2011 11 14 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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  • 8/3/2019 2011 11 14 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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    MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland

    Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

    Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

    WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

    MA

    S-TERMMULTI-DAY

    L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

    STRATEGY/POSITION

    ENTRYLEVEL

    OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

    EUR/USD Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.GBP/USD LONG 3 1.6000 All three objectives at 1.6200. (Entered on 14/11/11) 1.5900USD/JPY Await New Buy Trade Setup.USD/CHF Possibly looking to sell higherUSD/CAD LONG 3 1.0250 1.0360/1.0480/1.0670 (Entered on 10/11/2011) 1.0050AUD/USD SHORT 2 1.0570 1.0010/0.9710 (Entered 01/11/2011) 1.0470GBP/JPY LONG 3 122.70 124.10/126.00/127.32 (Entered on 14/11/11) 121.30EUR/JPY Possibly looking to re-sell.EUR/GBP SHORT 3 0.8555 0.8455/0.8285/0.8068 (Entered 11/11/2011) 0.8655EUR/CHF Sell stop 3 1.2130 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1.2230GOLD Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.SILVER SHORT 3 34.1300 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 35.6880

    DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT14 November, 2011

    Ron William, CMT, MSTA

    Bijoy Kar, CFA

    Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been h it the stop will be moved to the entry

    point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is

    published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

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    Resuming sharp reversal into 1.3140.

    EUR/USD is resuming its sharp reversal from key overhead resistance

    (primarily an important 2 year trend-line).

    The bearish move is now being further anchored down by heightened

    European soverign debt risk after Italian Govt. yields launched above 7%.

    The recent break under 1.3653 (18th Oct low) unlocks further downside

    scope into 1.3146 (Oct swing low) and psychological level at 1.3000.

    Further pressure is also weighing from broad risk-related proxies. The euro

    currently shares a high correlation of 0.85% with the S&P500 which is now

    falling sharply from its recent multi-week highs.

    Inversely, USD Index has turned back higher above its long-term 200-day

    MA. The bulls are likely to recapture the recent 9-month highs near 80.

    Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are holding steady around their recent

    spike highs (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely

    remain strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic

    oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

    Special Report:EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO

    MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Exited at 1.3655. Achieved PT1 Objective.

    EUR/USD

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    EUR/USD

    EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

    200-DMA(1.4104)

    BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED

    BREAKOUTS

    UPTREND(2 YEARS)

    EUR/USD (Daily)

    BREAKOUTZONE

    (1.4000)

    SHARP REVERSALAT KEY RESISTANCE

    TARGETS 1.3000 & 1.2870

    +

    -

    USD INDEX(4 YEARS)

    DEMARKBUY SIGNAL

    +27% +19%

    TRIGGER(15000)

    COT LIQUIDITY

    +10%SO FAR

    3 STD ABOVEONE YEARAVERAGE

    EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS

    KEY SUPPORT(73.50-73.00)

    913

    USD INDEX

    200-DMA(75.72)

    DEMARKBUY SIGNALS

    BREAKOUT ZONE

    EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

    9 MONTHHIGH

    http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf
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    Support near 1.5853 suggests a return to 1.6200.

    Long strategy raised to 1.6000, with all three objectives at 1.6200. This was

    communicated to clients via e-mail and through the MT4 platform.

    GBP/USD has potentially completed a corrective phase off the recent

    1.6167 high, with scope now for a return to 1.6167 ahead of a test of

    1.6200, where a lower high may form. However, should the 1.6200 region

    be met, a degree of resistance may be encountered, for a further pullback.

    This year has seen a generally range bound environment, with a return to

    the highs of the annual range possible, near 1.6618/1.6747. Our bias

    remains positive due to the near-term bullish structure that is in place.

    While above 1.5632 further strength is favoured. However, if this region

    fails to contain the current corrective phase, then the bias will turn negativeagain.

    Sterling is expected to stay stronger then most, should the US Dollar enter

    into a strengthening phase.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Long 3 at 1.6000, All three objectives at 1.6200, Stop: 1.5900.

    GBP/USD

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Probability now favours retracement to pre-intervention levels.

    USD/JPY is continuing to edge lower, with the growing probability of another

    price retracement back to pre-intervention levels (PIR) and potentially even

    a new post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL).

    Furthermore, sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that

    USD/JPY buying pressure remains overcrowded as everyone in the market

    continues to try and be the first to call the market bottom.

    This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through

    psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move

    would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,

    which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.

    The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a

    major long-term 40 year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection

    points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained

    move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

    Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term

    technical bias, including prior monthly DeMark exhaustion signals, within

    the ending diagonal pattern, launhcing a powerful recovery into 91.00.

    Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.

    Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal

    Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup.

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426

    USD/JPY

    USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    83.30

    USD/JPY(Daily1 YEAR)

    QUAKE

    SHOCK!

    POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)

    POSTG7

    MOVE (I)HIGH

    82.00

    PIR II

    80.24

    POSTBOJ

    MOVE (II)HIGH

    DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEADOF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)

    POSTBOJ

    MOVE (III)HIGH

    MONTHLY DEMARKBUYSIGNAL

    USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)

    ENDINGDIAGONAL

    PATTERNBREAKOUT

    TARGET(85-79)

    http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdfhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdf
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    Under 0.8960 will warn of the end to the corrective phase.

    Sell strategy at 0.9100 removed.

    USD/CHF may have completed a symmetrical correction from the low at

    0.8568, after reaching 0.9151 in recent trade. We now wait to see if the

    0.9151 high can contain price on the upside.

    In particular we look to see if a break under 0.8923 can be realised as this

    would increase the probability of a return to weakness.

    While below 0.9316, medium-term structure is suggestive of a re-test of the

    zone close to 0.8242, ahead of a possible return to 0.9316. However, we

    are mindful of the effect a return to 1.2000 in EUR/CHF may have in

    USD/CHF. Back under 0.7712 is required to change the medium-term

    bullish bias.

    As Italian government bond yields have eased away from the highs, this

    takes the pressure off the Swiss Franc as a safe haven, for now.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Sell strategy removed for now. Possibly looking to sell higher.

    USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    USD/CHF

    USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Bulls hold gains above psychological 1.0000 level.

    USD/CADs short-term price activity remains positive, following the sharp

    bullish reversal from the psychological 1.0000 level (prior trading range).

    Positive momentum needs to push above 1.0264 and 1.0400 to rebuild the

    potential major upside reversal higher above the old resistance level at

    1.0673 (August high & Congestion zone).

    A strong directional confirmation above here will open a much larger

    recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the

    rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.

    Only a sustained close beneath parity will unlock bearish setbacks into the

    long-term 200-day MA at 0.9823 and 0.9726 (31st Aug low).

    EUR/CAD is extending above its 200-day MA, within a large multi-month

    trading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June swing high),

    which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern.

    CHF/CAD is retesting its support nearby the 200-day MA at 1.1314,

    following the dramatic price slide lower (triggered by the SNB intervention).

    The cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Long 3: 1.0250, Objs:1.0360/1.0480/1.0670, Stop: 1.0050Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    USD/CAD

    USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    USD/CAD (Weekly)

    CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680

    OPENSLARGER

    DEMARKBUY SIGNAL

    USD/CAD (Daily)

    August High(1.0673)

    200-DMA(0.9823)

    200-DMA(1.3841)

    MAJOR RESISTANCE

    50%(1.3570)

    61.8%(1.3379)

    EUR/CAD (Daily)

    REVERSALPATTERN

    CHF/CAD (Daily)

    200-DMA1.1314

    50%(1.1488)

    61.8%(1.0893)

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Sharp setbacks weigh.

    AUD/USDs sharp setbacks continue to weigh. The move was triggered

    from key resistance at 1.0765 (01st Sept high) and is now holding beneath

    the 200-day MA (1.0418).

    A sustained move below here is likely to mount downside pressure on the

    rates multi-year uptrend.

    Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains stable against the New Zealand dollar.

    The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds

    beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320 and 1.2100.

    The Aussie dollar has reversed gains against the Japanese yen and is now

    trading back below the long-term 200-day MA which is currently at 83.11.

    Near-term support continues to hold at 77.63 (18th Oct low). A break here

    will resume downside scope into 76.70 and signal further unwinding of risk

    appetite.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    SHORT 2: 1.0570, Obj: 1.0010/0.9710, Stop: 1.0470

    AUD/USD

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    200-DMACAPSBEARMKT

    AUD/NZD(Daily)

    KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100

    200-DMA

    (83.12)

    13

    38.2%(76.70)

    61.8%

    (68.47)

    50%(72.58)

    AUD/JPY(Daily)

    DEMARKSELL SIGNAL

    RESUMPTION OF

    BREAKDOWNADDS TO

    RISK AVERSION

    AUD/USD(Weekly)

    38.2%(0.9144)

    50%(0.8546)

    61.8%(0.7947)

    3 YEARUPTRENDISUNDER

    PRESSURE

    STRUCTURALLEVEL

    KEYZONE

    AUD/USD(1 YEAR)

    DEMARKSELLSIGNALS

    200-DMA(1.0418)

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Continues to trade close to an area of potential support.

    GBP/JPY continues to trade close to the 122.38/65 platform. This now

    potentially completes the corrective structure that has been witnessed since

    127.32, with support anticipated.

    Now that the surge higher from the end of October has been unwound,

    there is scope for a higher low to form, for a fresh swing to the upside. It is

    this unwinding that we have been expecting ahead of any potential fresh

    strength.

    Bigger picture a rise towards 129.00/130.00 is possible, given the daily

    structure present since 116.84. A push back under 121.39 is needed to

    negate this positive structure.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Long 3 at 122.70, Objs: 124.10/126.00/127.32, Stop: 121.30

    GBP/JPY

    GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Return to 104.73 favoured.

    Remainder of short position stopped at entry.

    EUR/JPY has returned to test the old hourly channel as resistance, after

    peaking at formed a corrective structure in the hourly timeframe and hassubsequently broken under 106.50. This now triggers the bearish flag that

    we had seen in the daily timeframe, warning of further losses towards

    104.00 and possibly lower.

    Yesterday saw support close to the 61.8% retrace of the 100.76 111.60

    rise, after meeting 104.73. From there a test of the region close to the

    38.2% retrace of the 108.25 104.73 fall has already taken place. Failure

    to hold under this 38.2% retrace will warn of a minimum return to the 106.50

    region.

    Structure present since 108.25 also suggests scope for a further leg lower

    back towards 100.76 if a sustained break under 104.75/3 can be achieved.

    A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the outlook

    bullish.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Possibly looking to re-sell.

    EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/JPY

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Lower high sought for fresh weakness.

    EUR/GBP has managed to find a footing back over daily trend line support

    that was broken last week. We wait to see if this push back higher can be

    maintained on a closing basis. Of stronger significance is the push out of

    the three month range seen last week, following the fall under 0.8530/31.

    This now warns of a larger breakout to the downside to target

    0.8285/0.8068. Such a move will be assisted by the perception of Sterling

    as a safe haven, assuming the yields of Italian government bonds can stay

    above 6.00%

    In the near-term, a break back over 0.8652 is required to neutralise the

    outlook once again. In the meantime, a lower high is sought for a further

    extension lower.

    Failure to hold under the old double bottom and trend-line will warn of a

    false break lower, with a danger that trade returns back into the old range.

    Scope is seen for a near-term return to 0.8486.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Short 3 at 0.8555, Objs: 0.8455/0.8285/0.8068, Stop: 0.8655

    EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/GBP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Continued resistance expected close to 1.2500.

    EUR/CHF has remained strong, particularly in light of the movement in

    Italian government bond markets, where 10 year yields are maintaining a

    foothold over 6.00%. Over time, this may lead to a renewed desire for a

    safe haven, with downside pressure returning to EUR/CHF.

    Should a re-test of the 1.2000 region take place with a fall under 1.1973 also

    following, this would warn of the end of the recovery seen since 1.0075,

    increasing the probability of a return to this level.

    In any case, strong resistance is anticipated should this rate reach the

    1.2500 zone. The recent failure to maintain trade above the 50 week

    moving average is also noted.

    It remains to be seen if the SNB will be able to hold back the possible flow of

    funds into Swiss Francs, that may occur, if further stresses lead to yet

    higher yields in Italian government bonds.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND

    Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.

    EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/CHF

    EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Positive for the short-term.

    Gold remains fragile after its dramatic 20% price fall, which helped confirm

    the extreme overbought conditions (marked by DeMark indicators). This

    also timed a key cycle peak, ahead of that all-important $2000 glass-ceiling.

    However, short-term price activity is building constructively higher around

    key level at 1760. A sustained move above here would open moves into

    1844.

    Speculative (net long) flows remain a concern having recently breached a

    key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold

    positions.

    There is heightened risk of a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly

    close beneath $1600 and $1554-30 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not

    been breached in 3 years!

    A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this

    benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze

    lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still

    offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.

    Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

    Special ReportGolds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 VIDEO

    Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG&CNBCREPORTS)

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.

    GOLD

    Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    TRENDCHANNEL(12 YEARS)

    I

    RISK ZONE III

    CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINEINTO $1300 & $1040-1000

    26%

    34%

    20%SO FAR

    25%

    II

    COT NET LONGSPECULATORPOSITIONS

    OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG

    GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT

    IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS

    200-DMANOT BROKENIN 3 YEARS!

    DEMARK SIGNALWARNED OF GOLDSOVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS

    BREAKOUT

    $1704

    $1600

    DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844

    GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS

    $1532

    DOUBLETOP

    $1760

    http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf
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    Key support at $26.0700.

    Silver has developed a short-term recovery from its previous swing low at

    26.0700. However, macro price structure continues to focus on the

    downside risks, following the major sell-off in September.

    Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This

    allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed

    buying interest.

    Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

    multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%

    Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-

    term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual

    resumption higher.

    Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated

    higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 35.6880

    SILVER

    Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver mint ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    BULLMARKET

    FROM1999

    Silver Monthly (since 1980)

    13

    38.2%(32.3135)

    50%(26.9150)

    61.8%

    (21.5165)

    I

    II

    OVER 30YEAR BASE PATTERN

    Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARKSELL SIGNAL

    13 YEAR LEVEL

    UNWINDING 67%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

    Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio

    KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)

    DEMARKSELL SIGNALS

    Silver (Daily)

    200 DMA(36.5125)

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

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    www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]

    MIG [email protected]

    14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 NeuchtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00

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