2011 12 16 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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    MIG BANK / Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland

    Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

    Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

    WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

    MA

    S-TERMMULTI-DAY

    L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

    STRATEGY/POSITION

    ENTRYLEVEL

    OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

    EUR/USD SHORT 1 1.3280 1.2870 (Entered 12/12/2011) 1.3140GBP/USD Await fresh signal.USD/JPY Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup Above 80.00.USD/CHF Possible sell higher.USD/CAD Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup.AUD/USD SHORT 2 1.0050 0.9660/0.9380 (Entered 13/12/2011) 1.0050GBP/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/JPY Buy limit 3 101.05 102.05/105.00/107.68 100.05EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8510 0.8395/0.8300/0.8142 0.8615EUR/CHF Sell Stop 3 1.2130 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1.2230GOLD SHORT 2 1705 1530/1300 (Entered 12/12/2011) 1705SILVER SHORT 2 34.1300 26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 34.1300

    DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT16 December, 2011

    Ron William, CMT, MSTA

    Bijoy Kar, CFA

    Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry

    point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is

    published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

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    Short-covering around the key 1.3000 level.

    EUR/USD is unwinding mildly from oversold conditions, driven by short-

    covering as the market adjusts to a new bearish paradigm, following the

    break beneath that all-important psychological level at 1.3000.

    Our cycle analysis successfully signalled increased volatility within the first

    two weeks of December across risk proxies, including the equity and

    commodity markets. Expect some respite ahead of the holiday period.

    Watch for a sustained close beneath 1.3000 (psychological level) to resume

    EUR/USDs multi-month downtrend into 1.2870 (2011 major low).

    Near-term resistance can be found at 1.3215 and potentially even 1.3550

    (02 Dec high). Any rebound into these levels is likely to be short -lived.

    Inversely, the USD Index has extended its recovery higher to new 11-month

    highs, (a move worth over 10% f rom the summer 2010 lows).

    Speculative (net long) liquidity flows is strengthening once again and will

    continue to help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold

    extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

    Special Report:EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO

    MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    SHORT 1: 1.3280, Objs: 1.2870, Stop: 1.3280

    EUR/USD

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    EUR/USD

    EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    USD Index daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    UPTREND(2 YEARS)

    200-DMA(1.4060)

    BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED

    BREAKOUTS

    EUR/USD (Daily)

    BREAKOUTZONE

    (1.4000)

    1.3000 (PSYCHOLOGICAL)1.2870 (2011 MAJOR LOW)

    9 KEY SUPPORT(73.50-73.00)

    13

    USD INDEX

    200-DMA(75.88)

    DEMARKBUY SIGNALS

    BREAKOUT ZONE

    EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

    11 MONTHHIGH

    http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf
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    Break over trend-line off 1.5770 sought before attempting longs.

    GBP/USD has managed to break out of its prior sequence of lower lows and

    higher highs, forming an hourly falling channel. This may mark the final

    phase of short-term weakness from the 1.5780 lower high. However, abreak over the hourly channel resistance is sought before attempting longs.

    Demand for sterling is likely to be affected by the movement in selected core

    Euro-Zone sovereign markets. In particular we note that Italian 10 year

    yields are shying away from 7.000%. Daily structure is also suggestive of a

    return to test 7.000% and higher. A continuation of higher yields may see

    Sterling being adopted as a safe haven again. This reasoning would likely

    help to keep cable within its year long range.

    Failure to remain above 1.5423 will see an immediate target at 1.5272 andthen potentially trend-line support at 1.5110.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Await fresh signal.

    GBP/USD

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Weakening beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level).

    USD/JPY is still weak beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level), as price continues

    to hold within a multi-day trading range (see hourly chart below).

    Confirmation beneath 77.25 (pivot level) would help trigger a third price

    retracement back to pre-intervention levels (PIR III) and potentially even a

    new post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL).

    Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying

    pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and be the first

    to call the market bottom, within the end of this multi-year contracting

    pattern (see top chart insert).

    This may first inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through

    psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a movewould help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,

    which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.

    The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a

    major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection

    points to trigger over the next few weeks, offering a sustained move above

    our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

    Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.

    Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal

    Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change

    Media Reports: CNBC /Squawk Box &Bloomberg

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426

    USD/JPY

    USD/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    QUAKESHOCK!

    POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)

    G7MOVEHIGH

    PIR II

    POSTBOJ

    MOVE (II)HIGH

    DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEAD OF

    NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)

    POSTBOJ

    MOVE (III) PIR III

    MULTI-YEARPATTERN

    ANTICIPATESBREAKOUT (85-80)

    POSTBOJMOVE (III)

    KEY PIVOT LEVEL (77.25) TRIGGERS

    POST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT

    DEMARKSELL SIGNAL

    USD/JPY (60 MIN)

    USD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdfhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdf
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    Encounters resistance close to our first target at 0.9555.

    Look to sell higher.

    USD/CHF has met resistance close to our initial target in our previous long

    strategy into the rise from 0.9176. We view the push under 0.9430 as

    potentially breaking down the short-term bullish structure. However, while

    above 0.9342, there remains scope for a further rise back towards 0.9548

    initially.

    Given that the region of the initial target has been tested and with yields

    continuing to rise in some core Euro-Zone sovereign markets, the trade

    location is deemed as poor. It is anticipated that a return to 7.000% in Italian

    10 year yields is imminent. This may once again pressure USD/CHF to the

    downside. There is thus potentially a greater opportunity to sell at higherlevels.

    Referencing Spanish and Italian government bonds back to their respective

    levels prior to the six party central bank agreement, we note that most of the

    positive after effects have worn off, with yields trading at 5.698% and

    6.824% versus 6.374% and 7.355%, before the agreement. (These yields

    were trading at 5.699% and 6.685% respectively at the same time

    yesterday.)

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Possibly looking to sell higher.

    USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    USD/CHF

    USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Unwinding from intraday resistance at 1.0425.

    USD/CAD is unwinding from intraday resistance at 1.0425, which coincided

    with a short-term DeMark exhaustion signal. The move has temporarily

    breached a multi-day bull-channel (see lower chart) and we prefer to wait fora resumption higher to open a buy trade setup.

    The bulls need to push back above 1.0425 and 1.0524 (25 Nov swing high),

    in order to trigger a breakout from the rates major triangle pattern.

    In terms of the big picture, a directional confirmation above 1.0680 is still

    needed to unlock the recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the

    upside breakout from the rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a

    major Elliott wave cycle (see top chart insert).

    Only a sustained close beneath 1.0200 and 1.0080, then parity unlocks

    bearish setbacks into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9879 and 0.9726 (31st

    Aug low).

    EUR/CAD is unwinding mildly ahead of the base of an important multi-

    month distribution pattern. A break beneath 1.3393-79 (19th

    Sept low/61.8%

    Fib), signals an important breakdown into 1.3140 and would provide

    substantial correlation pressure onto EUR/USD.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup above 1.0425.Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    USD/CAD

    USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    USD/CAD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    USD/CAD (Daily)

    200-DMA(0.9879)

    CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680

    OPENS LARGERRECOVERY

    DEMARKBUY SIGNAL

    USD/CAD (60 MIN)

    KEY RESISTANCE (1.0425)

    BULLCHANNEL

    DEMARKSIGNAL

    DEMARKSELL SIGNAL

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Strong unwinding from oversold conditions.

    AUD/USD is unwinding strongly from oversold conditions, which also

    coincided with an intraday DeMark buy signal (see lower chart).

    Even so, we expect this recovery to be short-lived and continue to hold our

    stop level at 1.0050 for the active model portfolio short position, which is still

    maintaining a risk-free bias.

    The bears must sustain below 1.0000 to further compound downside

    pressure on the rates multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.

    Elsewhere, the Aussie has weakened sharply, as expected, against the New

    Zealand dollar. Near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200-

    day MA and we watch for further setbacks over the multi-day/week horizon.

    The Aussie dollar is also pairing back its mild recovery against the Japanese

    yen, while holding above the neck-line of its two-year distribution pattern.

    Watch for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would signal

    further unwinding of global risk appetite.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    SHORT 2: 1.0050, Obj: 0.9660/0.9380, Stop: 1.0050.

    AUD/USD

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    AUD/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    KEY

    ZONE

    AUD/USD(1 YEAR)

    DEMARKSELLSIGNALS

    200-DMA1.0405

    AUD/USD (60 MIN)

    DEMARK

    BUY SIGNAL

    RANGE BREAKOUT

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Support anticipated close to 100.76.

    EUR/JPY saw an extension lower in recent trade following the break under

    1.3146 in EUR/USD, particularly in light of the recent static nature of

    USD/JPY.

    We now anticipate a degree of support close to the 100.76 level, from where

    a recovery may take place

    As mentioned in prior reports, the medium-term recovery that we have

    already witnessed from 100.76 to 111.60 is viewed as the initial leg higher in

    a larger recovery structure.

    Even if a lower low were to be printed in the medium-term timeframe, an

    initial recovery from the 100.76 region is anticipated. With this in mind we

    look to attempt longs just ahead of the key 100.76 level.

    Sustained price activity under this level will warn of a much larger

    continuation to the downside.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Buy limit 3 at 101.05, Objs: 102.05/105.00/107.68, Stop: 100.05

    EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/JPY

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Retrace back towards old trend-line support sought.

    EUR/GBP continues to witness short-term weakness. Although a move to

    test daily falling channel support near 0.8330 may develop, we prefer to wait

    for higher levels to sell. We await a re-test of the old trend-line support as

    resistance ahead of possible short positioning.

    Also noted is that 1.3146 has now been broken in EUR/USD, weakening the

    longer-term outlook there. This may assist a short EUR/GBP bias going

    forward.

    An initial target for the current downswing in the daily timeframe is on the

    support of the previously mentioned falling channel, currently at 0.8330.

    As mentioned in prior reports, the recent six party central bank coordination

    is in fact a warning sign and a clear weakness, suggesting scope for a creditcontractionary phase. We continue to expect a continuation of rising yields

    in the Euro-Zone and it is within this environment that we see the potential

    for Sterling to be perceived as a safe haven.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Sell limit 3 at 0.8510, Objs: 0.8395/0.8300/0.8142, Stop: 0.8615

    EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/GBP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Messy sideways trade continues.

    EUR/CHF is currently witnessing a flurry of price activity which has now

    triggered our filter level at 1.2226 (see below). It thus appears that the

    possibility of a break over the recent high at 1.2474 is receding.

    1.2226 will be used as a filter. Under 1.2226, we swapped our previous sell

    limit strategy to a sell stop strategy at 1.2130, with objectives at

    1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 and a stop at 1.2230.

    We reference the Italian 10 year sovereign yield on a daily basis in our

    USD/CHF commentary. A return to 7.000% and higher is building a recipe

    for disaster and, should it take place, may well instigate a period in which

    the Swiss Franc is sought as a safe haven irrespective of little to no yield

    pick-up. A parallel can be made with the negative yield that was available

    on short dated US paper during the last crisis. Sometimes return of capital is

    more important then return on capital.

    The 1.2000 level is the only level that the SNB has suggested they will

    defend. There is thus likely to be a large cluster of stops under this level,

    which if tiggered, could herald a return towards the 1.0075 level.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND

    Sell Stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.

    EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/CHF

    EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Gold remains capped beneath its 200-day average

    Golds remains capped beneath its 200-day average, which was recently

    broken for the first time in 3 years. The move was triggered by a multi-month

    triangle pattern breakout (see both daily and intraday charts).

    Downside pressure remains heavy from inter-market weakness across

    related risk proxies such as EUR/USD and equity markets. Moreover, there

    is still heightened risk for a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly close

    beneath $1600 and $1530 (swing low).

    A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this

    benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze

    lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000 (12-year channelfloor/see

    top chart insert).

    Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached

    a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold

    positions. This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would

    ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity into summer 2012.

    Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

    Special ReportGolds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 VIDEO

    Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG&CNBCREPORTS)

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    SHORT 2: 1705, Obj: 1530, 1300, Stop: 1750

    GOLD

    Gold daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    200-DMABROKEN

    FIRST TIMEIN 3 YEARS!

    DEMARK SIGNALWARNED OF GOLDSOVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS

    $1800

    $1600

    DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 / $1300UPSIDE: $1670/ $1760 / $1800GOLD KEY LEVELS

    $1532

    DOUBLETOP

    $1760

    CONFIRMATIONBENEATH $1532TARGETS $1300

    CYCLE FAVOURS DECLINEINTO $1300 & $1040-00

    TRENDCHANNEL

    (12 YEARS)

    GOLD (60 MIN)

    SHARP

    DECLINEWEAK

    RECOVERY

    PATTERNBREAKOUT

    Gold intraday chart, with COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

    http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf
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    Weak bounce remains capped beneath $30.0000.

    Silvers weak recovery from oversold conditions remains capped beneath

    key support at $30.0000. Only a sustained close below here would trigger a

    test of the previous swing low at $26.0700.

    Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the

    major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces

    volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to

    recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.

    Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

    multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%

    Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-

    term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual

    resumption higher.

    Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio (see top chart insert) which has

    now accelerated higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the

    next few weeks. This also helps explain recent divergences between gold

    and silver.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    SHORT 2: 34.1300, Obj: 26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 34.1300

    SILVER

    Spot Silver hourly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)

    DEMARKSELL SIGNALS

    Silver (Daily)

    200 DMA(36.7945)

    13 YEAR LEVEL

    UNWINDING 70%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

    Gold/Silver"Mint" Ratio

    SILVER (60 MIN)

    RANGEBREAKOUT

    WEAKRECOVERY

    PSYCHOLOGICAL(30.0000)

    Spot Silver daily chart with Silver/Gold ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

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    moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

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    www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]

    MIG [email protected]

    14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 NeuchtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00

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