Commodities Weekly Tracker 10th Sept 2013

7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker 10th Sept 2013

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Commodities & Currencies

Weekly Tracker


2/23

Commodities Weekly TrackerContents

Returns

Non Agri Commodities Currencies

Agri Commodities

Non-Agri Commodities

Gold

Silver

Copper Crude Oil

Currencies DX, Euro, INR

Agri Commodities

Chana

Black Pepper Turmeric

Jeera

Soybean

Refine Soy Oil & CPO

Sugar

Kapas

Tuesday | September 10, 2013


3/23

Commodities Weekly TrackerTuesday | September 10, 2013

4.13.8

3.5 3.5

2.9

2.2 2.1

1.51.4

0.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Global Equities Performance (%)


4/23


2.7

1.5

1.0

0.7

0.2

(0.3) (0.3) (0.4)

(1.4)(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance


5/23


1.0

0.8

0.1 0.0

(0.3)

(0.7)(1.0)

(1.7)(2.0)

(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Currencies Weekly Performance


6/23

*Weekly Performance for September contract

*Soybean, Cotton October contract

*Kapas- April 2014 Contract



7/23


GoldWeekly Price Performance

Last week, Gold prices on the MCX declined 3.5 percent and touched a weekly low of

Rs. 31861/kg as Rupee appreciation led to pressure on prices

During the week, Spot Gold prices traded on a flat note and tested a high of$1412.04/oz. However, sharp gains were capped on the back of the ongoing US Syria

military tensions last week

Year-to-date Price Performance

While gold prices in dollar terms are down by about 17 percent over the year, on the

other hand, MCX gold prices are up by 3 percent

Rupee weakness being the main factor that has aided gains in the domestic markets

despite year-to-date losses in dollar terms

SPDR Gold Holdings Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust declined by 0.2 percent to 919.23 tonnes on 6th

September13

On a year to date basis, holdings have declined by around 32 percent

Rush in gold import orders as imports restart after six weeks

Indias gold buyers rushed to restart imports after a gap of six weeks on Wednesday

after clarification of new rules by the customs department

About 250 tonnes of gold which is stuck at the Mumbai airport will get released after

the order RBI had told importers on July 22, that 20 percent of their purchases would have to be

turned around for export, however the rules were not clear and the buyers were

forced to hold off imports and use stocks that had piled up in April and May

On 4th September, 2013 the customs department clarified how the monitoring of

central bank's call for gold imports is to be split - 80 percent for domestic use and 20

percent for exports

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

29,000

30,000

31,000

32,000

33,000

34,000

35,000

MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance

MCX-Near Month Gold Futures -Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures -$/oz

79.0

80.0

81.0

82.0

83.0

84.0

85.0

1,150

1,250

1,350

1,450

1,550

1,650

Spot Gold Vs Dollar Index

Spot Gold -$ /oz US Dol lar Inde x


8/23


GoldChinas gold imports from Hong Kong increase on physical demand

Gold imports jumped in China as importers took advantages of local prices that were 2.1 percent higher than the global markets

Chinese buyers are attracted to gold as prices rose 18 percent from a 34-month low in June13

A WGC report said that Chinas total gold consumption this year may jump by 29 percent to reach 1,000 tons, overtaking India to become the worlds

largest gold consumer

Chinas purchases were 129 tonnes in July, up by nearly 70 percent from the same month last year, according to Hong Kong Census and Statistics

Department

Scrap inflows lead to easing in import premiums that were about to swell

Gold premiums declined in India as scrap supplies surged on hopes of improvement in imports after the government clarified rules

Premiums declined to $25-30 an ounce on the LME from $35-40 earlier

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data The net-long position rose 3.6 percent to 101,396 futures and options in the week ended 6thSeptember13

Outlook

Over the week, gold prices in India are expected to decline on the back of Rupee appreciation along with an overall weak trend in the international

markets

Investors are maintaining a cautious tone ahead of the FOMC monetary policy review that is scheduled next week

Weekly Technical Levels

Spot Gold : Support $1360/$1330 Resistance $1418/$1446(CMP: $1390.8) Sell MCX Gold October between 32,650-32,700, SL-33,250, Target -30,900.(CMP: 31924)


9/23


SilverWeekly Price Performance

Spot Silver prices gained 1.5 percent last week, taking cues from overall strength in

base metals. The white metal touched a weekly high of $24.17

In the Indian markets, MCX silver prices gained 1.8 percent, touching a weekly high

of Rs.57308/kg and closed at Rs.54817/kg on Friday

ETF Performance

Amount of silver held by the worlds largest silver-backed exchange traded fund

declined by 0.64 percent to 10,533.72 tonnes for the week ending on 6th

September 2013.

For the month of September 2013 holdings have remained flat and on a year till

date basis holdings surged around 4.5 percent.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data

Bullish bets in Silver climbed 18 percent in the week ended September 6 to 19,375

contracts, the highest since February.

Outlook While silver prices increased last week despite a flat movement in gold prices in

dollar terms, over the week, it is likely that investors will maintain a cautious

approach towards precious metals as we approach the FOMC monetary policy

review in the coming week

In the Indian markets, Rupee appreciation is expected to additionally add to

downside pressure on prices during the week


Spot Silver: Support $23.04/$22.26 Resistance $24.54/$25.26. (CMP:$23.82)

Sell MCX Silver December between 55,900-56,000, SL-57,401, Target -52,400.

(CMP: 54990)

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

38,500

43,500

48,500

53,500

58,500

MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance

M CX - Ne ar M on th Si lv er Fu tu res - R s/ k g C om ex S il ve r Fu tu res - $/ oz

79.0

80.0

81.0

82.0

83.0

84.0

85.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

30.0

32.0

Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index

Sp ot Si lve r -$ /oz U S Do ll ar I nd ex


10/23


CopperWeekly Price Performance

LME Copper prices gained around 0.7 percent on a weekly basis, with prices touching a

high of $7251/tonne. However, sharp gains in the red metal were capped on the backof ongoing military tensions between the US and Syria

Jump in LME copper inventories by 2 percent last week also acted as a negative factor

The near-month Copper contract on the MCX gained marginally by around 0.2 percent

over the last week after touching high of Rs509.95/kg. However, Rupee appreciation

capped gains in the metal as the currency witnessed sharp reversal

Copper Inventories

On the LME last week, copper inventories gained around 2 percent to 600,275 tonnes

for the week ending on 9th September 2013 from 588,000 tonnes last week, thus acting

as a negative factor for prices Shanghai inventories on the other hand declined around 3 percent from the last week


TheBullishholdings in copper contracts slid 37 percent to 8211 contracts in the week

ended September 6.

Outlook

Over the week, copper prices are expected to trade on a mixed note on the back of two

factors on one hand, positive Chinese economic data will support upside but on the

other hand, risk aversion ahead of the Federal Reserves monetary policy review willact as a negative factor on prices

In the Indian markets, Rupee appreciation will add downside pressure on prices


LME Copper: Support $7065/$6970 Resistance $7197/$7315. (CMP: $7160)

Sell MCX Copper November between 486-488, SL-500, Target -462.(CMP: 475.40)

365

385

405

425

445

465

485

505

525

6,700

6,900

7,100

7,300

7,500

7,700

7,900

8,100

8,300

LME and MCX Copper Price Perform ance

LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)

6,700

6,900

7,100

7,300

7,500

7,700

7,900

8,100

8,300

318,000

368,000

418,000

468,000

518,000

568,000

618,000

668,000

LME Copper v/s LME Inventory

Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)


11/23


Crude OilWeekly Price Performance

Nymex crude oil prices gained 2.7 percent as concerns over Syria heightened and

raised the risk of the crisis spreading to other countries the Middle East, thereby

leading to supply concerns

The MCX near-month crude oil contract declined 0.4 percent over the week due to

appreciation in the Rupee. Year to date, MCX crude oil prices have witnessed record

gains to the tune of 43 percent

Oil Inventories

As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories declined by

1.84 million barrels to 360.0 million barrels for the week ending on 30th August 2013.

Gasoline stocks dropped by 1.83 million barrels to 216.0 million barrels and whereas

distillate stockpiles rose by 549,000 barrels to 129.50 million barrels for the last week.

As per the American Petroleum Institute (API) report, US crude oil inventories declined

by 4.2 million barrels to 362.0 million barrels for the week ending on 30th August 2013.

Gasoline inventories dropped by 387,000 barrels to 218.72 million barrels and whereas

distillate inventories slipped by 109,000 barrels to 129.08 million barrels for the same

week.

Limited military strikes eases Syria tensions

US considered limited military strikes against Syria

The US would now use force in a limited and tailored manner against legitimate

military targets during a 60-day period following enactment, with a possible 30-dayextension at the presidents request

UK had withdrawn support to the war after its parliament voted down the decision

involving foreign intervention

France, another ally of the US, seems to be deeply divided and constrained over the

Syria issue

With Syria now expected to handover the chemical weapons, the impact of this

spreading to other oil producing countries in the Middle East is expected to be lower

86.0

90.0

94.0

98.0

102.0

106.0

110.0

114.0

4,700

5,200

5,700

6,200

6,700

7,200

7,700

Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance

MC X c ru de oi l (Rs/ bbl) NY MEX Cru de Oi l ($ /b bl)

361.3

360.3

363.1369.1

371.7

372.2

376.4

377.53

381.4

384

382.7

385.9

388.6 388.9

387.6

388.6

395.3 395.5

394.9 394.6

397.6

391.3

393.8

394.1

394.1

383.8

373.9

367

364.2

364.6

363.3 360.5

360.21360

365

370

375

380

385

390

395

400

Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)


12/23


Crude Oil

OPEC to boost crude output by 1.7 percent this month- Oil Movement

OPEC crude oil exports will increase by 340,000 barrels a day to about 23.84 million barrels a day in the month ending 21stSeptember13

Middle Eastern shipments will rise by 2 percent to 17.48 million barrels a day to Sept. 21, compared with 17.14 last month

Data from Oil Movements show that Crude on board tankers will decline 0.4 percent to 481.27 million barrels

OPEC's oil production fell to its lowest level since June 2011 on Libya shortfall; gain in Saudi output not enough

Libyas output fell by more than a half a million barrels a day due to protests at many of Libya's key oil exporting ports

The OPECs crude oil production averaged 30.170 million barrels a day in August, down by about 165,000 barrels a day from 30.335 million barrels a

day in July

Saudi Arabias output increased to 9.975 million barrels a day, the Kingdom's highest level since June last year according to data compiled by the

Wall Street Journal, wasn't enough to offset substantial declines in Libya's production Libyas Deputy oil minister Omar Shakmak told the Wall Street Journal last week that output from the country stood at just 320,000 barrels a day


The net-long positions in crude oil declined 3.6 percent to 305,971 contracts in the week ended 6th September.

Outlook

With easing concerns over military action on Syria, supply related worries are expected to be lower. On the back of this, crude oil prices are

expected to witness downside pressure

In the Indian markets, Rupee appreciation is expected to add further pressure on prices during the week


Nymex Crude Oil: Support $104.80/$101.80 Resistance $108.50/$111.50. (CMP: $110.23)

Sell MCX Crude September between 7230-7260, SL-7371, Target -6960. OR Buy MCX Crude September between 6960-6940, SL-6820, Target -7230

(CMP: 7160)


13/23


RupeeWeekly Price Performance

The Rupee appreciated last week by 0.7 percent touching a weekly high of 65.24 on

Friday

On a year to date basis, the currency has depreciated around 19 percent due to

concerns over CAD and lack of optimism regarding the policies announced by the

government and the RBI

However, last week the currency appreciated due to hopes of recovery fuelled by the

new policies announced by new Governor Raghuram Rajan

Finmin, RBI consider including export credit in sector lending

The finance ministry has asked the RBI to consider including export credit in priority

sector lending in a move to make credit easily available to exporters

this is another effort to control the trade deficit that has widened to $191.6 billion in2012-13 as exports fell 1.8% while imports grew 0.44%, burdening the country with the

highest ever current account deficit (CAD)

RBI will be taking a final call as to whether include export credit in the existing 40%

priority sector lending or the central bank would like to create another category

The export credit could be capped at 8% of the aggregate net bank credit within the

overall allocation for priority sector

New RBI Governors efforts may bring in $30 billion

Raghuram Rajan has doubled borrowing limits for banks and made easier norms to tap

non-resident bonds to attract as much as $30 billion in the next three months,providing support to the currency

Banks can now borrow up to 100 percent of their Tier I capital, from 50% forex-

denominated FCNR B of three years and above at a fixed hedge cost of 3.5 percent

The effort for the so-called FCNR (B) deposits has been specially taken to offset the US

dollar sales to oil companies under a swap agreement, could lead to substantial flows

53.0

55.0

57.0

59.0

61.0

63.0

65.0

67.0

69.0

$/INR - Spot

OutlookConcerns over the Indian economy continue to loom after

slow growth of the countrys GDP data along with rising

CAD. Further, services data during the week is expected to

come on a negative note along with stronger DX will exertdownside pressure on the currency.


USD-INR September Contract: Support 63.50/62.00

Resistance 65.60/66.70 (CMP: 64.55)


14/23


Dollar IndexWeekly Price Performance

Over the week, the Dollar Index traded on a flat note as upbeat market sentiments and

mixed economic data over the week capped sharp gains. The DX touched a weekly high of

82.67 and closed at 82.17 on Friday

US economic data comes on the positive note

Overall economic data from the US was mostly positive during the last week except trade

balance and final manufacturing PMI

US Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) Non-Farm Employment Change declined by

22,000 to 176,000 in August as against a rise of 198,000 in July and Unemployment Claims

fell by 9,000 to 323,000 for the week ending on 30th August from 332,000 a month ago

Non-Farm Employment Change increased to 169K in August as compared to 104K in July as

well as Unemployment Rate declined to 7.3 percent in August from 7.4 percent in Julyindicating recovery in the economy

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI gained by 0.3 points to

55.7-level in August, highest level this year, from 55.4-mark in July, indicating expansion

for the third consecutive month. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by

0.7 points to 53-mark in August with respect to 52.3-level in July.

Revised University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment gained by 2.1 points to 82.1-

level in August when compared to 80-mark a month earlier. The gain was mainly due to

favorable income expectations, with consumers expecting largest income gains in nearly

five yearsOutlook

Sentiments in the global markets are upbeat but over the week, a sense of caution could

develop as we approach the FOMC Monetary Policy Review in the coming week. On the

back of this, the Dollar Index is expected to strengthen over the week.


Dollar Index: Support 81.30/80.75 Resistance 82.65/83.50 (CMP: 81.88)

79.0

80.0

81.0

82.0

83.0

84.0

85.0

US Dollar Index


15/23


EuroWeekly Price Performance

The Euro declined around 0.3 percent in the last week, as mixed economic

indicators from the Euro Zone kept a check on rise in prices However, sharp downside movement in the currency was cushioned on account

of upbeat global market sentiments. The Euro touched a weekly low of 1.3119

and closed at 1.3179 on Friday.

Economic data from the Euro Zone comes on a mixed note

Spanish Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.9 points to

50.4-mark in August as against a rise of 48.5-level in July. Italian Services PMI

was at 48.8-level in August from 48.7-mark a month ago. European Final

Services PMI fell by 0.3 points to 50.7-level in last month with respect to 51-

mark in July. European Retail Sales rose by 0.1 percent in July as compared to decline of 0.7

percent a month earlier, indicating growth in consumer spending and a sign of

recovery for the economy

German Trade Balance was at a surplus of 14.5 billion Euros in July as against a

rise of 15.8 billion Euros a month ago. French Gov Budget Balance declined by

80.8 Billion in July as compared to a decline of 59.3 Billion in June. French Trade

Balance declined by 5.1 Billion in July as against a decline of 4.5 Billion in June.

German Industrial Production declined by 1.7 percent in July as compared to a

gain of 2 percent in June, indicating slowdown after a recovery phase

Outlook

Over the week, the Euro is likely to trade with a positive bias as the Euro Zone

witnesses economic recovery, thus supporting gains in the currency


EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.310/1.295 Resistance 1.340/1.365. (CMP: 1.3250)

1.275

1.285

1.295

1.305

1.315

1.325

1.335

1.345

1.355

1.365

Euro/$ - Spot

69.0

74.0

79.0

84.0

89.0

94.0

EURO/INR - Spot


16/23

Chana


Weekly Price Performance

Chana futures declined last week on prospects of a better sowing in the rabi

season due to good rains in the chana growing regions, especially in Madhya

Pradesh. Also, supplies increased considerably at higher levels. However,

festive season demand limited sharp downside in the prices. Spot as well as

futures settled 3.53% and 4.74% lower w-o-w.

Pulses output heading for second year of bumper output

As on 6th September 2013, Pulses sowing is up 5.35 percent at 102.93 lakh ha.

Increase in acreage under kharif pulses this year and above average monsoon

has raised hopes of bumper Pulses output for second straight year in row.

Festive season demand to offset higher supplies

Renewed buying interest from dal millers to meet the festive season demandhave supported chana prices higher despite sufficient supplies. A series of

festivals shall commence in the coming weeks and thus demand side

fundamentals shall remain strong offsetting higher supplies.

Withdrawal of special margin on short side

Special Margin of 5% on Short side imposed earlier has been withdrawn in

Chana wef Friday, August 23, 2013. After the withdrawal, total margin on

Chana now stands at 7.2 percent on both short and long side.

Chana output at record high in 2012-13-

Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain

production last week wherein it pegged Chana significantly higher at record 8.8

mn tn in the current season 2012-13. compared with 7.5 mn tn.

Outlook

Chana may trade with a negative bias early in the week on the back prospects

of a higher sowing in the coming season. However, expected rise in demand by

the dal millers due to upcoming festivals may support prices at lower levels.

Weekly Strategy

Sell NCDEX Chana Oct between 3180 3200, SL 3350, Target 3000.


17/23

Turmeric

Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

Commodities Weekly Tracker


Turmeric Futures declined last week on the back of huge carryover stocks and

good sowing of turmeric. However, fresh overseas as well as domestic demand

ahead of the upcoming festival supported prices in the spot markets.

The spot settled 1.96% higher while the Futures settled 5.5% lower w-o-w.

Postponement of launch of contract

According to a circular released by the regulator, launch of April 2014 expiry

contract in Turmeric has been postponed till further notice.

Sowing of Turmeric for the 2013-14 season

The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 04/09/2013 is reported at 0.51

lakh ha against 0.54 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.64 lakh ha. Normal

sowing for the season is 0.68 lakh hectares.

Better than expected exports

Turmeric exports in 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn as against 79,500 tn in 2011-12.

Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

Turmeric production in 2012-13 was around 50% lower compared to 2011-12 and

is expected around 45-50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is reported at

historical high of 90 lakh bags/ 10.62 lakh tns.

Outlook

Turmeric prices are expected to continue to decline extending last weeks losses

on the back of huge carryover stocks as well as good sowing of turmeric this

season. Good rains are also expected to increase the yield in the coming season.

However, overseas as well as domestic demand may restrict a sharp decline and

support prices at lower levels. The monsoon needs to be watched carefully at this

stage, as this may affect the acreage as well as the yield of the crop.

Weekly Strategy Sell NCDEX Turmeric Oct between 5150 5170, SL 5400, Target 4800/4700.

Source: Reuters & Angel Research.



18/23

Jeera

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.



Jeera futures traded on a mixed note lat week. Prices which gained in the early

part of the week on escalated tensions in Syria, which led to export demand,

declined as the tensions eased. Also, good rains in Gujarat boosted prospects forbetter sowing in the coming season, adding to the downside pressure.

The spot settled 1.2% higher while the Futures settled 1.21% lower w-o-w.

Global supply concerns boost Jeera exports

The ongoing tensions in Syria one of the largest exporters of the spice has led to

global supply concerns, and thus, increased exports demand from India.

Jeera exports in 2012-13 stood at 79,900 tn, as against 45,500 tn last year.

Second consecutive year of higher output

Indias 2013 Jeera output is estimated at 40-45 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), higher

than 40 lakh bags in 2012. However, increase in the exports due to supply

concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the prices

and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.

International Scenario

According to reports, production in Turkey is reported around 8,000-10,000

tonnes while production in Syria is expected to be lower, raising supply concerns

in the international markets.

Currently, 1% Jeera of Indian origin is being offered for Singapore at $2,300/tn(FOB Mumbai) while for Europe at $2,400/tn (CNF) (Source: Agriwatch).

Outlook

Jeera may trade on a mixed note with a negative bias on easing tensions in Syria

coupled with prospects of a better sowing in the upcoming season. Higher

production last year may also keep prices under check. However, overseas as well

as domestic demand ahead of the festive season may support prices.

Weekly Levels Sell NCDEX Jeera Oct between 13750 13780, SL 14000, Target 13450/13300.

Source: Reuters & Angel Research.



19/23

Soybean


Weekly price performance

Soybean futures traded on a mixed note last week. Tight supplies coupled with dry

weather in the US supported prices. However, receding rains coupled with

expectations of new season arrivals to commence soon as well as a recovery in theRupee in the second half of the week kept prices under check. The spot settled

1.95% lower while the Futures settled marginally higher by 0.07% w-o-w.

CBOT Soybean September futures gained 0.91% last week due to weather concerns.

However, forecast of wet and cool weather in the coming days capped sharp gains.

Withdrawal of monsoon

Receding rains in Central India and IMDs expectations that withdrawal of monsoon

to start this week from the north-west part of India may ease the fears of damage to

the standing soy crop. The acreage is higher at record 191.64 lh, up by 12.86%

compared to the same period last year.

Expectations of a cooler weather to ease prices in the coming days

Forecast of cooler weather coupled with rains in the coming days may ease the crop

concerns and provide some respite to the prices. Also, there are expectations of

harvesting of the new season crop to commence in the coming days.

Soybean 2012-13 output revised up Fourth Advance Estimates

Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain

production earlier in July wherein it pegged Soybean output significantly higher at

record 14.6 mn tn in the current season 2012-13 compared with 12.2 mn tn in 2011-12. Total nine Oilseeds production is pegged at 31 MT in 2012-13, slightly higher

than 29.79 MT achieved in the previous year.

Outlook Soybean futures may trade with a negative bias this week on expectations of higher

output coupled with commencement of arrivals of the new crop in the coming days.

Also, weakness in the international markets may pressurize prices. However, tight

supplies coupled with strong meal export demand may support prices.

Strategy

Sell NCDEX Soybean Oct between 3500 3520, SL 3700, Target 3250/3200.



20/23

Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil


Weekly price performance

Edible oil complex opened higher last week due to a weak Rupee coupled

with festive demand. However, prices retreated from higher levels on theback of a recovery in the Rupee coupled with weakness in the soy oil prices in

the international markets. Soy oil as well as MCX CPO settled 1.27% and

2.16% lower respectively last week

Prices on KLCE gained 1.04% on export demand. However, expectations of

increase in the output during the seasonally higher yield period capped gains.

Global Scenario

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products in August increased 7.5% to 1,511,755

tons tonnes from 1,406,935 tonnes shipped in July.

Indonesia has cut export tax on crude palm oil to 9% in September from10.5% in August.

Domestic Scenario

As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India,

imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, declined 6.13% to 889,493

tn in July, as weakness in the Rupee has made imports more expensive.

India's refined palm oil imports declined 27.8 per cent in July to 213,853 tn

from 296, 230 tn in June as weakness in the Rupee has made imports

expensive..

Monthly soy oil imports rose 69% as local supplies are almost before the

soybean crop enters the markets.

Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on Aug 1 stood at 610,000 tn, the trade body

said, higher than 690,000 tn on July 1.

Strategy

Sell NCDEX Refined Soya Oil Oct between 675 680, SL 700, Tgt 650/640.

Sell MCX CPO Sept between 548 553, SL 570, Target 520/510.



21/23

Sugar



Sugar futures have traded on a mixed note over the past few weeks. Ample

supplies, upward revision of output forecast as well as selling pressure from the

millers have pressurize prices. However, festive demand has supported prices atlower levels. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.27% and 0.5% lower w-o-w.

LIFFE as well as ICE Sugar settled 3.12% and 2.75% on account of improved

physical demand coupled with weather concerns in in Brazil.

India's sugar output seen up next year

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 48.53

lakh ha as compared to 50.06 lakh ha last year.

Excess rains in current season have raised hopes of higher output in the coming

season that shall begin in October 2013. Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) hasprojected 2013-14 sugar production at 23.7 million tonne as against the domestic

requirement of 23.5 million tonne.

Higher exports from Brazil

According to the Trade Ministry of Brazil, raw sugar exports in August increased to

2.68 mn tn against 1.85 mn tn in July on the back of strong Dollar and weak Real.

Forfeiture of sugar from processors

According to a USDA report, US Sugar processors have forfeited about 85,000

tonnes sugar worth about US $ 35 million due to default at the end of August onthe back of lower global prices.

Outlook

Sugar may trade on a mixed note with a negative bias on account of ample

supplies coupled with selling pressure from the millers to clear their arrears.

However, expectations that demand will emerge at lower levels to meet the

festive season requirement may support prices at lower levels.

Strategy

NCDEX Sugar Oct , Trend- Sideways. S1 2965, S2 2950, R1 3005,R2 3025.



22/23

Cotton



Cotton prices on MCX which were soaring due to incessant rains, a weak Rupee and

expectations of delay in arrivals, corrected last week on the back of a sharp

recovery in the Rupee in the second half of the week. Cotton Futures on MCXsettled 5.29% higher w-o-w.

ICE Cotton continued to decline for the third week by 0.55% on account of long

liquidation over concerns over demand from China.

Cotton area in Maharashtra declines by 6.3%

Cotton acreage in Maharashtra has declined by 6.3% to 38.68 lk ha as against 41.29

lk ha till Sept 6 as farmers have shifted to other remunerative crops like soybean.

This has lowered overall cotton acreage in the country marginally by 0.3 percent

this year. Cotton crop was sown on 113.12 lk ha as on 6th

September.Indias rain to delay cotton harvest by 15 days

Heavy rains in India's cotton-cultivating areas will delay its harvest by at least 15

days, worsening shortages. Above average rains in Gujarat, Maharashtra and MP

have crimped harvesting.

China to scrap stock piling policy

Prices in the global markets have declined over concerns that the Chinese

government is preparing to scrap a controversial scheme to stockpile cotton from

July 2014 which could slash imports by the world's top buyer of the fibre. However,

stockpiling would continue for the 2013-2014 year and the government will buy

cotton from farmers at 20,400 yuan/tn (Source: Reuters).

Outlook

Weak international markets, appreciation in the Rupee and signals of withdrawal

on monsoons may keep cotton prices under check in the coming days. However,

hopes of higher demand for cotton to meet yarn export commitments coupled

with commencement ofChinas 2013 stockpiling policy may support prices.

Strategy

Sell MCX Cotton Oct between 20900 - 22000, SL -22600, Target 20100.


d kl k


23/23

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Documents

Commodities Weekly Tracker 10th Sept 2013