2011 11 07 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

8/3/2019 2011 11 07 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

MA

S-TERMMULTI-DAY

L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/POSITION

ENTRYLEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD Sell Stop 3 1.3655 1.3520/1.3140/1.2860 1.3840GBP/USD Buy limit 3 1.5840 1.5940/1.6153/1.6400 1.5740USD/JPY LONG 3 78.20 80.05/82.00/83.30 (Entered 01/11/2011) 77.70USD/CHF SHORT 3 0.9015 0.8900/0.8550/0.8250 (Entered 07/11/2011) 0.9130USD/CAD Buy Stop 3 1.0250 1.0360/1.0480/1.0670 1.0050AUD/USD SHORT 2 1.0570 1.0010/0.9710 (Entered 01/11/2011) 1.0470GBP/JPY Buy limit 3 122.70 124.10/126.00/127.32 121.30EUR/JPY Sell stop 3 106.45 105.45/104.00/100.76 107.50EUR/GBP Look to sell.EUR/CHF Sell stop 3 1.2130 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1.2230GOLD Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.SILVER SHORT 3 34.1300 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 35.6880

DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT07 November, 2011

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry

point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is

published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.


2/15

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Resuming sharp reversal into 1.3140.

EUR/USD is resuming its sharp reversal from key overhead resistance

(primarily an important 2 year trend-line). The dramatic move has confirmed

the emotionally charged bull-trap that we had anticipated, which has been

driven by recent positive EU News.

Key support is now holding at 1.3653 (18th Oct low). A sustained

confirmation beneath here will unlock further downside scope into 1.3146

(Oct swing low) and that all-important psychological level at 1.3000.

Further pressure is also weighing from broad risk-related proxies. The euro

currently shares a high correlation of 0.85% with the S&P500 which is now

falling sharply from its recent multi-week highs.

Inversely, USD Index has turned back higher above its long-term 200-day

MA. The bulls are likely to recapture the recent 6-month highs near 80.

Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are holding steady around their recent

spike highs (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely

remain strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic

oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

Special Report:EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO

MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.

MIG Bank US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Sell Stop 3: 1.3655, Objs:1.3520/1.3140/1.2860, Stop: 1.3840

EUR/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

200-DMA(1.4104)

BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED

BREAKOUTS

UPTREND(2 YEARS)

EUR/USD (Daily)

BREAKOUTZONE

(1.4000)

SHARP REVERSALAT KEY RESISTANCE

TARGETS 1.3000 & 1.2870

+

-

USD INDEX(4 YEARS)

DEMARKBUY SIGNAL

+27% +19%

TRIGGER(15000)

COT LIQUIDITY

+10%SO FAR

3 STD ABOVEONE YEARAVERAGE

EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS

913

USD INDEX

200-DMA(75.72)

DEMARKBUY SIGNALS

BREAKOUT ZONE

EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

6 MONTHHIGH

KEY SUPPORT(73.50-73.00)
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf


3/15

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Support expected close to 1.5853.

A break back over the 1.6167 high would lead us to remove the strategy

below from the report.

GBP/USD continues to consolidate in what is currently viewed as a larger

corrective phase with scope for further swing lower to test the 1.5853 region,

where a higher low is favoured to form for a fresh swing back towards

1.6167.

We remain wary of the general range bound nature of this market in the

medium-term but note that short-term structure is suggestive of further

gains, back towards 1.6167.

While above 1.5632 further strength is favoured. However, if this region

fails to contain the current corrective phase, then the bias will turn negativeagain.

The view still remains that the large devaluation of GBP versus the USD has

already taken place, thus GBP/USD is unlikley to participate fully in any

further USD strengthening that may take place. Instead GBP/USD is

favoured to remain stronger than most.


Buy limit 3 at 1.5840, Objs: 1.5940/1.6153/1.6400, Stop: 1.5740.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


4/15

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USD/JPY intervention favours test of 80.00.

Raised stop to 77.70. USD/JPYs latest intervention by the BOJ favours a

test of that all-important psychological level at 80.00. This ma rks the BOJs

third time to officially intervene in the rate this year, after it carved out yetanother new post WWII record low at 75.35.

Multiple DeMark buy signals were also triggered within the multi-week base

pattern which has now broken higher (as had been expected by our low

volatility measures).

The medium/long-term view is more bullish, favouring a sustained move

above our initial upside trigger level at 80.00, near 80.24 (post BOJ

intervention II high).

Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term

technical bias, including prior monthly DeMark exhaustion signals, within

the ending diagonal pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.

Only a sustained weekly close below 76.25 will lead to a reassessment of

the view and extend temporary weakness into 74.55.

Please select the link below to review our MIG Bank webinar on USD/JPY.

This is a featured update to our previousSpecial Report

USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change

- What do long-term cycles tell us about the future of USD-JPY?

- How do event shocks and Central B ank Interventions impact the market?

- Safe-Haven Flows: A wave of change.

- High-Probability Trading Strategies.


LONG 3 at 78.20, Objs: 80.05/82.00/83.30, Stop: 77.70


USD/JPY

USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

83.30

USD/JPY(Daily1 YEAR)

QUAKE

SHOCK!

POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)

POSTG7

MOVE (I)HIGH

82.00

PIR II

80.24

POSTBOJ

MOVE (II)HIGH

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEADOF POST WWII LOW (75.35)

POSTBOJ

MOVE (III)HIGH

MONTHLY DEMARKBUYSIGNAL

USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)

ENDINGDIAGONAL

PATTERNBREAKOUT

TARGET(85-79)
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-03-29_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_trade-alert-update-on-USDJPY.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-03-29_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_trade-alert-update-on-USDJPY.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-03-29_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_trade-alert-update-on-USDJPY.pdfhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-03-29_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_trade-alert-update-on-USDJPY.pdf


5/15

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Continues higher for a re-test of the 61.8% retrace.

USD/CHF has broken back over the prior 0.8960 high, seen in the daily

timeframe. This now increases the probability of a re-test of the 61.8%

retrace of the 0.9316-0.8568 fall near 0.9000. A lower high would still be

expected to form in this region.

Medium-term structure is suggestive of a re-test of the zone close to 0.8242

ahead of a possible return to 0.9316. However, should EUR/CHF reach the

1.2000 level again, then movement in USD/CHF may be effected by the

efforts of the SNB to maintain the floor in EUR/CHF. Back under 0.7712 is

required to change the medium-term bullish bias.

A sustained push back over 0.9083 will immediately open up a return

towards the recent high at 0.9316.

Safe haven flows may yet intensify into the Swiss Franc as Italian

government bond yields push higher despite last weeks ECB rate cut. See

our EUR/CHF page for more on this.


Short 3 at 0.9015, Objs: 0.8900/0.8550/0.8250, Stop: 0.9130.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


USD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


6/15

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Bulls hold gains above psychological 1.0000 level.

USD/CADs short-term price activity remains positive, following the sharp

bullish reversal from the psychological 1.0000 level (prior trading range).

Positive momentum needs to push above 1.0264 and 1.0400 to rebuild the

potential major upside reversal higher above the old resistance level at

1.0673 (August high & Congestion zone).

Only a sustained close beneath here will unlock bearish setbacks into the

long-term 200-day MA at 0.9817 and 0.9726 (31st

Aug low).

A strong directional confirmation above here will open a much larger

recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the

rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.

EUR/CAD is extending above its 200-day MA, within a large multi-monthtrading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June swing high),

which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern.

CHF/CAD is retesting its support nearby the 200-day MA at 1.1314,

following the dramatic price slide lower (triggered by the SNB intervention).

The cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.


Buy Stop 3: 1.0250, Objs:1.0360/1.0480/1.0670, Stop: 1.0050Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

USD/CAD

USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD (Weekly)

CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680

OPENS LARGERRECOVERY

DEMARKBUY SIGNAL

USD/CAD (Daily)

August High(1.0673)

200-DMA(0.9817)

200-DMA(1.3841)

MAJOR RESISTANCE

50%(1.3570)

61.8%(1.3379)

EUR/CAD (Daily)

REVERSALPATTERN

CHF/CAD (Daily)

200-DMA(1.1314)

50%(1.1488)

61.8%(1.0893)


7/15

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Sharp setbacks weigh.

Lowered stop to 1.0470. AUD/USDs sharp setbacks continue to weigh. The

move was triggered from key resistance at 1.0765 (01st Sept high) and is

now holding beneath the 200-day MA (1.0415).

A sustained move below here is likely to mount downside pressure on the

rates multi-year uptrend.

The bears need to confirm beneath 1.0322 (26th

Oct low) and 1.0188 (18th

Oct low). A break here will unlock sharp setbacks into 1.0000.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains stable against the New Zealand dollar.

The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds

beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320 and 1.2100.

The Aussie dollar has reversed gains against the Japanese yen and is now

trading back below the long-term 200-day MA which is currently at 83.11.

Near-term support continues to hold at 77.63 (18th

Oct low). A break here

will resume downside scope into 76.70 and signal further unwinding of risk

appetite.


SHORT 2: 1.0570, Obj: 1.0010/0.9710, Stop: 1.0470

AUD/USD


AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

200-DMACAPSBEARMKT

AUD/NZD(Daily)

KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100

200-DMA

(83.12)

13

38.2%(76.70)

61.8%(68.47)

50%(72.58)

AUD/JPY(Daily)

DEMARKSELL SIGNAL

RESUMPTION OF

BREAKDOWNADDS TORISK AVERSION

AUD/USD(Weekly)

38.2%

(0.9144)

50%(0.8546)

61.8%(0.7947)

3 YEARUPTRENDISUNDER

PRESSURE

STRUCTURALLEVEL

KEYZONE

AUD/USD(1 YEAR)

DEMARKSELLSIGNALS

200-DMA(1.0415)


8/15

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Consolidates within a flag structure.

GBP/JPY continues to consolidate within the confines of a falling hourly

channel, potentially forming a flag structure. Given the nature of the rise last

week, which was triggered by a series of clustered stops, there remains an

expectation of a return to the 122.38/65 region, ahead of further strength.

Bigger picture a rise towards 129.00/130.00 is possible, given the daily

structure present since 116.84. A push back under 121.39 is needed to

negate this positive structure.

Assuming that further short-term strength can be realised, a lower high

would be anticipated close to 129.00, near the 200 day moving average

which is currently at 128.79. Thus the region between 129.00 and 130.00

would be attractive for renewed short positioning. In the meantime, a higher

low may form close to the old 122.38/65 ceiling, with a short-term swing

back into the 129.00-130.00 region in mind.


Buy limit 3 at 122.70, Objs: 124.10/126.00/127.32, Stop: 121.30

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


9/15

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Break under 106.50 opens up a return towards 104.75.

A push back over 108.25 will lead us to remove the strategy below from the

Daily Technical Report.

EUR/JPY appears to be forming a corrective structure in the hourlytimeframe, with scope now for a return to and break under 106.50. This

would then open up a return to 104.75 and potentially lower. If a push under

106.50 can be realised, this would warn of a larger corrective structure off

the recent 111.60 high.

An earlier push back over 108.25 will however be suggestive of a larger

recovery higher from 104.75, with a return to 111.60 then possible.

Should the region near 112.50 be met a lower high would be favoured to

form in that region, close to the 200 day moving average, currently at112.54.

A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the outlook

bullish.


Sell stop 3 at 106.45, Objs: 105.45/104.00/100.76, Stop: 107.50

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY


10/15

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A break under 0.8530/31 will weaken longer-term outlook.

EUR/GBP has seen a break lower again today to test long-term trend-line

resistance from 0.8068. A push under 0.8548 is expected which will

immediately target the 0.8530/31 double bottom that we have discussed in

recent reports. A sustained break under 0.8530 will weaken the longer-term

outlook considerably, ending the general range bound trade that we have

witnessed thus far. Scope would then be seen for a return back down to

0.8068, over time. In fact, should stresses in the Euro Zone intensify then it

is possible that Sterling may gain safe haven status, with scope then for a

return to 0.8068 over coming weeks.

Failure to break the floor of the medium-term range will warn of a return

back towards 0.8831 where short positioning would become attractive

again.

A move back over 0.8960 is required to neutralise our mild bearish bias, in a

generally rangebound environment.


Look to sell if a break under 0.8530 can be realised.

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP



11/15

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Approaches the 1.2500 region where resistance is expected.

EUR/CHF has gained a minor degree of support following the 25 basis point

rate cut by the ECB. However, we note today, that Italian 10 year yields are

trading above 6.60% for the first time since 1997. If this move can be

maintained over the coming days, the pressures in the Euro zone are likely

to intensify considerably, as it will be viewed that the ECB is essentially

powerless to contain the upside pressure on Italian government bond yields.

This is likely to lead to a renewed desire for a safe haven with downside

pressure returning to EUR/CHF.

Should a re-test of the 1.2000 region take place with a fall under 1.1973 also

following, this would warn of the end of the recovery seen since 1.0075,

increasing the probability of a return to this level.

In any case, strong resistance is anticipated should this rate reach the

1.2500 zone. The recent failure to maintain trade above the 50 week

moving average is also noted.

Time will tell whether or not the SNB will be able to hold back the possible

flow of funds into Swiss Francs that may occur if further stresses lead to yet

higher yields in Italian government bonds.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.

EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP



12/15

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Risk of a larger decline beneath $1530.

Gold remains bearish after its dramatic 20% price fall, which helped confirm

the extreme overbought conditions (marked by DeMark indicators). This

also timed a key cycle peak, ahead of that all-important $2000 glass-ceiling.

Most concerning is that speculative (net long) flows have recently breached

a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold

positions.

In price terms, Golds latest 20% bearish slide is still worth less than the

largest average drawdown measured since the start of the yellow metals

long-term bull market in 1999.

There is heightened risk of a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly

close beneath $1600 and $1554-30 (200-day MA/swing low), which has notbeen breached in 3 years!

A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this

benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze

lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still

offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.

Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

Special ReportGolds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 VIDEO

Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG&CNBCREPORTS)


Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.

GOLD

Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP


TRENDCHANNEL(12 YEARS)

I

RISK ZONE III

CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530

UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINEINTO $1300 & $1040-1000

26%

34%

20%SO FAR

25%

II

COT NET LONGSPECULATORPOSITIONS

OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG

GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT

IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS

200-DMANOT BROKENIN 3 YEARS!

DEMARK SIGNALWARNED OF GOLDSOVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS

BREAKOUT

$1704

$1600

DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844

GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS

$1532

DOUBLETOP

$1760
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf


13/15

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Key support at $26.0700.

Silvers latest price capitulation is a painful reminder to the investment

community that lightning can strike twice. Note, this marks the second time

silver has crashed, following its 30% fall last April.

The move was triggered following a DeMark exhaustion sell signal and

has now wiped out almost 50% of si lvers prior gains (taken from Silvers all-

time high at 49.7900) which was last seen in 1980.

Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This

allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed

buying interest.

Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%

Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-

term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual

resumption higher.

Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated

higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.


SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 35.6880

SILVER

Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver mint ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP


BULLMARKET

FROM1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

13

38.2%(32.3135)

50%(26.9150)

61.8%

(21.5165)

I

II

OVER 30YEAR BASE PATTERN

Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARKSELL SIGNAL

13 YEAR LEVEL

UNWINDING 67%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio

KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)

DEMARKSELL SIGNALS

Silver (Daily)

200 DMA(36.5125)


14/15

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Limitation of liability

MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,

including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material InterestsMIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or

have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will bemoved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

DISCLAIMERNo information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to

buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act

of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal

use and for informational purposes only and are sub ject to change without notice. MIG BANK

makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions

expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes

financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be

made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before

making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no

guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the

content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

LEGALTERMS


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www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]

MIG [email protected]

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Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]

CONTACT

Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]
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Documents

2011 11 07 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report