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7/28/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 24th June 2013
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Commodities & Currencies
Weekly Tracker
7/28/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 24th June 2013
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Commodities Weekly TrackerContents
Returns
Non Agri Commodities
Currencies Agri Commodities
Policy Review
RBI
FOMC
Non-Agri Commodities
Gold Silver
Copper
Crude Oil
Currencies DX, Euro, INR
Agri Commodities
Chana
Black Pepper
Turmeric
Jeera
Soybean
Refine Soy Oil & CPO
Sugar
Kapas
Monday | June 24, 2013
7/28/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 24th June 2013
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 24, 2013
4.1
3.1
2.3
1.41.2
(0.9)
(1.7) (1.8)(2.0)
(1.0)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Currencies Weekly Performance
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 24, 2013
2.0
(0.6)
(1.5)
(3.5) (3.6)(4.1) (4.3)
(6.7)
(8.9)(9.0)
(7.0)
(5.0)
(3.0)
(1.0)
1.0
Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance
7/28/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 24th June 2013
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*Weekly Performance for July contract, Mentha Oil Cotton & CPO- June Contract,
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 24, 2013
tt
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 24, 2013
RBI Monetary Policy ReviewSilent on Interest Rates
Citing growth-inflation dynamics and recent developments in the
external sector, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept interest rates
unchanged as expected.
Indications for further changes in interest rates in the July13 policy
are currently mute but may change over time, given that the
monsoon this year is expected to be normal, thus reducing the
supply-side pressure and thereby easing inflation.
Fall in the WPI to 4.7 percent has not been a strong enough factor for
the central bank to reduce interest rates as food inflation remains
high.
While factors like distribution and supply of food are affecting food
inflation, measures to tackle the same need to be introduced. A good
monsoon progress on a pan-India scale ahead of time will help to
bring down food inflation in the coming months.
Developments on the external sector front, being one of the major
factors that drove the RBIs decision, need to be looked at closely. Sharp depreciation in the Rupee along with a widening of the trade
deficit due to a surge in gold imports has restricted interest rate cuts
by the RBI.
In its review, the central bank has indicated that the key to boosting
economic growth could be done through increasing investment by
creating a favorable and conducive environment for private
investment, improving project clearance and raising the role of public
investment.
This move by the RBI has largely dampened sentiments at a time
when the world economy is suddenly witnessing a slowdown in growth
momentum.
Recent measures in order to reduce the Current Account Deficit
(CAD) by way of curbing gold imports through restricting its supply and
increasing customs duty, it looks like the RBI is using indirect measures to
reduce economic hurdles and is also applying the same strategy to boost
economic growth.
Repo Rate 7.25%
Reverse Repo Rate 6.25%
Cash Reserve Ratio 4%
Bank Rate 8.25%
epo ate . Reverse Repo Rate 6.25 %
Cash Reserve Ratio 4%Bank Rate 8.25%
epo ate . Reverse Repo Rate 6.25 %
Cash Reserve Ratio 4%Bank Rate 8.25%
8.5
7
6
9
6.5
4.75
6.75
8.5
7.25
4.2
5.2
6.2
7.2
8.2
9.2
10.2
27-
04-
2001
28-
05-
2001
23-
10-
2001
28-
03-
2002
30-
10-
2002
3-
03-
2003
19-
03-
2003
25-
08-
2003
27-
10-
2004
26-
10-
2005
8-
06-
2006
31-
10-
2006
31-
03-
2007
25-
06-
2008
20-
10-
2008
8-
12-
2008
5-
03-
2009
19-
03-
2010
2-
07-
2010
16-
09-
2010
25-
01-
2011
3-
05-
2011
26-
07-
2011
25-
10-
2011
17-
04-
2012
19-
03-
2013
17-
06-
2013
Repo Rate (%)
6.5
5.5
4.5
6 6
3.25
5.25
7.5
6.25
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
77.5
8
27-04-2001
28-05-2001
23-10-2001
28-03-2002
30-10-2002
3-03-2003
19-03-2003
25-08-2003
27-10-2004
26-10-2005
8-06-2006
31-10-2006
31-03-2007
25-06-2008
20-10-2008
8-12-2008
5-03-2009
19-03-2010
2-07-2010
16-09-2010
25-01-2011
3-05-2011
26-07-2011
25-10-2011
17-04-2012
19-03-2013
17-06-2013
Reverse Repo Rate (%)
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 24, 2013
FOMC UpdateWithdrawal symptoms seen as Fed prepares to taper
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke confirmed that the US
economy was growing at a strong enough pace and that the central
bank could now begin with tapering the stimulus
World stocks, commodities and bonds slumped on this statement
However, US Treasury yields on the 10-year note rose to a 15-month
high of 2.36 percent on the day of the announcement
The Fed is more confident about US economic growth than before,
thus making the expected move more certain in the near future
However, Ben Bernanke left two cues in terms of the future as he saidthat the Fed could stop reducing its bond purchases or raise it again
if the job market does not stabilise
It was reiterated in the Feds policy meet that interest rates would
not be increased until the unemployment rate hits 6.5 percent or
lower, given that the inflation outlook remains below 2.5 percent
Also, the withdrawal process would begin once the unemployment
rate comes around the comfort level of 7 percent
The Dollar Index strengthened on Wednesday and Thursday but the
currency could weaken in the short-term as liquidity is expected to
continue until the pullback actually begins in the later part of the year
The panic seen after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernankes
announcement yesterday clearly shows that the world financial
markets witnessed withdrawal symptoms much ahead of the stimulus
pullback process.
Fear of removal of excess liquidity from markets and its impact on
the world economy led to sharp selling across risky asset classes
immediately after the Feds announcement.
Emerging markets are witnessing withdrawal symptoms already,
with capital flows receding and currencies depreciating.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are not finding India a very
attractive investment destination and the improving US economic
scenario is leading to a shift in investment patterns from emerging
and developing economies to the worlds largest economy the
US. The Indian economy too will face a repercussion of the withdrawal
and the domestic equities have seen a major negative reaction. A
rise in US Treasury yields is seen, while the Indian 10-year
benchmark yield is seen declining.
Arbitrage opportunity for FIIs is vanishing in the Indian markets due
to increase in hedging cost as Rupee has depreciated sharply.
Hence, Treasury yields in the US look more attractive at this point
in time, making the Indian bond market situation less attractive.
Emerging markets would face the burden of this withdrawal plan
as investors would move towards fixed income assets, while riskier
investment classes will face downside pressure.
World equity markets and the economy at large will undergo a
weak economic phase once the withdrawal begins. Capital flows to
emerging markets could be hit in a big way, thus affecting
economic fundamentals.
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 24, 2013
GoldWeekly Price Performance
Following Feds announcement, gold prices slumped sharply below $1300/oz levels
last week as the pullback in stimulus measures would lead to strength in the Dollar
Index and investors would move away from gold as a stronger dollar will make it moreexpensive for holders of other currencies
Spot Gold prices touched a weekly low of $1268/oz on Friday, falling around 7
percent over the week
On the MCX, prices touched a weekly low of Rs26,727/10gm on Friday, slipping 3.1
percent over the week
Fall in Indian markets was lower than that in the international markets due to the
Rupee depreciation factor
SPDR Gold Holdings fall below 1000 tonnes Reacting to the Feds announcement, ETF Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, fell to
999.56 tonnes on Wednesday, erasing more than $23 billion in the funds value
Over the year, holdings have slipped 26 percent and further decline in holdings could
be seen as the safe-haven status of gold has faded drastically
Increased Gold Imports Widen Trade Deficit in India
Gold and Silver imports jumped 90 percent in May13 to $8.3 billion from $4.4 billion
in May12.
Indias trade deficit has widened to a 7-month high in May13 to $20.1 billion from$16.9 billion in May12 . Trade deficit has widened due to a sharp increase in gold
imports coupled with a fall in exports. A high trade deficit affects the current account
deficit and the value of the Rupee
Merchandise exports slipped 1.1 percent to $24.5 billion and the weaker Rupee did
not help as world demand slowed while the government banned gold trading in
Special Economic Zones (SEZ)
Imports climbed around 7 percent, backed by rise in gold and silver imports
1,280
1,380
1,480
1,580
1,680
1,780
25,500
26,500
27,500
28,500
29,500
30,500
31,500
MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance
MCX-Near Month Gold Futures -Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures -$/oz
79.0
80.0
81.0
82.0
83.0
84.0
85.0
1,275
1,325
1,375
1,425
1,475
1,525
1,575
1,625
1,675
Spot Gold Vs Dollar Index
Spot Gold -$/oz US Dol lar Index
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 24, 2013
GoldCME raises margins on gold futures
Sharp selling in gold futures led the CME to increase margins on the
gold contracts on Thursday after prices fell to the lowest levels seen inSeptember 2010
Minimum cash deposit for gold traders will increase 25 percent to
$8800 per 100 ounce contract
Gold exports from SEZ allowed after value addition
Sharp decline in gold exports concerned the government, which then
allowed units in SEZs to export gold items after a minimum value
addition of 3 percent in gold jewelry and 5 percent in gold and precious
stone studded jewelry.
This measure would help to increase gold exports from India as gold
exports had taken a hit of $0.8 billion in May13.
Base Rate Cut
Indian government cut the gold base import price to $450/10 gms from
$459/10 gms
Reliance Cap to restrict gold backed loans
In the Indian markets, sentiments towards gold purchases is turning
mixed as Reliance Capital announces its decision to suspend gold sales This step by the company is taken In order to support the RBIs decision
to curb gold imports, reduce the current account deficit and help to
control the rising demand for the yellow metal
Reliance Capital has suspended sales of gold coins and sale of gold in
the physical form along with refinancing against gold, which is a very
big market in India
New subscriptions will also be suspended in the Reliance Gold Savings
Fund, which has a corpus of Rs2600cr
Stocks of Gold mining companies correct
The steep fall in gold prices led to selling pressure in stocks of gold mining
companies as margins would come under pressure due to low gold prices
With the yellow metal trading around the marginal cost of production,
gold miners are expected to witness a slow growth phase
US Commodity Futures Trading Commission Data (CFTC)
The latest CFTC report showed that hedge funds and money managers
have reduced their bullish bets on gold futures and options for the second
consecutive week
OutlookOver the week, gold prices in dollar terms are expected to trade lower as
sentiments towards the yellow metal have turned weak. With clear
indication that the Federal Reserve will begin its stimulus withdrawal in
the coming months, the Dollar Index is expected to strengthen, thereby
adding pressure on gold prices.
In the Indian markets, a sharp correction in prices will be cushioned due to
the depreciation in the Rupee. But the overall trend in the Indian markets
is also bearish.
Weekly Technical Levels
Spot Gold : Support 1,247/1,196 Resistance 1,321/1,370. (CMP:
$1282.5)
Sell MCX Gold August between 27,280-27,330, SL-27,551, Target -
26,500. (CMP: Rs 26,695)
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 24, 2013
SilverWeekly Price Performance
Spot silver prices slipped below the $20/oz crucial mark, falling around 9
percent over the last week. In dollar terms, prices touched a low of $19.35/oz
on Friday
In the Indian markets, prices corrected 5.2 percent over the week and on the
MCX, the near-month contract touched a low of Rs40,716/kg on Friday
ETF Performance
Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust increased around 0.8 percent last week to
10,073 tonnes
Demand slows despite sharp price correction
Silver prices have slipped around Rs41,000/kg levels currently from
Rs55,000/kg in June12
Despite a sharp fall in prices, huge stocks remain with domestic bullion
dealers. Demand is expected to revive in the festive season but the current
scenario remains weak from the demand perspective
Due to slowdown in the electronic industry, industrial demand for silver has
also taken a beating . Exports of silver items from India to the US and
Australia have also declined
Base-Rate Price cut
Indian government cut the base import price of silver from $737/kg to
$709/kg
Outlook A bearish trend is expected in silver prices over the week, with sharp losses in
the Indian market to be cushioned due to Rupee depreciation.
Weekly Technical Levels
Spot Silver: Support 19.10/17.80 Resistance 20.55/21.65. (CMP:$19.58)
Sell MCX Silver July between 42,500-42,550, SL-43,201, Target -40,200. (CMP:
Rs.40,661)
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
41,000
43,000
45,000
47,000
49,000
51,000
53,000
55,000
57,000
59,000
MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance
MCX-Near Month Silver Futures -Rs/ kg Comex Silver Futures -$/oz
79.0
80.0
81.0
82.0
83.0
84.0
85.0
19.5
21.5
23.5
25.5
27.5
29.5
31.5
Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index
Spot Si lver -$ /oz US Dol lar Index
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 24, 2013
CopperWeekly Price Performance
LME Copper prices slipped 3.5 percent last week, while prices on the MCX near-month
contract closed on a flat note, owing to Rupee depreciation in the last week
Prices hit a low of $6692/tonne on the LME and on the MCX prices slipped to a low ofRs401.9/kg last week
In dollar terms, prices have declined sharply and this indicates a bearish trend in the
commodity especially amid demand-side worries from China
Copper Inventories
On the LME and the SHFE, inventories jumped 7.5 percent and 3.2 percent to 664,850
tonnes and 189,209 tonnes respectively. Increase in inventories also acted as a bearish
factor on copper prices last week
Supply-side Action Freeport output starts, while strike at Codelco to begin Indonesia may allow mining operations at Freeport McMoran to begin after a
prolonged shutdown following the accidents. The miner has started some operations,
thereby erasing the supply-side threat
However, there is an expected strike on Wednesday at Codelco in Chile. Hence,
fundamentally, the supply-side support will remain but it will have little impact on
prices due to worries over Chinese economic slowdown
Asian participation on LME bourse increases
Asian participation on the LME has grown phenomenally, with demand from China
being a major contributor, as the country consumes around 40 percent of base metalsoutput on an annual basis
Transactions during Asian trading hours accounted for 16 percent of electronic trading
in the three-month futures contracts in 2012
Industrial metals turnover at the LME stood around $14.5 trillion as compared with $4
trillion on the Shanghai Futures Exchange
365
375
385
395
405
415
425
435
445
455
6,700
6,900
7,100
7,300
7,500
7,700
7,900
8,100
8,300
LME and MCX Copper Price Performance
LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)
6,700
6,900
7,1007,300
7,500
7,700
7,900
8,100
8,300
318,000
368,000
418,000
468,000
518,000
568,000
618,000
668,000
LME Copper v/s LME Inventory
Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 24, 2013
CopperNet short position in Copper rises
CFTC data showed that net short positions in copper increased sharply, marking the
most in more than two months
Negative Chinese economic data along with an overall slump in commodity prices has
led to a bearish view for the metal
Outlook
Copper prices are expected to trade with a negative bias during the week despite
supply-side concerns as a slowing Chinese economy coupled with Dollar Index strength
after the Feds announcement over the stimulus pullback will lead to pressure on prices
on the LME.
On the MCX however, sharp decline in prices are expected to be curtailed due to
weakness in the Rupee.Weekly Technical Levels
LME Copper: Support 6760/6630 Resistance 7010/7120. (CMP: $6671.0)
MCX Copper: Support 402.50/396.50 Resistance 413/418. (CMP: Rs 397.95)
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 24, 2013
Crude OilWeekly Price Performance
Nymex WTI crude oil prices declined 4.3 percent last week and tested a low of
$93.12/bbl
On the MCX prices fell marginally by 0.5 percent over the week due to Rupee
depreciation and oil touched a weekly low of Rs.5587/bbl
Inventories
Over the week, the inventory report was mixed as the API report showed a fall of
4.3 million barrels, while the EIA report showed an increase by 0.3 million barrels
Crude Oil Supply in the US
Domestic crude oil production outpaced imports in late May13 for the first time
since 1997 on account of increase in shale-led production
Commercial oil stocks of 394 million barrels around their highest levels since1980s
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecasted that US oil output would
touch 10 million barrels a day, rising 23 percent in two years
American oil demand is expected to average lower at 18.6 million barrels a day in
2013, falling for the third straight year
Fall in demand is due to decline in driving activity and rise in purchases of fuel-
efficient cars . In 2005, US demand stood at around 21 million barrels per day
For the first time since 1970s, US could start exporting oil
After the Arab oil embargo in 1973-74, the US had imposed a ban on oil exports,
triggering supply shortage and a sharp increase in prices
Due to advancement in oil production techniques such as hydraulic fracturing,
there is an increase in output that could outstrip refinery capacity in the near
future
Net petroleum imports in the US now account for 40 percent of demand as
against 60 percent in 2005
Domestic oil production in the US last year stood at a record of 766,000 barrels a
day
86.0
88.0
90.0
92.0
94.0
96.0
98.0
4,700
4,900
5,100
5,300
5,500
5,700
Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance
MCX crude oil (Rs/bbl) NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl)
361.3
360.3
363.1369.1
371.7
372.2
376.4
377.53
381.4
384
382.7
385.9
388.6 388.9
387.6
388.6
395.3 395.5
394.9 394.6
397.6
391.3
393.8
394.1
360
365
370
375
380
385
390
395
400
Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 24, 2013
Crude OilOil demand is the US falls in May13
Oil demand slipped more than 1 percent in May13 as compared with a
year earlier, marked by a sharp decline in usage of gasoline by 3.3percent
Consumption stood at a monthly average of 18.503 million tonnes inMay13, touching a two-year low
Gasoline demand fell to a 13-year low of 8.697 million barrels a day inMay13, per day use in gasoline fell 300,000 barrels from May12
Ultra-low- sulfur diesel use increased to 3.619 million barrels per day 5.1percent y-o-y in May13
Oil output in US
Output jumped almost 15 percent y-o-y to a 22-year high in May13 to7.287 million barrels per day, topping 7 million barrels a day for theseventh straight month
New drilling technologies such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontaldrilling has unlocked oil deposits trapped in shale rocks
Demand for imported crude oil will reduce with increase in indigenousproduction and high oil inventories
Oil imports in the US fell by around 1 million barrels per day ascompared to a year earlier to an 18-year May low of 7.916 millionbarrels per day
Crude oil stocks during May-end stood at 388.6 million barrels, touchingthe highest since 1981
Refinery processing of crude oil rose by 0.2 percent y-o-y to 15.208million barrels a day, thus increasing the output of major petroleumproducts
Outlook
A comfortable supply-side scenario along with increase ininventories is expected to be bearish for crude oil. Over the week,
prices are expected to trade on a negative note, with a stronger
Dollar Index adding additional pressure on prices.
Rupee depreciation will help cushion sharp decline in prices on the
MCX.
Weekly Technical Levels
Nymex Crude Oil: Support: 91.65/89.35 Resistance 95.45/97.80.
(CMP:$93.17)
Sell MCX Crude July between 5680-5700, SL-5801, Target -5520.
(CMP:Rs 5581)
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 24, 2013
Rupee and Dollar IndexWeekly Price Performance
Following Feds announcement, the Rupee touched an all-time low of 59.975 on
Thursday as a result of sell-off across risky asset classes and sharp strength in the Dollar
Index Over the week, the currency depreciated 3 percent against the dollar. Capital outflows
along with expectations of further removal of FII flows from the markets led to
weakness in the currency
Capital Flows
For the month of June 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.5,028.70 crores ($848.17 million)
as on 21st June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.78,176.40
crores ($14,504.80 million) till 21st June 2013.
Dollar Index
Federal Reserves announcement of tapering in stimulus measures pushed the DollarIndex to a weekly high of 82.32
Over the week the Dollar Index has strengthened more than 2 percent
US Treasury Yields Rise Sharply
Post the Feds announcement, US Treasury yields touched a 22-year high to around
2.36 percent last week, while a sell off was seen in the Indian bond market
Factors that affected currency movement
A high current account deficit, weak economic scenario and a slowing Indian economy
acted as a negative factor for the Rupee
An improving US economic scenario along with a pullback of stimulus measures by the
Federal Reserve has boosted the appeal of the Dollar Index
Outlook
Strength in the Dollar Index, capital outflows and weak domestic and global equity
markets are expected to leads to depreciation in the Rupee this week
Weekly Technical Levels
USD/INR MCX June Support 57.90/56.50 Resistance 60.40/61.60. (CMP: 59.26)
US Dollar Index: Support 81.10/79.80 Resistance 83.10/83.90. (CMP: 82.58)
53.0
54.0
55.0
56.0
57.0
58.0
59.0
60.0
$/INR - Spot
79.0
80.0
81.0
82.0
83.0
84.0
US Dollar Index
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 24, 2013
EuroWeekly Price Performance
The currency touched a low of 1.3098, falling around 1.7 percent over the
week, taking cues from a stronger Dollar Index
Although economic data from the Euro Zone was supportive last week,
the currency slipped as global markets were weak and as the Dollar Index
strengthened
Economic data failed to impress
A positive consumer confidence report failed to push the Euro higher, thus
showing the impact that market sentiments had on the currency
A slight improvement in Euro Zone manufacturing activity was also seen in the
past month
Italy boosts infrastructure spending
Italy, the fifth-largest European economy, announced its decision to boost
infrastructure spending.
Italian Prime Minister accepted measures to invest more than 3 billion
Euros of funds to develop roads and railway lines
This move will help to increase employment levels in the country as the
infrastructure spending is expected to create 30,000 jobs
Outlook Over the week, a stronger Dollar Index will continue to add pressure on
the Euro
Movement in the currency will be driven by the sentiments is the world
financial markets, which are still connected to the Feds announcement
made last week
Weekly Technical Levels
EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.3056/1.2990 Resistance 1.3210/1.3310. (CMP:
1.3104)
1.275
1.285
1.295
1.305
1.315
1.325
1.335
1.345
1.355
1.365
Euro/$ - Spot
69.0
70.0
71.0
72.0
73.0
74.0
75.0
76.0
77.0
78.0
79.0
EURO/INR -Spot
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Chana
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 24, 2013
Weekly Price Performance
Chana futures declined sharply in the early part of the last week due to good
pace of kharif pulses sowing and smooth advancement of monsoon. However,
receding supplies and strong demand led prices to recover towards later part. On a weekly basis, spot prices settled 0.28% higher while Chana July futures
settled 0.7% lower.
Cumulative rainfall 54 percent up for the period 1-19 June
For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this years monsoon has so
far upto 19 June been 54% above the LPA.
Pulses sowing higher amidst early monsoon
Kharif Pulses are mainly grown in the western and southern belts of India. 3.74
lakh ha of area is covered under kharif pulses as on 21st
June 2013 as againstnormal 1.2 lakh ha.
Chana output estimated at record high - Third Advance Estimates
According to the third advance estimates released last week, Chana output is
pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance
estimates of 8.57 million tonnes.
Seasonal pattern to restrict further downside in the prices
Chana prices tend to follow a seasonality pattern, wherein prices decline during
the harvesting period (Apr-May) and bottom out when arrivals reach their peak
in the month of May. Thus, taking cues from seasonality pattern , chana prices
are set to recover from the current month (June as arrival will decline gradually.
Outlook
Chana prices may trade range bound with upward bias as demand is strong at
current price levels while arrivals have started declining. Good sowing prospects
of kharif pulses may cap sharp gains in the prices.
Weekly Strategy
Buy NCDEX CHANA July between 3200-3190, SL -3140, Target - 3280 / 3290
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Turmeric
Source: Agriwatch & Reuters
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Weekly Price Performance
Turmeric Futures traded higher last week extending previous weeks gains on
account of declining arrivals. Heavy rains in the turmeric growing regions may
cause delay in the sowing. Also, fresh export enquiries supported prices at lowerlevels.
The spot as well as the futures settled 1.06% and 4.49% higher w-o-w.
Better than expected exports
Turmeric exports in 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn as against 79,500 tn in 2011-12.
Commencement of sowing of Turmeric for the 2013-14 season
The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 19/06/2013 stood at 0.01 lakh
hectares. Sowing last year commenced late due to drought conditions. Normal
sowing for the season is 0.68 lakh hectares. Production of turmeric declined in2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as well as lower turmeric prices.
Lower production in the 2012-2013 season
Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50% lower compared to last
year and is expected around 45-50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is reported
at historical high of 90 lakh bags/ 10.62 lakh tns.
Outlook
Turmeric is expected to continue to gain this week as lower arrivals coupled with
improvement in the overseas demand ahead of Ramadan may support prices.However, the carryover stocks are huge, which may cap sharp gains and
pressurize prices. Arrivals of monsoon may also lead to improvement in sowing.
The progress of monsoon needs to be tracked carefully as this may affect the
acreage as well as the yield of the crop.
Weekly Strategy Buy NCDEX Turmeric July between 5850 5830, SL 5550, Target 6300.
Monday | June 24, 2013
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.
7/28/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 24th June 2013
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Jeera
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Weekly Price Performance
Jeera traded on a positive note last week on account of good overseas as well as
local demand. However, good arrivals coupled with higher production estimates
capped sharp gains. About 25-30% of the new crop from Gujarat has already beenexported to Singapore, Europe & Dubai.
The spot as well as the July Futures settled 1.95% and 3.93% higher w-o-w.
Second consecutive year of higher output
Indias 2013 Jeera output is estimated at 40-45 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), higher
than 40 lakh bags in 2012. However, increase in the exports due to supply
concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the prices
and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.
Global supply concerns boost Jeera exports Jeera exports in 2012-13 stood at 79,900 tn, as against 45,500 tn last year.
The ongoing tensions in Syria and Turkey, coupled with output concerns has led to
supply concerns, and thus, exports have been diverted to India.
International Scenario
According to reports, production in Turkey is reported around 8,000-10,000
tonnes while production in Syria is expected to be lower, raising supply concerns
in the international markets.
Currently, Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,510/tn(FOB Mumbai).
Outlook
Jeera is expected to trade higher this week on expectations of good overseas
demand. Also, declining arrivals may support prices. However, higher production
figures this season may cap sharp gains and pressurize pries at higher levels.
Good progress of the monsoon may also limit the upside in the prices.
Weekly Levels Buy NCDEX Jeera July between 13500 13550, SL 13150, Tgt 14000/14100.
Monday | June 24, 2013
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.
7/28/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 24th June 2013
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Soybean
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 24, 2013
Weekly price performance
Soybean prices remained positive in the early part of the session as delayed US soy
planting raised concerns over supplies. However, with good progress of monsoon
and higher sowing in the domestic markets, soybean prices declined sharply towardsthe later part of the week. On a weekly basis July futures as well as spot settled
around 1% and 0.3% lower w-o-w.
CBOT Soybean Futures declined 1.53% as less threatening weather forecasts for late
plantings and good development of crops across major growing belts dampened
positive market sentiments.
Commencement of Kharif Sowing
As per the Ministry of Agriculture, oilseeds sowing is completed under 8.13 lakh ha
against normal 3.37 lakh ha.
Groundnut was sown in 5.56 lakh ha against 2.21 lakh ha sown during the sameperiod last year. Soybean was planted on 1.32 lakh ha, against 0.16 lakh ha last year.
India's soy meal Exports Fall by 57 Percent during FY13-14 SEA
Indias soy meal exports for the month of May 2013 were 96,492 tonnes, lower by
32.33 percent from 142,588 tonnes a year ago.
USDA to release planting report on 28th June
US department of agriculture is schedule to release its planting report on Friday this
week.
In its preliminary report released on 28th March 2013, USDA estimated Soybeanacreage around 77.1-million acres in 2013, the fourth highest acreage on record,
but down marginally by 0.13 percent from last year.
Outlook Soybean is expected decline this week on higher output expectations in the coming
season amidst increased sowing and good monsoon. Prices may also take cues from
the USDA planting report which is schedule to release on Friday.
Strategy
Sell NCDEX Soybean July between 3830 - 3850, SL - 3975, Target - 3680 / 3650
7/28/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 24th June 2013
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Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 24, 2013
Weekly price performance
Domestic edible oil prices continued with its upward trend in the initial part of
the week on account of weakness in the Indian rupee along with firminternational markets. However, prices declined sharply in the second half of
the week amidst broad sell off in commodities caused on concerns the U.S.
Federal Reserve may phase out stimulus. CPO managed to settle higher by
1.79% last week as rupee continued to weaken. However, Ref Soy oil settled
0.5% lower taking cues from the international markets.
Global Scenario
Malaysian palm oil products Exports from June 1-20 rose 16 percent to
928,810 tons from shipped during May 1-20. Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm
oil producer, will set its crude palm oil export tax for July at 4.5 percent.Domestic Scenario
As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India
Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 40.2% to 917,964 tn
in May, after dropping for 3 months, mainly due to surge in palm oil imports.
India's refined palm oil imports hit a record high in May by jumping 47.5
percent from April. The world's top buyer of vegetable oils imported 373,837
tonnes of refined palm oil in May.
Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted
before the new planting season for soybean.
Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on May 1 stood at 670,000 tn, the trade body
said, off a record of 930,000 tn on March 1. Stocks were still on the higher
side despite the decline in monthly imports.
Strategy
Buy NCDEX Ref Soy Oil July Support 1 - 688, Support 2 680 and Resistance 1-
706,Resistance 2 - 712
MCX CPO July between 500 498, SL 487, Target 520/525 (CMP 505.40)
7/28/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 24th June 2013
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Sugar
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 24, 2013
Weekly Price Performance
Sugar prices declined last week after the government said that it will not increase
the import duty until September 2013. Also, good progress of monsoon in the
drought ridden state of Maharashtra has eased concerns over output.
Liffe Sugar recovered from lower levels after touching 3 year low in the preceding
week on account of short coverings. Prices have declined sharply on account of
3rd year of global sugar surplus.
Sugarcane acreage down 10 percent as on 14th June
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 44.55
lakh ha as compared to 49.3 lakh ha last year as drought affected Maharashtra
and Karnataka have reported lower area.
After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected todecline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings.
India sugar reserves at five-year high set to avert imports
Sugar inventories in India, are poised to surge by 37% to 9.2 million tonnes at the
start of October, a five-year high as exports halt because of slumping global
prices. Exports have plunged to about 35,000 tonnes since 1 October from 3.4
million tonnes in 2011-2012.
Brazil's CS sugar output up 40 percent yoy
Sugar and ethanol mills in Brazil's main center-south cane belt made strong
progress harvesting record crop through mid-May, producing more than twice the
amounts of sugar and ethanol than they did from last season's smaller cane crop.
Mills in the region benefited from dry weather in late April and early May and
produced mn tn of sugar, up 40 percent from a year ago.
Outlook
Sugar prices may correct tracking god monsoons as well as governments refusal
to impose import duty. However, lower production estimates may support prices.
Strategy
NCDEX SUGAR July between 3030-3040, SL -3075, Target - 2970 / 2950.
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C di i kl k
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 24, 2013
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