By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaeda-5

Zawahiri’s Strategic Window of Opportunity.

The key question here could be: do we see the prelude of an AQSL strategic shift into the next strategic phase, to include the attempt to get Daesh back in their orbit?

C: I would argue that the current events: reportedly wounded Baghdadi who is replaced with, Abu Alaa Afri, who leans toward reconciliation with rival extremist group al-Qaeda and its Syrian affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and prefers that Daesh/ISIS’s leadership structure is composed half of Arabs and half of foreign members of the group, is permissible with Zawahiri’s intent. He, Afri will likely be the Caliph, leader of Daesh if Baghdadi is incapable of conducting or dies, by US – airstrike- hands, as I predicted.” Moreover, it is believed that Afri, when senior al-Qaeda operatives Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and Abu Ayyub al-Masri were killed in 2010, was Osama bin Laden’s preferred choice to become emir of al-Qaeda in Iraq, the group which eventually morphed into ISIS. Zawahiri could get what he wants; an allays and former AQSL protégé as lead of Daesh, and from below the radar influence and give directions to it. This would make him again the hidden leader but this time from a giant Islamic Jihadist force. All is still permissive to his and AQ original plans. Contrary to speculations of him being nullified the silence for the last months, likely used to set favorable conditions to the what if Baghdadi falls away, could well pay-off. Moreover likely many had it all wrong, a nightmare jihadist coalition could be formed.

To my persisting thinking outside the box arguments:

ISIS Replace Injured Leader Baghdadi With Former Physics TeacherBY JACK MOORE 4/22/15 AT 5:33 PM

ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was reportedly injured in an airstrike in March, meaning someone else had to take up the mantel. “After Baghdadi’s wounding, he [Afri] Abu Alaa Afri, the self-proclaimed caliph’s deputy has begun to head up Daesh [arabic term for ISIS] with the help of officials responsible for other portfolios,” confirms Hashimi. “He will be the leader of Daesh if Baghdadi dies.” While details about Afri’s personality are limited, it is believed that he leans toward reconciliation with rival extremist group al-Qaeda and its Syrian affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and prefers that ISIS’s leadership structure is composed half of Arabs and half of foreign members of the group.

The Islamic State’s temporary leader is a former Iraqi physics teacher located in the country’s second-biggest city, Mosul, the adviser to the Iraqi government on ISIS has revealed. (Image Abu Alaa al-Afri ??)

Meanwhile, some security experts have cautioned the United States and allies, that while focusing on

the Islamic State, they should not lower the guard on al-Qaeda even though its leader Ayman al Zawahiri has been relatively quiet for many months. The experts from Atlantic Council

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panel recently shared their views at the Washington, D.C. think tank, during a discussion. Bruce Hoffman, a long-time counterterrorism expert and professor at Georgetown University, said Zawahiri is unpredictable and he may be planning something,

Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (Daesh/ISIS) are competing with each other for recruitment on the South Asian subcontinent; One Hadith instructs true believers to join the nation from the east with black flags “even if you have to crawl over ice.” Although the idea of Ghazwa-e-Hind as a war against the contemporary Indian state has not been universally accepted, it continues to feature in the jihadist discourse..

While the Islamic State group gets most of the attention largely because its penchant for gruesome propaganda, the Nusra Front quietly has become one of the key players in the four-year civil war, compromising other rebel groups the West may try to work with while increasingly enforcing its own brutal version of Islamic law.

A Qatar-based Taliban leader has claimed that all Al Qaeda operatives have left Afghanistan and have either gone back home or moved into war zones in Syria, Iraq or Yemen

“They haven’t gone to the front line, they are just there waiting, but waiting for what?” We keep on hearing that something big will be happening, but no one knows the details except the very top commanders.”

The foreign contingents, including Afghans, Pakistanis and Iraqis, have been going into Syria for the past three months, according to activists who had been monitoring the build-up

Earlier this week, several rebel groups announced that they had established a new coalition named Jaysh al Fateh, the “Battle of Victory” coalition. In addition to Al Nusrah, the coalition includes Ahrar al Sham,  Jund al Aqsa, Liwa al Haqq, Jaysh al Sunna, Ajnad al Sham, and Faylaq al Sham.   The coalition has the city of Idlib in its crosshairs

The Al Nusrah Front, Jund al Aqsa, Ahrar al Sham, Liwa al Haqq, Jaish al Sunna, Ajnad al Sham and Faylaq al Sham have established a new coalition under the name of Jaish al Fateh for the Idlib offensive.

"The Nusra Front will most likely outlast ISIS in Syria, and will represent a severe and existential threat to the aspirations of the Syrian people in terms of a pluralistic, democratic society," said Fawaz A. Gerges, director of the Middle East Center at the London School of Economics, using an alternate acronym for the extremist group

The Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) is participating in a newly launched rebel offensive at Jisr al Shughur in Syria’s northwestern province of Idlib. The TIP is operating alongside the Al Nusrah Front, al Qaeda’s official branch in Syria, and a slew of other rebel and jihadist groups in the offensive.

C: At the other supporting the main effort fronts: Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has begun to partner with local tribes in Yemen’s eastern Hadramawt governorate and is consolidating control over territory. AQAP militants continue to hold parts of al Mukalla city, the capital of Hadramawt, and recently seized Dhabah oil terminal in al Shihr, along with military installations. AQAP has delegated governance to local tribal councils. Moreover, Al Qaeda's Yemen affiliate is expanding its footprint amid the chaos in the country and now providing guidance to the Somalia terror group that claimed responsibility for last week's deadly terror attack at a university, an intelligence source told Fox News.  Hayden: Fall Of Yemen Means "Physical Pressure We Had On al-Qaeda Is Reduced. The Saudis have their attention fully focused on trying to defeat the Shia Houthi rebels and their allies, or at least bomb them towards the negotiating table. Their other enemy in Yemen, AQAP, is now a

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secondary priority, although a Saudi adviser tells they have not forgotten about them. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has taken advantage of the chaos in Yemen to gain territory, U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter said April 8. He said the U.S. sees AQAP “making direct gains on the ground there as they try to take territory, seize territory in these battle lines, which involve actually several factions.”

In September 2014, Zawahiri announced the formation of al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), which his ally Maulana Asim Umar reinforced with a call for global jihad by Indian Muslims. An AQIS spokesman explained on September 8, 2014 that AQIS seeks to raise the “flag of jihad” in the whole region, and that while they seek to “liberate” Indian Muslims from Hindus, Pakistan is its “doorstep” for jihad. Al-Qaeda appears to be attempting to maintain support among radical Islamists in the subcontinent by directing its ire at India. By focusing on India, al-Qaeda hopes to retain the support of Pakistan-backed groups, which interpret the Ghazwa-e-Hind Hadith to mean re-conquest of Hindu India without hitting Muslim Pakistan. Even in Zawahiri’s statement about AQIS, Pakistan was mentioned only as a country that needed to be brought under full Sharia rule while Hindu India was portrayed as the enemy of Islam. One Hadith instructs true believers to join the nation from the east with black flags “even if you have to crawl over ice.”1 Another says, “Armies carrying black flags will come from Khurasan, no power will be able to stop them and they will finally reach Eela (the al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem) where they will erect their flags.”2 This prediction of final victory was a convenient recruitment tool for al-Qaeda when it was firmly established in Khurasan during the Taliban era. Abu Hurairah quoted the Prophet Muhammad as saying, “[d]efinitely, one of your troops would do a war with Hindustan. Allah would grant success to those warriors, as far as they would bring their kings by dragging them in chains. And Allah would forgive those warriors (by the Blessing of this Great War). And when those Muslims would return, they would find Isa Ibn Maryam [Jesus] in Syria.” Abu Hurairah, one of Muhammad’s companions, declared that if he could find that battle in India, he would sell his possessions and participate himself

On 15 July 2014, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has purportedly released a statement rejecting the Islamic State’s caliphate. And the group rejects the Islamic State’s demand that all jihadists now swear bayat (or allegiance) to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the self-proclaimed new caliph. We “confirm that we still adhere to our pledge of allegiance to our sheikh and emir, Ayman al Zawahiri, since it is a Sharia-accorded pledge of allegiance that remains hanging on our necks, and we do not see what requires use to break it,” AQIM’s statement reads. Next, AQIM reveals an interesting detail that was not publicly known. The al Qaeda branch apparently tried to help mediate the jihadists’ feud in private. “It is not enough to have hope and be silent, so we sought in efforts to mend the conditions in secret, together with our brothers in the other jihadi fronts, in our belief that the disputes of the mujahideen should be resolved in secret, away from the ears and eyes of lurking enemy media.” Other al Qaeda parties, including veteran jihadists dispatched by al Qaeda’s senior leadership to Syria, have assisted in the mediation efforts as well. And in an audio message recorded in late February, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) said that it had “sought reconciliation between the mujahideen” and was “still trying our best in it.” So, accepting the group’s words at face value, AQIM joined this international coalition in attempting to resolve the ongoing dispute.

There has been a marked intensification of conflict across the Sahara and the Sahel. This has created a new normal, where ethnic tensions are reinforced, religious divisions are more pronounced and crises are less local. The prospect of cross-fertilisation between Boko Haram, AQIM and other regional militant organisations is a nightmare scenario. The emir of

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al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Abdelmalek Droukdel, says their “victories were truly grand, and will continue to be grand.” But they will be even “grander” if they remain unified and “refrain from looting.” The latter is most likely a reference to the guidelines the jihadists - 1 put in place after they forced Bashar al Assad’s forces out of the city. Moreover, Droukdel says, the jihadists have dedicated themselves “to spreading and achieving Islam’s justice” instead of fighting among themselves over border crossings and territory destroyed by Assad’s “barrel bombs,” or the “crusader coalition’s” missiles

LWJ 24 April, The Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) is participating in a newly launched rebel offensive at Jisr al Shughur in Syria’s northwestern province of Idlib. The TIP is operating alongside the Al Nusrah Front, al Qaeda’s official branch in Syria, and a slew of other rebel and jihadist groups in the offensive. These groups are operating under the “Battle of Victory” coalition, which is modeled after the Jaysh al Fateh coalition that took over Idlib city last month. Fighting alongside Al Nusrah and the TIP in the “Battle of Victory” coalition is Ahrar al Sham, Ansar Sham, Jaysh al Islam, Jabhat Ansar al Din (which includes the Chechen-led group Jaysh al Muhajireen wal Ansar, the Moroccan-led group Harakat Sham al Islam, and the Syrian group Harakat Fajr al Sham al Islamiyya), Junud al Sham, and many others. Several of these groups are within al Qaeda’s network, including Ahrar al Sham, Jabhat Ansar al Din, and Junud al Sham. This new coalition is assaulting the Assad regime near Jisr al Shughur and Al Mastoumah in Idlib, as well as the Al Ghab plain in Hama, and in Latakia province. (For more on these offensives, see LWJ report, Al Nusrah Front, allies launch new offensives against Syrian regime) In a newly released video by Junud al Sham, the group mentions a “Katibat Turkistani,” or “Turkistani Battalion.” This name is what the TIP fights under in Syria. Several jihadist Twitter accounts have confirmed that “Turkistanis” are fighting in Jisr al Shughur. The TIP has long operated in Syria alongside the Al Nusrah Front in Idlib. The Turkistan Islamic Party also operates in China as well as Central and South Asia and is thought to have scores of fighters in Pakistan’s tribal areas and in Afghanistan.

A Qatar-based Taliban leader has claimed that all Al Qaeda operatives have left Afghanistan and have either gone back home or moved into war zones in Syria, Iraq or Yemen. Asked about Al Qaeda’s top operative Ayman Al Zawahiri, he said no one knew of his whereabouts. “Afghanistan is such a big country. Everyone knows there are mountains and valleys in Afghanistan so it is difficult to know where he is,” said Dr Mohamed Naeem

About reports that Taliban leader Mullah Omar was dead, Naeem said it was just a rumour. “He is alive and doing his work. He is leading the Holy War against the occupants and keeps meeting his aides”. When asked if Taliban still had links with Al Qaeda, Naeem said its

leaders and functionaries had all left Afghanistan and had either gone back home or moved into war zones in Syria, Iraq or Yemen. “There is not even a single Al Qaeda leader left in Afghanistan.”

“They haven’t gone to the front line, they are just there waiting, but waiting for what?” We keep on

hearing that something big will be happening, but no one knows the details except the very top commanders.”The foreign contingents, including Afghans, Pakistanis and Iraqis, have been going into Syria for the past three months, according to activists who had been monitoring the build-up. There

1 https://azelin.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/dr-ayman-al-e1ba93awc481hirc4ab-22general-guidelines-for-the-work-of-a-jihc481dc4ab22-en.pdf

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are extremely pertinent questions and would matter a great deal to India in particular as the war in Afghanistan directly affects us. In the month of September 2014 a video with a message from the al Qaeda chief Ayman Al-Zawahiri announced the commencement of operations in the sub-continent under the banner of al Qaeda in the sub-continent. Today increasingly it appears that the AQIS was just a hoax and announced with an intention of keeping people guessing and also trying to tell the ISIS that it would not have a cake walk in Afghanistan. HOWEVER, America claimed to have seen off the al-Qaeda branch, but Kim Sengupta hears a different story The group is said to have attracted high-calibre foreign jihadists. Fighters, including a fresh influx of foreign jihadists, have been seen gathering in bases across the provinces of Idlib and Aleppo. They pledge allegiance to Khorasan, an al-Qaeda branch which was supposedly crippled by American bombing in one of the first days of the air campaign launched against Isis. Khorasan is a group of senior al-Qaeda operatives, which is based in the Aleppo region in Syria. The core supposedly comes from those who sought refuge in Pakistan following the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. It is also said to have attracted high-calibre foreign jihadists, especially bomb-makers. “A few people we know in Khorasan say they are waiting for the order to start ‘shooting the birds’ and killings would begin.

C: "The Nusra Front will most likely outlast ISIS in Syria, and will represent a severe and existential threat to the aspirations of the Syrian people in terms of a pluralistic, democratic society," said Fawaz A. Gerges, director of the Middle East Center at the London School of Economics, using an alternate acronym for the extremist group

As Islamic State group gets attention, the al-Qaida-linked Nusra Front quietly rises in Syria While the Islamic State group gets most of the attention largely because its penchant for gruesome propaganda, the Nusra Front quietly has become one of the key players in the four-year civil war, compromising other rebel groups the West may try to work with while increasingly enforcing its own brutal version of Islamic law. In addition to the Al Nusrah Front, the “Battle of Victory” coalition includes Ahrar al Sham, Jaysh al Islam, Ansar al Din, and Ansar al Sham. Other groups may be participating in the battle as well

As I briefed the NATO community over the last six months: 16th of Aries 1375 AH (solar) i.e. 4th April 1996 AD is a momentous day in the history of our Muslim people. Nearly two decades ago on this same faithful day, one thousand and five hundred scholars, dignitaries and Jihadi leaders of Afghanistan approved Mullah Mohammad Umar ‘Mujahid’ as the leader of the Islamic Emirate, gave an oath of allegiance to him and conferred the title of ‘Amir-ul-Momineen’ on him i.e. leader of the pious believers. --- Afghan Taliban publish Mullah Omar biography -- When oath of allegiance has been taken for two caliphs, kill the one for whom the oath was taken later. Hadith, Book 19, Number 4568: Narrated AbuSa'id al-Khudri: The Messenger of Allah said.

-- ...He who swears allegiance to a Caliph should give him the pledge of his hand and the sincerity of his heart (i.e. submit to him both outwardly as well as inwardly). He should obey him to the best of his capacity. If another man comes forward (as a claimant to Caliphate), disputing his authority, they (the Muslims) should behead the latter....[Sahih Muslim, Book 20, Hadith #4546]

Sep 2014, The other day, al-Qaeda’s leader Ayman al-Zawahiri announced the establishment of a new al-Qaeda affiliate, “al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent.” What struck me about the

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announcement was not so much the creation of a new al-Qaeda franchise in the subcontinent—al-Qaeda has long had ties to the region and the affiliate’s new leader Asim Umar is already a known al-Qaeda insider—but rather the way Zawahiri framed the group’s creation. In his introductory remarks, Zawahiri stressed that the new group was, like al-Qaeda, under the authority of the “Islamic Emirate” ruled by the “commander of the faithful” Mullah Omar, the head of the Taliban. He then proceeded to heap praise repeatedly on the “commander of the faithful.” Why would Zawahiri spend so much time hailing Mullah Omar as the commander of the faithful when introducing a new al-Qaeda franchise, something he has never done before? It must be al-Qaeda’s competition with the Islamic State, which declared the reestablishment of the caliphate in June. Since that time, al-Qaeda has been promoting Mullah Omar as the counter-caliph.

As Cole Bunzel documented, al-Qaeda’s media wing released an old video of Bin Laden in July 2014 explaining his decision to give his oath of allegiance to Mullah Omar as commander of the faithful, a historical title of the caliphs. A questioner asks Bin Laden if his oath implies that he considers Mullah Omar to posses the “supreme imamate,” the prerogative of the caliphs, which Bin Laden affirms. Later that same month, al-Qaeda released a newsletter that begins with a renewal of the oath of allegiance to “Commander of the Faithful Mullah Muhammad Omar” and “affirms that al-Qaeda and its branches in all locales are soldiers in his army, acting under his victorious banner.”

Plainly, Zawahiri now holds up Mullah Omar as the counter-caliph to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to blunt the Islamic State’s chief recruiting pitch and criticism of al-Qaeda: it has brought back the caliphate and al-Qaeda hasn’t. But why the ambiguity?

Why not go all the way and declare Mullah Omar the caliph? I can think of two reasons: First, Mullah Omar may not want the job- for now, but . Claiming to rule Afghanistan is much more modest than claiming to rule the entire Muslim world, which would alienate potential allies like some of the Gulf states. Second, many jihadis have criticized Baghdadi and the Islamic State for declaring the caliphate too soon. Al-Qaeda would be

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subject to the same criticism if it aped the State (and Zawahiri would not even control the caliphate he declared). Better to walk the ambiguous middle way for the time being between forthrightly declaring a counter-caliph and having no caliph at all.It is believed that Afri, when senior al-Qaeda operatives Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and Abu Ayyub al-Masri were killed in 2010, was Osama bin Laden’s preferred choice to become emir of al-Qaeda in Iraq, the group which eventually morphed into ISIS.

To the aforementioned just another angle to it, thinking outside general perception box… Cees

Although we are told to believed that AQ and IS are at loggerheads the establishing of the Islamic State by Baghdadi fulfils Zawahiri’s dream of establishing it. Additional the Press stating the self declaring by al Nusra,  could well be pre-planned as an alternative; to the Baghdadi Islamic State, it could be an Emirate, if so that has the approval of AQSL . It let us to believe that AQSL is now totally falling apart, one the other hand if we believe, than the only force left to fight will be IS, and Zawahiri would love that. Moreover he can plan unnoticed. He does not like Bagdhadi but the Caliph is there – a milestone - and likely to stay. A think out the box options and food for thought;

1- With the Caliph established the forward pulling role of the (AQ) Vanguard - in the Islamic State consolidation phase- AQSL 2020 plan Phase 5- is not needed, if you only look at the region’s established. The expanding of the Daesh region even by the force or a hidden role and – so far – unknown to us a new or according to pre-planned - (AQ) Vanguard mission, someone need too do the missionary work and prep the next battle field, Large parts of Europe and Southern - Eastern Russia.  Who has the best cards – global network in place - to do so.

2- The “planned Own state” by al Nusra could have a deeper reason than written in the text, Zawahiri a master in Deception - could furthers and play the plan on preparing the (AQ-) Counter Islamic State, as the Baghdadi State could see defeat in one way ore the other soon.

3- Zawahiri could let Daesh run their course – and defeat will come - as long as it take and while Daesh will become more and more under pressure AQ could use it’s old tactics of getting as much as left over from Daesh back into its orbit. In the press some suggests merging, I say take over, but not as it seems Daesh – AQ but do not be surprised as in the near future AQSL is back in the game.

4- Zawahiri as no other understand the “force” and ideology connected with a Caliph, due to the current events and not being in the Western focus they have all the time to plane and wait for the things to come.

5-With Afri leaning to AQ and having historical preference with their leadership, Zawahiri could get what he wants; a Daesh leadership listening to AQSL

 The story of Al-Nusrah Front splitting from Al-Qa'ida was likely a rumor as long as it is not made official, and as long as the name of Al-Qa'ida remains on the flags of Al-Nusrah Front in Syria. It could all be pre-planned, as planning and following timelines has proven to be an AQSL masterpiece.

In general we should not underestimate the forward thinking and planning of the AQSL and its strategists. Deception and planning for the next step has proven to be in the soul of AQSL. It is not unthinkable that they have sought and found an eager personality: Baghdadi, to pull the “Caliphate” car in an effort to see how the Islamic”- and the rest of the World would react. More over Afri could give them the window they are looking for. AQ has most likely foreseen the reactions of the regional and western states to the “self “declared

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Islamic State. They have also likely calculated the upcoming defeat of the Baghdadi caliphate, and if this is to happen they will have positioned themselves – or their candidate - to take over and pull forward with the remnants of it. With the current global focus on IS, AQSL can work under the radar with its planners and analysts and see where to adjust their long-term plan: 2020 plan. The world was surprised and astonished to see the map presented by the Daesh for their expansion and timeline to it: by 2020. What is surprising, the World should have known as it was released by AQSL, to become known to us in 2005. The role of AQ as the Vanguard has changed by establishing the Islamic State, and although we are to believe that AQ is decimated and overtaken by Baghdadi’s State, the momentum and lack of focus on them gives AQSL perfect room the plan and maneuver. Ready too act when needed, the window of opportunity is here and now.

Some time ago I wrote: C: ISIS has declared itself a “Caliphate,” which refers to an Islamic form of government led by an authoritative power considered a successor to the Muslim prophet Muhammad. Braniff says Daesh sees the growth of its Caliphate as “the means to the end of a final, decisive military confrontation with the West.” Zarate, author of “Treasury’s War: The Unleashing of a New Era of Financial Warfare,” says ISIS is “piggy-backing” off the work of al-Qaeda and beginning to advance the global agenda of Sharia rule.C: So far Five out of Seven Phases of Al Qaeda’s grand plan came to fruition, and should give us reason for concern 2. The question to ask here is the latest – Paris - a revenge attack for Blasphemy of the Prophet, although mentioned or an initial indicator of transit into their – al Qaeda - next phase of their Seven stage plan, or is the latest event in France an ordinary – but deadly battle for global jihad control, fought out on the soil of the House of War, Disbelieve – dar al-Harb? Daesh, the so-called Islamic State has according to Debkafile an expanding focus of the Near3 and their unbeliever” Muslims and apostate governments; it seems that the Egypt President is on the list to topple next. A threat also voiced by Muslim Brotherhood cleric Salama Abd Al-Qawi who said on Rabea TV; Anyone who kills Egyptian President Abd Al-Fattah Al-Sisi and the journalists who support him would be doing a good dead. Meanwhile, cleric Wagdi Ghoneim told Misr Alan TV that “whoever can bring us the head of one of these dogs and Hell-dwellers,” referring to Sisi and his supporters, would be rewarded by Allah. Interestingly it was Al Zawahiri: who said in the past; "the road to

2 Awakening” Sept 11 Provoke U.S. attack on Muslims, galvanize Jihadism “Opening the Eyes” 2002–2006 Force West on defensive. “Arising and Standing Up” 2007–2010 Assaults on Turkey and Israel. “Downfall of Apostate Muslim regimes” 2010–2013 Saudi Arabia, Jordan, oil -producing countries and 5; “Declaration of Caliphate” 2013–2016 Mobilization of Muslim forces..

3 Waking Up to the New al-Qaeda, Ahmed Rashid The Yemen branch of al-Qaeda should be a particular concern to the West. AQAP is almost as old as the original al-Qaeda organization formed in Afghanistan and Pakistan by Osama bin Laden in the early 1980s. Moreover, in its fundamental aims, AQAP poses a more direct threat to Western targets than ISIS. From its initial rise to power in Iraq and Syria, ISIS has given top priority to the “near enemy,” what it views as the corrupt secular Arab regimes of the Middle East. AQAP has maintained the original al-Qaeda aim of attacking the “far enemy”—Western countries and Western capitalism—in order to bring about the collapse of Arab regimes. In other words, the Paris attacks could dramatically change the way Western governments operate, which is exactly what the old al-Qaeda tried to do when it attacked the twin towers in New York. AQAP will continue to make this its strategic aim—to bring Western capitalism to its knees. ISIS represents an extraordinary threat of its own, but the Paris attacks have demonstrated that the greatest danger to the West is still al-Qaeda. http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2015/jan/12/paris-attacks-waking-al-qaeda/

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Jerusalem passes through Cairo. 4" -- Moreover on 30 Jan 2015 5, The Muslim Brotherhood called for “a long, uncompromising jihad 6” in Egypt just days after a delegation of the Islamist group’s key leaders and allies met with the State Department, according to an official statement released. “It is incumbent upon everyone to be aware that we are in the process of a new phase, where we summon what is latent in our strength, where we recall the meanings of jihad and prepare ourselves, our wives, our sons, our daughters, and whoever marched on our path to a long, uncompromising jihad, and during this stage we ask for martyrdom,” it states.

Also Israel is mentioned – By Daesh, and see footnote for Zawahiri thoughts - to be attacked be it from the north or the south or both. On the other hand both AQIM and AQAP and the late Sep established AQIS are signalling in their latest statements a move from the Near to the Far. It is unknown, though likely that AQSL has sanctioned the start into the next strategic Phase: the confrontation in the Far: dar al-Harb, the house of unbeliever. If as mentioned 5 out of 7 stages are in process or came to some form of completion the latest is not unlikely.

As western intelligence officials have warned for some time now, it is highly likely that the fight will come to Europe, sleeper cells – likely over years trained and positioned - are activated, trained and indoctrinated fighters are returning, with the blasphemy of the prophet opposition in the western and global Muslim communities and their leading clerics growing the conditions are increasing in favour of our enemies: be it Daesh or AQ, the later still has the better cards to do so. If AQ decides to launch their next phase into the west, foreseen culminate 2016-2018, it is likely they could absorb the “Near” Daesh activity into their orbit and become a powerfully and dangerous enemy with growing capabilities and motivated, trained, battle hardened fighters. The killing – by a member state of the US led coalition against them -of Daesh caliph Ibrahim, so far targeted more than once, could be AQ blessing and the turning point in favour of the AQSL. They have the long-term plan and vision and don’t like the current Daesh and its leader. As most of us didn’t notice or ignored Zawahiri who’s main focus is the Far around 2006 shifted – temporarily – the strategic focus from the Far to the Near in a likely move to facilitate phase 3,and 4 to set conditions for Five.

4 Al-Zawahiri expressed his early thought in an article in al-Mujahidun in April 1995. Like bin Laden, Zawahiri, now leader of al Qaida, has long placed targeting Israel farther down the operational totem pole than more immediate targets. In the 1990s, Zawahiri maintained, "the road to Jerusalem passes through Cairo." In other words, Palestine could be liberated only after illegitimate and insufficiently Islamic regimes in places such as Egypt were dealt with. Years later, in a letter to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq, Zawahiri would explain that targeting Israel was a "fourth stage" goal following (or coming at the same time as) the expulsion of Americans from Iraq, the establishment of an Islamic emirate there, and extending the jihad to secular countries neighboring Iraq. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/zawahiri-aims-at-israel-behind-al-Qaidas-pivot-to-the-levant 5 http://freebeacon.com/national-security/open-jihad-declared-in-egypt-following-state-dept-meeting-with-muslim-brotherhood-aligned-leaders/6 8 Feb 2015, Muslim Brotherhood-linked television stations based in Turkey have been calling on supporters to use violent means in Egypt in an attempt to overthrow President Sisi and his army-backed government and return the country to Muslim Brotherhood The official Muslim Brotherhood representative in Turkey, Ashraf Abdulgaffar, made a similar call, advocating a policy of "an eye for an eye." He said: "We are now in the retaliation phase. They [Sisi’s government] must taste pain, because there are traitors. My message to the Egyptian people is this: Stand firm and be ready for all sacrifices and prices to be paid.” Other statements went much further. A “communique” issued by an organization claiming to be the “Revolutionary Youth,” and broadcast on Muslim Brotherhood Rabia TV, threatened to launch terrorist attacks on foreign nationals in Egypt. The televised statement gave all foreign nationals until February 11 to leave Egypt, saying "after that they may become targeted by the movements of revolutionary retribution."

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By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

The key question here could be: do we see the prelude of an AQSL strategic shift into the next strategic phase?

Prophecy And Jihad In Indian Subcontinent – AnalysisMarch 27, 2015 By Hudson Institute By Husain Haqqani; Ambassador Husain Haqqani served as Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States from 2008-2011 Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) are competing with each other for recruitment on the South Asian subcontinent; One Hadith instructs true believers to join the nation from the east with black flags “even if you have to crawl over ice.” Although the idea of Ghazwa-e-Hind as a war against the contemporary Indian state has not been universally accepted, it continues to feature in the jihadist discourse..

Radical Islamists invoke the Hadith (the oral traditions attributed to the Prophet Muhammad) to prophesize a great battle in India between true believers and unbelievers before the end-times.

During the war against the Soviets and the ensuing Taliban rule, ancient prophecies of Khurasan – which includes modern Afghanistan – resurfaced to inspire jihadists and promise great heavenly rewards.

This was not the first time that the Khurasan Hadith had been cited to mobilize Muslim soldiers. Sayings attributed to the Prophet Muhammad were often transmitted orally; formal written compilations did not emerge until more than a century after his death in 632 AD

One Hadith instructs true believers to join the nation from the east with black flags “even if you have to crawl over ice.”1 Another says, “Armies carrying black flags will come from Khurasan, no power will be able to stop them and they will finally reach Eela (the al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem) where they will erect their flags.”2 This prediction of final victory was a convenient recruitment tool for al-Qaeda when it was firmly established in Khurasan during the Taliban era. Prophecies attributed to the Prophet Muhammad were also an important part of

jihadist propaganda during the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. Radical Islamists cited the Hadith about a war on the banks of the Euphrates over a mountain of gold that would portend the rise of Dajjal (representing evil) and the emergence of the Mahdi.

The prospect of joining the final battle against evil before the end of the world served as an incentive for many believers to take up jihad. It was not difficult for clerics to suggest that the reference to the “mountain of gold” was a metaphor for Iraq’s oil reserves.

According to Fazlullah, “the India jihad begins from Attock [in Pakistan]; the India jihad is in the land of Pakistan; the area of Lahore is in the India jihad; Multan is in India; all the towns of Punjab are in the India jihad that we are waging. Therefore, the Ulema should rise up and explain the borders of the India jihad, explain these sayings of Prophet Muhammad, explain to the public the boundaries of India, which areas were in India 50 years ago, what were their boundaries…”

In September 2014, Zawahiri announced the formation of al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), which his ally Maulana Asim Umar reinforced with a call for global jihad by Indian Muslims. An AQIS spokesman explained on September 8, 2014 that AQIS seeks to raise the “flag of jihad” in the whole region, and that while they seek to “liberate” Indian Muslims from Hindus, Pakistan is its “doorstep” for jihad.

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By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Thinking outside the Box: First and foremost contrary to public knowledge Al Qaeda is far from defeat, it may be disrupted I here you say, maybe a bit, also it is been dismantled since the rising of Daesh; - others call ISIS or ISIL - and the self declared caliph Ibrahim, far from it. It’s What many of us are likely not willing to see, as we are told otherwise is that the current events in the Middle East and Africa, yes and to some extend in Central-South Asia and closer to home are still permissive for Al Qaeda’s long term plan.

Let me explain. A decade ago AQSL long-term Seven stage plan – the so-called 2020 plan became known to the public, however ignored and ridiculed by many, as much of other strategic publications, statements and books. In a twist the plan foresaw the Arabic uprising, downfall of apostate western supported rulers” the establishing of a Caliph and an expending of the Jihad to follow, as far as dar –al-Harb: the house of unbeliever: the Western Nations, and they predict an end-state by or around 2020.. Today we see a lot of afore taking place is it not all– currently - under the AQSL flag, its Daesh today many of us say. Whatever Daesh is and threatening of doing it is however a copy of the AQSL plan. Besides that being for most a fact; AQ and its main affiliates are still globally strategically perfect positioned to be able to observe and analyse current events, plan accordingly – for the likely downfall of Daesh, killing Baghdadi or an AQ allay as replacement and the what next - coordinate and have presence, representation in critical areas of the theatres around the globe.

And we even could argue if Daesh is in the AQSL plan part of consolidating the phase: establish the caliphate. The many formed coalitions intended – as they say - to call a halt to expending Daesh in a way supports AQSL intent. Moreover in the likely event that Daesh will come to a halt and be dissolved in one way or the other AQSL could and will fill the void. And continue with their plan and use the changed status quo and many fighters left on the battlefields – and those returning home -to their advantages.

AQSL and Daesh pursue both the same strategic objective by violent means: Global Muslim-Sunni Islam hegemony. The strategy to get there differ, AQSL see the first objective to stop the “Far” western influence and presence as step one followed by the “Near” the apostate rulers and the Shia Muslim and non-Muslim populations in Muslim land before moving into the dar al-Harb. For Daesh it is the other way around; local apostate and other Muslims, Christians, and other religions first. Contributing the – sectarian - fire are the two World lead Islamic nations; Iran-Shia and Saudi Arabia-Sunni were and are both involved in more than one way or the other, and although denied it will contribute to sectarian violence and in the long run their today’s actions – as they did in the past - fulfils some of AQSL requirements’; as there is to undermine, destabilise and overthrow Arab rulers, oppose premature and fragile democracy and gain a standing Islam army; parts of it trained by the west as moderates. Not at least to say it will contribute to sectarian divide and worse they could hand up in at each others throat; may well be explained as fulfilment of part of AQSL “Near phase…

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With hotspots sparkling up all over the place, a focus on Daesh and growing Shia Iran- and other Arab Sunni countries tension – and Yemen coalitions - on the rise, it seems that AQSL is off the focus. This in itself is a dangerous development. Be it through to the fact that in many places we have no boots and solid intelligence structure on the ground – anymore, withdrawal etc - in the regions, or to the fact that Daesh is simply in the focus. This lack of tools and focus gives AQSL and it’s affiliates much room to manoeuvre: largely un-noticed. As we in the West have a hard time grasping the undercurrent of today’s events, let alone the impact of the phenomena of the “Caliph” on the region and western foreign fighters, we still have no agreed strategy to address. To the later we still have no grasp on the radicalisation at the home front where – contrary to what we are told; poor social environment, jobless etc -, apparently the talks on the “kitchen table” and family and friends are main contributors to it. Moreover they and the returnees could become the “fifth columns for the next phase of the plan, and AQSL knows, but others to.. Early April the UN reported: More than 25,000 some say much more - foreign fighters from 100 nations have travelled to join militant groups such as al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS), a UN report says. And although we see, ear and talk the atrocities, beheadings, burning, raping and selective targeting not only Sunnis Muslim v.s. Shia Muslim but also Christians we still seems to look away for action.

The problem is not Daesh alone it’s much more complex, diverse and we need to understand fast as they start knocking on our western doors – or strategic economical gateways - and have seen already what that could mean. Moreover they have told us so.

As mentioned the problem is not alone AQ and Daesh – but it seems that due to them using violence they are on the radar, as there are others who claim to pursue by so far non-violent the caliphate. Two of the main are the Muslim Brotherhood and Hizb ut-Tahrir. The MB - founded in Egypt in 1928 by the Islamic scholar and schoolteacher Hassan al-Banna, and officially renounced political violence in 1949; so far, - however in the discovered plan: The 1982 document the Project centred around a secret 100-year plan to subjugate the world under Islam and were supposed to be kept hidden from people outside the organization, equals Usama bin Ladens saying that it would take one hundred years to restore the Caliphate; the Ottoman Empire was dissolved in 1922.

HuT, objective means bringing the Muslims back to living an Islamic way of life in Dar al-Islam and in an Islamic society such that all of life's affairs in society are administered according to the Shari'ah rules, and the viewpoint in it is the halal and the haram under the shade of the Islamic State, which is the Khilafah State. Hizb ut-Tahrir states its aim as unification of all Muslim nations over time in a unitary Islamic state or caliphate, headed by an elected caliph.

Western Pol/Mi leaders have stated that the AQ and Daesh problem; although still not defined and agreed, will not go away and could take decades to address, surprisingly not much action is put to the words so far. Moreover they have in no way addressed the “silent” pursue of the caliphate by the MB and HuT. So far AQ and Daesh are currently mainly operating far from home; we think. The MB and HuT do have a large representation and membership in our home countries and in some cases they are consulted – as peaceful advisers on Muslim affairs - up to the highest diplomatic level in our nations. Seeking help could have resulted in opening the door for: Taqiyya and manipulation.

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Disturbingly when realisation of the problems at hand sinks in we likely call in our forces to clean up the mess political leadership have made. However over the last years we have seen that the regular armies of the countries involved, be it trained by western advisers for years are still not up to the task to halt Daesh and it likings. Many of these mostly Middle Eastern have and still do -build their armies to fight the conventional way of war, they forgot or did not reacted to the events in irregular warfare taking place for the last decades. Closer to home many years of financial reductions have nearly decimated our own forces capabilities, with the clear and present threat in front of us still no urgency other than it will be addressed in ten years to come is noted. Sadly we still don’t get it that when we or regional alliances act against one group, countries leaders ’Saddam, Gaddafi 7 etc, or the other’s it is AQ that in 3rd order effect is able to exploit the situation and void, as there is south east Yemen and other hot bed theatres. Moreover our actions could serve someone’s “silent” purpose and agenda.

Sadly even today we still have not understood, addressed, defined, and agreed what the threat exactly is,- to some extend we see and notice those who are acting violently – even at home -, but still the “silent” groups we don’t, - who we fight and how to address in a comprehensive way. Our previous and current actions have led to strange things – even unlawfully, as there is today an Arab Coalition invading in a sovereign country like Yemen without any formal UNSCR mandate. Additionally reluctance to have western boots on the ground has led us to deal with so-

called replacement armies, “moderates” or other” militias the past and even presence has shown that’s not the smartest thing to do, we do it anyway.

Finally we underestimate our enemy, and to be crystal clear not every Muslim be it Sunni or Shia is a friend from IS (Daesh) or Al Qaeda salafist jihads ideology. But they could well be part of the so-called “silent group”; as many Muslims and western liked leaders stay silent after main attacks or atrocities committed. Just think this for a moment, the beheading of the Christina Egyptian Copts on the beach in northern Libya was bad, however the reactions form the Muslim Ummah was relatively silent; what if the executioners would have been Christian?

We may reach the point where we have to admit not to have the political will, – or being able – to formulate an answer and have tools and means to address the growing phenomena; with Daesh a declared and others on pursue of the caliphate. We failed to identify and take measures accordingly and the consequences will be devastating: if we think

7 On March 6, 2011, several weeks before NATO began seven months of bombing, Gaddafi gave a prophetic interview with French newspaper Le Monde du Dimanche, in which he stated: “I want to make myself understood: if one threatens Libya, if one seeks to destabilize Libya, there will be chaos, Bin Laden, armed factions. That is what will happen. You will have immigration, thousands of people will invade Europe from Libya. And there will no longer be anyone to stop them. Bin Laden will base himself in North Africa and will leave Mullah Omar in Afghanistan and Pakistan. You will have Bin Laden at your door step.”

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9/11, London, Madrid, Boston, Paris, Westgate, Mumbai, the Kenya and other school attacks, etc are bad just wait for Salafist ideology or what form of Sharia rule.

Both AQSL and Daesh made no secret that it is their pursued end-state. But also others do.. The MB - founded in Egypt in 1928 in the discovered plan: The 1982 document the Project centred on a secret 100-year plan; simple math tells me that we have 13 years left.

All with the exception of Hut have a near similar time-line to establish the global end state it all comes together somewhere around the early 2020, They all do pursue the caliphate; we knew, but failed to address..

The Convergences of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State By: Mary Habeck Friday, 17 April 2015 in Jihad In an earlier blog post, I speculated that it was possible the U.S. intervention in Iraq and Syria might cause AQ and IS to externalize their competition. That is, rather than fighting each other, they might be able to agree to fight the U.S. and its allies and therefore cooperate on killing us, rather than killing each other. The examples raised here suggest that this might, in fact, be occurring.

For several months, I have been writing about signs of cooperation—generally on a local level—between al-Qaeda (AQ) groups and others that have sworn fealty to the Islamic State (IS). It might seem counterintuitive that the two, which have accused each other of assassinating leaders, engaged in a very public mutual disowning, and fought each other openly in some areas, would work together at all. But there is growing evidence of localized convergences between the two organizations, especially in Lebanon, Syria, and Tunisia. Whether this will turn into something more comprehensive is unclear. Cooperation between IS and al-Nusra Front (AQ’s branch in Syria) was first reported in fighting in Lebanon during the late summer and early fall 2014. Observers commented on the unusual nature of this collaboration, given the well-known hostility between the two groups, but were uncertain whether it was just a temporary alliance or a real change of heart by the organizations.  In early November 2014, multiple sources stated that a high-level meeting between al-Nusra Front and IS occurred.  There were also many reports of the two groups working together to attack the moderate Syrian resistance forces (although other reports denied these claims). After clashes between the two groups in Lebanon, another agreement was reportedly signed between local IS and Nusra Front commanders, dividing disputed territory into two areas of influence.

The most significant cooperation has been over the fight around Damascus. In Qalamoun, north of the capital, there have been numerous reports of an on-again off-again relationship between the two groups over the past seven months. The latest reporting suggests that the two have decided once again to a truce and to collaborate when fighting the “aggressor enemy,” i.e. Hezbollah or the Syrian government. What is interesting is that this is occurring despite the efforts of delegates sent by IS to consolidate the group’s power in the region. The head of the AQ local group refused to join IS, and was disavowed as “a sect of infidels and apostates” by one of the IS representatives. This should have precluded any compromise or cooperation between the groups and yet it has continued. IS fighters in Yarmouk Camp in Damascus.There is another apparent area of cooperation even closer to Damascus. After initial reports that the Yarmouk Palestinian refugee camp had been attacked and seized by IS, later reports claimed that it had been taken through a joint assault by the Nusra Front and IS. When a Nusra Front commander involved in the offensive was accused of joining IS, he denied this rumor and renewed his oath of fealty to the head of the group, Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani (naming him, significantly, “Amir of al-Qa’ida in the Land of Sham”). As he

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explained, the Nusra Front saw its duty as not getting involved in any infighting and instead working to “aid” the oppressed civilians.

Perhaps even more telling is recent insight into cooperation between AQ and IS in Tunisia. Next week I’ll do a more thorough analysis of the Bardo Museum attack and what this tells us about the two groups’ relationship, but suffice to say here that there is growing evidence the attack seems to have been, like the Charlie Hebdo assault, a joint operation between IS and AQ groups. Terrible as this terrorist attack was, however, it might be just one example of something much more sinister: an area of the greater Middle East where AQ and IS are converging rather than competing. Ifriqiyya MediaIfriqiyya Media, which swore fealty to IS in November, yet continues to publish al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) material, put out a statement recently in which it explained the relationship between the various Tunisian jihadist groups. In their words, ‘Uqba bin Nafi’ Brigades is part of AQIM; Jund al-Khilafah and Vanguards of Jund al-Khilafah are sworn to IS; and Tawhid wa-l-Jihad is completely independent. Despite this difference in affiliation, the groups have no disputes or issues between them and “cooperate on some actions.” It is also significant that “Vanguards of Jund al-Khilafah” is described by Ifriqiyya Media as the group specifically set up by IS to create an Islamic State “province” in Tunisia.

Analytically, it is clear that the cooperation between IS and AQ has three characteristics: first, it is a local phenomenon that does not necessarily signal a change of relationship between the organizations as a whole.

Analytically, it is clear that the cooperation between IS and AQ has three characteristics: first, it is a local phenomenon that does not necessarily signal a change of relationship between the organizations as a whole. This is good news, although it is important to stipulate that the current state of the cooperation does not preclude a widening of the collaboration until it includes a substantial portion of—or even the entirety of—the AQ and IS networks. If this were to occur, it is difficult to understand how this end state would differ in substance from a formally worked out truce and agreement to cooperate between the leaderships of the two groups. It is also clear that even the current local cooperation does not reflect the wishes of the head of IS. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announced in November 2014 the “nullification” of all local jihadist groups in the lands where men had sworn fealty to him, the creation of provinces in these lands to replace the old groups, and the appointment of new commanders (walis) to lead them. He also urged all jihadis to join the groups that had sworn fealty to him. The discussion above demonstrates that during this same time frame, representatives were empowered—at least in Syria and Tunisia and perhaps elsewhere—to implement this order. Yet, local IS groups chose to continue their cooperation with local AQ groups. On the other hand, Zawahiri and the leadership of AQ branches (e.g., AQAP and AQIM) have apparently made no such demands and have shown no qualms about working closely with groups that have sworn fealty to IS.

Finally, the cooperation has been directed at areas where the two groups can agree, for instance, against common enemies (like the Syrian government). Unfortunately, the area where they most agree is in attacking external enemies (like France, foreign tourists, and the U.S.). This brings me to the third point. In an earlier blog post, I speculated that it was possible the U.S. intervention in Iraq and Syria might cause AQ and IS to externalize their competition. That is, rather than fighting each other, they might be able to agree to fight the U.S. and its allies and therefore cooperate on killing us, rather than killing each other. The examples raised here suggest that this might, in fact, be occurring.

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