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Deutsche Bank Markets Research
Global
Periodical
CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Date 1 December 2017
Friday,1 December 2017
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/London
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. THE CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (“THE PRC”) (EXCEPT IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE APPLICABLE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OF PRC), EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAU
Pascal Moura
Head of Research
(+971) 4 4283-864 [email protected]
Mairead Smith
Equity Focus
(+44) 20 754-71054 [email protected]
CEEMEA Companies RECOMMENDATION CHANGE SA Retail - 2018 Outlook: time to change to a neutral lane Nampak (Hold, TP ZAR18.50) - FY17 result: R1.4bn of incremental trapped cash in H2-downgrade to Hold
SECTOR UPDATE SA Company Results Diary - 4-8 December 2017 (FY17: SNH; 1H18: AFH)
LATAM Companies SECTOR UPDATE Chilean Banks - October results show weak start to 4Q17
MACRO Brazil Update - We expect 3Q GDP to grow 0.3% QoQ Focus Europe - 2018 Outlook: The return of macro volatility
VALUATION CEEMEA and Latam valuation tables
Stock Performance(US$)–Gainers & Losers (CEEMEA) Top 10 Ticker Price %Chg
Turk Telekom TTKOM TI 1.4 8.1 Mediclinic
MDC LN 7.6 5.5
Vakifbank VAKBN TI 1.5 5.4 Harmony HAR SJ 1.8 5.2 Turkcell TCELL TI 3.9 4.4 Dar Al Arkan ALARKAN AB 2.5 3.9 Pioneer PFG SJ 9.6 3.8 Garanti GARAN TI 2.4 3.7 Emlak REIT EKGYO TI 0.6 3.2 Yapi Kredi Bank YKBNK TI 1.1 3.2 Bottom 10 Ticker Price %Chg Impala Platinum IMP SJ 2.9 -8.3 VTB VTBR LI 1.8 -5.4 Qatar Electricity &
QEWS QD 44.5 -4.7
Lenta LNTA LI 5.8 -3.4 Naspers NPN SJ 269.7 -3.3 Octodec Investments
OCT SJ 1.2 -3.2
Transneft TRNFP RX 3042.9 -3.1 Industries Qatar IQCD QD 24.4 -3.0 Dino DNP PW 20.7 -2.9 Surgutneftegaz SNGSP RX 0.5 -2.8
Stock Performance(US$)–Gainers & Losers (LATAM) Top 10 Ticker Price %Chg
MercadoLibre MELI US 275.1 2.8 Embotelladora
AKO/B UN 26.6 1.5
Soriana SORIANAB
2.2 1.0 Arca Continental AC* MM 6.8 0.8 Cencosud CENCOSUD CI 2.4 0.4 Bladex BLX UN 29.4 0.3 Almacenes Exito EXITO CB 5.4 -0.1 Megacable MEGACPO
4.2 -0.4
Banco de Chile BCH US 83.0 -0.4 Femsa FMX UN 90.0 -0.5 Bottom 10 Ticker Price %Chg Smiles Fidelidade SA SMLS3 BS 22.9 -6.2 Arezzo&Co ARZZ3 BS 14.1 -6.1 GOL S.A. GOL US 8.5 -5.7 Banco do Brasil BBAS3 BS 9.2 -5.4 Lojas Americanas LAME4 BZ 4.5 -5.2 Multiplus MPLU3 BZ 10.7 -4.9 Porto Seguro PSSA3 BZ 11.0 -4.8 Wal-Mart de Mexico WALMEX*
2.4 -4.8
LATAM Airlines
LTM US 12.7 -4.7 Grupo Mexico GMEXICOB
3.1 -4.6
Source::Bloomberg Finance LP
Distributed on: 01/12/2017 04:58:17 GMT
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Russia / CIS LatamIvan Kachkovski Financials +44 207 5411735 Ryan Todd Oil & Gas +1 212 250 8342Pavel Kushnir Oil & Gas +971 4 361 1732 Xavier Marchand Building materials +44 207 545 1400Masha Kahn TMT +1 212 250 9619 Chris Terry Metals & Mining +1 212 250 5434Marc Hammoud Healthcare +971 4 4283910 Tito Labarta Financials/Banks +1 212 250 5944Grant Sporre Commodities +44 207 545 8170 Joana Barros-Magalhaes Financials/Banks +1 212 250 1002Aleksandar Stojanovski Transport +971 4 361 1786 Michael Linenberg Airline +1 212 250 9254Lloyd Walmsley Internet +1 212 250-7063
Marcel Moraes Retail +1 904 271 2470Elina Ribakova Economist +44 207 547 1340 Masha Kahn TMT +1 212 250 9619
Catherine O' Brien Loyalty Programs +1 212 250 8949South Africa Jose Yordan Food&Beverage/Retailing +1 212 250 5528Pavel Kushnir Oil & Gas +971 4 361 1732 Myles Walton Aerospace Defense +1 212 250 5528Caron Bramwell Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7069Ryan Eichstadt Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7249Sean Holmes Retail, Real Estate, Food Producer +27 11 775 7292 Drausio Giacomelli Chief Economist +1 212 250 7355Letlotlo Lenake Healthcare +27 11 775 7299 Sebastian Brown Senior Economist Mexico & Chile +1 212 250 8191John Kim TMT +27 11 775 7013 Cesar Arias Senior Economist Andean countries +1 212 250-0664Patrick Mann Metals & Mining +27 11 775 7268 Jose Carlos de Faria Senior Economist Brazil +55 11 2113 5185Mathias Pfeifenberger Paper +43(1)53181-153 Hongtao Jiang Head of EM Sovereign Credit +1 212 250-2524Stefan Swanepoel Banks/Financials +27 11 775 7369 Jed Evans Head of EM Analytics +1 212 250-8605Larissa van-Deventer Insurance/Financials +27 11 775 7049 Guilherme Marone EM Derivative and Latam Strategist +1 212 250-8640Munira Kharva Industrial +27 11 775 7433 Eduardo Vieira Head of EM Corporates +1 212 250-7568
Sebastian Brown Latam FX Strategist +1 212 250 8191Danelee Masia Economist +27 11 775 7267
GreeceJames Brand Utility +44 207 5474705
Turkey Robert Grindle Telecommunication +44 207 54548490Kazim Andac Banks, Strategy +90 212 3190315 Ivan Kachkovski Banks +44 207 5411735Athmane Benzerroug Construction, RE +90 212 3190324 Tomasz Krukowski O&G +48 22 579 8732Marc Hammoud Telco +971 4 4283910 Priyal Mulji Construction +44 207 5472094
Kubilay Ozturk Economist +44 207 5458774 George Saravelos FX Strategist +44 207 5479118
CE3 Middle EastJames Brand Utility +44 207 5474705 Ryan Ayache Banks +971 4 428 3261Kazim Andac Banks, Strategy +90 212 3190315 Athmane Benzerroug Construction, Infrastructure, Utilities +971 4 428 3938Ivan Kachkovski Financials +44 207 5411735 Marc Hammoud Telco, Healthcare +971 4 4283910Tomasz Krukowski Consumer, O&G, Industrials +48 22 579 8732 Aleksandar Stojanovski Chemicals/Consumer/Transport/Strategist +971 4 361 1786Carlos Galindo Economist +44 207 547 6269 Elina Ribakova Economist +44 207 547 1340Gautam Kalani Economist +44 207 545 7066 Alizerra Kharazi MENA +44 207 5450083
Emerging EMEA/Latam ResearchHead of Company Research Pascal Moura +971 44283864
Source: Deutsche Bank
1 December 2017
CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 3
ASIAN MARKET TOP STORIES Chinese autos – Looking for another Geely in 2018 (Vincent Ha) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/759-A221/209942066/19c06643-5979-4381-a1ce-28bc0db3cb7b_604.pdf BYD – Losing its charge; downgrading H shares to Hold (Vincent Ha). http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/756-740A/207835668/5fa115ac-a3b9-46cc-8628-75527cc6123b_604.pdf
RECOMMENDATION CHANGES Japan Telecoms – Gate to spectrum heaven closes - downgrading sector (Peter Milliken) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/537-5754/210166970/0900b8c08de6e86f.pdf
ESTIMATES AND TARGET PRICE CHANGES Aristocrat Leisure (ALL.AX, Buy) – FY17 result slightly above market; Big Fish acquisition US$990m (Mark Wilson) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/223-B76B/206807917/0900b8c08de5c752.pdf Gentrack (GTK.NZ, Buy) – New markets, new revenue model, new and improved outlook (Joshua Dale) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/213-CB7E/207235222/0900b8c08de2ab81.pdf Global Memory – Net capacity adds drive supply, but not gross adds (Seung Hoon Han) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/769-381B/203636928/0900b8c08de2f089.pdf
MACRO/STRATEGY DBDaily – US inflation picking up, euro area inflation disappoints, China's PMIs firm … (Ken Crompton) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/9256-4B16/211499255/DB_DbDailyAPAC_2017-11-30_fdb65854-d544-11e7-94ad-98a0d38f7350_604.pdf Dollar Bloc Weekly – 30 November 2017. (Adam Boyton) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/3099-DFD2/205054865/DB_DollarBlocWkly_2017-11-30_90b9571c-d4cf-11e7-94ad-98a0d38f7350_604.pdf Asia Credit Monthly – Chart book 2017 + Picks & Pans (Harsh Agarwal) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/6833-7E67/204963598/DB_AsiaCreditWkly_2017-11-30_0900b8c08dbc1c06.pdf China macro – risks to watch in the next 6 months, Parti IV - presentation slides (Zhiwei Zhang) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/6670-5D43/206743826/dbbfb576-d5ab-11e7-94ad-98a0d38f7350_604.pdf Data Flash – Japan: DB Nowcast Index (Kentaro Koyama) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/670-506B/205765803/2eb8f678-d56d-11e7-94ad-98a0d38f7350_604.pdf Data Flash – Japan: October industrial production (Mikihiro Matsuoka) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/732-124F/205026978/DB_DataFlash_2017-11-30_0900b8c08de42652.pdf FX Daily – The EUR still has the hedging/under allocation 'tinder' (Alan Ruskin) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/3694-1432/204350637/DB_FXDaily_2017-11-30_37d83e89-e18e-4f60-9754-123c1f1717a0_604.pdf Data Flash (Australia) – Q3 private sector CAPEX, October building approvals (Phil Odonaghoe) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/906-1D55/204703489/48a38ff3-ae87-4b9a-821a-b8cea7fa5cad_604.pdf Alert – India: Growth revives modestly in July-Sep; RBI to keep rates steady (Kaushik Das) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/13308-B4F9/208309007/36b575bf-f06c-46ba-a671-5bb6b6f47df0_604.pdf Fed Notes – What Goodfriend could mean for the Fed (Matthew Luzzetti) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/8182-8AF0/208159179/DB_FedNotes_2017-11-30_6021ad2e-c36b-47e4-8245-02797251396b_604.pdf Focus Europe – 2018 Outlook: The return of macro volatility (Mark Wall) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/9698-C716/208774542/DB_FocusEurope_2017-11-30_d11716a5-f216-450f-9357-47e2cb14ab81_604.pdf
HONG KONG / CHINA Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK, Buy) – Progress on key pipeline drugs (Jack Hu) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/2483-E4F4/206186878/f37b5df3-9bd1-4410-86e2-3cbb1c621ff4_604.pdf Hong Kong Banks – Oct'17 stats: Deposit growth still lags behind, cost of funds on the rise… (Franco Lam) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/650-9F11/208573328/0900b8c08dcd4acf.pdf
JAPAN Bank sector – Are negative interest rates expansionary? Implications for Japan (Yoshinobu Yamada) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/522-F304/205700521/0900b8c08de5b9ad.pdf
1 December 2017
CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG/London
JAPAN Bank sector – Reversal rate: Preparing the ground for fine-tuning monetary policy (Yoshinobu Yamada) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/523-D712/205368296/0900b8c08de69965.pdf Japan Autos – October production: Regional diversity at Toyota helping (Kurt Sanger) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/751-CFA0/206940402/0900b8c08de6f3e1.pdf Rinnai (5947.T, Hold) – Adjusting earnings model to factor in consumption tax hike (Yoji Otani) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/232-6D8F/205891366/0900b8c08de5a500.pdf
AUSTRALIA Aristocrat Leisure (ALL.AX, Buy) – FY17 result first impressions (Mark Wilson) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/223-250D/205172090/0900b8c08de5dc9b.pdf Australian Banking Sector – Royal Commission - lesser of two negatives? (Anthony Hoo) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/643-07FA/206238995/0900b8c08de66cf2.pdf Australian Banks – Royal commission unlikely to materially impact banks’ credit profiles (Gus Medeiros) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/791-5D72/206159834/959ee06b-4aaf-45df-93db-20a083d52044_604.pdf AWE Ltd (AWE.AX, Hold) – AWE receives indicative takeover proposal by CERCG at $0.71/sh (John Hirjee) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/948-46CD/204578549/0900b8c08de668f8.pdf Monthly Banking Volumes – Housing credit growth remained stable; business credit growth moderated (Anthony Hoo) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/639-755A/207063531/59323961-d8fb-4d1c-914f-0a63d7b18a79_604.pdf Turners Automotive (TRA.NZ, Buy) – Growth roadmap on track (Mohandeep Singh) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/220-EE5B/204781108/0900b8c08de53a97.pdf
KOREA/TAIWAN Innocean Worldwide (214320.KS, Buy) – An uncrowded way to play the US corporate tax rate cut theme (Dan Kong) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/675-A4B1/203933870/0900b8c08de59924.pdf Korea Non-life Insuranc – A strong October (Jeehoon Park) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/790-5149/208149768/0900b8c08de688e9.pdf Korea Wireless – Rallying on hope over easing net neutrality? Take caution (Dan Kong) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/877-BEA5/205700687/0900b8c08de68287.pdf
INDIAN India Pharmaceuticals – US monthly sales tracker (Kartik Mehta) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/548-ADAC/208492674/edb37d00-d356-11e7-94ad-98a0d38f7350_604.pdf India Utilities & Renewables – India's massive RE push - what is achievable? (Abhishek Puri) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/546-ACD6/204327924/742eba96-8848-49cd-85a2-4e091ba8c226_604.pdf Larsen and Toubro Ltd. (LART.BO, Buy) – Hyderabad Metro fare hike @16% CAGR v/s 5% assumption (Abhishek Puri) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/501-FB36/204952790/6bc91776-8773-43b5-b424-416801f292f2_604.pdf
ASEAN DiGi (DSOM.KL, Sell) – Digi guides for opex decline on cost management efforts (Srinivas Rao) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/919-F538/206211888/0900b8c08de548a0.pdf Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB.KL, Buy) – Equalization of PSC charges crystallizes our thesis. Maintain Buy (Joshua Lee) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/878-0594/206938506/8f8f2568-1aad-4e71-9c94-9a423f17d9a3_604.pdf Malayan Banking (MBBM.KL, Hold) – 9M17 in line: O&G exposure is still not out of the woods (Joshua Lee) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/521-ED3E/206795676/e9ba0bec-c820-11e7-b4ad-96e0c7d2c070_604.pdf DB Indo Towers – 3Q17 Summary: TBIG and TLKM dominate (Raymond Kosasih) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/673-0705/207368399/2336f336-1878-4938-969a-2474425ce6d7_604.pdf Indo Struktur Weekly Wrap – More clarity on ADHI LRT (Joko Sogie) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/585-BA40/208089391/0900b8c08de6d757.pdf Indonesia Consumer Staples – CCL provides challenges for the emerging local beverage players (Raja Abdalla) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/627-EEE8/207568487/0900b8c08de348e1.pdf Indonesia Consumer Staples – Weekly wrap - Nielsen foresaw timid FMCG sales growth in 10M17 (Raja Abdalla) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/630-9789/207384671/0900b8c08de6e216.pdf
1 December 2017
CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 5
ASEAN Wijaya Karya (WIKA.JK, Hold) – 3Q17 results - behind street expectation (Joko Sogie) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/579-AEE7/206164888/0900b8c08de6d3e0.pdf TMB Bank (TMB.BK, Buy) – Key takeaways from analyst meeting (Peach Patharavanakul) http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/725-73A7/206660698/45c92553-a9f8-4361-a173-7bd4e1f9e9bb_604.pdf
APAC Equities - APAC Research In Focus UPCOMING DB CONFERENCES dbAccess Taiwan Technology Supply Chain Corporate Day - 29 Nov@Taipei, Taiwan dbAccess China Conference - 8-12@Beijing, China
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EPS changes
NAME COUNTRY DB EPS FY1 DB EPS FY2 DB EPS FY3 RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE
From To Change IBES
DB vs IBES
(%) From To Change IBES
DB vs IBES
(%) From To Change IBES
DB vs IBES
(%) From To From To Change
CEEMEA
Pick'n Pay Stores South Africa 2.8 2.9 +4.5 3.3 -13.3 3.5 3.7 +5.5 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.1 -0.6 Hold Hold 62.0 62.0
The Foschini Group Ltd South Africa 10.6 11.0 +3.6 12.6 -12.7 11.6 12.3 +5.5 15.8 -22.3 13.0 13.3 +2.6 Hold Buy 142.0 178.0 +25.4
Woolworths Holdings Ltd South Africa 4.0 4.0 -0.6 6.9 -41.9 4.3 4.2 -3.1 7.3 -42.4 4.9 4.8 -2.4 Hold Hold 61.0 59.0 -3.3
Spar Group Limited South Africa 10.3 10.3 -0.7 12.3 -16.2 11.1 11.0 -0.6 13.5 -18.4 12.0 12.0 -0.6 Hold Hold 172.0 200.0 +16.3
Truworths South Africa 6.9 6.6 -4.7 8.0 -17.9 7.8 7.4 -4.6 9.0 -17.0 8.5 8.0 -5.4 Buy Buy 92.0 93.0 +1.1
Nampak South Africa 2.2 1.9 -16.4 3.6 -49.0 2.4 2.1 -12.9 3.9 -47.2 2.4 Buy Hold 22.5 18.5 -17.8
Clicks Group Ltd South Africa Hold Hold 144.0 154.0 +6.9
Massmart South Africa Hold Buy 119.0 125.0 +5.0
Mr Price South Africa Buy Buy 225.0 242.0 +7.6
Shoprite South Africa Hold Hold 204.0 237.0 +16.2
STAR South Africa 1.0 1.1 +6.3 1.2 1.3 +10.4 Buy Buy 24.0 29.0 +20.8
LATAM
Gentera Mexico 2.4 1.9 -19.6 2.4 -20.3 2.7 1.5 -44.8 3.1 2.0 -37.9 Hold Hold 35.0 20.0 -42.9
ASIA
Geely Auto China 0.9 1.0 +11.5 0.4 154.9 1.1 1.3 +18.0 0.4 274.0 1.3 1.5 +17.5 Hold Hold 18.3 25.9 +41.5
BYD China 1.5 1.5 -0.9 1.2 31.3 2.3 2.0 -11.7 2.7 2.4 -10.8 Buy Hold 80.7 75.9 -5.9
BYD-A China 1.5 1.5 -0.9 2.3 2.0 -11.7 2.7 2.4 -10.8 Hold Hold 68.7 64.3 -6.4
Brilliance China China 1.0 1.0 -4.1 1.7 -40.9 1.4 1.4 -0.3 2.0 -28.9 1.8 1.8 +0.0 Buy Buy 24.5 25.1 +2.7
BAIC Motor China 0.6 0.6 -4.2 1.0 1.0 -2.2 1.3 1.2 -2.4 Buy Buy 10.4 11.5 +10.6
Great Wall Motor China 0.6 0.6 -6.1 5.1 -88.3 0.9 0.9 -5.1 4.6 -80.8 1.0 1.0 -5.0 Sell Sell 7.2 6.9 -4.9
Great Wall Motor-A China 0.6 0.6 -6.1 0.9 0.9 -5.1 1.0 1.0 -5.0 Sell Sell 6.6 6.3 -4.6
Tata Power India Buy Buy 94.0 98.0 +4.3
Titan Company India Buy Buy 900.0 900.0
Source: Bloomberg Finance
1 December 2017
CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 7
Solar Portfolio
30-Nov-17
Companies RIC Buy/Sell Promoted Entry Price Current Price Performance
CE3
X5 RETAIL GROUP PJPq.L Buy 19/10/2017 40.26 37.71 -6.33%
MENA
SAUDI TELECOM COMPANY 7010.SE Buy 01/10/2017 70.50 68.50 -2.84%
TELECOM EGYPT ETEL.CA Buy 01/10/2017 12.95 13.58 4.86%
NMC HEALTH NMC.L Buy 01/10/2017 2,751.00 2,873.00 4.43%
HERFY 6002.SE Buy 23/10/2017 46.74 46.25 -1.04%
GULF INT'L SERVICES GISS.QA Buy 01/10/2017 19.99 15.80 -20.96%
Russia
ROSNEFT ROSN.MM Buy 15/11/2017 303.74 298.95 -1.58%
GAZPROM GAZP.MM Sell 24/11/2017 133.71 133.38 0.25%
SASOL SOLJ.J Sell 27/10/2017 40,874.81 42,526.00 -4.04%
TRANSNEFT TRNF_p.MM Buy 21/11/2017 180,959.09 182,800.00 1.02%
South Africa
BARCLAYS AFRICA GROUP BGAJ.J Buy 01/10/2017 13,900.00 15,450.00 11.15%
HYPROP HYPJ.J Buy 01/10/2017 10,572.00 10,507.00 -0.61%
Turkey
YAPI KREDI BANK YKBNK.IS Buy 01/10/2017 4.32 4.16 -3.70%
VAKIFBANK VAKBN.IS Sell 01/10/2017 6.27 5.84 6.86%
AKBANK AKBNK.IS Buy 01/10/2017 9.40 8.97 -4.57%
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Africa
General Retailers
Industry
SA Retail Date
30 November 2017
Recommendation Change
2018 Outlook: time to change to a neutral lane Not out of the woods, but 2018 could be a bit better (u/g sector to neutral)
Sean Holmes
Research Analyst
(+27) 011 775-7292
Key Changes
Company Target Price Rating
CLSJ.J 144.00 to 154.00(ZAR)
-
MRPJ.J 225.00 to 242.00(ZAR)
-
MSMJ.J 119.00 to 125.00(ZAR)
Hold to Buy
SHPJ.J 204.00 to 237.00(ZAR)
-
SPPJ.J 172.00 to 200.00(ZAR)
-
SRRJ.J 24.00 to 29.00(ZAR)
-
TFGJ.J 142.00 to 178.00(ZAR)
Hold to Buy
TRUJ.J 92.00 to 93.00(ZAR)
-
WHLJ.J 61.00 to 59.00(ZAR)
-
Source: Deutsche Bank
Top picks
Mr Price (MRPJ.J),ZAR212.96 Buy
STAR (SRRJ.J),ZAR25.40 Buy
Truworths (TRUJ.J),ZAR79.95 Buy
Source: Deutsche Bank
Companies Featured
Clicks Group Ltd (CLSJ.J),ZAR173.65 Hold
Mr Price (MRPJ.J),ZAR212.96 Buy
Massmart (MSMJ.J),ZAR111.58 Buy
Pick'n Pay Stores (PIKJ.J),ZAR62.08 Hold
Shoprite (SHPJ.J),ZAR227.00 Hold
Spar Group Limited (SPPJ.J),ZAR192.19 Hold
STAR (SRRJ.J),ZAR25.40 Buy
The Foschini Group Ltd (TFGJ.J),ZAR157.81
Buy
Truworths (TRUJ.J),ZAR79.95 Buy
Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHLJ.J),ZAR58.27
Hold
Source: Deutsche Bank
In this report we provide our outlook for the SA retailers and identify 10 share price drivers for 2018. The drivers include a detailed trend analysis, to help investors form their own view. We conclude that most of the retailers’ earnings have bottomed and that momentum could turn positive in 2018 (but, still foresee a subdued consumer environment over the next 5 years). Considering the potential turn in the retailers' earnings momentum, and unpredictable political/macro situation facing SA, we recommend that investors move to a neutral position (from underweight) on the sector. We upgrade MSM and TFG to a BUY (based on valuation and FY18/19E growth outlook).
Retailers to BUY for 2018: Mr Price, STAR, Truworths, Foschini, Massmart We see the following 3 themes driving outperformance in the sector: Downtrading benefitting value retailers (Mr Price, STAR). We think that a
combination of higher taxes and low real wage growth could constrainconsumers’ spending power – forcing further downtrading.
Pick-up in unsecured credit (Truworths). We anticipate a pick-up in creditdemand from cash-strapped consumers, driving stronger credit sales atTruworths and Foschini Group. In-store credit sales could contribute c50%to Truworths’ FY18E sales and c35% to Foschini Group’s FY18E sales.
Cyclical recoveries and laggards (Massmart and TFG). Should we see astabilization/improvement in some of the key macro trends in 2018, wethink that the retailers’ valuation multiples could revert to mid-cycle andeven above mid-cycle levels. We think that laggards and cyclical gearedretailers could attract investors’ interest, driving an above average re-ratingin these stocks.
Retailers to treat with caution in 2018: Clicks (Hold) and Woolies (Hold) Woolies: Notwithstanding that Woolies’ valuation (15x 12m fwd P/E and
9x 12m fwd EV/EBITDA) now looks more reasonable against the peergroup, we remain cautious that there could be further downside risk to theGroup’s earnings. Our DHEPS estimates for FY18/19E are c12% belowconsensus (Bloomberg Finance LP).
Clicks: The retailer now trades on a 12m fwd P/E of 29x and 17x 12m fwdEV/EBITDA. In our view the valuation multiples are not sustainable atcurrent levels, given the company’s growth prospects.
Valuation and risks See fig 69 for detailed summary of key earnings and valuation changes. Our Nov-18E target prices are based on 13% CoE and FY19/20 DHEPS. Downside risks: higher interest rates, slower credit growth, weaker job growth. Upside risks: stronger ZAR, favourable competitive environment.
1 December 2017 CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 8
30 November 2017
General Industrial
Nampak
Rating
Hold
Valuation & Risks
General IndustrialPrice at 29 Nov 2017 (ZAR) 17.71
Price Target (ZAR) 18.50
52-week range (ZAR) 21.85 - 15.81
RecommendationChange
Sub-Saharan AfricaSouth Africa
Company
Nampak
Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker
NPKJ.J NPK SJ JNB NPKJ
Date30 November 2017
FY17 result: R1.4bn of incrementaltrapped cash in H2-downgrade to HoldBalance sheet risk profile has increased materially - downgrade to HoldThe run-rate of cash build has moved from R300m in H1 to R1.4bn in H2.Whilst our earliest expectation for Angolan cash extraction has always been1H18, we were caught off guard by the aggressive acceleration in Angolancash-build (from a run-rate of R300m in H1 to R800m in H2) and additionaltrapped cash in Zimbabwe (R650m) of which we were previously unaware. Thismaterially alters the risk profile of Nampak's balance sheet, in our view. ExcludingR800m in Nigeria (which we do believe is fully accessible), there is now R2.85bnof inaccessible funds as it stands today. Net debt:EBITDA ex trapped cash iscalculated at 2.9x. Whilst we still subscribe to the Rest of Africa metal can growthnarrative, we would need to see better cash-flow and balance sheet managementin order to turn constructive on the outlook from here.
The operational performance disappointed, particularly in GlassNampak reported demand slack in all divisions outside of Metal cans. The weakdemand was compounded by poor execution in Glass and an onerous contractR82m in UK op's. Glass swung from a R105m profit in FY16 to R16m loss inFY17 due to electrical issues. This was overall a disappointing outcome followingon from what was a solid start in the first half of the year. The guidance is forcontinued muted demand across operations and a break-even position in the UK(vs R60m loss in FY17).
We think Angola is likely to introduce a "NAFEX-like" platform in 2018Angola requires an oil price of $85/barrel to balance its budget (2017 State Budgetuses $45/barrel). The country's fiscal deficit is close to 6%. The rhetoric outof Angola suggests that a multiple currency exchange rate programme like inNigeria will launch in 2018 to help revive the economy. NPK's direct exposureto a devaluing of the Kwanza is currently R234m. There is further exposure withrespect to any new cash build and short-term Kwanza bonds that may matureand fail to be re-hedged (R900m). A report by the IMF in February 2017 cites thebacklog of forex purchase orders in the banking system at a conservative estimateof about $3bn. Given this backlog alongside budget shortfalls, we struggle to seematerial extraction of NPK's R2.2bn of trapped cash. For this reason, we give NPKnone of this benefit in our DCF calculation. These developments do, however,bode positively for future cash extraction.
We cut our FY18 and FY19 earnings estimates by 16% and 13%, respectivelyThe continued demand slack and loss of some volumes to competitors/verticalintegration has resulted in us reducing our earnings estimates for FY18 (R1.86e)
Munira Kharva, CFA
Research Analyst
+27-011-775-7433
Key changes
Target Price 22.50 to 18.50 ↓ -17.8%
Rating Buy to Hold ↓Source: Deutsche Bank
Price/price relative
Nampak FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE (Rebased)
Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '17
20
30
10
40
Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m
Absolute -8.2 -7.8 9.4
FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE 2.9 7.1 20.5Source: Deutsche Bank
Key indicators (FY1)
ROE (%) 12.0
ROA (%) 4.6
Net debt/equity (%) 16.9
Book value/share (ZAR) 16.4
Price/book (x) 1.1
Net interest cover (x) 4.8
EBIT margin (%) 10.7Source: Deutsche Bank
1 December 2017 CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 9
30 November 2017
General RetailersPeriodical
Sub-Saharan AfricaSouth Africa
Industry
SA CompanyResults Diary
Date30 November 2017
4-8 December 2017 (FY17: SNH; 1H18:AFH)Deutsche Bank forecasts for companies reporting results next week.
Date Company Rating Target price
1 Monday, 4 December 2017 Alexander Forbes Ltd Buy R 7.75
2 Monday, 4 December 2017 Steinhoff International Holdings Ltd Hold R 70.00
Prices are as at Thursday, 30 November 2017; Source: Deutsche Bank
Stefan Swanepoel
Research Analyst
+27-11-775-7483
Charlie Muir-Sands, CFA
Research Analyst
+44-20-754-75749
1 December 2017 CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 10
30 November 2017
Banking / Finance
Chilean Banks
Banking / FinanceIndustry Update
Latin AmericaChile
Industry
Chilean BanksDate30 November 2017
October results show weak start to4Q17Net income takes a hit from deflationThe SBIF released system data for October, showing that net income fell 26%mom (-2% yoy) and ROE declined to 9.5% from 12.9% last month and 10.1% lastyear. Results reflect the negative impact of 0.1% deflation in the month, as wellas continued slow loan growth, partially offset by stable asset quality. Results fellfor both Banco de Chile and Santander Chile on the lower inflation with overallsimilar trends. Weak start to the quarter and premium valuations of 14.3x '18E P/E at Banco de Chile and 14.5x at Santander Chile keep us at Hold.
Muted loan growth, but stable asset qualitySystem loan growth was flat in October (+5% yoy), as weak growth in corporateloans (flat mom, +2% yoy) offset modest growth in consumer lending (+1% mom,+9% yoy). Meanwhile, asset quality has been stable at 1.9% since May andbasically in-line with last year.
Weak start to 4Q17 for Banco de Chile...Net income for October was Ch$34.4bn, down 32% from September (-18% yoy),given the impact of lower inflation on net interest income (-11% mom, -7% yoy),as well as higher provisions (+22% mom, +5% yoy), and a higher tax rate of 22%vs. 16% last month. As such, ROE fell to 13.6% from 20.0% in September and17.5% last year. Aside from weaker net interest income, trading gains fell 34%mom (+1% yoy). Positively, fee income rose 4% mom (flat yoy), while expensesfell 5% mom (-5% yoy). Meanwhile, loan growth was flat in October (+2% yoy),given no growth in corporate or consumer loans. However, the NPL ratio has beenbasically stable at 1.2% since last year. Finally, results for the quarter are runningat only Ch$103bn, 30% below our forecast of Ch$147bn.
...and for Santander Chile as wellNet income of Ch$34.3bn fell 28% mom (-15% yoy), also on lower net interestincome (-6% mom, -1% yoy), as well as a higher tax rate of 30% vs. 24%last month. ROE fell to 13.5% from 19.1% in September and 17.1% last year.Furthermore, fees fell 3% mom (+10% yoy) and provisions rose 6% mom (+3%yoy) despite relatively stable asset quality. This was partially offset by highertrading gains (+66% mom, -28% yoy) and good cost control, with expenses flatmom (+3% yoy). Meanwhile, loans fell 1% mom (+2% yoy), driven by a declinein corporate loans (-1% mom, flat yoy). Finally, net income is running 20% belowDBe of Ch$129bn for the quarter.
Tito Labarta
Research Analyst
+1-212-250-5944
Companies featured
Banco de Chile (BCH.N),USD83.31 Hold
2016A 2017E 2018E
EPS (CLP) 5.66 5.84 6.26
P/E (x) 14.2 15.3 14.3
Price/BV (x) 2.7 2.9 2.7
Santander Chile (BSAC.N),USD28.03 Hold
2016A 2017E 2018E
EPS (CLP) 2.51 2.97 3.11
P/E (x) 14.5 15.2 14.5
Price/BV (x) 2.4 2.7 2.5Source: Deutsche Bank
1 December 2017 CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 11
30 November 2017
Brazil Update
Latin AmericaBrazil
Economics
Brazil UpdateDate30 November 2017
We expect 3Q GDP to grow 0.3% QoQ
Highlights:■ We expect 3Q17 GDP to grow 0.3% QoQ
■ Unemployment fell to 12.2% in October
■ The Lower House Speaker is concerned about the pension reform
Jose Carlos Faria
Chief Economist
+55-11-2113-5185
1 December 2017 CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 12
30 November 2017
Focus Europe
Europe Economics
Focus EuropeDate30 November 2017
2018 Outlook: The return of macrovolatilityBrexit has hit the UK economy, but the euro area economy is flying. The latestsurveys imply euro area GDP may be growing 3%+ annualised in the final quarterof 2017 with little to suggest this won't continue for the time being.
It is precisely because of this very strong growth impulse that we feel the recentspell of unusually low macro volatility will inevitably change in 2018. Gaps withinthe data raise serious questions about the sustainability of growth at the currentpace. Although we have raised 2018 calendar year GDP growth to 2.3%, the sameas 2017, this masks sequential slowing through the year.
Table of contents
2018 Outlook: The return of macro volatility 3
A new post-crisis record, but gaps mean this
ヴ;デW ラa GDP ェヴラ┘デエ ┘ラミげデ ノ;ゲデ6
Inflation: Targeting 1.5% core in 2019 8
Slow ECB exit justified to foster inflation, but
ノララゲW ヮラノキI┞ ゲデ;ミIW ┘ラミげデ ノ;ゲデ11
Euro area labour market: not a simple lag to
the US
13
What's financing the recovery? 15
EU Politics: GWヴマ;ミ┞げゲ ヮラノキデキI;ノ キマヮ;ゲゲW ゲヮラキノゲ EMU reform timeline
17
Regional autonomy movements in Europe -
also about finances
19
Germany: Capex cycle unfazed by political
uncertainty
21
France : Cyclical and structural green lights for
2018
22
Italy: Cyclical momentum versus election
uncertainty
23
Spain: Enough momentum to face headwinds 24
Netherlands: A growth engine 25
UK: Secular stagflation 26
Brexit: The end of the beginning 27
Rate Views 28
Research Team Contacts 29
Growth will nevertheless remain above trend, further tightening an economyalready beginning to show signs of the ramifications associated with persistentabove trend growth. Inflation is beginning to slowly rise yet the market has arigid, adaptive, backward-looking view. German wage settlements could changeperceptions. It will still take a few years for inflation to fully normalise, but ourconfidence in a turning point is building. We expect the ECB hawks to grow innumber over the next year. An acceleration in credit growth could reduce the exitinflation hurdle.
The political cycle is not over. On the one hand, the Macron Pivot has a lotto prove in terms of integration. Our expectations for economic integration arelimited; more fundamental integration could come through migration, securityand defence. On the other, while we expect muddle through in Italy, our anxietyaround the ability to form a stable government is rising and markets are likely tobe reminded that the crisis is structural — a fast economic cycle alone cannotcure it. With at best a transitional deal in principle in the near term, the Brexitrisks to the UK economy won’t easily or quickly dissipate either and we hold oursub-consensus UK growth view for 2018.
Beyond the Italian election the end of ECB QE net purchases will be in sight atend-18 as will the first ECB policy rate hike in mid-19. In many respects 2018 willbe a year of transition between equilibria, and not all adjustments can be expectedto be priced smoothly.
Mark Wall
Chief Economist
+44-20-754-52087
1 December 2017 CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 13
1 December 2017
CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Page 14 Deutsche Bank AG/London
Economic Calendar Country GMT Release DB Expected Actual Consensus Previous
Monday, 27 November
MX 11:00 Trade Balance (Oct), USD, m -USD1,886.4m
IL 14:00 BoI rate decision (Nov) 0.10%rate 0.10%rate
US 15:00 New Home Sales (Oct) -0.70% 667.0k (18.9%)
MX 11:00 Trade Balance (Oct), USD, m -USD1,886.4m
IL 14:00 BoI rate decision (Nov) 0.10%rate 0.10%rate
US 15:00 New Home Sales (Oct) -0.70% 667.0k (18.9%)
MX 11:00 Trade Balance (Oct), USD, m -USD1,886.4m
IL 14:00 BoI rate decision (Nov) 0.10%rate 0.10%rate
Tuesday, 28 November
BR 07:00 FGV Inflation IGP- M (Nov) 0.20% 0.20%
ZA 10:00 BER Business Confidence Index (Q4), Index 35
MX 11:00 Unemployment Rate (Oct) 3.6%rate 3.6%rate
US 15:00 Consumer Confidence (Nov), Index 125.9
US 15:00 Richmond Fed (Nov), Index 12
Wednesday, 29 November
ZA 06:00 M3 (Oct) -6.70%
ZA 06:00 PSCE (Oct) -5.59%
HU 08:00 Unemployment rate (Oct) 4.1%rate
CL 09:00 Industrial production (Oct) -2.50% -1.00%
BR 09:30 Primary budget balance (Oct), BRL, bn BRL4.0bn -BRL21.3bn
IL 11:00 Services exports (Sep), sa -26.20%
RU 13:00 Weekly CPI (Nov) 0.00%
US 13:30 Corporate Profits prelim (Q3), sa 0.7% (6.4%)
US 13:30 GDP Deflator prelim (Q3) 2.20% 1.6% (1.6%)
US 13:30 GDP prelim (Q3), sa 3.00% 3.1% (2.2%)
US 15:00 Pending Home Sales (Oct) 1.00% 0.00%
Thursday, 30 November
TR 07:00 Merchandise trade balance (Oct), USD, bn -USD7.3bn -USD8.1bn
BR 08:00 National Unemployment rate (Oct) 12.40% 12.40%
HU 08:00 PPI (Oct) -4.10%
PL 09:00 GDP (Q3), nsa -4.70% -3.90%
CZ 09:00 M2 (and money supply) (Oct) -10.30%
CL 09:00 Unemployment rate (Oct) 6.70%rate 6.70%rate
ZA 09:30 PPI (Oct) -5.20%
ZA 12:00 Merchandise trade balance (Oct), ZAR, bn ZAR4.0bn
CO 12:00 Unemployment rate (Oct) 9.2%rate
CO 12:00 Urban Unemployment rate (Oct) 10.2%rate 10.5%rate
RU 13:00 CBR FX reserves (Nov), USD, bn USD427.6bn
TR 13:00 CBT FX reserves (Nov), USD, bn USD94.5bn
PL 13:00 CPI(flash) (Nov) 0.1% (2.3%) 0.5% (2.1%)
US 13:30 Continuing Claims (Nov), k 1,904.0k
US 13:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Nov), k 240.0k 239.0k
US 13:30 Core PCE Deflator (Oct), sa 0.20% 0.20% 0.1% (1.3%)
US 13:30 PCE Deflator (Oct) 0.4% (1.6%)
US 13:30 PCE (Oct) 0.30% 0.30% 1.0% (4.4%)
US 13:30 Personal Income (Oct) 0.40% 0.30% 0.4% (3.0%)
US 14:45 Chicago PMI (Nov), Index 63 63 66.2
AR 16:00 Construction activity (Oct) -13.40%
AR 16:00 Industrial Production (Oct), nsa -2.50% -2.30%
Source: Deutsche Bank
1 December 2017
CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 15
Indices Region/Country Index Price local Vol ($m) Price Performance in %($ Terms)
30-Nov-17 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y
EM MSCI EMF 59,489.38 na -1.5 -2.8 -0.5 24.8 19.7 32.2 16.1
EMEA MSCI EMEA 538.98 na -0.9 -0.8 1.6 10.3 9.1 24.3 5.2
LatAm MSCI LatAm 81,155.23 na -1.1 -2.8 -4.4 12.9 14.4 13.2 6.3
Asia MSCI Asia 904.82 na -1.7 -3.2 -0.3 30.7 23.9 40.8 24.6
CEEMA
Czech Republic PX 1,059.27 48 1.0 1.4 2.3 37.8 8.9 -3.6 -50.0
Greece ASE 740.20 110 0.6 3.1 1.6 30.0 -26.6 -16.2 -88.1
Hungary BSE 38,673.73 62 -0.4 -3.1 -1.4 35.1 108.4 74.2 -1.8
Israel TA-25 1,455.43 466 0.5 2.1 1.9 9.0 10.0 29.0 34.5
Poland WIG 62,440.31 857 -0.6 -2.4 -0.2 42.9 11.4 24.0 -23.4
Russia RTS$ 1,131.56 1350 -1.1 -2.3 0.7 -1.8 16.1 -21.2 -49.0
Turkey ISE 100 103,984.39 1825 2.5 -1.1 -7.5 19.4 -31.8 -35.2 -42.2
Bahrain BHSEASI 1,283.71 4 0.0 0.6 0.6 5.2 -10.1 22.4 -50.5
Egypt CASE 14,582.22 74 0.0 3.2 2.3 21.5 -36.7 2.8 -53.2
Jordan ASEGI 2,122.47 23 0.0 0.9 1.9 -2.2 -0.5 10.0 -38.5
Kuwait KWSEIDX 6,196.50 50 0.0 -0.5 -5.3 9.4 -11.5 -2.7 -53.3
Oman MSM30 5,109.62 6 0.1 0.5 2.6 -11.6 -21.5 -7.7 -39.5
Qatar DSM20 7,714.26 97 -0.9 -0.4 -5.9 -26.1 -39.5 -8.2 -17.6
Saudi Arabia TASI 7,003.97 876 0.5 1.8 0.8 -2.9 -18.7 7.2 -26.2
UAE, Abu Dhabi ADSMI 4,283.07 44 0.0 -0.1 -3.9 -5.8 -8.3 60.1 NA
UAE, Dubai DFMGI 3,420.97 172 0.0 -1.2 -5.8 -3.1 -20.1 112.8 -36.1
South Africa JSE All Share 59,772.83 3438 -1.6 0.5 4.3 18.4 -3.3 2.0 -2.0
ASIA
China HSCCI 4,293.74 1128 -1.5 -1.7 -2.0 18.8 -6.0 -2.9 -31.9
China A-Shares SHASHR 3,474.01 28778 -0.5 -1.4 -1.6 12.3 15.0 57.9 -24.0
India BSE 30 33,149.35 69 -1.6 -1.1 0.2 31.2 11.2 44.3 5.2
Indonesia JSE CI 5,952.14 866 -1.5 -1.5 1.7 27.1 10.4 27.5 80.0
Korea KOSPI 2,476.37 8343 -2.5 -2.6 2.3 35.4 27.3 27.5 10.4
Malaysia KLCI 1,717.86 791 -0.4 0.2 1.8 14.7 -22.0 -20.8 1.0
Pakistan KSE 29,112.94 152 0.6 0.4 0.7 -12.2 24.0 128.5 70.5
Philippines MSE CI 8,254.03 316 -0.3 -0.6 1.1 18.8 0.9 18.5 95.8
Taiwan TWSE 10,560.44 7352 -1.6 -2.9 -1.2 22.9 18.6 34.9 32.2
Thailand SET 1,697.39 1804 -0.6 -0.5 0.6 20.9 7.2 20.7 108.1
LATAM
Argentina MERVAL 26,905.26 14 0.7 -0.9 0.4 45.9 35.1 210.9 121.5
Brazil BOVESPA 71,970.99 3406 -1.8 -4.9 -3.3 18.9 3.2 -18.2 NA
Chile IPSA 5,003.40 322 -1.0 -2.7 -12.2 24.5 17.5 -10.4 21.6
Colombia IGBC 10,808.29 77 -0.7 -1.8 1.3 6.4 -34.2 -54.1 -34.0
Mexico IPC 47,092.44 852 -1.7 -2.3 -0.4 14.7 -20.4 -21.7 -7.5
Peru IBVL 19,694.09 15 -0.4 -1.1 -0.4 31.3 17.8 -21.7 0.3
Venezuela BVC 1,319.87 2536 13.1 87.3 93.3 -95.8 27700.5 139005.6 746659.8 Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
1 December 2017
CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Page 16 Deutsche Bank AG/London
Currencies Country Currency Last Price Price Performance Forecasts 30-Nov-17 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 3M 6M 12M EMEA
Czech Republic CZK 21.4 -0.5 0.4 -2.7 -16.2 -3.1 10.2 21.6 21.5 20.8
Hungary HUF 262.9 -0.1 0.6 -1.7 -10.3 7.2 21.6 267.5 269.2 260.0
Israel ILS 3.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -8.9 -10.8 -8.3 3.5 3.5 3.4
Poland PLN 3.5 -0.5 0.1 -3.3 -15.6 5.4 11.6 3.5 3.5 3.4
Russia RUB 58.5 -0.1 0.2 0.5 -4.6 12.9 89.2 56.6 56.8 57.0
Turkey TRY 3.9 -0.7 0.1 3.1 11.7 77.6 120.5 3.8 3.8 3.9
South Africa ZAR 13.7 0.1 -1.6 -3.0 -0.3 24.5 54.0 12.4 12.3 12.0
ASIA
China CNY 6.6 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -4.9 7.6 6.1 6.9 7.0 7.1
India INR 64.5 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -5.1 3.8 18.3 66.0 66.0 66.0
Indonesia IDR 13,526.3 0.2 0.2 -0.4 0.6 10.3 41.0 13,870.0 13,990.0 14,180.0
Korea KRW 1,085.7 0.5 0.2 -2.3 -10.1 -2.5 0.3 1,130.0 1,140.0 1,160.0
Malaysia MYR 4.1 0.2 -0.7 -3.4 -8.8 19.1 34.5 4.4 4.4 4.6
Pakistan PKR 105.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.3 9.1 na na na
Philippines PHP 50.3 -0.1 -0.6 -2.6 1.2 12.3 23.0 52.5 53.2 53.5
Taiwan TWD 30.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -6.9 -3.4 3.2 31.2 31.5 31.7
Thailand THB 32.6 0.3 -0.2 -1.5 -8.9 -0.9 6.3 33.7 33.9 34.2
LATAM
Argentina ARS 17.4 0.3 0.0 -1.3 9.1 104.4 260.4 18.3 19.0 20.3
Brazil BRL 3.3 1.6 1.3 -0.1 0.5 27.5 55.0 3.2 3.3 3.3
Chile CLP 648.0 0.7 2.2 2.0 -2.8 5.9 34.8 642.0 645.0 650.0
Mexico MXN 18.6 0.7 0.6 -2.6 -9.8 33.8 44.3 19.4 19.4 19.5
Colombia COP 3,010.1 0.2 1.1 -1.3 0.3 33.0 65.9 2,990.1 3,005.0 3,034.7
Peru PEN 3.2 0.1 -0.1 -1.0 -3.7 10.5 25.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
Other Nations
Euro EUR 0.8 -0.5 0.2 -2.5 -11.6 4.7 9.1 0.9 0.9 0.8
UK GBP 0.7 -0.7 -1.3 -2.0 -8.9 16.4 18.5 0.8 0.8 0.8
Switzerland CHF 1.0 -0.2 0.3 -1.9 -3.5 1.9 6.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Japan JPY 112.1 0.1 0.5 -1.7 -4.1 -5.2 35.9 117.0 118.0 120.0
Hong Kong HKD 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 Source: Bloomberg Financial LP
1 December 2017
CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 17
Commodities
Price local Performance (% )
Forecasts
30-Nov-17 1D 1 W 1 M Ytd 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y 2016E 2017E 2018E
BASE METAL
Aluminium ($/mt) 2,048.0 -1.0 -3.9 -5.5 21.0 0.2 -0.8 -18.2 1788 1728 1670
Copper ($/mt) 6,762.0 0.0 -3.4 -1.0 22.2 3.1 -14.4 -1.7 5900 5725 6800
Nickel ($/mt) 11,050.0 -3.6 -7.8 -4.3 10.9 -32.2 -34.8 -58.5 10625 11250 12500
Iron Ore($/mt) 66.4 0.0 0.6 11.8 -15.0 -4.3 -43.2 na 69 54 56
Zinc ($/mt) 3,197.0 1.6 -2.3 -0.1 24.7 40.8 59.4 28.1 3100 2538 2100
Tin ($/mt) 19,775.0 1.3 0.6 -0.1 -6.3 -2.9 -8.5 17.0 20510 19613 19408
OIL
WTI (Oil) 57.4 0.2 -2.5 6.5 6.9 -22.1 -34.8 -36.9 54 60 62
PRECIOUS METAL
Gold ($/Oz.) 1,274.9 -0.7 -1.1 0.1 10.6 7.0 -26.1 60.8 1203 1255 1288
Palladium Spot $/Oz 1,010.1 -0.6 1.1 3.9 48.3 25.4 47.6 194.5 748 783 850
Platinum Spot $/Oz 942.7 0.3 0.0 2.7 4.3 -22.6 -41.5 -34.4 996 1125 1250
Silver Spot $/Oz 16.4 -0.6 -3.8 -2.6 3.3 1.1 -52.0 16.0 17.2 18.5 19.0 Source: Bloomberg Financial LP
CE
EM
EA
& Latam
Dayb
oo
k
1 D
ecemb
er 201
7
Pag
e 18 D
eutsch
e Ban
k AG
/Lon
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Macro Data GDP Growth
(YoY %)
GDP Nominal ($bn)
GDP per Capita ($)
CPI
(YoY %)
CA Balance
(% GDP)
Fiscal Balance
(% GDP)
Total Govt Debt
(% GDP)
Total Ext Debt
(% GDP)
Country 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E
CEEMEA
Czech Republic 3.8 3.0 191 18116 2.4 2.2 1.3 1.0 0.3 0 35.7 34.7 69.6 62.4
Egypt 3.5 4.1 NA NA 29.9 16.9 -5.1 -3.8 -10.9 -9.9 101.2 88.8 NA NA
Hungary 3.8 3.5 137 13936 2.3 2.6 3.1 2.5 -2.3 -2.4 72.4 71.1 95.4 94.4
Israel 3.6 3.6 353 40536 0.1 0.6 3.5 3.0 -2.5 -2.5 60.4 60.0 24.3 22.2
Kazakhstan 3.6 3.6 NA NA 6.5 6.5 -1.9 -1.9 0.1 0.1 NA NA NA NA
Poland 3.9 3.4 519 13660 1.9 2.0 -1.0 -1.1 -2.7 -2.9 53.3 53.9 71.9 71.4
Russia 2.0 1.8 1569 10683 3.8 3.5 2.9 3.2 -2.5 -1.4 15.2 15.7 33.6 32.6
Saudi Arabia 1.6 1.6 NA NA 4.0 4.0 -6.8 -6.8 -9.5 -9.5 17.0 20.7 NA NA
South Africa 0.8 1.7 352 6196 5.2 4.4 -2.5 -3.1 -4 -3.3 51.7 52.1 36.7 30.3
Turkey 5.2 4.1 840 10579 10.8 8.5 -4.9 -4.7 -2.0 -2.4 28.4 28.9 50.2 49.1
United Arab Emirates 2.7 2.7 NA NA 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 0.3 0.3 20.7 20.8 43.0 NA
ASIA
China 6.8 6.3 12065 8560 1.7 2.7 1.2 1.1 -4 -4 41.6 42.1 13.0 13.20088
India 6.5 7.5 2514 1924 3.1 4.4 -1.3 -1.5 -3.2 -3 69.1 67.4 19.8 18.9
Indonesia 5.0 4.8 1009 3854 3.9 3.2 -1.6 -1.4 -1.7 -1.4 27.4 28.5 31.1 28.9
Korea 2.9 2.7 1496 29339 2.1 2.0 5.7 5.1 0.7 0.7 41.5 42.6 27.3 27.7
Malaysia 5.5 5.0 313 9762 3.5 2.5 2.7 2.5 -3.2 -3.0 66.3 65.6 62.4 54.7
Philippines 6.4 5.7 313 2982 3.2 3.4 1.0 2.0 -2.6 -2.8 44.2 43.1 23.3 21.9
Taiwan 2.2 2.2 566 24028 0.7 1.5 12.7 11.9 -0.5 -0.4 38.1 38.5 31.8 32.6
Thailand 3.7 3.6 447 6748 0.7 1.7 9.4 8.6 -2.0 -1.9 38.0 38.7 31.8 31.6
LATAM
Argentina 2.8 2.9 612 14 27.1 18.1 -3.5 -3.8 -6.2 -5.5 45.2 50.1 31.9 31.4
Brazil 0.7 2.6 2034 9802 3.4 3.4 -0.6 -1.4 -8.1 -7.5 75.5 76.7 26.9 25.7
Chile 1.5 2.9 276 15 2.1 1.8 -1.6 -1.3 -3.2 -3.6 23.6 25.6 79.4 85.0
Colombia 1.6 2.5 306 6209 4.3 3.1 -3.4 -3.3 -3.7 -3.4 45.2 46.3 41.7 41.6
Mexico 2.0 2.4 1404 11 6.0 4.2 -1.8 -2.0 -1.9 -2.5 48.7 48.7 23.0 30.2
Peru 2.7 4.0 212 6665 3.0 2.0 -1.8 -1.7 -3.0 -3.5 25.5 27.6 35.7 33.3
Venezuela -12.0 -6.0 215 6850 652.7 2349.3 -0.4 -1.3 -18.5 -18.7 17.3 16.6 65.3 66.8
CEEMEA 3.0 2.8 3961 113706 7.3 5.8 -1.3 -1.2 -3.8 -3.5 33.2 33.5 45.4 43.6
ASIA 6.1 6.0 18723 87196 2.3 3.1 1.5 1.3 -3.1 -3.1 44.8 45.0 18.0 17.8
LATAM 0.9 2.3 5059 29567 37.4 109.4 -1.6 -2.0 -5.8 -5.6 55.2 56.5 32.2 33.9
EM 4.7 4.9 27743 230470 7.8 16.8 0.5 0.3 -3.6 -3.5 45.0 45.5 24.5 24.4
US 2.2 2.4 NA NA 2.1 2.0 -2.9 -3.2 -3.6 -2.8 NA NA NA NA
Europe 2.2 2.0 NA NA 1.5 1.4 3.0 2.6 -1.3 -1.3 NA NA NA NA
Japan 1.5 0.7 NA NA 0.3 0.4 4.0 4.2 -3.5 -3.1 NA NA NA NA Source: Deutsche Bank, IMF
1 December 2017
CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 19
Interest Rates Yield Change in bps
(%) 1 M 1 Y
Czech Republic CZK_SW05/6MF/ICAP 0.91 -12 33
Hungary HUF_SW05/6MF 1.12 -26 -35
Israel ILS_SW05 0.82 -10 5
Poland PLN_SW05/6MF/ICAP 2.28 -14 29
Russia RUB_SW05/ICAP 6.80 -33 -140
Saudi Arabia SAR_SW05 3.05 -51 -16
South Africa - ZAR_SW05 7.35 -12 -118
Turkey TRY_SW05 10.77 -15 103
Argentina - ARG ARS BONAR V 3.82 292 84
Brazil - BRL PRE 5Y 10.84 66 -154
Chile - CLP SWAP 5Y 3.38 -7 -72
Colombia - COP_USD_SWAP 5Y 5.14 -18 -161
Mexico - MXN TIIE 5Y 7.16 -11 168
Peru - PEN Nominal/PERUGB AUG 20 4.14 -25 -124 Source: Deutsche Bank
Country Risk 10Yr Credit Default Swap(Bps) (CEEMEA)
Source: Deutsche Bank
Country Risk 10Yr Credit Default Swap(Bps)
Source: Deutsche Bank
1 December 2017
CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Page 20 Deutsche Bank AG/London
P/BV valuation – By Countries GEM Country Current P/BV Current P/BV versus
country's 10-year historical average P/BV
Current P/BV relative to EM P/BV , versus 10-
year historical average
EM 1.80 4.8% 0.0%
DM 2.47 25.6% 16.6%
US 3.33 34.7% 24.6%
Brazil 1.73 3.5% -0.3%
Chile 1.79 -12.7% -17.3%
China 2.07 9.2% 6.0%
Colombia 1.28 -24.0% -28.0%
Czech Republic 1.48 -16.5% -19.3%
Egypt 3.20 47.6% 41.6%
Greece 0.43 -61.7% -63.1%
Hungary 1.80 40.7% 35.0%
India 3.16 2.1% -3.0%
Indonesia 2.99 -16.0% -20.0%
Korea 1.25 3.1% -1.8%
Malaysia 1.68 -16.4% -21.5%
Mexico 2.60 -6.0% -12.2%
Peru 2.47 -21.7% -23.3%
Philippines 2.58 -5.1% -12.2%
Poland 1.48 6.1% 1.0%
Qatar 1.28 -35.7% -38.9%
Russia 0.82 -14.5% -16.0%
South Africa 2.60 6.1% -0.8%
Taiwan 1.97 8.4% 1.9%
Thailand 2.25 9.2% 1.9%
Turkey 1.31 -16.5% -21.1%
UAE 1.49 13.9% 6.3% Source: Deutsche Bank
P/BV valuation – By EM Sector
GEM Sector Current P/BV Current P/BV versus
sector's 10-year historical
average P/BV
Current P/BV relative to EM
P/BV , versus 10-year
historical average
EM 1.80 4.8% 0.0%
Consumer Discretionary 2.29 7.6% 1.0%
Consumer Staples 4.01 12.2% 3.9%
Energy 0.92 -22.1% -23.3%
Financials 1.28 -16.2% -19.5%
Health Care 4.12 13.2% 4.6%
Industrial 1.44 -11.4% -15.2%
Information Technology 3.34 52.4% 43.1%
Materials 1.50 -6.1% -8.7%
Real Estate 1.51 10.9% 1.4%
Telco 1.99 -14.0% -18.6%
Utilities 1.10 -4.1% -10.1% Source: Deutsche Bank
1 December 2017
CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 21
CEEMEA valuation 11/30/17 Daily YTD Price P/BV (x) Div Yld % (US$ m)Company Ticker Rating Price Change % Change % Target 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E Mkt Cap
Banks
Abu Dhabi Comm Bank ADCB.AD Buy 7.05 0.0 2.2 8.80 15.6 16.3 8.9 7.9 1.3 6.0 9945
Akbank AKBNK.IS Hold 8.99 1.6 2.9 10.40 16.6 16.1 7.1 6.6 1.1 2.5 9130
Al Rajhi Bank 1120.SE Buy 64.00 0.6 1.6 72.20 16.6 15.6 11.4 11.4 1.9 3.5 27731
Alawwal bank 1040.SE Hold 11.70 0.9 -16.1 11.10 10.3 10.7 9.7 8.7 1.0 2.2 3566
Alinma Bank 1150.SE Hold 18.02 -0.2 19.4 17.15 10.0 10.0 13.2 12.6 1.3 3.4 7154
Arab National Bank 1080.SE Hold 24.80 -0.6 12.0 25.30 12.6 11.2 8.1 8.6 1.0 3.6 6613
Bank Saint-Petersburg BSPB.MM Sell 55.35 0.1 -13.2 32.00 5.2 NA na na 0.4 NA 416
Banque Saudi Fransi 1050.SE Hold 28.90 0.2 10.8 28.80 13.4 11.6 8.8 9.9 1.1 3.6 9254
Barclays Africa Group BGAJ.J Buy 158 -0.6 -6.2 175.00 15.2 14.3 8.1 7.6 1.2 6.6 9776
Capitec Bank CPIJ.J Sell 985 -0.5 42.1 360.00 25.7 25.4 29.9 25.7 7.2 1.3 8327
CIB COMI.CA Hold 75.90 0.0 6.3 73.00 36.3 33.1 10.3 8.9 3.0 2.1 4941
Dubai Islamic Bank DISB.DU Buy 6.05 0.0 8.6 7.30 22.4 21.1 8.3 8.5 1.6 7.6 8124
Emirates NBD ENBD.DU Buy 8.15 0.0 -4.0 12.75 16.7 16.0 6.2 5.9 0.9 5.8 12332
First Abu Dhabi Bank FAB.AD Hold 10.10 0.0 5.5 11.40 12.2 12.5 10.7 9.9 1.2 5.2 29843
Garanti GARAN.IS Buy 9.61 3.7 12.9 11.40 16.2 16.0 6.9 6.2 1.0 3.1 10247
Halkbank HALKB.IS Hold 8.88 1.6 -14.9 15.00 16.7 15.3 3.2 3.1 0.4 2.3 2818
Isbank ISCTR.IS Hold 6.17 2.2 6.6 7.70 14.2 13.7 5.3 5.0 0.7 4.2 7049
National Bank of Kuwait NBKK.KW Buy 721 -0.2 12.1 850.00 11.1 13.9 13.8 10.1 0.0 3.7 13878
NCB 1180.SE Hold 50.80 0.2 19.3 48.50 17.2 16.4 11.2 11.1 1.8 3.2 27049
Nedbank NEDJ.J Buy 231 1.7 -2.6 225.00 14.6 14.6 8.9 8.3 1.4 5.4 8092
Qatar National Bank QNBK.QA Buy 117 -0.1 -19.3 150.00 20.7 19.1 8.5 7.9 1.5 3.8 29678
RAKBANK RAKB.AD Hold 4.70 0.0 -5.1 5.05 10.8 11.9 9.5 8.7 1.0 6.4 2145
Riyad Bank 1010.SE Hold 11.88 -0.5 2.9 11.55 10.5 9.9 9.1 9.7 0.9 5.5 9503
Samba Financial Group 1090.SE Hold 22.60 0.0 -7.1 25.00 11.8 11.0 8.4 8.7 1.0 4.2 11422
Saudi British Bank 1060.SE Buy 26.95 -0.2 7.8 29.00 13.2 11.8 9.3 9.9 1.2 2.9 10779
Sberbank SBER.MM Buy 224 -1.6 35.7 215.00 20.2 19.6 8.0 7.1 1.5 0.0 84071
Standard Bank SBKJ.J Buy 173 -0.2 14.3 170.00 16.3 16.3 10.7 10.0 1.7 5.0 20522
TCS TCSq.L Sell 18.40 -0.3 74.4 7.30 31.1 29.8 19.7 16.4 5.1 1.4 3361
Vakifbank VAKBN.IS Hold 5.79 5.4 19.2 6.90 15.8 14.7 4.3 4.0 0.6 0.8 3675
VTB VTBRq.L Sell 1.79 -5.4 -25.0 0.80 2.3 NA na na 0.5 0.0 11600
Yapi Kredi Bank YKBNK.IS Hold 4.15 3.2 8.3 4.80 12.2 12.4 5.6 4.9 0.6 0.0 4580
Consumer Discretionary
Al Tayyar 1810.SE Buy 25.85 2.2 -29.5 45.00 5.2 4.6 6.9 6.8 0.9 3.9 1445
Alhokair 4240.SE Hold 33.20 2.8 -9.7 42.00 10.4 9.7 19.5 13.4 2.4 0.0 1859
CCC CCCP.WA Buy 240 -2.0 40.9 340.00 18.0 13.0 31.2 20.4 5.9 1.1 2707
Cyfrowy Polsat CPS.WA Hold 24.93 1.9 20.1 28.00 7.1 6.6 14.6 12.6 1.3 1.3 4520
Herfy 6002.SE Buy 49.00 -0.5 -37.2 70.00 10.6 9.7 12.5 11.3 3.5 4.4 845
Imperial IPLJ.J Buy 227 -1.3 24.9 210.00 6.7 6.1 11.6 12.3 2.3 3.8 3229
Jarir Marketing 4190.SE Hold 140 -0.3 21.3 137.00 15.4 14.1 16.0 14.9 7.4 5.0 3369
LPP LPPP.WA Hold 8,174 -1.0 70.7 8,000.00 15.6 13.2 29.0 24.7 5.8 0.4 4249
Mr Price MRPJ.J Buy 208 -2.4 30.7 242.00 15.0 12.7 20.3 20.4 7.9 3.3 3889
Naspers NPNJn.J Buy 3,688 -3.3 83.6 4,423.00 1,624.1 264.8 39.0 43.6 7.8 0.2 116280
Richemont CFRJ.J Buy 117 -1.1 29.3 105.00 16.2 13.3 28.6 22.6 2.6 2.2 48227
SACO 4008.SE Hold 113 -0.3 32.1 90.00 15.3 13.6 18.3 16.3 5.1 4.0 721
STAR SRRJ.J Buy 25.35 -0.3 14.3 29.00 14.4 12.0 26.5 23.3 1.7 1.9 6395
Steinhoff SNHJ.J Hold 56.26 -0.6 -20.9 70.00 8.2 7.2 10.8 9.6 0.9 0.9 17519
Super Group SPGJ.J Buy 39.90 -0.6 3.6 46.00 6.1 4.9 11.7 10.4 1.7 1.6 1016
The Foschini Group Ltd TFGJ.J Buy 158 0.0 -0.5 178.00 9.4 8.2 13.6 14.3 3.6 4.5 2452
Truworths TRUJ.J Buy 80.02 0.0 0.7 93.00 8.3 8.0 12.7 12.1 3.8 5.6 2507
Woolworths Holdings Ltd WHLJ.J Hold 58.00 -0.6 -18.1 59.00 8.4 8.5 17.7 14.5 2.9 5.4 4076
EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA for Banks has been replaced by ROE The Daily and YTD % Price changes refer to the change in US dollar value of the stock Source: Deutsche Bank, Companies
1 December 2017
CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Page 22 Deutsche Bank AG/London
CEEMEA valuation 11/30/17 Daily YTD Price P/BV (x) Div Yld % (US$ m)Company Ticker Rating Price Change % Change % Target 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E Mkt Cap
Consumer Staples
Almarai 2280.SE Sell 55.60 -0.9 2.9 48.00 16.2 15.8 23.9 23.0 3.8 1.3 14826
AVI AVIJ.J Buy 101 0.3 10.3 110.00 12.3 11.1 18.5 17.7 6.7 3.8 2389
BidCorp BIDJ.J Hold 295 -1.1 20.7 305.00 15.0 13.4 22.2 21.2 4.2 1.7 7164
British American Tobacco BTIJ.J Buy 876 -2.5 12.8 600.00 13.5 na 18.4 na 0.2 3.6 110178
Clicks Group Ltd CLSJ.J Hold 173 -0.3 50.5 154.00 19.2 17.0 25.8 30.8 12.4 1.0 2999
Dino DNP.WA Buy 72.84 -2.9 137 76.00 20.3 15.8 32.2 24.5 8.0 0.0 2025
Eurocash EUR.WA Hold 27.48 -1.9 -17.2 34.00 10.3 9.8 28.2 22.1 3.8 2.7 1082
Lenta LNTAq.L Hold 5.77 -3.4 -29.6 6.80 7.3 6.4 13.0 11.0 2.3 0.0 2808
Magnit MGNT.MM Hold 6,359 -0.2 -39.0 9,000.00 8.2 6.9 17.2 13.1 2.9 4.0 10280
Magnit MGNTq.L Hold 26.42 0.1 -39.8 37.00 9.6 8.0 20.1 15.3 3.5 3.3 12492
Massmart MSMJ.J Buy 112 0.5 -10.8 125.00 8.2 7.5 19.8 17.4 3.6 2.5 1776
Othaim 4001.SE Hold 126 1.3 28.2 116.00 15.8 13.7 19.3 17.0 4.0 1.6 1514
Pick'n Pay Stores PIKJ.J Hold 63.65 2.4 0.2 62.00 11.5 9.5 28.6 22.0 7.6 2.5 2245
Pioneer PFGJ.J Hold 131 3.8 -14.7 125.00 17.4 10.2 27.1 15.7 3.8 2.8 1782
Shoprite SHPJ.J Hold 228 0.2 33.2 237.00 12.1 11.0 19.4 20.0 4.6 2.3 9046
Spar Group Limited SPPJ.J Hold 190 -1.4 -4.2 200.00 12.0 11.0 18.3 18.5 5.6 3.4 2673
Tiger Brands TBSJ.J Hold 417 1.8 5.2 410.00 13.6 12.2 18.5 16.4 4.0 2.5 5067
X5 Retail Group PJPq.L Buy 37.10 0.8 14.3 57.00 7.7 6.3 18.3 13.4 3.7 1.4 10074
Diversified Financials
Alexander Forbes AFHJ.J Buy 6.50 -2.4 -18.0 7.75 na na 12.6 10.8 na 5.8 599
Brait BATJ.J Buy 46.19 2.1 -47.1 62.00 na na na na na NA 1709
Coronation CMLJ.J Sell 72.30 -2.4 2.8 68.00 12.4 12.4 17.1 14.9 12.1 6.2 1849
FirstRand FSRJ.J Hold 56.35 -1.3 6.3 50.00 3.2 3.2 10.8 11.8 2.9 4.5 23108
Investec INVP.L Buy 517 0.6 5.9 590.00 0.0 0.0 11.7 9.8 0.0 4.7 6295
Investec INLJ.J Buy 95.04 -0.6 5.0 110.00 1.3 1.3 9.6 9.3 1.4 4.7 6258
JSE JSEJ.J Buy 134 1.8 -18.3 144.00 10.7 8.5 14.1 11.7 3.7 4.2 839
Moscow Exchange MOEX.MM Buy 124 -1.1 3.7 185.00 5.6 5.4 10.9 10.7 2.2 6.4 4737
Peregrine PGRJ.J Buy 26.68 -2.0 -10.9 31.75 na na 12.7 9.9 na 4.5 412
RMB Holdings Ltd RMHJ.J Buy 66.92 -0.7 1.0 63.00 2.5 2.5 12.0 11.4 2.3 4.8 6908
Transaction Capital TCPJ.J Buy 15.00 0.5 4.0 16.75 2.9 2.9 14.8 12.2 2.7 2.3 655
Energy
Dana Gas DANA.AD Hold 0.70 0.0 29.6 0.62 20.2 20.7 na na 0.5 0.0 1328
Gazprom GAZP.MM Hold 132 -0.9 -10.4 115.00 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.4 0.2 6.6 49928
Gazprom Neft SIBN.MM Hold 251 -1.8 22.9 235.00 4.2 3.7 4.9 3.9 0.8 4.3 20244
Gulf Int'l Services GISS.QA Buy 15.04 -2.7 -51.7 27.00 8.5 6.9 24.5 10.6 0.8 6.4 768
KazMunaiGas E&P KMGq.L Hold 11.65 -0.4 51.5 12.00 1.4 1.6 8.1 13.1 0.8 1.3 4775
LUKOIL LKOH.MM Buy 3,293 -0.4 0.0 3,800.00 3.5 3.5 7.0 7.0 0.7 5.9 40128
Novatek NVTKq.L Hold 113 -1.6 -12.7 102.00 10.6 10.1 13.9 12.7 2.7 2.2 34214
Rosneft ROSN.MM Buy 294 -0.2 -23.6 355.00 5.7 4.8 6.3 4.8 0.9 3.4 53193
Sasol SOLJ.J Hold 430 1.0 8.1 380.00 6.4 7.2 11.0 12.2 1.2 3.7 19203
Surgutneftegaz SNGS.MM Hold 27.50 -2.3 -6.9 29.00 2.8 3.2 4.4 5.4 0.3 2.2 20416
Surgutneftegaz SNGS_p.MM Buy 28.39 -2.8 -7.2 32.00 2.9 3.4 4.5 5.5 0.3 2.1 21077
Tatneft TATN.MM Hold 457 -2.2 12.1 525.00 5.0 5.5 7.3 8.2 1.5 11.3 17572
Transneft TRNF_p.MM Buy 178,000 -3.1 -5.8 250,000.00 3.6 3.4 5.8 5.7 0.7 4.6 21677
Health Care
Aspen APNJ.J Hold 306 -2.7 8.0 305.00 15.1 13.1 21.0 17.6 2.9 0.9 10195
IDH IDHC.L Hold 4.71 -1.3 39.6 3.21 20.2 16.9 28.9 23.8 5.6 3.0 707
Life HC LHCJ.J Hold 26.11 -1.5 -19.7 30.60 9.1 8.7 13.5 14.8 2.7 4.2 2441
MDMG MDMGq.L Buy 10.30 -1.9 9.8 13.80 10.8 10.5 17.0 17.2 3.1 1.7 771
Mediclinic MEIJ.J Hold 101 2.5 -22.1 93.50 11.3 12.6 29.7 20.5 0.0 1.8 5446
Mediclinic International MDCM.L Hold 566 5.5 -19.5 502.00 11.6 12.9 29.6 20.5 0.0 1.7 5635
Netcare NTCJ.J Hold 22.50 0.3 -29.2 29.20 8.2 7.7 12.2 11.5 2.5 4.5 2248
NMC Health NMC.L Buy 2,849 -0.7 103 3,920.00 25.1 19.7 37.0 26.2 7.3 0.4 7987
SPIMACO 2070.SE Buy 28.50 1.1 -30.1 50.00 15.9 14.6 13.5 12.7 1.1 3.5 912
Industrials
Arabtec Holding ARTC.DU Hold 2.45 0.0 -54.1 2.96 14.1 11.1 37.0 32.6 2.3 0.0 1001
Barloworld BAWJ.J Buy 154 2.8 31.1 145.00 5.8 5.0 11.6 11.5 1.6 2.5 2377
Bidvest BVTJ.J Hold 191 -1.6 5.9 168.00 8.3 8.5 14.7 14.6 2.9 3.0 4667
DP World DPW.DI Buy 24.05 0.0 37.4 28.00 10.2 9.4 15.6 14.1 2.1 1.7 19962
Drake & Scull DSI.DU Hold 1.92 0.0 0.0 0.40 na 35.8 na 55.7 3.6 0.0 1178
Enka Insaat ENKAI.IS Hold 5.64 -0.7 -6.1 5.70 7.2 5.8 8.6 7.3 1.0 3.3 6014
Global Ports GLPRq.L Hold 3.99 2.2 -0.4 4.50 6.9 6.1 8.7 7.8 1.9 0.0 761
Globaltrans GLTRq.L Buy 9.20 1.7 45.3 9.50 5.3 4.5 12.0 9.9 2.0 9.4 1644
Industries Qatar IQCD.QA Buy 88.75 -3.0 -24.5 125.00 43.9 36.3 15.0 13.6 1.4 4.2 14746
Orascom Construction OC.DI Hold 7.60 0.0 45.0 7.60 3.7 4.4 7.5 6.2 2.4 0.0 895
Tekfen Holding TKFEN.IS Hold 14.16 -2.4 96.3 10.70 6.9 6.7 9.2 9.0 1.9 2.2 1330
Insurance
Discovery DSYJ.J Sell 165 -0.3 44.2 125.00 na na 22.2 19.2 na 1.2 7771
Liberty LBHJ.J Buy 116 0.0 4.9 125.00 na na 11.1 9.9 na 6.4 2373
MMI MMIJ.J Hold 20.08 -1.6 -14.7 20.00 na na 9.6 8.9 na 8.2 2355
Old Mutual OMLJ.J Buy 36.37 -1.5 5.9 44.00 na na 0.1 0.1 na 355.0 12689
RMI RMIJ.J Hold 42.42 0.4 6.9 41.00 na na 15.4 12.7 na 2.9 4609
Sanlam SLMJ.J Buy 78.26 -1.3 24.7 84.00 na na 16.0 13.9 na 3.9 11710
Santam SNTJ.J Hold 259 -0.2 10.9 285.00 na na na na na na na
EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA for Banks has been replaced by ROE The Daily and YTD % Price changes refer to the change in US dollar value of the stock Source: Deutsche Bank, Companies
1 December 2017
CEEMEA & Latam Daybook
Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 23
CEEMEA valuation 11/30/17 Daily YTD Price P/BV (x) Div Yld % (US$ m)Company Ticker Rating Price Change % Change % Target 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E Mkt Cap
Materials
Amplats AMSJ.J Buy 364 -2.2 38.1 420.00 9.3 7.4 37.8 18.9 2.4 0.0 6982
AngloGold Ashanti ANGJ.J Buy 143 0.8 -6.2 175.00 7.7 5.2 62.2 15.0 1.6 0.0 4310
Antofagasta PLC ANTO.L Sell 910 -0.5 47.9 800.00 6.6 6.6 17.6 18.2 1.7 3.3 12125
Gold Fields GFIJ.J Buy 58.19 0.2 33.8 65.00 4.2 4.6 17.2 26.7 1.0 1.9 3492
Harmony HARJ.J Hold 25.22 5.2 -19.8 25.00 7.8 2.7 13.6 7.4 0.4 4.0 808
Impala Platinum IMPJ.J Hold 39.00 -8.3 -8.5 45.00 9.2 7.2 na 184.7 0.6 0.2 2048
Lonmin Plc LONJ.J Sell 11.98 2.8 -48.8 4.90 na na na na 0.2 0.0 247
Ma'aden 1211.SE Sell 54.50 -0.4 39.8 31.00 24.5 18.4 91.6 49.5 2.4 0.0 16981
Nampak NPKJ.J Hold 17.90 0.9 -3.3 18.50 4.9 4.7 14.8 9.5 1.2 0.0 838
Northam NHMJ.J Hold 49.80 -0.1 23.3 56.00 23.1 10.1 na 56.3 2.2 0.0 1274
Pfleiderer Group SA PFLP.WA Hold 35.50 -0.9 14.0 40.00 6.1 5.5 24.8 15.4 2.2 2.8 651
RBPlat RBPJ.J Hold 31.60 0.2 -11.0 36.00 21.6 18.7 88.6 33.3 0.5 0.0 445
SABIC 2010.SE Hold 101 0.2 10.2 95.00 7.9 7.4 15.5 15.0 1.7 4.0 80634
Sibanye-Stillwater SGLJ.J Hold 18.77 -1.2 -25.9 20.00 6.0 3.2 na 8.6 1.7 1.6 2508
Real Estate
Aldar Properties ALDR.AD Buy 2.20 0.0 -16.4 3.00 5.8 6.3 7.2 7.6 0.7 5.0 4709
Attacq ATTJ.J Buy 18.17 -0.1 7.9 22.00 28.5 25.8 20.5 17.1 0.9 0.0 934
Damac Properties DAMAC.DU Hold 3.45 0.0 50.0 3.20 4.7 4.4 6.2 6.0 1.4 7.2 5683
Dar Al Arkan 4300.SE Hold 9.55 3.9 55.3 6.00 23.4 21.5 30.3 24.8 0.6 0.0 2750
Emaar Economic City 4220.SE Hold 13.08 0.2 -23.7 12.10 60.6 44.9 71.4 44.0 1.3 0.0 2965
Emaar Malls EMAA.DU Hold 2.18 0.0 -17.4 2.70 12.1 10.9 14.2 12.8 1.7 4.6 7724
Emaar Properties EMAR.DU Buy 7.64 0.0 9.4 10.60 7.2 6.6 9.5 8.6 1.2 2.7 14893
Emira Property Fund EMIJ.J Hold 13.24 -0.1 -7.1 14.50 12.2 12.0 14.1 10.4 0.7 0.0 483
Emlak REIT EKGYO.IS Hold 2.46 3.2 -26.3 3.19 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.6 0.7 0.0 2373
Equites EQUJ.J Buy 20.00 -2.1 26.9 21.50 17.6 12.0 7.8 17.0 1.4 0.0 434
Fortress FFBJ.J Hold 42.15 0.1 30.7 42.00 21.0 19.9 10.5 18.0 1.0 0.0 3222
Fortress Income Fund Ltd FFAJ.J Hold 17.25 -0.1 4.4 18.80 12.3 12.0 5.4 8.1 0.4 0.0 1443
Growthpoint GRTJ.J Hold 25.00 0.1 -3.2 27.00 13.2 12.4 17.0 12.7 0.8 0.0 5230
Hyprop HYPJ.J Buy 107 0.7 -8.3 125.00 17.0 17.3 18.9 14.7 1.1 0.0 1941
Octodec Investments Ltd OCTJ.J Sell 17.05 -3.2 -22.5 18.00 10.1 9.3 8.6 7.7 0.6 0.0 326
Palm Hills Developments PHDC.CA Hold 4.08 0.0 34.6 3.80 10.0 7.3 13.2 8.3 1.4 0.0 532
Redefine Properties Ltd RDFJ.J Hold 10.12 -0.3 -9.3 11.50 16.3 14.6 13.0 12.0 1.0 0.0 3740
Resilient Property Income Fund Ltd RESJ.J Hold 146 0.9 28.2 140.00 36.0 34.6 17.2 23.3 1.8 0.0 4293
SA Corporate Real Estate Fund SACJ.J Hold 4.71 0.5 -16.0 5.80 12.2 12.3 10.5 9.9 0.8 0.0 799
SODIC OCDI.CA Hold 19.50 0.0 34.0 17.20 9.0 6.1 9.3 7.8 1.5 0.0 373
TMG Holding TMGH.CA Buy 9.90 0.0 11.5 11.00 13.5 12.8 14.5 13.4 0.7 1.5 1153
Vukile Property Fund Ltd VKEJ.J Hold 20.35 1.6 9.2 20.00 14.0 12.1 11.1 12.8 1.1 0.0 1024
Telecommunication Services
Digi Communications DIGI.BX Hold 35.00 0.5 -10.5 41.00 4.9 4.8 19.2 13.7 8.5 0.0 898
Etisalat ETEL.AD Sell 16.40 0.0 -12.8 15.10 5.7 5.5 13.8 13.4 3.1 5.6 38831
MegaFon MFONq.L Buy 9.65 -2.0 2.1 15.50 4.6 4.4 13.4 11.1 2.4 6.2 5372
Mobily 7020.SE Sell 13.34 -0.3 -44.4 12.00 5.3 5.0 na na 0.7 0.0 2739
MTN Group MTNJ.J Buy 129 0.6 2.7 136.00 6.7 6.2 28.5 19.9 2.1 5.4 16990
MTS MBT.N Buy 10.37 -1.1 13.8 12.80 5.1 4.8 10.2 10.6 7.9 8.7 10142
Ooredoo Group ORDS.QA Hold 79.90 -0.1 -21.5 107.00 3.8 3.4 12.6 10.7 1.1 5.0 7029Ooredoo Oman ORDS.OM Buy 0.54 -0.7 -18.8 1.15 1.9 na 7.4 na 1.4 9.3 906Saudi Telecom Company 7010.SE Buy 68.80 0.0 -5.1 80.00 5.1 5.0 12.9 13.5 2.2 5.8 36691Telecom Egypt ETEL.CA Buy 13.40 0.0 17.8 16.90 6.2 5.4 7.4 6.3 0.7 7.5 1291Telkom SA Ltd TKGJ.J Hold 49.56 2.1 -32.8 49.00 2.8 3.3 9.2 9.1 0.9 8.5 1863Turk Telekom TTKOM.IS Hold 5.69 8.1 -3.5 6.00 4.9 4.3 12.3 8.5 4.0 0.0 5056Turkcell TCELL.IS Buy 15.21 4.4 39.7 17.10 6.8 5.9 12.6 10.3 2.3 9.3 8469Vodacom VODJ.J Buy 145 -0.4 -4.6 163.00 7.5 7.3 17.3 16.4 8.9 5.5 15582
UtilitiesCEZ CEZP.PR Buy 491 1.2 36.2 500.00 7.8 7.6 13.4 18.2 1.0 6.7 12240Qatar Electricity & Water QEWC.QA Hold 162 -4.7 -28.7 215.00 12.2 11.7 12.0 10.8 2.0 4.6 4894
EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA for Banks has been replaced by ROE The Daily and YTD % Price changes refer to the change in US dollar value of the stock Source: Deutsche Bank, Companies
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Latam valuation 11/30/17 Daily YTD Price P/BV (x) Div Yld % (US$ m)Company Ticker Rating Price Change % Change % Target 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2017E Mkt Cap
Banks
Banco de Chile BCH.N Hold 82.96 -0.4 17.8 87.00 19.4 19.3 16.1 15.0 2.9 3.9 13750
Banco do Brasil BBAS3.SA Buy 29.93 -5.4 6.1 41.00 11.7 12.4 7.1 6.1 0.9 3.5 26242
Bancolombia CIB.N Hold 38.61 -0.6 5.3 45.00 10.7 12.0 11.9 9.9 1.2 3.2 9284
Banorte GFNORTEO.MX Buy 109 -1.3 18.4 143.00 16.6 17.6 13.1 11.3 2.5 4.8 16262
Bladex BLX.N Hold 29.36 0.3 -0.3 25.00 8.5 9.3 13.1 11.6 1.1 5.3 1154
Bradesco BBD.N Hold 9.79 -2.9 12.4 8.00 15.6 18.0 9.9 9.0 1.7 3.3 59573
Credicorp BAP.N Buy 211 -1.2 36.9 242.00 19.4 18.9 14.6 12.7 2.5 4.9 16832
Itau Unibanco ITUB.N Hold 12.55 -3.2 22.1 11.00 20.0 21.0 11.1 9.8 2.1 5.4 81630
Santander Brasil BSBR.N Hold 8.75 -3.1 -1.6 8.00 12.4 16.2 12.6 11.1 1.9 5.9 32806
Santander Chile BSAC.N Hold 27.47 -2.0 25.6 29.00 18.7 18.2 16.2 15.5 2.7 3.9 12942
Santander Mexico BSMX.N Hold 8.30 0.0 15.4 10.00 15.7 15.6 11.8 10.9 1.8 4.2 11251
Consumer Discretionary
Arezzo&Co ARZZ3.SA Hold 46.21 -6.1 83.6 32.00 18.5 16.2 29.9 26.8 6.0 3.3 1256
B2W BTOW3.SA Hold 17.19 -3.8 67.8 16.50 13.6 11.1 na na 2.0 0.0 2423
Cia Hering HGTX3.SA Hold 25.39 -3.4 67.2 23.00 15.2 13.2 17.4 16.9 3.2 5.3 1253
Falabella FAL.SN Hold 5,423 -0.9 4.9 7,215.00 16.7 15.8 25.8 23.3 2.9 1.5 20372
Liverpool LIVEPOLC1.MX Buy 126 -2.6 -6.3 187.50 10.2 8.8 18.2 14.1 2.0 0.6 9100
Lojas Americanas LAME4.SA Hold 14.83 -5.2 -13.2 18.80 10.7 9.3 71.9 34.5 10.7 0.1 6514
Lojas Renner LREN3.SA Hold 33.93 -2.3 45.8 34.00 16.2 13.6 32.7 27.3 7.8 1.0 7383
Megacable MEGACPO.MX Buy 78.73 -0.4 25.7 94.00 9.2 8.4 17.1 15.2 2.8 2.1 3629
Multiplus MPLU3.SA Buy 34.86 -4.9 2.7 54.00 6.7 5.8 10.5 10.3 19.5 9.5 1731
Smiles Fidelidade SA SMLS3.SA Buy 75.00 -6.2 -19.0 97.00 12.0 10.9 11.7 13.0 10.8 8.1 2842
Consumer Staples
Almacenes Exito IMI.CN Buy 16,380 -0.1 9.6 23,400.00 6.8 6.3 33.8 20.9 0.8 1.3 2436
AmBev ABEV.N Hold 6.30 0.0 28.3 6.15 16.7 14.3 29.3 24.7 8.2 3.9 98934
Arca Continental AC.MX Hold 128 0.8 30.9 106.00 10.5 8.0 23.4 18.2 3.2 1.9 12077
BRF S.A. BRFS.N Hold 11.79 -3.0 -20.1 15.50 8.8 7.1 28.3 15.2 2.2 0.4 9420
CBD-GPA PCAR4.SA Buy 70.00 -2.9 27.3 114.00 7.8 7.1 33.9 25.4 2.3 0.4 5682
CCU CCU.N Hold 25.48 -2.0 21.4 25.00 10.2 9.3 25.1 21.7 2.6 2.3 4707
Cencosud CEN.SN Hold 1,586 0.4 -13.2 2,000.00 8.3 7.7 18.1 17.4 1.1 1.9 6958
Chedraui CHDRAUIB.MX Hold 36.28 -1.9 8.3 40.00 6.5 5.5 17.8 15.6 1.2 0.0 1876
Coca-Cola Femsa KOF.N Hold 68.46 -0.6 7.7 80.00 8.7 7.7 18.5 16.9 2.3 2.6 14382
Concha y Toro VCO.N Buy 34.05 -2.2 5.1 38.00 11.5 9.3 19.0 14.3 1.6 2.3 1272
Embotelladora Andina AKOb.N Buy 26.58 1.5 18.3 32.00 9.8 8.5 24.8 20.9 3.2 2.5 4193
Femsa FMX.N Buy 89.97 -0.5 18.1 114.00 9.3 7.7 22.5 19.5 2.6 1.5 32193
Gruma GRUMAB.MX Buy 231 -2.1 -2.7 310.00 8.5 7.7 14.6 13.4 2.4 1.2 5363
Grupo Bimbo BIMBOA.MX Buy 43.45 -2.3 2.4 58.00 9.6 7.9 27.5 20.0 3.2 0.7 10962
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico KIMBERA.MX Buy 33.32 -1.3 -1.1 41.00 13.6 12.1 24.1 20.4 15.5 4.7 5516
Minerva BEEF3.SA Buy 10.85 -1.6 -11.1 24.25 6.3 5.1 20.7 33.5 6.0 6.0 750
Natura NATU3.SA Hold 29.16 -3.8 26.1 26.50 10.1 8.9 32.7 26.1 9.4 0.9 3848
Soriana SORIANAB.MX Hold 40.52 1.0 -0.2 44.00 7.4 6.5 15.9 13.8 1.2 0.0 3912
Wal-Mart de Mexico WALMEX.MX Hold 43.92 -4.8 31.4 47.20 13.5 12.3 24.8 22.6 5.0 5.6 41137
Diversified Financials
B3 BVMF3.SA Buy 23.24 -2.6 40.2 28.00 17.9 15.1 25.5 20.8 0.7 1.3 14499
Bolsa Mexicana BOLSAA.MX Buy 31.97 -0.6 29.8 45.00 10.7 9.9 16.4 15.6 na 3.9 1017
Credito Real CREAL.MX Buy 27.32 -0.8 10.7 36.00 1.2 1.2 6.1 5.3 1.1 0.9 575
Gentera GENTERA.MX Hold 17.10 -3.3 -43.2 20.00 1.7 1.7 9.2 11.6 1.7 4.5 1489
Energy
Petrobras PETR4.SA Hold 15.38 -1.2 3.0 20.80 5.2 4.4 19.1 8.3 0.7 0.2 61388
Petrobras PETR3.SA Hold 15.95 -1.3 -6.3 20.80 6.2 5.3 19.7 8.5 1.1 0.1 91003
Industrials
Avianca Holdings S.A. AVH.N Buy 7.81 0.0 -19.0 11.00 16.8 16.0 5.9 5.7 5.9 2.5 7820
Azul S.A. AZUL.N Buy 26.06 0.0 21.2 31.00 25.2 20.7 78.4 57.4 11.8 0.0 8221
Copa Holdings, S.A. CPA.N Buy 134 -0.6 47.7 142.00 10.3 9.0 15.6 13.0 3.0 1.4 5692
Embraer ERJ.N Hold 19.14 -0.7 0.3 22.00 5.6 6.4 10.9 16.1 0.8 3.4 3541
GOL S.A. GOL.N Buy 8.53 -5.7 -37.4 11.00 10.0 9.0 76.8 92.6 na 0.2 2964
Grupo Aeromexico AEROMEX.MX Hold 31.78 -2.1 -9.9 35.00 8.2 5.6 na 9.2 1.6 0.0 1199
LATAM Airlines Group S.A. LTM.N Buy 12.65 -4.7 55.1 17.00 9.5 8.0 38.9 16.1 2.5 0.9 7671
Volaris VLRS.N Hold 9.28 0.0 -38.3 12.00 366.8 55.1 na 100.8 18.0 0.0 9390
Information Technology
Cielo CIEL3.SA Hold 22.90 -1.9 -18.3 26.00 12.8 12.0 15.9 15.2 4.0 1.0 19037
Insurance
Porto Seguro PSSA3.SA Buy 35.83 -4.8 32.6 38.00 na na 11.9 10.7 1.7 3.4 3543
Materials
Antofagasta PLC ANTO.L Sell 910 -0.5 47.9 800.00 6.6 6.6 17.6 18.2 1.7 3.3 12125
Cemex CX.N Buy 7.59 -2.4 -5.5 9.60 8.0 7.0 20.5 13.6 1.3 0.0 10886
Vale VALE.N Buy 10.70 -2.8 40.4 12.00 5.3 4.9 9.1 9.1 1.2 2.6 55369
Telecommunication Services
America Movil AMX.N Buy 17.10 -2.8 36.0 21.00 5.8 5.4 19.2 17.4 4.0 0.9 56348
Telefonica Brasil VIV.N Buy 14.56 -1.5 13.3 21.00 6.1 5.7 18.0 14.7 1.1 5.6 24587
TIM Participacoes TSU.N Buy 17.94 -4.1 53.0 22.00 4.9 4.4 26.8 19.2 1.5 0.5 8684
EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA for Banks has been replaced by ROE The Daily and YTD % Price changes refer to the change in US dollar value of the stock Source: Deutsche Bank, Companies
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Appendix1
Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr. Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com/equities under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Pascal Moura/Mairead Smith
Equity rating key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships
Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that investors buy the stock.
Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock
Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell.
Newly issued research recommendations and target prices supersede previously published research.
46 % 46 %
8 %37 % 32 %
18 %0
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Buy Hold Sell
Global Universe
Companies Covered Cos. w/ Banking Relationship
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Additional Information
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European Central Bank and by BaFin, Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority. United Kingdom: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank AG acting through its London Branch at Winchester House, 1 Great Winchester Street, London EC2N 2DB. Deutsche Bank AG in the United Kingdom is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority and Financial Conduct Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation are available on request. Hong Kong: Distributed by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch or Deutsche Securities Asia Limited. India: Prepared by Deutsche Equities India Private Limited (DEIPL) having CIN: U65990MH2002PTC137431 and registered office at 14th Floor, The Capital, C-70, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex Mumbai (India) 400051. Tel: + 91 22 7180 4444. It is registered by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) as a Stock broker bearing registration nos.: NSE (Capital Market Segment) - INB231196834, NSE (F&O Segment) INF231196834, NSE (Currency Derivatives Segment) INE231196834, BSE (Capital Market Segment) INB011196830; Merchant Banker bearing SEBI Registration no.: INM000010833 and Research Analyst bearing SEBI Registration no.: INH000001741. DEIPL may have received administrative warnings from the SEBI for breaches of Indian regulations. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) may have debt holdings or positions in the subject company. With regard to information on associates, please refer to the “Shareholdings” section in the Annual Report at: https://www.db.com/ir/en/annual-reports.htm. Japan: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Securities Inc.(DSI). Registration number - Registered as a financial instruments dealer by the Head of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No. 117. Member of associations: JSDA, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association and The Financial Futures Association of Japan. Commissions and risks involved in stock transactions - for stock transactions, we charge stock commissions and consumption tax by multiplying the transaction amount by the commission rate agreed with each customer. Stock transactions can lead to losses as a result of share price fluctuations and other factors. Transactions in foreign stocks can lead to additional losses stemming from foreign exchange fluctuations. We may also charge commissions and fees for certain categories of investment advice, products and services. Recommended investment strategies, products and services carry the risk of losses to principal and other losses as a result of changes in market and/or economic trends, and/or fluctuations in market value. Before deciding on the purchase of financial products and/or services, customers should carefully read the relevant disclosures, prospectuses and other documentation. "Moody's", "Standard & Poor's", and "Fitch" mentioned in this report are not registered credit rating agencies in Japan unless Japan or "Nippon" is specifically designated in the name of the entity. Reports on Japanese listed companies not written by analysts of DSI are written by Deutsche Bank Group's analysts with the coverage companies specified by DSI. Some of the foreign securities stated on this report are not disclosed according to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan. Target prices set by Deutsche Bank's equity analysts are based on a 12-month forecast period..
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Korea: Distributed by Deutsche Securities Korea Co. South Africa: Deutsche Bank AG Johannesburg is incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany (Branch Register Number in South Africa: 1998/003298/10). Singapore: This report is issued by Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch or Deutsche Securities Asia Limited, Singapore Branch (One Raffles Quay #18-00 South Tower Singapore 048583, +65 6423 8001), which may be contacted in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. Where this report is issued or promulgated by Deutsche Bank in Singapore to a person who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined in the applicable Singapore laws and regulations), they accept legal responsibility to such person for its contents. Taiwan: Information on securities/investments that trade in Taiwan is for your reference only. Readers should independently evaluate investment risks and are solely responsible for their investment decisions. Deutsche Bank research may not be distributed to the Taiwan public media or quoted or used by the Taiwan public media without written consent. Information on securities/instruments that do not trade in Taiwan is for informational purposes only and is not to be construed as a recommendation to trade in such securities/instruments. Deutsche Securities Asia Limited, Taipei Branch may not execute transactions for clients in these securities/instruments. Qatar: Deutsche Bank AG in the Qatar Financial Centre (registered no. 00032) is regulated by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority. Deutsche Bank AG - QFC Branch may undertake only the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing QFCRA license. Its principal place of business in the QFC: Qatar Financial Centre, Tower, West Bay, Level 5, PO Box 14928, Doha, Qatar. This information has been distributed by Deutsche Bank AG. Related financial products or services are only available only to Business Customers, as defined by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority. Russia: The information, interpretation and opinions submitted herein are not in the context of, and do not constitute, any appraisal or evaluation activity requiring a license in the Russian Federation. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia LLC Company (registered no. 07073-37) is regulated by the Capital Market Authority. Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia may undertake only the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing CMA license. Its principal place of business in Saudi Arabia: King Fahad Road, Al Olaya District, P.O. Box 301809, Faisaliah Tower - 17th Floor, 11372 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. United Arab Emirates: Deutsche Bank AG in the Dubai International Financial Centre (registered no. 00045) is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. Deutsche Bank AG - DIFC Branch may undertake only the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing DFSA license. Its principal place of business in the DIFC: Dubai International Financial Centre, The Gate Village, Building 5, PO Box 504902, Dubai, U.A.E. This information has been distributed by Deutsche Bank AG. Related financial products or services are available only to Professional Clients, as defined by the Dubai Financial Services Authority.
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Australia: Retail clients should obtain a copy of a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) relating to any financial product referred to in this report and consider the PDS before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. Please refer to Australia-specific research disclosures and related information at https://australia.db.com/australia/content/research-information.html Australia and New Zealand: This research is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act and New Zealand Financial Advisors Act, respectively. Additional information relative to securities, other financial products or issuers discussed in this report is available upon request. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published without Deutsche Bank's prior written consent. Copyright © 2017 Deutsche Bank AG
David Folkerts-Landau
Group Chief Economist and Global Head of Research
Raj Hindocha Global Chief Operating Officer
Research
Michael Spencer Head of APAC Research
Global Head of Economics
Steve Pollard Head of Americas Research
Global Head of Equity Research
Anthony Klarman Global Head of Debt Research
Paul Reynolds Head of EMEA
Equity Research
Dave Clark Head of APAC
Equity Research
Pam Finelli Global Head of
Equity Derivatives Research
Andreas Neubauer Head of Research - Germany
Spyros Mesomeris Global Head of Quantitative
and QIS Research
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