Hello again, and welcome to a post Cheltenham editionof WRWM. Well, what have we got for you this month?

Bet exchange poker – here’s a couple of strategies youcan use on the exchanges – dip in at any time of the dayor night, and hopefully secure those “green screens”where you’re in profit.

We’ll also be covering fixed odds football and howthe use of multiple bets, via permutations, can help giveyou the edge. I’ve found a system which is the equivalentof the HTB for football, it may prove its worth long term.We also lock horns with a footy tipster to avoid – thanksto feedback from a WRWM reader who forked out hishard earned only to be left with 3 winning bets out of 32– hmmmm!

What else? Ah yes, find out how you can benefit frombacking 2 or more horses in a race, and still profit – it’sall down to dutching! Al Capone’s accountant used it, I’llshow you how you can too.

Isiris – a better month than January, and that was to beexpected in all honesty – if they’d have performed asbadly for the 2nd month in a row, I would have serious

concerns. Find out how they’re progressing, along withthe lay systems I reviewed last time (the losers areflooding in!)

Oh yes, did you spot the not-so-deliberate mistake lastmonth? Our glowing review of The Sports Statisticianwas slightly marred by the pricing info – you probablythought it was a little expensive at £37 a month. The goodnews is it is only £37 a year! Go to www.oxonpress.com.

Now let’s kick off with a lovely little loophole...

Free Betting Strategy Revealed!

How a simple hedge canhelp you triple a £100betting bank in 30 daysusing the bookies’ freemoney offers!

With the increasingly competitive online marketbetween Bookmakers, a large number are

making surprisingly generous offers to lure puntersinto opening new accounts.

OK, here’s how to make that free betwork for you

The majority of these promotions consist of a deal thatif you place a first bet of £25 through their site then theywill give you another £25 bet free. Sounds good, butthere’s a catch. Some bookmakers won’t allow you totake the free money out. Even if you were to place awinning bet with them you could take out the winningsbut would not get the free stake back. On the face of itthis makes these deals less attractive.

Betfair to the rescue again! The ability to lay on the betting exchanges can

provide the perfect way to exploit and profit from theseconcessions. Laying the same horse that you back atsimilar odds can provide you with insurance for thewinning bet you place with your free money.

Let me explain. Use your free bet to back a horse atthe bookmakers that you think WILL LOSE! You are, inreality, using your free bet as insurance if the horse youhave laid actually wins (remember, laying a horse meansyou are looking for it to lose).

You place an insurance bet to win on a horse you

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What Really Wins MoneyAn Independent review of tipsters and betting systems

March 2006

IN THIS ISSUE:

Free Betting Strategy Revealed! How a simple hedge

can help you triple a £100 betting bank in 30 days using

the bookies’ free money offers! .................................page 1

Tipsters and Systems Update After a poor January, Isiris

is back on track and £2,000 in profit! Plus the latest results

from a fistful of tipsters, RTDO and Lay Systems...page 2

Betting Strategy: How to make smash and grab profits

from BetExchange Poker!..........................................page 3

Betting Strategy Uncovered: Dutching How Al

Capone’s book-keeper can help you to back 2 or more

outcomes for profit! ....................................................page 7

Special Focus: Why you don’t need a risky accumulator

to make good money from fixed odds football bets........

.....................................................................................page 9

IMPORTANT NEWS FROM THE PUBLISHER!

How to Turn FREE Info Hidden in Your Local Council’s

Planning Office into a £25,000 – £79,500 Part-Time Sales

Lead Brokerage Business.........................................page 12

WRWM_Mar06-1.qxd 22/3/06 09:42 Page 1

think will lose and then pick up the money from layingthe horse to lose on the Exchange. In effect, you arebeing offered free insurance on your lays. What’s moreyou are receiving the cost of insurance premium in thereturns of the lay. It follows therefore that if you get afree insurance policy worth £25 you should be able toconvert that to cash when the horse loses the race and youpick up the returns from the lay.

Let me give you a real life example:

An Irish bookmaker was offering a free bet for £25 ifI placed a bet for £25 through them. In odds terms theywere not a good value bookmaker. However I reckonedthat I could safely free up about £20 of the £25 on offerwithout taking a risk. So, on Day 1, I placed a £25 bet onhorse A at odds of 13/1. I laid this bet at odds of 13.5which on the face of it would make a loss if the horsewon. If Horse A won I would get a return of £300 butwould pay out £312 on the lay making a £12 loss. IfHorse A lost I would make £25 on the lay which was thesame as the cost of the bet, so I would be in a win-winsituation.

Horse A lost and I break even. However I was nowentitled to a free £25 bet the next day.

On Day 2 I placed the free £25 bet on Horse B at oddsof 16/1. I placed a lay at 16 to the value of £20. Myliability (the amount I will lose if this horse wins is£300). If Horse B won I would get £300 back from thebookie less £300 cost of the lay. If Horse B lost I wouldget £20 from the lay. I had no deductions as the insurancebet was free. Horse B lost. After charges on thesetransactions I made £18.10 profit from the free bet offer.

I could take this out of the Betting Exchange as cash ifwished to. I chose to leave it in.

These offers are obviously valuable coming at thebeginning of a period of capital growth. You could morethan triple your £100 betting bank in less than a month.

As you need to open accounts with bookmakersanyway, you may as well take what’s on offer. Be carefulto read the terms and conditions and beware of timelimits. To get your full value out of the offers you mayhave to bet more than you would normally. Howeverprovided you work out on paper the win/lose situationand adjust the lay amount to cover your losses in theevent of the horse winning this is effectively a no riskmoney-for-free offer!

How to open an account with Betfair: Betfair.Comis the Betting Exchange that I have used effectively forthe last 4 years. It is clear, easy to use and reliable and Ihave no hesitation in recommending it. Currently Betfairare offering £25 free to new customers who deposit fundsby debit or credit card. This offer is prevalent throughoutthe Cheltenham Festival week. If this offer remains, thengreat. If for any reason it is time limited, you are entitledto a free £20 by another method. Simply enter this code:7JCVGT6FL.

Where to find free bets: A great place to find thesefree cash incentives is to look at betting portals. Take alook at the following lists for some juicy incentiveschemes for first time customers:

www.british-shopping.com – look under gambling–online bookmakers

http://freebets.football-data.co.uk/100freebets.php – lookunder “best free bets”

http://www.racing-index.com/bookmakers/free-bets.html

http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/bookmakers.php

These four websites will serve as a perfectintroduction into bookmakers promotions andconcessions. A bit of searching will probably find more.There are some foreign bookmakers with similar offers,but please read their terms and conditions. Finally, aspecial thanks to the WRWM reader who tipped me off tothis - you know who you are!

Tipsters and Systems Update

After a poor January,Isiris is back on track and£2,000 in profit! Plus thelatest results from afistful of tipsters, RTDOand Lay Systems

Well February was a lot better than January – itcouldn’t get any worse surely?

Now before I start I must say I’m using the pricesadvised on the Isiris line, which are not necessarily theprices you may find at the bookmakers – weight of Isirismembers’ money backing at the same time seems to putpay to some of the bigger prices.

That said, having gone backward in January wemoved forwards and touched the £9,000 mark as ofFebruary 28th. This is more like it! The strike rate hasbeen poor with the each way selections which, while inmost instances not winning, did not even place, thuslosing our stake (if a 5/1 or higher horse backed each wayactually places, we more often than not get our stakesreturned.)

Boosted by 3 out of 3 on the 24th February whichswelled the coffers by £1,000, and England losing toScotland in the 6 Nations Rugby as a maximum bet, thebetting bank has been stabilised somewhat. Nearly £2,000profit despite the large number of eachway bets that wentastray is testament to the excellent staking plan. Myconfidence has been restored, although I still have aniggle about the prices as quoted on the tipping line andthe actual prices you can get in the live market beingmarkedly shorter. Let’s hope that the flat season bringsmore of the same.

And what about our 5 tipsters?• Nick Mordin: Well, Nick tipped 76 bets, 62 of which

lost and 14 winners, but managed a profit to level stakesfor the month. Using a base figure of £100, he realised

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£2,030 profit this month.

• Alex Gorrie tipped 77 bets, 33 winners and 44 losers, areturn of £1,080 to £100 stakes.

• The Sweeney had a shocking February: 80 bets, 61losers and 19 winners and an overall loss for the monthof £2,090 to £100 level stakes – ouch!

• The Winning Line took a more cautious approach totheir betting volume, selecting 12 bets, 6 of which wonand 6 lost, profiting for the 2nd successive month at£1,400 to £100 level stakes

• Henry Rix had a quiet February too with 5 bets, 2winning and 3 losing and would have made £50 profitto £100 levels stakes

Bottomline: The Winning Line still looks like the oneworth following.

More updates! The Results To Dream Of: There have been some

instances with recent selections where you would beadvised to just have a quick look at the race to determineif it is a “betting race”. Take recent selections He’s a Starand Wogan.

He’s a Star was a RTDO selection, but was running ina handicap race on the all weather. The market leader was7/2 and the outsider priced at 16/1, indicating a close knitrace. The RPR ratings of 8 of the horses was within 2 ofthe top rated horse. He’s a Star was also not the marketleader, but 5th in the betting at 8/1. All in all not a whollyconfident bet.

Similarly Wogan was a recent selection in a 17-runnerhandicap hurdle, priced at 6/1. The favourite was pricedat 9/2 and this had the look of an open race. Wogan, againwas not the market leader and was priced at 7/1. Withhorses of this price it is always advisable to back eachway, because if they are placed, at least our stakes arereturned.

A little bit of due diligence can weed out perhaps thelesser of the RTDO selections.

Fixed Odds Trader: With a current 55% strike rate,Fixed odds trader is not performing as its early resultshad promised. Wait for a return to form!

How have last month’s 3 lay systemsperformed?

I reviewed 3 laying systems recently. How are theyperforming? All are performing well, provided the stakingplans and rules are followed. Keeping our lays to 5/1 orless helps control liability.

• The Ultimate Horse Racing Laying System (£24.94 atwww.horselayingsystem.com/index.html) is thesimplest to follow and does give multiple selections dayby day – 5 winning horses since I began my test augurswell. But using the rule of not backing over 5/1selections (6.00 on the betting exchanges) means thatwe have missed a large number of bigger priced losers.Liability control using 5% of your betting bank and notthe stake is very sensible and ensures continuous dailyprofits, albeit slow but steady.

• The Lay Betting Selection System (£10.95 fromnick_thesaint695@btopenworld.com) promises astrike rate of 95%, but how has it performed? Againusing our criteria of choosing the selections with thebiggest qualifying points, under 5/1 we have had 33winning laying bets and 3 losing bets at 6/4, 3/1 and4/1. A 91% strike rate and a profit!

• Laying 4 Profit (£55 by emailinglayingforprofits@yahoo.com) does produce multipleselections per day, but we are ahead here. If you alsopay attention to the unique approaches to liabilitycontrol, and implement them, long term profit isassured.

Want more updates? Then sign up to the WRWMweekly e-letter! Every Friday you’ll find the latest newson the tipsters and systems featured in the pages ofWRWM. And guess what? It’s free! Just email tco-services@dial.pipex.com with your name and postcodeand they will update your records.

Betting Strategy Revealed

How to make smash andgrab profits fromBetExchange Poker!

Take a visit to www.betfairgames.com and you’llfind betfair poker and betfair blackjack. For the

purposes of this article we’ll be concentrating on betexchange poker. Bet exchange poker is traditionaltexas hold’em with a twist – rather than play againstother people, you’re playing against the betfair botswho determine the odds of each hand after eachdeal. There are 4 hands in this game: you have 4opportunities to back and 4 opportunities to lay – 1for each hand. Texas Hold Em has 5 stages:

THE 5 STAGES.1. THE DEAL (fig 1 on page 4)

This is the stage before any cards are dealt.

2. THE PREFLOP (fig 2) – 2 cards are dealt for Hands1 to 4 and the site software assesses the strength of thehands at this stage, and reflects that in the odds.

3. THE FLOP (fig 3) – 3 ‘universal’ cards are dealtwhich compliment all hands. Again, the site softwareassesses the chances of each hand with this newinformation and shorten or lengthen the odds accordingly.

4. THE TURN (fig 4) – another card is added which isuniversally applicable to all hands. The site softwaredetermines at this stage that Hand 3 looks the strongestwith ‘Two pairs, Ten and Seven, Six High’

5. THE RIVER (fig 5) – One final card is dealt. Hand 4wins ‘Straight, Seven High’

One thing of note is the huge fluctuation of oddsbetween each hand. On the ‘turn’, the odds were telling

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Fig 1: The Deal

Fig 4: The Turn

Fig 5: The River

Fig 2: The Preflop

Fig 3: The Flop

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us that surely Hand 3 would win, but this was not thecase. So, in order to profit from Bet Exchange Poker,conventional gambling on the shortest price hand will not work.

Back high and lay low is the secret toprofiting

The best way to exploit this unique game is throughtrading the price movements. Because of the uniqueposition we are in of being able to back hands and layhands, we can trade in the traditional way, (as we didwith the football trading), by backing high and laying

low.

Strategy 1: Involve all the cards In order to make use of trading in this context, I think

it is important to involve all 4 hands in our betting. Thisgives us the flexibility to cut our losses if things goagainst us.

In a worst-case scenario, if the cards go against us, wecan trade any or all of our hands to minimize our lossesby backing and laying as appropriate.

STEP 1: Our first point of focus is the PreFlop stageof the game. Here we are looking to back the hands with

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Fig 6

Fig 7

Fig 8

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the highest odds and lay the hands with the lowest odds –all to the same stake eg: £2.

TIP#1 – ideally the 3 hands with the lowest oddsshould be closely matched. Let me take an actual game asan example.

As you can see in Fig 6 the odds are closely matchedbetween the 3 shortest priced hands. The biggest pricedhands are hands 2 and 4, so I have backed them for £5stake. The shortest priced hands are 1 and 3 which I havelaid for a £5 stake.

THE FLOP (fig 7) As luck would have it, (alas, luckplays a big part in this game), the odds of the hands welaid have increased dramatically and the odds of thehands we backed have reduced dramatically. What aresult! Hands 1 & 3 are still showing liabilities which wehave to get rid of. So I back hand 1 for £2 and back hand3 for £2. This will leave us with a profit on all hands andour work is done.

TIP#2 – ALWAYS try to get your liability (theyappear as red figures on the screen) either reduced orturned into profit as quickly as possible.

TIP#3 – Next to the View p/l button on the top lefthand side of the screen click on the [settings] button andtick all boxes bar the gamcare box. This will enable youto see your profit/loss on the screen and help you todetermine how much to back or lay.

How else could you profit from this hand?We could lay hand 4. Remember we backed it at the

pre-flop stage at 5.18 for £5 giving us a profit of £25.25on this hand. Now the odds have reduced dramatically to1.59. (Remember if odds drop, then the perceived chanceof winning increases.). We still have the small matter of -£19 and -£14 to deal with. We could lay hand 4 asfollows.

LAY HAND 4 at 1.61 for £20 . This will ‘cost’ you£12.20 from those potential winnings of £25.25 and leaveus with the following scenario:

HAND 1 -£19.90 +£20 = 10p profit

HAND 2 £23.89 + £20 = £43.89 profit.

HAND 3 -£14.25 + £20 = £5.75 profit

HAND 4 £25 – £12.20 = £12.80 profit

As you can see Hand 2 has £43.89 while hands 1 and3 have a far lower profit.

Because the odds of Hand 2 have reduced from the4.9 which we originally backed it, to 3.32, we are in aposition where we can take some of the £43 potentialwinnings and share it out amongst the other hands.

LAY HAND 2 at lay odds of 3.34 for £10 . This will costhand 2 £23 from its potential winnings and add £10 ontoHands 1, 3 and 4.

HAND 1 £10.10 profit

HAND 2 £20.89 profit

HAND 3 £15.75 profit

HAND 4 £22.80 profit

Now, regardless of which hand wins, we will win theabove amounts.

We can conclude, in this instance, that backing Hand 1and Hand 3 for £2 initially was the quickest way in whichto eliminate our liabilities and ensure we profit.

TIP #4 – The cards will not always produce the shiftin odds that we want in an ideal situation, so the abovetechniques can be used to reduce the figures in red toensure we fight another day.

Strategy 2: Back 2 hands for the samestake

This strategy involves the cards at the ‘deal’ stage andinvolves an element of luck. What we do here is back any2 hands for the same stake. Wait for the Preflop stage,and use the backing and laying techniques from Strategy1 to maximize winnings or minimize losses.

Here we are looking for the odds of the hands we havebacked at 3.98 to decrease, and the odds of the hands wehaven’t backed to increase ABOVE 3.98 to enable us tocreate a green screen (profit on all hands)

Can you follow the example set out? (see fig 8 onpage 5)

At the deal stage I backed Hands 1 and 2 for £5. Atthe preflop stage the odds for Hand 3 was not above 3.98,but the odds for Hand 4 were. On the right hand side ofthe screen you see that I backed Hand 3 for £6 andbacked hand 4 for £2.50 Our goal has been reached – allprofit. There are variations to this strategy: you couldback just one hand at the deal stage and HOPE that itsodds at the preflop stage have reduced.

TIP#5 – Although with both strategies I advocategetting out as quickly as possible, you could let the bets‘ride’ on to the Flop, Turn, and River stages, but you willbe at the behest of the turn of the cards. You may profitfar more if the odds fluctuate in your favour, OR you maylose more if the odds fluctuate against you.

BetEx Poker System Review –BISMARX POKER

Here’s a system introduced by Jon Dee ofbismarx.com which focuses solely on laying one handand hoping it doesn’t lose.

The system operates using progressive staking, a formof chasing losses. I don’t want to give away themechanics of the system, but Jon advocates laying onehand, and stopping if that hand loses (we have laid it, andso opposed it). If that hand wins, we must lay the nextqualifying hand to win back our previously lost stake andtarget profit. If that hand loses, we win and stop there.But if that hand wins, we do the same again.

I tried paper trading this system and found on numerousoccasions I had laid a qualifying hand which lost at the firsttime of asking. I did, however, reach a sequence of 4winning hands (where I lost because I had laid them) wherethe hypothetical stakes would have been uncomfortable.

What’s good? As long as the hand you lay loses andloses quickly, this is a good system to use and simple tooperate.

What’s not so good? Progressive staking is not for

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everyone. Should you reach a position where you havelaid 5 qualifying hands in a row and all of these 5 handshave won, you are looking at very big liabilities forrelatively small gain.

We have already seen the fluctuation of the odds. Ipersonally think that if I have laid a hand and its oddshave increased significantly, I can get out by trading (seeStrategy 1) rather than run the risk that the hand may winand I lose. As we have seen, the odds can change quickly,potentially losing hands can turn into winning hands onany of the 5 stages of the game, and if I were in theposition where I could guarantee a profit I’ll take it.

Bet exchange poker does not have any discernablepatterns to it. The winning hands are purely random.There is nothing stopping a sequence of hands we havechosen to lose, winning again and again. That said, in mytests at numerous times of the day and night, I wasimpressed by the amount of times I won on the first hand,peace of mind assured.

Although bet exchange poker is 24/7, this strategy, Iwould surmise, cannot be used constantly, hour afterhour. I think it is a great strategy for a smash and grabraid, taking a predetermined profit and running!

Betting Strategy Uncovered: Dutching

How Al Capone’s book-keeper can help you toback 2 or more outcomesfor profit!

When used selectively, this great strategy can bea real boon to your betting bank. Dutching is

the ability to back 2 or more outcomes and profit ifthey win. This was a favoured method of betting forAl Capone’s book-keeper, ‘Dutch’ Schultz, when hefancied a flutter. Thankfully it is completelylegitimate and allows us to create our own‘underround’.

You see, the bookmakers operate to what’s termed anoverround in all of the sports they price up, horseracingincluded. If you were to convert the odds of all horses ina particular race into percentages, they will add up togreater that 100%. Why? The bookmakers must make aprofit. Well, if the odds add up to exactly 100% we wouldbe able to back every horse in the race and break even.Punters have differing opinions and so bookmakers haveto factor in a profit in each race.

Let me show you an actual example:

Adecco 11/8

Clouding Over 2/1

Fantastic Arts 9/2

Cedar Rapids 9/1

Dramatic Quest 25/1

In order to translate odds to percentages we do thefollowing:

Adecco: 11 divided by 8 = 1.375 Add one = 2.375 Divide100 by 2.375 = 42.10%

Clouding Over: 2 divided by 1 = 2 Add one = 3 divide100 by 3 = 33.33%

Fantastic Arts: 9 divided by 2 = 4.5 Add one = 5.5 divideby 100 = 18.18%

Cedar Rapids: 9 divided by 1 = 9 Add one = 10 divide100 by 10 = 10%

Dramatic Quest: 25 divided by 1 = 25 Add one = 26 100divided by 26 = 3.85%

The total percentage in this race is 107.46%.

The odds will always add up to greater than 100% ifthe bookmaker is doing his job right, the % differenceabove 100% is his profit.

Help! There is a free odds to % calculator available athttp://www.bettingmad.com/calculator.asp which willhelp speed things along.

Profiting from the underroundIn order to make a profit, we need to create an

underround. That is, back those horses we fancy andleave the outsiders alone. Now using our example, let’ssee how we would dutch this race.

We can use the percentages here to determine thestrength of certain selections. Adecco takes up 42.10% ofthe market, closely followed by Clouding Over at33.33%. Added together, these 2 market leaders take up75.44% of the total percentage of 107.46%.

We could say that, together, these 2 horses have a near75% chance of winning, or more accurately 75/107.46 x100 = 70%.

If we were to look at this race from the Racing Post’sperspective, Spotlight has selected Adecco as its strongestbet of the day, but Clouding Over is being backed and hasreduced in odds from 3/1 to 2/1. Which horse do I chose?It looks like a 2 horse race.

I can back both and make a profit ifeither wins!

That’s right, if I use £1 =1% I could back Adecco for£42.10 and Clouding Over for £33.33, and make a profitof 100% – 42.10 – 33.33 = £24.56 or thereabouts if eitherhorse wins.

If Adecco wins: I win £42.10 x 11 divided by 8 (theodds) = £57.89. I must take away my £33.33 staked onClouding Over = £24.56 profit.

If Clouding Over wins (which he did in this race): Iwin £33.33 x 2 divided by 1(the odds) = £66.66. I musttake away the £42.10 staked on Adecco = £24.56 profit.

If any of the other 3 horses won this race, I would

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naturally have lost.

Hang on Clive! Isn’t Dutching the sameas laying?

Yes, it is exactly the same as laying! With laying, ifwe oppose one horse, we naturally have the other horsesrunning for us. I could have laid Fantastic Arts (the nextshortest priced horse in the field) at 9/2 and had all 4other horses running for me. But to win £25, my liabilitywould have been £110 (this is what I would lose ifFantastic Arts wins).

It is entirely your decision here. You have the‘insurance’ of the other 4 horses running when you layjust one horse. You have paid an extra £35 for theprivilege (backing Adecco and Clouding over to win thesame amount costs £75.44).

The 9 key race criteria for dutchingprofits

I’ve found that the best races to use dutching as astaking tool is when the following criteria are met:

1. Small field races such as the one in our example,with 2 strong market leaders, one of which is beingbacked and one of which is fancied by the pundits (inour example Clouding Over was being backed from3/1 to 2/1 and Adecco was fancied by Spotlight in theRacing Post). Look for races where there are 2 clearmarket rivals, say at 6/4 and 7/4, in the betting forecastwith the next horse at 5/1 or a big discrepancy in theodds. TIP – if the 2 market leaders are priced overevens, we can back them using the same stake andprofit if either wins

2. Avoid maiden races: races where horses haven’t won.There are too many imponderables here. Some horseswill have no comparative form, and really could beanything. Maiden races sometimes throw up a shockfor exactly this reason.

3. Avoid sellers – these horses are due to be sold by theircurrent owners Why? Well, it’s not because they arelightning quick and reliable!

4. Avoid banded stakes races. Predominantly held on theall weather, these races are mostly for poor performinghorses, really to give the owners something to run themin. Now some banded stakes races will have regulargood performers in this grade, most will not. Do notdismiss out of hand, but be aware that these races bringup shocks on many occasions.

5. Avoid National Hunt Flat races – known as bumpers– like maiden races, in some instances there is nocomparative form and so no way to judge effectivelythe relative merits of each entrant in the race.

6. Avoid races in heavy going over marathon distancesof 3 miles or over. Anything could happen during that3 miles especially over obstacles.

7. Avoid 5 furlong sprints – again the favourite couldmiss the kick, and the draw plays a big part in theseraces.

8. Look for races of 8 runners or less, or races where

Spotlight (in the Racing Post) mentions “plenty ofdeadwood”. This indicates that there are many horsesjust making up the numbers.

9. If you can follow the live betting market, ensure thatyou include in your calculations any horses whoseodds are shortening in the market. Perhaps you couldalso include 16/1 system selections.

I tend to use dutching as a tool for point 1 (small fieldraces) on most occasions. There are 2 clear marketleaders, but I’m unsure which horse will win.

Here’s another example: Take the 2:25 atWolverhampton on the 11th March 2006. The followinghorses lined up in this race over 6 furlongs: Bayeux 6/4,Graze On 10/3, Indian Maiden 7/1, Josh 7/1, Quito 8/1,Roman Maze 14/1, Treasure Cay 20/1, If Paradise 20/1,One More Round 20/1 and Orientor 25/1.

Immediately we can see that there are 2 horses whoclearly head the betting market – Bayeux and Graze On.Bayeux is priced at 6/4 which in percentage terms is 40%(see if you can work that out using the previous formula)Graze On is priced at 10/3 or 23.08%.

If we were to back just these 2 horses the total %would equal 63.08%. Should either of these horses win,we win the difference between 100 and 63.08 = £36.92 ifwe were backing £1 = 1%. The next horse, Indian Maidenis priced at 7/1 which in % terms is 12.5%. I will add thishorse to my ‘book’. My book now includes Graze On(who has won his last 4 races), Bayeux (very progressive)and Indian Maiden. The % is now 63.08+12.5=75.58%.

Looking at the race odds I am quite confident I canexclude all horses priced at 14/1 and over. This nowleaves me with Quito and Josh. I will, for safety’s sake,include one more horse to back, and it will be Josh at 7/1.This adds another 12.5% to my book, making it currently75.58% + 12.5% = 88.08%. I am happy with this. I havenow backed the following horses in this race:

Bayeux 6/4 £40Graze on 10/3 £23.08Indian Maiden 7/1 £12.5Josh 7/1 £12.5Total % = 88.08%.

If any of the horses win, I win the difference between100 and 88.08 = £11.92.

As it happened, Bayeux won at 6/4. I won £40 x6divided by 4=£60 minus the stakes for Graze on, IndianMaiden and Josh (23.08+12.5+12.5=£48.08) = £11.92profit.

I was very confident in Bayeux initially, as well asGraze on, but wanted to play it safe. Of course, the fewerhorses you select into your book, the more you win, BUTthe greater the chance you will lose.

How would laying just one horse have fairedagainst dutching our 4 chosen horses? Quito was thenext shortest priced horse in this race at 8/1. To win£11.92 I would have a liability of £95.36, but I wouldhave all of the other horses running for me. My insurancehere costs an additional £7 and as long as Quito doesn’twin, I win. Quito came 2nd incidentally.

It is always a good idea then to compare laying

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against dutching in all qualifying races. The bigger thefield, the more inclined I would be to lay one horse andhave the other horses running for me. The smaller thefields, with favourable conditions, the more inclined Iwould be to dutch.

Are there any downsides? Of course, if yourselections don’t win, you lose a large proportion of yourbetting bank which may be difficult to retrieve. That said,careful selection of races and discipline will see youright.

And don’t worry about the complex calculations!There are free applications on the internet which will dothe calculations for you if you punch in the odds.

http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/tools/DutchingCalculator.asp

http://www.betcalc.com/eqprofitcalc.php

Are there any tipsters on the market?Dutching tipsters are few and far between. Dutching

relies on the most up to date odds in order to calculatecorrectly. However, we have looked at 2 services whichdeal in dutching.

RATED THE TOPS – not for service though! RatedThe Tops intrigued me because the testimonials praisedthe service (don’t they all!). I took it for a test drive andpromptly began, what for me was, an interesting look intoa dutching tipster service. However, the emails soon driedup and my calls and emails remained unanswered forsome reason.

This service sends out selections in numerous racesthroughout the day to dutch. The problem here withdutching is that we are, admittedly, staking rather a largeamount of money for relatively little gain, and if one ofour selections in a particular race doesn’t win, then weare in a situation where we have a large loss which hasprobably negated a large number of our previouswinnings.

And there lies the problem with this service. It seemswholly unworkable because of the volume of dailyselections and the inherent problems of coping withlosses. For the £299 purchase price we also receive amanual which explains a dutching strategy which iscommon sense throughout. However, I cannot possiblyrecommend it for the price. Instead save your money andlook at my 8 earlier points, and make dutching a tool youuse as and when needed rather than as a mainstay of yourbetting income.

ONLY-A-TENNER: If you visit the website atwww.onlyatenner.com, you will find it littered withwinner after winner after winner (naturally these wereparts of multiple bets). The service also offers a betplacement dutching service for those of you at work, andthey boast 100% strike rate at present which makes meumm and ahh a bit. It sounds a bit too perfect!www.onlyatenner.com – price £299. Avoid!

BET-IE – Dutching calculatorI highly recommend Bet-ie, a piece of software used

solely in conjunction with the betting exchangeBetfair.com. It dutches races on your behalf and purportsto have an 80% strike rate with its dutched races when itsignals them as “excellent”. This 80% strike rate, with asuitable staking plan (please do contact me if you wouldlike it for free) means that Bet-ie really is value formoney.

What I really like about Bet-ie is the ability to changemy target profit on specific horses. Let’s take ourprevious example. Using Bet-ie I could back Bayeux, andinstruct the calculator to break even if Graze On, IndianMaiden or Josh won. This maximizes my profit onBayeux while offering me some insurance in the race.

Dutching need not be the preserve of horse racing. Doyou think that a certain football team’s result whenplaying another team will be low scoring? Well you candutch the 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 2-1 result if you think yourchosen team will NOT lose.

Perhaps you feel a certain game will be good for thestrikers. You can dutch the strikers of both teams to scorethe first goal (odds permitting of course). Ultimatelydutching is only limited by your imagination.

Bet-ie is available at www.bettingprofitsoftware.com –priced at £97. Includes free access to dutching forum forsharing of ideas and strategies. Highly Recommended!

SPECIAL FOCUS: Football betting

Why you don’t need arisky accumulator tomake good money fromfixed odds football bets

There are a number of ways to approach footballbetting, from the traditional methods of the fixed

odds coupon, to in running trading on the bettingexchanges. The latter is my preferred methodbecause of the flexibility, ability to adapt tochanging circumstances and lock in profits withouthaving to wait 90 minutes. (For more info take alook at your WRWM Premiere Issue). But how canwe turn a profit from the more traditional route?

The Fixed Odds CouponWe all dream of picking 7 straight home wins correct

in an accumulator, but this is a difficult feat to achieve.It’s purely down to probability. The more selections youinclude in an accumulator, the less likely all of theseselections will oblige. But this is not an article on thetheory of probability.

The traditional fixed odds coupon consists of the longlist which includes all UK matches in all major leaguedivisions, the mini sections list and the sections list. Thelatter 2 lists ask you to pick 1 or 2 matches from each of4 /5 sections. The matches chosen in these 2 lists are

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naturally hard to predict. We will, then, concentrate solelyon the long list.

How to profit from permutations The probability of accumulators winning you money

diminishes the more teams you add, so we can approachmultiple entry bets another way – by using permutations.

It is possible to ‘perm’ bets or selections. For example,if you made 3 selections, (a, b and c) you could perm allthe possible doubles. In this case 3 individual bets wouldbe possible; ab, ac, and bc, a total of 3 bets or lines.Similarly, with 4 selections, (a, b, c and d) the possibledoubles could again be permed and would become ab, ac,ad, bc, bd and cd; now 6 individual bets or lines.

As we currently stand in terms of form, it would be agood idea to perm teams such as Reading, runawayleaders of the Championship, Chelsea, Celtic at home,Gretna at home and Accrington Stanley. (I use these asexamples and not tips).

This gives us 5 teams. We can approach this bet in anumber of ways:

1. Back each team independently with a fixed stake

2. Back all teams in an accumulator – the winnings fromone team accrue onto the next team – BUT all 5 teamsmust win for us to realize a return

3. We can perm these teams. So if, say, 2 or 3 teams win,we still get a return, but if all 5 teams win, we willhave a very nice payout (dependent on the odds).

Let’s see how we calculate Option 3.

The easy way to calculate the number ofbets in a perm’

As an example, let’s choose 3 teams out of the 5 wehave singled out to win. We will perm any 3 from 5 = 10bets. Why 10 bets? Let’s look at the calculations:

STEP 1: Take the number of teams (5) and multiply the3 highest numbers: 5x4x3 = 60

STEP 2: Take the number of perms (3) and multiply it byevery number below it (1 and 2 in this case come before3): 1 x 2 x 3 = 6

STEP 3: Divide the number in step 1 by the number instep 2: 60/6 = 10

If we wanted to perm any 3 from 6 we would simplyfollow the 3 steps

STEP 1: Take the number of teams (6) and multiply the 3highest numbers: 6x5x4 = 120

STEP 2: Take the number of perms (3) and multiply it byevery number below it (1 and 2 in this case come before3): 1 x 2 x 3 = 6

STEP 3: And you then divide 120 by 6 which gives 20bets.

If it was any 4 from 6 you would multiply the 4 highestnumbers: 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 = 360

And you would then multiply the 4 lowest numbers: 1 x2 x 3 x 4 = 24. Then divide 360 by 24 which gives 15 lines.

So a Perm any 5 from 10 would go like this: 10 x 9 x

8 x 7 x 6 (the 5 highest numbers multiplied together =30240). Then multiply the 5 lowest numbers: 1 x 2 x 3 x4 x 5 = 120. Then divide 30240 by 120 = 252 lines.

How to write your bet on the fixed oddsfootball coupon

For any 5 from 10 perm you would put a 1 (homewin) or 2 (away win) or x (draw) against your 10selections. Decide how much you want to stake on eachline (let’s say 2p) and then write: “Perm any 5 from 10 =252 lines at 2p stake Total £5.04”

Your chances of a return increase tremendously if thistype of bet is used.

Here is another way you can usepermutations

Let’s say you have a strongly fancied home team, atreasonable odds (ideally evens or over), you could backthis team and 2 others (teams where your confidence isnot sky high, but you believe they have a greater chanceof winning) in a treble and cover all eventualities,provided your strongly fancied team wins. Thisencompasses 9 bets, as highlighted below. (Remember 1= home win, x = draw, 2 = away win)

TEAM 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1TEAM 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 X X XTEAM 3 1 2 X 1 2 X 1 2 X

As long as Team 1 wins, you win. And provided theodds are reasonable for Team 1, then your returns willexceed your stakes. For your other 3 teams, look throughthe long list and include teams where the draw or awayodds are 9/4 or 10/3 or a price around this mark. You willlose a small bit of your stake if both teams 2 and 3 win,but if there is any other result, you are in profit – caveat –our team 1 must win.

You can also substitute X (the draw) or 2 (the awaywin) for team 1 rather then the home win.

Single Bet Strategies:

Use the Saver (no bet) to gain extrainsurance when backing a home team

This is a great way to gain insurance when backing ahome team. Use the following free calculator athttp://www.betcalc.com/savercalc.php and enter the oddsof the home team you want to back. You can work the betin such a way that you break even if there is a draw, andlose if there is an away win. This is a form of dutchingfor those reticent about laying on the betting exchanges.Note: this bet is the same as laying the away team ofcourse because we win if the home team wins or if thereis a draw.

Use The Hard To Beat System forconsistent 20% returns!

According to the marketing hype atwww.compilersystems.com, this system has made one

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lucky user £1 million! To be honest, it is similar to myHard To Beat points selections system for horse racing.So do you really need to fork out £79 to be told to backteams at between 1/5 and 1/3 playing at home? It’s notrocket science, let’s be honest, but the essence of backingvery short priced teams who play at home may have somemerit and over the long term could provide a consistentreturn. Patience is required here though, as is an elementof due diligence.

As an example, Barcelona at home is usually a rocksolid bet, but due diligence is still required. If Ronaldinho(world footballer of the year) and Samuel Etoo aren’tplaying, I would have reservations about backing at theprice – the importance of research!

With short priced home favourites, we are simplyusing the bookmakers here to show us which teams aremost likely to win.

So can you really make money backing short-priced teams? Why not? 1/5 is a 20% return on moneyinvested, and the strike rate of winners will far outweighand absorb the losers at level stakes. I know it’s notexciting, but again we need to concentrate on the longterm. We can also spread our wings into Europe and seekout solid home favourites through the “euro coup” fixedodds coupon. Again, due diligence is a must here – usethe team’s website, or www.betdevil.com to gauge theteams relative performances. Stand out European teamssuch as Barcelona, Juventus, Fenerbahce, Olympiakos,Bayern Munich, Ajax, AZ Alkmaar are regular inclusionsin my bets. I have left out Real Madrid (toounpredictable), Portugeuse football (I have no confidencein form being upheld) and French football(unpredictable). We have numerous opportunitiesthroughout a weekend to back with confidence these shortpriced home favourites.

I personally concentrate predominantly on Englishfootball. I’m also confident with Turkish teams likeFenerbahce andGalatasary when they play at homeagainst teams in the lower half of the Turkish premierleague. This season, AZ Alkmaar have been very solid athome in the Dutch league and if their price is short I backthem with confidence.

Always make sure you do your due diligence: Allof the European leagues are covered atwww.betdevil.com, who give a useful insight into recentform, head to heads and more.

With English leagues I venture no further than theRacing and Football Outlook newspaper andwww.soccerstats.com. The weekly specialist paper coversall aspects of up and coming football matches. Thefixtures and form pages are particularly insightful.

So how should you do your due diligence? First, Iwould select all teams with home advantage at shortprices. Let’s take games on the weekend 4th March 2006.We have 2 qualifiers Celtic at home to Aberdeen 1/6 andMan City at home to Sunderland 2/5

My first stop off point would be the Racing andFootball outlook. In their fixtures and form section, Iwould look at the previous 6 results and the “form” rating

they give. The bigger the difference between Celtic andAberdeen the better: 10+ is excellent. Next I will look atwww.betdevil.com and compare the ratings on this site.Again, I am looking for the biggest divergence betweenthe 2 teams in all categories. On betdevil I click onmatches and Scotland “all” which lists up and comingmatches. When our match is found, the letters BLMOPappear at the end of the line . Click on M for the ratingsthat we require.

Go to the match ratings analysis – the bigger theratings difference, the better. This site also shows recentform and previous history. Our ideal is that our chosenteam hasn’t lost (or has preferably won) in its last 6games and has beaten the opposition at home previously.

This is all I do. I also wait for team news prior to kickoff, by logging on to www.racingpost.co.uk/sport andmake sure there are no key players missing. Payparticular attention to in-form striker injuries or a goalkeeping change.

Again The Sports Statistician is an important part ofmy weekend – I have detailed the merits of thispublication and it really is a must if you want to gain anedge. (Remember: the price is just £37 per year NOT permonth as printed in last month’s issue! Seewww.oxonpress.com.) Celtic’s ability to score an averageof 2.5 goals at home is a key stat for me. Aberdeenconcede an average of 1.1 away from home – good signsagain.

Man City v Sunderland: The key here isSunderland’s inability to win – they conceded 24 goalsaway from home and scored just 10! Again we check theform stats at the Racing and Football Outlook – thediscrepancy is not what I would like – less than 5. A lookat the recent form of Man City at www.betdevil.comshows 9 goals scored at home in their last 3 games – andvictories in the last 3 matches. Sunderland lost 4 out of 5away from home, winning 1-0 against fellow strugglersWest Brom. Result: Man City win 2-1. This latter game isnowhere near as solid as Celtic and I just chose Celtic onthis occasion.

What to do with Multiple Qualifiers: If yourresearch highlights 3 or more qualifiers in a day, thenback them all to level stakes. This is where the compilersystems book can help. Advocating level stakes spreadover 3 (or however many qualifying) matches and re-investing profits (rarely will 3 selections lose, if at all)will compound returns.

Again it’s a slow burner this system, but I see aprofitable long term future.

Sometimes the simplest methods can be missed, buthaving the bookies point out clear winners at home (asreflected in short prices) and backing them can proveprofitable.

If you want an indepth look at backing short-pricedteams www.compilerssystems.com ebook costs £79, butwith putting your own grey matter to work, I am sure you

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can keep the £79 and start for yourself!

Which of these Fixed Odds Services isworth a second look?

Richard Mark’s Select Few Football Service:Richard has made a very tidy sum from selling his variousfootball systems backed up with great copywriting andbold promises, but does he deliver? I must thank JohnSmith, one of our readers, for his thorough record keepingin respect of the following, and I hope it can give you aglimpse of the service Mr Mark offers.

Marks’ ‘Select Few Football Service’ makes a boldclaim: “Instead of working all week for a few hundredpounds, here’s how to make double that in just 7 minutes”

So how did our WRWM reader fare in his test period?From the 24th November 2005, Richard Mark advised some39 bets on the half time/full time results market (tippingeither a win/win or draw/draw), and tipped just 2 winningmatches returning £20 and £34.13 to 10% of betting bank(£200). Now it’s going to be the longest 7 minutes of his lifeif that few hundred pounds is going to be doubled!

The results in this test period are just appalling and inno way mirror the claims made in the literature. This isthe service as it stands from a punter’s real experiencesup until February. Available at www.richardmark.net for£97 for 6 months or £187 for 12 months, the select fewfootball service just hasn’t produced a profit for Mr Smiththrough his test period. Avoid!

Beware The Fixed Odds Loophole! Here’s the marketing hype:

“You Need Know Absolutely Nothing About SportsBetting... Or Even Care... TO BEAT THE BOOKIEOR HAVE THEM RETURN ALL, OR PART OFYOUR STAKE EVERY TIME... 100%GUARANTEED”

With claims like that I just had to buy it! What Ireceived was a 13 page ebook spilling the beans. Butwhat is this fixed odds loophole? Well, I was verydisappointed. It’s hardly a loophole at all. It’s backing alloutcomes in 3 matches and yes, you are guaranteed areturn, but during my test period, my return was a lot lessthan I actually staked – I mean, what’s the point in that?

The instructions within the ebook are unclear and Iwould have liked to see the systems in action. The basicpremise behind the loophole is an interesting one. Thereare 27 outcomes in a 3 match bet – can you work themout? The author advocates backing all outcomes.Naturally you will win, but some of the 27 bets will loseyou money if they come in. A large slice of luck is

needed to return you a profit.

Let’s say I staked £10 per line in a 27 line bet such asthis. My stake is £270. My returns on 22 of the betswould lose me money and I would win on 5 of the bets.The odds are stacked against me. In order to return aprofit I really need to back games where the prices for thewin, draw and away win are all 9/4 or above – this willnever happen. True, 2 out of the 3 outcomes can bebacked at 9/4 in some matches, but a home win willusually be shorter.

Available at www.fixedoddsloophole.com for $97, ifthis system was more clearly explained with actualexamples, I could join those people in the testimonialswho are making it work (God knows how!) But as itstands – not recommended!

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So what’s it all about? Well, in a nutshell, you simplypluck details of planning applications that are freelyavailable from your local council’s planning department andthen turn it into a £25,000 – £79,500 part-time business!

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To see just how incredibly simple and easy to start thisunique business model is PLUS details of my 6-monthunconditional guarantee, please take a look at the fullreport or go directly to www.salesleadbrokerage.com.

It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot beheld responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on

this understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money,

Subscription Office, Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS.Tel: 0208 597 0181 Fax: 0208 597 4040.Registered office: Canonbury Publishing Ltd. Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ.

Registered in England No. 4765425 Vat Reg No. 811 5700 64 © Copyright What Really Wins Money 2006

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