Hi, welcome back

With the start of the footy season upon us, Ithought it would be a good opportunity to draw up abattle plan for the upcoming season (just like Fergiedoes!). I’ve covered backing, laying, and that oldchestnut “laying the draw” - surprisingly, the lattermight have legs after all. The Patriarch introduces usto perms (Keegan, McDermott, Alan Sunderlandtake a bow!).

There’s also a quick introduction to handicapmanipulation and a refresher on price gapping (I’vebeen making it pay on my blog!)

The usual systems and tipsters update appears (and yes I still need testers!)

Regards

Clive Keeling

BETTING SPECIAL!

How can you profit fromthe new football season?

There are many strategies we can use to attack thebookmakers this football season. So which area

suits your betting personality? The bookmakers andbetting exchanges offer such a huge variety of betsin every area of football that it is worth looking atthese betting opportunities.

Of course the “experts” have released their ownsystems/tipster services which, of course, all promiseto make us rich. Which of these strategies is worthfollowing and which ones are worth a red card?

I will be focussing on backing systems, layingsystems, trading methods and spreadsheets whichhelp with permutations.

BackingWith the myriad of markets offered by

bookmakers and betting exchanges, we can backvirtually any outcome in a football match. Be itnumber of goals scored, traditional winner in matchodds market, goalscorer, correct score, corners,who’ll score next, etc etc.

We can also bet in running with traditionalbookmakers and with the betting exchanges. Thisform of betting really comes into its own onwww.betfair.com and is something which deserves asection of its own. So let’s begin with some of themost prominent backing systems which you willmost likely have heard of via mail shots or thoselovely (God Bless ‘em!) affiliate emailers.

www.footballcashbuilder.com“At Last – A Sure Fire Way to Secure Football

Betting Profits With Minimal Risk. Learn theexact Secrets I use to win more than £100,000 TaxFree Every Year betting on Fixed Odds Football.”

At least that’s what the website headlineexclaims... £100,000 tax-free EVERY YEAR betting

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What Really Wins MoneyAn Independent review of tipsters and betting systems

August 2008

IN THIS ISSUE:The Compiler System...................................... 3

Spreadsheet calculator packages ..................... 4

Laying systems................................................ 5

Trading on ‘in running’ matches on Betfair ... 6

A little on ‘Laying the Draw’.......................... 7

Football tipsters ............................................... 8

Why value lies in managers ............................ 9

Betting Strategy Revealed: Handicapmanipulation – cracking the code ................. 10

Betting Strategy: Are price gappers winning gappers?........................................... 12

SYSTEMS AND TIPSTERS UPDATE:Frankie Franks all weather investments........ 14

Systems and tipsters to monitor .................... 16

The Patriarch Presents: Revealed: a simple way to profit from football perms ................ 17

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on fixed odds football!

I am not too sure about these returns. The stakeswill have to be quite large and winnings regular toensure we get a 6 figure return.

So what’s involved?

The Football Cash Builder is a treble whose oddsare the equivalent of evens or thereabouts. Theauthor tells us that these bets win 7 out of every 9times so profits are theoretically high.

If one of the trebles loses, we look to retrieve ourlost stake with the next bet (in a cycle of 3 bets only).

I will be following this system via the blog forthe duration of the season and if the profits are asadvertised, after the end of this current seasonWRWM will be written from my Caribbean condo!

After the first weekend of football, I lost my firsttreble thanks to Brazil’s inability to win in 90minutes in the Olympics, but Sunday’s evens treblecame in very nicely. Time will show if 6 figures areachievable. I would suspect again that performancewill differ between people as there are many teamswe can select from in a given weekend – my 3fancies will differ from someone else’s.

Bottom line: A very interesting systemreminiscent of the Compiler Systems Ultra ShortieBacking System but involving trebles rather thansingle bets. The contention that £100,000 can bemade is a little far fetched I would say and the statsgiven to support this method (90% strike rate etc)have an element of the ‘urban myth’ about them.

Follow progress on the blog and see if thatCaribbean condo will be within my reach.

www.fixedoddsfootball.co.ukThe BLUEPRINT 7 manual on sale here (£47)

focusses on profiting from the fixed odds couponavailable at the bookmakers. The manual advisesthat we start with at least 7 games of the currentfootball season played to ensure there is afoundation of form available. The manual contains:

• Formulae for selecting the teams to bet. This is basedon games played and goals scored for and against.

• The ability to maximise profits throughpermutations (which The Patriarch will focus on)

I found the manual extremely exhausting to read

and unduly complex in parts. That said, any permaficionado would find a lot of useful material withinthe manual. Again (if my brain hasn’t exploded afterthe 2nd read) I will attempt some of the perms andstrategies and report back via the blog.

www.simplextrading.co.ukNaturally there has been a big recent push for this

system prior to the beginning of the PremiershipFootball season. Yes, the system may well haveprofited in the last few years, and indeed I followedit last season and it profited well. BUT is it assimple as advertised and are there any hiddensurprises once implemented in the real world?

How can you start with just 10p stakes and makea 4-figure sum or even the £44K quoted in the 2001-2002 season?

The answer is simple – doubling up after a losingbet. E.g. 10p stakes 1st bet – loses. 20p stakes 2ndbet – loses. 40p 3rd bet – loses. 80 p 4th bet – loses.£1.60 5th bet – wins. Revert back to 10p.

With these types of systems, I would recommendyou do a worse case scenario calculation before youstart. This is of course the very worst that canhappen if one team goes on an anomalous run whichwas unexpected.

A current Premiership season has 38 games; solet’s double up over 38 games should the highlyunlikely occur:

BET 1 10p BET 2 20p

BET 3 40p BET 4 80p

BET 5 £1.60 BET 6 £3.20

BET 7 £6.40 BET 8 £12.80

BET 8 £25.60 BET 9 £51.20

BET 10 £102.40 BET 11 £204.80

BET 12 £409.60 BET 13 £819.20

BET 14 £1638.40 BET 15 £3276.80

BET 16 £6553.60 BET 17 £13107.20

I have only got to Bet 17 and things are looking abit silly stakes wise!

If a team goes through the season without having reached the outcome we require we’d belooking at a bet in the tens of millions of pounds byBet 38! YIKES!

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Now you can see how the £44,000 profit in 2001– 2002 came about – it required large stakes whichperhaps were out of the grasp of the average punter.

Last year the system worked like clockworkdespite stakes reaching £819.20 for Reading beforethe result we required came about. Of course, in theworld of “ifs”, if Reading had continued their runwithout producing the result we required, 4 morebets would have required a £13K+ stake (and thatdoesn’t account for stakes already put down!)

Bottom line: If you are aware of the risksinherent with doubling up there is a chance thissystem will profit again BUT we don’t know howthe promoted teams in the Premiership will perform,or, indeed, if the top 4 will put a run together whichwill jeopardise The Simplex System. As I writeStoke look to be in big trouble.

The need, then, is for a betting bank robustenough to place stakes after Bet 12 onwards and thismay require stakes far in excess of that available tothe average punter.

www.compilersystem.comThis is a site run by Daniel Soulsby who markets

himself as an ex bookie/odds compiler. The CompilerSystems package is 5 ebooks and 2 bonuses alldedicated to football. Here’s a quick synopsis ofwhat’s on offer from a couple of the ebooks (I cannotof course express the profit potential but will use thefootball blog atsoccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com to keep trackof results as they happen in this new season)

The Compiler System“Certain teams hardly ever lose or draw” is the

contention of the system author.

This system predicts which teams are on awinning run and it also predicts when not to bet.

The Compiler System can, says the author, turn£30 into £50K in 2 years – or 4 seasons.

Using The Racing and Football Outlook TheCompiler System looks to take advantage of ultrashort priced football teams and profit from backing certain of them. Again, it is simple andquick, so I will be following this system after wehave 6 results for each team in this new season. Iwill be making my own bets before that period aswell (based on my own personal knowledge) so theymay not reflect True Compiler System Bets for the

1st 6 games of the season.

An interesting and simple method, it onlyremains to be seen how profitable backing selectedultra shorties can be in this new football system.

Profit potential on £30 starting bets in £1,600 inthe first year with compounding taking over after that.

The no draw free bet

This bet can be done about twice a week. This isa traditional lay the draw system with a few addedchecks (unique to compiler systems) to ensure thatwe select the correct teams to lay the draw with.

Profit potential is reliant on a number of factors.Those of you familiar with the Football CashGenerator and other lay the draw systems willalready know the problem areas with this particularbet. (See dedicated article on laying the drawfeatured a little later on).

Professional football betting

This ebook takes The Compiler System checklistinto greater depth. It focuses on really nailing theultra short odds on teams to ensure strike rate is keptas high as possible.

Bonus – even more money

This is an interesting sequence based systemwhere we look to bet on teams to score an evenamount of goals. The selection strategy is interestingand logical and this is another I will monitor.

Bonus – win win win

A derivative of The Compiler System butfocussing on better priced teams both home andaway. The selection strategy again is very logicaland thorough and this is another system I will followonce around 6 matches have been played this seasonto give me a form base around which to work.

Bottom line: Certainly this package representsvalue for money and there are at least 3 veryinteresting football specific systems which I willfollow this season. Each system is well presented,simple enough to follow and logical and there is adegree of confidence on my part that they couldprofit this system.

At £39 this is, I would venture, one of the betterpackages on the market. If you want to check outperformance before buying, then click onsoccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com after about6 weeks into the season for a continuous analysis of

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this and other systems.

Spreadsheet calculator packageswww.footballsystem.co.uk £19.99

This product is simply a set of spreadsheets withaccompanying guides and does offer extremely

good value for money. This is a tool rather thanoffering any practical advice regarding the selectionof teams to back or oppose. It follows therefore thatthe performance of these spreadsheets are only asgood as the selections input into them.

These spreadsheet calculators focus on backing2,3 or 4 teams and calculates permutations for you,as well as working with profit targets OR a specifictarget amount. Spreadsheets include “Fixed Budgetwith 2,3 4 outcomes”, “Profit target formula with2,3,4 outcomes”, “Fixed Return Formula with 2, 3,or 4 outcomes”.

Bottom line: I like this package. It will be of useto those looking to back 2,3 or 4 teams inpermutation type bets on the fixed odds coupon.

Merlininfo4u2succeed.com/ecommerce/merlinpdc/

The Merlin Results Radar system is anotherspreadsheet which looks to make us punters’ liveseasier whilst maximising profits.

Merlin contends that if you can select just oneresult from 3, the spreadsheet will “produce thecorrect results for all 3 games in the Play worksheetWITHOUT FAIL – every time!”

A treble betting system will look to give us the best permutations, one of which is guaranteed tobe the winning treble permutation IF we havecorrectly predicted just one result from the 3 gameswe have shortlisted.

My first try with Merlin came on Week 1 of thePremiership, where my banker bet was Bolton tobeat newcomers Stoke, followed by Fulham to beatnewcomers Hull and Reading at home to make theirPremiership experiences count against Plymouth.

I input the odds with the bet I expected to oblige(Bolton) first.

Merlin then showed me the treble bets I shouldfocus on (by indicating with an arrow).

The result? Bolton won, Fulham lost, andReading won. If we translate this to fixed oddscoupon parlance, Bolton at home winning is a 1,Hull winning at home is a 1, and Reading winning athome is a 1 (where 1 = home win, x = draw, and 2 =away win). A loss on this occasion with thesurprising victory by Hull. I retain confidence in thisexcellent spreadsheet, and reiterate that performanceis only as good as the selections made.

Bottom line: I will continue with thisspreadsheet, which is again focussed on the Fixedodds coupon. A very impressive bit of kit BUTreliant on personal ability regarding selections.

The Soccer Magic Matrixwww.progamblingproducts.co.uk/netsales/soccermagicmatrix.html

The Soccer Magic Matrix is available from thewebsite above. Again it is another sophisticatedcalculator, which will help you calculatepermutations for up to 6 different outcomes.

So what’s involved?

Soccer Magic Matrix is a powerful bet structuringprogram. It will allow you to structure single matchbets and combination match bets with the ability toset your own Total Stake level requirement or yourProfit Target against each bet.

The principals used by the program are the verysame principals used by professionals to hike theirlong-term profits. Despite the use of combinationsbeing well know many punters, when consideringsoccer bets, still only place single bets, backing amatch and just backing one of the possible outcomes– Home Win, Draw or Away Win.

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The astute soccer punter will capitalise by selectingmore than one match and structure bets to use apermutation or combination of possible outcomes.

The aim of Soccer Magic Matrix is to open-upyour combination adventures by providing acalculator which will give you the flexibility andpower to try-out various scenarios very quickly andto determine if your particular scenario is viable.Some scenarios may not be viable, for example, ifodds are too low for your selections, but SoccerMagic Matrix will allow you to quickly “tweak”your selections until you have a structured bet youare happy with. You may wish to produce a totalstructured bet where your main bet is covered by anumber of smaller bets in case your main bet doesnot produce a winning situation. The combinationsare endless and with just a few clicks you will beable to establish the stakes required and whatreturns/profits are achievable.

Here I have chosen 5 hypothetical matches withhypothetical odds. In the forecast selection part ofthe calculator I have selected 6 bets involving all 5teams. Bet 1, you can see, I have chosen Home winfor Arsenal (HW), Draw for Derby (X), Draw forFulham (X), home win for Leeds (HW) and awaywin for Dundee (AW).

I have chosen a different combination of bets forBet 2, 3,4,5,and 6 in the hope that at least one ofthese lines will prove profitable.

The big benefit of this calculator is the ability tostake using a predetermined amount of money (£100

in this example) OR I can specify a profit target (andreduce stakes by, perhaps, breaking even on a coupleof the mines).

Bottom line: This calculator is another variationof the above 2 spreadsheets/calculators and does allof the calculations for those who want to placecombination bets on a number of different matches.

It offers, I suppose, a more professional approachto permutation betting and, at £57, is a worthyinvestment for the serious football fixed odds bettor(although a more basic version can be found, for halfthe price, at www.footballsystem.co.uk).

Success is down to your ability to select thecorrect betting opportunities. Software such as thiscan offer alternative combinations of bets in thehope that a winning line is selected.

Laying systemsLaying to Win – Soccer System Secretswww.topbettingsystems.com

We can apply laying to any market on Betfairregarding football matches. In the match oddsmarket of course, we can effectively back 2 of 3events by laying 1 outcome – e.g. laying the draw isthe equivalent of backing both home and away sides.

The only laying specific manual I could find isone I have mentioned previously, written byLawrence Taylor.

So what’s involved?

The system involves simply 4 lay bets andaverage yearly profits claimed have been £29K from£1K bank with a 90% strike rate. (NOTE –previouseditions of the manual only included 3 lay bets).

Sounds extremely impressive, doesn’t it? Thereare 9 leagues the system concentrates on and thesystem requires at least 5 games be played before itkicks off properly.

I do like laying BUT some of the odds for the 4lays, I know already, are going to be huge and openus up to the betting bank taking a battering if anyanomalous results occur early in the season.

There has been suspicion, in some circles, thatresults are back fitted. This is unsubstantiated ofcourse and the proof of the pudding will be via live

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testing in a new season.

Again I would suggest you follow my footy blogas I am keen to try this season long.

Bottom line: I have practicality issues with thissystem. If there are multiple qualifying selections allstarting at the same time, the liability ring fencedmay stretch the betting bank.

Certain of the lays are at unhealthy odds (as highas 20 at times!) Liabilities then become a HUGEissue, as this is NOT a trading system. I suspect if anelement of trading were included in this system, thiswould be extremely beneficial and free up liabilitiesat appropriate price movements.

The selection process with the manual shouldensure the lays are more often successful than not.But surprises do occur.

Laying in general: I would suspect that laying(as far as football is concerned) is best utilised whenmarried with trading strategies – and it is withtrading that we will now focus.

Trading on ‘in running’matches on BetfairDo a bit of Googling and you will be able to find

out a lot of background information regardingtrading AS IT APPLIES TO BETTINGEXCHANGES, in particular www.betfair.com...Those of you who are familiar with trading on ‘inrunning’ football matches will already know some ofthe concepts discussed in this part of the article. But Ihope there will be elements that might trigger someideas you had not thought of. So what’s on the marketwhen it comes on to football trading on Betfair?

Football trading is OPINION based by and large.Contrast this with horse racing trading which is idealfor FOLLOW THE MONEY trading. Horses’ pricespre race change in reaction to money for and against,whereas football trading is wholly reactionary. Anevent has to have occurred for the odds toshorten/lengthen.

My contention therefore, with trading ebooks, isthat they CANNOT TELL US when thesereactionary events will occur. Nobody knows when,or if, a goal will be scored, or a player sent off. Wecan only surmise based on past performance,personal knowledge and opinion, and what we seehappening if watching these football matches live.

www.ftsincome.co.ukThis is a service run by Ian Erskine who, I

believe was ill last year. I am unsure therefore as towhether his accompanying tipping service is stillrunning and effective.

Mr Erskine’s books offer strategies specific totrading on ‘in running’ football matches on Betfair.From my perspective I believe that there is a limitednumber of trading techniques available for the matchodds market. Each trading technique looks to takeadvantage of changes in odds in direct reaction togoals/red cards.

15 minute system£74,000 in 12 months certainly gets my attention,

but my first question is “ How large are the tradingstakes used to achieve this kind of a return?” or “If atrade goes all pear shaped, then how big is thepotential loss?”

This is an ‘in running’ trading plan looking toexploit draws after half time and profit throughtrading OR losing a predetermined stake should agoal be scored. Of course I cannot recount thesystem word for word, but will do my best to findexamples of this kind of trade in order to share withyou via the blog. What we can learn from thisparticular system is that to control stakes whiletrading, we must back first and then look to lay offafter odds have reduced (ideally!) Why? Becausewhen we back, we do NOT have a liability issue. Ifwe are looking to lay first and (hopefully) back at ahigher price in reaction to a certain event, we havethe liability issue. It’s an interesting way ofcontrolling potential trading losses isn’t it?

I don’t feel confident enough to commit money tothis system immediately BUT will paper trade andlook at the odds and determine if the 15 minutesystem would have profited or not in certain games.

Football trading systemSome great advice begins this ebook – yes it’s that

word “DISCIPLINE” again (where have I heard thatbefore?) and how focussing on a niche is the key tosuccess. Mr Erskine is, of course, quite correct.

This system is another take on the ‘Laying theDraw’ trading strategy which is, of course, as old asMenzies Campbell.

This manual really won’t be of interest to anyonealready familiar with the intricacies (and potential

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pitfalls) in ‘Laying the Draw’. Mr Erskine doesmake a convincing case though, and it is perhaps inour CHOICE OF GAMES where this strategy canprove effective. Similarly, it is also in our taking aprofit after a goal has been scored which will ensuresuccess. Remember what I wrote just a few lines ago– laying first when trading involves a liability issue.This has, to be fair, been addressed by Mr Erskine.His method of control is certainly workable and,after a season’s worth of trading on worldwidefootball, will negate a large proportion of losses.

One obvious advantage that is not addressed inthis very basic introduction to trading is the powerof software. I have said it before and will repeatmyself, FAIRBOT at www.binteko.com will proveto be invaluable to those who want to investigate thepotential in ‘Laying the Draw’ trading. The softwareprovides “greening up” figures and a consistentprofit/loss figure as the football game goes inrunning. And at $99 for the year, this is a superbpiece of software and really a must for traders.

Bottom line: The ebook at www.ftsincome.co.ukis a basic introduction to trading ‘in running’football matches by ‘Laying the Draw’, andalthough there are some interesting points, seasonedBetfairians will find little of benefit. That said, somevery interesting points and, whilst following allqualifying matches where lay the draw tradingwould be advised sing Mr Erskine’s methodology,we could have profited handsomely throughoutSaturday and Sunday (16th and 17th August) Again,check it out on the blog.

www.exchangetraders.co.ukThis is actually a tipping service which highlights

football matches where we can find potentiallyprofitable trading opportunities. David Lauder is theguy behind this service which charges £30 permonth. Results are available for inspection on thewebsite, and, if nothing else, you should take a lookat “AN EXAMPLE TRADE” and “IN PLAYADVICE” to get a glimpse into how he makes hisdecisions (remember what I said about OPINIONand football trading).

Bottom line: I have not experienced thepracticalities of this service but will get my blagginghead on and try to get a trial. The website itself isworth exploring for those who want to look at pasttrades and perhaps model what a “professional” does.

A little on ‘Laying the Draw’Alot has been written about this old chestnut

in the past. It all began with the Football Cash Generator which was heralded as the cash cowfor football traders on Betfair. Over the years, thebasic system formulated in that ebook was shown tobe flawed.

Does this mean ‘Laying the Draw’ should bedismissed out of hand?

Well, not if you look at statistics regarding howmany 0-0 and score draws appear throughout aseason. The contention is that 0-0 and score drawsare so infrequent that we should profit long term ifwe employ a concerted ‘Lay the Draw’ trading policythroughout the season on ALL qualifying games.

A look at the blog will show you how manysuccessful trades were made on this first weekend.Yes there were a handful of losers, BUT if we lookto limit losses by trading out at a predeterminedpoint while a game is still drawn (taking aguaranteed BUT smaller loss) we could very wellprofit long term.

This is something I am keen to follow. Evengames that end as score draws can still allow us toprofit from ‘Laying the Draw’, especially if there isa long gap between first goal and equaliser.

I have renewed hope regarding this tradingmethod BUT if any success is to come out of it, thenwe must apply some money management rules, andbe flexible enough to take marginal games.

It’s all about decisions isn’t it? If a team is 1-0up, and has been 1-0 up since early in the match,then what do we do? An equaliser is a distinctpossibility isn’t it? Do we take profits straight awayor wait and hope?

So many decisions to make and it is thesedecisions in the real trading environment that willdetermine eventual profit and loss.

Should you e selective or lay all qualifiers? Thisis the crux. The stats would have you believe thatyou can lay the draw in all qualifying games andprofit season long because of the low percentage of0-0’s and score draws (and what is a qualifyinggame? – well for me any game where the odds to laythe draw are 4 or lower).

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Look again at www.exchangetraders.co.uk/ – theyoperate a different way. They look to ‘Lay the Draw’(and trade other markets) in selective matches only.Focussing on the few and not the many should allowus to cherry pick the better opportunities and ensurea greater strike rate.

I have one method of ‘Laying the Draw’ whichwill reduce liability, and it is this – simply lay thedraw at half time if 0-0 or 1-1. You will find the layodds to be greatly reduced and you have a wholehalf for one more goal to be scored (0-0 is theideal!) – try it for yourself.

Bottom line: It must not be forgotten that thereare other markets open for us to trade ‘in running’in qualifying football matches (please refer Premiere Issue of WRWM for more examples) but I have chosen to focus on ‘Laying the Draw’because, well, the majority of manuals deal with this market singularly).

‘Laying the Draw’ should not be dismissed out of hand and may prove to be a good profit makerthis coming season. I’ll be tracking as best as I can via the blog atsoccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com

Money management is KEY. Decision making isKEY. A long-term perspective is KEY. And I mayventure, professional software COULD prove to beKEY to trading success.

Do look at the betting portals as there is freeinformation on trading football matches which isquality for the price!

Football tipstersFree tipsters

Both Mark Langdon and Kevin “the Professor”Pullein have pulled in a profit in the last few seasonsand their selections are free (ish). Both of these guyswrite for The Racing Post. The perception withcheap or free services is inferiority. But if theyprofit, then they profit! The staking plan is fullyexplained within their columns in The Racing Post(both offline and online) and following them thiscoming season should show another profit, althoughMr Langdon had a terrible weekend for thebeginning of the Premiership.

Other tipsters

www.football-bets.co.ukRun by the Oracle, this site is worth visiting if

only to read the articles and inspect the staking plan(modelling those who are successful is a quick wayfor you to profit).

A profit was accrued last season. The oracle looksto use “confidence” bets, increasing stakes withincreasing confidence in his selections.

Please do take a look at the following free articles

www.football-bets.co.uk/football-bet-types-explained.php

www.football-bets.co.uk/football-betting-information.php

Those impressed by the general layout of thewebsite and its content can claim a discount atwww.football-bets.co.uk/wrwm

www.betting4profits.co.ukA new service run by reader Paul Waddington (a

WRWM reader), www.betting4profits.co.uk offers a14-day free trial which is a reasonable time period toget a flavour regarding the service.

Focussing not only on football, but also on darts,golf, and snooker. Previous results have beenfavourable, especially in the football arena and withthe season kicking off again, now is as good a timeas any to take the 2-week trial.

www.footballmaestrosystem.comMy close show biz pal and Guinness Record

Breaker for most ebooks written in a 5 minuteperiod (158), Mr Stephen Brookes, is the manbehind The Football Maestro tipping service.

Having actually heard some good reports aboutthis service (I don’t know if the good reports weregood because they came from an affiliate with avested interest?) I emailed the Shakespeare ofBetting and happily he has allowed me to follow thetips for the season.

The Football Maestro’s tips are generally of theobvious kind (Barcelona recently at 1.10 – back over2.5 goals (they won 4-1), but if he can turn that £100into £10,000 then, hey, who am I to complain?

Tips are received by email and the price is niceand low. It is very early in the season of course to

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actually give any positives or negatives.

Initial thoughts? Very obvious selections by andlarge that I would personally select myself. The keymay be in the staking plan employed by Mr Brookes.I am keen to keep an eye on his season longprogress. If the strike rate remains high, married witha decent staking plan, then profit will accrue – itremains to be seen if profit will be as claimed.

footballinvestorsclub.comI have emailed Michell Khang regarding this

service. Results are not updated which leads me toquestion whether the service is still running. Aninteresting service if results can be believed. Slowand steady. Small initial starting bank and levelstakes betting allowed last season for slow andsteady profiting without trading.

www.football4profit.comThe correct price – NOW completely free!

Worthy of joining if only to act as a sounding boardfor your own ideas and opinions. A great resourcefor research.

www.soccerbetting.infoYes, it’s catching! This service is free too, and the

benefit can come, again, from using this as anadditional resource.

Research resourceswww.racingpost.co.uk – the RP sport section can

offer some decent angles on games that you may nothave thought of.

www.betdevil.com – unique ratings on eachmatch – super resource giving a quick view on teamA versus team B by unique form ratings.

www.footballbettingresults.co.uk/

Football scores for the Premiership in a uniqueformat giving all the stats on the matches.

www.soccerstats.com/ – great stats site for majorand minor European leagues.

www.justin.tv – live football matches online

www.livescore.betradar.com/multicast/?alias=betfair&language=en – excellent live score site withsound alarm for each goal scored.

Racing and Football Outlook: a superb offline

newspaper publication produced every Monday witha superb footballing section. More indepth than theRacing Post and offering comprehensive articles,analysis and stats focussing on English leagues.

Fancy winning a Premier League Player’swages (well about 1 day’s worth!)?

Take a look at www.virtualpunter.com £20, 000 isup for grabs to the person whose virtual betting banktops the charts.

“Pay £5 to enter which gives you a virtual £500‘betting bank’” – that’s quite an upside and quite areturn should you top the betting charts come season end. A very novel and exciting way to “bet”without the attendant risk and a unique websiteworthy of investment!

I’ve put my fiver down and this time next year,Rodney, I’ll be a Brazillionaire!

More Football Betting Secrets!

Why value lies inprogressive managersDid I mention that football betting is all about

opinion? No? Well, below you’ll find KarlDennis’s (from the Karl Dennis newsletter atwww.racing-online.co.uk/) opinion on the lowerleagues and the niches he is focussing on. Over toyou Karl…

“At the start of every football season the fans ofmost clubs are usually rather optimistic – (Unlessyou are a Luton, Bournemouth or Rotherham fan).

Optimism though can soon turn to pessimism asthe truth dawns that their team is not as good as thefans thought. Yet in many cases it can be predicted,because the key to success lies, in my opinion, withthe management.

Look for clubs that have bright and progressivemanagers and you’ll find those who are going to besuccessful. Last season, Doncaster, Swansea andNotts Forest were all managed by young managerswho were desperate for success. They all wonpromotion from League 2.

In League 3 it was Wimbledon, Stockport,Peterborough and Hereford who went up and allexcept Hereford had young managers in charge. Ofthose sides Swansea and Stockport make a lot ofappeal and it is not unusual for newly promoted

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sides to do well in a division higher. So let’s have asmall bet on these teams and look for a couple ofothers who are also managed by up and comingcoaches to give ourselves a bit of fun over the wintermonths whilst at the same time giving ourselves achance of making a profit. This policy has stood mein good stead over the years and there is no reasonto think it will change.

In truth there is no point in looking at the PremierLeague, which has the same tired look about it.(Interestingly, this is where I differ in OPINION toKarl – the very predictability of the Premiership maybe its strength for the punter! – CLIVE) But outsideof this there are a number of decent opportunities.We’ll keep things simple and go 1 point to win thedivision and 1 point for promotion and that includesvia the play offs.

In the championship Swansea are 50/1 withBetfred and Bet 365 to win the division and as oneof the best teams to come out of the third tear inyears that is a cracking price. Take the 16/1 with 365to win promotion. Ipswich Town are generally 20/1and yet they only just missed out on the play offslast term and rank a decent bet. Promotion odds are7/1. But the real snip in this league is Bristol City.Gary Johnson is a hugely ambitious manager whobrought City out of League 2 to within a whisker ofthe Premier League. The offer of 25/1 against themwith extrabet is crazy and should be snapped up.William Hill offer 8/1 on them going up.

In League 1 Leeds are all the rage but representno value. Southend, Brighton and Stockport makegood bets here. In order they are best priced at 16/1,20/1 and 66/1 with their promotion odds being 6/1,13/2 and 16/1. The latter price about Stockport isquite remarkable considering how big they are towin the division. Manager Jim Gannon is veryshrewd and they will surprise a lot of people.

League 2 offers value in Shrewsbury at 13/2 towin the league but they are not worth a promotionbet. Rochdale at 11/1 come into the same category.The value lies in Exeter City at 40/1 to win theleague and 9/1 for promotion.

That is a total outlay of ten points. It won’t breakthe bank and will give us a lot of fun over thecoming months.”

Some interesting observations (and opinions)from Karl, and I’ve bowed to his greater knowledgeof the lower leagues and put the Keeling millions(I’m talking Lire here) on Karl’s selections.

I don’t know about lower leagues as it’s not myfocus, and I’ve said before, the ideal is to focus onwhat you know and try to become an expert in that!Hence I stick to the obvious – Premiership and allmajor European leagues.

Betting Strategy Revealed

Handicap manipulation –cracking the codeImust admit that I have had something of an

education into handicaps in recent months thanksin no small part to Martin Blakey answering mymany questions on these races which have beenperceived generally as imponderables and not theideal betting medium for punters to profit from.

Yes, I used to think like this, but as soon as youcan crack the code and, more importantly, THINKLIKE A TRAINER, then the clues begin to surface.We can, with Poirot moustache waxed AGAIN,unearth those horses whose trainers have beenallegedly manipulating in order to reduce theirweight. Once the weight is down they will naturallybecome more competitive and –BOOM – win at12/1! (Totally unexpected of course – NOT!)

In this article I will be focussing solely on trainer manipulation by running horses at inadequate distances.

Let me take you to the 28th July 2008 and the 415at Southwell, a 6 furlong handicap with 14 runnersdeclared – a class 5 0-75 3 year old+ handicap.

The key piece of information is the DISTANCE –6 furlongs (there are 8 furlongs in a mile).

The horse in this race that interested me from atrainer manipulation angle was called COOLSANDS, trained by J G Given.

The horse has an official rating of 60 (look backat the race type which was a 0-75. This indicates thatthis race is for horses rated 0-75 by the handicapper).

www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/newtoracing/HandicappingExplained.asp gives a great introduction tohandicapping. Here’s what they say about theofficial rating to give you a better understanding:

“The weight to be carried by a horse in ahandicap is determined by the horse’s OfficialRating. This is a figure given to every horse afterone of the following happens.

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1. The horse wins a race.

2. The horse loses 3 times and in at least one ofthese races the horse finishes in the first six positions.If it does not get a top six finish in the first three runs,then it must continue racing until it achieves a top sixposition before it receives an Official Rating.

The Official Rating is often abbreviated to OR.

Once the horse has it’s official rating, it can thencontest a handicap race.

Once the horse has an Official Rating it is used incalculating what weight it will carry in a handicaprace. The actual weight is in relation to the rest ofthe runners’ ratings. Basically, the rating will relateto pounds in weight. This means that, for example, ahorse with a rating of 55 will carry 10lbs less than ahorse in the same race which is rated at 65.”

Looking at Cool Sands previous 3 runs, I notedthat the horse ran over 1 mile on 19th June (8furlongs) finishing 9th, 1 mile 2 furlongs (10furlongs) on 11th June finishing 14th and over 1mile (8 furlongs) on 2nd June finishing 13th.

So, in his last 3 runnings, the horse has finishedterribly over 8 furlongs, and 10 furlongs. The horse’sofficial rating from its last runon the all weather (we arelooking at all weather only asSouthwell is an all weathercourse) was 70.

In the 415, the horse has anofficial rating of 60, a full 10lbslower than his last all weatherrun, and REMEMBERTODAY’S DISTANCE! Yes,the horse is being dropped to 6 furlongs from the 8 and 10 furlongs of most of itsprevious races.

Result – 1st at 12/1 –coincidence – hmmm (he saidtwiddling his Poirot moustache).

Let’s move to the 5th August now, andconcentrate on the 415 Chepstow. This is a 1 mileClass 5 0-75 3 year old + handicap.

The horse of interest here is Red Current. Today’sofficial rating is 58. In the last 3 races, the horse hasbeen running over 1mile 2 furlongs and has come8th, 10th and 7th respectively. The horse’s lastofficial rating was 63.

Result 3rd at 20/1. A very nice each way touch!And only beaten a neck and length!

Another example from the 5th August andChepstow’s 515 race. Again the key piece ofinformation we need is? Yes, distance.

This race is a 1 mile Class 5 0-70 3 year old andover handicap.

The horse of interest here is Barathea Dreams.The horse has an official rating (OR) of 61. Thehorse’s last 3 races have seen it run over 1 mile 2furlongs finishing 8th on 15th July, 1 mile 2furlongs, finishing 6th, on 14th June, and 1 mile 1furlongs, finishing 7th, on 6th June.

The horse’s last official rating on turf was 77, andtoday the horse is able to run off 61 – that’s quite adecrease isn’t it! Result – 1st 5/1.

From the above examples, there is a formula ofsorts that we can follow.

STEP 1: Take note of today’s distance. Lookingthrough the form of horses involved, note any whohave been consistently tried over longer distances(specifically during the last 3 races) The form,online, will be presented thus:

Under race conditions we are interested in thenumbers beginning 8HY (denotes heavy) 10Gdunderneath, 10 St and 9Gd. These numbers simplyrepresent the distances of the races in furlongs(remembering there’s 8 furlongs in 1 mile).

STEP 2: Check to see if there is any difference(decrease) in the Official Rating from these previous 3races and today’s official rating (Today’s official ratingis listed in the POSTDATA table accessible online).

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12

We are in a strong position if the horse has 1)been running in its last 3 races over a differentdistance to today’s AND performing badly and 2) iftoday’s official rating is significantly, or noticeablylower, than today’s (indicating the horse is droppingin the weight and theoretically has a better chance.)

Bottom line: Trainer manipulation MAY occur andabove you have a glimpse into the mechanics of apotential stable gamble. Not all of these selections willwin but the prices (and equivalent greater odds onBetfair) will be such that a decent profit will accrue(NOTE: double figure odds selections are worthbacking each way as the place payout is often decent).

Betting Strategy

Are price gapperswinning gappers?Having received a lot of feedback regarding The

Winning Gap system from James Buswell, Ithought I’d get the old Poirot moustache waxed andtry to find the basic foundations of this system,which purported to show exceptional profits.Recipients of the system have already signed a non-disclosure agreement so, not only did I need thePoirot moustache, I also needed The Colomboraincoat and Miss Marple old woman’s hat!

I did manage to find out that the system is verysimilar to my price gapper idea mentioned in aJurassic version of WRWM!

To recap then, what exactly is a price gapper betfrom my perspective? The simplest way to show youis to, well, show you!

655 NOTT

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Tasheba,4/1 The Betchworth Kid, 7/1Judgethemoment, 8/1 Yossi, 9/1 Directa´sDigger, Horseford Hill, 16/1 Salute, 25/1Turban Heights.

Simplicity really. The above is thebetting forecast in The Racing Post at thebase of the Racecard found either onlineor with the traditional newspaper. Can yousee that there is a noticeable price gapbetween Tasheba at 5/4 and TheBetchworth Kid at 4/1?

What does this tell us? Well it tells usthat the betting forecaster thinks that

Tasheeba is a standout horse capable of victory, andthe price gap indicates the other horses havesomething to find with the short priced market leader.

This, in essence, is price gapping! No formanalysis, just a degree of trust that The Racing Postbetting forecaster has given us an accurate enoughinterpretation of the race (and bear in mind that thisis just an independent opinion and NOT the prices ofthe horses). The actual betting prices will appearfrom the bookmakers or betting exchanges. Users ofthe 16/1 ‘Follow the Money’ system know that thebetting forecast in The Racing Post can act as a goodcomparator, when applied to the live market tounearth perceived market gambles.

Is the blanket backing of price gappersprofitable (or could it be made profitablewith a little tweaking?)

I have resurrected this selection method, as I havesaid, in reaction to the release of The Winning Gapsystem. So I have not been keeping as keen an eyeon potential price gappers’ performances as much asI would like. Thankfully I have managed to collectold Racing Posts and it becomes clear to me that the‘place only’ market may be the market to concentrateon (i.e. we are backing the selections, in an 8 runnerrace, to finish in the 1st 3, and NOT necessarily win).

There has been a frustrating amount of seconditiswith blanket backing of selections without anyfurther analysis.

Alternatives‘Place only’ betting, for me, looks to be an ideal

option for this type of betting.

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A look at my blog at www.back-lay-trade-horses-football.blogspot.com will show you now that I try toanalyse the race types and ground conditions aroundwhich potential price gappers appear. And it seems tobe paying off, albeit at short place only odds.

A different take on price gappers?My thanks must go to Gerald Simpson for

volunteering his take on price gapping. It makesinteresting reading and I hope it gives you some ideas.

Checking the Odds – Gerald Simpson This system was designed for all races except

for apprentice only, ladies only, conditional jockeys, with a maximum of 14 runners and aminimum of 5 runners.

The forecast prices for the first and secondfavourites are noted and the points taken from thetable overleaf. Ignore all horses down to be riddenby a 7lb claiming apprentice. Also try to ensure it isnot a two horse race and that the price of the thirdfavourite does not show a large gap from the second.If it does do not use the race.

The best bets for this system are those whichshow the highest points difference between thefirst and second favourite. Our selection is theforecast favourite showing a difference of at leastFOUR points and a possible maximum of 12points! Going above this maximum is permissiblebut you must be aware that the favourite is likelyto be a short price.

ExamplesFavourite Evens (1) 2nd Favourite 4/1 (18) Difference 17Favourite 2/1 (10) 2nd Favourite 11/4 (14) Difference 4Favourite 1/2 (1) 2nd Favourite 3/1 (15) Difference 14Favourite 7/4 (8) 2nd Favourite 5/2 (13) Difference 5

Make certain that you consider the odds of the3rd Favourite in order to be aware of the two horserace scenario.

Go to next Page for Points Table – CHECKINGTHE ODDS.

Forecast odds Decimal Odds POINTS

1/1 or odds on 2.00 111/10 or 21/20 2.10 26/5 2.20 35/4 2.26 4

11/8 2.34 56/4 2.48 613/8 2.64 77/4 2.72 815/8 2.86 92/1 3.00 1085/40 3,10 119/4 3.25 125/2 3.50 1311/4 3.75 143/1 4.00 1510/3 4.30 167/2 4.50 174/1 5.00 189/2 5.50 195/1 6.00 2011/2 6.50 216/1 7.00 2213/2 7.50 237/1 8.00 2415/2 8.50 258/1 9.00 2617/2 9.50 279/1 10.00 2810/1 11.00 29

Here are some very recent results – those of youwith old copies of The Racing Post will be able tocheck these selections.

Checking the Odds – Recent results.Starry Sky....................................................1st 8/11 Once a Gulch.................................................1st 9/2Vilna .........................................................2nd 10/11 Holiday Cocktail ...........................................1st 4/1 Olympic Dream............................................2nd 7/2 Thumbs up ...................................................2nd 7/4 Asker Tua ....................................................1st 4/11Riolina ...........................................................1st 3/1 Like for like...................................................1st 6/5 Casual Garcia ................................................1st 5/6 Galpin Junior ...............................................1st 8/15

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Tilsworth Charlie................................................lostLe Toreador ........................................................lost On our way....................................................1st 2/1 Certain Promise.............................................1st 4/6All the Good......................................................LostMultidimensional ..........................................1st 2/1Seminole............................................................LostRainbow View...............................................1st 6/4Borasco..........................................................1st 6/1Unbiased............................................................LostRowan Lodge ..............................................1st 11/2Trip the Light ..............................................1st 15/823 runners 15 winners 8 losers

A decent return I’m sure you’ll agree – I haveonly just received this system but will be keen tointegrate it into my blog. It is a little easier thanJames Buswell’s Winning Gap System which mademy brain hurt!

SYSTEMS AND TIPSTERS UPDATEFrankie Franks all weather investments

Many thanks to Brian Armstrong for his continual tracking of the 2 plans which are includedin this system:

Betting planOnly 9 selections in the last 3 months but 5

winners. Overall position since testing started:

Selections 130

Winners 57

Strike rate 43.8%

ROI 20.4%

All weather investmentsA 74 point profit to level stakes is the good news.

Even better returns using 10% of a rolling bank,BUT with the latter you will notice on the left handside of the results analysis using Fasttrackplansspreadsheets, a losing run of 18. The question withlosing runs like these is, when you are experiencingthem in real time, how long do you stay with themuntil you give up? Well, hindsight would have told

us to tough it out. A strike rate of near 25% and agood spread of winning prices augurs well.

www.kenneth-j-wilson-racingservices.co.uk

5 from 5 successful lays in August to date, and 5from 8 in July with winners at 11/8, 11/8 and 7/2 SP

Results available for inspection at the site.

www.threekeyracing.co.uk2 from 2 in August and 10 from 13 in July keep

this impressive lay system ticking along. No laysover 3.5 in price ensure liability control.

www.winningracingtips.co.ukPoor recent performance and no updates on site

since June 2008. Check the website for results updates.

www.xlays.co.uk7 point profit since last newsletter – again results

available at the site for you to determine whetherlaying at average lay odds of 5 suits you.

www.betplanner.co.ukI am unable to bring up this site.

www.Little-Acorns-Laying.comMAY +27.78 JUNE: +14.59 JULY: +13.66 .

Slow and steady is the way to go with thissystem. If you want get rich quick, well gosomewhere else! Consistently profitable thus far.

Andrew Kiernan, the brains behind this FibonacciStaking Lay System adds some comments of his own:

In regards to Section 3 of the New Little Acornsbook, I now have the ideal staking plan for thosewanting to safeguard their betting bank.

It the same as the previous one (Fibonacci) butwith one less stake amount. I have cut it from 9 to 8,but with a fundamental change to the betting bank,the purpose being to help followers remain in thetheir comfort zone.

As we know based on £10 lay unit the Fibonaccisequence goes;

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10 – 20 – 30 – 50 – 80 – 130 – 210 – 350 – Totalin Sequence is: £870.

Now what I have suggested based on the above,is a betting bank of £1,740 (2x £870). Therefore, itwould take almost 3 losing sequences to exhaust thisbank which is highly unlikely. Now you may bewondering how I arrived at nearly 3 losingsequences? Well, if we were to lay at the maximumprice allowed for Little Acorns of evens (2.0) andhad 3 losing sequences, then of course that wouldequal £2,610 (3 x £870). However, the average laystake for Little Acorns is 1.76. So taking one losingsequence of £870 x 0.76 = £661.20. So the averageamount lost on every one losing sequence would be£661.20. Divide this by our recommended bettingbank of £1,740 for £10 lays would equal 2.63. Sothe betting bank could take over 2 and half losingsequences. More than enough to protect our bank.

Now I see that the Gofibonnaci system had alosing sequence of 10 in July, according to theirwebsite and still made 239 points profit since 1stSept 2007. Now, Little Acorns avoided this losingrun by implementing the Beaten Favourite filter. Sothis filter together with the ability to withstandnearly 3 losing sequences of 8 really makes it asclose too foolproof as possible. I am sure you wouldagree it’s a long term profit maker, albeit slow. Thehardest job for me is to persuade followers that thisis a slow burner, hence I keep reminding them of thetitle of the Book? If they get nervous by losing laysof up to 5 or 6 then they are starting with stakes toohigh to begin with and should pull back to a levelwithin their comfort zone, i.e. £5 or even £2 unitlays. They will then make steady growth, as I amsure you will feel having followed the ‘CrackingBetfair’ system, that backing ‘odds on’ selections,the sequence usually comes to an end after 5 or 6.”

A useful insight into this type of laying and thenew improvements being made to further strengthenthe system.

Target profit perday systems www.sirracingsystem.com

Results are now updated on the website and lookimpressive but I must reiterate the warning regardingthis system which seeks to win a target amount per

day in a cycle of 3 bets using loss retrieval shouldbets 1 and/or 2 lose. There are a lot of odds onqualifiers and, simply put, odds on prices and lossretrieval don’t mix, unless you want stakes toincrease rapidly.

I notice a couple of winners at 1/4 and 1/5. Nowif these selections were bets 2 or 3 in the sequence,the stakes are going to escalate beyond acomfortable level.

www.computapik.comI reiterate what I said last month regarding the

results for this ‘stop at a winner’ system.

Results on the website are verifiable BUT do heedthe warning from last month’s newsletter. Any selectionshown as losing, or coming 2nd, has in fact lost 9points, as that is the maximum stake used per day.

Bear that in mind, as at first glance the resultslook superb. Remember too that there are generally 3 selections per day and we stop at a winner. Soprofits will be proportionate to amount staked, andwhether the bet is the 1st, 2nd or 3rd of the day. Still,it has been holding up well, and is simplicity itself. Itwould be very interesting to note year-end figures.

135 points profit since tests began (bear in mind9 points are put at risk daily) is impressive enough.

The FavouritesPhenomenon Systemwww.fpsystem.co.uk

Having asked for testers, they will now berenewing testing of this “follow the favs” system by using the system creator’s daily advices. Mytester has experienced –13.5 points loss thus far forhis test period since the last newsletter. It remains tobe seen whether the input of the system creator willturn a profit. A system unsuited to me, as I don’thave the patience. I hope for better returns to reporton next month.

Laying systemswww.quietachievers.co.uk

Brian’s lay service has been ticking along nicely.

July was a very good month – 17 from 20 layssuccessful at 85% strike rate and a level stakes profit

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(LSP) of 13 points (65%). August so far shows 12from 13 and over 5 points profit. Winning runs of 14and 9 in the past six weeks.

From Jan 7th it’s 209 from 249 at around 84%,with a LSP of 72 points – the set bank of £1,000 hasmore than trebled and the liability bank of £1,000has almost doubled.

At £30 per month the progress is consistent andworthy of continued monitoring. My initial faith inBrian’s laying skills seems to have been founded forthis value-for-money tipping service.

Free trialsAnother look at sites offering a free trial.

www.web.protipsmembers.comJuly totals for the month +10.38 at level stakes

and +35.88 at advised points stakes.

August to date -23.75 at level stakes and -90.35at advised points stakes.

From the same guys comes.

What To Lay www.whattolay.com

July totals for the month -0.4 at level stakes and+6.67 to advised staking plan.

August to date +13.45 at level stakes and +25.20to advised staking plan.

The unique subscription structure of What To Laymeant that unfortunately for them, but fortunatelyfor the members, they get August free as the servicemade a loss in July, albeit a small one. “If we don’twin they don’t pay!”

www.mdlbetting.co.uk

www.punterprofits.com

www.probandit.comAdd to these sites www.betting4profits.co.uk run

by Paul Waddington. Paul offers a 14 day trial and iscurrently 90 points up since year start which is

respectable. The service covers football, darts,snooker and golf.

MiscellaneousMONEY TALKS FROM www.bettingsystem.info

and Sportsworld Publishing.

After a promising start, this variant of Follow theMoney has continued to disappoint and is not asystem I want to spend time with at present. I willrevisit for the beginning of the Jumps I think.

www.thetradingplan.co.ukI have been in regular contact with Martin

Blakey, the handicap expert behind this ‘Follow theMoney’ system because his results did not tally withthose experienced by readers. From a personalperspective, having spoken to Martin I do notconsider him to be massaging results to suit his ownends. He has simply included only bets which in HISEXPERIENCE (and not necessarily, I wouldventure, following strictly the criteria of the manual)qualify. Here’s his answer:

“The first thing I do with the plan is mark off allpotential qualifiers well before racing. Then when thelive on course market opens I can easily identifythose horses that I need to monitor to see if theybecome a definite bet.

After looking at the live market I eliminate anyrace if there is more than one qualifier as I amlooking for one stand out qualifier that is wellsupported on course.

As well as any qualifier meeting the pricecomparison criteria, I am also looking for a horsethat is also well backed on course. Sometimes ahorse may easily meet the price criteria but isactually weak on course and drifts in the marketwhich suggests that a big run is not expected. Ialways leave out horses that drift on course as thelive market is a very reliable guide to how a horsecan be expected to perform, especially when usedwith this strategy.

In summary, I am looking for a horse that meetsall the plan criteria and is also supported on courseto a level that meets with the strict rules of the plan.”

As to performance USING MARTIN’S

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CRITERIA, the winners can be inspected at the sitewww.thetradingplan.co.uk/results.php.

Martin may be offering a handicap specificservice in the future which I will be keen to trial andreport to you on.

Premier RacingMy thanks must go to Jeff Edwards who has

asked me to warn readers about Premier Racing ofPetchworth, Sussex:

“Premier Racing; the outfit from Petworth, West Sussex has now given out 21 losers on the troton their SAEED BIN SUROOR telephone line after a 7/2 winner which was preceded by a losing run of 7 selections!”

Other systems to perform poorly includemafiosibetfair which has produced a 4 point losssince July – no reward for a lot of effort!

Systems and tipsters to monitor

Include Matthew Hallett mentioned in June’snewsletter, www.tipsforhorseracing.co.uk/ who

provide straight back bets for horse racing andMichelle Kang.

I have been drawn to Michelle’s services because of their realistic profit targets and herlogical systems. I have emailed her asking for a fulltrial of all services. She is a stay-at-home motherwho really doesn’t know horse racing or footballBUT works using stats and the law of averages toprofit. So her approach to profiting from Betfair ispurely from a numbers perspective rather than any“insider” knowledge.

I am especially interested in her football systemat www.footballinvestorsclub.com andwww.horselayingprofessionals.com/ I am awarethese services might be intermittent but they areworth looking into.

Ones to notewww.winbetriches.co.uk

Results fall into the “too good to be true”

category, and my gut instinct is that these results arenot strictly correct (I stand to be corrected of course).

Predominantly short priced selections, andhandsome profits since January 2008, I am aware of the fact that a high strike rate must be maintained with these selections in order to realise a continued profit. The jumps season is upon us and there is no evidence regarding performance in the winter. I would venture that it is a lot more difficult to actually profit from shorties withobstacles and inclement weather and heavy ground on occasion.

I am reluctant to pay £60 per month and will try toblag a trial as I have an uneasy feel about this service.

And finallyWith my recent return to Guernsey I was not

able to monitor my personal systems and theiraccompanying performance graphs so I will try to update by next month. This also applies to some of the betting systems mentioned last month such asRefuse to Lose and the Cambridge Target System.

The Patriarch Presents...

Revealed: a simple way to profit fromfootball perms

Editorial note: The spreadsheet packages Ihighlighted earlier in the football systems articlemade mention of permutations. The Patriarch haswritten an excellent article on permutations below,but before you get your gnashers into that, here’s alittle background.

The following table offers an excellentintroduction into permutation betting.

Looking at an example above. We have selected 7

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teams and we want to back these 7 teams in trebles.Using the above table, we have 35 possiblepermutations when backing 7 teams in trebles.Placing this as a bet is simple. Just write the seventeams names and then write 35 trebles at £x pertreble = £y stake.

Do take a look at the following links which offera superb introduction to permutations.

www.footballadvisers.com/football_betting_guide/permutations.html

www.duncanwil.co.uk/permcom.html

www.sports-betting-student.co.uk/guide/permutations.asp

When we talk about the fixed odds coupon andsee 1, 2, and X, what do these stand for?

1 = HOME WIN

2 = AWAY WIN

X = DRAW

Without further ado, on to the Patriarch…

“I’m no stranger to fixed odds football and canrecall the old days when games were not pricedindividually, but rather prices were set for a certainbet: such as 60-1 for three draws or 50-1 for fouraways. You’ll note how generous these odds werecompared with today’s ones. Indeed I can rememberhow punters complained when the 60-1 for threedraws was reduced slightly when bookmakersrealised that they had over-priced the bet.

Today, of course, the odds are in the region of 30-1 to 40-1 depending on the individual draw prices ofthe matches selected. Yes, we had it quite good then!The normal perm then would have been 3 from 4 in four lines, 3 from 5 in 10 lines or 3 from 6 intwenty lines. Today we can do something different...

How good is your forecasting skill? Doyou reckon you could correctly predicttwo draws from three?

If so, you can still get paid a treble dividend,something that was impossible in the old days. First,just a little simple mathematics. Three matches canhave 27 possible outcomes – 3 times 3 times 3. So,if you forecast these matches as three draws youhave one chance of being all correct, eight of being

all wrong and eighteen of being partly correct. Theeighteen partly correct lines consist of twelve with 2errors and six with 1 error. The twelve lines with 2errors would produce very little profit, if any,depending on the prices, but the six lines with 1error will certainly make a good profit. So, that’swhat we need – an all-correct line or a line with 2correct. The perm we enter for 3 draws thereforeconsists of these seven lines:

1. xxx.

2. xx2.

3. xx1.

4. 1xx.

5. 2xx.

6. x1x.

7. x2x.

So, I say again, if we have our three draws allcorrect, or much more likely, have only two correctand one wrong, then we still make a good profit.One last bit of advice for this little perm. For yourchoice of matches take games (which will probablybe the case anyway) where the three possible resultsare all priced at odds against. The draw will alwaysbe around 9-4 or 5-2 and the home and away oddsshould be in the 11-8 to 7-4 range. That way thereturn will always average about 25-1.

My next perm, if you can call it that, wouldcertainly not have been possible in the early days offixed odds football betting. Indeed, some bettingshop managers might question it today, but it isperfectly legal and acceptable.

It’s a ‘Stop At A Winner’ approach, and onceagain it actually pays out best if we have an error.That is something we can all easily do! We arelooking for two safe home wins – let’s say ManUnited to beat Man City at 4-6 and Chelsea to beat Fulham at 1-3. We write out two betting slips as follows. Choose your own stakes, but keep thesame proportions:

Slip 1: Man United to win, £100 staked. If no win,Chelsea to win £300 staked.

Slip 2: Chelsea to win, £100 staked. If no win, ManUnited to win £300 staked.

That’s it. Now surely they both can’t fail to win,

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but we don’t mind if one fails to do so. Let’s see why. If Man U win and Chelsea don’t this iswhat happens:

On Slip 1, we win £67 and £300 is returned,making a total return of £467. On Slip 2, we lose£100 on Chelsea but win £200 on Man U giving areturn of £500. Total returns are £967 on a possibleoutlay of £800.

The other possibility is that Man U lose andChelsea win. This time on Slip 1 we lose £100 andwin the same amount, giving a return of £400. OnSlip 2, we win £33 and have £300 returned, makinga total return of £433. Overall profit is £33.

And finally, if they both win we make a profit of£67 on Slip 1 and £33 on Slip 2, a total of £100 withthe other stakes returned. For the sake of comparisonlet’s see what would happen if we had the equivalentnormal level stake of £400 to win on each.

If Man U won and Chelsea didn’t we’d win £267and lose £400 – a loss of £133. If Chelsea won andMan U didn’t we’d win £133 and lose £400 – a lossof £267. Altogether, a very different scenario fromour profitable Stop At A Winner perm. And you’llhave noticed that I’ve used very short prices. Justthink of the profit that would be possible if we’dused bigger prices.

Now for a great reduced perm that could be usedfor homes, aways, draws – or any combination ofthem – and indeed could be applied to horses too,lest we forget all about them this month. It covers 7selections in trebles, 4-folds and 5-folds. Full coverof these would take 91 lines. Our reduced coverperm uses only 23 lines, and still manages to givesome good guarantees.

Here’s how to do it. Number your selections 1-7,and then enter the following:

Trebles 1, 2, 3. 1, 2, 7. 1, 3, 7. 1, 4, 5. 1, 5, 6. 2, 3, 5. 2, 3, 7. 2, 4, 6. 3, 4, 6. 4, 5, 7. 4, 6, 7. 5, 6, 7.

12 lines.

4-folds. 1, 2, 3, 4. 1, 2, 5, 6. 1, 3, 6, 7. 1, 4, 5, 7 1, 2, 3, 5,. 2, 4, 6, 7 3, 4, 5, 6.

7 lines.

5-folds 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. 1, 2, 3, 6, 7. 1, 4, 5, 6, 7.2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

4 lines.

Guarantees3 winners – Maybe a treble.

4 winners – at least a treble, maybe a 4-fold.

5 winners – at least a 4-fold and 3 trebles.

6 winners – at least a 5-fold, 3 4-folds and 6 trebles.

7 winners – all winning lines.

If you don’t wish to cover them all you mightchoose to do just trebles in 12 lines, 4-folds in 7lines or 5-folds in 4 lines. And remember, the sameapplies to horses too.

AND FINALLY – an important messagefrom Nick Laight – Publisher

“Charlie Wright ‘stole’ thisonline cash generatorformula from an Americanmulti-millionaire in March2006... Now cheques for£1,500–£3,000 drop throughmy door every month.

I guarantee that ANYONEcan do this from home. Ittakes just a few hours a weekat the computer. No technicalstuff or gobbledegook...” Charlie Wright – Biz Opp Jungle

You know, I can’t believe more people aren’ttalking about this exciting info publishing

business. Especially when you realise how easy it isto start, fun to run and has the potential to make youa very good income. It is a very special businessidea for me as I was lucky enough to get involvedwith it from the beginning.

And so far this year, this strategy has helped megenerate more than £5 million in sales!

Now I’m not suggesting for one moment that youcould make that kind of money – it has taken meyears to develop and I have a head start... but I know

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that it is possible for a complete beginner toeventually bring in between £1,500 and £3,000 amonth. In fact that’s what Charlie is doing right nowthanks to this exact same strategy. And he’s onlyspending around 3-5hrs per week on it!

You see, this can be run as a part-time business andall you would need is a basic PC with Internet access.You really don’t need any online experience (trust me,Charlie finds it difficult to turn a computer on!).

What’s more, the market is wide open, yet mostpeople – including a lot of big businesses and seriousbusiness opportunity seekers – just haven’t cottonedon to how easy, fun and profitable it can be.

That’s their loss and your gain! If you want toknow more, then check out this link:www.bizoppjungle.com/cashgenerator/

Also, you can listen to an interview I did withCharlie on this same business idea by going towww.whatreallymakesmoney.com/articles/20070319

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It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representativescannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on

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