Commodities Weekly Tracker, 1st April 2013

7/28/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 1st April 2013

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Commodities & Currencies

Weekly Tracker


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Commodities Weekly TrackerContents

Returns

Non Agri Commodities Currencies

Agri Commodities

Non-Agri Commodities

Gold

Silver

Copper Crude Oil

Currencies DX, Euro, INR

Agri Commodities

Chana

Black Pepper Turmeric

Jeera

Soybean

Refine Soy Oil & CPO

Sugar

Kapas

Monday | April 1, 2013


3/20

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | April 1, 2013

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0.3

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(1.3) (1.4)(1.5)

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(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0Currencies Weekly Performance


4/20


3.8

2.1

(0.7)(1.2)

(1.8)

(2.4) (2.5) (3.0)

(4.0)(4.5)

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(0.5)

0.51.5

2.5

3.5

Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance


5/20

*Weekly Performance for April contract



6/20


GoldWeekly Price Performance

Spot gold prices declined around 0.7 percent in the last week. The yellow

metal touched a weekly low of $1589.49.36/oz and closed at $1596.17/oz inlast trading session of the week.

In the Indian markets, prices fell by 0.8 percent taking cues from spot gold

prices and closed at Rs.29443/10 gms on Friday after touching an intra-day

low of Rs. 29342/10 gms in the last week. Appreciation in the Indian rupee

exerted downside pressure.

Factors that influenced downside in gold prices

Finance ministers from European union approved the bailout package to

Cyprus, weakening the demand for safe haven.

Further, reopening of banks in Cyprus reduced the concerns over deepening

ofEuropes debt crisis also kept investors away from safe haven. Additionally,

strength in Dollar index (DX) coupled with mixed global market sentiments

also added downside pressure.

However, US Federal Reserve decision to continue with its lose monetary

policy coupled with unfavorable jobless claim data from US cushioned sharp

downfall in prices.

Outlook

In the coming week, we expect gold prices to trade on a negative note as a

result of European Finance Ministers agreeing a bailout package for Cyprus

coupled with tension in Korea thereby affecting the demand for gold.

Additionally, strength in the DX will add more pressure on the prices.

Depreciation in Indian Rupee will prevent sharp fall in prices on MCX.

Weekly Technical Levels

Spot Gold : Support 1,584/1,575 Resistance 1,608/1623. (CMP: $1598.30)

Sell MCX Gold June between 30,130-30,160, SL-30,305, Target -29,850. (CMP

- 30043)

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

29,000

29,500

30,000

30,500

31,000

31,500

MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance

MCX-Near Month Gold Futures -Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures -$/oz

79.0

79.5

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.5

82.0

82.5

83.0

83.5

84.0

1,550

1,570

1,590

1,610

1,630

1,650

1,670

1,690

Spot Gold Vs US Dollar Index

Spot Gold -$ /oz US Dollar Inde x


7/20


SilverWeekly Price Performance

Spot silver declined 1.2 percent in the last week. The white metal prices

touched a low of $28.09 /oz in the last week and closed at $28.32/oz in the

last trade of the week.

On the domestic front, prices fell by 1.0 percent taking cues from spot

silver prices and closed at Rs. 53564/kg on Friday after touching a weekly

low of Rs. 53250/kg. Appreciation in the Indian rupee exerted downside

pressure.

Factors that influenced downside in silver prices

Fall in gold prices.

Decline in base metals pack coupled with strength in the DX.

Unfavorable economic data from US. Additionally, United Kingdom (UK) GDP contracted at 0.3 percent in Q4 of

2012 kept prices under pressure.

However, finance ministers from EU approved bailout package to Cyprus

and reopening of Cyprus banks reduced the worries over deepening of

Europes debt crisis prevented sharp decline in prices.

Outlook In the coming week, we expect silver prices to trade lower taking cues fall

in the gold prices coupled with downside in base metals.

Additionally, strength in the DX will exert more downside pressure on the

prices.

In the domestic markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee will cushion

sharp fall on the prices on the MCX.


Spot Silver: Support 28.02/27.62 Resistance 28.86/29.30. (CMP:28.03)

Sell MCX Silver May Between 54,180-54,230, SL-54,701, Target -

53,250/51,500. (CMP:52909)

28

29

29

30

30

31

31

32

32

53,000

54,000

55,000

56,000

57,000

58,000

59,000

60,000

MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance

MCX-Near Month Silver Futures -Rs/ kg Comex Silver Futures -$/oz

79.0

79.5

80.0

80.5

81.081.5

82.0

82.5

83.0

83.5

84.0

28.0

28.5

29.0

29.5

30.0

30.5

31.0

31.5

32.0

32.5

Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index

Spot Sil ve r -$ /oz US Dol lar Inde x


8/20


CopperWeekly Price Performance

Copper prices fell by 1.8 percent in the previous week. The red metal touched a

weekly low of $7,522/tonne and closed at $7,533.25/tonne in the last trading

session of the week.

On the domestic front, prices declined by 1.5 percent and closed at Rs. 413/kg on

Friday after touching a low of Rs 412.6/kg in the last week. Appreciation in the

Indian rupee added downside pressure.

Copper Inventories

LME copper inventories gained around 1.3 percent in the last week and stood at

569,775 tonnes as on 28th March, 2013 as against 562,475 tonnes as on 22nd

March, 2013.

Copper inventories in the warehouse monitored by the Shanghai rose by 3.5percent and stood at 247,591 tonnes for the week ending on 29th March, 2013.

Factors that influenced downside in the copper prices

Negative economic data from US coupled with strength in the DX.

Rise in the LME and Shanghai Copper inventories.

Further, United Kingdom (UK) GDP contracted at 0.3 percent in Q4 kept prices

under pressure.

However, approval of bailout package to Cyprus by EU finance ministers and

reopening of banks in Cyprus prevented sharp fall in prices.

Outlook

Copper prices are expected to trade on a negative note on the back of rising

inventories coupled with weak global market sentiments.

Further, Chinas manufacturing grew at slow pace will also add pressure on prices.

Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will restrict sharp fall in the prices on the MCX.


LME Copper: Support 7400/7200 Resistance 7590/7820. (CMP: $7533.25)

Sell MCX Copper April between 415-417, SL-421, Target -398. (CMP:405.95)

410

415

420

425

430

435

440

445

450

455

7,400

7,500

7,600

7,700

7,800

7,900

8,000

8,100

8,200

8,300

8,400

LME and MCX Copper Price Performance

LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)

7,400

7,500

7,600

7,700

7,800

7,900

8,000

8,100

8,200

8,300

8,400

318000.00

368000.00

418000.00

468000.00

518000.00

568000.00

LME Copper v/s LME Inventory

Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)


9/20


Crude OilWeekly Price Performance

On a weekly basis, Nymex crude oil prices increased around 3.8 percent.

On the domestic bourses, prices gained by 4.2 percent and closed atRs.5,305/bbl on Thursday after touching a weekly high of Rs.5320/bbl.

Appreciation in the Indian Rupee restricted sharp upside in the prices on the

MCX.

US Energy Department Facts and Figures

As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories

increased more than expected by 3.3 million barrels to 385.90 million barrels

for the week ending on 22nd March 2013.

Gasoline stocks fell by 1.6 million barrels to 221.20 million barrels and whereas

distillate stockpiles dropped by 4.5 million barrels to 115.30 million barrels forthe last week.

Factors that influenced upside in crude oil prices

Rise in the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) coupled with better revised

consumer sentiments data from the country.

However, sharp upside in the prices was capped on account of strength in the

DX. Rise in crude oil inventories also prevented further gains in the prices.

Outlook

We expect crude oil prices to trade on a positive note on the back of rise inChinas manufacturing data leading to expectations of rise in demand for the

fuel.

Additionally, unrest between North Korea and South Korea will also support an

upside in the prices.

Depreciation in the Rupee will act as a positive factor for prices on the MCX.


Nymex Crude Oil: Support: 96.10/94.80 Resistance 99.70/101.50 (CMP:96.79)

Buy MCX Crude April between 5310-5290, SL-5200, Target -5510.(CMP:5123)

90.0

91.0

92.0

93.0

94.0

95.0

96.0

97.0

98.0

4,900

4,950

5,000

5,050

5,100

5,150

5,200

5,250

5,300

5,3505,400

Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance

MCX crud e o il (Rs/ bb l) NYMEX Crude Oi l ($/bb l)

360

365

370

375

380

385

390

Crude Oil In ventories (mn barrels)


10/20


11/20


EuroWeekly Price Performance

The Euro depreciated by 1.3 percent in the last week. The Euro touched a low of

1.275 in the last week and closed at 1.2814 against dollar on Thursday.

Factors that influenced downside movement in the Euro

Worries over safety of financial asset in Cyprus increased as nation bailout plan

to tax bank depositors.

Political uncertainty in Italy.

Strength in the DX.

Unfavorable economic data from the region.

News

German Retail Sales increased by 0.4 percent in February as against a rise of 3

percent in January. German Unemployment Change increased by 13,000 in the

month of February.

GfK German Consumer Climate remained unchanged at 5.9-mark in the month

of March. German Import Prices rose by 0.3 percent in February as against a

gain of 0.1 percent in January. Italian Retail Sales declined by 0.5 percent in

January from fall of 0.1 percent a month ago.

French Consumer Spending declined by 0.2 percent in February as against a fall

of 0.9 percent a month ago. Italian Prelim Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 0.3

percent in March from 0.1 percent in February.

Outlook

We expect the Euro to trade on negative note on the back of weak global market

sentiments coupled with expectation of unfavorable economic data from

Europe. Further, worries among the investors that the Cyprus bank restructuring

may be used as a model for other European nations endangering depositors and

bond holders will act as a negative factor for currency.


EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.270/1.250 Resistance 1.297/1.311 (CMP: 1.281)

1.275

1.285

1.295

1.305

1.315

1.325

1.335

1.345

1.355

1.365

Euro/$ - Spot

69.0

69.5

70.0

70.5

71.0

71.5

72.0

72.5

73.0

EURO/INR - Spot


12/20

Chana


Weekly Price Performance

Chana futures traded with a negative bias last week on account of increasing

arrival pressure of the new crop. However, strong demand from the stockists

supported prices at lower levels.

On a weekly basis, Chana spot as well as futures settled 3.26% and 1.33% lower.

Increasing arrivals exerting downside pressure on prices

Arrivals of new crop has gained momentum across major producing states and

thus prices have declined considerably in the last week due to supply pressure.

However, prices may not fall below their MSP (Rs 3200 per qtl), as demand will

emerge at such low levels. Also, farmers may not sell their produce below these

levels.

Bumper Chana output estimated for 2012-13 season According to the final figures from ministry of agriculture dated 22nd February

2012, Chana sowing is 3.6% higher at 95.15 lakh ha compared to previous year.

Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is

estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13.

Chana imports declined in the month of February 2013

According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to 0.46

lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during the previous

month.Outlook

Increasing arrival pressure is expected to keep chana prices on the downside.

However, robust buying by the stockists at lower levels may limit the downside

and support prices at lower levels.

Weekly Strategy

Sell NCDEX CHANA May between 3470-3520, SL -3600, Target - 3340 / 3320.


13/20

Black Pepper

Source: Reuters & Angel Research



Pepper Futures traded on a mixed note last week. Good demand for the Kerala

crop supported prices at lower levels. Low stocks and delay in harvesting of thefresh crop also supported prices. However, higher arrivals of the new crop from

Karnataka and lower overseas demand pressurized prices at higher levels.

The Spot as well as the Futures settled 0.54% and 0.07% lower w-o-w.

Indian Pepper is being offered at $6,925/tn (C&F NY). Vietnam and Brazil Austa is

quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn and $6,600/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn

Averages daily arrivals stood at 25 tn while offtakes stood at 25 tn last week.

Expectations of higher output in 2012-13

According to IPC, Pepper production is expected around 55,000 tn in 2013 and

carryover stocks of about 15,066 tn.

According to market sources India exported 12,000 tn of pepper in 2012.

Global updates

Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn vis--vis 3.17 lk tn in

2011. Vietnam pepper exports in 2012 stood at 116,962 mt. Pepper production

from Vietnam decreased to 1.05 lk tn in 2012 from 1.1 lk tn in 2011. Harvesting of

the fresh crop from Vietnam will commence in the coming days.

Exports from Brazil during Jan-Nov 2012 are reported at 25900 tn, as against

32650 tn in the same period last year, down by about 20%.Outlook

Pepper Futures is expected to trade on a mixed note this week. Good interstate

demand for the Kerala pepper is likely to support prices. Low stocks coupled with

lower supplies and lack of stocks for delivery due to lock up of pepper in the

NCDEX accredited warehouses may also support prices. However, arrival pressure

of the inferior quality crop from Karnataka may pressurise prices at higher levels.

Weekly Strategy NCDEX Pepper May Trend Sideways. S2- 34900, S1- 35400, R1- 36350, R2- 36700.

Source: Reuters & Angel Research.


14/20

Turmeric

Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

Commodities Weekly Tracker


Turmeric Futures declined for the second consecutive week on account of arrival

pressure of the new crop. Higher carryover stocks also pressurized the prices.

However, overseas as well as domestic demand supported prices prevented a

sharp downside in the spot prices. Lower output expectations for 2012-13 crop on

the back of poor sowing also supported the prices. Sowing is reported to be 30-

35% lower compared to last year.

The farmers are reportedly keeping around 12 lakh bags of turmeric with them.

Stocks in Nizamabad reported around 6.5 lakh bags, which is lower than Erode.

According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown region (Southern

Peninsula) is reported at 10% below normal. The spot as well as the Futures

settled 1.05% and 2.16% lower w-o-w.

Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season

Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as

well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th

October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower

as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha).

Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50% lower compared to last

year and is expected around 45-50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is reported

at historical high of 90 lakh bags/ 10.62 lakh tns.Outlook

Turmeric is expected to recover from lower levles due to good demand from the

overseas as well as the domestic markets. Lower production estimates coupled

with arrivals of good quality crop may also support prices at lower levels.

However, higher supplies and an increase in the margin may pressurize prices. at

higher levels. Huge carryover stocks may also keep prices at check.

Weekly Strategy Buy NCDEX Turmeric May between 6330-6380, SL -5990, Target - 6880 / 6950.




15/20

Jeera

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.

Commodities Weekly Tracker


Jeera traded on a mixed note with a negative bias last week due to higher arrivals

of the new crop. However, good overseas as well as domestic demand cushioned

the downside. Sowing in Gujarat was reported at 3.244 lk ha till Jan 13. Last 3

years average sowing is 3.189 lk ha. Stocks are reported at around 5-6 lk bags.

The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.31% and 0.1% lower w-o-w.

Second consecutive year of higher output

Indias 2013 Jeera output is estimated at 38-40 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), at par

with the production in 2012. However, increase in the exports due to supply

concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the prices

and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.

Global supply concerns boost Jeera exports According to market sources, the exports target of 45,000 tn has already been

achieved. Total exports for 2012-13 season is now estimated at 60,000 tn.

Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions

between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They

have stopped shipments. Turkey may start offering its Jeera in the coming days.

International Scenario

According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tons while

production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% and

around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets.

Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,600/tn (c&f).

Outlook

Jeera may trade with a negative bias this week. Higher in arrivals of the new crop

may pressurise prices. However, overseas as well as domestic demand may limit

the downside. Farmers may not also sell their stocks at such low prices.

Weekly Levels Sell NCDEX Jeera May between 13450-13500, SL- 13750, Tgt- 13050/13000.




16/20

Soybean


Weekly price performance

Soybean traded on a bullish note in the beginning of the week on account of lower

supplies in the domestic markets. However, prices declined sharply tracking weaker

international markets..

CBOT Soybean settled sharply lower by 3.05% after USDA reported higher than

estimated stocks as on March 1.

US planting Intentions data

USDA released its planting intention data last week, which predicted plantings at

77.126 mn acres for 2013-14 season, lower than 78.394 mn acres.

Oilseeds output down 1.1% , soybean and mustard up 3.2% & 11.52%

According to the second advance estimates, 2012-13 oilseed output is pegged at

29.4 mn tn, down by 1.1%, while soybean and mustard seed output is peggedhigher at 12.9 mn tn and 7.36 lakh tn.

China Soybean Imports Hit by Brazil Shipment Delays

China's April imports will likely be less than 4.5 mn tn, lower than market

expectations of about 5 mn tn , due to severe port congestion in Brazil that has

delayed shipments. Rains in the key soy regions may also slow the pace of harvest.

Almost two-third of the harvesting is reported to be complete.

Outlook

Soybean prices are expected to trade with downward bias on account of lowerdemand for domestic soy meal. Further, higher US soybean acreage expectations

for 2013 may exert downside pressure on the international soybean prices and

thereby on the domestic markets too.

Strategy

Sell NCDEX Soybean May between 3680-3720, SL -3820, Target - 3525 / 3500


17/20

Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil


Weekly price performance

Edible oil complex declined sharply taking cues from KLCE palm oil futures

which declined as larger-than-expected U.S. soybean stockpiles continued toweigh on prices. Crude palm oil prices at MCX and KLCE settled 1.3% and

4..8% lower respectively While, Soy oil prices at NCDEX declined 0.3%.

Global Scenario

Malaysia's palm oil shipments for March edged up 2.8 percent to 1.36 million

tonnes compared to a month ago, driven by higher exports of refined

products, as per cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Service.

By end of June 2013, Malaysian palm oil stocks will dip below 2 mn tn and

Indonesian stocks would below 4 mn tn. However, after June prices will come

under pressure as low palm oil production cycle ends -Mistry.

Domestic Scenario

India's imports of palm oil could rise more than 17% in the year to October

2013 to stand at 9 mn tn, compared with 7.67 mn tn of palm oil in 2011/12 as

the edible oil is the cheapest available, despite an import duty.

India's vegetable oil imports fell about 17 percent to 969,175 tonnes last

month, with palm oil imports dropping to 805,362 tonnes.

Total stocks at the end of February rose around 12 percent from January to

about 2 mn tn (estimates include both stocks at ports and pipeline).

Strategy

Sell NCDEX Refined Soya Oil May between 685-690, SL -701, Target 668/665

Sell MCX CPO April between 465-470, SL -480, Target - 449 / 446


18/20

Sugar



NCDEX Sugar April futures declined 0.58% after the government released higher

quota for next six months.

Liffe sugar settled 1 percent lower last week on account of ample supplies from

Brazil. Expectations of abundant supplies from the 2013-14 harvest in the centre-

south of Brazil and other leading producers, such as Thailand, Mexico and the

United States, pressurized prices at higher levels.

Higher release under non-levy quota

The government released higher non levy quota for the period April-Sept 2013 to

10.4 mn tn. Increased supplies may keep sugar prices under check.

Indias 2012-13 sugar output seen at 24.6 mln T

India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30,higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn.

The country's sugar output in 2013-14 marketing year could decline to 22-23 mn

tn, as against 24.5-25 mn tn this year due to drought situation in Maharashtra.

Govt will take 'appropriate' decision on sugar decontrol

Pitching for decontrol of the sugar sector, Minister of State for Agriculture Tariq

Anwar said the government will take "appropriate" decision on the issue.

Barring two key regulations with respect to fixing sugarcane price and sharing of

70 per cent revenue by sugar firms with farmers, the Rangarajan Committeereport has suggested giving freedom to mills to sell sugar in the open market and

having a stable export and import policy .

Outlook

Although supplies continue to remain high in the domestic markets, we dont

expect sugar prices to decline much from the current low levels considering the

firm international markets. Further, crushing will now start declining amid lower

cane availability this season.

Strategy

Buy NCDEX SUGAR May between 2960-3000, SL -2890, Target - 3110 / 3130


19/20

Kapas/Cotton



After declining sharply in the previous week, MCX Cotton prices as well as ICE

Cotton gained 5.5 percent and 1.3 percent w-o-w as the US prospective planting

data reported lowest cotton crop acreage in four years.India to liquidate stocks from state reserves

lower supplies in the domestic markets and rising cotton prices have caused

concerns for textile industry, which is demanding government to direct CCI and

NAFED to offload the cotton stock to domestic mills.

CCI is expected to offload 4 lakh bales in the domestic market and NAFED will sell

3.63 lakh cotton bales from the first week of April 2013.

India cotton imports seen lower than earlier estimate

India's imports of cotton this year could reach 1.5 mn bales, missing earlierestimates of more than 2 mn as the govt may to start selling its stockpiles.

China to offload stocks from reserves

China, the worlds largest consumer, is expected to sell about 3 mn tn of cotton this

year from state reserves of around 10 mn tn.

US Cotton acreage to drop by 19 percent- US Prospective Planting Data

For 2013, NASS has released the Prospective Plantings report on 28th march 2013

wherein Cotton acreage is expected to decline drastically as a price slump and

demand erosion has pushed growers to shift in favor of more lucrative grain crops.

Based on a survey of 83,500 farmers, USDA estimated upland cotton plantings would

drop by 19 percent, or 2.3 million acres to 9.8 million acres.

Outlook

In the current week, we expect Cotton prices to trade with upward bias on

expectations of lower US planting data. Also, lower supplies in the domestic markets

may support an upside in the prices.

Strategy

Buy MCX Cotton April between 19000-19100, SL -18540, Target - 19800 / 19900


20/20

Thank You!

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.

Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 3083 7700Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness.

The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any

recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected]

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Documents

Commodities Weekly Tracker, 1st April 2013