Addressing the High Proportion of Overage Students in Nepal

Addressing the High Proportion of Overage Students in Nepal

Global Education Leadership Conference 2015

Selene Sunmin Lee

Harvard Kennedy School (MPP ’10)

[email protected]

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Acknowledgement …………………………………………………………………………... 1

I. Context ……………………………………………………………………………………. 2

A. National context ……………………………………………………………………….. 2

B. Educational context …………...………………………………………………………. 3

II. Education problem ………...……………………………………………………………... 5

A. High proportion of overage students in schools ..…………………………………..…. 5

B. Demographic profile of overage students ..……………………………………………. 7

C. Causes and consequences of the problem …..…………………………………………. 8

III. Policy options to address late entry into primary school ………………………...……… 9

A. Feeder schools ………………………………………………………………………… 11

B. Multilingual education ………………………………………………………………… 13

C. Conditional cash transfers to the poorest quintile …………………………………….. 15

D. Early Childhood Development programs for all children ……………………………. 18

IV. Evaluation of policy options ……………………………………………………………. 21

A. Effectiveness ………………………………………………………………………….. 21

B. Cost ……………………………………………………………………………………. 22

C. Targeting ………………………………………………………………………………. 23

D. Political feasibility ……………………………………………………………………. 23

V. Policy recommendation – ECD programs for all children ……………..………………… 24

A. Trade-offs ……………………………………………………………………………... 24

B. Current ECD policy …………………………………………………………………… 25

C. Recommendations to improve current ECD program ………………………………… 26

1. Support children’s holistic development …………………………………………... 26

2. Engage parents …………………………………………………………………….. 28

3. Attract children to ECD programs at the appropriate age …………………………. 29

4. Promote transition to primary school ……………………………………………… 30

VI. Summary and conclusion ……………………………………………………………... 31

Appendix 1: Figures ………………………………………………………………………… 33

Appendix 2: Evaluation of policy options ………………………………………………… 54

Appendix 3: Variables used in bivariate and multivariate analyses ………………………… 55

Bibliography ………………………………………………………………………………… 57

1

Acknowledgement

I would like to thank Professor Fernando Reimers and Nell O’Donnell of Harvard Graduate

School of Education for their guidance on writing this paper, as well as their comments on

previous drafts. I am also grateful to Shiva Lal Bhusal, ECD Specialist of UNICEF Nepal Office,

for answering many questions on Nepal’s ECD policies and directing me to important sources of

information. In addition, I thank Dipu Shakya, Education consultant of UNICEF Nepal Office,

for his comments on a previous draft. Furthermore, I would like thank Sangbaek Park, my

husband, for reading and commenting extensively on numerous versions of this paper.

Lastly, I acknowledge that the Nepal Central Bureau of Statistics provided raw data from the

Nepal Living Standard Survey (NLSS) III for this paper.

2

Abstract: In Nepal, 68.1% of students in grades 1-12 are overage for their grade by 2 years or

more. This problem is first caused by the high proportion of late entry into primary school, and it

is exacerbated by high repetition rates. The high proportion of overage students in school is a

serious problem, because it can have negative consequences at the individual, classroom, and

national level. This paper presents four policy options to address the initial cause of the problem,

late entry into primary schools: building feeder schools, providing multilingual education,

providing conditional cash transfers to poor children, and expanding ECD programs to all

children. Based on the criteria of effectiveness, cost, targeting, and political feasibility,

expanding ECD programs to all children was found to be the best policy option for increasing

on-time entry into primary schools. The current ECD program in Nepal can better support this

goal by focusing on the holistic development of a child, engaging parents, attracting children to

ECD programs at the appropriate age, and promoting children’s transition into primary school.

I. Context

A. National context

Nepal is a landlocked country in South Asia, located between India and China.

According to the Nepal Census 2011, the population of Nepal is 26.5 million, which is further

classified into 125 caste/ethnic groups,1 123 mother tongue languages,

2 and 10 religious

groups.3 The surface area of Nepal is 56,826 square miles (Central Intelligence Agency [CIA]),

which is divided into 3 ecological belts4 and 5 development regions.

5 These demographic and

1 The largest caste/ethnic groups are Chhetri (16.6%), Brahman-Hill (12.2%), Magar (7.1%), Tharu (6.6%), Tamang

(5.8%), and Newar (5.0%). Source: Nepal Census 2011 2 The most popular languages spoken as the mother tongue are Nepali (44.6%), Maithili (11.7%), Bhojpuri (6.0%),

Tharu (5.8%), and Tamang (5.1%). Source: Nepal Census 2011 3 The largest religions are Hinduism (81.3%), Buddhism (9.0%), and Islam (4.4%). Source: Nepal Census 2011

4 From north to south : Mountains, Hills, Plains

3

geographic divisions of the population are correlated with school enrollment patterns, which will

be examined later in this paper.

Economically, Nepal is one of the poorest and least developed countries in the world.

According to the CIA World Factbook, Nepal’s GDP (PPP) is $42.06 billion, ranked at 104th

place (out of 229 countries); while the GDP per capita (PPP) is $1,500, ranked at 205th

place (out

of 228 countries). The unemployment rate is 46%, while 75% of the labor force work in the

agricultural sector. The literacy rate6 is 57.4%, 71.1% among males and 46.7% among females.

According to UNDP’s Human Development Report (2014), 24.8% of Nepal’s population live

below the income poverty line of $1.25 (PPP) per day, and the mean years of schooling7 is only

3.2 years. Also, Nepal’s Human Development Index is 0.540, ranked at 145th

place (out of 187

countries), and the country is classified as having “Low Human Development”.

B. Educational context

Formal education became available to the public when democracy was established in

Nepal in 1951 (Parajuli & Das, 2013). Later, basic education was recognized as a fundamental

right of citizens in the Interim Constitution of Nepal (2007), which states that “each community

shall have the right to get basic education in their mother tongue as provided for in the law

(Articles 17.1).”

Until 2009, the schooling system was divided into primary school (grades 1-5), lower

secondary school (grades 6-8), secondary school (grades 9-10), and higher secondary school

(grades 11-12). In 2009, the School Sector Reform Plan restructured the system into basic

5 From west to east: Far West, Mid West, West, Central, East

6 CIA World Factbook: Proportion of the population aged 15 and above that can read and write in any language

7 Human Development Report 2014: Average number of years of education received by people ages 25 and older,

converted from education attainment levels using official durations of each level

4

education (grades 1-8) and secondary education (grades 9-12), and made basic education free

(MoE, 2009).8 <Figure 1> presents the new and old schooling systems, as well as the

appropriate age for each grade. In this paper, the old schooling system will be used, because

many schools in Nepal are still operating under the old system (Pherali, Smith, & Vaux, 2011).

In terms of school enrollment, Nepal has made remarkable progress since 1990, the year

the international community adopted the World Declaration on Education for All (EFA). In 1990,

the Net Enrollment Rate (NER) in primary schools (grades 1-5) was 64.0%, which increased to

84.2% in 2005, then to 95.3% in 2013, as shown in <Figure 2> (Government of Nepal & United

Nations Country Team of Nepal, 2013). However, in contrast to the high NER in primary

schools, the NER in secondary schools remains low. According to the official statistics released

by the Nepal Ministry of Education (MoE) in 2013, the NER is 95.3% in primary schools (grades

1-5), 72.2% in lower secondary schools (grades 6-8), 54.3% in secondary schools (grades 9-10),

and 10.4% in higher secondary schools (grades 11-12), as presented in <Figure 3-a>. Other

sources of data also reveal that the NER decreases in higher levels of schooling. <Figure 3-b>

shows the NER from the Nepal Living Standards Survey (NLSS) III, a household survey which

is conducted every 7 to 8 years by the Nepal Central Bureau of Statistics with assistance from the

World Bank.9 It is also interesting to note the large discrepancies between the NER and GER in

both of these graphs, indicating a high proportion of overage and underage students in school, an

issue which will be examined in detail in this paper.

The promotion, repetition, and dropout rates in grades 1-8, according to official statistics,

is presented in <Figure 4-a>. In addition, <Figure 4-b> shows the promotion and repetition rates

8 The School Sector Reform Plan also includes provisions to make basic education compulsory, but this is not yet

enforced. 9 NLSS I was conducted in 1995-1996, NLSS II was conducted in 2003-2004, and NLSS III was conducted in

2010-2011.

5

of students enrolled in school for 2 consecutive years (which excludes drop-outs), calculated

from official statistics, while <Figure 4-c> presents the same indicators, calculated from NLSS

III data.10

II. Education problem

A. High proportion of overage students in schools

As mentioned above, the NER in primary school is very high (95.3%) but drops

dramatically in secondary school (10.4% in grades 11-12). This gives the illusion that most

children in Nepal enroll in primary school, but increasingly drop out when they reach secondary

school. However, a closer look at the data reveals that this is not true. <Figure 5-a> shows the

school enrollment (in-school vs. out-of-school) of children aged 5-16 (the appropriate age range

for grades 1-12). At every age, more than 70% of children are enrolled in school. Among

children aged 5-9 (the appropriate age range for primary school), 88.6% are in school, while

among children aged 10-16 (the appropriate age for secondary school), 88.1% are in school. In

fact, the low NER in secondary schools, in contrast to the high enrollment rate among children in

this age group, is caused by the large number of children in this age group who are enrolled in

primary schools instead of secondary schools. <Figure 5-b> shows the breakdown, by age, of the

level of school children are enrolled in. If all children were enrolled in their age-appropriate

grade, children aged 5-9 would be enrolled in primary school (colored orange), while children

aged 10-16 would be enrolled in secondary school (colored brown), which is clearly not the

situation in Nepal.

<Figure 6-a> gives a better picture of the problem by showing the breakdown, by age, of

10

The survey only asked students currently enrolled in school what grade they were enrolled in during the previous

year, so the dropout rates could not be calculated.

6

the exact grade that children are enrolled in. The color blue signifies the child is enrolled in an

age-appropriate grade (including 1 grade below the age-appropriate grade),11

green signifies the

child is underage for the grade, red signifies the child is overage for the grade (by 2 years or

more), and grey signifies the child is out-of-school. Among children aged 5-16, only 30.6% are

enrolled in their age-appropriate grade (including 1 grade below), while 1.6% are underage for

their grade, 56.1% are overage for their grade (by 2 years or more), and 11.7% are out-of-school,

as represented in <Figure 6-b>.

Another way to look at this problem is to analyze the age-breakdown of the children

enrolled in each grade, as shown in <Figure 7-a>. This is a reconfiguration of the data in <Figure

6-a>, but it also includes students younger than 5 and older than 16, but excludes out-of-school

children. <Figure 7-b> shows that among students in grades 1-12, only 29.1% are appropriate-

aged for their grade (including being 1 year overage), 2.8% are underage for their grade, and

68.1% are overage for their grade (by 2 years or more). In other words, more than two-thirds of

students in grades 1-12 are overage for their grade by 2 years or more.

These graphs clearly show that a major education problem in Nepal is the large

proportion of overage students in both primary and secondary schools, rather than a high drop-

out rate among adolescents. This problem is not obvious when only looking at the NER which

simply indicates the “total number of students in the theoretical age group for a given level of

education enrolled in that level, expressed as a percentage of the total population in that age

11

Note that 2 grades are considered “appropriate” for each age, because children will get older by one year during

the school year, and we do not know at which point in the school year the child was surveyed. For example, a

child aged 5 who is “appropriately” enrolled in grade 1 will turn 6 during the school year. Therefore, in this paper,

children aged 5 and 6 who are enrolled in grade 1 are both considered to be in an age-appropriate grade. Likewise,

among children aged 6, those who are enrolled in grade 1 (from the previous example) and grade 2 (the official

age-appropriate grade) are both considered to be in an age-appropriate grade. This will inevitably over-estimate

the proportion of children who are age-appropriate for their grade, and under-estimate the proportion of children

who are overage for their grade. Nevertheless, it further supports the claim that the proportion of overage students

in Nepal is high.

7

group” (UNESCO Institute for Statistics [UIS]).

The proportion of overage students in Nepal is high even in regional standards. <Figure

8> reveals that Nepal has the highest proportion of overage students in primary schools in South

Asia (among the countries for which data is available in the UIS database).

B. Demographic profile of overage students

Another problem is that there are statistically significant correlations between the profile

of a child aged 5-16 (the appropriate age range for enrolling in primary and secondary schools)

and the chances of the child being enrolled in an age-appropriate grade (including 1 grade

below).12

<Figure 9-a> shows the results of a multivariate analysis using data from NLSS III

and the following 10 variables: gender, caste/ethnicity, religion, mother tongue, disability,

consumption quintile (proxy for wealth), urban/rural, development region, ecological belt, and

age.13&14

<Figure 9-b> displays the results of the multivariate analysis in a graph. Among the

statistically significant variables, being in the 3 lowest consumption quintiles has the strongest

negative correlation, followed by low caste, consumption quintile 4, Bhojpuri language, Muslim,

Maithili language, middle caste, Mid-Western region, Far-Western region, other languages, rural

areas, and age. Only being female has a positive correlation.

For reference, the multivariate analysis of the demographic profile of a child aged 5-16

and the chances of the child being enrolled in school (vs. being out-of-school) is presented in

<Figure 10>. Interestingly, although girls have a lower chance than boys of being enrolled in

12

Out-of-school children and children who are underage for their grade were excluded from this analysis, because

the purpose of the analysis is to see the correlations between the variables and a child’s chance of being overage

in their grade, once the child is in school. 13

Details on the variables included in the multivariate analysis can be found in <Appendix 3> on pg. 55. 14

Some relevant variables could not be included in the multivariate analysis because information was missing for

large proportions of the sample. For example, mother’s education was missing for 90.0% of the sample, and

distance to school was missing for 29.9% of the sample.

8

school, among children who are enrolled in school, girls have a higher chance than boys of being

enrolled in an age-appropriate grade, controlling for the other variables.

C. Causes and consequences of the problem

In Nepal, the problem of overage students is first caused by the high proportion of late

entry into primary school and it is exacerbated by high repetition rates. The high proportion of

late entrants in primary school can be seen in <Figure 7-c> which shows that 48.5% of new

entrants in grade 1 are overage by 2 years or more, and in <Figure 6-a> which shows that 45.0%

of children age 6 are not yet enrolled in primary school.15

Even after grade 1, the proportion of

overage students continues to increase, reaching 75.4% in grade 7. This indicates that grade

repetition is exacerbating the problem of overage students first caused by late entry into primary

school.16

As shown in <Figure 4-a>, the repetition rate ranges from 19.9% (in grade 1) to 5.1%

(in grade 7). Compared to other countries in the region, Nepal has the highest repetition rate in

primary school (among the countries for which data is available in the UIS database), as

represented in <Figure 8>.

Overage students in school can have negative consequences at the individual, classroom,

and national level. First, at the individual level, overage students are likely to have less years of

schooling, because they are more likely to repeat a grade or drop out of school (UIS & UNICEF,

2014). This may be due to the fact that older children have greater pressure to earn an income for

15

Although the appropriate age to enroll in primary school in Nepal is 5, in this paper, the cohort of 6 year-olds will

be used to analyze late entry into primary school, due to the methodological problem mentioned previously. In

other words, some children aged 4 who are “appropriately” not enrolled in primary school will turn 5 during the

school year, and we do not know at which point in the school year the child was surveyed. Thus, not all 5 year-

olds who are not enrolled in primary school should be considered “inappropriately” out-of-primary-school. On

the other hand, all 6 year-olds should be enrolled in primary school, regardless of when the survey was conducted.

This is why this paper uses the cohort of 6 year-olds to analyze late entry into primary school. 16

This is assuming that the students in grade 1 will follow the same trajectory as the higher-grade cohorts in

<Figure 6-a>. However, keep in mind that this graph is made with cross-sectional data, not longitudinal data.

9

the family instead of going to school (Education Policy and Data Center, 2009). Consequently,

many of the overage students in Nepal may not be able to develop their full potential through

education, which not only decreases their opportunities to find good jobs later, but also deprives

Nepal of the educated workforce it needs to achieve economic development and compete in the

global economy (UNESCO, 2012). Second, at the classroom level, having a wide range of ages

in a classroom can decrease the quality of instruction, because it presents challenges for teachers

to develop a pedagogy that is appropriate for the diverse range of cognitive and physical

development of the students (Nonoyama-Tarumi, Loaiza, & Engle, 2010). Third, at the national

level, large proportions of overage students in school can decrease the internal efficiency of the

education system, because overage students are more likely to repeat a grade or drop out of

school, as mentioned above. Low efficiency in the education system is financially costly, because

it increases the average cost of producing each graduate.

In addition, the fact that there are correlations between children’s profiles and their

chances of attending an age-appropriate grade presents challenges to achieving educational

equity in Nepal, an important principle of the EFA goals. Also, these inequalities pose barriers to

strengthening social cohesion in Nepal as it recovers from a civil war (1996-2006) which had

been caused by socio-economic inequalities (Murshed & Gates, 2005).

III. Policy options to address late entry into primary school

This section presents policy options to address the initial cause of the high proportion of

overage students in schools – late entry into primary school. Addressing late entry into primary

school will not only directly contribute to decreasing the number of overage students in school, it

may also indirectly contribute to solving the problem by addressing the other cause, repetition,

10

since students who start school at the appropriate age (in other words, they are not overage) are

less likely to repeat a grade.

Late entry into primary school is a widespread phenomenon in developing countries,

according to a study by Nonoyama-Tarumi et al. (2010) which examined data from household

surveys in 38 developing countries. Among the countries they analyzed, the median percentage

of overage students among new entrants in grade 1 (those who were 2 years and above the

official entry age) was 28.3%. If Nepal were to be included in this list, it would have the 8th

highest proportion of overage students among new entrants in grade 1, with 48.5% of new

entrants in grade 1 being overage (by 2 years or more17

). For reference, the results of a

multivariate analysis on the correlations between 9 variables (all the variables mentioned

previously, except age) and the chances of a 6 year-old child in Nepal being enrolled in primary

school are presented in <Figure 11-a> and <Figure 11-b>. Among the statistically significant

variables, living in the Plains has the strongest negative correlation, followed by speaking

Bhojpuri language, being in the lowest consumption quintile, and being in the middle

consumption quintile. Again, being female has a positive correlation.

In Nepal, there were already several national efforts to increase children’s enrollment in

primary school. For example, in 2004, UNICEF and its partners launched the “Welcome to

School Campaign” to increase primary school enrollment in 13 districts of Nepal, especially

among children from disadvantaged groups (Lawoti, 2006). The following year, the government

expanded this campaign to all 75 districts of Nepal, resulting in a 21% increase in grade 1

enrollment that year (Jayshi, 2010). Since then, the “Welcome to School Campaign” has been re-

launched at the beginning of every school year (in April). In addition, as mentioned previously,

17

Calculated using NLSS III data.

11

the Ministry of Education established the School Sector Reform Plan in 2009, making basic

education (grades 1-8) free, in an effort to achieve universal enrollment in basic education.

Nevertheless, nearly half of children aged 6 are still not enrolled in primary school, as shown in

<Figure 6-a>. In the following sections, several policy options to address this problem will be

presented and evaluated.

A. Feeder schools

1. Literature review

Distance to school is one of the supply-side barriers to age-appropriate entry into

primary school identified by Nonoyama-Tarumi et al. (2010). When children live far away from

a primary school, parents may perceive that they are too young to travel alone to school, even

when they reach the legal age of enrollment. This is supported by a study by UIS and UNICEF

(2014) on out-of-school children in South Asia, which found that distance to school is a cause of

late entry and early drop-out in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.18

The barriers

created by long distances to schools in these countries are worsened by difficult terrain, cost of

transportation, lack of transportation options, bad weather during certain times of the year, and

security risks of travelling alone, especially for girls. The study also found that children from

marginalized communities are especially affected by this barrier, since they tend to live in rural

and remote areas that are underserved by schools.

In Pakistan, where late entry into primary school is high, even in regional standards,

government has been establishing community-based feeder schools in rural and remote areas that

lack access to government schools, as a part of their effort to achieve universal primary

18

Nepal was not included in this report.

12

education (Pakistan National Commission for Human Development). These feeder schools

provide children with primary education up to grade 3 until they are old enough to travel to

schools that are further away. Since the program began in 2002, 21,000 feeder schools have been

established, resulting in increased primary school enrollment and decreased dropout rates in

areas served by the feeder schools. This example suggests that one way to address late entry into

primary schools could be to establish community-based feeder schools in remote areas, bringing

the lower grades of primary school closer to children in these areas.

2. Context in Nepal

Data from NLSS III suggests that distance to school is not a significant barrier to age-

appropriate entry into primary school in Nepal. When families of out-of-school 6 year-old

children were asked why their child was not enrolled in school, only 4% responded that “the

school was too far away”, as represented in <Figure 12>.19

<Figure 13-a> shows the distance to the closest primary school among the 6 year-olds

who are enrolled in primary school and those who are not enrolled in primary school, using data

from NLSS III.20&21

Interestingly, the results are similar for the in-school and out-of-school

children: 67.2% of both in-school and out-of-school 6 year-olds live within 1 km of the closest

primary school; 90.5% of in-school and 86.6% of out-of-school 6 year-olds live within 2 km of

the closest primary school; and 95.5% of in-school and 91.9% out-of-school 6 year-olds live

within 3 km of the closest primary school. Since the terrain can also influence the time it takes

19

These results must be interpreted with caution, because 6 year-olds attending Early Childhood Development

(ECD) centers were not asked this question. Thus, the results show why these 6 year-olds are not attending any

school (not even ECD centers), but it does not exactly answer why they are not attending primary school. 20

In this analysis, 6 year-olds attending ECD centers were considered to be out-of-school, since the purpose of this

analysis is to see the relationship between the distance to primary school and children’s enrollment in primary

school. 21

These results must be interpreted with caution, because information on distance to school was missing for 33.4%

of in-school and 24.0% of out-of-school 6 year-olds in the survey.

13

for a child to travel to school, the same analysis was conducted using travel time to the closest

primary school. Again, the results were similar for the in-school and out-of-school 6 year-olds, as

represented in <Figure 13-b>: 40.2% of in-school and 42.5% of out-of-school 6 year-olds can

travel to the closest primary school within 10 minutes; 74.2% of in-school and 77.4% of out-of-

school 6 year-olds can travel there within 20 minutes; and 89.8% of in-school and 92.4% of out-

of-school 6 year-olds can travel there within 30 minutes. Lastly, when distance to school was

included in the multivariate analysis in <Figure 14>, the correlation between distance to school

and the chances of a 6 year-old child being enrolled in primary school was not statistically

significant, controlling for the 9 other variables.22

These results suggest that distance to primary

school is not a significant barrier to children’s on-time entry into primary school in Nepal.

B. Multilingual education


Children whose mother tongue is different from the language of instruction could face

significant barriers to age-appropriate entry into primary schools. According to Benson (2012),

children who are not educated in their mother tongue can have low educational attainment, and

are more likely to repeat a grade or drop out of school, which have been documented in countries

including Bolivia, Guatemala, Mexico, Mozambique, Zambia, and Vietnam. This problem is also

related to late entry into primary school, because when families perceive that the return to their

children’s schooling will be low because of the language barrier, they may decide to delay their

children’s school enrollment until they are more fluent in the language of instruction.

To address the issue of language barriers in education, Ball (2010) and Benson (2012)

22

These results must be interpreted with caution, because information on distance to school was missing for 29.9%

of 6 year-olds in the survey.

14

have strongly advocated for mother tongue-based bilingual or multilingual education for young

children. They argue that teaching young children in their mother tongue will significantly

improve their literacy, develop their cognitive skills, and provide them with a strong foundation

for educational achievement in all of the school subjects. They also recommend that the

dominant language of society should first be taught orally in the lower grades of primary school,

then gradually phased into the curriculum in the written form in the higher grades. This will

allow children to transfer the knowledge and skills that they had already acquired through their

mother tongue into their second language. This model of mother tongue-based bilingual or

multilingual education is already being implemented in several countries, including Bolivia and

Mozambique.

2. Context in Nepal

Multilingual education is relevant to the context of Nepal where there are more than 100

languages spoken as a mother tongue. In fact, there are already policy frameworks to support

multilingual education in Nepal. As mentioned previously, the Interim Constitution of Nepal

(2007) states that “each community shall have the right to get basic education in their mother

tongue as provided for in the law (Article 17.1)” The Ministry of Education’s School Sector

Reform Plan (2009) also aims to introduce mother tongue-based multilingual education in 7,500

schools by 2015. To support this, the Mother Tongue-Based Multilingual Education strategy was

established in 2010. This strategy recommends that in pre-primary school, the mother tongue

should be used as the language of instruction; in grades 1-3, the mother tongue should be used as

the language of instruction for all subjects, except Nepali and English; in grades 4-5, the mother

tongue and a second language (specified by the community) should be used as the language of

15

instruction for all subjects, except Nepali and English; and in grades 6-8, the second language

and mother tongue should be used as the language of instruction, while other languages may also

be taught as subjects (UNESCO, 2011). In spite of these policy frameworks, only 25 schools are

currently implementing the MT-MLE strategy (Tumbahang, 2014). Challenges to implementing

the strategy include the existence of more than one local language in a community, parents’

preference to education their children in Nepali or English, and the lack of textbooks, teacher

training, and coordination among stakeholders (UNESCO, 2011).

Data from NLSS III shows that among children aged 6, only 42.4% speak Nepali as their

mother tongue, as represented in <Figure 15-a>. Also, the primary school enrollment rate among

the 6 year-olds who speak Nepali as their mother tongue is 63.5%, while the percentage is 48.3%

among those who speak Maitili, 39.7% among those who speak Bhojpuri, and 40.9% among

those who speak Tharu, as represented in <Figure 15-b>. In addition, the multivariate analysis in

<Figure 11-a> shows that a 6-year old who speaks Bhojpuri as his or her mother tongue (which

constitutes 18.0% of the 6 year-olds) is 57.4% less likely to be enrolled in primary school,

compared to a child who speaks Nepali, controlling for the 8 other variables. However, the other

languages did not have a statistically significant correlation with the chances of a 6 year-old child

being enrolled in primary school.23

This suggests that language itself is not a significant barrier

to age-appropriate entry into primary school, although it may be correlated with other barriers.

C. Conditional cash transfers to the poorest quintile


According to studies on school enrollment patterns in developing countries by Glewwe

23

Even when all 27 languages spoken as a mother tongue by the 6 year-olds were included in the multivariate

analysis, only Bhojpuri had a statistically significant and negative correlation.

16

and Jacoby (1992, 1995), children from poor families are more likely to enter late into primary

school, attend school irregularly, and drop out of school early. Using data from the Ghana Living

Standards Survey, they found that poorer households were more likely to delay their children’s

school enrollment for longer periods, controlling for many other variables such as age,

nutritional status, parents’ education, number of siblings, distance to school, school facilities,

school fees, etc. One explanation they offered was that poor families have less resources to invest

in their children’s education, and even though this investment would be profitable in the future,

they face borrowing constraints to finance their children’s education (in other words, they are not

able to borrow against their children’s future earnings). Consequently, poorer families take

longer to accumulate enough savings to send their children to school, delaying their enrollment.

Bommier and Lambert (2000)’s research using data from the Tanzania Human Resource

Development Survey also support the claim that children from poor households are likely to

enroll later in school.

Assuming that a borrowing constraint is a barrier to age-appropriate enrollment among

poor families, conditional cash transfers could be an effective solution. In Mexico, a conditional

cash transfer program called Oportunidades (formerly called PROGRESA) began in 1997 to

improve education and health outcomes among poor families (Behrman, Parker, & Todd, 2009).

Beneficiaries of this program were given bimonthly cash transfers and young children were

given nutritional supplements, with the condition that all family members should regularly visit

health clinics, while all school-aged children should regularly attend school. (The educational

grants were given to children from the third grade of primary school to the third grade of high

school.) A study by Bando, Lopez-Calva and Patrinos (2005) found that this program resulted in

improved educational outcomes among the beneficiaries, including reduced repetition, dropout,

17

and child labor rates, as well as increased school attendance. Behrman et al. (2009) also found

that this program had a statistically significant impact on reducing the beneficiaries’ age at entry

into primary school. It is not clear whether the nutritional supplements for young children made

them more developmentally ready to enter school earlier, or whether families were enrolling

their children in school earlier in anticipation of the education grants made available to students

from grade 3. Nevertheless, this example shows that a well-designed conditional cash transfer

program to poor families may be able to increase poor children’s age-appropriate entry into

primary school.

2. Context in Nepal

In Nepal, only 51.6% of 6 year-olds from the poorest consumption quintile (a proxy for

wealth) are enrolled in primary school, while the percentage among the richest quintile is 63.7%,

as represented in <Figure 16-a>. Also, the multivariate analysis in <Figure 11-a> shows that a 6

year-old in the poorest quintile is 46.0% less likely to be enrolled in primary school, compared to

a child in the richest quintile, controlling for the 8 other variables. This is in line with the

findings by Glewwe and Jacoby (1995) and Bommier and Lambert (2000) that children from

poor households are likely to enroll later in school. Thus, cash transfers to the poorest quintile in

Nepal (which constitutes 33.4% of children aged 6, as shown in <Figure 16-b>24

), with a

condition that a child enrolls in primary school on time, may increase their on-time entry into

primary school.

Currently in Nepal, the Ministry of Education is administering several cash transfer

programs in the form of scholarships. According to a report by Acharya (2007), there are

24

Poor families have more children, which is why more than 20% of children are in the poorest consumption

quintile. (Consumption quintiles are based on household consumption, not individual consumption.)

18

scholarships for poor students (targeting half of the poor students in primary schools, $3.50 per

student per year), scholarships for girls (targeting half of the girls aged 6-10 attending primary

school, $3.50 per student per year), and scholarships for Dalits (targeting all Dalits in primary

school, $3.50 per student per year). However, Pandy and Josh (2014) claim that the educational

impacts of these cash transfer programs have been modest, due to several reasons. First, the

scholarships are not conditional on school attendance or educational achievement, so some

students stop attending school after collecting the scholarship. Second, even though public

primary schools are free, the amount of the scholarships (mostly ranging from $3.50 to $5.00 per

student per year) is not adequate to cover the opportunity costs and indirect costs (for uniforms,

school supplies, transportation, etc.) of attending school. Third, many of the scholarships target

demographic categories instead of the poor, so those who need it the most may not be eligible.

Lastly, there are substantial leakages during the disbursement of funds, because the scholarships

are delivered in cash to the schools, and nearly all record-keepings are done manually. This

suggests that there will be some realistic challenges to implementing conditional cash transfers to

poor families to increase children’s on-time entry into primary schools.

D. Early Childhood Development programs for all children


Many studies have shown that Early Childhood Development (ECD)25

programs can

provide a strong foundation for achieving other basic education goals. For example, a study on

eight states in India found that the survival rate to fourth grade was around 50% among those

who had no ECD experience, while it was almost 70% among those who had ECD experience

25

In this paper, the term Early Childhood Development (ECD) also refers to Early Childhood Education (ECE),

Early Childhood Care and Education (ECCE), Early Childhood Care and Development (ECCD), and pre-primary

education.

19

(Chaturvedi, Srivastava, Singh, & Prasad, 1987). In addition, a study by Arnold, Bartlett, Gowani

and Merali (2007) concluded that children who participate in ECD programs have lower dropout

and repetition rates, as well as higher educational achievement later in their life. This study also

found that the benefits of ECD programs are greater for disadvantaged children, since it

compensates for the unsupportive environment they have at home.

There are also studies that show that ECD programs can increase a child’s readiness for

primary schools. For example, Arnold et al. (2007) explain that well-designed ECD programs

can ease the transition of young children into primary schools by supporting their development in

five domains: physical well-being and motor development (health, growth, disabilities, etc.);

social and emotional development (ability to control one’s own behavior, ability to play and

work with other children); approaches to learning (enthusiasm, curiosity, persistence,

temperament, etc.); language development (vocabulary, grammar, ability to learn and

communicate); and cognition and general knowledge (learning to observe, noting similarities and

differences, etc.). They found that children who attended ECD programs in India and Guatemala

were more likely to enter primary schools at the appropriate age, and less likely to repeat a grade

(the other cause of overage students in schools). In Mozambique, a randomized impact

evaluation found that children who attended ECD programs were 10.2 percentage points more

likely to enroll in primary school at the right age, compared to a control group (Berman, 2013).

These results suggest that ECD programs could be an effective policy intervention to increase

age-appropriate entry into primary schools.

2. Context in Nepal

<Figure 12> shows that when families of out-of-school 6 year-old children were asked

20

why their child was not enrolled in school in the NLSS III survey, 55% responded that “the child

was too young”, even though they had passed the legal age of enrollment (age 5). Although it is

difficult to tell what the parents meant by the child being too young, it is unlikely that they were

unaware of the legal age of enrollment in primary schools, considering the government launches

nation-wide “Welcome to School” campaigns every year. Instead, they may have been referring

to the fact that their child was not cognitively, physically, socially, and emotionally developed

enough to attend school. If this is true, a well-designed and holistic ECD program can be very

effective in helping the transition of young children into primary schools. In fact, a recent study

on the impact of ECD services on children’s school readiness in Nepal (Sharma & Shrestha,

2012) found that children in grade 1 who had ECD experience were more developed in several

dimensions, compared to those without ECD experience. Cognitively, children with ECD

experience had basic skills in literacy and numeracy, and could communicate with teachers and

peers in their mother tongue and/or Nepali. Socially, they easily mingled with peers, and actively

participated in school activities. Emotionally, they were comfortable asking and answering

questions, and interacted well with adults and peers.

According to official data from the Ministry of Education (2013), there are 34,174 ECD

centers in the country (85.7% are public, including school-based and community-based centers,

and 14.3% are private), while the GER for ECD programs is 73.7%,26

Based on NLSS III data,

among 5 and 6 year-olds who were newly enrolled in grade 1, 71.4% had ECD experience in the

previous year, as represented in <Figure 17-a>. Also, among the 6 year-olds who had ECD

experience in the previous year, 62.2% were enrolled in primary school in the year of the survey;

while among the 6 year-olds who did not have ECD experience in the previous year, only 35.1%

26

The denominator is the population of children aged 3-4.

21

were enrolled in primary school in the year of the survey, as shown in <Figure 17-b>.27

In

addition, when ECD experience was included as a variable in the multivariate analysis in

<Figure 18>, a 6 year-old child who had ECD experience in the previous year was 3.737 times

more likely to be enrolled in primary school, compared to a child without ECD experience,

controlling for the 9 other variables.28

These results suggest that ECD programs can

significantly increase age-appropriate entry into primary schools in Nepal.

IV. Evaluation of policy options 29

A. Effectiveness

This indicator measures how effective the policy will be in increasing on-time entry into

primary schools. The results of the multivariate analyses (using NLSS III data) can be used to

predict the effectiveness of each policy option, because it shows how strong each variable is

correlated with the chances of a child being enrolled in primary school at age 6. Since distance to

school did not have a statistically significant correlation, building feeder schools will not be very

effective in increasing on-time entry into primary schools (1 point). As for mother tongue, only 1

language (which is spoken by 18.0% of the 6 year-olds) had a negative correlation with the

chances of a child entering primary school on time. Therefore, offering multilingual education to

children who do not speak Nepali as their mother tongue may not significantly increase the

number of children who enter primary schools on time (2 points). On the other hand, being in the

poorest quintile (which constitutes 33.4% of children aged 6) decreased the chances of a child

27

This result must be interpreted with caution, because information on a child’s educational experience in the

previous year was missing for 16.0% of the sample. 28

Again, this result must be interpreted with caution, because information on a child’s educational experience in the

previous year was missing for 16.0% of the sample. 29

Each criterion is measured on a scale of 1 to 5. A matrix of each policy option and the points for each criterion is

summarized in <Appendix 2> on pg. 54.

22

entering primary school on time by 46.0%. Thus, offering cash transfers to children in the

poorest quintile, with the condition that they enter primary school on time, may be effective in

increasing their on-time entry into primary schools (3 points). Lastly, prior ECD experience

increased the chances of a child entering primary school on time by 3.737 times. Therefore,

among these four policy options, ECD programs may be the most effective in increasing age-

appropriate entry into primary schools (5 points).

B. Cost 30

The cost of establishing feeder schools will be very high, because in addition to building

the physical infrastructure of schools, extra teachers will have to be trained and deployed to the

new schools, and the facilities will have to be maintained regularly. Among all of the policy

options, this will have the highest costs (1 point). The conditional cash transfer program will also

be costly, because the transfer amount for each student will need to be high enough to offset the

indirect and opportunity costs of a poor child attending school. In addition, the program will

require additional staff to disburse the funds and to check if students are meeting the conditions

(2 points). The costs of expanding ECD programs to all children will also be high. Considering

the GER for ECD programs is 73.7% (MoE, 2013), the current program capacity needs to be

increased to accommodate all 3 to 4 year-olds in the ECD centers. Also, more funding is required

to ensure high-quality ECD services in all existing centers. In addition, some components need to

be added or strengthened to better support the transition of children into primary schools at the

appropriate age, which will be explained in more detail later (2 points). Lastly, for multilingual

education, the initial costs of training teachers and developing textbooks for each language will

30

Lower cost receives higher points.

23

be high. However, once the program is established and integrated into the existing teacher

training program, the costs of continuing the program will decrease substantially (4 points).

C. Targeting

This indicator measures whether the policy option specifically targets the demographic

group that is facing barriers to on-time entry into primary school, which indicates how efficiently

the resources will be used for addressing the problem. Feeder schools target children who live far

away from schools. However, since distance to school is not a significant barrier to on-time entry

into primary schools, this policy option is inherently weak in targeting (1 point). As for

multilingual education, among the children whose mother tongue is not Nepali, only 31.3%

speak a language that decreases their chances of entering primary school on time.31

Therefore,

multilingual education does not specifically target those who are facing barriers to on-time entry

into primary school (2 points). Expanding ECD programs will benefit all children, not just those

who are facing barriers to on-time entry into primary school, so this policy option also does not

specifically target those who are facing barriers to on-time entry into primary school.

Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning that the benefits will be greater for disadvantaged children

(2 points). Conditional cash transfers to the poorest consumption quintile specifically targets

poor children, a group that has low chances of entering primary school on time, so this option is

the best in terms of targeting (5 points).

D. Political feasibility 32

Assuming that politicians’ support for a policy will be proportional to the number of

31

Calculated using NLSS III data. 32

The statistics in this section were calculated with NLSS III data.

24

voters (citizens aged 18 and above) that support the policy, and that voters will support policies

that directly benefit their demographic group, the political feasibility of a policy option can be

measured by the size of the demographic group (within the voting population) that will benefit

from the policy. Since most people live close to a primary school, in order to increase the number

of people who benefit from the feeder schools, these schools would need to be built extremely

close to people’s homes. However, even if feeder schools were built for all families that live 3

km or more from a primary school, still only 6.8% of the voting population would benefit from

this policy (1 point). As for conditional cash transfers, 20.1% of the voting population are in the

poorest quintile, so this policy would be supported by one-fifth of the voting population (2

points). Regarding multilingual education, 50.0% of the voting population do not speak Nepali as

their mother tongue, so this policy would be supported by one-half of the voting population (3

points). Lastly, expanding ECD programs will benefit all children, not just a particular

demographic group, so this policy would be supported by all of the voting population (5 points).

V. Policy recommendation – ECD programs for all children

A. Trade-offs

Among the four policy options considered in section above, expanding ECD programs to

all children would be the best alternative for increasing on-time entry into primary schools. It

scores the highest on effectiveness, as evidenced by the results of the multivariate analysis. It is

also the most politically feasible option, since it benefits all children, instead of a particular

demographic group.

However, because of this last point, this policy option does not score high on targeting

the children who are facing barriers to on-time entry into primary school, which decreases the

25

efficient use of resources for addressing this policy problem. Also, this option is costly, because

the current program capacity needs to be expanded, more funding is required to ensure high-

quality ECD services in all existing centers, and some components need to be added or

strengthened. Nevertheless, ECD programs contribute to other long-term and significant

educational, health, and economic outcomes for the individual child as well as the society at

large, which justifies the high costs of this policy option. In fact, ECD is being recognized as one

of the most cost-effective investments that a country can make in the long term (Denboba et al.,

2014).

B. Current ECD policy

ECD is not included in the basic education structure, and a child is not required to have

ECD experience before enrolling in grade 1. Nevertheless, according to Kadel and Mahat (2011),

ECD programs in Nepal have expanded rapidly since 2000, the year the international community

adopted the Dakar Framework for Action to reconfirm its commitment to the EFA goals, the first

of which concerns the expansion and improvement of comprehensive ECD programs, especially

for the most vulnerable and disadvantaged children. In 2003, the Nepal Ministry of Education

developed the EFA National Plan of Action to support the achievement of the EFA goals, aiming

to establish at least one ECD center in each ward,33

as well as support a holistic approach to

ECD programs that integrates education, health, nutrition, and sanitation services. In 2004, the

Department of Education developed the Strategy Paper for ECD in Nepal, reconfirming the

government’s commitment to expand ECD programs, especially targeting vulnerable and

disadvantaged children, and to support children’s holistic development. In 2009, the Ministry of

33

The lowest administrative division of Nepal.

26

Education developed the School Sector Reform Plan which includes a section on ECD programs.

The extension of this plan, developed in 2014, specifically mentions that the goal of ECD

programs is to “foster children’s all-round development, laying a firm foundation for basic

education (MoE, 2014).” Although there are gaps between these national policies and

implementation on the ground, at least in principle, these policies can be very effective in

supporting children’s transition into primary school at the appropriate age.

Enrollment in the ECD centers takes place at the beginning of every school year, and

each center can enroll 25 to 30 children. These children can stay in the ECD centers for a

maximum of two years. The ECD facilitators are selected from the local community, and they

facilitate the classes in the local language. In terms of funding, the Ministry of Education

allocates approximately $420 to each ECD center, per year, to remunerate the ECD facilitator

and cover other managerial costs. However, any additional costs are expected to be mobilized by

communities and parents, resulting in varying qualities of ECD services depending on the wealth

of the community (S. L. Bhusal, personal communication, January 14, 2015).

The following section provides some recommendations on improving the current ECD

program to better support the transition of children into primary school at the appropriate age.

C. Recommendations to improve current ECD programs

1. Support children’s holistic development

ECD programs will be most effective in supporting the transition of young children into

primary school if it develops the child holistically - cognitively, physically, socially, and

emotionally. Although the principle of holistic development is included in Nepal’s ECD policies,

in practice, there are areas for improvement. Most importantly, nutrition and health components

27

are missing from most public ECD programs, with the exception of ECD centers that are

supported by UN agencies and international NGOs (Kadel & Mahat, 2011). Poor nutrition and

health among young children can lead to impaired cognitive ability and reduced performance in

school and work later in life, which is why it is very important to strengthen the nutrition and

health component in the ECD programs. For example, ECD centers can provide midday meals,

micronutrient powder (MNP) supplements, regular health check-ups, growth monitoring, and

deworming services.

In addition, there needs to be more coordination among the concerned ministries at

various levels of government. At the national level, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of

Health and Population, the Ministry of Women, Children and Social Welfare, and the Ministry of

Local Development should collaborate to ensure that their policies support a coherent and

holistic ECD policy. The recent establishment of the National ECD Steering Committee, chaired

by the vice-chair of the National Planning Committee, is a promising step towards inter-sectoral

collaboration. Coordination at lower administrative levels is also very important, since the

delivery of health and educational services in Nepal is decentralized. At the District level, ECD

Committees have already been established in all Districts to develop and implement inter-

sectoral ECD plans (Kadel & Mahat, 2011). This committee includes officers from the District

Development Committee, District Education Office, District Public Health Office, District

Women Development Office, and other civil society organizations. However, field studies have

revealed that many District ECD Committees lack the capacity to develop holistic ECD plans,

few district-level officers are active in the District ECD Committee (except the District

Education Officers), and many officers are unwilling to take on work related to ECD programs in

the absence of directives from their central ministry. Therefore, the above-mentioned ministries

28

need to collaborate to develop the capacity of their District-level officers to formulate holistic

ECD plans,34

as well as provide operational guidelines on supporting inter-sectoral ECD

programs at the District-level.

2. Engage parents

It is very important to engage parents in ECD programs, because they play a critical role

in supporting the holistic development of children. For example, better feeding practices at home

will improve the physical development of children, reading them books and teaching them

nursery rhymes at home can improve their cognitive development, letting them play regularly

with their peers can develop them socially, and establishing a warm and interactive relationship

with them will support their emotional development (Sylva, Melhuish, Sammons, Siraj-

Blatchford, & Taggart, 2004). These attitudes and practices can be promoted among parents by

engaging them in parental education classes at ECD centers. Unfortunately, many ECD programs

in Nepal do not have a parental engagement component, even though Nepal’s ECD policies

highlight the importance of parental engagement (Kadel & Mahat, 2011).

In some ECD centers supported by UNICEF, regular parental orientation classes have

been provided on topics such as children’s education, health, nutrition, gender equity, pre-natal

and post-natal care. A study found that parents that had participated in such parental education

classes had better practices that supported children’s physical, social, and emotional development,

compared to parents without such exposure (UNICEF & CERID, 2009). Such initiatives need to

be expanded to other ECD centers in order to maximize the impact of ECD programs on

children’s holistic development and their timely transition into primary schools.

34

UNICEF Nepal has been supporting this in 15 Districts.

29

Parental engagement is also very important because they are the ones who decide when

their child will enter primary school, and how long they will attend school. The parental

education classes mentioned above are good opportunities to inform parents about the

educational, health, and economic returns of education, as well as the importance of transitioning

to primary school on time.

3. Attract children to ECD programs at the appropriate age

It is very important to attract children to ECD programs at the appropriate age, because

late entry into ECD programs can lead to late entry into primary schools. Currently, 44.1% of

children enrolled in ECD centers are aged 6 and above, as shown in <Figure 7-a>, although the

appropriate age for enrollment in ECD programs is 3 and 4.

Although some may argue that parents who are reluctant to enroll their children in

primary school on time will also be reluctant to enroll their children in ECD programs on time, it

could be easier to convince parents to enroll their children in ECD programs by focusing

advocacy on the following points. First, the opportunity costs for attending school is lower for 3

to 4 year-olds, compared to 5 year-olds, since young children are able to contribute less to

household chores and other economic activities at home. Second, ECD programs focus on the

holistic development of the child, instead of just academic achievement, so parents can be less

concerned about whether their child is developmentally ready to attend ECD programs. In fact,

the holistic nature of ECD programs will help make children ready to attend formal schools.

Third, as already proven by studies in Nepal and around the world, ECD programs will bring

long-term benefits in education, health, and life-time earnings for children and their families.

According to a study by Heckman (2008), a Nobel laureate in economics, the rate-of-return for

30

investment in ECD programs is even higher than the rate-of-return for primary education.

The national “Welcome to School” campaigns that the government launches annually

can be a good opportunity to advocate these messages to parents, encouraging them to enroll

their children in ECD programs at the appropriate age.

4. Promote transition to primary school

Related to the point above, ECD programs should promote children’s transition into

primary school at the appropriate age. To do this, ECD centers can arrange visits for children, as

well as their parents, to a primary school during the last few months of the ECD program, or

grade 1 teachers can visit ECD centers to meet with children and their parents. These exchanges

will familiarize children and their parents with the primary school environment, making the

transition easier. These exchanges can also be facilitated by designating a nearby primary school

as a “partner school” for the ECD center.

Some countries, including Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Vietnam, have gone even further to

ease the transition of children into primary schools by administratively integrating the ECD

system into the primary education system (UNESCO, 2006). Such structural integration can

create a more coherent system of policy, administration, and monitoring. Other countries, such as

Jamaica and Guyana, have an integrated curriculum for ECD programs and primary schools,

using similar teaching methods and learning material, making the transition easier for children.

In Nepal, the Child-Friendly Schools Initiative (CFSI), which is currently being rolled-out

nationally, shares many overlapping principles with ECD programs, since both aim to provide

holistic support to children in schools (Nepal Ministry of Education, 2011). Therefore, increasing

the coordination between these two policies can ensure continuity in a child’s experience in

31

school, making the transition to primary schools easier.

VI. Summary and conclusion

In Nepal, 68.1% of students in grades 1-12 are overage for their grade by 2 years or

more. This problem is first caused by the high proportion of late entry into primary school, and it

is exacerbated by high repetition rates A high proportion of overage students in school is a

serious problem, because it can have negative consequences at the individual, classroom, and

national level. Also, it highlights a problem of educational equity in Nepal, because there are

statistically significant correlations between the profile of a child aged 5-16 (the appropriate age

range for attending primary and secondary schools) and their chances of being overage for their

grade.

This paper presents four policy options to address the initial cause of the problem, late

entry into primary schools. The policy options are 1) building feeder schools in remote areas to

shorten the distance to schools, 2) providing multilingual education to children whose mother

tongue is not Nepali, 3) providing cash transfers to children in the poorest consumption quintile,

with the condition that they enroll in primary school on time, and 4) expanding ECD programs to

all children. These policy options were evaluated on the criteria of 1) effectiveness in increasing

on-time entry into primary schools, 2) cost of implementing the policy, 3) specific targeting of

the demographic group that is facing barriers to on-time entry into primary school, and 4)

political feasibility, measured by the size of the demographic group that will benefit from the

policy. Based on these criteria, expanding ECD programs to all children was found to be the best

policy option for increasing on-time entry into primary schools. Although this policy does not

score high on cost and targeting, these shortcomings are justified by the other significant and

32

long-term benefits in education, health, and life-time earnings to individuals and the society.

The current ECD program in Nepal can better support the transition of children into

primary school at the appropriate age by following several recommendations. First, the ECD

programs should support the holistic development of children, so they are cognitively, physically,

socially, and emotionally ready to attend primary school. To achieve this, there needs to be more

coordination among the concerned ministries at various levels of government. Second, parents

need to be engaged in the ECD programs, because they play a critical role in supporting the

holistic development of children, and they also decide when their child will transition to primary

school. Parental education classes at ECD centers can be a good way to increase parental

engagement. Third, it is important to attract children to ECD programs at the appropriate age,

because late entry into ECD programs can lead to late entry into primary schools. The national

“Welcome to School” campaigns that the government launches annually can be a good

opportunity to advocate key messages to parents on the benefits of enrolling their children in

ECD programs on time. Lastly, ECD programs should promote children’s transition into primary

school by familiarizing children and their parents with the primary school environment.

Coordinating the policies for ECD programs and primary education can also make the transition

easier for children.

Through the recommendations above, expanding ECD programs to all children can

significantly increase the number of children who enter primary school on time, which will

decrease the number of overage students in primary and secondary schools in Nepal.

33

APPENDIX 1: Figures

< Figure 1 > Appropriate age for enrollment in each grade

Source: Pherali, T., Smith, A., & Vaux, T. (2011). Political Economy Analysis of Education in Nepal. Kathmandu:

European Union.

< Figure 2 > NER in primary school

Source: Government of Nepal (GoN) & United Nations Country Team (UNCT) of Nepal. (2013). Nepal

Millennium Development Goals: Progress Report 2013. Kathmandu: Government of Nepal.

34

< Figure 3-a > NER and GER in different levels of school (MoE, 2013)

Source: Graph made with data from Nepal Ministry of Education (MoE). (2013). School Level

Educational Statistics of Nepal: Flash Report 2069 (2012-13). Kathmandu: Government of Nepal.

< Figure 3-b > NER and GER in different levels of school (NLSS, 2011)

Source: Graph made with data from Nepal Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). (2011). Nepal Living

Standards Survey 2010-2011. Kathmandu: Government of Nepal.

35

< Figure 4-a > Promotion, repetition, and dropout rates

Source: Nepal Ministry of Education (MoE). (2013). School Level Educational Statistics of Nepal:

Flash Report 2069 (2012-13). Kathmandu: Government of Nepal.

< Figure 4-b > Promotion and repetition rates of students enrolled in school

for 2 consecutive years (MoE, 2013)

Source: Author’s calculations with data from Nepal Ministry of Education (MoE). (2013). School Level

Educational Statistics of Nepal: Flash Report 2069 (2012-13). Kathmandu: Government of Nepal.

36

< Figure 4-c > Promotion and repetition rates of students enrolled in school

for 2 consecutive years (NLSS, 2011)

Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III

Sample: All students in survey who were enrolled in grades 1-8 in the year before the survey and were

also enrolled in school during the year of the survey

Number of observations: 5,983 (weighted by individual sample weights)

37

< Figure 5-a > School enrollment - by age

< Figure 5-b > Level of school enrolled in - by age


Sample: All children aged 5-16 in survey


38

< Figure 6-a > Grade enrolled in - by age

< Figure 6-b > Children aged 5-16 who are over/underage in their grade

* Note: Blue signifies the child is appropriate-age for the grade (including 1 year overage), green signifies the child

is underage for the grade, and red signifies the child is overage for the grade (by 2 years or more).




39

< Figure 7–a > Age of students - by grade

< Figure 7–b > Students in grade 1-12 who are over/underage in their grade




Sample: All students enrolled in grades 1-12 in survey


40

< Figure 7-c > Age of new entrants in grade 1




Sample: All students in survey newly enrolled in grade 1

Number of observations: 898 (weighted by individual sample weights)

< Figure 8 > Proportion of overage students in primary school – South Asia

Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics. Overage students in primary schools. In UIS Stat. Retrieved from

http://data.uis.unesco.org/ (accessed October 22, 2014).

http://data.uis.unesco.org/

41

< Figure 9-a > Multivariate analysis of profile of children aged 5-16

and their chances of being in age-appropriate grade (including 1 grade below)

Increased odds

of being in age-

appropriate

grade

Odds

ratio =

Exp(B)

Logit

coefficient

= B

df Sig.

Gender

Female (compared to Male) 13.9% 1.139 .130 1 .013

Caste/Ethnicity 2 .000

Low caste (compared to High caste) -44.6% .554 -.591 1 .000

Middle caste (compared to High caste) -38.1% .619 -.480 1 .000

Religion 3 .017

Muslim (compared to Hindu) -41.9% .581 -.542 1 .002

Buddhist (compared to Hindu) 7.6% 1.076 .073 1 .544

Other religion (compared to Hindu) 7.5% 1.075 .072 1 .597

Language 4 .000

Maitili language (compared to Nepali) -38.6% .614 -.488 1 .000

Bhojpuri language (compared to Nepali) -42.0% .580 -.544 1 .000

Tharu language (compared to Nepali) 14.9% 1.149 .138 1 .322

Other language (compared to Nepali) -26.9% .731 -.314 1 .000

Disability

Any disability (compared to No disability) -29.9% .701 -.356 1 .115

Consumption quintile (Wealth) -100.0% 4 .000

Consumption quintile 1 (compared to richest quintile) -64.0% .360 -1.022 1 .000

Consumption quintile 2 (compared to richest quintile) -57.4% .426 -.853 1 .000



Urban

Rural (compared to Urban) -26.7% .733 -.310 1 .000

Development region 4 .000

Far Western region (compared to Western) -31.8% .682 -.383 1 .000

Mid Western region (compared to Western) -32.4% .676 -.391 1 .000

Central region (compared to Western) -10.5% .895 -.110 1 .175

Eastern region (compared to Western) -12.1% .879 -.129 1 .147

Ecological Belt 2 .720

Mountain (compared to Hill) -7.6% .924 -.079 1 .436

Plains (compared to Hill) -2.7% .973 -.027 1 .704

Age -22.6% .774 -.257 1 .000

Constant 34.724 3.547 1 .000

42

< Figure 9-b > Effect of variables on the chances of a child aged 5-16

being in age-appropriate grade (including 1 grade below),

controlling for other variables


Sample: All children aged 5-16 in survey, excluding out-of-school children and children underage for their grade

Number of observations: 7,652

Model chi-square: 1,478.717 (df = 23, p = 0.000)

-2 log likelihood: 8,679.447

Nagelkerke R square: 0.239

p < 0.01

p < 0.05

43

< Figure 10 > Multivariate analysis of profile of children

and increased chances of being in age-appropriate grade and in-school

Being in

school 1

Being in age-

appropriate

grade 2

Gender

Female (compared to Male) -24.2% 13.9%

Caste/Ethnicity

Low caste (compared to High caste) -63.1% -44.6%

Middle caste (compared to High caste) -53.4% -38.1%

Religion

Muslim (compared to Hindu) -41.5% -41.9%

Buddhist (compared to Hindu) 17.5% 7.6%

Other religion (compared to Hindu) -3.0% 7.5%

Language

Maitili language (compared to Nepali) -60.9% -38.6%

Bhojpuri language (compared to Nepali) -51.7% -42.0%

Tharu language (compared to Nepali) 60.5% 14.9%

Other language (compared to Nepali) -45.1% -26.9%

Disability

Any disability (compared to No disability) -77.2% -29.9%

Consumption quintile (Wealth) -100.0%

Consumption quintile 1 (compared to richest quintile) -83.7% -64.0%




Urban

Rural (compared to Urban) 18.8% -26.7%

Development region

Far Western region (compared to Western) 24.0% -31.8%

Mid Western region (compared to Western) -21.1% -32.4%

Central region (compared to Western) -42.2% -10.5%

Eastern region (compared to Western) 29.6% -12.1%

Ecological Belt

Mountain (compared to Hill) 23.6% -7.6%

Plains (compared to Hill) -20.1% -2.7%

Age -8.0% -22.6%

44

1) Analysis for being in school



Model chi-square: 849.442 (df = 23, p = 0.000)



2) Analysis for being in age-appropriate grade (including 1 grade below)

Sample: All children aged 5-16 in survey, excluding out-of-school children and children underage for

grade


Model chi-square: 1,478.717 (df = 23, p = 0.000)



* All analyses Source: Author’s calculations using raw data from Nepal Living Standards Survey III

p < 0.01

p < 0.05

45

< Figure 11-a > Multivariate analysis of profile of children aged 6

and their chances of being enrolled in primary school

Increased

odds of being

enrolled in

primary

school

Odds

ratio =

Exp(B)

Logit

coefficie

nt = B

df Sig.

Gender


Caste 2 .409

Low caste (compared to High caste) 24.5% 1.245 .219 1 .391

Middle caste (compared to High caste) 36.7% 1.367 .313 1 .188

Religion 3 .956

Muslim (compared to Hindu) 10.4% 1.104 .099 1 .821

Buddhist (compared to Hindu) -15.7% .843 -.170 1 .652

Other religion (compared to Hindu) -14.7% .853 -.159 1 .709

Language 4 .162



Tharu language (compared to Nepali) -31.3% .687 -.376 1 .371


Disability

Any disability (compared to No disability) -63.7% .363 -1.013 1 .098

Wealth 4 .203





Urban

Rural (compared to Urban) 43.9% 1.439 .364 1 .091


Far Western (compared to Eastern) -22.3% .777 -.252 1 .465

Mid Western region (compared to Eastern) -27.7% .723 -.324 1 .270

Western region (compared to Eastern) -15.2% .848 -.164 1 .562

Central region (compared to Eastern) -26.4% .736 -.306 1 .217


Hill (compared to Mountain) -37.5% .625 -.471 1 .162

Plains (compared to Mountain) -62.0% .380 -.968 1 .009

Constant 3.297 1.193 1 .008

46

< Figure 11-b > Effect of variables on the chances of a child aged 6

being enrolled in primary school, controlling for other variables


Sample: All children aged 6 in survey (9 missing)

Number of observations: 721


-2 log likelihood: 930.272


p < 0.01

p < 0.05

47

< Figure 12 > Reason for not attending school – age 6


Sample: All children aged 6 in survey not enrolled in school


48

< Figure 13-a > Distance to the closest primary school (age 6)

< Figure 13-b > Travel time to the closest primary school (age 6)


Sample: All children aged 6 in survey (138 missing for in-school, 76 missing for out-of-school)

Number of observations: 275 for in-school (weighted by individual sample weights)

241 for out-of-school (weighted by individual sample weights)

49

< Figure 14 > Multivariate analysis of profile of children aged 6

and their chances of being enrolled in primary school (including distance to primary school)

Increased

odds of being

enrolled in

primary

school

Odds ratio

= Exp(B)

Logit

coefficient

= B

df Sig.

Gender


Caste 2 .203



Religion 3 .962

Muslim (compared to Hindu) -13.0% .870 -.140 1 .805


Other religion (compared to Hindu) -5.9% .941 -.061 1 .906

Language 4 .121


Bhojpuri language (compared to Nepali) -65.0% .350 -1.050 1 .020

Tharu language (compared to Nepali) -43.3% .567 -.568 1 .236


Disability


Wealth 4 .426


Consumption quintile 2 (compared to richest quintile) 53.2% 1.532 .427 1 .281



Urban




Mid Western region (compared to Eastern) -37.3% .627 -.468 1 .145

Western region (compared to Eastern) -23.2% .768 -.264 1 .419




Plains (compared to Mountain) -56.3% .437 -.827 1 .041

Distance to primary school (every 1 km) -7.6% .924 -.079 1 .326

Constant 1.816 .596 1 .266


Sample: All children aged 6 in survey (218 missing)





p < 0.01

p < 0.05

50

< Figure 15-a > Mother tongue of children (aged 6)


Sample: All children aged 6 in survey


< Figure 15-b > Primary school enrollment among children (aged 6) - by mother tongue

Note: Red line represents the percentage of all 6 year-olds enrolled in primary school (55.0%)




51

< Figure 16-a > Primary school enrollment among children (aged 6) - by consumption quintile

Note: Red line represents percentage of all 6 year-olds who are enrolled in primary school (55.0%)




< Figure 16-b > Consumption quintile of children (aged 6)




52

< Figure 17-a > ECD experience among children who entered primary school on time


Sample: All children aged 5and 6 in survey, newly enrolled in grade 1


< Figure 17-b > Primary school enrollment among children (aged 6)

- ECD experience in previous year


Sample: All children aged 6 in survey, not enrolled in primary school in previous year (117 missing)


53

< Figure 18 > Multivariate analysis of profile of children aged 6

and their chances of being enrolled in primary school (including ECD experience)

Increased odds of

being enrolled in

primary school

Odds ratio

= Exp(B)

Logit

coefficie

nt = B

df Sig.

Gender


Caste 2 .081



Religion 3 .610

Muslim (compared to Hindu) 46.6% 1.466 .383 1 .543


Other religion (compared to Hindu) 9.9% 1.099 .095 1 .876

Language 4 .136



Tharu language (compared to Nepali) -74.0% .260 -1.346 1 .016

Other language (compared to Nepali) 12.5% 1.125 .118 1 .737

Disability


Wealth 4 .149





Urban




Mid Western region (compared to Eastern) 37.3% 1.373 .317 1 .439

Western region (compared to Eastern) 4.6% 1.046 .045 1 .907




Plains (compared to Mountain) -63.2% .368 -1.000 1 .044

ECD

ECD experience (compared to no ECD) 273.7% 3.737 1.318 1 .000

Constant .508 -.678 1 .286


Sample: All children aged 6 in survey, not enrolled in primary school in previous year (120 missing)


Model chi-square: 62.113(df = 23, p = 0.000)



p < 0.01

p < 0.05

54

APPENDIX 2: Evaluation of policy options

Effective-

ness

Cost (low cost has

higher points)

Targeting Political

feasibility TOTAL

Feeder

Schools 1 1 1 1 4

Multilingual

Education 2 4 2 3 11

Conditional

cash transfer 3 2 5 2 12

Early

Childhood

Development

5 2 2 5 14

* Note: Each criterion is evaluated on a scale of 1 to 5.

55

APPENDIX 3: Variables used in bivariate and multivariate analyses



1) Gender

- Male (49.4% of sample)

- Female (50.6% of sample)

2) Caste/Ethnicity

- High caste (38.6% of sample): Bangali, Baniya, Brahman, Chhetri, Jain, Kayastha, Marwadi,

Newar, Nurang, Rajpur, Sanyasi, Thakuri

- Middle caste (42.0% of sample): Adibasi/Janajati, Badhae, Barae, Bhediyar/Gaderi, Bhote,

Bing/Binda, Bote, Brahmu/Baramu, Byansi, Chepang/Praja, Chhantal, Danwar, Darai,

Dhanuk, Dhimal, Dura, Gangai, Gharti/Bhujel, Gurung, Haiam/Thakur, Haluwai, Hayu,

Jirel, Kahar, Kalwar, Kamar, Kanu, Kewat, Kisan, Koche, Koiri, Kumal, Kurmi, Kusunda,

Lepcha, Limbu, Lodh, Lohar, Magar, Majhi, Mali, Mallah, Meche, Munda, Pahari,

Patharkata/Kuswadiya, Rai, Rajbansi, Rajbhar, Raji, Raute, Santhal, Sherpa, Sonar, Sudhi,

Sunuwar, Tajpuriya, Tamang, Teli, Thakali, Thami, Tharu, Walung, Yadav, Yakkha, Yehlmo

- Low caste (19.4% of sample): Badi, Bantar, Chamar/Harijan/Ram, Chidimar, Churaute,

Dalit (other), Damain/Dholi, Dhobi, Dom, Dusadh/Parwan/Pasi, Gaine, Halkhor, Kami,

Khatwe, Kumhar, Muhasar, Muslim, Nuniya, Sarki, Tatma

* Note: Based on classification in Pivovarova, M. (2011). Caste, Gender and School

Enrollment: Evidence from the Nepalese Living Standard Survey. Toronto: University of

Toronto.

3) Religion

- Hindu (83.3% of sample)

- Buddhist (7.3% of sample)

- Muslim (4.7% of sample)

- Other religions (4.8% of sample)

4) Language spoken at home

- Nepali (56.6% of sample)

- Maitili (11.3% of sample)

- Bhojpuri (8.4% of sample)

- Tharu (4.9% of sample)

- Other languages (18.8% of sample)

56

5) Disability

- No disability (98.1% of sample)

- Any disability (1.9% of sample): including physical, visual, hearing, speech, and mental

disabilities

6) Consumption quintile: nominal per-capita household consumption (proxy for wealth)

- Consumption quintile 1 (22.3% of sample), poorest quintile

- Consumption quintile 2 (20.9% of sample)



- Consumption quintile 5 (19.4% of sample), richest quintile

7) Urban and Rural

- Urban (27.2% of sample)

- Rural (72.8% of sample)

8) Development region: 5 official development regions of Nepal

- Far-Western region (10.6% of sample)

- Mid-Western region (15.4% of sample)

- Western region (19.4% of sample)

- Central region (32.3% of sample)

- Eastern region (22.3% of sample)

9) Ecological belt: 3 official ecological belts of Nepal

- Mountain (7.8% of sample)

- Hills (47.2% of sample)

- Plains (45.0% of sample)

10) Age

- Age 5 (7.2% of sample)












57

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Documents

Addressing the High Proportion of Overage Students in Nepal