Abrupt Climate Change Look, all I want is something I can
believe in. This shouldnt be a large request. -Neva Chonin, SF
Chronicle March 4, 2007 Part 4: Global Warming Science and why it
doesnt matter.
Slide 2
Who is this man?
Slide 3
Declaration Pro & Con Pragmatic Centrist Global Warming is
a Fact Global Warming is a Fact Laws of Thermodynamics Laws of
Thermodynamics Sustainable, clean, green industries Sustainable,
clean, green industries Peak Oil, Conservation Peak Oil,
Conservation Solar & Nuclear Power Solar & Nuclear Power
Seed Investment in Clean Technology Seed Investment in Clean
Technology Space Exploration Space Exploration Polluters pay!
Polluters pay! Open debate Open debate CO2 is NOT a Pollutant CO2
is NOT a Pollutant Runaway Global Warming Runaway Global Warming
Against Geo-engineering Against Geo-engineering Monetizing Carbon
Credits (Cap & Trade) Monetizing Carbon Credits (Cap &
Trade) Destroying Dairy Cattle Destroying Dairy Cattle Genetically
Modifying Phytoplankton Genetically Modifying Phytoplankton People
pay for pollution People pay for pollution Scientific Censorship
Scientific Censorship
Slide 4
Climatology is Eclectic Science! Astronomy orbital mechanics,
stellar evolution Astronomy orbital mechanics, stellar evolution
Geology Geology Physical Chemistry -Thermodynamics Physical
Chemistry -Thermodynamics Nuclear Physics Stable Isotope Analysis
Nuclear Physics Stable Isotope Analysis Archaeology Archaeology
Marine Biology Marine Biology Dendrochronology Study of Tree Rings
Dendrochronology Study of Tree Rings Biochemistry Biochemistry
Palynolgy Study of Pollen Palynolgy Study of Pollen Paleontology
Paleontology Meteorology Meteorology Vulcanology Study of Volcanoes
Vulcanology Study of Volcanoes Plant Physiology Plant
Physiology
Original Hockey Stick
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/pdf/WG1_TAR-FRONT.PDF
Slide 10
Best Evidence
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Climate_Change_Attribution.png
Slide 11
CO 2 Emitters 2004 (millions tons) US 21.8% 5,800 China 17.8%
4,732 Russia1,529 Japan 1,215 India 1,103 Germany 849 Canada 551
Italy 462 S. Korea 462 France 387 World 26,583
Slide 12
Slide 13
Evidence for AGW Global Temperatures have risen (~1 O C) &
more rapidly than ever recorded Global Temperatures have risen (~1
O C) & more rapidly than ever recorded CO 2 levels have risen
& correlate with Industrial Revolution & Population Growth
CO 2 levels have risen & correlate with Industrial Revolution
& Population Growth Computer Models are predictive Computer
Models are predictive Carbon isotope changes are consistent with
Fossil Fuel combustion Carbon isotope changes are consistent with
Fossil Fuel combustion Most climatologists (& Politicians)
agree Most climatologists (& Politicians) agree
Slide 14
Evidence against AGW Precipitation is not well predicted by the
model Precipitation is not well predicted by the model Biological
processes are not well described Biological processes are not well
described Cloud Interactions parameterized Cloud Interactions
parameterized Oceanic Processes not fully characterized Oceanic
Processes not fully characterized Solar Variations not accounted
for in model Solar Variations not accounted for in model CO 2
Sources and Sinks not completely identified CO 2 Sources and Sinks
not completely identified No quantitative data regarding Human
Involvement No quantitative data regarding Human Involvement
Slide 15
No one can prove that GW wont happen! Taking into account
numerous factors that can affect climate, climatologists can only
say that the observed changes are consistent with (though no proof
for) the estimated range of climate sensitivity to greenhouse
gases. - Jan Schloerer Uni Ulm Biometrie & Med.Dokumentation
D-89070 Ulm, Germany
Slide 16
Contrary to a commonly held perception, our quantitative
knowledge about these emissions is insufficient to satisfy current
scientific and policy needs. Gurney, K., et al. (2007), Research
Needs for Finely Resolved Fossil Carbon Emissions, Eos Trans. AGU,
88(49), 542.
Slide 17
This cooling has already killed hundreds of thousands of
people. If it continues and no strong action is taken, it will
cause world famine, world chaos and world war, and this could all
come about before the year 2000. Lowell Ponte, The Cooling,
1976
Slide 18
Open Kyoto to debate Sixty scientists call on Harper to revisit
the science of global warming. An open letter to Canadian Prime
Minister Stephen Harper: As accredited experts in climate and
related scientific disciplines, we are writing to propose that
balanced, comprehensive public-consultation sessions be held so as
to examine the scientific foundation of the federal government's
climate- change plans. This would be entirely consistent with your
recent commitment to conduct a review of the Kyoto Protocol Special
to the Financial Post Published: Thursday, April 06, 2006
Slide 19
My Issues with the Science 1. Thermodynamic Approach Radiative
Forcing Radiative Forcing Energy Budget Energy Budget Surface
Temperature Assumptions Surface Temperature Assumptions 2. Stable
Isotope Analysis 3. CO 2 Lifetimes
Slide 20
Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 )
Slide 21
In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not
worth the humble reasoning of a single individual. -Galileo
Galilei
Slide 22
CO 2 is Essential for Life! Photosynthesis Requires CO 2 Plants
make sugars by combining atmospheric CO 2 with water, powered by
sunlight Carbohydrates made by plants are fuel for both plant and
animal life CO 2 is result of respiration No CO 2 NO LIFE! No H 2
O, No Sun, No life Not a pollutant at low concentrations Lower CO 2
favors C4 Plants higher CO 2 favors C3 Plants
Slide 23
Copyright 2002 by the National Academy of Sciences Rothman,
Daniel H. (2002) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 99, 4167-4171 CO2
Levels throughout Geological History
Slide 24
3 Million Years of Glacial Cycles National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration Paleoclimatology Program/Department of
Commerce
Slide 25
North America Satellite view 12kya
Slide 26
South America Before & After From Quaternary Environmental
Networks
Slide 27
Biological Pump Brian N. Popp Professor/Associate Department
Chair Dept. of Geology & Geophysics University of Hawaii
Slide 28
Where is the Missing Carbon? Not explained by Physical
Properties of the Ocean Not explained by Physical Properties of the
Ocean Ocean CO 2 is within 30 ppm of the Atmosphere Ocean CO 2 is
within 30 ppm of the Atmosphere Not in the Forests Not in the
Forests Must have gone into the Deep Ocean Must have gone into the
Deep Ocean Where did the new CO 2 come from? Where did the new CO 2
come from?
Slide 29
CO2 Tied up in Ice Age Glaciers Atmosphere 730 Gt Carbon
Atmosphere 730 Gt Carbon Earth Area (km 2 ) 510 E8 (km 2 ) Earth
Area (km 2 ) 510 E8 (km 2 ) Square Meters/ km 2 1,000,000 m 2 / km
2 Square Meters/ km 2 1,000,000 m 2 / km 2 Ice Age Area Net (km 2
)2.0 E8 km 2 Ice Age Area Net (km 2 )2.0 E8 km 2 Average Ice
Thickness 1000 meters Average Ice Thickness 1000 meters Mass Ice
Sheet2 E17 Metric Tons Mass Ice Sheet2 E17 Metric Tons Total Ice
Volume2 E17 m 3 Total Ice Volume2 E17 m 3 CO2 200 ppmv CO2 200 ppmv
Mass Carbon in CO212/44 Mass Carbon in CO212/44 Total Carbon in
Glaciers550,000 GT Total Carbon in Glaciers550,000 GT Minimum Time
to form Glacier3,618 yrs (152 GT/year) Minimum Time to form
Glacier3,618 yrs (152 GT/year)
Precipitation & Carbon Turnover Atmosphere Carbon 730 Gt
Atmosphere Carbon 730 Gt Earth Area (km 2 ) 510 E8 (km 2 ) Earth
Area (km 2 ) 510 E8 (km 2 ) Square Meters/ km 2 1,000,000 Square
Meters/ km 2 1,000,000 Average Precipitation/yr 80 cm/Yr Average
Precipitation/yr 80 cm/Yr Total 4 E14 cm 3 /yr Total 4 E14 cm 3 /yr
CO2 380 ppmv CO2 380 ppmv Mass CO2/ Mass Carbon155 Gt/42 Gt Mass
CO2/ Mass Carbon155 Gt/42 Gt Residence Time (730/42)17.4 yrs
Residence Time (730/42)17.4 yrs Half Life (*ln2)12.0 yrs Half Life
(*ln2)12.0 yrs % Increase39% % Increase39%
Slide 33
Carbon - Sources and Sinks Atmospheric Increase Gt= Fossil Fuel
Emissions Land Use Net Oceanic Uptake Missing Carbon Sink
3.2(+/-0.2)=6.3(+/-0.4)2.2(+/-0.8) (-1.7 +/-0.8) -2.4(+/-0.7) (-1.4
+/-0.8) -TAR -2.9(+/-1.1) Richard Houghton, Senior Scientist,
Carbon Research Woods Hole Research
Slide 34
Global Bank of CO2 What if? Banks Net Worth Increase
$Billion=DepositsInvest-mentIncomeExpenseTotalRobbery??? $3.2
Billion (+/-0.2)= $6.3 Billion $2.2Billion-$2.4Billion -$2.9 Bn
(+/-1.1) What if your Banker showed you these numbers?
Slide 35
14 Carbon in Atmosphere life ~ 12 years Discussion: Reporting
and calibration of post-bomb 14C data P. J. Reimer, T. A. Brown, R.
W. Reimer October 12, 2004
Slide 36
Calculation of Atmospheric CO 2 Current CO 2 380 ppm 1850 CO 2
280 ppm Life 12 years Man-made CO23.2 GT/year Total for 12
Years38.4 GT Total (Lim =2 x Peak)77 GT Total CO 2 present730 GT
(Change 1ppm1.9 Gt) Total CO 2 1850538 GT Difference192 GT Ratio
(Anthropogenic)0.40 (40%) Best Data0.15 (15%) Atmospheric lifetime
5 to 200 yr No single lifetime can be defined for CO 2 because of
the different rates of uptake by different removal processes.
IPCC-2001
Slide 37
Effective atmospheric CO 2 lifetime The effective lifetime for
CO 2 in the atmosphere, can be determined by the help of
radioactive, radiogenic, and stable isotopes. All measurements with
different methods show short effective lifetimes for atmospheric CO
2, only ca. 5 - 6 years. Sundquist (1985); Segalstad (1998)
Slide 38
My Issues with the Science 1. Thermodynamic Approach Radiative
Forcing Radiative Forcing Energy Budget Energy Budget Surface
Temperature Assumptions Surface Temperature Assumptions 2. Stable
Isotope Analysis 3. If the anthropogenic component is 40% of the
total increase, where does the other 60% CO2 come from?
Slide 39
Tracking Carbon- Stable Isotopes Brian N. Popp
Professor/Associate Department Chair Dept. of Geology &
Geophysics University of Hawaii
http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/FACULTY/POPP/bpopp.html
Slide 40
Estimates of Monthly CO 2 Emissions and Associated 13C/12C
Values from Fossil-Fuel Consumption in the U.S.A. T.J. Blasing and
Gregg Marland Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center,
Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak
Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6335, U.S.A. Christine Broniak Department of
Agricultural & Resource Economics, Oregon State University,
Corvallis, Oregon 97331-3601 (2004)
Slide 41
13C in CO 2 Alert NWT, Canada C. E. Allison, R. J. Francey, and
P. B. Krummel Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organization (CSIRO), Atmospheric Research,
Slide 42
13C in CO 2 Macquarie Island, Australia C. E. Allison, R. J.
Francey, and P. B. Krummel Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organization (CSIRO), Atmospheric Research, 13C of Fossil
Fuels = -29.5 mil ( o / oo ) Atmosphere = -7.8 to - 8.0 mil Total
Change in 13C for period 0.2 mil/10 years Dilution Calculation:
Total C = 730 Gt x (8.0-7.8 o / oo )/(29.5-8.0 o / oo ) = 6.8 Gt/10
years Contribution = 0.68 Gt/yr/3.2Gt/yr = 21% of CO2 is Fossil
Fuel
Slide 43
My Issues with the Science 1. Thermodynamic Approach Radiative
Forcing Radiative Forcing Energy Budget Energy Budget Surface
Temperature Assumptions Surface Temperature Assumptions 2. If only
21% of the change in CO 2 C13/C12 ratio can be attributed to fossil
fuels, how is this proof that ffs are the major cause of increased
CO2 levels? 3. CO 2 Lifetimes
Slide 44
30% Solar Energy Reflected Energy reflected by clouds, dust,
surface Energy reflected by clouds, dust, surface Ave. incoming
radiation 0.7 x 342 = 240 W m -2
Slide 45
Thermodynamics of GW* ( 1st Law: Higher temp flows to Lower
Temp) Cp Air (typical room conditions) Cp Air (typical room
conditions) Cp Water (Liquid) Cp Water (Liquid) Cp Water (ice) Cp
Water (ice) Density of Air Density of Air Density of Water Density
of Water Mass of Atmosphere Mass of Atmosphere Mass of Hydrosphere
Mass of Hydrosphere 1.012 (J g1 K1) 1.012 (J g1 K1) 4.181 (J g1 K1)
4.181 (J g1 K1) 2.114 (J g1 K1) 2.114 (J g1 K1) 1.29 g/L 1.29 g/L
1.0 g/ml 1.0 g/ml 5.1 x 10 18 kg 5.1 x 10 18 kg 1.4 x 10 21 kg 1.4
x 10 21 kg *The change in the internal energy of a closed
thermodynamic system is equal to the sum of the amount of heat
energy supplied to the system and the work done on the system. (2
nd Law)internal energythermodynamic systemheatwork
Slide 46
My Issues with the Science 1. How can a small increase in
atmospheric heat energy lead to significantly increased ocean temps
and melting Ice Caps? 2. Stable Isotope Analysis 3. CO 2
Lifetimes
Slide 47
The Debate on Global Warming is Over. Scientists say that
global warming is "very likely" driven by the buildup of carbon
dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases caused by human activity.
By BRYAN WALSH Time Magazine Posted Friday, Feb. 02, 2007
Slide 48
Precautionary Principle Equation Present Actions & Cost ($)
= Threat (Future Cost of no Action) x Scientific Likelihood / Years
in Future R. K. Pachaury Nobel Laureate Chairman IPCC
Slide 49
Precautionary Principle An ounce of prevention The absence of
evidence of harm is not evidence of an absence of harm. Devra Davis
Y 2 K Airplanes will fall out of the sky Y 2 K Airplanes will fall
out of the sky Pascals Wager Pascals Wager McCarthyism Associating
with Communists McCarthyism Associating with Communists Social
Darwinism There goes the neighborhood Social Darwinism There goes
the neighborhood Cigarette Smoking & Tobacco Science Cigarette
Smoking & Tobacco Science DDT & Dioxin, Silent Spring DDT
& Dioxin, Silent Spring Freon & Ozone Hole Freon &
Ozone Hole X-Ray Shoe Fitting X-Ray Shoe Fitting Thalidomide
Thalidomide
Slide 50
Global Warming Costs $48 Trillion = WDP $48 Trillion = WDP $13
Trillion = USA GDP $13 Trillion = USA GDP $7-18 Trillion Cost if
nothing done $7-18 Trillion Cost if nothing done $0.07-3 Trillion
for Prevention $0.07-3 Trillion for Prevention $200 Billion =
Katrina cost or Iraq War/yr $200 Billion = Katrina cost or Iraq
War/yr $397.27 my CO 2 cost last year (
https://sustainabletravelinternational.org/) $397.27 my CO 2 cost
last year ( https://sustainabletravelinternational.org/)
Slide 51
Global Warming Costs Part 2: New Zealand signed Kyoto (pop.
4.1M) New Zealand signed Kyoto (pop. 4.1M) Reduce CO 2 levels to
1990 in 2012 or pay. Reduce CO 2 levels to 1990 in 2012 or pay.
Expected to receive credits of $500M/yr Expected to receive credits
of $500M/yr Current Liability NZ$481M/yr est. (US$375M) Current
Liability NZ$481M/yr est. (US$375M) 2012 Liability NZ$4.2B
(US$3.3B) $780/person 2012 Liability NZ$4.2B (US$3.3B) $780/person
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22597157-5007146,00.html/
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22597157-5007146,00.html/
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22597157-5007146,00.html/
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22597157-5007146,00.html/
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/kyoto-cost-revised-down-481-million
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/kyoto-cost-revised-down-481-million
Slide 52
We have to change our behavior. .Al Gore
Slide 53
A Plan without Action is a Daydream; & Action without a
Plan is a Nightmare. Jim Sorenson Part 5: A Green Experiment
Slide 54
Climate Forest Parks" 4 billion metric tons of Carbon released
into the atmosphere/year 4 billion metric tons of Carbon released
into the atmosphere/year 20 Tons C fixed/Acre/year (depends on
species) 20 Tons C fixed/Acre/year (depends on species) 360,000
square miles (230M Acres) 360,000 square miles (230M Acres) 600
miles square of forest will fix all of the CO2 released by
industries in the world each year for ten years 600 miles square of
forest will fix all of the CO2 released by industries in the world
each year for ten years 554 M Acres - 1952 -- 749 M acres -2002
(+35%) 554 M Acres - 1952 -- 749 M acres -2002 (+35%) 1.9 B Acres
in US (not AK) 1.9 B Acres in US (not AK)
Slide 55
Sustainable Poplar Forest Potlatch Corp, near Umatilla,
Oregon
Slide 56
Conclusions There is no Environmental Apocalypse! There is no
Environmental Apocalypse! There is a Scientific Debate! There is a
Scientific Debate! Precautionary Principle says Science Doesnt
Matter Precautionary Principle says Science Doesnt Matter Ocean
dynamics are most likely cause of increased CO 2 Ocean dynamics are
most likely cause of increased CO 2 Afforestation is an experiment
and a solution Afforestation is an experiment and a solution Global
Warming is Global Politics Global Warming is Global Politics
Slide 57
Extra Slides follow
Slide 58
Tardis, from Dr. Who The Future
Slide 59
World Population Growth 6.586 Billion (2006)
Slide 60
A Timeline for the next 100 years 20072107471767578777 97 3727
Sea Level Rises 18 Inches ! Iran War Ends Ends 6.9 Mag Earthquake
on Hayward Fault on Hayward Fault Social Security Bankrupt Bankrupt
TerroristsExplode Dirty Bomb Gasoline @ $12/gal CO2 Credits
Worthless Global Temps Decrease - Sea Level up 9 inches Bird Flu
Mutates World Population 5 Billion Iran War Starts Starts
Slide 61
A Timeline for the next 100 years 20072107471767578777 97 3727
Sea Level Rises 6 inches 6 inches HIVVaccine Chinese Astronauts
Return to the Moon US Life Expectancy >85 years Chromosome
Therapy cures Cancer Dark Energy Explained by New Laws of Physics
RenewableEnergyDominates Global Temps Decrease - Sea Level up 3
inches End of Global Poverty World Population 5 Billion US Nuclear
Power Plant ConstructionResumes
Slide 62
Photosynthesis Requires & Consumes CO 2 Plants make sugars
by combining atmospheric CO 2 with water, powered by sunlight: CO 2
+ H 2 O + energy CH 2 O + O 2 CO 2 + water + energy carbohydrate +
oxygen breathing, decay photosynthesis Increasing CO 2, water and
energy will make the chemical reaction go from left to right,
making plants produce more carbohydrates. Carbohydrates made by
plants are essential for life. Hence CO 2 is: THE GAS OF LIFE
!
Slide 63
Sea Level Rise in Tuvalu?
http://www.john-daly.com/index.htm
Slide 64
Slide 65
Biological Pump from Planktos
Slide 66
Precession of Solstices and Equinoxes Positions of solstices
and equinoxes change through time Positions of solstices and
equinoxes change through time Gradually shift position with respect
to Earths eccentric orbit and its perihelion and aphelion Earths
eccentric orbit and its perihelion and aphelion
Slide 67
The most important thing you can do is to get involved in the
political process and get rid of all of these rotten politicians
that we have in Washington D.C. -- Who are nothing more than
corporate toadies for companies like Exxon and Southern Company,
these villainous companies that consistently put their private
financial interest ahead of American interest and ahead of the
interest of all of humanity. This is treason and we need to start
treating them now as traitors. - ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR July 8, 2007
And I will see all of you on the barricades.
Slide 68
Industrial Revolution = Steel Steel Ships Steel Ships Railroads
Railroads Buildings Buildings All of this slowly corrodes All of
this slowly corrodes
Slide 69
Open-Ocean Iron Enrichment "Give me half a tanker full of iron
and I'll give you an ice age (John Martin) "Give me half a tanker
full of iron and I'll give you an ice age (John Martin) Results of
fertilizing large patches of the ocean with iron Results of
fertilizing large patches of the ocean with iron Showed strong
biological response and chemical draw- down of CO 2 in the water
column But what was the fate of this carbon? Plant uptake of carbon
in the ocean is generally followed by zooplankton bloom Plant
uptake of carbon in the ocean is generally followed by zooplankton
bloom Grazers respond to the increased food supply Producing a
blizzard of fecal pellets that descend through the water column
Exporting the carbon to the deep sea
Slide 70
Future Climate Over the next 10K years precession maximize at
low latitude Over the next 10K years precession maximize at low
latitude Intensify summer monsoons Intensify summer monsoons Tilt
should minimize at high N. latitudes Tilt should minimize at high
N. latitudes Help promote further glaciations Pattern consistent
with glaciations in next few thousand years Pattern consistent with
glaciations in next few thousand years Predictions complicated by
millennial-scale oscillations and anthropogenic greenhouse
gases
Slide 71
Confirming Ice Volume Changes Corals reefs follow sea level and
can quantify change in ice volume Corals reefs follow sea level and
can quantify change in ice volume Ideal dipstick for sea level
Corals grow near sea level Corals grow near sea level Ancient reefs
preserved in geologic record Ancient reefs preserved in geologic
record Can be dated ( 234 U 230 Th) Can be dated ( 234 U 230 Th)
Best sea level records from islands on tectonically stable
platforms (e.g., Bermuda) 125,000 year old reefs at 6 m above sea
level 125,000 year old reefs at 6 m above sea level Confirms shape
of 18 O curve from last 150,000 years Confirms shape of 18 O curve
from last 150,000 years
Slide 72
Corals found about 6 meters above present-day sea level Corals
formed at 15-20 meters below present-day sea level Lowest level of
submerged corals is 120 meters below present-day sea level
Slide 73
18 O records Ice Volume Every 10-m change in sea level produces
an ~0.1 change in 18 O of benthic foraminifer Every 10-m change in
sea level produces an ~0.1 change in 18 O of benthic foraminifer
The age of most prominent 18 O minima Correspond with ages of most
prominent reef recording sea level high stands Absolute sea levels
estimates from reefs Absolute sea levels estimates from reefs
Correspond to shifts in 18 O Reef sea level record agreement with
assumption of orbital forcing 125K, 104K and 82K events forced by
precession 125K, 104K and 82K events forced by precession
Slide 74
Three Flaws in the Model Precipitation is not well predicted by
the model Precipitation is not well predicted by the model
Biological processes are not well described Biological processes
are not well described Cloud cover is not well characterized Cloud
cover is not well characterized Oceanic Processes Oceanic
Processes
Slide 75
Orbital Tuning 41,000 and 23,000 year cycles from
astronomically dated insolation curves 41,000 and 23,000 year
cycles from astronomically dated insolation curves Provide tuning
targets Similar cycles embedded in the 18 O ice volume curves are
matched and dated Now most accurate way to date marine sediments
Now most accurate way to date marine sediments Brian N. Popp
Professor/Associate Department Chair Dept. of Geology &
Geophysics University of Hawaii 1680 East-West Rd. Honolulu, HI
96822
Slide 76
Peak Deglacial Warmth With atmospheric CO 2 levels steady and
high With atmospheric CO 2 levels steady and high Glacial ice
largely melted Glacial ice largely melted Summer insolation and
vegetation changes affected temperatures Insolation 5% higher
warmed high latitudes Insolation 5% higher warmed high latitudes
Displacement of high-albedo tundra by low-albedo spruce caused
positive feedback Displacement of high-albedo tundra by low-albedo
spruce caused positive feedback Greater warming
Slide 77
Physical Oceanographic Changes in CO 2 During glaciations
physical properties change During glaciations physical properties
change Temperature and salinity Affect solubility of CO 2 (aq) and
thus pCO 2 90% of the CO 2 decrease unexplained by physical
processes
Slide 78
Changes in Soil Carbon Expansion of ice sheets Expansion of ice
sheets Covered or displaced forests Coniferous and deciduous trees
Coniferous and deciduous trees Displaced forests replaced by
steppes and grasslands Have lower carbon biomass Pollen records in
lakes Pollen records in lakes Indicate glacial times were dryer and
less vegetated than interglacial Estimates of total vegetation
reduced by 25% (15-30%) during glacial maxima Estimates of total
vegetation reduced by 25% (15-30%) during glacial maxima CO 2
removed from atmosphere did not go into vegetation on land!
Slide 79
Interglacial-Glacial Change in Carbon At LGM, reduction of
carbon occurred in atmosphere, vegetation and soils on land and in
surface ocean At LGM, reduction of carbon occurred in atmosphere,
vegetation and soils on land and in surface ocean This carbon (1010
gigatons) must have been moved to deep ocean This carbon (1010
gigatons) must have been moved to deep ocean Ice core data indicate
atmospheric CO 2 30% lower Ocean mixed layer in equilibrium with
atmosphere so it too was lower by 30% Terrestrial vegetation 25%
lower Mass balance indicates 2.7% increase in deep ocean
Slide 80
Increase the Ocean Carbon Pump If biological productivity and C
org export were higher in surface waters during glacial intervals
If biological productivity and C org export were higher in surface
waters during glacial intervals Atmospheric CO 2 could be fixed in
shallow ocean by phytoplankton Sinking dead organic matter
transfers that carbon to the deep ocean Sinking dead organic matter
transfers that carbon to the deep ocean Biological productivity and
export can only increase if essential nutrients increase in surface
ocean Biological productivity and export can only increase if
essential nutrients increase in surface ocean Increases in
wind-driven upwelling of deep, nutrient-rich water Increases in the
nutrient concentration of deep water that is already upwelling
Slide 81
Open-Ocean Iron Enrichment "Give me half a tanker full of iron
and I'll give you an ice age (John Martin) "Give me half a tanker
full of iron and I'll give you an ice age (John Martin) Results of
fertilizing large patches of the ocean with iron Results of
fertilizing large patches of the ocean with iron Showed strong
biological response and chemical draw- down of CO 2 in the water
column But what was the fate of this carbon? Plant uptake of carbon
in the ocean is generally followed by zooplankton bloom Plant
uptake of carbon in the ocean is generally followed by zooplankton
bloom Grazers respond to the increased food supply Producing a
blizzard of fecal pellets that descend through the water column
Exporting the carbon to the deep sea
Slide 82
14 Carbon in Atmosphere life about 12 years P. J. Reimer, T. A.
Brown, R. W. Reimer October 12, 2004
Slide 83
Temperature and Ice Mass Balance Temperature main factor
determining ice growth Temperature main factor determining ice
growth Net accumulation or Net ablation Since ablation rate
increases rapidly with increasing temperature Since ablation rate
increases rapidly with increasing temperature Summer melting
controls ice sheet growth Summer insolation must control ice sheet
growth
Slide 84
Carbon System Controls on CO 2 Increase biologic carbon pump in
coastal and tropical ocean Increase carbon pump in Antarctic Change
chemistry of Antarctic surface water Change chemistry of shallow
Southern Ocean subsurface water
Slide 85
Productivity Climate Link Biological Pump photosynthesis takes
up CO 2 and nutrients, plants eaten by zooplankton, dead
zooplankton or excreted matter sinks carrying carbon to sediments
Biological Pump photosynthesis takes up CO 2 and nutrients, plants
eaten by zooplankton, dead zooplankton or excreted matter sinks
carrying carbon to sediments
Slide 86
Slide 87
Export Removal of Carbon For every 1000 carbon atoms taken up
by phytoplankton For every 1000 carbon atoms taken up by
phytoplankton 50-100 sink below 100 m 50-100 sink below 100 m 10
are exported to depths below 1 km 10 are exported to depths below 1
km Stored for millennia 1 carbon atom is buried in deep sea
sediments 1 carbon atom is buried in deep sea sediments Sequestered
for eons
Slide 88
Increases in Greenhouse Gases CO 2 increase anthropogenic and
seasonal CO 2 increase anthropogenic and seasonal Anthropogenic
burning fossil fuels and deforestation Seasonal uptake of CO 2 in
N. hemisphere terrestrial vegetation Methane increase anthropogenic
Methane increase anthropogenic Rice patties, cows, swamps,
termites, biomass burning, fossil fuels, domestic sewage
Slide 89
Paleoclimate Reconstructions Climate varies over different time
scales and each periodicity is a manifestation of separate forcing
mechanisms Climate varies over different time scales and each
periodicity is a manifestation of separate forcing mechanisms
Different components of the climate system change and respond to
forcing factors at different rates Different components of the
climate system change and respond to forcing factors at different
rates To understand the role each component plays in the evolution
of climate we must have a record longer than the time it takes for
the component to undergo significant change To understand the role
each component plays in the evolution of climate we must have a
record longer than the time it takes for the component to undergo
significant change
Slide 90
Proxy Calibration: An Example Emiliania huxleyi is one of 5000
or so species of phytoplankton Emiliania huxleyi is one of 5000 or
so species of phytoplankton Most abundant coccolithophore on a
global basis, and is extremely widespread Most abundant
coccolithophore on a global basis, and is extremely widespread
Occurs in all except the polar oceans Produces unique compounds
Produces unique compounds C 37 -C 39 di-, tri- and tetraunsaturated
methyl and ethyl ketones
Slide 91
Vegetation Vegetation General gradual movement of warm- adapted
biomes north General gradual movement of warm- adapted biomes north
Pollen records indicate spruce and oak moved north Mid-glacial
produced no-analog vegetation Mid-glacial produced no-analog
vegetation Mixtures that do not exist today Different response of a
particular type of plant to changing climate
Slide 92
Vegetation Vegetation General gradual movement of warm- adapted
biomes north General gradual movement of warm- adapted biomes north
Pollen records indicate spruce and oak moved north Mid-glacial
produced no- analog vegetation Mid-glacial produced no- analog
vegetation Mixtures that do not exist today Different response of a
particular type of plant to changing climate
Slide 93
Tracking Carbon 13 C values can be used to determine how carbon
moved from surface reservoirs to deep ocean Major carbon reservoirs
have different amounts of organic and inorganic carbon Major carbon
reservoirs have different amounts of organic and inorganic carbon
Each with characteristic 13 C values
Slide 94
Ice Sheet Growth Lags Summer Insolation Ice sheet 3 km thick
takes 10,000 years to grow under most favorable conditions Ice
sheet 3 km thick takes 10,000 years to grow under most favorable
conditions Consequently, lag summer insolation cooling Ice sheet
growth maximized Ice sheet growth maximized Well after summer
insolation minimum Phase lag Phase lag cycle Growth Growth Ablation
Ablation
Slide 95
Glaciers For the 21st century, we expect that surface mass
balance changes will dominate the volume response of both ice
sheets. A key question is whether ice-dynamical mechanisms could
operate which would enhance ice discharge sufficiently to have an
appreciable additional effect on sea level rise. For the 21st
century, we expect that surface mass balance changes will dominate
the volume response of both ice sheets. A key question is whether
ice-dynamical mechanisms could operate which would enhance ice
discharge sufficiently to have an appreciable additional effect on
sea level rise.
Slide 96
Abrupt Climate Change Part 3: A simple answer to Global
Warming
Slide 97
14 Carbon isotopes This 2004 article in Nature (Vol. 431,
1084-1087) points out that 14 C values in tree rings have decreased
since 11.000 years ago, but the last 2.000 years show an increase,
due to solar variability.
Slide 98
Solar Variability
Slide 99
Tim Ball nsrp.com
Slide 100
IPCCs proof of anthropogenic global warming Atmospheric CO 2
increase closely parallels accumulated emissions from the burning
of fossil fuels. Atmospheric CO 2 increase closely parallels
accumulated emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. CO 2 in ice
cores show that air CO 2 has increased 21% from 280 til 353 ppm
over the last 150 years. CO 2 in ice cores show that air CO 2 has
increased 21% from 280 til 353 ppm over the last 150 years. Carbon
isotope ratios of 13 C/ 12 C and 14 C/ 12 C have decreased in
atmospheric CO 2, they agree qualitatively with expected additions
of 12 C from burning of fossil fuel (enriched in 12 C). This
implicates that CO 2 has a long lifetime in the Earths atmosphere:
rough indication 50 200 years. Carbon isotope ratios of 13 C/ 12 C
and 14 C/ 12 C have decreased in atmospheric CO 2, they agree
qualitatively with expected additions of 12 C from burning of
fossil fuel (enriched in 12 C). This implicates that CO 2 has a
long lifetime in the Earths atmosphere: rough indication 50 200
years.
Slide 101
Dry Lake in Death Valley
Slide 102
Nevada >5000 years ago
Slide 103
Tracking Carbon 13 C values can be used to determine how carbon
moved from surface reservoirs to deep ocean Major carbon reservoirs
have different amounts of organic and inorganic carbon Major carbon
reservoirs have different amounts of organic and inorganic carbon
Each with characteristic 13 C values
Slide 104
13 C Changes During Photosynthesis Large KIE during carbon
fixation by plants Large KIE during carbon fixation by plants
Magnitude depends on C-fixation pathway
Slide 105
Some Major Flaws in the Model Precipitation is not well
predicted by the model Precipitation is not well predicted by the
model Biological processes are not well described Biological
processes are not well described Cloud cover is not well
characterized in the Computer Models Cloud cover is not well
characterized in the Computer Models Oceanic Processes are not
included Oceanic Processes are not included Changes in Solar
Activity not included Changes in Solar Activity not included
Slide 106
spectacular facts are hard to beat http://folk.uio.no/tomvs Tom
V. Segalstad Head of the Geological Museum, Natural History Museum,
University of Oslo http://folk.uio.no/tomvs
Slide 107
Slide 108
IPCCs proofs rejected In a number of publications our research
group has rejected IPCCs 3 proofs of anthropogenic warming.
Slide 109
Stable carbon isotopes 13 C/ 12 C isotope ratios are expressed
as (delta) values defined as the standard-normalized difference
from the standard, expressed as 13 C in per mil (). The reference
standard used is PDB (Pee Dee Belemnite). Analysis of carbon
isotopes is the only way to directly measure the amount of
fossil-fuel-generated CO 2 in the atmosphere. Drawing:
Finnigan
Slide 110
Proof from stable carbon isotopes Left: reservoirs found to be
in carbon isotopic equilibrium. Burning of biospheric fossil fuel
adds 12 C (low 13 C) to the air. 13 C of air in 1988 show ~4%
anthropogenic CO 2 in air (right scale shows % mixing). Not 21% as
asserted by the IPCC, which would have given air 13 C -11. Figure
from Segalstad (1992 & 1996)
Slide 111
Proof from isotopic mass balance Using the radioactive decay
equation for the lifetime of CO 2 in air, we can calculate the
masses of remaining CO 2 from different reservoirs using isotopic
mass balance; checking for match vs. air CO 2 in December 1988:
mass = 748 GT C; 13 C = -7.807 (Keeling et al. 1989). Figure from
Segalstad (1992)
Slide 112
Proof from isotopic mass balance The calculations confirm that
maximum 4% (14 GT C) of the air CO 2 has anthropogenic origin; 96%
is indistinguishable from non-fossil-fuel (natural marine and
juvenile) sources. Air CO 2 lifetime is ~5 years. ~134 GT C (18%)
of air CO 2 is exchanged each year, far more than the ~6 GT C
annually released from fossil fuel burning. Figure from Segalstad
(1992)
Slide 113
Effective atmospheric CO 2 lifetime The effective lifetime for
CO 2 in the atmosphere, can be determined by the help of
radioactive, radiogenic, and stable isotopes. All measurements with
different methods show short effective lifetimes for atmospheric CO
2, only ca. 5 - 6 years. Sundquist (1985); Segalstad (1998)
Slide 114
Exchange times airsea a few years Figure from Rohde (2000)
Slide 115
Proof from isotopic mass balance We also see why the IPCCs
rough indication lifetime 50-200 years for atmospheric CO 2 gives
an atmosphere which is too light; only 50% of the atmospheric CO 2
mass. This explains why the wrong IPCC model creates the artificial
50% error, nicknamed The Missing Sink. Figure from Segalstad
(1992)
Slide 116
Evidence for AGW Atmospheric Temperatures have risen by about 1
O C over the last 150 years Atmospheric Temperatures have risen by
about 1 O C over the last 150 years Correlates with CO2 increases
in the atmosphere and human population Correlates with CO2
increases in the atmosphere and human population Isotopic (C13/C12)
implicates Fossil fuels as the source of CO2 Isotopic (C13/C12)
implicates Fossil fuels as the source of CO2 Changes in CO2 are
greater than have ever been recorded in prehistory Changes in CO2
are greater than have ever been recorded in prehistory Computer
Models are predictive Computer Models are predictive
Slide 117
http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p1845.htm 31,072 American
scientists have signed this petition, including 9,021 with
PhDs
Slide 118
Updated Hockey Stick
Slide 119
AB 32, Calif. Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 Signed by
Gov. Schwarzenegger 9/27/2006 Signed by Gov. Schwarzenegger
9/27/2006 Establishes statewide ghg emissions cap for 2020 @ 1990
emissions level Establishes statewide ghg emissions cap for 2020 @
1990 emissions level Adopt Mandatory reporting rules by Jan. 1,
2009 Adopt Mandatory reporting rules by Jan. 1, 2009 Focus on Cap
& Trade Market Focus on Cap & Trade Market Prior to
imposing any mandates or market mechanisms, CARB must evaluate
impacts on economy, environment etc. etc. Prior to imposing any
mandates or market mechanisms, CARB must evaluate impacts on
economy, environment etc. etc.
Slide 120
Ocean Floor CO2 40,000 km (40,000,000m 40,000 km (40,000,000m 2
cm/year (.02M) 2 cm/year (.02M) 100km Deep 100km Deep 500m
500m
Slide 121
Lthi, D., M. Le Floch, B. Bereiter, T. Blunier, J.-M. Barnola,
U. Siegenthaler, D. Raynaud, J. Jouzel, H. Fischer, K. Kawamura,
and T.F. Stocker. 2008. High-resolution carbon dioxide
concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present. Nature,
Vol. 453, pp. 379-382, 15 May 2008. doi:10.1038/nature06949