Assessing current vulnerability

Winter School 2010

Why is the vulnerability angle important?

Climate impacts do and will differ:• For different people (individuals, households,

communities)• For different sectors (health, industry, agriculture,

fisheries, natural resources)• In different areas (villages, towns, cities, districts)• At different times (present, next 10 years, next 50 years)

Because:• The specific climatic stresses and shocks experienced

may differ• In a single area, some livelihoods will be affected while

others might not• People’s responses will differ – coping & adaptation

We therefore need to answer questions such as:

• Who (or what) is vulnerable?• To what are they vulnerable? • Why are they vulnerable?• What can be done to lessen this

vulnerability?

A general definition which provides a useful starting point:

Vulnerability is the degree to which an exposure unit is susceptible to harm caused by a climate stress or shock; and this susceptibility is affected by:

• Their level of exposure • Their ability to cope and recover• Their ability to adapt

Where…

• an exposure unit could be a demographic group (women, elderly, children under 5 years), a social or spatial group (household, community, district), an economic group (livelihood, sector), or a biophysical entity (fish population, grassland ecosystem).

• stresses are persistent conditions that have negative impacts and slow onset disaster events

• shocks are sudden onset events with a distinguishable beginning and end

• exposure is the likelihood of the stress or shock being experienced

• to cope is to engage in practices that enables one to live with the impacts

• to recover is to restore or replace that which was lost or damaged during the event (including non-tangible entities) so as to return to the same state as before the event

• to adapt is to change in a way that lowers susceptibility to harm from similar events in the future

Information sources• sectoral analyses completed by various government

agencies• local vulnerability studies undertaken by NGOs, UN

agencies, etc.• academic studies on vulnerability to climate stress,

livelihood issues, climate change impacts, etc.• socio-economic data on disaster impacts, etc.• National Communications and NAPA documents• Web portals providing data and/or info on vulnerability

indicators and assessments (e.g. FEWSNET)

Exposure-sensitivity matrix

A structured approach to exploring:• Which livelihood groups are most

vulnerable to different types of climatic hazards

• Which ecosystem services are highly impacted by climate hazards

One of many vulnerability assessment methods – use in a participatory process with stakeholders

Exercise

Develop a matrix for your case study• Rows = exposure units (livelihoods and

ecosystem goods & services) that are exposed and impacted by various climate hazards

• Columns = climatic events and stresses that are important to consider in the context being studied (to be explored further using the climate data)

Instructions

• List prevalent livelihood activities and/or ecosystem goods & services in your case study area – for today just choose 4

• List climatic threats experienced in your case study area – for today just choose 4

• Rank each climate threat against each LA/EG&S scoring them in terms of extent of impacts – for today simply use high (H), medium (M), low (L)

Discussion

• Challenges of evaluating vulnerability• Other methods / approaches that could be

used to supplement this information and flesh out vulnerability profiles

• Benefits and limitations of quantitative versus qualitative information on vulnerability

• How might identifying key livelihood activities and ecosystem services help in addressing climate change?