Commodities Weekly Tracker, 25th March 2013

7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 25th March 2013

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Commodities Weekly TrackerContents

Returns

Non Agri Commodities Currencies

Agri Commodities

Non-Agri Commodities

Gold

Silver

Copper Crude Oil

Currencies DX, Euro, INR

Agri Commodities

Chana

Black Pepper Turmeric

Jeera

Soybean

Refine Soy Oil & CPO

Sugar

Kapas

Monday | March 25, 2013


3/20

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | March 25, 2013

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1.5Currencies Weekly Performance


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Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance


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GoldWeekly Price Performance

Spot gold prices gained around 1 percent in the last week. The yellow metal

touched a weekly high of $1616.36/oz and closed at $1607.95/oz in lasttrading session of the week.

In the Indian markets, prices gained by 1.1 percent on account of depreciation

in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.29676/10 gms on Friday after touching

an intra-day high of Rs. 29889/10 gms in the last week.

Factors that influenced upside in gold prices

Rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which attracted demand

for safe haven.

Cyprus parliament rejected the proposal for the levying taxes on bankdeposits which led to concerns over the Euro Zone debt crisis along with

unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone supported an upside in the prices.

However, strength in the US Dollar Index (DX) coupled with US Federal

Reserve statement that it will continue with its bond buying program

prevented further gains in the prices.

Outlook

In the coming week, we expect gold prices to trade on a negative note as a

result of European Finance Ministers agreeing a bailout package for Cyprus

thereby affecting the safe haven demand for gold.

However, weakness in the DX will cushion sharp fall in the prices.

Appreciation in Indian Rupee will add downside pressure in prices on MCX.

Weekly Technical Levels

Spot Gold : Support 1,595/1,575 Resistance 1,625/1645. (CMP: $1610.70)

Sell MCX Gold April between 30000-30050, SL 30300, Target 29600 /

29550 (CMP - 29634)

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

29,000

29,500

30,000

30,500

31,000

31,500

MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance

MCX-Near Month Gold Futures -Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures -$/oz

79.0

79.5

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.5

82.0

82.5

83.0

83.5

84.0

1,550

1,570

1,590

1,610

1,630

1,650

1,670

1,690

Spot Gold Vs US Dollar Index

Spot Gold - $/oz US Doll ar Inde x


7/20


SilverWeekly Price Performance

Spot silver declined 0.2 percent in the last week. The white metal prices

touched a low of $28.53 /oz in the last week and closed at $28.67/oz in the

last trade of the week.

On the domestic front, prices fell by 0.1 percent and closed at Rs. 54125/kg

on Friday after touching a weekly low of Rs. 53972/kg. Depreciation in the

Indian rupee prevented sharp fall in prices.

Factors that influenced downside in silver prices

Unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone coupled with Cyprus bailout

issue.

Additionally, strength in the DX, downside in base metals pack along with

increase in US unemployment claims also exerted downside pressure onthe prices.

However, sharp downside was cushioned on the back of upside in gold

prices, favorable home sales and manufacturing data from US, China along

with rise in UKs retail sales. US Federal Reserve statement that it will

continue with its bond buying program Depreciation in the Indian Rupee

also prevented further fall.

Outlook In the coming week, we expect silver prices to trade lower taking cues fall

in the gold prices. Further, downside in the prices will be cushioned on account of weakness

in the DX coupled with upside in the base metals complex.

In the domestic markets, appreciation in the Indian Rupee will add

downside pressure on the prices on the MCX.


Spot Silver: Support 28.30/27.50 Resistance 29.90/30.50. (CMP:28.83)

Sell MCX Silver May between 55250-55350, SL 56450, Target 53500.

(CMP:54163)

28

29

29

30

30

31

31

32

32

33

53,000

54,000

55,000

56,000

57,000

58,000

59,000

60,000

MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance

MCX-Near Month Si lver Futures -Rs/ kg Comex Si lver Futures -$/oz

79.0

79.5

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.5

82.0

82.5

83.0

28.0

28.5

29.0

29.5

30.0

30.5

31.0

31.5

32.0

32.5

Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index

Spot Silver -$/oz US Dollar Index


8/20


CopperWeekly Price Performance

Copper prices fell by 1.2 percent in the previous week. The red metal touched a

weekly low of $7,486.25/tonne and closed at $7,668/tonne in the last tradingg

session of the week.

On the domestic front, prices declined by 1 percent and closed at Rs. 419.20/kg

on Friday after touching a low of Rs 411.90/kg in the last week. Depreciation in

the Indian Rupee prevented further fall in the prices.

Copper Inventories

LME copper inventories gained around 7 percent in the last week and stood at

562,475 tonnes as on 22nd March, 2013 as against 525,825 tonnes as on 15th

March, 2013.

Copper inventories in the warehouse monitored by the Shanghai rose by 3.2percent and stood at 239,273 tonnes for the week ending on 22nd March, 2013.

Factors that influenced downside in the copper prices

Negative economic data from Euro zone coupled with strength in the DX.

Additionally, Cyprus bailout issue, weak global market sentiments along with rise

in LME and Shanghai copper inventories exerted downside pressure on prices.

However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned on account of favorable

manufacturing data from US and China and rise in US existing home sales data.

Outlook Copper prices are expected to trade on a positive on the back of ease in the Euro

Zone debt crisis, expectations of rise in durable goods orders along with weakness

in the DX. However, sharp upside will be capped on account of rising inventories.

Appreciation in the Indian Rupee will cap sharp gains in the prices on the MCX.


LME Copper: Support 7500/7310 Resistance 7775/7900. (CMP: $7685.25)

Buy MCX Copper April between 411-413, SL - 402, Target 430 / 432.

(CMP:418.60)

410

415

420

425

430

435

440

445

450

455

7,400

7,500

7,600

7,700

7,800

7,900

8,000

8,100

8,200

8,300

8,400

LME and MCX Copper Price Performance

LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)

7,400

7,500

7,600

7,700

7,800

7,900

8,000

8,100

8,200

8,300

8,400

318000.00

368000.00

418000.00

468000.00

518000.00

568000.00

LME Copper v/s LME Inventory

Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)


9/20


10/20


DX/ INRWeekly Price Performance

US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 0.3 percent in the last week. The currency touched

a weekly high of 83.315 and closed at 82.529 on Friday.

The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.6 percent on weekly basis.Factors that influenced upside movement in the DX

Rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand

for the low yielding currency. Additionally, European Union giving ultimatum to Cyprus

to seek the bailout of 5.8 billion Euros which the nation was struggling to agree thereby

worsening the Euro Zone debt crisis also supported an upside in the currency.

Unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone also acted as a positive factor for the DX.

However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of favorable economic

data from the US.

Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee

On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.6 percent. The currency depreciated

on the back of DMK withdrawing its support from the UPA government which created

political uncertainty in the nation. Further, weak global market sentiments coupled

with strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on the currency.

However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of selling of dollars

from exporters and custodian banks.

FII Inflows

For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.7,546.80 crores ($1,384.39

million) as on 22nd March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at

Rs.54,044.90 crores ($10,019.0 million) till 22nd March 2013.

Outlook

We expect Indian Rupee to appreciate in the current week on back of upbeat global

market sentiments after ease in Euro Zone debt crisis coupled with weakness in the DX.

However, expectations of negative fiscal deficit for the country can cap sharp gains.


USD/INR MCX March Support 54.15/53.65 Resistance 55.05/55.50 (CMP: 54.50)

US Dollar Index: Support 81.75/81.40 Resistance 82.85/83.20 (CMP: 82.20)

79.0

79.5

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.5

82.0

82.5

83.0

83.5

US Dollar Index

53.0

53.5

54.0

54.5

55.0

55.5

56.0

$/INR - Spot


11/20


EuroWeekly Price Performance

The Euro depreciated by 0.7 percent in the last week. The Euro touched a low of

1.2843 in the last week and closed at 1.2985 against dollar on Friday.

Factors that influenced downside movement in the Euro

ECB said it may cut the emergency fund to Cyprus bank after March 25 if a

Cyprus does not come with a plan to ensure bank solvency.

Further, unfavorable economic data from Euro region coupled with strength in

the DX added downside pressure on the currency.

News

German Ifo Business Climate declined by 0.7 points to 106.7-mark in March as

against a rise of 107.4-level in February. Belgium National Bank of Belgium (NBB)

Business Climate was at -15-mark in March from previous fall of 11-level in thelast month.

The European Union, European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary

Fund (IMF) have agreed a aid package of 10 billion Euros ($13 billion) for the

Cyprus nation. As per the agreement the Cyprus Popular Bank Pcl (CPB) will be

shutdown and spilt. Bank of Cyprus will take over the assets of the closed bank

along with 9 billion Euros in central bank which was provided for emergency

liquidity aid.

European Flash Manufacturing PMI declined by 1.3 points to 46.6-level in

present month with respect to increase of 47.9-mark in last month. EuropeanFlash Services PMI dropped by 0.8 points to 46.5-level in existing month when

compared to 47.3-mark in February.

Outlook

We expect the Euro to trade on positive note due to ease in the regions debt

crisis after the European Finance Minister agreed to provide aid to the Cyprus

nation. Weakness in the DX will also support an upside in the currency.


EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.285/1.275 Resistance 1.315/1.330 (CMP: 1.3035)

1.285

1.295

1.305

1.315

1.325

1.335

1.345

1.355

1.365

Euro/$ - Spot

70.0

70.5

71.0

71.5

72.0

72.5

73.0

EURO/INR - Spot


12/20

Chana


Weekly Price Performance

Chana futures remained firm in the early part of the week on account of strong

demand from the stockiest at lower levels. However, increasing arrival pressure

led prices to decline towards the later part of the last week.

On a weekly basis, Chana spot settled 1.5% lower while April futures declined by

0.6%.

Increasing arrivals exerting downside pressure on prices

Arrivals of new crop from MP has gained momentum and thus prices have

declined considerably in the last week due to supply pressure.

However, prices may not fall below their MSP (Rs 3200 per qtl), as demand will

emerge at such low levels. Also, farmers may not sell their produce below these

levels.Bumper Chana output estimated for 2012-13 season

According to the final figures from ministry of agriculture dated 22nd February

2012, Chana sowing is 3.6% higher at 95.15 lakh ha compared to previous year.

Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is

estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13.

Chana imports declined in the month of February 2013

According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to 0.46

lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during the previousmonth.

Outlook

Arrivals of chana may increase further once harvesting commences from the

second largest producing state, Rajasthan. Increasing arrival pressure may keep

chana prices under downside pressure. However, robust buying by the stockiest

at lower levels may prevent sharp fall in the chana prices.

Weekly Strategy

Sell NCDEX CHANA April between 3380-3420, SL -3460, Target - 3310 / 3290


13/20

Black Pepper

Source: Reuters & Angel Research



Pepper Futures traded on a positive note last week due to good demand for the

Kerala pepper. Low stocks and delay in harvesting of the fresh crop alsosupported prices. However, higher arrivals of the new crop from Karnataka and

lower overseas demand pressurised prices over the preceding two weeks.

The Spot settled 1.15% lower while the Futures settled 0.59% higher w-o-w.

Indian Pepper is being offered at $6,925/tn (C&F NY). Vietnam and Brazil Austa is

quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn and $6,600/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn

Averages daily arrivals stood at 18 tn while offtakes stood at 18 tn last week.

Expectations of higher output in 2012-13

According to IPC, Pepper production is expected around 55,000 tn in 2013 and

carryover stocks of about 15,066 tn.

According to market sources India exported 12,000 tn of pepper in 2012.

Global updates

Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn vis--vis 3.17 lk tn in

2011. Vietnam pepper exports in 2012 stood at 116,962 mt. Pepper production

from Vietnam decreased to 1.05 lk tn in 2012 from 1.1 lk tn in 2011. Harvesting of

the fresh crop from Vietnam will commence in the coming days.

Exports from Brazil during Jan-Nov 2012 are reported at 25900 tn, as against

32650 tn in the same period last year, down by about 20%.Outlook

Pepper Futures is expected to trade on a mixed note this week. Good interstate

demand for the Kerala pepper is likely to support prices. Low stocks coupled with

lower supplies and lack of stocks for delivery due to lock up of pepper in the

NCDEX accredited warehouses may also support prices. However, arrival pressure

of the inferior quality crop from Karnataka may pressurise prices at higher levels.

Weekly Strategy NCDEX Pepper Trend Sideways. S2- 34400, S1- 35200, R1- 36500, R2- 37000.

Source: Reuters & Angel Research.


14/20

Turmeric

Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

Commodities Weekly Tracker


Turmeric Futures traded on a negative note last due to good supplies at higher

levels. However, overseas as well as domestic demand supported prices at lower

levlesfrom states like Bihar, Maharashtra, Delhi, and Kolkata. Lower output

expectations for 2012-13 crop on the back of poor sowing also supported the

prices. NCDEX has imposed 10% special margin on long side to curb the volatility.

Sowing is reported to be 30-35% lower compared to last year.

The farmers are reportedly keeping around 12 lakh bags of turmeric with them.

Stocks in Nizamabad reported around 6.5 lakh bags, which is lower than Erode.

According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown region (Southern

Peninsula) is reported at 10% below normal. The spot as well as the Futures

settled 1.05% and 2.16% lower w-o-w.

Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season

Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as

well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th

October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower

as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha).

Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50% lower compared to last

year and is expected around 45-50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is reported

at historical high of 90 lakh bags/ 10.62 lakh tns.Outlook

Turmeric may trade lower in the initial part of the week extending previous

weeks losses. Higher supplies and an increase in the margin may also pressurise

prices. Huge carryover stocks may also keep prices at check. However, prices may

recover from lower levels due to good demand from the domestic as well as the

overseas markets. Lower production estimates coupled with arrivals of good

quality crop may also support prices at lower levels.

Weekly Strategy Buy NCDEX Turmeric April between 6370-6430, SL -5950, Target - 7070 / 7160.




15/20

Jeera

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.

Commodities Weekly Tracker


Jeera traded on a negative note last week cutting short its three week gain due to

higher arrivals of the new crop. However, export as well as domestic demand

supported prices at lower levels. Sowing in Gujarat was reported at 3.244 lk ha till

Jan 13. Last 3 years average sowing is 3.189 lk ha. Stocks are reported at around

5-6 lk bags.

The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.49% and 2.34% lower w-o-w.

Second consecutive year of higher output

Indias 2013 Jeera output is estimated at 38-40 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), at par

with the production in 2012. However, increase in the exports due to supply

concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the prices

and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.Global supply concerns boost Jeera exports

According to market sources, the exports target of 45,000 tn has already been

achieved. Total exports for 2012-13 season is now estimated at 60,000 tn.

Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions

between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They

have stopped shipments. Turkey may start offering its Jeera in the coming days.

International Scenario

According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tons while

production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% and

around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets.

Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,600/tn (c&f).

Outlook

Jeera may trade on a mixed note this week. Fresh overseas enquiries/ domestic

demand may support prices. Farmers may not also sell their stocks at low prices.

However, improvement in arrivals of the new crop may pressurise prices.

Weekly Levels Sell NCDEX Jeera April between 13370-13430, SL- 13980, Tgt- 12550/12450.




16/20


17/20

Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil


Weekly price performance

Edible oil complex declined sharply taking cues from KLCE palm oil futures

which gained on expectations of fall in inventories. Crude palm oil prices atMCX and KLCE settled 1.6% and 4.75% higher respectively While, Soy oil

prices at NCDEX and CBOT gained 0.01% & 1.04% respectively w-o-w.

Global Scenario

Malaysian palm oil futures could rise to 2,400-2,700 ringgit ($770 to $865)

per tons by the end of May due to weaker production and falling trend in

palm oil inventories. By end of June 2013, Malaysian palm oil stocks will dip

below 2 mn tn and Indonesian stocks would below 4 mn tn. However, after

June prices will come under pressure as low palm oil production cycle ends -

Mistry. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-25 fell 7 percent to

1,055,914 tonnes compared with 1,134,872 tonnes shipped during Feb. 1-25.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-10 rose 2.2 percent to

438,549 tonnes from 429,070 tonnes shipped during Feb. 1-10.

Domestic Scenario

India's imports of palm oil could rise more than 17% in the year to October

2013 to stand at 9 mn tn, compared with 7.67 mn tn of palm oil in 2011/12 as

the edible oil is the cheapest available, despite an import duty.

India's vegetable oil imports fell about 17 percent to 969,175 tonnes last

month, with palm oil imports dropping to 805,362 tonnes.

Total stocks at the end of February rose around 12 percent from January to

about 2 mn tn (estimates include both stocks at ports and pipeline).

Strategy

Buy NCDEX Ref Soya Oil April between 672-677, SL -660, Target - 695 / 699

Buy MCX CPO April between 457-462, SL -450, Target - 473 / 475


18/20

Sugar



NCDEX Sugar April futures declined 3.4% as the government deferred a decision

on freeing up the tightly controlled industry amid mounting supplies.

After witnessing gains in the past few weeks, Liffe sugar settled 2.3 percent lower

last week on profit taking. Expectations of abundant supplies from the 2013-14

harvest in the centre-south of Brazil and other leading producers, such as

Thailand, Mexico and the United States, capped the upside potential in prices.

Indias 2012-13 sugar output seen at 24.6 mln T

India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30,

higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn.

the country's sugar output in 2013-14 marketing year could decline to 22-23

million tonnes, as against 24.5-25 million tonnes this year.Govt will take 'appropriate' decision on sugar decontrol

Pitching for decontrol of the sugar sector, Minister of State for Agriculture Tariq

Anwar said the government will take "appropriate" decision on the issue.

Barring two key regulations with respect to fixing sugarcane price and sharing of

70 per cent revenue by sugar firms with farmers, the Rangarajan Committee

report has suggested giving freedom to mills to sell sugar in the open market and

having a stable export and import policy .

Czarnikow widens forecast for 2012-13 sugar surplus

Czarnikow on Wednesday raised its forecast for a projected global sugar surplus

to 9.1 mn tn, raw value, up from December s projection of 7.8 mn tn in 2012-13.

Outlook

Although supplies continue to remain high in the domestic markets, we dont

expect sugar prices to decline much from the current low levels considering the

firm international markets. Further, crushing will now start declining amid lower

cane availability this season.

Strategy

NCDEX Sugar April Trend Sideways Support- 2850/2895, Resistance -2945/3000


19/20

Kapas/Cotton



After witnessing eight consecutive weekly gains, MCX Cotton futures declined

sharply last week on reports state-run Cotton Corporation Of India (CCI) would

offload stocks in the open market to augment supplies. MCX Cotton and NCDEXKapas declined ICE Cotton futures posted its biggest weekly slide in nine months on

reports of India and China releasing stocks from the state reserve.

India to liquidate stocks from state reserves

lower supplies in the domestic markets and rising cotton prices have caused

concerns for textile industry, which is demanding government to direct CCI and

NAFED to offload the cotton stock to domestic mills.

CCI is expected to offload 4 lakh bales in the domestic market and NAFED will sell

3.63 lakh cotton bales from the first week of April 2013.

India cotton imports seen lower than earlier estimate

India's imports of cotton this year could reach 1.5 mn bales, missing earlier

estimates of more than 2 mn as the govt may to start selling its stockpiles.

China to offload stocks from reserves

China, the worlds largest consumer, is expected to sell about 3 mn tn of cotton this

year from state reserves of around 10 mn tn.

US planting intention data to be released this week

USDA has initially forecasted US Cotton acreage for 2013-14 season, at smallest in20 yrs, however, with recent surge in prices, farmers may decide to plant more

cotton. The planting intention data is schedule to be released on 28th march 2013.

Outlook

In the current week, we expect Cotton prices to trade with downward bias on

expectations supplies may increase in the open market. However, It is crucial to

keep a close watch on US planting intentions which may have an impact on prices. A

decline in cotton acreage may lead to un upside in the prices and vice a versa.

Strategy

Sell NCDEX KAPAS April between 950-960, SL -990, Target - 905 / 895


20/20

Thank You!

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.

Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 3083 7700Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000

MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness.

The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any

recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected]

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Documents

Commodities Weekly Tracker, 25th March 2013