentalpollutionissuestobridgethegapbetweenscienceandpolicy.IntheiPCP,scientistsfromawiderangeofdisciplinescollaboratewithvariousscientificsocietiesandwitheachotherinaninterdisciplinarymannerwithanobjectiveofgainingcredibilityintheinterpretationofscientificfindingsforeffectivecommunicationbetweenscienceandpolicy.Themaintaskofthispanelistoprovidescientificsupportfordecisionmakersdealingwithpollutionproblemsandtheassessmentandmanagementofchemicals,bothatthenationalandinternationallevelandbasedoncurrentscientificknowledge.Further,iPCPwantstoofferexpertisegatheredwithiniPCPtodeliverstate-of-knowledgedocumentsontopicsrelatedtochemicals,healthandenvironmentforotherinterestedparties/stakeholders.Forfurtherreading,seewww.ipcp.ch.

Global Monitoring and Assessment Group AGlobalMonitoringandAssessmentGroup(GMAG)isbeingestablishedwithinUnePto

formulateschemesandtoolsforreportingprogressundermulti-lateralenvironmentalagreements(MeAs)andtoadviseonintegrityandrobustnessofmonitoringandassessmenttools.ItwillbejointlychairedbytheChemicalsBranchoftheDivisionofTechnology,IndustryandEconomics(dTie)andtheDivisionofEarlyWarningandAssessment(dewA).TheGMAGwillconsistofglobalstakeholderssuchastheUnePSciencePanel,academicinstitutions,andnormativeinstitutions.DecisionsbytheConferencesofthePartiesofmulti-lateralenvironmentalagreementsorfromtheInternationalConferenceonChemicalsManagement(iCCM)andtheirstakeholderswillfeedintotheGMAG.TheGMAGwillback-uptheschemestobedevelopedandtheassessmentsatvariousstagesofdevelopmentandwillprovidetraininganddistributionofthemethods,tools,andschemes.ThecontextfortheGMAGcanbeviewedundertheUnePProgrammeofWork,HarmfulSubstancesandHazardousWastePriorityArea,Project52-P5andat:http://intranet.unep.org/PdF/52-P5%20Project%20document%20and%20Budget%20SiGned.pdf

Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry TheSocietyofEnvironmentalToxicologyandChemistry(SeTAC)recentlypublisheda‘Call

forResearch’(Wenningetal.,2010)whichemphasizedtheimportanceoftheeffectsofclimatechangeoncontaminants,includingPOPs,tosupportregulatorydecisions.Theauthorscalledfortheemploymentof‘broaderframeworkstopreventmyopicviewsofenvironmentalissues’asclimatechangeisnowaglobalenvironmentalthreatthatwillimpactonallecosystemsintheyearstocome.SeTAChasproposedspecializedworkshopsofinternationalexpertstoproviderecommendationstoregulatoryagenciesonshort-andlong-termmeasuresforadaptiontochangingclimaticconditionsandtoidentifyfutureresearchneedstofilldatagaps.

Strategic Approach to International Chemicals Management TheStrategicApproachtoInternationalChemicalsManagement(SAiCM)providesapolicy

frameworktopromotechemicalsafetyaroundtheworld.AtthesecondsessionoftheInternationalConferenceonChemicalsManagementinGeneva,May2009,mentionwasmadethat"It was crucial, […], for the link between chemicals and climate change to be accentuated and for a global strategy on knowledge and information to be developed" (UneP,2009).Alsothat, "an international chemicals panel, along the lines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, could be the answer to filling the gaps in scientific knowledge for politicians and legislators and to enabling them to intensify their efforts to achieve global sustainable chemicals management"(seewww.saicm.org).


Arctic Council TheArcticCouncil(www.arctic-council.org)isahighlevelforumforintergovernmental

cooperationandcoordinationamongtheeightArcticStates,withtheinvolvementoftheArcticindigenouspeoples.TheArcticMonitoringandAssessmentProgramme(AMAP)isthegroupundertheArcticCouncilthatisresponsibleforongoingassessmentofpollutionandclimatechangeissuesintheArctic.AMAPalsocoordinatesthecircumpolarprogramtomonitorlevels,trendsandeffectsoflong-rangetransportedcontaminants(includingPOPs)andclimatechangeanditsimpacts.AMAPassessmentshavedocumentedthechallengesforenvironmentalprotectionandsustainabledevelopmentintheArcticcreatedbylong-rangetransportedpollutantsandclimatechange.OnthebasisofinformationprovidedbyAMAP,theArcticCouncil(2002,2009)hasrecognizedtheneedforfurtherunderstandingofthecombinedeffectsofPOPsandotherenvironmentalstressors,includingclimatechange,onhumanhealthandtheenvironmentintheArctic.AMAPhasanumberofexpertgroupsonclimatechangeandPOPsthatproduceassessmentsfortheArcticCouncilandcontributescientificinformationtoorganizationsincludingtheStockholmConventionandtheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.SeveralexpertsfromthisnetworkofAMAPscientistshavebeeninvolvedintheproductionofthisreport.

International POP s Elimination Network TheInternationalPOPsEliminationNetwork(iPen),apublicinterestnetworkof700organizations

in100countrieshasinvestedinandconductedchemicalmonitoringactivitiesrelatedtoPOPsandotherchemicalsofconcernsince2004.iPenhasfocusedongeneratinganalyticaldataindevelopingcountriesandcountrieswitheconomiesintransitioninordertoassisttheassessmentandenvironmentallysoundmanagementofchemicalsinthosecountries.InitiativeshaveincludedmonitoringhumanbreastmilkforPOPsinseveralcontinentsandthemonitoringofPOPsinchickeneggsin17countries.iPen’smonitoringandassessmentofPOPswaslinkedtocurrentwastemanagementpractices(includingincineration)inthosecountrieswhichdidnotadequatelyaddressco-benefitsrelatedtoreductionsinGHGsandunintentionallyproducedPOPs,allofwhicharepartoftheenvironmentallysoundmanagementofchemicals.

ReFerenCeS 55

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62

Acronyms

γ-HCH Gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane(alsoknownaslindane) 2,3,7,8-TCdd 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin AMAP ArcticMonitoringandAssessmentProgramme BAT Bestavailabletechniques(ortechnologies) BeP Bestenvironmentalpractices CO₂ Carbondioxide dde Dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene ddT Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane GCG GlobalCoordinationGroup GeF GlobalEnvironmentFacility GHG Greenhousegas GMP GlobalMonitoringPlan HBCds Hexabromocyclododecanes HCB Hexachlorobenzene HCH Hexachlorocyclohexane nAO NorthAtlanticOscillation PAHs Polycyclicaromatichydrocarbons PBdes Polybrominateddiphenylethers PCBs Polychlorinatedbiphenyls PCdds Polychlorinateddibenzo-p-dioxins PCdFs Polychlorinateddibenzofurans PeCB Pentachlorobenzene PentaBde Pentabromodiphenylether PFC Perfluorinatedcompound PFOA Perfluorooctanoicacid PFOS Perfluorooctanesulfonates PFOS-F Perfluorooctanesulfonylfluoride POM Particulateorganicmatter POPs Persistentorganicpollutants SCCPs Short-chainedchlorinatedparaffins Tdi Tolerabledailyintake UneP UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme UV Ultraviolet

Citation:UneP/AMAP,2011.ClimateChangeandPOPs:PredictingtheImpacts.ReportoftheUneP/AMAPExpertGroup.SecretariatoftheStockholmConvention,Geneva.62pp.

Reportproduction:Productionmanagement:SimonWilson,AMAPSecretariatTechnicalandlinguisticediting:CarolynSymon([email protected])Designandlayout:NelPunt([email protected]) ©Photographs:Cover.DavidMalin/ScienceFaction/CorbisPage10.NicoleDuplaix/CorbisPage13.NathanBenn/Ottochrome/CorbisPage17.PaulSouders/CorbisPage18.PaulSouders/CorbisPage21.TomNebbia/CorbisPage26.WendyStone/CorbisPage29.GalenRowell/CorbisPage40.B&CAlexander/ArcticPhotoPage44.PaulHardy/Corbis

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