ANTICIPATE CONSUMER BEHAVIOR DURING AND AFTER COVID-19€¦ · Canned Citrus. Canned Soup. Packaged Cookies. 39%. 40% 48%. 41% +7.9ppts. Canned Meats. Annual HH . Penetration Growth

Katie Denis, Senior Director, Industry Narrative, CBAJoan Driggs, VP, Thought Leadership, IRILarry Levin, EVP, Market & Shopper Intelligence, IRI

April 21, 2020

ANTICIPATE CONSUMER BEHAVIOR DURING AND AFTER COVID-19

Learning From Past Crises and Countries That Came First

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2

Joan DriggsVice President

Thought Leadership

Larry LevinExecutive Vice President

Market & Shopper Intelligence

Katie DenisSenior Director

Industry Narrative

Today’s Presenters





How an Evolving Consumer Outlook Will Impact Current and Likely Future Behavior

Visit IRI’s COVID-19 Insights Portal andCOVID-19 Dashboard for more reports and updates.

To Create This Report, IRI Leveraged Data and Analytics from Various Proprietary Retail, Market, Consumer and Shopper Assets, Including:• IRI Point-of-Sale Data, including Daily Chain POS Data • IRI E-Market Insights®

• Shopper Basket Analysis from IRI Consumer Network™ Panel and Weekly Consumer Panel Solutions

• IRI Weekly Pulse Surveys • IRI Multi Outlet, Total Store Fresh Model

Consumer Sentiment

From the Past, Into the Future

Purchase and Shopper Behavior

https://www.iriworldwide.com/en-US/Insights/Publications/coronavirus-impact-to-CPG-and-retail

https://advantage.iriworldwide.com/Engineering/covid19/


Where Are We Today?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/26/unemployment-claims-coronavirus-3-million; / https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Biggest jump in new jobless claims in U.S. history. Economists warn more than 40MM Americans

could lose their jobs by the end of April.

~2.5MMglobal COVID-19

cases

>770,000U.S. COVID-19 cases

~22MMAmericans have

filed for unemployment

$1,200CARES stimulus

checks went out April 9

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/26/unemployment-claims-coronavirus-3-million



49% 49%40%

36% 39%44%

13% 11% 15%

3/20-3/22 3/27-3/29 4/3-4/5

Q13. How long do you expect the economic impact of coronavirus to last, before the economy recovers? Please select your best estimate based on your own opinion as of today. Q12. How long do you expect this health crisis to last before health concerns return to normal?

Expected Duration of Health Crisis

12% 11% 8%

30% 31%27%

57% 57%65%

3/20-3/22 3/27-3/29 4/3-4/5

More than 6 months

3-6 months

Less than 3 months

Expected Duration of Economic Impact

>60%Consumers Are Adjusting Their Expectations, With 60% Now Believing the Health Crisis Will Last 3+ More Months

Source: IRI Weekly Surveys among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers

believe the economic impact

will last over 6 months

48%of Americans think

the U.S. is not doing enough to respond

to COVID-19 (up from 34% 2 weeks ago)


20%15% 13% 11% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7%

13% 14%

18% 27%25%

23%20% 19% 18% 18% 17%

20% 20%

Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Wave 23/20-3/22

Wave 33/27-3/29

A lot worse off A little worse off

On March 16, the Dow lost 2,997.10 points to close at 20,188.52. That day’s point plummet and

12.93% freefall topped the original October 1929 Black Monday slide of 12.8% for one session.

38%42%

38%34%

29% 27%26% 26% 24%

33% 34%

By March 31, More Than 1 in 3 Americans Experienced a Downturn in Personal Finances; The Worst Levels Since 2012Financial Situation Worse Now vs. YAG

E2. How would you describe your current financial situation vs. a year ago? Select one.


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Buy less fresh produce, as is more expenisve

Buy fewer healthy produts, as are more expenisve

Give up my favorite brands

Try lower-priced brands

Buy more private label

Buy fewer organic products, as are more expensive

Buy fewer prepared meals at grocery stores

Buy smaller quantities of favorite treats

Buying fewer individual serving pkgs

Cut back spending on non-essential groceries

As Consumers Contend With a New Economic Downturn, They Are Likely to Exhibit Behaviors Evident in Prior Recessions Behaviors During 2008 Recession: % of Respondents

Source: IRI AttitudeLink™ Survey of 1,000 Consumers, August 2008

Buy less fresh produce, as is more expensive

Buy fewer healthy products, as are more expensive


Historically, CPG Manufacturers Have Seen a Positive Boon in Sales in Times of Crisis Due to Stockpiling BehaviorStockpiling Behaviors Across Key CPG Categories

Examples of localized crises include Hurricane Irma in Florida and Hurricane Harvey in Texas in 2017.

As illustrated by these events, stockpiling occurred across three different types of products:

• Normal Purchases Lend themselves well to stockpiling – e.g., canned meat, canned vegetables, canned soups, toilet tissue

• New PurchasesWell suited for stockpiling – e.g., canned citrus fruit

• Longer Shelf-Life IndulgencesMaintains variety and enjoyment – e.g., packaged cookies

Hurricane Irma Impact on Select CPG Categories*similar behavior was observed during Hurricane Harvey

4 weeks % Chg. Vs. YA

Source: IRI POS Data, 4 Weeks Ending 12-03-17, Florida MULO+C. IRI Growth Consulting

IRMA HARVEY


Clear Stockpiling Demand Spikes Occurred Across Categories, Followed by a Typical Trail Off of Shoppers

Household Penetration Increases in the Moment, but That Growth Tends to Evaporate in the Long Term Hurricane Irma Impact on Select CPG Categories | Stockpiling Behaviors Across Key CPG Categories | Quarterly % HH Penetration

12 Weeks Ending

Hurricane Period

11% 10% 13% 11%

+2.5ppts

25% 21% 35% 33%

+14.4ppts.

79% 79% 81% 82%

May 21, 2017 Nov. 5, 2017Aug. 13, 2017 Jan. 28, 2018

+2.0ppts.

Canned Citrus

Canned Soup

Packaged Cookies

39% 40% 48% 41%

+7.9ppts.

Canned Meats

Annual HH Penetration Growth

(% Chg CY 2018 v 2017)

-3.0ppts

-4.4ppts

-0.1ppts

-2.8ppts

Despite a short-term boon to sales, these

categories still saw long-term

penetration declines

Source: IRI Panel Data, 12 Weeks Ending 01-28-18, Florida All Outlets. IRI Growth Consulting


COVID-19 Is a Crisis Like No Other

Social isolation

Jobs shifted to home –or worse: layoffs and furloughs

Closing of restaurants, bars and non-essential retail

While we can learn from past recessions and crises, COVID-19 is unique in that it has changed the day-to-day existence of nearly all.

Non-essential services are shut down

Extreme limits on business and leisure travel

No public entertainment or access to cultural venues

Schools are closed


More Than a Third of Consumers Will Spend CARES Stimulus Money on Groceries and Household EssentialsHousing, Food Among Top Plans for Money Received from Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act

to pay rent, mortgage, taxes or utilities

48%

to buy household items; clothing

10%to pay healthcare

bills; caregiver expenses

12%

to buy more groceries and other everyday

HH essentials

35%to add to my savings

or investment accounts

40%

Source: IRI Survey 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers / Total Wave 5 – April 10-12. / Base 653Q. What are the main ways you expect to use the money you receive from the government stimulus / economic relief plan?

60% expect to receive stimulus money30% aren't sure if they'll receive money10% don't anticipate receiving money


Working From Home Will Become the Norm for More Americans25% Are Working From Home More Often Rather Than Going to an Office Due to COVID-19

After Stay-at-Home Restrictions End, Those Who Have Been Working from Home More Plan to:

Source: IRI Survey 4/10-4/12 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers

18%

19%63%

Return to my usual schedule for work location

Work from home much more often than I did before COVID-19

Work from home a little more often than I did before COVID-19


20%Report Making More Meals Using Packaged Prepared Foods or Frozen Foods

Meal Preparation Has Changed Dramatically in Response to Stay-at-Home Orders

% Meals Prepared at Home

Source: IRI Surveys fielded 4/3-4/5 among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers

39%Report Cooking from Scratch More Often

36%

11%

25%

12%

17%

18%

23%

59%

2 months ago Currently

91-100% of meals

81-90% of meals

71-80% of meals

70% of meals or less

In Response to COVID-19


Changes Consumers Made to Eating Habits Will Continue After the Crisis Abates

After Stay-at-Home Restrictions End, Those Who Made Changes Plan to…

Wait a FEW EXTRA WEEKS after restrictions end before returning to restaurantsWait a MONTH OR MOREafter restrictions end before returning to restaurants

43%

38%

Continue to create meals from scratchmore than before

55% Continue to make coffee at home more than before

66%


65%Eating at Home More OftenInstead of at Restaurants

33%Creating More Meals

from Scratch

27%Making Coffee at Home More Often Instead of Going to Coffee Shops


c

Consumers’ Plans for Memorial Day Signal Lighter Demand for Summer Holiday Products Totals Do Not Equal 100 Due to Rounding


Will Likely Spend Memorial Day in a

Similar Way as Last Year

Don’t Know

Different Plans This Year Than Last Year

45%

23%

33%• 19% Hosted or Attended a Party Last Year

• 13% Traveled Last Year• 3% Other


c


Consumers Struggle Between Retailer and Brand LoyaltyMore Consumers Returning to Their Preferred Retailer: When faced with out-of-stocks at the onset of COVID-19, consumers went to other stores looking for those items. As consumers become accustomed to the new normal, they are returning to their retailers despite out-of-stocks.

Source: IRI Survey 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers. / Q. You mentioned that grocery or HH essentials were out-of-stock or unavailable when you recently tried to buy them. What did you do most often when something you wanted to buy was recently unavailable at your store/site?

Wave 1 TotalMarch 13 – 15 (609 base)

Wave 5 TotalApril 10 – 12 (1,001 base)

37% went to a different physical store and bought the item I wanted 30%

14% went online to order the item I wanted from an online retailer 17%

13% went back to that same retail location later to buy it when it was back in stock 26%

16% bought a different brand or variety instead, from the same retailer location 17%

Choices at the Shelf: At the onset of COVID-19, consumers reported nearly 3 categories they intended to shop were out of stock; today that number is 6.


of consumers who have been furloughed or laid off report

they have noticed price

increases

Shoppers Notice Price IncreasesFewer promotions, larger stock-up trips, buying different pack sizes and even buying different brands can all fuel consumer perceptions of higher prices.

41%

51%

61%67% 66%

Wav

e 2

Wav

e 3

Wav

e 4

Wav

e 5

Wav

e 1

76%Q. Consumers who agree with statement: I have seen prices increase because of the coronavirus.

Source: IRI Survey 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers. March 13-15 March 20-22 March 27-20 April 3-5 April 10-12;


c

Retailer Product Limits Dampen DemandQ. For items that were in-stock to buy, did you reduce the number of items you bought on any recent shopping occasion due to a retailer limiting the amount per shopper for certain items? % who responded: Yes, there was a purchase limit on certain items so I bought fewer than I wanted.

N/A

46%54%

60% 63%

Wav

e 1

Wav

e 2

Wav

e 3

Wav

e 4

Wav

e 5

Source: IRI Survey 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers. March 13-15 March 20-22 March 27-20 April 3-5 April 10-12;


Private Label is a Deliberate and a Default ChoiceSentiments Consistent from March to April; Percentages Who Agree Completely

chose Private Label in the past month because the brand they usually buy was unavailable

18%bought

Private Label products in

the past month to save money

20%

Source: IRI Survey 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers, April 10-12, 2020.


c


15% 18%

30% 21%

13%8%

10%

12%

23%32%

9% 9%

2019 2020

Downtrodden

Cautious and Worried

Start-UpsSavvy Shoppers

Optimistics

Carefree

Over Four in 10 Americans Are Now Cautious and Worried or Downtrodden as Consumers Struggle to Find Their Way in This Economic Downturn


Under $25K/year

$25K-$49.9K/year

$50K-$69.9K/year

$70K-$99.9K/year

$100K/year

18%12% 14% 11%

21% 25% 23%

22%20% 20%

19%

24%24% 26%

13%

10%15%

16%

14%11% 11%

16%

21%16%

18%

14% 12% 15%

32% 37% 35% 36%28% 28% 26%

Wave 2 TotalRespondents

Carefree Optimistics SavvyShoppers

Cautious andWorried

Start-Ups Downtrodden

Household Income Alone Is a Poor Predictor of What Differentiates and Drives the Economic Attitudes and Behaviors of ConsumersMore than one in four Start-Ups and Downtrodden have household incomes that exceed $100,000 per year.


While Over Six in 10 Americans Are Extremely Concerned About COVID-19, Downtrodden and Start-Ups’ Angst Is Exacerbated by Stock Market Worries

% EXTREMELY CONCERNED

63%

53% 55%60%

70% 72% 73%

29%

19%24% 25%

30%

50%

39%


Carefree Optimistics Savvy Shoppers Cautious andWorried


Corona Virus Stock Market


59%

48%54%

50%

61%

71%77%

33%

25% 27%

19%

33%

55% 58%

Total Respondents Carefree Optimistics Savvy Shoppers Cautious andWorried


I am more concerned about Coronavirus than I was last week (Wave Two)

I am more concerned about Coronavirus than I was last week (Wave Five)

% SAYING THEY ARE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS THIS WEEK THAN THEY WERE LAST WEEK

Overall, Fears Concerning Coronavirus Appear to Have Softened From Consumer Views’ of Their Concern From the Prior Week


39%

59%

80%



My household's income is at risk because of restrictions created to

curb the coronavirus

24%29%

35%



I’m working fewer hoursbecause of the

coronavirus

43%

71% 72% 68%


Start-Ups Cautious andWorrid

Downtrodden

My household includespeople who might be especiallysusceptible to the coronavirus

This Growing Concern About COVID-19 Among Start-Ups and Downtrodden Is Well-Founded, and Rooted in Harsh Economic and Health-related Realities


Start-Ups and Downtrodden Are Notably More Likely to Be Facing the Very Real Fear of Not Being Able to Afford Groceries

25%

15% 15%19%

28%34%

57%


Carefree SavvyShoppers

Optimistics Cautious andWorried


% AGREEING THAT MY HOUSEHOLD IS HAVING DIFFICULTY AFFORDING NEEDED GROCERIES


16%25% 18% 21%

9% 11%22%

44%

50%48% 44%

50% 42%

43%

40%25%

34% 35% 41% 48%35%


SavvyShoppers

Carefree Optimistics Start-Ups Cautious andWorried

Downtrodden

Over-reacted About right Not doing enough

RATING OF CURRENT OVERALL RESPONSEIN THE U.S. TO THE CORONAVIRUS

The Cautious and Worried and Start-Ups Are Most Critical of the Current U.S. Response to COVID-19

c



Large-Format Retail Food & Beverage Sales Accelerated Slightly in the Latest Week, Growing 27% vs. Year Ago; Nonedibles Continued to DecelerateDollar % Change vs. YA // Total U.S. MULO // TSV Model

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

02-23-20 03-15-2002-09-2002-02-20 02-16-20 03-22-2003-01-20 03-08-20 03-29-20

TotalStore

F&B

Non-edibles

04-05-20

6 month F&B growth benchmark (+2.2%)

% Chg. vs. Prior Week:Total Store: +6.9%F&B: +9.4%Nonedibles: +1.2%

April 15 ~500,000 have recovered from

COVID-19

March 12Dow Jones drops more than 10%, the biggest

drop since 1987

March 13CPG retail sales were 53% higher than the highest day in 2019

6 month Nonedibles growth benchmark (+0.9%)

Source: IRI TSV Model Note: Data reflected does not include Costco or Total eComm


Daily Sales Trends Highlight the Panic Stock-Up on March 12 and 13 and Subsequent Gradual Softening

March 13Largest shopping day of the year

200

0

100

02-2

7

02-2

5

03-1

5

02-2

4

03-2

4

02-2

6

02-2

802

-29

04-0

4

03-0

103

-02

03-0

3

03-2

2

03-1

6

03-0

403

-05

03-0

6

04-1

0

03-0

703

-08

04-0

2

03-0

903

-10

04-0

3

03-1

1

04-0

6

03-1

203

-13

03-1

4

03-1

7

03-2

1

03-1

803

-19

03-2

7

03-2

0

03-2

3

03-2

503

-26

03-2

803

-29

03-3

003

-31

04-0

1

04-0

5

04-0

704

-08

04-0

9

04-1

1

Sat./SunSat./SunSat./Sun Sat./Sun Sat./Sun Sat./Sun

March 11President Trump prime-

time speech, COVID-19 a global pandemic

March 12Dow Jones drops

over 10%; significant travel restrictions

implemented

Index of Average Daily SalesU.S. Grocery Retail

April 6 – April 11Total store sales are estimated to be

up 23% vs YAG due to consumers shopping for Food & Beverage during Easter week

Source: IRI proprietary models, U.S. grocery retail


Since March, More Grocery Spend Has Shifted From Weekends to WeekdaysShare of Spend on Weekends (% Spend on Saturdays and Sundays)

2-9-2020 2-16-2020 2-23-2020 3-1-2020 3-8-2020 3-15-2020 3-22-2020 3-29-2020 4-5-2020

Source: IRI proprietary models, U.S. grocery retail

35.9%32.1%

34.4%36.5%

33.3%31.5%

25.1%

29.8% 30.3%

High Grocery Spend Low Grocery Spend


c

F&B Trips Continued to Decelerate in the Latest Week Although Growth is Still Positive, While Dollars per Trip Rose% Change vs YA // All Outlets // National Consumer Panel

-100

1020304050

F&B

Mar-15

Nonedibles

2-Feb Feb-09 Mar-01Feb-16 Feb-23 Mar-08 Mar-22 Mar-29 Apr-05

-10-505

10152025 Edibles

Nonedibles

Feb-02

Feb-09

Feb-16

Feb-23

Mar-01

Mar-08

Mar-15

Mar-22

Mar-29

Apr-05

-10-505

101520

Feb-16

Edibles

Nonedibles

Feb-02 Feb-09 Feb-23 Mar-01 Mar-08 Mar-15 Mar-22 Apr-05Mar-29

Source: National Consumer Panel / Note: Data reflected does not include Costco or Total eComm

Trips % Change vs. YAG

$/Trip % Change vs. YAG

Units/Trip % Change vs. YAG


Pantry-Stocking Trips Rose After Dropping in the Prior Two Weeks; Other Trip Types Slowed Including Quick Trips Which is Negative in the Latest Week>70% of Consumers Report Buying Enough Groceries Their HH Needs For 2 Weeks or More

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

02-09-2002-02-20

QUICK TRIP

02-16-20 03-01-2002-23-20 03-08-20 03-15-20

FILL-IN

03-22-20 03-29-20 04-05-20

PANTRYSTOCKING

SPECIALPURPOSE

April 9Mailing of CARES stimulus

checks commences

April 742 states have “shelter

in place” orders

March 27President Trump signs

$2 trillion COVID-19 economic stimulus bill.

Source: National Consumer Panel / Note: Data reflected does not include Costco or Total eComm

Total Trips % Change vs YA by Trip Type // Total U.S. All Outlet // National Consumer Panel


LEGEND

Consumers Have Shifted From Stocking Up Across Total Store to Focused Purchases of F&B; Fill-ins Include Fresh and Frozen to Offset Pantry Items$ % Change vs. YAG - MULO Jan 6 to

Mar 1W/E

Mar 8W/E

Mar 15W/E

Mar 22 W/E

Mar 29W/E

Apr 5TOTAL STORE 1.4% 12.6% 67.9% 62.5% 15.5% 18.0%Total Nonedible 1.0% 19.6% 61.3% 43.0% 2.3% 0.3%Total F&B 1.6% 9.0% 71.4% 73.1% 22.6% 27.3%

Paper Products 2.9% 60.1% 212.7% 96.5% 40.2% 33.5%Home Care 3.5% 41.5% 103.6% 75.5% 21.7% 14.6%OTC Healthcare 5.1% 26.2% 73.6% 62.9% 6.1% -0.3%Personal Care 2.8% 19.8% 50.7% 35.8% -4.1% -5.8%Pet Food + Care 3.1% 7.5% 40.1% 37.5% -6.0% -6.0%Gen Merchandise -2.0% 7.5% 23.2% 21.1% 2.5% 5.1%Cosmetics -0.1% 4.1% 9.2% -4.7% -21.3% -15.4%

Beverage 2.1% 13.0% 60.1% 48.8% 8.3% 11.6%Packaged Food 1.1% 11.7% 87.6% 87.1% 25.3% 28.8%Alcohol 3.6% 8.7% 40.9% 56.8% 27.8% 36.7%

Baby Food + Care -3.1% 8.2% 65.3% 41.8% -18.8% -23.7%

Dairy 1.3% 5.6% 59.9% 59.9% 22.0% 31.2%Frozen Foods 1.9% 5.3% 82.2% 96.3% 32.9% 36.4%Fresh Foods 1.3% 5.0% 59.5% 63.6% 19.9% 23.8%

50%+

20% to 50%

10% to 20%

0% to 5%

-20% to 0%

5% to 10%

<-20%

NO

NED

IBLE

F&B

Source: IRI POS data Week Ending April 5, 2020 vs year ago


In 4 Weeks, Purchases Evolved from Pure Panic Stock-Up with Heavy Focus on Non-Foods to Meal Preparation Ingredients to Increased Focus on Comfort FoodsF&B Dollar % Change vs. YA // MULO // TSV – Top Growing Categories vs YA by Week

Week Ending 03/29/20

Flour/Meal 120.3%

Gloves 106.1%

Pancake Mixes 102.1%

Instant Potatoes 89.6%

Baking Mixes 89.2%

Premixed Cktl/Coolers 88.4%

Frosting 86.5%

Personal Therm 84.2%

Bkd Beans/Canned Brd 80.6%

Tomato Products 80.2%

Dry Beans/Veg 79.7%

Evap/Condensed Milk 78.9%

Pizza Products 77.1%

Baking Needs 74.0%

Dough/Biscuit Dgh - Rfg 72.7%



HH Cleaner Cloths 317.1%

Dry Beans/Veg 263.9%

Moist Towelettes 251.0%

Toilet Tissue 235.9%

Bleach 233.7%

Pasta 230.0%


Facial Tissue 213.9%

Soup 212.8%

Rice 209.7%

Vegetables - SS 206.8%

Seafood - SS 201.7%

Baby Wipes 197.5%







Pasta 212.7%

Dry Pkg Dinner Mixes 211.2%

Water Filters/Devices 210.3%


Dry Beans/Veg 209.1%


Flour/Meal 202.7%

Dinners - SS 201.3%

Soup 200.4%

Seafood - SS 188.4%

Spaghetti/Ital Sauce 180.2%

Non-Edibles Shelf-Stable Meal Components Baking/Indulgent


Flour/Meal 120.1%


Baking Mixes 94.9%

Baking Needs 89.4%


Gloves 85.0%

Evap/Condensed Milk 84.5%

Dough/Biscuit Dough - Rfg 80.3%


Syrup 74.4%

Dry Beans/Veg 72.7%

Butter/Butter Blend 71.0%

Sugar 69.3%

Popcorn/Popcorn Oil 68.7%


Source: IRI POS


Most of the Top Indulgent Categories Are Not Growing as Fast as F&B; Baking Categories Are Ranking High$ % Chg. vs. YAG – MULO – Top Indulgent Categories – 4 WE 04/05/20

BAKING MIXES

CARBONATED BEVERAGES

SALTY SNACKS38.0%

PASTRY/DOUGHNUTS

DOUGH/BISCUIT DOUGH - RFG

F&B

ICE CREAM/SHERBET

BAKING NEEDS

13.4%

37.5%

JELLIES/JAMS/HONEYAPPETIZERS/SNACK ROLLS - FZ

SPIRITS/LIQUORWINE

12.3%

106.5%

BEER/ALE/ALCOHOLIC CIDER

CHOCOLATE CANDY

COOKIESNOVELTIES - FZ

SNACK NUTS/SEEDS/CORN NUTS

48.4%

45.6%

92.9%83.8%

82.2%78.2%

17.1%

40.5%

35.8%33.0%

31.1%

11.7%

26.5%

15.8%

TEA/COFFEE - READY-TO-DRINKBAKERY SNACKSENERGY DRINKS

15.7%

NON-CHOCOLATE CANDY 5.6%

BAKING NEEDS

Source: IRI POS data – 4 Weeks Ending April 5, 2020 vs year ago

Chocolate Chips / Baking / Cocoa

101.0%Pizza Crust / Shell

89.2%Pie Filling52.1%

Marshmallow Cream45.1%

RTU Pie Crust42.8%Coconut20.0%


c

Perishables Like Meat Drove Growth Similar to Center-Store / Frozen as Meals Turned to At-HomeFresh foods retain the same share of total store sales with only service departments suffering. 17% of shoppers say they plan to buy more fresh foods during the pandemic; only 13% say they plan to buy less.

$ Sales % ChangeWE 04-05-20

Share of Total Store Sales WE 04-05-20

YTD 2020

Source: IRI Multi Outlet, Total Store Incl. Random-Weight (note: Deli excl. UPC 3rd party items); IRI Survey fielded 4/10-4/512, 2020, among National Consumer Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers

Fresh Deli*

2.4%

-22.5%

9.3%

27.1%

14.2%

31.3%

11.7%

41.2%

5.7%

-1.7%

6.4%

14.9%

6.8%

13.2%

11.6%

18.7%

0.6%

1.7%

3.4%

6.2%

7.5%

7.7%

7.8%

8.8%Fresh and Processed Meat

Beverages

Dairy

Fresh Produce

Refrigerated

Fresh and Packaged Bakery

Fresh Seafood

Dollar % Change vs. YA // Total U.S. MULO // TSV Model with Fresh

*Fresh Deli includes random weight lunch meat, deli cheese and deli prepared foods only.


The U.S. is Following the Italian Incidence Curve of COVID-19Panic phase in U.S. started Feb. 29-March 1; panic shopping peaked March 13. Number of deaths in the U.S. surpassed Italy on April 11.

Panic Phase Divergence phase New NormalOld Normal

Up to 3rd week of Feb 2020

From mid-May 2020

Feb19 Mar11 Apr04 Apr22 May13

1000

2000

3000

4000

New

pos

itive

ca

ses

ObservedPredicted

Italy

Source: EIEF


Online Channel Sales Doubled in the First Days of COVID-19 Exposure; Click and Collect Up 3-4x from Same Period in 2019CPG Sales % Change vs. Year Ago

Case Count

61%

87% 88%86%

205%

357%

277%

433%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

2/18 Tue

2k

3/5 Thu

98%

2k

5k

282%

109% 119%

3/3 Tue

1k 1k3k 3k

3/15 Sun

3/6 Fri

2/23 Sun

4k

6k

18k

7k9k

10k

12k

15k

3/12 Thu

21k

3/11 Wed

25k

2/20 Thu

2/17 Mon

2/19 Wed

2/21 Fri

2/22 Sat

2/24 Mon

2/25 Tue

2/26 Wed

3/10 Tue

2/27 Thu

2/28 Fri

2/29 Sat

3/1 Sun

3/2 Mon

3/4 Wed

3/7 Sat

3/8 Sun

3/9 Mon

3/13 Fri

3/14 Sat

Cases

OnlineClick and collectHome delivery

11 cities in Lombardia and Veneto are declared "Red zones" and locked down

All schools and universities across

Italy are closed down

Italy is declared Red zone –the next day all non-essential

activities are shut down

Italy

Source: IRI Panel online, Dates reflect Monday, 17 February through Sunday, 1 March, 2020


What’s Next? Drawing on Past Natural Disasters and Recessions, We Illustrate the Demand Trajectory Post Shelter-In-Place (SIP) and Into the New NormalForecasting in the Context of COVID-19ILLUSTRATIVE COVID-19 IMPACT ON A CPG CATEGORY

Pre COVID-19 Panic Buying Recover New Normal

+18.8%

+0.5% +2.8%

+6.6%

+3.4%

Average Annual YTD Pre-March March April-July 2020 Post-July


Adopting to a Post-COVID-19 World

Leverage LessonsLeverage lessons from other crises, including

hurricanes, recessions and global regions ahead of the U.S.

IRMA HARVEY

Recognize Uniqueness of COVID-19

While we can learn from the past, COVID-19 presents unique challenges

and opportunities.

Creating a New Normal

Most consumers anticipate their lives will be forever

changed; companies also have to decide what their

“new normal” will be.

Opportunities: Change now to prepare for future

Take this time to evaluate mission, assortment, relationships and go-to-market strategies. Plan now for the

future.


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THANKYOU!

For More Information, Contact Us…IRI Global Headquarters

150 North Clinton Street, Chicago, IL 60661-1416Email: [email protected]

+1 312.726.1221

Follow us on Twitter: @IRIworldwide

Consumer Brands Association1001 19th St N, Arlington, VA 2220

Email: [email protected] +1 571.378.6760

Follow us on Twitter: @ConsumerBrands

mailto:[email protected]

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Documents

ANTICIPATE CONSUMER BEHAVIOR DURING AND AFTER COVID-19€¦ · Canned Citrus. Canned Soup. Packaged Cookies. 39%. 40% 48%. 41% +7.9ppts. Canned Meats. Annual HH . Penetration Growth