Top Pick

() TP 140,000

3

/ T.02)2004-9175 moon.yong-kwan@shinyoung.com

3 . 1)

232 2 16

, EU 1 13

: 28

11, . GM

. 2) 5

/

:

3) 12 11

BREXIT BREXIT .

3

2019

2019

2

Summary ......................................................................................... 3

I. ........................................................................ 7

1. ..................................................................................................... 7

2. : ................................................... 9

II. ..................................................................... 17

1. ....................................................................... 17

2. ........................................................... 20

3. NHTSA ................................................. 25

4. 232 .............................................................. 31

5. 232 , ............................... 35

III. .................................................................... 39

1. ....................................................................... 39

2. : No-Deal BREXIT? ........................................................ 45

IV. .................................................................................. 49

Content

2019

3

Summary - Key Issue

,

1) / 232 2019 2 16

* 2018 5 23, / 232

* 270 . 19 2 16

* 90

* 15 , 30

2) 2018 10 16, EU, ,

* 90 , 19 1 13

1, 2 2019 2

A) B) C)

,,

25% 25%

&

98 13% 18 10

24% (98 )

* 2% -> 3%, 17 60

* 8% -> 10% 17 171

* 1% -> 5% 17 85

,

,

,

3 ,

* '18 10 ,

* VW 47% (VW 84%)

* BENZ 35%

* BMW 31%

* /

* PSA 1974,

1991

* Renault 1980

* HONDA 92% / NISSAN 72%

* TOYOTA 69% / SUBARU 48%

* MAZDA 0% / MITSUBISHI 0%

HONDA 92%

,

50%

SUBARU, MAZDA, MITSUBISHI

&

:

31%, 23%:

,

1

GENESIS ->

17

1(21%), 3(8%)

: ,

3

* BWM, BENZ, AUDI

/

90%

Cadillac(GM), Lincoln(Ford),

Acura(Honda)

* GENESIS

* VW 47%

VW

84%

* SUBARU MS 3.7%

3.9% M/S

*

SUBARU, MAZDA, MITSUBISHI

M/S

,

:

2019

4

232

1 1963 X 15 1982 ,,

X

2 1964

(GE) X 16 1982 O

3 1964

17 1987 O

4 1965 X 18 1987

X

5 1968 , X 19 1987 O

6 1969 ,

X 20 1988

X

7 1972

(GE) X 21 1988

X

8 1973

O

22 1991 X

9 1975

O

23 1992

X -

10 1978 ,,

X 24 1994 O

11 1978

O

25 1999 O

12 1979

O

26 2017 X

13 1981

X 27 2017 O

&

14 1981 , X 28 2017 O

&

: US Department of Commerce, / Note: O

(2014~2018 10)

: Automotive News,

76%

99%95% 93% 92%

72% 69%63%

47% 45%

35%31%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Ford GM FCA Honda Nissan Toyota VW Benz BMW

2019

5

- BREXIT

BREXIT or / ?

A) B) & 2 C) & &

BREXIT BREXIT No Deal BREXIT

- 2019 3 29 EU

20 21

(EU , )

,

2020 7 1

1

-

* BREXIT 2

* BREXIT 6

BREXIT & BREXIT

- (

) or

EU

EU

No Deal BREXIT &

&

BREXIT

* NISSAN, TOYOTA, HONDA

* JAGUAR LANDROVER

* BMW(MINI)

* PSA(VAXHAULL)

No-Deal BREXIT :

* EU 70 40

*

WTO

* EU WTO 10%

* &

BREXIT

* NISSAN: 17 1/3 ,

* TOYOTA: 17 15

* HONDA: Civic ,

* PSA: Vaxhaull 2 -> Vaxhaull

* BMW: Mini . (17 21)

No Deal BREXIT

* , FDI, 9 BREXIT Risk

, , -> 4%

* , , , 44%

14

* Opel, Vaxhaull GM

&

*

* (35%), (26%)

* (30%), (34%)

*

* (1%), S&T(4%)

* (3%), (5% , )

* :

* : (35%),

* (26%), (30%)

* (34%), (17%)

:

2019

6

2018 10 YoY-2.1% . ?

* 2018 10 YoY-2.1% (10 5 )

A) B) &

* (10%), (17%),

* 10%

('09.03~'10.12)

* ,

10% ('09.03~'10.12)

10% 5%,

7.5% -> GDP

6.9%

1.6L

* (China Automobile Dealers

Association, CADA) 10

10% 5%

* & (National Development and

Reform Commission, NRDC)

, Bloomberg

NRDC

- 1 ():

* :122 (2017 )

* (): 141

* (, ): 125

* (, ): 93

* (, ): 85

* 2015~2017

,

* ,

- 18 10 : YoY-2.1%

* 30 : YoY+16%

* 30 : YoY-3.1%

* : YoY+20.0%

* 2017 1 : 25,974

* 1 57,229 )

* 1 36.396 VS. 1 13,432

* ,

&

&

*

* : (25%), (16%),

(11%), (14%)

* 1.6L

1.8L/2.0L (7%)

* 3~4 -> JV

* OEM

* : 15% ,

Geely(10%), (1%),(3%)

:

2019

7

10 5 YoY-2.1%

. 28

. ,

2018 10

YoY-4.9% 2 .

. 15

1.6L

16 10% 5%, 17 7.5% 2

. - ,

. 3Q18 (M0) 2000

(YoY+2%) (M1) 1Q15

(+4%) .

1. 2.

: Marklines, : Marklines, / 18

3. (YoY) M1 (YoY) 4. M1

: Bloomberg /

: Marklines, Bloomberg

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

06-01

06-08

07-03

07-10

08-05

08-12

09-07

10-02

10-09

11-04

11-11

12-06

13-01

13-08

14-03

14-10

15-05

15-12

16-07

17-02

17-09

18-04

MPV

SUV CUV

(YoY,)

()

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

1 00

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

() 2015 20162017 2018

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

M1 (YoY) (YoY,)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

1Q

3Q

20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

M1

()

() ()

18 10 , YoY-2.1%

YoY-4.9% YoY-4.9%

2019

8

5. 10 () (: )

2018-10 2017-10 (YoY) M/S 18-10 17-10 (YoY) M/S

1,950,342 2,247,553 -13.2% - 18,128,486 18,525,863 -2.1%

VW 173,495 199,583 -13.1% 8.9% 1,643,634 1,594,292 3.1% 9.1% VW 175,231 183,490 -4.5% 9.0% 1,607,261 1,545,216 4.0% 8.9% GM 136,621 185,380 -26.3% 7.0% 1,420,490 1,492,897 -4.9% 7.8% GEELY 127,654 124,360 2.6% 6.5% 1,248,448 909,584 37.3% 6.9% GM 113,821 146,867 -22.5% 5.8% 1,077,640 1,144,742 -5.9% 5.9% 117,942 126,608 -6.8% 6.0% 1,031,728 969,105 6.5% 5.7% Changan 73,784 97,139 -24.0% 3.8% 708,351 844,092 -16.1% 3.9% Greatwall 94,087 96,023 -2.0% 4.8% 646,900 694,536 -6.9% 3.6% 59,563 56,043 6.3% 3.1% 593,083 580,001 2.3% 3.3% 67,433 75,005 -10.1% 3.5% 593,009 623,765 -4.9% 3.3% 66,358 70,227 -5.5% 3.4% 581,666 589,319 -1.3% 3.2% SAIC 55,985 49,805 12.4% 2.9% 532,583 400,680 32.9% 2.9% 71,381 64,181 11.2% 3.7% 520,668 581,202 -10.4% 2.9% 58,192 42,675 36.4% 3.0% 475,392 375,601 26.6% 2.6% GAC 46,168 45,452 1.6% 2.4% 440,760 421,672 4.5% 2.4% 32,334 37,006 -12.6% 1.7% 277,856 292,313 -4.9% 1.5%

: CPCA, / :

6. 10 () (: )

2018-10 2017-10 (YoY) M/S 18-10 17-10 (YoY) M/S

2,019,493 2,314,544 -12.7% - 18,933,137 19,059,682 -0.7% -

VW 180,000 193,782 -7.1% 8.9% 1,696,649 1,666,364 1.8% 9.0% VW 174,181 198,310 -12.2% 8.6% 1,680,122 1,642,717 2.3% 8.9% GM 183,154 201,312 -9.0% 9.1% 1,617,471 1,563,379 3.5% 8.5% GEELY 128,986 125,201 3.0% 6.4% 1,265,844 953,033 32.8% 6.7% GM 103,594 151,037 -31.4% 5.1% 1,089,133 1,169,711 -6.9% 5.8% 118,047 126,833 -6.9% 5.8% 1,034,418 969,794 6.7% 5.5% Changan 75,017 100,305 -25.2% 3.7% 739,979 862,955 -14.3% 3.9% Greatwall 97,026 98,590 -1.6% 4.8% 675,868 719,285 -6.0% 3.6% 70,019 80,016 -12.5% 3.5% 631,171 569,356 10.9% 3.3% 74,504 68,867 8.2% 3.7% 595,131 571,838 4.1% 3.1% 52,848 53,645 -1.5% 2.6% 589,542 588,702 0.1% 3.1% SAIC 61,360 51,608 18.9% 3.0% 578,329 412,994 40.0% 3.1% 70,062 54,693 28.1% 3.5% 565,331 577,557 -2.1% 3.0% 55,508 33,217 67.1% 2.7% 477,362 372,231 28.2% 2.5% 36,002 42,505 -15.3% 1.8% 278,382 255,182 +9.1% 1.5%

: CPCA, , / :

2019

9

:

5 .

.

. GDP 6.9%

. (10%), (17%), (

1~40%) Sub prime

2009 2010 2016~2017 1.6L

10% 5%, 7.5% .

10% (

) 2009 2010

.

. (China Automobile Dealers Association,

CADA) 10 10% 5%

. & (National Development

and Reform Commission, NRDC)

, Bloomberg NRDC

.

11 15 NRDC '

5%

.

. ()

.

7.

2009.01~2009.12 1.6L 10% 5%

2010.01~2010.12 1.6L 10% 7.5%

2009.03~2010.12 10% ( 5 5 )

2009.03~2010.12 , 10% ( 5

5 )

2015.10~2016.12 1.6L 10% 5%

2017.01~2017.12 1.6L 10% 7.5%

:

2019

10

5 . 9

10 YoY-13.9% .

,

.

.

2018 10 , YoY-2.1% . 30

YoY+16.0% , (Benz, BMW, Audi, Cadillac,

JLR, Volvo, Infiniti, Acura) YoY+20.0% .

30 2015 3.5%, 6.2%

5.8%, 9.0% . 30

YoY-3.1% . 1

2 59 30

YoY+16.0%

.

8. 9.

: CPCA, / 18 : CPCA, / 18

10. , 30 11.

: CPCA, Bloomberg : CPCA, Bloomberg

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

1 00

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2016 2017 2018()

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

1 00

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2016 2017 2018()

9.0%

5.8%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

2015 2016 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 2018.10

, 30

30 -2.1%

21.3%

16.0%

10.1%

-2.0% -2.0%-8%

-3%

2%

7%

12%

17%

22%

27%

30

30

30 SUV

30 SUV

30

10 (YoY)

18 10 (YoY) * -2.1%

* 30 +16.0% * 30 -3.1%

()

2019

11

12. 2017 1 25,974 1

122. ,

, , .

, .

30

, .

, ,

.

,

. ,

. Geely 2011 2%

15%` . ,

, .

12. 1 1

: , / 1 2017 , 1 2017, 2016

13. 14.

: , : ,

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000100,000

406080

100120140160180200220

Beijin

g

Zhej

iang

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gsu

Shan

dong

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jin

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i

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su

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t

1 (2017)

1 ()

() ()

1%3%

4.7%

4.7% 2.9%5.0%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(yoy)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18

GWMChangAn GEELYGM ()

1 * 122

* 203 * 185 * 144

* 85 * 88

,

2019

12

.

2000 . 40%

1 ( Motorization rate) 10

18 3, 2, 1 . 2017

Motorization rate 122(YoY+14.6) 1992 (120)

(17 ) Motorization rate 438, 840,

605 .

IMF 19 14.1 . 1991~92

Motorization 19~21

2,640~2,920 . 2017 2,378,

10 2.1% . - ,

2017 Motorization YoY 14.6

(1996~97) Motorization 19.5 +17.1

19 . 17 2,378

, YoY-2.5% 2,319 , 19 YoY+3.6%

2,403( 2,451(YoY+1.9%)) .

15. 1

: ,

16. ( 1997=100)

: ,

3 2

11

11 1

11

1

102030405060708090100110120130

18%

23%

28%

33%

38%

43%

48%

53%

58%

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 20%~30% 30%~40% 40%~50% 50%~60% Motorization()

'1'

10 18

30% 15 40% 7 50% 8

0.9

0.6

1.6 2.1

0.07

0.13 0.2

0.3

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

()

() (Index, 1997=100)

(1997=100)

* 1

122 92 * 438 * 605

* 1 17 14.6

96~97 19.5 * 17.1

* 14.1 *2019

2,403(YoY+3.6%)

2019

13

- GM Ford

TOYOTA 2030 3 350

. ,

. -

1 24 . (

1994 ) 33

. 17. 1 : 1991~1992

: , ,

18. 1 (2004~2016, 2017 )

: , 19. 20.

: CPCA, / 18 : CPCA, / 18 10

99120

438

16

19.1

21.4

15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

100

200

300

400

500

1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015

1

1

1 (YoY,)

1 (YoY,)

() ()

-30

20

70

120

170

220

Beijin

g

Zhej

iang

Jian

gsu

Shan

dong

Heb

ei

Tian

jin

Inne

r Mon

golia

Gua

ngdo

ng

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gxia

Shan

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ning

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ghai

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n

Shan

ghai

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Hen

an

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ngqi

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ei

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nan

Gui

zhou

Anhu

i

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Jian

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su

Tibe

t

2004~2016 1 ()

16.5%

20.7%

11.9%

8.6%7.7%

5.1%

3%

8%

13%

18%

23%

2016 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 2018.10

, ,

37.2% 40.8% 41.4% 44.1% 40.0% 37.6% 41.4%

20.1% 19.1% 20.3%21.2% 22.3% 23.5% 22.0%

17.4% 16.5%18.0% 16.8% 19.8% 21.2% 20.7%

13.0% 11.9% 11.4%10.2% 9.8% 10.0% 8.6%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2016 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 2018.10

2019

14

21.

2018 10 YoY-2.1% . ?

* 2018 10 YoY-2.1% (10 4 )

A) B) &

* (10%), (17%),

1.6L 10%

5%

* 10%

('09.03~'10.12)

* ,

10% ('09.03~'10.12)

10% 5%,

7.5% -> GDP

6.9%

1.6L

* (China Automobile Dealers

Association, CADA) 10

10% 5%

* & (National Development and

Reform Commission, NRDC)

, Bloomberg

NRDC

- 1 ():

* :122 (2017 )

* (): 141

* (, ): 125

* (, ): 93

* (, ): 85

* 2015~2017

,

* ,

- 18 10 : YoY-2.1%

* 30 : YoY+16%

* 30 : YoY-3.1%

* : YoY+20.0%

* 2017 1 : 25,974

* 1 57,229 )

* 1 36.396 VS. 1 13,432

* ,

&

&

*

* : (25%), (16%),

(11%), (14%)

* 1.6L

1.8L/2.0L (7%)

* 3~4

* OEM

* : 15% ,

Geely(10%), (1%),(3%)

:

22. , , 23. 2019 /

2017 2018E 2019E

(YoY) 6.9% 6.6% 6.2%

() 13.9 14.0 14.1

1 (YoY ,) 14.6 14.2 17.1

(, ) 2,378 2,319 2,403

(, YoY) 2.2% -2.5% 3.6%

(, ) 2,429 2,405 2,451

(, YoY) 2.7% -1.0% 1.9%

: CPCA, / 18 10 : / IMF

-2.1%

26.6%

6.5%2.3%

-4.9% -5.9% -4.9% -4.9%-12%

-2%

8%

18%

28%

GM

GM

2019

15

24. 10 (: )

2018-10 2017-10 (yoy,%) (%pt) 18-10 17-10 (yoy,%) (%pt)

70,019 80,016 -12.5% -12.5% 631,171 569,356 10.9% 10.9%

Verna (RC) 0 0 - 0.0% 0 16,123 -100.0% -2.8%

Verna (YC) 3,535 9,450 -62.6% -7.4% 26,334 62,971 -58.2% -6.4%

Reina (CB) 3,457 5,815 -40.6% -2.9% 30,958 10,363 198.7% 3.6%

Elantra (HD) 798 826 -3.4% 0.0% 12,779 16,146 -20.9% -0.6%

HDC EV 200 74 170.3% 0.2% 202 364 -44.5% 0.0%

Elantra (MD) 0 10,867 -100.0% -13.6% 8,014 92,140 -91.3% -14.8%

Elantra (AD) 16,576 14,099 17.6% 3.1% 175,409 78,665 123.0% 17.0%

Elantra (ID) 4,894 392 1148.5% 5.6% 44,040 17,656 149.4% 4.6%

Mistra (CF) 6,262 12,873 -51.4% -8.3% 90,808 104,241 -12.9% -2.4%

SQ 6,688 0 - 8.4% 6,688 0 - 1.2%

Sonata (EF) 0 0 - 0.0% 0 1,241 -100.0% -0.2%

Sonata (LF) 187 1,062 -82.4% -1.1% 2,956 9,110 -67.6% -1.1%

Sonata (LF HEV) 1,062 83 1179.5% 1.2% 2,142 1,607 33.3% 0.1%

Sonata (LF PHEV) 91 0 - 0.1% 584 0 - 0.1%

43,750 55,541 -21.2% -14.7% 400,914 410,627 -2.4% -1.7%

Encino (Osc) 122 0 - 0.2% 6,381 0 - 1.1%

ix25(GC) 9,001 6,076 48.1% 3.7% 59,473 33,019 80.1% 4.6%

ix35 (NU) 15,428 0 - 19.3% 102,345 0 - 18.0%

Tucson (LM) 0 2,286 -100.0% -2.9% 5,910 17,860 -66.9% -2.1%

Tucson (TL) 1,687 14,718 -88.5% -16.3% 51,285 98,324 -47.8% -8.3%

SantaFe(DM) 31 1,395 -97.8% -1.7% 4,863 9,526 -49.0% -0.8%

SUV 26,269 24,475 7.3% 2.2% 230,257 158,729 45.1% 12.6%

SUV 37.5% 30.6% 6.9% 0 27.9% 8.6%

:

25. () 26. ()

: , / 18 : CPCA, / 18

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

1 00

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

()

2015 20182016 2017

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

1 00

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2016 2017 2018()

2019

16

27. 10 (: )

2018-10 2017-10 (yoy,%) (%pt) 18-10 17-10 (yoy,%) (%pt)

36,002 42,505 -15.3% -15.3% 278,383 255,182 9.1% 9.1%

Pegas 5,509 2,218 148.4% 7.7% 29,591 5,010 490.6% 9.6%

K2 (UB) 0 0 - 0.0% 0 1 -100.0% 0.0%

K2 (UC) 5,799 11,726 -50.5% -13.9% 68,576 49,235 39.3% 7.6%

Cerato 374 648 -42.3% -0.6% 5,907 5,911 -0.1% 0.0%

Forte 280 771 -63.7% -1.2% 4,475 5,482 -18.4% -0.4%

K3 8,057 15,151 -46.8% -16.7% 58,756 101,291 -42.0% -16.7%

Soul 0 0 - 0.0% 0 0 - 0.0%

K4 950 2,676 -64.5% -4.1% 15,526 14,474 7.3% 0.4%

K5 TF 85 374 -77.3% -0.7% 1,919 2,894 -33.7% -0.4%

K5 JF 1,227 1,882 -34.8% -1.5% 6,643 17,307 -61.6% -4.2%

K5 JFc HEV 0 215 -100.0% -0.5% 703 2,998 -76.6% -0.9% K5 JFc PHEV 0 0 - 0.0% 549 0 - 0.2% 22,281 35,661 -37.5% -31.5% 192,645 204,603 -5.8% -4.7%

KX3 238 643 -63.0% -1.0% 1,402 7,437 -81.1% -2.4%

NP () 8,881 0 - 20.9% 58,024 0 - 22.7%

QE (KX1) 4,122 0 - 9.7% 12,311 0 - 4.8%

Sportage SL 0 3,781 -100.0% -8.9% 7,207 23,725 -69.6% -6.5%

Sportage (KX5) 285 2,067 -86.2% -4.2% 4,949 14,303 -65.4% -3.7% KX7 195 353 -44.8% -0.4% 1,845 5,114 -63.9% -1.3%

SUV 13,721 6,844 100.5% 16.2% 85,738 50,579 69.5% 13.8%

SUV 38% 16% 22.0% 31% 20% 11.0%

:

28. () 29. ()

: , / 18 : , / 18

0

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2016 2017 2018()

2019

17

Sub prime 2010 2017

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1,430 . YoY-12.8%

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. (10

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30. 31. 18 6

: Automotive News, Bloomberg, : Automotive News, / 18

32. SAAR (1976.01~2018.10) 33. -

: Automotive News, /

Recession

: Automotive News, Bloomberg,

-22%

-17%

-12%

-7%

-2%

3%

8%

13%

02468

101214161820

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 20172019F

CarLight Truck (YoY,)

()

0

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2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

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1 00

105

115

125

135

145

155

165

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01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

() 2015 20162017 2018

0

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11

13

15

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19

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US RecessionUS SAAR18

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0

1

2

3

4

5

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-10

0

10

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18

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. .

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. Sub prime

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. 3Q18 48 Commercial Bank

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6% .

2019 .

34. 35.

: Automotive News, Bloomberg : Federal Reserve Bank, Bloomberg

36. 37.

: Automotive News, Federal Reserve Bank, : Automotive News, Bloomberg

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

05.01 07.01 09.01 11.01 13.01 15.01 17.01

%() ()

4

5

6

7

8

0

1

2

3

4

5

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1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q

200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

3Commercial bank ()Finance companies ()

(%) (%)

4

5

6

7

8

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0.7

0.8

0.9

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018

Commercial bank ()Finance companies ()

($ ) (%)

-45%

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5%

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3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

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7

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1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018

Auto loan (YoY, )

(%)

3Q18 48 5.1% 1Q12

2019

19

.

, 2010 3Q18 $1.26

. 3Q18 90 4.3%(3Q17 4.0%)

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, .

2018 10 112

.

,

.

2019 2018 YoY-

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38. 39.

: FRB, / HELOC: Home Equity Lines of

Credit

: Automotive News, Bloomberg,

40. 41.

: Automotive News, OECD, : Automotive News, Bloomberg,

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

HELOC

(1Q03~3Q18)(%)

170

220

270

320

370

420

470

520

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0%

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00.3

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03.9

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(YoY) ()

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

98

99

100

101

102

Jan-2011Jan-2012Jan-2013Jan-2014Jan-2015Jan-2016Jan-2017Jan-2018

(yoy,)

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

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05.01 07.01 09.01 11.01 13.01 15.01 17.01

()

()

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2019 YoY-0.8%

1.739 .

2019

20

2018 10 , YoY+0.5%

. YoY-12.8%

36% 31.4% .

(YoY-15.3%) (YoY-15.3%) .

SUV YoY+10.6%, YoY+3.8%

. SUV(47%) (16%)

59% 63% .

SUV Small SUV YoY+31.4%, Middle SUV YoY+5.2%,

Large SUV YoY+14.0% . ,

SUV .

SUV FCA(YoY+7.1%),

SUBARU(YoY+4.9%) .

VW YoY+5.4% Tiguan

. 2018 10 Tiguan YoY+173.4%

FCA Compass(YoY+125.3%) .

42. 10 (: )

2018-10 2017-10 (yoy,%) (%pt) 18-10 17-10 (yoy,%) (%pt)

SAAR 17.3 17.90 -3.4% - - - - - 1,345,299 1,336,686 0.6% - 14,119,569 14,055,371 0.5% - GM 239,472 252,813 -5.3% 17.8% 2,408,280 2,448,315 -1.6% 17.1% FORD 191,682 199,698 -4.0% 14.2% 2,070,335 2,124,085 -2.5% 14.7% FCA 178,341 154,514 15.4% 13.3% 1,866,737 1,743,643 7.1% 13.2% TOYOTA 191,102 188,434 1.4% 14.2% 2,015,339 2,019,915 -0.2% 14.3% HONDA 122,182 127,353 -4.1% 9.1% 1,329,179 1,358,956 -2.2% 9.4% NISSAN 109,962 123,012 -10.6% 8.2% 1,234,644 1,319,253 -6.4% 8.7% HYUNDAI 53,025 53,010 0.03% 3.9% 554,725 564,750 -1.8% 3.9% KIA 45,102 44,397 1.6% 3.4% 497,144 502,327 -1.0% 3.5% BMW AG 26,518 26,963 -1.7% 2.0% 286,586 282,696 1.4% 2.0% DAIMLER AG 31,814 31,541 0.9% 2.4% 286,180 301,653 -5.1% 2.0% VW AG 34,076 32,727 4.1% 2.5% 345,253 328,911 5.0% 2.4% SUBARU 55,394 54,045 2.5% 4.1% 558,812 532,893 4.9% 4.0% TESLA 21,700 4,200 416.7% 1.6% 129,000 39,600 225.8% 0.9%

: Automotive News,

YoY-15.3% SUV+10.%

YoY+3.8%

SUV Tiguan YoY+173.4%

Compass YoY+125.3%

2019

21

43. 18 SUV (YoY) 44. 18 (YoY)

: Automotive News, /18 10 : Automotive News, /18 10

45. (YoY) 46. SUV (YoY)

: Automotive News, / 10 : Automotive News, /10

47. 48.

: Autodata, : Autodata,

47%

11%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0%5%

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Camry Accord Altima Fusion Malibu K5

18 (YoY,)

-11%10%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

18 (YoY,)

600

1,100

1,600

2,100

2,600

3,100

3,600

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

07.01 09.01 11.01 13.01 15.01 17.01

()Hyundai Hyundai ()

800

1,800

2,800

3,800

4,800

5,800

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

07.01 09.01 11.01 13.01 15.01 17.01

()Kia Kia ()

2019

22

2018 10 YoY-1.8% . Accent(YoY-53.5%),

Sonata(YoY-23.5%) (YoY-14.9%)

RV (YoY+22.1%) . RV

8.6% 44.1% , Light Truck

. 2019

. ,

2H19 .

.

49. (: )

2018-10 2017-10 (yoy,%) (%pt) 18-10 17-10 (yoy,%) (%pt)

53,025 53,010 0.03% 0.03% 554,725 564,750 -1.8% -1.8% 3.9% 4.0% -0.02% - 3.9% 4.0% -0.1% - Accent 1,483 5,485 -73.0% -7.5% 23,303 50,126 -53.5% -4.7% Veloster 921 596 54.5% 0.6% 8,857 11,122 -20.4% -0.4% Elantra 18,312 14,733 24.3% 6.8% 167,191 157,800 6.0% 1.7% IONIQ 1,121 898 24.8% 0.4% 12,727 9,327 36.5% 0.6% Genesis 0 0 - 0.0% 0 1,025 -100.0% -0.2% Sonata 7,265 7,595 -4.3% -0.6% 88,240 115,313 -23.5% -4.8% Azera 0 162 -100.0% -0.3% 627 2,773 -77.4% -0.4% G70 51 0 - 0.1% 52 0 - 0.0% G80 217 1,408 -84.6% -2.2% 7,141 13,371 -46.6% -1.1% G90 104 378 -72.5% -0.5% 2,088 3,644 -42.7% -0.3% 29,474 31,255 -5.7% -3.4% 310,226 364,501 -14.9% -9.6%

Santa Fe 7,728 13,024 -40.7% -10.0% 96,697 108,681 -11.0% -2.1% Tucson 11,493 8,731 31.6% 5.2% 115,007 91,568 25.6% 4.2% Kona 4,330 0 - 8.2% 32,795 0 - 5.8% RV 23,551 21,755 8.3% 3.4% 244,499 200,249 22.1% 7.8% RV 44.4% 41.0% 3.4% - 44.1% 35.5% 8.6% -

: Automotive News,

50. 51. (YoY)

: , / : ,

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

4

5

6

7

8

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

() 2015 20162017 2018

-25%

-20%

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-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

LT Car

(YoY)

2019

23

2018 10 YoY-1.0% . K3(YoY-16.7%),

Soul(YoY-14.1) , Carnival(YoY-

25.1%) ( Odyssey YoY+6.2%)

. 3Q18 K3 , 2019

1H19 . , 2.9

2019 . 18

$3,890 YoY+13.9% Sorento SUV

.

52. (: )

2018-10 2017-10 (yoy,%) (%pt) 18-10 17-10 (yoy,%) (%pt)

45,102 44,397 1.6% 1.6% 497,144 502,327 -1.0% -1.0% 3.4% 3.3% 0.03% - 3.5% 3.6% -0.05% - Pride 2,405 1,657 45.1% 1.7% 19,696 13,609 44.7% 1.2% K3 9,537 9,219 3.4% 0.7% 84,425 101,311 -16.7% -3.4% Optima(K5) 7,280 7,554 -3.6% -0.6% 87,125 92,258 -5.6% -1.0% K7 207 1,021 -79.7% -1.8% 4,158 5,464 -23.9% -0.3% Stinger 1,345 0 - 3.0% 14,344 0 - 2.9% K9 17 23 -26.1% 0.0% 277 375 -26.1% 0.0% New Soul 7,951 9,254 -14.1% -2.9% 85,839 99,981 -14.1% -2.8% 28,742 28,728 0.05% 0.0% 295,864 312,998 -5.5% -3.4% Niro 2,164 1,935 11.8% 0.5% 24,264 22,605 7.3% 0.3% Sportage 6,626 5,979 10.8% 1.5% 68,898 61,736 11.6% 1.4% Sorento 6,560 6,478 1.3% 0.2% 92,252 83,791 10.1% 1.7% Carnival 1,010 1,277 -20.9% -0.6% 15,866 21,197 -25.1% -1.1% RV 16,360 15,669 4.4% 1.6% 201,280 189,329 6.3% 2.4% RV 36.3% 35.3% 1.0% - 40% 38% 2.8% -

: ACEA,

53. 54. (YoY)

: , / : ,

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

3

4

5

6

7

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

() 2015 20162017 2018

-20%

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20%

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

LT Car

(YoY)

2019

24

55. 18 (YoY) 56. vs.

: Autodata, / 18 10 : Autodata,

57. 58. ()

: Autodata, : Autodata, / Note 4Q12=100

59. : 10 3.1 60. : 10 2.9

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30%

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0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

07.1

07.7

08.1

08.7

09.1

09.7

10.1

10.7

11.1

11.7

12.1

12.7

13.1

13.7

14.1

14.7

15.1

15.7

16.1

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17.1

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Toyota Hyundai

($/)

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2015201620172018

0

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170 . SDNY

,

.

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.

.

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. 2011

4%pt

.

61. 62.

: Autodata, : Autodata,

0%

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07.01 09.01 11.01 13.01 15.01 17.01

TOYOTA

TOYOTA

600

1,100

1,600

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2,600

3,100

3,600

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13%

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07.01 09.01 11.01 13.01 15.01 17.01

()Toyota TOYOTA () (Toyota )

TOYOTA

2019

26

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.

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63. HONDA 64. GM

: Autodata, : Autodata,

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

07.01 09.01 11.01 13.01 15.01 17.01

()HONDA HONDA () (HONDA )

600

1,600

2,600

3,600

4,600

5,600

6,600

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17%

19%

21%

23%

25%

27%

29%

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GM

2019

27

65. 2013~2016

()

()

1

2013

2Q

MY2011/13 Avante

8 13/4/2 ,

- 2010.11.12~2013.03.05 MY2011~2013

(Elantra) 8 1,059,824

2 MY2010~2013 Azera 13/6/28

- 2012.05.22~2012.11.23 MY2010~2013

(Azera) 5,200

3 3Q MY2013 SantaFe 13/8/15 Axle shaft - 2012.07.13~2013.03.12 MY2013 2.4L SantaFe 20,300

4 4Q MY2009~2012 Genesis 13/11/6

- 2008.04.30~2012.03.28 MY2009~2012

Genesis 43,500

5

2014

1Q MY2014 SantaFe 14/1/6 Sidewall - 2013.11.05~2013.11.15 MY2014 SantaFe 28

6 2Q MY2011~2014 Tucson 14/5/15

- 2011.01.03~2013.12.23 MY2011-2014

Tucson 137,500

7

3Q

MY2015 Sonata 14/7/10 - 2014.02.02~2014.05.23 MY2015 Sonata 2,138

8 MY2015 Sonata 14/7/25 (Caliper) - 2014.04.25~2014.06.16 MY2015 Sonata 5,650

9 MY2011~2014 Sonata 14/7/25 (Shift cable) - 2009.12.11~2014.05.29 MY2011-2014 Sonata 883,000

10

4Q

MY2009~2011 Genesis

/ Equus 14/12/8

- 2008.04.30~2010.11.21 MY2009~2011

Genesis Equus 42,800

11 MY2015 Sonata 14/12/23

(Axle shaft)

- 2014.08.29~2014.10.28 MY2015 1.6L Sonata 208

12

2015

1Q MY2015 Genesis 15/3/5 - 2014.02.21~2015.01.21 MY2015 Genesis 24,400

13 2Q MY2015 Accent 15/4/30

(ODS

) - 2014.09.15~2015.02.10 MY2015 Accent 2,580

14

3Q

MY2015 Sonata 15/7/13 - 2014.04.25~2014.12.04 MY2015 Sonata 128,804

15 MY2009~2011 Accent 15/9/24

-2009.03.01~20011.02.11 MY2009~2011

Accent 99,500

16 MY2011~2012 Sonata 15/9/24 ,

-2009.12.11~2012.04.12 HMMA 2.0L/2.4L

GDI Sonata 470,000

17

4Q

MY2015-2016 Sonata 15/10/30 ABS malfunction lights -2014.05.28~2015.08.21 MY2015~2016 Sonata 64,744

18 MY2013-2015

Genesis Coupe 15/12/10 suspension

-2011.12.28~2011.04.06 MY2013~2015

Genesis Coupe 10,800

19

2016

1Q

MY2015 Genesis 16/1/11

-2014.03.03~2015.02.09 MY2015 Genesis (DH) 11,142

20 MY2016-2017 SantaFe 16/3/17

-2015.09.01~2016.02.12 MY2016-2017

SantaFe 34,200

21

2Q

MY2015-2016 Sonata 16/5/5 -2014.05.29~2016.02.11 MY2015/16 Sonata +

MY2017 Elnatra 33

22 MY2016 Tucson 16/6/10 Hood Latch -2015.05.19~2016.03.14 MY2016 Tucson 81,000

23

3Q

MY2013 Elnatra 16/8/19

-2012.12.01~2013.04.30 MY2013 Elantra 64,500

24 MY2016 Tucson 16/9/14

7DCT software

- 2015.05.20~2016.05.31 MY2016 Tucson 41,000

: NHTSA,

2019

28

66. 2013~2016 ,

: , NHTSA, Autodata

67. /

2014.04 TOYOTA

- 2009 ES350

*

* TOYOTA 4

* 12( 12900)

2014.11 /

- 2012 11

* 2012~2013 120 1

* 5680 , 4320

* 2 475

( 270 , 205 )

* 3

2015.09 GM

- GM 2002 10

* GM 1

* GM 9 (1508 )

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* GM 25

2017.01 VW

* 2016 1 VW 60 .

20

* 2017 1 VW 43

* VW , 175

2017.01 Takata

-

* . Takata 4600

* Takta 10

2017.05

- 2015 9 Shock Absorber

* 2017 5, Shock Absorber

: ,

600

1,100

1,600

2,100

2,600

3,100

3,600

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

13.1

13.3

13.5

13.7

13.9

13.1

1

14.1

14.3

14.5

14.7

14.9

14.1

1

15.1

15.3

15.5

15.7

15.9

15.1

1

16.1

16.3

16.5

16.7

16.9

16.1

1

()

Hyundai Hyundai ()

1 2 3 4 5 6 7,8,9 10,11 12 13 14 15~17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

2019

29

68. / (: )

(: ) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F

16,524,111 17,475,428 17,581,424 17,581,424 17,511,098 17,388,521

YoY 5.9% 5.8% 0.6% 0.0% -0.4% -0.7%

YoY 0.7% 5.0% 1.7% -11.5% -1.0% 1.7%

YoY 8.4% 7.9% 3.5% -8.9% -1.0% 3.4%

MS 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 3.9% 3.9% 4.0%

725,718 761,710 775,005 685,555 678,513 690,000

Accent 63,309 61,486 79,766 58,955 27,408 15,000

Veloster 27,601 24,245 30,053 12,658 10,080 10,000

Elantra 222,023 241,706 208,319 198,210 210,006 190,000

IONIQ - - - 11,197 15,279 13,000

Genesis Coupe 10,859 6,457 5,130 1,026 - -

Sonata 216,933 213,303 199,408 131,803 100,859 100,000

Azera 7,232 5,539 4,942 3,060 692 -

G70 - - - - 352 19,000

G80 19,133 24,917 24,266 16,322 8,717 5,000

G90 3,415 2,332 2,143 4,418 2,531 3,000

Kona - - - - 40,000 45,000

Tucson 47,306 63,591 89,713 114,733 144,102 130,000

Santa Fe 107,906 118,134 131,265 133,173 118,488 120,000

Veracruz 1 - - - - -

- - - - - 40,000

MS 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.4% 3.3% 3.5%

580,234 625,818 647,598 589,668 584,045 603,800

Rio 35,933 - - - - -

Pride - 23,742 28,700 16,760 24,256 20,000

K3 69,336 78,919 103,292 117,596 97,996 90,000

Optima(K5) 159,020 159,414 124,203 107,493 101,512 90,000

K7 9,267 7,343 4,738 7,249 5,516 4,000

Stinger - 0 0 843 17,000 18,000

K9 1,330 2,524 834 455 336 1,800

Soul 145,316 147,133 145,768 115,712 99,345 130,000

Niro - 0 0 27,237 29,236 32,000

Sportage 42,945 53,739 81,066 72,824 81,272 75,000

Sorento 102,520 116,249 114,733 99,684 109,750 90,000

Carnival 14,567 36,755 44,264 23,815 17,826 13,000

- - - - - 40,000

:

2019

30

69. 18 (YoY) 70. vs.

: Autodata, / 18 10 : Autodata,

71. 2020

: , Note : Light Vehicle ,

3%

14%

1%-4% -5% -6%

-10%

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0%

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0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

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07.7

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13.7

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15.7

16.1

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Toyota Hyundai

($/)

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: US Department of Labor, Marklines, : US Department of Labor,

76. 77.

: , : WTEx,

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60

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180

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60%

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75%

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85%

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1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

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1998

1999

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2004

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2011

2012

2013

2013

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2016

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2018

Minin g and logging Constr uction

Ma nufactu ring Wholesa le trad e

Retail tr ade Tr anspo rtatio n and wareh ousing

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2019

35

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2019

38

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: US Department of Commerce, : US Department of Commerce,

2019

39

2013 5 2018 10

YoY+1.4% . (YoY+0.5%), (YoY-2.1%)

15 +9.2%, 16 +6.5%, 17 +3.3%

. 9 WLTP( )

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2009

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.

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94. 95.

: ACEA, : ACEA, OECD,

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019F

(YoY,)

(YoY,)()

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

06.01 08.01 10.01 12.01 14.01 16.01 18.01

(%) (YoY) ()

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,

IMF (18~19) EU 2.2%->2.0%

: 1.9% -> 1.9% 2.7% -> 2.2% 1.0%->1.0%

2019

40

96. (YoY) 97.

: ACEA, IMF

: OECD,

98. , 99. , &

: ACEA, : ACEA, IMF,

100. 2 , & 101. &

: ACEA, IMF, : ACEA, IMF,

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018F

(YoY) (YoY,)

98

99

100

101

102France Euro B4

UK Germany

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

MS() MS()()

-26%-21%-16%-11%-6%-1%4%9%14%19%

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019F

(YoY,)

(YoY,)()

-14%

-9%

-4%

1%

6%

11%

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019F

(YoY,) (YoY,)()

-5%

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019F

(YoY,) (YoY,)()

2019

41

2017 2.7% 2018 2.2%, 2019 2.0% ,

YoY+0.7% 1,594 . 2019

, .

.

Nissan, FCA, Ford, Honda YoY-

10.5%, -1.5%, -1.8%, -1.7%, . ,

,

(YoY+6.0%), (YoY+5.6%), Toyota(YoY+5.2%)

2019 .

102. (: )

() 18-10 () 17-10 ()

(YoY,%) 2018F 2019F

2018

(YoY)

2019

(YoY)

2018

2019

EU + EFTA 13,424,360 13,232,496 1.4% 15,829,668 15,940,475 1.3% 0.7% 2.2% 2.0%

2,926,046 2,884,676 1.4% 3,492,881 3,520,824 1.5% 0.8% 1.9% 1.9%

2,064,419 2,224,603 -7.2% 2,352,611 2,234,981 -7.4% -5.0% 1.4% 1.5%

1,836,480 1,737,371 5.7% 2,228,950 2,306,963 5.6% 3.5% 1.6% 1.6%

1,131,081 1,027,818 10.0% 1,359,002 1,454,132 10.0% 7.0% 2.7% 2.2%

1,638,364 1,692,767 -3.2% 1,898,931 1,822,974 -3.5% -4.0% 1.2% 1.0%

3,827,970 3,665,261 4.4% 4,497,293 4,600,602 0.0% 2.3% - -

: ACEA,

103. (YoY): ,

: ACEA, Marklines

104. &

105. &

: ACEA, IMF, : ACEA, IMF,

1.4%

-1.8% -1.5%-1.7%

-10.5%

2.5%5.2% 5.6% 4.4%

6.0% 6.8%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

FCA

VW

PSA

18 10 , (YoY) ,

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

30

80

130

180

230

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019F

(YoY,) (YoY,)()

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019F

(YoY,) (YoY,)()

Nissan, FCA

2019

42

106. 10 () (: )

2018-10 2017-10 (yoy,%) (%pt) 18-10 17-10 (yoy,%) (%pt)

EU + EFTA 1,118,859 1,207,772 -7.4% - 13,424,360 13,232,496 1.4% -

VW Group 233,806 298,289 -21.6% -21.6% 3,219,137 3,140,498 2.5% 2.5%

VOLKSWAGEN 114,340 134,864 -15.2% -6.9% 1,498,260 1,437,684 4.2% 1.9%

AUDI 31,274 66,487 -53.0% -11.8% 641,470 705,499 -9.1% -2.0%

SKODA 56,741 57,176 -0.8% -0.1% 618,773 593,931 4.2% 0.8%

SEAT 29,199 34,136 -14.5% -1.7% 392,191 336,779 16.5% 1.8%

PORSCHE 1,988 5,232 -62.0% -1.1% 64,165 62,290 3.0% 0.1%

OTHERS 264 394 -33.0% 0.0% 4,278 4,315 -0.9% 0.0%

PSA Group 190,790 193,095 -1.2% -1.2% 2,151,343 1,515,062 42.0% 42.0%

PEUGEOT 79,180 77,688 1.9% 0.8% 832,360 772,976 7.7% 3.9%

OPEL & VAUXHALL 63,379 68,413 -7.4% -2.6% 763,679 215,227 254.8% 36.2%

CITROEN 45,423 43,809 3.7% 0.8% 516,226 487,913 5.8% 1.9%

DS 2,808 3,185 -11.8% -0.2% 39,078 38,946 0.3% 0.0%

RENAULT Group 107,358 125,710 -14.6% -14.6% 1,404,258 1,345,331 4.4% 4.4%

RENAULT 68,981 90,049 -23.4% -16.8% 954,815 949,189 0.6% 0.4%

DACIA 37,929 35,192 7.8% 2.2% 443,481 391,885 13.2% 3.8%

LADA 327 468 -30.1% -0.1% 4,469 4,256 5.0% 0.0%

ALPINE 121 1 12000.0% 0.1% 1,493 1 149200.0% 0.1%

FORD 78,003 78,677 -0.9% -0.9% 855,916 869,381 -1.5% -1.5%

BMW Group 85,251 75,042 13.6% 13.6% 863,005 863,460 -0.1% -0.1%

BMW 66,403 59,059 12.4% 9.8% 683,362 687,114 -0.5% -0.4%

MINI 18,848 15,983 17.9% 3.8% 179,643 176,346 1.9% 0.4%

FCA Group 66,217 76,384 -13.3% -13.3% 891,498 907,932 -1.8% -1.8%

FIAT 46,299 54,820 -15.5% -11.2% 626,208 684,329 -8.5% -6.4%

JEEP 10,914 9,724 12.2% 1.6% 142,240 88,471 60.8% 5.9%

LANCIA/CHRYSLER 4,497 4,505 -0.2% 0.0% 39,959 53,801 -25.7% -1.5%

ALFA ROMEO 3,837 6,482 -40.8% -3.5% 74,882 72,526 3.2% 0.3%

OTHERS 4,497 4,505 -0.2% 0.0% 39,959 53,801 -25.7% -1.5%

DAIMLER 85,666 79,651 7.6% 7.6% 811,381 842,158 -3.7% -3.7%

MERCEDES 76,480 70,907 7.9% 7.0% 727,366 759,518 -4.2% -3.8%

SMART 9,186 8,744 5.1% 0.6% 84,015 82,640 1.7% 0.2%

TOYOTA Group 60,541 57,845 4.7% 4.7% 657,369 624,725 5.2% 5.2%

TOYOTA 57,359 54,487 5.3% 5.0% 617,729 586,717 5.3% 5.0%

LEXUS 3,182 3,358 -5.2% -0.3% 39,640 38,008 4.3% 0.3%

NISSAN 28,210 38,201 -26.2% -26.2% 439,288 490,723 -10.5% -10.5%

HYUNDAI 40,863 42,881 -4.7% -4.7% 466,618 440,348 6.0% 6.0%

KIA 40,740 38,978 4.5% 4.5% 426,558 403,902 5.6% 5.6%

: ACEA,

2019

43

107. 10 (: )

HYUNDAI 2018-10 2017-10 (yoy,%) (%pt) 18-10 17-10 (yoy,%) (%pt)

i10(IA) 6,650 6,709 -0.9% -0.1% 68,898 80,762 -14.7% -2.7%

i20 7,280 7,406 -1.7% -0.3% 78,799 87,803 -10.3% -2.0%

Elantra 120 263 -54.4% -0.3% 1,575 2,277 -30.8% -0.2%

IONIQ (HEV) 1,520 1,227 23.9% 0.7% 14,332 12,457 15.1% 0.4%

IONIQ (PHEV) 420 248 69.4% 0.4% 4,912 1,417 246.6% 0.8%

IONIQ (EV) 1,000 485 106.2% 1.2% 7,414 4,572 62.2% 0.6%

i30(GD) 0 235 -100.0% -0.5% 172 18,384 -99.1% -4.1%

i30(PD) 5,007 6,694 -25.2% -3.8% 59,929 48,071 24.7% 2.7%

i30(PD N) 600 0 - 1.4% 5,278 0 - 1.2%

Veloster(FS) 0 8 -100.0% 0.0% 10 132 -92.4% 0.0%

i40(VF) 350 938 -62.7% -1.3% 7,474 13,567 -44.9% -1.4%

G80 0 4 -100.0% 0.0% 27 45 -40.0% 0.0%

G90 0 0 - 0.0% 2 2 0.0% 0.0%

22,947 24,217 -5.2% -2.9% 248,822 269,489 -7.7% -4.6%

Santa-Fe(DM) 30 711 -95.8% -1.5% 4,869 9,419 -48.3% -1.0%

Santa-Fe(TM) 510 0 - 1.2% 2,177 0 - 0.5%

Santa-Fe(L) 0 134 -100.0% -0.3% 441 1,008 -56.3% -0.1%

Tucson(TL) 10,720 13,480 -20.5% -6.2% 120,764 131,265 -8.0% -2.4%

Tucson(FCEV) 0 29 -100.0% -0.1% 11 102 -89.2% 0.0%

Kona (OS) 6,800 2,764 146.0% 9.1% 55,068 2,774 1885.1% 11.8%

Kona (OS EV) 600 0 - 1.4% 1,936 0 - 0.4%

NEXO 18 0 - 0.0% 51 0 - 0.0%

ix20 1,425 2,802 -49.1% -3.1% 19,214 27,554 -30.3% -1.9%

RV 20,103 19,920 0.9% 0.4% 204,531 172,122 18.8% 7.3%

50 163 -69.3% -0.3% 1,788 2,999 -40.4% -0.3%

43,100 44,300 -2.7% -2.7% 455,141 444,610 2.4% 2.4%

: ACEA,

108. (YoY) :

: ,

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q

2015 2016 2017 2,018

IONIQ

Tucson i-Series

(yoy)

(yoy,% ) (%pt)

2019

44

109. 10 (: )

KIA 2018-10 2017-10 (yoy,%) (%pt) 18-10 17-10 (yoy,%) (%pt)

Morning 6,843 5,071 34.9% 4.5% 63,952 54,810 16.7% 2.3%

Pride 3,708 5,671 -34.6% -5.0% 37,436 64,602 -42.1% -6.7%

Venga 1,116 1,818 -38.6% -1.8% 15,942 21,112 -24.5% -1.3%

New Soul 355 539 -34.1% -0.5% 4,669 6,188 -24.5% -0.4%

Soul EV 282 859 -67.2% -1.5% 5,218 4,677 11.6% 0.1%

C'eed(JD) 1,850 5,387 -65.7% -9.1% 50,015 62,586 -20.1% -3.1%

C'eed(CD) 5,078 0 - 13.0% 14,949 0 - 3.7%

K5(JF) 187 186 0.5% 0.0% 2,619 3,392 -22.8% -0.2%

K5() 455 669 -32.0% -0.5% 5,979 8,919 -33.0% -0.7%

K5(PHEV) 392 466 -15.9% -0.2% 3,850 2,215 73.8% 0.4%

K7 0 0 - 0.0% 0 1 -100.0% 0.0%

Stinger 400 416 -4% 0.0% 3,426 614 458.0% 0.7% K9 0 0 - 0.0% 3 0 - 0.0%

20,666 21,082 -2.0% -1.1% 208,058 229,116 -9.2% -5.2%

Stonic 4,897 2,960 65% 5.0% 48,638 4,468 988.6% 10.9%

Niro HEV 3,143 2,536 23.9% 1.6% 29,565 26,320 12.3% 0.8%

Niro PHEV 662 637 3.9% 0.1% 8,285 1,530 441.5% 1.7%

Niro EV 1 0 - 0.0% 2 0 - 0.0%

Sportage 9,641 9,681 -0.4% -0.1% 108,051 114,678 -5.8% -1.6%

Sorento 760 887 -14.3% -0.3% 9,659 11,388 -15.2% -0.4%

New Carens 1,030 1,247 -17.4% -0.6% 14,746 16,905 -12.8% -0.5%

RV 20,134 17,948 12.2% 5.6% 218,946 175,289 24.9% 10.8%

40,800 39,030 4.5% 4.5% 427,004 404,405 5.6% 5.6%

: ACEA,

110. (YoY) :

: ,

-4%

1%

6%

11%

16%

21%

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q

2015 2016 2017 2018

Sportage Sorento CeedPride Morning (YoY)

(yoy,%)(%pt)

2019

45

: No-Deal BREXIT?

11 25 EU EU

BREXIT (Withdrawal Agreement) ' (Framework for the

future relationship) . 2019 3 29 EU

2020 12 31 .

EU EU ,

, 2, 1 .

EU ,

. EU ,

, ,

-EU .

BREXIT EU

. 12 11 BREXIT

EU 19 2~3 .

BREXIT . BREXIT 2020

EU ,

2, 1 EU .

1) BREXIT

BREXIT D-Day BREXIT ,

Nissan, Honda, Toyota, BMW(Mini),

BREXIT . BREXIT

(35%),

(26%), (34%), (30%) .

2) BREXIT &

BREXIT .

BREXIT

. . BREXIT

2 6

BREXIT .

BREXIT

12 11

BREXIT

6

6

2019

46

3) BREXIT &

, EU

.

EU No-Deal BREXIT

. Nissan,

Honda, Toyota, BMW(Mini), TOYOTA BREXIT

. Nissan Sunderland Qashqai

, Honda Civic, BMW Mini

. BREXIT

No-Deal BREXIT

.

No-Deal BREXIT EU 70

40 .

' ' 'WTO '

. EU

WTO 10% , Honda No-Deal BREXIT

10% .

-

/ . ,

.

No-Deal BREXIT

. No-Deal BREXIT

,

(1%), (3%), S&T(4%), (5%

) .

-EU FTA

. Liam Fox 10 5 2020

-EU FTA .

BBC

.

BREXIT - FTA

.

EU BREXIT

No-Deal BREXIT EU

2019

47

111.

820 * 121.9

() 856,000 * 18.6

() 1,749,385 * 13, 4

JLR, NISSAN, BMW(Mini), TOYOTA, HONDA, PSA(Vaxhaull)

() 2,540,617 * 2

() 1,334,538 * 77%

440 * 12.8%

() 160 * , , ,

: SMMT, Marklines, 112. BREXIT

BREXIT or / ?

A) B) & 2 C) & &

BREXIT BREXIT No Deal BREXIT

- 2019 3 29 EU

20 21

(EU , )

,

2020 7 1

1

-

* BREXIT 2

* BREXIT 6

BREXIT & BREXIT

- (

) or

EU

EU

No Deal BREXIT &

&

BREXIT

* NISSAN, TOYOTA, HONDA

* JAGUAR LANDROVER

* BMW(MINI)

* PSA(VAXHAULL)

No-Deal BREXIT :

* EU 70 40

*

WTO

* EU WTO 10%

* &

BREXIT

* NISSAN: 17 1/3 ,

* TOYOTA: 17 15

* HONDA: Civic ,

* PSA: Vaxhaull 2 -> Vaxhaull

* BMW: Mini . (2017 21)

No Deal BREXIT

* , FDI, 9 BREXIT Risk

, , -> 4%

* , , , 44%

14

* Opel, Vaxhaull GM

&

*

* (35%), (26%)

* (30%), (34%)

*

* (1%), S&T(4%)

* (3%), (5% , )

* :

* : (35%),

* (26%), (30%)

* (34%), (17%)

:

2019

48

113. No-Deal BREXIT

NISSAN

- 2017 167 1/3 Sunderland

* 16 Qashqai X-Trail Sunderland

* Nissan Sunderland

* 2017 2 , Nissan Hard Brexit 5

* '18 2019/2020

* Nissan 8

* Hard Brexit $5.8

TOYOTA

- 9 , 15

* EU Hard Brexit

* No-deal Brexit

* , ,

HONDA

- Swidon 4

* Civic

* No-deal Brexit

*

* Swidon

* No-deal Brexit WTO 10%

Ford

* Ford Dagenham Bridgend

* 1.4

* 2017 YoY 9.7 , 6 Brexit

* Brexit

* Ford No-deal Brexit

* Ford ,

- Brexit 2019 3

* 6

* Castle Bromwich 2 5 3

PSA

- Vaxhaull 2

* Hard Brexit Vaxhaull

* PSA EU

BMW

- BMW Oxford Mini

* 2017 Mini 21 2

* BMW Brexit

* BMW 2019 3 29 Brexit Oxford Mini

: ,

2019

49

(005380.KS) () 140,000

(000270.KS) () 34,000

2019

50

(005380.KS)

()

ASP (12/3) 108,500

(12M) 140,000

2011 10.3% OPM 3Q18 2.7%

, OPM 11.0% 0.1% . OPM

1) ( +0.6%p ), 2)

(+0.5%p), 3) ( +0.4%,

+0.5%p) . 4)

(+5.3%p), 5) (+2.2%p), 6)

( +1.0%p, +1.4%p), 7) (+1.6%p) OPM

. 1Q17 19.4

ASP 3Q18 27.1 . ASP 12.3

17.5 . ASP

2011 .

ASP , SUV ()

SUV SUV ASP 18.5 2011

2 .

2019 SUV Genesis G90(), 2019 G80

Genesis SUV .

ASP .

14

(12) 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F

() 93,649 96,376 98,386 97,387 99,813

() 5,193 4,575 2,773 3,687 4,628

() 7,307 4,439 3,367 4,803 5,926

() 5,406 4,033 2,442 3,661 4,400

EPS() 18,938 14,127 8,668 13,220 15,888

(%) -15.8 -25.4 -38.6 52.5 20.2

ROE(%) 8.4 5.9 3.5 5.2 6.1

PER() 7.7 11.0 12.5 8.2 6.8

PBR() 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4

EV/EBITDA() 10.4 11.0 11.4 11.8 10.6

Key Data (: 2018. 12. 3)

KOSPI(pt) 2131.93

KOSDAQ(pt) 709.46

() 5,000

() 275,352

() 276,939

(3M,) 863,230

(3M, ) 87,711

52 / 164,000 / 92,800

52 Beta 1.3

(18F,%) 3.7

(%) 46.5

(%)

5 29.1

8.7

Company Performance

(%) 1M 3M 6M 12M

-1.4 -13.2 -22.5-32.8

KOSPI- -3.0 -6.1 -11.3-22.0

Company vs KOSPI composite

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

17/12 18/04 18/08

(%)()

Relative to KOSPI

2019

51

1. 2.

: , : ,

3. OPM 4. OPM

: , / : ,

5. ASP 6. ASP

: , / : ,

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100% (YoY)

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

(YoY)

1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3Q18

OPM()

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

45%

55%

65%

75%

85%

95%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3Q18

OPM()

19

21

23

25

27

29

2009

1Q

2009

3Q

2010

1Q

2010

3Q

2011

1Q

2011

3Q

2012

1Q

2012

3Q

2013

1Q

2013

3Q

2014

1Q

2014

3Q

2015

1Q

2015

3Q

2016

1Q

2016

3Q

2017

1Q

2017

3Q

2018

1Q

2018

3Q

ASP RV ASP ASP

()

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

2009

1Q

2009

3Q

2010

1Q

2010

3Q

2011

1Q

2011

3Q

2012

1Q

2012

3Q

2013

1Q

2013

3Q

2014

1Q

2014

3Q

2015

1Q

2015

3Q

2016

1Q

2016

3Q

2017

1Q

2017

3Q

2018

1Q

2018

3Q

ASP RV ASP ASP

()

2019

52

7. & : 2017 ASP

: , / (YoY) (YoY)

8. & : 2Q16 ASP ->

: , / (YoY) (YoY)

9. , ASP : ASP

: , / (YoY) (YoY)

2021222324252627282930

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(yoy) (yoy) ASP() ()

1 2 3

4

5

15

17

19

21

23

25

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

SUV (yoy) SUV (yoy) SUV ASP() ()

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

110%

1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(yoy) (yoy) ASP() ()

1 23

4 5

2019

53

10. (: )

2017A 2018F

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2017A 2018F 2019F

23,366 24,308 24,201 24,501 22,437 24,712 24,434 26,804 96,376 98,386 97,387

4,293 4,727 4,340 4,218 3,468 3,926 3,693 4,618 17,578 15,704 16,990

GPM(%) 18.4% 19.4% 17.9% 17.2% 15.5% 15.9% 15.1% 17.2% 18.2% 16.0% 17.4%

3,043 3,382 3,135 3,443 2,786 2,976 3,404 3,766 13,003 12,931 13,303

(%) 13.0% 13.9% 13.0% 14.1% 12.4% 12.0% 13.9% 14.0% 13.5% 13.1% 13.7%

1,251 1,344 1,204 775 681 951 289 852 4,575 2,773 3,687

OPM(%) 5.4% 5.5% 5.0% 3.2% 3.0% 3.8% 1.2% 3.2% 4.7% 2.8% 3.8%

172 -307 -90 77 87 9 87 -286 -147 -103 -99

-68 -16 18 -147 -85 -67 -107 92 -214 -168 97

402 143 -32 -289 242 236 94 292 225 864 1,118

1,757 1,165 1,100 416 926 1,129 362 950 4,439 3,367 4,803

() 1,331 817 852 1,033 668 701 269 805 4,033 2,442 3,661

NPM(%) 5.7% 3.4% 3.5% 4.2% 3.0% 2.8% 1.1% 3.0% 4.2% 2.5% 3.8%

YoY

(%) 4.5% -1.5% 9.6% -0.2% -3.98% 1.7% 1.0% 9.4% 2.9% 2.1% -1.0%

(%) 1.3% -5.9% 11.4% -6.9% -19.23% -16.9% -14.9% 9.5% -0.6% -10.7% 8.2%

(%) 5.0% 3.7% 11.0% -2.0% -8.42% -12.0% 8.6% 9.4% 4.1% -0.6% 2.9%

(%) -6.8% -23.7% 12.7% -24.1% -45.5% -29.3% -76.0% 9.9% -11.9% -39.4% 32.9%

(%) -21.1% -50.7% -19.7% 3.3% -49.8% -14.2% -68.4% -22.1% -25.4% -39.4% 49.9%

17,823 19,187 18,824 18,656 17,389 18,852 18,625 19,302 74,490 74,168 74,331

4,097 3,571 3,714 4,033 3,778 4,216 4,041 5,647 15,415 17,682 16,356

1,445 1,550 1,664 1,812 1,269 1,644 1,768 1,855 6,471 6,536 6,700

23,365 24,308 24,202 24,501 22,436 24,712 24,434 26,804 96,376 98,386 97,387

1,083 877 555 70 400 451 -252 393 2,585 992 2,021

179 213 179 147 173 266 197 200 718 836 754

112 76 83 68 38 89 88 77 339 291 306

1,251 1,344 1,204 775 681 951 289 852 4,575 2,773 3,687

YoY

(%) 3.4% -1.2% 13.3% -3.9% -2.4% -1.7% -1.1% 3.5% 2.5% -0.4% 0.2%

(%) 16.1% 0.3% -1.4% 26.2% -7.8% 18.1% 8.8% 40.0% 9.7% 14.7% -7.5%

(%) -8.7% -8.5% -2.1% -6.5% -12.2% 6.0% 6.3% 2.4% -6.4% 1.0% 2.5%

(%) 4.5% -1.5% 9.6% -0.2% -4.0% 1.7% 1.0% 9.4% 2.9% 2.1% -1.0%

(%) -1.2% -34.7% 157.4% -91.5% -63.1% -48.6% -145.4% 460.7% -25.7% -61.6% 103.7%

(%) -10.0% -18.1% 11.1% 76.8% -3.4% 24.9% 10.1% 35.8% 2.1% 16.4% -9.8%

(%) 15.9% -52.6% -42.2% -61.1% -66.0% 17.0% 6.0% 12.6% -41.1% -14.0% 5.0%

(%) -6.8% -23.7% 12.7% -24.1% -45.5% -29.3% -76.0% 9.9% -11.9% -39.4% 32.9%

: ,

2019

54

11. (: )

2017A 2018F

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2017A 2018F 2019F

1,090 1,108 1,072 1,206 1,027 1,181 1,120 1,266 4,475 4,595 4,766

380 484 393 395 382 435 408 440 1,652 1,664 1,702

162 183 173 170 169 185 171 176 688 702 709

218 301 220 224 212 249 237 264 964 963 993

710 624 678 811 646 746 712 827 2,824 2,931 3,065

196 105 188 295 163 217 181 269 784 830 903

94 96 75 63 65 79 83 82 328 310 318

160 157 178 184 172 177 184 201 679 733 748

98 90 77 90 82 88 77 90 355 337 337

53 60 56 65 58 62 58 67 233 245 260

56 62 50 59 51 56 53 51 227 212 204

41 43 49 49 41 48 56 52 182 196 210

CHMC 11 9 4 4 3 3 3 1 29 10 10

Others 0 1 1 4 10 15 17 14 7 57 74

893 1,003 884 911 865 963 939 998 3,691 3,765 3,863

YoY

-1.6% -13.8% -1.2% -12.6% -5.7% 6.6% 4.5% 5.0% -7.9% 2.7% 3.7%

-5.0% 4.9% 23.8% -19.2% 0.4% -10.2% 3.8% 11.5% -0.9% 0.7% 2.2%

0.7% -3.6% 32.2% -2.9% 4.7% 1.4% -1.2% 3.3% 4.8% 2.0% 1.0%

-8.7% 10.8% 18.0% -28.3% -2.7% -17.2% 7.7% 17.6% -4.6% -0.1% 3.1%

0.3% -24.3% -11.6% -9.1% -9.0% 19.5% 5.0% 1.9% -11.5% 3.8% 4.6%

-14.4% -64.2% -26.6% -18.8% -17.1% 106.8% -3.7% -8.9% -31.3% 5.8% 8.8%

0.2% -8.1% -26.5% -26.9% -31.1% -17.1% 10.5% 31.4% -15.1% -5.5% 2.7%

10.2% -3.6% 1.6% 3.0% 7.5% 12.1% 3.8% 9.0% 2.6% 8.0% 2.0%

8.1% -6.5% -6.1% 0.7% -15.8% -2.4% -0.2% 0.0% -1.0% -5.0% 0.0%

29.7% 8.0% 2.2% 14.3% 9.7% 3.4% 3.6% 3.9% 12.5% 5.0% 6.0%

-9.2% 7.0% 6.4% -7.0% -8.1% -9.9% 6.3% -12.6% -1.3% -6.6% -3.8%

20.1% 6.0% 17.1% 8.1% 0.2% 12.5% 13.1% 5.9% 12.5% 8.1% 6.9%

CHMC -3.5% -19.8% -35.0% -53.8% -73.6% -64.6% -41.5% -74.2% -25.4% -66.0% 2.0%

Others -36.3% 36.2% -3.9% 117.1% 2512.7% 1089.0% 1644.5% 251.7% 50.5% 751.5% 29.8%

1.7% 1.1% 6.7% -10.4% -3.2% -4.0% 6.3% 9.5% -0.7% 2.0% 2.6%

: ,

2019

55

12. 12m Fwd P/E 13. 12m Fwd P/B

: , : ,

50

100

150

200

250

300

14.1 15.1 16.1 17.1 18.1

()

10.3x9.7x9.2x8.6x8.0x

50

100

150

200

250

300

14.1 15.1 16.1 17.1 18.1

()

1.0x

0.8x

0.6x

0.4x

1.2x

2019

56

(005380.KS)

Income Statement Balance Sheet

12 () 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F 12 () 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F 93,649 96,376 98,386 97,387 99,813 47,584 48,440 53,000 57,437 62,175

(%) 1.8 2.9 2.1 -1.0 2.5 7,890 8,822 11,705 6,209 9,035 75,960 78,798 82,682 80,397 83,606 7,934 7,203 7,463 7,299 7,286

(%) 81.1 81.8 84.0 82.6 83.8 10,524 10,280 10,619 19,477 19,963 17,689 17,578 15,704 16,990 16,207 79,468 78,592 75,953 74,261 73,238

(%) 18.9 18.2 16.0 17.4 16.2 29,406 29,827 27,519 25,544 23,855 12,496 13,003 12,931 13,303 11,578 4,586 4,809 3,534 2,619 1,962

(%) 13.3 13.5 13.1 13.7 11.6 20,730 19,910 20,854 22,053 23,375 5,193 4,575 2,773 3,687 4,628 51,784 51,168 51,168 51,168 51,168

(%) -18.3 -11.9 -39.4 33.0 25.5 178,836 178,199 180,121 182,866 186,581 (%) 5.5 4.7 2.8 3.8 4.6 43,610 43,161 44,679 45,860 47,417

EBITDA 8,552 8,104 6,357 6,576 6,974 8,601 9,890 9,890 9,890 9,890 EBITDA(%) 9.1 8.4 6.5 6.8 7.0 16,245 16,759 18,277 19,457 21,014

433 -147 -103 -99 -100 14,837 13,099 13,099 13,099 13,099 105 108 154 80 133 62,882 60,281 60,281 60,381 60,381 34 29 -74 -79 -82 36,456 36,454 36,454 36,554 36,554

-49 -214 -168 97 155 13,390 12,488 12,488 12,488 12,488 1,729 225 864 1,118 1,242 0 0 0 0 0 7,307 4,439 3,367 4,803 5,926 106,491 103,442 104,960 106,241 107,798 1,587 -108 741 1,105 1,482 67,190 69,103 69,323 70,750 72,864 0 0 0 0 0 1,489 1,489 1,446 1,446 1,446 5,720 4,546 2,626 3,698 4,445 4,203 4,201 4,201 4,201 4,201

(%) -12.1 -20.5 -42.2 40.8 20.2 -1,223 -2,279 -3,393 -4,507 -5,622 (%) 6.1 4.7 2.7 3.8 4.5 64,361 67,332 68,709 71,250 74,478

5,406 4,033 2,442 3,661 4,400 5,155 5,654 5,838 5,875 5,919 (%) -15.8 -25.4 -39.4 49.9 20.2 72,345 74,757 75,160 76,625 78,783

256 -1,114 -1,114 -1,114 -1,114 73,606 72,464 72,464 72,564 72,564 5,975 3,432 1,512 2,584 3,330 45,630 43,010 39,508 44,466 40,983 ) K-IFRS /

Cashflow Statement Valuation Indicator

12 () 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F 12 () 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F 997 3,922 5,990 -2,518 5,978 Per Share () 5,720 4,546 2,626 3,698 4,445 EPS 18,938 14,127 8,668 13,220 15,888 11,165 12,781 3,481 2,975 2,635 BPS 241,103 247,807 256,240 261,395 269,026

2,165 2,255 2,308 1,974 1,689 DPS 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,200 4,400 1,194 1,275 1,275 915 657 Multiples ()

-13,565 -11,384 470 -8,167 248 PER 7.7 11.0 12.5 8.2 6.8 () 199 425 -260 164 13 PBR 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 () -1,324 -726 -339 -8,859 -485 EV/EBITDA 10.4 11.0 11.4 11.8 10.6 () 300 150 1,518 1,181 1,557 Financial Ratio

-6,312 -4,744 -4,850 -4,869 -4,888 12 () 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F () 786 1,348 -80 -80 -80 (%) 133 118 0 0 0 EPS() -15.8% -25.4% -38.6% 52.5% 20.2%CAPEX -2,971 -3,055 0 0 0 EBITDA() -6.6% -5.2% -21.6% 3.4% 6.1%() -2,597 -570 -719 -738 -757 (%)

5,691 2,181 -1,018 -862 -1,015 ROE( ) 8.2% 6.2% 3.5% 4.9% 5.7%() 8,494 1,870 0 0 0 ROE( ) 8.4% 5.9% 3.5% 5.2% 6.1%() 0 0 0 100 0 ROIC 7.5% 5.6% 4.0% 5.2% 6.2% () 0 0 -43 0 0 WACC 2.9% 3.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%

182 -428 2,761 2,753 2,751 (%) 559 931 2,883 -5,495 2,826 147.2% 138.4% 139.6% 138.7% 136.8% 7,331 7,890 8,822 11,705 6,209 63.1% 57.5% 52.6% 58.0% 52.0% 7,890 8,822 11,705 6,209 9,035 19.1 13.7 8.1 10.8 13.6

2019

57

(000270.KS)

()

(12/3) 30,400

(12M) 34,000

2011 8.1% OPM 3Q18 1.9%

, OPM 6.9% 0.7% . OPM

1) / (+1.2%p), 2) (

+0.4%p ), 3) (+0.4%p)

. 3Q18

OPM 2017 4%p .

2011 4) (+2.1%p), 5)

(+1.0%p), 6) ( +0.7%p, +0.8%p)

OPM

(Ex-factory) (Wholesale) / 18 . ,

,

. 18 1 3.5, 5.1 2014 . 10

2.7, 2.9 .

,

1Q~3Q18 . 3Q18

1.87(17 324)

10 2.7 2014 3

. ASP

& .

(12) 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F

() 52,713 53,536 55,144 56,108 58,129

() 2,461 662 1,173 1,822 1,982

() 3,442 1,140 1,841 2,569 2,875

() 2,755 968 1,473 1,953 2,128

EPS() 6,795 2,388 3,634 4,817 5,249

(%) 4.7 -64.9 52.2 32.6 9.0

ROE(%) 10.8 3.6 5.4 6.9 7.2

PER() 5.8 14.0 8.4 6.3 5.8

PBR() 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4

EV/EBITDA() 3.7 5.1 4.1 3.0 2.8

Key Data (: 2018. 12. 3)

KOSPI(pt) 2131.93

KOSDAQ(pt) 709.46

() 5,000

() 123,230

() 405,363

(3M,) 820,212

(3M, ) 23,762

52 / 35,250 / 27,000

52 Beta 1.2

(18F,%) 2.6

(%) 40.5

(%)

4 35.6