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Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-122-Caliphate-al-Zawahiri-10-6-Russia

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“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.

If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Russia's Military Will Get Bigger, Better, Equipped and Trained

Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin joked that "tanks don't need visas".

The drills are meant to help the military prepare for the Tsentr-2015 strategic exercises. The war games set to be held in September are expected to be the largest of the 4,000 military drills scheduled to take place in Russia throughout 2015

The Pentagon is planning to send nuclear bombers to Sweden for a military exercise next month amid growing tensions with Russia over the Ukraine crisis. The warplanes, the B-52 Stratofortress, will participate in a naval exercise on June 13, Swedish general Karl Engelbrektson said. "How Russia interprets that, they can decide for themselves," Engelbrektson added.

ROYAL Navy chiefs have directed the fleet’s biggest warship to spearhead high-level Nato war games in the Baltic, as part of a direct response to Moscow’s increasing “military surveillance” of the West. Defence Secretary Michael Fallon has personally approved the deployment of HMS Ocean and she will sail on Tuesday. The helicopter carrier will join a flotilla of 46 Nato vessels taking part in amphibious operations in Poland, within sight of Vladimir Putin’s intelligence base at Kaliningrad.

On Thursday Nato’s senior military commander General Philip Breedlove confirmed that Russia had deployed military systems in eastern Ukraine “with nuclear capabilities”.: “The exercise will start at the end of this month and run into June and we expect this will be a very big show of force to demonstrate that the Alliance is ready to defend the Baltic states who, after all, are members of Nato.”

Nato’s top UK general, Sir Adrian Bradshaw, warned that while the alliance is a defensive organisation it will not accept the spread of Russian violence in the Ukraine. On Thursday Nato’s senior military commander General Philip Breedlove confirmed that Russia had deployed military systems in eastern Ukraine “with nuclear capabilities”.

Russia's military forces have begun a large exercise involving around 250 aircraft and 12,000 service personnel, according to its defence ministry.May 25. The ministry described the four-day drill as a "massive surprise inspection", to check combat readiness. The tests began on the same day as Nato and some of its partners started an Arctic training exercise. Russia's actions in Ukraine and incursions into Western airspace have led to rising tensions with the West. According to reports on the Russian agencies Interfax and Tass, the inspection of the aviation group and air defence forces in the central military district involves almost 700 weapons and pieces of military hardware. During the exercise, Russia's long-range aircraft are due to carry out cruise missile strikes on practice targets in the Komi republic. The BBC's Caroline Wyatt, in Moscow, says the current drills are in preparation for a larger exercise known as Center-2015 in the next few months. Asked about Russia's assertiveness in a TV interview, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin joked that "tanks don't need visas".

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Russian Air Defense Redeployed Amid Combat Readiness Drills26.05.2015 12:08 Air defense missile units taking part in the Russian snap combat readiness exercises have been relocated to the Astrakhan Region to take part in the ongoing massive drills. "Air defense missile units taking part in the snap combat readiness exercises for aviation groups and anti-air defense troops in Russia's Central Military District have been redeployed to Kapustin Yar and Ashuluk in the Astrakhan Region," Russia's Ministry of Defense said. The units will be tasked with target coverage. The four-day drills involving 12,000 military personnel, up to 250 aircraft and 700 pieces of military hardware were launched on Monday on President Vladimir Putin's orders. The drills are meant to help the military prepare for the Tsentr-2015 strategic exercises. The war games set to be held in September are expected to be the largest of the 4,000 military drills scheduled to take place in Russia throughout 2015. Meanwhile, Sweden, Norway and Finland along with other European nations and the United States take part in massive fighter jet drills, dubbed the Arctic Challenge Exercise 2015. The war games, held in close proximity to the Arctic Circle, involve some 115 aircraft, including tanker aircraft and 3,600 personnel. They will last until June 2.

Russia’s new T-50 fighter jet ‘almost a flying robot’ – developerPublished time: May 25, 2015 15:38

Innovative technologies used in the Russia’s fifth generation T-50 fighter jet, which is currently undergoing tests before the start of production in 2016, makes it more of a flying robot than a plane, the developer said.The Sukhoi PAK FA fighter jet, also known as T-50, is “already to some degree a flying robot, where the aviator fulfils the function not only of pilot, but is actually one of the constituent parts

of the flying apparatus. That is, the reaction of the aviator is a part of the control loop,” Vladimir Mikheev, an advisor to the deputy head of the Radioelectronic Technologies Concern [KRET], said. According to Mikheev, another innovative featured employed in the T-50 jet fighter is “smart paneling.” "If we take the wingtip, from one perspective it functions as a wing, but from another it's also a part of the Himalaya active defense system," the official is cited by Sputnik news agency. KRET, which is a unit of state-run Rostech Corporation, has delivered the batch of Himalaya systems for the aircraft in October last year. “The unique system of active and passive radars and optical rangefinders is integrated into the aircraft body and acts as a 'smart skin'. Its use not only enhances the aircraft’s protection against jamming and its survivability, but also counters, to a great extent, the effects of low-observability [stealth] technology of enemy aircraft," the developer explained back then. Previously, KRET said that T-50 is going to have the most advanced stealth capabilities, leaving even the only combat-ready fifth-generation fighter, the US Air Force's Lockheed F-22 Raptor, behind. “The T-50 is now ahead of not only all other fighters of the Russian Army, but also foreign models. For example, the visibility of the American fifth-generation F-22 fighter is 0.3-0.4 square meters," the developer stressed. The Sukhoi PAK FA’s visibility stands at between 0.1 and 1 square meters, KRET added. According to KRET, T-50 is the first jet fighter in the Russian Air Force to be “made from a high proportion of composite materials, making up 25 percent of the mass of the aircraft and covering 70 percent of its surface." The T-50 is set to replace the Sukhoi Su-27 and Mig-29 fourth generation fighter jet, which entered service in 1985 and

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1983, respectively. The Russian Air Force plans to purchase 55 T-50 fighter jets between 2016 and 2020, Goncharenko said in December.

Russia tests monster hovercraft in live fire Baltic Sea military exerciseBy Yasmin Kaye May 7, 2015 23:29 BST Russia tested the Yevgeny Kocheshkov hovercraft in a live-fire exercise on the Baltic SeaRussian Ministry of Defence The largest amphibious hovercraft in the world has been tested in live artillery fire drills by Russia, which sent it to the Baltic Sea. According to Russia's Ministry of Defence, the MDKVP "Yevgeny Kocheshkov" Zubr-class craft completed a series of military drills, including live fire at aerial targets. The heavily armed craft fired at aerial targets with artillery guns and the marine equivalent of the Grad missile."Luminous SAB-250 bombs arranged in the form of garlands with glowing elements were suspended as targets by Sukhoi Su-24 bomber jets from the naval aviation of the Baltic Fleet," it said on Wednesday (6 May). The Zubr-class air-cushioned landing craft is capable of carrying large amounts of cargo and personnel, and is designed to transport assault units to the shore under enemy fire.  Thanks to its air cushion, it can traverse harsh land conditions and is capable of landing on 70% of the total length of the world's coastlines. The Zubr-class vessel can carry up to 130 tonnes of cargo which amounts to as many as three medium battle tanks such as the T-80B tank or eight BMP-2 infantry combat vehicles according to Naval Technology's specs sheet of the vessel. Alternatively the Zubr can also carry 10 BTR-70 APCs at once or 360 fully equipped amphibious landing troops. Other elements of the vessel which were tested in the exercise beside its firing capabilities were damage control, radiation exposure, chemical and biological protection of the ship into the sea. Russia shares the Baltic Sea with NATO allies Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland, as well as with EU members Sweden and Finland. Its major access point to the waters is the enclave city of Kaliningrad which is separated from mainland Russia by the territory of Poland and Lithuania. A recent Newsweek investigation found that the increased military build-up in Kaliningrad has turned the city into "a veritable arms depot". Earlier this year defence officials from Baltic states expressed concern at the amount of Russian military activity near their respective territories

Putin’s Political Pause Amid National Mobilization Eurasia Daily Monitor -- Volume 12, Issue 83 As if trying to compensate for his recent “disappearance” in early March, President Vladimir Putin participated in a series of high-intensity meetings and public events last week. His domestic audiences included students and “heroes of labor”; instructions were issued to government ministers, members of the Security Council and even to the Russian Geographic Society. Indeed, the presidential activities completely dominated news coverage in the official TV channels. The main message of all these accentuated efforts at executing leadership was a plain demonstration of Putin’s undiminished capacity for his trademark “manual management” of micro-problems important to “ordinary Russians” (Ezhednevny Zhurnal, May 1). The Kremlin spin-doctors probably saw the need to deliver this message before the traditional spring break, when the urban dwellers flock to their dachas and temporarily escape the reach of propaganda (Gazeta.ru,

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April 29). The Kremlin has a growing need to keep the country mobilized around Putin’s agenda, which, in essence, consists of asserting his monopoly on power while he postpones key political decisions (Slon.ru, April 28). This procrastination is most obvious in economic crisis management as Putin redoubles his efforts to reassure Russians of the “inevitable” recovery stimulated by the relative stabilization of the ruble (Newtimes.ru, April 27). Massive expenditure of accumulated financial reserves has provided a measure of buoyancy to the national currency, but investment activity remains severely depressed. Current macro-economic indicators show a deeper GDP decline than the worst government estimate, and experts argue mostly about the depth of forthcoming contractions (Rbc.ru, April 29). The political elites tend to assume that the fall in real incomes is insignificant against the background of “patriotic unity,” but the steady increase in strikes and other economic protests shows a different picture (Gazeta.ru, May 1). No amount of official optimism can dispel the impressions supplied by daily economic interactions; instead, the smart combination of denials and explanations only confirms that the government cannot produce any coherent plan for overcoming crisis that would fit with Putin’s anti-liberal mindset (Forbes.ru, April 28). It is quite remarkable that, in the deluge of reassuring rhetoric, Putin carefully avoids several topics that are attracting plenty of debates in the limited public space left for such exercises. One example is the irreversible degeneration of the space industry: Though it has manifested itself in the recent failure to deliver the transport vehicle “Progress” to the International Space Station, this degeneration involves a wide range of organizational and financial problems, including the serious delay with the construction of the Vostochny launch site in the Far East (Slon.ru, April 30). Another shunned topic is the legal case against Gazprom filed by the European Commission, which can only be settled if the Russian “gas champion” would change its monopolistic ways in the EU market (Carnegie.ru, April 26). Perhaps the most conspicuous theme for Putin’s silence is the developing feud between Chechnya’s despotic ruler Ramzan Kadyrov and the heavy-weight siloviki (security services personnel) from the Ministry of Interior and the Federal Security Service (FSB), in which the brutal murder of Boris Nemtsov two months ago is just a means to an end of redistributing financial flows and power resources (Polit.ru, April 30).

This clash is merely a symptom of profound disorganization within Putin’s system of power, which is encountering challenges beyond its ability to keep going by appropriating petro-rents and faking loyalty. State corporations, instead of donating cash to good political causes, demand budget funding for covering their mounting losses. Meanwhile, regional governors construct financial pyramids of unpaid taxes and bad debts (Carnegie.ru, April 14). Putin’s pause does nothing for disciplining the over-grown state apparatus, which cannot change its predatory ways and shrugs off an occasional dismissal of a governor for inordinate thievery as indifferently as it responds to the instruction that a governor’s salary should not be several times higher than the average for the respective region (Kommersant, April 29). The president’s reassuring rhetoric (such as: “I would not even call it a crisis—we have certain developments and complications”) (Kremlin.ru, April 28) apparently rings hollow for the army of corrupt bureaucrats who keep evacuating their fortunes abroad. The only workable instrument of Putin’s policy is, in fact, war. And despite his moderate remarks about Moscow’s dialogue with the Kyiv government, the official propaganda keeps fanning the hatred generated by the already painful traumas in Russian society inflicted by the “hybrid war” (Novaya Gazeta, April 28). Putin had a telephone conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and Ukrainian President Petro

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Poroshenko last Thursday (April 30), and confirmed his commitment to the full implementation of the Minsk agreements (Kommersant, April 30). Fresh ceasefire violations immediately multiplied after that peace-making conversation, and heavy Russian artillery has moved back toward positions within the effective fire range (Newsru.com, May 3). Russian mainstream media gloats over the futility of the Ukraine–European Union summit in Kyiv last week and spins all sorts of speculations regarding the deployment of 300 US personnel from the 173rd Airborne Brigade to Lviv oblast for training several battalions of the Ukrainian National Guard (Rossiiskaya Gazeta, April 27). The focal point for the “patriotic” propaganda for the last several months has been the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory in the Great Patriotic War (as World War II is known in Russia), which is now just a few days away. Reflections on the horrible costs of that bitter victory or on coalition efforts with the Allies have been nearly nonexistent; instead, jingoistic triumphalism, combined with the traditional display of military might, translates into an eager anticipation of yet another victorious campaign. Putin has invested a lot of personal effort in turning this celebration into a demonstration of Russia’s prominent position in the international arena, and now has to swallow not only the fruits of isolation but also the consequences of progressing economic feebleness. The artificially induced moment of national unity will likely dissipate with unpredictable speed in the weeks to come, so his window for a new morale-boosting aggressive action may turn out to be quite narrow.  --Pavel K. Baev

The Russians aren’t coming! How & why hawks hype ‘threat’ to Baltic States Published time: May 04, 2015 11:05

RIA Novosti/Alexei DanichevWhen it comes to trying to scare people in the West about non-existent threats, neocons and right-wing hawks in the US and Britain have no peers. In 2003, they told us that Saddam Hussein had WMDs. War ensued and thousands died. They repeatedly told us – without supplying a shred of evidence – that Iran was producing nuclear weapons, so harsh sanctions were imposed on the Islamic Republic, causing great suffering to ordinary Iranians. Now, they’re working 24/7 to persuade us Russia poses a major threat to NATO members, with a particular focus on the Baltic States. An article in the Daily Signal by Lee Edwards, a biographer of Ronald Reagan and a ‘distinguished fellow‘ of the hard-right Heritage Foundation, is a classic of the ’Russian threat’ genre: “Why Putin’s ‘Russification’ campaign against the Baltics should be big news for us” includes not just warnings about Russia, but also the obligatory attacks on RT, a channel which launched in 2005, but which the author states is “barely two years old.”

The very first sentence of Edwards’ article sets the fear-mongering tone: “Washington policymakers are overlooking a potentially serious foreign policy crisis: the mounting Russian pressure, economic, political and military, on the tiny but strategically located Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.” Edwards explains to his readers what those dastardly Russkies are up to: "All this activity is calculated to build a Russian presence in the Baltics that would justify Moscow coming to the aid of ‘threatened’ compatriots as it has done in eastern Ukraine." In his article, Edwards echoes the warnings made by Britain’s belligerent Defence Minister Michael Fallon. In February, Fallon said there was ‘a real and present danger’ of Russia trying to destabilize the

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Baltic States. ‘I’m worried about his (Putin’s) pressure on the Baltics, the way he is testing NATO,’ Fallon declared.

But does Russia really pose a threat to the Baltic States? Here’s the case for the prosecution. The Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced last week they had summoned the Russian Ambassador to express ‘strong protest on the repeated Russia’s naval activities in the Baltic Sea’. The Lithuanians stated that ‘on April 30 a Russian ship of the Russian Navy Baltic Fleet during its regular military exercises entered the Lithuanian exclusive economic zone and illegally ordered a change of course to the ALCEDO ship managed by the ABB group’. They also said ‘similar incidents’ took place on March19, April 10 and April 24 this year. In addition, the Latvian authorities claimed on Sunday they have detected two Russian ships and a submarine near Latvia's border The Russians haven’t replied to the Lithuanian charges yet. Should we take them, if confirmed, as evidence that the neocons for once are right? It’s very important to see the bigger picture.

Relations between Lithuania and Russia are not very good and it’s been the Lithuanians, whose rhetoric has been the more aggressive. Last year, Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite called Russia a “state with terrorist elements” in an interview with the the Washington Post. In answer to the very loaded question: “Are you worried that he (Putin) will next attack the Baltics?” which is of course predicated on the mistruth that Putin “attacked” Ukraine, Grybauskaite replied: “If he is not be stopped in Ukraine, he will go further.” Then, rather outrageously, the Lithuanian president compared Russia to ISIS (commonly known as the Islamic State), saying: “The danger of Russia’s behavior today is not smaller than what we have with ISIS in Iraq and Syria.” In another interview, with a German magazine, Lithuania’s so-called ‘Iron Lady’ compared Putin to Hitler and Stalin. ‘(Putin) uses nationality as a pretext to conquer territory with military means. That’s exactly what Hitler and Stalin did. Such comparisons are spot on.’

In April, Russian Ambassador to the EU Vladimir Chizhov accused Lithuania of driving the EU’s anti-trust case against Gazprom, which could lead to the Russian energy company being hit with a fine of more than $10 billion. Let’s be fair: one can understand, given 20th century history, some fear of Russia and indeed security fears in general in the Baltic States, which are small, strategically important countries, and vulnerable to attack from larger, more powerful nations. The Baltic States were invaded by the Soviet Union in 1940, under the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, and there were mass deportations. Estonia is a country that at one time or another seems to have been invaded/occupied by just about every major power on the European mainland. The permanent exhibition at the Estonian Museum of History in Tallinn, where I spent a fascinating day in 2013, entitled ’Spirit of Survival, 11,000 Years of Estonian History’, helps give you an understanding of how important national

independence is to a people who’ve spent most of their history under the rule of others. But while it’s important – and indeed essential – to understand the Baltic perspective, the crude Russophobia of politicians like Grybauskaite is inexcusable, as are the actions of Western hawks who seek to exploit historic fears of Russia to further their own geo-political interests. The fact is, Russia fully respects the sovereignty of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

To claim that we are ‘back in 1940’ is ludicrous. Two years ago, I visited the beautiful island of Saaremaa, in Estonia, which was the site of the most westerly base in the Soviet Union. The Red Army has long gone though, and the idea that Russia might return with tanks is quite absurd; no matter what the neocons tell us, it simply isn’t going to happen.

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Only a real mischief-maker would interpret Russia’s legitimate concerns for the rights of ethnic Russians living in the Baltic States as an attempt to ‘destabilize’ those countries. It’s clearly wrong that there is no official status for the Russian language in Latvia, a country where a large percentage of the population are native Russian speakers, and that ethnic Russians in Estonia, who make up around a quarter of the population, have to pass an Estonian language exam to get citizenship if they weren’t living in the country in pre-Soviet times. Conceding that great wrongs have been done to the Baltic States in the past, shouldn’t stop us from speaking out about such current injustices, or indeed attempts to rewrite history when it comes to Nazi collaboration in the Baltic States in World War II, which has quite rightly caused outrage, and not just in Russia. In his 2009 essay on this pernicious revisionism, the Guardian’s Seumas Milne wrote. "The real meaning of the attempt to equate Nazi genocide with Soviet repression is clearest in the Baltic republics, where collaboration with SS death squads and direct participation in the mass murder of Jews was at its most extreme, and politicians are at pains to turn perpetrators into victims. Veterans of the Latvian Legion of the Waffen-SS now parade through Riga and Vilnius's Museum of Genocide Victims barely mentions the 200,000 Lithuanian Jews murdered in the Holocaust. Estonian parliamentarians honor those who served the Third Reich as "fighters for independence." The attempts to turn perpetrators into victims continue. In March, over 1,500 Latvians marched through the country’s capital Riga, to commemorate those who fought alongside Nazi Germany in the Waffen-SS Latvian division. The US Embassy in Riga warned US citizens to maintain ’a high level of vigilance,’ but the US didn’t condemn the march, as Russia and the anti-fascist Simon Wiesenthal Centre did. Marches honoring SS divisions are not the only anti-Russian provocations to have taken place in the Baltic States.

In February, over 140 pieces of heavy NATO armory were paraded a mere 300 meters from the Russian border, in the town of Narva, in Estonia. We can only imagine what the US reaction would have been if Russia had showed off its weaponry in such a way right on the US border. This Monday NATO starts 10 days of ‘war games’ in Estonia, called ’Sill’. It involves 13,000 soldiers. NATO is increasing tensions in the region with its maneuvers. It’s in the interest of the Baltic States and Russia to have a friendly relationship based on mutual self-respect. But the hawks in the West, and their local proxies, clearly don’t want constructive co-operation, but more baiting of the Russian bear. We can expect warnings about the ‘threat’ Russia poses to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to intensify in the weeks ahead. Why? Because in July the current EU sanctions against Russia are due to expire. The very last thing the Western war lobby wants is for sanctions to be lifted – they want them to be extended to include draconian measures such as Russia’s exclusion from the SWIFT banking system. But they’ve got a problem. Minsk II is working well. Too well! The peace agreement brokered by Germany, France and Russia is generally holding, to the obvious frustration of the hawks who need a pretext to ‘punish’ Russia for blocking war against the Syrian government in 2013. Read Ray McGovern’s piece on neocon ‘chaos promotion’ in the Middle East – and my previous Op-Ed on the neocon anger that we didn’t bomb Damascus in 2013, and reflect how neocon fingerprints at the US State Department were on the ‘regime change’ operation in Kiev, which led to the country’s descent into a bloody civil war. The anti-Russia brigade need another arena, in which they can point the finger of blame at Putin, to justify sanctions being maintained and (hopefully) strengthened. As a new front in the neocon Cold War versus Russia, the Baltics will do quite nicely. The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.

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May 18 to May 21  Chinese and Russian naval ships conducted replenishment and escort drills Tuesday in the Mediterranean in the ongoing joint naval exercise code-named "Joint Sea 2015-I", Reuters reports. During the replenishment drill starting at around 10:00, the Russian cruiser Moskva, the Chinese missile frigate Weifang and the Russian frigate Ladnyy moved towards the Chinese supply ship Weishanhu. After half an hour, the cruiser and frigates received resupply from the supply ship. "The ship which needed to be resupplied considered Weishanhu as a reference point. It must stop at a fixed point and keep a fixed distance with our ship. Meanwhile, officers and equipment on both ships must get ready for resupply," said Wang Ke, captain of the supply ship Weishanhu.

Countering US-NATO in the Black Sea and BeyondBy Eric Draitser Global Research, May 22, 2015 New Eastern Outlook

A previous article entitled Battlefield: Black Sea examined the development of US and NATO military deployment in the Black Sea region. This article focuses on the ways in which Russia is moving to counter what it perceives as an aggressive US-NATO strategy.Russia’s Counterstrategy After the US-backed coup in Ukraine, the people of Crimea voted for reunification with Russia. While this was undoubtedly a politically and economically motivated move to secure their own safety and future amid the entirely predictable collapse of Ukraine, it would not have been possible without a clear military and strategic (and of course political and diplomatic) benefit for Russia. That such a benefit existed was plainly obvious. For Moscow, Crimea is more than a historic territory of Russia; it is a strategically vital region for Russia’s navy and military generally.The security and integrity of the Russian Black Sea fleet, based in Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula for more than two centuries, was of primary importance to Moscow. As such, since the accession of Crimea to the Russian Federation, and the chaos throughout Ukraine, the Kremlin has moved quickly to modernize and bolster its naval assets in the Black Sea. While this was necessary by any measure, the move was also to preempt any military escalation by US-NATO; Washington and Brussels have moved ahead with their military buildup regardless.Within months of the Crimea referendum, Russia announced a massive upgrade of the Black Sea fleet, in order to make it, in the words of Russian military officials, “modern” and “self-sufficient.” As Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Admiral Viktor Chirkov explained, “The Black Sea Fleet must have a full complement of naval vessels to be capable of performing all assigned missions…This is not a provocative military buildup. This is something the Black Sea Fleet urgently needs as it has not been receiving new vessels for many years.” As part of this modernization and upgrade, the fleet will receive 30 new ships by the end of the decade, including a full complement of modern warships, submarines, and auxiliary vessels. Additionally, Moscow intends for the fleet to be self-sufficient, meaning that it will expand bases, house troops year-round, and generally be able to support itself in Crimea without the need for special assistance from Moscow.But Russia of course recognizes that the growing political conflict with the West, with all the attendant military and strategic implications, requires partners and allies. With that in mind, Moscow has worked diligently to foster military cooperation with China generally, and in the Black Sea specifically.Chinese Allies, Chinese Partners Earlier this year, Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed on a preliminary military deal worth upwards of $3.5 billion.

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According to Chinese media reports, the agreement would see Russia providing fighter jets, submarines, and other advanced military technology and hardware. This would mark a major turning point in military cooperation between the two countries which has had a rocky recent history. Of course, it is a mutually beneficial cooperation as Russia gains a valuable political and military partner in its conflict with the West, while China gains access to critical military hardware in its escalating conflict with Japan and in the South China Sea.But it’s much more than just military hardware contracts between the two countries. Russia and China, under the auspices of the Shanghai cooperation Organization (SCO) have engaged in a growing number of joint military exercises. In 2014, SCO states participated in the largest ever joint operations between the two countries. As Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigustated:We have vast potential of cooperation in the defense sphere, and the Russian side is ready to develop it is a wide range of areas… amid a highly volatile world situation, it becomes particularly important to strengthen reliable good-neighbourly relations between our countries…This is not only an important factor for security of states but also a contribution to peace and stability on the Eurasian continent and beyond… regular private meetings between the leaders of Russia and China give a powerful impetus to development of bilateral partnership.It is clear that both Russia and China understand the potential and necessity of close military interactions between the two countries. And right now, with US-NATO expanding its presence in the Black Sea, Moscow and Beijing have decided to flex their muscles.While US military forces deploy in Romania, Chinese warships have made an unprecedented move, entering the Black Sea to participate in the Joint Sea 2015 naval exercises with their Russian counterparts. Beijing’s Defense Ministry noted that, “The purpose of the exercise is to strengthen the friendly exchanges between the two sides … and to improve the capability of the two navies to deal with maritime threats,” adding that “this joint exercise is not targeting any third party and is not related to regional security.” While the diplomatic language is meant to soothe relations with Washington, the regional dimension of these exercises is certainly not lost on US military and strategic planners.The Long View on Russia-China Relations But while joint military training and exercises may indicate a growing partnership, they alone do not constitute a military alliance. Indeed, Russia and China have yet to formally declare any such overt alliance, though one could be forgiven for presuming a de facto one. However, the transfer of advanced – and militarily sensitive – defense technology is a concrete indicator of an inchoate alliance between the two powers.In April 2015, it was reported that Beijing would be the first buyer for Russia’s advanced missile defense system known as S-400. Anatoly Isaykin, CEO of Russia’s state-owned military technologies exporter Rosoboronexport, was quoted as saying “I will not disclose the details of the contract, but yes, China has indeed become the first buyer of this sophisticated Russian air defense system… It underlines once again the strategic level of our relations… China will be the first customer.”This deal is militarily significant because of the transfer of advanced missile defense technologies that can provide Beijing with a measure of security from a host of threats, including those stemming from China’s ongoing conflict with Japan over disputed islands, as well as from the US and its aggressive “Asia Pivot” strategy in the South China Sea, and throughout the Asia-Pacific region. However, the agreement between Russia and China is also critical for symbolic reasons. That Moscow decided to provide these advanced systems to China before any other country, and that they would do so at such a critical moment for both countries, indicates that while a formal alliance has yet to be announced, we are witnessing

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one emerging in all but name. In an unprecedented move unthinkable just a few years ago, Chinese troops marched through Red Square during the ceremonies commemorating the 70th anniversary of the Soviet and allied victory over fascism, further proving the symbolic connection between the two countries.The international security dimension is also critical to understanding the importance of the recent deals. The S-400, which is considered capable of matching up against any aggressive missile system employed by the US and NATO, symbolizes a growing, though not yet achieved, military parity between the US-NATO and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Although Washington still postures as if it maintains full spectrum dominance globally, the reality, painful though it may be for many strategic and military planners in the West, is that US-NATO simply does not control Asia or Eastern Europe. Looking at a map, it becomes clear that the total space militarily under the thumb of the US is shrinking, while Russia, China, and their allies are increasingly becoming militarily independent and capable of defense. This sea change in the global chessboard will have implications for decades to come.It is crystal clear that the burgeoning alliance between Russia and China will have implications throughout the world, from the South China Sea to the Atlantic, changing the strategic calculus throughout all of Eurasia; essentially much of the globe. But while direct alliance is still not yet fully realized, its broad contours can be seen in the Black Sea, today one of the hot spots of the East-West conflict. The US-NATO presence in the Black Sea and the littoral countries is a clear indicator of the importance Washington and Brussels attach to this area along the southern border of Russia. Conversely, Russia has made countermoves to both show strength and to increase its military readiness in the face of the West’s provocative moves in Russia’s traditional sphere of influence.While the chances of a military conflict remain low, even the potential raises terrifying possibilities. A nuclear power like Russia that, despite its military might and technical expertise, is still far behind the US with its robust military-industrial complex which never had to go through the dismantling that Russia’s did in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union. As such, Russia would be heavily reliant on nuclear deterrence, thereby creating the potential for an apocalyptic confrontation. Such a doomsday scenario, though unlikely, should give everyone pause.In the interest of peace, the US and its allies, were they interested in stability rather than expanding their own hegemony, would do well to respect Russia’s sphere of influence and do everything to defuse the situation. However, for the West, war is good for business. And with the growing tensions with Russia, especially in the Black Sea, business is most certainly booming. Eric Draitser is an independent geopolitical analyst based in New York City, he is the founder of StopImperialism.org and OP-ed columnist for RT, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

Cees: Intel to Rent Page 10 of 10 18/04/2023