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Deutsche Bank Markets Research Global Periodical CEEMEA & Latam Daybook Date 1 December 2017 Friday,1 December 2017 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/London Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. THE CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (“THE PRC”) (EXCEPT IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE APPLICABLE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OF PRC), EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAU Pascal Moura Head of Research (+971) 4 4283-864 [email protected] Mairead Smith Equity Focus (+44) 20 754-71054 [email protected] CEEMEA Companies RECOMMENDATION CHANGE SA Retail - 2018 Outlook: time to change to a neutral lane Nampak (Hold, TP ZAR18.50) - FY17 result: R1.4bn of incremental trapped cash in H2-downgrade to Hold SECTOR UPDATE SA Company Results Diary - 4-8 December 2017 (FY17: SNH; 1H18: AFH) LATAM Companies SECTOR UPDATE Chilean Banks - October results show weak start to 4Q17 MACRO Brazil Update - We expect 3Q GDP to grow 0.3% QoQ Focus Europe - 2018 Outlook: The return of macro volatility VALUATION CEEMEA and Latam valuation tables Stock Performance(US$)–Gainers & Losers (CEEMEA) Top 10 Ticker Price %Chg Turk Telekom TTKOM TI 1.4 8.1 Mediclinic MDC LN 7.6 5.5 Vakifbank VAKBN TI 1.5 5.4 Harmony HAR SJ 1.8 5.2 Turkcell TCELL TI 3.9 4.4 Dar Al Arkan ALARKAN AB 2.5 3.9 Pioneer PFG SJ 9.6 3.8 Garanti GARAN TI 2.4 3.7 Emlak REIT EKGYO TI 0.6 3.2 Yapi Kredi Bank YKBNK TI 1.1 3.2 Bottom 10 Ticker Price %Chg Impala Platinum IMP SJ 2.9 -8.3 VTB VTBR LI 1.8 -5.4 Qatar Electricity & QEWS QD 44.5 -4.7 Lenta LNTA LI 5.8 -3.4 Naspers NPN SJ 269.7 -3.3 Octodec Investments OCT SJ 1.2 -3.2 Transneft TRNFP RX 3042.9 -3.1 Industries Qatar IQCD QD 24.4 -3.0 Dino DNP PW 20.7 -2.9 Surgutneftegaz SNGSP RX 0.5 -2.8 Stock Performance(US$)–Gainers & Losers (LATAM) Top 10 Ticker Price %Chg MercadoLibre MELI US 275.1 2.8 Embotelladora AKO/B UN 26.6 1.5 Soriana SORIANAB 2.2 1.0 Arca Continental AC* MM 6.8 0.8 Cencosud CENCOSUD CI 2.4 0.4 Bladex BLX UN 29.4 0.3 Almacenes Exito EXITO CB 5.4 -0.1 Megacable MEGACPO 4.2 -0.4 Banco de Chile BCH US 83.0 -0.4 Femsa FMX UN 90.0 -0.5 Bottom 10 Ticker Price %Chg Smiles Fidelidade SA SMLS3 BS 22.9 -6.2 Arezzo&Co ARZZ3 BS 14.1 -6.1 GOL S.A. GOL US 8.5 -5.7 Banco do Brasil BBAS3 BS 9.2 -5.4 Lojas Americanas LAME4 BZ 4.5 -5.2 Multiplus MPLU3 BZ 10.7 -4.9 Porto Seguro PSSA3 BZ 11.0 -4.8 Wal-Mart de Mexico WALMEX* 2.4 -4.8 LATAM Airlines LTM US 12.7 -4.7 Grupo Mexico GMEXICOB 3.1 -4.6 Source::Bloomberg Finance LP Distributed on: 01/12/2017 04:58:17 GMT 0bed7b6cf11c

CEEMEA & Latam Daybook - jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2017/12/1/1d34536a-2...CEEMEA & Latam Daybook 1 December 2017 Gautam Kalani Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/London Russia

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Page 1: CEEMEA & Latam Daybook - jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2017/12/1/1d34536a-2...CEEMEA & Latam Daybook 1 December 2017 Gautam Kalani Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/London Russia

Deutsche Bank Markets Research

Global

Periodical

CEEMEA & Latam Daybook

Date 1 December 2017

Friday,1 December 2017

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/London

Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. THE CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (“THE PRC”) (EXCEPT IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE APPLICABLE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OF PRC), EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAU

Pascal Moura

Head of Research

(+971) 4 4283-864 [email protected]

Mairead Smith

Equity Focus

(+44) 20 754-71054 [email protected]

CEEMEA Companies RECOMMENDATION CHANGE SA Retail - 2018 Outlook: time to change to a neutral lane Nampak (Hold, TP ZAR18.50) - FY17 result: R1.4bn of incremental trapped cash in H2-downgrade to Hold

SECTOR UPDATE SA Company Results Diary - 4-8 December 2017 (FY17: SNH; 1H18: AFH)

LATAM Companies SECTOR UPDATE Chilean Banks - October results show weak start to 4Q17

MACRO Brazil Update - We expect 3Q GDP to grow 0.3% QoQ Focus Europe - 2018 Outlook: The return of macro volatility

VALUATION CEEMEA and Latam valuation tables

Stock Performance(US$)–Gainers & Losers (CEEMEA) Top 10 Ticker Price %Chg

Turk Telekom TTKOM TI 1.4 8.1 Mediclinic

MDC LN 7.6 5.5

Vakifbank VAKBN TI 1.5 5.4 Harmony HAR SJ 1.8 5.2 Turkcell TCELL TI 3.9 4.4 Dar Al Arkan ALARKAN AB 2.5 3.9 Pioneer PFG SJ 9.6 3.8 Garanti GARAN TI 2.4 3.7 Emlak REIT EKGYO TI 0.6 3.2 Yapi Kredi Bank YKBNK TI 1.1 3.2 Bottom 10 Ticker Price %Chg Impala Platinum IMP SJ 2.9 -8.3 VTB VTBR LI 1.8 -5.4 Qatar Electricity &

QEWS QD 44.5 -4.7

Lenta LNTA LI 5.8 -3.4 Naspers NPN SJ 269.7 -3.3 Octodec Investments

OCT SJ 1.2 -3.2

Transneft TRNFP RX 3042.9 -3.1 Industries Qatar IQCD QD 24.4 -3.0 Dino DNP PW 20.7 -2.9 Surgutneftegaz SNGSP RX 0.5 -2.8

Stock Performance(US$)–Gainers & Losers (LATAM) Top 10 Ticker Price %Chg

MercadoLibre MELI US 275.1 2.8 Embotelladora

AKO/B UN 26.6 1.5

Soriana SORIANAB

2.2 1.0 Arca Continental AC* MM 6.8 0.8 Cencosud CENCOSUD CI 2.4 0.4 Bladex BLX UN 29.4 0.3 Almacenes Exito EXITO CB 5.4 -0.1 Megacable MEGACPO

4.2 -0.4

Banco de Chile BCH US 83.0 -0.4 Femsa FMX UN 90.0 -0.5 Bottom 10 Ticker Price %Chg Smiles Fidelidade SA SMLS3 BS 22.9 -6.2 Arezzo&Co ARZZ3 BS 14.1 -6.1 GOL S.A. GOL US 8.5 -5.7 Banco do Brasil BBAS3 BS 9.2 -5.4 Lojas Americanas LAME4 BZ 4.5 -5.2 Multiplus MPLU3 BZ 10.7 -4.9 Porto Seguro PSSA3 BZ 11.0 -4.8 Wal-Mart de Mexico WALMEX*

2.4 -4.8

LATAM Airlines

LTM US 12.7 -4.7 Grupo Mexico GMEXICOB

3.1 -4.6

Source::Bloomberg Finance LP

Distributed on: 01/12/2017 04:58:17 GMT

0bed7b6cf11c

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Russia / CIS LatamIvan Kachkovski Financials +44 207 5411735 Ryan Todd Oil & Gas +1 212 250 8342Pavel Kushnir Oil & Gas +971 4 361 1732 Xavier Marchand Building materials +44 207 545 1400Masha Kahn TMT +1 212 250 9619 Chris Terry Metals & Mining +1 212 250 5434Marc Hammoud Healthcare +971 4 4283910 Tito Labarta Financials/Banks +1 212 250 5944Grant Sporre Commodities +44 207 545 8170 Joana Barros-Magalhaes Financials/Banks +1 212 250 1002Aleksandar Stojanovski Transport +971 4 361 1786 Michael Linenberg Airline +1 212 250 9254Lloyd Walmsley Internet +1 212 250-7063

Marcel Moraes Retail +1 904 271 2470Elina Ribakova Economist +44 207 547 1340 Masha Kahn TMT +1 212 250 9619

Catherine O' Brien Loyalty Programs +1 212 250 8949South Africa Jose Yordan Food&Beverage/Retailing +1 212 250 5528Pavel Kushnir Oil & Gas +971 4 361 1732 Myles Walton Aerospace Defense +1 212 250 5528Caron Bramwell Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7069Ryan Eichstadt Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7249Sean Holmes Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7292 Drausio Giacomelli Chief Economist +1 212 250 7355Letlotlo Lenake Healthcare +27 11 775 7299 Sebastian Brown Senior Economist Mexico & Chile +1 212 250 8191John Kim TMT +27 11 775 7013 Cesar Arias Senior Economist Andean countries +1 212 250-0664Patrick Mann Metals & Mining +27 11 775 7268 Jose Carlos de Faria Senior Economist Brazil +55 11 2113 5185Mathias Pfeifenberger Paper +43(1)53181-153 Hongtao Jiang Head of EM Sovereign Credit +1 212 250-2524Stefan Swanepoel Banks/Financials +27 11 775 7369 Jed Evans Head of EM Analytics +1 212 250-8605Larissa van-Deventer Insurance/Financials +27 11 775 7049 Guilherme Marone EM Derivative and Latam Strategist +1 212 250-8640Munira Kharva Industrial +27 11 775 7433 Eduardo Vieira Head of EM Corporates +1 212 250-7568

Sebastian Brown Latam FX Strategist +1 212 250 8191Danelee Masia Economist +27 11 775 7267

GreeceJames Brand Utility +44 207 5474705

Turkey Robert Grindle Telecommunication +44 207 54548490Kazim Andac Banks, Strategy +90 212 3190315 Ivan Kachkovski Banks +44 207 5411735Athmane Benzerroug Construction, RE +90 212 3190324 Tomasz Krukowski O&G +48 22 579 8732Marc Hammoud Telco +971 4 4283910 Priyal Mulji Construction +44 207 5472094

Kubilay Ozturk Economist +44 207 5458774 George Saravelos FX Strategist +44 207 5479118

CE3 Middle EastJames Brand Utility +44 207 5474705 Ryan Ayache Banks +971 4 428 3261Kazim Andac Banks, Strategy +90 212 3190315 Athmane Benzerroug Construction, Infrastructure, Utilities +971 4 428 3938Ivan Kachkovski Financials +44 207 5411735 Marc Hammoud Telco, Healthcare +971 4 4283910Tomasz Krukowski Consumer, O&G, Industrials +48 22 579 8732 Aleksandar Stojanovski Chemicals/Consumer/Transport/Strategist +971 4 361 1786Carlos Galindo Economist +44 207 547 6269 Elina Ribakova Economist +44 207 547 1340Gautam Kalani Economist +44 207 545 7066 Alizerra Kharazi MENA +44 207 5450083

Emerging EMEA/Latam ResearchHead of Company Research Pascal Moura +971 44283864

Source: Deutsche Bank

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Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 3

ASIAN MARKET TOP STORIES Chinese autos – Looking for another Geely in 2018 (Vincent Ha) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/759-A221/209942066/19c06643-5979-4381-a1ce-28bc0db3cb7b_604.pdf BYD – Losing its charge; downgrading H shares to Hold (Vincent Ha). http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/756-740A/207835668/5fa115ac-a3b9-46cc-8628-75527cc6123b_604.pdf

RECOMMENDATION CHANGES Japan Telecoms – Gate to spectrum heaven closes - downgrading sector (Peter Milliken) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/537-5754/210166970/0900b8c08de6e86f.pdf

ESTIMATES AND TARGET PRICE CHANGES Aristocrat Leisure (ALL.AX, Buy) – FY17 result slightly above market; Big Fish acquisition US$990m (Mark Wilson) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/223-B76B/206807917/0900b8c08de5c752.pdf Gentrack (GTK.NZ, Buy) – New markets, new revenue model, new and improved outlook (Joshua Dale) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/213-CB7E/207235222/0900b8c08de2ab81.pdf Global Memory – Net capacity adds drive supply, but not gross adds (Seung Hoon Han) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/769-381B/203636928/0900b8c08de2f089.pdf

MACRO/STRATEGY DBDaily – US inflation picking up, euro area inflation disappoints, China's PMIs firm … (Ken Crompton) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/9256-4B16/211499255/DB_DbDailyAPAC_2017-11-30_fdb65854-d544-11e7-94ad-98a0d38f7350_604.pdf Dollar Bloc Weekly – 30 November 2017. (Adam Boyton) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/3099-DFD2/205054865/DB_DollarBlocWkly_2017-11-30_90b9571c-d4cf-11e7-94ad-98a0d38f7350_604.pdf Asia Credit Monthly – Chart book 2017 + Picks & Pans (Harsh Agarwal) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/6833-7E67/204963598/DB_AsiaCreditWkly_2017-11-30_0900b8c08dbc1c06.pdf China macro – risks to watch in the next 6 months, Parti IV - presentation slides (Zhiwei Zhang) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/6670-5D43/206743826/dbbfb576-d5ab-11e7-94ad-98a0d38f7350_604.pdf Data Flash – Japan: DB Nowcast Index (Kentaro Koyama) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/670-506B/205765803/2eb8f678-d56d-11e7-94ad-98a0d38f7350_604.pdf Data Flash – Japan: October industrial production (Mikihiro Matsuoka) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/732-124F/205026978/DB_DataFlash_2017-11-30_0900b8c08de42652.pdf FX Daily – The EUR still has the hedging/under allocation 'tinder' (Alan Ruskin) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/3694-1432/204350637/DB_FXDaily_2017-11-30_37d83e89-e18e-4f60-9754-123c1f1717a0_604.pdf Data Flash (Australia) – Q3 private sector CAPEX, October building approvals (Phil Odonaghoe) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/906-1D55/204703489/48a38ff3-ae87-4b9a-821a-b8cea7fa5cad_604.pdf Alert – India: Growth revives modestly in July-Sep; RBI to keep rates steady (Kaushik Das) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/13308-B4F9/208309007/36b575bf-f06c-46ba-a671-5bb6b6f47df0_604.pdf Fed Notes – What Goodfriend could mean for the Fed (Matthew Luzzetti) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/8182-8AF0/208159179/DB_FedNotes_2017-11-30_6021ad2e-c36b-47e4-8245-02797251396b_604.pdf Focus Europe – 2018 Outlook: The return of macro volatility (Mark Wall) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/9698-C716/208774542/DB_FocusEurope_2017-11-30_d11716a5-f216-450f-9357-47e2cb14ab81_604.pdf

HONG KONG / CHINA Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK, Buy) – Progress on key pipeline drugs (Jack Hu) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/2483-E4F4/206186878/f37b5df3-9bd1-4410-86e2-3cbb1c621ff4_604.pdf Hong Kong Banks – Oct'17 stats: Deposit growth still lags behind, cost of funds on the rise… (Franco Lam) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/650-9F11/208573328/0900b8c08dcd4acf.pdf

JAPAN Bank sector – Are negative interest rates expansionary? Implications for Japan (Yoshinobu Yamada) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/522-F304/205700521/0900b8c08de5b9ad.pdf

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Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG/London

JAPAN Bank sector – Reversal rate: Preparing the ground for fine-tuning monetary policy (Yoshinobu Yamada) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/523-D712/205368296/0900b8c08de69965.pdf Japan Autos – October production: Regional diversity at Toyota helping (Kurt Sanger) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/751-CFA0/206940402/0900b8c08de6f3e1.pdf Rinnai (5947.T, Hold) – Adjusting earnings model to factor in consumption tax hike (Yoji Otani) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/232-6D8F/205891366/0900b8c08de5a500.pdf

AUSTRALIA Aristocrat Leisure (ALL.AX, Buy) – FY17 result first impressions (Mark Wilson) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/223-250D/205172090/0900b8c08de5dc9b.pdf Australian Banking Sector – Royal Commission - lesser of two negatives? (Anthony Hoo) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/643-07FA/206238995/0900b8c08de66cf2.pdf Australian Banks – Royal commission unlikely to materially impact banks’ credit profiles (Gus Medeiros) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/791-5D72/206159834/959ee06b-4aaf-45df-93db-20a083d52044_604.pdf AWE Ltd (AWE.AX, Hold) – AWE receives indicative takeover proposal by CERCG at $0.71/sh (John Hirjee) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/948-46CD/204578549/0900b8c08de668f8.pdf Monthly Banking Volumes – Housing credit growth remained stable; business credit growth moderated (Anthony Hoo) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/639-755A/207063531/59323961-d8fb-4d1c-914f-0a63d7b18a79_604.pdf Turners Automotive (TRA.NZ, Buy) – Growth roadmap on track (Mohandeep Singh) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/220-EE5B/204781108/0900b8c08de53a97.pdf

KOREA/TAIWAN Innocean Worldwide (214320.KS, Buy) – An uncrowded way to play the US corporate tax rate cut theme (Dan Kong) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/675-A4B1/203933870/0900b8c08de59924.pdf Korea Non-life Insuranc – A strong October (Jeehoon Park) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/790-5149/208149768/0900b8c08de688e9.pdf Korea Wireless – Rallying on hope over easing net neutrality? Take caution (Dan Kong) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/877-BEA5/205700687/0900b8c08de68287.pdf

INDIAN India Pharmaceuticals – US monthly sales tracker (Kartik Mehta) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/548-ADAC/208492674/edb37d00-d356-11e7-94ad-98a0d38f7350_604.pdf India Utilities & Renewables – India's massive RE push - what is achievable? (Abhishek Puri) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/546-ACD6/204327924/742eba96-8848-49cd-85a2-4e091ba8c226_604.pdf Larsen and Toubro Ltd. (LART.BO, Buy) – Hyderabad Metro fare hike @16% CAGR v/s 5% assumption (Abhishek Puri) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/501-FB36/204952790/6bc91776-8773-43b5-b424-416801f292f2_604.pdf

ASEAN DiGi (DSOM.KL, Sell) – Digi guides for opex decline on cost management efforts (Srinivas Rao) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/919-F538/206211888/0900b8c08de548a0.pdf Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB.KL, Buy) – Equalization of PSC charges crystallizes our thesis. Maintain Buy (Joshua Lee) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/878-0594/206938506/8f8f2568-1aad-4e71-9c94-9a423f17d9a3_604.pdf Malayan Banking (MBBM.KL, Hold) – 9M17 in line: O&G exposure is still not out of the woods (Joshua Lee) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/521-ED3E/206795676/e9ba0bec-c820-11e7-b4ad-96e0c7d2c070_604.pdf DB Indo Towers – 3Q17 Summary: TBIG and TLKM dominate (Raymond Kosasih) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/673-0705/207368399/2336f336-1878-4938-969a-2474425ce6d7_604.pdf Indo Struktur Weekly Wrap – More clarity on ADHI LRT (Joko Sogie) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/585-BA40/208089391/0900b8c08de6d757.pdf Indonesia Consumer Staples – CCL provides challenges for the emerging local beverage players (Raja Abdalla) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/627-EEE8/207568487/0900b8c08de348e1.pdf Indonesia Consumer Staples – Weekly wrap - Nielsen foresaw timid FMCG sales growth in 10M17 (Raja Abdalla) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/630-9789/207384671/0900b8c08de6e216.pdf

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ASEAN Wijaya Karya (WIKA.JK, Hold) – 3Q17 results - behind street expectation (Joko Sogie) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/579-AEE7/206164888/0900b8c08de6d3e0.pdf TMB Bank (TMB.BK, Buy) – Key takeaways from analyst meeting (Peach Patharavanakul) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/725-73A7/206660698/45c92553-a9f8-4361-a173-7bd4e1f9e9bb_604.pdf

APAC Equities - APAC Research In Focus UPCOMING DB CONFERENCES dbAccess Taiwan Technology Supply Chain Corporate Day - 29 Nov@Taipei, Taiwan dbAccess China Conference - 8-12@Beijing, China

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EPS changes

NAME COUNTRY DB EPS FY1 DB EPS FY2 DB EPS FY3 RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE

From To Change IBES

DB vs IBES

(%) From To Change IBES

DB vs IBES

(%) From To Change IBES

DB vs IBES

(%) From To From To Change

CEEMEA

Pick'n Pay Stores South Africa 2.8 2.9 +4.5 3.3 -13.3 3.5 3.7 +5.5 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.1 -0.6 Hold Hold 62.0 62.0

The Foschini Group Ltd South Africa 10.6 11.0 +3.6 12.6 -12.7 11.6 12.3 +5.5 15.8 -22.3 13.0 13.3 +2.6 Hold Buy 142.0 178.0 +25.4

Woolworths Holdings Ltd South Africa 4.0 4.0 -0.6 6.9 -41.9 4.3 4.2 -3.1 7.3 -42.4 4.9 4.8 -2.4 Hold Hold 61.0 59.0 -3.3

Spar Group Limited South Africa 10.3 10.3 -0.7 12.3 -16.2 11.1 11.0 -0.6 13.5 -18.4 12.0 12.0 -0.6 Hold Hold 172.0 200.0 +16.3

Truworths South Africa 6.9 6.6 -4.7 8.0 -17.9 7.8 7.4 -4.6 9.0 -17.0 8.5 8.0 -5.4 Buy Buy 92.0 93.0 +1.1

Nampak South Africa 2.2 1.9 -16.4 3.6 -49.0 2.4 2.1 -12.9 3.9 -47.2 2.4 Buy Hold 22.5 18.5 -17.8

Clicks Group Ltd South Africa Hold Hold 144.0 154.0 +6.9

Massmart South Africa Hold Buy 119.0 125.0 +5.0

Mr Price South Africa Buy Buy 225.0 242.0 +7.6

Shoprite South Africa Hold Hold 204.0 237.0 +16.2

STAR South Africa 1.0 1.1 +6.3 1.2 1.3 +10.4 Buy Buy 24.0 29.0 +20.8

LATAM

Gentera Mexico 2.4 1.9 -19.6 2.4 -20.3 2.7 1.5 -44.8 3.1 2.0 -37.9 Hold Hold 35.0 20.0 -42.9

ASIA

Geely Auto China 0.9 1.0 +11.5 0.4 154.9 1.1 1.3 +18.0 0.4 274.0 1.3 1.5 +17.5 Hold Hold 18.3 25.9 +41.5

BYD China 1.5 1.5 -0.9 1.2 31.3 2.3 2.0 -11.7 2.7 2.4 -10.8 Buy Hold 80.7 75.9 -5.9

BYD-A China 1.5 1.5 -0.9 2.3 2.0 -11.7 2.7 2.4 -10.8 Hold Hold 68.7 64.3 -6.4

Brilliance China China 1.0 1.0 -4.1 1.7 -40.9 1.4 1.4 -0.3 2.0 -28.9 1.8 1.8 +0.0 Buy Buy 24.5 25.1 +2.7

BAIC Motor China 0.6 0.6 -4.2 1.0 1.0 -2.2 1.3 1.2 -2.4 Buy Buy 10.4 11.5 +10.6

Great Wall Motor China 0.6 0.6 -6.1 5.1 -88.3 0.9 0.9 -5.1 4.6 -80.8 1.0 1.0 -5.0 Sell Sell 7.2 6.9 -4.9

Great Wall Motor-A China 0.6 0.6 -6.1 0.9 0.9 -5.1 1.0 1.0 -5.0 Sell Sell 6.6 6.3 -4.6

Tata Power India Buy Buy 94.0 98.0 +4.3

Titan Company India Buy Buy 900.0 900.0

Source: Bloomberg Finance

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1 December 2017

CEEMEA & Latam Daybook

Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 7

Solar Portfolio

30-Nov-17

Companies RIC Buy/Sell Promoted Entry Price Current Price Performance

CE3

X5 RETAIL GROUP PJPq.L Buy 19/10/2017 40.26 37.71 -6.33%

MENA

SAUDI TELECOM COMPANY 7010.SE Buy 01/10/2017 70.50 68.50 -2.84%

TELECOM EGYPT ETEL.CA Buy 01/10/2017 12.95 13.58 4.86%

NMC HEALTH NMC.L Buy 01/10/2017 2,751.00 2,873.00 4.43%

HERFY 6002.SE Buy 23/10/2017 46.74 46.25 -1.04%

GULF INT'L SERVICES GISS.QA Buy 01/10/2017 19.99 15.80 -20.96%

Russia

ROSNEFT ROSN.MM Buy 15/11/2017 303.74 298.95 -1.58%

GAZPROM GAZP.MM Sell 24/11/2017 133.71 133.38 0.25%

SASOL SOLJ.J Sell 27/10/2017 40,874.81 42,526.00 -4.04%

TRANSNEFT TRNF_p.MM Buy 21/11/2017 180,959.09 182,800.00 1.02%

South Africa

BARCLAYS AFRICA GROUP BGAJ.J Buy 01/10/2017 13,900.00 15,450.00 11.15%

HYPROP HYPJ.J Buy 01/10/2017 10,572.00 10,507.00 -0.61%

Turkey

YAPI KREDI BANK YKBNK.IS Buy 01/10/2017 4.32 4.16 -3.70%

VAKIFBANK VAKBN.IS Sell 01/10/2017 6.27 5.84 6.86%

AKBANK AKBNK.IS Buy 01/10/2017 9.40 8.97 -4.57%

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

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Sub-Saharan Africa

South Africa

General Retailers

Industry

SA Retail Date

30 November 2017

Recommendation Change

2018 Outlook: time to change to a neutral lane Not out of the woods, but 2018 could be a bit better (u/g sector to neutral)

Sean Holmes

Research Analyst

(+27) 011 775-7292

[email protected]

Key Changes

Company Target Price Rating

CLSJ.J 144.00 to 154.00(ZAR)

-

MRPJ.J 225.00 to 242.00(ZAR)

-

MSMJ.J 119.00 to 125.00(ZAR)

Hold to Buy

SHPJ.J 204.00 to 237.00(ZAR)

-

SPPJ.J 172.00 to 200.00(ZAR)

-

SRRJ.J 24.00 to 29.00(ZAR)

-

TFGJ.J 142.00 to 178.00(ZAR)

Hold to Buy

TRUJ.J 92.00 to 93.00(ZAR)

-

WHLJ.J 61.00 to 59.00(ZAR)

-

Source: Deutsche Bank

Top picks

Mr Price (MRPJ.J),ZAR212.96 Buy

STAR (SRRJ.J),ZAR25.40 Buy

Truworths (TRUJ.J),ZAR79.95 Buy

Source: Deutsche Bank

Companies Featured

Clicks Group Ltd (CLSJ.J),ZAR173.65 Hold

Mr Price (MRPJ.J),ZAR212.96 Buy

Massmart (MSMJ.J),ZAR111.58 Buy

Pick'n Pay Stores (PIKJ.J),ZAR62.08 Hold

Shoprite (SHPJ.J),ZAR227.00 Hold

Spar Group Limited (SPPJ.J),ZAR192.19 Hold

STAR (SRRJ.J),ZAR25.40 Buy

The Foschini Group Ltd (TFGJ.J),ZAR157.81

Buy

Truworths (TRUJ.J),ZAR79.95 Buy

Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHLJ.J),ZAR58.27

Hold

Source: Deutsche Bank

In this report we provide our outlook for the SA retailers and identify 10 share price drivers for 2018. The drivers include a detailed trend analysis, to help investors form their own view. We conclude that most of the retailers’ earnings have bottomed and that momentum could turn positive in 2018 (but, still foresee a subdued consumer environment over the next 5 years). Considering the potential turn in the retailers' earnings momentum, and unpredictable political/macro situation facing SA, we recommend that investors move to a neutral position (from underweight) on the sector. We upgrade MSM and TFG to a BUY (based on valuation and FY18/19E growth outlook).

Retailers to BUY for 2018: Mr Price, STAR, Truworths, Foschini, Massmart We see the following 3 themes driving outperformance in the sector: Downtrading benefitting value retailers (Mr Price, STAR). We think that a

combination of higher taxes and low real wage growth could constrainconsumers’ spending power – forcing further downtrading.

Pick-up in unsecured credit (Truworths). We anticipate a pick-up in creditdemand from cash-strapped consumers, driving stronger credit sales atTruworths and Foschini Group. In-store credit sales could contribute c50%to Truworths’ FY18E sales and c35% to Foschini Group’s FY18E sales.

Cyclical recoveries and laggards (Massmart and TFG). Should we see astabilization/improvement in some of the key macro trends in 2018, wethink that the retailers’ valuation multiples could revert to mid-cycle andeven above mid-cycle levels. We think that laggards and cyclical gearedretailers could attract investors’ interest, driving an above average re-ratingin these stocks.

Retailers to treat with caution in 2018: Clicks (Hold) and Woolies (Hold) Woolies: Notwithstanding that Woolies’ valuation (15x 12m fwd P/E and

9x 12m fwd EV/EBITDA) now looks more reasonable against the peergroup, we remain cautious that there could be further downside risk to theGroup’s earnings. Our DHEPS estimates for FY18/19E are c12% belowconsensus (Bloomberg Finance LP).

Clicks: The retailer now trades on a 12m fwd P/E of 29x and 17x 12m fwdEV/EBITDA. In our view the valuation multiples are not sustainable atcurrent levels, given the company’s growth prospects.

Valuation and risks See fig 69 for detailed summary of key earnings and valuation changes. Our Nov-18E target prices are based on 13% CoE and FY19/20 DHEPS. Downside risks: higher interest rates, slower credit growth, weaker job growth. Upside risks: stronger ZAR, favourable competitive environment.

1 December 2017 CEEMEA & Latam Daybook

Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 8

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30 November 2017

General Industrial

Nampak

Rating

Hold

Valuation & Risks

General IndustrialPrice at 29 Nov 2017 (ZAR) 17.71

Price Target (ZAR) 18.50

52-week range (ZAR) 21.85 - 15.81

RecommendationChange

Sub-Saharan AfricaSouth Africa

Company

Nampak

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker

NPKJ.J NPK SJ JNB NPKJ

Date30 November 2017

FY17 result: R1.4bn of incrementaltrapped cash in H2-downgrade to HoldBalance sheet risk profile has increased materially - downgrade to HoldThe run-rate of cash build has moved from R300m in H1 to R1.4bn in H2.Whilst our earliest expectation for Angolan cash extraction has always been1H18, we were caught off guard by the aggressive acceleration in Angolancash-build (from a run-rate of R300m in H1 to R800m in H2) and additionaltrapped cash in Zimbabwe (R650m) of which we were previously unaware. Thismaterially alters the risk profile of Nampak's balance sheet, in our view. ExcludingR800m in Nigeria (which we do believe is fully accessible), there is now R2.85bnof inaccessible funds as it stands today. Net debt:EBITDA ex trapped cash iscalculated at 2.9x. Whilst we still subscribe to the Rest of Africa metal can growthnarrative, we would need to see better cash-flow and balance sheet managementin order to turn constructive on the outlook from here.

The operational performance disappointed, particularly in GlassNampak reported demand slack in all divisions outside of Metal cans. The weakdemand was compounded by poor execution in Glass and an onerous contractR82m in UK op's. Glass swung from a R105m profit in FY16 to R16m loss inFY17 due to electrical issues. This was overall a disappointing outcome followingon from what was a solid start in the first half of the year. The guidance is forcontinued muted demand across operations and a break-even position in the UK(vs R60m loss in FY17).

We think Angola is likely to introduce a "NAFEX-like" platform in 2018Angola requires an oil price of $85/barrel to balance its budget (2017 State Budgetuses $45/barrel). The country's fiscal deficit is close to 6%. The rhetoric outof Angola suggests that a multiple currency exchange rate programme like inNigeria will launch in 2018 to help revive the economy. NPK's direct exposureto a devaluing of the Kwanza is currently R234m. There is further exposure withrespect to any new cash build and short-term Kwanza bonds that may matureand fail to be re-hedged (R900m). A report by the IMF in February 2017 cites thebacklog of forex purchase orders in the banking system at a conservative estimateof about $3bn. Given this backlog alongside budget shortfalls, we struggle to seematerial extraction of NPK's R2.2bn of trapped cash. For this reason, we give NPKnone of this benefit in our DCF calculation. These developments do, however,bode positively for future cash extraction.

We cut our FY18 and FY19 earnings estimates by 16% and 13%, respectivelyThe continued demand slack and loss of some volumes to competitors/verticalintegration has resulted in us reducing our earnings estimates for FY18 (R1.86e)

Munira Kharva, CFA

Research Analyst

+27-011-775-7433

Key changes

Target Price 22.50 to 18.50 ↓ -17.8%

Rating Buy to Hold ↓Source: Deutsche Bank

Price/price relative

Nampak FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE (Rebased)

Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '17

20

30

10

40

Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m

Absolute -8.2 -7.8 9.4

FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE 2.9 7.1 20.5Source: Deutsche Bank

Key indicators (FY1)

ROE (%) 12.0

ROA (%) 4.6

Net debt/equity (%) 16.9

Book value/share (ZAR) 16.4

Price/book (x) 1.1

Net interest cover (x) 4.8

EBIT margin (%) 10.7Source: Deutsche Bank

1 December 2017 CEEMEA & Latam Daybook

Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 9

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30 November 2017

General RetailersPeriodical

Sub-Saharan AfricaSouth Africa

Industry

SA CompanyResults Diary

Date30 November 2017

4-8 December 2017 (FY17: SNH; 1H18:AFH)Deutsche Bank forecasts for companies reporting results next week.

Date Company Rating Target price

1 Monday, 4 December 2017 Alexander Forbes Ltd Buy R 7.75

2 Monday, 4 December 2017 Steinhoff International Holdings Ltd Hold R 70.00

Prices are as at Thursday, 30 November 2017; Source: Deutsche Bank

Stefan Swanepoel

Research Analyst

+27-11-775-7483

Charlie Muir-Sands, CFA

Research Analyst

+44-20-754-75749

1 December 2017 CEEMEA & Latam Daybook

Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 10

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30 November 2017

Banking / Finance

Chilean Banks

Banking / FinanceIndustry Update

Latin AmericaChile

Industry

Chilean BanksDate30 November 2017

October results show weak start to4Q17Net income takes a hit from deflationThe SBIF released system data for October, showing that net income fell 26%mom (-2% yoy) and ROE declined to 9.5% from 12.9% last month and 10.1% lastyear. Results reflect the negative impact of 0.1% deflation in the month, as wellas continued slow loan growth, partially offset by stable asset quality. Results fellfor both Banco de Chile and Santander Chile on the lower inflation with overallsimilar trends. Weak start to the quarter and premium valuations of 14.3x '18E P/E at Banco de Chile and 14.5x at Santander Chile keep us at Hold.

Muted loan growth, but stable asset qualitySystem loan growth was flat in October (+5% yoy), as weak growth in corporateloans (flat mom, +2% yoy) offset modest growth in consumer lending (+1% mom,+9% yoy). Meanwhile, asset quality has been stable at 1.9% since May andbasically in-line with last year.

Weak start to 4Q17 for Banco de Chile...Net income for October was Ch$34.4bn, down 32% from September (-18% yoy),given the impact of lower inflation on net interest income (-11% mom, -7% yoy),as well as higher provisions (+22% mom, +5% yoy), and a higher tax rate of 22%vs. 16% last month. As such, ROE fell to 13.6% from 20.0% in September and17.5% last year. Aside from weaker net interest income, trading gains fell 34%mom (+1% yoy). Positively, fee income rose 4% mom (flat yoy), while expensesfell 5% mom (-5% yoy). Meanwhile, loan growth was flat in October (+2% yoy),given no growth in corporate or consumer loans. However, the NPL ratio has beenbasically stable at 1.2% since last year. Finally, results for the quarter are runningat only Ch$103bn, 30% below our forecast of Ch$147bn.

...and for Santander Chile as wellNet income of Ch$34.3bn fell 28% mom (-15% yoy), also on lower net interestincome (-6% mom, -1% yoy), as well as a higher tax rate of 30% vs. 24%last month. ROE fell to 13.5% from 19.1% in September and 17.1% last year.Furthermore, fees fell 3% mom (+10% yoy) and provisions rose 6% mom (+3%yoy) despite relatively stable asset quality. This was partially offset by highertrading gains (+66% mom, -28% yoy) and good cost control, with expenses flatmom (+3% yoy). Meanwhile, loans fell 1% mom (+2% yoy), driven by a declinein corporate loans (-1% mom, flat yoy). Finally, net income is running 20% belowDBe of Ch$129bn for the quarter.

Tito Labarta

Research Analyst

+1-212-250-5944

Companies featured

Banco de Chile (BCH.N),USD83.31 Hold

2016A 2017E 2018E

EPS (CLP) 5.66 5.84 6.26

P/E (x) 14.2 15.3 14.3

Price/BV (x) 2.7 2.9 2.7

Santander Chile (BSAC.N),USD28.03 Hold

2016A 2017E 2018E

EPS (CLP) 2.51 2.97 3.11

P/E (x) 14.5 15.2 14.5

Price/BV (x) 2.4 2.7 2.5Source: Deutsche Bank

1 December 2017 CEEMEA & Latam Daybook

Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 11

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30 November 2017

Brazil Update

Latin AmericaBrazil

Economics

Brazil UpdateDate30 November 2017

We expect 3Q GDP to grow 0.3% QoQ

Highlights:■ We expect 3Q17 GDP to grow 0.3% QoQ

■ Unemployment fell to 12.2% in October

■ The Lower House Speaker is concerned about the pension reform

Jose Carlos Faria

Chief Economist

+55-11-2113-5185

1 December 2017 CEEMEA & Latam Daybook

Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 12

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30 November 2017

Focus Europe

Europe Economics

Focus EuropeDate30 November 2017

2018 Outlook: The return of macrovolatilityBrexit has hit the UK economy, but the euro area economy is flying. The latestsurveys imply euro area GDP may be growing 3%+ annualised in the final quarterof 2017 with little to suggest this won't continue for the time being.

It is precisely because of this very strong growth impulse that we feel the recentspell of unusually low macro volatility will inevitably change in 2018. Gaps withinthe data raise serious questions about the sustainability of growth at the currentpace. Although we have raised 2018 calendar year GDP growth to 2.3%, the sameas 2017, this masks sequential slowing through the year.

Table of contents

2018 Outlook: The return of macro volatility 3

A new post-crisis record, but gaps mean this

ヴ;デW ラa GDP ェヴラ┘デエ ┘ラミげデ ノ;ゲデ6

Inflation: Targeting 1.5% core in 2019 8

Slow ECB exit justified to foster inflation, but

ノララゲW ヮラノキI┞ ゲデ;ミIW ┘ラミげデ ノ;ゲデ11

Euro area labour market: not a simple lag to

the US

13

What's financing the recovery? 15

EU Politics: GWヴマ;ミ┞げゲ ヮラノキデキI;ノ キマヮ;ゲゲW ゲヮラキノゲ EMU reform timeline

17

Regional autonomy movements in Europe -

also about finances

19

Germany: Capex cycle unfazed by political

uncertainty

21

France : Cyclical and structural green lights for

2018

22

Italy: Cyclical momentum versus election

uncertainty

23

Spain: Enough momentum to face headwinds 24

Netherlands: A growth engine 25

UK: Secular stagflation 26

Brexit: The end of the beginning 27

Rate Views 28

Research Team Contacts 29

Growth will nevertheless remain above trend, further tightening an economyalready beginning to show signs of the ramifications associated with persistentabove trend growth. Inflation is beginning to slowly rise yet the market has arigid, adaptive, backward-looking view. German wage settlements could changeperceptions. It will still take a few years for inflation to fully normalise, but ourconfidence in a turning point is building. We expect the ECB hawks to grow innumber over the next year. An acceleration in credit growth could reduce the exitinflation hurdle.

The political cycle is not over. On the one hand, the Macron Pivot has a lotto prove in terms of integration. Our expectations for economic integration arelimited; more fundamental integration could come through migration, securityand defence. On the other, while we expect muddle through in Italy, our anxietyaround the ability to form a stable government is rising and markets are likely tobe reminded that the crisis is structural — a fast economic cycle alone cannotcure it. With at best a transitional deal in principle in the near term, the Brexitrisks to the UK economy won’t easily or quickly dissipate either and we hold oursub-consensus UK growth view for 2018.

Beyond the Italian election the end of ECB QE net purchases will be in sight atend-18 as will the first ECB policy rate hike in mid-19. In many respects 2018 willbe a year of transition between equilibria, and not all adjustments can be expectedto be priced smoothly.

Mark Wall

Chief Economist

+44-20-754-52087

1 December 2017 CEEMEA & Latam Daybook

Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 13

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1 December 2017

CEEMEA & Latam Daybook

Page 14 Deutsche Bank AG/London

Economic Calendar Country GMT Release DB Expected Actual Consensus Previous

Monday, 27 November

MX 11:00 Trade Balance (Oct), USD, m -USD1,886.4m

IL 14:00 BoI rate decision (Nov) 0.10%rate 0.10%rate

US 15:00 New Home Sales (Oct) -0.70% 667.0k (18.9%)

MX 11:00 Trade Balance (Oct), USD, m -USD1,886.4m

IL 14:00 BoI rate decision (Nov) 0.10%rate 0.10%rate

US 15:00 New Home Sales (Oct) -0.70% 667.0k (18.9%)

MX 11:00 Trade Balance (Oct), USD, m -USD1,886.4m

IL 14:00 BoI rate decision (Nov) 0.10%rate 0.10%rate

Tuesday, 28 November

BR 07:00 FGV Inflation IGP- M (Nov) 0.20% 0.20%

ZA 10:00 BER Business Confidence Index (Q4), Index 35

MX 11:00 Unemployment Rate (Oct) 3.6%rate 3.6%rate

US 15:00 Consumer Confidence (Nov), Index 125.9

US 15:00 Richmond Fed (Nov), Index 12

Wednesday, 29 November

ZA 06:00 M3 (Oct) -6.70%

ZA 06:00 PSCE (Oct) -5.59%

HU 08:00 Unemployment rate (Oct) 4.1%rate

CL 09:00 Industrial production (Oct) -2.50% -1.00%

BR 09:30 Primary budget balance (Oct), BRL, bn BRL4.0bn -BRL21.3bn

IL 11:00 Services exports (Sep), sa -26.20%

RU 13:00 Weekly CPI (Nov) 0.00%

US 13:30 Corporate Profits prelim (Q3), sa 0.7% (6.4%)

US 13:30 GDP Deflator prelim (Q3) 2.20% 1.6% (1.6%)

US 13:30 GDP prelim (Q3), sa 3.00% 3.1% (2.2%)

US 15:00 Pending Home Sales (Oct) 1.00% 0.00%

Thursday, 30 November

TR 07:00 Merchandise trade balance (Oct), USD, bn -USD7.3bn -USD8.1bn

BR 08:00 National Unemployment rate (Oct) 12.40% 12.40%

HU 08:00 PPI (Oct) -4.10%

PL 09:00 GDP (Q3), nsa -4.70% -3.90%

CZ 09:00 M2 (and money supply) (Oct) -10.30%

CL 09:00 Unemployment rate (Oct) 6.70%rate 6.70%rate

ZA 09:30 PPI (Oct) -5.20%

ZA 12:00 Merchandise trade balance (Oct), ZAR, bn ZAR4.0bn

CO 12:00 Unemployment rate (Oct) 9.2%rate

CO 12:00 Urban Unemployment rate (Oct) 10.2%rate 10.5%rate

RU 13:00 CBR FX reserves (Nov), USD, bn USD427.6bn

TR 13:00 CBT FX reserves (Nov), USD, bn USD94.5bn

PL 13:00 CPI(flash) (Nov) 0.1% (2.3%) 0.5% (2.1%)

US 13:30 Continuing Claims (Nov), k 1,904.0k

US 13:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Nov), k 240.0k 239.0k

US 13:30 Core PCE Deflator (Oct), sa 0.20% 0.20% 0.1% (1.3%)

US 13:30 PCE Deflator (Oct) 0.4% (1.6%)

US 13:30 PCE (Oct) 0.30% 0.30% 1.0% (4.4%)

US 13:30 Personal Income (Oct) 0.40% 0.30% 0.4% (3.0%)

US 14:45 Chicago PMI (Nov), Index 63 63 66.2

AR 16:00 Construction activity (Oct) -13.40%

AR 16:00 Industrial Production (Oct), nsa -2.50% -2.30%

Source: Deutsche Bank

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1 December 2017

CEEMEA & Latam Daybook

Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 15

Indices Region/Country Index Price local Vol ($m) Price Performance in %($ Terms)

30-Nov-17 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y

EM MSCI EMF 59,489.38 na -1.5 -2.8 -0.5 24.8 19.7 32.2 16.1

EMEA MSCI EMEA 538.98 na -0.9 -0.8 1.6 10.3 9.1 24.3 5.2

LatAm MSCI LatAm 81,155.23 na -1.1 -2.8 -4.4 12.9 14.4 13.2 6.3

Asia MSCI Asia 904.82 na -1.7 -3.2 -0.3 30.7 23.9 40.8 24.6

CEEMA

Czech Republic PX 1,059.27 48 1.0 1.4 2.3 37.8 8.9 -3.6 -50.0

Greece ASE 740.20 110 0.6 3.1 1.6 30.0 -26.6 -16.2 -88.1

Hungary BSE 38,673.73 62 -0.4 -3.1 -1.4 35.1 108.4 74.2 -1.8

Israel TA-25 1,455.43 466 0.5 2.1 1.9 9.0 10.0 29.0 34.5

Poland WIG 62,440.31 857 -0.6 -2.4 -0.2 42.9 11.4 24.0 -23.4

Russia RTS$ 1,131.56 1350 -1.1 -2.3 0.7 -1.8 16.1 -21.2 -49.0

Turkey ISE 100 103,984.39 1825 2.5 -1.1 -7.5 19.4 -31.8 -35.2 -42.2

Bahrain BHSEASI 1,283.71 4 0.0 0.6 0.6 5.2 -10.1 22.4 -50.5

Egypt CASE 14,582.22 74 0.0 3.2 2.3 21.5 -36.7 2.8 -53.2

Jordan ASEGI 2,122.47 23 0.0 0.9 1.9 -2.2 -0.5 10.0 -38.5

Kuwait KWSEIDX 6,196.50 50 0.0 -0.5 -5.3 9.4 -11.5 -2.7 -53.3

Oman MSM30 5,109.62 6 0.1 0.5 2.6 -11.6 -21.5 -7.7 -39.5

Qatar DSM20 7,714.26 97 -0.9 -0.4 -5.9 -26.1 -39.5 -8.2 -17.6

Saudi Arabia TASI 7,003.97 876 0.5 1.8 0.8 -2.9 -18.7 7.2 -26.2

UAE, Abu Dhabi ADSMI 4,283.07 44 0.0 -0.1 -3.9 -5.8 -8.3 60.1 NA

UAE, Dubai DFMGI 3,420.97 172 0.0 -1.2 -5.8 -3.1 -20.1 112.8 -36.1

South Africa JSE All Share 59,772.83 3438 -1.6 0.5 4.3 18.4 -3.3 2.0 -2.0

ASIA

China HSCCI 4,293.74 1128 -1.5 -1.7 -2.0 18.8 -6.0 -2.9 -31.9

China A-Shares SHASHR 3,474.01 28778 -0.5 -1.4 -1.6 12.3 15.0 57.9 -24.0

India BSE 30 33,149.35 69 -1.6 -1.1 0.2 31.2 11.2 44.3 5.2

Indonesia JSE CI 5,952.14 866 -1.5 -1.5 1.7 27.1 10.4 27.5 80.0

Korea KOSPI 2,476.37 8343 -2.5 -2.6 2.3 35.4 27.3 27.5 10.4

Malaysia KLCI 1,717.86 791 -0.4 0.2 1.8 14.7 -22.0 -20.8 1.0

Pakistan KSE 29,112.94 152 0.6 0.4 0.7 -12.2 24.0 128.5 70.5

Philippines MSE CI 8,254.03 316 -0.3 -0.6 1.1 18.8 0.9 18.5 95.8

Taiwan TWSE 10,560.44 7352 -1.6 -2.9 -1.2 22.9 18.6 34.9 32.2

Thailand SET 1,697.39 1804 -0.6 -0.5 0.6 20.9 7.2 20.7 108.1

LATAM

Argentina MERVAL 26,905.26 14 0.7 -0.9 0.4 45.9 35.1 210.9 121.5

Brazil BOVESPA 71,970.99 3406 -1.8 -4.9 -3.3 18.9 3.2 -18.2 NA

Chile IPSA 5,003.40 322 -1.0 -2.7 -12.2 24.5 17.5 -10.4 21.6

Colombia IGBC 10,808.29 77 -0.7 -1.8 1.3 6.4 -34.2 -54.1 -34.0

Mexico IPC 47,092.44 852 -1.7 -2.3 -0.4 14.7 -20.4 -21.7 -7.5

Peru IBVL 19,694.09 15 -0.4 -1.1 -0.4 31.3 17.8 -21.7 0.3

Venezuela BVC 1,319.87 2536 13.1 87.3 93.3 -95.8 27700.5 139005.6 746659.8 Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

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Currencies Country Currency Last Price Price Performance Forecasts 30-Nov-17 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 3M 6M 12M EMEA

Czech Republic CZK 21.4 -0.5 0.4 -2.7 -16.2 -3.1 10.2 21.6 21.5 20.8

Hungary HUF 262.9 -0.1 0.6 -1.7 -10.3 7.2 21.6 267.5 269.2 260.0

Israel ILS 3.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -8.9 -10.8 -8.3 3.5 3.5 3.4

Poland PLN 3.5 -0.5 0.1 -3.3 -15.6 5.4 11.6 3.5 3.5 3.4

Russia RUB 58.5 -0.1 0.2 0.5 -4.6 12.9 89.2 56.6 56.8 57.0

Turkey TRY 3.9 -0.7 0.1 3.1 11.7 77.6 120.5 3.8 3.8 3.9

South Africa ZAR 13.7 0.1 -1.6 -3.0 -0.3 24.5 54.0 12.4 12.3 12.0

ASIA

China CNY 6.6 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -4.9 7.6 6.1 6.9 7.0 7.1

India INR 64.5 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -5.1 3.8 18.3 66.0 66.0 66.0

Indonesia IDR 13,526.3 0.2 0.2 -0.4 0.6 10.3 41.0 13,870.0 13,990.0 14,180.0

Korea KRW 1,085.7 0.5 0.2 -2.3 -10.1 -2.5 0.3 1,130.0 1,140.0 1,160.0

Malaysia MYR 4.1 0.2 -0.7 -3.4 -8.8 19.1 34.5 4.4 4.4 4.6

Pakistan PKR 105.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.3 9.1 na na na

Philippines PHP 50.3 -0.1 -0.6 -2.6 1.2 12.3 23.0 52.5 53.2 53.5

Taiwan TWD 30.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -6.9 -3.4 3.2 31.2 31.5 31.7

Thailand THB 32.6 0.3 -0.2 -1.5 -8.9 -0.9 6.3 33.7 33.9 34.2

LATAM

Argentina ARS 17.4 0.3 0.0 -1.3 9.1 104.4 260.4 18.3 19.0 20.3

Brazil BRL 3.3 1.6 1.3 -0.1 0.5 27.5 55.0 3.2 3.3 3.3

Chile CLP 648.0 0.7 2.2 2.0 -2.8 5.9 34.8 642.0 645.0 650.0

Mexico MXN 18.6 0.7 0.6 -2.6 -9.8 33.8 44.3 19.4 19.4 19.5

Colombia COP 3,010.1 0.2 1.1 -1.3 0.3 33.0 65.9 2,990.1 3,005.0 3,034.7

Peru PEN 3.2 0.1 -0.1 -1.0 -3.7 10.5 25.2 3.2 3.2 3.2

Other Nations

Euro EUR 0.8 -0.5 0.2 -2.5 -11.6 4.7 9.1 0.9 0.9 0.8

UK GBP 0.7 -0.7 -1.3 -2.0 -8.9 16.4 18.5 0.8 0.8 0.8

Switzerland CHF 1.0 -0.2 0.3 -1.9 -3.5 1.9 6.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Japan JPY 112.1 0.1 0.5 -1.7 -4.1 -5.2 35.9 117.0 118.0 120.0

Hong Kong HKD 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 Source: Bloomberg Financial LP

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Commodities

Price local Performance (% )

Forecasts

30-Nov-17 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y 2016E 2017E 2018E

BASE METAL

Aluminium ($/mt) 2,048.0 -1.0 -3.9 -5.5 21.0 0.2 -0.8 -18.2 1788 1728 1670

Copper ($/mt) 6,762.0 0.0 -3.4 -1.0 22.2 3.1 -14.4 -1.7 5900 5725 6800

Nickel ($/mt) 11,050.0 -3.6 -7.8 -4.3 10.9 -32.2 -34.8 -58.5 10625 11250 12500

Iron Ore($/mt) 66.4 0.0 0.6 11.8 -15.0 -4.3 -43.2 na 69 54 56

Zinc ($/mt) 3,197.0 1.6 -2.3 -0.1 24.7 40.8 59.4 28.1 3100 2538 2100

Tin ($/mt) 19,775.0 1.3 0.6 -0.1 -6.3 -2.9 -8.5 17.0 20510 19613 19408

OIL

WTI (Oil) 57.4 0.2 -2.5 6.5 6.9 -22.1 -34.8 -36.9 54 60 62

PRECIOUS METAL

Gold ($/Oz.) 1,274.9 -0.7 -1.1 0.1 10.6 7.0 -26.1 60.8 1203 1255 1288

Palladium Spot $/Oz 1,010.1 -0.6 1.1 3.9 48.3 25.4 47.6 194.5 748 783 850

Platinum Spot $/Oz 942.7 0.3 0.0 2.7 4.3 -22.6 -41.5 -34.4 996 1125 1250

Silver Spot $/Oz 16.4 -0.6 -3.8 -2.6 3.3 1.1 -52.0 16.0 17.2 18.5 19.0 Source: Bloomberg Financial LP

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CE

EM

EA

& Latam

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Macro Data GDP Growth

(YoY %)

GDP Nominal ($bn)

GDP per Capita ($)

CPI

(YoY %)

CA Balance

(% GDP)

Fiscal Balance

(% GDP)

Total Govt Debt

(% GDP)

Total Ext Debt

(% GDP)

Country 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E

CEEMEA

Czech Republic 3.8 3.0 191 18116 2.4 2.2 1.3 1.0 0.3 0 35.7 34.7 69.6 62.4

Egypt 3.5 4.1 NA NA 29.9 16.9 -5.1 -3.8 -10.9 -9.9 101.2 88.8 NA NA

Hungary 3.8 3.5 137 13936 2.3 2.6 3.1 2.5 -2.3 -2.4 72.4 71.1 95.4 94.4

Israel 3.6 3.6 353 40536 0.1 0.6 3.5 3.0 -2.5 -2.5 60.4 60.0 24.3 22.2

Kazakhstan 3.6 3.6 NA NA 6.5 6.5 -1.9 -1.9 0.1 0.1 NA NA NA NA

Poland 3.9 3.4 519 13660 1.9 2.0 -1.0 -1.1 -2.7 -2.9 53.3 53.9 71.9 71.4

Russia 2.0 1.8 1569 10683 3.8 3.5 2.9 3.2 -2.5 -1.4 15.2 15.7 33.6 32.6

Saudi Arabia 1.6 1.6 NA NA 4.0 4.0 -6.8 -6.8 -9.5 -9.5 17.0 20.7 NA NA

South Africa 0.8 1.7 352 6196 5.2 4.4 -2.5 -3.1 -4 -3.3 51.7 52.1 36.7 30.3

Turkey 5.2 4.1 840 10579 10.8 8.5 -4.9 -4.7 -2.0 -2.4 28.4 28.9 50.2 49.1

United Arab Emirates 2.7 2.7 NA NA 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 0.3 0.3 20.7 20.8 43.0 NA

ASIA

China 6.8 6.3 12065 8560 1.7 2.7 1.2 1.1 -4 -4 41.6 42.1 13.0 13.20088

India 6.5 7.5 2514 1924 3.1 4.4 -1.3 -1.5 -3.2 -3 69.1 67.4 19.8 18.9

Indonesia 5.0 4.8 1009 3854 3.9 3.2 -1.6 -1.4 -1.7 -1.4 27.4 28.5 31.1 28.9

Korea 2.9 2.7 1496 29339 2.1 2.0 5.7 5.1 0.7 0.7 41.5 42.6 27.3 27.7

Malaysia 5.5 5.0 313 9762 3.5 2.5 2.7 2.5 -3.2 -3.0 66.3 65.6 62.4 54.7

Philippines 6.4 5.7 313 2982 3.2 3.4 1.0 2.0 -2.6 -2.8 44.2 43.1 23.3 21.9

Taiwan 2.2 2.2 566 24028 0.7 1.5 12.7 11.9 -0.5 -0.4 38.1 38.5 31.8 32.6

Thailand 3.7 3.6 447 6748 0.7 1.7 9.4 8.6 -2.0 -1.9 38.0 38.7 31.8 31.6

LATAM

Argentina 2.8 2.9 612 14 27.1 18.1 -3.5 -3.8 -6.2 -5.5 45.2 50.1 31.9 31.4

Brazil 0.7 2.6 2034 9802 3.4 3.4 -0.6 -1.4 -8.1 -7.5 75.5 76.7 26.9 25.7

Chile 1.5 2.9 276 15 2.1 1.8 -1.6 -1.3 -3.2 -3.6 23.6 25.6 79.4 85.0

Colombia 1.6 2.5 306 6209 4.3 3.1 -3.4 -3.3 -3.7 -3.4 45.2 46.3 41.7 41.6

Mexico 2.0 2.4 1404 11 6.0 4.2 -1.8 -2.0 -1.9 -2.5 48.7 48.7 23.0 30.2

Peru 2.7 4.0 212 6665 3.0 2.0 -1.8 -1.7 -3.0 -3.5 25.5 27.6 35.7 33.3

Venezuela -12.0 -6.0 215 6850 652.7 2349.3 -0.4 -1.3 -18.5 -18.7 17.3 16.6 65.3 66.8

CEEMEA 3.0 2.8 3961 113706 7.3 5.8 -1.3 -1.2 -3.8 -3.5 33.2 33.5 45.4 43.6

ASIA 6.1 6.0 18723 87196 2.3 3.1 1.5 1.3 -3.1 -3.1 44.8 45.0 18.0 17.8

LATAM 0.9 2.3 5059 29567 37.4 109.4 -1.6 -2.0 -5.8 -5.6 55.2 56.5 32.2 33.9

EM 4.7 4.9 27743 230470 7.8 16.8 0.5 0.3 -3.6 -3.5 45.0 45.5 24.5 24.4

US 2.2 2.4 NA NA 2.1 2.0 -2.9 -3.2 -3.6 -2.8 NA NA NA NA

Europe 2.2 2.0 NA NA 1.5 1.4 3.0 2.6 -1.3 -1.3 NA NA NA NA

Japan 1.5 0.7 NA NA 0.3 0.4 4.0 4.2 -3.5 -3.1 NA NA NA NA Source: Deutsche Bank, IMF

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Interest Rates Yield Change in bps

(%) 1 M 1 Y

Czech Republic CZK_SW05/6MF/ICAP 0.91 -12 33

Hungary HUF_SW05/6MF 1.12 -26 -35

Israel ILS_SW05 0.82 -10 5

Poland PLN_SW05/6MF/ICAP 2.28 -14 29

Russia RUB_SW05/ICAP 6.80 -33 -140

Saudi Arabia SAR_SW05 3.05 -51 -16

South Africa - ZAR_SW05 7.35 -12 -118

Turkey TRY_SW05 10.77 -15 103

Argentina - ARG ARS BONAR V 3.82 292 84

Brazil - BRL PRE 5Y 10.84 66 -154

Chile - CLP SWAP 5Y 3.38 -7 -72

Colombia - COP_USD_SWAP 5Y 5.14 -18 -161

Mexico - MXN TIIE 5Y 7.16 -11 168

Peru - PEN Nominal/PERUGB AUG 20 4.14 -25 -124 Source: Deutsche Bank

Country Risk 10Yr Credit Default Swap(Bps) (CEEMEA)

Source: Deutsche Bank

Country Risk 10Yr Credit Default Swap(Bps)

Source: Deutsche Bank

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P/BV valuation – By Countries GEM Country Current P/BV Current P/BV versus

country's 10-year historical average P/BV

Current P/BV relative to EM P/BV , versus 10-

year historical average

EM 1.80 4.8% 0.0%

DM 2.47 25.6% 16.6%

US 3.33 34.7% 24.6%

Brazil 1.73 3.5% -0.3%

Chile 1.79 -12.7% -17.3%

China 2.07 9.2% 6.0%

Colombia 1.28 -24.0% -28.0%

Czech Republic 1.48 -16.5% -19.3%

Egypt 3.20 47.6% 41.6%

Greece 0.43 -61.7% -63.1%

Hungary 1.80 40.7% 35.0%

India 3.16 2.1% -3.0%

Indonesia 2.99 -16.0% -20.0%

Korea 1.25 3.1% -1.8%

Malaysia 1.68 -16.4% -21.5%

Mexico 2.60 -6.0% -12.2%

Peru 2.47 -21.7% -23.3%

Philippines 2.58 -5.1% -12.2%

Poland 1.48 6.1% 1.0%

Qatar 1.28 -35.7% -38.9%

Russia 0.82 -14.5% -16.0%

South Africa 2.60 6.1% -0.8%

Taiwan 1.97 8.4% 1.9%

Thailand 2.25 9.2% 1.9%

Turkey 1.31 -16.5% -21.1%

UAE 1.49 13.9% 6.3% Source: Deutsche Bank

P/BV valuation – By EM Sector

GEM Sector Current P/BV Current P/BV versus

sector's 10-year historical

average P/BV

Current P/BV relative to EM

P/BV , versus 10-year

historical average

EM 1.80 4.8% 0.0%

Consumer Discretionary 2.29 7.6% 1.0%

Consumer Staples 4.01 12.2% 3.9%

Energy 0.92 -22.1% -23.3%

Financials 1.28 -16.2% -19.5%

Health Care 4.12 13.2% 4.6%

Industrial 1.44 -11.4% -15.2%

Information Technology 3.34 52.4% 43.1%

Materials 1.50 -6.1% -8.7%

Real Estate 1.51 10.9% 1.4%

Telco 1.99 -14.0% -18.6%

Utilities 1.10 -4.1% -10.1% Source: Deutsche Bank

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CEEMEA valuation 11/30/17 Daily YTD Price P/BV (x) Div Yld % (US$ m)Company Ticker Rating Price Change % Change % Target 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E Mkt Cap

Banks

Abu Dhabi Comm Bank ADCB.AD Buy 7.05 0.0 2.2 8.80 15.6 16.3 8.9 7.9 1.3 6.0 9945

Akbank AKBNK.IS Hold 8.99 1.6 2.9 10.40 16.6 16.1 7.1 6.6 1.1 2.5 9130

Al Rajhi Bank 1120.SE Buy 64.00 0.6 1.6 72.20 16.6 15.6 11.4 11.4 1.9 3.5 27731

Alawwal bank 1040.SE Hold 11.70 0.9 -16.1 11.10 10.3 10.7 9.7 8.7 1.0 2.2 3566

Alinma Bank 1150.SE Hold 18.02 -0.2 19.4 17.15 10.0 10.0 13.2 12.6 1.3 3.4 7154

Arab National Bank 1080.SE Hold 24.80 -0.6 12.0 25.30 12.6 11.2 8.1 8.6 1.0 3.6 6613

Bank Saint-Petersburg BSPB.MM Sell 55.35 0.1 -13.2 32.00 5.2 NA na na 0.4 NA 416

Banque Saudi Fransi 1050.SE Hold 28.90 0.2 10.8 28.80 13.4 11.6 8.8 9.9 1.1 3.6 9254

Barclays Africa Group BGAJ.J Buy 158 -0.6 -6.2 175.00 15.2 14.3 8.1 7.6 1.2 6.6 9776

Capitec Bank CPIJ.J Sell 985 -0.5 42.1 360.00 25.7 25.4 29.9 25.7 7.2 1.3 8327

CIB COMI.CA Hold 75.90 0.0 6.3 73.00 36.3 33.1 10.3 8.9 3.0 2.1 4941

Dubai Islamic Bank DISB.DU Buy 6.05 0.0 8.6 7.30 22.4 21.1 8.3 8.5 1.6 7.6 8124

Emirates NBD ENBD.DU Buy 8.15 0.0 -4.0 12.75 16.7 16.0 6.2 5.9 0.9 5.8 12332

First Abu Dhabi Bank FAB.AD Hold 10.10 0.0 5.5 11.40 12.2 12.5 10.7 9.9 1.2 5.2 29843

Garanti GARAN.IS Buy 9.61 3.7 12.9 11.40 16.2 16.0 6.9 6.2 1.0 3.1 10247

Halkbank HALKB.IS Hold 8.88 1.6 -14.9 15.00 16.7 15.3 3.2 3.1 0.4 2.3 2818

Isbank ISCTR.IS Hold 6.17 2.2 6.6 7.70 14.2 13.7 5.3 5.0 0.7 4.2 7049

National Bank of Kuwait NBKK.KW Buy 721 -0.2 12.1 850.00 11.1 13.9 13.8 10.1 0.0 3.7 13878

NCB 1180.SE Hold 50.80 0.2 19.3 48.50 17.2 16.4 11.2 11.1 1.8 3.2 27049

Nedbank NEDJ.J Buy 231 1.7 -2.6 225.00 14.6 14.6 8.9 8.3 1.4 5.4 8092

Qatar National Bank QNBK.QA Buy 117 -0.1 -19.3 150.00 20.7 19.1 8.5 7.9 1.5 3.8 29678

RAKBANK RAKB.AD Hold 4.70 0.0 -5.1 5.05 10.8 11.9 9.5 8.7 1.0 6.4 2145

Riyad Bank 1010.SE Hold 11.88 -0.5 2.9 11.55 10.5 9.9 9.1 9.7 0.9 5.5 9503

Samba Financial Group 1090.SE Hold 22.60 0.0 -7.1 25.00 11.8 11.0 8.4 8.7 1.0 4.2 11422

Saudi British Bank 1060.SE Buy 26.95 -0.2 7.8 29.00 13.2 11.8 9.3 9.9 1.2 2.9 10779

Sberbank SBER.MM Buy 224 -1.6 35.7 215.00 20.2 19.6 8.0 7.1 1.5 0.0 84071

Standard Bank SBKJ.J Buy 173 -0.2 14.3 170.00 16.3 16.3 10.7 10.0 1.7 5.0 20522

TCS TCSq.L Sell 18.40 -0.3 74.4 7.30 31.1 29.8 19.7 16.4 5.1 1.4 3361

Vakifbank VAKBN.IS Hold 5.79 5.4 19.2 6.90 15.8 14.7 4.3 4.0 0.6 0.8 3675

VTB VTBRq.L Sell 1.79 -5.4 -25.0 0.80 2.3 NA na na 0.5 0.0 11600

Yapi Kredi Bank YKBNK.IS Hold 4.15 3.2 8.3 4.80 12.2 12.4 5.6 4.9 0.6 0.0 4580

Consumer Discretionary

Al Tayyar 1810.SE Buy 25.85 2.2 -29.5 45.00 5.2 4.6 6.9 6.8 0.9 3.9 1445

Alhokair 4240.SE Hold 33.20 2.8 -9.7 42.00 10.4 9.7 19.5 13.4 2.4 0.0 1859

CCC CCCP.WA Buy 240 -2.0 40.9 340.00 18.0 13.0 31.2 20.4 5.9 1.1 2707

Cyfrowy Polsat CPS.WA Hold 24.93 1.9 20.1 28.00 7.1 6.6 14.6 12.6 1.3 1.3 4520

Herfy 6002.SE Buy 49.00 -0.5 -37.2 70.00 10.6 9.7 12.5 11.3 3.5 4.4 845

Imperial IPLJ.J Buy 227 -1.3 24.9 210.00 6.7 6.1 11.6 12.3 2.3 3.8 3229

Jarir Marketing 4190.SE Hold 140 -0.3 21.3 137.00 15.4 14.1 16.0 14.9 7.4 5.0 3369

LPP LPPP.WA Hold 8,174 -1.0 70.7 8,000.00 15.6 13.2 29.0 24.7 5.8 0.4 4249

Mr Price MRPJ.J Buy 208 -2.4 30.7 242.00 15.0 12.7 20.3 20.4 7.9 3.3 3889

Naspers NPNJn.J Buy 3,688 -3.3 83.6 4,423.00 1,624.1 264.8 39.0 43.6 7.8 0.2 116280

Richemont CFRJ.J Buy 117 -1.1 29.3 105.00 16.2 13.3 28.6 22.6 2.6 2.2 48227

SACO 4008.SE Hold 113 -0.3 32.1 90.00 15.3 13.6 18.3 16.3 5.1 4.0 721

STAR SRRJ.J Buy 25.35 -0.3 14.3 29.00 14.4 12.0 26.5 23.3 1.7 1.9 6395

Steinhoff SNHJ.J Hold 56.26 -0.6 -20.9 70.00 8.2 7.2 10.8 9.6 0.9 0.9 17519

Super Group SPGJ.J Buy 39.90 -0.6 3.6 46.00 6.1 4.9 11.7 10.4 1.7 1.6 1016

The Foschini Group Ltd TFGJ.J Buy 158 0.0 -0.5 178.00 9.4 8.2 13.6 14.3 3.6 4.5 2452

Truworths TRUJ.J Buy 80.02 0.0 0.7 93.00 8.3 8.0 12.7 12.1 3.8 5.6 2507

Woolworths Holdings Ltd WHLJ.J Hold 58.00 -0.6 -18.1 59.00 8.4 8.5 17.7 14.5 2.9 5.4 4076

EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA for Banks has been replaced by ROE The Daily and YTD % Price changes refer to the change in US dollar value of the stock Source: Deutsche Bank, Companies

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CEEMEA valuation 11/30/17 Daily YTD Price P/BV (x) Div Yld % (US$ m)Company Ticker Rating Price Change % Change % Target 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E Mkt Cap

Consumer Staples

Almarai 2280.SE Sell 55.60 -0.9 2.9 48.00 16.2 15.8 23.9 23.0 3.8 1.3 14826

AVI AVIJ.J Buy 101 0.3 10.3 110.00 12.3 11.1 18.5 17.7 6.7 3.8 2389

BidCorp BIDJ.J Hold 295 -1.1 20.7 305.00 15.0 13.4 22.2 21.2 4.2 1.7 7164

British American Tobacco BTIJ.J Buy 876 -2.5 12.8 600.00 13.5 na 18.4 na 0.2 3.6 110178

Clicks Group Ltd CLSJ.J Hold 173 -0.3 50.5 154.00 19.2 17.0 25.8 30.8 12.4 1.0 2999

Dino DNP.WA Buy 72.84 -2.9 137 76.00 20.3 15.8 32.2 24.5 8.0 0.0 2025

Eurocash EUR.WA Hold 27.48 -1.9 -17.2 34.00 10.3 9.8 28.2 22.1 3.8 2.7 1082

Lenta LNTAq.L Hold 5.77 -3.4 -29.6 6.80 7.3 6.4 13.0 11.0 2.3 0.0 2808

Magnit MGNT.MM Hold 6,359 -0.2 -39.0 9,000.00 8.2 6.9 17.2 13.1 2.9 4.0 10280

Magnit MGNTq.L Hold 26.42 0.1 -39.8 37.00 9.6 8.0 20.1 15.3 3.5 3.3 12492

Massmart MSMJ.J Buy 112 0.5 -10.8 125.00 8.2 7.5 19.8 17.4 3.6 2.5 1776

Othaim 4001.SE Hold 126 1.3 28.2 116.00 15.8 13.7 19.3 17.0 4.0 1.6 1514

Pick'n Pay Stores PIKJ.J Hold 63.65 2.4 0.2 62.00 11.5 9.5 28.6 22.0 7.6 2.5 2245

Pioneer PFGJ.J Hold 131 3.8 -14.7 125.00 17.4 10.2 27.1 15.7 3.8 2.8 1782

Shoprite SHPJ.J Hold 228 0.2 33.2 237.00 12.1 11.0 19.4 20.0 4.6 2.3 9046

Spar Group Limited SPPJ.J Hold 190 -1.4 -4.2 200.00 12.0 11.0 18.3 18.5 5.6 3.4 2673

Tiger Brands TBSJ.J Hold 417 1.8 5.2 410.00 13.6 12.2 18.5 16.4 4.0 2.5 5067

X5 Retail Group PJPq.L Buy 37.10 0.8 14.3 57.00 7.7 6.3 18.3 13.4 3.7 1.4 10074

Diversified Financials

Alexander Forbes AFHJ.J Buy 6.50 -2.4 -18.0 7.75 na na 12.6 10.8 na 5.8 599

Brait BATJ.J Buy 46.19 2.1 -47.1 62.00 na na na na na NA 1709

Coronation CMLJ.J Sell 72.30 -2.4 2.8 68.00 12.4 12.4 17.1 14.9 12.1 6.2 1849

FirstRand FSRJ.J Hold 56.35 -1.3 6.3 50.00 3.2 3.2 10.8 11.8 2.9 4.5 23108

Investec INVP.L Buy 517 0.6 5.9 590.00 0.0 0.0 11.7 9.8 0.0 4.7 6295

Investec INLJ.J Buy 95.04 -0.6 5.0 110.00 1.3 1.3 9.6 9.3 1.4 4.7 6258

JSE JSEJ.J Buy 134 1.8 -18.3 144.00 10.7 8.5 14.1 11.7 3.7 4.2 839

Moscow Exchange MOEX.MM Buy 124 -1.1 3.7 185.00 5.6 5.4 10.9 10.7 2.2 6.4 4737

Peregrine PGRJ.J Buy 26.68 -2.0 -10.9 31.75 na na 12.7 9.9 na 4.5 412

RMB Holdings Ltd RMHJ.J Buy 66.92 -0.7 1.0 63.00 2.5 2.5 12.0 11.4 2.3 4.8 6908

Transaction Capital TCPJ.J Buy 15.00 0.5 4.0 16.75 2.9 2.9 14.8 12.2 2.7 2.3 655

Energy

Dana Gas DANA.AD Hold 0.70 0.0 29.6 0.62 20.2 20.7 na na 0.5 0.0 1328

Gazprom GAZP.MM Hold 132 -0.9 -10.4 115.00 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.4 0.2 6.6 49928

Gazprom Neft SIBN.MM Hold 251 -1.8 22.9 235.00 4.2 3.7 4.9 3.9 0.8 4.3 20244

Gulf Int'l Services GISS.QA Buy 15.04 -2.7 -51.7 27.00 8.5 6.9 24.5 10.6 0.8 6.4 768

KazMunaiGas E&P KMGq.L Hold 11.65 -0.4 51.5 12.00 1.4 1.6 8.1 13.1 0.8 1.3 4775

LUKOIL LKOH.MM Buy 3,293 -0.4 0.0 3,800.00 3.5 3.5 7.0 7.0 0.7 5.9 40128

Novatek NVTKq.L Hold 113 -1.6 -12.7 102.00 10.6 10.1 13.9 12.7 2.7 2.2 34214

Rosneft ROSN.MM Buy 294 -0.2 -23.6 355.00 5.7 4.8 6.3 4.8 0.9 3.4 53193

Sasol SOLJ.J Hold 430 1.0 8.1 380.00 6.4 7.2 11.0 12.2 1.2 3.7 19203

Surgutneftegaz SNGS.MM Hold 27.50 -2.3 -6.9 29.00 2.8 3.2 4.4 5.4 0.3 2.2 20416

Surgutneftegaz SNGS_p.MM Buy 28.39 -2.8 -7.2 32.00 2.9 3.4 4.5 5.5 0.3 2.1 21077

Tatneft TATN.MM Hold 457 -2.2 12.1 525.00 5.0 5.5 7.3 8.2 1.5 11.3 17572

Transneft TRNF_p.MM Buy 178,000 -3.1 -5.8 250,000.00 3.6 3.4 5.8 5.7 0.7 4.6 21677

Health Care

Aspen APNJ.J Hold 306 -2.7 8.0 305.00 15.1 13.1 21.0 17.6 2.9 0.9 10195

IDH IDHC.L Hold 4.71 -1.3 39.6 3.21 20.2 16.9 28.9 23.8 5.6 3.0 707

Life HC LHCJ.J Hold 26.11 -1.5 -19.7 30.60 9.1 8.7 13.5 14.8 2.7 4.2 2441

MDMG MDMGq.L Buy 10.30 -1.9 9.8 13.80 10.8 10.5 17.0 17.2 3.1 1.7 771

Mediclinic MEIJ.J Hold 101 2.5 -22.1 93.50 11.3 12.6 29.7 20.5 0.0 1.8 5446

Mediclinic International MDCM.L Hold 566 5.5 -19.5 502.00 11.6 12.9 29.6 20.5 0.0 1.7 5635

Netcare NTCJ.J Hold 22.50 0.3 -29.2 29.20 8.2 7.7 12.2 11.5 2.5 4.5 2248

NMC Health NMC.L Buy 2,849 -0.7 103 3,920.00 25.1 19.7 37.0 26.2 7.3 0.4 7987

SPIMACO 2070.SE Buy 28.50 1.1 -30.1 50.00 15.9 14.6 13.5 12.7 1.1 3.5 912

Industrials

Arabtec Holding ARTC.DU Hold 2.45 0.0 -54.1 2.96 14.1 11.1 37.0 32.6 2.3 0.0 1001

Barloworld BAWJ.J Buy 154 2.8 31.1 145.00 5.8 5.0 11.6 11.5 1.6 2.5 2377

Bidvest BVTJ.J Hold 191 -1.6 5.9 168.00 8.3 8.5 14.7 14.6 2.9 3.0 4667

DP World DPW.DI Buy 24.05 0.0 37.4 28.00 10.2 9.4 15.6 14.1 2.1 1.7 19962

Drake & Scull DSI.DU Hold 1.92 0.0 0.0 0.40 na 35.8 na 55.7 3.6 0.0 1178

Enka Insaat ENKAI.IS Hold 5.64 -0.7 -6.1 5.70 7.2 5.8 8.6 7.3 1.0 3.3 6014

Global Ports GLPRq.L Hold 3.99 2.2 -0.4 4.50 6.9 6.1 8.7 7.8 1.9 0.0 761

Globaltrans GLTRq.L Buy 9.20 1.7 45.3 9.50 5.3 4.5 12.0 9.9 2.0 9.4 1644

Industries Qatar IQCD.QA Buy 88.75 -3.0 -24.5 125.00 43.9 36.3 15.0 13.6 1.4 4.2 14746

Orascom Construction OC.DI Hold 7.60 0.0 45.0 7.60 3.7 4.4 7.5 6.2 2.4 0.0 895

Tekfen Holding TKFEN.IS Hold 14.16 -2.4 96.3 10.70 6.9 6.7 9.2 9.0 1.9 2.2 1330

Insurance

Discovery DSYJ.J Sell 165 -0.3 44.2 125.00 na na 22.2 19.2 na 1.2 7771

Liberty LBHJ.J Buy 116 0.0 4.9 125.00 na na 11.1 9.9 na 6.4 2373

MMI MMIJ.J Hold 20.08 -1.6 -14.7 20.00 na na 9.6 8.9 na 8.2 2355

Old Mutual OMLJ.J Buy 36.37 -1.5 5.9 44.00 na na 0.1 0.1 na 355.0 12689

RMI RMIJ.J Hold 42.42 0.4 6.9 41.00 na na 15.4 12.7 na 2.9 4609

Sanlam SLMJ.J Buy 78.26 -1.3 24.7 84.00 na na 16.0 13.9 na 3.9 11710

Santam SNTJ.J Hold 259 -0.2 10.9 285.00 na na na na na na na

EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA for Banks has been replaced by ROE The Daily and YTD % Price changes refer to the change in US dollar value of the stock Source: Deutsche Bank, Companies

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CEEMEA valuation 11/30/17 Daily YTD Price P/BV (x) Div Yld % (US$ m)Company Ticker Rating Price Change % Change % Target 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E Mkt Cap

Materials

Amplats AMSJ.J Buy 364 -2.2 38.1 420.00 9.3 7.4 37.8 18.9 2.4 0.0 6982

AngloGold Ashanti ANGJ.J Buy 143 0.8 -6.2 175.00 7.7 5.2 62.2 15.0 1.6 0.0 4310

Antofagasta PLC ANTO.L Sell 910 -0.5 47.9 800.00 6.6 6.6 17.6 18.2 1.7 3.3 12125

Gold Fields GFIJ.J Buy 58.19 0.2 33.8 65.00 4.2 4.6 17.2 26.7 1.0 1.9 3492

Harmony HARJ.J Hold 25.22 5.2 -19.8 25.00 7.8 2.7 13.6 7.4 0.4 4.0 808

Impala Platinum IMPJ.J Hold 39.00 -8.3 -8.5 45.00 9.2 7.2 na 184.7 0.6 0.2 2048

Lonmin Plc LONJ.J Sell 11.98 2.8 -48.8 4.90 na na na na 0.2 0.0 247

Ma'aden 1211.SE Sell 54.50 -0.4 39.8 31.00 24.5 18.4 91.6 49.5 2.4 0.0 16981

Nampak NPKJ.J Hold 17.90 0.9 -3.3 18.50 4.9 4.7 14.8 9.5 1.2 0.0 838

Northam NHMJ.J Hold 49.80 -0.1 23.3 56.00 23.1 10.1 na 56.3 2.2 0.0 1274

Pfleiderer Group SA PFLP.WA Hold 35.50 -0.9 14.0 40.00 6.1 5.5 24.8 15.4 2.2 2.8 651

RBPlat RBPJ.J Hold 31.60 0.2 -11.0 36.00 21.6 18.7 88.6 33.3 0.5 0.0 445

SABIC 2010.SE Hold 101 0.2 10.2 95.00 7.9 7.4 15.5 15.0 1.7 4.0 80634

Sibanye-Stillwater SGLJ.J Hold 18.77 -1.2 -25.9 20.00 6.0 3.2 na 8.6 1.7 1.6 2508

Real Estate

Aldar Properties ALDR.AD Buy 2.20 0.0 -16.4 3.00 5.8 6.3 7.2 7.6 0.7 5.0 4709

Attacq ATTJ.J Buy 18.17 -0.1 7.9 22.00 28.5 25.8 20.5 17.1 0.9 0.0 934

Damac Properties DAMAC.DU Hold 3.45 0.0 50.0 3.20 4.7 4.4 6.2 6.0 1.4 7.2 5683

Dar Al Arkan 4300.SE Hold 9.55 3.9 55.3 6.00 23.4 21.5 30.3 24.8 0.6 0.0 2750

Emaar Economic City 4220.SE Hold 13.08 0.2 -23.7 12.10 60.6 44.9 71.4 44.0 1.3 0.0 2965

Emaar Malls EMAA.DU Hold 2.18 0.0 -17.4 2.70 12.1 10.9 14.2 12.8 1.7 4.6 7724

Emaar Properties EMAR.DU Buy 7.64 0.0 9.4 10.60 7.2 6.6 9.5 8.6 1.2 2.7 14893

Emira Property Fund EMIJ.J Hold 13.24 -0.1 -7.1 14.50 12.2 12.0 14.1 10.4 0.7 0.0 483

Emlak REIT EKGYO.IS Hold 2.46 3.2 -26.3 3.19 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.6 0.7 0.0 2373

Equites EQUJ.J Buy 20.00 -2.1 26.9 21.50 17.6 12.0 7.8 17.0 1.4 0.0 434

Fortress FFBJ.J Hold 42.15 0.1 30.7 42.00 21.0 19.9 10.5 18.0 1.0 0.0 3222

Fortress Income Fund Ltd FFAJ.J Hold 17.25 -0.1 4.4 18.80 12.3 12.0 5.4 8.1 0.4 0.0 1443

Growthpoint GRTJ.J Hold 25.00 0.1 -3.2 27.00 13.2 12.4 17.0 12.7 0.8 0.0 5230

Hyprop HYPJ.J Buy 107 0.7 -8.3 125.00 17.0 17.3 18.9 14.7 1.1 0.0 1941

Octodec Investments Ltd OCTJ.J Sell 17.05 -3.2 -22.5 18.00 10.1 9.3 8.6 7.7 0.6 0.0 326

Palm Hills Developments PHDC.CA Hold 4.08 0.0 34.6 3.80 10.0 7.3 13.2 8.3 1.4 0.0 532

Redefine Properties Ltd RDFJ.J Hold 10.12 -0.3 -9.3 11.50 16.3 14.6 13.0 12.0 1.0 0.0 3740

Resilient Property Income Fund Ltd RESJ.J Hold 146 0.9 28.2 140.00 36.0 34.6 17.2 23.3 1.8 0.0 4293

SA Corporate Real Estate Fund SACJ.J Hold 4.71 0.5 -16.0 5.80 12.2 12.3 10.5 9.9 0.8 0.0 799

SODIC OCDI.CA Hold 19.50 0.0 34.0 17.20 9.0 6.1 9.3 7.8 1.5 0.0 373

TMG Holding TMGH.CA Buy 9.90 0.0 11.5 11.00 13.5 12.8 14.5 13.4 0.7 1.5 1153

Vukile Property Fund Ltd VKEJ.J Hold 20.35 1.6 9.2 20.00 14.0 12.1 11.1 12.8 1.1 0.0 1024

Telecommunication Services

Digi Communications DIGI.BX Hold 35.00 0.5 -10.5 41.00 4.9 4.8 19.2 13.7 8.5 0.0 898

Etisalat ETEL.AD Sell 16.40 0.0 -12.8 15.10 5.7 5.5 13.8 13.4 3.1 5.6 38831

MegaFon MFONq.L Buy 9.65 -2.0 2.1 15.50 4.6 4.4 13.4 11.1 2.4 6.2 5372

Mobily 7020.SE Sell 13.34 -0.3 -44.4 12.00 5.3 5.0 na na 0.7 0.0 2739

MTN Group MTNJ.J Buy 129 0.6 2.7 136.00 6.7 6.2 28.5 19.9 2.1 5.4 16990

MTS MBT.N Buy 10.37 -1.1 13.8 12.80 5.1 4.8 10.2 10.6 7.9 8.7 10142

Ooredoo Group ORDS.QA Hold 79.90 -0.1 -21.5 107.00 3.8 3.4 12.6 10.7 1.1 5.0 7029Ooredoo Oman ORDS.OM Buy 0.54 -0.7 -18.8 1.15 1.9 na 7.4 na 1.4 9.3 906Saudi Telecom Company 7010.SE Buy 68.80 0.0 -5.1 80.00 5.1 5.0 12.9 13.5 2.2 5.8 36691Telecom Egypt ETEL.CA Buy 13.40 0.0 17.8 16.90 6.2 5.4 7.4 6.3 0.7 7.5 1291Telkom SA Ltd TKGJ.J Hold 49.56 2.1 -32.8 49.00 2.8 3.3 9.2 9.1 0.9 8.5 1863Turk Telekom TTKOM.IS Hold 5.69 8.1 -3.5 6.00 4.9 4.3 12.3 8.5 4.0 0.0 5056Turkcell TCELL.IS Buy 15.21 4.4 39.7 17.10 6.8 5.9 12.6 10.3 2.3 9.3 8469Vodacom VODJ.J Buy 145 -0.4 -4.6 163.00 7.5 7.3 17.3 16.4 8.9 5.5 15582

UtilitiesCEZ CEZP.PR Buy 491 1.2 36.2 500.00 7.8 7.6 13.4 18.2 1.0 6.7 12240Qatar Electricity & Water QEWC.QA Hold 162 -4.7 -28.7 215.00 12.2 11.7 12.0 10.8 2.0 4.6 4894

EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA for Banks has been replaced by ROE The Daily and YTD % Price changes refer to the change in US dollar value of the stock Source: Deutsche Bank, Companies

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Latam valuation 11/30/17 Daily YTD Price P/BV (x) Div Yld % (US$ m)Company Ticker Rating Price Change % Change % Target 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E Mkt Cap

Banks

Banco de Chile BCH.N Hold 82.96 -0.4 17.8 87.00 19.4 19.3 16.1 15.0 2.9 3.9 13750

Banco do Brasil BBAS3.SA Buy 29.93 -5.4 6.1 41.00 11.7 12.4 7.1 6.1 0.9 3.5 26242

Bancolombia CIB.N Hold 38.61 -0.6 5.3 45.00 10.7 12.0 11.9 9.9 1.2 3.2 9284

Banorte GFNORTEO.MX Buy 109 -1.3 18.4 143.00 16.6 17.6 13.1 11.3 2.5 4.8 16262

Bladex BLX.N Hold 29.36 0.3 -0.3 25.00 8.5 9.3 13.1 11.6 1.1 5.3 1154

Bradesco BBD.N Hold 9.79 -2.9 12.4 8.00 15.6 18.0 9.9 9.0 1.7 3.3 59573

Credicorp BAP.N Buy 211 -1.2 36.9 242.00 19.4 18.9 14.6 12.7 2.5 4.9 16832

Itau Unibanco ITUB.N Hold 12.55 -3.2 22.1 11.00 20.0 21.0 11.1 9.8 2.1 5.4 81630

Santander Brasil BSBR.N Hold 8.75 -3.1 -1.6 8.00 12.4 16.2 12.6 11.1 1.9 5.9 32806

Santander Chile BSAC.N Hold 27.47 -2.0 25.6 29.00 18.7 18.2 16.2 15.5 2.7 3.9 12942

Santander Mexico BSMX.N Hold 8.30 0.0 15.4 10.00 15.7 15.6 11.8 10.9 1.8 4.2 11251

Consumer Discretionary

Arezzo&Co ARZZ3.SA Hold 46.21 -6.1 83.6 32.00 18.5 16.2 29.9 26.8 6.0 3.3 1256

B2W BTOW3.SA Hold 17.19 -3.8 67.8 16.50 13.6 11.1 na na 2.0 0.0 2423

Cia Hering HGTX3.SA Hold 25.39 -3.4 67.2 23.00 15.2 13.2 17.4 16.9 3.2 5.3 1253

Falabella FAL.SN Hold 5,423 -0.9 4.9 7,215.00 16.7 15.8 25.8 23.3 2.9 1.5 20372

Liverpool LIVEPOLC1.MX Buy 126 -2.6 -6.3 187.50 10.2 8.8 18.2 14.1 2.0 0.6 9100

Lojas Americanas LAME4.SA Hold 14.83 -5.2 -13.2 18.80 10.7 9.3 71.9 34.5 10.7 0.1 6514

Lojas Renner LREN3.SA Hold 33.93 -2.3 45.8 34.00 16.2 13.6 32.7 27.3 7.8 1.0 7383

Megacable MEGACPO.MX Buy 78.73 -0.4 25.7 94.00 9.2 8.4 17.1 15.2 2.8 2.1 3629

Multiplus MPLU3.SA Buy 34.86 -4.9 2.7 54.00 6.7 5.8 10.5 10.3 19.5 9.5 1731

Smiles Fidelidade SA SMLS3.SA Buy 75.00 -6.2 -19.0 97.00 12.0 10.9 11.7 13.0 10.8 8.1 2842

Consumer Staples

Almacenes Exito IMI.CN Buy 16,380 -0.1 9.6 23,400.00 6.8 6.3 33.8 20.9 0.8 1.3 2436

AmBev ABEV.N Hold 6.30 0.0 28.3 6.15 16.7 14.3 29.3 24.7 8.2 3.9 98934

Arca Continental AC.MX Hold 128 0.8 30.9 106.00 10.5 8.0 23.4 18.2 3.2 1.9 12077

BRF S.A. BRFS.N Hold 11.79 -3.0 -20.1 15.50 8.8 7.1 28.3 15.2 2.2 0.4 9420

CBD-GPA PCAR4.SA Buy 70.00 -2.9 27.3 114.00 7.8 7.1 33.9 25.4 2.3 0.4 5682

CCU CCU.N Hold 25.48 -2.0 21.4 25.00 10.2 9.3 25.1 21.7 2.6 2.3 4707

Cencosud CEN.SN Hold 1,586 0.4 -13.2 2,000.00 8.3 7.7 18.1 17.4 1.1 1.9 6958

Chedraui CHDRAUIB.MX Hold 36.28 -1.9 8.3 40.00 6.5 5.5 17.8 15.6 1.2 0.0 1876

Coca-Cola Femsa KOF.N Hold 68.46 -0.6 7.7 80.00 8.7 7.7 18.5 16.9 2.3 2.6 14382

Concha y Toro VCO.N Buy 34.05 -2.2 5.1 38.00 11.5 9.3 19.0 14.3 1.6 2.3 1272

Embotelladora Andina AKOb.N Buy 26.58 1.5 18.3 32.00 9.8 8.5 24.8 20.9 3.2 2.5 4193

Femsa FMX.N Buy 89.97 -0.5 18.1 114.00 9.3 7.7 22.5 19.5 2.6 1.5 32193

Gruma GRUMAB.MX Buy 231 -2.1 -2.7 310.00 8.5 7.7 14.6 13.4 2.4 1.2 5363

Grupo Bimbo BIMBOA.MX Buy 43.45 -2.3 2.4 58.00 9.6 7.9 27.5 20.0 3.2 0.7 10962

Kimberly-Clark de Mexico KIMBERA.MX Buy 33.32 -1.3 -1.1 41.00 13.6 12.1 24.1 20.4 15.5 4.7 5516

Minerva BEEF3.SA Buy 10.85 -1.6 -11.1 24.25 6.3 5.1 20.7 33.5 6.0 6.0 750

Natura NATU3.SA Hold 29.16 -3.8 26.1 26.50 10.1 8.9 32.7 26.1 9.4 0.9 3848

Soriana SORIANAB.MX Hold 40.52 1.0 -0.2 44.00 7.4 6.5 15.9 13.8 1.2 0.0 3912

Wal-Mart de Mexico WALMEX.MX Hold 43.92 -4.8 31.4 47.20 13.5 12.3 24.8 22.6 5.0 5.6 41137

Diversified Financials

B3 BVMF3.SA Buy 23.24 -2.6 40.2 28.00 17.9 15.1 25.5 20.8 0.7 1.3 14499

Bolsa Mexicana BOLSAA.MX Buy 31.97 -0.6 29.8 45.00 10.7 9.9 16.4 15.6 na 3.9 1017

Credito Real CREAL.MX Buy 27.32 -0.8 10.7 36.00 1.2 1.2 6.1 5.3 1.1 0.9 575

Gentera GENTERA.MX Hold 17.10 -3.3 -43.2 20.00 1.7 1.7 9.2 11.6 1.7 4.5 1489

Energy

Petrobras PETR4.SA Hold 15.38 -1.2 3.0 20.80 5.2 4.4 19.1 8.3 0.7 0.2 61388

Petrobras PETR3.SA Hold 15.95 -1.3 -6.3 20.80 6.2 5.3 19.7 8.5 1.1 0.1 91003

Industrials

Avianca Holdings S.A. AVH.N Buy 7.81 0.0 -19.0 11.00 16.8 16.0 5.9 5.7 5.9 2.5 7820

Azul S.A. AZUL.N Buy 26.06 0.0 21.2 31.00 25.2 20.7 78.4 57.4 11.8 0.0 8221

Copa Holdings, S.A. CPA.N Buy 134 -0.6 47.7 142.00 10.3 9.0 15.6 13.0 3.0 1.4 5692

Embraer ERJ.N Hold 19.14 -0.7 0.3 22.00 5.6 6.4 10.9 16.1 0.8 3.4 3541

GOL S.A. GOL.N Buy 8.53 -5.7 -37.4 11.00 10.0 9.0 76.8 92.6 na 0.2 2964

Grupo Aeromexico AEROMEX.MX Hold 31.78 -2.1 -9.9 35.00 8.2 5.6 na 9.2 1.6 0.0 1199

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. LTM.N Buy 12.65 -4.7 55.1 17.00 9.5 8.0 38.9 16.1 2.5 0.9 7671

Volaris VLRS.N Hold 9.28 0.0 -38.3 12.00 366.8 55.1 na 100.8 18.0 0.0 9390

Information Technology

Cielo CIEL3.SA Hold 22.90 -1.9 -18.3 26.00 12.8 12.0 15.9 15.2 4.0 1.0 19037

Insurance

Porto Seguro PSSA3.SA Buy 35.83 -4.8 32.6 38.00 na na 11.9 10.7 1.7 3.4 3543

Materials

Antofagasta PLC ANTO.L Sell 910 -0.5 47.9 800.00 6.6 6.6 17.6 18.2 1.7 3.3 12125

Cemex CX.N Buy 7.59 -2.4 -5.5 9.60 8.0 7.0 20.5 13.6 1.3 0.0 10886

Vale VALE.N Buy 10.70 -2.8 40.4 12.00 5.3 4.9 9.1 9.1 1.2 2.6 55369

Telecommunication Services

America Movil AMX.N Buy 17.10 -2.8 36.0 21.00 5.8 5.4 19.2 17.4 4.0 0.9 56348

Telefonica Brasil VIV.N Buy 14.56 -1.5 13.3 21.00 6.1 5.7 18.0 14.7 1.1 5.6 24587

TIM Participacoes TSU.N Buy 17.94 -4.1 53.0 22.00 4.9 4.4 26.8 19.2 1.5 0.5 8684

EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA for Banks has been replaced by ROE The Daily and YTD % Price changes refer to the change in US dollar value of the stock Source: Deutsche Bank, Companies

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Appendix1

Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr. Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com/equities under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Pascal Moura/Mairead Smith

Equity rating key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships

Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that investors buy the stock.

Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock

Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell.

Newly issued research recommendations and target prices supersede previously published research.

46 % 46 %

8 %37 % 32 %

18 %0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Buy Hold Sell

Global Universe

Companies Covered Cos. w/ Banking Relationship

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Additional Information

The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively "Deutsche Bank"). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to third-party websites in this report are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for the accuracy or security controls of those websites. If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in this report, or is included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Bank may act as principal for its own account or as agent for another person. Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for its own account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others within Deutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those taken in this research report. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of communication may differ from recommendations contained in others, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, perspectives or otherwise. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliates may also be holding debt or equity securities of the issuers it writes on. Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliates, which includes investment banking, trading and principal trading revenues. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice. Deutsche Bank provides liquidity for buyers and sellers of securities issued by the companies it covers. Deutsche Bank research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas that may be inconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing longer-term ratings. Trade ideas for equities can be found at the SOLAR link at http://gm.db.com. A SOLAR idea represents a high-conviction belief by an analyst that a stock will outperform or underperform the market and/or a specified sector over a time frame of no less than two weeks and no more than six months. In addition to SOLAR ideas, analysts may occasionally discuss with our clients, and with Deutsche Bank salespersons and traders, trading strategies or ideas that reference catalysts or events that may have a near-term or medium-term impact on the market price of the securities discussed in this report, which impact may be directionally counter to the analysts' current 12-month view of total return or investment return as described herein. Deutsche Bank has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof if an opinion, forecast or estimate changes or becomes inaccurate. Coverage and the frequency of changes in market conditions and in both general and company-specific economic prospects make it difficult to update research at defined intervals. Updates are at the sole

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discretion of the coverage analyst or of the Research Department Management, and the majority of reports are published at irregular intervals. This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. It is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. Target prices are inherently imprecise and a product of the analyst’s judgment. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, and investors must make their own informed investment decisions. Prices and availability of financial instruments are subject to change without notice, and investment transactions can lead to losses as a result of price fluctuations and other factors. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investor's currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Performance calculations exclude transaction costs, unless otherwise indicated. Unless otherwise indicated, prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is also sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other parties. The Deutsche Bank Research Department is independent of other business divisions of the Bank. Details regarding organizational arrangements and information barriers we have established to prevent and avoid conflicts of interest with respect to our research are available on our website under Disclaimer, found on the Legal tab. Macroeconomic fluctuations often account for most of the risks associated with exposures to instruments that promise to pay fixed or variable interest rates. For an investor who is long fixed-rate instruments (thus receiving these cash flows), increases in interest rates naturally lift the discount factors applied to the expected cash flows and thus cause a loss. The longer the maturity of a certain cash flow and the higher the move in the discount factor, the higher will be the loss. Upside surprises in inflation, fiscal funding needs, and FX depreciation rates are among the most common adverse macroeconomic shocks to receivers. But counterparty exposure, issuer creditworthiness, client segmentation, regulation (including changes in assets holding limits for different types of investors), changes in tax policies, currency convertibility (which may constrain currency conversion, repatriation of profits and/or liquidation of positions), and settlement issues related to local clearing houses are also important risk factors. The sensitivity of fixed-income instruments to macroeconomic shocks may be mitigated by indexing the contracted cash flows to inflation, to FX depreciation, or to specified interest rates – these are common in emerging markets. The index fixings may – by construction – lag or mis-measure the actual move in the underlying variables they are intended to track. The choice of the proper fixing (or metric) is particularly important in swaps markets, where floating coupon rates (i.e., coupons indexed to a typically short-dated interest rate reference index) are exchanged for fixed coupons. Funding in a currency that differs from the currency in which coupons are denominated carries FX risk. Options on swaps (swaptions) the risks typical to options in addition to the risks related to rates movements. Derivative transactions involve numerous risks including market, counterparty default and illiquidity risk. The appropriateness of these products for use by investors depends on the investors' own circumstances, including their tax

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position, their regulatory environment and the nature of their other assets and liabilities; as such, investors should take expert legal and financial advice before entering into any transaction similar to or inspired by the contents of this publication. The risk of loss in futures trading and options, foreign or domestic, can be substantial. As a result of the high degree of leverage obtainable in futures and options trading, losses may be incurred that are greater than the amount of funds initially deposited – up to theoretically unlimited losses. Trading in options involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, investors must review the "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options”, at http://www.optionsclearing.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp. If you are unable to access the website, please contact your Deutsche Bank representative for a copy of this important document. Participants in foreign exchange transactions may incur risks arising from several factors, including: (i) exchange rates can be volatile and are subject to large fluctuations; (ii) the value of currencies may be affected by numerous market factors, including world and national economic, political and regulatory events, events in equity and debt markets and changes in interest rates; and (iii) currencies may be subject to devaluation or government-imposed exchange controls, which could affect the value of the currency. Investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are affected by the currency of an underlying security, effectively assume currency risk. Deutsche Bank is not acting as a financial adviser, consultant or fiduciary to you or any of your agents with respect to any information provided in this report. Deutsche Bank does not provide investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, and is not acting as an impartial adviser. Information contained herein is being provided on the basis that the recipient will make an independent assessment of the merits of any investment decision, and is not meant for retirement accounts or for any specific person or account type. The information we provide is directed only to persons we believe to be financially sophisticated, who are capable of evaluating investment risks independently, both in general and with regard to particular transactions and investment strategies, and who understand that Deutsche Bank has financial interests in the offering of its products and services. If this is not the case, or if you or your agent are an IRA or other retail investor receiving this directly from us, we ask that you inform us immediately. Unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the Deutsche Bank entity in the investor's home jurisdiction. Aside from within this report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com on each company’s research page and under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. United States: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank Securities Incorporated, a member of FINRA, NFA and SIPC. Analysts located outside of the United States are employed by non-US affiliates that are not subject to FINRA regulations, including those regarding contacts with issuer companies. Germany: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank AG, a joint stock corporation with limited liability incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany with its principal office in Frankfurt am Main. Deutsche Bank AG is authorized under German Banking Law and is subject to supervision by the

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European Central Bank and by BaFin, Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority. United Kingdom: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank AG acting through its London Branch at Winchester House, 1 Great Winchester Street, London EC2N 2DB. Deutsche Bank AG in the United Kingdom is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority and Financial Conduct Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation are available on request. Hong Kong: Distributed by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch or Deutsche Securities Asia Limited. India: Prepared by Deutsche Equities India Private Limited (DEIPL) having CIN: U65990MH2002PTC137431 and registered office at 14th Floor, The Capital, C-70, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex Mumbai (India) 400051. Tel: + 91 22 7180 4444. It is registered by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) as a Stock broker bearing registration nos.: NSE (Capital Market Segment) - INB231196834, NSE (F&O Segment) INF231196834, NSE (Currency Derivatives Segment) INE231196834, BSE (Capital Market Segment) INB011196830; Merchant Banker bearing SEBI Registration no.: INM000010833 and Research Analyst bearing SEBI Registration no.: INH000001741. DEIPL may have received administrative warnings from the SEBI for breaches of Indian regulations. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) may have debt holdings or positions in the subject company. With regard to information on associates, please refer to the “Shareholdings” section in the Annual Report at: https://www.db.com/ir/en/annual-reports.htm. Japan: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Securities Inc.(DSI). Registration number - Registered as a financial instruments dealer by the Head of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No. 117. Member of associations: JSDA, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association and The Financial Futures Association of Japan. Commissions and risks involved in stock transactions - for stock transactions, we charge stock commissions and consumption tax by multiplying the transaction amount by the commission rate agreed with each customer. Stock transactions can lead to losses as a result of share price fluctuations and other factors. Transactions in foreign stocks can lead to additional losses stemming from foreign exchange fluctuations. We may also charge commissions and fees for certain categories of investment advice, products and services. Recommended investment strategies, products and services carry the risk of losses to principal and other losses as a result of changes in market and/or economic trends, and/or fluctuations in market value. Before deciding on the purchase of financial products and/or services, customers should carefully read the relevant disclosures, prospectuses and other documentation. "Moody's", "Standard & Poor's", and "Fitch" mentioned in this report are not registered credit rating agencies in Japan unless Japan or "Nippon" is specifically designated in the name of the entity. Reports on Japanese listed companies not written by analysts of DSI are written by Deutsche Bank Group's analysts with the coverage companies specified by DSI. Some of the foreign securities stated on this report are not disclosed according to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan. Target prices set by Deutsche Bank's equity analysts are based on a 12-month forecast period..

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Korea: Distributed by Deutsche Securities Korea Co. South Africa: Deutsche Bank AG Johannesburg is incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany (Branch Register Number in South Africa: 1998/003298/10). Singapore: This report is issued by Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch or Deutsche Securities Asia Limited, Singapore Branch (One Raffles Quay #18-00 South Tower Singapore 048583, +65 6423 8001), which may be contacted in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. Where this report is issued or promulgated by Deutsche Bank in Singapore to a person who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined in the applicable Singapore laws and regulations), they accept legal responsibility to such person for its contents. Taiwan: Information on securities/investments that trade in Taiwan is for your reference only. Readers should independently evaluate investment risks and are solely responsible for their investment decisions. Deutsche Bank research may not be distributed to the Taiwan public media or quoted or used by the Taiwan public media without written consent. Information on securities/instruments that do not trade in Taiwan is for informational purposes only and is not to be construed as a recommendation to trade in such securities/instruments. Deutsche Securities Asia Limited, Taipei Branch may not execute transactions for clients in these securities/instruments. Qatar: Deutsche Bank AG in the Qatar Financial Centre (registered no. 00032) is regulated by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority. Deutsche Bank AG - QFC Branch may undertake only the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing QFCRA license. Its principal place of business in the QFC: Qatar Financial Centre, Tower, West Bay, Level 5, PO Box 14928, Doha, Qatar. This information has been distributed by Deutsche Bank AG. Related financial products or services are only available only to Business Customers, as defined by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority. Russia: The information, interpretation and opinions submitted herein are not in the context of, and do not constitute, any appraisal or evaluation activity requiring a license in the Russian Federation. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia LLC Company (registered no. 07073-37) is regulated by the Capital Market Authority. Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia may undertake only the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing CMA license. Its principal place of business in Saudi Arabia: King Fahad Road, Al Olaya District, P.O. Box 301809, Faisaliah Tower - 17th Floor, 11372 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. United Arab Emirates: Deutsche Bank AG in the Dubai International Financial Centre (registered no. 00045) is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. Deutsche Bank AG - DIFC Branch may undertake only the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing DFSA license. Its principal place of business in the DIFC: Dubai International Financial Centre, The Gate Village, Building 5, PO Box 504902, Dubai, U.A.E. This information has been distributed by Deutsche Bank AG. Related financial products or services are available only to Professional Clients, as defined by the Dubai Financial Services Authority.

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Australia: Retail clients should obtain a copy of a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) relating to any financial product referred to in this report and consider the PDS before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. Please refer to Australia-specific research disclosures and related information at https://australia.db.com/australia/content/research-information.html Australia and New Zealand: This research is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act and New Zealand Financial Advisors Act, respectively. Additional information relative to securities, other financial products or issuers discussed in this report is available upon request. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published without Deutsche Bank's prior written consent. Copyright © 2017 Deutsche Bank AG

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David Folkerts-Landau

Group Chief Economist and Global Head of Research

Raj Hindocha Global Chief Operating Officer

Research

Michael Spencer Head of APAC Research

Global Head of Economics

Steve Pollard Head of Americas Research

Global Head of Equity Research

Anthony Klarman Global Head of Debt Research

Paul Reynolds Head of EMEA

Equity Research

Dave Clark Head of APAC

Equity Research

Pam Finelli Global Head of

Equity Derivatives Research

Andreas Neubauer Head of Research - Germany

Spyros Mesomeris Global Head of Quantitative

and QIS Research

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