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PeakPeak
TroughTrough
Recovery
Recovery
Recessio
n
Recessio
n
PeakPeak
√ The term The term business cyclebusiness cycle refers refers
to the recurrent ups and downs in the to the recurrent ups and downs in the
level of economic activity, which level of economic activity, which
extend over several years. extend over several years.
√ √ Individual business cycles may Individual business cycles may
vary greatly in duration and intensity.vary greatly in duration and intensity.
√ √ All display a set of phases.All display a set of phases.
Business CyclesBusiness Cycles
THE BUSINESS CYCLETHE BUSINESS CYCLEPhases of the Business CyclePhases of the Business Cycle
PEAKPEAK
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Time
RECESSIONRECESSION TROUGHTROUGH RECOVERYRECOVERY
GROWTH
GROWTH
TREND
TREND
PEAKPEAK
Time
GROWTH
GROWTH
TREND
TREND
√ √ Peak or prosperity phase: Peak or prosperity phase: Real output in the economy is at a Real output in the economy is at a high levelhigh level Unemployment is low Unemployment is low Domestic output may be at its Domestic output may be at its capacitycapacity Inflation may be high.Inflation may be high.
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√ √ Contraction or recession phase:Contraction or recession phase: Real output is decreasing Real output is decreasing Unemployment rate is rising. Unemployment rate is rising. As contraction continues, inflation pressure fades.As contraction continues, inflation pressure fades. If the recession is prolonged, price may decline (deflation) If the recession is prolonged, price may decline (deflation) The government determinant for a recession is two The government determinant for a recession is two
consecutive quarters of declining output. consecutive quarters of declining output.
Lev
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Time
RECESSIONRECESSIONGRO
WTHGRO
WTH
TREND
TREND
Lev
el o
f b
usi
nes
s ac
tivi
ty
Time
TROUGHTROUGH
GROWTH
GROWTH
TREND
TREND
√ √ Trough or depression phase:Trough or depression phase: Lowest point of real GDPLowest point of real GDP Output and unemployment “bottom out”Output and unemployment “bottom out” This phase may be short-lived or prolongedThis phase may be short-lived or prolonged There is no precise decline in output at which a There is no precise decline in output at which a
serious recession becomes a depression. serious recession becomes a depression.
Lev
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Time
RECOVERYRECOVERY
GROWTH
GROWTH
TREND
TREND
√ √ Expansionary or recovery: Expansionary or recovery:
Real output in the economy is increasing Real output in the economy is increasing
Unemployment rate is decliningUnemployment rate is declining
The upswing part of the cycle. The upswing part of the cycle.
PeakPeak
TroughTrough
One cycleOne cycle
Recovery
Recovery
Rea
l GD
PR
eal G
DP
per
yea
rp
er y
ear
Recession
Recession
TimeTime
PeakPeak
Business Cycle-one cycle through 4 phasesBusiness Cycle-one cycle through 4 phasesBusiness Cycle-one cycle through 4 phasesBusiness Cycle-one cycle through 4 phases
Recessions since 1950 show that duration and Recessions since 1950 show that duration and depth are varied:depth are varied:
PeriodPeriod Duration in monthsDuration in months DepthDepth (decline in real GDP)
1953-541953-54 1010 — 3.0%— 3.0%1957-581957-58 88 — 3.5%— 3.5%1960-611960-61 1010 — 1.0%— 1.0%1969-701969-70 1111 — 1.1%— 1.1%1973-751973-75 1616 — 4.3%— 4.3%19801980 6 6 — 3.4%— 3.4%1981-821981-82 1616 — 2.6%— 2.6%1990-911990-91 88 — 2.6%— 2.6%20012001 88 app. —3.3% app. —3.3%
• • The Leading Indicator SystemThe Leading Indicator System… … provides a basis for monitoring the provides a basis for monitoring the
tendency to move from one phase to the next.tendency to move from one phase to the next.……assesses the strengths and weaknesses in the assesses the strengths and weaknesses in the
economy economy … … gives clues to a quickening or slowing of gives clues to a quickening or slowing of
future rates of economic growth future rates of economic growth … … indicates the cyclical turning points in indicates the cyclical turning points in
moving from the upward expansion to the downward moving from the upward expansion to the downward recession, and from the recession to the upward recession, and from the recession to the upward recovery.recovery.
How Indicators Monitor the How Indicators Monitor the Four Phases of the Business CycleFour Phases of the Business Cycle
How Indicators Monitor the How Indicators Monitor the Four Phases of the Business CycleFour Phases of the Business Cycle
Innovation Innovation
Political eventsPolitical events
Random eventsRandom events
Wars Wars
Level of consumer spendingLevel of consumer spending
Seasonal fluctuationsSeasonal fluctuations
Cyclical Impacts — durable and non durableCyclical Impacts — durable and non durable
Causes of FluctuationsCauses of FluctuationsCauses of FluctuationsCauses of Fluctuations
An Actual Business CycleAn Actual Business Cycle1981 - 1990 ($ billion, 1992 dollars)1981 - 1990 ($ billion, 1992 dollars)
An Actual Business CycleAn Actual Business Cycle1981 - 1990 ($ billion, 1992 dollars)1981 - 1990 ($ billion, 1992 dollars)
Real GDP
PeakPeak
PeakPeak
TroughTrough
One CycleOne Cycle
‘80 ‘85 ‘90
4600
5200
6000
82
The Great DepressionThe Great Depression
The Great Depression [continued]The Great Depression [continued]
Great Depression StatsGreat Depression Stats
Ave. Unemployment Rate, 1925-1928Ave. Unemployment Rate, 1925-1928
Ave. Unemployment Rate, 1929-1933Ave. Unemployment Rate, 1929-1933
Percent Decrease in Prices, 1929-1932Percent Decrease in Prices, 1929-1932
Global Depression, 1929-1932Global Depression, 1929-1932
Six Million “Rosie the Riveters”Six Million “Rosie the Riveters”
World War II Production of these items brought us out World War II Production of these items brought us out of the Great Depression.of the Great Depression.300,000 warplanes300,000 warplanes124,000 ships124,000 ships289,000 combat vehicles and tanks289,000 combat vehicles and tanks36 billion yards of cotton goods36 billion yards of cotton goods41 billion rounds of ammunition41 billion rounds of ammunition2.4 million military trucks2.4 million military trucks111,527 tank guns and howitzers111,527 tank guns and howitzers
•$288 billion$288 billion was spent on the war, was spent on the war, •$100$100 billion in the first six months. billion in the first six months.
Unemployment hit an all-time low of Unemployment hit an all-time low of 1.2%1.2% and personal savings were 25.5%. and personal savings were 25.5%.