Commodities Weekly Tracker, 11th March 2013

7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 11th March 2013

1/20

Commodities & Currencies

Weekly Tracker


2/20

Commodities Weekly TrackerContents

Returns

Non Agri Commodities Currencies

Agri Commodities

Non-Agri Commodities

Gold

Silver

Copper Crude Oil

Currencies DX, Euro, INR

Agri Commodities

Chana

Black Pepper Turmeric

Jeera

Soybean

Refine Soy Oil & CPO

Sugar

Kapas

Monday | March 11, 2013


3/20

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | March 11, 2013

2.6

0.5

(0.1)

(0.8)(1.0)

(1.2)(1.7)

(3.6)(4.0)

(3.0)

(2.0)

(1.0)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0Currencies Weekly Performance


4/20


5.0

1.4 1.4

0.5 0.4 0.2

(0.6)

(2.1) (2.4)(2.5)

(1.5)

(0.5)

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance


5/20

*Weekly Performance for April contract; CPO and Mentha Oil March 2013 contract;



6/20


GoldWeekly Price Performance

Spot gold prices gained 0.2 percent in the last week. The yellow metal

touched a weekly high of $1582.9/oz and closed at $1577.74/oz on Fridaystrading session.

In the Indian markets, prices declined by 1.3 on the back of appreciation in

the Indian rupee and closed at Rs. 29335/10 gms on Friday after touching a

low of Rs. 29111/10 gms in the last week.

Factors that influenced gold prices

Expectation among the market participants that major central banks will

maintain the stimulus measures to spur growth, increased worries over rise in

inflation among the investors.

However, European central bank and Bank of England gave no hint on further

monetary stimulus thus capping an upside movement in the Gold prices.

Further, optimistic global market sentiments and overall favorable economic

data from US showing improving US economy pressured gold safe heaven

appeal.

Strength in the DX .

Outlook

In the coming week, we expect gold prices to trade on a negative note on theback of more than expected decline in US unemployment rate which will lead

to fall in demand for the safe demand. Further, favorable retail sales and rise

in consumer sentiments will decline more demand for the commodity.

Appreciation in the Indian Rupee will add downside pressure on the prices.

Weekly Technical Levels

Spot Gold : Support 1,565/1,545 Resistance 1,600/1615. (CMP: $1582.50)

Sell MCX Gold April between 29650-29700, SL - 30050, Target - 29100.

(CMP:29333)

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

29,000

29,500

30,000

30,500

31,000

31,500

MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance

MCX-Near Month Gold Futures -Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures -$/oz

79.0

79.5

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.5

82.0

82.5

83.0

1,550

1,570

1,590

1,610

1,630

1,650

1,670

1,690

Spot Gold Vs US Dollar Index

Spot Gol d -$ /oz US Dol lar Inde x


7/20


SilverWeekly Price Performance

Spot silver increased 1.4 percent in the last week. The white metal

prices touched a weekly high of $29.24/oz and closed at $28.96/oz in

the last trading session of the week.

On the domestic front, prices ended on a positive note by 2.1 percent

and closed at Rs. 54854/kg on Friday after touching a weekly high of Rs.

55236/kg. Appreciation in the Indian rupee capped the sharp gains in

the prices.

Factors that influenced silver prices

Upbeat global market sentiments.

Rise in the gold prices coupled with mixed sentiments in the base metals

pack. Further, ECB president Draghi comments that region economy will

become stable supported prices.

However, strength in DX coupled with mixed economic data from

euro region capped sharp gains in the prices.

Outlook In the coming week, we expect silver prices to trade lower taking cues

from fall in gold prices along with downside in the base metals complex.

Further, Chinas industrial production and retail sales grew at slow pace

which will also add pressure on the prices.

However, favorable economic data from US will cushion sharp fall in th e

prices. In the domestic markets depreciation in the Rupee might cushion

downside in the prices on MCX platform.


Spot Silver: Support 28.40/27.60 Resistance 29.60/30.50. (CMP:29.05)

Sell MCX Silver May between 56000-56100, SL - 57800, Target -

53400.(CMP:54805 )

28

29

29

30

30

31

31

32

32

33

53,000

54,000

55,000

56,000

57,000

58,000

59,000

60,000

MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance

MCX-Near Month Si lver Futures -Rs/ kg Comex Si lver Futures -$/oz

79.0

79.5

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.5

82.0

82.5

83.0

28.0

28.5

29.0

29.5

30.0

30.5

31.0

31.5

32.0

32.5

Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index

Spot Silver -$/oz US Dollar Inde x


8/20


CopperWeekly Price Performance

Copper prices rose by 0.4 percent in the previous week. The red metal touched a

weekly high of $7790/tonne and closed at $7749/tonne in the last trading

session of the week.

On the domestic front, prices declined by 1.2 percent on the back of

appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs. 425.2/kg on Friday after

touching a low of Rs. 424/kg in the last week.

Copper Inventories

LME copper inventories gained by whopping 11 percent in the last week and

stood at 509,425 tonnes as on 8th March, 2013 as against 458,775 tonnes as on

1st March, 2013.

Copper inventories in the warehouse monitored by the Shanghai fell by 0.3percent and stood at 225,416 tonnes for the week ending on 8th March, 2013.

Factors that influenced copper prices.

Optimistic global market sentiments coupled with favorable economic data from

US and Euro region.

However, rise in LME inventories, strength in the DX along with slow growth in

the Chinas industrial production and retail sales capped sharp gains in prices.

Outlook

Copper prices are expected to trade on a negative on the back of risinginventories coupled with slow industrial growth and retail sales in China.

However, sharp downside in the prices will be cushioned owing to favorable

economic data from US and Euro Zone.

Appreciation in the Indian Rupee will exert downside pressure on the prices on

the MCX.


Sell MCX Copper April between 430-433, SL - 440, Target - 418. (CMP:423.55)

LME Copper: Support 7615/7500 Resistance 7890/8020 (CMP: $7731.25)

415

420

425

430

435

440

445

450

455

7,700

7,800

7,900

8,000

8,100

8,200

8,300

8,400

LME and MCX Copper Price Performance

LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)

7,700

7,800

7,900

8,000

8,100

8,200

8,300

8,400

318000.00

338000.00

358000.00

378000.00

398000.00

418000.00

438000.00

458000.00

LME Copper v/s LME Inventory

Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)


9/20


Crude OilWeekly Price Performance

On a weekly basis, Nymex crude oil prices increased around 1.4 percent.

On the domestic bourses, prices declined by 0.7 percent on account ofappreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.4,976/bbl on Friday after

touching a low of Rs.4,925/bbl in the last week.

US Energy Department Facts and Figures

As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories rose

more than expectations by 3.8 million barrels to 381.40 million barrels for the

week ending on 1st March 2013.

Gasoline stocks declined by 0.6 million barrels to 227.90 million barrels and

whereas distillate stockpiles fell by 3.8 million barrels to 120.40 million barrels

for the last week.Factors that influenced crude oil prices

Rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments.

Additionally, favorable economic data from the US and Euro zone led to

expectations of rise in demand for the fuel which also supported an upside in

the crude oil prices.

However, sharp upside in the prices was capped as a result of strength in the

DX coupled with restart of pipeline in North Sea which was shut for five days

after leak was discovered.

Outlook

We expect crude oil prices to trade on a negative note due to rise in the Saudi

Arabias crude oil production, restart in the North Sea pipeline along with slow

industrial production and retail sales. However, expectations of positive retail

sales and consumer sentiments data from US will cushion sharp fall or even

reversal in the prices.


Nymex Crude Oil: Support: 90.70/89.60 Resistance 92.50/93.90 (CMP:91.77)

MCX Crude Oil March: Support: 4925/4870 Resistance 5010/5100 (CMP:5000)

90.0

91.0

92.0

93.0

94.0

95.0

96.0

97.0

98.0

5,000

5,050

5,100

5,150

5,200

5,250

5,300

Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance

M CX crude oi l (Rs/ bbl) NY MEX C rude Oi l ($ /bbl)

360

362

364

366

368

370

372

374

376

378

380

382

Crude Oil Invento ries (mn barrels)


10/20


DX/ INRWeekly Price Performance

US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 0.5 percent in the last week. The currency

touched a weekly high of 82.95 and closed at 82.73 on Friday.

The Indian Rupee appreciated around 1 percent on weekly basis.Factors that influenced movement in the DX

US Gross Domestic (GDP) which grew at slower pace of 0.1 percent than the forecast

data leading to concerns over the global economic growth.

However, sharp upside was not witnessed on account of rise in risk appetite in the

global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency.

Additionally, favorable economic data from US and Euro Zone also capped sharp gains

in the currency.

Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee

On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee appreciated by 1 percent. The currency appreciated

on the back of selling of dollars from exporters and some custodian banks.

Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with inflow of dollars from

Power Grid's bond issue which raised up to 20 billion rupees ($364.66 million)

through sale of bonds also supported an upside in the currency.

FII Inflows

For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.1,410.90 crores ($254.37

million) as on 8th March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at

Rs.47,909.0 crores ($8,889.0 million) till 8th March 2013.

Outlook

We expect rupee to appreciate in the current week on back of expectations of rise in

the industrial production and manufacturing output data. Additionally, inflation data

is forecasted to fall which will also support an upside in the currency. Further, upbeat

global market sentiments will act as a positive factor for the Indian Rupee. Strength in

the DX will cap sharp gains in the currency.


USD/INR MCX March Support 54.0/53.50 Resistance 54.90/55.50 (CMP: 54.255)

US Dollar Index: Support 82.10/81.50 Resistance 83.20/83.60 (CMP: 82.69)

79.0

79.5

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.5

82.0

82.5

83.0

US Dollar Index

53.0

53.5

54.0

54.5

55.0

55.5

56.0

$/INR - Spot


11/20


EuroWeekly Price Performance

The Euro depreciated by 0.1 percent in the last week. The Currency touched a

weekly low of 1.2955 and closed at 1.3004 against dollar on Friday.

Factors that influenced movement in the Euro

Decline in Europes Sentix investor confidence, decline in Spanish services PMI

coupled with strength in DX. Further, Revised Euro GDP data showed that Euro

zone growth declined by 0.6 percent and negative German factory orders.

However, optimistic global market sentiments, decline in borrowing cost for

Spain and ECB decision to keep its benchmark interest rates unchanged to 0.75

percent cushioned the sharp depreciation in the currency. Additionally, ECB

president Draghi comment that region economy will become stable also

prevented sharp fall in the Euro.

News

German Factory Orders declined by 1.9 percent in the month of February as

compared to 1.1 percent rise in January. European Minimum Bid Rate kept

unchanged at 0.75 percent in the month of March.

European Retail Sales rose by 1.2 percent in January as compared to previous

decline of 0.9 percent a month ago.

European Sentix Investor Confidence was at -10.6-mark in March from earlier

fall of 3.9-level in February.

Outlook

We expect the Euro to trade on negative note due to strength in DX, Further,

its is expected that regions industrial production will decline which will exert

downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency

will be cushioned as a result of upbeat global market sentiments.


EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.2920/1.2840 Resistance 1.3100/1.3210 (CMP:

1.3000)

1.29

1.30

1.31

1.32

1.33

1.34

1.35

1.36

1.37

Euro/$ - Spot

70.0

70.5

71.0

71.5

72.0

72.5

73.0

EURO/INR - Spot


12/20

Chana


Weekly Price Performance

After touching a new contract low in the early part of the last week, Chana April

futures settled higher 1.1% as emergence of demand at lower levels led to short

coverings.

Robust demand witnessed at lower levels

Arrivals of new crop from MP has gained momentum and thus prices have

declined considerable in the past few weeks due to supply pressure.

As Chana prices are near their MSP levels (Rs 3200 per qtl), demand is robust in

the spot markets. This restricted further fall in prices last week.

Government may take steps to augment supplies- Budget 2013-14

In the union budget 2013-14, although no direct move was considered for

Pulses, still The Finance Minister expressed concern about the supply-demandmismatch in pulses. He said that the aggregate demand is a concern. Stating that

food inflation is worrying, he said the government would take all steps to

augment the supply side.

Bumper Chana output estimated for 2012-13 season

According to the final figures from ministry of agriculture dated 22nd February

2012, Chana sowing is 3.6% higher at 95.15 lakh ha compared to previous year.

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices

(MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season.

Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is

estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13.

Outlook

After witnessing short coverings last week, chana prices may continue to trade

with downward bias as supply pressure will increase further with the

commencement of harvesting in Rajasthan, the second largest Chana producing

state after MP.

Weekly Strategy

Sell NCDEX CHANA April between 3420-3460, SL -3570, Target - 3250 / 3225


13/20

Black Pepper

Source: Reuters & Angel Research



Pepper Futures declined for the second consecutive week on account of

improvement in arrivals of the new crop from Karnataka and lower overseasdemand. Prices had earlier gained sharply over the last few weeks on the back of

low stocks and delay in harvesting of the fresh crop due to lack of skilled labor.

The Spot as well as the April Futures settled 5.35% and 2.34% lower w-o-w.

Indian Pepper is being offered at $6,900/tn (C&F NY). Vietnam and Brazil Austa is

quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn and $6,600/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn

Averages daily arrivals stood at 20 tn while offtakes stood at 20 tn last week.

Expectations of higher output in 2012-13

According to IPC, Pepper production is expected around 55,000 tn in 2013 and

carryover stocks of about 15,066 tn.

According to market sources India exported 12,000 tn of pepper in 2012.

Global updates

Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn vis--vis 3.17 lk tn in

2011. Vietnam pepper exports in 2012 stood at 116,962 mt. Pepper production

from Vietnam decreased to 1.05 lk tn in 2012 from 1.1 lk tn in 2011. Harvesting of

the fresh crop from Vietnam will commence in the coming days.

Exports from Brazil during Jan-Nov 2012 are reported at 25900 tn, as against

32650 tn in the same period last year, down by about 20%.Outlook

Pepper Futures may gain in the early part of the week due to short coverings as

prices have declined sharply. Stockists who have liquidated their stocks at higher

prices may stock their inventories at lower levels. Low stocks for delivery due to

lock up of pepper in the NCDEX accredited warehouses may also support prices.

However, prices are expected to decline from higher levels due to arrival pressure

from Karnataka.

Weekly Strategy Sell NCDEX Pepper April between 35100-35200, SL -36020, Tgt- 33900 /33700.

Source: Reuters & Angel Research.


14/20

Turmeric

Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

Commodities Weekly Tracker


Turmeric Futures recovered sharply last week and traded on a bullish note due to

fresh export enquiries. Domestic demand from regions like Bihar, Maharashtra,

Delhi, and Kolkata also pushed up the prices. Lower output expectations for 2012-

13 crop on the back of poor sowing also supported the prices. Sowing is reported

to be 30-35% lower compared to last year.

The farmers are reportedly keeping around 12 lakh bags of turmeric with them.

Stocks in Nizamabad reported around 6.5 lakh bags, which is lower than Erode.

According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown region (Southern

Peninsula) is reported at 10% below normal. The spot as well as the Futures

settled 6.88% and 9.85% higher w-o-w.

Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as

well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th

October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower

as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha).

Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50% lower compared to last

year and is expected around 45-50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is reported

at historical high of 90 lakh bags/ 10.62 lakh tns.

Outlook Turmeric is expected to continue to gain into the second week due to good

demand from the domestic as well as the international markets. Lower

production estimates may also support prices at lower levels. Arrivals of good

quality crop may also support prices at lower levels. However, we may witness

some profit booking at higher levels. Also, huge carryover stocks may also

pressurize prices at higher levels.

Weekly Strategy Buy NCDEX Turmeric April between 6400-6450, SL -5980, Target - 7070 / 7160.




15/20

Jeera

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.

Commodities Weekly Tracker


Jeera traded on a mixed note with some positive bias last week. Arrival pressure

of the new crop pressurized prices. However, fresh export enquiries as well as

demand from the domestic markets at lower levels supported the prices. Sowing

in Gujarat was reported at 3.244 lk ha till Jan 13. Last 3 years average sowing is

3.189 lk ha. Stocks are reported at around 5-6 lk bags.

The Spot as well as the April Futures settled 2.75% and 1.4% higher w-o-w.

Effect of higher production offset by higher exports

Indias 2013 Jeera output is estimated at 38-40 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), at par

with the production in 2012. However, increase in the exports due to supply

concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the prices

and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.Global supply concerns to boost Jeera exports

According to market sources, the exports target of 45,000 tn has already been

achieved. Total exports for 2012-13 season is now estimated at 60,000 tn.

Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions

between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They

have stopped shipments. Turkey may start offering its Jeera in the coming days.

International Scenario

According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tons while

production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% and

around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets.

Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,600/tn (c&f).

Outlook

Jeera is expected to decline from higher levels this week on account of

improvement in arrivals of the new crop. However, fresh overseas enquiries/

demand may support prices. Farmers may not also sell their stocks at low prices.

Weekly Levels Sell NCDEX Jeera Apr between 13400-13500, SL -14070, Target - 12550 / 12420.




16/20

Soybean


Weekly price performance

Soybean futures gained sharply last week and settled 7.7% higher w-o-w on account

of dwindling supplies in the domestic markets coupled with firmness in the

international. At CBOT, soybean futures settled 3% higher on concerns that dry

weather in Argentina may hurt Soy yield.

Soy meal Exports Jump in February SOPA

Exports of Soybean meal during February, 2013 was 5,77,589 tones as compared to

3,70,524 tonnes in February, 2012 showing an increase by 55.88% over the last year.

On a financial year basis, the export during April 2012 to February 2013 is 31,13,651

tonnes as compared to 34,52,791 tonnes in the same period of previous year

showing a decrease of 9.82%.

Oilseeds output down 1.1% , soybean and mustard up 3.2% & 11.52% According to the second advance estimates, 2012-13 oilseed output is pegged at

29.4 mn tn, down by 1.1%, while soybean and mustard seed output is pegged

higher at 12.9 mn tn and 7.36 lakh tn.

USDA Monthly Report forecast marginal increase in output estimates

USDA raised its global soybean production estimate to 269.5 mn tn as improved

production prospects in Brazil offset deteriorating conditions in Argentina. Soybean

production for Brazil is projected at a record 83.5 million tons, up 1 million from last

month. Prospects for Argentina Soy crop have diminished due to an extended period

of dry weather and is projected at 53 mn tn, down 1 mn from last month.

Outlook

Soybean prices may trade with upward bias on dwindling supplies in the domestic

markets coupled with firmness in the international markets. However, higher soy oil

stocks may cap sharp upside in the prices.

Strategy

Buy NCDEX Soybean April between 3480-3520, SL -3370, Target - 3690 / 3715


17/20

Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil


Weekly price performance

Edible oil complex traded on a positive note last week taking cues from the

oilseeds complex, especially soybean , which remained firm in the domestic aswell as global markets. Crude palm oil prices at MCX and KLCE settled 0.4%

and 3.4% higher respectively While, Soy oil prices at NCDEX and CBOT gained

1.8% & 1.3% respectively w-o-w.

Global Scenario

Malaysia's February palm oil stocks fell 5.2 percent to 2,443,741 tonnes from

a revised 2,578,509 tonnes in January (Source: Malaysian Palm Oil Board ).

Stronger palm oil purchases from China may lead to better Malaysian export

numbers in March. In February, exports from Malaysia declined about 9

percent, cargo surveyors' data showed. Global palm oil output is estimated at 55.3 mn tn in 2012-13, up by 3.4 mn tn.

Palm oil exports from Indonesia, the world's top producer, fell 1 percent to

1.872 million tonnes in January compared with the previous month.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-10 rose 2.2 percent to

438,549 tonnes from 429,070 tonnes shipped during Feb. 1-10.

Domestic Scenario

India's edible oil shipments in January hit a record 1.12 million tonnes as

buyers stocked up on expectations the government would use its budget inlate February to announce a hike in import tariffs.

Stocks in the world's top buyer of edible oils will rise by 100,000 tonnes from

January to 1.857 million tonnes, weighing on domestic prices and making it

less lucrative for farmers to plant more oilseeds.

Strategy

Sell NCDEX Ref Soy Oil April between 695-700, SL -715, Target - 672 / 668

Sell MCX CPO March between 463-466, SL -475, Target - 449 / 447


18/20

Sugar



NCDEX Sugar futures settled 0.9% higher w-o-w on expectatations that the

government may soon deregulate sugar industry. Also, reports that some mills in

Maharashtra have stopped crushing due to non availability of cane supported anupside in the prices.

Liffe sugar settled higher by 3.9% last week on expectations that lower prices will

boost Brazilian millers to make more biofuel and less of the raw sugar from cane.

India to consider lifting curbs on sugar sector by next week

India, the world biggest sugar consumer, could consider easing curbs on the

tightly controlled industry by next week.

Decontrolling the sugar sector would, involve abolition of regulated release

mechanism, removal of levy sugar obligation from industry, freer export-importpolicy, removal of sugar from compulsory packing in jute bags only and a

transparent policy linking cane price with sugar price.

India's Oct-Feb sugar output down 60,000 T on year

Sugar output which was up by 3% during Oct-Jan period, is now down by 60000 tn

during Oct 2012- Feb-2013.

Brazil may convert more cane towards Ethanol

Brazil plans to reduce taxes on ethanol to boost production and use of the biofuel.

Thus, the share of cane directed to sugar production in the 2013-14 season may

decline from 49.6 % in the current period.

Outlook

Although supplies continue to remain high in the domestic markets , we expect

sugar prices to recover as demand will now reemerge to meet the summer

season requirement. Further, crushing will now start declining amid lower cane

availability this season.

Strategy

NCDEX Sugar April Trend Sideways Support- 3050/3000, Resistance -3030/3160


19/20

Kapas/Cotton



NCDEX Kapas and MCX Cotton settled higher by 0.3% and 2.2% higher w-o-w on the

back of firm international markets coupled with declining supplies in the domestic

markets. ICE Cotton futures settled 3.8% higher last week as USDA reduced itsglobal cotton stocks estimates for 2012-13 season.

India's cotton imports could top 2 mln bales in 2012-13 RTRS

India's cotton imports could jump by two-thirds to over 2 mn bales in 2012-13. as a

seasonal output slowdown and stock building push domestic prices higher.

India exported cotton in first part of the year to Sept. 30, 2013 as demand was

amply covered by production, but it will turn to imports towards second half

No Change in Cotton export policy

Committee of secretaries of union commerce, agriculture and textile ministry havein their meeting decided to continue with current cotton exports policy.

CAB has raised exports target for current year to 8 mn bales. Since the beginning of

the year, export registrations have increased to 58 lakh bales from 38 lakh bales.

USDA cuts global cotton stock estimate on higher demand

The U.S. government on Friday last week cut its forecast of global cotton inventory

for the marketing year end-July due to expectations of higher demand as China,

home to the world's No. 1 textile industry, continues to bulk up its strategic stockpile

of fiber.

In a monthly crop report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reduced its estimate

for surplus to 81.74 mn bales, down 120,000 bales from last month's forecast.

Outlook

Kapas futures are expected to trade on a positive note on account of declining

supplies in the domestic markets and expected higher exports in the coming

months. However, any decision taken by the industry association to augment

supplies may act as a deterrent to an upside in the Cotton prices.

Strategy

Buy NCDEX KAPAS April'13 between 930-950, SL -900, Target - 1000 / 1010Source: Reuters * 2013 figs are as per Reuters survey


20/20

Thank You!

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.

Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 3083 7700Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000

MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness.

The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any

recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

Documents

Commodities Weekly Tracker, 11th March 2013