16
CdW Intelligence to Rent -2016- In Confidence [email protected] Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19- 138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaida-45-Our Performance-13 "In jungle war, and even more so in a revolutionary war where ideology plays a key role, the air element is unlikely to be able to play a decisive part. In fact, the air element should make it a point to underline its own limitations to the ground commanders, lest they and their troops develop a false sense of over-reliance on air cover, re-supply, and reconnaissance. Many observers have pointed out that in some cases in South Viet-nam, this already has happened." - George Bernard Shaw Ignoring wars does not make them go away. C Brzezinski: What is most important to the history of the world? The Taliban or the collapse of the Soviet empire? Some stirred-up Moslems or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the cold war? Never leave a partially defeated enemy in one way or the other back on the battlefields. On Jan. 29, the National Commission on the Future of the U.S. Army released its report on a wide range of issues confronting the Army. Its more than 60 recommendations addressed details as specific as the proper ratio of attack-helicopter battalions between the active Army and the Reserves. Yet for all its good work, the commission neglected to tackle the Army’s biggest problem: its declining ability to wage the kind of protracted irregular wars that America’s enemies increasingly prefer to fight. “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win” ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War Feb 12, Pakistan announced it has dismantled al-Qaida's main network in South Asia and foiled plans to break out of jail a man involved in the murder of journalist Daniel Pearl. Lt. Gen. Asim Bajwa, the spokesman for Pakistan’s military, said they have arrested 97 militants, including Farooq Bhatti —also known as Musanna — the deputy chief of al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), 12 of the group’s financiers and 15 explosives experts. The head of this al-Qaida chapter is in Afghanistan, according to Bajwa. The Syrian Cauldron Boils Over by Jonathan SpyerThe Jerusalem PostFebruary 19, 2016 Originally published “Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster” ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 1 of 16 31/07/2022

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaida-45-Our Performance-13

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaida-45-Our Performance-13

CdW Intelligence to Rent -2016- In Confidence [email protected]

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaida-45-Our Performance-13

"In jungle war, and even more so in a revolutionary war where ideology plays a key role, the air element is unlikely to be able to play a decisive part. In fact, the air element should make it a point to underline its own limitations to the ground commanders, lest they and their troops develop a false sense of over-reliance on air cover, re-supply, and reconnaissance. Many observers have pointed out that in some cases in South Viet-nam, this already has happened." - George Bernard ShawIgnoring wars does not make them go away.

C Brzezinski: What is most important to the history of the world? The Taliban or the collapse of the Soviet empire? Some stirred-up Moslems or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the cold war?

Never leave a partially defeated enemy in one way or the other back on the battlefields.

On Jan. 29, the National Commission on the Future of the U.S. Army released its report on a wide range of issues confronting the Army. Its more than 60 recommendations addressed details as specific as the proper ratio of attack-helicopter battalions between the active Army and the Reserves. Yet for all its good work, the commission neglected to tackle the Army’s biggest problem: its declining ability to wage the kind of protracted irregular wars that America’s enemies increasingly prefer to fight.

“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win” ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Feb 12, Pakistan announced it has dismantled al-Qaida's main network in South Asia and foiled plans to break out of jail a man involved in the murder of journalist Daniel Pearl.

Lt. Gen. Asim Bajwa, the spokesman for Pakistan’s military, said they have arrested 97 militants, including Farooq Bhatti —also known as Musanna — the deputy chief of al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), 12 of the group’s financiers and 15 explosives experts. The head of this al-Qaida chapter is in Afghanistan, according to Bajwa.

The Syrian Cauldron Boils Overby Jonathan SpyerThe Jerusalem PostFebruary 19, 2016 Originally published under the title "The Syrian

Cauldron."

Over the ruined landscape of northern Syria, a number of core factors that today define the strategic reality of the Middle East are colliding. Close observation of that blighted area therefore offers clues as to the current state of play more broadly in the region – who is on the way up, who on the way down, and what might this imply for Israel in the short to medium term.Let's identify the factors interacting discernibly in the north Syrian maelstrom:

Firstly and most importantly, the Russian intervention which began on September 30, 2015 and which is now rolling across northwestern Syria announces the arrival of a growing de facto alliance between Moscow and the Islamic Republic of Iran. This alliance currently works to the benefit of both parties, in spite of the clear difference of interests and sometime tension between them.

In Syria, the abilities and needs of the Russian and Iranians are complementary. Russia brings an air capacity to the Syrian battlefield against which the Sunni Arab rebels

“Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster”― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 1 of 10 01/05/2023

Page 2: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaida-45-Our Performance-13

CdW Intelligence to Rent -2016- In Confidence [email protected]

are effectively helpless. The tightening grip around Aleppo and the crossing of the Azaz corridor are the main results of this so far. But airpower is of

limited use without a committed ground partner. The Russians for domestic reasons have no desire to become bogged down in a large-scale commitment of Russian ground troops.Russia's air power and Iran's ability to mobilize sectarian paramilitaries complement each other perfectly.The Iranians lack anything close to the Russian ability in the air. But what they possess, via the skills of the Qods Force of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, is a currently matchless ability to create and mobilize sectarian paramilitary proxies, and then to move them to where needed across the regional chessboard. Hence, the ground partner for Russian air power in northern Syria is today not only or mainly the Syrian Arab Army of Bashar Assad. Rather, Lebanese Hizballah, the Iraqi Shia Badr Brigade, the Afghan Shia Fatemiyun and IRGC personnel themselves are all playing a vital role.It is not at all clear that this alliance will be able or even willing to complete the

reconquest of the entirety of Syria – which remains the goal of the regime as stated by Bashar Assad last week. However, it will certainly be able to preserve the Assad regime from destruction, and may yet deliver a deathblow to the non-IS rebels in the northwest, center and south west of the country.

The potency of this emergent Russian-Iranian alliance is made possible only by the willed absence of the United States from the arena. Russia felt confident enough to launch its attempt to destroy the rebellion because it calculated that the prospect of the United States extending its own air cover westwards to protect the rebels (whose goal it ostensibly supports) was sufficiently close to zero. The Obama administration appears strategically committed to staying out. The US and its allies are making slow progress against the Islamic State. But west of the Euphrates, the United States is an irrelevance.Russian-Iranian gains are made possible by the willed absence of the United States from the Syrian arena.

This brings us to the third salient factor apparent in the situation in northern Syria: “Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster”

― Sun Tzu, The Art of WarCdW Intelligence to Rent Page 2 of 10 01/05/2023

Page 3: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaida-45-Our Performance-13

CdW Intelligence to Rent -2016- In Confidence [email protected]

namely, the relative impotence of the Sunni powers when faced with the superior force of Russia.

The Russian advance eastwards in Aleppo province and the disinclination of the United States to prevent it presents the Sunni state backers of the rebellion in Syria with two equally unpalatable alternatives.

These are: to acquiesce in the face of superior force and thus face the prospect of the final eclipse of the Sunni Arab rebellion in Syria, or to seek to confront the Russian/Iranian/regime side head on, and thus face the prospect of head on collision with a major world power, without any guarantee of western support.These are the stark alternatives. It isn't possible of course to predict with certainty which one the Saudis and Turks will choose. But the likelihood is that they will opt for the former, while engaging in face saving exercises to prevent this from being too obvious.Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Jbeir told a press conference in Riyadh this week that "The Kingdom's readiness to provide special forces to any ground operations in Syria is linked to a decision to have a ground component to this coalition against Daesh (Islamic State) in Syria – this U.S.-led coalition – so the timing is not up to us." The Turks, meanwhile, evidently canvassed their allies over the possibility of a joint ground incursion into northern Syria. But finding no enthusiasm, they appear currently content with shelling the positions of the Kurdish YPG south of the key border town of Azaz. Turkish officials speaking in Istanbul this week appeared to rule out a unilateral incursion.

The fourth regional factor apparent in northern Syria is the contraction of the state and collapse and fragmentation of the 'nation' in Syria, and the salience of ethnic and sectarian organizations in the war over their ruins.The remaining rebel forces in northern Syria are entirely dominated by Sunni Islamist groups.The remaining 'rebel forces' in northern Syria today are entirely dominated by Sunni Islamist and jihadi groups. The collapse of the state, and the apparent inability of Arab politics at the popular level to generate anything other than forces aligned with political Islam is a profoundly important component of the current reality both of Syria and of the wider region.This fragmentation is also giving birth to more potent forces. In this regard, the Syrian Kurdish performance both militarily and politically is worthy of note. Militarily, the YPG remains one of the most powerful forces engaged. Politically, the Kurds appear currently to be performing a balancing act whereby east of the Euphrates they partner with US air power against the Islamic State, while west of the river, they seek to unite the Afrin and Kobani cantons in partnership with Russian air power against the Turkish backed rebels – with the acquiescence of both powers.So put all this together and you have a fair approximation of the current state of the Middle East, as reflected in miniature in the cauldron that is northern Syria: emergent Iranian-Russian strategic alliance, US non-involvement, hapless US-aligned Sunni powers flailing as a result of this absence, state fragmentation, the emergence of powerful 'successor' entities, the domination of Arab politics at a popular level by Sunni political Islam and the emergence of the Kurds as a militarily able and politically savvy local power.As for Israel – it is mainly watching and waiting. But the fact that the historic maelstrom sweeping the region has not yet managed to make a major impact on the daily lives of those – Jew and Arab – living west of the Jordan River offers a certain testimony to the cautious and prudent policies pursued by Jerusalem. In the Syrian, and the broader

“Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster”― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 3 of 10 01/05/2023

Page 4: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaida-45-Our Performance-13

CdW Intelligence to Rent -2016- In Confidence [email protected]

regional cauldron, you're either one of the cooks – or you're on the menu. As of now, Israel appears to be managing to stay in the former category.

Jonathan Spyer is director of the Rubin Center for Research in International Affairs and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.

India, Feb 12: Terror groups like ISIS and al-Qaida have no relation with any religion and merely define it as per their convenience, Union minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi said. Naqvi stressed that the role of society is more important than that of the government to meet challenges posed by terrorism. "We should understand that terrorism and terror outfits like ISIS and al-Qaida are enemies of humanity and prosperity of the world. Terrorist outfits have no relation with any religion and they have been defining religion according to their convenience. "Religious organisations and leaders can use their influence to make people, especially the youth, aware of evil designs of terrorist groups. We have to fight unitedly against these evil forces with a commitment to protect peace of the world and destroy their ill and nefarious designs," the MoS for parliamentary affairs and minority affairs said.

ISIS may have lost territory to coalition forces over the past few months, but no fewer than 43 terrorist groups around the world have pledged allegiance – or are offering support – to the extremist Muslim murderous organization.

In a speech early Feb, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned that as many as 34 militant groups from around the world now support the Daesh extremist organization. However, findings released by the IntelCenter puts the number of ISIS affiliates and supporters at 43.

"The recent expansion of the [Daesh] sphere of influence across west and north Africa, the Middle East and south and southeast Asia demonstrates the speed and

“Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster”― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 4 of 10 01/05/2023

Page 5: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaida-45-Our Performance-13

CdW Intelligence to Rent -2016- In Confidence [email protected]

scale at which the gravity of the threat has evolved in just 18 months," said Ban.

The world must adjust to the growth of Islamic State and the displacement of millions of people from the Middle East as the “new normal”, according to former White House counter-terror chief David Kilcullen. Warning that he believes there is a 100 per cent chance of another terror attack here, Dr Kilcullen predicted that this year would see continued heavy violence in Syria; a major Islamic State and Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan; a spike in violence in Libya; continued unrest in Yemen, Somalia, northern Nigeria and Kenya; and a significant expansion of Islamic State in Southeast Asia.

Syrian SAA Forces Confront New Alliance of “Opposition” Al Qaeda Militants in Aleppo. The Syrian forces are continuing military operations against militants in the city of Aleppo, mainly focused on the districts of Bani Zaid and Layramoun. Bani Zaid is situated next to Aleppo’s most densely populated neighborhoods which conducts additional obstacles for the Syrian Arab Army (SAA). This doesn’t allow the SAA to use the all its firepower.

Militants groups have reportedly formed a new coalition in order to oppose advances of the SAA. This alliance is reportedly headed by Ahrar al Sham leader, Hashim al-Sheikh and includes such groups as Ahrar al Sham, Fastaqem, Sultan Murad Division, Suqur Jabal and Muntasir Brigade. This organization will reportedly spend most of its time attempting to stop the SAA advances in the city of Aleppo.

Two high-profile strikes in West Africa since November by al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) could further strengthen the Islamist militant group, a U.S. commander for North and West Africa said. AQIM, a militant group that emerged from the Algerian civil war in the 1990s and is now mostly north Mali-based, is emerging from a period of near dormancy marked by factional infighting. U.S. officials say this year's event is marked by a growing threat of Islamic State (ISIS) in Libya, Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin and AQIM in the Sahel which, while deeply concerning, is also boosting African security cooperation.

Al Qaeda’s Dangerous African RevivalThere’s a dangerous new development in the jihadist insurgency in the Horn of Africa.

By ALEXANDER MELEAGROU-HITCHENSFeb. 17, 2016 When a bomb went off on board a Feb. 2 Daallo Airlines flight leaving Mogadishu, Somalia, for Djibouti City, attention swiftly turned to the most active jihadist group in the region, the al Qaeda-affiliated militia al-Shabaab. The failed attack—the plane landed safely and only the bomber was killed—marks a dangerous new development in the jihadist insurgency in the Horn of Africa.Prior to this attack, al-Shabaab had mainly been focused on military operations, fighting a traditional insurgency alongside a deadly asymmetric campaign. It has been on its back foot since 2011, when a coalition of Western-backed African Union militaries began making significant gains against it, although there are worrying recent signs of a revival. Last month, al-Shabaab still managed to inflict the worst loss of life in Kenyan military history when it massacred around 100 Kenyan army troops during an attack on a forward base in El-Adde, in north-central Somalia.The recent airplane bombing is an entirely new development for the group, however, and that makes it cause for concern. While the group has engaged in other forms of terrorism

“Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster”― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 5 of 10 01/05/2023

Page 6: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaida-45-Our Performance-13

CdW Intelligence to Rent -2016- In Confidence [email protected]

in the past, this bombing of a civilian aircraft is a tactic that al-Shabaab had previously eschewed.

The reasons for the change remain unclear, but the target itself may be easy to explain. The bomber was initially booked on a Turkish Airlines flight, and only became a passenger on Daallo when his original flight was canceled.Turkey has developed close business and counterterrorism ties with the Somali government. Al-Shabaab, which frames itself as the protector of Somalia and its Muslims from Western and other outside influences, considers Turkey “one of the principal partners of the West in its war against Islam.”As for the adoption of a new terrorist tactic, the Daallo bombing may be a sign of a power play among Islamist groups. For the past year, Islamic State has been agitating for al-Shabaab to renounce al Qaeda and pledge its allegiance to Islamic State’s self-proclaimed caliphate. While Islamic State continues to struggle for a foothold in Somalia, the group has become popular among some of al-Shabaab’s younger members and its cadres of foreign fighters. These are Muslims from all around the world, including young men from the Western-based Somali diaspora. For these ideologically committed fighters, Islamic State’s success makes the group a very attractive prospect.Al-Shabaab’s leadership is happy to respond with brutal crackdowns on any members who have shifted their loyalties, but it must also try to win over Islamic State sympathizers. For al-Shabaab to emulate the sort of higher-profile terrorism now associated with its global jihadist rival may be one way for it to do so.Also notable is the long delay before al-Shabaab this weekend finally claimed responsibility for the bombing. This may suggest the group was at first reluctant to be associated with a rather embarrassing failure. However, while the attack didn’t succeed, this had more to do with chance rather than effective counterterrorism. Had the bomb gone off after the aircraft reached cruising altitude, the damage would have been significantly worse. If al-Shabaab learns its lessons here and persists with this new tactic, the next attack could be far more devastating.It may be premature to claim that we are witnessing a resurgence from al-Shabaab, but recent high-profile developments should serve as a reminder that, while Islamic State grabs the headlines, al Qaeda and its affiliates continue to pose a threat for the foreseeable future.Mr. Meleagrou-Hitchens is a lecturer at King’s College London and head of research at its International Centre for the Study of Radicalization.

On Jan. 29, the National Commission on the Future of the U.S. Army released its report on a wide range of issues confronting the Army. Its more than 60 recommendations addressed details as specific as the proper ratio of attack-helicopter battalions between the active Army and the Reserves. Yet for all its good work, the commission neglected to tackle the Army’s biggest problem: its declining ability to wage the kind of protracted irregular wars that America’s enemies increasingly prefer to fight.The roots of this problem lie chiefly in the social choice the American people made following the Vietnam War to abolish the draft and field the military entirely with volunteers. That decision has become so expensive that it now threatens to limit U.S. defense options.The shift to a volunteer force seemed logical at the time. A Cold War Army of volunteers would stand guard in Europe and Korea to deter aggression. In the event war came, the National Guard and Reserves would be mobilized and the draft reinstated if necessary.

“Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster”― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 6 of 10 01/05/2023

Page 7: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaida-45-Our Performance-13

CdW Intelligence to Rent -2016- In Confidence [email protected]

Following the Iraq war that began in 2003, however, the Army found itself in protracted conflicts against irregular forces in Afghanistan and Iraq. These

are the new “Vietnams” the Army’s civilian masters said it didn’t need to plan for again…Ignoring wars does not make them go away. Nor does simply drawing down international military forces. This is what NATO did in Afghanistan at the end of 2014, when the UN -mandated International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) closed its doors, and with that most international military forces left. Those of us watching Afghanistan were not surprised at the findings of the most recent annual report by the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) in cooperation with the UN Human Rights Office on the 'Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict'. Overshadowed by the violence in Syria, news from Afghanistan rarely makes headlines unless it is a reminder of the dire situation there.

NATO Commander Breedlove Discusses Implications of Hybrid WarBy Jim Garamone DoD News, Defense Media ActivityWASHINGTON, March 23, 2015 – Air Force Gen. Philip M. Breedlove discussed the implications of hybrid war during a presentation to the Brussels Forum over the weekend.Breedlove, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe and commander of U.S. European Command, said Russia’s illegal occupation of Crimea and continued actions in the rest of Eastern Ukraine is a form of hybrid war. Russia is using diplomacy, information warfare, and its military and economic means to wage this campaign, he added.Aspects of Hybrid WarOne of the first aspects of the hybrid war is to attack credibility and to try to separate a nation from its support mechanisms, the general said. “Informationally, this is probably the most impressive new part of this hybrid war, all of the different tools to create a false narrative,” he said. “We begin to talk about the speed and the power of a lie, how to get a

“Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster”― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 7 of 10 01/05/2023

Page 8: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaida-45-Our Performance-13

CdW Intelligence to Rent -2016- In Confidence [email protected]

false narrative out, and then how to sustain that false narrative through all of the new tools that are out there.”

Military tools remain relatively unchanged, he said. “But how they are used or how they are hidden in their use, is the new part of this hybrid war,” the general said. “How do we recognize, how do we characterize and then how do we attribute this new employment of the military in a way that is built to bring about ambiguity?”An Across-government Approach Using the economic tool, he said, hybrid warfare allows a country to bring pressure on economies, but also on energy.“What the military needs to do is to use those traditional military intelligence tools to develop the truth. The way you attack a lie is with the truth,” Breedlove said. “I think that you have to attack an all of a government approach with an all of government approach. The military needs to be able to do its part, but we need to bring exposure to those diplomatic pressures and return the diplomatic pressure. We need to, as a Western group of nations or as an alliance, engage in this information warfare to … drag the false narrative out into the light and expose it.”Regarding Western response to Russian actions in Ukraine, no tool should be off the table, Breedlove said.“In Ukraine, what we see is what we talked about earlier, diplomatic tools being used, informational tools being used, military tools being used, economic tools being used against Ukraine,” he said. “We, I think, in the West, should consider all of our tools in reply. Could it be destabilizing? The answer is yes. Also, inaction could be destabilizing.”

Regards Cees ***

Pentagon mercenaries: Blackwater, Al-Qaeda… what’s in a name?Finian Cunningham (born 1963) has written extensively on international affairs, with articles published in several languages. Originally from Belfast, Northern Ireland, he is a Master’s graduate in Agricultural Chemistry and worked as a scientific editor for the Royal Society of Chemistry, Cambridge, England, before pursuing a career in newspaper journalism. For over 20 years he worked as an editor and writer in major news media organizations, including The Mirror, Irish Times and Independent. Now a freelance journalist based in East Africa, his columns appear on RT, Sputnik, Strategic Culture Foundation and Press TV.

Feb 21, CIA-linked private “security” companies are fighting in Yemen for the US-backed Saudi military campaign. Al-Qaeda-affiliated mercenaries are also being deployed. Melding private firms with terror outfits should not surprise. It’s all part of illegal war making.Western news media scarcely report on the conflict in Yemen, let alone the heavy deployment of Western mercenaries in the fighting there. In the occasional Western report on Al-Qaeda and related terror groups in Yemen, it is usually in the context of intermittent drone strikes carried out by the US, or with the narrative that these militants are “taking advantage” of the chaos “to expand” their presence in the Arabian Peninsula, as reported here by the Washington Post.This bifurcated Western media view of Yemen belies a more accurate and meaningful perspective, which is that the US-backed Saudi bombing campaign is actually coordinated with an on-the-ground military force that comprises regular troops, private security firms

“Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster”― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 8 of 10 01/05/2023

Page 9: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaida-45-Our Performance-13

CdW Intelligence to Rent -2016- In Confidence [email protected]

and Al-Qaeda type mercenaries redeployed from Syria.There can be little doubt in Syria – despite Western denials – that the so-

called Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL)) jihadists and related Al-Qaeda brigades in Jabhat al-Nusra, Jaish al-Fateh, Ahrar ash-Sham and so on, have been infiltrated, weaponized and deployed for the objective of regime-change by the US and its allies. If that is true for Syria, then it is also true for Yemen. Indeed, the covert connection becomes even more apparent in Yemen. Last November, the New York Times confirmed what many Yemeni sources had long been saying. That the US-backed Saudi military coalition trying to defeat a popular uprising was relying on mercenaries supplied by private security firms tightly associated with the Pentagon and the CIA.The mercenaries were recruited by companies linked to Erik Prince, the former US Special Forces commando-turned businessman, who set up Blackwater Worldwide. The latter and its re-branded incarnations, Xe Services and Academi, remain a top private security contractor for the Pentagon, despite employees being convicted for massacring civilians while on duty in Iraq in 2007. In 2010, for example, the Obama administration awarded the contractor more than $200 million in security and CIA work.Erik Prince, who is based primarily in Virginia where he runs other military training centers, set up a mercenary hub in the United Arab Emirates five years ago with full support from the royal rulers of the oil-rich state. The UAE Company took the name Reflex Responses or R2. The NY Times reported that some 400 mercenaries were dispatched from the Emirates’ training camps to take up assignment in Yemen. Hundreds more are being trained up back in the UAE for the same deployment.This is just one stream of several “soldiers of fortune” going into Yemen to fight against the uprising led by Houthi rebels, who are in alliance with remnants of the national army. That insurgency succeeded in kicking out the US and Saudi-backed president Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi in early 2015. Hadi has been described as a foreign puppet, who presided over a corrupt regime of cronyism and vicious repression.Since last March, the Saudis and other Persian Gulf Arab states have been bombing Yemen on a daily basis in order to overthrow the Houthi-led rebellion and reinstall the exiled Hadi.Washington and Britain have supplied warplanes and missiles, as well as logistics, in the Saudi-led campaign, which has resulted in thousands of civilian deaths. The involvement of Blackwater-type mercenaries – closely associated with the Pentagon – can also be seen as another form of American contribution to the Saudi-led campaign.The mercenaries sent from the UAE to Yemen are fighting alongside other mercenaries that the Saudis have reportedly enlisted from Sudan, Eritrea and Morocco. Most are former soldiers, who are paid up to $1,000 a week while serving in Yemen. Many of the Blackwater-connected fighters from the UAE are recruited from Latin America: El Salvador, Panama and primarily Colombia, which is considered to have good experience in counter-insurgency combat.Also among the mercenaries are American, British, French and Australian nationals. They are reportedly deployed in formations along with regular troops from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE.In recent months, the Houthi rebels (also known as Ansarullah) and their allies from the Yemeni army – who formed a united front called the Popular Committees – have inflicted heavy casualties on the US-Saudi coalition. Hundreds of troops have been reportedly killed in gun battles in the Yemeni provinces of Marib, in the east, and Taiz, to the west. The rebels’ use of Tochka ballistic missiles has had particularly devastating results.

“Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster”― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 9 of 10 01/05/2023

Page 10: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaida-45-Our Performance-13

CdW Intelligence to Rent -2016- In Confidence [email protected]

So much so that it is reported that the Blackwater-affiliated mercenaries have “abandoned the Taiz front” after suffering heavy casualties over the last two

months. “Most of the Blackwater operatives killed in Yemen were believed to be from Colombia and Argentina; however, there were also casualties from the United States, Australia and France,” Masdar News reports.Into this murky mix are added extremist Sunni militants who have been dispatched to Yemen from Syria. They can be said to be closely related, if not fully integrated, with Al-Qaeda or IS in that they profess allegiance to a “caliphate” based on a fundamentalist Wahhabi, or Takfiri, ideology.These militants began arriving in Yemen in large numbers within weeks of Russia’s military intervention in Syria beginning at the end of September, according to Yemeni Army spokesman Brigadier General Sharaf Luqman. Russian air power immediately began inflicting severe losses on the extremists there. Senior Yemeni military sources said that hundreds of IS-affiliated fighters were flown into Yemen’s southern port city of Aden onboard commercial aircraft belonging to Turkey, Qatar and the UAE.Soon after the militants arrived, Aden residents said the city had descended into a reign of terror. The integrated relationship with the US-Saudi coalition can be deduced from the fact that Aden has served as a key forwarding military base for the coalition. Indeed, it was claimed by Yemen military sources that the newly arrived Takfiri militants were thence dispatched to the front lines in Taiz and Marib, where the Pentagon-affiliated mercenaries and Saudi troops were also assigned.It is true that the Pentagon at times wages war on Al-Qaeda-related terrorists. The US airstrike in Libya on Friday, which killed some 40 IS operatives at an alleged training camp, is being trumpeted by Washington as a major blow against terrorism. And in Yemen since 2011, the CIA and Pentagon have killed many Al-Qaeda cadres in drone strikes, with the group’s leader being reportedly assassinated last June in a US operation.Nevertheless, as the broader US-Saudi campaign in Yemen illustrates, the outsourcing of military services to private mercenaries in conjunction with terrorist militia is evidently an arm of covert force for Washington.This is consistent with how the same groups have been deployed in Syria for the purpose of regime change there.The blurring of lines between regular military, private security contractors with plush offices in Virginia and Abu Dhabi, and out-and-out terror groups is also appropriate. Given the nature of the illegal wars being waged, it all boils down to state-sponsored terrorism in the end.

“Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster”― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 10 of 10 01/05/2023